St Edmundsbury Employment Land Review Final Report
St Edmundsbury Borough Council May 2017
© 2017 Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners Ltd, trading as Lichfields. All Rights Reserved. Registered in England, no. 2778116. 14 Regent’s Wharf, All Saints Street, London N1 9RL Formatted for double sided printing. Plans based upon Ordnance Survey mapping with the permission of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office. © Crown Copyright reserved. Licence number AL50684A 15221MS/CGJ/LBa 13679878v2
St Edmundsbury Employment Land Review : Final Report
Contents
1.0 Introduction 1
Scope of Study 1
Study Methodology 2 Structure of the Report 3
2.0 St Edmundsbury Economic Context 4
Spatial Overview 4 Economic Overview 5
Summary 12
3.0 Overview of Employment Space 14
Stock of Employment Floorspace 14
Historic Development of Employment Space 17
Summary 21
4.0 Commercial Property Market Signals and Intelligence 23
National and Regional Property Market Overview 23
Market Geography 23
Market Segments 25
Rural Employment Space 28
Provision for Small Firms/Start-ups 29
Needs of Local Businesses 30 Summary 32
5.0 Functional Economic Market Area 34
Rationale 34 Labour Market Areas 34
Housing Market Areas 40
Commercial Property Market Areas 42
Transport and Communications Connectivity 43
Summary 43
6.0 Review of Employment Sites Portfolio 45
General Employment Areas and Rural Employment Areas 47
Proposed Employment Sites 54
St Edmundsbury Employment Land Review : Final Report
Summary 57
7.0 Future Requirements for Employment Space 58
Methodology 58
Forecasts of Job Growth 58
B. Past Development Rates 62 C. Future Labour Supply 63
Summary of Net Employment Space Requirements 65
Net Land Requirements 65 Planning Requirement 66
Sensitivity Tests 66
Synthesis and Conclusions 67
8.0 Demand/Supply Balance 69
Quantitative Balance 69
Sub-District Distribution 71
Summary 74
9.0 Conclusions and Policy Implications 75
Meeting Future Needs 75
Future Growth Scenarios 76
Accommodating Growth 77
St Edmundsbury Employment Land Review : Final Report
1.0 Introduction
1.1 St Edmundsbury Borough Council (‘the Council’) commissioned Lichfields to undertake an Employment Land Review (ELR) for St Edmundsbury Borough. The objective of the study is to provide a long term assessment of the need for business space and employment land within the Borough over a 20 year study period to 2031.
1.2 The study is intended to provide the Council with an understanding of the current economic situation and the future needs of businesses and the local economy and the requirements for employment land. It assesses the economic development needs of the Borough objectively in line with the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) and Planning Practice Guidance (PPG).
1.3 The study has involved three main stages: 1 Stage 1: Taking Stock of the Existing Situation: analysis of the economic strengths and weaknesses of the local economy, functional economic area, and an assessment of the fitness for purpose of a portfolio of designated employment sites. 2 Stage 2: Assessing B-Use Future Requirements: testing the implications of different employment and population growth scenarios on future employment space requirements for the Borough, using the most up-to-date economic forecasts and analysis of housing needs. 3 Stage 3: Identifying a Site Portfolio: analysing the suitability and deliverability of sites available to meet future needs under each growth scenario, which sites should be retained for employment uses and which released for alternative uses, and any need for additional sites. Scope of Study
1.4 The purpose of the ELR is to provide the Council with an up-to-date evidence base relating to current and future requirements for B class employment space in St Edmundsbury to 2031. The assessment is based on a range of scenarios for how the economy could change in the future, with the employment space and land implications of the following B class uses considered in this study:
B1 Business: offices (B1a), research & development (B1b) and light industrial (B1c).
B2 General Industrial: typically comprising factory and manufacturing space.
B8 Storage and Distribution: warehouses, wholesale and distribution.
1.5 The demand for B class employment floorspace and land in St Edmundsbury is considered in this study, with references to “employment space” referring to both elements. In addition, the term “industrial space” encompasses both manufacturing (B1c/B2) and distribution (B8) uses for the purposes of this study.
1.6 The study also considers forecasts of growth in non B class sectors in St Edmundsbury to set out how the economy as a whole could change in the future, although the study does not specifically assess the space implications of non B class sectors. The space implications of non B class sectors are planned for using different methodologies and are considered by other technical evidence (e.g. retail studies).
1.7 It should be noted that there are a variety of factors and drivers to consider when objectively assessing the business needs for a local economy. The study uses a combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis to examine these issues in the
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context of St Edmundsbury, synthesising these to develop conclusions and policy implications for long-term planning in the Borough. The study has used the latest available data and other evidence available at the time of drafting, while the accuracy of third party data has not been checked or verified by Lichfields.
1.8 An important consideration for any technical work of this type is that the study is inevitably a point-in-time assessment. The study post-dates the outcome of the UK referendum on membership of the European Union (EU) in June 2016, but does not give specific consideration for how the timing and basis for the UK’s future exit from the EU could impact national or local economic change given current uncertainty regarding these arrangements. It may therefore be necessary to undertake selective updates to the study once greater economic certainty and clarity is available through econometric forecasts and other indicators.
1.9 As part of the study, consultation has been undertaken with a range of local stakeholders, including commercial property agents, economic development agencies, and business organisations. A list of the consultees is provided in Appendix 1. Study Methodology
1.10 In March 2014, the Government released Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) to provide practical support for practitioners and inform the implementation of the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF). With regards to assessing economic development needs, the Guidance states that local authorities should: a Consider their existing stock of land, identifying the demand for and supply of employment land and determine the likely business needs and future market requirements; b Consider the locational and premises requirements of particular types of business; c Consider projections and forecasts to help identify where sites have been developed for a specific economic use; d Analyse supply and demand to identify whether there is a discrepancy between quantitative and qualitative supply and demand for employment sites; and e Identify where gaps in local employment land provision exist by comparing the available stock of land with the requirements of the area.
1.11 The methodology that has been used to undertake the ELR conforms to the requirements of the NPPF and PPG and can be summarised in Figure 1.1 below.
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Figure 1.1 St Edmundsbury ELR Methodology
Source: Lichfields
Structure of the Report
1.12 The report is structured under the following sections:
St Edmundsbury Economic Context (Section 2.0): a review of economic conditions and recent trends in the Borough, and the strengths and weaknesses of the local economy that may influence the future need for employment space.
Overview of Employment Space (Section 3.0): an analysis of the current stock and trends of employment space in the Borough in terms of the range of B class uses, past development rates, and gains and losses.
Commercial Property Market Signals and Intelligence (Section 4.0): a review of the local commercial property market including supply of and demand for different types of employment space, and the needs of particular market segments.
Functional Economic Market Area (Section 5.0): establishes the various functional economic market areas that operate across St Edmundsbury and the wider sub-region, in order to provide an understanding of the various economic relationships, linkages and flows which characterise the sub-regional economy.
Review of Employment Sites Portfolio (Section 6.0): an assessment of current and potential employment sites in the Borough, including the market attractiveness of these sites and their ability to meet future needs.
Future Requirements for Employment Space (Section 7.0): an estimate of future employment space requirements for B class sectors in quantitative terms, drawing on employment projections and other factors.
Demand / Supply Balance (Section 8.0): an assessment of the balance between existing land supply and future requirements in both quantitative and qualitative terms.
Conclusions and Policy Implications (Section 9.0): a consideration of policy and strategic measures required to support economic growth in the St Edmundsbury economy.
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2.0 St Edmundsbury Economic Context
2.1 This section establishes the economic context for the study by summarising recent economic conditions and trends in St Edmundsbury. The analysis identifies the key strengths and weaknesses of the St Edmundsbury economy and the factors likely to influence future demand for employment space in the Borough. Spatial Overview
2.2 St Edmundsbury is located in Suffolk in the East of England and is characterised by its primarily rural nature. The two primary towns are Bury St Edmunds and Haverhill which represent the main employment locations in the Borough.
2.3 The Borough is adjoined by seven other Local Authorities, with Breckland to the north, Forest Heath, East Cambridgeshire and South Cambridgeshire to the west, Braintree to the south and Mid Suffolk and Babergh to the east (Figure 2.1).
Figure 2.1 Spatial Context of St Edmundsbury Borough
Source: Lichfields analysis
2.4 The strategic road network that services St Edmundsbury includes the A14, A134 and A143. In addition to these, the Borough also has access to the Cambridge/Peterborough railway line via Bury St Edmunds station, the only train station in the Borough. This line offers connections to London Kings Cross via Cambridge or London Liverpool Street via Ipswich.
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2.5 In 2015, St Edmundsbury had a resident population of 112,5001, and this has increased by 8.9% over the past 10 years since 2005. Economic Overview
2.6 Recent economic conditions and trends in St Edmundsbury are summarised below, with comparisons made, where appropriate, with county, LEP, regional and national benchmarks.
Employment Past Trends
2.7 Based on the latest East of England Forecasting Model (EEFM 2016) data, St Edmundsbury registered 65,370 total workforce jobs in 2016 having increased by13.5% since 20012. This compared with total job growth recorded across Suffolk and the wider new Anglia LEP area of 6.7% and 9.9% respectively over this 15 year period.
2.8 As shown in Figure 2.2 below, total job growth has been steady and relatively consistent over the last 15 years, with B class job growth broadly echoing this trend. Within B class sectors, office jobs have been driving growth over this period (equivalent to an increase of 11.6% between 2001 and 2016) while industrial employment has been gradually declining, falling from 18,200 in 2001 to 14,820 in 2016 (Figure 2.2). The proportion of B class jobs to total jobs has remained largely unchanged over this recent period, representing between 43.7% and 46.9% of all jobs in St Edmundsbury.
EEFM Data Outliers
2.9 It should be noted that Cambridge Econometrics (who produce the EEFM) identified a data ‘outlier’ within the business services sector within the 2016 EEFM model for St Edmundsbury, relating to a company operating within the ‘services to buildings and landscape activities’ sub-sector. The company is a fast-growing multi-national commercial services firm, which appears to be represented within the Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) (one of the key inputs to the EEFM model) by group employees rather than site employees, whereby over-stating the scale of employees that are actually based within the Borough within the business services sector and in overall terms.
2.10 The EEFM model recognises this as a known error and in order to provide a more accurate trend based view of employment within business services and overall employment in St Edmundsbury, Cambridgeshire County Council have provided a revised estimated historical employment time series for the Borough, and this has been incorporated into the ELR analysis. The overall scale of job growth (and job growth within the business services sector specifically) presented here therefore deviates from the published 2016 EEFM data for St Edmundsbury.
1 ONS Mid-year population estimates, 2015 2 2001 represents the earliest year for which historical employment data is available from the 2016 EEFM
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Figure 2.2 Total Workforce and B Class Job Change in St Edmundsbury 2001-2016
80,000
70,000
65,367 60,000 57,607
50,000 Total Workplace Jobs B Class Jobs Office Jobs 40,000 Industrial Jobs
Workplace Jobs Workplace 30,000 26,660 29,761
20,000 18,199 14,943
14,818 10,000 8,461
0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: EEFM 2016 / Lichfields analysis
Employment Base
2.11 In employment terms, the largest sector in St Edmundsbury in 2016 is health & care services (accounting for 15.3% of all employment) while manufacturing (10.8%), business services (9.9%) and retail (9.7%) also account for a significant proportion of workforce jobs. All of these sectors (with the exception of retail) are over represented in employment terms compared with Suffolk and the New Anglia LEP area3 as a whole (Figure 2.3). This over representation is most pronounced in health and care services, driven in part by the presence of West Suffolk Hospital which serves an area of approximately 600 miles with a population of around 275,000.4 High levels of manufacturing employment can partly be explained by the presence of a strong chemicals manufacturing sector and associated biotech firms such as Sanofi in Haverhill.
2.12 At the same time, education, hospitality, construction and land transport are all under- represented in employment terms compared with county and LEP proportions (Figure 2.3). This under-representation is most prevalent within the land transport and construction sectors while this trend is comparatively less significant with regards to education and hospitality (Figure 2.3).
3 The New Anglia LEP area is used (rather than the Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough LEP area) for comparison due to data limitations associated with the EEFM 4 West Suffolk NHS Foundation Trust 2016
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Figure 2.3 Workforce Jobs by Sector in St Edmundsbury, Suffolk and New Anglia LEP (2016)
16.0 St Edmundsbury Suffolk 14.0 New Anglia LEP 12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0 % of Total Employment Employment Total(2016) of % 2.0
0.0
Source: EEFM 2016 / Lichfields analysis
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2.13 Between 2001 and 2016, employment growth within St Edmundsbury was primarily driven in proportionate terms by water and air transport (Figure 2.4), although in absolute terms this represented an increase of just 50 jobs. The business services (4,110 jobs), health and care (2,660 jobs) and professional services (1,830 jobs) sectors played the greatest role in driving employment growth over this period.
Figure 2.4 Workforce Job Change by Sector in St Edmundsbury 2001-2016
840% Water & air transport Real estate 316 Research & development 226 Business services 176 Waste & remediation 102 Computer related activity 92 Professional services 76 Land transport 51 Education 51 Health & care 36 Accommodation & food services 34 Agriculture 33 Utilities 28 Arts & entertainment 27 Employment activities 19 Total 13 Telecoms 11 Retail 7 Wholesale -17 Finance -19 Construction -21 Public administration -21 Mining & quarrying -22 Other services -27 Manufacturing -30 Publishing & broadcasting -75
-100 0 100 200 300 400 % Workforce Jobs Change 2001-2016
Source: EEFM 2016 / Lichfields analysis
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2.14 As can be seen in Figure 2.4, the most significant job losses were recorded in publishing and broadcasting, manufacturing and other services. This is likely to reflect the wider macro decline of manufacturing activities in conjunction with a shift towards a services dominated economy, reflected in the 76% growth in professional services across the timeframe.
Business Base
2.15 The local business base in St Edmundsbury is characterised as having a slightly lower share of micro firms (0 to 9 workers) and higher share of small (10 to 49) and medium sized (50 to 249) firms compared with the two LEP areas of New Anglia and Greater Cambridge and Greater Peterborough, the region and the national average (Table 2.1).
2.16 The share of the working-age population in St Edmundsbury that are self-employed is slightly lower than the regional and national average and slightly higher than across the two LEP areas as a whole.
Table 2.1 Key Characteristics of St Edmundsbury’s Business Base (%)
St New GC and East of Great
Edmundsbury Anglia LEP GP LEP England Britain Micro (0 to 9) 87.3 88.0 88.5 89.2 88.7 Business Small (10 to 49) 10.5 10.1 9.5 8.9 9.3 Size Medium (50 to 249) 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.6 (2015) Large (More than 250) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Self-Employment (Apr 15–Mar 16) 8.8 9.7 9.7 10.3 10.2
Source: St Edmundsbury New Anglia LEP GC and GP LEP East of England Great Britain
2.17 Drawing upon Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) data, Figure 2.5 illustrates the spatial distribution of business sectors and employment in St Edmundsbury. A larger version of the map is included in Appendix 3.
2.18 This shows that the majority of the Borough’s businesses and employment is concentrated in and around the key settlements of Haverhill and Bury St Edmunds.
2.19 Haverhill’s manufacturing and wholesale related employment is concentrated within the town’s southern industrial estates where professional and business services employment can also be found.
2.20 Bury St Edmund’s out of town business parks tend to accommodate the majority of B class employment within the town, although some business services and smaller scale manufacturing employment is also found in and around the town centre.
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Figure 2.5 Spatial Distribution of Business Sectors and Employment in St Edmundsbury, 2015
Source: Inter-Departmental Business Register 2015 / Lichfields analysis
Labour Market
2.21 The St Edmundsbury labour market is characterised by a higher share of the working age population being economically active than the East of England and Great Britain as a whole. The proportion of the population claiming out-of-work benefits is lower than the regional and national averages at 1.0% compared to 1.2% in the East of England and 1.8% in Great Britain.
2.22 The proportion of the resident workforce in St Edmundsbury with higher level qualifications of level NVQ4 and above (34.1%) is higher than that of the wider Suffolk area (27.8%) and similar to that of the East of England (33.6%). However it is slightly lower than the national average of 37.1%.
2.23 The proportion of the Borough’s population holding ‘other’ qualifications at 6.7% is slightly lower than the wider Suffolk area (8.0%), the East of England (7.1%) and Great Britain (8.6%). This indicates that the resident labour force in the Borough is similarly skilled to the rest of the country. This is further reflected in the number of people with no qualifications in the Borough (7.8%) which is again slightly lower than the wider Suffolk area (9.5%), the East of England (8.0%) and Great Britain (8.6%).
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Table 2.2 Key Characteristics of the Labour Market
St East of Great Suffolk Edmundsbury England Britain Economic Activity Rate age 16-64 (2015) 85.5% 79.9% 80.6% 77.8% Out-of-Work Benefits Claimant Count (May 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.8% 2016) Resident NVQ4 and Above 34.1% 27.8% 33.6% 37.1% Qualification NVQ3 and Above 60.8% 50.3% 53.4% 57.4% Level age 16-64 NVQ2 and Above 74.4% 67.5% 71.5% 73.6% (2015) NVQ1 and Above 85.5% 82.5% 84.9% 84.9% Other Qualification 6.7% 8.0% 7.1% 6.5% No Qualification 7.8% 9.5% 8.0% 8.6% Resident SOC Major Group 1 - 3 44.8% 41.1% 44.0% 44.3% Occupation SOC Major Group 4 - 5 23.4% 19.5% 22.4% 21.3% Group (2015) SOC Major Group 6 - 7 12.9% 17.2% 16.1% 16.9% SOC Major Group 8 - 9 19.0% 21.6% 17.2% 17.1% Median Gross Weekly Earnings by £509 £499 £551 £530 Residence (2015) Median Gross Weekly Earnings by £466 £479 £518 £529 Workplace (2015)
Source: St Edmundsbury Suffolk East of England Great Britain Note: SOC 2010 Major Group 1-3 includes managers, directors and senior officials: SOC 2010 Major Group 4-5 includes administrative and trade occupations; SOC 2010 Major Group 6-7 includes services and sales occupations and SOC 2010 Major Group 8-9 includes machinery, part & process operatives and elementary occupations.
2.24 A higher share of St Edmundsbury’s labour force is employed in higher skilled occupations represented by SOC Major Group 1-3 compared to Suffolk, the East of England and Great Britain. An outlier can be seen in SOC Major Group 8-9 which shows a higher proportion of workers in lower skilled elementary roles in St Edmundsbury.
2.25 Average earnings in St Edmundsbury differ significantly between residents (higher) and workplace workers (lower). This would suggest that local residents are utilising their more advanced qualifications to obtain higher paid jobs outside of the Borough in places such as Cambridge. St Edmundsbury’s residents earn on average 9.2% more than those people working in the Borough.
2.26 Resident earnings are higher than the Suffolk average (£509 compared to £499), but lower than both the East of England and National averages (£529). Summary
2.27 The key features of St Edmundsbury’s economy can be summarised as follows: 1 St Edmundsbury has good strategic road access, supporting the role of the Borough as a location for industrial and logistics use, with the A14 offering connections to the M11 and London in the south as well as Ipswich in the east. 2 The Borough has recorded an increase in employment in recent years, with particularly strong levels of growth in the business services, health and care and professional services sectors. Those sectors which have seen job losses include publishing and broadcasting, manufacturing, other services and mining and quarrying. The overall proportion of ‘B class’ jobs within the local economy has remained similar over the past 15 years.
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3 Health and care services currently represents the largest sector in St Edmundsbury in employment terms, and is over represented compared with Suffolk and the New Anglia LEP area as a whole (as well as the manufacturing and business services sectors). 4 The local business base in St Edmundsbury is characterised as having fewer micro sized firms compared with the LEP and regional averages, however it has more smaller sized firms than both the LEP and regional averages. Businesses tend to be generally concentrated in and around the Borough’s key settlements of Bury St Edmunds and Haverhill. 5 St Edmundsbury has a higher proportion of residents with higher level skills than the LEP, regional and national averages. This aligns with a higher share of the workforce being employed in higher skilled occupation groups.
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3.0 Overview of Employment Space
3.1 This section provides an overview of the current stock of B class employment space in St Edmundsbury, as well as recent trends and changes to this stock of employment space. This analysis considers the amount of employment space across the three main types of B class employment use: offices (B1a/B1/b), manufacturing (B1c/B2), and warehousing and distribution (B8). It uses data from the following sources:
Commercial floorspace data from the ONS and Valuation Office Agency (VOA); and
Monitoring data on commercial floorspace from St Edmundsbury Borough Council. Stock of Employment Floorspace
3.2 St Edmundsbury contained around 1,104,000sq.m of B class employment space in 2016, including 91% in industrial use and 9% in office use. The total stock of employment space in the Borough increased by 5.1% between 2000 and 2016 (Figure 3.1), a faster pace than across the East of England over the same period (3.1%).
Figure 3.1 Change in Employment Space in St Edmundsbury 2000-2016
1000 +3.0% 900 Office Industrial 800 700 600 500
sq.m) 400 300 200 100 +5.4%
Total Employment Floorspace ('000s Employment Total 0
Source: VOA Business Floorspace Data 2016 / Lichfields analysis
3.3 The rate of floorspace growth between 2000 and 2016 was similar for both commercial offices (5.4%) and industrial space (3.0%) (Figure 3.1).
3.4 Figure 3.2 below provides an overview of B class employment space in St Edmundsbury compared with the stock of employment space in neighbouring local authority areas.
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Figure 3.2 Overview of Employment Space by Local Authority, 2016
1200 1,053 Commercial Office Industrial 1,001 1000 898 900 829 800 612 600 473 485 431 400
200 103 120 43 58 57 60 65 0 Total Employment Floorspace ('000s sqm) Floorspace ('000s Employment Total
Source: VOA Business Floorspace Data 2016 / Lichfields analysis
3.5 This shows that St Edmundsbury accommodates the second highest stock of industrial space of all neighbouring authority areas, falling behind only Breckland (Figure 3.2).
3.6 The Borough’s stock of commercial office floorspace is also higher than most of its neighbouring and nearby authorities with only South Cambridgeshire and Braintree supporting more commercial office space than St Edmundsbury (Figure 3.2). This is accounted for by the presence of many of Cambridge’s out of town office business parks within South Cambridgeshire authority area.
Spatial Distribution
3.7 The spatial distribution of B class employment space in St Edmundsbury is shown in Figure 3.3 and Table 3.1 using VOA record data. More detailed maps showing the spatial distribution of VOA business floorspace are included in Appendix 4.
3.8 This indicates that in 2010, employment space in the Borough was concentrated in the main settlements of Bury St Edmunds and Haverhill. More than three quarters of the Borough’s office space is located in Bury St Edmunds, and much of this is concentrated in and around the town centre.
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Figure 3.3 Spatial Distribution of Employment Space in St Edmundsbury, 2010
Source: VOA Business Floorspace Data 2010 / Lichfields analysis
3.9 In contrast, Haverhill accommodates the largest stock of factory and workshop space in the Borough (37% of the total), as well as around a fifth of St Edmundsbury’s warehousing space (Table 3.1).
Table 3.1 Location of Employment Floorspace in St Edmundsbury, 2010
% of Factory Settlement/ % of Office % of Warehouse % of Business and Workshop Area Space Space Unit Space Space Bury St Edmunds 76.5 31.9 42.4 57.8 Haverhill 11.4 37.4 19.1 0.2 Stanton 0.0 4.9 15.0 0.0 Shepherd’s Grove Rest of Borough 11.4 25.8 23.5 42.1
Source: VOA Business Floorspace Data 2010 / Lichfields analysis
3.10 Elsewhere, industrial and warehousing space tends to also be scattered across the more rural areas of the Borough, and on the edge of smaller settlements such as Chedburgh and Risby.
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3.11 The site of Shepherd’s Grove (to the east of Stanton) has been included within Table 3.1 due to the significant quantum of warehousing space accommodated here, as can be seen in Figure 3.3. This site supports 15% of the total warehousing space in the Borough, in addition to approximately 5% of its factory and workshop space.
3.12 There is generally only a small provision of business unit space across the Borough, however just over half of this floorspace is located in and around Bury St Edmunds. This tends to include managed workspace within business and enterprise centre type premises. Historic Development of Employment Space
3.13 Monitoring data provided by St Edmundsbury Borough Council can be used to provide an overview of the scale and nature of B class employment space development that has occurred within the Borough over recent years.
Gross Completions
3.14 The gross amount of B class employment space developed in St Edmundsbury during the period 2003 to 2015 equated to around 140,900sq.m in total, which is equivalent to an annual average gross completion rate of 10,800sq.m during this period. The majority of the new B class employment space developed in St Edmundsbury over this period was for industrial use (74%), including 40% in B1c/B2 factory use and 34% in B8 warehousing and distribution use.
3.15 It should be noted that where the monitoring data identifies gross completions of employment space that contains multiple B class uses, this assessment has assumed an even split across these B class uses. For example, a new office and warehouse development would assume a 50:50 split of gross employment space across these two B class uses.
3.16 As illustrated in Figure 3.4, the level of new B class development in St Edmundsbury peaked over the reporting years of 2006, 2008, and 2012. Each of these years recorded a total gross completion of B class employment space that exceeded 24,000sq.m and collectively represent approximately 60% of the total B class employment space developed in St Edmundsbury during the period for which data is available.
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Figure 3.4 Gross B Class Employment Space Completions in St Edmundsbury, 2003 - 2015
25,000 25,700sq.m Offices (B1a/B1b)
20,000 Industrial (B1c/B2/B8)
15,000
10,000 8,100sq.m Gross Floorspace Completions (sq.m) Completions Gross Floorspace 5,000 2,800sq.m
0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: St Edmundsbury Borough Council / Lichfields analysis
3.17 Gross completions of industrial space in St Edmundsbury during the period 2003 to 2015 were principally driven by a few large developments. These large individual developments together represent almost 45% of the total industrial space that was developed in St Edmundsbury over this period: 1 18,600sq.m of storage and distribution space developed on land adjacent to Bumpstead Road and the bypass in Haverhill in 2008; 2 8,500sq.m of industrial space developed on Homefield Road in Haverhill in 2006; 3 7,500sq.m of warehouse space developed on Sites C5 and C6 of Suffolk Business Park in Bury St Edmunds in 2010; 4 5,800sq.m of industrial space gained from the change of use of Britvic Distribution Depot in Moreton Hall Industrial Estate in Bury St Edmunds in 2006; and 5 5,100sq.m of industrial and warehouse space developed on part of Site E1 of Suffolk Business Park in Bury St Edmunds in 2004.
3.18 The annual average gross completion of industrial space in St Edmundsbury through this period amounted to 8,100sq.m, which was higher than the annual average gross completion of office space of 2,800sq.m. The most notable peaks of office development over this monitoring period were in 2006 and 2012 with the two largest developments including 3,800sq.m of office and laboratory space on 37/39 Hollands Road in Haverhill in 2006 and 2,200sq.m of office space on land adjacent to Linden House in Bury St Edmunds in 2010.
Losses of Employment Space
3.19 Losses of B class employment space in St Edmundsbury during the period 2003 to 2015 equated to around 29,100sq.m, which is equivalent to an annual average loss of 2,200sq.m over this period. This loss of employment space in the Borough mainly related to industrial use (63%) with around 37% of the losses over this monitoring period related to office use.
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3.20 As with the assessment of the gross completions data, where the monitoring data identifies losses of employment space that contains multiple B class uses, this assessment has assumed an even split across these B class uses. For example, the change of use or demolition of an office and warehouse premises would assume that the losses of employment space are split evenly across these two B class uses (in absence of more detailed information).
3.21 As shown in Figure 3.5, the most notable years for losses of employment space in St Edmundsbury between 2003 and 2015 were 2006 and 2012. A total of 14,800sq.m of B class employment space was lost in the Borough during these two years which represents half of the total losses of employment space in St Edmundsbury recorded through the 13 year monitoring period.
Figure 3.5 Losses of B Class Employment Space in St Edmundsbury, 2003 - 2015
6,000 6,100sq.m Offices (B1a/B1b) 5,000 Industrial (B1c/B2/B8)
4,000
3,000
2,000 Losses of Losses Floorspace (sq.m) 1,400sq.m
800sq.m 1,000
0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: St Edmundsbury Borough Council / Lichfields analysis
3.22 The four largest single losses of B class employment space within St Edmundsbury during this period represented just over half of the total losses of employment space recorded in the Borough over the monitoring period: 1 5,800sq.m of warehouse space lost due to the change of use of Britvic Distribution Depot in Moreton Hall Industrial Estate in Bury St Edmunds in 2006; 2 3,700sq.m of industrial space lost due to the demolition of five existing buildings at Gaines Hall in Attleton Green, Wickhambrook in 2012; 3 3,400sq.m of office space lost due to the change of use to dwellings on Langton Place in Bury St Edmunds in 2008; and 4 2,400sq.m of office space lost due to the change of use to a hotel on Raingate Street in Bury St Edmunds in 2015.
