DRUG TRIAL U.K. CONTROVERSY INDIA & CHINA ENVIRONMENT LOCUSTS FDexamethasoneRO breakthrough 8 NTLINELine of confrontation 67 Swarm before the storm 89

JULY 3, 2020 I NDIA’S NATIONAL MAGAZINE HTTPS://FRONTLINE.THEHINDU.COM RS.125 In a blind alley The COVID-19 curve keeps rising sharply despite a series of lockdowns and the government, refusing to learn from international experience, keeps the scientific community out of decision-making and dishes out false data

V OLUME 37 NUMBER 13 JUNE 20-JULY 03, 2020 ISSN 0970-1710 HTTPS://FRONTLINE.THEHINDU.COM

COVER STORY Odisha: A new approach 60 Global scene: COVID cover-up Soaring numbers 62 The Union government presents data that seek more to hide the Nightmare in Brazil 65 reality about the pandemic than to reveal it and keeps the scientific INDIA & CHINA community out of the decision-making process. 4

Line of conflict 67

POLITICS Crisis of leadership 72

INDIA & NEPAL Relationship on test 7

JAMMU & KASHMIR Diaspora takes up fight 79

ENVIRONMENT

COVER STORY Tamil Nadu: Dying young 38 Bihar & Jharkhand: Contrasting tales 40 Gujarat: Unable to cope 42 Madhya Pradesh: Rural spread 44 Locust menace: Swarm West Bengal: before the storm 89 Politics amid pandemic 46 The locust that Haryana: Dangerous drop 48 became extinct 92 Drug trial brings hope 8 Exploitation of children a Karnataka: Rising trend 50 Vaccine scenarios 11 serious concern 27 Andhra Pradesh: BOOKS 82 COVID strategy: STATES Testing regime 52 The numbers game 14 Delhi: In a mess 30 Telangana: Little headway in Maharashtra: Peaking chaos 54 understanding the virus 18 Figures in dispute 32 Kerala: ILO report on COVID’s Uttar Pradesh: Reworking strategy 56 impact on the young 21 High on hype 34 Rajasthan: A neoliberal blow 24 Punjab: Migrants return 36 Stable for now 58

On the Cover Inside a newly built isolation centre for COVID-19 patients in Mumbai. Air Surcharge: Colombo - Rs.20.00 and COVER DESIGN: U. UDAYA SHANKAR. PHOTOGRAPH: FRANCIS MASCARENHAS/REUTERS Port Blair - Rs.15.00

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Publisher, Printer, Editor, Director/s, Employees of this magazine/ company be held responsible/liable in any manner whatsoever for any e-mail: [email protected] claims and/or damages for advertisements in this magazine. Frontline is not responsible for the content of external Internet sites. J ULY 3, 2020 . F RONTLINE 3 COVER STORY IgG tests give you data about the prevalence of infection up to about a fortnight earlier since IgG antibodies begin to appear in the infected host only after 10-14 days and are detectable for even up to a few months after the infection has passed in the host. Assuming that the survey would have begun around mid May, the sero- surveillance data would tell you the state of prevalence of infections around April 30 and a few days after. If the blood sample collected is positive for IgG antibodies, the COVID cover-up person had SARS-CoV-2 infection in the past. The briefing was supposed to share the findings of the survey. The briefing may not even have happened if a The Union government presents data that seek more to hide the reality breaking news story in The Telegraph (India) had not appeared on June 9. On the basis of information about the pandemic than to reveal it and keeps the scientific anonymously shared by public health experts, including some ICMR officials, the story said that the survey had R. RAMACHANDRAN community out of the decision-making process. BY found that in big cities the true level of infection may be 100-200 times the confirmed cases reported and up to 30 .V. KRISHNAN .V. per cent of the population in these cities may have been V OFFICIALS OF THE UNION MINISTRY OF State health departments and other stakeholders. infected up to early May. Through a tweet the same day, BALRAM BHARGAVA, Health Secretary and Director Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) suffer from foot- As reported earlier by Frontline (“Denial and the ICMR denied this, saying that the report was General, Indian Council of Medical Research. in-mouth disease every time they brief the media on Deception’’, June 19), the ICMR announced on May 12 speculative as the full analysis of surveillance data was yet COVID-19. If they do not wish to be transparent about that in order to get an estimate of the prevalence of to be completed, and called a press briefing two days was among the lowest in the world does not wash. the entire data and prefer to make facts public only infection in the general population it would conduct later. According to him, the sero-survey had two parts. The selectively, that becomes clear more often than not. This community-level IgG antibody-based serological testing Interestingly, Bhargava began his briefing by stating first was to estimate the fraction that had been infected in time it showed in the June 11 briefing by the Director in 69 districts randomly selected from 21 States (Fig. 1). that the numbers of confirmed cases and deaths per lakh the general population and it had been completed. The General of the Indian Council of Medical Research This was supposed to cover 24,000 adults distributed population in India were among the lowest in the world. second part was to estimate the fraction of the population (ICMR), Balram Bhargava, on the nationwide sero- across four strata of the districts categorised on the basis This was obfuscation at its best. Having conducted a that had been infected in the containment zones of surveillance survey the ICMR conducted in association of reported cases of COVID-19. The survey involved sero-survey which, as he stated in the briefing, gave you hotspot cities, and that was yet to be completed. The with the Chennai-based National Institute of collection of 3-5 ml of venous blood samples from 400 information about the actual percentage of the general survey also provided information on who were at a higher Epidemiology (NIE) and National Institute for Research randomly selected individuals (one per household) from population that had been infected, to say that the number risk of infection and which containment areas needed to in Tuberculosis (NIRT) and in coordination with the 10 clusters in each district. of confirmed cases (and not the level of true infection) be strengthened, he said. The districts selected for the sero-survey had been put into four categories based on the COVID cases reported on April 25—zero cases, low incidence, medium incidence and high incidence—and a minimum of 15 districts were selected in each category. In the table shown in the briefing (Fig. 2), even basic arithmetic is wrong: the total number of districts chosen is stated as 83, whereas it is only 71 (even this is two more than the 69 selected districts announced on May 12); the clusters selected add up to 710, whereas the table shows the number as 770; and the number of urban clusters shown as a percentage of the total number of clusters in each category seems to have been calculated wrongly. The data of 65 of these 71 districts had apparently been completed. In the entire presentation neither the categories of low, medium and high incidence were defined nor the names of the 65 districts and the districts in each category were shared. This is the level of attention and care that the apex medical research body of the country gives to sharing information with the public on a pandemic, which reflects its attitude towards public information. The following results of the survey were given in the presentation:

DURING A MASS SCREENING in the Govandi area of

VIJAY BATE Mumbai on June 14.

5 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 0.73 per cent of the population in these districts had evidence of past exposure to SARS-CoV-2; Infection fatality rate (IFR) is low at 0.08 per cent; The risk of infection in urban areas and urban slums was 1.09 and 1.89 times respectively that in rural areas; and, Infection in containment zones (which containment zones?) was found to be high with significant variations, and this survey was still ongoing. The conclusions that the ICMR drew from the survey were apparently the following: The lockdown and containment had been successful in keeping the infection rate low and in preventing a rapid spread of the pandemic; However, a large population still remained susceptible. The first is clearly meant to show the policies being followed by the government to contain COVID-19 in a Y SPECIAL ARRANGEMENT SPECIAL Y . JOTHI RAMALINGAM JOTHI . B good light when it is as clear as daylight that, as a B statement issued by the Progressive Medicos and PRABHDEEP KAUR of the National Institute of AN ICMR TEAM collecting blood samples in Coimbatore district in Tamil Nadu. Scientists Forum (PMSF) about the briefing and data Epidemiology addressing the media in Chennai on May 29. says, “the presented data seek more to hide the reality over 0.35 million or 3.5 lakhs, an order of magnitude media. To achieve a successful long-term response to the higher than the actual number of confirmed cases across pandemic, stakeholders need to be guided by data, than reveal it”. If you extrapolate the above data to the all the 649 districts of the country. Even this integrity and a sense of responsibility toward the public.” entire population of the country of about 1.4 billion, the geographically restricted projection reflects very poorly It went on to say: “Some of these conflicts have number of infections (in early May) would be about 10.2 on the testing or infection detection rate. become apparent during the response of different million, or more than one crore, whereas the actual A news story in the June 10 issue of The Economic countries to the pandemic. Several European and Asia- number of confirmed cases in early May was 25,000- Times, a day before the briefing, quoted D.C.S. Reddy, Pacific countries made science-driven decisions to stem 40,000, a factor of over 30 down. In fact, in an earlier head of the ICMR’s 12-member panel of epidemiologists, the spread of infection, established preventative article (“Data Discrepancy”, May 8) Frontline had as saying that the findings of the data had not been measures, such as social distancing and use of face masks pointed out that the infection detection rate was about a shared with the ICMR’s epidemiology and surveillance by the general public, and implemented widespread factor 35 down. This would seem to roughly match with working group. However, The Economic Times had testing and contact tracing. Some of these countries are this. earlier reported that the ICMR chief had shared the now reporting results that point to success in containing As regards mortality, even if one assumes that the survey data with the Cabinet Secretary on June 4 and the virus…. It is the responsibility of scientists to help IFR of 0.08 per cent, found as a result of the sero-survey, with Health Ministry officials in a presentation via a shape public opinion on the basis of reliable knowledge. is correct for the total number of infections of 10.2 videoconference on June 6. This would seem to be in line Scientists today are called to tread the delicate line of million, it works out to over 8,000 deaths, whereas data with the government’s present practice of keeping the building public trust while providing sober assessments of early May showed 1,200-1,500 deaths. Does it mean scientific community out of policy decision-making or of data and managing expectations… maintaining an that even deaths were being missed in data collection? priority actions that need to be taken during a pandemic. honest working balance with politics and media is also Or, conversely, assuming that the number of COVID-19 The PMSF statement further said: “The above claims crucial, given that science does not operate in a deaths recorded was closer to the true figure as it would are even more risible since it was admitted by the vacuum…. Now more than ever we need to remember that, be difficult to hide deaths, if you use the IFR value of 0.08 spokespersons themselves that the data from the COVID similar to pandemic cures, change in public opinion does per cent on the number of deaths on any given date, it hot spots were still being compiled. The data presented not come about with miracles, but through dialogue, should give the total number of infections. If you use it on represents the COVID situation existing in the country as respect and incremental but decisive steps.” (Emphasis CMR I the early May figure of about 1,500 deaths, nearly 1.9 of 30 April. In a rapidly evolving pandemic situation added.) FIGURE 1: Districts selected for the sero-surveillance million people had been infected in early May. where the slope of the epidemic curve has steepened even It is the italicised part above that seems to be totally carried out in mid May by ICMR. Whichever way you look at the sero-survey data, they do further after the lockdown was lifted considerably, this absent in the way the government and senior health not gel with the official data being released day after day. data has already become dated in the 6 weeks gone by officials have been taking policy decisions and That is why, very carefully, Bhargava chose the phrase since then. It is noteworthy that in the countries, with implementing actions to contain the COVID-19 spread “in these districts” (italicised above) while presenting the which comparison has been done, the epidemic curve in the country. As of June 20, the number of confirmed results of the survey. A sero-survey is supposed to give a had flattened or was even falling after the lockdown…. cases and deaths increased by about 14,500 and 400 projection of prevalence in the general population These fallacious arguments seemed to have been respectively a day. This, both from the above discussion outside the districts/population sampled for the survey. forwarded to ultimately claim that there is no community and a very low rate of testing which even today is at just Now, to give the benefit of the doubt to the ICMR, even if transmission as of date in the country, hence, the need is about 4,000 per million population, is far smaller than one restricted the projection to the 60 plus districts to persist with containment strategy.” the actual figures. With the pandemic still very much at surveyed (about a tenth of the total number of districts), a A May 14 editorial in the journal Nature Cancer, play and with no clear-headed strategy to handle the FIGURE 2: Table showing district numbers according to rough calculation (by keeping out the urban districts titled “The tightrope of science, media and politics”, said, crisis evident from the policymakers who have decidedly the classification shown at the June 11 briefing at the from the original list of 69 and using the population data “The urgent need to address COVID-19 has highlighted marginalised the scientific community, it is far from clear ASED ON DATA PRESENTED BY DG, ICMR DG, BY PRESENTED DATA ON ASED Press Information Bureau. B of 2011), the total number of infections worked out to the delicate relationships among science, politics and the where the country is headed. २

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 6 7 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 COVER STORY

ment of RECOVERY results, quoted Anthony Fauci, Dir- ector of the United States’ National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), as saying: “The pattern of response matches the notion that a hyperactive im- mune response is more likely to be harmful in long-term, A step towards recovery serious infections. When you’re so far advanced that you’re on a ventilator, it’s usually that you have an aber- rant or hyperactive inflammatory response that contrib- In a significant breakthrough, the steroid dexamethasone has been found utes as much to the morbidity and mortality as any direct viral effect.” to reduce mortality in severe COVID-19 cases during a drug trial in the N OTE OF CAUTION United Kingdom. BY R. RAMACHANDRAN (Correspondent’s note: A note of caution is necessary in interpreting the results for those not receiving any oxy- AT A TIME WHEN COVID-19 HAS CLAIMED ilated patients by nearly one-third (rate ratio between gen support, both in the control group and in the group over 4,40,000 lives worldwide (as of June 18) and a those being given the steroid and those who did not receiving the drug. In the former, the 13 per cent mortal- vaccine or cure is still a long way off, a breakthrough receive was 0.65) and one-fifth in those receiving oxygen ity rate appears to be high. It is presumed that this set finding in the United Kingdom randomised trial only (rate ratio 0.80). There was “no benefit” to those who may have included patients who were very elderly or with presents a slender ray of hope. Named RECOVERY did not need any respiratory support (rate ratio 1.22). In severe co-morbidities. In the group that received the (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy), the other words, these results mean that dexamethasone drug, the phrase “no benefit” appears to be slightly mis- trial, which began in March, seeks to test a range of prevents about 1 death in 8 ventilated patients and 25 placed when the mortality rate has in fact gone up by as IMON DAWSON/BLOOMBERG IMON potential treatments for the disease. patients receiving oxygen alone. “Overall,” the release S much as 22 per cent on administration of the drug, which From among the trials of six drugs for treating said, “dexamethasone reduced the 28-day mortality rate DEXAMETHASONE,a commonly available steroid used is by no means small. Unfortunately, the release does not COVID-19, one trial that used low-dose dexamethasone, by 17 per cent with a highly significant trend showing to reduce inflammation in other ailments, which give any information about the age distribution of the a commonly available steroid used to reduce inflamma- greatest benefit among those patients requiring ventila- has been found to improve survival of COVID-19 patients sampled patients or reason for rate ratio being signific- tion in other ailments, has found that it reduces by 35 per tion.” with severe respiratory complications who require antly greater than 1. The mortality rate can go up if there cent the mortality of COVID-19 patients with severe A news report in Nature, soon after the announce- ventilator support. were many patients from a younger age group in that set, respiratory complications who require ventilator sup- because the immunosuppressant action of the drug had a port, and by 20 per cent the mortality of those requiring dominating effect.) only oxygen support, as compared to the corresponding The results of the dexamethasone trial are yet to be cohort groups who were not administered dexa- published in any peer-reviewed journal, although the methasone. The trial also showed that the drug had no release said, “Given the public health importance of these significant effect on the mortality rate of COVID-19 pos- results, we are now working to publish the full details as itive cases who were not under any severe respiratory soon as possible.” The writer and well-known medical stress. specialist from Harvard, Atul Gawande, tweeted: “After For the entire trial of all the six repurposed drugs, all the retractions [referring to retractions of studies on RECOVERY had enrolled over 11,500 patients from over hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) by Lancet] and walk backs, it 175 National Health Service (NHS) hospitals in the is unacceptable to tout study results by press release United Kingdom. Of these, a total of 2,104 patients had without releasing the paper.” enrolled for the dexamethasone trial; the last enrolment One of the greatest puzzles that remains unsolved is for this was on June 8. The dosage for the dexamethasone the cause of death in COVID-19—whether it is the virus trial was 6 mg once a day, either orally or intravenously, itself or the host’s immune response that goes into an for 10 days. This effect on this group was compared with overdrive and overwhelms the patient. According to 4,321 randomised COVID-19 patients under normal clinicians, the immune system does seem to play a role; care. According to the June 16 press release from RE- this has led doctors to turn to anti-inflammatory drugs, COVERY on the results of the trial, among the patients which are usually given for other conditions, including who received usual care, the 28-day mortality rate was auto-immune disorders, when the immune system be- highest in those requiring ventilation (41 per cent), inter- gins to act against the host itself, resulting in chronic mediate in those on oxygen support only (25 per cent) inflammation. and lowest in those who did not require any respiratory Early on in the pandemic, doctors in China had ob- intervention (13 per cent). served in cases of death that the immune system had Dexamethasone brought down the mortality in vent- overreacted to the external pathogen, the SARS-CoV-2. It was found that some critically ill COVID-19 patients A SCIENTIST at work as part of the TACTIC-R trial at the had high levels of proteins called cytokines in their blood. Cambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology and Cytokines include proteins called interleukins and inter- IRSTY WIGGLESWORTH/BLOOMBERG IRSTY

Infectious Disease in Cambridge, U.K., on May 21. K leukin-6 (IL-6), which are signals for ramping up some

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 8 9 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 parts of the immune system, particularly cells called quirement is increasing and if inflammatory markers COVER STORY macrophages. Macrophages cause a heightened inflam- are increased).” matory response, which can sometimes damage normal For severe cases, among the many recommended lung cells as well. The release of such cytokines, often therapeutic interventions, it has included: “For patients referred to as a “cytokine storm”, are known to occur in with progressive deterioration of oxygenation indicators, other viral infections such as HIV-AIDS. rapid worsening on imaging and excessive activation of Anti-inflammatory drugs called IL-6 inhibitors are the body’s inflammatory response, glucocorticoids can be used for the treatment of chronic inflammatory condi- used for a short period of time (3 to 5 days). It is recom- tions or auto-immune disorders such as rheumatoid mended that dose should not exceed the equivalent of Vaccine scenarios arthritis. One such drug, a non-steroidal injectable called methylprednisolone 1–2mg/kg/day. Note that a larger The strategy of targeting the Spike protein so as to prevent its binding and tocilizumab, has been approved in China for treating dose of glucocorticoid will delay the removal of COVID-19 patients as well. In fact, tocilizumab is one of coronavirus due to immunosuppressive effects.” In the fusion with human cells is the cornerstone of almost all the 100-odd the other five drugs under the RECOVERY trial in the light of the latest results from RECOVERY, it is not yet U.K. It would, therefore, be interesting to see the results clear if the guidelines will include dexamethasone as vaccine development proposals across the world that are in various stages of this trial when they come out. well. of development. BY R. RAMACHANDRAN Steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs such as dexa- Till date, the antiviral drug remdesivir, which inter- methasone also suppress the immune system unlike IL-6 feres with the virus’s replication, is the only drug that has inhibitors, which suppress those immune responses gov- shown to work on COVID-19 patients, following a large IN AN EARLIER ISSUE OF FRONTLINE (MAY the ancestral Wuhan strain. The advance e-print of this erned by IL-6, but allow other immune responses that randomised controlled clinical trial involving over 1,000 22), we had discussed, based on the work of Nidhan peer-reviewed work, which is due to be published in can help fight the virus function as usual. But steroids, patients in the U.S. On April 29, Fauci announced that Biswas and Partha P. Majumder of the National Institute Indian Journal of Medical Research (IJMR), appeared which tend to dampen the immune system, can hamper the trial had found that those who took remdesivir re- of Biomedical Genomics (NIBG), Kalyani, West Bengal, on April 28. the host’s ability to fight the virus by affecting other covered in 11 days whereas those on a placebo took 15 how mutations accumulating in the original strain since A few days after the Biswas-Majumder work, which immune responses. In an early report in Nature, Daniel days. However, he added that while remdesivir the COVID-19 outbreak started in Wuhan, China, in was an analysis of annotated database of 3.636 genomes Chen, an immunologist at the IGM Biosciences in Cali- shortened the hospitalisation time for a patient, it did not December 2019, have resulted in 11 (phylogenetically) publicly available up to April 6, appeared, a similar ana- fornia, has been quoted as saying, “You have to assume have any statistically significant effect on deaths. But distinct types or clades circulating in different parts of lysis was carried out by B. Korber and associates—an that there’s an ongoing antiviral immune response [as remdesivir is apparently in short supply worldwide; also, the world. We also saw how, from among these, Type A2a American-British research group from the Los Alamos well] that is important to these patients.” According to the drug has to administered through injection over had emerged as the dominant strain in virtually all geo- National Laboratory (LANL) and the Duke Human Vac- him, although IL-6 levels are high in some critically ill several days. From the RECOVERY results, it would graphic regions of the world, including India, replacing cine Institute, United States, and the Sheffield COVID-19 patients, viral loads are high as well, which is seem that dexamethasone will become the drug of choice COVID-19 Genomics Group, United Kingdom—with a indicative of an active immune response to fight the for those on ventilator support. somewhat larger database of 4,535 genomes (publicly infection. In that case, he added, reducing immune re- available until April 13). This LANL-Duke-Sheffield sponse in the form of (CD4 and CD8) T-cells could U .K. GOVERNMENT’S DECISION work came to the same broad conclusion as Biswas- undermine that response. The release quoted Horby as saying: “Dexamethasone is Majumder, that the type defined by the mutation D614G Responding to apprehensions expressed by some the first drug to be shown to improve survival in (which substitutes amino acid aspartic acid (D) to glycine clinicians against trials using steroidal anti-inflammat- COVID-19…The survival benefit is clear and large in (G) at the site 614 in the Spike protein of the virus), ory drugs such as dexamethasone, Peter Horby of Oxford those patients who are sick enough to require oxygen namely A2a, had emerged as the dominant type in nearly University, who heads the RECOVERY trial, had said in treatment, so dexamethasone should now become stand- all parts of the world. This work was posted on the April that the trial would use relatively low doses of the ard of care in these patients. Dexamethasone is inexpens- e-preprint repository bioRxiv on April 30. steroid. “Higher doses are not routinely recommended ive, on the shelf, and can be used immediately to save lives Now, the Spike protein (S) is what enables the virus to but the jury is out on lower doses. And many authorities, worldwide.” Indeed, shortly after the results were an- gain entry into the human cells by binding with receptor including the WHO, recommend a trial,” he said. nounced, the U.K. government immediately authorised ACE2 on the surface of human cells, fuse with the cells According to Horby, data from steroid trials during the use of dexamethasone for patients hospitalised with and use the cell machinery to replicate itself into multiple SARS and MERS outbreaks, also caused by coronavir- COVID-19 and requiring oxygen support, including copies which go on to infect other cells. The S protein has uses, were inconclusive. Given some promising results ventilators. two components S1 and S2. While the receptor binding from steroid studies in previous outbreaks and dexa- “Had we been able to use dexamethasone from the domain (RBD) of the virus is part of S1, which is respons- methasone’s widespread availability, Horby had said that start of the epidemic in the U.K., scientists estimate up to ible for binding with the human ACE2 receptor, S2 per- RECOVERY investigators felt it prudent to include it 5,000 lives could have been saved,” wrote Devi Sridhar, forms the function of fusion of the virus membrane with among the drugs on trial. Now, following the RECOV- Chair of Global Public Health at the University of Edin- the human cell. The crucial difference between SARS- ERY results, Horby has called it a major breakthrough. burgh, in The Guardian. But she also added the caveat, CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 is the presence of a cleavage site Interestingly, the document “Clinical Manage- “But we also should not think of dexamethasone as a at the S1/S2 boundary and the virus makes use of host ment Protocol: COVID-19”, published by the Union magic bullet….The real game-changer will be a drug that The Spike protein (S) is enzymes like furin to do the job of splitting the S protein Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, includes ster- prevents people transitioning from mild symptoms to a at the boundary. This makes its entry into, and fusion oidal anti-inflammatory drugs in its guidelines for severe state. With such a drug, alongside widespread what enables the virus to with, the cell far more efficient than in the case of clinical management. It has not recommended the use testing and early detection, patients could be treated in SARS-CoV-1. of dexamethasone, but advises the use of methylpred- community and outpatient clinics. It also does not ad- gain entry into the human So, naturally, the strategy of targeting the S protein, nisolone. For moderate cases requiring oxygen sup- dress the long-term health issues associated with the so as to prevent its binding and fusion with human cells, port, the document says: “Consider intravenous virus for those with mild and severe symptoms, given that cells by binding with the is the cornerstone of almost all the 100-odd vaccine methylprednisolone 0.5 to 1 mg/kg for 3 days (prefer- it affects so many parts of the body including the brain, development proposals across the world that are in vari- ably within 48 hours of admission or if oxygen re- heart, kidney and blood vessels.” २ receptor ACE2... ous stages of development. In fact, the LANL-Duke-

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 10 11 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 P MPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON VIA AP VIA LONDON COLLEGE MPERIAL A I

FRENCH President Emmanuel Macron visits an industrial Having noted that the mutation D614G, which char- THIS photo provided by Imperial College London shows a However, as the authors of this work themselves note development laboratory at the vaccine unit of the Sanofi acterises globally dominant Type A2a of the virus, was COVID-19 vaccine candidate. in the paper, the mutations that define this particular Pasteur plant near Lyon on June 16. located in the S1/S2 junction near the furin recognition Type A3i all pertain to structural proteins, the Nucleo- site for the cleavage of S protein, Biswas and Majumder ing human lung epithelial cells, lentivirus carrying the capsid (N) protein and the Envelope (E) while A2a had to Sheffield approach in studying the various mutations of observed: “It is unclear whether the derived allele produ- D614G mutation was up to eightfold more effective at do with amino acid substitution in the S protein and the virus was from the perspective of knowing if there cing glycine directly provides a selective/transmission transferring foreign genetic material into human cells Membrane (M) protein, the critical infective compon- were any mutations that were gaining ground in the advantage for the entry of the virion”. than the wild-type lentivirus. “This,” the authors said, ents of the coronavirus SARS-COV-2. So mutations in disease spread that could affect the strategies currently Recently, two e-preprints have appeared on the “provides functional evidence that the D614G mutation Type A3i have no particular significance vis-a-vis vac- being pursued for vaccine development. As the group’s bioRxiv repository, both of which have followed very in the Spike protein increases transduction of human cine development efforts. paper said, “We have developed an analysis pipeline to similar experimental procedure of using pseudotyped cells…. Given that several vaccines in development and in Responding to a basic query, whether mutation facilitate real-time mutation tracking in SARS-CoV-2, viruses (with the envelope and S protein of SARS-CoV-2, clinical trials are based on the initial [unmutated] Spike D614G had any implication for vaccine development that focussing initially on the Spike protein because it medi- mutated and unmutated) and have showed that the sequence, this result has important implications for the is based on the original unmutated strain, Shahid ates infection of human cells and is the target of most mutation D614G resulted in increased infectivity of the efficacy of these vaccines in protecting against this recent Jameel, former virologist from the International Centre vaccine strategies and antibody-based therapeutics.” mutated virus as against the ancestral Wuhan strain. and highly-prevalent SARS-CoV-2 isolate.” They did, for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (ICGEB), The authors further observed: “Although the ob- (Pseudotyped viruses or viral vectors are produced by however, note as a caveat that the pseudotyped lentivirus New Delhi, and currently the chief of the Wellcome served diversity among pandemic SARS-CoV-2 se- combining a given virus with foreign envelope (E) pro- model had a different pathway for assembling the entire Trust-DBT India Alliance, said: “From a vaccine point of quences is low, its rapid global spread provides the virus teins. In this case, other known viruses were combined virus [as it multiplies in the host] and it was unclear view… the most important region is the receptor binding with ample opportunity for natural selection to act upon with SARS-CoV-2’s E and (mutated and unmutated) S whether the number of Spike molecules on the pseudo- domain (RBD) in the Spike protein that attaches to the rare but favorable mutations…. Antigenic drift in influ- proteins). typed lentivirus is comparable to that of the full SARS- ACE2 receptor on the surface of target cells. However, enza, the accumulation of mutations [in the haemagglu- On June 12, Lizhou Zhang and others from the CoV-2 virus. the RBD in the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein is located tinin protein] by the virus during an influenza season… is Scripps Research Institute, U.S., posted their work in So, is the D614G mutation likely to have serious between amino acids 319 to 529. This is away from the the primary reason we need to develop new influenza which they created retroviruses pseudotyped with the implications for worldwide vaccine development? region of this mutation (amino acid 614). Therefore, this vaccines every few seasons…. SARS-CoV-2 is new to us; mutated and unmutated S protein of SARS-CoV-2 and Before we address that question, as an aside, we note is unlikely to have any effect on the vaccines that are we do not yet know if it will wane seasonally…but our lack found that mutated S protein infected ACE2-expressing here that, on May 31, scientists from the Council of being developed using either the complete Spike protein of pre-existing immunity and its high transmissibility cells markedly more efficiently than the unmutated ver- Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) laboratories of or its RBD.” relative to influenza are among the reasons it may not. If sion. This greater infectivity was correlated with less S1 the Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology (CCMB), This is certainly reassuring that the strategies and the pandemic fails to wane, this could exacerbate the shedding, which implied that the mutated S protein was Hyderabad, and the Institute for Genomics and Integrat- efforts currently under way are not going to be impacted potential for antigenic drift and the accumulation of more stable. This observation was consistent with epi- ive Biology (IGIB), New Delhi, posted on the e-preprint by this mutation that seems to have given the virus a immunologically relevant mutations in the population demiological data suggesting that Type A2a viruses server bioRxiv an analysis of publicly available genomic selective advantage over the other types. Its apparent during the year or more it will take to deliver the first transmitted more efficiently, the paper said. data of 361 Indian isolates, an order of magnitude more increased infectivity and stability notwithstanding, any vaccine. Such a scenario is plausible, and by attending to On June 15, Zharko Daniloski and associates from than what Biswas-Majumder had access to. They found efficacious and viable vaccine targeting the S protein that this risk now, we may be able to avert missing important the New York Genome Centre and New York University that, while Type A2a continues to be dominant in India, a is ready should, according to Jameel, be effective as a evolutionary transitions in the virus that if ignored could posted a similar work, but they had used lentivirus for new type, which they had christened A3i, characterised public health measure, which needs to be made available ultimately limit the effectiveness of the first vaccines to pseudotyping as against retroviruses by the Scripps by four other mutations, had begun to appear with signi- globally, sans politics and diplomacy, as an affordable clinical use.” group. They observed that in multiple cell lines, includ- ficant frequency in India. prophylactic against COVID-19. २

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 12 13 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 COVER STORY Force (NTF) on COVID-19 stated that only 0.73 per cent strong implementation of containment strategies by the of the general population had been infected. The infec- States”. tion fatality rate (IFR) was also low, at 0.08 per cent. The The assertion in the press conference that the “lock- summary of the results were full of contradictions. While down was successful” had little basis according to the 0.73 per cent of the population surveyed had shown past conclusions arrived at by the sero survey that large sec- evidence of being infected, the lockdown and contain- tions of the population were still susceptible and that ment had been successful in preventing the rapid spread, containment strategies would continue. the presentation said. A large proportion of the popula- Maze of numbers tion was still susceptible, the survey said, and the risk was D ATA DEFICIT In terms of COVID statistics, governments, both at the Centre and in the 1.09 and 1.89 times higher in urban and urban slums Apart from the basic details given in the government’s respectively compared with rural areas. press releases, there was no break-up of the asympto- States, seem keen to hide more than what the numbers could otherwise If the 0.73 per cent infection rate is extrapolated to matic and symptomatic cases. If the number of active the 1.37 billion population of the country, it would be cases under medical supervision were symptomatic, BY T.K. RAJALAKSHMI reveal. around 99 lakh, which is by no means a small figure. The could it be assumed that all the remaining infections districts for the sero survey were selected on the basis of were asymptomatic and not likely to develop complica- ON JUNE 18, 10 DAYS AFTER THE CENTRAL key, Iran, Germany, France, Brazil, Russia, Italy, the the incidence of reported COVID cases as on April 25. tions but still had the potential of infecting others? On government’s decision to “Unlock” India in phases, a United Kingdom, Spain, the United States, Peru and The survey was done in the third week of May to ascertain June 17, when the number of confirmed cases and deaths Union Health Ministry release stated that there were Chile. It glossed over the fact that India had the highest the prevalence of antibodies in the population as a result were added retrospectively, as part of a “data reconcili- 1,60,384 active COVID-19 cases under medical supervi- number of cases and deaths among East and South Asian of contracting the infection in April end. ation exercise”, it stirred up questions on whether States sion across the country from 62,49,668 samples collected countries. The conclusions of the survey were as follows: One, a were reporting correctly. until then. Giving bare details, it further stated that the Next in the press briefing were the results of the first “large proportion of the population is still susceptible and On June 15, the Press Information Bureau (PIB) recovery rate was 52.96 per cent and that there were 953 part of the serological survey conducted in the third week infection can spread”; two, “non-pharmacological inter- declared as fake a news agency report that claimed to laboratories (699 in the government sector and 254 in of May in 83 districts to monitor the transmission trend ventions like physical distancing, face mask, hand hy- have sourced its information from an ICMR study. The the private sector) in the country. Significantly, there was of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Blood samples were collected giene, cough etiquette must be followed strictly”; three, agency report was published in a few newspapers. Citing no mention of the fact that each day anywhere between from 26,400 individuals to test for antibodies. The “urban slums were highly vulnerable for the spread of an ICMR study, the report said that the peak of 10,000 and 11,000 cases were being added to the overall second part of the survey was being done in containment infection”; four, “local lockdown measures need to con- COVID-19 had shifted to November and that there tally. zones of hotspot cities to ascertain what section of the tinue as advised by the Government of India”; five, high- would be a paucity of ICU beds and ventilators. The PIB The same day, Union Health Minister Harsh Vard- population had been infected with SARS-CoV-2, the risk groups like the elderly, those with co-morbidities, Fact Check on Twitter, however, stated that the report han launched India’s first mobile Infectious Disease Dia- results of which are awaited. pregnant women and children under 10 need to be pro- was misleading and that the ICMR had not carried out gnostic Lab to promote last-mile testing in remote and The survey results presented by a panel comprising tected; six, “States cannot lower their guard and [should] the study. inaccessible areas. According to a government release, Dr Balram Bhargava, Director General, Indian Council keep on implementing effective surveillance and con- Frontline accessed a copy of the multi-author study the mobile laboratory could conduct 25 RT-PCR (Re- of Medical Research (ICMR), and Dr Vinod Paul, Mem- tainment strategies”; and seven, “efforts to limit the scale under dispute titled “A Model based analysis for verse transcription-polymerase chain reaction) tests a ber, NITI Aayog and chairperson of the National Task and spread of the disease will have to be continued by COVID-19 pandemic in India: Implications for Health day, 300 ELISA tests, and additional tests for tubercu- losis and HIV at Central Government Health Scheme (CGHS) rates. The laboratory’s launch was in some sense an admission of the fact that the infection had spread to rural pockets too. Not a surprise, considering the large- scale migration of workers from cities to their villages in March through May. The exodus was spurred by the government’s abrupt decision to impose a lockdown without a contingency plan for the migrant worker popu- lation engaged mainly in the informal sectors of the economy.

