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Policy Notes April 2021
THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY APRIL 2021 POLICY NOTES NO. 103 Deterring Iran in the Gray Zone: Insights from Four Decades of Conflict Michael Eisenstadt resident Joe Biden has stated that if Iran returns to full compliance with the 2015 nuclear accord, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the United States will too, as a starting point for P 1 follow-on talks about Iran’s missile program and regional activities. The path to a stronger, longer, and broader JCPOA, however, may be tortuous and prolonged; success is not foreordained. Indeed, since the Biden administration took office, Tehran has already resumed proxy attacks on U.S. intrests in Image: The Japanese-owned Iraq, and has accelerated work on its nuclear program while limiting access tanker Kokuka Courageous, by international inspectors, in order to (1) build leverage, (2) roll back U.S. showing damage from an sanctions, and (3) obtain other concessions. Washington needs to be able to Iranian limpet mine attack in the Gulf of Oman, June 2019. deter or counter such moves and deny Tehran advantage in ways that do not Screenshot: U.S. Central hinder renewed diplomacy. Moreover, even if talks succeed, U.S.-Iran ties will Command. MICHAEL EISENSTADT DETERRING IRAN IN THE GRAY ZONE likely remain tense for years to come. Deterrence engendered by more effectively deterring and will therefore remain a core component of U.S. policy countering Tehran’s regional activities may enhance toward Iran as a way to manage tensions, avoid Washington’s ability to deter a potential future escalation, and deny Tehran leverage, thus creating nuclear breakout by Iran. -
Iran, ISIS and U.S. Interests in an Unraveling Middle East
CONGRESSIONAL PROGRAM Diplomacy and Extremism: Iran, ISIS and U.S. Interests in an Unraveling Middle East May 26 – 31, 2015 Vol. 30, No. 3 Dan Glickman Vice President, The Aspen Institute Executive Director, Congressional Program Washington, DC This project was made possible by grants from the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, the Democracy Fund, the Holthues Trust, the Ford Foundation, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the Henry Luce Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Open Society Institute, and the Rockefeller Foundation. Copyright © 2015 by The Aspen Institute The Aspen Institute One Dupont Circle, nw Washington, DC 20036-1133 Published in the United States of America in 2015 by The Aspen Institute All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America ISBN: 0-89843-626-5 Pub #15/015 2038/CP/BK Table of Contents Rapporteur’s Summary ..................................................................1 Karim Sadjadpour Syria, Iraq, ISIS and the Region: Implications for the U.S. ......................................9 Ryan Crocker The Geopolitics of a Changing Energy Industry..............................................13 Amy Myers Jaffe What Should We Make of the JCPOA? ....................................................17 Ariel Levite America’s Middle East Challenge .........................................................23 Seyed Hossein Mousavian and Mehrdad Saberi Nuclear Deal, the Road to Peace between Iran and the West ....................................29 Seyed Hossein Mousavian Pluses and -
Open Letter Signatories
Full Name Role Institution Johanna Anderson Subject Librarian University of Gloucestershire Sarah Nicholas Acquisitions Librarian Cardiff Metropolitan University Peter Smith Research Support Librarian Sheffield Hallam University Rachel Bickley Senior Academic Liaison Librarian London Metropolitan University Oonagh Monaghan Academic Subject Librarian University of Lincoln Catherine McManamon Liaison Librarian University of Liverpool Paula Thompson Senior Library Assistant (HE) Carole Bee Academic Subject Librarian University of Lincoln Hope Deejune Williard Academic Subject Librarian University of Lincoln Barbara Band Library Consultant Freelance Ian Simpson Library Collection Development Manager Canterbury Christ Church University Caroline Cooke Head of Library & Student Services AECC University College Jenni Hughes David Parkes Rachel Sumner Senior Lecturer University of Gloucestershire Marie Lancaster Assistant Head Librarian Cardiff Metropolitan University Tracy Lester Library Processing Assistant University of portsmouth Katrina Hall Lead Library & Knowledge Services Manager Hywel Dda University Health Board Sarah Pittaway Head of Library Academic Engagement University of Worcester Leanne Wain Information and Records Coordinator IGEM Caroline Ball Academic Librarian University of Derby Dr Stephen Thornton Reader in Politics Cardiff University Michele Fry Annie Gleeson Librarian Churchill College, Cambridge Jill Boland Academic Librarian University of Derby YiWen Hon Librarian Deborah Varenna George Cronin Deputy Librarian (Biological -
Coping with Iran: Confrontation, Containment, Or Engagement?