Net Completions
3.23 The overall net completion of B class employment space in St Edmundsbury during the period 2003 to 2015 remains positive after taking into account losses of employment space (as shown in Figure 3.6). Between 2003 and 2015, the Borough recorded total net
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completions of around 111,800sq.m, with an annual average net completion rate of 6,600sq.m for industrial uses and 2,000sq.m for office uses.
Figure 3.6 Net B Class Employment Space Completions in St Edmundsbury, 2003 - 2015
21,000 22,900sq.m 18,000 Offices (B1a/B1b) 15,000 Industrial (B1c/B2/B8) 12,000
9,000 6,600sq.m 6,000
Net Floorspace Completions (sq.m) Completions Net Floorspace 2,000sq.m 3,000
0
-3,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: St Edmundsbury Borough Council / Lichfields analysis
3.24 This means that across all B class uses, gross completions of employment space has exceeded losses through this period, resulting in an overall increase in the amount of B class employment space recorded in the Borough. As shown in Figure 3.6, the majority (77%) of the net completions in the Borough over this period were for industrial use.
Permitted Development Rights
3.25 In 2013, the Government announced the proposed introduction of Permitted Development Rights (PDR) to allow for the change of use from B1(a) offices to residential uses without the need to acquire planning permission from the local planning authority. In October 2015, the Government confirmed that temporary PDR will be made permanent. In this context, the influence of the new PDR is expected to be an increase in the rate of losses of office floorspace, potentially above historic trends.
3.26 An analysis of monitoring data from St Edmundsbury Borough Council indicates that 22 prior approval applications have been submitted and granted for a change of use from office to residential uses in the Borough under the new PDR since May 2013. The location of these prior approvals is shown in Figure 3.7 below.
3.27 This shows that Bury St Edmunds town centre has accommodated the majority of prior approvals since 2013, with key examples of office buildings including 100 Southgate Street, Phoenix House on Newmarket Road, Garland House, Linden House, Triton House and the former Suffolk Constabulary Offices on Maynewater Lane. This concentration of prior approvals in and around Bury St Edmunds town centre is perhaps not surprising given the town’s role as a key office centre, accommodating the majority of the Borough’s office stock. Elsewhere, prior approvals have been granted for change of use of more rurally located office premises scattered across the Borough, with just one prior approval in Haverhill (Figure 3.7).
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Figure 3.7 Spatial Distribution of Office Premises with Permitted Development Rights (at April 2017)
Source: St Edmundsbury Borough Council / Lichfields analysis
3.28 These granted prior approval applications have the potential to deliver around an additional 90 residential units across the Borough, although the monitoring data does not record how much office floorspace could be lost if all prior approval conversions were to be implemented.
3.29 The introduction of PDR is expected to have a significant effect on the supply of office floorspace in local authorities across the UK, but particularly in those local authorities with the highest residential land values and pressure on lower value uses (e.g. office floorspace). With PDR now confirmed as permanent, it will be important for St Edmundsbury Borough Council to carefully monitor the future loss of office space to determine whether additional provision becomes necessary over and above the requirements set out in Section 7.0 Summary
3.30 The following key findings and conclusions can be drawn with respect to the stock of employment space within St Edmundsbury: 1 St Edmundsbury has seen B class employment space grow faster than the average rate across the East of England since 2000. Office uses acted as a key driver although the Borough’s total stock of office space remains much lower than industrial. 2 Employment space in the Borough is concentrated within the two primary settlements of Bury St Edmunds and Haverhill with a small cluster of warehouse space located at Shepherd’s Grove. 77% of office space is located in Bury St Edmunds
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while factory and workshop space tends to be slightly more evenly distributed across the Borough, with significant clusters in Bury St Edmunds and Haverhill. 3 St Edmundsbury has a similar quantity of indusial space to its surrounding authorities, and its stock of commercial office space is higher than neighbouring and nearby authorities except South Cambridgeshire and Braintree. 4 Recent development of new B class space in St Edmundsbury has been uneven with particular spikes occurring in 2006 and 2008. Over the past 12 years, the Borough has recorded average annual gross B class floorspace completions equivalent to 10,800sq.m, mainly relating to industrial space. Once losses of space are taken into account, the overall net rate of B class development has been positive over the past 12 years. 5 The recent introduction of Permitted Development Rights (PDR) for change of use from office (B1a) to residential uses has started to have an impact on the Borough’s stock of office space, with monitoring data from the Council indicating 22 prior approval applications have been granted since May2013.
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4.0 Commercial Property Market Signals and Intelligence
4.1 This section provides an overview of the commercial property market in and around St Edmundsbury, including recent trends in demand and supply. The findings are mainly based on discussions with a number of commercial property agents currently active in the Borough and wider sub-region (see Appendix 1) and where appropriate this has been supplemented with information derived from a number of sources including commercial property availability databases and published reports. National and Regional Property Market Overview
4.2 The UK economic recovery, which began in 2013, has now become firmly entrenched, and sentiment in commercial property appears to be the most positive it has been for many years. While central London offices are still the outperforming market segment, some investors and developers are also looking further afield in an attempt to access stock and achieve good returns. However, much of this activity is focusing on the best performing locations in the South East or major provincial cities. In more economically marginal locations, and those without a significant existing commercial property market, there is still uncertainty and lenders and developers are likely to remain cautious.
4.3 The recent EU referendum vote and resulting economic uncertainty is also anticipated to have an impact upon commercial property markets across the country with investor and developer confidence likely to be hit in the short term at least. Given the focus of the ELR upon longer term needs as well as short term needs, it is important that any analysis of commercial property market signals takes a longer term view. Market Geography
4.4 Within St Edmundsbury, the main focus in commercial property market terms is on the two towns of Bury St Edmunds in the centre of the Borough and Haverhill in the south of the Borough. Bury St Edmunds is located adjacent to the A14 which runs from the East Midlands through Cambridge to Felixstowe and this strategic corridor facilitates the flow of occupiers to and from the town. The A14 does however suffer from congestion and capacity problems around Bury St Edmunds which can act as a key constraint for the town’s business occupiers.
4.5 Haverhill lacks the presence of a strategic transport route but is located near to the M11 corridor and Stansted Airport. The town’s proximity to Cambridge has been a driver or influence in commercial property market terms in recent years and Haverhill has had some success in attracting Cambridge developers and investors such as HID Corporation.
4.6 The strategic employment focus in St Edmundsbury is on industrial uses (storage, light industrial and distribution) and historic availability of flat, developable land which has leant itself to the development of warehousing and storage distribution units, as well as some industrial and manufacturing uses such as the British Sugar plant at Bury St Edmunds. This key focus upon industrial activity is echoed across other parts of West Suffolk further along the A14 corridor in Forest Heath, and also further east into Mid Suffolk.
4.7 The A14 meets the A11 in adjoining Forest Heath District and the A11 has recently been subject to a £120 million investment to significantly improve accessibility within this part of East Anglia. To capitalise upon this significant accessibility improvement, the A11
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Growth Corridor project has been developed (also known as the Cambridge Norwich Tech Corridor) to establish a location for new economic investment activity with a focus on developing new technology-related employment.
4.8 Despite the presence of the A14 which runs through the centre of the Borough, St Edmundsbury’s commercial centres tend to operate in a relatively self-contained way, particularly with regards to Bury St Edmunds. This characteristic is in contrast to the geography of commercial property markets elsewhere in Suffolk, where large areas tend to operate within the ‘hinterland’ of urban centres such as Cambridge or Ipswich. As noted above, Haverhill does interact with Cambridge to an extent from a commercial property market perspective, although this mainly relates to industrial activity, and it remains difficult to persuade Cambridge based office occupiers to relocate to Haverhill (and West Suffolk more generally) despite its cost advantages. This is perhaps surprising given the town’s proximity; however it appears that the prestige of a Cambridge postcode cannot usually be matched by alternative locations such as Haverhill, particularly with regard to higher value office and R&D users.
4.9 The latest economic evidence prepared on behalf of Cambridge City Council and South Cambridgeshire District Council5 suggests that firms looking for space outside Cambridge city itself contemplate the surrounding towns as alternative locations. The peripheral towns and villages around Cambridge which include Huntingdon, St Ives, Ely, Newmarket, Haverhill and St Neots provide a significant amount of accommodation occupied by small businesses which service the Cambridge market. There is however an ongoing preference from most occupiers to stay within close proximity to the city centre if at all possible to secure their clients.
4.10 There is also some overlap between Bury St Edmunds and Newmarket in property market terms (facilitated by the A14 corridor) although these linkages are not characterised as being particularly strong.
4.11 Within this context, it is possible to note a divide in property market terms between St Edmundsbury’s two main centres and the remainder of the Borough which is largely rural in nature and characterised by a number of small scale rural employment sites/locations in and around villages such as Clare and Chedburgh.
4.12 Further commentary is provided below on each of the main commercial centres within St Edmundsbury.
Bury St Edmunds
4.13 Bury St Edmunds is an established employment location and benefits from its location straddling the A14 strategic corridor. It is home to a number of relatively sizeable business parks with the Suffolk Business Park being the most prominent, located on the eastern edge of the town adjacent to the A14. This represents the Borough’s premier office location offering some of the newest and best quality stock in St Edmundsbury, as well as a range of good quality industrial space. A large area of land to the east is allocated for expansion of Suffolk Business Park, with a relief road connecting the A14 required to open up the site almost complete. Other significant business parks in the town include Northern Way, Western Way and Eastern Way.
5 Employment Land Review Update and Review of Selective Management of Employment Policies, Report to South Cambridgeshire District Council and Cambridge City Council, SQW July 2012
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Haverhill
4.14 Haverhill to the south of the Borough has accommodated a significant scale of new development and expansion over the last few decades, with residential development driving this growth more recently.The town is predominately an industrial location, with office space generally ancillary to industrial. It has traditionally been perceived by the market as a lower value business location but has been successful in attracting and growing firms, and now accommodates a sizeable stock of space and businesses. The main business parks in Haverhill are located off the A1017 to the south of Haverhill and include Homefield Road, The Haverhill Industrial Estate and Falconer Road. Industrial space is mixed in nature, with both manufacturing/workshop and distribution/logistics space on offer.
4.15 As noted above, Haverhill’s proximity to the Greater Cambridge sphere of economic influence has played a role in driving occupier activity and demand in the town over recent years, although mainly from an industrial perspective. There are proposals for a ‘Haverhill Research Park’ on a site on the western fringe of the town, with planning consent for 450,000sq.ft of B1 R&D/Office accommodation over 4 plots, although to date market interest has been insufficient to bring forward any development, despite having been marketed over the last four years. Market Segments
Industrial
4.16 St Edmundsbury has a strong and active industrial market, with the majority of activity concentrated within the towns of Bury St Edmunds (which benefits from its A14 corridor location) and Haverhill. Historically there has been a good supply of land for new development, on sites circumnavigating the town of Bury St Edmunds and on sites to the south of Haverhill.
4.17 Distribution and logistics represents the strongest driver of industrial space and has outpaced demand for more traditional industrial stock reflecting a wider structural shift in the economy away from production towards consumption and services. The area isn’t currently regarded as a strategic distribution location, although the forthcoming extension to the Suffolk Business Park (to the east of Bury St Edmunds, adjoining the A14) and the scale of development that could be accommodated on this site has the potential to make the Borough more important strategically.
4.18 Industrial occupiers are increasingly seeking flexibility of use (typically a mix of B1c/B8) and demand for premises spans all size categories, but with the majority of enquiries exceeding 20,000sqft. The macro shift in economic activity away from manufacturing to distribution is reflected in a general pattern of demand for larger scale units (100,000sqft+) in the Borough, although the Borough’s stock of industrial space comprises very few premises of this size. At the other end of the spectrum, occupier demand is also steady for small industrial premises between 1,000sqft and 2,000sqft in size available on a freehold basis which tend to cater for the start-up end of the market.
4.19 Much of the industrial market activity in St Edmundsbury is accounted for by the churn of existing local occupiers either looking to expand or relocate. Although demand is mainly localised, this is not always the case and enquiries do come from time to time from firms outside the area (although generally from no further than East Anglia), facilitated by the A14 corridor and the connections this provides between Bury St Edmunds and the wider sub-region.
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4.20 Against the backdrop of strong demand for industrial space over recent years, development of new space in St Edmundsbury has been relatively limited and this has resulted in an undersupply of stock to meet market demand. Local property agents report that they are often unable to satisfy enquiries for industrial space, and this position is not unique to St Edmundsbury, with tightening stocks of industrial space reported across the wider West Suffolk area. Agents note a particular pinch point/gap in supply within the 20,000sqft + bracket.
4.21 Despite the buoyant nature of the industrial property market and strong occupier demand, market agents note that the relative values between the cost of land and development and achievable rents/values are currently insufficient for speculative development to occur in the majority of locations in West Suffolk and this is unlikely to change over the short term, placing further pressure on existing industrial supply.
4.22 Notwithstanding this, there are some examples of speculative industrial development that has occurred or is currently underway within the Borough, including a terrace development of eight flexible B class units representing the first phase of development at Risby Business Park just off of the Newmarket Road approximately 3 miles west of Bury St Edmunds; and a scheme of 17 small business units (ranging in size from 1,400sq.ft to 3,400sq.ft) at Oaklands Park in the Rougham Hill area of Bury St Edmunds. These are rare examples and are reported to have only been financially viable due to the longstanding ownership of the sites, whereby the developer has not had to pay current market rates to purchase the land.
4.23 The table below illustrates the typical asking rents for industrial and office space within St Edmundsbury and nearby locations. Bury St Edmunds generally commands a premium over other Suffolk centres in terms of industrial space, but is more competitive on office rents. Rental levels of industrial property in Haverhill are similar to other Suffolk locations such as Mildenhall and Newmarket, and although the town currently accommodates very limited office stock, this could change in future if the Haverhill Research Park is developed and this could command some of the highest office rents in the wider sub-region (Table 4.1).
Table 4.1 Industrial & Office Rents
Location Industrial Offices (£ / sqft) (£ / sqft) Bury St Edmunds £4 - £10 £10 - £14 Haverhill £4 - £6 £15† Newmarket £4 - £8 £12 - £15 Mildenhall £4 - £6 n/a Brandon £3 - £5 n/a Thetford £3.50 - £5 £7 - £12 Cambridge £9 - £10 £16 - £34 Norwich £3.75 - £5 £10 - £14.50
Source: Colliers Rents Map 2015 / EGi Property Link / Discussions with local agents †Possible rents at Haverhill Research Park (high quality R&D and office park, currently being marketed but not yet built)
4.24 In terms of future supply, the forthcoming expansion of the Suffolk Business Park has the potential to bring forward around 70ha of new employment land for a mix of B class uses to the east of the town between the current Park and Rougham Trading Estate. The development is dependent on the building of a relief road from the A14 which is currently under construction. Local property agents consider this eastern side of Bury St Edmunds
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to represent a good location for accommodating future industrial growth, capitalising upon its excellent access to the A14 and the existing successful Business Park. In the short term, it has the potential to accommodate latent demand in the Borough’s industrial market (and the wider sub-regional market) for new space subject to viability, which as noted previously is marginal across much of the Borough.
4.25 Over the longer term it has the potential to attract investment from further afield along the A14 corridor and provide the Borough with a genuinely strategic employment location. Part of the Business Park extension has been granted Enterprise Zone (EZ) status and the New Anglia Local Enterprise Partnership notes that the EZ is seeking to create a successful business environment for companies in the digital and new media, food and agriculture and high value manufacturing clusters.
4.26 Notwithstanding the relatively self-contained nature of St Edmundsbury’s commercial property market, the next phase of Suffolk Business Park is likely to face some competition from other strategic employment proposals and sites that are anticipated to come forward over the plan period within the wider sub-region, including Stowmarket EAST offering up to 800,000sq.ft.of office, manufacturing, storage and distribution space over 22ha; and Thetford Sustainable Urban Extension offering up to 19.5ha of employment space across a 285 ha site to the north of the town.
Offices
4.27 The office market in St Edmundsbury is comparably weaker than the industrial market and has been characterised by relatively limited demand over the last few years, although this has started to improve more recently. Bury St Edmunds represents the main office location in the Borough and accommodates both a town centre and out of town office market.
4.28 Large employers tend to locate in newer premises on business parks such as the Suffolk Business Park, with smaller employers tending to prefer town centre or more rural sites which generally accommodate stock of a secondary nature (including period buildings). These smaller office units are occupied by professions serving the local area such as local firms of accountants and lawyers. There is also an element of office as an ancillary use to industrial in many of the industrial estates in Bury St Edmunds and Haverhill. In overall terms, much of the Borough’s existing stock of office space is of secondary or ‘B grade’ quality and this currently limits the ability of the Borough to attract firms seeking top quality ‘Grade A’ office space.
4.29 The Borough’s office market is relatively localised and generally serves local occupiers seeking to upgrade, expand or relocate. Enquiries for office space rarely come from occupiers outside of the Borough and St Edmundsbury is generally unable to compete with the more strategic office centres of Cambridge, Ipswich and Norwich.
4.30 Following the economic downturn and recession, the Borough’s office market is reported to be improving with levels of occupier demand picking up over the last two years. This has had the effect of reducing the surplus of office space which has prevailed within the Borough’s office market historically, to the extent that demand and supply of office space is reported to be fairly well balanced.
4.31 Demand comes from a mix of office-based sectors but is mainly driven by professional services firms and the wider service sector. Requirements generally do not tend to exceed 10,000sqft, although the majority tend to fall within the range of 3,000sqft and 5,000sqft and for good quality, modern space.
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4.32 A key challenge in the current market is providing occupiers with good quality office accommodation, particularly given the limited levels of new office development that have occurred within St Edmundsbury in recent years. Viability remains a key barrier to new office development, with achievable rents currently lagging behind those required to enable new development. Agents also cite difficulties with regards to lease terms, covenant strength and willingness to pay a premium for new, top quality space. Local agents report that in the short term, office occupiers that are unable to find the quality of space they want are compromising and settling for lower grade space (as opposed to relocating elsewhere).
4.33 Table 4.1 above illustrates the typical range in asking rents for office space within St Edmundsbury’s office centres and comparator locations. This shows that Cambridge commands the highest office rents (up to £34sqft for prime stock) within the wider sub- region. By comparison, typical office rents in Bury St Edmunds are considerably lower, but are similar to Newmarket and Norwich.
4.34 The stock of office space in Haverhill is currently very limited (and generally ancillary to industrial uses) although as noted above, there are proposals to develop a new Research Park on the western edge of the town. This development is targeted at the Greater Cambridge market and is being branded as part of the ‘South Cambridge Business and Technology Cluster’. It benefits from Enterprise Zone status (as part of the group of Enterprise Zones that comprise the Cambridge Compass) and is located 17 miles from Cambridge, with good access to the A11/M11 leading to Stansted Airport and London. To date, there has been insufficient market demand to attract any development to take place and local property agents consider the town of Haverhill to lack the prestige that would be necessary to attract occupiers away from the highly successful and popular Cambridge market. Where the town has been successful in attracting occupiers from Cambridge, this has generally focused upon industrial occupiers that place less weight upon a high profile location. Whilst Haverhill is located close to the M11 corridor and the Cambridge Triangle, road access to the M11/A11 and Cambridge via the A1307 is relatively poor. Furthermore, the site developers report that despite receiving some occupier enquiries for the Research Park over recent months and years while the site has been marketed, initial development appraisals indicate that in the current climate, new development of high tech B1 R&D/Office space would be financially unviable. Future prospects for the Research Park therefore remain unclear.
4.35 The recent introduction of Permitted Development Rights (PDR) for change of use from office to residential is reported to have so far had a relatively limited impact upon the office market in St Edmundsbury (and Bury St Edmunds specifically given its dominant office role within the Borough context). To date, the office space that has been lost (such as Old Shire Hall and Garland House in Bury St Edmunds) is considered to have been poorer quality and obsolete stock, and generally not fit-for-purpose with regards to the type of office space in demand from the town’s occupiers. Further analysis based on Council monitoring data is included in Section 3.0. Nevertheless, St Edmundsbury Borough Council will need to carefully monitor any future losses to consider whether measures should be put in place to protect this space or plan for additional provision, particularly if better quality provision becomes at risk in the future. Rural Employment Space
4.36 The rural areas of St Edmundsbury also accommodate provision of employment space. The majority of rural employment sites situated outside of the main towns of Bury St Edmunds and Haverhill are small in scale and accommodate a range of sectors and
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industries but generally B1 and light industrial uses. Many of these are owner occupied, self-contained sites of single use which have grown organically. There are examples of stand-alone rural sites (such as the Gorse Industrial Estate, Barnham) while larger villages such as Clare and Chedburgh are characterised by small ‘business park’ type employment sites (such as Chilton Street Business Park, Clare and Barrow Business Park), although in some cases retail use appears to be encroaching upon more traditional B class uses.
4.37 The Borough’s largest rural employment site is Shepherd’s Grove, a former WWII airfield to the east of the settlement of Stanton in the northeast of the Borough. Whilst the overall site size is large (at around 95ha), not all of this is built out and there are two clusters of industrial units which appear to be popular with local occupiers.
4.38 Demand for rural employment space in St Edmundsbury is reported to be limited but steady, with continued growth of this type of premises considered inevitable to meet the needs of what is essentially a local market consisting of rural businesses which operate in the area. These premises can also play an important role in providing affordable workspace and retaining home based businesses within the local community.
4.39 However, many rurally located employment sites throughout the Borough have poor access to strategic routes such as the A14 and market feedback indicates that the viability of some of these sites for future B class development is questionable due to their peripheral location and more limited demand outside of key centres. The key exception to this is the recent development of Risby Business Park which has excellent access to the A14.
4.40 Many rural businesses face particular challenges to continued economic growth and prosperity, including poor infrastructure and access to facilities (such as high speed broadband), low density of firms leading to a poorer choice of local employment opportunities for rural residents, and limited access to affordable housing for employees in many areas. The availability of broadband and good access is essential to ensuring the growth and expansion of the local rural economy and should continue to be recognised by relevant planning policy in the Borough. Provision for Small Firms/Start-ups
4.41 There appears to be a reasonable level of provision of small scale, flexible business space for SME and start-up firms in the Borough. Menta, the Suffolk Enterprise Agency, provides a range of affordable managed premises at three locations in Bury St Edmunds and Haverhill as well as a range of business support services and networking opportunities. The business centres offer flexible office or workshop accommodation and virtual services and accommodate a varied mix of business occupiers.
4.42 The majority of these are local firms although the centres do attract start-up firms from the wider area including from Cambridgeshire, Essex and elsewhere in Suffolk. In particular, Menta’s two centres in Haverhill are reported to attract occupiers from Cambridge from time to time, due to the town’s location on the ‘cusp’ of the greater Cambridge market. The business centres are reported to be largely fully occupied, and Menta are currently looking at opportunities to develop new facilities in the area to accommodate the latent market demand for small scale, flexible workspace in and around St Edmundsbury. Menta management note that a shortage of ‘move on’ space means that it can be difficult to facilitate the process of occupiers moving out of their centres, thereby freeing up space for new start-up firms.
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4.43 Elsewhere, the Park Farm Business Centre in Fornham St Genevieve just to the north of Bury St Edmunds provides a complex of 19 high specification office premises converted from redundant farm buildings. The first conversion was completed in 1989 with the final stage completed in 2003.
4.44 Given that demand for this type of space is strong and there is very little vacancy within existing enterprise centres, there would appear to be a requirement for additional provision of this type over the short to medium term in St Edmundsbury in order to support start-up activity and the successful growth of SMEs in the Borough. Potential locations to incorporate this space could include town centre developments (such as the Station Hill Development Area in Bury St Edmunds) and well located out of town developments (such as high tech incubator space within the Haverhill Research Park). Needs of Local Businesses
4.45 A business survey was undertaken as part of the study to gain a better understanding of the needs of local businesses operating in the Borough, and the main factors that support and inhibit their growth. This involved a sample of 19 businesses operating across a range of sectors and locations in St Edmundsbury. A summary of the key findings is set out below. It should be noted that only those responses from firms operating within B use class premises have been included within the below analysis. The survey findings are intended to provide a flavour of the issues affecting B class businesses in St Edmundsbury rather than representing a comprehensive overview of business needs in the Borough.
Business Profile
4.46 Survey respondents were primarily based in the main employment centre of Bury St Edmunds (75%), with the other responses coming from a mix of rural villages including Risby and Wickhambrook. Reflecting the existing business base in the Borough, all of the firms that responded were either micro or small sized businesses. Respondents have been located within St Edmundsbury for differing amounts of time, with 62.5% of companies having been located in St Edmundsbury for under 10 years and 37.5% of companies having been located there for over 20 years.
Current Business Premises
4.47 The most common type of employment site that respondents currently occupy is town centre locations (50%), whilst other popular locations included Industrial estate/sites (25%). When asked why they were located on their existing sites, respondents identified key factors such as the availability of premises, transport links, proximity to customers as well as the affordability of rent.
4.48 The majority of businesses were either satisfied or very satisfied with their current business premises, which were cited as adequate for meeting current requirements; however car parking was noted as becoming increasingly problematic. The 37.5% of respondents that were not satisfied cited the difficulty in obtaining larger floorplates and the lack of affordable units as rental rates appear to be increasing at a significant rate. Of particular concern is broadband provision which a number of respondents consider to be providing a barrier to growth.
4.49 When looking for suitable sites and premises to expand, upgrade or relocate to elsewhere in St Edmundsbury, 57% of those that have recently been looking for further premises have experienced difficulties. These centre around the lack of light industrial space available, particularly on larger floorplate sizes. Also of concern has been the location of available sites, with new floorspace coming forward at Rougham cited as unsuitable due
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to its relative distance from Bury St Edmunds train station. Other concerns raised include the lack of office space available within the town centre on a leasehold basis, whilst at the business parks there is reported to be a lack of freehold office space available.
4.50 An assessment of the current condition of the commercial property market in St Edmundsbury showed a mixed perception existed within the business community with regards to the availability of business sites and premises. As can be seen in Figure 4.1 there was generally considered to be an inadequate supply of sites, across a range of locations and sizes amongst respondents.
Figure 4.1 Do you think there is currently an adequate supply of sites/premises in St Edmundsbury?
100 Yes No 80 N/A
60
40
% of Survey Respondents 20
0 Number of Sites Range of Sizes Mix of Tenures Availability of premises to buy
Source: Lichfields analysis
Future Growth Plans
4.51 Some 75% of respondents have indicated they are considering either expanding or relocating their business premises over the next five to ten years. Of those with an intention to grow, 67% believe that they would be able to find either a suitable site within the Borough, expand their existing site, or relocate within the same location that their site currently sits within (Figure 4.2).
4.52 For the 33% that did not feel that they would be able to find suitable premises in St Edmundsbury to accommodate their future needs, they indicated reasons such as lack of sufficient broadband provision that would convince them to stay or that they were a footloose company and would simply decide to move to wherever the most competitive rental values are.
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Figure 4.2 Do you expect you would be able to find a suitable site/premises to accommodate your expansion plans in St Edmundsbury over the next five to ten years?
70 Expand on existing site
60 Relocate to another site within the same locale Relocate to another site within St 50 Edmundsbury Relocate outside the Borough 40
30
20 % of Survey Respondents Survey of % 10
0 Yes No
Source: Lichfields analysis
St Edmundsbury as a Business Location
4.53 One of the survey questions considered infrastructure provision and whether it supported the development of businesses in the Borough, allowing them to grow and thrive. Interestingly responses were mixed, particularly regarding internet provision, with respondents from Bury St Edmunds indicating that they now have access to fibre optic, however other places in the Borough are currently without fast internet connections and this is cited as a key barrier to growth. Summary
4.54 The key points to summarise in terms of commercial property market trends and dynamics in St Edmundsbury are as follows: 1 The Borough’s office and industrial markets are primarily focused within the towns of Bury St Edmunds and Haverhill. Whilst some of the larger villages such as Clare, Chedburgh and Stanton (Shepherd’s Grove) accommodate employment space, this tends to be comparatively smaller in scale. 2 The strategic employment focus in St Edmundsbury is on industrial uses. The Borough’s commercial centres tend to operate in a relatively self-contained way, particularly with regards to Bury St Edmunds. Haverhill does interact with Cambridge to an extent from a commercial property market perspective, although this mainly relates to industrial activity, and it remains difficult to persuade Cambridge based office occupiers to relocate to West Suffolk despite its cost advantages. It is possible to note a divide in property market terms between St Edmundsbury’s two main centres and the remainder of the Borough which is largely rural in nature. 3 St Edmundsbury has a strong and active industrial market, with distribution and logistics representing the strongest driver of demand for space. The area isn’t currently regarded as a strategic distribution location, although the forthcoming
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extension to the Suffolk Business Park has the potential to make the Borough more important strategically. 4 Development of new space in St Edmundsbury has been relatively limited and this has resulted in an undersupply of stock to meet market demand. Local property agents report that they are often unable to satisfy enquiries for industrial space, with a particular pinch point/gap in supply within the 20,000sqft + bracket. However, the relative values between the cost of land and development and achievable rents/values are currently insufficient for speculative development to occur in the majority of locations in West Suffolk (although there are a couple of recent exceptions). 5 The office market in St Edmundsbury is comparably weaker than the industrial market and has been characterised by relatively limited demand over the last few years. It is relatively localised and generally serves local occupiers seeking to upgrade, expand or relocate. Occupier demand has picked up over the last two years, with an increase in take-up reducing the surplus of office space which has prevailed within the Borough’s office market historically, to the extent that demand and supply of office space is reported to be fairly well balanced. 6 A key challenge in the current market is providing occupiers with good quality office accommodation, and viability remains a key barrier to new office development, with achievable rents currently lagging behind those required to enable new development.