S ERO SURVEY Despite the wide geographical spread of the infection, the government has consistently maintained silence on pos- sible community transmission. On June 11, the govern- ment released the results of the first serological survey conducted in the country that gave an indication of the spread of the infection in the general population. The briefing began with a statistical presentation that showed India in a favourable position vis-a-vis the worst faring countries. The number of cases and deaths per lakh population in India was lower than that in Mexico, Tur-

A QUEUE for COVID-19 screening at a coronavirus ANISH SWARUP/AP ANISH designated hospital in New Delhi on June 10. M

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 14 Systems and Policy for Low and Middle Income coun- ing to Amulya Nidhi, a public health activist based in tries”. The academic paper did not appear to have been Bhopal and associated with the People’s Health Move- peer reviewed but was funded by the ICMR. An ICMR ment, this claim was contrary to the situation on the researcher and the chair of the Operations Research ground. By the second week of June, COVID-19 cases had Group of the NTF were two of its seven authors. The spread in all the 52 districts of Madhya Pradesh, he said. study “gratefully acknowledged” the inputs on research The number of positive cases had crossed 11,000 and the methods by the members of the Operations Research death toll was 476. The number of testing laboratories Group of the NTF and of a member of ICMR’s Global had gone up to 59, but as of June 15 as many as 4,180 test Health Policy Research Cell. results were still pending. The study aimed at comparing and predicting health “In the last two months there have been issues related outcomes under (i) an unmitigated scenario with only air to pending samples, missing samples and missing test travel restrictions, and (ii) the current scenario with air reports, and civil society and the media have raised alleg- travel restrictions and an eight-week lockdown. It was a ations of misreporting of the number of COVID cases in model-based study among several others that were being the State,” he said. “According to Indore’s health bulletin done nationally and globally. There could be disagree- of June 14, of 1,058 test reports that day, 1,006 reports ment with the findings of the study, but to declare it as were negative and only six were found to be positive. “fake” was an extreme reaction on the part of the govern- When the media raised the issue of the missing 46 test ment, more so when the ICMR had funded it. reports, the authorities clarified that out of the 46 re- The model also explored the effectiveness of the ports, two were repeated positive and 44 were [classified eight-week lockdown along with the intensified public as] Sample Insufficient for the Process [SIP]. This was a health measures at varying levels of effectiveness. It as- new classification introduced in the bulletin, unheard of certained the need for augmenting infrastructure and earlier,” Amulya Nidhi told Frontline. costs of COVID-19 management. The authors reiterated The Jan Swasthya Abhiyan (JSA), he said, had been what many others had already said: that lockdown meas- raising since early May the issue of inappropriate hand- ures tended to delay the onset of the peak and give ling of samples and had taken up the matter with the enough time for health systems to prepare; that strength- ICMR. On investigation, the ICMR also found that there ening the public health system response in terms of were multiple gaps in the managing of test samples. It testing, isolation, treatment of cases and contact tracing had written to the State government way back in April OMMURI SRINIVAS SRINIVAS OMMURI would lead to significant gains in meeting caseload and K highlighting multiple violations such as leaked and miss- health system needs. This had to be the mainstay of ing samples and incomplete documentation. As many as reducing the impact of the pandemic until a vaccine was A HEALTH WORKER conducts a survey in a red zone in pages of 21 State governments and two Union Territories 5,059 samples were “rejected”, with Indore alone ac- available. Ongole, Andhra Pradesh, on April 30. Nayak did concluded that there was an urgent need to counting for 529 samples. The study also said that an eight-week lockdown develop templates for information disclosure across the Said Amulya Nidhi: “The State government had would shift the peak by 34-76 days and an effective the need for preparedness. The reasons for the govern- country. There was no uniformity in terms of details stopped providing the status of testing kits and other lockdown would reduce the caseload by 69-97 per cent at ment’s discomfort regarding the findings were unclear. It given in State government bulletins across India as supply-related information to citizens since early May the end of eight weeks. If public health surveillance did not seem to want to associate the ICMR with the Frontline had pointed out earlier. Some State bulletins 2020. Similarly, there is no information on how many measures were intensified by 60 per cent, they would study, but in the PIB Fact Checker it suppressed the fact like that of Uttar Pradesh needed a login id to access basic various categories of hospitals and health centres exist in result in a reduction of cases at the peak by 70 per cent that the ICMR had funded the study. A complete dissoci- information on the daily count of infections and deaths as the State and the infrastructure development that was and cumulative number of infections by 26.6 per cent, it ation was therefore not possible. well as COVID hospital details. Likewise, there was carried out in the last two months in the State. The said. Intensified public health measures could reduce by scarce information regarding the implementation of reg- lockdown was intended to slow down the infection curve 83 per cent the requirement of ICU beds and ventilators, L ACK OF TRANSPARENCY ulations in the private health care sector where reports of and buy time to strengthen the public health system. As it said. However, intensified public health measures Lack of transparency has been an issue for some time. overcharging and denial of treatments were being repor- per the State government’s COVID management plan of would raise the cost of management of COVID-19 to 6.2 According to Venkatesh Nayak, head of the Access to ted consistently by the media. May 28, even though the fatality rate has gone down from per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP). At the Information Programme at the Commonwealth Human In a recent article titled “Pandemic and Beyond: 4.7 to 4.3 per cent over 10 days from May end, the rate of moment, India was spending far less on overall health Rights Initiative, to date there has been no centralised Regulating private healthcare” in policycorps.org, an on- deaths [seven-day Compound Annual Growth Rate] and on COVID-19 management in particular. form of information in the public domain on COVID line portal, Shweta Marathe, a Pune-based health re- during the same period had increased from 2 to 2.4 per The model-based study also projected that the cur- hospitals and treatment centres in the country. He filed a searcher, says that private hospitals that accounted for cent. This report also confirmed that the peak was expec- rent dedicated resources such as ICU beds, isolation beds formal request on April 17 under the Right To Informa- two-thirds of hospital beds in the country, 80 per cent of ted in July, but the administration has been sending a and ventilators would last until September 3, beyond tion Act seeking information on district-wise details of ventilators and employed 90 per cent of doctors were general message that things are in control. A large seg- which there would be an unmet need for about 3.3 COVID hospitals, their postal addresses and telephone handling less than 10 per cent of the critical load. There ment of the political leadership is now busy with cam- months for isolation beds and 2.9 months for ventilators. numbers but received no response. He then filed a com- was no monitoring mechanism to ensure that hospitals paigns for the upcoming byelections for 24 seats which The authors were candid enough to admit that the study plaint with the Central Information Commission (CIC). were not overcharging and denying health care, the art- determined the change of government in March, just had data limitations as it was based on epidemiological On June 5, the CIC issued an advisory to the Union icle says. when the pandemic was making headway in the State.” evidence drawn from countries that had already experi- Health Ministry to fill the information gap. The CIC also He also expressed concern that instead of drawing enced the epidemic. Future research should focus on observed that it was “appalled to learn that this basic I NWARD SPREAD out plans to ensure regular treatment of people with generating more epidemiological evidences and carrying information pertaining to district-wise designated On June 18, Union Minister for Information and Broad- non-COVID conditions through the public health-care out model-based analysis at the State level to inform local COVID treatment centres could not be provided to the casting Prakash Javadekar lauded the efforts of the Bhar- system, the government had issued an order for short- policies, it said. information seeker by any of the respondents”. atiya Janata Party-led government in Madhya Pradesh in term empanelment of private hospitals under Ayushman In all fairness, the authors had merely underscored A random survey of COVID-related websites and web effectively controlling the spread of COVID. But, accord- Bharat. २

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 16 17 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 COVER STORY Still a mystery With herd immunity an open question, vaccine trials still ongoing and repeat outbreaks in countries that opened up, continuing to wear masks, practising physical distancing and minimising crowd situations may be the only way to keep the virus at bay.

BY SHAHUL HAMEED EBRAHIM AND N.M. MUJEEB RAHMAN

BOTH COVID-19 AND LOCKDOWNS ARE diseases, the conventional number is 80 per cent, mean- equally depressing. Hope is unique to humans and it is ing 80 per cent of the population has been infected and infinite. Tired of lockdowns, hotspots of infection and survived because of immunity or resistance to the dis- reports of escalating cases worldwide, the world is ease. For other diseases, herd immunity is achieved with eagerly awaiting either of the two magic bullets needed to vaccines to a level of 95 per cent. In other words, if 5 per get past the COVID-19 pandemic: herd immunity or cent of the population remains susceptible to the dis- vaccines. Are we there yet? The answer is a resounding eases, they are so few in number that they are unable to “No”. Diseases such as measles and chickenpox, once cause widespread disease. We still see outbreaks of dis- common among children, are now rare even in the least eases such as measles, but they are usually confined to a IMAS ARDIAN/BLOOMBERG ARDIAN/BLOOMBERG IMAS developed countries. Thanks to vaccines and childhood small percentage of the unvaccinated population. A D infections, there is enough herd immunity to contain lower level of exposure to the disease, say 7 per cent for AT A MALL in Jakarta on June 17 during a partial easing of the lockdown after more than two months. large outbreaks from these old challenges. So, we remain COVID-19 in Sweden currently, in the population can hopeful. still slow the spread of a disease somewhat, meaning that lead to immunity (or are these antibodies really able to What we do not have are populations where no mitig- The concept of herd immunity is not new. It means this 7 per cent will not play role in transmission. But that neutralise new invading viruses)? Second, how long will ation was implemented, like a lottery, knowingly letting the “majority” of the population has been exposed to a will not be sufficient to reduce the R0 value. The herd immunity last in an individual? Third, can we get to the many people die for the benefit of a few winners. This was virus and survived. In such a scenario, when the virus immunity number represents the point at which infec- required percentage at the population level? Fourth, are done to 399 poor black men with syphilis in Tuskegee, enters the body, the antibodies (the fighter proteins in the tions are substantially less likely to turn into large adequate types of tests available to realistically measure Alabama, United States, starting in the 1930s. The men blood, equipped with a detailed memory of the invading outbreaks. the concept of herd immunity? Finally, will herd im- were denied treatment so that the progression of the virus) make it difficult for the virus to invade the body. Five questions about herd immunity remain to be munity requirements vary in populations depending on disease could be observed. In 1994, U.S. President Bill How do antibodies help? Like water on fire, they can ascertained. First, does the presence of antibodies really socio-economics, density, age and pre-existing diseases. Clinton apologised to the victims of this experiment, and easily go to and neutralise the invaders. Early on in the We do not know the answers to the first two ques- this led to significant oversight for all scientific studies outbreak of COVID-19, we heard that its R0 value, or the tions. On the third question, data from some of the done now. Today, we are unlikely to get such data any- basic reproductive number, was between 2 and 5. This hardest-hit cities in the world suggest that the vast ma- where in the world. means that in normal settings where everyone is suscept- jority of people still remain vulnerable to the virus. The The single-digit numbers of prevalence of COVID-19 ible, an infected family member can give the infection to percentage of people with antibodies remains very low. antibodies quoted here are a fraction of the ideal num- two to five family members. But if three out of four people This is true for communities that underwent lockdowns bers required to reach a level at which the virus can no have had previous infections and thus have antibodies such as New York City (20 per cent) and Wuhan (10 per longer spread widely. It would be inhuman to let the virus with a good memory of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that cent), for those that did not implement drastic measures run rampant in a population to achieve this level of causes COVID-19, then the newly infected family mem- such as Sweden (7 per cent) and for those that considered immunity in the natural state. Simply put, we do not have ber cannot infect the three family members who had the delaying lockdowns hoping to achieve natural immunity a good way to safely build up immunity. disease previously and can cause only one infection. And such as London (18 per cent). that makes it much less likely that large clusters of All the other hotspots have a lower prevalence of S EROLOGY SURVEYS COVID-19 can flourish, and infection transmission dies antibodies (Madrid, 11 per cent; Boston, 10 per cent; and The tests required to assess herd immunity are different out. Barcelona, 7 per cent). On the basis of these numbers, it from those that help with the diagnosis of the disease. To So, what does the “majority” of the population mean can be easily said that 7-10 times as many people need to assess immunity, we need tests that look for antibodies in in real numbers in terms of exposure to COVID-19 to get infected to reach the desirable 60 per cent-80 per cent people’s blood, the proteins produced by the immune achieve herd immunity? The threshold for herd im- JOHN SIBLEY/REUTERS range of illness in the population so that there is suffi- system that indicate a past infection. People who had no munity to SARS-CoV-2 is unknown. “Guesstimates” NEAR Piccadilly Circus in London on June 15. Being cautious cient immunity in populations and outbreaks will not symptoms would be recognised via these types of anti- range between 60 and 80 per cent. For most known with COVID-19 is the best strategy for survival. occur. body tests. However, these tests are far from perfect. And

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 18 19 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 is a repository of all trials (https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/ COVER STORY who_table). Over 100 treatment options are also listed in the clinical trials list. Vaccines will require time to pass through preclinical development (mostly in laboratories) to the human trials phases: phase I (safety in humans), phase II (activity against artificial infection in humans) and phase III (safety and efficacy in natural conditions in humans). Saving the This will take at least 8-12 months if all goes well. What is seen as promising in laboratory test tubes, often the focus of media attention, may not always work in a human being. Only about one out of 10 candidates from the preclinical stage will reach final approvals. There may be ‘lockdown generation’ diseases and medications that challenge the outcome of such studies. Making vaccines available globally is another chal- Early monitoring reports by the International Labour Organisation P A lenge, and post-marketing surveillance will still need to suggest that globally the young working population has borne the brunt of THE FIRST PATIENT enrolled in Pfizer’s COVID-19 be done. Vaccine hesitancy (people refusing vaccines for coronavirus vaccine clinical trial, at the University of a variety of reasons: a disbelief in vaccines, trust in nat- the COVID-19 pandemic. BY T.K. RAJALAKSHMI Maryland School of Medicine in Baltimore in the U.S., ural immunity, religious reasons, conspiracy theories receiving an injection on May 4. against vaccines) remains a challenge to many vaccine programmes, which has led to sporadic global outbreaks ONE OF THE BIGGEST BLOWS DEALT BY THE terventions, to mitigate long-term damage to young may sometimes be wrong. Some other viruses may have of diseases such as polio and measles. There is as yet no COVID-19 pandemic, and the consequent lockdown, has people. similar features to SARS-CoV-2 (such as the first severe vaccine for the coronavirus, so getting to herd immunity been to the livelihoods of the young working popula- The recession precipitated by COVID-19 has been acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) virus of 2003 or without a new and effective treatment could mean many tion, especially those in the lower income groups. Even much worse than the previous recessions, says the report, other coronaviruses). In New York, studies were conduc- more infections and many more deaths. as countries and international agencies struggle to get predicting long-term wage losses especially for those who ted among people going to supermarkets. In Wuhan, True, there are many diseases without a vaccine or an estimate of the extent of working hours reduced, the will be graduating from school or university this year. studies were conducted among people in hospitals. These cure. But a lot is known about them. COVID-19 is a new quantum of salaries trimmed and the number of jobs According to the fourth edition of the ILO Monitor do not represent the whole population. In other cities, disease. There are about 7.5 billion people in the world. lost, early reports by the International Labour Organ- “COVID-19 and the World of Work,” this section is likely serology surveys are finding much smaller shares of Even if the possibility of death from COVID-19 is 1 per isation (ILO) suggest that globally, the young popula- to face intense competition for fewer jobs. people with antibodies. Even in hotspots with declining cent, that still means a large number of deaths. As in war tion (representing the “lockdown generation”) has Nearly 94 per cent of the world’s workers live in or flattened curves, the current waves of infection may situations, a successful outcome is tied to our ability to been hit the hardest. The ILO, which has been monit- countries that have a record of workplace closures. There have only infected the super-vulnerable, and many popu- predict the behaviour of the enemy, to evade the enemy oring the labour market situation since the onset of the has been a 10.7 per cent decline in the hours of work, lation groups may not yet have been exposed to the virus. and, finally, to conquer the enemy. For now, we do not COVID-19 pandemic, has called for large-scale and equivalent to 305 million full-time jobs. However, the Therefore, what is needed are studies that use these tests know what direction this virus is taking. Countries that urgent policy responses, including macroeconomic in- report states that intensive testing of people for to examine a cross section of a population, giving equal opened up after successfully controlling the first wave, opportunity for all segments of the population (rich and including Singapore, China, Japan and South Korea, poor, old and young, good and bad neighbourhoods) as have all experienced repeat outbreaks. While we should was done for AIDS. These are called serology surveys and rejoice in any pause in outbreaks, that should not lead to take time to conduct. complacency. Therefore, being cautious with COVID-19 Variations in herd immunity will take time to study. would be the best stratsegy for survival. Being cautious For example, in crowded situations such as pilgrimage means universal face covering, physical distancing and sites and sports events or movie theatres, one infected minimising crowding situations. These are not magic person would remain in close proximity to multiple con- bullets, but together, they can help. २ tacts for extended periods of time as opposed to an Shahul Hameed Ebrahim, MD, MSc, PhD, is an Amer- infected person passing a fellow walker on the street for a ican medical epidemiologist of Indian descent affiliated few seconds. A hospital waiting room with a mix of with the University of Sciences, Techniques and Techno- people with diabetes and hypertension is different from logy of Bamako, Mali. He has advised governments on an airport waiting room. Putting together the currently pandemic mitigation—the 2009 influenza pandemic, available data and lack of evidence on additional factors, the Middle East respiratory syndrome in Saudi Arabia herd immunity protection is unlikely to be a reasonable and the Ebola outbreaks in Congo (2012) and in West option in the near future. Africa (2014-15)—and authored over 80 scientific pa- pers, including on COVID-19. V ACCINE FRONT RUNNERS N.M. Mujeeb Rahman, MBBS, MS, is a former medical Therefore, the second and only hope is a vaccine. Many superintendent of MES Medical College, Malappuram, promising vaccines are undergoing trials. There are 26 Kerala, and director and consultant surgeon at Nizar HULASI KAKKAT HULASI front runners (https://www.the-scientist.com/news- Hospital, Malappuram, and is a member of an interna- T opinion/covid-19-vaccine-frontrunners-67382) and nu- tional coalition of COVID-19 researchers advancing MIGRANT WORKERS near Ernakulam Town railway station on June 14. The average age of the migrant worker in India merous others listed on the clinical trials website, which multi-country studies on mitigation. rendered jobless by the lockdown is between 25 and 40.

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 20 21 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 COVID-19 infection and tracing the contacts of the infec- Examining data from 64 countries, the report found ted, as recommended by the World Health Organisation, that prior to the crisis, the hourly earnings for prime-age will reduce labour market disruptions. According to the workers was, on an average, 71 per cent more than what report, this strategy has not only helped countries utilise their younger counterparts earned. Compared to prime- information better and rely less on restrictive measures age workers, younger people were mostly employed in but also increased the level of public confidence which is low-paid sectors that had been hit hard by COVID-19. necessary for economic activity. These sectors included food, accommodation and retail The report underscores the fact that the younger and wholesale businesses. As supply chains of manufac- generation has been disproportionately affected by work- turing had been disrupted by the pandemic, young place closures. Regionally, the Americas, Europe and people who were employed in low-end supply chain jobs Central Asia present the largest losses in terms of the bore the brunt of the job losses, with their meagre savings number of hours worked. Globally, young people have rendering them even more vulnerable to economic endured multiple shocks such as disruption of education, shocks. employment, training, incomes and job prospects. Ac- The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been cording to the report, 178 million young workers globally, reported as high in wholesale and retail trade; repair of or four in 10 young workers, were employed in sectors motorcycles and vehicles; manufacturing; real estate, that have now been hard hit. About 77 per cent of young business and administrative activities and accommoda- workers were in informal jobs, as compared with 60 per tion and food services; medium-high in transport, stor- cent of adult workers. Technical, educational and voca- age and communication, art, entertainment and tional and on-the-job training has been severely disrup- recreation sectors; medium in mining and quarrying, ted by the pandemic. According to a joint survey by the financial, insurance services and construction; and low to ILO, UNESCO and the World Bank, 98 per cent of the medium in agriculture, forestry and fishing. The impact respondents reported complete or partial closure of on economic output has been low in economic sectors OSLAN RAHMAN/AFP OSLAN training and vocational schools. Over two-thirds of such R like education, compulsory social security, health, utilit- training is provided through online mechanisms. The ies, public administration and defence. For young wo- lack of digital skills among teachers and students has AT THE FOOD COURT in the recently reopened Marina two countries that undertook extensive testing and tra- men, the double burden of paid and unpaid work has severely impacted educational as well as vocational skill Bay Sands shopping mall in Singapore on June 19. cing, the costs amounted to less than one per cent of their intensified with the shutting down of schools and child- training in low-income countries. Owing to a weak infra- According to the ILO Monitor, young people employed in GDP. The report suggests that widespread contact tra- care centres. structure and limited access to the Internet and Informa- low-end supply chain jobs in food and retail businesses cing programmes could also provide temporary employ- Nearly 70 per cent of international migrants are tion Technology (IT), only a minuscule proportion of bore the brunt of job losses owing to the pandemic. ment opportunities in a depressed labour market aged under 30 and have been unable to get re-em- low-income countries had shifted to online teaching, scenario. ployed or reach their home destinations. In India, too, preferring instead to listen to television or radio broad- loss of working hours, the report infers that testing and While recommending that high-income countries the average age of the migrant worker rendered jobless casts or use traditional teaching methods. School clos- tracing was associated with a reduction in loss of working help low-income countries with testing and tracing, the by the blanket lockdown is between 25 and 40. Till ures were reported to be the maximum in Africa. hours by as much as 50 per cent. Effective testing and report also notes that the implementation of this strategy date, there has been no official estimate of the job A joint survey by the ILO and partners of the Global tracing provide valuable information and enable the au- must take into account the data privacy of workers, which losses by the Indian government. India is the only Initiative on Decent Jobs for Youth has reported that thorities to take proper policy decisions on public health must be protected at all times. Public support is crucial country where migrant workers were compelled to since the onset of COVID-19, one in six young people had measures and economic interventions. for the effectiveness of this strategy, and information on leave for their homes in the villages, undertaking ardu- stopped working, and not of their own volition. Among The report cites the example of the Republic of South the COVID-19 infection should be collected only to the ous journeys across the country on foot after the the employed youth, a 23 per cent reduction in the hours Korea, where an effective testing and tracing strategy led extent of its relevance to the occupational safety and blanket lockdown was announced. of work was reported. As many as 10 per cent of young to lower probability, duration and severity of confine- health of workers. Also, this data must be “processed students reported that they were unlikely to complete ment and lockdown which, in effect, reduced the eco- lawfully and fairly” so that it is not used to discriminate S UGGESTED INTERVENTIONS their studies, while half of those surveyed reported that nomic toll of these measures. By generating more precise against workers or jeopardise their employment Policy interventions including macroeconomic strategies their studies had been delayed. knowledge about the pandemic, these measures also prospects. are desperately needed, says the report. Some of these managed to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on The COVID-19 pandemic struck at a time when em- interventions include employment-intensive pro- A NXIETY AND DEPRESSION consumption and production. As a result of reduced risks ployment opportunities for the youth (15-24 years) were grammes targeting the young; social protection and sup- More than half of young people surveyed had become and growing public confidence, economic activity was already stagnant. The global youth unemployment rate port for educational skills and development, and vulnerable to anxiety or depression since the onset of the resumed. An efficient testing, tracing and isolating before the global economic crisis of 2007 was at 12.3 per improving the rights of workers and their workplace COVID-19 pandemic. One in six young people surveyed mechanism will help companies better organise work- cent, which was less than the unemployment rate of 13.6 conditions. had stopped working, and 60 per cent of women and 53 place activities such as work shifts and sick leave replace- per cent in 2019. In 2019, 75 per cent or more of young One positive intervention suggested by the report is young men in this survey viewed their career prospects ments and initiate precautionary measures while workers were engaged in informal jobs in South Asia and the mitigation of long-term job losses for young people by with uncertainty and fear. Young people who had discon- maintaining operational continuity. Africa, rendering them vulnerable to economic crises and adopting the European Union’s counter-cyclical policy of tinued working ran the highest risk of anxiety and In many countries, including India, the levels of test- shocks. The COVID-19 pandemic has only worsened this a Youth Guarantee Scheme targeted at employment re- depression. ing and tracing have been abysmally low. As a result, situation in terms of overall job losses, collapse of busi- covery. As most countries struggle with economic recov- According to the ILO Monitor, much of the loss in governments have had to rely on containment and lock- nesses and failure of startups, not to mention labour rights. ery, the negative effects of job losses on the unemployed working hours is owing to the introduction of public down measures and work-from-home directives as a Before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, labour un- will be mitigated to an extent in countries that have a health measures such as “strict confinement” and lock- strategy to contain the coronavirus spread. The ILO der-utilisation rates were already high among women, a strong tradition of welfarism and social protection. The downs, whereas the testing and tracing strategy was seen Monitor records that there is increasing evidence that the trend which the ILO Monitor says is likely to worsen. effects are likely to be more adverse in countries where to reduce labour market disruption. Assessing the rela- costs of testing and tracing are, in fact, only a small Women employed in the garment industries in low- and infrastructure is highly privatised and formal employ- tionship between the testing and tracing strategy and the fraction of the economic costs that containment entail. In middle- income countries have been the most affected . ment is negligible. २

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 22 23 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 COVER STORY fact fallen. This deceleration in revenue growth occurred levels of the Centre’s direct tax to GDP ratio and rising in a year for which only about a week fell in the lockdown income inequality in the country. Net direct tax collec- period, so the serious revenue shortfall is a pre- tion, or gross direct taxes adjusted for tax refunds, de- COVID-19 phenomenon and cannot be blamed on the clined in nominal terms from Rs.11.36 lakh crore in sudden stop induced by the pandemic. 2018-19 to Rs.10.49 lakh crore in 2019-20, or by close to Given the government’s obsession with realising un- 8 per cent. The factor dominantly responsible for this realistic fiscal deficit targets, this compression of revenue decline was the decision, in the midst of a demand reces- growth has meant that the Centre’s dependence on ex- sion, to seek to stimulate the economy with corporate tax A neoliberal blow ceptional transfers from the Reserve Bank of India and concessions announced in September 2019. on receipts from the sale of public assets to meet even That “stimulus” took the form of a huge reduction in The fiscal crisis that the Central government is trapped in cannot be routine expenditures has increased significantly. When the corporate tax rate from 30 per cent (or an effective blamed on the COVID-19 pandemic, since the revenue shortfall is these “exceptional” sources of receipts fall short of expect- rate of 34.61 per cent after surcharge and cess) to 22 per ations, as happened in 2019-20, meeting even unambi- cent (or an effective rate of 25.17 per cent) for domestic primarily a result of the government’s neoliberal measures such as tious expenditure plans requires window-dressing companies that do not avail of tax incentives or exemp- budgetary figures. On the ground, capital expenditures tions. New domestic manufacturing companies incor- business-friendly taxation stance and the GST regime. BY C.P. CHANDRASEKHAR and welfare expenditures, including on health, would porated on or after October 1, 2019, will pay corporation have fallen even relative to woefully inadequate budget- tax at the reduced rate of 15 per cent (which is an effective INDIA’S CENTRAL GOVERNMENT WAS FACED Rs.16.8 lakh crore. This implies that the actual figure is ary allocations. rate of 17.01 per cent) so long as they do not avail them- with a fiscal crisis even prior to the COVID-19-induced more than 14 per cent short of projections in the first selves of incentives and exemptions. And the minimum lockdown. Provisional estimates from the Controller Budget of the second Narendra Modi government and 9 S HRINKING TAX REVENUE alternative tax (MAT), applicable to companies that do General of Accounts of actual revenues collected in finan- per cent short of the projection (revised estimates) for Underlying this fiscal mess is the failure to mobilise avail themselves of incentives and exemptions, has been cial year 2019-20, or the fiscal year that ended March financial year 2019-20 in the Budget presented by Fin- adequate resources through taxation at a time when the reduced from 18.5 per cent to 15 per cent. This is a huge 2020, point to an erosion of revenue receipts of critical ance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman this February. need is for substantial additional resource mobilisation. bonanza, which dominantly explains the contraction in proportions. As compared with the original budget es- The revenue shortfall has meant that the Centre’s A casualty of the business-friendly taxation stance of the direct tax revenues. timate of Rs.19.6 lakh crore, and a revised estimate (or revenue receipts grew by just 2.9 per cent in 2019-20 National Democratic Alliance government has been a The second contributor to the compression in tax late-in-year projection) of a lower Rs.18.5 lakh crore, when compared with the previous fiscal year, which im- substantial loss of buoyancy with respect to direct tax revenues is the limited buoyancy of indirect tax revenues actual revenue receipts are currently placed at just plies that real revenues (adjusted for inflation) have in generation, with tax revenues falling despite the low garnered through the Centre from the goods and services tax (GST) imposts. In fact, in four of 12 months, Central revenues from GST in 2019-20 were lower than the sum collected during the corresponding months of the previ- ous year. Overall, the Centre’s revenues from GST rose by 8 per cent in 2019-20, despite the lower-than-projected base level in 2018-19. To recall, the government had promised States a 14 per cent annual increase in revenues from a base-level GST estimate, failing which they were to be compensated with collections from a special cess. This suggests that, at the very least, the Centre expected a 14 per cent growth in GST revenue. The 8 per cent realised in 2019-20 was, therefore, way short of expected revenue growth. The GST regime was launched in July 2017. So the argument that teething troubles and initial glitches in the implementation of a new “game-changing” measure are responsible for shortfalls in GST receipts no longer applies. Clearly, the GST regime has proved a failure, even while it has substantially curtailed the lim- ited space that was available for States to increase their own tax revenues, in pursuit of an unrealisable “one nation, one tax” goal. That failure is now haunting the Centre as well, besides severely damaging the fiscal posi- tion of State governments. The poor performance with respect to corporate tax revenue generation and generation of revenues from GST, which is a second-best adaptation of value- added taxation within a federal polity, is a fallout of the shift to a neoliberal policy regime. A defining feature of such a

UNION Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman chairs the GST Council meeting through videoconferencing from her TI

P office in New Delhi on June 12.

