Distribution Ecology of the Harpy Eagle: Spatial Patterns and Processes to Direct Conservation Planning
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University of Plymouth PEARL https://pearl.plymouth.ac.uk 04 University of Plymouth Research Theses 01 Research Theses Main Collection 2021 Distribution ecology of the harpy eagle: spatial patterns and processes to direct conservation planning Sutton, Luke James http://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/17078 University of Plymouth All content in PEARL is protected by copyright law. Author manuscripts are made available in accordance with publisher policies. Please cite only the published version using the details provided on the item record or document. In the absence of an open licence (e.g. Creative Commons), permissions for further reuse of content should be sought from the publisher or author. DISTRIBUTION ECOLOGY OF THE HARPY EAGLE: SPATIAL PATTERNS AND PROCESSES TO DIRECT CONSERVATION PLANNING. by LUKE JAMES SUTTON A thesis submitted to the University of Plymouth in partial fulfilment for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY School of Biological and Marine Sciences January 2021 This copy of the thesis has been supplied on condition that anyone who consults it is understood to recognise that its copyright rests with its author and that no quotation from the thesis and no information derived from it may be published without the author's prior consent. Acknowledgements I thank my supervisory team, Rob Puschendorf, Miguel Franco and Chris McClure for advice, support and discussion throughout the duration of this project. I thank The Peregrine Fund for providing financial assistance for my studentship. David Anderson, Jose González Vargas and Hernan Vargas kindly provided locations of harpy eagle nests from the Darien region of Panama. I thank Felipe Gomes who shared a database of crested eagle occurrences, and Everton Miranda who provided a database of harpy eagle occurrences. I thank all individuals and organisations who contributed occurrence data to the Global Raptor Impact Network (GRIN) information system or via the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and eBird online biodiversity databases. BirdLife International provided the spatial data for the Important Bird and Biodiversity Area (IBA) network. Author’s Declaration At no time during the registration for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy has the author been registered for any other University award without prior agreement of the Doctoral College Quality Sub-Committee. Work submitted for this research degree at the University of Plymouth has not formed part of any other degree either at the University of Plymouth or at another establishment. A programme of advanced study was undertaken, which included taught modules, Small Population Conservation and Conservation Ecology and Society, with external training seminars: BES Species Distribution Modelling, University of Nottingham; NSF Spatial Ecology in R, University of Glasgow and BES New UKCP18 climate projections, Met Office UK, Exeter. Publications: Sutton, L.J., Anderson, D.L., Franco, M., McClure, C.J.W., Miranda, E.B., Vargas, F.H., Vargas González, J. de J. & Puschendorf, R. (2021). Geographic range estimates and environmental requirements for the harpy eagle derived from spatial models of current and past distribution. Ecology & Evolution. 11: 481-497. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7068 Presentations at conferences: Sutton, L.J., Anderson, D.L., Franco, M., McClure, C.J.W., Vargas, F.H., Vargas González, J. de J. & Puschendorf, R. (2019). Incorporating biotic interactions improves distribution models for the Harpy Eagle. Raptor Research Foundation annual conference. Fort Collins, Colorado, USA. Word count of main body of thesis: 33,963 Signed: Date: 20 January 2021 ‘It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future’. - Mark Twain Luke James Sutton Distribution ecology of the harpy eagle: spatial patterns and processes to direct conservation planning. Abstract Accurately demarcating species distributions has long been at the core of ecology. Yet our understanding of the factors limiting species range limits is incomplete, especially for tropical species. Human-driven threats to the survival of many taxa are increasing, particularly habitat loss and climate change. Identifying distributional range limits of at-risk species can thus inform spatial conservation planning to mitigate these threats. The harpy eagle (Harpia harpyja) is a large raptor distributed across Neotropical lowland forests, from southern Mexico to northern Argentina, currently threatened by habitat loss and persecution. Coupled with climate change, harpy eagle distribution may contract or shift leading to uncertainty on its future conservation. Here, I use point process regression models and ordination to identify harpy eagle environmental range limits and recommend spatial conservation planning measures for the species. I propose a revised range size 11 % smaller and an Extent of Occurrence 26 % less than the current estimates. By including biotic interactions in model predictions, I show that prey resources are more important for limiting harpy eagle distribution than climatic conditions. When compared to crested eagle (Morphnus guianensis) distribution, the harpy eagle’s primary competitor, both species shared identical habitat resource space, with only subtle differences in distribution. Range-wide habitat use indicated that harpy eagles prefer areas of 70-75 % evergreen forest cover, low elevation and high vegetation heterogeneity, but avoid cultivated land, mosaic forest and complex topography. The current Important Bird and Biodiversity Area (IBA) network covered 17 % of medium to high harpy eagle habitat exceeding the protected area target representation (10 %). Under a future high emissions climate change scenario, range size was predicted to decrease by 14.4 % by 2090, with the IBA network covering 14 % less of its current coverage. Despite its large range, the harpy eagle has specialized habitat requirements and would benefit from targeted conservation measures based on spatial models in order to maintain viable populations. CONTENTS List of Tables ................................................................................................... i-v List of Figures ............................................................................................. vi-xv 1. Introduction 1.1 Background................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Study species and rationale ....................................................................... 2 2. Geographic range estimates and environmental requirements for the harpy eagle derived from spatial models of current and past distribution 2.1 Abstract ..................................................................................................... 8 2.2 Introduction ................................................................................................ 9 2.3 Methods ................................................................................................... 14 2.4 Results ..................................................................................................... 26 2.5 Discussion ............................................................................................... 36 2.6 Appendices .............................................................................................. 44 3. Prey resources are more important than abiotic conditions for predicting the distribution of a broad-ranged apex predator 3.1 Abstract ................................................................................................... 51 3.2 Introduction .............................................................................................. 52 3.3 Methods ................................................................................................... 57 3.4 Results ..................................................................................................... 66 3.5 Discussion ............................................................................................... 77 3.6 Appendices .............................................................................................. 84 4. Habitat resource overlap in two sympatric Neotropical forest eagles 4.1 Abstract ................................................................................................... 88 4.2 Introduction .............................................................................................. 89 4.3 Methods ................................................................................................... 94 4.4 Results ................................................................................................... 105 4.5 Discussion ............................................................................................. 114 4.6 Appendices ............................................................................................ 119 5. Range-wide habitat use and protected area coverage in a tropical forest raptor population within an increasingly deforested landscape 5.1 Abstract ................................................................................................. 122 5.2 Introduction ............................................................................................ 123 5.3 Methods ................................................................................................. 128 5.4 Results ................................................................................................... 136 5.5 Discussion ............................................................................................