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5.0 Functional Economic Market Area
5.1 This section summarises the various Functional Economic Market Areas (FEMAs) that operate across St Edmundsbury and the wider sub-region in order to provide an understanding of the various economic relationships, linkages and flows which characterise the sub-regional economy. Rationale
5.2 When planning for economic growth, the Government’s Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) states that economic needs should be assessed in relation to relevant FEMAs, that is, the spatial level at which local economic and market actually operate. In most cases, these will extend beyond existing administrative boundaries such as local authority boundaries.
5.3 The PPG recognises that no single source of data is comprehensive in identifying appropriate assessment areas and highlights a number of factors to be considered when assessing and defining relevant FEMAs, including travel to work areas, housing market areas, service markets for consumers and transport networks. In order to define a FEMA for St Edmundsbury, a number for these key market and catchment areas are considered, to allow the key drivers and dynamics that impact on the local economy to be identified and further assessed. These themes are considered in turn below. Labour Market Areas
5.4 The latest commuting flows data from the 2011 Census can be used to define Travel to Work Areas (TTWAs) in order to consider the relationship between where people live and where they work.
Commuting Flows
5.5 Commuting patterns to and from St Edmundsbury can be analysed using the latest travel- to-work flow data from the 2011 Census. Table 5.1 and Figure 5.1 below summarise a number of key commuting indicators for St Edmundsbury.
5.6 In 2011, a total of 17,595 working residents commuted outside the Borough for their employment, mainly to the adjoining and nearby areas of Cambridge, Forest Heath and South Cambridgeshire. At the same time, 19,560 working residents commuted into the Borough for their employment, mainly from the local authority areas of Mid Suffolk, Breckland and Babergh.
5.7 On this basis, St Edmundsbury is characterised as a net importer of labour, with a net inflow of 1,965 workers at the time of the 2011 Census. The self-containment rate for St Edmundsbury was 69.1% (Table 5.1).
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Table 5.1 2011 Commuting Data for St Edmundsbury
Indicator St Edmundsbury Total working residents† 56,839 Total workplace workers* 58,804 Live and work in authority* 39,280 Resident self-containment rate* 69.1% Out-commuting workers¥ 17,595 Cambridge, Forest heath and South Top out-commuting destinations Cambridgeshire In-commuting workers 19,560 Top in-commuting destinations Mid-Suffolk, Breckland and Babergh Net in-flow of workers 1,965 Source: 2011 Census / Lichfields analysis † Includes those that work mainly at or from home, at an offshore installation, outside the UK, and with no fixed employment location (in line with ONS guidance on defining resident and workplace workforce) * Includes those Forest Heath residents that work mainly at or from home, at an offshore installation, and with no fixed employment location (in line with ONS guidance on defining resident and workplace workforce) ¥ Includes those Forest Heath residents that work outside the UK (in line with ONS guidance on defining resident and workplace workforce)
Figure 5.1 Travel-to-work Flows for St Edmundsbury, 2011
Source: 2011 Census / Lichfields analysis
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5.8 More detailed analysis of travel-to-work flows at the Middle Super Output Area (MSOA) level shows some key differences in terms of the origin and destination locations of in and out commuters to and from St Edmundsbury.
5.9 The flow of in-commuters to the Borough is strongest from authority areas to the north west and south east of St Edmundsbury, notably Breckland in the north west and Babergh in the south east.
5.10 Meanwhile, out commuting flows of working residents are most significant to the west of the Borough, to South Cambridgeshire, Cambridge and Forest Heath. This highlights the ‘pull’ effect that the large employment centres of Cambridge have, in particular the out of town science and business parks which attract a large number of St Edmundsbury residents.
5.11 MSOA level commuting flows data underlines the strong functional economic linkages in labour market terms between the market town of Bury St Edmunds and Cambridge, particularly in out-commuting terms.
ONS Travel to Work Areas
5.12 The Office for National Statistics (ONS) defines labour market areas as those areas where the majority of the resident population also works in the same area. Defining labour market areas requires analysis of commuting flows data to identify the Travel to Work Areas (TTWAs) of a local economy. The standard definition of TTWAs offered by the ONS is that they are the area from which at least 75% of an area’s resident workforce is employed, and at least 75% of the people who work in the area also reside. The area must also have a working population of at least 3,500.
5.13 TTWAs represent the area from which local businesses are most likely to recruit their employees, while key strategic routes have the ability to extend these TTWAs well beyond the immediate sub-region.
5.14 In 2015, the ONS used 2011 Census data on home and work addresses to define 228 TTWAs that cover the whole of the UK. This analysis identifies two TTWAs that cover St Edmundsbury Borough; namely Bury St Edmunds and Cambridge (as shown in Figure 5.2)
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Figure 5.2 St Edmundsbury Travel to Work Areas, 2011
Source: ONS – Based on 2011 Census commuting data
5.15 The Cambridge TTWA comprises the south western portion of St Edmundsbury in addition to large swathes of East Cambridgeshire and South Cambridgeshire, as well as parts of Essex and extending down into Hertfordshire. In spatial terms, Cambridge TTWA is one of the largest in the greater South East.
5.16 The Bury St Edmunds TTWA is geographically much smaller than the Cambridge TTWA and covers a significant amount of St Edmundsbury Borough, as well as the northern parts of Babergh District (including the town of Sudbury).
5.17 A comparison of the 2011 based ONS TTWAs with the equivalent analysis prepared using the 2001 Census commuting data (as summarised in Figure 5.3) identifies some small changes to the Bury St Edmunds TTWA which has increased in size to extend further South East into the former (i.e. 2001) Ipswich and Colchester TTWAs. The Cambridge TTWA has also grown substantially in size and now extends much further south into parts of Essex and Hertfordshire when compared with the equivalent 2001 analysis.
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Figure 5.3 St Edmundsbury Travel to Work Areas, 2001
Source: ONS - Based on 2001 Census commuting data
St Edmundsbury Local Travel to Work Area
5.18 Commuting data from the 2011 Census also allows travel-to-work patterns to be examined at a more detailed geographic scale, with travel-to-work flows provided at the Middle Super Output Area (MSOA) level. This level of analysis provides a much more detailed understanding of the travel-to-work linkages between St Edmundsbury and other centres within the surrounding sub-region.
5.19 The most significant destinations for out-commuting employed residents from St Edmundsbury at the MSOA level are concentrated around the key economic centres of Cambridge (Figure 5.4), as well as high levels of out commuting to secondary centres including Mildenhall and Newmarket in adjoining Forest Heath.
5.20 The origins of in-commuting workers to St Edmundsbury are more widely dispersed, although there are some concentrations to the north of the Borough in Thetford and Brandon (Figure 5.5). The lack of any in commuting from Cambridge highlights the strength of Cambridge as an employment location in itself compared to the offer in St Edmundsbury.
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Figure 5.4 Out-Commuting Flows at MSOA Level for St Edmundsbury, 2011
Source: Census 2011 / Lichfields analysis
Figure 5.5 In-Commuting Flows at MSOA Level for St Edmundsbury, 2011
Source: Census 2011 / Lichfields analysis
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5.21 It is also possible to use the Census 2011 commuting flows data for St Edmundsbury to define a local travel to work area for the authority. This uses the ONS definition of a travel to work area being the area from which at least 75% of the authority’s resident workforce is employed, and at least 75% of the people who work in the authority also reside.
5.22 The local travel to work area for St Edmundsbury is presented in Figure 5.6 below, with the MSOAs that fall within the authority’s local travel to work area shaded in green. It is for the most part self-contained and does not reach far beyond the authority area itself. Outside of the Borough boundary, its local TTWA extends to the western parts of Mid Suffolk as well as the eastern parts of Forest Heath. St Edmundsbury’s TTWA also extends slightly into the northern parts of Braintree and Babergh (Figure 5.6).
Figure 5.6 Local Travel to Work Area for St Edmundsbury, 2011
Source: Census 2011 / Lichfields analysis
Housing Market Areas
5.23 Housing market areas are a useful input to the process of considering the spatial extent of FEMAs due to the influence they have upon travel-to-work and labour market flows. Close relationships typically occur between the boundaries of sub-regional housing markets and sub-regional labour markets (generally referred to as Travel to Work Areas as explored above). Unless resident workers are taking a job in another location outside an acceptable journey time, they are likely to look for somewhere to live within the same travel to work area if they move house.
5.24 The PPG defines a housing market area as:
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“a geographical area defined by household demand and preferences for all types of housing, reflecting the key functional linkages between places where people live and work. It might be the case that housing market areas overlap.” (PPG para 010)
5.25 In 2013, a Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) was undertaken for the Cambridge sub-region and this analysed a range of economic and housing market indicators to define a Cambridge Sub-region Housing Market Area (HMA) comprising all of Cambridgeshire and the western part of Suffolk.
5.26 The spatial extent of the Cambridge HMA is shown in Figure 5.7 below, comprising the local authority areas of Cambridge, East Cambridgeshire, Fenland, Forest Heath, Huntingdonshire, South Cambridgeshire and St Edmundsbury.
Figure 5.7 Cambridge Sub-region Housing Market Area
Source: Cambridgeshire Insight, 2013 Strategic Housing Market Assessment for the Cambridge housing sub-region
5.27 This indicates that from a housing market perspective, St Edmundsbury shares strong economic linkages with adjoining Forest heath and other parts of Cambridgeshire. However, it has comparatively weaker economic linkages with other parts of Suffolk and Norfolk to the east and north respectively.
5.28 It should be noted that an updated SHMA for St Edmundsbury is currently being prepared in order to consider more recent analysis of migration, commuting and other economic data, however at the time of writing the SHMA update is unavailable.
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Commercial Property Market Areas
5.29 Commercial property market intelligence represents a key element to defining FEMAs as the geographical extent of markets can be defined by the location of customers, supply chains, competitors (including competing employment schemes) and enquiries, as well as the proximity to key transport infrastructure.
5.30 Much of the activity occurring within a commercial property market represents the gradual churn of occupiers, as a company’s location can often be largely dictated by the need to be easily accessible to where the majority of their staff reside.
Market Geography
5.31 As noted in section 4.0, the key driver of St Edmundsbury’s commercial property market is industrial activity, facilitated by the presence of the A14 strategic route passing through the centre of the Borough. This strategic employment focus upon industrial uses echoes the situation within other parts of West Suffolk further along the A14 corridor, including neighbouring Forest Heath and nearby Mid Suffolk.
5.32 Despite the presence of the A14, St Edmundsbury’s commercial centres tend to operate in a relatively self-contained way, particularly with regards to Bury St Edmunds. This characteristic differs to the geography of commercial property markets elsewhere in Suffolk, where large areas tend to operate within the ‘hinterland’ of urban centres such as Cambridge or Ipswich. There is some overlap between Bury St Edmunds and Newmarket in property market terms (facilitated by the A14 corridor) although these linkages are not characterised as being particularly strong.
5.33 The Borough’s other main commercial centre Haverhill lacks the presence of a strategic transport route but is located near to the M11 corridor and Stansted Airport. The town’s proximity to Cambridge has been a driver or influence in commercial property market terms in recent years and Haverhill has had some success in attracting Cambridge developers and investors such as HID Corporation. Whilst the town does interact with Cambridge to an extent from a commercial property market perspective, this mainly relates to industrial activity, and it remains difficult to persuade Cambridge based office occupiers to relocate to Haverhill (and West Suffolk more generally) despite its cost advantages.
5.34 Within this context, it is possible to note a divide in property market terms between St Edmundsbury’s two main centres and the remainder of the Borough which is largely rural in nature and characterised by a number of small scale rural employment sites/locations in and around villages such as Clare and Chedburgh. A number of distinct economic geographies and commercial property market sub-areas that operate within and around St Edmundsbury can be identified as follows:
Bury St Edmunds: this market is relatively self-contained and tends to service the surrounding locality. Whilst there are some linkages and property market relationships between Bury St Edmunds and other A14 locations such as Newmarket and Cambridge, these linkages are not characterised as being particularly strong.
The Cambridge market continues to have a strong influence on the southern parts of St Edmundsbury, although historically these linkages and flows tend to be industrial in nature.
St Edmundsbury accommodates a number of self-contained rural employment locations such as Chedburgh and Clare, which operate with few linkages to outside markets and serve the surrounding vicinity.
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Transport and Communications Connectivity
5.35 Transport accessibility is strongly linked with the geography of FEMAs, with the strategic transport network in particular playing a key role in shaping commercial property, labour and housing market flows.
5.36 St Edmundsbury is limited with regards to strategic rail infrastructure connections with only one train station located in the Borough. This is situated in the town of Bury St Edmunds and offers services to Cambridge in the west and Ipswich in the east, however it lacks any direct route through to London. Services are limited, with only one train per hour running from Cambridge to Ipswich through Bury St Edmunds and one train every 2 hours from Peterborough.
5.37 This issue is recognised by the New Anglia LEP which identifies a key priority to introduce a direct hourly passenger service from Ipswich to Peterborough which is estimated to generate £220m in economic benefits for Suffolk, Norfolk and Cambridgeshire over a 60 year period6 There is also the desire to improve line speeds on the Ipswich to Cambridge line as well as an overarching ambition to improve rolling stock and stations across Suffolk.
5.38 It is also understood that Abellio, as part of their new franchise, will be replacing existing rolling stock with new trains and will deliver an hourly Colchester to Ipswich service, and the Borough has aspirations for a twice per hour Ipswich to Cambridge service. Work is also underway as part of East West Rail considering the feasibility of an eastern section.
5.39 The A14 connects the Port of Felixstowe to the Midlands. The New Anglia LEP Strategic Economic Plan states that port traffic is expected to increase significantly over the current decade and this has led to improvements being started further along the A14 at Kettering and Calthorpe in Northamptonshire. It is also recognised within the plan that additional capacity is required on both rail and trunk road networks that connect to the sub-regions’ urban areas to each other and to the rest of the country.
5.40 In addition to transport infrastructure, the lack of up to date digital infrastructure is considered to be a particular challenge in both Norfolk and Suffolk, as both counties have highly-dispersed economies with as many businesses in rural areas as in urban areas. A large proportion of businesses in the New Anglia LEP area will not be served by commercial roll-outs of high speed broadband, which presents a significant barrier to economic growth going forward. Summary
5.41 Based upon the above assessment of the various FEMAs that operate within and across St Edmundsbury (in terms of commercial property markets, labour markets, housing markets and transport connectivity), it is possible to consider the spatial extent of the core FEMA for the authority. This core FEMA encompasses those local authority areas that the evidence indicates consistently have an inter-relationship with St Edmundsbury.
5.42 As shown in Figure 5.8, layering the various FEMAs identified for the authority on top of one another allows the core FEMA for St Edmundsbury to be identified.
6 New Anglia Rail Prospectus August 2015
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Figure 5.8 Core Functional Economic Market Area for St Edmundsbury
Source: Lichfields analysis, drawing upon a range of sources
5.43 This illustrates that St Edmundsbury’s core FEMA incorporates a number of surrounding and nearby local authorities, predominately Forest Heath, Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire. Its spatial extent reaches beyond the Borough boundary, taking in the settlements of Newmarket, Mildenhall, Cambridge, Saffron Walden and Stowmarket, as well as the key settlements within the Borough of St Edmundsbury itself. Parts of East Cambridgeshire, Babergh, Mid Suffolk, Breckland and Uttlesford also play a role in influencing the FEMA for St Edmundsbury but to a lesser extent. Economic flows and relationships between St Edmundsbury and eastern parts of Suffolk appear to be weaker than those with Cambridgeshire.
5.44 Housing market area factors tend to have the greatest influence in shaping the western extent of the Borough’s FEMA, with evidence pointing to a strong relationship with Cambridgeshire in housing market terms. St Edmundsbury’s labour market relationships tend to be more localised, while it is possible to identify two main commercial property market areas operating within and across the Borough (Bury St Edmunds and Greater Cambridge).
5.45 St Edmundsbury’s core FEMA is relatively self-contained in overall terms, with market areas and flows generally not extending too far beyond the authority boundary, with the key exception being the city of Cambridge which exerts a relatively significant influence over the Borough from an economic perspective.
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6.0 Review of Employment Sites Portfolio
6.1 This section presents the findings of an assessment of employment land supply in the Borough and considers the characteristics and quality of existing and potential employment sites in St Edmundsbury and their suitability to meet future employment development needs.
6.2 In consultation with the Council it was agreed that the assessment should focus on 48 sites that are either currently in employment use or identified as potential employment sites within the St Edmundsbury Vision 2031 site allocation Local Plan documents7. The location of the assessed sites is shown on the map in Figure 6.1 below.
6.3 Each of the 48 identified sites were inspected and assessed by Lichfields in accordance with the former ODPM Guidance on Employment Land Reviews and more recent PPG, and assessed against the following criteria: a Strategic and local road access; b Proximity to labour and services; c Compatibility of adjoining uses; d Site size, characteristics and potential development constraints; and e Attractiveness to the market, including vacancy and market activity on sites.
6.4 In addition to the above site criteria, the assessment also considered other site factors such as their policy status, planning constraints, suitability for specific uses, and any key barriers to delivery of undeveloped sites. Although flood risk is also considered as part of this assessment, it is recognised that being in a flood zone does not necessarily preclude some types of commercial uses from coming forward for development.
6.5 Individual plans for assessed sites are included in Appendix 5, while details of the criteria used to assess these sites are contained in Appendix 6. Tables summarising the assessment of each site against these appraisal criteria are also included at Appendix 7.
6.6 It should be noted that the assessment process in itself does not necessarily provide a complete picture of the local significance of certain sites. For example a site could be assessed to have the potential to satisfy particular business and sector needs (i.e. which can be important reasons for retaining the site) even if it does not perform well against conventional site assessment criteria. A wider commentary is therefore provided on each site below to supplement the formal scoring exercise.
7 Bury St Edmunds Vision 2031, Haverhill Vision 2031 and Rural Vision 2031 (September 2014)
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Figure 6.1 Map of St Edmundsbury Sites Assessed
Source: Lichfields
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6.7 It is also important to note that the assessment is based on current conditions and intrinsic qualities of sites and that the associated scoring has been derived on this basis. It is possible that the scoring and relative rankings of sites could change in the future if measures were put in place to enhance their functioning as employment sites, for example through new infrastructure and servicing. General Employment Areas and Rural Employment Areas
6.8 The Bury St Edmunds, Haverhill and Rural Vision 2031 site allocation documents designate the following sites as General Employment Areas and Rural Employment Areas under Policies BV14, HV9 and RV4 respectively which will be protected for employment purposes. These sites are considered in turn below.
Bury St Edmunds
BV14(a) Bury St Edmunds, Anglian Lane [1]
6.9 This is a medium sized employment area (6.22ha) that sits adjacent to the A14. Despite close proximity to the strategic road network, link roads leading into the site are poor and traverse residential areas, which have significant amounts of on street parking, further hindering access. It is also necessary for traffic to go through the north eastern part of Bury St Edmunds town centre, with Junction 43 of the A14 also providing access to the Tesco superstore. As such, traffic is highly congested at this point and road access can be considered to be relatively poor. The industrial units on the site are of reasonable quality and unlike some of the other sites in the Borough, a small number of larger floorplates. These appear to be well occupied and meeting a local need.
BV14(b), BV15(a) Bury St Edmunds, Barton Road [2]
6.10 Barton Road is a fairly small employment area (4.35ha) which sits adjacent to a relatively extensive retail park (The Bartons Retail Park) which contains a large Farmfoods store and factory shop. The units on the industrial estate are relatively low profile and of average quality although there is extensive provision of on-site parking. Vacancy levels seem fairly high, with two out of the seven units vacant at the time of the site visit. This seems surprising given the excellent road links to the site, although the units that are on offer at nearby Chapel Pond Hill are generally of larger floorplates and higher quality and this may be drawing occupiers away.
BV14(c), BV15(b) Bury St Edmunds, Blenheim Park [3]
6.11 The site covers 10.49ha and is located on the south western fringe of Bury St Edmunds town centre. The site has a number of large, Grade A floorplates which include Glasswells which has a large logistics operation on the site, as well as a new car showroom. This is a mixed use site, with an Aldi store located towards the centre and there are no obvious vacancies. All plots appear to have been built out which further reinforces the market attractiveness of the site.
BV14(d), BV15(c) Bury St Edmunds, Hollow Road, British Sugar [4]
6.12 This is a very large employment site (60.75ha) which is located directly off the A14 at Junction 43. The site is solely occupied by British Sugar, and the continued presence of a large company has ensured that the factory units have remained well maintained. Whilst the site’s intrinsic qualities make it a good employment location with strong road access,
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due to the specialist nature of the current occupier it is likely that significant works would be required to ensure the site could be re-occupied by another occupier.
BV14(e) Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk Business Park [5]
6.13 The Business Park site covers an area of 28.35ha and is characterised by Grade A, large industrial floorplates with high occupancy rates. Road access is very good, with direct access onto the A14. The site is located within close proximity to the residential development in Moreton Hall, but this is well buffered from the industrial estate by planting along the edge of Bedingfeld Way. This employment area differs from some of the other sites in the area in that there are no small industrial units, but instead offers a range of large Grade A floorplates.
BV14(f) Bury St Edmunds, Chapel Pond Hill [6]
6.14 The site (20.09ha) sits adjacent to the British Sugar site, and has direct access to the A14 via Junction 43. The site has a number of larger floorplates which are of average quality, with one of the major occupiers being Biffa, which has a waste disposal site and depot. Despite the average quality of the industrial units, there appear to be high levels of occupancy which suggest that the area is meeting a local need and is also a reflection of the very strong strategic transport links.
BV14(g), BV15(d) Bury St Edmunds, Eastern Way [7]
6.15 The site benefits from strong access to the A14, however public transport access is very poor with no local bus stop or train station nearby. The site covers an area of 17.63ha and is typically characterised by a mixture of 1960s and 1970s light industrial units. Some of the units in the south eastern part of the site are fairly close to built-up residential areas, although this doesn’t seem to be causing a problem for occupiers. There does not appear to be any vacancies on site. Overall the site scores well against a range of criteria.
BV14(h) Bury St Edmunds, Etna Road, Enterprise Park [8]
6.16 The site sits within close proximity of the A14 but also has fairly strong public transport links with a bus stop within 5-10 minutes’ walk and Bury St Edmunds train station an approximately 25 minute walk. There is some residential use to the rear of the site which backs directly onto the link road into the enterprise park. There are a mix of uses on the site with a Crossfit gym, a number of smaller light industrial units and some relatively low quality office space. The light industrial units appear to be well occupied but are single storey and of average quality which would suggest that they are meeting a local need for relatively inexpensive industrial units in this location.
BV14(i), BV15(e) Bury St Edmunds, Mildenhall Road [9]
6.17 This site is located on the northern periphery of Bury St Edmunds and covers an area of 14.27ha. Access to the site is facilitated by the A1101 with the site having two separate access points, one of which is directly for the main occupier, Mizkan. The units that Mizkan occupy appear to be rather run down in appearance and are generally fairly dated. Other units on site are more modern with a number of the industrial units being of Grade A quality with large floorplates. The site is generally considered to be a strong employment location, although further expansion potential in the future is limited due to the presence of a golf course which sits to the rear of the site.
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BV14(j) Bury St Edmunds, Moreton Hall [10]
6.18 The site (18.14ha) is located just off Junction 44 of the A14 which also provides access to the A134. Link roads into the site are good, with wide roads providing easy access for large vehicles and low levels of on street parking. Units are of average quality and there are fairly intensive levels of development within the central to eastern part of the site, with many small, light industrial units. Towards the western edge of the site there are similar light industrial units but development is lower density, with significant amounts of car parking. This has the potential in the future to facilitate the development of more units.
BV14(k), BV15(f) Bury St Edmunds, Northern Way [11]
6.19 Northern Way is located a short drive from Junction 43 of the A14 although this requires driving along Mildenhall Road which goes through a densely residential area. There is a bus stop that is located opposite the site, although this appears to have an infrequent service. The site is bounded by residential use to the south of the site, although this is well buffered by significant hedging and tree line. The site itself is very flat, covering 15.56ha and has a wide range of different unit sizes and conditions. In overall terms, this is considered to be a fairly average quality employment site, although expansion is possible to the west of the site (examined in further detail in site CS11, CS12 and BV3).
BV14(l), BV15(g) Bury St Edmunds, Western Way [12]
6.20 Western Way is a mixed use employment site which covers an area of 18.72ha. There is a mix of office and industrial use on site, with Havebury offices an example of a Grade A office occupier on site. The industrial offering is of a mixed quality, with some larger 1970s floorplates as well as some more modern, smaller light industrial units. There is also a retail offering within the employment site with an Asda superstore towards the centre. The site would appear to be attractive to the market with high occupancy levels and this is supported by the excellent road access that the site has, with direct links to Junction 42 of the A14 via the A1302.
BV14(m) Bury St Edmunds, Greene King, Friars Lane (South) [13]
6.21 This site covers 5.53ha and is the location of the Greene King car park and warehouse. Whilst the location would not typically be suitable for warehouse use in amongst a dense residential area, the presence of a private road to access the A1302 link road ensures that strategic road access is good. A limiting factor however, is that despite being a five minute drive from junction 44 of the A14, the A1302 link road does pass through heavily residential areas. Local access is very good, with bus stops within walking distance of the site and the train station within 20 minutes walking distance.
BV14(m) Bury St Edmunds, Greene King, Friars Lane (North) [14]
6.22 This is a very small site (1.37ha) which is situated on the northern side of Westgate St. Whilst Greene King’s factory sits to the south; the northern half of the employment site contains a number of visitor attractions, including the brewery museum with associated guided tours. Access roads are very narrow, and if the site was to be considered on its own, and not in conjunction with the southern site, there is very limited car parking provision. The factory unit itself appears to be in good condition, but considering the single occupier status of the site, it is unclear as to whether another single occupier would want to take on such a large factory unit in this constrained location.
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BV14(n) Rougham Industrial Estate [15]
6.23 Rougham industrial estate is situated just east of the Bury St Edmunds urban area and covers an area of approximately 21.3ha. The site has direct access onto the A14 via Junction 45 which is a relatively new section of road, completed in 2006 which was part of a significant improvement programme for the A14. As such, strategic road access is strong, with roads leading into the site wide in nature with little on street parking. This is due to the prevalence of on-site parking at the units within the industrial estate which are a mix of light industrial and distribution uses. Local accessibility is relatively poor however, with no public transport links although it should be noted that this is not a particularly strong consideration due to the nature of industrial use on site.
6.24 The units on site are of a fairly poor quality, with the predominant floorplate size being large, most notably the Precon Products premises. However, these appear to be meeting a local need as vacancy rates are low although there were a couple of ‘To Let’ signs around the site at the time of the visit.
Haverhill
HV9(a) Haverhill, Bumpstead Road [16]
6.25 The site located on Bumsptead Road covers an area of 14.32ha and has been the subject of a modern distribution development located just off the A1017. Due to the proximity to Haverhill town centre, local services are nearby, although public transport connections are relatively poor. Adjoining sites include the Falconer Hill site which comprises a similar mix of both logistics and industrial units.
6.26 The site would appear to be still being built out, with signs up advertising unbuilt plots as well as a 212,000sq.ft unit that is available for rent. All units currently on site comprise large Grade A distribution floorplates. The primary occupier would appear to be Culina logistics, a company that operates nationally, demonstrating the market attractiveness of the site and its strategic road access.
HV9(b) Haverhill, Falconer Road [17]
6.27 The site sits adjacent to the distribution park at Bumpstead Road and retains the benefits of excellent strategic road access. However, access to the site is not as strong, with the access roundabout also serving traffic into the centre of Haverhill. Whilst there are two separate access points via Falconer road and Boundary road, these are relatively narrow, but this is offset by a significant amount of on-site parking. There is a mix of uses on site, with the site largely characterised by medium and large sized industrial units, although a small number of other uses on site are present with a leisure centre on the north western periphery. Vacancy levels appear to be low which, in addition to the modern development taking place at Bumpstead road (noted above), highlights the location’s strength as an area for logistics activity.