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 24 25 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 sustain expenditure, however much curtailed. The nature of VAT helps in such a context. As an indirect tax, VAT is not directly levied on the buyer and the legal liability is that of the producer, so it is less visible. Moreover, since VAT is imposed at each stage of the production process, it gets incorporated into costs so that the final consumer would only note the tax paid on value added at the final stage. This helps to legitimise a shift from progressive direct taxation, especially corporate and income taxes, to regressive indirect taxation. All of this favours a shift to VAT under neoliberal regimes, which partly explains its history. It implicitly serves as one more instrument to redistribute incomes from ordin-

ETTY IMAGES/ISTOCKPHOTO ETTY ary citizens, including the poor, to the very rich. The G problem in India, however, is that the GST version of ‘The GST regime has proved VAT does not work well. Once these neoliberal shifts on the taxation front a failure, even when it has begin to adversely affect government revenues, within a neoliberal fiscal framework of caps on fiscal deficits or curtailed the space for spending financed with borrowing, a corollary is sluggish government spending and lower growth. This had begun States to increase their own to manifest itself in India since 2016, with growth in year 2019-20 (pre-COVID-19 lockdown) now estimated at tax revenues...’ 4.2 per cent, the lowest since the new GDP series was launched. That sets up a feedback loop, with low reven- ues which curtail government spending, reducing regime is a lenient corporate tax structure, ostensibly growth, which then further reduce revenues for any given aimed at incentivising private investors and unleashing level of fiscal buoyancy, or responsiveness of revenues the animal spirits they are presumed to possess. That also growth to income growth. Revenue growth shrinks both explains why when a demand recession is dampening because neoliberal fiscal reform reduces fiscal buoyancy investment and curtailing growth, the government de- and because growth itself begins to fall. cides not to spend to revive demand but hands over These trends have other external effects. Neoliberal money to the corporate sector with tax concessions, governments seek to address sluggish revenue growth which firms will not divert to investment in depressed with the short-sighted measure of selling profitable, market conditions. revenue-earning public assets to obtain what are eu- The GST, too, is a neoliberal measure. The United phemistically termed “non-debt creating capital re- States had a role to play in the spread of value-added tax ceipts”. As the fiscal crisis intensifies, the dependence (VAT). The [Carl] Shoup mission to occupied Japan on privatisation receipts increases. The Central gov- after the Second World War argued for its introduction. ernment pursued that trajectory successfully in 2018- Subsequently the United States Agency for International 19 when, as compared with budgeted receipts of Development promoted VAT and sought to popularise Rs.80,000 crore from privatisation, the government the system through financial and technical assistance to actually managed to mobilise close to Rs.95,000 crore, developing countries. All through that period, the U.S. hawking profitable assets and riding on a buoyant government was unwilling to implement the system at stock market. But as growth falters, so does investor home. Later the World Bank and the International Mon- enthusiasm for public equity or the firms themselves. etary Fund played a role in pushing the system. More In 2019-20, the government had hiked the budgeted than half the countries that introduced VAT in the 20 receipts from privatisation to Rs.1,05,000 crore. But as years starting 1991 did so on the basis of advice and the economy slowed it managed to mobilise only a little assistance from the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department. more than Rs.50,000 crore. Thus, the spread of VAT does seem to have a lot to do with The picture is now clear. As the government gave up the transition to market fundamentalism and market- its role as development leader within a neoliberal growth friendly polices starting in the 1980s. strategy, growth rode on a credit bubble. With that This is understandable. A neoliberal strategy sub- bubble bursting and precipitating non-performing assets stantially reduces taxes on trade. It also requires in- in the banking system, the credit-led boom gave way to a centivising the private sector with light-touch taxation of slowdown. The neoliberal fiscal response curtailed gov- higher incomes and corporate and financial profits. It ernment revenues and expenditures further. Growth fell also emphasises the need for financial consolidation and sharply and so did revenues. In the event, the govern- reining in public debt. All of this necessitates reliance on ment is trapped in a fiscal crisis and the economy is in forms of indirect taxation other than taxes on trade to low-level disequilibrium. २

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 26 COVER STORY Burden on children With the closure of schools, relaxation in labour laws and migration of adult workers, child labour and exploitation of children are expected to rise exponentially. BY DIVYA TRIVEDI

WHEN STRINGENT LOCKDOWN MEASURES victims of human trafficking, in the wake of, and as an were announced in March to contain the pandemic, aftermath of, the COVID-19 pandemic and the resultant children living on the streets of Delhi took shelter in extended lockdown”. The BBA urged the government to parks, under flyovers, around railway stations, and in frame a policy to prevent trafficking and ensure rescue slums. Some were allowed to sleep indoors by their em- and rehabilitation of affected children and said child ployers. Most slept on half-empty stomachs. trafficking resulted in child labour and sex trafficking. Many children were also seen walking several kilo- The number of street children pushed into begging is metres with families. Some of them, it was feared, were likely to spike. Considering the deepening agrarian crisis, taken along by child traffickers. In the absence of any child labour is likely to be sourced from agricultural agency—government or non-governmental—to keep a households as well. The BBA has received information check on who went where, there was no way to track from multiple sources that traffickers have started ap- children's safety. proaching potential victims and their families and have As the lockdown began to be lifted, children were even started handing out advance payments for the back at the street signals, trying to sell pens and other children. wares. Desperate for money, one of them asked an activ- On June 8, a three-judge bench comprising Chief ist who was out to make an assessment, “Where have all Justice of India S.A. Bobde and Justices A.S. Bopanna the people gone?” They were also confused about why and Hrishikesh Roy issued notices to the Central and people were not rolling down their car windows any State governments and sought guidelines from the Na- more. The activist explained the pandemic situation to tional Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) to pre- them and told them they would not be able to make a vent child trafficking. The senior lawyer H.S. Phoolka living selling pens any more. “But they were so desperate and Solicitor General Tushar Mehta said in court that for money, I am worried they are easy prey for trafficking or sex work. Unless a concerted effort is made to reach out to them and take care of them, we might be staring at a very worrying situation,” said the activist on condition of anonymity. Some of the children bore marks of injuries which had been worsened in the absence of first aid. The administration’s law and order priority has com- pletely changed with the entire police force being diver- ted to the management of coronavirus cases. Even if one wanted to take a case of wrongdoing to the police, they were unlikely to attend to it, said Sanjay Gupta of Chetna, a non-governmental organisation (NGO) for street chil- dren. “Most of the labourers have left the cities, thereby creating a rise in demand for labour. Children would be easily available in slums as a replacement, and because of their poor bargaining capacity, would be hired as cheap or free labour. It could make them vulnerable to abuse and could lead to the creation of a new kind of modern slavery,” he told Frontline. USHIL KUMAR VERMA KUMAR USHIL The Bachpan Bachao Andolan (BBA), another NGO, S filed a writ petition in the Supreme Court seeking protec- A CHILD WORKER at a motorbike-cleaning shop in tion for children who were at risk of becoming “hapless New Delhi, on June 12.

27 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 they would work together and come up with suggestions Children were also involved in “worst forms of child on how to curb child labour. labour” including forced labour, bonded labour, prostitu- Ashok Kumar, convener at Campaign Against Child tion, pornography and trafficking of drugs. The total Labour (CACL), conducted a rapid assessment by inter- number of adolescent labourers (15-18 years) was 22.87 viewing 121 children from Chandauli in Uttar Pradesh. million. “Of these, 112 were in the labour net in home-based work, brick kilns and the garment industry. Forty-one per cent D ILUTION OF LABOUR LAWS of them were getting an honorarium or maintenance and Child Rights and You (CRY) cautioned that the demand only four of them received food support from the employ- for children in the agricultural sector, home-based enter- ers. In the absence of any reporting mechanism, the prises and small-scale businesses might increase in the children are especially vulnerable at this time. A new following days. Instead of providing protection from ex- group of children are now in begging and petty delivery- ploitation to adult and child workers, 11 States made based jobs,” he said. relaxations to the Factories Act, 1948, during the lock- The International Labour Organisation and down—Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, UNICEF had warned that millions of children would be Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pra- forced into child labour as family incomes dropped glob- desh, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha and Assam. Many of ally. The pandemic could reverse the gains made in the these States have a high burden of child and adolescent past 20 years to decrease child labour by 94 million, they labour, according to CRY. said. The relaxations include extension of a factory work- In April, child rights organisations Child Fund India, er’s daily shift from eight to 12 hours a day, six-day week, Plan India, Save the Children India, SOS Children’s Vil- limited time for rest, reduction in inspections and monit- lages of India, Terre des hommes and World Vision India oring by authorities, restricted grievance redress mech- asked the government to provide uninterrupted access to anisms and limited collective bargaining through labour AUL NORONHA AUL critical services for the most vulnerable children and unions. The International Labour Organisation (ILO) P their families. “To overcome the immediate and long- expressed concern as these relaxations violate ILO Con- A BOY in the western suburbs of Mumbai selling plastic bags to make ends meet, on June 12. term impact of the crisis, the government should ensure, vention 144, which calls for tripartite consultations on a priority basis, access to critical services such as among government, employers and workers. (FIRs) against employers. According to him, a family- cially the ones from marginalised households at this health care, nutrition, food security, mental health and While this was bad news for all labour, it might lead to centric approach would have to be adopted to deal with juncture. Protiva Kundu that the situation would have a psychosocial support, protection against violence and an increase in hazardous work, forced labour, debt bond- the problem of child labour as “a child-centric approach greater effect on girls and disabled children. Even if ensure social protection and child-sensitive cash transfer age and human trafficking for children and adolescents could only work in countries that had institutional sup- schools reopen, parents would not have the money to pay initiatives to the most vulnerable children and poorest working in factories and industrial setups, said Rahul port systems in place”. He suggested that civil society fees and would instead require the child to support the families,” they said. Sapkal, Assistant Professor, Centre for Labour Studies, should use existing laws efficiently to address the issue of family. Figures released by Childline 1098, the national Tata Institute of Social Sciences (TISS). Adolescent child labour. “We need to ensure that we are using the She said that there was an urgent need to track the helpline for children in India, gave an idea of the scale of workers would be especially vulnerable in the absence of existing laws, not sitting and feeling helpless. The num- children who had gone back to their villages and connect the problem. Within the first week of the lockdown, it adult labourers who had left for their home towns and ber of FIRs filed so far is extremely poor compared with them to community-level child protection mechanisms, received 92,000 SOS calls concerning children in dis- villages. Many of them might be forced to work for long the large number of child labourers in the country. including village child protection committees. Panchay- tress. Eleven per cent of the calls related to physical hours, in hazardous and often abusive environments, for Therefore, it is everyone’s responsibility to report and file ati Raj institutions and school management committees health, 8 per cent to child labour, 8 per cent to missing little or no pay, and often far from home. FIRs on child labour,” he said. must track every child in their village and ensure their and runaway children and 5 per cent to homelessness. It Rahul Sapkal said: “The changes in labour laws will safety, especially from trafficking, underage marriage was also called upon to intervene to prevent abuse, assist weaken enforcement mechanism, which may further in- C LOSURE OF SCHOOLS and forced labour. “The government should expand the children in distress and provide emotional support. In crease child labour amid this crisis. The child labour Sending children to school is considered an important coverage of the National Child Labour Project in all two months, it answered over 10 lakh calls and carried legislation needs to be revised as many aspects of climate preventive measure against child labour. But as schools districts which is currently operating in 323 districts and out over 50,000 interventions. From March to April, it change and hazardous industries are not yet incorpor- remain closed for the foreseeable future, children are spend on survey of identifying child labour. Also, it is prevented 898 child marriages from the 6,04,274 calls it ated into it. This revision must include revisiting the forced to stay at home, which increases their risk of high time to address dropouts in schools, and the govern- received concerning the problem. definition of what constitutes hazardous industries, getting pushed into the labour market. Given the loss of ment should expand RTE [Right to Education] Act up to Nobel Laureate Kailash Satyarthi, founder of BBA, keeping the developing capacities of children in mind.” income for families, it is likely that they will be engaged in class 12,” Protiva Kundu said. made a statement requesting two months’ amnesty from Speaking on a webinar organised by CRY, Priyank home-based or agricultural work. Moreover, out-of- Puja Marwaha, Chief Executive Officer, CRY, said prosecution for traffickers and employers of child labour Kanoongo, chairperson of NCPCR (National Commis- school children are at greater risk of getting caught up in that sometimes educated people also justified employing so that they could come forward and release children to sion for Protection of Child Rights), said that any organ- trafficking, begging, debt bondage and other indecent child labour on the grounds that the child got some food, the care of the State. Activists felt that such a move would ised sector industry that depended on the unorganised and exploitative work conditions. shelter or hourly education on the side. But the space of potentially let human rights abusers off the hook and sector, such as the automobile manufacturing industry, While efforts were made to continue education for child labour itself was damaging and harmful for all of lead to a further increase in cases of trafficking which the undoubtedly employed child labour, if not directly then children through remote teaching options such as online our future generations, she said. “I truly believe that only State would not be able to control. indirectly. He said unless and until the principal manu- classes, radio, television and so on, most children from when all Indians start believing that children below 18 According to Census 2011, the total number of child facturer was held accountable for the child labour em- poor families do not have access to these media. “Only 8 years should not have to work because they are poor or for labourers in India in the 5-14 age group was 10.11 million. ployed in the unorganised sector linked to their industry, per cent children have access to computer and internet. any other reason will we actually start changing the Of these, 4.35 million were categorised as main workers the chain of child labour “from Seelampur to Bawana to 24 per cent have smartphones,” said Protiva Kundu, situation. The advent of COVID-19 seems to be one and 5.76 million as marginal workers. Sixty-two per cent Moradabad” could not be abolished. Additional Coordinator- Research, Centre for Budget major contributing factor in the undoing of all efforts of child labourers were concentrated in agriculture, He stressed the need for civil society organisations to and Governance Accountability (CBGA). It is critical to made so far in reducing and ending child labour,” she forestry and fishing, followed by industries and services. press for the registration of first information reports ensure a continuation of education for all children, espe- said. २

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 28 29 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 COVER STORY treatment. Bodies piled up in mortuaries, while cremat- oriums and burial grounds were either not available or D ELHI non-functional. News reports pointed to a mismatch in COVID-19 fatality rates put out by the Delhi government and the hospitals, causing Kejriwal much embarrassment. How- ever, instead of correcting their data, the Delhi govern- ment took the shocking step of reducing the levels of testing. Bodies brought to hospitals were no longer to be In a mess tested for COVID-19 even if the persons had been found to be symptomatic. This decision not only violated World A sudden surge in the number of COVID-19 cases in June, the low Health Organisation (WHO) and Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) guidelines but also exposed levels of testing and the controversy over the non-availability of beds those handling the dead to the risk of contracting the expose the ineptness of the Delhi government’s handling of the virus. Thereafter, laboratories were told not to test asymptomatic persons regardless of their exposure to the pandemic. B Y DIVYA TRIVEDI risk of the virus. These orders led to a drastic fall in the number of tests conducted in June. .V. MOORTHY .V. Senior Congress leader Manish Tewari said he had to R DELHI’S COVID-19 OUTBREAK WENT FROM The absence of any mechanism to trace and isolate run from pillar to post to get his wife tested on the written MEDICAL staff with patients outside the Special COVID bad to worse in June, setting off alarm bells in the capit- infected persons and their primary contacts resulted in a advice of her doctors. “Despite growing up on a hospital Ward at the LNJP Hospital in New Delhi on June 1. al’s medical and political circles. Failure on several fronts, spurt in cases that soon became unmanageable. While campus and knowing every medical professional of con- especially with regard to the abysmally low levels of migrants in Delhi who left for their hometowns were said sequence, I had to move heaven and earth just to get my without. We are of the opinion that it is the need of the testing, has led to the situation getting out of control. By to have been responsible for a rise in cases in several wife tested. Fortunately, she tested negative,” Tewari hour that all the private hospitals in Delhi who are Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s own admission, cases States, the Delhi government itself showed no inclination tweeted, adding: “Delhi’s health systems are broken.” equipped with a lab to undertake COVID-19 test be are expected to spike to 5.5 lakh by end July, requiring to monitor or quarantine people entering the capital. By On June 9, Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia permitted to do the testing without any further loss of 80,000 beds. By mid June, more than half the available mid June, it became impossible to ignore the rising claimed that there was no community spread because time. This is all the more imperative as the Delhi govern- beds and ventilators in Delhi’s hospitals were already number of infections and deaths, as families of patients Central government officials had said so in a meeting ment has directed all private hospitals in Delhi to reserve occupied. were seen struggling between hospitals for beds and with the State Disaster Management Authority. Com- 20 per cent beds for admitting COVID-19 patients,” the munity transmission is declared when the source of the court said on June 6. infection in an infected person cannot be determined. On June 12, the Supreme Court pulled up the Delhi The same day, Delhi Health Minister Satyendar Jain said government for its low testing rates and mishandling of that in 50 per cent of cases the source of infection was COVID-19 patients and bodies of those who had died. It unknown. He added that only the Centre could declare slammed the government for a “horrendous” situation whether there was community transmission or not as it where COVID patients were being treated “worse than was a “technical term”. animals”, and asked Kejriwal to explain why testing had Delhi’s Lieutenant Governor, Anil Baijal, overturned dropped from 7,000 to 5,000 when Chennai and Mum- Kejriwal’s decision to not provide healthcare in govern- bai had increased their testing from 16,000 to 17,000. ment-run hospitals to patients from outside Delhi and On June 14, Home Minister Amit Shah met Kejriwal did so on the grounds that the decision went against the and promised initiatives to prop up Delhi’s fight against constitutional guarantee of right to life and healthcare. the coronavirus, including 500 railway coaches with The National Human Rights Commission issued no- 8,000 beds, a supply of oxygen cylinders, ventilators and tices to the Delhi government and the Union Health pulse oximeters. A committee would be formed to Ministry on the complaint of Congress leader Ajay provide 60 per cent of the beds reserved for coronavirus Maken, who pointed out that around 70 per cent of patients in private hospitals at a low rate and testing dedicated beds in Delhi were lying vacant even as pa- would be doubled immediately, Amit Shah said. After six tients were struggling to avail themselves of beds. He days, the tests would be increased by three times, he stated in the complaint that Delhi has a robust hospital added. To improve contact mapping in containment infrastructure of 57,194 beds, along with a significant zones, a comprehensive health survey of every person presence of Central government hospitals, but only 12 per would be done from door to door. Currently there are 242 cent of Delhi government’s, 8 per cent of the Central containment zones in Delhi. government’s and 7 per cent of private hospital beds were “Extremely productive meeting between Delhi govt occupied and being used to treat COVID-19 patients. and Central govt. Many key decisions taken. We will fight against corona together,” tweeted Kejriwal. J UDICIARY INTERVENES With the number of cases touching 41,182 and the The Delhi High Court came down heavily on the Delhi number of deaths at 1,328 by June 15, Kejriwal quelled government’s handling of the pandemic. “It appears that rumours and clarified that there would be no extension of AMAL NARANG AMAL K Delhi is fast heading towards becoming the coronavirus the lockdown, essentially placing the burden of safety on OUTSIDE Punjabi Bagh cremation ground, New Delhi’s first COVID-19-only burning ghat, on June 14. capital of the country, an epithet the city can well do individuals. २

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 30 31 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 COVER STORY sources many are yet to act on this. There is also a ceiling on charges for these beds. M AHARASHTRA On the other hand, there is a shortage of beds, The lifting of restrictions patients dying because a doctor could not see them or because they were denied entry into hospitals, or be- in Mumbai has highlighted cause of a lack of oxygen support systems and of ventil- ators. There is also a shortage of ward boys, kitchen the city’s dependence staff, cleaners and even nurses. Many hospitals are working with only 40 per cent of their normal staff on workers from the rest Figures in dispute complement. There seem to be coordination issues between private of India. The Maharashtra government claims an impressive recovery rate, but hospitals and the BMC. The State is totally focussed on setting up jumbo facilities over which it has complete lem of unpredictability of the virus, Chief Secretary Ajoy the opposition says confusion prevails even over the number of deaths. control. As many as 8,000 new beds in these facilities will Mehta says that infection rate has plateaued in the city. add to the 7,000 beds in public hospitals and 23,000 in But with the country opening up and travel being B Y LYLA BAVADAM private ones currently in use for COVID cases. allowed it is possible that Mumbai’s plateau may become The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been carrying a rising arc again. This has already been proved in re- out its own independent research and says that an addi- verse. Those that left Mumbai for their home States took “IT IS TIME TO UNDERSTAND AND ACCEPT self-quarantine and be educated on when and if to tional 15,000 beds can be requisitioned from private the virus back with them. Dadra and Nagar Haveli, that COVID is here to stay for some time. We cannot move to hospital. This will free up beds. And make the hospitals and there is no need to build jumbo isolation Mizoram, Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim say how long, but we will have to learn new ways to live best use of medical personnel. We’ll control it through centres. were COVID-free until their residents returned home. with it.” This is what a Mumbai municipal official said good, accessible hospital care,” says the same official. Another complication confounds this forest of num- on condition of anonymity. “Numbers will increase Accessible medical care has been the stumbling bers. The BMC has been accused of fudging the number D EBATE ON LOCKDOWN especially after the lockdown is called off because block so far. On the one hand, private hospitals have of COVID deaths. Former Chief Minister Devendra Fad- This has revived the lockdown debate again. Said a bur- people will mingle more. And we have increased test- been brought into the COVID treatment system, navis of the BJP wrote to Chief Minister Uddhav Thack- eaucrat in Mantralaya: “There are two views on the lock- ing so more cases will be discovered,” he said. thereby enhancing medical facilities. The Brihanmum- eray saying 950 deaths had been covered up and not down. One is that we created a false sense of hope and The city was doing relatively well, he said, pointing bai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has said that if shown as COVID deaths. An investigation is on. people expected that at the end of the lockdown the virus out that the March and April predictions for COVID private hospitals do not fully turn into COVID care Meanwhile, from the point of view of the average would have vanished. Frankly I doubt that anyone was so cases were higher than the actual numbers. He drew facilities, they need to reserve 80 per cent of their beds citizen, there is a need to know when things will return to foolish to think the virus would disappear. The second attention to a comparison between the numbers of for COVID patients. However, according to BMC normal. While the municipal source reiterates the prob- view is that when it opened up the virus would get us positive cases, recoveries and deaths. Until June 13, anyway so what was the point of the restrictions. Critics Maharashtra had 1,01,141 positive cases. Of this, quote the Swedish government’s chosen path, but that is 47,796 persons have recovered and 3,717 died. not relevant to the Indian situation.” It took 95 days for the number of cases to touch one “The lockdown gave people an understanding of the lakh after the first case in the State was discovered on gravity of the situation. It also slowed down the spread of March 9. Officials say that Maharashtra’s corona curve the virus. There are models that prove this. A group of going up slowly can be attributed to the precautions scientists [Indian Scientists’ Response to COVID-19] taken by the government. They compare it with New has estimated that the lockdown has prevented 8,000 to York where cases shot up to one lakh in 22 days, the 32,000 fatalities. NITI Aayog estimates that 37,000 to United Kingdom where it went up in 60 days, and Italy 2,10,000 deaths were prevented,” the official said. Indian and Spain where it crossed the one-lakh mark in 63 Scientists’ Response to COVID-19 is a voluntary group of days. concerned scientist citizens who have come together to Maharashtra’s recovery rate is 47.03 per cent and discuss the rapidly evolving situation and the need for the mortality rate is 3.07 per cent. This high recovery science communication. rate has encouraged the thinking that there must be The lifting of restrictions in Mumbai has highlighted many people who have (or had) the virus and recover the city’s dependence on workers from the rest of India. without even knowing they had it. So, logic points to a The very people the city was eager to transport back are new direction for action—focus on reducing the fatal- the ones who are desperately required now. ities by caring for the severely infected and thereby Taxis which are allowed to ply are scarce because bringing the situation under control. most of the drivers have gone back. Shops can stay open “Our practice has been to trace, test and isolate longer but do not because of a shortage of staff. The same and we still continue to do that, but there’s a change goes for house help, vegetable and newspaper vendors, now. We will be focussing on preventing deaths of and so on. those who have been severely affected by the virus. So, With no earnings and no way to pay their rents during those with breathing difficulties should be the ones the lockdown the daily wagers had to leave. The bureau- that get into hospitals. Those with symptoms need to crat says that if States had been given some warning of the lockdown “lives of people would not have been im- A NEW isolation centre at St. Xavier’s College in Mumbai on pacted in the way they were. It was cruel to declare a

UNIT PARANJPE/AFP UNIT २ June 17. P lockdown within hours.”

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 32 33 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 COVER STORY and ensure greater focus on combating the pandemic, the Yogi Adityanath-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) U TTAR PRADESH government in Uttar Pradesh was relentlessly pursu- ing its self-congratulatory publicity drives. A day after this warning there was much propaganda in the media and the government publicity machinery on how the Chief Minister had become a messiah of the children of migrant labourers as he had sanctioned a dole of Rs.1,000 to boys and Rs.1,200 to girls. The huge rise in High on hype fatalities in the first 10 days of June was explained away as something caused by the people’s casual attitude towards Unlock 1.0. Throughout the first 10 days of The Yogi Adityanath government steps up its self-promotion campaign June the spurt in new COVID-19 cases was at a steady 5 per cent, as high as in Delhi and Tamil Nadu, rated as rather than mobilise resources to defeat the virus. the worst affected States. B Y VENKITESH RAMAKRISHNAN A number of senior officials in various departments of the State government, including Health and Home Affairs, point out in private that one of the major reasons for the spurt was the colossal lack of basic health infra- structure across the State. But in their public statements, government representatives, including bureaucrats, highlight the casual public reaction to Unlock 1.0. TI

A case in point is the statement of Dr Ashok Shukla, P Chief Medical Officer (CMO) of Kanpur. Talking to the CHIEF MINISTER Yogi Adityanath interacts with doctors media, he pointed out that while there had been two case and health staff during his visit at a hospital in Azamgarh peaks in the past for diverse reasons, the surge in early on June 8. June was basically because of the unrestricted movement of people following the easing of the lockdown. During a stringent lockdown it was easier to trace and track the Uttar Pradesh was at its peak, their contribution to the infection. Now it was becoming extremely difficult. Dur- new cases was above 50 per cent. But another nuance of ing a lockdown there was limited movement of people the June data causes serious concern. Out of the 321 and people remembered every single place they had vis- deaths reported in the State between June 1 and 10, ited and person they had come in contact with. But now approximately 65 per cent—as many as 209—were of they were unable to tell everything. In a recent instance, people in the 21-60 age group, many of them without one person infected as many as 80 people. Officials of known comorbidities. This flies in the face of the widely Noida and Ghaziabad districts have also blamed the accepted assessment that healthy youngsters are at lesser spurt in infection in their districts to the movement of risk from COVID-19 than elderly people with long- people from Delhi. State Surveillance Officer Vikasendu standing morbidities. Around 31.5 per cent of the deaths, Agarwal said that in these districts the spillover from 101, were of persons above the age of 60, while 3.5 per Delhi was adding to the case load. cent, 11, were of persons under 20 years. However, there was a silver lining in the COVID-19 According to a senior State Health Ministry official, data tabulated in early June, in the form of one aspect of the exact percentage of the deceased without comorbidit- new infections. This showed that the share of inter-State ies in the age group of 21 to 60 has not been quantified migrants in cases reported “since the beginning of June and unless it is done properly it cannot be gauged how far had come down to roughly 26 per cent”. In May, when the the early June experience of Uttar Pradesh repudiates the TI P reverse migration of labourers from the big cities to rural generally held view on the connection between COVID-19 and comorbidities. As one who has consist- ON JUNE 11, IN A VIDEOCONFERENCE WITH A CONDUCTOR issues tickets to passengers inside a ently flagged the long-standing deficiencies in Uttar Pra- the Chief Secretaries and Health Secretaries of the States, Uttar Pradesh Roadways bus after it resumed services, in desh’s public health system, he is not sure whether the Union Cabinet Secretary Rajiv Gauba warned that five Mathura on June 1. current government will take up an evaluation earnestly. States would face a critical shortfall in ICU beds and “The huge rise in fatalities in “At the moment, there is a huge publicity drive promot- ventilators between June and August in the battle against rate (percentage of samples tested returning positive) ing the so-called dynamism with which the the self- COVID-19. In other words, these States would be found recorded a steady surge. Gauba’s presentation further June was explained away as purportedly ascetic Chief Minister is battling the wanting in providing care to those who fell seriously ill pointed out that the national Case Fatality Rate (CFR) COVID-19 crisis even as cases and fatalities keep mount- with the deadly infection. Uttar Pradesh was one of the remained stable. Sixty nine districts spread across 13 something caused by the ing. After all is said and done, herd immunity will arrive, States identified by the Cabinet Secretary, along with States had CFRs around 5 per cent, rated as very high. Of give or take a few thousand deaths, seems to be the Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi and Gujarat. All these these districts, 11 are in Uttar Pradesh. people’s casual attitude primary attitude of the self-promotion team in the Chief States were marked as having extreme limitations in Even as the country’s top bureaucrat flagged these Minister’s Office in Lucknow,” the veteran officer told relation to hospital inventory even as the confirmation concerns and practically asked the five States to buck up towards Unlock 1.0.” Frontline. २

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 34 35 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 COVER STORY this option better than having an en) something that the government does tire paddy crop ruined with unskilled not know.... P UNJAB labour. “Two points emerge here from The contrast to the time when what I call ‘cognitive invisibility’ of millions of migrant labourers left the urban poor in dominant con- Punjab for their home towns in Ut- sciousness. Firstly, poor people are tar Pradesh and Bihar could not be not ‘people’ like us. We see them more marked. Then they were left to physically, but as ‘labour’ not fend for themselves by the Central ‘people’. And the government does Migrants return and State governments and their not seem to see them as ‘citizens’ employers. either.... So in the addresses of the Professor Maitrayee Chaudhuri Prime Minister we see that the ad- Factories in Hoshiarpur, Ludhiana and Barnala and farms across of Jawaharlal Nehru University’s dressee is the urban middle class. Punjab are swinging back into action as workers return from their School of Social Sciences says, “A This is true cognitive invisibility at crisis usually exposes the hidden work. Until they spilled out onto the FP home towns and villages. B Y ZIYA US SALAM structure of a society. The pandemic A streets, it did not strike anyone. has revealed it in a dramatic fashion. PUNJAB Health Minister Balbir Singh Secondly, in India this attitude, It is important, however, not to Sidhu. what was termed as ‘the middle class AT A TIME WHEN MOST STATES ARE REELING workers reached Hoshiarpur and Barnala, hoping to re- ‘blame everybody’ for this mess or ‘so- secession from poor Indians’ has under the aftermath of the large-scale migration of urban sume work as factory workers. Unlike the lucky few who ciety’ at large. The migrants too are part of our society. grown and flourished since the 1990s.” labour, Punjab is faced with the challenge of ‘reverse arrived by air, they took the long road back to their Blaming everyone amounts to blaming nobody. All coun- It is this middlc class that has brought migrant labour migration’. The labourers who had migrated back home workplaces, followed by a two-week quarantine period. tries are battling this enormous crisis. But we did not see back to looms and farms. This seems a good-for-all solu- to Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh following the abrupt The labourers, who realise that they have an edge, are such visuals from anywhere else. The reckless and callous tion on paper, but it exposes the hidden crevices of a announcement of the lockdown in March-end, and en- demanding anything up to Rs.6,000 an acre for paddy- state decision to give four hours to pack up for a lockdown society that looks at men/women as labour or mere dured untold hardships to reach their home towns and sowing, in contrast to the Rs.2,700 to Rs.3,000 they were resulted in this. The average urban middle-class person statistics rather than as people. “They are ‘labour’, instru- villages, are now beginning to trickle back to farms, just paid earlier. may or may not be aware that lockdown has very different mental for their business, industry or agriculture, to in time for the sowing of paddy in the State. While many The farm owners remain hopeful of striking a deal implications for different sections of people. But the state is function and profit. The idea of humanitarianism like the have boarded buses on their own to arrive in time for between Rs.3,500 and Rs.3,700, though they say even this supposed to know. It is in the business of governance. That idea of fellow citizenship is dead.” paddy-sowing and to resume work in woollens-manufac- will escalate their costs substantially. Still they consider our cities run on the labour of poor migrants should not be However, it is not as if only the farm or business turing units, others have been luckier. Their travel ex- owners stand to gain. The economy, which is staring at a penses are being borne by their employers in Punjab. The shortfall of up to 70 per cent, also gets the much-needed migrant labourers who could barely earn anything since shot in the arm. And the migrants, who could barely hope their arrival back home are understandably relieved to go to earn Rs.200 a day working on agricultural fields in back. It is not without its downside, though. Bihar are happier earning three times the amount. Recently there were reports of some wealthy farm How does one arrive at the complete picture with both owners and businessmen flying workers back at their the haves and the have-nots needing each other at this own expense. The labourers who had struggled to reach time? Prof. Chaudhuri says: “Migrants need the jobs. But home, often taking as many as five days on Shramik we need to phrase this in terms of democratic rights. Special trains (many had even walked for weeks to reach Right to employment, fair wages, livelihood, security... home), were understandably elated about their first air define our constitutional values. (So the ‘dues’ that em- travel. The news portal The Wire reported the efforts of a ployers owed the migrants was their ‘right’.) They are the Ludhiana-based blanket manufacturer, Bobby Jindal, core of a democracy. Democracy has been reduced to a who brought labourers back from Bihar so that his busi- PR exercise. Not adherence to the three basic core ideas ness could resume operations with skilled labour. of equality, liberty, fraternity.” She pointed that out in the Incidentally, June is the month when Ludhiana’s early weeks of the lockdown things were different as hosiery industry comes into its own with booming trade labour was considered expendable to middle-class re- in winter products. This year, the absence of skilled quirements in the short run. labour meant the factory and farm owners were left with “The migrants were not just forgotten, but beaten and no alternative but to bring the labourers back at their maltreated in fear of the ‘virus’. Old ideas of class, caste own expense. Most were happy to pay Rs.2,500 per and communities came to the fore. The tension between person for bus travel from Bihar to Punjab. They are now formal equalities granted by the Constitution and the providing the labourers with food and lodging, besides deep inequalities [that exist] were on display. Inequalit- the per-unit manufacturing charges of winter goods in ies won the day,” she said. urban areas, or in the case of farm labour the charges for That may be true. For the moment, though, Punjab paddy-sowing per acre. Around the same time, other could do with the helping hand provided by the return of workers. The factories in Hoshiarpur, Ludhiana and FARM workers planting paddy seedlings with the onset of Barnala and farms across the State are swinging back the Kharif season at Kajjal Majra village in Fatehgarh into action. Never mind the rising costs of the labour and

KHILESH KUMAR KHILESH २ Saheb district of Punjab, on June 10. A the consequent increase in cost of production.

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 36 37 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 COVER STORY reveals many shocking details. The State recorded the the focus has shifted to hospitals, disease management first double-digit number in deaths, 12, on May 28. But and recovery so that the State-level mortality rate of T AMIL NADU June has seen an all-round spike in terms of infection and around 1 to 1.5 per cent can be maintained. mortality. On June 5, 12 people died and the next day 19, Reports claim that hospitals in Chennai have started among whom eight had no other serious illnesses. As on overflowing with patients. The State government claims June 7, the death toll stood at 269; one of this was in the that 70,000 beds, apart from corona care centres, have 10-19 age group, four in the 20-29 age group, 17 in the been augmented to meet the rising demand. It says it has 30-39 age group, 31 in the 40-49 age group, 61 in the also undertaken a massive exercise to recruit doctors and 50-59 age group, 71 in the 60-69 age group, 65 in the paramedical staff, besides laboratory technicians and Dying young 70-79 age group, 17 in the 80-89 group and two above 90. health workers. As on June 12 the State recorded 367 deaths, with a As the infection is on the rise in the State, especially in mortality rate of 0.90 per cent. Chennai city’s death toll Chennai, pressure is mounting on the administration. A COVID deaths of people below 60 and with no other illnesses, that day was 294 with a 1.01 per cent death rate. batch of 23 nurses staged a brief sit-in on the premises of The death toll in the State touched a new single-day the Omandurar Government Super Speciality Hospital, especially in Chennai, pose significant concern to the authorities. peak, 38, on June 14. Of these, seven persons had no where over 400 patients are being treated, complaining B Y ILANGOVAN RAJASEKARAN co-morbid conditions. that they were stressed out because of long working hours. Chennai’s infection rate vis-a-vis the State as on June It prompted the government to recruit, temporarily, 2,400 12 was 64 per cent. The number of infections in Chennai health care professionals and 1,000 postgraduate doctors. WHEN SHE CRIED IN AGONY INDICATING constitues two-thirds of the State’s total, though accord- Doctors and paramedical staff in the districts are also being that her chest felt like exploding, the medical team that ing to Health Secretary J. Radhakrishnan, who is also the brought to Chennai to bolster the manpower, and addi- attended to her stood helpless. Though she was a Type I pandemic nodal officer for Chennai city, just 16 per cent tional ambulances have been added to the fleet. diabetes mellitus patient, doctors were optimistic that of the city’s 37,000 streets, mainly in north Chennai, she would respond to the treatment. After all, she was in were infection-prone. D ISCREPANCY IN DEATH TOLL her teens. “But sadly, she collapsed and never recovered,” “Chennai remains a danger zone,” said a senior Cor- Allegations are rife that the government is not maintain- said a senior nurse who attended to the 17-year-old Chen- poration health officer. The sheer density of population ing transparency while providing the statistics on nai girl who became the 126th victim in Tamil Nadu in the city is the critical reason why containment has COVID-19-related deaths. A visibly embarrassed Chief government’s burgeoning COVID-19 list of the dead. become difficult though the incompetence of the Greater Minister, Edappadi K. Palaniswami, told the media in The girl died just under four hours of her admission to Chennai Corporation cannot be overlooked. Salem that there was no need for the government to one of the leading government hospitals in Chennai on Besides doctors and postgraduate medics, 155 staff indulge in such activities. “How can one hide or cover up June 3. A note from the Health Department claimed that nurses in all government hospitals have been infected in a death?” he asked. Media reports, however, claimed that she died from “COVID-19 Pneumonia, Cardio Pulmonary the last two months. Two of them, Joan Mary Pricilla, 58, in Chennai Corporation limits around 398 people could Arrest, Acute Kidney Injury, Uncontrolled Hyper- Grade I Nursing Superintendent of Madras Medical Col- have died of virus infection until June 4 as against the glycaemia, Left Pyelonephritis and Diabetic Ketoacidosis”. lege Hospital, who continued her service even after her Health Department’s number of 166. .V. SRINIVASAN .V.

