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Passenger Vehicle Update 6 June 2013 India | Automobiles | Sector Update Passenger Vehicle Update Ambrish Mishra [email protected] Amaze succeeds in beating slowdown blues Tel: (91 22) 66303019 Himanshu Sharma [email protected] FY14 has started on a challenging note for the Indian passenger car industry Tel: (91 22) 66303028 with two of the largest players, Maruti/Hyundai registering 6%/4% domestic Riddhi Kothari volume decline in the first two months. Meanwhile, despite adverse demand [email protected] environment, Honda Cars India managed to grow volumes by 14% during the Tel: (91 22) 66303078 same time, helped by strong response for its first compact sedan “Amaze” (also Honda‟s first diesel offering in India). As highlighted in our earlier note Domestic volume performance (Is Honda back in the game with „Amaze‟? dated 11 Apr‟13), Amaze is very well received, though Maruti Dzire volumes have seen little impact so far. We Honda Amaze volumes (units) revisited Honda dealerships to assess few key variables – a) trend in 8 customer response to Amaze since launch, b) cannibalization of other Honda 6 6 models (if any), c) shift in fuel mix, and d) change in waiting period. Key 5 4 takeaways are: 3 2 Units Units in '000 Amaze holding on to initial excitement, price hiked by up to `8,000: 0 Despite challenging macro and subdued PV demand, Amaze has done Apr-13 Mar-13 remarkably well for Honda, registering volumes of 4,852/6,036 for May-13 Apr‟13/May ‟13. Further, our recent dealer visits indicated that given the response and order backlog, Amaze performance would remain strong going Honda Brio volumes (units) forward. Honda recently announced price hike of 3,000-8,000 for Amaze, ` 6 further reiterating its confidence in the product. Although, dealers indicated 4 that run-away success of Amaze has led to some cannibalization of Brio. 4 000 2 2 2 Order flow strong, waiting period increases to 5-6 months: Steady order Units Units in ' inflow for Amaze has resulted in substantial waiting list, especially for 0 gasoline variants. While the waiting period for diesel variants has come down Apr-13 Mar-13 marginally from 10-12 weeks in April (at the time of launch) to c. 8-10 weeks May-13 now, waiting period for gasoline variants has increased substantially from c.6 weeks to c.16-24 weeks. Our interaction indicated that sudden increase has Maruti Dzire volumes (units) surprised certain dealers; while in some cases this sudden spike has led to 22 20 cancellations. 20 19 000 18 17 As expected, cheaper petrol prices fuels shift in favor of gasoline variants: Recent cut in petrol prices along with hike in diesel prices has led 16 Units Units in ' recovery in demand for gasoline vehicles. Against pre-launch estimation of 14 35:65 mix between gasoline:diesel, the current mix stands at c.45:55. This Apr-13 Mar-13 sudden increase in demand for petrol vehicles along with higher planned May-13 production of diesel variants has spiked the waiting period for petrol cars as highlighted earlier. Interestingly, dealers indicated that the shift in favor of Toyota Etios volumes (units) 6 petrol was quicker and more substantial in urban centers like Mumbai 5 compared tier II cities like Aurangabad. 4 3 2 Maruti Suzuki Dzire still holding up: While Amaze volumes have ramped up 2 well in last two months, Maruti Dzire volumes (current market leader) have in '000 Units shown little weakness (see exhibit 1). While Maruti Dzire volumes can come 0 under pressure due to the current demand sluggishness, we do not expect Apr-13 Mar-13 Amaze to have significant impact on Dzire volumes given that a) Amaze will May-13 attract buyers from other segment as well (like premium hatchbacks, entry Source: Media reports, JM Financial level sedans), and b) Honda‟s capacity constraints till the new plant comes on stream in CY14. JM Financial Institutional Securities Private Limited Maruti Dzire volumes (units) Toyota Etios volumes (units) 25,000 6,000 20,000 5,000 4,000 15,000 3,000 10,000 2,000 5,000 1,000 0 0 Jul-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Jun-12 Jan-13 Mar-12 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Aug-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Jun-12 May-12 May-13 Mar-12 Feb-13 Mar-13 Nov-12 Dec-12 Sep-12 Aug-12 May-12 May-13 Passenger Vehicle Update Passenger Vehicle Limited Private Securities Institutional Financial JM Source: Exhibit Source: Exhibit Tata Indigo volumes (units) Nissan Sunny volumes (units) Mediareports Mediareports 10,000 5,000 2. 