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The Chicago Hotel Market: History and Forecast March 2015

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The Chicago Hotel Market: History and Forecast March 2015 The Chicago Hotel Market: History and Forecast March 2015 The 2nd Tremont, 3rd Tremont, The 3rd Tremont (slightly on fire), and 4th Tremont Original Palmer House, Dining Room, After the Fire Rebuilt Hotel, Barber Shop Grand Pacific, Lobby, Buffet, Sherman House, Advertisements, Final expansion La Salle Hotel, Hangar Room, Blue Fountain Room, Palm Room Richard J Dailey 1976 election results in the grand ballroom, Hotel Lobby, Louis XVI Dining Room Morrison Hotel, Place in skyline on as seen from lake, Lobby, Cameo ballroom, Boston Oyster House, Terrace Garden Windermere, Windermere expansion, and Guyon Hotels, Edgewater Beach Hotel and Postcards The Bismarck Hotel, Bavaria Bier Stube, Walnut Room, Marigold Room, Original Restaurant and Bar Drake, Allerton and Knickerbocker, Stevens 1920’s Chicago had as many rooms as it does now, asitdoesnow, rooms had as many Chicago 1920’s $100 $120 $140 $60 $80 $20 $40 though many closed by the 1960’s. From then, then, From the1960’s. closedby though many $- 1960 new hotels were built, built, pushing up rates. were hotels new 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 ADR 1976 1978 Historic Performance Historic 1980 1982 RevPAR 1984 1986 1988 1990 Occupancy 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% peak andpeak during periods. recessionary $14 $16 $18 $20 $22 $10 $12 $8 occupancies have decreased both at at both decreased have occupancies 1960 rooms, in ofanincrease Because 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 Performance Adjusted Inflation Historic 1974 1976 In.ADR Adj 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 In.RevPAR Adj 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Occupancy 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% What’s Changed? • Chicago itself is doing as well as it ever has in occupancy. Rate is getting better. • There are over 109,000 rooms in the metro area. An extra 10,000 rooms would be an increase of only 9% over 5 years. • Almost all the proposed hotels are in the Chicago, CBD which only has 39,000 rooms, meaning it would be a 28% increase in downtown rooms! • Historically, Chicago sent over 500,000 rooms into the suburbs per year, or around 120 days. • Now it’s less than 100,000, or 10-20 days. What’s Changed? • We are universally regarded as in the late stages of recovery, but we are just now getting back to the 2008 ADR performance. • The suburbs are lagging because of the loss of city-wide overflow. As an example DuPage County properties were in the low 70’s for years. It is not going to hit 70% any time soon. • Developers continue to try to build in Chicago, with a potential 28% increase in supply. • With so many new hotels, this trend is likely to continue in perpetuity. Why the Growth? • Reported strong performance especially in selective months in ADR, occupancy and RevPAR. • Reported growth percentages in supply based on metro area vs. downtown where the activity was centered. • Available financing • Aggressive roll-out of new brands and focus on Boutique market by developers Changes in the Traveler • People now stay where they want to. – Corporations are more flexible – There are way more rooms to choose from – The consumer is more informed • Thanks primarily to the internet • There are more travelers – Convention has stayed the same, but they’re a smaller percent (used to be 60%, now 45%). People don’t always stay in the HQ hotel anymore. – Leisure is a larger percentage (used to be 10% or less, now it’s 15% and growing) Regional Markets Why do we think Chicago is going to lose occupancy? • It’s all room count. Room Count Vs. Occupancy 2008-2018 46,000 100% Rooms Occupancy 44,000 95% 90% 42,000 85% 40,000 80% 38,000 75% 36,000 70% 65% 34,000 60% 32,000 55% 30,000 50% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 • We’re going to add 20% more rooms to the supply in the next 5 years. • Demand is still going up, but not fast enough. Change in rooms by sector: Midrange Upscale Luxury Economy Budget 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Change in rooms by sector: Midrange Upscale Luxury Economy Budget 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 • The Luxury sector was the fastest growing, while midrange and upscale remained flat. – Now, upscale and midrange are back. • We’ve seen a number of projects stall in the last year, so the pipeline is slightly less scary. 