THE ARTS This PDF document was made available from www.rand.org as a public CHILD POLICY service of the RAND Corporation. CIVIL JUSTICE EDUCATION Jump down to document ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT 6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING organization providing objective analysis and effective PUBLIC SAFETY solutions that address the challenges facing the public SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY and private sectors around the world. SUBSTANCE ABUSE TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE Support RAND WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore RAND National Security Research Division View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. This product is part of the RAND Corporation conference proceedings series. RAND conference proceedings present a collection of papers delivered at a conference. The papers herein have been commented on by the conference attendees and both the in- troduction and collection itself have been reviewed and approved by RAND Science and Technology. Coping with Iran Confrontation, Containment, or Engagement? A Conference Report James Dobbins, Sarah Harting, Dalia Dassa Kaye Approved for public release; distribution unlimited NATIONAL SECURITY RESEARCH DIVISION This research was conducted within the Intelligence Policy Center (IPC) of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD). -
MEI Focuses on New Media in the Middle East 3 Mapping the Arabic Blogosphere
VOLUME 60 · ISSUE 3 · SEPTEMBER 2009 INSIDE MEI Focuses on New Media in the Middle East 3 Mapping the Arabic Blogosphere 5 Interview with MEJ Author The reaction to the recent Iranian elections was wit- lights our Scholars’ appearances in the media, and Asher Kaufman nessed here in the West almost exclusively through publicizes key quotes from our guest speakers. One 7 Meet the Scholars: the Twitter feeds, Facebook profiles, YouTube videos, such speaker was Ammar Abdulhamid, a prominent Mehrzad Boroujerdi and Flickr photographs of Iranian protestors. This advocate for democratic reform in Syria. He spoke has focused attention on the role of new media in at MEI on July 21 about the differences and simi- 10 The George Camp Keiser the region’s public discourse, the theme of this fall’s larities between the democracy movement in Iran Library Bulletin. Despite an Iranian government crackdown and reform efforts in the Arab world. The Center for on media and the internet, protestors circumvented Pakistan Studies also has embraced new media by 12 The Middle East Journal censors using social networking tools such as those launching an online discussion forum, where mem- 12 Beyond the Beltway mentioned above to coordinate their meetings and bers can discuss reform and development proposals communicate with the outside world. The new media put forth by the Center. 14 Contributions phenomenon is not unique to Iran, but has spread across the Arab world as well. Drs. Bruce Ettling and Also included in this issue is an interview with Asher James Palfrey of Harvard University’s Berkman Cen- Kaufman, the author of an upcoming Middle East A scene from Tehran’s social media-fueled protests following Iran’s June 12 election (L), and satellite dishes perch atop the majority of homes in Sana‘a, Yemen (R). -
Of the Friends 5 Historical Society
The Journal of the Friends 5 Historical Society VOLUME 53 NUMBER 4 1975 FRIENDS' HISTORICAL SOCIETY FRIENDS HOUSE • EUSTON ROAD • LONDON NVVi 26] also obtainable at Friends Book Store : 302 Arch Street, Philadelphia 6, Pa., U.S.A. Contents PAGE Editorial 289 Alfred William Braithwaite (1901-1975) 292 "From Devonshire House to Endsleigh Gardens". Stephen Wilson 293 Sackcloth and Ashes, and other Signs and Wonders. Kenneth L. Carroll The Meeting House at Flamstead End, Hertfordshire. Violet A. Rowe 326 Joseph Sturge and the Crimean War. 2. The Founding of the Morning Star. Stephen Frick 335 "The Bellford Gazette", Darlington, 1826. R. S. Mortimer 359 Historical Research 364 Reports on Archives 366 Notes and Queries 372 385 Friends' Historical Society President: 1974 — Mary Hoxie Jones 1975 — John Ormerod Greenwood 1976 — David Murray- Rust Chairman: Elfrida Vipont Foulds Secretary: Edward H. Milligan Joint Christopher J. Holdswrorth and Editors: Russell S. Mortimer Annual Membership Subscriptions: (Personal) £2.00 ($5.00); (Institutional) £3.00 ($8.00). Subscriptions should be paid to the Secretary, Friends' Hist orical Society, c/o The Library, Friends House, Euston Road, London NWi 2BJ. Vol. 53 No. 4 1975 THE JOURNAL OF THE FRIENDS' HISTORICAL SOCIETY Publishing Office: Friends House, Euston Road, London NWi aBJ Communications should be addressed to the Editors at Friends House Editorial HIS number of the Journal completes volume 53, which began with the issue for 1972, and it contains the Ttitle-page and index covering the four years. During this period the following four supplements to the Journal have appeared, issued on subscription to members of the Historical Society and on general sale (see priced list of Supplements on page iii of the cover). -
The Science of Decision Making Across the Span of Human Activity