HV9(c) Haverhill, Industrial Estate and HV9(d) Haverhill, Homefield Road [18], [19]
6.28 Haverhill Industrial Estate is one of the largest employment sites in the Borough (73.31ha) and contains several large employers with a number of modern, Grade A floorplates. Unlike the other sites located along this corridor of the A1017, it has a large amount of both industrial and office space, and accommodates Sanofi, Europe’s largest pharmaceutical company with a large presence along Rookwood Way.
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6.29 As the site extends back towards the urban area of Haverhill, the northern edge of the site does sit adjacent to a significant amount of residential development. However, there is a local bus stop within walking distance of the site which is currently serviced by a number of bus routes resulting in a half hourly service.
6.30 The Homefield Road site lies adjacent to the industrial estate and contains predominantly low profile units which contain a variety of uses, with employment space characterised by small office and light industrial with a leisure centre also on site. Most plots appear to be occupied reflecting the site’s market attractiveness.
HV9(e) Haverhill, Stour Valley Road [20]
6.31 This is a small site (4.25ha) which has fairly poor strategic road access due to the main road to the site running through the built up area of Haverhill alongside a number of residential dwellings. The local road access is fairly poor, with the entrance to the site via Stour Valley Road which is narrow and despite parking restrictions, appears to attract a number of parked cars.
6.32 Units on site are below average quality with the light industrial units to the rear of the site being single storey. On the other side of Stour Valley Road there is a significant area of hardstanding which appears to have had some form of development on it previously. However as it currently stands, this area of the site remains undeveloped.
Rural and Other Areas
RV4(a) Barrow Business Park [21]
6.33 The site is proposed to be a rural employment area covering 1.07ha. It is difficult to establish the market demand for this site as there are no other sites in employment use nearby. However, given the close proximity to the A14 it is reasonable to suggest that the site would be attractive to some segments of the market. Colethorpe Road acts as the link road to the A14 which experiences light use, however it is fairly narrow and it would therefore appear to be most appropriate for a light industrial or office use to be accommodated at the site.
RV4(b) Chedburgh (South) and Chedburgh (North) [22], [23]
6.34 These two sites sit either side of Bury Road (A143). The southern site covers an area of 9.86ha whilst the northern site is far smaller at just 2ha. The northern site has a sole occupier within the industrial and logistics premises whilst the southern site has two main occupiers. The presence of a small number of occupiers ensures no vacancies in the short term.
6.35 Whilst both sites have direct access onto the A143, it does not enjoy strong links with strategic road infrastructure, and it is necessary to travel either to Bury St Edmunds to the north or Haverhill in the south to connect up to the A134 to allow access to London or the A14 to Cambridge.
RV4(c) Clare, Chilton Street Business Park [24]
6.36 The Chilton Street Business Park is a very small site (0.51ha) that consists of one primary industrial unit with a brick structure at the front. The industrial unit is in reasonable condition and there is an appropriate amount of on-site parking. The site is surrounded by agricultural use so there are no compatibility issues but also no immediate room for uses on the site to be expanded.
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6.37 From a transport perspective, the site is considered to be a poor employment location. Strategic road access requires traversing a number of small villages to join the A134 at Haverhill and there is no form of public transport within walking distance of the site. Due to the small nature of Clare village, there is a limited provision of local services, with the nearest town being Haverhill, approximately a 20 minute drive away. The site is currently occupied although it is difficult to establish whether there would be market demand in this location to re let the property should the current occupier decide to relocate.
RV4(d) Clare, Bridewell Industrial Estate [25]
6.38 This is another small employment site in Clare which covers 0.52ha. In contrast to the previous site, there are a few smaller, light industrial units which appear to be occupied with some lock up space to the rear. Due to the central location of the site, the main road serving the site (B1063) is relatively busy and the access road leading down to the site is narrow with many parked cars. This appears to be due to the lack of on-site parking provision with the units generally of low quality, although good occupancy rates suggest that they are meeting a local need.
RV4(e) Barnham, Station Yard and RV4(e) Gorse Industrial Estate [26], [27]
6.39 These two sites have been grouped together as they both share similar characteristics regarding road access and local accessibility.
6.40 Both of the sites have good access to the A134, although local access roads are of fairly low quality. From a local access perspective there is no public transport provision within walking distance of either site, with the Gorse Industrial Estate in particular representing a relatively remote location with only very limited local services available in Barnham, a 10 minute drive away.
6.41 Due to their location, both sites are only suitable for logistics/industrial use. They have high occupancy rates despite the fairly poor quality of the industrial units, demonstrating that they are meeting a local need.
RV4(f) Ingham [28]
6.42 The site covers an area of 2.32ha and is situated at the intersection of Culford Road and the A134. Access to the northern part of the site is good, with direct access off the A134, leading to an area of significant on-site parking and a relatively good quality office block that is currently occupied. The other units which are of light industrial use are of poorer quality, although they appear to be fully occupied.
6.43 The unit on the southern part of the site is accessed via Culford Road which is narrow and relatively busy due to the presence of nearby housing. The unit itself is fully occupied by a seeds company which appears to be the sole tenant of the site. The unit is not in a particularly good condition and it is unlikely that the unit would be attractive to the wider market should the existing company vacate the site.
RV4(g) Ixworth, Land off Bardwell Road [29]
6.44 This proposed rural employment site covers an area of 1.63ha and sits adjacent to the A1088. Uses bordering the site include farm storage buildings to the south, with agricultural use to the rear. Strategic road access is fairly strong, with only a short drive along the A1088 necessary to link to the A143. Local access is good, with a bus stop located within walking distance on the High Street serviced by bus routes 143/304 and
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338. Given the close proximity of the site to Ixworth village centre and surrounding residential neighbourhoods, there is good access to both a local labour force and services.
6.45 Considering the strong strategic access to the site, there is the potential for either office or light industrial employment development. It is hard to judge market demand due to a lack of similar nearby developments, however the site scores well across a range of suitability criteria and it is considered that a small scale employment development could be supported at this location over the plan period.
RV4(h) Risby Business Park [30]
6.46 This is a small site (3.06ha) that sits on the south western edge of the settlement of Risby. It is proposed as a rural employment area and currently has a small quantity of units on site which have been completed as part of a recent first phase of development. These units are light industrial in nature and considering the good strategic road access, would seem to be an appropriate floorspace type at this location. This road access is facilitated through the recent improvement to access of the A14 at Saxham Business Park. It is noted however, that local services are relatively poor and there is a high reliance on private transport to access the site. As such it is considered that B1 employment uses would be less suited at this location.
RV4(i) Saxham [31]
6.47 Saxham Business Park is located just off Junction 41 of the A14 and subsequently has excellent strategic transport links. Supporting this is a very strong internal road network which has wide roads and high quality surfacing, which serves the predominantly large, Grade A floorplates that are located on site.
6.48 On the western edge of the site is the Saxham Calor Gas Centre, which covers a significant area of land. If the site were to become vacant it is likely that this land could attract new occupiers for both industrial and logistics use, given the lack of vacancy on the rest of the site and the strength of the road.
RV4(j) Stanton, Shepherd’s Grove [32]
6.49 Shepherd’s Grove is a former airfield and is the largest existing employment site in the Borough (95.51ha, although not all of this is built out for employment uses) and is split into two separate areas of industrial units. To the east of the site there are several large industrial floorplates headlined by a DHL logistics centre. These units have reasonably strong access to the strategic transport network via Summer Road. Despite the scale of these units there is only one access point which is a fairly narrow road leading directly off Summer Road.
6.50 The units located in the south west section of the site are much smaller, and accommodate light industrial use. These have fairly poor vehicular access with some of the access routes traversing a new housing development that has taken place on the edge of Stanton.
RV4(k) Wratting (North) and RV4(k) Wratting (South) [33], [34]
6.51 These two sites are situated on opposite sides of the A143, enjoying strong strategic road access. There are also strong public transport links with Blunts Corner bus stop being serviced by bus routes 14/15/25 and X13 resulting in a half hourly service in the morning and an hourly service throughout the rest of the day.
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6.52 The units are of average quality across both of the sites, with Karro acting as a single occupier across both sites. The site is fully developed and there is little room for expansion, with agricultural use surrounding both sites. There would appear to be potential for intensification of development on the southern site, as this is currently low profile in nature. Proposed Employment Sites
6.53 Within the Bury St Edmunds, Haverhill and Rural Vision 2031 site allocation documents, a number of other sites are allocated for mixed use developments and employment development. These sites are considered in turn below.
BV11 Land at Ram Meadow, Bury St Edmunds [35]
6.54 Land at Ram Meadow is a 3.7ha site that is being considered for a mixed use allocation and is currently occupied by a large car park and the football ground of Bury Town Football Club. From a strategic road access perspective, the site is reasonably well placed within a 10 minute drive of the A14. However, local road access traverses a busy residential neighbourhood and these are often congested and fairly narrow. As a result, the site would appear to be unsuitable for a logistics or industrial type development, particularly given the close proximity of the car park area of the site to a number of residential dwellings.
6.55 There could however be potential for the site to provide some form of office space. The site is very flat and development could be delivered in the short term due to the lack of any current development on site.
BV8 Station Hill Development Area and BV9 Tayfen Road Development Area, Bury St Edmunds [36], [37]
6.56 These two sites have been summarised together as they share similar strategic characteristics.
6.57 The Station Hill development area is currently partially developed with significant areas of hardstanding being used as car parking for Bury train station, with an indoor play area also located in a medium sized unit on the southern edge of the site. The western edge of the site appears to have been cleared and could facilitate development in the short term. Given the close proximity to the train station and bus stops this could provide a highly sustainable location for new employment development, particularly for office space. However, industrial development could also be facilitated at this location due to strong road connections to the A14 although there can be substantial traffic build up at the nearby roundabout.
6.58 Tayfen Road development area fits the same strategic criteria; however, less of the site has been developed than at Station Hill and therefore more of the site would appear to be available for development over the short term.
6.59 Masterplans have recently been adopted by the Council to guide the future redevelopment of these sites. The latest versions of these masterplans do not assume any employment (i.e. B class) uses on site.
CS11, CS12, BV3 Bury St Edmunds North West [38]
6.60 The site is located on the north western edge of Bury St Edmunds and adjoins Northern Way, an existing employment area. The indicated boundary of the site covers 77.78ha and is a strategic greenfield site which is undeveloped. Given the location adjacent to
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Northern Way, it would appear to represent a natural expansion site, with strong strategic road access from the A1101 which runs along the front of the site.
6.61 Bury St Edmunds golf club sits to the rear of the site but this is buffered via a treeline that runs along the edge of the site boundary whilst the B1106 forms the western boundary of the site. The site is generally flat and there would not appear to be any significant physical constraints that could prevent development on site. Given the substantial hedging along the eastern edge of the site it would seem reasonable to recommend that any of the site could be used for employment use, although the north west corner would represent a less suitable location, given the proximity to allotments and a residential area.
6.62 A Masterplan for the site was adopted by the Council in December 2013 and incorporates limited provision for small scale B1, potentially office space, within a local centre.
CS11, CS12, BV6 Bury St Edmunds North East [39]
6.63 This strategic greenfield site borders the A143, ensuring that there are excellent links to the strategic road network. Local accessibility however is relatively poor with no nearby public transport links. Considering the industrial nature of nearby employment sites at British Sugar and Chapel Pond Hill, and the aforementioned paucity of transport links, it would seem most appropriate that any employment use on this site be either industrial or logistics based. Market demand for large floorplates in this area appears to be high, as reflected in the low vacancy rates across the nearby Chapel Pond Hill and Eastern Way sites. Barton Road has relatively high vacancy rates and is dominated by smaller, light industrial units. This suggests that there would be reasonable market demand for employment development in this location provided, larger, heavy industrial and logistics floorplates were provided.
6.64 A Masterplan for the site was adopted by the Council in June 2014 and this provides opportunities for B1 use class local employment within a proposed Local Centre.
CS11, CS12, HV4 Haverhill North-East [40]
6.65 This is a very large (175.8ha) strategic greenfield site proposed for mixed use employment development that sits adjacent to the A143. Feasibility of development on site would appear to be good, with the majority of land use currently agricultural with little associated hardstanding. The land is also relatively flat which would support a range of employment floorspace types, although due to the proximity to the A143 rather than A 1017, the site would appear more suited to B1 and B2 use rather than large scale industrial or logistics. Close proximity to Haverhill ensures that local services are reasonable, with a Tesco superstore within a short drive of the site. It is considered that development would be more appropriate to the north and east of the site to minimise impact upon residential amenity of the housing that borders the site to the south west.
6.66 A Masterplan for the site was adopted by the Council in May 2015 and includes around 1.3ha for employment land uses, specifically small scale B1 office development aimed at start-up businesses or local firms in need of flexible space for expansion or contraction.
CS9, BV13 Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk Business Park (East RIE) and CS9, BV13 Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk Business Park (West RIE) [41], [42]
6.67 Both of these sites are designated as proposed strategic employment sites and are located along the A14 on the south eastern edge of Bury St Edmunds. Within this particular corridor of the A14, there are two other significant employment sites, the Rougham Industrial Estate and the Bury St Edmunds Business Park, with the Moreton Hall
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expansion area located at the western edge of this corridor, adjacent to the roundabout at Junction 44.
6.68 The development of the Suffolk Business Park extension to both the west and east of Rougham Industrial Estate would create a seamless ribbon of employment sites along this corridor. Their introduction would establish a strong cluster of employment sites in this location, taking advantage of the transport links and connectivity that the A14 offers. Vacancy levels in and around the Moreton Hall area are low, which suggests that there is demand within the market to facilitate further employment development at this location over the plan period.
CS9, HV10 Hanchet End, Haverhill [43]
6.69 The site sits on the north western edge of Haverhill and has undergone significant amounts of development in the last few years, mainly with a residential focus. The Haverhill Research Park is currently being marketed and plots are serviced, and Taylor Wimpey have built 150 houses there as part of the wider development. The Research Park element of the site has recently been granted Enterprise Zone status and there is 450,000sq.ft of planning consent across four plots for B1 office and R&D space.
6.70 The site benefits from strong transport links a result of the close proximity to the roundabout joining the A1017 and A1307 and represents the most strategically located site in the town.
6.71 Planning permission for the Research Park was granted in 2014 yet there has been limited market interest in occupying the site which remains undeveloped. Whilst the site has a number of positive features such as the strategic road access and local accessibility as well as Enterprise Zone status, it would appear that there is currently low demand for research and science park development in this location in the current market.
HV7(a) Wisdom Toothbrushes Factory, HV7(b) Chauntry Mill High St, HV7(c) Rear of Argos and Post Office, HV7(d) Cleale’s Town Hall Car Park, HV7(e) Brook Service Road Car Park, Haverhill [44], [45], [46], [47], [48]
6.72 These sites have been grouped together due to their close proximity within Haverhill Town Centre which means that they share similar sets of characteristics.
6.73 All of these sites are designated as mixed employment use and range between 0.3 and 1.6ha in size. They all sit directly within the town centre and subsequently have strong local accessibility and are proximate to a wide range of local services. HV7(c), HV7(d) and HV7(e) all represent current car parking sites which are fairly level with no existing infrastructure which would provide a barrier to short term development. Given the constrained nature of the sites with regard to access, office type development would appear to be most appropriate.
6.74 The Wisdom toothbrushes factory site appeared to still be in use at the time of the site visit and this demonstrates that there is current market demand for light industrial use in this location. However, if the site was to be redeveloped, office use would seem more appropriate due to the modern residential development that has taken place along the access road, as well as proximity to the town centre.
6.75 The Chauntry Mill site contains a relatively large floorplate that is of below average quality. From a future employment perspective the location is not particularly strong for employment use, with the site bounded on all sides by residential development. Road access is very poor, with Mill Road providing one narrow point of access which has
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significant amounts of on street parking. As such it would result in a fairly poor and constrained employment location. Summary
6.76 Overall, the assessment of identified employment sites in St Edmundsbury shows that the distribution of sites is skewed towards industrial rather than office provision.
6.77 Sites outside of the two town centres are highly reliant on their proximity to strategic roads such as the A14 around Bury St Edmunds and link roads such as the A143 and A1017. There are very few employment sites located outside of these strategic transport corridors. Those that are score relatively poorly against the range of quality and suitability criteria applied as part of this study as the road network is so constrained outside of these main arterial routes.
6.78 Vacancy rates within employment sites across the Borough appear to be relatively low, although in newer developments such as the ongoing development at Bumpstead Road these are currently higher than for some of the older stock and lower quality units across the Borough.
6.79 The proposed allocations can be split into three distinct groups. The first of these are focused on the regeneration of town centre sites, with the majority located in Haverhill. These primarily seek to regenerate existing space and old industrial areas. The overarching conclusion from these sites is that these are generally suitable for office space as opposed to the larger designations around Bury St Edmunds which can be classified as a second group of larger strategic designations. Whilst many of these sites are well suited to employment development, together they provide a significant quantum of employment land.
6.80 The final group of proposed sites are rural employment areas which are generally considered to be weak employment areas and score relatively poorly against conventional site assessment criteria. It is difficult to judge whether there is local market demand for these sites where there are no other employment sites nearby to provide a basis for gauging market demand and occupancy.
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7.0 Future Requirements for Employment Space
7.1 This section considers future economic growth needs in St Edmundsbury by drawing on several methodologies that are guided by the PPG. These scenarios are used to inform the assessment of the Borough’s future employment land needs for office and industrial (i.e. manufacturing and distribution) uses over the study period to 2031. Methodology
7.2 The NPPF requires local authorities to “set out a clear economic vision and strategy for their area which positively and proactively encourages sustainable economic growth” (para 21). Considering this in evidence base terms, this should be underpinned by a clear understanding of business needs within the economic markets operating in and across their area” (para 160).
7.3 Within this context, a number of potential future economic scenarios have been developed in this study to provide a framework for considering future economic growth needs and B class employment space requirements in St Edmundsbury to 2031. In line with PPG, these future scenarios draw upon: 1 Projections of employment growth in the main B class sectors (labour demand) derived from economic forecasts produced by the latest East of England Forecasting Model (EEFM 2016); 2 Estimating future growth of local labour supply drawing upon population projections developed by the 2016 EEFM and being used as part of the emerging St Edmundsbury Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA); and 3 Consideration of past trends in completions of employment space based on monitoring data collected by St Edmundsbury Borough Council, and how these trends might change in the future.
7.4 All these approaches have limitations and consideration needs to be given as to how appropriate each is to the circumstances in St Edmundsbury. Further, to be robust, the economic growth potential and likely demand for employment space in St Edmundsbury needs to be assessed under a variety of future scenarios, to reflect both lower and higher growth conditions that could arise in the future.
7.5 It should also be noted that the ultimate judgement as to the level of need that St Edmundsbury should plan for is not purely quantitative, and that there will be a number of qualitative factors to consider (discussed in other sections of the report). These factors will influence the employment space requirements that will need to be planned for, and should be considered alongside the following modelled scenarios. Forecasts of Job Growth
7.6 Forecasts of employment growth in St Edmundsbury to 2031 were obtained from the latest (2016) release of the East of England Forecasting Model (EEFM), which takes into account recent regional and national macroeconomic assumptions.
7.7 It is important to note that there are inherent limitations to the use of economic forecasts of this type, particularly within the context of recent economic and political changes. National macroeconomic assumptions are taken as the starting point and then modelled down to the regional and local levels by reference to the existing economic profile and
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sectoral composition of an area. Local level data is less comprehensive and reliable than at national and regional levels which can affect how the modelling is calibrated. Similarly, top-down forecasts do not take account of specific local factors that might influence employment growth. However forecasts are seen as a valuable input to indicate the broad scale and direction of future economic growth within different sectors, which helps assess the future land requirements of a local area.
7.8 Population projections are just one of several inputs used to produce economic forecasts both in terms of future changes in working-age population (i.e. which directly impacts on the demand for jobs) and total population (i.e which create demand for consumption activities). It is important to note that population projections are frequently revised, as are assumptions around future working-age populations, economic activity rates and national changes to the pension age.
Scenario 1: Baseline Job Growth
7.9 The forecasts of job growth by sector reflect recent trends and are based upon projections at the regional level and how sectors within St Edmundsbury have fared relative to historic growth in the region. EEFM forecasts are based on observed past trends. For example, where particular sectors have performed well compared with the regional average (i.e. East of England) the forecasts generally assume that these sectors will continue to drive growth within the Borough in the future. These projections also reflect the current post-recession economic climate but do not reflect the recent UK referendum vote to leave the European Union (EU). Further details are provided in Appendix 8.
7.10 These projections indicate overall growth of 11,680 workforce jobs for St Edmundsbury over the 20 year period (Table 7.2) equivalent to around 584 jobs per year on average. Table 7.1 shows the fastest growing sectors under this scenario, alongside those that are expected to see a decline in employment. A full breakdown of baseline job growth by sector (including non B class sectors) is provided in Appendix 10.
Table 7.1 Fastest Growing and Declining Employment Sectors in St Edmundsbury 2011-2031
Employment % Change EEFM Sector Use Class Change (2011-2031) (2011-2031) Business Services +5,510 +148.9% Health & Care +3,155 +36.2% Accommodation & Food +2,670 +87.4% Services Professional Services +1,160 +33.5% Real Estate +1,110 +92.9% Other Services -350 -21.0% Utilities -370 -45.0% Land Transport -415 -14.5% Manufacturing -2,685 -32.8%
Source: EEFM 2016 / Lichfields analysis Key: GREEN = B class sector ORANGE = Part B class sector RED = Non B class sector
7.11 Business services and health and care are expected to be key drivers of employment growth within the Borough over the next 20 years while sectors forecast to incur the largest employment losses during this period include manufacturing, land transport and utilities.
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7.12 The total employment change in St Edmundsbury implied by these forecasts is shown in Table 7.2 and Figure 7.1 alongside forecast job growth in the B class sectors. This includes an allowance for jobs in other non B class sectors that generally use office or industrial space (Appendix 9).
Table 7.2 Forecast Employment Change in St Edmundsbury, 2011-2031
Number of Jobs Change 2011 2031 (2011-2031) Offices (B1a/B1b)* 10,850 18,835 +7,985 Manufacturing (B1c/B2)** 10,430 7,735 -2,695 Distribution (B8)*** 6,125 5,965 -160 Total B Class Jobs 27,410 32,540 +5,130 Total Jobs in All Sectors 62,130 73,810 +11,680
Source: EEFM 2016 / Lichfields analysis Note * Includes publishing and a proportion of government offices. ** Includes vehicle repairs and some construction activities *** Includes parts of transport and communication sectors that use industrial land.
Figure 7.1 Total and B Class Employment Growth in St Edmundsbury to 2031
80,000 2011 Study Start Year
70,000
60,000 Total Workplace Jobs B Class Jobs 50,000 Office Jobs Industrial Jobs
40,000
Workplace Jobs Workplace 30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Source: EEFM 2016 / Lichfields analysis
7.13 These figures indicate a reasonable level of net job growth in B class sectors equivalent to 5,130 B class jobs in St Edmundsbury to 2031. All of this job growth is expected to be in office-based sectors, while both manufacturing and distribution based sectors are anticipated to see job losses over the 20 year period. This decline is expected to be most significant within manufacturing.
7.14 This is within the context of total job growth of 11,680 for the Borough over the plan period, which outside the B class sectors will mainly be in the healthcare and hospitality sectors (Table 7.1). These key growth sectors will also require additional floorspace to accommodate an increase in employment over the period to 2031 (including some
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conventional office space) although as noted previously, the spatial implications of this non-B class growth are considered using different methodologies and other forms of technical evidence.
7.15 This projected net increase of 5,130 B class jobs up to 2031, which underpins this estimate of future employment space needs, is equivalent to an average of 257 additional B class jobs each year. This figure implies a scale of job growth that is significantly higher than that achieved in the Borough between 2001 and 2011 (according to the latest EEFM data), which was equivalent to 75 B class jobs per annum on average (Figure 7.2).
7.16 In total workforce jobs terms, the 2016 EEFM baseline forecasts a scale of employment growth to 2031 (584 per annum on average) which is also higher than the level of job growth recorded in St Edmundsbury in recent years (between 2001 and 2011, Figure 7.2), although the scale of difference is less stark than with B class job growth.
7.17 On the basis of past performance, the baseline job growth scenario could be regarded as a more optimistic estimate of employment growth.
Figure 7.2 Annual Job Growth Implied by the EEFM Baseline
700 2001-2011 600 584 2011-2031 500
400 452
300
200 257 Annual Change in Jobs in Change Annual 100 75 0 Total Workforce Jobs B Class Jobs
Source: EEFM 2016 / Lichfields analysis
EEFM Data Outliers
7.18 It should be noted that a data ‘outlier’ has been identified within the business services sector within the 2016 EEFM model for St Edmundsbury and this has been confirmed by Cambridgeshire County Council to relate to a company operating within the ‘services to buildings and landscape activities’ sub-sector. The company is a fast-growing multi- national commercial services firm, which appears to be represented by group employees rather than site employees by BRES, whereby over-inflating the scale of employees that are actually based within the Borough and employed by this firm.
7.19 The EEFM model recognises this is a known error and the scale of employment within the business services sector has been corrected in the first year of the forecast (i.e. 2015). In order to provide a more accurate trend based view of employment within business services and overall employment in St Edmundsbury, Cambridgeshire County Council have provided a revised estimated historical employment time series for the Borough, and this has been incorporated into the analysis presented above. The overall scale of job
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growth (and job growth within the business services sector specifically) presented here therefore deviates from the published 2016 EEFM data for St Edmundsbury.
Floorspace Requirements
7.20 The B class part of these employment growth forecasts have been converted to net future employment space requirements by applying the latest published density figures for employment space, which take account of recent trends in occupancy for the different B class uses. To estimate space requirements, the following average ratios have been applied to job forecasts:
Offices: 1 job per 12.5sq.m for general office space;
Industrial: 1 job per 43sq.m as an average across B1c and B2 uses; and
Warehousing: 1 job per 65sq.m for general, smaller scale warehousing (assumed to account for 90% of warehousing stock in St Edmundsbury) and 1 job per 74sq.m for large scale, lower density units (i.e. assumed to account for 10% of total stock).
7.21 These assumptions are based on latest Homes & Communities Agency (HCA) guidance on job density ratios produced in 20158. The guidance takes account of recent trends in terms of changing utilisation of employment space, with the key change being the more efficient use of office floorspace due to the higher frequency of flexible working and hot-desking. This has resulted in a reduction in the amount of floorspace per office worker assumed compared to earlier guidance.
7.22 An allowance of 10% is added to all floorspace requirements to reflect normal levels of market vacancy in employment space. Where a reduction in jobs is forecast (e.g. manufacturing), the associated negative floorspace was halved. This reflects that while there may be ongoing manufacturing job losses (e.g. as firms use more efficient production approaches), it does not automatically follow that all of the existing employment space will be lost.
Table 7.3 Net Employment Space Requirements in St Edmundsbury, 2011 – 2031 (Baseline Job Growth)
Floorspace (sq.m) Offices (B1a/B1b) 109,775 Manufacturing (B1c/B2) -57,955 Distribution (B8) -5,190 Total B Class 46,630
Source: Lichfields analysis
7.23 As shown in Table 7.3, the resulting net B class floorspace requirement is positive, driven by a modest increase in office floorspace but with an implied decline in industrial floorspace also factored in. B. Past Development Rates
7.24 Because they reflect market demand and actual development patterns on the ground, in some cases long term completion rates of employment floorspace can provide a reasonable basis for informing future land needs. Completions over such a period as ten years or more should even out demand fluctuations over a business cycle, and normally provide a reasonable basis for estimating future needs provided land supply has not been unduly constrained. Whereas job forecasts show growth in net terms, past trend-based
8 Homes and Communities Agency, Employment Density Guide 3rd Edition, November 2015
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assessments take into account development that offsets the redevelopment of employment sites, and from the recycling of sites.
Scenario 2: Past Development Rates
7.25 Monitoring data on past completions by B class uses between 2003 and 2015 was provided by St Edmundsbury Borough Council. During this period, average annual net completions for B class uses in St Edmundsbury amounted to around 8,600sq.m of employment floorspace (Table 7.4).
7.26 Gross completions were slightly higher at an average of 10,900sq.m each year, although this masks losses of employment space that have occurred over this period.
Table 7.4 Annual Completion Rates of Employment Space in St Edmundsbury, 2003 - 2015
Net Annual Completions Gross Annual Completions (sq.m) (sq.m) Offices (B1a/B1b) 2,000 2,800 Industrial (B1c/B2/B8 6,600 8,100 Total 8,600 10,900
Source: St Edmundsbury Borough Council / Lichfields analysis
7.27 One view of future growth in St Edmundsbury could therefore simply assume that the past development rates carry on in the future at the long term average. If it were assumed that past net completion rates were to continue over the next 20 year period, this would equate to an increase of 40,000sq.m of office space and 132,000sq.m of manufacturing and distribution space by 2031. Such employment requirements are significantly higher than that estimated using job based forecasts (Table 7.3).