On the same day a 25-year-old woman from Krishnagiri K retirement in May, and Thangalakshmi, 54, of Rajiv On June 7, opposition leader and Dravida Munnetra district died of respiratory failure and asthma. Another A MOBILE testing centre in Chennai on June 16. Gandhi Government General Hospital, lost their lives in Kazhagam president M.K. Stalin expressed his shock on person to die of COVID complication was a 33-year-old the line of duty. Twitter over the discrepancies and contradictory claims mother soon after childbirth. Another 27-year-old woman The situation forced Health Minister C. Vijayabaskar to Meanwhile, the Supreme Court has asked the Tamil of various departments on the death toll. One report in Chennai died of the infection on April 27. say that “the virus’ strain is intensely virulent today in the Nadu government to file a status report on how some 30 claimed that the death of 20 persons in the Southern A large number of the people who died had co-mor- State”, suggesting that more patients were on emergency children of the government-run juvenile home in Chen- Railway Hospital at Perambur had not been included in bidities such as diabetics, hypertension, heart and kidney medicare and in need of oxygen. As the infection rate rose to nai tested positive. The Chennai City police, following a the statistics provided by the Health Department. “Many ailments, lung diseases, cancer and, predominantly, res- nearly half a lakh in the third week of June, many people complaint from the Chennai Corporation, are on the deaths go unreported. While the intensity of infection is piratory failures and sepsis shock. Two senior private started thronging hospitals in what physicians call “clinic- lookout for 199 persons of north Chennai who tested on the rise, the death rate remains surprisingly low. The medical practitioners, two senior nurses and a laboratory ally precarious condition” — most of them requiring nasal positive and jumped quarantine. media have to insist on the state maintaining transpar- technician, too, succumbed to the infection. J. An- oxygen and ventilators. Correspondingly, the death rate As many as 734 pregnant women were admitted for ency and providing correct statistics. From the beginning bazhagan of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam became also started going up, raising alarm. COVID treatment in various government hospitals; of there has been a huge gap in the coordination of various the first sitting MLA to die of COVID in the country. The “That many COVID patients need oxygenation bares these 547 had recovered until June 12. Two died. “Many agencies that are dealing with the pandemic,” said a list of the dead is growing long and the virus also seems to the seriousness of the issue today,” said a senior infec- of these women were denied treatment by private doctors social activist. be breaking the barrier of age. tious disease specialist. “Fortunately, all major govern- and hospitals they had been going to before they tested As the issue emerged to be a hot topic, Health Secret- Front-line workers and health care personnel are ment hospitals have integrated oxygen plants to meet the positive. They were referred to our hospital and they ary, Dr Beela Rajesh, who was transferred from the post worried about the increasing death rate, especially in the massive emergency requirements of today. The Madurai recovered, many of them despite having co-morbidities,” on June 12, said that a committee had been formed to 30-60 age group, although the fact that a few over 90 Rajaji Government Medical College Hospital in Madurai said a senior physician of the Institute of Child Health “reconcile” the statistics on deaths and admissions re- years of age have recovered offers some solace. From has one such plant, besides adequate number of ventilat- and Hospital for Children at Egmore, Chennai. As on ceived from Chennai Corporation and private hospitals April 29, the day the State Health Department started ors. We are well-equipped to meet any emergency,” said June 15, the hospital had 62 patients. with that of the Health Department. issuing daily bulletins on COVID deaths, to June 13, as Dr J. Sangumani, the hospital’s dean. A major referral “The task is clear and could hardly be more urgent. many as 25 patients who lost their lives were in the 20-40 centre for the southern districts of the State, it recently K EEPING MORTALITY RATE LOW We have to save as many lives as possible,” said an age group, 127 were in the 41-60 age group and 208 were saved a 54-year-old COVID patient with plasma therapy. “Since the virus is erratic and not confined to any set influenza specialist. Meanwhile, with infection spread- above 61. On June 13 and 14 there were seven deaths each The hospital has so far recorded three deaths of over 450 pattern that epidemiologists have perceived, we have ing, the government has declared a lockdown for 12 days of people in the 40-60 age group who had no other patients there. decided to ‘indigenise’ our action plan, especially in from June 19 in Chennai and parts of Tiruvallur, illnesses. A study on COVID-related death in Tamil Nadu Chennai,” said a city-based epidemiologist. As a result, Chengalpattu and Kancheepuram districts. २

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 38 39 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 COVER STORY long lockdown period to create more facilities despite the have already started going back to other States, especially to fact that it anticipated a spurt in cases once migrants Punjab where the paddy transplantation operations have B IHAR & JHARKHAND started returning. “We spent the time understanding begun and workers are in demand. Farmers in Punjab are what exactly was required. Now, as and when the need luring these workers with the promise of increased wages arises, we will act upon it,” said Dr Sunil Kumar Singh. and better facilities. But all this is happening at an informal The State has done well to increase the number of level in Bihar, without the government coming into play. tests being conducted. Over 3,500-4,000 tests are being Busloads of workers are said to be leaving the State secretly done every day, and the target is to increase it to 10,000 a in the dead of night. day. So far 1,23,629 people across the State have been Contrasting tales tested. The extent of migrants’ contribution to the spike JHARKHAND-BRO AGREEMENT in infections can be deduced from the fact that they In Jharkhand, on the other hand, the government has accounted for 4,449 of the total of 6,475 positive cases on taken it upon itself to seek guarantees from those who The stark difference in the manner in which Bihar and Jharkhand June 14. The fact that 3,975 people have recovered gives want to recruit workers from the State. Chief Minister tackled the issue of migrant labourers struggling to reach home during the Bihar government hope that he severity of the infec- Hemant Soren, who personally ensured that workers tion may not be very high in the State. “Our mortality rate stranded in places such as Leh-Ladakh and the Andaman the lockdown is noteworthy. BY PURNIMA S. TRIPATHI is low, so we can afford to take some risks and start some & Nicobar Islands were airlifted and brought home, has economic activities while taking all precautions,” said a sought written undertakings from prospective employers senior leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party. Among the about the welfare of workers from Jharkhand. “We have All THROUGH THE LOCKDOWN BIHAR AND doctor. But the way cases are increasing is a matter of precautions being taken are distribution of masks and seen how our people in other States were not given Jharkhand occupied centre stage in the collective con- concern, he said. In Bihar, so far only government hospit- soap in rural areas and the creation of awareness about proper treatment, nor were they treated with dignity. sciousness of the nation, not because of a surge in als—of which there are only three, in Patna (Nalanda physical distancing. Now we will not allow any compromise with their labour, COVID-19 infections but because of the numbers of Medical College and Hospital), Bhagalpur and Gaya— welfare, rights, benefits and dignity,” he told the media in migrant labourers on the road struggling to get back and district government hospitals are treating J HARKHAND Ranchi after he had negotiated a memorandum of under- home from far-off places in the country, with some of COVID-19 patients. Realising the gravity of situation, the In Jharkhand, too, most of the deaths are of people who standing with the Border Roads Organisation (BRO), them losing their lives on the road, on railways tracks and Bihar government has converted the Patliputra Indoor had co-morbidities such as high blood pressure, heart which recruits workers from Jharkhand for road-build- inside trains. In Bihar, a total of 20.46 lakh migrants Stadium in Patna into a COVID care facility, thereby conditions, diabetes or cancer. Here too, the recovery ing work in the border areas of Jammu and Kashmir, returned in May, while in Jharkhand seven lakh reached increasing the number of fully equipped beds at its dis- rate is high: out of a total of 1,761 cases, over 900 patients Leh-Ladakh, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.. home. Their arrival also saw an increase in the number of posal by another 400-500. have recovered so far. As is the case in Bihar, in In a first of its kind move anywhere in India, the infections in the two States. It is also mulling over the possibility of co-opting Jharkhand, too, returning migrants account for a large Jharkhand government signed an agreement with the BRO Bihar had recorded only 1,016 cases and seven deaths private hospitals for COVID-19 treatment, if required. number of the total of 1,396 cases. The State has also been on June 8 for the recruitment of 11,800 workers from the until May 15, but by June 14 it had a total of 6,475 cases, “So far we are able to meet our requirement at govern- diligent about testing. Up to the time of writing, a total of State. The Jharkhand government has invoked the Inter- with 36 lives lost, and the number of infections is still ment hospitals. But if the situation demands, we will ask 1,06,171 people have been tested in the State. State Migrant Workmen (Regulation of Employment and rising. Similarly, Jharkhand had recorded only 204 cases private hospitals to reserve beds for COVID care too. The However, there is a striking difference in the way the Conditions of Service) Act, 1979, for this purpose, which and three deaths as of May 15, but by June 14 it had 1,761 government has written to all the private hospitals re- two States are dealing with the issue of migrants. While requires the BRO to register itself as an employer that can cases and 10 deaths. garding this,” said Dr Sunil Kumar Singh. Significantly, Jharkhand has started rehabilitating those who have come recruit directly without the services of middlemen contract- “But our recovery rate, at 62.5 per cent, is much above the Bihar government closed all its quarantine centres, home, Bihar is still in the process of mapping their skills. In ors, called Mates, as was the practice so far. Under this the national average. Also important is the fact that the 15,000 in all, with effect from June 15. “Those arriving Bihar, all that migrants are being offered are jobs under the agreement, the BRO will pay wages that are higher by 15-20 maximum number of deaths due to the coronavirus has from outside will be kept quarantined at home. There is Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee per cent directly into the bank accounts of the workers, been of those who had co-morbidities. Pure coronavirus no need for these centres now,” said a senior government Scheme, which pay a measly Rs.250-300 a day. This has unlike the practice so far where the Mates took their cut deaths in Bihar are very few,” said Dr Sunil Kumar Singh, official. resulted in a great deal of unrest in rural areas, and people from the wages. The BRO will also have to provide benefits a Janata Dal (United) leader who is also a practising The government does not seem to have utilised the such as health care facilities, accident insurance, transport to and from home, and proper housing. The BRO has been taking workers from Jharkhand for years, in two batches: April-May and October- November. It was this October-November batch of work- ers that got stuck in Leh-Ladakh in March because of the MIGRANTS who lockdown and was airlifted by the State government. It arrived from Kerala was then that the Chief Minister, who received them at via a Shramik the Ranchi airport, actually realised their plight and Special train at Hatia decided to institutionalise the recruitment system. Railway Station, A total of 11 special trains have been organised to take Ranchi, on June 13. 11,800 workers to the border areas. Two trains have (Right) Migrants already left. The Chief Minister flagged off the first train boarding a bus at the on June 13 and told BRO officials that these workers Delhi-Noida border should return with similar smiling faces in October. Also in New Delhi to in the offing is a special government insurance scheme travel to their native worth Rs.10-15 lakh for those going out of the State to places in Bihar on work. “No more compromises with either the safety or TI TI June 13. P २ P welfare of our workers,” Hemant Soren promised.

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 40 41 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 COVER STORY be little improvement in the recov- been asking for relaxations since ery rate, which hovers around 41 mid May. In its “Unlock-1” G UJARAT per cent. “The government hos- guidelines, the State government pital is being called the ‘dead body’ has allowed industries to operate hospital. We are unable to cope with 100 per cent capacity with with the numbers. We are ex- mandatory safety processes in hausted and there is no end in place. Additionally, all private and sight,” the doctor said. government offices, banks, shops, Gujarat government figures salons, and even coffee shops have Unable to cope show there are 127 hospitals iden- been allowed to reopen under tified across the State to treat strict physical distancing and COVID-19 patients and provide safety protocols. Local residents There are 127 hospitals in the State with COVID treatment facilities, isolation facilities, but doctors say say that other than the display of this is not enough. Speaking of the masks, everything else seems to be but the situation continues to be grim and private hospitals charge absurdly high rates being charged back to normal, including the as they please. B Y ANUPAMA KATAKAM by private hospitals, Dakshin Ch- traffic jams. hara, a film-maker who lives in Soon after the unlocking Ahmedabad, said: “I heard some- began, Chief Minister Vijay GUJARAT CONTINUES TO BE AMONG THE 517 cases on June 14, with Ahmedabad accounting for where that hospitals were taking a Rupani announced a Rs.14,000 five States witnessing the highest numbers of COVID-19 311.With restrictions imposed on movement between deposit of Rs.1 lakh to admit crore relief package to revive the cases and deaths in the country: 23,544 positive cases districts, the spread is contained within the city, but that COVID patients. The pandemic State’s battered economy. Term- and 1,477 deaths, as of June 15. The contagion shows no may change rapidly once the restrictions are removed. As has become a business opportun- ing it Gujarat’s plan for becoming signs of abating, and the State machinery appears com- of June 15, the three other major cities reporting positive ity for private businesses and the “atmanirbhar” (self-reliant), pletely overwhelmed and the health care system seems to cases were Vadodara (504), Surat (654) and Rajkot (59). government. The rich will recover A POSTER outside a private hospital in Rupani said the relief measures have broken down. Private hospitals are reportedly al- “If there is a noticeable change in these cities’ figures, it because they can pay, while the Ahmedabad lists daily charges for COVID comprised rebates on property tax, lowed to charge astronomical amounts for COVID-19 could be blamed on Ahmedabad, and so the need to poor will die. We have filed an RTI patients: Rs.9,000 for general ward, loan interest subsidies and sector- treatment. A social worker from the State said: “Three contain the disease here is critical,” the social worker [Right to Information] petition Rs.12,600 for High Dependency Unit wise allocation of funds to support months into the pandemic, the State, for all its bombast said. demanding to know how these (HDU), Rs.18,050 for Isolation plus and promote businesses. A sum of on its development model, is in a shambles because it did A doctor at Ahmedabad Civil Hospital, which has amounts are decided.” He shared a Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and Rs.21,850 for Rs.466 crore has been earmarked not have the infrastructure to cope. Mumbai is in an seen 60 per cent of the deaths take place in its wards, photograph of a signboard posted a combination of ventilator, ICU and for labour welfare; this includes equally bad condition, but it seems to be handling it said: “Essentially, the lack of adequate health care facilit- outside a private hospital listing isolation. Rs.35,000 for each tribal labourer much better than Ahmedabad.” ies and stringent procedures in testing and treatment is charges for COVID patients. It who works as an intra-State mi- Ahmedabad, with 1,187 deaths, remains the epi- causing much of the surge.” The Ahmedabad Municipal said: Single day charges for a general ward is Rs.9000, grant. Free rations and a direct transfer of Rs.1,000 to the centre. Community transmission is believed to be Corporation (AMC) has increased the number of hospit- High Dependency Unit (HDU) costs Rs.12600 per day, accounts of families living below the poverty line are rampant in the city. Gujarat’s highest single-day tally was als dedicated to COVID-19 treatment. Yet there seems to Isolation plus Intensive Care Unit (ICU) is 18,050 per other relief measures. Most importantly, the government day, and the combination of ventilator, ICU and Isolation is giving Rs.100 crore each to the Health Department and would be Rs.21,850 for a single day. the municipal corporations of Ahmedabad, Surat, Chhara, who lives in one of Ahmedabad’s many low- Vadodara and Rajkot to improve health care facilities in income community ghettos, said residents of the area order to combat the virus. took matters into their own hands when the AMC failed Surat’s famed textile markets and diamond cutting/ to respond to the growing number of cases there and polishing units are working with physical distancing began disinfecting the streets and homes. That seemed to norms in place. “While we are happy to restart, the have helped, he said. problem is every time someone tests positive, we have to Stories of patients running from pillar to post in shut the unit,” says Manglesh Shah, who owns a dia- search of isolation beds and treatment appear every day mond-cutting unit. “There is a slowdown in the economy, in the local press. Mohammad Pathan, who owns a phar- so the demand is low. Between labour and demand, I am macy, said: “I took my neighbour to the Civil Hospital. not sure how we are going to survive this.” The construc- We waited for hours before being admitted. Meanwhile, tion industry has also restarted but it suffers from labour people around me were being given the news of relatives shortage, said a contractor. passing away owing to COVID-19. I don’t think I will ever A Vadodara businessman said: “All this seems good forget the tragedy that was unfolding in front of me.” on paper. Hopefully, they will make the payouts, as it is The State government had recently earned the Gu- critical for survival. While they have allowed us to operate jarat High Court’s ire over its mismanagement of the fully, the problem is without labour most of us are work- crisis. ing to about 50 to 60 per cent capacity. Gujarat absorbs massive skilled labour from other States. With their ex- MIT DAVE/REUTERS MIT A U NLOCKING odus, we are struggling with a labour issue. They need to A DOCTOR wearing a protective face shield uses a thermal scanner to measure the temperature of a child at his Following the Union Home Ministry’s guidelines issued do something about that. Unless quarantine rules relax, mobilehealth clinic, after his clinic and its adjoining areas were declared a micro-containment zone following the easing of on June 1, Gujarat issued guidelines for a phased reopen- we will not be able to function fully. It is very easy to shut lockdown restrictions, in Ahmedabad on June 15. ing. Businesses in the highly industrialised State have down. But not that easy to restart.” २

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 42 43 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 COVER STORY M ADHYA PRADESH Rural spread Even as the coronavirus infection moves rapidly across the villages of Madhya Pradesh, the BJP government pats itself on the back for its handling of the situation but continues to focus on consolidating its political power. BY ANANDO BHAKTO

IN MADHYA PRADESH, LEADERS OF THE migrant labourers who recently returned to the State. ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) continue to court The pandemic’s speedy spread in the hinterland is controversy even as the public health crisis relating to the obvious when one looks at the numbers. On May 21, only coronavirus pandemic deepens and the fatality rate 186 villages had infections. Over the next 22 days, the shows no sign of abating. As of June 15, the number of infection spread to 462 villages. positive cases in the State stood at 10,802 and the num- The Congress has time and again pointed out that ber of casualties at 459, for a death rate of 4.24 per cent. politically motivated transfers of administrative offi- Since early March, Madhya Pradesh has been the cials, the lack of a Health Minister for over a month, epicentre of political machinations that political observ- and the shocking number of positive cases amongst ers believe compromised the State’s ability to deal with Health Department officials are responsible for in- the disease. Another high-decibel political drama sur- creasing the coronavirus threat in the State. Abbas faced on June 10 after an audio clip emerged on social Hafeez, State spokesperson of the Congress, who spoke media claiming to expose the BJP top leadership’s pur- to Frontline over the phone from Bhopal, iterated that ported role in hatching the coup against the erstwhile the government lacked a road map. “If this government government. Former Chief Minister Kamal Nath had had any sense of urgency in dealing with the virus, TI launched a scathing attack on the Shivraj Singh Chouhan the virus would not have spread in all 52 districts. The P regime, asserting that the Congress’ charges against the number of positive cases would not have crossed the BJP had been validated. 10,000 mark. Shivraj Singh Chouhan has his priorities SUPPORTERS of BJP leader Jyotiraditya Scindia June 14, Chouhan told the media: “All parameters in the “I was claiming since day one that the BJP had fixed on the upcoming byelections, and all that his performing a yagna at a temple for the speedy recovery of State have improved significantly as there has been a toppled my democratically elected government through partymen are doing is flouting physical distancing their leader from COVID-19, in Bhopal on June 15. decrease of 151 active cases over the past 24 hours. A a conspiracy and allurement as I was waiving loans of norms, stepping up membership drives and focussing remarkable number of 300 patients have recovered from farmers, offering employment to the youth and safe- on winning the 24 Legislative Assembly constituencies the Indian Penal Code (disobeying a government offi- the infection over the same period across the State. Now guarding dignity of women,” Kamal Nath tweeted. that have fallen vacant.” cial’s order banning public assembly). Later, Gupta was the number of active cases stands at 2,666 and the doub- The Congress maintains that the BJP’s power grab “The BJP has thrown caution to the wind. They are also named in the first information report. Inspector ling rate of the cases has increased to 34.1 days. The followed by Chouhan’s one-month-long absolutist rule, focussed on creating defections. Every day they are bring- Sanjay Mishra of the Malharganj police station con- recovery rate stands at 71.1 per cent. While the doubling during which the State did not have either a Home ing Congress workers from green zone districts to the red firmed to the media that the organisers had not asked for rate is the best in the country, the recovery rate is second Minister or a Health Minister, is responsible for the zone of Bhopal and getting them to join their party so that permission for the event. The situation in Indore is grim only to Rajasthan’s 75.3 per cent.” explosion of infections across the State, particularly in its the optics show that they are on a strong footing. When with 4,069 cases as of June 15. During the lockdown the State government has come finance hub, Indore. The June 10 audio clip allegedly has these workers travel back to the green zones, they become The recklessness reoccurred on June 14: State Cab- out with programmes such as the Rojgar Setu Portal, Chouhan saying: “It was the decision of Central leader- potential carriers. Some time ago, half of our districts inet Minister Govind Singh Rajput of the BJP attended a Covid Mitra, and the “Sarthak Light” app. According to ship which said that this government should be toppled were coronavirus free and now the situation is alarming,” large gathering in Rahatgarh town of Sagar district the government, the Rojgar Setu Portal, which has re- or else it will ruin everything.” Hafeez said. where physical distancing norms were openly flouted. In gistered 7.30 lakh migrants and 5,246 employers and job The COVID-19 pandemic in Madhya Pradesh is in- BJP leaders’ mass contact programmes, as caught on December 2018, Rajput won the Surkhi Assembly seat as providers since its launch on June 10, generated employ- deed entering a fraught phase, with the number of posit- camera, give potency to Hafeez’s argument. On June 12, a Congress candidate and was among the 22 rebels who ment for 302 migrant workers in just three days. ive cases increasing in rural pockets. The latest report former BJP MLA Sudarshan Gupta organised a pro- quit the party following Jyotiraditya Scindia’s decision to Through Covid Mitra, the government plans to rope in from the State government revealed that as many as 961 gramme at Banganga area in Indore to celebrate Union jump ship to the BJP. Since then Rajput has stepped up volunteers who will be provided with an oximeter to people in 462 villages have contracted the virus, unleash- Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar’s birthday. his efforts to get the BJP ticket from Surkhi. Rahatgarh check the oxygen levels of people. The purpose of the ing a major fear of community spread. Of the 951 who Gupta gathered 2,000 families to distribute rations to town is the political nucleus of Surkhi. Sarthak Light app is to inform people about the location were found positive in a testing drive, 32 succumbed to them; chaos ensued. The next day the police registered a However, the BJP has been giving itself credit for its of the nearest COVID-19 treatment facility and sample the disease. At least 479 of those who tested positive are case against unidentified persons under Section 188 of deft handling of the pandemic in Madhya Pradesh. On collection centre. २

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 44 45 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 DEBASISH BHADURI COVER STORY cluding migrant workers, have been staging protests VILLAGERS wait in a long queqe in Bali island in the against the lack of basic amenities or the delay in testing. Sunderbans to receive aid from groups from Kolkata trying W EST BENGAL Some people have reportedly escaped from quarantine to reach them with relief materials. centres. The BJP’s steady campaign against the State govern- bative Mamata Banerjee said: “At a time when we are ment’s alleged reluctance to allow the return of migrant trying to overcome disasters, one particular political workers for fear that they could cause the spread of the party is saying remove Trinamool from Bengal. Is this the virus, has put further pressure on the Trinamool. time to do politics? I am not saying drive out Narendra Politics amid Mamata Banerjee made matters worse by claiming that Modi from Delhi, because I believe this is not the time…. the people of the State called the Shramik Special trains Why are you doing this now?” that brought back migrants “corona express”, giving the However, in spite of her protest against the politicisa- BJP yet another reason to attack the government. tion of the COVID crisis, the Trinamool has been gearing pandemic While the Trinamool has been pummeled by criti- for the election. Mamata Banerjee has directed her party cism for the past three months, the BJP has kept up a leaders at the central and the grass-roots levels to counter sustained attack on the ruling party on practically every the “communal” propaganda of the BJP, and, according Political parties focus on the 2021 Assembly election even as the issue—failure to enforce the lockdown, absence of health to reports, the party is setting up an army of technology- infrastructure, confusion over COVID deaths, lack of savvy workers for an online battle with the BJP. COVID situation continues to deteriorate. B Y SUHRID SANKAR CHATTOPADHYAY testing, delay in giving test results, irregularities in the The political battle, which has been a virtual one so disbursal of ration during the lockdown, and misman- far, is now spilling over to the streets. If earlier there was THE COVID SITUATION IN WEST BENGAL IS that are operated, the danger of the spread of COVID has agement of the post-Amphan situation. The BJP has violence over area domination, in recent weeks it has “grim”, the Supreme Court said on June 12 in a harsh become acute. Kolkata alone accounted for 104 of the tried to derive political mileage from the present crises in been over relief distribution. BJP leaders and workers negation of the State government’s claim that its man- 407 fresh cases reported on June 15. the State. A senior Trinamool leader admitted to Front- have repeatedly complained that they are being preven- agement of the public health crisis has been among the In the face of the impending catastrophe, the two line that the “political narrative in the State has gone ted by Trinamool members and the police from visiting best in the country. As on June 15, the State had 11,494 main political adversaries in the State, the ruling Trin- against the party in the last two months”. Amphan-affected areas to distribute relief. cases, including 5,478 active cases, and 495 deaths. The amool Congress and the BJP seem to have shifted their If until March the saffron party was on the defensive According to the well-known political observer and disease has been spreading exponentially in the State, attention to the 2021 election. On June 9, Union Home in view of Mamata Banerjee’s intense political movement psephologist Biswanath Chakraborty, in a politically act- exacerbated by the return of lakhs of migrant workers Minister Amit Shah sounded the battle cry for the elec- against the Citizenship Amendment Act, by June the ive State like Bengal, it cannot be expected that the issue from different parts of the country, and the government tion through a “virtual rally” when he called for political fortunes had once again reversed. The COVID of COVID will be kept outside the purview of politics. has struggled to cope with the situation amid allegations “paribartan” (change). At a time when the State is facing outbreak and Amphan put the Trinamool on the back “But the intensity of politics in this pandemic situation is of mismanagement and protests in quarantine centres an economic and social crisis, the BJP installed around foot, and it was the BJP that emerged as the aggressor. unprecedented, mostly because the Assembly election is across the State. The government also finds itself under 70,000 smart television sets across the State for the Joyprakash Majumdar, vice president of the BJP’s just 10 months away. Whereas Mamata Banerjee has relentless political attack from opposition parties, partic- rally, inviting criticism from political quarters. In his State unit and head of the political analysis wing of the been trying to use the COVID situation as a success story ularly the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which clearly address to party supporters across the State, Amit Shah party, told Frontline: “The future of Bengal’s politics has for her government, the BJP and other opposition parties has its eye on the Assembly election due next year. not only attacked Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and been decided in the last three months of the lockdown, have been trying to establish the government’s efforts as a While on the one hand the people are reeling under her government on every front, but also spelt out what and decided unequivocally in favour of the BJP. If we complete failure. In the perception battle that is taking the dual impact of the pandemic and the super cyclone the BJP planned to achieve once it assumed power in the compare the present situation with that prevalent in place, the BJP at present appears to have gained the Amphan, which devastated the southern part of Bengal State. 2009-2010 before Mamata Banerjee came to power, we upper hand,” he said. in May, on the other hand the relaxation of the lockdown The BJP chose to strike at a time when the Trinamool see the anti-incumbency sentiment against the However, with the “grim” situation threatening to and the lack of sufficient public transport is turning out seems to be in a vulnerable situation. The ruling party has Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee government was not as pro- turn grimmer by the day, it is doubtful whether the to be a nightmare for the working people of Kolkata and been facing criticism from social and political circles over nounced as it is now against the Trinamool.” general populace, weighed down by financial worry and its surrounding areas. With commuters forced to ignore its alleged mismanagement of the COVID crisis and the The Trinamool’s reactions to the BJP’s attacks have issues of health and safety, will be concerned about who physical distancing norms in the limited number of buses cyclone relief. Those confined in quarantine centres, in- been tepid, lacking their usual vitriol. A normally com- will come to power in 2021. २

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 46 47 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 COVER STORY Education and Research) told the media in Rohtak that letin for Gurugram, only 167 persons were admitted in the number of COVID patients in the district might go up dedicated COVID hospitals. The surge appears to be H ARYANA to one lakh by August. He said that this projection was related to the easing of lockdown restrictions. It cannot based on feedback from Pandit Bhagwat Dayal Sharma be blamed on the return of migrant workers, as has University of Health Sciences. The authorities had been happened in some States, because Haryana is a destina- directed to get 3,500 beds ready as 3 per cent of patients tion rather than an origin State for migrants. As late as might require oxygen support. As of now, Rohtak ac- June 15, migrants were still leaving Haryana for their counts for 4.1 per cent of the total cases in the State and home towns and villages in other States. The 100th 4.6 per cent of the active cases. Shramik Express left Haryana on June 15, taking mi- Dangerous drop Curiously, the surge in Haryana cannot be attributed grants back to Chhattisgarh. to increased testing. Between May 1 and May 25, the Haryana saw a surge in COVID cases from May-end, and most of the number of people tested in Haryana increased from F ULL WAGES DENIED 3,0191 to 99,987. In the three weeks after May 25, the Jai Bhagwan, general secretary of the Centre of Indian cases were in districts close to Delhi. BY T.K. RAJALAKSHMI rate of testing did not increase as rapidly, and only Trade Unions (CITU), told Frontline that only 25-30 per 1,89,914 tests had been done up to June 15. Haryana’s test cent of industrial activity was under way and that too only positivity ratio (number of positive cases to total samples in some big units. The smaller establishments, he said, HARYANA SEEMED TO HAVE BROUGHT THE The contagion seemed to be concentrated in the dis- tested) upto May 25 was exceptionally low at 1.21 per had not restarted activities. There is a shortage of work- COVID situation under control in the initial weeks of the tricts and densely populated urban centres close to Delhi. cent, but it jumped to 4.19 per cent by June 15. ers, and even those who have returned to work are re- lockdown, but there was a rapid deterioration from the Gurugram, Faridabad and Sonipat districts account for Haryana’s fatality rate at 1.3 per cent is lower than the portedly getting paid only for the days they worked. “It’s end of May. There were only 1,213 confirmed cases the bulk of the caseload−5,481 out of 7,722 cumulative national average of 2.89 per cent but may go up with the like a daily wage. Where a worker should be getting between March 14 and May 25. By June 15 there were an cases reported up to June 15, accounting for 71 per cent of increasing proportion of active cases. The low fatality Rs.16,000 in a month, he’s getting Rs.10,000 only. These additional 6,509 cases, the sharpest rate of growth in any the total caseload. rate shows that the number of critical cases, as of June 15, are violations, but the government is turning a blind eye,” State since May 25. Neighbouring Delhi also recorded a The pattern suggests that this is part of a trend in the remains low. There are only about 51 patients on critical he said. surge in this period, but Haryana was ahead of it. Hary- National Capital Region. Gurugram accounts for 3,477 support (33 on oxygen support and 18 on ventilator), The lockdown has been lifted in several parts and ana’s doubling rate (the number of days over which cases cases, or 45 per cent of the State’s caseload. The majority according to the State government. inter-State bus services have resumed operations. But double) at present is half of the national average. The of the cases were found concentrated in the Gurugram It also appears that most patients are in home isola- there are not many commuters as people are afraid of number of active cases, which had stayed under 500 for Municipal Corporation area. tion, rather than in hospitals or COVID care centres. In catching an infection. Paradoxically, in red zone areas most of May, increased to 4,057 by June 15. This surge There are, however, indications that the pandemic Gurugram, which accounts for half of the active cases such as Gurugram and Faridabad, social distancing explains why Haryana’s recovery rate at 46.17 per cent is may soon acquire a wider geographical spread in Hary- (1,999 as of June 14), as many as 1,509 were in home norms are flouted openly, especially after the easing of lower than the national average of 52.47 per cent. ana. On June 11, the State Chief Secretary (Medical isolation. According to the district surveillance unit bul- lockdown curbs. Jai Bhagwan said: “This can explain the surge in cases. Many people, even if they have the symp- toms, are not isolating themselves for fear of getting quarantined in some unknown place. They are quarant- TRAFFIC congestion on the Delhi-Gurugram ining themselves at home and infecting others as a res- highway on June 1. ult.” The CITU has held several protests seeking adequate personal protective equipment (PPE) for health care workers and adequate compensation for the risky work involved. A letter sent by the Accredited Social Health Activist (ASHA) union on June 9 to the Chief Minister said that health workers did not have adequate sanitisers and PPEs. The union also demanded that workers be tested on a monthly basis as they were vulnerable to infection. The union complained of attacks by anti-social elements on ASHA workers and demanded a risk allow- ance of Rs.4,000, which the government has not con- ceded. On June 12, ASHA workers held protests at Primary Health Care (PHC) centres in the State. While hospitalisation and mortality figures may sug- gest there is no acute crisis, many people are apparently avoiding getting tested despite developing symptoms. People fear the stigma attached to COVID infection. There are also fears that proper treatment will not be available. If this trend continues, full resumption of economic activity in an important economic hub like Gurugram, and also elsewhere, may take longer than usual. The deepening of the COVID crisis may also delay the return

TI २ P of migrant labourers, who have left in large numbers.