1. Volume performance 8,000 Industry a volume 4,000 Honda Brio Honda Domestic Domestic Maruti Dzire Dzire Maruti , SIAM, , , 6,000 JM 3,000 Financial Tata Indigo Tata 4,000 JM 2,000 Financial c – 2,000 performance volume ar 1,000 Facing Facing – 0 0 strong on Holding nd market share trends share nd market – No respite No cannibalization Jul-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Apr-12 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Jun-12 Jan-13 Jun-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-12 Feb-13 Mar-13 Dec-12 Nov-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 May-12 May-13 May-12 May-13 Honda Brio volumes (units) Maruti Swift volumes (units) 7,000 25,000 6,000 20,000 ? 5,000 15,000 4,000 3,000 10,000 2,000 5,000 1,000 0 0 Maruti Swift Maruti Jul-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Jun-12 Jan-13 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Mar-12 Feb-13 Mar-13 Jun-12 Jan-13 Nov-12 Dec-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Mar-12 Mar-13 May-12 May-13 Aug-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 May-12 May-13 Nissan Sunny Nissan Toyota Etios Etios Toyota – Feeling the pinch pinch the Feeling Market share trends share Market – – Unable to sustain the good start thegood to sustain Unable Cars Volume (units) growth % (RHS) MSIL Hyundai TTMT Other Toyota Honda Competition impacts volumes impacts Competition 250 30% 100 20% 17 14 16 18 18 18 13 16 17 20 19 17 200 17 19 15 15 80 19 5 24 6 6 9 5 8 10 9 11 14 10% 11 14 11 15 13 – 15 13 21 150 21 20 c 19 000 60 15 22 19 21 ompetition or slowdown or ompetition 19 20 21 20 17 17 20 0% 18 17 19 233 100 213 40 Units in ' in Units 198 24 181 173 172 172 -10% 168 163 161 159 158 158 156 151 143 141 53 51 51 51 49 47 46 46 118 45 44 44 44 43 43 42 50 42 -20% 20 40 27 0 -30% 0 Jul-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Jan-12 Jun-12 Jan-13 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Feb-12 Mar-12 Feb-13 Mar-13 Jan-12 Jun-12 Jan-13 Nov-11 Dec-11 Nov-12 Dec-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Mar-12 Mar-13 Feb-12 Feb-13 May-12 Nov-11 Dec-11 Aug-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 May-12 6 June 2013 June6 2013 Page ? 2 Passenger Vehicle Update 6 June 2013 JM Financial Institutional Securities Private Limited Member, BSE Limited and National Stock Exchange of India Limited SEBI Registration Nos.: BSE - INB011296630 & INF011296630, NSE - INB231296634 & INF231296634 Registered Office: 141, Maker Chambers III, Nariman Point, Mumbai - 400 021, India Corporate Office: 51, Maker Chambers III, Nariman Point, Mumbai - 400 021, India Board: +9122 6630 3030 | Fax: +91 22 6747 1825 | Email: [email protected] | www.jmfinancial.in Analyst Certification The research analysts, with respect to each issuer and its securities covered by them in this research report, certify that: All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect his or her or their personal views about all of the issuers and their securities; and No part of his or her or their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Analyst(s) holding in the Stock: (Nil) Disclosures This research report has been prepared by JM Financial Institutional Securities Private Limited (JM Financial Institutional Securities) to provide information about the company(ies) and sector(s), if any, covered in the report and may be distributed by it and/or its affiliated company(ies) solely for the purpose of information of the select recipient of this report. This report and/or any part thereof, may not be duplicated in any form and/or reproduced or redistributed without the prior written consent of JM Financial Institutional Securities. This report has been prepared independent of the companies covered herein. JM Financial Institutional Securities and its affiliated companies are part of a multi-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, brokerage and financing group. JM Financial Institutional Securities and/or its affiliated company(ies) might have provided or may provide services in respect of managing offerings of securities, corporate finance, investment banking, mergers & acquisitions, financing or any other advisory services to the company(ies) covered herein. JM Financial Institutional Securities and/or its affiliated company(ies) might have received or may receive compensation from the company(ies) mentioned in this report for rendering any of the above services. Research analysts and sales persons of JM Financial Institutional Securities may provide important inputs to its affiliated company(ies) associated with it.
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