Table 7.5 Net Employment Space Requirements Based on Past Completion Trends, 2011 - 2031
Net Floorspace Assumed Net Floorspace Requirements Change (p.a.) (sq.m) (2011 - 2031) (sq.m) Offices (B1a/B1b) 2,000 40,000 Industrial (B1c/B2/B8 6,600 132,000 Total 8,600 172,000
Source: St Edmundsbury Borough Council / Lichfields analysis
7.28 Using standard ratios of jobs to floorspace for the different B class uses (i.e. as outlined above), it is possible to estimate that just over 5,800 B class jobs could be created in the Borough up to 2031 under this scenario. This is equivalent to a gain of around 290 B class jobs each year over the course of the plan period. The majority of these jobs would fall within office based sectors, due to the relatively high employment densities associated with the use of office space when compared with industrial uses. C. Future Labour Supply
7.29 It is also important to take into account how many jobs, and hence how much employment space, would be necessary to broadly match forecast growth of the resident workforce in the Borough. In contrast to the labour demand approach, this approach focuses on the future supply of labour rather than the demand for labour. It then estimates the amount of new jobs needed to match the future supply of working-age population, and how much employment space would be needed to accommodate these B class jobs.
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Scenario 3: Labour Supply
7.30 A labour supply based scenario has been considered for St Edmundsbury based on population projections and other demographic assumptions that have been used to inform the emerging St Edmundsbury Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA). These assumptions are aligned with the demographic outputs associated with the 2016 EEFM.
7.31 Information on the employed resident population growth has been supplied by Cambridgeshire County Council. This implies an increase in the number of employed residents in St Edmundsbury of 6,055 between 2011 and 2031. This figure includes all age groups of the population, regardless of whether they are of ‘working age’ or not.
7.32 An adjustment for commuting patterns has been made by Lichfields based on the latest 2011 Census travel-to-work data. These commuting trends for St Edmundsbury are assumed to remain the same for the entirety of the period to 2031, meaning that the Borough is assumed to continue to operate as a net importer of labour.
7.33 Table 7.6 summarises the resident and workplace labour supply resulting from this scenario. Based on the population projections used in the emerging St Edmundsbury SHMA, the number of workplace jobs required to support the increase in employed persons in the Borough assumes that one additional job would be required for each additional worker, whilst the proportion employed in B class sectors takes into account the existing and forecast share of B class jobs to total jobs in the Borough from the EEFM baseline employment forecast data (presented in Scenario 1).
Table 7.6 Forecast Labour Supply and Job Requirements for St Edmundsbury, 2011 - 2031
Average Per Annum Total Change (2011 - 2031) (2011 - 2031) Resident Labour Supply +303 +6,055 Workplace Labour Supply +313 +6,265 Office Jobs (B1a/B1b) +315 +6,305 Manufacturing Jobs (B1c/B2) -152 -3,030 Distribution Jobs (B8) -27 -530 All B Class Jobs +137 +2,745
Source: Cambridgeshire County Council / Lichfields analysis
7.34 This analysis results in a requirement for 2,745 B class jobs in St Edmundsbury over the 20 year study period to 2031, which is equivalent to about 137 additional B class jobs per annum on average. All of these jobs relate to office uses, with a negative requirement for distribution and manufacturing jobs (Table 7.6).
7.35 These job numbers can then be translated into estimated requirements for B class employment space by applying the same standard employment densities used in the job growth based approach, and adding a 10% vacancy allowance. Where a reduction in jobs is forecast (i.e. in manufacturing and distribution based sectors), the associated negative floorspace is halved. Overall future employment floorspace requirements based on meeting the job needs of local resident workers would require some 4,090sq.m of B class employment floorspace in the Borough by 2031 (Table 7.7).
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Table 7.7 Net Employment Floorspace Required from Labour Supply Growth, 2011 - 2031
Floorspace (sq.m) Offices (B1a/B1b) 86,695 Manufacturing (B1c/B2) -65,150 Distribution (B8) -17,455 Total 4,090
Source: Lichfields analysis
7.36 This labour supply based estimate produces a positive space requirement that falls significantly behind the baseline EEFM scenario and the past completions based scenario. Summary of Net Employment Space Requirements
7.37 Drawing together the results from each of the future growth scenarios for St Edmundsbury, the net B class employment floorspace requirements for the Borough over the period 2011 to 2031 reflect a range of potential scenarios (Table 7.8).
Table 7.8 Net Floorspace Requirements by Scenario to 2031 (sq.m)
1. Baseline Job 2. Past Growth (2016 Development 3. Labour Supply EEFM) Rates Offices (B1a/B1b) 109,775 40,000 86,695 Industrial -63,145 132,000 -82,605 (B1c/B2/B8) All B Uses 46,630 172,000 4,090
Source: Lichfields analysis
7.38 The net B class employment floorspace requirements for St Edmundsbury represent the minimum recommended amount of floorspace that should be planned for in the Borough over the period to 2031. The Council will need to take a view on the extent to which additional space should be planned for over and above the net requirements, in order to allow for such factors as delays in development sites coming forward, an allowance for replacement of ongoing losses of employment space during the Local Plan period, and other relevant factors in the local market. Net Land Requirements
7.39 The final step, for all three scenarios, is to translate floorspace into land requirements for both office (B1a/B1b) and industrial (B1c/B2/B8) uses. This has been calculated by applying appropriate plot ratio assumptions to the net floorspace estimates presented above using the following assumptions and local adjustment factors to reflect the pattern of development in St Edmundsbury:
Industrial (B1c/B2/B8) – a plot ratio of 0.4 is applied so that a 1 ha site would be needed to accommodate a footprint of 4,000sq.m of employment floorspace; and
Offices (B1a/B1b) – it was assumed that 60% of new floorspace would be in lower density, business park developments with a plot ratio of 0.4, with 40% in higher density town centre locations at a plot ratio of 2.0. This split is considered to broadly reflect the current position in the Borough.
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7.40 The resulting net land requirements for the three scenarios are set out in Table 7.9.
Table 7.9 Net Land Requirements by Scenario to 2031 (ha)
1. Baseline Job 2. Past Growth (2016 Development 3. Labour Supply EEFM) Rates Offices (B1a/B1b) 18.7 6.8 14.7 Industrial -15.8 33.0 -20.7 (B1c/B2/B8) All B Uses 2.9 39.8 -6.0
Source: Lichfields analysis
Planning Requirement
7.41 Whilst the net employment space requirements presented above represent the minimum recommended quantum of employment floorspace to plan for within St Edmundsbury over the study period, the Council will need to take a view on the extent to which additional space should be planned for over and above the net requirements to allow for factors such as delays in development coming forward, for replacing employment space that is lost in future and to take account of other market factors.
7.42 The former South East England Partnership Board (SEEPB) guidance on employment land assessments recommended an allowance that is equivalent to the average time for a site to gain planning permission and be developed, typically about two years. This is equivalent to 10% of the total 20 year study period for St Edmundsbury. Table 7.10 provides an illustration of indicative ‘gross’ land requirements by scenario for St Edmundsbury to 2031 after applying this 10% buffer or margin.
Table 7.10 Indicative Gross Land Requirements by Scenario to 2031 (ha)
1. Baseline Job 2. Past Growth (2016 Development 3. Labour Supply EEFM) Rates Offices (B1a/B1b) 20.6 7.5 16.2 Industrial -15.8 36.3 -20.7 (B1c/B2/B8) All B Uses 4.8 43.8 -4.5
Source: Lichfields Analysis Note: Additional allowance has not been applied where net land requirement is negative
Sensitivity Tests
7.43 Given the range of potential requirements implied by these different growth scenarios, it is useful to compare the employment growth implied by these scenarios with employment growth actually achieved in St Edmundsbury in recent years (Figure 7.3).
7.44 The lowest estimate is based on the labour supply scenario and emerging St Edmundsbury SHMA, driven by a gain in office based jobs and an overall loss of industrial jobs. The highest growth estimate is based on the scenario that assumes past development rates of B class space continue in future; by contrast, this is driven by
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industrial uses which accounted for the majority of recent floorspace completions in St Edmundsbury.
7.45 The 2016 EEFM baseline scenario implies a scale of job growth that falls between the past take-up and labour supply approaches (in B class terms at least), and represents a ‘business as usual’ trajectory of job growth for the Borough over the period to 2031 (Figure 7.3).
Figure 7.3 Annual Job Growth Implied by Scenarios
600 Total Workforce Jobs 584 2001-11 Annual Average (452) B Class Jobs 500
400
300 313 290 257 2001-11 200 Annual Average (75) 100 137
0 1. Baseline Job Growth 2. Past Development Rates 3. Labour Supply (St Eds (2016 EEFM) SHMA)
Source: Lichfields analysis
7.46 All three scenarios imply a higher scale of B class job growth over the study period to 2031 when compared with recent employment trends in St Edmundsbury. As Figure 7.3 shows, the baseline EEFM job growth scenario also implies a higher rate of overall workforce job growth in the Borough to 2031 than has been achieved over recent years, with the labour supply scenario falling significantly short of this historic annual average. Synthesis and Conclusions
7.47 In interpreting the outputs of this section, regard should be had to PPG guidance which states that Local Authorities should develop an idea of future economic needs based on a range of data and forecasts of quantitative and qualitative need. It is also important to recognise that there are inevitable uncertainties and limitations associated with modelling assumptions under the future growth scenarios considered. For example, there are some inherent limitations to the use of local level economic forecasts, particularly in the context of significant recent changes in the economy. Economic forecasts are regularly updated and the resulting employment outputs will change over the plan period.
7.48 Three different scenarios of future employment space requirements have been considered based on a range of lower and higher growth conditions that could arise in the future. For each scenario, the scale of annual B class job growth is expected to increase in St
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Edmundsbury over the 20 year period to 2031 when compared with past trends of much lower B class employment growth in the Borough.
7.49 The overall net floorspace requirements that have been estimated by the scenarios range from 4,090sq.m (under the labour supply scenario) to 172,000sq.m (under the past take- up scenario) over the 20 year period to 2031. This implies in broad terms a need for between -6.0ha and 39.8ha of employment land in net terms. In most cases, the majority of this spatial requirement relates to office (B1a/b) uses. Applying a 10% buffer or margin to these net figures – to provide an illustration of indicative gross land requirements – increases this range to between -4.5ha and 43.8ha.
7.50 The economic forecasts provided by the 2016 EEFM provide a ‘business as usual’ view of St Edmundsbury’s economic growth prospects and draw on the latest macro economic outlook and assumptions. The baseline EEFM scenario implies that the scale of both B class and overall job growth will pick up in future compared with past trends (covering the period as far back as the EEFM data goes). Partly as a result of its macro economic starting point, the EEFM baseline scenario assumes that employment within industrial sectors (namely manufacturing and distribution) will decline in St Edmundsbury over the period to 2031 which conflicts somewhat with the current market dynamics in the Borough whereby industrial sectors have historically, and continue to drive demand for B class space (as described in Chapter 4.0).
7.51 The labour supply based approach (scenario 3) generates the lowest overall level of employment growth over the period to 2031 and associated floorspace and land requirements. The demographic projections that form the basis of this scenario reflect a relatively high scale of total population growth over this period, but within this, a relatively small scale of working-age population growth; in fact, less than a quarter of the population growth over this period is expected to fall within working-age groups (i.e. 16- 64). When modelled for the purposes of this ELR study, these projections result in a negative requirement for B class space over the 20 year planning period to 2031. The labour supply approach would therefore appear to provide a less robust basis for assessing the employment space requirements within the context of planning for growth in the Borough.
7.52 The third scenario assumes that past take-up rates of B class space in St Edmundsbury continue unchanged in future; in doing so, it results in the highest overall B class floorspace and land requirement, driven largely by industrial uses reflecting recent trends noted above.
7.53 Within this context, and in light of the NPPF requirement to plan positively for growth, it is recommended that the Council consider planning to accommodate at least the baseline labour demand based requirement (scenario 1). At the same time, the Council should consider planning to accommodate the higher requirement arising from the past take-up scenario because this reflects the scale of market demand that has occurred within the Borough’s commercial property market over recent years, and provides a more accurate view of industrial related demand, building upon the Borough’s existing strengths in this sector, including its strategic location on the A14 corridor.
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8.0 Demand/Supply Balance
8.1 This section draws together forecasts of future employment land needs in Section 7.0 and estimates of land available on the Borough’s existing and allocated employment sites to identify any need for more provision of employment space, or surpluses of it, in both quantitative and qualitative terms. Quantitative Balance
8.2 The previous section identified a need for between 4,090sq.m and 172,000sq.m of employment space up to 2031 in net terms. The land requirements associated with this quantum of employment floorspace (after applying a 10% buffer or margin) are estimated at between -4.5ha and 43.8ha, reflecting a relatively wide variation in the level of growth that could be supported by St Edmundsbury’s economy over the plan period.
Pipeline Supply
8.3 The supply of employment space in the development pipeline comes from sites that have been allocated for employment uses (as General and Rural Employment Areas) through the Bury St Edmunds, Haverhill and Rural Area Vision 2031 site allocation documents, which were formally adopted by St Edmundsbury Borough Council in September 2014. Vision 2031 documents form part of the St Edmundsbury Local Plan.
8.4 The Council’s latest Annual Monitoring Report (AMR) was published in March 2016 and covers the monitoring period 2014/15. This provides information on land availability within General and Rural Employment Areas based on the Vision 2031 documents and updated to April 2015 to take account of completions in the intervening period. The AMR notes that recent completions have either related to change of use or redevelopment of existing allocations leaving the land availability unchanged from that set out in the Vision 2031 documents.
8.5 Based on this information, the space available to help meet future needs in St Edmundsbury is estimated to comprise just under 155ha of B class space in net terms as shown in Table 8.1.
8.6 The AMR also identifies a number of approved but unimplemented planning permissions for B class development that were extant at April 2015. If implemented in full, these planning permissions imply an overall loss of 218sq.m of B class space, equivalent to less than 0.1ha in land terms (based on a plot ratio of 0.4). These permissions have not been included within the pipeline supply position summarised in Table 8.1 due to their very small scale.
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Table 8.1 Emerging Supply of Employment Floorspace in St Edmundsbury (at April 2015 – latest available position)
Location Site/Area Land available for development (ha) Bury St Anglian Lane 0.4 Edmunds Blenheim Park 0.8 Suffolk Business Park Extension 68.3 Chapel Pond Hill 0.9 Eastern Way 0.2 Mildenhall Road 4.3 Northern Way 0.3 Sub Total 75.2 Haverhill Bumpstead Road 2.3 Falconer Road 3.0 Haverhill Industrial Estate 5.9 Homefield Road 0.2 Stour Valley Road 1.4 Haverhill Research Park 6.9 Sub Total 19.7 Rural Areas Barrow Business Park 1.0 Chedburgh 1.1 Clare, Chilton Street 0.5 Ixworth (land off Bardwell Road) 1.6 Risby Business Park 2.5 Shepherd’s Grove, Stanton/Hepworth 53.1 Sub Total 59.8 Borough Total 154.7
Source: St Edmundsbury Borough Council / Lichfields analysis (totals rounded)
8.7 The AMR notes that the Haverhill Research Park is available for B1 employment uses and the Bury St Edmunds Vision 2031 document notes that the 68.3 ha of land east of Suffolk Business Park is allocated for use classes B1 and B8. Aside from these two sites, the Council is not specific about individual B use classes on a site-by-site basis, so it is assumed that a flexible approach would be taken to new development.
8.8 The majority of this pipeline supply is located within Bury St Edmunds (49%) and the rural areas of the Borough (39%). Within these areas, two individual sites stand out as comprising the majority of this land, namely the Suffolk Business Park Extension (which accounts for 44% of overall supply across the Borough) and Shepherd’s Grove (which accounts for a further 34% of total supply).
8.9 Beyond these two sites, the remaining 33ha (or 22%) of land is scattered across 17 smaller sites, some of which fall below 1ha in size (Table 8.1). The largest of these sites is Haverhill Research Park at 6.9ha in total.
8.10 Beyond this identified supply, current levels of vacant employment space being marketed do not appear particularly excessive against the ‘normal’ market vacancy rate of 10% to enable churn and choice (in fact vacancy levels within the Borough’s B class stock are currently reported to be lower than 10%) and no surplus capacity in terms of existing vacant floorspace has been added to the supply position.
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8.11 It should also be noted that the Council has allocated a number of other sites for mixed use development within the Bury St Edmunds, Haverhill and Rural Vision 2031 site allocation documents, a number of which have been subject to a suitability appraisal as part of this ELR (see Chapter 6.0). These include large urban extension sites to Bury St Edmunds such as Bury St Edmunds North West and Bury St Edmunds North East. Emerging masterplans for these sites do not tend to quantify potential development capacity for B use classes, hence they have not been included within the available supply position set out in the Council’s latest AMR.
8.12 A broad comparison of estimated demand for B Class space against currently identified supply, as shown in Table 8.2, implies that St Edmundsbury would have sufficient employment space in quantitative terms up to 2031 to meet the needs arising from all three future growth scenarios. The potential surplus of space would vary from 110.9ha to 159.2ha depending upon the scenario.
Table 8.2 Demand/Supply Balance of B Cass Employment Space in St Edmundsbury (to 2031)
1. Baseline Job 2. Past Growth (2016 Development 3. Labour Supply EEFM) Rates Requirement for B Class 4.8 43.8 -4.5 Space (ha) Available Employment 154.7 Space (ha) Surplus (ha) +149.9 +110.9 +159.2
Source: Lichfields analysis
8.13 As noted above, this demand/supply position is highly sensitive to the inclusion of two large sites at Suffolk Business Park Extension and Shepherd’s Grove. If these two sites were removed from the supply, the surplus position would reduce considerably, with a shortfall arising under the past take-up based scenario. Sub-District Distribution
8.14 Whilst a key aim of this ELR is to estimate employment land requirements for the Borough overall, it is also important to ensure the appropriate distribution of allocated sites across St Edmundsbury to meet future requirements, and to accord with market demand. As such, this section provides an overview of market views on demand for different uses, locations of stronger/weaker demand across the Borough and seeks to identify where any gaps or mismatches in future provision may occur.
8.15 A summary of the anticipated demand/supply situation over the plan period for the Borough’s main settlements is presented in Table 8.3 with a summary by sub area provided below. This analysis has been undertaken within the context of an identified employment land requirement of between-4.5ha and43.8ha and a quantitative over supply of employment land over the 20 year time period 2011-2031 in overall B class terms. As noted previously, it is recommended that the Council consider planning to accommodate at least the employment land requirement associated with the baseline EEFM job growth scenario, which is equivalent to 4.8ha over the plan period.
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Table 8.3 Comparison of Employment Land Supply and Demand to 2031 by Borough Sub Area
Available Reported Level of Market Demand / Employment Demand Sub Area Supply Balance Land Supply to 2031 (ha) Office Industrial Bury St Edmunds 75.2 Moderate High
Haverhill 19.7 Low Moderate
Shepherd’s Grove 53.1 Low Moderate
Elsewhere in the Low/ 6.7 Low Borough Moderate Low/ Borough Total 154.7 Moderate Moderate
KEY = adequate supply = over-supply
8.16 Bury St Edmunds represents the Borough’s premier employment location and the town is popular amongst both office and industrial occupiers. It is a long established employment location, home to a number of relatively sizeable business parks and benefits from its location straddling the A14 strategic corridor.
8.17 The vast majority of employment land supply in Bury St Edmunds relates to the 68ha extension to the east of Suffolk Business Park which is allocated for use classes B1 and B8, with Policy BV13 of Bury St Edmunds Vision 2031 seeking light industrial, research and office development and units for new and small firms involved in high technology and related activities. The development is dependent on the building of a relief road from the A14 which is almost complete. The site is considered to have good prospects for accommodating short term latent demand in the Borough’s industrial market as well as longer term potential to attract investment from further afield along the A14 corridor and provide the Borough with a genuinely strategic employment location.
8.18 Policy BV13 notes that this is a long-term allocation, development of which is likely to extend beyond the plan period to 2031, so in reality not all of this 68ha supply is likely to be available to meet the 20 year business needs identified within the future growth scenarios developed as part of this ELR study. Furthermore, the policy also states that the Suffolk Business Park allocation provides the opportunity and flexibility for older, inappropriately located and/or poor quality employment sites within the town to be regenerated and/or re-used for other purposes (that is, businesses that may not fit neatly into B use classes). In reality therefore, not all of the 68ha is expected to provide the Borough with ‘net additional’ supply, albeit in quantitative terms this site alone would be sufficient to accommodate the majority if not all of the identified requirements for B class employment space by 2031.
8.19 Haverhill is St Edmundsbury’s second largest settlement and is predominately an industrial location, traditionally perceived by the market as a lower value business location than Bury St Edmunds although it has been successful in attracting and growing firms over recent years. The town accommodates just under 20ha of employment land supply, distributed across a number of sites including Haverhill Research Park (6.9ha) and Haverhill Industrial Estate (5.9ha).
8.20 In quantitative terms, this supply would appear to be more than sufficient in order to meet local business needs, and some of these sites would appear to be more suited than
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others to meeting future needs. For instance, the 5.9ha supply at the industrial estate would appear to provide logical expansion space for existing occupiers on the estate that need to grow or relocate over the coming years. The proposed ‘Haverhill Research Park’ has planning consent for 450,000sq.ft of B1 R&D/Office accommodation over 4 plots, although to date market interest has been insufficient to bring forward any development, despite having been marketed over the last four years. The Research Park is primarily targeted at Greater Cambridge occupiers (as opposed to local demand/occupiers per se) – the logic for which centres upon Haverhill’s proximity to the Greater Cambridge sphere of economic influence – yet recent experience would seem to suggest that Haverhill’s proximity to Cambridge is insufficient to attract the level of investment required to support the development viability that is needed to kick-start development on site.
8.21 For example, the latest economic evidence prepared on behalf of Cambridge City Council and South Cambridgeshire District Council9 suggests that property market development, investment and occupier interest has contracted into the most popular locations, notably Cambridge city centre and the northern fringe (around Cambridge Science Park, Cambridge Business Park and St John’s Innovation Centre). By comparison, the rest of the northern and western fringe of Cambridge is less popular. The study concluded that there is currently sufficient overall provision of employment land across Cambridge City and South Cambridgeshire. Whilst forecasts suggest there is likely to be a shortage of B1a space, demand for office space is particularly focused on two areas of pressure: the city centre, and the northern fringe. The market signals are very clear that increasing provision elsewhere will not on its own solve the problem – more has to be done to increase supply in those locations where firms most want to be. This market intelligence suggests that the prospects for new development at Haverhill Research Park appear to be limited, at least over the short term, whilst occupiers seeking a Cambridge location can be satisfied within the city or its immediate fringes.
8.22 Shepherd’s Grove is a former WWII airfield to the east of the settlement of Stanton in the northeast of the Borough and represents the Borough’s largest rural employment site. Demand for employment space in this type of rural location is reported to be limited but steady, and the two clusters of existing industrial units on the site appear to be popular with local occupiers.
8.23 The area is allocated under Policy RV4 of the Rural Vision 2031 site allocations plan for just over 53ha of employment land. When compared with the demand estimates prepared as part of this study, the supply associated with this site alone would be more than sufficient in quantitative terms, albeit would fail to meet the needs associated with the majority of St Edmundsbury’s businesses who tend to favour the larger and better connected settlements of Bury ST Edmunds and Haverhill. A masterplan is required prior to the approval of any planning application on the site. Policy RV4 notes that:
“new infrastructure is required to serve the employment site with the provision of a new roundabout on the A143 and access roads into the site. The costs associated with the provision of such infrastructure are high and depending on the market conditions could impact on the deliverability of the site. If it can be demonstrated that employment development on this land and the required infrastructure cannot be viably achieved, some higher value development, which could include residential development, will be considered. The mechanism for determining this will be through the preparation and adoption of a site masterplan.” (Policy RV4 Rural Employment Areas)
9 Employment Land Review Update and Review of Selective Management of Employment Policies, Report to South Cambridgeshire District Council and Cambridge City Council, SQW July 2012
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8.24 This suggests that not all of the 53ha of land is likely to be available to accommodate new development over the plan period and that the Council would in principle be willing to accept non B class development on part of the site. It is understood that the allocation has remained undeveloped for a number of years, and that proposals are currently being drawn up for a residential-led mixed use development on part of the site, in order to facilitate lower value industrial development.
8.25 Elsewhere in the Borough, the smaller settlements of Barrow, Chedburgh, Clare, Ixworth and Risby make up the remaining market for B class space, with employment sites dispersed across the Borough. Within these locations, occupier demand is relatively limited and generally comes from local businesses and can be very variable by site/location. Across these locations, there is estimated to be around 6.7ha of employment land supply including small scale extensions to existing, well performing business parks and industrial estates. This appears to be proportionate to the scale of demand that is likely to arise across the Borough’s smaller settlements and rural business locations. Summary
8.26 Based on available employment land identified by St Edmundsbury Borough Council and the site appraisal process undertaken by this study, the Borough would appear to have sufficient employment space in quantitative terms to meet future needs up to 2031 arising under all three scenarios of future growth considered. Depending upon the scenario, the potential surplus of space would vary from 110.9ha to 159.2ha.
8.27 The pattern of demand and availability of employment land to meet future needs varies across the Borough’s sub areas and key settlements, with Bury St Edmunds and to a lesser extent Haverhill attracting the highest levels of occupier demand; both of which also accommodate significant amounts of pipeline available employment land which in quantitative terms is more than sufficient to meet business needs over the period to 2031.
8.28 Elsewhere, the Borough’s smaller settlements and rural areas play an important role in accommodating local business as well as providing affordable workspace and retaining home based businesses within the local community. While the analysis identifies some available employment land, the provision of a positive policy framework that encourages rural enterprise and diversification schemes arguably represents the most appropriate way of ensuring that rural needs can be met over the plan period.
8.29 It is the intention of St Edmundsbury and Forest Heath councils to commence work on a joint West Suffolk Local Plan to cover both administrative areas. At present it is anticipated that work on the joint Local Plan will commence towards the end of 2017 or early 2018. During this time, a comprehensive review will be undertaken of all employment sites and allocations across the two administrative areas and there would appear to be significant scope to rationalise and consolidate the Borough’s future supply of employment space based on the latest analysis undertaken as part of this ELR study. Further information and recommendations are included in the following Chapter.
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9.0 Conclusions and Policy Implications
9.1 This section draws together overall conclusions and considers potential policy approaches in relation to employment space for the new joint West Suffolk Plan as well as other measures which may be required to support St Edmundsbury’s economic growth objectives. Meeting Future Needs
9.2 The future growth scenarios considered in this study indicate the broad scale and type of growth associated with different approaches to modelling employment space requirements for St Edmundsbury over the period 2011 to 2031.To varying degrees, these scenarios reflect both the indigenous growth needs in St Edmundsbury as well as a degree of footloose demand that operates within a wider sub-regional market. ln the context of the NPPF and PPG, the policy approach adopted by the Council should aim to positively plan to support the employment needs of St Edmundsbury so that the local economy is not unduly constrained over the plan period, but also recognises the issues around land supply and competing pressures on available development sites.
9.3 In order to ensure a flexible and responsive policy framework for the Borough, it will be necessary to not just concentrate on meeting the forecast quantitative requirements for office and industrial space in St Edmundsbury, which will fluctuate over time, but to reflect on the opportunities and risks that flow from particular policy approaches. This could include how the delivery of B class employment land can be prioritised in particular areas and for particular uses, or how scope can be created to deliver inward investment opportunities for St Edmundsbury, in particular by drawing and capitalising upon the growth opportunities provided by the forthcoming Suffolk Business Park extension which adjoins Bury St Edmunds and provides the Borough with a strategic growth opportunity. The Council should also consider the scope to which existing legacy estates and sites in the Borough are no longer productive for employment use and could be better placed to support non B class employment uses in the future.
9.4 In this context, it is important that planning for B class employment growth in the Borough is balanced against pressures from other land uses. B class employment space also competes with a wide range of other non B class uses (which fall outside of the remit of this study), some of which may also generate benefits to the St Edmundsbury economy or have identified needs that the NPPF indicates should also be duly supported.
9.5 To meet the future requirements for office and industrial space in St Edmundsbury over the period to 2031, it will be necessary for the Council to make choices in the new joint West Suffolk Plan about which employment sites to protect or allocate for employment developments or which to bring forward as mixed-use schemes either in part or whole. These judgements must ultimately take account of the following: 1 the local benefits of B class employment sectors and the need to sustain a diversified and resilient economy that is able to capitalise on economic growth opportunities as they arise; 2 the economic and market outcomes that would arise if particular sectors become displaced from the economy, or are otherwise constrained from expanding in the Borough; 3 the need to promote growth in high value employment roles in St Edmundsbury that meet the aspirations of resident workers and supports the relatively productive nature of the economy; and
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4 the requirement to set targets for delivery of new B class employment space particularly on strategic sites to provide clarity and certainty for developers, which will require a practical assessment of what the market can deliver at any point in time. Masterplans have been produced for a number of urban extension sites to Bury St Edmunds, although few currently include specific B use targets.