49 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 COVER STORY K ARNATAKA TI UDHAKARA JAIN UDHAKARA P S

COLLECTING samples for swab test of primary contacts of any symptoms. Patients who have symptoms, who are a policeman who tested positive at the Kalasipalya police also super spreaders and have comorbidities, should be station in Bengaluru, on June 16. (Facing page) Migrants admitted to hospital,” Kakkilaya said. Rising trend from Uttar Pradesh at Palace Grounds in Bengaluru ready This point was reiterated by Dr Anil Kumar Avu- to depart on June 16. lappa, a doctor associated with the People’s Health Movement and based in Bagepalli. “The State govern- With the increasing arrival of domestic travellers from different parts of SARI (severe acute respiratory infection) are being tested ment is not acknowledging that there is community the country, particularly Maharashtra, Karnataka sees a surge in the on a priority. In spite of a decrease in testing, health transmission. If they acknowledged it, they would have to officials told Frontline that symptomatic cases among change their whole strategy of tracing-testing-isolation. number of COVID cases. BY VIKHAR AHMED SAYEED travellers were immediately quarantined and tested. The When COVID-19 is in the community, the health care officials were confident that they would be able to handle system should change in such a way that it reaches the KARNATAKA RECORDED A TOTAL OF 7,000 known for its historical linkages with Mumbai, saw a any increase in the number of cases as only 14.3 per cent people so that people displaying symptoms don’t move COVID-19 cases by the evening of June 14. Strangely, drastic increase in the number of cases with people re- of the 22,872 hospital beds earmarked for COVID-19 about freely. Instead of paying attention to this, the even as the State witnessed a surge in cases, the govern- turning to their home towns. Udupi district recorded patients were in use now. government is extending the insurance model, which will ment did away with the practice of holding evening press 1,026 cases, the highest in the State, followed by Kalabur- While government officials are confident that the only benefit large corporate hospitals,” Avulappa said. conferences. Suresh Kumar, the Minister for Primary agi (896 cases) and Yadgir (809 cases), the two northern pandemic is under control, Dr Srinivas Kakkilaya, a doc- In Bengaluru, where the number of containment and Secondary Education tasked with the job of briefing districts which are known for seasonal migration, and tor based in Mangaluru, said, “It is clear that there is zones increased to 142, houses of patients are being the press on COVID, had not conducted a single press Bengaluru Urban (690 cases). With the return of mi- community spread now [meaning that the source of the sealed now. Apart from these containment zones, signi- conference since June 1, busy as he was with the affairs of grant workers from other parts of the country, the num- infections cannot be traced] and there will be a rise in the ficant economic activity has resumed in most parts of the his own Ministry. ber of cases in the two northern districts saw a significant number of cases over the next two months. Why can’t the city. This is when the city is seeing an increasing number With the increasing arrival of domestic travellers increase. Similarly, Vijayapura, Belagavi, Raichur and government tell the people that there is community of ILI and SARI cases being diagnosed as coronavirus from different parts of the country, particularly Maha- Dakshina Kannada districts, which also saw a return of spread and change its approach? Why is it still creating positive. Several parts of Karnataka saw huge gatherings rashtra, since late May, there has been a surge in the migrant workers, witnessed a major increase in the num- panic?” The change in approach Kakkilaya advocated flouting physical distancing rules, leading to fears that number of cases with a clear correlation between districts ber of cases. Significantly, 3,955 of the 7,000 cases have was decentralisation of health services. “The problem people in the State were not vigilant. At Karjagi village in that saw a high arrival of returnees and the spike in the recovered and have been discharged, with the daily rate should be addressed at a cluster-wise level. Districts are Haveri district, thousands of devotees gathered for the number of COVID cases. Seventy per cent of the 7,000 of recovery exceeding the number of new cases reported no longer categorised as red or green zones. Instead, annual festival at the Brahmalingeshwara temple. cases in the State were domestic travellers. The majority in mid June. The number of deaths stands at 86. houses are sealed now.” Health Minister B. Sriramulu participated in a wedding of them, 4,386 persons, had returned from Maharashtra While Karnataka’s testing capacity, in terms of the “In the days to come, no lockdown is going to help. It in Ballari on June 15, where a large number of guests had while 1,340 other cases were their contacts. number of laboratories has gone up, actual testing has will help to reassure the people that there is no need to gathered. Photographs of the event, which went viral on Bengaluru Urban had the highest number of cases come down since the beginning of June to around 7,000 panic. Ideally, people should feel reassured of health social media, showed the Minister on the stage with the when the pandemic broke out in the State but this posi- tests a day from a high of around 11,000 a day. Persons check-ups, and the Health Department should have mo- married couple without maintaining physical distance or tion changed since the start of June, when Udupi district, displaying symptoms of ILI (influenza like illness) and bile units. As it is, 85 per cent of the patients will not show wearing a mask. २

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 50 51 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 COVER STORY A NDHRA PRADESH Testing regime Andhra Pradesh’s strategy is to reduce the number of fatalities with community surveillance, identification of positive cases, cluster containment, contact tracing, quarantining and treatment. BY RAVI SHARMA

MORE THAN 7,000 PEOPLE IN ANDHRA 17,000 per day (currently 14,000 to 15,000 tests are Pradesh have tested positive for COVID-19 and nearly 90 being conducted per day), is gearing up for testing have died. The number of new cases almost doubled in 20,000 samples per day. Said an official: “We are under- the first 16 days of June since Unlock 1.0, with new taking 9,500 tests per million of the population, which is hotspots emerging across the State’s 13 districts. While it one of the highest among all States.” The State has a took the State nearly three months (March 9 to May 31) population of 5.22 crore. . RAMBABU . to register 3,571 positive cases, the figure went up by Speaking to Frontline, Jawahar Reddy said that test- S nearly 3,000 in just a fortnight. Kurnool, Krishna and ing on as large a scale as possible was essential for the Guntur continue to be the worst-affected districts, with chain of infection to be broken and for identification of TESTING at Rajahmundry in Andhra Pradesh on June 16. plained Jawahar Reddy: “The respective medical officer 1,092, 791 and 671 cases respectively as of June 16, fol- people, communities and areas where the infection was then calls the customer and gets to know more about the lowed by Anantapur (513), Nellore (423), East Godavari prevalent and, most importantly, to reduce mortality. legislators attending the four-day session to undergo illness.” (399) and Chittoor (363). The most number of fatalities Said Jawahar Reddy: “Testing early is essential to bring testing for COVID-19. Andhra Pradesh has also conver- Testing on such a large scale has not been easy. The have been in Kurnool (29) and Krishna (27) districts. down the mortality rate. Early testing will give doctors ted some of its State transport buses into mobile centres effort to set up testing facilities by convincing political Disturbingly, the problem has reached rural areas also. more time to treat patients. As things stand today many for collecting samples. Each district has four mobile bosses and the finance department has been a challenge. Health workers, including doctors, on the ground attrib- cases are being reported late, giving doctors very little collection centres. When the first COVID-19 case surfaced, Andhra Pradesh ute this to the return of migrant workers, many of them time, hardly a day, to treat a patient from the time he has had no testing facility, and samples from Kurnool town from hotspots like Maharashtra. been declared COVID-19 positive. This increases the P ROACTIVE MEASURES had to be sent to a private laboratory in Hyderabad for With COVID-19 spreading its tentacles across the mortality rate. We are working to ensure that there is With community surveillance, identification of positive testing. State, health experts and bureaucrats, including K.S. adequate time to stabilise a patient. I have also told all cases, cluster containment, contact tracing, quarantin- Today every district has at least one COVID-19 test- Jawahar Reddy, Special Chief Secretary, Health and District Collectors and health officials to test more and ing, and treatment according to the risk profile of a ing laboratory. There are 18 centres for real-time RT- Family Welfare, have predicted that Andhra Pradesh will identify as many people as they can and not to worry patient, Andhra Pradesh has embarked on a number of PCR testing and 48 (all in the government) for TrueNat have to be prepared for hospitalisation of 40,000 more about the number of positive cases. The focus is on proactive measures. Village ward communities have testing. Testing has placed a huge burden on the State as people within the next two months. Plans are afoot to add reducing mortality rates and saving lives rather than been formed and fever survey clinics conducted. The it spends Rs.1.5 crore per day on testing. The figure is 10,000 hospital beds to supplement the present 30,000. being concerned over the rising number of cases. Un- government also plans to screen 60 lakh people falling in bound to go up as the State further opens up and the The 40,000 beds will be spread across 23 government detected cases are more of a worry since they can spread the high-risk category—people over 60 years of age and number of cases increase. For most people the cost of the and 60 private hospitals. Indications are that there might the virus in the community. This far we have tested 10 per those having abnormal blood pressure and blood sugar test and related procedures, even at private hospitals, is be a gradual increase in the number of cases first in cent of our target.” levels—in the State’s over 500 containment zones. In the paid for by the government through the Aarogyasri Kurnool, Guntur and Krishna districts followed by Nel- At the behest of the State Health Department, the first phase 70,000 people are to be screened for blood scheme. Around 20 private hospitals are registered un- lore, Chittoor and Anantapur. Speaker of the Legislative Assembly agreed to direct pressure and sugar levels, oxygen saturation, fevers and der the scheme now. coronavirus-like symptoms. However, the opposition does not think that the gov- P RIORITY FOR TESTING The State has been testing people at random from ernment’s testing initiatives have been successful. Said The Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy-led Andhra Pradesh gov- different categories or walks of life. Testing for Sake Sailajanath, president of the Andhra Pradesh Con- ernment has vowed to test, trace, quarantine and treat its The government also COVID-19 are being undertaken at industrial and whole- gress Committee: “Cases are steadily increasing. In Vijay- citizens. With the emphasis on testing, officials from the sale market hubs and temples on people who have ar- awada out of the 59 wards, 42 are containment zones. State proudly proclaim that Andhra Pradesh has (as of plans to screen 60 lakh rived from outside the State and among vendors, as they Quarantine camps are in a bad condition. And worst, the June 16) conducted over 6,00,000 tests, a figure that could be super-spreaders. State has failed its migrant workers. These workers were includes both TrueNat (which was recently made a con- people falling in the According to Jawahar Reddy, the State’s “Pharmacy the backbone of the mining, construction and many firmatory test) and real-time reverse transcription–poly- App”, which helps pharmacists gather and collate in- other industries. But the government failed to recognise merase chain reaction (real-time RT–PCR) testing high-risk category in over formation from customers purchasing medicines for and address their issues. We just dumped them. I have procedures. Officials also claimed that their “robust test- fevers and then pass it on to the jurisdictional medical told Jaganmohan Reddy ‘try to rule the state, don’t try to ing regime”, which has a testing capacity of 15,000 to 500 containment zones. officer, has been a good source of data gathering. Ex- deal away the state.’” २

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 52 53 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 COVER STORY Ramachandran respectively, have gone into self-quar- Telangana’s test positivity rate—the percentage of tests antine after people they met tested positive for the virus. that yield positive results—stands at 12.16 per cent (as of T ELANGANA On June 12, Greater Hyderabad Mayor Bonthu Rammo- June 16), which is higher than the national average of han took a COVID-19 test after his driver tested positive. around 5.99 per cent. The only States with comparable or The biggest facility dedicated to COVID-19 in the higher test positivity rates are Maharashtra (15.16 per State, the Gandhi Medical College and Hospital at cent), Delhi (14.67 per cent) and Gujarat (8.31 per cent). Secunderabad, Hyderabad’s twin city, has become a hot A higher number indicates not only wider spread of the spot of cases. The chaos there recently resulted in one of infection but also the fact that only the symptomatic are the resident medical officers being suddenly transferred. being tested, leaving out large sections of the population. Peaking chaos KCR’s statement on June 14 promising “home quar- In May, the High Court, criticising the KCR govern- antine for those who test positive but have no serious ment for the poor testing rate, said it should not hide symptoms”, according to the opposition, has hardly en- behind the “fig leaf of financial constraints”. It was highly The uncontrolled spread of the pandemic in Telangana has knocked thused the population. Said Telangana Pradesh Congress critical of the government’s decision, despite its mandate, Committee (TPCC) president N. Uttam Kumar Reddy: to do away with tests on dead bodies before they were the stuffing out of Chief Minister K. Chandrasekhara Rao’s image “The Chief Minister is adopting an irrational, illogical released from government hospitals. The government and unscientific approach to combating the coronavirus. has appealed the High Court’s ruling in the Supreme as a tough man of action. BY RAVI SHARMA For nearly three months, despite calls from the opposi- Court. According to Rajender, the High Court’s order is tion and strictures from the High Court, he refused to impossible to implement since “over 1,000 people die THE TRIBULATIONS OF THE KALVAKUNTLA The State’s mortality rate (the number of deaths divided allow the private sector to be engaged in testing. Only one every day for various reasons”. Making matters worse is Chandrasekhara Rao (KCR) government in Telangana by the number of officially confirmed cases) at 3.53 per government hospital was exclusively designated for the State government’s decision to do away with the continue unabated as it attempts vainly to tackle the cent (as of June 16) compares poorly with the other south COVID-19 patients. Patients are being sent home mandated quarantine for railway passengers arriving in coronavirus disease in the State. The statistics are Indian States—Andhra Pradesh (1.28 per cent), without being cured. He has refused to call an all-party Telangana. Explained Shanti Kumari: “Telangana has chilling: over 5,406 positive cases, 191 deaths and a poor Karnataka (1.24 per cent), Tamil Nadu 1.09 per cent ) meeting or meet a Congress party delegation. He doesn’t followed the ICMR protocol in every respect. The ICMR testing record. This despite the fact that the government and Kerala (0.84 per cent). Telangana’s 3.53 per cent is allow anybody else to function and he doesn’t know how has clearly stipulated that only symptomatic and house- had announced a lockdown, on “sarvajana hitam (public lower than Maharashtra’s 4.88 per cent. Only Delhi, with to function.” Minister Rajender dismisses this allegation hold contacts of a positive case need be tested. Again, the interest)”, on March 22, two days before the nationwide 4.11 per cent, and Gujarat, with 6.22 per cent, have worse as rubbish. He told Frontline that the situation in Telan- ICMR suggests that testing ought to be moderate and lockdown was announced. mortality rates. Cases of infection have also been rising gana was well under control and that the number of cases judicious. In Telangana, testing is done on reasonable The pandemic has knocked the stuffing out of the rapidly. Among the infected are 153 doctors and other was far from overwhelming. He explained: “Not many suspicion. Testing involves precious government re- Chief Minister’s image of a tough man of action. The frontline health care personnel, besides politicians, cases are coming. And it is only in the crowded ‘Old City’ sources, so it cannot be undertaken on anyone and every- opposition is baying for his blood; the doctors are be- journalists and bureaucrats. Recently, Finance Minister areas of Hyderabad that there are many cases coming up. one. Some States are testing more aggressively and moaning the physical and emotional burnout due to the T. Harish Rao, legislator of the ruling Telangana Rashtra We are containing this by increased testing and contain- showing a 1 per cent test positivity rate. How long will a pressure-filled long working hours and the lack of PPEs Samithi (TRS) representing the united Warangal dis- ment measures.” person who has tested negative today remain negative?” and other essential equipment; and the Telangana High trict, tested positive for COVID-19 and went into self- But there is widespread fear that a huge number of On the government’s refusal not to allow the private Court and the Central government are criticising the quarantine. Earlier his personal assistant was found in- cases have gone undetected given the fact that Telangana sector a role in testing, Rajender explained that if the State for inadequate testing. On June 14, KCR an- fected by the virus. An officer on special duty assisting has one of the worst testing records in the country. testing facility was freely available and everyone “just nounced that 50,000 tests would be conducted in 30 Health Minister Eatala Rajender and 23 journalists According to Rajender, the government had until June walked in and sought a test, the number of COVID-19 Assembly constituencies in Hyderabad (including the working for various media houses also have tested posit- 16 conducted 44,431 tests. This rate pales in comparison cases would disproportionately go up, frightening the bustling Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation ive. The Collectors of Siddipet and Yadadri Bhuvanagiri with that of its neighbours Karnataka (443,969), Tamil public”. Said the Minister: “We have now put into place a area, which has the highest number of positive cases in districts, A.P. Venkatrami Reddy and Anitha Nadu (748,244) and Andhra Pradesh (583,286 tests). regulatory framework based on ICMR guidelines. For the State), Rangareddy, Vikarabad, Medchel, and San- example, only a person who has been prescribed a test by gareddy districts over the following 10 days. After stead- a doctor will be tested. And what can the private sector do fastly refusing for nearly three months, he accepted the once a person tests positive? It is us, the government, who widespread demand to allow private hospitals and labor- will be called to trace the patient’s contacts, contain the atories approved by the Indian Council of Medical Re- area concerned and ensure that the virus does not search (ICMR) to conduct COVID-19 tests and provide spread.” Officials cited past experience of the private treatment to those who tested positive. sector not divulging information on positive cases and A. Shanti Kumari, Special Chief Secretary to the Gov- also aggressively marketing their services. ernment in the Health, Medical and Family Welfare The Telangana government has not endeared itself to Department, told this correspondent that “it would be an the migrant workers, whose number some people put at area-specific, community-based, targeted approach”. 20 lakhs. According to a survey conducted by the Hy- The number (50,000 tests), contrary to what some many derabad campus of the Tata Institute of Social Sciences may think, was “quite big”, she added. (TISS) in collaboration with the Rachakonda Police The numbers tell a gory tale. Between May 25 and Commissionerate, 76 per cent of them did not receive the June 16, COVID-19 positive cases more than doubled monthly aid of 12 kg rice and Rs.500 that State govern- from 1,920 to 5,406. The number of deaths in the same ment had announced with fanfare. Based on a sample period, even more chillingly, skyrocketed from 56 to 191. size of 10,672 workers spread across eight police station limits, the survey showed that the migrants were given a AN ICMR TEAM conducting surveillance at Balapur in raw deal. The State did not even arrange enough trains

TI २ Hyderabad on May 31. P for their journey back home.

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 54 55 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 COVER STORY K ERALA Reworking strategy Kerala’s effective early strategies helped contain the spread of COVID, but its pressing concern today is preventing community spread.

BY R. KRISHNAKUMAR

STREETS ARE FILLING UP FAST, FOOTFALLS are being reported in many parts of the State every day. are rising in offices and supermarkets, and the influx of Until June 16, the State had recorded 2,543 con- expatriates is slowly overwhelming health and quarant- firmed cases, 1,348 (53.03 per cent of the positive cases) ine facilities as Kerala turns its attention to its most active cases, 1,174 recovered cases (46.17 per cent), and pressing concern today: foiling chances of a community 20 deaths (0.79 per cent). Seven of the 14 districts had spread of COVID-19. over a 100 active cases. They are Malappuram (192), “Being prepared” has been the State’s most effective Thrissur (138), Palakkad (155), Kasargod (115), Kannur strategy from the very beginning, with the requirements (110), Alappuzha (107), and Pattanamthitta (104). The of “tracing, quarantining, testing, isolating and treating”. highest number of 772 positive cases were recorded in

And people adhered to the government’s advisories with May, but in the first 16 days of June, 577 new cases were TI P remarkable eagerness. detected. The daily spike in the number of cases began PASSENGERS arriving from Jeddah by an Air India flight at Kochi International Airport on June 10. However, the government realises that even the most after May 18, when the fourth phase of the lockdown well-planned containment strategies could fail if the fa- began with the easing of restrictions. tigued official machinery becomes slack or people fail to The highest daily increase in positive cases was on home, too, if they had facilities there, provided they gave the State’s COVID containment efforts by highlighting adhere to prevention and control measures. June 5, when 111 people tested positive. At the same time, an affidavit agreeing to quarantine regulations. instances where it has been caught on the wrong foot. With the rising demand for liberal entry require- the rate of recovery of COVID patients was also increas- This need not be a cause for worry, the government The latest instance is the vexed issue of the need to ments and quarantine norms for incoming expatriates ing. Over 65 per cent of those who died (until June 16) said, because Kerala had already proved the effectiveness facilitate the return of Keralites from other States or and a change of attitude among the public regarding had imported the infection from outside Kerala, 15 per of home quarantine in its containment efforts, with over abroad, when such an influx is already leading to an containment norms, there is concern about three issues: cent had contracted the disease through contacts, and 20 2.5 lakh people staying in home quarantine at one increase in infections in the State. One is about the role people without symptoms (who per cent had no travel or contact history. All the 20 juncture. The opposition United Democratic Front and the account for over 60 per cent of all those who have tested persons who died, including a seven-month-old child, In recent weeks, Kerala has allowed inter-district State unit of the BJP are taunting the ruling Left Demo- positive in Kerala) might play in a possible COVID-19 had comorbidities. As on June 16, of the 2,543 cases in travel, and reopened restaurants and cafes and places of cratic Front (LDF) government on this issue, obviously spread; two, about the number of health workers getting Kerala, 2,148 (77.93) were those who had travelled from worship on a limited scale. But Sunday curfew continues. seeking political mileage. This, after the State toyed with infected in the State or being forced to go into quarant- other places into the State and 395 (22.07 per cent) had Meanwhile, nearly 4.5 lakh children from State gov- the idea of insisting that Keralites who are planning to ine; and three, the possibility of a spread through un- got the infection from contacts. ernment-run schools and those in CBSE (Central Board return by chartered flights should carry with them certi- known contacts. Meanwhile, even as the third phase of the Vande of Secondary Education) schools are being offered classes ficates received within 48 hours showing that they have For instance, in Thrissur, one of the worst affected Bharat mission to bring expatriate Indians back home online or through the popular VICTERS television chan- tested negative for COVID-19. districts, several persons were infected through contacts began on June 11, as many as 40,653 persons had already nel. There are, however, complaints of exclusion because In the context of concerns over physical distancing in on June 12. They included four sanitation workers in the registered from other countries. In all, 5,59, 125 persons of the digital divide, including lack of Internet connectiv- flights among fellow travellers, the idea seemed a civic corporation, four headload workers at the ware- from other States and abroad had registered in the ity or access to devices, and about the handicap of prudent one. But opposition leaders described it as “im- house, one ambulance driver and a remand prisoner. NORKA ROOTS website for returning to Kerala. classroom interactions. practical” if not “inhuman”, as in many countries, espe- On June 14, in Kattakkada panchayat in Moreover, Kerala is expecting more than 300 cially those in the Gulf region, obtaining such certificates Thiruvananthapuram district, a public health worker chartered flights to bring 50,000 to one lakh passengers D IGITAL INITIATIVES ON EDUCATION was a herculean and costly task and could dash the hopes tested positive, but despite the district administration’s from abroad in the coming days. But despite these initial hiccups, the State Education of those wishing to return home. The case of the return- efforts to find out the source of the infection, no epidemi- COVID Care Centres have been established in all Department’s remarkable effort in reaching digital facil- ing expatriates is, therefore, a politically sensitive issue in ological link, such as confirmed travel history or contact districts with a view to accommodating people who need ities to nearly 2.5 lakh students who did not have them, Kerala, which has a huge expatriate population. with known COVID positive cases, could be established. institutional quarantine facilities. The quarantine status providing food at home to anganwadi students, and dis- Health Minister K.K. Shailaja, however, said that the More than 500 contacts of the patient, spread over six as on June 15 was 1,20,727, with 1,18,704 persons under- tributing TV sets and, in some cases digital devices, to need for a COVID-negative certificate for those returning wards of the panchayats, have been traced. All the wards going home quarantine and 2,023 in hospitals. underprivileged students with the help of volunteers, are by chartered flights was only a suggestion made by the were declared containment zones and the contacts were From June 12, with the increase in the number of some of the model initiatives in recent months. State as a precautionary measure for the safety of passen- asked to undergo home quarantine. Keralites coming from other places testing positive in the With only a few months remaining for the local body gers travelling in these flights. It was for the Centre to The above instances are only indicative. Such cases State, the governments began allowing them to stay at elections, the opposition has been trying to pick holes in take a final decision on it, she said. २

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 56 57 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 COVER STORY percentage of the confirmed cases) at 2.32 per cent was period in Haryana, even though the latter had only 1,213 lower than the national average of 2.89 per cent. cases on May 25. According to the State government data R AJASTHAN on COVID facilities in the State, there are 25,490 isola- H IGH TESTING RATES tion beds apart from 7,028 oxygen-supported beds, 1,753 Rajasthan has conducted 7,886 tests per million of the ICU beds and 899 ventilators distributed among dedic- population against 4,312 in Gujarat, 5,620 in Maha- ated COVID hospitals, COVID health centres and dedic- rashtra, 6,624 in Haryana and 3,138 in Madhya Pradesh. ated COVID centres. Since the number of active The positivity ratio has been low as a result of high confirmed cases never crossed 3,000, a substantial part testing. As of June 15, Rajasthan had 12,981 confirmed of this infrastructure must have been organised at the Stable for now cases out of 6,09,296 samples tested, which gives a posit- expense of possible non-COVID treatment. ivity ratio of 2.13 per cent against the national positivity Public health experts like Narendra Gupta, who is The COVID-19 infection threatened to go out of control at least twice ratio of 5.8 per cent. part of the People’s Health Movement, feel that non- COVID cases in Rajasthan seem to be more thinly COVID patients were ignored in this entire period. In in Rajasthan, but the government managed to retrieve the situation spread over a wider geographical area and are not con- Jaipur, for instance, the Sawai Man Singh Government centrated in a few hotspots, unlike in other States. In Hospital and the ESI hospital were converted to COVID each time. BY T.K. RAJALAKSHMI Madhya Pradesh, out of 10,935 cases, almost 58 per cent hospitals, leaving patients suffering from other ailments were concentrated in Indore and Bhopal. In Maha- at the mercy of private hospitals. THE GOVERNMENT OF RAJASTHAN, WHICH the period when the lockdown restrictions were eased. rashtra, Mumbai alone accounted for almost 54 per cent According to Anil Goswami, who represents the Ra- tided over a phase of political uncertainty when some On April 1, Rajasthan had 120 confirmed cases, but of the cases while Thane and Pune together accounted for jasthan Nagrik Manch, which is a broad front of civil attempts were allegedly made to topple the government, the figure increased to 1,888 by April 22. The number of 28 per cent of the cases. In Gujarat, Ahmedabad accoun- society organisations, the emergence of cases in parts of seems to have handled the COVID-19 situation fairly active cases increased from 117 to 1,517 in the same ted for over 70 per cent of the cases, followed by Surat Mewar and Marwar regions might have been caused by well. period. After that, while new cases continued to be repor- with 11 per cent. In comparison, in Rajasthan the highest the return of migrant workers from Surat and On June 10, Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot expressed ted, the number of recoveries neutralised the spike so number of cases is in Jaipur, which accounted for 19.1 per Ahmedabad in Gujarat. Rajasthan, which is an origin as concern about the emergence of fresh cases between that the number of active cases remained stable. On May cent of the cases, followed by Jodhpur with under 17 per well as a destination State for migrants, seemed to have June 1 and June 10, which he felt was caused by greater 10, the number of active cases was down to 1,465. cent, and Bharatpur and Pali at 8.16 and 6.18 per cent mixed success as far as the movement of migrants to and inter-State movement in the “Unlock-1” period. He cau- In the two weeks after that, however, the number of respectively. Udaipur, Nagaur and Kota lay between 4 from the State was concerned. Goswami said that while tioned that the inter-State movement of people must be confirmed cases rose from 3,814 on May 10 to 7,536 on and 5 per cent each in terms of confirmed cases. There- there was a record of the migrant workers who travelled regulated and that people moving in and out of the State May 26; and the number of active cases more than fore, the cases in Rajasthan have a wider geographical by buses and train, there was little record of those who should be screened. He also said that home quarantine doubled to 3,090. But then again the daily recoveries spread compared with other States where cases tend to walked back home. should be strictly followed. compensated for the new cases being reported. So on be concentrated in a few hotspots. This poses some There were other problems, too. “In the Shramik The State twice faced a situation when the number of June 15, there were only 2,895 active cases. This meant unique challenges to containment. trains, there was hardly any social distancing. We were active cases threatened to become overwhelming, yet on that the State had achieved a 75.38 per cent recovery rate Between May 25 and June 15, 5,681 cases were added there helping distribute food and water, and we saw the both occasions it managed to stabilise the situation. The by June 15, which was way ahead of the national average to the 7,300 confirmed cases that the State had on May situation,” Goswami said. He also felt that in some dis- more recent occasion on which it managed to do so was in of 52.47 per cent. Also, the fatality rate (deaths as a 25. This was less than the numbers added in the same tricts like Bundi, Pratapgarh or Ganganagar, the actual number of infections would not come to light as testing facilities were not available, and the district hospitals were in a bad shape. FOLK ARTISTS “The samples of cases in Bundi district would be sent perform at the to Kota and it would take three days for results to come. Jantar Mantar in Similarly, samples taken in Dholpur would be sent to a Jaipur after the testing centre in Bharatpur. Whether the samples are Rajasthan sent with proper paraffin wrapping is not known. In government many places, small private clinics are charging the moon decided to reopen for treating non-COVID patients. In villages, quarantin- historical ing does not work. A quarantined person is allowed to monuments, forts graze his cattle and then return to the camp. Now the and museums for government itself is saying that people should quarantine tourists, on June 1. themselves at home. The quarantine facilities are being closed down,” he said. The Rajasthan government, he MIGRANT families said, had not yet allowed the opening up of places of travel to their villages religious worship, which was a good thing. during the fifth phase Rajasthan has a relatively low population density. Its of the nationwide cities are not as densely populated as metros like Mum- lockdown, in Beawar bai, Kolkata, Delhi or Ahmedabad. This might have on June 3. They worked to Rajasthan’s advantage. In view of the impend- travelled 591 ing monsoon, the government has planned a special kilometres from Uttar awareness campaign involving health workers between Pradesh to Pali in June 21 and June 30 in order to ensure that unlocking is OHIT JAIN PARAS JAIN OHIT TI २ P R Rajasthan. accompanied by the necessary precautions.

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 58 59 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 COVER STORY many paramedical staff deployed at various hospitals to In a novel initiative, the government launched a spe- treat returnee migrant workers have contracted the cial drive by engaging ASHA (accredited social health O DISHA infection. activist) and ANM (auxiliary nurse midwife) workers to The administration has enforced weekend shutdown undertake a door-to-door survey between June 16 and until June 30 in 11 migration-prone districts that have July 31 to find out if any member of any family had recorded the maximum number of cases. Quarantine symptoms of COVID-19. The samples would be collected measures are being enforced strictly to prevent com- and tested immediately. munity transmission. Senior officials claimed that Odisha had become a The Ganjam district administration has ordered the model State in managing the COVID-19 situation in the Change in approach continuation of lockdown and weekend shutdown until country with a high rate of testing and recovery and a low the end of June. mortality rate. The only encouraging indication is that most of the With importance given to detection, testing is being Odisha is re-strategising its approach to cope with the rising number new cases were detected in the temporary quarantine conducted in 17 testing labs in 10 districts, including the of infections by reinforcing restrictions and ramping up testing centres where returnee migrants were sent for institu- Regional Medical Research Centre, Bhubaneswar. The tional quarantine with the active participation of the number of samples tested had crossed two lakhs by mid- in migration-prone zones. BY PRAFULLA DAS panchayati raj institutions. June and efforts were on to ensure that all those having However, the authorities are worried about the symptoms or coming in contact with infected persons steady increase in cases reported in the community. At were tested. AS THE FIGHT AGAINST COVID-19 GETS cases could start showing a decline when the returnees least 10 per cent of the cases found in the first two weeks As per official date provided on June 16, the govern- tougher in Odisha with the number of cases almost doub- completed their quarantine period and the samples of all of June belonged to the local community outside the ment has created a bed capacity of 7,62,345 in 16,815 ling in the first fortnight of June, the State government is those with symptoms and their close contacts were quarantine facilities. temporary medical centres in 6,798 gram panchayats re-strategising its approach to cope with the emerging tested. Although the government had announced that ag- across the State for quarantining returning migrants and crisis. As per the government’s estimate, more than 5.5 lakh gressive contact tracing was being carried out, more and providing COVID health services. However, in some mi- Although the cases are not rising at the scale wit- Odia migrants had returned to the State by June 15. But more local cases started emerging. The month of June gration-prone pockets the number of returnees out- nessed in most other parts of the country, the administra- going by the current trend, the situation is not likely to began with 31 of the 141 positive cases tagged as locals. numbered the beds at these centres, while in other areas tion is making serious efforts to ramp up testing and improve soon as many migrants are still returning every The subsequent days consistently recorded infection in the beds were vacant. reinforce restrictions in migration-prone zones to con- day. the community putting the administration on a spot of Odisha is one of the States that has borne the entire tain the spread of the virus. The first COVID-19 positive case was detected in the bother. Of the 1,951 positive cases detected in the first cost, from testing to treatment, of COVID patients. This The government said the next four to six weeks were State on March 15. On June 15, the total number of cases half of June, 199 were local contacts. is giving the people the strength to cope with the pan- likely to be crucial because the number of cases was rising stood at 4,055, of which 1,951 cases were detected in the Odisha, however, is not taking chances. When one demic, and adhere to the restrictions that are in force to with many returnee migrant workers testing positive. first half of June. The majority of the new cases were COVID-19 case was found in the largest slum in contain the infection. The authorities said that as the majority of migrants found in migration-prone zones. The fight against the Bhubaneswar, samples of 250 persons belonging to the The State police have won the appreciation of Chief had returned from other States and abroad, detection of virus has become tougher since at least 16 doctors and locality were tested and all were found negative. Minister Naveen Patnaik for enforcing the lockdown and weekend shutdown and making security arrangements at the quarantine centres, which have been declared containment zones. By June 11, the police had collected Rs.1,25,84,180 as fine from people for not wearing a mask in public places. The use of mask in public was made mandatory on April 9. The police collected a fine of Rs.11,74,350 for violation of physical distancing norms. Those fined included a Bharatiya Janata Party Member of Parliament and 20 of her party workers. Even as it was handling the health crisis, the State government devised and implemented schemes to create employment opportunities for migrant workers and daily wagers in order to reboot the economy. It announced the creation of 20 crore mandays under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act. A target has been fixed for digging 1.3 lakh farm ponds under the employment generation drive and planting 15 crore saplings by August end under the afforestation programme. As part of its rigorous efforts to contain the pandemic, the government urged the people to self-regulate in order ISWARANJAN ROUT ROUT ISWARANJAN B to save their family from coronavirus infection by using a POLICE personnel enforcing the STRANDED passengers seen outside the Bhubaneswar face mask, maintaining physical distancing and follow- shutdown in Bhubaneswar on June 7. railway station as city observes weekend shutdown on ing hand hygiene. It has to continue with its hard work to

ISWARANJAN ROUT ISWARANJAN २ B June 7. cope with the situation.