SMA White Paper: The Science of Decision Making across the Span of Human Activity May 2015 Contributing Authors: Maj Gen (Sel) Tim Fay (USAF/A3-5), Dr. Allison Astorino- Courtois (NSI), Mr. Cortez Cooper (RAND), Dr. Douglas C. Derrick (University Nebraska Omaha), Mr. Timothy Heath (RAND), Mr. Hunter Hustus (AF/A10), Dr. Gina Ligon (University Nebraska Omaha), Dr. Bonny Lin (RAND), Dr. Clark McCauley (Bryn Mawr College), Dr. Edward Robbins (AF/A10), Dr. Peter Suedfeld (University of British Columbia), Dr. Nicholas D. Wright (Carnegie) Editors: Drs. Nicholas D. Wright (Carnegie) and Allison Astorino-Courtois (NSI) Copy Editor: Ms. Meg Egan (Joint Staff, J3) A Strategic Multi-Layer (SMA) Periodic Publication This white paper represents the views and opinions of the contributing authors. This white paper does not represent official USG policy or positions. DISTRIBUTION A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Table of Contents Foreword: Operational Perspective - What Operators Need to Know ...... 3 Preface ............................................................................................................................. 4 Executive Summary & Introduction ....................................................................... 5 Part I: Process Influences: Internal and External Dynamics that Shape Decision Making ........................................................................................................... 8 1: Neurobiological and Emotional Influences: a realistic organic account of human decision making -
Speaker Biographies
UNITED STATES CENTRAL COMMAND, U.S. ARMY DIRECTED STUDIES OFFICE & THE SABAN CENTER FOR MIDDLE EAST POLICY AT THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION Partnership, Strength and Presence: Converging Regional Interests and Opportunities in the Gulf SPEAKER BIOGRAPHIES RAAD ALKADIRI Raad Alkadiri is a Partner and Head of PFC Global Risk. A country risk specialist, Alkadiri leads a team that focuses on the political, economic and sectoral factors that influence decision-making in oil and gas producing states, including the Middle East and Africa. He also leads PFC Energy's Iraq Advisory Service, a retainer providing in-depth analysis of Iraq's ongoing political developments and its emerging business environment. In 2003-2004, Alkadiri spent 10 months in Baghdad as the Policy Advisor and Assistant Private Secretary to the UK Special Representatives to Iraq. He was subsequently retained by the Iraq Director at the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office as an informal policy advisor before being appointed Senior Policy Advisor to Her Majesty's Ambassador in Baghdad from 2006-2007. Prior to joining PFC Energy in 1998, Alkadiri was the Middle East Analyst and Deputy Managing Editor at the U.K-based consultancy Oxford Analytica. From 1990 to 1991, he was a teaching fellow of Politics at the University of St. Andrews, and from 2000-2001 he was an Associate Professor at the School of Advanced International Studies, John Hopkins University. Alkadiri holds a D.Phil. in International Relations from St. Antony's College, Oxford University, and an M.A. from the University of St. Andrews. 1 JOHN ALLEN Lieutenant General John R. -
DOCUMENT RESUME ED 378 898 HE 028 049 TITLE Universities In
DOCUMENT RESUME ED 378 898 HE 028 049 TITLE Universities in the Twenty-First Century: A Lecture Series. INSTITUTION Council for Industry and Higher Education (United Kingdom).; National Commission on Education, London (England). SPONS AGENCY Paul Hamlyn Foundation (United Kingdom). REPORT NO ISBN-0-9523114-0-2 PUB DATE Mar 94 NOTE 143p.; These papers were presented in a spring 1993 lecture series on the future of British higher education. PUB TYPE Books (010) Collected Works General (020) EDRS PRICE MF01/PC06 Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS College Role; Comparative Education; Creativity; *Educational Change; Educational Trends; Education Work Relationship; Foreign Countries; *Futures (of Society); *Higher Education; Innovation; Institutional Mission; Labor Force; Research Universities; Scholarship; School Community Relationship; *Universities IDENTIFIERS Industry Needs; *Twenty First Century; *United Kingdom ABSTRACT This volume presents six lectures on the future of universities in the 21st century, and how they can best meet the future economic and social needs of the United Kingdom. "The Idea of a University?" (Stewart Sutherland) reviews some dominantimages of university and concludes that university educated individuals should be better equipped to play a wide variety of public roles. "One Industrialist's Views" (Graham Day) reviews post graduation employment, admissions standards, customer satisfaction, the teaching research relationship, and institutional management. "The Research Mission and Research Manpower" (David Phillips) reflects on the emergence of the research mission in universities, characterizes diverse university funding sources, describes the relationship between universities and their funders, and looks at the need for long-term planning in research workforce development. "University 2050: The Organisation of Creativity and Innovation" (Hans Van Ginkel) focu.es on the up-scaling of society and the recent development of a knowledge-intensive society. -