9.6 The policy choices ultimately adopted by the Council should, as far as possible, seek to plan for a choice of employment sites and locations to support the needs of particular businesses and sectors. In this context, some further commentary around the potential options for accommodating the needs of the office and industrial market in St Edmundsbury over the period to 2031 is set out below. Future Growth Scenarios
9.7 In line with PPG guidance on undertaking economic development needs assessments, three different scenarios of future economic growth in St Edmundsbury have been developed as part of this study. These produce a series of B class floorspace requirements that range in net terms from 4,090sq.m (under the labour supply scenario) to 172,000sq.m (under the past take-up scenario) over the 20 year period to 2031. In broad terms this equates to a need for between -4.5ha and 43.8ha of employment land, which includes a 10% buffer or margin to allow for flexibility and choice in the local market. For each scenario, the scale of annual B class job growth is expected to increase over the 20 year period to 2031 when compared with past trends of much lower B class employment growth in the Borough.
9.8 Within the context of the NPPF requirement to plan positively for growth, it is recommended that the Council consider planning to accommodate at least the baseline labour demand based requirement (scenario 1) derived from 2016 EEFM job growth forecasts which represent a ‘business as usual’ trajectory of future growth in St Edmundsbury. Under this baseline scenario, the relative balance between future office and industrial employment growth (and associated floorspace requirements) is driven to a large extent by macro-economic trends, drivers and forecasts which are predicated on a structural shift away from industrial sectors of the economy towards more services and consumption related activity which tend to be more significant users of office space.
9.9 For this reason, it is also recommended that the Council considers planning to accommodate the higher requirement arising from the past take-up scenario because this reflects the scale of market demand that has occurred within the Borough’s commercial property market over recent years, and provides a more accurate view of industrial related demand, building upon the Borough’s existing strengths in this sector, including its strategic location on the A14 corridor.
9.10 Industrial sectors have an important role to play in supporting St Edmundsbury’s economy, and this is expected to continue in future. It is therefore important that quantitative growth forecasts implied by two of the three scenarios presented within this study (i.e. scenarios 1 and 3, both of which imply a decline in industrial jobs going forward) are considered alongside the more qualitative feedback and local market signals on business needs that have been identified through consultation with key property market agents active across the Borough and wider sub-region. Demand from occupiers for industrial space is likely to reflect a macroeconomic shift in demand away from manufacturing and heavy industrial uses to distribution, logistics and storage, and St Edmundsbury is well placed to capture these opportunities due to its proximity to key strategic transport corridors and routes (most notably the A14) as well as the Borough’s pipeline of strategic sites (such as the Suffolk Business Park extension) which offer the
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scale and flexibility required by distribution activities. A key planning issue going forward will also be how to recycle and make better use of existing industrial sites to ensure they remain attractive to and viable for local industrial occupiers. Accommodating Growth
9.11 In overall quantitative terms, analysis undertaken as part of this study indicates that there is sufficient supply in the pipeline to accommodate B class floorspace and land requirements arising under all growth scenarios considered. Depending upon the scenario, the potential surplus of space could exceed 100ha.
9.12 The NPPF states that:
“Planning policies should avoid the long term protection of sites allocated for employment use where there is no reasonable prospect of a site being used for that purpose. Where there is no reasonable prospect of a site being used for the allocated employment use, applications for alternative uses of land or buildings should be treated on their merits having regard to market signals and the relative need for different land uses to support sustainable local communities.” (para 22)
9.13 Against this backdrop, and within the context of an identified surplus of employment land needed to accommodate the Borough’s growth needs over the plan period, it would appear difficult to justify retaining all of St Edmundsbury’s pipeline supply of allocations, particularly where there would appear to be limited prospects of these sites accommodating productive employment uses, at least over the short to medium term.
9.14 This demand/supply position is highly sensitive to the inclusion of two large site allocations at Suffolk Business Park Extension (68.3ha) and Shepherd’s Grove (53.1ha) which together account for more than three quarters of the total identified pipeline supply of employment land in the Borough. If these two sites were removed from the supply, the surplus position would reduce considerably, with a shortfall arising under one of the scenarios (past take-up). Beyond these two sites, the remaining supply of around 33ha is scattered across a much larger portfolio of smaller sites, many of which represent extension opportunities for existing industrial estates and business parks.
9.15 The pattern of demand and availability of employment land to meet future needs varies across the Borough’s sub areas and key settlements. Bury St Edmunds and to a lesser extent Haverhill attract the highest levels of occupier demand within St Edmundsbury, and both of these towns also accommodate significant amounts of pipeline available employment land which in quantitative terms is more than sufficient to meet business needs over the period to 2031.
9.16 Work is shortly due to commence on a new joint West Suffolk Local Plan to cover the two administrative areas of St Edmundsbury and Forest Heath. Development of a new joint Local Plan provides an opportunity for a comprehensive review to be undertaken of all existing employment sites and allocations across the Borough in order to inform new Local Plan employment policies and site allocations.
9.17 Analysis undertaken as part of this ELR study identifies significant scope to rationalise and consolidate the Borough’s pipeline of employment land and allocations by seeking to concentrate this space in the Borough’s key locations and areas of strongest market demand. Against the backdrop of current viability challenges, new development of employment space in the Borough will need to build upon and take advantage of the Borough’s strategic transport infrastructure and accessibility, most notably the A14 corridor that runs through St Edmundsbury.
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9.18 The Borough’s best performing employment sites (such as the Suffolk Business Park, Risby Business Park and Bumpstead Road) should be retained and protected in order to ensure that the Borough can effectively accommodate additional growth in a sustainable way. Beyond these, a selective approach could be taken to condensing the Borough’s portfolio of other industrial and office sites, drawing upon market feedback on which individual sites and locations perform an important role and those which have proved less attractive to the market despite prolonged periods of marketing and/or reflecting other feedback about their constraints.
Functional Economic Market Area
9.19 From a functional economic market area perspective, St Edmundsbury is considered to be relatively self-contained, with market areas and flows generally not extending too far beyond the authority boundary. The key exception to this is the city of Cambridge which exerts a relatively significant influence over the Borough from an economic perspective. Economic flows and relationships between St Edmundsbury and eastern parts of Suffolk appear to be weaker than those with Cambridgeshire.
9.20 In light of the inevitably nebulous nature of functional economic markets, it is helpful for Local Planning Authorities to identify a pragmatic and logical “best fit” with these various areas within the context of establishing Local Plan evidence and for the purposes of developing policy. Economic development needs have been assessed within this ELR for the local authority area of St Edmundsbury in order to inform the new joint West Suffolk Local Plan although in reality the flows of labour, residents and businesses operate across administrative boundaries and it is important to recognise these flows and economic relationships in Duty to Cooperate terms.
9.21 In particular, proposals for the Suffolk Business Park extension have the potential over the medium to longer term to attract investment from further afield along the A14 corridor and provide the Borough with a genuinely strategic employment location. Part of the extension site has also been granted EZ status with a focus upon creating a successful business environment for companies in the digital and new media, food and agriculture and high value manufacturing clusters. The combination of this designation and the scale of land available have the potential to alter existing geographies and change the spatial extent of St Edmundsbury’s FEMA by opening it up to a broader sub-regional property market area. Within this wider market area, the Business Park is likely to face competition from other strategic employment proposals and sites that are anticipated to come forward over the plan period, including Stowmarket EAST and the Thetford Sustainable Urban Extension, so it will be important to develop a clear identity and ‘USP’ for the site, to enable it to stand out and compete effectively for investment.
Constructing a Delivery Trajectory for Employment Sites
9.22 In light of the scale of pipeline employment land that has the potential to become available for use over the study period and the resulting surplus of employment land likely to arise under all three growth scenarios considered by this study, there is a need for the Borough to identify a realistic delivery trajectory for these employment sites and to understand which sites offer the greatest prospects of accommodating B class development over the period to 2031. This will be particularly important as work commences towards the end of this year on a new joint West Suffolk Local Plan. As noted above, this may involve rationalising the Borough’s existing supply (including longstanding allocations) in locations like Shepherd’s Grove and Haverhill and consolidating this supply into sites and locations that are most suited to meeting business
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needs over the plan period, including footloose needs and investment flowing along the A14 corridor.
9.23 Accordingly, it is recommended that the Council should evidence how its portfolio of allocations and other development opportunities will support delivery of new space over the short, medium and long-term (structured broadly in five year periods). This accords with the approach set out in the former SEEPB guidance on employment land assessments which encouraged local authorities to demonstrate a five-year rolling supply of employment land.
9.24 Where any gaps are identified, the Council will want to consider options for how this can be addressed (potentially in the form of new allocations). It is helpful for sites to be assessed on a consistent basis in order to determine at broadly what point in the Plan period they may become available, and how important any individual site is for meeting either office or industrial needs within any rolling five-year period. It will also be important in establishing any potential mismatch between identified allocations and those areas of the Borough that attract the strongest levels of market demand.
9.25 In determining the likely timing and availability of land, this delivery trajectory should have regard to: a the planning status of sites (extant planning permission, allocation etc); b development constraints/costs and known requirements for infrastructure (more detailed assessment work may be required); c current developer/landowner aspirations; and d market delivery and viability factors.
9.26 The assessment provides the opportunity to identify and map out the Local Plan’s ‘when’, ‘whom’ and ‘how’ employment space delivery actions for each site. In turn, it will also offer a basis to continually assess the potential role of a site in meeting employment land and other Local Plan objectives (and, inter alia, the policy benefits that would accrue if earlier delivery of the site was encouraged). The trajectory should be linked to the annual monitoring process and periodically updated to ensure the rolling supply of employment land during the new Local Plan period.
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Appendix 1: Consultees
John Casson – Marshall Buck and Casson Richard Pyatt – Hazells
Simon Burton – Barker Storey Matthews
Gordon Ellis – Merrifields Paul Donno – Haverhill Chamber of Commerce
Richard Glinn – New Anglia Growth Hub / New Anglia LEP
Andrew Anderson – Jaynic Properties James Glerum – Bream Real Estate
Alex Till – Menta
Phil Stittle – West Suffolk College Adrian Cannard – Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough Enterprise Partnership (LEP)
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Appendix 2: Summary Feedback from Stakeholder Consultation
A summary of the feedback received from the stakeholder consultation undertaken as part of the study is provided below.
General Feedback West Suffolk provides a haven for SMEs and accommodates a varied mix of companies. It has reasonable connectivity and links, particularly via the A14. The local Chambers of Commerce are very pro-active in supporting businesses.
Key strategic issues with regards to planning for growth in West Suffolk:
How best to spread the ‘spill-over’ benefits from the Cambridge Innovation Cluster to the wider LEP area including Forest Heath and St Edmundsbury
Key market towns have an increasing role to play in accommodating growth, each with their own unique economy and sector focus
How to bring ex-MOD sites forward to accommodate wider development needs
Working with partners to address strategic infrastructure and transport issues and growth pressures including A14 Cambridge to Huntingdon stretch and the sub-region’s railway routes
West Suffolk represents a desirable place to live and work, with relatively low unemployment and good local workforce skills.
However, whilst road links are relatively good, there are some key pinch points and infrastructure issues (particularly associated with the A14) whilst broadband and mobile signal also provides a barrier to business growth.
There is a perception that the pace of employment growth has not kept up with house building in the area, and a more proactive strategy is needed to boost job growth and help the local area to become more self-sufficient economically.
Business Support
Business support in the area is very good when requested. An example of this is the LEP funded Growth Hub currently based in Ipswich, but this could benefit from a permanent West Suffolk presence.
Growth Sectors Key growth sectors in the West Suffolk area are considered to include advanced manufacturing, health and life sciences, agritech, hospitality and construction. Businesses in the local area tend to be healthy, diverse and exciting. It is important that they are held onto, and continue to be supported. Growth needs to focus on boosting the local economy and create jobs, albeit this has been stymied by the recent downturn.
Creative industries represent an emerging growth sector and West Suffolk College have been working on a bid to expand their offer around digital and creative skills.
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Infrastructure
There is recognition that investment in infrastructure is not keeping up with the pace of development in the West Suffolk area, and existing capacity is mostly exhausted. Mobile phone coverage and access to high speed broadband is patchy, and this is impacting upon rural businesses most.
Location Specific Feedback Haverhill is particularly Cambridge-focused in market terms, located near the border between Suffolk, Cambridge and Essex. The town has been growing over recent years and this is set to continue over the next 5 to 10 years. Economic linkages and relationships are weaker with the rest of Suffolk, partly as a result of its location and relatively poor road links. The Haverhill Research Park has so far failed to come forward despite its Enterprise Zone (EZ) status and associated occupier benefits. It has a CB (Cambridge) postcode so could be attractive to Cambridge occupiers and investors. Whilst the local population are relatively well skilled, additional skilled workers would probably need to be attracted to Haverhill to occupy the Research Park. Stakeholders consider that an Enterprise Centre should be incorporated within the Research Park, to serve local businesses and also potentially those moving out of Cambridge.
The employment (B class) element of the Haverhill Research Park has been actively marketed over the past 4-5 years but this hasn’t generated sufficient interest for development to commence. The target market is office and R&D occupiers but the town doesn’t currently have an established office market. The site is located on the outskirts of the town but the intention is that a high quality environment and setting would put it on a par with other sites closer to Cambridge (including the Southern Cambridge Cluster). EZ status would provide firms with business rate relief and rents would also be considerably lower than in Cambridge. The key challenge is that many R&D occupiers value a Cambridge cluster location over the prospect of saving money on rent.
In the current climate and over the short term there are no realistic prospects for speculative development at the Research Park. Haverhill lacks the necessary well-established and strong commercial market to enable speculative development to happen (in a way that is currently happening in Cambridge for example).
Anecdotal feedback suggests that there is a steady stream of Cambridge occupiers looking to move out of the city, having become tired of traffic, house prices etc. In this context, Bury St Edmunds provides a popular and desirable alternative location as it offers a good quality, but more affordable quality of life.
The Suffolk Business Park extension on the edge of Bury St Edmunds has taken longer than anticipated to reach the stage it is currently at (i.e. nearing the start of development) due to the need to construct the eastern relief road to open up the 168 acre site. This has meant that Bury has historically been rather constrained in terms of land for new development and there is reported to be pent up demand in the local market. The scale of the extension and the nature of uses proposed have the potential to transform the town’s commercial property market, and stakeholders are very optimistic about its short term prospects.
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Appendix 3: IDBR Business Maps
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Appendix 4: VOA Business Floorspace Maps
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Appendix 5: Site Plans
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Key
Existing Employment Site
Proposed Employment Site
RV4(k):
Wratting (North) ! !
! ! !
! !!! ! ! !! ! RV4(k): Wratting !! !!!!! ! ! !!!!! (South)
!
!! ! ! !! !!! !!!! St. Edmundsbury Local Authority Context
CS9, HV10: Hanchet End, Haverhill
CS11, CS12, HV4: Haverhill North-East
HV7(c): Rear of Argos and Post Office
HV7(b): HV7(e): Chauntry Mill Brook Service High Street Road Car Park HV9(e): Haverhill, Stour Valley Road, HV7(d): Project Office Cleale's Town Furniture Hall Car Park HV7(a): Wisdom Toothbrushes Factory
Project West Suffolk ELR HV9(c): Haverhill, Industral Estate HV9(d): Title St. Edmundsbury: Employment Sites Haverhill, HV9(b): Homefield Road Haverhill, Falconer Road
HV9(a): Haverhill, Client St. Edmundsbury Borough Council Bumpstead Road Date 27.03.2017
Scale - N Drawn by MAR Drg. No GIS\CL\15221\01-06
GIS Reference: S:\CL15221 - West Suffolk ELR\CL15221 - West Suffolk ELR - St. Edmundsbury - Employment Sites (01) - 30.06.2016.mxd Key
RV4(a): Barrow, Existing Employment Site Business Park
Proposed Employment Site
! ! RV4(b): Chedburgh (North) ! ! !
! !!! ! ! !! ! !! !!!!! ! ! !!!!!
!
!! ! ! !! RV4(b): Chedburgh (South) !!! !!!! St. Edmundsbury Local Authority Context
RV4(c): Clare, Chilton Street Business Park
RV4(d): Clare, Bridewell Industral Estate
Project West Suffolk ELR
Title St. Edmundsbury: Employment Sites
Client St. Edmundsbury Borough Council
Date 27.03.2017
Scale - N Drawn by MAR Drg. No GIS\CL\15221\01-07
GIS Reference: S:\CL15221 - West Suffolk ELR\CL15221 - West Suffolk ELR - St. Edmundsbury - Employment Sites (02) - 30.06.2016.mxd Key
Existing Employment Site RV4(g): Ixworth, land off Bardwell Road Proposed Employment Site
! ! RV4(f): Ingham ! ! !
! !!! ! ! !! ! !! !!!!! ! ! !!!!!
!
!! ! ! !! !!! !!!! St. Edmundsbury Local Authority Context
RV4(h): Risby Business Park
Project West Suffolk ELR
Title St. Edmundsbury: Employment Sites
Client St. Edmundsbury Borough Council
Date 27.03.2017
Scale - N RV4(i): Saxham Drawn by MAR Drg. No GIS\CL\15221\01-08
GIS Reference: S:\CL15221 - West Suffolk ELR\CL15221 - West Suffolk ELR - St. Edmundsbury - Employment Sites (03) - 30.06.2016.mxd Key
Existing Employment Site
RV4(e): Barnham, Gorse Industrial Estate Proposed Employment Site
! !
! ! !
! !!! ! ! !! ! !! !!!!! ! ! !!!!!
!
!! ! ! !! !!! !!!! St. Edmundsbury Local Authority Context RV4(e): Barnham, Station Yard
RV4(j): Stanton, Shepherds Grove
Project West Suffolk ELR
Title St. Edmundsbury: Employment Sites
Client St. Edmundsbury Borough Council
Date 27.03.2017
Scale - N Drawn by MAR Drg. No GIS\CL\15221\01-09
GIS Reference: S:\CL15221 - West Suffolk ELR\CL15221 - West Suffolk ELR - St. Edmundsbury - Employment Sites (04) - 30.06.2016.mxd Key
Existing Employment Site
Proposed Employment Site
! !
! ! !
! !!! ! ! !! ! !! !!!!! ! ! !!!!!
!
BV14(i), BV15(e): Bury St Edmunds, Mildenhall Road !! ! ! !! !!! !!!! St. Edmundsbury BV14(k), BV15(f): Local Authority Bury St Edmunds, Context Northern Way
CS11, CS12, BV3: Bury St Edmunds North West
BV14(d), BV15(c): Bury St Edmunds, Hollow Road, British Sugar
BV14(a): Bury St Edmunds, Anglian Lane BV14(f): Bury St Edmunds, BV8: Chapel Pond Hill Station Hill Development Area
BV14(g), BV15(d): BV14(h): Bury St Edmunds, Bury St Edmunds, BV14(b), BV15(a): Eastern Way Etna Road, Bury St Edmunds, Enterprise Park Barton Road BV14(l), BV15(g): Project West Suffolk ELR Bury St Edmunds, Western Way BV11: BV9: Land at Ram Title St. Edmundsbury: Employment Sites Tayfen Road Meadow Development Area
BV14(c), BV15(b): Bury St Edmunds, Blenheim Park Client St. Edmundsbury Borough Council
Date 27.03.2017
Scale - N Drawn by MAR Drg. No GIS\CL\15221\01-10
GIS Reference: S:\CL15221 - West Suffolk ELR\CL15221 - West Suffolk ELR - St. Edmundsbury - Employment Sites (05) - 30.06.2016.mxd Key
Existing Employment Site
Proposed Employment Site
! !
! ! !
! !!! ! ! !! ! !! !!!!! ! ! !!!!!
!
BV14(d), BV15(c): Bury St Edmunds, !! ! ! !! !!! Hollow Road, !!!! St. Edmundsbury British Sugar CS11, CS12, BV6: Local Authority Bury St Edmunds North East Context
BV14(f): Bury St Edmunds, Chapel Pond Hill
BV14(h): BV14(g), BV15(d): BV14(b), BV15(a): Bury St Edmunds, Bury St Edmunds, Bury St Edmunds, Etna Road, Eastern Way Barton Road Enterprise Park
BV11: Land at Ram Meadow CS9, BV13: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk Business Park (West RIE)
BV14(m): Bury St Edmunds, BV14(n): Greene King, Rougham Friars Lane (North) Industrial Estate BV14(e): CS9, BV13: Bury St Edmunds, Bury St Edmunds, BV14(j): Suffolk Business Park Suffolk Business Park Bury St Edmunds, (East RIE) Moreton Hall
Project West Suffolk ELR
Title St. Edmundsbury: Employment Sites
BV14(m): Bury St Edmunds, Client St. Edmundsbury Borough Council Greene King, Friars Lane (South) Date 27.03.2017
Scale - N Drawn by MAR Drg. No GIS\CL\15221\01-11
GIS Reference: S:\CL15221 - West Suffolk ELR\CL15221 - West Suffolk ELR - St. Edmundsbury - Employment Sites (06) - 30.06.2016.mxd
St Edmundsbury Employment Land Review : Final Report
Appendix 6: Site Assessment Criteria
The criteria for assessing the quality/condition of allocated and other existing sites are set out below. These criteria mainly relate to the inherent value of a site rather than current conditions on it, although such characteristics would also be noted. Additional criteria would apply to undeveloped allocated/development sites although ownership and availability information may not be possible to obtain in many cases and a judgement may need to be made on these.
Each site is given a score of between 1 and 5 against each criterion (1 = poor, 5 = very good). No individual weightings are attached to different criteria.
Scorings can reflect a combination of different factors applying to the same criteria and a balanced judgment has to be made on an appropriate overall score.
Strategic Road Access 5 = Very good: within 2 Km of strategic road junction/ via good unconstrained roads
1 = Poor: over 5 Km from strategic road junction/access, and/or through constrained/local roads, and/or through town centre or residential areas etc.
NB: Strategic road is typically defined as a motorway or A class trunk road
Local Accessibility
5 = Very good local access: via free moving good roads avoiding residential areas/difficult junctions; unconstrained vehicle access to the site with good visibility/lack of queuing; close access to range of town centre public transport services
1 = Poor: difficult/narrow road access, via residential roads, difficult site access junction, congested local roads; low level/limited range/infrequent public transport services nearby
Proximity to Urban Areas and Access to Labour and Services 5 = Very good: near centre of urban area with wide range of services nearby; proximity to sizeable residential areas providing local labour supply
1 = Poor: remote isolated site, no local services or residential areas nearby
Site characteristics and development constraints 5 = Very good: generally level site, regular shape, over 3 ha in size; low flood risk (Zone 1); no conservation or landscape constraints on scale of development; no adverse ground conditions or abnormal development costs; no other significant constraints on new development
1 = Poor: sloping/uneven site; under 0.5 ha, irregular/narrow shape, other severe constraints; within flood risk Zone 3; conservation or landscape constraints on scale of development; adverse ground conditions or abnormal development costs
Proximity to incompatible uses 5 = Within larger employment area/no incompatible surrounding land use
3-4 = B1 use adjoining residential/other sensitive uses
1 = B2/B8 adjoining residential/other sensitive uses
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Market Attractiveness
5 = Very good: high profile/high quality appearance, managed site; good environment and quality of occupiers; under 10% vacant; viewed as attractive by agents/occupiers; recent investment/development activity, strong demand, units rarely available 1 = Poor: run-down unattractive appearance/location; attracts lower end users and over 25% vacant space/buildings; vacant units not marketed; no recent investment; units remain vacant for lengthy period
Sequential Status
Applies to existing/potential office sites only – identifies whether site is in town centre, edge of centre or out-of-centre location in NPPF terms
Barriers to Delivery Identify any factors that would constrain development of the site for employment uses e.g. site occupied, need for infrastructure
Vacant Sites and Derelict Buildings The potential for any vacant site or derelict building to be developed/ regenerated for employment uses
Planning Factors
Identify any planning designations or policy constraints that could affect development of the site for employment use
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Appendix 7: Site Assessment Matrix
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Site Ref Site Name Area Site Status Site Assessment Criteria Future Potential Sequential (ha) / Existing Status Use Planning Factors Key Barriers to Delivery Timescale for Potential Delivery Uses
Strategic Access Strategic Local Access ProximityLabour & Services to Compatibility of Adjoining Uses Development & Environmental Constraints AttractivenessMarket of 30) (out SCORE TOTAL BV14(a) Anglian Lane 6.22 Industrial 3 2 3 2 3 3 16 General Employment Area; Policy BV14 No major barriers to delivery Short Term B1, B2, B8 N/A (a-n) BV14(b), Barton Road 4.35 Industrial 3 2 3 2 3 2 15 General Employment Area; Policy BV15 No major barriers to delivery Short Term B1, B2, B8 N/A BV15(a) (a-g) BV14(c), Blenheim Park 10.49 Mixed Use 5 3 3 4 3 4 22 General Employment Area; Policy BV15 Constrained site with significant Long term B2, B8 Centre BV15(b) (a-g). levels of hardstanding already on site. BV14(d), Hollow Road, 60.75 Industrial 5 2 3 5 4 4 23 British Sugar – Areas North of Fully developed site Long term B2, B8 N/A BV15(c) British Sugar Compiegne Way; Policy BV16 BV14(e) Suffolk Business 28.35 Mixed Use 5 3 3 5 5 5 26 General Employment Area; Policy BV14 No major barriers to delivery Medium to Long B1, B2, B8 Edge of Centre Park (a-n) term BV14(f) Chapel Pond Hill 20.09 Industrial 5 3 3 5 4 4 24 General Employment Area; Policy BV14 No major barriers to delivery Long Term B1, B2 N/A (a-n) although adjacent to an area of Flood Zone 2 designation. BV14(g), Eastern Way 17.63 Industrial 4 2 3 3 3 4 19 General Employment Area; Policy BV14 No major barriers to delivery Long Term B1, B2 N/A BV15(d) Use (a-n), Policy BV15 (a-g) BV14(h) Etna Road 0.97 Industrial 4 4 2 4 4 4 22 General Employment Area; Policy BV14 Fully developed site with a mixture Long Term B2, B8 N/A Enterprise Park (a-n) of Flood Zone 2 and 3 designations. BV14(i), Mildenhall Road 14.27 Industrial/Lo 3 4 4 3 4 4 22 General Employment Area; Policy BV14 Significant development currently Long Term B2, B8 N/A BV15(e) gistics (a-n), Policy BV15 (a-g) on site, and sits adjacent to the railway line. Also subject to Flood Zone 3 designation. BV14(j) Moreton Hall 18.14 Industrial 4 3 2 5 3 3 20 General Employment Area; Policy BV14 Reasonable amount of Medium Term B1, B2, B8 N/A (a-n) development already on site BV14(k), Northern Way 25.56 Mixed Use 2 3 3 3 4 3 18 General Employment Area; Policy BV14 Fully developed site Medium – Long B1,B2, B8 Edge of Centre BV14(f) (a-n) Term BV14(l), Western Way 18.72 Mixed Use 3 2 5 4 4 4 22 General Employment Area; Policy BV14 No major barriers to delivery Medium to Long B1,B2 Edge of Centre BV15(g) (a-n), Policy BV15 (a-g) Term BV14(m) Greene King, 5.53 Industrial 2 2 5 2 2 4 17 General Employment Area; Policy BV14 No major barriers although single Medium to Long B1, B2 N/A Friars Lane (a-n) occupier on fully developed site Term
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St Edmundsbury Employment Land Review : Final Report
(South), BV14(m) Greene King 1.37 Mixed Use 2 2 5 2 2 4 17 General Employment Area; Policy BV14 Developed site with sole occupier Long Term B1 Centre Friars Lane (a-n) (North) BV14(n) Rougham 21.32 Industrial 4 2 1 4 3 4 18 General Employment Area; Policy BV14 No major barriers to delivery Medium – Long B2, B8 N/A Industrial Estate (a-n) Term HV9(a) Bumpstead Road 14.32 Industrial/Lo 4 3 4 5 5 4 25 General Employment Area; Policy HV9 Fully developed site Long Term B2, B8 N/A gistics (a-f) HV9(b) Falconer Road 21.57 Mixed Use 4 3 4 3 3 4 21 General Employment Area; Policy HV9 No major barriers to delivery – Short Term B2,B8 Out of Centre (a-f) Construction already started HV9(c) Haverhill 73.31 Industrial 4 3 4 4 4 4 23 General Employment Area; Policy HV9 Fully developed site, located Long Term B1 N/A Industrial Estate (a-f) adjacent to high levels of residential use HV9(d) Homefield Road 12.19 Mixed Use 4 2 2 5 4 4 21 General Employment Area; Policy HV9 No major barriers to delivery Short- Medium Term B2, B8 Out of Centre (a-f) HV9(e) Stour Valley 4.25 Industrial 3 2 4 3 1 2 15 General Employment Area; Policy HV9 Very small site, sits adjacent to Medium Term B1 N/A Road, Project (a-f) new residential development Office Furniture RV4(a) Barrow, Business 1.07 Mixed Use 4 1 2 3 5 2 17 General Employment Area; Policy RV4 No major barriers to delivery Short - Medium B1, B2, B8 N/A Park RV4(b) Chedburgh 9.86 Industrial 3 3 2 4 3 3 18 General Employment Area; Policy RV4 Fully built out site Short - Medium B2, B8 N/A (South) RV4(b) Chedburgh 2 Industrial/Lo 3 3 3 2 3 4 18 General Employment Area; Policy RV4 Fully built out site Short - Medium B2, B8 N/A (North) gistics RV4(c) Clare, Chilton 0.51 Light 2 2 3 4 4 3 18 General Employment Area; Policy RV4 No major barriers to delivery Short - Medium B1, B2 Out of Centre Street Business Industrial Park RV4(d) Clare, Bridewell 0.52 Industrial 2 4 4 4 2 2 18 General Employment Area; Policy RV4 Fully built out site, located in an Long B1,B2, B8 Out of Centre Industrial Estate area of Flood Zone 3. RV4(e) Barnham, Station 2.3 Industrial 2 2 2 5 3 3 17 General Employment Area; Policy RV4 Adjacent to areas of Flood Zone 3 Medium B2, B8 N/A Yard designation. RV4(e) Barnham, Gorse 9.34 Industrial 3 1 1 5 2 3 15 General Employment Area; Policy RV4 No major barriers to delivery Short - Medium B2, B8 N/A Industrial Estate RV4(f) Ingham 2.32 Mixed Use 4 2 3 3 3 2 17 General Employment Area; Policy RV4 Fully built out site Medium - Long B2, B8 N/A RV4(g) Ixworth, land off 1.63 Greenfield 3 3 3 4 5 3 21 General Employment Area; Policy RV4 No major barriers to delivery Short - Medium B1, B2, B8 Out of Centre Bardwell Road RV4(h) Risby Business 3.06 Brownfield 5 2 3 5 5 5 25 General Employment Area; Policy RV4 Some current hardstanding on site Medium - Long B1, B2, B8 Out of Centre Park and multiple units RV4(i) Saxham 23.27 Industrial 5 2 3 5 5 5 25 General Employment Area; Policy RV4 No major barriers to delivery Short - Medium B1,B2,B8 Out of Centre RV4(j) Stanton, 95.51 Mixed Use 3 2 1 3 3 2 14 General Employment Area; Policy RV4 No major barriers to delivery Short - Medium B1,B2,B8 Out of Centre Shepherds Grove RV4(k) Wratting (North) 6.82 Industrial 4 4 3 4 3 3 21 General Employment Area; Policy RV4 Fully built out site Long B2,B8 N/A RV4(k) Wratting (South) 2.37 Industrial 4 4 2 4 3 3 20 General Employment Area; Policy RV4 Significant developed site Medium - Long B2,B8 N/A
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St Edmundsbury Employment Land Review : Final Report
BV11 Land at Ram 3.7 Greenfield 2 4 4 5 4 3 22 Mixed Use Allocations; Policy BV11 Football ground currently on site Long B1, B2, B8 N/A Meadow BV8 Station Hill 5.96 Brownfield 3 5 3 4 4 3 22 Mixed Use Allocations; Policy BV8 Some hardstanding currently on Medium - Long B1, B2, B8 Edge of Centre development site which will act as a barrier to area development in the short term BV9 Tayfen Road 4.15 Brownfield 3 5 3 4 4 3 22 Mixed Use Allocations; Policy BV9 No major barriers to delivery Short - Medium B1, B2 Edge of Centre development area CS11, Bury St Edmunds 77.78 Greenfield 3 3 3 5 5 3 22 Strategic Greenfield Site; Policy CS11, No major barriers to delivery Short - Medium B1, B2, B8 N/A CS12, BV3 North West CS12 and BV3 CS11, Bury St Edmunds 89.21 Greenfield 4 1 5 5 5 3 23 Strategic Greenfield Site; Policy CS11, No major barriers to delivery Short - Medium B1, B2, B8 N/A CS12, BV6 North East CS12 and BV6 CS11, Haverhill North- 175.84 Greenfield 3 2 3 3 4 3 19 Strategic Greenfield Site; Policy CS11, No major barriers to delivery Short - Medium B1, B2, B8 N/A CS12, HV4 East CS12 and HV4 CS9, BV13 Bury St 54.06 Greenfield 5 1 5 5 4 4 24 Strategic Employment Site; Policy CS9, No major barriers to delivery Short - Medium B1,B2, B8 Out of Centre Edmunds, Suffolk BV13, HV10 Business Park (East RIE) CS9, BV13 Bury St 13.92 Greenfield 5 1 5 5 3 4 23 Strategic Employment Site; Policy CS9, No major barriers to delivery Short - Medium B1,B2, B8 Out of Centre Edmunds, Suffolk BV13 Business Park (West RIE) CS9, HV10 Hanchet End, 12.48 Mixed Use – 4 3 3 4 4 3 21 Strategic Employment Site; Policy CS9, No major barriers – Housing Short B1, B2 Out of Centre Haverhill Some HV10 portion of site already completed construction completed HV7(a) Wisdom 1.52 Industrial 2 4 3 2 2 2 15 Mixed Use Allocations; Policy HV7 No major barriers to delivery Short - Medium B1 Centre Toothbrushes Factory HV7(b) Chauntry Mill 1.24 Industrial 2 2 2 2 1 2 11 Mixed Use Allocations; Policy HV7 Large unit currently on site that Medium - Long B1 Centre High Street would have to be removed HV7(c) Rear of Argos 0.38 Car Park 3 3 3 3 4 3 19 Mixed Use Allocations; Policy HV7 No major barriers to delivery Short - Medium B1 Centre and Post Office HV7(d) Cleales Town 1.29 Car Park 3 5 5 3 3 3 22 Mixed Use Allocations; Policy HV7 No major barriers to delivery Short - Medium B1 Centre Hall Car Park HV7(e) Brook Service 0.86 Car Park 3 4 4 5 4 4 24 Mixed Use Allocations; Policy HV7 No major barriers to delivery Short - Medium B1 Centre Road Car Park
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Appendix 8: 2016 EEFM Methodology and Data Sources
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East of England Forecasting Model Technical report: Model description and data sources
Technical Report September Cambridge Econometrics [email protected] 2016 Cambridge, UK www.camecon.com East of England Forecasting Model: Technical Report
Cambridge Econometrics’ mission is to provide rigorous, accessible and relevant independent economic analysis to support strategic planners and policy-makers in business and government, doing work that we are interested in and can be proud of.