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 60 61 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 COVER STORY nomy will shrink by 0.2 per cent in the next fiscal year and gical friend, U.S. President Donald Trump, the Brazilian that more than 18 million of the country’s 74 million jobs President touted chloroquine as the drug that would save will be lost because of the pandemic. Brazilian lives and make the pandemic go away. “God is Brazilian. The chloroquine is right here,” he proclaimed B ANGLADESH in early March. Since then over 45,000 Brazilians have In Bangladesh, one of the most densely populated coun- died after contracting the coronavirus, and the daily tries in the world, the pandemic has hit hard. By the death toll now is the highest in the world. The Brazilian second week of June, Bangladesh had more than 70,000 Health Ministry had a proven record of fighting the Soaring numbers recorded cases of people infected with the virus. Experts epidemics that hit the country in the past and had advoc- expect the numbers to double before the end of June. The ated physical distancing and other safe practices as soon Except for a handful of countries, the rest of the world continues to testing facilities are limited. In the limited tests that were as the coronavirus surfaced. Initially, Bolsonaro too sup- conducted, it was found that one out of five people tested ported the Ministry’s actions but then suddenly took a grapple with the COVID-19 pandemic. BY JOHN CHERIAN in Dhaka, the capital, turned out to be positive. The diametrically opposite stand. Luiz Henrique Mandetta, number of deaths due to the pandemic has not been the Health Minister at the time, ascribed Bolsonaro’s properly quantified according to health professionals in abrupt change of stance to his prioritising economic THE PANDEMIC SURGES ON UNABATED, medical association in Punjab province reported that 40 the country and international agencies. stability over health. with Latin America now becoming the epicentre. South per cent of the doctors working in hospitals were infected The country has the lowest ratio of hospital beds to A study by the Sao Paulo Medical School estimates Asia is not too far behind for that matter. Countries that with the COVID-19 virus. There are reports of medical patients in the world. More than 34 doctors have already that the number of COVID-19 infections in Brazil could failed to prepare adequately to deal with the pandemic workers getting assaulted on a daily basis by relatives of died from the infection. The official death toll by the be 15 times higher than the official figures being put out. despite being given sufficient warning are now paying a COVID-19 patients angry with the unavailability of beds second week of June is around a thousand, but this figure Bolsonaro had ordered the mass production of heavy price. Only a handful of countries such as New or the treatment being given. in all probability is misleading. The national lockdown chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine in the pharmaceut- Zealand, South Korea, Cuba, Venezuela and Vietnam There are only 600 beds available for intensive care ordered by the government in the last week of March was ical laboratories run by the Brazilian military. Brazil had have been able to fight the virus without suffering signi- patients in a city such as Karachi that has a population of lifted in the first week of June even before the pandemic imported large quantities of raw material for the produc- ficant numbers of casualties. By the third week of June, more than 20 million. showed any signs of easing. A catastrophe seems to be in tion of the drugs from India. According to epidemiolo- Brazil, India and Mexico had higher death tolls per day The WHO estimates that Pakistan, the fifth most the offing in South Asia, with countries such as Nepal too gists, the country has wasted immense resources in than the United States. More than eight million people populous nation in the world, with a population of more witnessing a surge in infections. producing drugs that have a minimal impact on the around the world had been affected by the pandemic by than 200 million, has only around 750 dedicated ventil- If the situation in South Asia is dire, Latin America is treatment or curtailment of the virus. If the predictions mid June with around 440,000 recorded deaths. Even in ators for those affected by the pandemic. currently worse off. Brazil has recorded more deaths than by the Sao Paulo Medical School are accurate, Brazil the West, the death rate is being under-reported. So far, a Prime Minister Imran Khan was initially reluctant to all countries barring the U.S. Most Brazilians hold their would have had more than five million patients by the real accounting of the mortality rate has yet to be done order a lockdown, prioritising the economy over the President, Jair Bolsonaro, responsible for the mess the end of May. worldwide. pandemic threatening the lives of millions of citizens. He country finds itself in. He is the only head of state to Bolsonaro even now opposes quarantines and phys- As far as the infection rate is concerned, India has was, however, overruled by the military establishment. openly oppose any restrictions to stop the spread of the ical distancing measures and has vociferously encour- overtaken the United Kingdom and is now number four Imran Khan was of the view that a country like Pakistan coronavirus. After initially dismissing the deadly new aged his fellow citizens to carry on with life as usual. He after Russia. Pakistan and Bangladesh are also witness- could hardly afford the luxury of a lockdown, but the virus as nothing more dangerous than an attack of the flu, refuses to wear a mask and is seen every other day mixing ing a spike in infection rates. Pakistan lifted its national military establishment and he are now on the same page. he soon resorted to flaunting miracle cures. and shaking hands with his supporters. As the death lockdown on May 9, and within a month, the infection The World Bank has projected that the country’s eco- In late March, taking the cue from his close ideolo- rates started spiralling in early June, the President rate surged to over 100,000. The government is no doubt ordered the government to stop publishing comprehens- aware that the real numbers are much more. According ive statistics on the number of deaths and the infection to figures released in the second week of June, at least rate of the coronavirus. 2,400 Pakistanis have died after contracting the virus. “We are sorry for all the dead, but that’s everyone’s The World Health Organisation (WHO) has put destiny,” the President remarked when the death rate Pakistan on the list of the top 10 countries where the virus was soaring in the first week of June. is on the rampage. The Brazilian Supreme Court had to intervene and force the Health Ministry to keep on releasing the data P AKISTAN regarding the scope and trajectory of the spread of The WHO wrote to the government in Islamabad COVID-19 in the country. Gilmar Mendes, a Supreme strongly criticising its handling of the pandemic and the Court judge, described the government’s “manipulation decision to lift the lockdown. The WHO has recommen- of statistics a tactic of totalitarian regimes”. He said that ded that the lockdown be reimposed, stating that the “the trick would not eventually absolve the government government had not met any of the criteria needed for its from an eventual genocide”. lifting. Experts have warned that the virus will peak in Two eminent doctors who had served as Health Min- July/August and could claim more than a million lives. isters in the Federal government left office in the last The medical infrastructure in Pakistan is in no condition couple of months because of unscientific diktats that to cope with the pandemic. Very little testing is being emanated from the presidency on the ways to handle the done. The mortality rate among doctors is among the outbreak. The new appointee as Health Minister is a highest in the region. In the first week of June, the serving military officer with no expertise in communic- able diseases. He promptly issued guidelines for the AT A LAUNCH terminal in Dhaka on June 1 after the widespread use of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine UNIR UZ ZAMAN/AFP UZ UNIR government loosened lockdown restrictions. M to treat patients.

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 62 63 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 UHAMMAD SAJJAD/AP UHAMMAD M WAITING TO collect identity cards for aid outside a government office in Peshawar, Pakistan, on June 16.

The President urged his supporters to stage public country. With the health system unable to cope and the protests against State governments that have imposed economy in free fall, there have been growing demands lockdowns and quarantine measures while discouraging for the impeachment of an incompetent President. Legis- the use of hydroxychloroquine. Eduardo Bolsonaro, the lators have already made 35 impeachment requests President’s politician son, claimed that there was a con- against him. The majority of them were submitted after spiracy hatched by the left wing to downplay the efficacy the pandemic hit Brazil. “Having failed to unite Brazili- of the drug in the treatment of COVID-19. “The objective ans in the face of a pandemic, Bolsonaro and his govern- is to demonise the medicine even though they know that ment could be the first to be toppled by it,” said Robert it is effective to save lives,” he said. Damares Alves, an Muggah, director of the Igarape Institute, a Brazilian evangelical pastor and the Minister of Human Rights, think tank. Bolsonaro is already being investigated for Family and Women, described hydroxychloroquine as a corruption and electoral misconduct. The most damning “miracle drug”. charge against him is that he poses a threat to the public All the clinical trials carried out so far have found the health system in Brazil. drug to be ineffective in the treatment of the coronavirus. The President and his supporters, on the other hand, The Bolsonaro government is in fact trying to implement are calling for the dissolution of the Congress and the a “herd immunity” policy with its propagation of the Supreme Court and for the reimposition of military rule chloroquine-based drugs. to deal with the growing instability. As it is, Bolsonaro The Brazilian police launched raids on the offices and has filled his Cabinet with military men, both serving and homes of Bolsonaro’s right-wing supporters who have retired. There are more military men in the Cabinet now been staging noisy demonstrations almost on a daily basis than there were in the two decades when the army ruled in major cities demanding the lifting of the lockdown and Brazil. the imposition of military rule. As the evidence of corrup- Augusto Heleno, a retired general serving as the Na- tion, mismanagement and malfeasance pile up against the tional Security Adviser to the President, warned of “un- President, his only hope for survival comes from sections predictable consequences for national stability” after the of the Brazilian military. Eduardo Bolsonaro recently Supreme Court let a corruption enquiry into Bolsonaro’s stated that military rule was inevitable. “It is no longer an supporters go forward. Bolsonaro served in the army and opinion about if but when it will happen,” he said. has at every opportunity been praising the military’s There is suspicion that the business cronies and polit- right-wing coup of 1964. ical associates of the President are funding these sections He is the only democratically elected President to of the military. The anti-Bolsonaro protests in cities such virtually be requesting his army to stage a coup and take as Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are much bigger and over. He thinks only the army can clear the mess he has spontaneous. Bolsonaro’s public approval ratings have created in the country mainly through his disastrous dramatically sagged after the coronavirus devastated the handling of the pandemic. २

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 64 COVER STORY Nightmare in Brazil Jair Bolsonaro’s cavalier attitude towards the spread of COVID creates a serious health crisis in Brazil with the country emerging as one of the epicentres of the pandemic. BY VIJAY PRASHAD

BRAZIL WAS THE FIRST NATION TO REGISTER successor, Nelson Teich, an oncologist, could not agree a case of COVID-19 in February. Since then, the govern- with Bolsonaro on the anti-viral drugs; he lasted a ment, led by the far-right Jair Bolsonaro, has been cava- month. These doctors were replaced by Eduardo lier about the spread of the virus and the impact of the Pazuello, an Army General who had managed security disease. The President has minimised the severity of the logistics during the Olympics. He has no medical back- virus and has called it a “little flue” and a “cold”. Bolson- ground but is loyal to Bolsonaro. Neither Bolsonaro nor aro has mocked the media for its “hysteria” and denied Pazuello has placed a comprehensive plan before the the rising infection and death rate in his country. In public to tackle the outbreak. Health officials bemoan the March, he said Brazilians “never catch anything” even lack of a national strategy. when they dive into sewage, and that they probably have In early June, the Health Ministry took down the the antibodies to halt the spread of the virus. As of this official website for a day. It was this site that had been writing in mid-June, there are almost 900,000 con- publishing the COVID-19 data. When the site returned firmed cases in Brazil with over 44,000 fatalities. Brazil the next day, all the data on past COVID-19 cases had has emerged as one of the epicentres of the global vanished. There was simply no way of assessing any pandemic. official numbers on infection rates or death rates. The Rather than follow the basic protocols established by opposition criticised this action, with Rodrigo Maia, also the World Health Organisation (WHO), such as testing, a politician of the right, saying on twitter that “the health contact tracing, physical distancing, and social isolation ministry is trying to cover the sun with a sieve. It is urgent of hotspot areas, Bolsonaro dismissed the contagiousness to restore the credibility of statistics. A ministry that of the virus and encouraged his supporters to take to the distorts numbers creates a parallel universe to avoid streets in mass rallies. As Governors of the various facing the reality of facts”. It took the intervention of the provinces not associated with Bolsonaro’s politics estab- Supreme Court to restore the data. lished quarantine measures, Bolsonaro fought hard to Bizarrely, Bolsonaro told his supporters to “invade” undermine them. He mocked any attempt to be serious hospitals and inspect the COVID-19 wards and see that about the virus and dismissed concerns as essentially they are largely empty. He continues to contest the num- anti-national. bers of those infected. On June 4 and June 9, this is just Like United States President Donald Trump, Bolson- what his party members and others did. They photo- aro masqueraded as a health profes- graphed the ICU wards and disrupted sional, urging his Health Ministry to the integrity of the isolation sections. encourage the use of chloroquine and “This behaviour endangers the phys- hydroxychlorquine as an antidote to ical integrity of the brave profession- the disease. It is true that these anti- als who dedicate themselves to viral drugs are being studied for their reversing a health care crisis unpre- efficacy in fighting COVID-19, but cedented in the country’s history,” there is as yet no evidence that these said Brazil’s Attorney General Au- are viable treatment methods. Two of gusto Aras. Bolsonaro sniffed at this Bolsonaro’s Health Ministers had to criticism. exit when they disagreed with their Anger and distress at Bolsonaro’s leader over the pandemic. Luiz Hen- deliberate incompetence was cap- rique Mandetta, a pediatric ortho- tured by a statement made by Brazil’s paedist, had clashed with Bolsonaro former President Luiz Inacio Lula da DRIANO MACHADO/REUTERS DRIANO about physical distancing and about A Silva. Speaking to CNN from his the anti-viral drugs; he was fired. His PRESIDENT Jair Bolsonaro. home in Sao Paolo, Lula said that

65 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 INDIA & CHINA Line of conflict The Galwan Valley incident, one of the most serious confrontations between India and China since the disastrous 1962 war, threatens to

disrupt the bilateral relations forged over a few decades. BY JOHN CHERIAN

FOR the first time in 45 years, a ANDRE COELHO/GETTY IMAGES sizeable number of Indian soldiers were killed in the line of duty along AT A CROWDED market in Rio de Janeiro on June 17. tricks against Lula, could not stomach this behaviour; he the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the resigned. The Supreme Court would not allow the ap- de facto border between India and Bolsonaro has been “irresponsible” and “negligent”. pointment of Ramagem, so Bolsonaro appointed China. The Indian Army confirmed Bolsonaro, Lula said, “has committed many crimes of Ramagem’s close associate Rolando Souza to the post. in a statement on June 16 that 20 irresponsibility and I think he already deserves to be Rolando Souza came to office and removed the man who Indian soldiers, including a senior punished for that.” His punishment should be his im- was overseeing the investigation of Bolsonaro and his officer, were killed in the altercation peachment from office. family. and violence that took place in the Bolsonaro has been regularly meeting with the milit- disputed Galwan Valley in the A UTO-COUP? ary members of his Cabinet and with other military men Ladakh sector. There is a serious political crisis in Brazil that comes to secure consensus that the Supreme Court is out of line. The statement emphasised that alongside the health crisis. Society is polarised with a firm At a May protest at the court, the tone was chilling. there were many casualties on the right-wing among considerable sections that remain be- Rumours of an “auto-coup” sizzled through the country. other side too, but there has so far hind Bolsonaro and are itching for a strong response been no confirmation from the against Brazil’s left. Bolsonaro has indicated that he is F ORA BOLSONARO People’s Liberation Army (PLA) not averse to setting aside the country’s Constitution and As the lockdown began to ease, Domingo Alves of the about deaths and injuries on the bringing in the Army to govern with him. This is very Health Intelligence Laboratory said, “We are sending the Chinese side. A few critically injured chilling. population to a slaughterhouse. The city of Sao Paolo Indian soldiers remain in hospital. Bolsonaro filled his own Cabinet with military men opens its shops today, with a rising death rate; this shows Ten soldiers whom the PLA had and has often spoken favourably about the long period of a cynicism both from the Governor of the state of Sao taken prisoner were released on June military rule from 1964 to 1985. The Constitution pre- Paolo and now from the city’s mayor.” 18. A SATELLITE IMAGE vents a return to military rule and makes it illegal to A hashtag began in Brazil, #ficaemcasa or #StayHo- The Indian Army said that the taken on June 16 speak about the suspension of democracy. Bolsonaro has me,to urge Brazilians not to listen to the frivolous and incident happened even as the “de- showing the Galwan skirted the edge of legality with his statements. He, and dangerous statements from Bolsonaro. The only reason escalation” process was going on in Valley, which lies his Vice President, General Hamilton Mourao, are open to go out has been to join the protests against the callous the area. The PLA’s version is that between China’s Tibet adherents of military power. This is not a new phe- policy of the government and its threats of a military Indian forces illegally crossed the and India’s Ladakh. nomenon for them. coup. Residents of the cities on occasion go out on their LAC in the dead of night in contra- What piqued Bolsonaro was an investigation by the balconies and bang pots and pans–a panelço–to call for vention of the agreement reached on Supreme Court over corruption allegations against his Bolsonaro’s impeachment. June 6 between senior commanders family. His former Justice Minister Sergio Moro, who The slogan is Bolsonaro Out–Fora Bolsonaro. An- of the two armies. played a disruptable role in the case against Lula, went to other campaign, initiated by the economist Eduardo The PLA issued a statement put- prosecutors and provided an eight-hour deposition Moreira, emerged with the hashtag #Somes70porcent or ting all the blame on the Indian about Bolsonaro’s attempt to interfere in this case. #WeAre70percent, reflecting a majority that seems to be Army. “The Indian Army broke their Leaked recordings of Bolsonaro’s conversations with against Bolsonaro’s handling of the crisis. promise and once again crossed the Moro show that he wanted the head of the Federal Police, Protests against Bolsonaro, however, have been met Line of Actual control to engage in Mauricio Valeixo, to be replaced. When Moro refused, with rising right-wing violence. illegal activities,” it said. “They delib- Bolsonaro fired Valeixo and brought in a friend of his This reflects the uneven polarisation in the country, erately launched a provocative as- sons, Alexandre Ramagem (of Brazilian intelligence), as with the right-wing eager to escalate any demonstration sault, leading to an intense physical the replacement. into violence precisely because it does not command a clash that caused death and injury.”

२ INC./AFP LABS, LANET Even Moro, who was not above using the dirtiest majority of the population. Each side was adamant that the P

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 66 67 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 other side was responsible for trig- Karakoram Pass, a de facto trijunc- gering the confrontation. Although tion between China, Pakistan and no bullets were fired, the June 15 India. The all-weather 225-km sec- incident is one of the most serious tion of the road, which India finished confrontations between India and constructing in 2019, is situated just China since the disastrous 1962 war. 20 km from the Karakoram Pass. Interestingly, it was China that first The new road will help the Indian lodged a complaint about the incid- Army move soldiers and heavy ent. Vikram Misri, the Indian Am- weaponry quickly to areas to which it bassador to Beijing, was called to the did not have easy access earlier. Be- Foreign Ministry for a meeting with sides beefing up the road and rail Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Luo network along the LAC in a bid to Zhaohui to discuss the issue. keep up with the infrastructure de- Indian External Affairs Minister velopment on the other side, the In- S. Jaishankar and Chinese Foreign dian Army has raised two new Minister Wang Yi had a telephonic Mountain Divisions, each with a conversation later. Following the strength of 15,000 troops, capable of discussion, the blame game contin- launching quick-reaction ground of- ued. Jaishankar said that China was fensives against the PLA. responsible for “the violence and the casualties” and urged Beijing “to re- B IG DEFENCE BUDGETS assess its actions and take corrective China and India have the second and steps”. third biggest defence budgets in the Wang said that it was the Indian world. According to the Stockholm military’s “violent” and “adventurous International Peace Research Insti- TI conduct” that had led to the unto- P tute, in 2019 China spent $261 bil- ward incident. He urged the Indian lion on defence and India spent $71 government to “strictly control” its ARMY PERSONNEL pay tribute to the mortal remains of jawans of the the Galwan Valley where the latest countries to jointly fight the billion. The U.S., in contrast, spent “front-line troops and immediately Bihar regiment killed in Ladakh’s Galwan Valley, at Jaiprakash Narayan clash took place. In the statement coronavirus pandemic. In fact, the $732 billion on defence last year. The cease all provocative actions”. Airport in Patna on June 18. issued after the bloody clash, the international community was sur- U.S. Congress is preparing to pass Addressing the nation on televi- PLA claimed that the “sovereignty of prised that the two countries were the Forging Operational Resistance sion on June 18, Prime Minister Nar- first week of May after Indian and manders on June 6. After this meet- the Galwan Valley always belonged confronting each other militarily in to Chinese Expansion Act that will endra Modi vowed that the sacrifices Chinese soldiers had a serious phys- ing, the Ministry of External Affairs to China”. The India has strenuously the midst of a global pandemic. The authorise an additional $43 billion of the dead soldiers “would not be in ical confrontation on the shores of spokesperson said that the two sides contested this assertion, but China Chinese Foreign Ministry also issued in defence spending. The Pentagon vain”. He said that the country the Pangong Tso (lake) situated at an would keep on talking “to ensure had refused to discuss withdrawal a statement saying that actions were has again shifted from its “war on wanted “peace but if provoked, India altitude of 4,200 metres. Both sides peace and tranquillity in the border from the area, claiming that it always being taken by both the sides to terror” strategy to “great power is capable of giving a befitting reply”. consider the disputed area strategic- areas”. had control over the mountain “ameliorate the border situation”. competition”. However, since the June 15 clash, ally important and have been com- At the same time, Indian officials ranges on the banks of the Galwan According to the reports appear- The PLA was conducting milit- both sides have committed them- peting with one another in recent said that the Indian Army would river. The Indian military post in ing in the Indian media, after the ary exercises in the border region be- selves to disengaging their military years to create new facts on the continue to exert its military Galwan was the first to fall to the June 6 talks both sides had started fore the events in May. When the forces from close proximity along the ground. In the next couple of days, strength at the field level until it PLA in the 1962 war. Now, with the withdrawing to their earlier posi- PLA made its move on the LAC in disputed borders. there were reportedly three more reached an acceptable agreement PLA dominating the valley, it has tions in the Galwan and Hot Springs April this year, the Indian Army was At the same time, the Indian gov- physical encounters between the two with China. Speaking to an Indian strategic control over the Darbuk- areas and that the Chinese troops apparently caught by surprise and ernment is encouraging calls for the sides. news agency on June 12, General Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldi road that were staying put only along the was heavily outnumbered. Accord- boycott of Chinese goods and ser- Three of the clashes took place M.M. Naravane, Chief of the Army connects Leh to the Karakoram Pass shores of the Pangong Tso such as ing to Indian military sources, the vices. along the de facto border separating Staff, expressed the hope that area. the Finger 4 area claimed by India. PLA has effectively taken control of According to reports, instruc- Ladakh from Aksai Chin. The other through “continued dialogue all per- The External Affairs Ministry (The mountain folds around the 134- 60 sq. km of disputed land in the area tions have been given to the telecom clash took place more than 2,000 ceived differences will be set to rest”. said in a statement issued on June 16 km-long lake are referred to in milit- that is claimed by India. Home Min- sector and the Railways to cancel kilometres away in Naku La along The Indian Army chief had emphas- that the Chinese side had broken the ary jargon as fingers.) ister Amit Shah continues to vehe- contracts with Chinese companies. the Sikkim-Tibet border. After these ised that the situation along the LAC “consensus” that was arrived at after It is well known that the two sides mently deny that there has been any Most Indian political commentators, incidents in May, both the Indian “is under control”. Three days later, the meeting between the senior army have differing perceptions of where loss of Indian territory under Modi’s former diplomats and retired Army Army and the PLA had moved troops on June 15, the bloodiest confronta- commanders from both the sides on the LAC passes through in the Pan- watch. While addressing a virtual officers are calling on the govern- forward all along the 3,488-km-long tion in 45 years happened. Both sides June 6 to maintain the “status quo” gong Tso area. India asserts that the election rally for the upcoming elec- ment to formally junk its non- disputed boundary that the two continue to talk of de-escalation, but in the Galwan Valley. LAC starts at Finger 8, while China tions in West Bengal, Amit Shah aligned policy and join the United countries share. at the same time, they have been Just days before the bloody con- claims that it starts at Finger 2, compared India to the U.S. and Is- States-led military alliance against The situation along the eastern blaming each other for the Galwan frontation, Sun Weidong, China’s which is under Indian control. rael. He said that like these two China. Ladakh border calmed down after Valley incident. Ambassador to India, said that he The PLA has also established a countries that he perceived as his Tensions along the LAC had star- brigade-level talks were held The PLA had altered the status was hopeful of a diplomatic solution presence along the road to Daulat role models India knew how to de- ted escalating dramatically from the between PLA and Indian Army com- quo in eastern Ladakh, including in and highlighted the efforts of the two Beg Oldi, situated besides the fend itself. Divisional commanders

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 68 69 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 of the two armies continue to hold national interests. China expected thoritarian” China to follow “the rule talks on a regular basis to amicably India to stay away from military of law”. resolve the issue. groupings and alliances aimed at de- During the Doklam crisis, the The Chinese side admitted last railing its peaceful rise to super- Trump administration had poin- month itself that the clashes along power status. Modi stuck to the tedly refrained from supporting In- the LAC were triggered by India’s script for some time, talking about dia and had asked for an early construction of a road in the Galwan the need for India to retain strategic settlement of the issue. This time, the river valley, an area bounded by autonomy in foreign affairs and stay- Trump administration is pointedly Ladakh on one side and Aksai Chin ing away from military alliances. But asking India to take an uncomprom- on the other. One of the main reasons soon after, India further deepened its ising stand on the border impasse for the 1962 war was India’s claim strategic alliance with the U.S. by with China. over the Aksai Chin area. After the agreeing to a series of defence agree- President Donald Trump, to the war China had started constructing ments, including the Logistics Ex- surprise of the Indian establish- the Xinjiang-Tibet road to connect change Memorandum of ment, offered to mediate in the “ra- its two remote provinces. This road is Agreement, which gives U.S. forces ging border dispute” along the LAC even more important to China today access to Indian military bases. in the last week of May and claimed as it connects to the China Pakistan In the first week of June, India that he was in touch with the govern- Economic Corridor (CPEC), an im- signed an agreement with Australia ments of India and China. He also portant component of its ambitious giving that country a similar military told the media that he had a talk with Belt Road Initiative (BRI), in which basing agreement. The Modi govern- Modi on the issue and that the In- China has invested more than $60 ment is negotiating a similar agree- dian Prime Minister was “not in a billion. India and the U.S. are the ment with Japan. India has become good mood because of what is going only two notable critics of the BRI. openly supportive of the U.S. stance on with China”. Both India and Beijing believes that the two coun- on the South China Sea. India has China were quick to issue state- tries are plotting to undermine ma- also strengthened relations with ments saying that they would resolve jor components of the BRI such as Taiwan, which China considers a their issues bilaterally and that there the CPEC. breakaway province. Under the was no need for any third-party ar- Chinese commentators naturally Modi government, India has been bitration. put the blame on India for the rise in transforming itself into a virtual Indian officials were quick to TI tensions along LAC. “According to front-line state in the military stra- P deny at the time that Modi had asked the Chinese military, it is India tegic offensive that the U.S. has de- Trump to mediate or had, for that which forced its way into the Galwan cided to launch against China. The CPEC passes. Amit Shah made a AN ARMY CONVOY moves along the Srinagar-Leh National highway in matter, spoken to him on the issue. Valley. So, India is changing the Pentagon is now giving more im- statement to this effect in Parliament Kashmir’s Ganderbal district on June 17. But the two leaders did speak to one status quo along the LAC,” said Long portance to India than it does to the last November. In the new map, the other a few days later, on June 2. The Xingchun, president of the Chengdu countries in the North Atlantic Indian government also included the Indian side admitted that the recent Institute of World Affairs. The latest Treaty Organisation military disputed Kalapani area claimed by incidents on the border and the con- incidents along the LAC are the most alliance. Nepal as part of its territory, dramat- troversy generated by the Trump ad- serious since the Doklam standoff ically reopening a festering territ- ministration on the functioning of between the two militaries that las- T RIFURCATION OF JAMMU AND orial dispute with another the World Health Organisation ted more than two months in 2017. K ASHMIR neighbour. The government in Kath- figured in the discussions. After the India had rushed troops to the The Indian government’s decision to mandu claimed at the time that the June 15 incident, the U.S. State De- Bhutan-China border to stop the change the constitutional status of Government of India had with one partment said that it was “closely PLA from building a road there. Jammu and Kashmir had come in for cartographic stroke stolen 2 per cent monitoring” the situation. “Both In- China was taken by surprise by the strong criticism from China. Incid- of Nepalese territory. dia and China have expressed a de- Indian Army’s move, which came ents along the Ladakh sector of the After the recent incidents along sire to de-escalate, and we support a just before Prime Minister Modi and LAC have increased since the Modi the LAC, the Donald Trump admin- peaceful resolution to this dispute,” the President Xi Jinping were to government unilaterally changed the istration, which has seemed keen on the statement said. meet at a BRICS (Brazil, Russia, In- status of Jammu and Kashmir last triggering a new cold war with China Modi has accepted Trump’s in- dia, China and South Africa) summit year and converted Ladakh into a for some time, was quick to issue vitation to attend the G7 summit he in China. separate Union Territory. A map the statements branding China as an ag- proposes to host as a special invitee. After the face-off ended, the PLA Indian government published last gressor. Alice G. Wells, the U.S. State China has been excluded from the TI

remains ensconced in an all-weather November after the trifurcation of Department’s top official for South P summit despite being the second permanent military complex in Dok- the State shows Aksai Chin as part of Asia, said that China was using the A CONVOY on the Manali-Leh highway on June 19. biggest economy globally. Trump lam. Modi had met with Xi in Wuhan Indian-administered Ladakh. same tactics it used to make territ- wants to create a new G12 that will in April 2018 to defuse tensions Senior leaders of the Bharatiya orial gains in the South China Sea. In would only be the U.S. that would role in the signing of the India-U.S. include India and Russia. along the LAC and put bilateral rela- Janata Party openly talked of recap- a statement issued in May, she stand with India against “the con- nuclear deal and the forging of close The Russian Foreign Ministry tions back on track after the Doklam turing the Pakistan-administered termed the Chinese behaviour “as stant Chinese probing of Indian sov- military ties between the two coun- said that it made no sense for such a episode. The two leaders solemnly part of Kashmir along with the Gil- provocative and disturbing”. She ereignty”. Nicholas Burns, a former tries, said that India and the U.S. grouping to be created if China was agreed not to jeopardise their core git-Baltistan area through which the said that at the end of the day it U.S. diplomat who had played a key should work together to force an “au- not part of it. २

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 70 71 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 POLITICS Crisis of leadership If the June 19 all-party videoconference raised hopes that the government had come around to engaging opposition parties in the handling of the border crisis with China, the way in which the Prime Minister brushed aside questions raised by the opposition showed that TI nothing had changed. BY VENKITESH RAMAKRISHNAN. P PRIME MINISTER Narendra Modi’s all-party videoconference. Also seen in the photograph are (clockwise from top right) Congress president Sonia Gandhi, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, EXPECTATIONS were high with extra seriousness. As many as terial colleagues seemed to turn up- Telangana Chief Minister K. Chandrashekar Rao and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. among the political class as well as 23 parties were invited to the online side down the very nature of the observers when Prime Minister Nar- videoconference, including 15 be- conflict that has built up in eastern concluding speech, Defence Minis- planned action that was directly re- Control and does not literally come endra Modi broke with his own con- longing to the opposition. Ladakh since early May. ter Rajnath Singh and Minister of sponsible for the resulting violence under international border specifica- ventions and called for an all-party Its formal outcome, as recorded External Affairs S. Jaishankar and casualties. It reflected an intent tions. Thus, the region where the meeting on June 19 with the pro- by several agencies and media for- D IVERSIONARY TACTIC briefed the conference. This was fol- to change the facts on ground in viol- face-off took place is not exactly In- fessed objective of discussing the ums, including the publicity depart- Consider this: making his first direct lowed by interventions by several ation of all our agreements to not dian territory. The second part of his face-off with China at the Galwan ments of the Union government, was statement on the happenings in east- leaders, including Congress presid- change the status quo.” statement says that no one has cap- valley in eastern Ladakh, which led that all parties asserted the sover- ern Ladakh, the Prime Minister ent Sonia Gandhi and Chief Minis- A day before this, on June 16, tured any Indian military posts. This to the killing of 20 Indian soldiers eignty and integrity of India and ex- stated categorically that India did ters Uddhav Thackeray MEA spokesperson Anurag Srivast- is also in keeping with this tactic of and grievous injuries to many more. pressed solidarity with the Indian not lose any territory to China in re- (Maharashtra) and Nitish Kumar ava said that the Chinese side had obfuscation because there are no Throughout his six-year-long re- Army and the government in its mil- cent months. “Neither have they in- (Bihar). “departed from the consensus to re- posts to be captured in the face-off gime, in two terms, Modi has been itary and diplomatic battle against truded into our border, nor has any A glaring characteristic of Modi’s spect the LAC in the Galwan valley”. region. distinctively antipathetic to the idea the country’s “superpower” neigh- post been taken over by them. final intervention was that it was He asserted that India was clear that The defence expert and colum- of conversing with the opposition bour. At its core, this outcome under- Twenty of our jawans were martyred, completely at variance with what Ex- all its activities were always within nist Colonel (Retd) Ajai Shukla ques- and building a consensus, whether scored the commitment of the but those who dared Bharat Mata, ternal Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar the Indian side of the LAC. “We ex- tioned Modi’s contentions on through formally convened all-party Indian political class as a whole to they were taught a lesson.” had recorded in his interaction with pect the same of the Chinese side,” he Twitter: “Did I see prime minister meetings or through informal the national interest. Accentuating the emotional quo- his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, said. @narendramodi redrawing the consultations. However, very many nuances re- tient, Modi went on to add: “Today, on June 17. In that interaction, S. The import of all these state- Sino-Indian border on TV today? Even in exceptional crisis situ- lating to the gathering, including the we possess the capability that no one Jaishankar had said that Chinese ments and the give-and-take Modi said nobody entered Indian ations such as the COVID-19 pan- manner in which it was conducted, can eye one inch of our land. India’s troops had sought to erect a structure between the Foreign Ministers was, territory. Has he conceded to China demic, the Prime Minister has the evident mismatch in the posi- armed forces have the capability to in Galwan valley on the Indian side clearly, that incursions and violent the Galwan River valley and Fingers systematically ignored appeals, espe- tions adopted by the Prime Minister move into multiple sectors at one of the Line of Actual Control (LAC). engagements had taken place, ac- 4-8 in Pangong Tso -- both on our cially from opposition parties, for in the meeting and the one advanced go.... Till now, those who were never He also recalled that in the meeting companied by disputes about occu- side of the LAC -- and where Chinese consultations across political and by the Minister of External Affairs questioned or stopped, now our of senior military commanders held pation of territories. But, in the June troops now sit. If, as @naren- ideological barriers. The manner in earlier, the studied indifference to jawans stop them and warn them at on June 6, an agreement was reached 19 conference, Modi’s contention dramodi said today, nobody entered which he stayed away from a formal pointed questions about the Galwan multiple sectors. Our Army has been on de-escalation and disengagement was that “neither has anyone in- Indian territory, what is all the fuss all-party meeting in February 2019, face-off, all once again laid bare the monitoring even those areas which along the LAC. truded into Indian territory nor has about? Why the military-to-military following the dastardly Pulwama fact that the conclave was not backed were not attended to earlier at the A statement issued by the Min- anyone captured any military posts”. dialogue, why the diplomatic talks, terror attack in which 40 Indian by any real intent or conviction about India-China border.... Whether it is istry of External Affairs (MEA) after So, what was the whole sequence of why the military disengagement, paramilitary personnel were killed, having broad-based consultations deployment, action, counter-ac- that interaction said: “Ground com- events that led to the killing of 20 why the deaths of 20 soldiers? put the stamp on the approach that and building consensus. Almost all tion… air, land or sea, whatever our manders were meeting regularly to Indian soldiers? Twenty Indian soldiers gave up their Modi has evolved in relation to the trappings of the meeting and its armed forces have to do to protect implement this consensus through- lives while evicting Chinese in- broad-based consultations. details in terms of presentation and our country they will do.” out the last week. While there was C LEVER WORDPLAY truders from Indian territory. But Thus, when the initial calls went structuring were marked by diver- Modi chose to speak at the fag some progress, the Chinese side Even a cursory analysis of Modi’s Modi says nobody entered Indian out for the June 19 meeting, there sionary manoeuvres, accompanied end of the conference, after which it sought to erect a structure in Galwan statement would expose the clever territory. Then where did these sol- was a sense that the Prime Minister by emotive rhetoric, both key fea- was declared closed. So, there was no valley on our side of the LAC. While play on words. His claim is that no diers die? Is Modi saying – like China and his government had taken the tures of the Modi style of governance. opportunity to seek clarifications on this became a source of dispute, the one has intruded into Indian territ- is saying – that they crossed into eastern Ladakh face-off with China In the process, Modi and his minis- his pronouncements. Before Modi’s Chinese side took premeditated and ory. Indeed, the LAC is Line of Actual China? Was Prime Minister @nar-