The Future of Iran
The Future of Iran Judicial Reform and Transitional Justice Workshop: 14th – 15th May 2012 Legatum Institute, London PROGRAMME Monday, May 14th Judicial Reform 9:00 – 9:15 Tea and coffee 9:15 – 9:30 Welcome by Anne Applebaum, Director of Political Studies, the Legatum Institute and Karim Sadjadpour, The Carnegie Endowment 9:30 – 13:00 The legal framework Discussion leaders: Karim Lahidji, International Federation for Human Rights and Iranian League for the Defence of Human Rights, Hamid Sabi, Sabi & Associates law firm, and Julio Faundez, University of Warwick (Tea and coffee break at 11:00) 13:00 – 14:00 Lunch in the cafe 14:00 – 17:00 The judges Discussion leaders: Mehrangiz Kar, Brown University, Nargess Tavassolian, SOAS, Adam Łazowski, University of Westminster (Tea and coffee break at 15:15) 19:00 Drinks and dinner Tuesday, May 15th Transitional Justice 9:00 – 9:15 Tea and coffee 9:15 – 12:30 Transitional justice before transition Discussion leaders: Roya and Ladan Boroumand, Abdorrahman Boroumand Foundation, Ahmed Herzenni, Moroccan National Human Rights Council (Tea and coffee break at 11:00) 12:30 – 13:30 Lunch in the cafe 13:30 – 17:00 Transitional justice Discussion leaders: Ramin Jahanbegloo, University of Toronto, Hirad Abtahi, International Criminal Court, Charles Villa Vicencio, Institute for Justice and Reconciliation (Tea and coffee break at 15:00) BIOGRAPHIES Hirad Abtahi is the first Legal Adviser and Chief of the Legal and Enforcement Unit of the Presidency of the International Criminal Court (ICC), where he has also acted as Chef de Cabinet in the Immediate Office of the President. -
Ayatollah Machiavelli 3
A HOOVER INSTITUTION ESSAY ON MIDDLE EAST STRATEGY CHALLENGES Ayatollah Machiavelli HOW ALI KHAMENEI BECAME THE MOST POWERFUL MAN IN THE MIDDLE EAST KARIM SADJADPOUR Introduction The June 2017 reelection of centrist Iranian president Hassan Rouhani obscured a larger story: Over the last decade Tehran’s most powerful man, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has imperceptibly become the most powerful man in the Middle East. The 2003 Iraq war and 2011 Arab uprisings created unprecedented political vacuums, and Khamenei’s Machiavellian combination of ruthlessness, radicalism, and realism—underpinned by a 2,500-year tradition of Persian statecraft—has helped Iran fill them. A careful study of his three-decade reign as Supreme Leader reveals Khamenei’s use Order International the and Islamism of diverse and sophisticated means to pursue deeply dogmatic, authoritarian ends. Though his domestic power has expanded markedly over the years, he has proven remarkably adept at deflecting accountability by using Iranian institutions—and carefully controlled elections—to project a façade of electoral democracy. To project power abroad, Khamenei couples Iran’s vast petro-funds with potent ideologies— including Shiite sectarianism, Iranian nationalism, and anti-imperialism—depending on the context. He simultaneously employs the sword of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards to expand Tehran’s regional power and the shield of the Iranian foreign ministry to defend against international pressure. How did an uncharismatic seventy-seven-year-old cleric become one of the longest- serving autocrats in the world and help make Persian-Shiite Iran the most influential country in the overwhelmingly Sunni-Arab Middle East? What follows is his playbook, and how the United States should best contend with it. -
Evolving Menace Iran's Use of Cyber-Enabled Economic Warfare
Evolving Menace Iran’s Use of Cyber-Enabled Economic Warfare Annie Fixler & Frank Cilluffo November 2018 FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES FOUNDATION Evolving Menace Iran’s Use of Cyber-Enabled Economic Warfare Annie Fixler Frank Cilluffo November 2018 FDD PRESS A division of the FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES Washington, DC Evolving Menace: Iran’s Use of Cyber-Enabled Economic Warfare Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................... 6 List of Iranian Cyber Operations ..................................................................................................................7 IRAN’S RELIANCE ON ASYMMETRIC CAPABILITIES ................................................................. 8 THE ARCHITECTURE OF CYBER WARFARE ................................................................................ 10 Main Actors and Organization of Iran’s Cyber Aggression Campaigns ..................................................14 THE IMPACT OF STUXNET, SANCTIONS, AND THE NUCLEAR AGREEMENT ................... 15 Stuxnet: Cyber Domain as a Nation-State Weapon ....................................................................................15 Escalating Sanctions and Cyber Retaliation ................................................................................................20 The Nuclear Deal .............................................................................................................................................24