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Thesis Notes The Costs of the Free Movement of Labor A Thesis Presented to The Faculty of The Cevro Institute In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts Maxime Renaud September 2019 "1 CONTENTS ! Introduction......................................................................................................................3! Methodology....................................................................................................................4! Crime rates.......................................................................................................................5! Economic Impacts..........................................................................................................22! Education........................................................................................................................34! Politics and voting patterns............................................................................................39! Conclusion......................................................................................................................45! Sources...........................................................................................................................47! "2 The costs of the free movement of labor The free movement of labor is one of the few topics left on which most economists, and increasingly many politicians, seem to agree. Even President Donald J. Trump, the ultimate "anti-immigrant" politician as far as the media is concerned, pushes for more immigration through legal means. Indeed, in February 2019, USA Today published an article entitled "Donald Trump says he wants to see more legal immigration to the U.S.1" referencing the President's latest remarks on the topic. Thus, the only discussion about immigration is not about if it is positive to the receiving nation, but on procedural details (ie legal vs. illegal immigration). This thesis aims to di$erentiate between abstract notions of "immigrants" and to distinguish di$erent ethnic or cultural groups and to study the costs of the free movement of labor. Economists do not appear to treat "immigrants" as blood and flesh human beings, but as an obscure category of people. As immigrants bring their own language, mentality, and way of life to their new host country, it appears unlikely that immigration has a positive impact in every possible setting. Some groups of migrants seem to use welfare programs at a much higher rate than native-born populations, work ethics di$ers often drastically, and cultural or religious background may determine the costs and benefits of migration. I will analyze available evidence from economic and non-economic literature in order to see whether the economic consensus breaks down when a broader perspective is considered. 1 Collins, Michael, and Alan Gomez. "'We Need People': Donald Trump Says He Wants to See More Legal Immigration in U.S." USA Today. February 06, 2019. Accessed March 20, 2019. https://eu.usatoday.com/story/ news/politics/2019/02/06/immigration-trump-says-he-wants-more-legal-migrants-u-s/2792732002/. "3 This thesis' hypothesis is that immigration may be either detrimental or beneficial to economic growth depending on whom migrates where. I will analyze which factors enhance the positive e$ects of migration and which ones can be responsible for negative outcomes. METHODOLOGY ! The methodology used in this short study is one first used by P.T. Bauer, and popularized by Thomas Sowell. Since there is no way to isolate the "immigration" variable in the study of economics (ie. one cannot precisely calculate Canada's economic growth from 1980 to 2000 without the immigration factor), both authors have studied the same cultural groups in di$erent countries and have assumed that the similarities between the same ethnic groups in completely di$erent settings (institutions, climate, etc.) should be attributed to their culture. This approach seems appropriate for a graduate thesis with the very humble aim of pointing out some costs of immigration. This thesis does not claim that cultural group x is superior or inferior to cultural group y in every possible setting. The only aim of this thesis is to point out various costs to immigration that are omitted by Keynesian and Free-marketeer economists alike. "4 CRIMES RATES In The Economics of Immigration: Market-Based Approaches, Social Science, and Public Policy, Brian Caplan states that immigrants have a lower crime rate than American citizens2. This may very well be true overall, but is not true of every single ethnic group. It is unclear why the vast majority of economists insist on putting every immigrant group in the same basket, instead of focusing on more successful ethnic or cultural groups and promoting the immigration of these groups. In the West, one of the most overrepresented groups in their crime rates are the Muslims. This may partly be caused by Muslims being much younger than Westerners in general, but a 2016 study in Denmark showed that Somali (hailing from an exclusively Muslim country) men were 26 times more likely to rape than Danish men, adjusted for age3. A January 2018 study in Germany showed that 90% of the rise in violent crimes could be attributed to young male migrants, who predominantly originate from Muslim countries4. Indeed, in 2017, studies had shown that approximately one fifth (20%) of the prison inmates in the United Kingdom were Muslims, despite them making up only 5% of the population in 2 Powell, Benjamin. The Economics of Immigration: Market-based Approaches, Social Science, and Public Policy. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015. 3 Murray, Douglas. The Strange Death of Europe: Immigration, Identity, Islam. London: Bloomsbury Continuum, 2018 p.251 4 Alkousaa, Riham. "Violent Crime Rises in Germany and Is Attributed to Refugees." Reuters. January 03, 2018. Accessed March 24, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-crime/violent-crime-rises- in-germany-and-is-attributed-to-refugees-idUSKBN1ES16J. "5 the U.K.5. In the United States, adherents of Islam make up close to 1% of the population, and yet are some 10% of the inmates6. The Telegraph estimated that Muslims made up only 8% of the French population, and yet were 70% of the inmate population7. However, the New York Times and The Economist estimated that Muslims made up to 10% of France's population, while reducing their Muslim inmates' population estimates in French prisons to "only" 60%8. It should be noted that the cost of having people imprisoned is not limited to the costs of building prisons, paying the guards, etc. which is made higher because of Muslim immigration. One should add the cost of having Western countries' limited policing resources redirected to an entire community or neighborhood, and away from the peaceful population, who therefore find themselves more likely to be victims of crimes. An analysis of immigrant groups' contributions towards Social Security and taxes cannot possibly take these costs into account, although the costs exist.! With the mass arrival of muslim migrants to Europe in recent years, Swedish crime rates have increased dramatically, with 298 people having been wounded from shootings in immigrant heavy Stockholm and Gothenburg between 2010 and 2015, whereas only 70 had been wounded from shootings in Helsinki, Oslo, and Copenhagen 5 Kassam, Raheem, and Nigel Farage. No Go Zones: How Sharia Law Is Coming to a Neighborhood near You. Washington, DC: Regnery Publishing, a Division of Salem Media Group, 2017 p.4 6 "Religious A&liation of Inmates in U.S. Prisons, 2011 | Statistic." Statista. Accessed March 24, 2019. https:// www.statista.com/statistics/234653/religious-a&liation-of-us-prisoners/. 7 Kassam, Raheem, and Nigel Farage. No Go Zones: How Sharia Law Is Coming to a Neighborhood near You. Washington, DC: Regnery Publishing, a Division of Salem Media Group, 2017 p.91 8 Ibid. p.91-94! "6 combined9. It should be noted that 298 people having been wounded may sound like very little to Americans in particular, but to Swedes this statistic represents a dramatic increase. Also, the combined population of Stockholm and Gothenburg is of approximately 1.5 million people, whereas Helsinki, Oslo, and Copenhagen have a total population of 3.3 million people10. These countries have a similar culture, and the main di$erentiating factor is that Sweden has accepted a much higher proportion of Muslim immigrants when compared to the other Nordic countries11. The safety costs of Muslim immigration in the West is also related to Muslim males' attitudes towards women. In Britain, a case of female genital mutilation is reported every hour, and The U.S.'s Center for Disease Control has estimated that half a million young women in the United States are vulnerable to female genital mutilation12. A new case of genital mutilation is reported every hour in the U.K.13 After opening up its borders to mass migration from Muslim countries on 2014-2015, Sweden's agency for crime prevention (BR') has reported that Sweden now has the second highest rate of reported rapes in the world, with half of those being committed 9 Sanandaji, Nima. Debunking Utopia Exposing the Myth of Nordic Socialism. Washington, D.C.: WND Books, 2016 loc 2136 10 Ibid loc 2136 11 loc 2136-2143 12 Mather, Mark, and Charlotte Fieldman-Jacobs. "Women and Girls at Risk of Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting in the United States." Population Reference Bureau. February 5, 2016. Accessed March 24, 2019. https:// www.prb.org/us-fgmc/.
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