2002 Mix 2012 Mix 2017 Mix Budget Budget 7% Budget 15% 16% Midrange Economy Midrang Midrang 24% 13% e e 27% 24% Economy Economy 13% 12% Upscale Upscale Luxury Upscale 18% 20% 33% 20% Luxury Luxury 28% 30% Chicago Forecast • 2014 was 0.4 points above 2013 and $7 higher. Chicago Historic Performance $250 ADR RevPAR Occupancy 80% 70% $200 60% $150 50% 40% $100 30% 20% $50 10% $0 0% • Luxury occupancy actually decreased slightly, while upscale increased. City Vs. MSA • Chicago greatly outperforms Suburbs in all categories 80% $200 Chicago MSA 75% $150 MSA Occ ADR RevPAR Rooms 70% 2014 69.3% $131.36 $91.07 109627 $100 2015 69.1% $136.67 $94.43 111011 2016 68.1% $140.90 $96.01 114515 $50 65% 2017 67.8% $145.47 $98.68 117066 $0 60% CBD Occ ADR RevPAR Rooms 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 75.68% $198.77 $ 150.42 37049 80% 2015 $ 148.12 39547 Chicago CBD 73.70% $200.98 $200 2016 70.50% $ 146.71 43800 $208.10 75% 2017 71.50% $213.30 $ 152.51 44457 $150 70% $100 $50 65% $0 60% 2014 2015 2016 2017 Weekly data, Chicago • Tuesday is the highest rate day, Saturday is the highest occupancy day. – Tuesday is usually corporate and group, at full rack and is less price conscious. – Weekends are usually packaged rates and discounts. – This change happened about 5 years ago during the recession. Weekly data, Metro • Tuesday is the highest Occ & Rate, Saturday frequently sees the second highest Occupancy, but lower rate. – Tuesday is usually corporate and group, at full rack and is less price conscious. – Weekends are usually packaged rates and discounts. Resorts and conference facilities receive more benefit, but the boost affects all properties. – Unlike Chicago, the weekend business tends to be regarded as secondary, but is still fairly important. Monthly Data • Historically consistent. May-October are the busy months. November-April are slow. Chicago CBD Market Monthly 2011 - 2014 ADR RevPAR Occ $300 100% 90% $250 80% 70% $200 60% $150 50% 40% $100 30% 20% $50 10% $0 0% Jan March May July Sept Nov Jan March May July Sept Nov Jan March May July Sept Nov Jan March May July Sept Nov Recent Sales Price in Hotel Name/ Year Built/ # mil. / Date Buyer Units CPR Pending Intercontinental Chicago O'Hare 2008 $120 Loews Hotels 556 units $215,827 Pending Homewood Suites 1999 $53 ARC Hospitality Trust 233 units $226,156 May'14 Howard Johnson Inn Chicago Downtown 1968 $15 MAC Management Co JV Magellan Development Group JV 71 units $214,789 Feb'14 Warwick Allerton Hotel 1923 $82 Warwick Int'l Hotels 443 units $184,989 Feb'14 Hotel Burnham 1895 $35 Lone Star Funds 122 units $288,525 Jan'14 Drake Hotel (Land Only) 1920 $150 Lodging Capital Partners JV Dec'13 Belden Stratford 1923 $87 Prudential RE Investors 297 units $292,088 Nov'13 Hotel Monaco Chicago 1912 $56 Inland American REIT 192 units $291,667 Oct'13 Tokyo Hotel* 1928 $14 Sydell Group Ltd 190 units $71,053 Sep'13 Hotel Lincoln 1928 $49 Walton Street CapitalJV 184 units $263,587 Aug'13 Hotel Blake (Bulk Condo)* 1986 $5 Bluegreen Corp 12 units* $407,625 Average CPR: $247,204 New, U C and Proposed Hotels Opened Early Planning Advancing List of Hotel development projects as of March 12, 2015 Ted Mandigo TR Mandigo & Co 312 671-9442 Project Location Rooms Opening Date Recently Completed MPEA Hyatt Expansion McCormick Place 461 Jul-13 Langham IBM Building 361 Jul-13 White Lodging Grand and Illinois Fairfield Inn 180 Sep-13 Hyatt Place 212 Jul-13 Aloft 274 Sep-13 Godfrey Dearborn 221 Mar-14 Open! SoHo Hotel Green Street 40 14-Mar Grand opening June 30 Hyatt Place Hyde Park 131 Jul-14 Open Re-opened/Repositioned 1,880 Hotel Lincoln Sutton Place Now Thompson Hotel Amalfi Now Kinzie Hotel Doubletree/Hyatt Conversion to hotel/condominium residential Now Chicago Hotel Crowne Plaza Mich. Ave. Now Hampton Inn/Homewood Suites 348 rooms 48 Vacation Villas Under Construction Dropped Joie de Vivre CAA 240 Sep-14 Upscale Indigo American Bank 156 2016 Ups Virgin Atlantic Republic Bank 250 2015 Upper Loews Hotel Illinois 400 Mar-15 Lux 1,046 Proposed Hampton CAC Building 143 2015 Mid John Murphy-$25.5 Million Loan $9.5 M Purchase of building Hyatt Centric 100 W. Monroe 257 2015 upscale Already Marketing Rooms Cedar Hotel Viagra Triangle 160 2016 Luxury Pending Zoning /Viceroy LBGT Hotel 3343 Halsted 112 1,037 2016 Mid Challenges with design has delayed development Hilton Garden Adj. CAC 191 2016 Mid Magna Hospitality Group $5 M for site Hyatt Place 28 N. Franklin 206 2016 Mid Hyatt Place Reschke Project/Now OTO Development Coyote Building Wicker Park 130 2016 mid U/C Kim Kuong Chong 2010 S. Archer 60 2016 Mid Zoning Application 7/30/2014 Jupiter Realty 108 N. Jefferson 338 2016 Mid 128 Homewood/210 Hampton Crains Oxford 452 1,263 2016 upper upscale Building/LondonHouse Development Residence Inn 11 S.
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