Cambridge Econometrics Limited is owned by a charitable body, the Cambridge Trust for New Thinking in Economics. www.neweconomicthinking.org
Cambridge Econometrics 2 Authorisation and Version History
Version Date Authorised for release Description by 1.0 15/12/2016 Mike May-Gillings Technical report (Associate Director, CE)
East of England Forecasting Model: Technical Report
Contents
Page
1 Introduction 6
2 Description of the model 7 2.1 Structure of the EEFM 7 2.2 Geography 7 2.3 Time periods 8 2.4 Things to remember when using the model 8 2.5 Coverage 9 2.6 Links with other models 11
3 Model overview 12 3.1 Variables in the EEFM 12 3.2 Economic variables 12 3.3 Demographic variables 17 3.4 Housing variables 19 3.5 Carbon emissions 20
4 Data sources 22 4.1 Labour market 22 4.2 Commuting 23 4.3 Demography 23 4.4 Output 24 4.5 Housing 24 4.6 Carbon emissions 24
5 Outliers and data validity 25 5.1 BRES outliers 25 5.2 Data checking and validity procedures 26
6 Employment land use methodology 28 6.1 Key outputs 28 6.2 Measure of employment 28 6.3 Employment densities 28 6.4 Allocating employment sectors to use classes 30 6.5 Detailed office uses 32
4 East of England Forecasting Model: Technical Report
Tables Table 5.1 Adjustments made to 2014 BRES data used in setting forecasts 26 Table 6.1 Employment densities by use, 2010 guide 28 Table 6.2 Employment densities – industry, warehousing and office (GIA) 29 Table 6.3 Employment densities detailed office use 29 Table 6.4 Allocation of employment sectors by use class, SIC07 31 Table 6.5 Allocation of office employment sectors by detailed office use classes, SIC07 32
Figures Figure 2.1 Links with Cambridge Econometrics' suite of models 11 Figure 3.1 Main relationships between variables in the EEFM 12
5 East of England Forecasting Model: Technical Report
1 Introduction
The East of England Forecasting Model (EEFM) was developed to project economic, demographic and housing trends in a consistent fashion and in a way that would help inform spatial economic planning in the East of England. The Model is programmed in Excel spreadsheets, allowing users to produce scenarios under which the impacts of a given scenario can be monitored. This report provides technical information on the EEFM’s coverage, methodology and data sources. (The latest forecast results are presented separately, on the Cambridgeshire Insight website.) The Model’s outputs are just one piece of evidence to assist in making strategic decisions. As in all models, forecasts are subject to margins of error which increase at more detailed geographical levels. In addition, the EEFM relies heavily on published data, with BRES/ABI employment data in particular containing multiple errors at local sector level (though the Model does attempt to correct for these.) The EEFM is currently maintained and developed by Cambridge Econometrics (CE). CE has a long track record in the development of economic models for strategic planning and policy analysis, at global, national and sub-national level. The outputs and associated documentation of the EEFM are available on the Cambridgeshire Insight website. The purpose of this document is to provide a description of the Model’s methodology and the data sources used, and act as a companion reference guide to the published results. It will be updated as the Model itself is developed, improved and updated. The report is structured as follows: Chapter 2: Description of the Model – This chapter summarises the EEFM coverage with respect to geography, time periods and linkages with other models produced by Cambridge Econometrics. Chapter 3: Model Overview – This chapter summarises the structure of the EEFM, and the linkages and relationships between variables. Chapter 4: Data Used – This chapter lists the variables in the Model, and indicates the latest data used. Chapter 5: Outliers and Data Validity – This chapter summarises Cambridge Econometrics’ approach to anomalous data (so-called “outliers”) and the methods used to check that the EEFM is internally consistent. This report does not provide EEFM forecast results. These can be found on the Cambridgeshire Insight website www.cambridgeshireinsight.org.uk/EEFM. The detailed forecasts are set out there in Excel spreadsheets.
6 East of England Forecasting Model: Technical Report
2 Description of the model
This chapter provides an overview of the East of England Forecasting Model (EEFM) and summarises its coverage and links to other Cambridge Econometrics models and assumptions. It also contains a list of the variables and geographies used. The forecasting methods and data sources are described in subsequent chapters.
2.1 Structure of the EEFM The East of England Forecasting Model is a spreadsheet-based model originally designed to help inform and monitor the development and review of the East of England Regional Economic Strategy and Regional Spatial Strategy. It covers a wide range of variables, and is designed to be flexible so that alternative scenarios can be run and the impacts of different assumptions can be measured. Key features of the Model are: A full database including 151 separate variables for each of the East of England’s 48 pre-April 2009 local authorities, as well as for historic counties, strategic authorities, selected other local authority groupings, the East as a whole, 10 local authorities in the East Midlands and the region as a whole, 21 local authorities in the South East and the region itself, and the UK; Functionality to allow users to develop their own scenarios; A comprehensive set of tables allowing users to select and assemble data on the variables, localities, scenarios and results they want; and A spreadsheet system containing: - Linked worksheets, to facilitate faster updating; - Worksheets structured to generate forecasts and scenarios; - Worksheets designed to produce tables. The overall Model structure captures the interdependence of the economy, demographic change and housing at a local level, as well as reflecting the impact of broader economic trends on the East of England. The employment forecasts take account of the supply and demand for labour, the demographic forecasts reflect labour market trends as they are reflected in migration (and natural change indirectly), and the housing forecasts take account of both economic and demographic factors. This structure allows scenarios which test the impact of variables upon each other – for example, the impact of housing supply on economic variables.
2.2 Geography The Model produces forecasts for each local authority district and unitary authority in the East of England, and selected local authorities in the East Midlands and South East region to allow for LEP aggregation. For the EEFM 2016 forecasts, that equates to 79 local authorities, including the former Mid Bedfordshire and South Bedfordshire districts which have been retained at the request of regional partners. (The new Central Bedfordshire unitary authority is one of the strategic groupings for which forecasts are also provided.)
7 East of England Forecasting Model: Technical Report
Forecasts are also available for selected groupings of local authority districts and unitaries. These were decided in consultation with regional partners through the EEFM Model Steering Group, and also include Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs). For a full list of the groupings available, refer to the EEFM section of the Cambridgeshire Insight website. In addition to these geographies, forecasts for the East of England, East Midlands and South East regions, and for the UK, are available.
2.3 Time periods The EEFM is constructed on an annual basis. Historic data for most variables has been collected over 20 years to provide a basis for estimating the relationships between variables and for forecasting future trends. Forecasts are currently made up to 2045, reflecting the available global, national and regional forecasts. But the longer-term forecasts should be treated with some caution, as unforeseen - but inevitable - future change in the underlying drivers will affect forecast accuracy. Medium-term forecasts are actually more likely to be better approximations than shorter-term ones, as we can usually be more confident about medium-term trends than about short-term random fluctuations around the trend.
2.4 Things to remember when using the model EEFM forecasts are based on observed past trends only Past trends reflect past infrastructure and policy environments. Even where major new investments or policy changes are known and have actually started, they can only affect EEFM forecasts to the extent that they are reflected in the currently available data. If they have not yet impacted on the available data, they will not be reflected in the forecasts. There are two sets of exceptional circumstances in which the currently available data need to be supplemented by other information. The first is where there are concerns about data quality. This issue is explored in Chapter 5. The second is where the Model produces unrealistic forecasts - for example, continuing an employment decline in a particular sector in a particular area until it reaches zero or even negative values. Manual adjustments to the Model are necessary in these situations, and here professional judgement inevitably comes into play. This is discussed further below. The forecasts are unconstrained The EEFM forecasts are unconstrained, which means that the forecast numbers do not take into account any policy or other constraints that might prevent their actual realisation on the ground. Forecasts of the demand for dwellings, for example, are the outcome of projected changes in employment, population, etc. If, in reality, planning constraints were to prevent this demand being satisfied, the associated forecast levels of GVA, employment, population, etc. would be less likely to occur. The forecasts are subject to margins of error As with all kinds of forecasting, there are margins of error associated with the results which tend to widen over time. Furthermore, the quality and reliability of data decreases at more detailed levels of geography. Under current data-quality
8 East of England Forecasting Model: Technical Report
conditions, models are most helpful for identifying trends, average growth rates and broad differentials between areas, sectors, etc. Accordingly, users are encouraged to focus on the patterns over time, not figures for individual years. Reality is more complex than any model Several of the modelled relationships are complicated and their treatment in the EEFM is necessarily simplified, despite its large size. In particular, the demand for housing is complex and not all the factors may be fully captured. Questions such as whether migrants’ apparent willingness to live at higher densities than the existing population is merely a temporary state which requires much more investigation. Forecasting models will not all agree The EEFM’s baseline forecasts can be compared with other published forecasts, but close agreement should not be expected and sometimes there can be wide divergences. These can arise from even small differences in underlying assumptions and in the timing and definitions of the data used. But with an awareness of these factors, the EEFM forecasts provide a useful starting point for an understanding of regional and local economic trends in the East of England, particularly when the baseline is accompanied by alternative scenario forecasts with which it can be compared.
2.5 Coverage Later chapters provide more detailed information on the data used in the EEFM and how the linkages in the Model are used for the forecasting and scenario work. The list below gives an overview of the variables covered by the Model: Demography Population - Total - Working age (defined as all people aged 16-64) - Young (defined as all persons aged 0-15) - Elderly (all people aged 65+) Migration (Note: domestic and international migration are not differentiated in the EEFM at either the regional or the local level. Natural increase
Labour market Employee jobs by 31 sectors (workplace-based, SIC 2007 based) - Agriculture & fishing (SIC 01-03) - Mining & quarrying (SIC 05-09) - Food manufacturing (SIC 10-12) - General manufacturing (SIC 13-18, 31-33) - Chemicals excl. pharmaceuticals (SIC 19-23, excluding 21) - Pharmaceuticals (SIC 21) - Metals manufacturing (SIC 24-25) - Transport equipment, machinery & equipment, etc (SIC 28-30) - Electronics (SIC 26-27) - Utilities (SIC 35-37) - Waste & remediation (SIC 38-39) - Construction (SIC 41-43)
9 East of England Forecasting Model: Technical Report
- Wholesale (SIC 45-46) - Retail (SIC 47) - Land transport (SIC 49, 52-53) - Water & air transport (SIC 50-51) - Hotels & restaurants (SIC 55-56) - Publishing & broadcasting (SIC 58-60) - Telecoms (SIC 61) - Computer related activities (SIC 62-63) - Finance (SIC 64-66) - Real estate (SIC 68) - Professional services excl. R&D activities (SIC 69-75 excluding 72) - Research & development (SIC 72) - Business services excl. employment activities (SIC 77-82 excluding 78) - Employment activities (SIC 78) - Public administration (SIC 84) - Education (SIC 85) - Health & care (SIC 86-88) - Arts & entertainment (SIC 90-93) - Other services (SIC 94-99) Employee jobs – full time and part time by 31 sectors (workplace-based) Self-employed jobs by 31 sectors (workplace-based) Total employment (employee jobs plus self-employed jobs) by 31 sectors (workplace-based) Total number of people employed in an area (consistent with 2001 and 2011 Census points) Total number of an area’s residents who are employed (consistent with 2001 and 2011 Census points) Employment rate of an area’s residents (aged 16-74, consistent with 2001 and 2011 Census points) Net commuting (number of people employed in an area, minus the number of that area’s residents who are employed) Unemployed (claimant and ILO)
Output GVA by 31 sectors (£m, workplace-based, 2011 prices for the EEFM 2016 forecasts). Note that ownership of dwellings (imputed rents as defined in the Blue Book) is now included within real estate sector. Productivity by 31 sectors (per job, including both employee and self- employed jobs)
Housing Households Demand for dwellings
10 East of England Forecasting Model: Technical Report
2.6 Links with other models An important feature of the EEFM is its links to other Cambridge Econometrics forecasting models, ensuring that all EEFM forecasts are consistent with Cambridge Econometrics’ world, UK national and UK regional forecasts. The links are summarised in Figure 2.1. Figure 2.1 Links with Cambridge Econometrics' suite of models
11 East of England Forecasting Model: Technical Report
3 Model overview
The structure and data inputs of Cambridge Econometrics’ UK Regional Model, which underpins the EEFM, is not set out here. But it can be obtained from Cambridge Econometrics on request.
3.1 Variables in the EEFM The EEFM is very large, with numerous economic, demographic and housing indicators. Each of these variables is linked to others within the Model, and many key variables are also linked to others in the wider Cambridge Econometrics suite of models. The main internal relationships between variables are encapsulated in Figure 3.1, and the forecasting methodology for each element in the Model is then summarised. Figure 3.1 Main relationships between variables in the EEFM
3.2 Economic variables Workplace employees (jobs) The total number of employee jobs in an area, whether full- or part-time. These can be taken by residents or by commuters from outside. Note that this is a measure of jobs, not workers, so if one person has two part-time jobs, for example, they are counted twice. This is forecast separately in every area for each of the 31 sectors listed on pages 9 and 10. The forecasts begin with something called a “location quotient” (LQ). This is a ratio which summarises the concentration of a particular sector in a particular area, relative to the regional average. So an LQ of 0.8 (or 80%) for a given sector and area means that that sector is under-represented in the
12 East of England Forecasting Model: Technical Report
area. An LQ of 1.25 (or 125%) means that the sector is overrepresented in the area. The EEFM contains location quotients for every local authority in the East region including the additional local authorities in the East Midlands and South East region required to construct LEP aggregates, for each of the 31 sectors, and for every year since 1991. Forecast trends in the LQs are based on how they have changed over time. So if the LQ for a given sector in a given area has been rising in recent years, the forecasts will project this to continue, and vice versa. LQs which have been stable for a long time (including at zero) will be forecast to remain so. Three forms of location quotient are used in the EEFM. In the first, the LQ is based on an area’s share of the region’s employees in a particular sector. This is most appropriate for sectors which are essentially independent of the local economy (e.g., manufacturing). Their activities are largely driven by regional, national or international suppliers and customers, and the goods and services they produce are typically traded over long distances. The EEFM treats the following sectors in this way: Agriculture Mining & quarrying Food manufacturing General manufacturing Chemicals excluding pharmaceuticals Pharmaceuticals Metals manufacturing Transport equipment, machinery & equipment, etc. Electronics Utilities Waste & remediation Water & air transport Publishing & broadcasting Telecoms Computer related activity Research & development Other services
For this group, the local employee growth forecasts in the EEFM come from the interaction of the relevant LQ forecasts with the regional sector employee forecasts from Cambridge Econometrics’ UK Regional Model. To take a hypothetical example, if the UK Regional Model forecasts a 5% increase in air transport employees in the East of England, this filters down to the local area forecasts in the EEFM. If the LQ for air transport in a given area is forecast to remain stable, the employee forecasts for air transport in that area will tend to show a 5% increase. (In absolute terms, this means many new jobs in areas
13 East of England Forecasting Model: Technical Report
with high LQs and relatively few in areas with low LQs.) If the LQ is forecast to increase (or decrease) in an area, the local employee growth forecasts for air transport will tend to be more than (or less than) 5%. The LQ in an area can also be based on the number of employees in a given sector per head of the local population, relative to the regional average. This is most appropriate for sectors in which employment change is primarily (but rarely exclusively) driven by changes in the local population (e.g., health and education). In the EEFM, this group includes: Wholesale Retailing Hotels & restaurants Public administration Education Heath & care Arts & entertainment
For this group, the local employee growth forecasts in the EEFM come from the interaction of the relevant LQ forecasts with the demographic forecasts for the area (which are also in the EEFM) and for the region as a whole (from the Regional Model). To take the example of education, consider an area which has an education LQ of 1.3 (or 130%) - perhaps because it has a university. Suppose that that LQ has been unchanged for a long time and is forecast to stay the same. And suppose that the area’s population is also forecast to remain stable. But if the region’s population is forecast to increase, education employees in this area will have to increase as well to keep the equation in balance (all other things being equal). This makes sense inasmuch as the area’s education institutions clearly serve a market wider than the local area. Finally, a sector’s LQ can be based on the number of its employees relative to all jobs in the area, relative to the regional average. This is most appropriate for sectors where changes in employment arise primarily from changes in total employment locally - where the latter is effectively a proxy for business activity. (As might be expected, business services sectors tend to be in this group.) In the EEFM, the following are included: Construction Land transport Finance Real estate Professional services Business services Employment activities
In this group, the local employee growth forecasts in the EEFM come from the interaction of the relevant LQ forecasts with the regional sector employment forecasts from the Regional Model.
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Cambridgeshire County Council and Cambridge Econometrics encourage Local Authorities to view and give feedback on the forecast trends for their areas. We regard such feedback as essential to ensure the EEFM is as credible and as accurate as possible. To that end, a consultation with Local Authorities is carried out before publication of each new forecast. Chapter 5 (Table 5.1) records the instances where local intelligence on employment trends has been used to modify initial EEFM assumptions. Full-time and part-time employment The total number of jobs in an area, broken down into full- and part-time jobs. East of England shares of part-time employees among all employees in the 31 EEFM sectors (which are trend forecasts linked to regional and national projections) are applied to the workplace employee estimates described above. Full-time employees are simply the total of employees minus the part-time employees for each of the 31 sectors. Workplace self-employment (jobs) The total number of self-employed jobs in an area. Self-employment data for the East of England in Cambridge Econometrics’ UK Regional Model comes from ONS’s Quarterly Workforce jobs. Self-employment data for local authorities is Census-based, and scaled to the East of England self-employed jobs estimates from the UK Regional Model. It is broken down by the 31 EEFM sectors. The sectors are forecast using the growth in the sectoral employees in employment data and the estimates are scaled to the UK Regional Model’s estimate of self-employment by sector for the East of England. Total workplace employment (people) This is the total number of people in employment in an area, including both residents and commuters. A person who has more than one job is only counted once, so total workplace employed people is smaller than total workplace employment. The employment data from the Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) over the years 2008-14 (and the Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) for earlier years) which is used in the Model measures jobs rather than workers. Because a model aiming to simulate housing demand needs to focus on people, we have to convert the total number of jobs in an area into numbers of employed people. The 2001 and 2011 Census’ give the number of people in employment in an area. For other years, we use BRES/ABI data to estimate residents in employment using the full-time and part-time projections (see above). Individuals are assumed to hold only one full-time job each. Part-time jobs are assumed to account for 0.75 of a full-time job. A simple adjustment is made to scale the indicator so it is consistent with the Census. This measure is not forecast directly, but is derived from the forecasts of jobs discussed above.
15 East of England Forecasting Model: Technical Report
Total workplace employment (jobs) The total number of employee jobs and self-employed jobs in an area. These can be taken by residents or commuters from outside. Note that this includes all full- and part-time jobs, so if someone has two part-time jobs, they are counted twice. This is not forecast separately in the EEFM, but derived by summing the workplace-based employee jobs and self-employed jobs forecasts described above, and then adding in a constant for the Armed Forces (see below). (Note: Armed Forces data are added to the public administration & defence sector.) Residence employment The total number of employed people living in an area. This includes residents who commute elsewhere to work. Residence employment is based on a commuting matrix taken from the 2011 Census. This matrix tells us, for any given area, where its residents work. Using this information, each available job (see workplace employment (people) above) is allocated to a resident of one of the authorities with which the area has commuting links, in proportion to the strength of that link. This method assumes that commuting patterns do not change over time. Net Commuting The number of people commuting into an area for work, less the number of residents commuting out. Net commuting requires no specific forecasting method. It is the residual between an area’s residence-based and workplace-based estimates of numbers of people in employment. (These variables are used to check the realism of the EEFM’s workplace- and residence-based employment forecasts, and can occasionally lead to manual adjustments to the Model.) Our broad assumption is that commuting flows over the forecast period are in line with past trends. Major changes in transport infrastructure, or significant new housebuilding in an area, may bring about changes in commuting patterns, but as indicated in Chapter 2, the EEFM can only take account of such changes if they are reflected in the available data. Claimant unemployed The total number of people in an area without a job and claiming unemployment benefits. The number of unemployed people in area i is projected as: the previous year’s value
plus β1i X (projected change in working-age population)
minus β2iX (projected change in resident employment)
The two coefficients for each local area (β1i and β2i) were estimated based on unemployment, working age population and resident employment data over the period 1992-2014. All coefficients are less than one, reflecting the fact that many people adding to the local working age population go into education (e.g., students) or directly into employment (e.g., by moving to the area specifically to
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take up a new job), and the fact that many new job vacancies in the area will not necessarily be filled by the local unemployed (e.g. migrants, commuters). ILO unemployment (a wider measure of unemployment that includes those who are actively seeking employment but are not claiming unemployment benefit) is also included in the Model and comes from the Annual Population Survey. This data is available from 2004 and is both back-cast and forecast, using growth rates in the claimant series. Gross Value Added (GVA) The total sum of income generated in an area over a specified period, usually a year. It is the sum of wages, profits and rents. An alternative and equivalent definition is the value of gross output less purchases of intermediate goods and services. GVA forecasts are available for 31 sectors. Previously, a sector entitled ‘ownership of dwellings’ (imputed rents in the ONS National Accounts) was excluded from the overall business services sector and published as its own sector. In Summer 2011, the ONS changed its methodology to publish data which included imputed rents within the business services sector. To remain consistent with National data, the EEFM now includes this measure of GVA within the real estate sector. Sub-regionally, limited sector GVA data is available at NUTS 3 level (i.e. for unitaries and shire counties) but not for local authorities. Our initial forecasts at this level are obtained by multiplying forecast regional GVA per job in a sector (from the UK Regional Model) by forecast total workplace employment (jobs) in that sector (from the EEFM) for each local authority. These initial forecasts are then subject to two adjustments. The first is for wage differentials (from ONS’s Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings), which has the effect of increasing GVA disproportionately in areas where wages are higher. The second scales local sector GVA to the most recent published NUTS 3 level GVA estimates for the relevant base year (2011). Productivity GVA divided by total workplace employment (jobs). It measures the average amount of income generated in each area by every person working there. Productivity estimates do not require specific forecasting. They are simply forecast sector GVA divided by forecast total jobs (both employee and self- employed) in that sector. Relative productivity is simply productivity in a specified area, divided by productivity in the region. A relative productivity value greater than 1.0 implies that productivity in that area (and sector) is higher than the regional average, and vice versa.