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 72 73 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 endramodi knowingly dissembling? Jaishankar: “All troops on border ciples arrived at are given due respect Modi government and its approach Or was he incorrectly briefed? Or duty always carry arms, especially and adhered to and that sanctity of to governance on a range of issues, does the government believe it can when leaving post. Those at Galwan the process should be scrupulously including management of defence say anything and get away with it in on 15 June did so. Long-standing maintained by China.” It expressed matters and diplomacy. The conduct this post-truth world?” practice (as per 1996 & 2005 agree- concern that Chinese infrastructure of the meeting once again high- Responding to similar questions ments) not to use firearms during built uncomfortably close to the tri- lighted the Modi government’s on a television debate, the Bharatiya face-offs.” junction had not been dismantled pathetic record in terms of engaging Janata Party (BJP) leader Rajiv Pra- The courtesy that Jaishankar and stressed the importance of with the opposition in accordance tap Rudy squarely branded anybody showed in engaging with Rahul building better ties, in this context, with the principles of democracy. raising questions on a statement Gandhi, was, however, an exception with other neighbouring countries. The omission of parties such as made by the Prime Minister as anti- rather than the rule. Apart from the “Despite the Ministry’s ambival- the AAP and the Rashtriya Janata national. “Many things may have sequence of events over the May- ence on whether this reflects some Dal (RJD) from the conference un- been said by many people, including June period, there are several in- sort of a deliberate encirclement derscored the impertinence with experts and senior officials of the stances showing how the Modi re- policy of India by China, the Com- which the government treats import- government and the Army at differ- gime has systematically ignored mittee would be inclined to see it as ant opposition parties. The AAP is ent points of time. But when the specific pointers and warnings about nothing less than a veiled contain- the ruling party in the national cap- Prime Minister makes an official an- China-India border issues. ment policy. Therefore, it is imperat- ital of Delhi and the principal oppos- nouncement, that is the final word. ive that India should urgently take ition in Punjab. The RJD is the Anybody who disputes that is insult- P OINTERS NOT HEEDED up the business of re-energising its principal opposition in Bihar, which ing the country, doing a great na- The fate of the 2018 parliamentary ties with our neighbouring countries. has borders with Nepal, the country tional disservice,” he argued. Standing Committee’s report after It is clear that we now have to con- which has recently developed ten- TI However, defence experts like P the Doklam crisis of 2017 is a case in tend with the possibility of some of sions in its relations with India and is Shukla and a number of retired EXTERNAL AFFAIRS MINISTER S. Jaishankar with his Chinese point. The report titled “Sino-India the countries in our neighbourhood closely associated with the current senior Army officers are of the view counterpart Wang Yi during a meeting in New York in September 2019. Relations Including Doklam, Border playing the China card as leverage in Chinese leadership. Evidently, omit- that Modi’s obfuscation and word- Situation and Cooperation in Inter- their relations with us,” the report ting both these parties was bad polit- play are working against the national sooner than later. So, the raising of dark about many crucial aspects of national Organisations” was submit- said. In October 2017, Jaishankar, ics and bad diplomacy. interest on the Sino-Indian border. A questions would continue.” the crisis and that it should have con- ted to Parliament in September who was then Foreign Secretary, ap- Cumulatively, what all these former Lieutenant General told Manish Tewari, too, flagged the vened the all-party meeting immedi- 2018. The committee, chaired by peared twice before the panel, which omissions and commissions expose Frontline: “That is the real national importance of continuing to raise ately after May 5 when it got Congress Member of Parliament had Rahul Gandhi, the Nationalist starkly is the resounding crisis of disservice. In one stroke, the Prime questions. He did so after Modi con- information about the Chinese Shashi Tharoor, had stressed the Congress Party’s (NCP) Supriya Sule leadership that India is going Minister has given up a position cluded the all-party onference with build-up on the border. “The entire need for a comprehensive border en- and the BJP’sFeroz Varun Gandhi, through. A closer inspection of the strongly maintained by successive his “final intervention”. Earlier in the country would like an assurance that gagement encompassing the opera- Raghav Lakhanpal and Swapan policies and governance measures governments India has had since In- day, Modi and his associates com- the status quo ante would be restored tions and functioning of the Indian Dasgupta as members. have time and again revealed that dependence and given superior cre- pletely bypassed and brushed aside and China will revert back to the ori- Army and China’s People’s Libera- Jaishankar deposed before the this crisis of leadership has existed dence to the Chinese position.” Congress president Sonia Gandhi’s ginal position on Line of Actual Con- tion Army (PLA), subsuming all es- panel that there had been “constant right through the first five years of pointed questions with utter disreg- trol,” she said. Modi and his tablished mechanisms for activity in many sectors every year”. the Modi government. But the Q UESTIONS RAISED ard. Asserting that her party had colleagues did not respond to any of confidence-building, including bor- Making a specific reference to the second term, which followed a bigger B Y OPPOSITION some specific questions for the gov- pertinent questions and points she der personnel’s meetings, flag meet- Ladakh sector, he said that in the majority for Modi and his party in Political leaders, including Com- ernment, she had said: “On which raised. However, many leaders of the ings, meetings of the Working case of Pangong Tso, this was a lake the May 2019 general election, has munist Party of India (Marxist) gen- date did the Chinese troops intrude ruling National Democratic Alliance Mechanism for Consultation and where the two countries’ respective been marked by an alarming descent eral secretary Sitaram Yechury, into our territory in Ladakh? When welcomed her assertion that “the en- Coordination on border affairs perceptions of each other’s Line of to what could well be described as Congress leader Manish Tewari and did the government find out about tire nation fully supported the gov- (WMCC) and other diplomatic chan- Actual Control did not coincide. “It is plummeting to the nadir. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) Rajya the Chinese transgressions into our ernment in the steps to defend nels. The report underscored that it like a long lake. They believe the line Not just the developments in Sabha member Sanjay Singh ques- territory? Was it on May 5th, as re- India’s territorial integrity”. would always be better to have a is here; we believe the line is there. eastern Ladakh, but the colossal tioned Modi’s contention. Sanjay ported, or earlier? Does the govern- sense of “healthy scepticism” while So, there is an overlapping area of messing up of the handling of the Singh said: “Has India dropped its ment not receive, on a regular basis, D ENIAL MODE dealing with China and had ex- dispute in terms of what each party COVID crisis, causing immeasurable claim on the Galwan Valley? If China satellite pictures of the borders of our Before the June 19 conference, pressed discontent over the neigh- says,” he said. hardships to the poor and the mar- has not occupied our territory then country? Did our external intelli- former Congress president Rahul bouring country’s “deliberate Clearly, what the world has wit- ginalised, especially lakhs of migrant what are we discussing with China?” gence agencies not report any un- Gandhi raised pointed queries on encirclement policy of India”. nessed unfold in eastern Ladakh was workers hailing from northern and Yechury said: “Then there is no con- usual activity along the LAC? Did the Twitter asking why Indian soldiers The report also pointed out that not unexpected or unforeseen. There eastern India, and the manner in flict? Why have our brave soldiers military intelligence not alert the who were killed were unarmed on China kept the border and LAC dis- were sufficient pointers and warn- which Nepal, hitherto a neighbour of been martyred? Why this all-party government about the intrusion and the China border. “How dare China putes alive in order to throw India off ings. But, in an individualistic pur- long-standing friendliness, adopted meeting? This blatant obfuscation of the build-up of massive forces along kill our UNARMED soldiers? Why balance whenever it desired: “In so suit of defence and foreign policies, openly adversarial diplomatic pos- the real picture is yet another act of the LAC, whether on the Chinese were our soldiers sent UNARMED many respects the track record of essentially dictated and controlled tures have all underscored this phe- criminal cover-up by the Modi gov- side or on the Indian side? In the to martyrdom?” he asked in his China does not inspire confidence in by the Prime Minister, these were nomenal plunge in terms of ernment. It may give the ruling dis- government’s considered view, was tweets. Unlike the indifference that the Committee. The Committee not addressed properly. leadership. The still unexplained tra- pensation some temporary reprieve, there a failure of intelligence?” was meted out to Sonia Gandhi’s would therefore strongly desire that What took place in the June 19 gic happenings in Galwan and Pan- but the doubts are real and are bound She went on to add that the gov- questions in the conference, Rahul India should prevail upon China to meeting, and also the run-up to it, gong Tso have aggravated a sense of to come back to haunt the country ernment had kept everyone in the Gandhi’s drew a response from ensure that application of the prin- has exposed several fault lines of the foreboding. २

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 74 75 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 INDIA AND NEPAL boundary of Nepal. But Nepal and decade. The ruling Communist Party ing to many Nepalese commentat- India have different interpretations is no longer willing to bend to diktats ors, China was, in fact, in favour of about the source of the river. Nepal from Delhi on issues pertaining to its the Indian road as it would improve insists that the river emerges from sovereignty. The statement of the In- cross-border trade between the two Limpiyadhura while India claims dian Army chief, General Manoj countries. There was palpable disap- that it starts from Lipulekh. The dis- Mukund Naravane, that Nepal’s ob- pointment in Kathmandu that puted land lies in between the jections to the construction of the Beijing had failed to raise objections branches of the two rivers. road were at “someone else’s behest” to a road being built through “dis- Ties on test However, it is also a fact that the ignited a furore in Nepal. General puted” territory. strategic areas of Limpiyadhura and Naravane was implying that China China’s People’s Liberation Nepal redraws its western border with India on map following Kalapani have been under effective was instigating Nepal to take an ag- Army (PLA) had objected to Indian differences over a road that India has built in what Nepal Indian control since the 1962 India- gressive diplomatic stand against In- road-building in eastern Ladakh and China war. The Nepalese monarchy, dia on the issue. To add fuel to the other areas along the Line of Actual maintains is a “disputed” zone. BY JOHN CHERIAN in a show of solidarity with the In- fire, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Control (LAC) but was silent on the dian government, had allowed the Yogi Adityanath warned Nepali Indian Army-built road leading to Indian Army to take over the areas as leaders to “remember what the trading post of Lipulekh. Nepal THE Narendra Modi govern- ing Communist Party, were quick to ulekh have historically been part of it confronted the Chinese army in the happened to Tibet”. had objected to the 2015 India- ment faces another challenge on its seize upon the issue of the new In- the country and were recognised as conflict. In those days, Nepal’s de- Nepal’s Defence Minister, Ish- China agreement that had opened up northern borders, adding to its prob- dian road passing through territory such in the 1816 Sugauli treaty fence policy was virtually supervised war Pokhrel, described the Indian the Lipulekh pass for bilateral trade lems in its immediate neighbour- that Nepal haslaid a claim to. Nepal signed with the British colonial ad- from Delhi. Army chief’s comments as an insult without its consent. Beijing views the hood. In the second week of May, the has insisted for long that the areas of ministration. Under the treaty, the The ground realities in Nepal to the thousands of Nepali soldiers dispute between India and Nepal as Nepalese government strongly pro- Limpiyadhura, Kalapani and Lip- Kali river is specified as the western have considerably changed in the last fighting in the Indian army. Accord- a purely bilateral one and has refused tested against the construction of a Himalayan road by the Indian Army through an area that Kathmandu considers a “disputed zone”. The 80- km “link road” that was inaugurated on May 8 by Defence Minister Ra- jnath Singh, lies at a three-way junc- tion where the borders of India, Nepal and China intersect. The new road, besides consider- ably shortening the distance for pil- grims going to Kailash-Mansarovar, is also meant to help boost Sino-In- dian trade. It will be the shortest and most feasible trade route between the two countries. The trading post in Lipulekh was one of the first to be established between the two coun- tries. While inaugurating the road, Rajnath Singh said that it was im- portant to the nation for “strategic, religious and trade” reasons. What evidently irked the Nepalese government was the publi- city the Indian government gave the new road. The opposition parties as well as rivals of Nepalese Prime Min- ister K.P. Sharma Oli within the rul-

NEPAL’S Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali during an interview with the Associated Press in Kathmandu on June 9. On June 13, Nepal’s Parliament approved a Constitutional Amendment to change the nation’s map that includes territory claimed by IRANJAN SHRESTHA/AP IRANJAN both Nepal and India. N

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 76 77 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 JAMMU AND KASHMIR Diaspora pitches in The Kashmiri diaspora gathers strength to internationalise resistance against the government’s political incursions in the

Kashmir Valley. BY ANANDO BHAKTO

THE Kashmiri diaspora, so far Art Ashai, Zeeshan Khan and Eht- handed quelling of dissent that seen as a politically inconsequential isham Ashai among other Kashmiri sporadically erupted across the Val- RAKASH MATHEMA/AFP RAKASH

P and scattered community, is making Americans geared up to internation- ley in its aftermath. A BANNER with the new political map of Nepal, on June 13. serious efforts to organise itself and alise the clampdown imposed by the Buoyed by the world’s renewed launch a sustainable, multiple stake- government on Kashmir and the interest in Kashmir, Majid Butt, Wa- to take sides. After the domestic Within a month, the territorial of Nepal, Bidhya Devi Bhandari, and holder-led campaign against the health care and economic exigencies jahat Dedmari and Nadeem Reshi political uproar, the Nepalese gov- dispute has become the most serious now has constitutional validity un- Narendra Modi government’s polit- it entailed. They held back-to back floated Justice for Kashmir (JFK), ernment introduced a new Constitu- issue bedevilling relations between der the country’s Constitution. Ac- ical incursions in the Kashmir Val- meetings with Senators and mem- which will be the diaspora’s vehicle tion Amendment Bill in Parliament the two countries since India’s eco- cording to MEA officials, Nepal’s ley. The diaspora played a significant bers of the House of Representatives for advocating the rights of the Kash- to secure approval for a new map nomic blockade of the land-locked latest uncompromising move came role in highlighting the post-August in the United States. miri people and “raising awareness which formally incorporated the country in 2015 a year after the Bhar- despite feelers from Delhi for talks to 5 excesses in Jammu and Kashmir, They were instrumental in lobby- against the injustice, crimes, and at- area under dispute with India within atiya Janata Party-led government be held expeditiously to resolve the after the State’s semi-autonomous ing with California Congressman rocities being committed in Kash- its boundaries. took over in New Delhi. Even the pro boundary issue. Prime Minister Oli status was revoked. As the Kashmir Brad Sherman, who is the chairman mir”. The JFK, which has been Before it took the decision, the Indian parties such as the Nepal said that the unanimity exhibited by issue set a feverish debate the world of the House of Representatives sub- registered as a non-governmental or- Nepalese government had called for Congress and the Madhesi political all political parties showed that the over, with major members of Parlia- committee on Asia, the Pacific and ganisation (NGO), is collaborating urgent talks with India on the issue groupings have refused to support country was united on the Kalapani ment and rights bodies condemning non-proliferation, which held a with eminent figures from among but New Delhi prevaricated, citing Delhi on the issue. However, Nepal’s issue. Nepal’s Army chief, General Modi’s “muscular policies” vis-a-vis hearing on Kashmir on October 22, the U.S.’ intellectual, administrative the COVID-19 pandemic as the ex- opposition parties have emphasised Purna Chandra Thapa, visited the the disputed valley, the diaspora be- 2019. The Kashmiri diaspora played and political elites to counter the cuse. “If the coronavirus is an the need for talks with Delhi on the border post near the disputed lieves the time is now ripe to counter a keen role in the selection of wit- growing cacophony of Hindu nation- obstacle to not hold a diplomatic dia- issue. Kalapani area after the Nepalese the well-oiled Hindutva machinery nesses to testify at the hearing. It also alism through its proxy bodies logue soon, it should have been an In the third week of June, the Parliament approved the new map. that has long dominated the narrat- briefed Congressmen on New Delhi’s nestled abroad. The diaspora is obstacle for the opening of the link Indian government signalled that it The Nepalese side has upgraded ive abroad. crackdown on Kashmir’s main- hopeful that the JFK will help road as well,” said Nepal’s Foreign was willing to sit down for talks on its border post and it will now be Soon after August 5, Majid Butt, stream and separatist actors before streamline its on-going efforts aimed Minister, Pradeep Gyawali. “We the boundary issue with Nepal. In- manned throughout the year. Previ- Wajahat Dedmari, Nadeem Reshi, its August 5 action and the high- at building important relationships have expressed time and again that dian sources indicated that they were ously, the post, manned by the Nepal Nepal wants to sit at the table and willing to negotiate on the areas Police, remained closed during the resolve the problem.” The Nepalese claimed by Nepal, except on the issue winter months. government had first made requests of Lipulekh and Limpiyadhura According to Indian officials, for talks on the disputed territory in which are also included in the new Nepal’s claim on these two areas con- end 2019 and subsequently this May. map approved by the Nepalese Par- tradicts India’s boundary agreement The Nepalese Parliament unan- liament. Nepal’s upper house also with China. At the same time, Indian imously approved the new map on unanimously approved the new map officials have warned that Nepal June 13. India’s External Affairs in mid June. would have to pay a price if it does Ministry spokesman was quick to re- “We have enough facts and evid- not come to the negotiating table. ject the territorial claims by the ence and we’ll sit with India to re- The two countries have had open Nepalese government. “The artificial solve the dispute through diplomatic borders for people and trade and enlargement of claims is not based negotiation”, Nepal’s Law Minister, Nepal is one of the biggest recipients on historical facts or evidence and is Shiva Maya Tumbahamphe, told of development aid from India. The not tenable. It is also violative of our Parliament. militaries of the two countries have current understanding to hold talks The new map incorporating ter- strong institutional links. Their Y SPECIAL ARRANGEMENT SPECIAL Y on outstanding boundary issues,” the ritory claimed by India has been chiefs enjoy the status of honorary B spokesman said. formally approved by the President generals in each other’s armies. २ THE KASHMIRI DIASPORA protested against the continuing lockdown in Kashmir, in Los Angeles on August 18, 2019.

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 78 79 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 in the U.S. Congress and around the imperative upon the entire world to Shalab Kumar, have been allegedly The U.N. report titled “Report on world and use diplomatic leverage to come forward and help in resolving promoting the Hindutva agenda in the Situation of Human Rights in quell India’s “hard-fisted” policies in the Kashmir issue, otherwise we may the U.S. Among other such outfits is Kashmir: Developments in the In- Kashmir. have three nuclear powers—India, the Hindu American Foundation, dian State of Jammu and Kashmir Majid Butt, founding member of China and Pakistan—heading for a known for its aggressive tactics to from June 2016 to April 2018, and the JFK who spoke to Frontline over showdown,” he said. influence political discourse in fa- General Human Rights Concerns in the phone from Los Angeles, shed The JFK’s core idea is to chal- vour of Hindutva ideologues. Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gil- light on the diaspora’s post-August 5 lenge the optics set by New Delhi’s Angana Chatterji, a scholar at the git-Baltistan”, revealed that more initiatives, the role it played in press- “narrative controllers”. In the U.S., University of California, Berkeley, than 1,000 Kashmiris were held un- ing the House subcommittee for a the Hindutva groups’ acquisition of said the environment now was con- der the PSA between March 2016 hearing on Kashmir and the neces- political prominence is a fascinating ducive for “a growing movement of and August 2017. sity to structure these endeavours. story spanning over several decades. Kashmiris and allies, calling for It is not a coincidence that high- “August 5 was a turning point for all A section of the Indian-American di- justice and accountability”. “The lighting the practice of unlawful de- Kashmiris, including Kashmiri aspora is understood to have closely conditions on the ground in Kashmir tentions is one of the JFK’s key areas Americans. We have been raising the worked with Modi since the middle have led to increasing and urgent of focus. Despite the coronavirus

Kashmir issue over the past 10 years ARRANGEMENT SPECIAL Y of the 2000s. As early as 2005 when concern among political leaders pandemic, the JFK has launched a but our efforts lacked coherence. The B Modi, who was Gujarat Chief Minis- across the spectrum for the sanctity “Set Them Free” project. It will re- time has come to amplify the mes- AT A PROTEST on Hollywood Boulevard on August 31, 2019. ter, was denied a visa by the U.S. and security of Kashmiris, and re- visit the policies and statutes govern- sage of Kashmir,” Butt said. State Department to address a con- garding the stability of the region ing the functioning of prisons in In the weeks that followed the significant response in the form of a Nitasha Kaul, London-based vention of Asian American Hotel and India’s capacity for democracy,” Jammu and Kashmir and the condi- revocation of Kashmir’s special historic congressional hearing.” novelist and academic specialsing in Owners Associations in Florida, she told this reporter over phone tion of prisoners thereof. The ulti- status, the members of the diaspora international relations, who testified some influential Indian-Americans from San Francisco. mate aim of the project is to prepare held a series of meetings with influ- B RIEFING ON KASHMIR in the hearing, said that “for the mil- began to put their act together to Angana Chatterji is the author of a dossier on the desired prison re- ential American politicians, who in- Ahead of the congressional hearing, lions of people in Kashmir who have limn an “investor friendly” global im- Majoritarian State: How Hindu Na- forms, which will be presented to cluded 25 Congressmen and three the diaspora held a major briefing for been affected for decades by this pro- age of him. A significant step towards tionalism is Changing India. She is various stakeholders on the comple- Senators, notably Democratic Party Congressmen in Capitol Hill. Said tracted political problem and its hu- this direction was taken in 2007 by involved with the JFK team and test- tion of the project and provide free veterans Kamala Harris and Cory Majid: “India has dominated the man rights dimensions, it [the Bharat Barai, assistant professor of ified in the October hearing. She is of legal aid to maximum number of de- Booker. narrative for very long. India’s fram- hearing] was a time of hope that the medicine at Indiana University’s the opinion that Modi’s unrelenting tainees. It will ensure comprehensive Three meetings were held with ing of the Kashmiri struggle as a international community can do Medical School. He organised a Hindutva push unwittingly brought legal aid to undertrials and inmates, Brad Sherman in August and proxy war thrust by Pakistan, with an things better.” Nitasha, a Kashmiri videoconference for Modi to address his government under the interna- right from applying for bail to the September 2019. Information on the overt Islamist character and end Pandit, speaking to Frontline about the Indian diaspora. That same year, tional scanner. “Unremitting milit- conclusion of trial and filing appeals historicity of the Kashmir struggle, goal, has prevented informed debate her experience at the hearing, said: Ramesh Shah, another influential aristic and legal hostility toward against convictions, if any. the phases of betrayals by India as it on the issue of right to self-determin- “It was a rare opportunity to speak Indian-American, organised a major social dissent have become charac- Post August 5, illegal detentions incrementally eroded the guarantees ation. We held a briefing for over 150 truth to power, put forward ideas rally in Houston to celebrate Modi’s teristic of the BJP’s governance. The became rampant in Kashmir. The given to the State under Article 370 Congress staffers. We shared feed- that bring together the voices of re-election as Gujarat’s Chief Minis- more proximate to harsher realities, Centre in November informed the were shared with him during these back on the excesses of the Modi gov- peace and justice from different ter for the third time in a row. the more intensified the targeting, Rajya Sabha that 5,161 people were meetings. Presentations were made ernment and distributed handouts sides, and have an impact on the A report released by the South and this makes people fearful. Since detained after Jammu and Kash- on the cycles of violence, illegal de- on why the decision to abrogate Art- practice of critical international rela- Asia Citizens Wire in July 2014 December 2019, peaceful civil soci- mir’s constitutional autonomy was tention and crackdown on religious icles 370 and 35A were constitution- tions.” She is upbeat about the dia- stated that between 2001 and 2012 ety protests [with few exceptions] withdrawn on August 5, 2019. But figureheads that have emerged as a ally unviable.” spora’s efforts to engage with and India-based affiliates of the have taken place across the country this could be a conservative figure. As persistent feature of the Modi years. The effort paid off. The congres- involve more and more international Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh in dissent to the CAA [Citizenship per an AFP report, at least 4,000 As per the information available, sional hearing riled the Modi gov- players in the Kashmir discourse. (RSS), the ideological fountainhead Amendment Bill], NPR [National people were arrested in the two first Pakistani-origin Democratic Party ernment by rebutting its policies Wajahat Dedmari, the JFK’s of BJP, received funds to the tune of Population Register], and NRC [Na- two weeks after the abrogation of leader Asif Mahmood was instru- vis-a-vis Kashmir. Ilhan Omar, a team leader in Washington, D.C., $55 million from its U.S.-based tional Register of Citizens],” she Article 370 in Kashmir. mental in facilitating the meetings Somalia-born Democrat from Min- said they had to bank on a friendly wings that exist as tax-exempt non- pointed out. Majid Butt says that the Set between the members of the Kash- nesota berated the “Hindu national- U.S. NGO to send out invites to profit organisations. Indeed, the Modi government Them Free initiative would be an ef- miri diaspora and the U.S. ist project” of the Bharatiya Janata guests. “It was at that point we felt In January 2014, four months has been in the line of fire. This year, fective starting point to augment the politicians. Party (BJP). She noted that Modi’s the need to create our own platform.” before Modi captured power at the six resolutions were tabled ahead of existing information on the state of When contacted, Mahmood told exclusivist policies shook the very The JFK plans to highlight that a Centre, the Overseas Friends of the the European Union Parliament human rights in Kashmir and con- this reporter: “The Kashmiri voices premise of the partnership between resolution of the Kashmir conflict is Bharatiya Janata Party (OFBJP) plenary, which began in Brussels on solidate world opinion for a just and needed to be heard, so I decided to India and the U.S. “At what point do integral to sustaining peace in South held a global meet in New Delhi with January 29. They dismissed the CAA honourable resolution of the Kash- extend all possible support that I we no longer share values with In- East Asia. “Unless Kashmiris are 160 delegates from around the as “fundamentally discriminatory in mir conflict. “For the past few dec- could, in their pursuit to freedom, dia? Are we waiting for the Muslims given a right to decide their future as world. Simultaneously, in Houston nature”. In June 2018, the office of ades, India has been using different justice, and liberty, which are im- in Assam to be put in those [deten- per the United Nations Security close to 700 volunteers kicked off a the United Nations High Commis- strategies and lobbying against portant values enshrined within our tion] camps?” she asked. Brad Sher- Council Resolution 47, there will not phone-banking initiative to press for sioner for Human Rights released a Kashmir not only in the U.S., but the [U.S.] Constitution. We held a series man, who made the opening be any peace in South East Asia. The Modi as the next Prime Minister. Of report which questioned, among world over. We have facts on our side of official meetings with congres- remarks, questioned India for deny- on-going stand-off between India late, groups such the Republican other things, the arbitrary use of the and the need of the hour was to put sional leaders that proved very pro- ing permission to Senator Chris Van and China in Ladakh which is a part Hindu Coalition, chaired by the In- Public Safety Act (PSA) by the In- more effort, so that we could counter ductive and helped us yield a Hollen to travel to Kashmir. of Jammu and Kashmir has made it dian-American business tycoon dian state. India’s false narrative.” २

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 80 81 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 BOOKS in review again against the Muslim place in the worship of the Guru Nanak came across a is in danger in India today. community.” peasantry, stated Ibbet- goatherd, named Lakhan, In the recent Delhi In this hate-filled rhet- son’s Report on the Punjab and asked him for food. pogrom, the first place to oric, elements of cohesion Census of 1881. ‘They are Lakhan offered him a be torched was a mazaar are either wilfully ignored, generally Mahammedan, sweet made from goat in Bhajanpura where or deliberately under- but are worshipped by milk. The Guru blessed people from all faiths Dystopian realities played. For instance, the Hindoos and Musalmans him, saying nobody would gathered. It was to guard Mughal emperor Aurang- alike with the most return empty-handed against such miscreants zeb is dubbed an idol impartiality’.” from his doorstep. The be- that the founding fathers The threat to India’s pluralist tradition and ethos under the current breaker who felled temples Incidentally, the Tarn lief percolated down cen- of the nation provided for regime is insightfully discussed in this new book. BY ZIYA US SALAM at will, but the fact that his Taran mazaar, which turies and today many Right to Equality. The regime had the empire’s Chandhoke refers to, has frequent his mazaar with rights of the minorities highest number of Hindu an interesting story about special prayers. were enshrined in the Con- URING the recent or- Shaheen Bagh, replete mansabdars until then is its origin. It is said once This pluralist tradition stitution and the first Dganised violence in with displays of national ignored, as is his grant to Prime Minister, Jawa- North East Delhi, mobs icons, was dubbed a gath- the Gauri Shankar temple harlal Nehru, conceptual- chanting “Jai Shri Ram” ering of traitors deserving right in front of his fort in ized it as an integral part of slogans planted saffron to be shot merely because Delhi. Not just at the level Neera Chandhoke gives us the democratic state. Yet flags atop many mosques. Rethinking the women at the forefront of emperors and kings, the concrete examples of even the freedom to follow At one mosque, a saffron Pluralism, of the protest were largely glue always percolated any religion, or even no re- Secularism and flag was hoisted over the Tolerance Muslim. These are bleak down to the common tolerance and coexistence, ligion, equal right to vote, national flag. Although it times for the pluralist man’s level. Hence, we failed to translate into a Anxieties of and thus raises the book was not declared in as Coexistence ethos of the nation. have innumerable dargahs living example of secular- many words, the violent Chandhoke writes, frequented by people of above the level of a mere ism in the absence of the crowd’s message was clear: Neera Chandhoke “This is, perhaps, not the various faiths. It is in re- will of the state. The There was only one way of Sage best moment to resurrect a counting such instances academic discourse. minorities, despite pos- being an Indian, only one Pages: 224 defence of secularism. that Chandhoke gives us religion that an Indian Rs.895 Since 2014, India has an concrete examples of toler- could follow. Amazingly a extreme right-wing party ance and coexistence, and few months before the of Indian politics. daily diet of the alleged at- in power at the Centre— thus raises the book above hateful incidents in Delhi, Whatever remains of secu- rocities of Muslim kings in the Bharatiya Janata Party. the level of a mere aca- the noted academic-author larism is subjected to con- medieval India, from The party’s ideological demic discourse. Neera Chandhoke had temptuous remarks, some Alauddin Khalji to Aurang- backbone, the Rashtriya In the chapter “The written about almost the ribaldry and offensive dis- zeb, equates in his mind Swayamsewak Sangh Principles of Tolerance”, same thing with a hint of missal by cadres and sup- this stereotype of the medi- (RSS), and other assorted the author writes about a prognostication and resig- porters of the religious eval Muslim with present- fringe outfits belonging to Muslim shrine in Punjab nation in her superbly ar- right.” day Indian Muslims. the larger Hindutva bri- where Hindus and Sikhs ticulated and persuasively Tolerance has as good Hence the attacks on gade have been granted an frequent a mazaar. Hail- argued book Rethinking as disappeared from the mosques in Delhi as a retri- opportunity to carry out ing the mazaar as a throw- Pluralism, Secularism and political scene, as wit- bution for alleged instances their a little-less-than-a- back to the times when Tolerance: Anxieties of Co- nessed during the 2019 of temple desecration in century-old project of cre- people lived in a pluralist existence published by general election when even the past. ating and sustaining a na- society, she writes, “As our Sage. the leading opposition Indeed, this is the time tion exclusively of and for vehicle drove away from In the preface to her party, the Congress, was at when a large part of society, the Hindu community al- the fair, the thought book, the distinguished pains to tell voters that it driven by hate and em- most by divine right. Al- crossed my mind: Undi- academic writes: “Toler- was in favour of the major- boldened by statements of though the geographical vided Punjab must have ance has disappeared from ity community with con- political leaders, seeks to boundaries of India con- looked like this, Hindus, the political scene as lynch stant visits by Rahul label a community in abus- tain a multiplicity of belief Muslims and Sikhs wor- mobs, self-appointed cen- Gandhi to numerous ive terms, as proven by the systems, and the Hindu shipping together at the sors, repression of dissent, temples. This was accom- vituperative-laden cam- community is decentred mazaar of a fakir, at the vigilantism and murder- panied by the decreasing paign of Bharatiya Janata and plural in nature, the dera of a Guru and at the ous crowds try to hammer demand for a Muslim Party (BJP) leaders, ran- cadres of the extreme right feet of a living saint in ac- a plural nation into con- leader like Ghulam Nabi ging from Union Ministers concentrate on drumming cordance with the strong formity with slogans of one Azad to address election Amit Shah and Anurag up old bigotries and un- tradition of Sufism, which language, one religion, one rallies. Yet, Hindutva has Thakur to a relative upstart earthing new ancient anti- brought to the region a people and one cuisine. permeated beyond the like Kapil Mishra during pathies to unify an softer and less doctrinaire The language of secularism political layer to everyday the recent Delhi election. otherwise plural and de- form of Islam. Saints of AJJAD HUSSAIN/AFP AJJAD has practically vanished issues of coexistence. The Even an entirely peaceful centred Hindu com- widespread renown oc- S from the political horizon common man, fed on a protest like the one at munity, and pit it once cupy a very important AT THE ENTRANCE of a building attacked during riots, in New Delhi on March 1.