3.3 Demographic variables Total population The total number of people living in an area. All population data is taken from ONS’s mid-year estimates (MYE) to 2014, and the ONS 2012-based population projections are used thereafter. At local level,
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total population is forecast as last year’s population plus natural increase plus net migration (domestic and international). Working age population The total number of people in an area that are aged 16-64. Working age population for the region is based on the 2012-based ONS subnational population projections (SNPP). For local areas, forecast working age population is forecast total population multiplied by a ratio of working age to total population. This ratio is forecast for each year of the forecast period, and calculated as the previous year’s ratio multiplied by the growth in the ratio regionally according to the ONS (2012- based) projections. Young population The total number of children in an area (defined as all people aged 0-15). The population aged under 16 years is forecast at local authority level using an annual ratio of children to working age people. This ratio is forecast for each year of the forecast period, and calculated as the previous year’s ratio multiplied by the growth in the ratio regionally according to the GAD (2012-based) projections. The regional forecast for this variable is simply the sum of these local area forecasts. Elderly population The total number of elderly people in a given area (defined as all people aged 65+). The local elderly population forecasts are simply the residual of the total population when the young and working age populations are subtracted. The regional forecast for this variable is simply the sum of these local area forecasts. Migration The net flow of people moving into and out of an area, whether this be to/from other parts of the region, the UK or the world. A negative number signifies a net outflow of people from an area, a positive number a net inflow. Regional migration: This comes from Cambridge Econometrics’ assumptions for net migration into the East of England. Total net migration into the region in any given year is based on 2012-based ONS subnational population projections. Local migration: Migration data is sourced from ONS’s population mid-year estimates ‘Components of Change’ data. At local authority level, the number of migrants is the sum of two components: economic migrants and non- economic migrants.
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The number of economic migrants into each area in any given year equals: previous year’s working age population multiplied by [0.01 + 0.29 (if the area’s by the coast, otherwise 0) - (0.16 X previous year’s relative unemployment rate differential from the region unemployment rate)] where the unemployment rate has working age population as the denominator) This formula implies that the number of migrants into a district will equate to 1% of last year’s working age population if the area is not by the coast and the difference between local and regional unemployment rate then was zero. To illustrate with a worked example, in an area not by the coast with 100,000 working age people and a 0.1pp positive difference in relative unemployment rate, net migration the following year will be 100,000 X [0.01 - (0.16 X 0.1)], or 100,000 X [0.01 – 0.016], or 100,000 X -0.006, or -600.
So any change in employment or population in the EEFM which affects unemployment - whether the change is externally-sourced or internally generated within the Model - will affect net migration. Non-economic migrants are set as a constant - unique to every area - for all future years. The constant for a given local authority is selected on the basis that it both reflects the actual population trend for the area over 1991-2011 (from ONS) and implies a local employment rate trend consistent with that for the region as a whole.
3.4 Housing variables Households The total number of households (as defined in official statistics) in an area. Demand for dwellings The total number of dwellings (as defined in official statistics) in an area. The initial household data are as presented in the official DCLG series. The initial dwellings data are the stock data presented in the official DCLG series (table 125 provides total dwelling stock, whilst table 615 provides vacant stock, the residual between these series therefore represents occupied dwelling stock). The method for forecasting the dwelling stock and the number of households is a three stage process. To produce household forecasts, we divide the household population (which is calculated as the total population minus institutional population) by household size, which is in turn based on official DCLG projections. We then forecast the number of occupied dwellings by applying the growth rate in households in a particular year to occupied dwellings in the previous year. Having calculated occupied dwellings, we use the previous year’s ratio of total to occupied dwellings in order to project total dwelling stock in a particular year. We call this “demand for dwellings.” It is intended to proxy dwelling stock, but it is not a conventional stock or supply figure. Rather it tries to estimate what stock might be needed to maintain current occupation ratios in the context of a higher population.
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3.5 Carbon emissions Industry, commercial & energy emissions The amount of CO2 emissions produced by the industrial, commercial & energy sector in an area in any given year. Data for the amount of CO2 emissions produced by the industry, commercial & energy sector is published by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) by local authority. Local authority CO2 emissions forecasts within the industry, commercial & energy sectors were produced by first creating UK carbon weights by industrial sector. This was done using sectoral employment and carbon emissions forecasts from the DECC projections to 2035, and projections from the Energy- Economy-Environment Modelling Laboratory’s Price-Induced Market Equilibrium System (PRIMES) energy system model thereafter. By dividing the emissions in a sector by the number of people in employment in that sector, then dividing this by the emissions for the average UK worker (total UK emissions divided by total UK employment), we are able to get weights showing how carbon intensive specific sectors are. For each local authority, we then calculate a carbon weighted employment figure based on what the employment breakdown in that area is. So a district which employs significantly more of their workforce in the emissions intensive chemicals and processing industries sector would be forecast to have a higher carbon weighted employment figure than a district which had a large agricultural sector. This carbon weighted figure is then multiplied by the average emissions per UK employee, to give a pre-adjusted industrial & commercial emissions forecast. The pre-adjusted forecast also takes into account emissions from the energy sector. These emissions are based on the DECC and PRIMES projections, and we have modelled the energy sector as having no employees as such. Otherwise, we could have a problem where a district with a high number of energy sector employees could be a head office and not really emitting much carbon. So we share the energy sector emissions across districts by multiplying UK energy sector emissions by each district’s share of total UK employment. Finally, we adjust our forecasts based on scaling factors capturing the differences between our calculations for 2005-13 and the 2005-13 DECC data. Domestic emissions The total number of emissions produced by households in an area in any given year. Data for the amount of CO2 emissions produced by the domestic sector is published by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) by local authority. Local authority CO2 emissions forecasts within the domestic sector are assumed to be a function of population i.e. more people means more households and therefore more domestic energy use. We have calculated the UK average level of domestic emissions per person by taking the total UK household emissions from the DECC and PRIMES projections and dividing by UK total population. Then we applied this UK domestic emissions per person
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ratio to the local authority population forecasts in the EEFM to estimate a pre- adjusted domestic emissions forecast by local authority. Then we adjusted the forecasts based on scaling factors capturing the differences between our calculations for 2005-13 and the DECC data during the same years. Transport emissions The total number of emissions produced by the transport sector in an area in any given year. Data for the amount of CO2 emissions produced by the transport sector is published by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) by local authority. Local authority CO2 emissions forecasts within the transport sector are assumed to be a function of GVA (for example, more output means more transport use and therefore more emissions from transport). We have calculated the UK average level of transport emissions per unit of GVA by taking the total UK transport emissions from the DECC and PRIMES projections and dividing by UK total GVA from Cambridge Econometrics’ UK Regional Model. Then we applied this UK transport emissions per person ratio to the local authority GVA forecasts in the EEFM to estimate a pre-adjusted transport emissions forecast by local authority. Then we adjusted the forecasts based on scaling factors capturing the differences between our calculations for 2005-13 and the DECC data during the same years. Land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) emissions The total number of emissions produced via land use (e.g. deforestation, emissions from soils, etc.) in an area in any given year. Data for the amount of CO2 emissions produced by the LULUCF sector is published by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) by local authority. Local authority CO2 emissions forecasts within the LULUCF sector are assumed to be a function of land area i.e. more land gives more potential for deforestation, emissions from soils, etc. We have taken land area data, measured in hectares, from the UK Standard Area Measurements for 2007, and assumed that these values have not changed over time. Then we took UK LULUCF emissions data from DECC for 2005-13, and DEFRA forecasts for 2015 and 2020. For the years in between, we assumed a straight line and extrapolated annual data points and beyond 2020 we assumed a continuation of the trend. Then, using data from DECC for 2005-13, we projected the local authority LULUCF emissions by taking the previous year’s emissions, and adding the local authority share (calculated by taking each area’s share of total UK land area) of the net change in UK LULUCF emissions in each year. Total emissions The total number of CO2 emissions produced in an area in any given year. This is calculated as an aggregate of industry, commercial & energy emissions, domestic emissions, transport emissions and LULUCF emissions.
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4 Data sources
4.1 Labour market Employees in employment Description: Annual average employee job estimates
Data: 1991 – 1995 Annual Employment Survey (AES) 1995 – 1997 Annual Employment Survey rescaled to ABI 1998 – 2008 Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) 2008 – 2014 Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) Full-time/part-time split Description: Annual average full-time and part-time employee job estimates consistent with the employee job estimates above.
Data: 1991 - 1995 Annual Employment Survey (AES) 1995 - 1997 Annual Employment Survey rescaled to ABI 1998 - 2008 Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) 2008 – 2014 Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) Self-employment Description: Annual average self-employment job estimates
Data: ONS Workforce Jobs (WFJ) Census 2001 and 2011 for local area estimates Employees in Armed Forces Description: Annual average estimate of employees in UK regular Armed Forces stationed in the UK
Data: DASA, ONS Workforce Jobs Unemployment Description: Annual average claimant count unemployment – seasonally adjusted
Data: Local authorities: Nomis – Claimant count with rates and proportions Region: Nomis – Claimant count with rates and proportions Residence-based employment Description: Number of people resident in an area who are in employment (irrespective of where they work)
Data: Local authorities: Census of Population (2001 and 2011) Annual Population Survey (APS) Region: Census of Population (2001 and 2011) Annual Population Survey (APS)
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Total workplace employment (people) Description: the number of people who work in an area (irrespective of where they live)
Data: Local authorities: Census of Population Region: Census of Population
4.2 Commuting Description: The number of people that travel into, and out of, an area for work
Data: Local authorities: Constructed by Cambridge Econometrics, Census of Population Region: Constructed by Cambridge Econometrics, Census of Population
4.3 Demography Population – total Description: total population, all ages
Data: Local authorities: National Statistics, mid-year population estimates Region: National Statistics, mid-year population estimates Working age population Description: defined as all people aged 16-64
Data: Local authorities: National Statistics, mid-year population estimates Region: National Statistics, mid-year population estimates Young population Description: population aged 0-15
Data: Local authorities: National Statistics, mid-year population estimates Region: National Statistics, mid-year population estimates Elderly population Description: defined as all people aged 65+
Data: Local authorities: National Statistics, mid-year population estimates Region: National Statistics, mid-year population estimates Net migration and other changes Description: net migration flows to/from an area, including other changes (e.g. boundary adjustments, prisoner movements, boarding school pupils, etc)
Data: Local authorities: National Statistics, components of change Region: National Statistics, components of change Natural increase Description: the numbers of births minus deaths
Data: Local authorities: National Statistics, components of change
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Region: National Statistics, components of change
4.4 Output GVA Description: Gross Value Added in real 2011 prices
Data: Local authorities: Constructed by Cambridge Econometrics, Regional Accounts Region: National Statistics, Regional Accounts
4.5 Housing Demand for dwellings Description: Stock of dwellings.
Data: Local authorities: DCLG – dwelling stock estimates Number of households Description: Households
Data: Estimated by Cambridge Econometrics
4.6 Carbon emissions Industry, commercial & energy emissions Description: CO2 emissions from the industry, commercial & energy sectors
Data: Local authorities: DECC – Full local CO2 emissions estimates Domestic emissions Description: CO2 emissions from the domestic sector
Data: Local authorities: DECC – Full local CO2 emissions estimates Transport emissions Description: CO2 emissions from the transport sector
Data: Local authorities: DECC – Full local CO2 emissions estimates LULUCF emissions
Description: CO2 emissions from the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector
Data: Local authorities: DECC – Full local CO2 emissions estimates Total emissions Description: Total CO2 emissions
Data: Local authorities: DECC – Full local CO2 emissions estimates
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5 Outliers and data validity
Official data (e.g. BRES employment data) are incorporated unchanged into the EEFM, as the crucial starting point upon which local economic data are founded. Data is then adjusted to be consistent with key regional and national series which offer more timely information around recent economic trends. This process allows Model users to reference key variables at the published source, however as data are adjusted this means that users cannot reference data directly, although the broad levels will remain consistent with the published source. However, in some cases the data can be anomalous - so-called “outliers.” This could be because of errors in measuring or recording it. Or perhaps the data is “true” but reflects an unusual circumstance and so does not accurately represent the local situation or local trends. Because of the smaller numbers of observations, data-reporting errors or unusual “outlier” values can be a particular problem at more detailed levels of analysis - for example, when looking at individual sectors in individual local authorities. This section explores these issues in respect of the BRES (note: prior to 2008, ABI data is used and subject to similar levels of volatility), and outlines Cambridge Econometrics’ approach to BRES data outliers. In summary, this is to keep them unchanged within the EEFM spreadsheets, but to adjust them when making forecasts such that the first year of a forecast would incorporate a correction for an outlier value in the BRES data in a previous year.
5.1 BRES outliers The latest published BRES data is for 2014 and was released in September 2015. Since BRES data is collected by survey whereby individuals/firms complete the questionnaires, there can sometimes be significant discontinuities in the sector data at local level from year to year. Such discontinuities may - or may not - reflect real events. Consider the effects on the data series of an incomplete return from a firm - or an error interpreting or recording it - in one year preceded (or followed) by a complete or correct return in the previous (or subsequent) year. Any recorded change in employees associated with this would be fictitious, and any trend extrapolated from it into the future would be misleading. But equally, a dramatic change could reflect the opening, expansion, contraction or closure of a major business in an area (with potential longer-term effects on other local businesses). If a discontinuity occurred in say 2008, but was corrected in 2009, producing a “spike” in the time-series data, it can essentially be ignored as it will not affect the forecasting process. Equally, if it were confirmed the following year, it would suggest a ‘real’ change in the local economy has indeed taken place. In the meantime, local authorities’ input is vital to identify whether discontinuities in the data reflect ‘real’ events or not. Focussing on the 2 digit SIC 2007 sectors for employee jobs at local authority level, we identified discontinuities showing more than a 10% change in number of employees in a single year where this change involved more
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than 1,000 employees. These outliers were sent to appropriate local authority representatives for their reaction and input. Cambridge Econometrics’ response to this consultation was as follows: where we were satisfied that a discontinuity genuinely reflected the opening or closure of a firm, or major expansion or contraction, we accepted the change as the correct starting point for the EEFM forecasts. But if we were given evidence by consultees that there was an error in the BRES data or that an outlier gave a misleading picture of the local situation in some way, we corrected for the discontinuity in the first year of the forecast. (In the absence of any information about a discontinuity, we accepted it, in line with our working principle outlined above.) Table 5.1 sets out those local authorities and sectors where adjustments were made to 2014 BRES data, showing the size and direction of the correction. Table 5.1 Adjustments made to 2014 BRES data used in setting forecasts
Local authority Sector Correction Braintree Education Up by approximately 900 employee jobs Breckland Employment activities Down by approximately 1,200 employee jobs Broadland Finance Up by approximately 1,300 employee jobs Harlow Business services Down by approximately 1,900 employee jobs Ipswich Education Up by approximately 1,100 employee jobs Norwich Employment activities Down by approximately 400 employee jobs Norwich Business services Up by approximately 2,900 employee jobs St Albans Business services Down by approximately 1,200 employee jobs St Edmundsbury Business services Down by approximately 5,800 employee jobs
Notes: The amount of jobs by which a sector has been adjusted does not necessarily reflect the size of the observed anomaly in the BRES data, as the 2014 adjusted value also includes an element of the trend employee growth that would have occurred if the correction had not been made.
5.2 Data checking and validity procedures A vital foundation of any economic modelling and forecasting work is ensuring that data is correctly sourced and accurately fed into the model. Cambridge Econometrics has a policy of meticulously summing checking variables and carrying out visual checks throughout the process of updating the EEFM to ensure that the data is fully internally consistent. Data is entered electronically from original official sources and is checked automatically to make sure identities are maintained. It is also checked visually to assess whether trends look plausible and magnitudes are correct. There are a number of key identities in the EEFM which must hold for the Model to be fully realised, and we have a spreadsheet within it designed specifically to check that this is the case. These identities are: Employee jobs by sector = total employee jobs Self-employed jobs by sector = total self-employed jobs Employment by sector = total employment All indicators in each local authority = Eastern totals (note that this does not apply to productivity and unemployment/resident employment rates)
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Total employment = employee jobs + self-employed jobs + HM Armed Forces Total population = working age population + young population + elderly population Change in population = net migration + natural increase People-based employment = net commuting + resident-based employment Labour force = employment + unemployment
There are two principal methods that we apply to our models to ensure variables add up correctly over the forecast period: 1 Scaling: it is often the case that model input or output variables which are theoretically identical actually have different values. This is usually due to errors or incompleteness in the underlying data or methodological differences in gathering them. Scaling is the process by which two such variables are made equal by raising one to the value of the other, and the procedure can either be multiplicative or additive. Additive scaling takes the difference between the variables and adds it pro rata to the components of the lower of the two (for example, to local authority values when the total of these is less than a regional value to which it should theoretically be equal). Multiplicative scaling takes the ratio of the “target” total to the actual total, and multiplies each component of the actual total by that ratio. In this way, the actual total is shifted upwards (or downwards) to meet a target total which it should theoretically equal. 2 Residual: this procedure is used when the value of one component (or a small number of them) can be approximately deduced from the known values of other components and a known total. For example, estimating full time jobs as the residual between total jobs and part time jobs.
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6 Employment land use methodology
This chapter outlines our methodology for calculating employment land use forecasts under the 2016 update of the East of England Forecasting Model (EEFM).
6.1 Key outputs The summary outputs under the employment land module for EEFM 2016 for the East of England and each district include: Industrial floorspace (B1c/B2), thousands m² Warehouse floorspace (B8), thousands m² Office floorspace (B1a/b), thousands m²
Detailed outputs including the variables above split by sector are available on the website.
6.2 Measure of employment The employment forecasts used in the calculation to estimate employment land requirements are: Jobs-based Workplace-based Full-time equivalents (estimated as the number of full-time employed, plus 75% of the number of part-time employed)
6.3 Employment densities The employment densities used within the EEFM are based on the Employment Densities Guide, published in 20101, which provides guidelines on employment densities by use class. The guide presents densities on a range of different floorspace measures: gross external area (GEA), gross internal area (GIA) or net internal area (NIA). Therefore, it has been necessary to convert all employment densities to the same measure - GIA. Table 6.1 Employment densities by use, 2010 guide
Use Use Use Type Area per Floor Area Comment on class FTE (m²) Basis potential variation
Industrial B2 General 36 GIA Range of 18-60 m² Industrial B1 (c) Light Industry 47 NIA (Business Park) Warehouse & B8 General 70 GEA Range of 25-115 m² Distribution Warehouse & B8 Large Scale and High 80 GEA Distribution Bay Warehousing
1 Employment Densities Guide, Homes & Communities Agency, 2010 28 East of England Forecasting Model: Technical Report
Office B1 (a) General Office 12 NIA Office B1 (a) Call Centres 8 NIA Office B1 (a) IT/Data Centres 47 NIA Office B1 (a) Business Park 10 NIA Office B1 (a) Serviced Office 10 NIA
The following employment densities have been adopted for Industry and Warehousing, based on the general use types. The GEA for warehousing has been converted to GIA by using the CLG’s Regional Spatial Strategy and Local Development Framework Core Output Indicators – Update 2/2008 guidance2 which assumes a 3.75% difference. For office use, the HCA guidance states that the GIA is typically 15-20% higher than net internal space. Using this figure this provides an employment density range for general office of 13.8 m² - 14.4 m². Table 6.2 Employment densities – industry, warehousing and office (GIA)
Use Use type Density: Notes: Area per FTE (m²) Industry B1c/B2 36 Uses General Industry Warehousing B8 67 Uses General Warehousing Offices B1 14 (based on the Uses General Office average of the 13.8- 14.4 range)
For detailed office uses the same process has been followed for call centres, business parks and serviced office whilst office headquarters are assumed to follow the general employment land density. As the guidance does not provide densities for R&D, science parks and small businesses uses these are assumed to follow the original densities from the 2001 guide. An alternative could be to use the B1c density, given the earlier employment land density guide showed densities for these uses similar to light industry. However, this would result in an overall density of around 60m², which seems very high when compared to the 2001 densities and is very close to the warehousing density. Overall the following employment densities for detailed office use are used. Table 6.3 Employment densities detailed office use
Use Sub-use Density: Notes: Area per FTE (m²) Office B1b use split: Based on 2001 density Science park & Small 32 guide business units High tech R&D 29 B1a split: Based on NIA densities General office 14 adjusted to GIA (average Serviced business centre & 13 range of 15-20%) Business park Call centre 10
2 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/employment-densities-guide 29 East of England Forecasting Model: Technical Report
6.4 Allocating employment sectors to use classes In order to forecast employment land it is necessary to convert the employment sector forecasts into office, warehousing and industrial uses. As the model provides employment sector forecasts by 31 sectors in total (comprising one or several 2 digit SIC codes) we have allocated each sector across the use classes in differing proportions. This analysis has been largely based on reviewing each SIC code in detail and judging the overall proportion that could be expected to be in industry, warehousing or office uses based on our knowledge of the East of England’s economy. This is not an exact science as the classification of economic activities does not always lend itself to a straightforward allocation. The EEFM sectors are mapped to use classes in differing proportions, as outlined in Table 6.4. Those sectors marked with a * need careful consideration given the nature of the activities undertaken, namely: Waste and remediation - we have allocated 97% of these activities to industry use to capture waste treatment activities (based on employee share in BRES by detailed SIC codes). Construction - we have not included construction in B-use, however, we are aware that often this is classified as industry use. Wholesale trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles - we have allocated 75% of this sector to warehousing based on the share of wholesale warehousing activities in the BRES numbers. The remaining 25% associated with the repair of motor vehicles has been allocated to industry. Land transport - we have allocated 39% of this sector to warehousing based on the share of warehousing and support activities for transportation in the employee BRES numbers. Professional services - we have allocated 96% of this sector to offices. We have excluded veterinary activities based on the share of employees in the BRES numbers. Business services - we have allocated 93% of this sector to offices. We have excluded travel agency, tour operator and other reservation services based on the share of employees in the BRES numbers. Employment activities - given that this sector includes temporary workers that may work in any industry we have allocated employment based on the weighted shares of all the other sectors’ allocations to industry, warehousing and offices. Publishing & broadcasting activities - we have allocated all publishing activity to industry. For motion picture, video and television programme production, sound recording and music publishing activities which captures the production side of film and TV we have assigned 80% to warehousing given the large scale production sets often required and 20% to office use. For programming and broadcasting activities which incorporates broadcasting activities which are most likely to be studio based we have assigned 80% of these activities to office use and 20% to warehousing use. The proportions are then scaled depending on the relative employment shares in the BRES data.
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Telecoms - we have allocated 80% of telecoms to warehousing and the remaining 20% to offices. Public administration - we have allocated 61% of this sector to offices to take account of the share of general public administration activities; regulation of the activities of providing health care, education, cultural services and other social services, excluding social security; regulation of and contribution to more efficient operation of businesses; and foreign affairs. We have excluded defence activities; justice and judicial activities; public order and safety activities; fire service activities; and compulsory social security activities. The shares are based on the BRES data.
We would appreciate feedback on these sectors or any others, bearing in mind that a simple calculation is applied across the East of England. Densities and allocations are static across the decades in the spreadsheets, as we have made no assumptions about the impacts of changing working practices. We have applied assumptions across the whole region, rather than reflecting any local circumstances. An interactive version of the spreadsheets is available so that users can apply their own assumptions to reflect any specific local circumstances. Please see the Cambridgeshire Insight website for more information. Table 6.4 Allocation of employment sectors by use class, SIC07
SIC code SIC description Industry Warehousing Office B1c/B2 B8 B1 01-03 Agriculture 05-09 Mining and quarrying 10-12 Food manufacturing 100% 13-18, 31- General manufacturing 100% 33 19-23 excl Chemicals excl. 100% 21 pharmaceuticals 21 Pharmaceuticals 100% 24-25 Metals manufacturing 100% 28-30 Transport equipment, 100% machinery & equipment 26-27 Electronics 100% 35-37 Utilities 38-39* Waste and remediation 97% 41-43* Construction 45-46* Wholesale 25% 75% 47 Retail 49, 52-53* Land transport 39% 50-51 Water and air transport 55-56 Hotels and restaurants 58-60* Publishing and broadcasting 66% 23% 11% 61* Telecoms 80% 20% 62-63 Computer related activity 100% 64-66 Finance 100% 68 Real estate 100%
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69-75 excl Professional services 96% 72* 72 Research & development 100% 77-82 excl Business services 93% 78* 78* Employment activities 12% 8% 22% 84* Public administration 61% 85 Education 86-88 Health and care 90-93 Arts and entertainment 94-99 Other services
6.5 Detailed office uses The sectors with some element of office use have also been assigned into the more detailed breakdown of office uses as shown in Table 6.5 below. Again, we would appreciate any feedback on these allocations. Table 6.5 Allocation of office employment sectors by detailed office use classes, SIC07
SIC code SIC description Offices Split by: B1 B1b B1b B1a B1a B1a units business Small Science Park & Tech/R&D General Office Park Centre & Business Serviced Business CentreCall
58-60 Publishing and 11% 0% 0% 11% 0% 0% broadcasting 61 Telecoms 20% 0% 0% 20% 0% 0% 62-63 Computer related activity 100% 0% 0% 30% 60% 10% 64-66 Finance 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 68 Real estate 100% 0% 0% 90% 10% 0% 69-75 excl Professional services 96% 7% 7% 79% 2% 1% 72 72 Research & development 100% 20% 60% 10% 10% 0% 77-82 excl Business services 93% 71% 1% 9% 4% 9% 78 78 Employment activities 22% 5% 1% 13% 2% 1% 84 Public administration 61% 0% 0% 61% 0% 0%
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Technical Report September Cambridge Econometrics [email protected] 2016 Cambridge, UK www.camecon.com
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Appendix 9: Definition of B Class Sectors
The method used for re-categorising the employment forecasts by sector into B-Class uses is summarised below.
Apportionment of B Class Sectors to Land Uses
Proportion of Jobs by Use Class Sector B1 office B2 industrial B8 warehousing Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Non B-Class Extraction & Mining Non B-Class Food, Drink & Tobacco 0% 100% 0% Textiles & Clothing 0% 100% 0% Wood & Paper 0% 100% 0% Printing and Recorded Media 0% 100% 0% Fuel Refining 0% 100% 0% Chemicals 0% 100% 0% Pharmaceuticals 0% 100% 0% Non-Metallic Products 0% 100% 0% Metal Products 0% 100% 0% Computer & Electronic Products 0% 100% 0% Machinery & Equipment 0% 100% 0% Transport Equipment 0% 100% 0% Other Manufacturing 0% 100% 0% Utilities 30% Construction of Buildings Non B-Class Civil Engineering Non B-Class Specialised Construction Activities 0% 45% 0% Wholesale 0% 20% 80% Retail Non B-Class Accommodation & Food Services Non B-Class Land Transport, Storage & Post 0% 0% 89% Air & Water Transport Non B-Class Recreation Non B-Class Media Activities 100% 0% 0% Telecoms 100% 0% 0% Computing & Information Services 100% 0% 0% Finance 100% 0% 0% Insurance & Pensions 100% 0% 0% Real Estate 100% 0% 0% Professional Services 100% 0% 0% Administrative & Supportive 3% 0% 0% Services Other Private Services Non B-Class Public Administration & Defence 10% 0% 0% Education Non B-Class Health Non B-Class Residential Care & Social Work Non B-Class
Source: EEFM / Lichfields analysis
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St Edmundsbury Employment Land Review : Final Report
Appendix 10: EEFM Baseline Forecasts
Workforce Jobs EEFM Sector Change % Change 2011 2031 2011-2031 2011-2031 Agriculture 817 680 -137 -16.8 Mining and Quarrying 8 5 -3 -35.9 Food Manufacturing 2,885 1,398 -1,487 -51.6 General Manufacturing 1,823 1,495 -328 -18.0 Chemicals Manufacturing 933 990 56 6.0 Pharma Manufacturing 327 7 -320 -97.9 Metals Manufacturing 496 422 -74 -14.9 Transport Manufacturing 784 820 36 4.6 Electronics Manufacturing 932 364 -569 -61.0 Utilities 828 455 -372 -45.0 Waste and remediation 319 237 -82 -25.6 Construction 3,559 3,813 254 7.1 Wholesale 4,437 4,704 267 6.0 Retail 6,395 7,021 626 9.8 Land Transport 2,879 2,461 -417 -14.5 Water and air transport 57 66 8 14.2 Hotels and restaurants 3,053 5,721 2,668 87.4 Publishing and broadcasting 255 192 -63 -24.7 Telecoms 94 140 46 48.7 Computer related activity 533 779 245 45.9 Finance 1,142 1,021 -121 -10.6 Real Estate 1,192 2,300 1,108 92.9 Professional services 3,456 4,615 1,159 33.5 R+D 55 123 68 125.5 Business services 3,700 9,210 5,510 148.9 Employment activities 739 904 165 22.3 Public Administration incl land 4,014 4,280 266 6.6 forces Education 4,508 4,935 427 9.5 Health and care 8,713 11,867 3,153 36.2 Arts and entertainment 1,517 1,456 -61 -4.0 Other services 1,672 1,321 -351 -21.0 Total (rounded) 62,130 73,810 11,680 18.8
Source: EEFM 2016
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