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 82 83 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 IBEK CHETTRI IBEK B

A MOSQUE SET on fire by rioters in Mustafabad, Delhi on February 27. of an imagined/real past runs the risk of not only sessing the same right to with. Inequality of life con- The author wants the state marring our today but also, vote, stood in danger of be- ditions has shaped their to take a fresh look at its practically, ruining our to- ing outvoted all the time by lives, they are considered principle of secularism as morrow. We are living in others if faith alone de- lesser than the members of followed through a policy an age when the state is termined choices. Worse, the majority community of equidistance from all re- seen colluding with non- they could be demonised for purely arbitrary reas- ligions. She concludes with state actors on the one for their choice, be it polit- ons. They are not seen as a question, “Do we really hand, and using the arm of ical or religious, or even individuals; they are re- want to live in a bare and the state itself on the other, banal matters of food, lan- duced to the community of stark society marked by in- to marginalise the minor- guage and attire. which they are members. formal apartheid? Or do ities. Chandhoke hits a sens- They might possess the we earnestly desire to in- At this crucial junc- itive nerve in the chapter right to cast a vote, but the habit a social order that ture, secularism, tolerance Equality and the Rights of exercise of this right may foster warm relationships and coexistence as lived Minorities. She writes, not be enough to enable to based on civility and mu- realities need to be high- “People are, in this case, live better lives.” tual respect? The first kind lighted in contrast to the treated unequally because Chandhoke’s words are will drastically constrain divisive agenda of sundry they belong to a religious a reflection of the lived our minds and hearts, our politicians. Chandhoke’s community that has been reality of our times where sensibilities and our per- book outlines the hurdles demonised through vi- often to be a Muslim is to spectives. The second part and the pitfalls and offers a cious rhetoric or hateful be taken as a doubtful cit- will enable the unleashing blueprint for the way for- actions. The demonisation izen, one who has to prove of creative imaginations ward. of the entire community his patriotism to goons on and allow us to become The question is: Will impacts the life of its mem- the road. What is the way fuller human beings, at Indian society and polity bers adversely. Individual out? The Right to Equality ease with others in a plur- take heed her pertinent members may not be able between citizens is a good alist society.” and timely warning? If the to get the jobs they want, beginning, but it has to Despite the somewhat example of the Delhi mob rent or buy a house in the translate to equality Utopian end, Chandhoke’s chanting “Jai Shri Ram” neighbourhood they want between communities. work is timely and reflects slogans even as it set to live in, send their chil- Otherwise, a majoritarian the stark realities of every- mosques on fire is any- dren to schools they think agenda can be furthered day existence for the thing to go by, not many are desirable, and form under the garb of national- minorities of contempor- are ready to abide by her warm and social relation- ism, and a minority’s bid to ary India. values. More is the pity. ships with others who they retain its identity dubbed She argues that our un- Greater is the need for the wish they could be friends as an anti-national move. ending wish to settle scores message. २

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 84 BOOKS in review

whites and so on were sub- jected to textual Social media desecration. The author says that 4chan’s culture and language turned toxic over time. Cut to 21st century, so- and democracy cial media and other plat- forms are being used to The book is a primer on understanding the churn out deception and venom. Hatred and preju- intersections between democracy, politics, dice are in the networks as well as in the air. Moore deception and technological developments. details how social media, BY M. SHUAIB MOHAMED HANEEF which had an idealistic agenda to begin with, have become indispensable to E live in a dark phase the political tumult in Wfilled with adversity. today’s democracy. The au- As dark and unpredictable thor’s narrations reveal the as it gets. At this moment seedy and sinister motives in the world, whatever with which memes, texts flows, ruptures. Be it the and videos were produced, flow (spread) of Democracy Hacked for instance, in the presid- coronavirus, the flow of Political Turmoil and ential elections in the migration, the flow of Information Warfare United States in 2014. money or the egregious in the Digital Age Donald Trump was held flow of dis/information. By Martin Moore aloft while Hillary Clinton Capturing the flow of dis/ Oneworld was downgraded on false information campaigns in Publications, 2018 grounds using mimetic the digital ecosystem and Pages: 320 warfare and trolling. the crisis of democracy is Price: Rs.699 Images are used to ri- the nut graph of Martin dicule, trivialise and fero- Moore’s succinctly written drub their opponents in electronic online forum, ciously malign people in book Democracy Hacked: uncanny ways by lever- and later the formation of the big league as much as Political Turmoil and In- aging social media. In the 4chan, an imageboard ordinary people. High- formation Warfare in the first part of the book, website where users parti- lighting the key proposi- Digital Age. The book is a Moore presents the bad cipated anonymously by tion of some businessmen, primer on understanding and ugly, the mean and di- posting images or posts. the author says that the ob- the intersections between visive, the savage and devi- These online forums al- ject of using digital media democracy, politics, decep- ous means by which some lowed users to go on a he- in politics is to crush the tion and technological de- countries perform and donistic pursuit, claiming mainstream media, which velopments. practise politics and their they could escape from real are presumably considered Digital media have re- consequences for demo- social world scenarios. “left”. The savage efforts to shaped contemporary cracy. It is better to ap- Little did anyone realise promote social media as a politics in unprecedented proach the book with a that 4chan, predominantly reliable source to seek in- ways. Moore argues that rider. It is not just that used by the youth then, formation have caused the old form of political democracy is hacked; would bring together users truth to lose its ground and communication has been democracy hacks too. to hack websites of com- legitimacy in the public supplanted by digital tech- The book paints a grim panies for a lark or could be sphere. Instead, falsehood nologies, which have be- picture of the pre-social used to spew vitriol, inde- runs amok in the wildest come a new force to reckon media era by focussing on cency and obscenity mostly manner possible. with. What Moore reveals key developments such as from a white supremacist in the book is downright the evolution of the hack- position. Thus, women, T HE NEW PLUTOCRACY desperation of political ers’ community in the Jews, the LGBT com- The book underlines that parties the world over to 1970s, the rise of WELL, an munity, migrants and non- technology is not inher-

85 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 ently biased. It is the architecture and he could much different purpose criminality of human not restrain the eruption of than what its punchline minds that make it un- pluralistic views. Not the would indicate. The more leash nefarious activities. way he had TV and other the merrier—the more Moore sheds light on some media on a tight leash. data it could get about of the digital dynasts who This prompted him to es- more users, the more ex- make plutocracy possible. tablish battalions of con- change value it would get One such plutocrat is tent creators who needed by profiling them and Robert Mercer, who is to be nationalists and loyal selling them to the new anti-establishment, to the Kremlin. The digital crop of political evangel- against climate change army of parties in India, as ists who are also the policies and oriented to- it is elsewhere, also com- biggest spenders. In addi- wards rupturing the public missions several people to tion, Facebook ramped up sphere and subverting write posts, create memes, its affordances by adding democratic accountability. produce disinformation News Feed, Instant Art- He is neither a politician campaigns, fill the space icles, Facebook Connect LIVIER DOULIERY/AFP LIVIER nor a public servant. He O with fake news and spread and dark posts to its kitty. hunkered down for a while THE TWITTER LOGO displayed on a mobile phone with disharmony and hatred. Moore explains the role of and, at the right moment, Trump's picture shown in the background on May 27. technological innovations invested in digital media F IXING ELECTIONS in helping Facebook THIT PERAWONGMETHA/REUTERS THIT and big data. He led the knew the gamut of decep- ality. It is a digital warfare The second part of the achieve its twin goals, in- A frontal attack on demo- tion until the expose with bots, algorithms, book discusses how Face- tertwined though, of eco- cracy by scouring data happened of mass-har- drones and the like on the book, Google and Twitter nomic growth and political ONLINE LEARNING amid the spread of COVID-19, in Bangkok on May 20. The author from social media to target vesting of Facebook users’ frontline. It is not waged to were used to fix and nix disruption. says most of us are attracted to the ways in which educational content is conceived and voters and manipulate data that CA used to conquer territories but elections and how they designed, ignoring the amount of data the platforms will mine to make profit. their perceptions to his change the voting beha- minds. Moore argues that helped many world leaders C RADLE OF ANARCHY own ends, which is, say, to viours of people, be it in the Vladimir Putin needed a come to power. The author The book describes Google cognitive capitalism. ter for news updates and as of privacy, surveillance see that Trump won. U.S. or Brexit. In brutal framework to set up disin- documents success stories as the cradle of anarchy. Moore, in a masked pro- field reporting has also and the irredeemable loss The author presents ways, CA used the harves- formation factories to es- of Rodrigo Duterte of the Google is a search engine vocation, details that our come down. On a large of the democratic zeitgeist. another plutocrat, Andrew ted personal data to sell tablish Russia as a Philippines who used in- without parallel and less digital footprints allow scale, this has resulted in The efforts of Amazon, Breitbart, who sees a plot political ideas and ideolo- superpower. So, he spread fluencers on Facebook to fierce competition. It is Google to deepen its pock- the sacking of many journ- Warren Buffet’s Berkshire in the arrival of the Frank- gies to users, especially the news that Russia was reach audiences. Barack also known for overturn- ets. Advertising is not alists in legacy media Hathaway and JPMorgan furt School scholars in the during Trump’s elections. under attack from other Obama and Trump made ing its initial pledge that it about buying media space, firms. Chase to set up a remote U.S. and alleges that they All these point to the fact countries and was being the best use of social media would not be consumed by but buying people, he re- Later, the author puts digital health-care facility turned the country into a that Mercer and his ilk had spied upon; its data for their election cam- any greed to attract ads. marks. To its credit, in perspective how Twitter to address health issues in hotbed of Left ideologies. only one goal to achieve— hacked. It is in the shad- paigns. In India, Narendra When Google was exposed Google has its own regime is also used to spread ag- 2018 did give rise to new To jettison Left or “Demo- turn democracy on its ows of a lie that Putin con- Modi pioneered the social to the possibility of data of advertising bludgeoned gression-filled and offens- hopes. It led to Amazon crat Media Complex” from head. structed his digital empire, media blitz in 2014. mining and got the taste of through keywords, click- ive comments. If Trump’s partnering with the Amer- the U.S. and the world is the author reveals. Russia, The ambivalence in the algorithm gold rush, it had bait and several other ad tweets are anything to go ican Heart Association Breitbard’s arch mission. A NEW WAR as part of its geopolitical ideological functions of so- less concern for users or for features. by, or some of the tweets by and much later even host- The nexus between Subsequently, the author guerilla warfare, identifies cial media occurred when its ethical degeneration. The author begins his politicians in any part of ing the Cancer Genome Mercer and Breitbart begins to scope out the the weak spots in a coun- an unholy truce was struck The search engine turned discussion of Twitter in a the world are any indica- Atlas that housed huge happened with the former widespread use of digital try/person and inflames between politics, advert- into a relentless surveil- very positive way, high- tion, Twitter distorts news. amount of molecular investing in all digital media to launch disin- social media with divisive ising/marketing and big lance engine, tracking lighting its potential as an Craving for fast-food structures. Amazon ac- schemes Breitbart ex- formation campaigns at campaigns. data. Subsequently, Face- what people search and its emerging news source. He journalism through Twit- complished this using its ecuted. The author writes geopolitical levels. It is the The task of controlling book said that its strategy related activities. It argues that gatekeeping by ter kills trust and accuracy. cloud computing facility. that Mercer continued to beginning of a new war, social media was not as “helps people to connect bundles our preferences journalists has shifted to The author also points out But its biggest asset was invest in several organisa- where there is no trench, easy as Putin might have with each other” to allow and sells us to advertisers. the public, who have be- that there are many whose the data of patients. tions building on the no soldiers and no ration- thought. Internet is a vast unverified news streaming In the process, its imperi- come alternative sources. voices are not heard as so- Likewise, the author premise that all media are into its space. Recently, alism grew to an extent Twitter is an alarm system cial media are too remote explains how Google along biased. This led to Face- Facebook announced it that it swallowed as many for journalists to under- for them to access econom- with Deepmind, a data book, Twitter and other It is the beginning of a new would not remove false digital companies as it stand what people per- ically and otherwise. company, partnered with social media gaining trac- claims made in Trump’s could, thereby having a ceive, the author writes. Royal Free Hospital in the tion and attracting people. war, with bots, algorithms, re-election campaign ad- stranglehold on digital ser- He also discusses the Q UESTION OF PRIVACY United Kingdom that Mercer next turned to vertisements even if they vices in the market. downside of the growing The third part of the book shared all its patients’ med- Cambridge Analytica drones and the like. It is not happened to be flagrant To add to that, wear- use of Twitter for journal- focusses on platforms ical records. Digital plat- (CA), which is an offshoot waged to conquer territories lies. able technologies synced ism. Local journalism has gaining momentum in the forms realised that there of Strategic Communica- Facebook wants to with Google has contrib- taken a back seat as journ- digital sphere and the was wealth in health. tions Laboratory. No one but minds. connect people but for a uted to what is known as alists now depend on Twit- world’s pressing question Moore says that platforms

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 86 87 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 unvarnished account of ENVIRONMENT

plutocrats, social media PTI companies, states and their policies and agendas in grand detail. On the one hand, he has captured their economic growth and, on the other, their role in political disruption. The book has some interesting and thought-provoking pointers one cannot dis- pense with. The author’s critical remark that social media have depoliticised the youth by alienating them from rationality is going to be foundational for understanding society, people and their percep- OBYN BECK/AFP OBYN

R tions. It is also dishearten- A DEMONSTRATION against Breitbart News and its propaganda for the Trump ing to note that many administration, in Los Angeles, a file photo. among the youth have be- come mercenaries in di- are like online bazaars. Un- commitment to its cit- his/her private informa- gital armies of political like traditional bazaars, izens. As many have writ- tion that the state does not parties, engaged in labour, platforms track consumers ten in the wake of know about. When it was producing a product called and keep collecting data on COVID-19, nations are presented before the Su- hatred, whose exchange end even after they leave. forced to rethink their preme Court that Aadhaar value is disharmony and Educational platforms are strategies on health and takes away the funda- violence. In this regard, also on the rise, more so education expenditure, es- mental rights of citizens, the author appeals to sens- now as the lockdown (be- pecially not to cave in to the court ruled that itise ourselves to the way cause of COVID-19) man- the neoliberal agenda. Aadhaar cannot be made democracy is muted and dates that classes be held mandatory. However, the mutilated. Swarms of locust in the walled city using online platforms. A ADHAAR & government has not com- The crisis of demo- of Jaipur on May 25. More than Most of us are attracted to S URVEILLANCE promised on its intent and cracy can be perceived but half of Rajasthan’s 33 districts the innovative ways educa- The chapter on surveil- considers Aadhaar as its is as invisible as have been invaded by these crop- tional content is conceived lance begins with how In- panoptic weaponry. coronavirus. As the virus of munching insects. and designed (interactiv- dian governments have Singapore’s Smart Na- disinformation spreads, ity, animation, self-paced, linked Aadhaar number to tion is similar wherein di- religions are not spared on etc.), ignoring the amount our life—be it getting a gital infrastructures are social media. It is crucial to of data that these plat- scholarship, passport, or used to control the popula- understand where hate forms will mine to make food rations. While the tion. China is leading the and lie originate before profit. Public transport previous government charge with its social credit they are circulated THE SWARM platforms such as Uber, touted that it was intro- system that tracks its cit- through networks. Hate Ola and Lyft and over-the- duced to ensure proper izens, awards points to originates in the hating top entertainment plat- transfer of benefits to them on the basis of their body and not in the hated forms services such as Net- people, the current gov- purchase behaviour. For body. Much as coronavirus flix and Amazon Prime run ernment adds to the exist- instance, someone buying demands a new economic BEFORE THE STORM on data that users put in ing list saying it is a digital a pack of cigars may lose world order, it is time for and which are then pro- identity that could be used points as opposed to one the economies of love, and cessed by algorithms in en- to prevent bank frauds and buying napkins. In addi- not hate, to endure. २ As the threat of a locust attack looms, and as climate change igmatic ways. terror attacks. tion, Moore highlights that M. Shuaib Mohamed The author points out With Aadhaar, it has increasing surveillance has Haneef is assistant threatens to increase the frequency of such attacks, Indian that ceding basic services now become easier for the led to a data and al- professor and head in such as health and educa- government to track an in- gorithmic bias whereby it charge, Department of agriculture needs a more durable and long-term strategy to fight tion to platform compan- dividual. In other words, could be used to target one Electronic Media and ies reflects the there is nothing that an in- group of people. Mass Communication, the menace. B Y K.D. PRATHAPAN government’s apathetic dividual can claim to be Moore has offered an Pondicherry University.

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 88 89 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 LIFE in the desert is defined by scarcity of water. The harsh, pro- longed dry spells further restrict the availability of food resources for much of the year. Plants and animals in the desert have evolved various strategies to cope with the extreme environment. Migration over long distances, in search of greener pas- tures, is one of the common strategies of large desert animals such as the wildebeest in Africa. The desert locust, which has integrated behavioural, functional and struc- tural adaptations to migrate over great distances across continents, has evolved as one of the most suc- cessful life forms in the desert. The locusts are among the most dreaded migratory pests in the world; huge swarms of desert locust appear sud- denly in the sky and devour all kinds of vegetation within hours, threaten- ing the food supply of millions of people in some of the poorest coun- tries. India, after more than two dec- ades, is experiencing a massive locust attack, which is likely to intensify in the months ahead. Locust invasions are probably as ancient as settled agriculture. The Russian-British entomologist Boris Petrovitch Uvarov (1886-1950) pi- oneered studies on locusts. He is considered the Father of Acridology (study of locusts and their relatives). In 1921, Uvarov identified the solit- arious and migratory phases of lo- custs, which had been considered a distinct species for centuries. His studies on the biology and ecology of locusts helped put locust control on a sound scientific basis. E.C. Cotes began formal studies on crop pests, including locusts, in India. In 1891, he published accounts of locust inva- sions in the provinces of Bengal, Madras, Assam and Bombay. The Imperial Council of Agricultural Re- search started funding a Locust Re- search Scheme in 1930, and the Locust Warning Organisation (LWO) was established in 1936 in Karachi, following a major locust plague that lasted for about four

CHILDREN attempting to drive away locusts in Prayagraj, Uttar Pradesh, TI on June 11. P

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 90 91 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 years between 1926 and1930. After Independence, the field headquar- The locust ters of the LWO was shifted to Jodh- pur, Rajasthan, with the central that became headquarters in Faridabad, Hary- ana. Yelseti Ramachandra Rao extinct (1885-1972) studied the desert locust in undivided India and neighbouring When Martha, the last of the countries. His The Desert Locust in passenger pigeons (Ectop- India, published in 1960, is regarded istes migratorius) died in as the most authentic work on the Cincinnati Zoo (United subject in the subcontinent. States) on September 1, 1914, the species became ex- W HAT ARE LOCUSTS? tinct. The passenger pigeon Locusts are large short-horned was the most abundant bird grasshoppers, belonging to the insect in North America, number- family Acrididae, capable of forming ing three to five billion. It swarms. They exist in two distinct was driven to extinction by phases, solitarious and gregarious, extensive hunting by with intermediate forms. In the solit- European settlers. arious phase, they merge with the The lesser known Rocky environment, live as individuals Mountain locust avoiding each other, lead an incon- (Melanoplus spretus), a spicuous life in the desert and hardly unique insect, succumbed to trouble agriculture. When condi- European colonisation of tions are favourable, the solitarious North America. The greatest ones multiply rapidly and eat up congregation of animals ever most of the vegetation, which leads recorded is a swarm of this to the formation of groups. Conver- locust species, spread over ging winds and dwindling food re- 5,10,000 sq km, in 1875. sources lead to concentration of Less than 30 years later, the adults. As they come into frequent species became extinct, the contact with each other, changes set last live specimens being re- in in their behaviour, function and corded in 1902 in Canada. structure, and thus begin the trans- AZ RATNER/REUTERS AZ Swarms of the Rocky ition to the gregarious phase. Popu- B Mountain locust periodic- lations switch over from the ally devastated crops in solitarious phase to the gregarious rejected the role of neurohormones, DESERT LOCUSTS at a ranch near North America throughout phase over more than a generation. such as corazonin and serotonin, and the town of Nanyuki in Laikipia county, the 19th century. The locust Once they become gregarious, they showed that the phase transforma- Kenya, on February 21. ate not only plants but even may continue in the same phase for tion was controlled by genes that people’s clothes and sheeps’ three or four generations. Thus, a were switched on or off, in response understanding of locust phase wool. Thousands of farm locust plague may continue for more to stimuli induced by crowding. change and migration, which is one families gave up cultivation. than a year. An extensive theoretical study by of the most interesting scientific However, unfortunately for The science of phase transforma- Darron Cullen in 2017 further cor- questions in biology. the locusts, farmers pre- tion in locusts still remains un- roborated the findings of the Boerjan Being touched by one another ferred fertile river valleys, settled. A group of Japanese team. Accordingly, the locust phase during crowding, especially on the which were their breeding scientists led by K. Maeno in 2004 change is due to differential gene ex- outer surface of hind thighs, locusts grounds. It has been sugges- showed that phase-related changes pression in response to non-genetic get attracted, instead of avoiding ted that ploughing and were induced by the neurohormone stimuli, termed epigenetic change, each other. The change over from flooding by settler farmers corazonin. Michael Anstey and mainly through a process called mutual repulsion to attraction takes destroyed the eggs in their Stephen Rogers, in a paper pub- DNA methylation. The size and com- barely an hour and the complete breeding grounds. Probably, lished in 2009 in Science, argued that plexity of the locust genome is the transformation from the solitarious this is the only example of a the initial switch over from solitari- major hurdle in understanding the to the gregarious phase takes over a pest insect driven to extinc- ous to gregarious locusts is triggered molecular basis of phase change in few generations. The gregarious TI tion, perhaps inadvertently, by serotonin, the brain hormone as- its entirety. However, modern se- P mother induces gregarisation in her by farmers. sociated with depression in humans. quencing techniques and powerful A FARMER in Ajmer, Rajasthan, holding dead locusts. The Agriculture progeny by adding a chemical to the K.D. Prathapan However, a group of Belgian scient- gene editing tools such as CRISPR- Department sprayed pesticides on locust swarms on the outskirts of the city on covering of the eggs. ists, led by Bart Boerjan, in 2011, Cas9 are expected to accelerate our June 10. The young of the locust in the

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 92 93 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 and the Bombay locust (Nomadacris the winged adult. Breeding occurs feeding stage. It soon sheds the skin 400-fold in six months after two THE FIRE brigade succincta). The tree locust (Anacar- during the wet season as moist soil is and forms the first instar hopper. generations of breeding. spraying dium rubrispinum) and the coffee ideal for egg laying and hatching. Newly emerged hoppers soon start disinfectant to locust (Aularches miliaris) are not Egg clusters are laid in moist sandy feeding on vegetation. Up to 70-80 L OCUST PLAGUES control locust true locusts, as they do not form soil at a depth of about 5-10 centi- per cent of the newly born hoppers Swarms land about 30 minutes to invasion in Damoh swarms. metres, in special packs called egg perish due to inadequate moisture, two hours before sunset and feed in- district in The desert locust, occurring in pods. Each pod contains 60-160 eggs predation by ants and cannibalism. discriminately on all kinds of vegeta- Madhya Pradesh. about 57 countries, is the most in the solitarious phase, while the After at least five or six days, the tion. According to R. Swaminathan, widely distributed and most de- gregarious females lay fewer than 80 tiny hopper sheds its skin and be- a specialist on locusts and grasshop- structive among the locust species. It eggs. The female bores a hole of comes a larger hopper. Thus, it pers, the solitarious ones do not is distributed from Mauritania in the about 10 cm depth with the end of changes its skin five times (five or prefer neem and cluster beans. Lo- west to India, encompassing the her abdomen and deposits the egg six in the solitarious phase) to be- custs feed on all portions of the plant deserts of north Africa, near east and pod of 3 to 4 cm length at the bottom, come the winged adult. The newly above ground such as leaves, shoots, south-west Asia. This area includes and fills the hole with a foam that emerged pinkish adult, called flowers, fruits, seeds and bark. Any desert basins, arid and semi-arid hardens to plug the hole. A single fledgling, has a soft body and crop, cereals, pulses, cotton, fodder plateaus, low lands and mountains. female lays two egg pods at an inter- drooping wings. It takes nearly 10 crops, fruit trees, vegetables, banana, There are mainly two breeding areas val of about 10 days, or rarely up to days for the wings to harden and all kinds of plants are good in south-west Asiasouth-east Iran four. Up to one-third of the eggs per- enough for sustained flight. The enough for the locust. Swarms wipe and the adjoining areas of Pakistan ish due to natural causes. Scores of hopper stage lasts for 24-95 days off entire fields within a few hours, TI P in spring; and the India-Pakistan females lay egg pods in groups at the (average 36 days), and is longer in leaving farmers high and dry. A field border during the summer. Almost most favourable sites, creating mass winter. A life cycle is completed in of cotton in pre-flowering stage solitarious phase adjust their colour ally cover 100-150 km a day, one-fifth of the earth’s land area is nurseries. The eggs hatch in 10-14 two to six months and two to five could be eaten away in five-10 to that of the surroundings and lead a although there are records of swarms affected by the desert locust. days in summer, which could be ex- generations occur in a year. Adults minutes, according to Swaminathan. camouflaged life, avoiding each crossing the Atlantic. In October The life cycle of a locust is in three tended beyond two months in probably live for 2.5-five months. A There are historic records of locust other. They are rather sluggish and 1988, swarms from West Africa stages—the egg, pronymph followed winter. The pronymph–forerunner single female produces 16-20 viable invasions enhancing the severity of never move in bands. The young ones reached the Caribbean, covering a by five (five or six in the solitarious of the hopper stage–hatches out of locusts in a single generation. The famines in India. The availability of in the gregarious phase also develop distance of 5,000 km in 10 days. phase) wingless hopper stages and the egg and is an ephemeral, non- population of locusts can increase food in several most backward a conspicuous warning coloration Swarms from West Africa migrated with fixed pattern of black and yellow to the British Isles in 1955. In Africa, or orange, and are hyperactive. The in 1958 and 1959, swarms measuring wingless young ones form bands, up to 800 square km were reported. which is a mass of hoppers that The estimated weight of a swarm is moves as a unit. Adults in the solitary one to two lakh tonnes, and it can phase are larger with shorter wings, consume food equivalent to its longer legs and a narrower mid-body weight in a day. A square kilometre than the gregarious ones. As locusts swarm can eat the equivalent of food become gregarious, their maturation consumed by 35,000 people in a day. becomes synchronous and each indi- In Kenya, in 1954, a total population vidual insect behaves as a part of a of 50 swarms together covering an group, marching and flying in the area of 1,000 sq km, was estimated to same direction. The most important contain 500 trillion locusts. Many differences between the locust swarms perish in the sea and alien phases are behavioural-– hyperactiv- lands. Some return to their breeding ity and gregarious nature in the grounds in the desert and revert back gregarious phase, due to change in to the solitarious phase to continue functions and the resultant higher the locust cycle. body temperature. Solitary adults migrate at night, while the gregari- T YPES OF LOCUSTS ous ones fly during the day and spend About 18 species of large grasshop- the night roosting on trees and other pers, those that form swarms, are vegetation. considered as locusts. In India, three The swarms take off and land species of locusts occur—the desert into wind during warm days and fly locust (Schistocerca gregaria), mi- up to nine or 10 hours, moving down- gratory locust (Locusta migratoria) wind. The average swarm density is about 50 million locusts per square LOCUST SWARMS attacked kilometre. Swarms reach up to a hundreds of acres of vegetable crops height of 2,000 metres and fly con- at Narkhed village, around 45 km . SUDERSHAN . tinuously when over sea. They usu- from Nagpur in Maharashtra. S

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 94 RIF ALI/AFP RIF ANJAY KANOJIA/AFP ANJAY A S

LOCUSTS swarming residential areas of Prayagraj on June 11. parts. When the western part is AGRICULTURE Department personnel spraying pesticides to kill locusts in a swarms in east Africa, indicating warmer than the eastern part, called field at Pipli Pahar village in Pakistan’s central Punjab province. that a threat is imminent. Normally African countries is already under struction to agriculture and allied positive IOD, it results in cyclonic the appearance of desert locusts in threat due to the ongoing plague. activities. storms that hit east Africa and the verted into agricultural fields. The spread to the south. India begins in July-October; how- A desert locust plague does not Arabian Peninsula, bringing heavy greening of deserts through afforest- According to Swaminathan, the ever, the current attack appears to be occur suddenly. Locusts remain in C LIMATE CONNECTION rain. An increase in the positive IOD ation and irrigated agriculture could current plague started in India as rather early. In Baluchistan and “recession” for a few years. However, Climate change and global warming produced hyperactive cyclones in provide conditions congenial for en- locusts entered thrice into the coun- Punjab in Pakistan, spring breeding when conditions are congenial, they are visibly altering rainfall patterns May and October 2018, which hit the hanced locust breeding. try since 2019 through the India- is over and the adults are forming multiply. Outbreaks’ and upsurges globally. Since every degree increase Arabian Peninsula where it rained Pakistan border: In May 2019; swarms. Rajasthan, where maturing occur before a full-blown locust in temperature results in about 7 per heavily, resulting in pools of water in L OCUST PLAGUE 2020 November 2019-February 2020; swarms occur, has already received plague, like the ongoing one in Africa cent increase in the water holding the desert creating congenial condi- India had its last full-blown locust and in May 2020. The border States pre-monsoon rain in the first week of and south-west Asia. An outbreak capacity of air, global warming dir- tions for locust breeding. The plague in 1962, followed by intermit- of Gujarat, Rajasthan and Punjab June; active breeding and multiple occurs when increasing locust num- ectly results in higher levels of water swarms originating in Oman and Ye- tent upsurges and outbreaks; the last and Uttar Pradesh are experiencing generations can thus be anticipated. bers leads to gregarisation, which vapour in the atmosphere. Storms men, aided by wind, entered east upsurge occurring in 1997. Localised infestations since last winter. The happens over several months. This is and cyclones, therefore, carry more Africa, where they were again fa- breeding was observed and con- LWO reported control operations L OCUST CONTROL localised and restricted to certain moisture and deliver more intense voured by rains. They spread further trolled in 1998, 2002, 2005, 2007 against gregarious hoppers in the Locusts do not respect national habitats. rain. Aaron Putnam and Wallace to Iran and Pakistan; since June and 2010. There are several histor- first fortnight of April 2020 and boundaries. International coopera- Outbreaks, when left uncon- Broecker in 2017 argued that rainfall 2019, Pakistan has been plagued by ical records of desert locust attack in swarm movement in early May in tion is thus the key to locust control. trolled over two or more genera- in the tropics would increase and locusts. Early this year, Somalia and south Indian States such as Tamil deserts in Rajasthan. Swarms inva- Monitoring, early warning and pre- tions, develop into upsurges. Many that the subtropics would become Pakistan declared national emergen- Nadu and Kerala. E.C. Cotes has sion across India reached as far south ventive control of swarms in east upsurges finally lead to a locust more arid. The influence of climate cies to fight locusts. A team of re- placed on record that swarms from as Maharashtra and Bhopal in Mad- Africa, the Arabian Peninsula and plague sweeping across countries change on the incidence of pests and searchers, led by Wenju Cai, in 2014, north-western India penetrated the hya Pradesh to the east. Pakistan are crucial for India. The and continents. Since 1900, there diseases of crops is evidenced by the estimated that the frequency of pos- Madras Presidency in 1878, 1889 and The desert locust is devastating locust-affected countries all over the have been eight locust plagues in emergence of new pest and disease itive IOD events had increased 1890. Similarly, the United Nations’ agricultural crops in many States. world are coordinated by the FAO. south-west Asia (1900-1907; 1912- problems and the increasing severity threefold due to climate warming. Food and Agriculture Organisation The FAO has predicted a second The Desert Locust Information Sys- 1920; 1926-1932; 1940-1946; of existing ones. With the increase in extreme positive (FAO) has recorded swarms reach- wave of locusts from the Horn of tem (DLIS) of the FAO issues ad- 1949-1963; 1967-1969; 1988-1989, The current locust plague is IOD phases, we should be prepared ing Kerala in 1954. However, all Africa into India in June-July. An visories and warnings to countries and the current one). It is estimated linked to the weather dynamics of for more locust plagues. these appear to be cases of either advisory issued on June 10 warns of plagued by locusts. The DLIS fore- that about 29 million sq km, ex- the Indian Ocean called the Indian Thanks to major irrigation pro- Bombay locust or large, non-swarm- an imminent invasion coinciding casts the timing, scale and location of tending across 58 countries could Ocean Dipole (IOD). The Indian jects such as the Indira Gandhi Canal ing grasshoppers being misidentified with the kharif, the main crop season breeding and swarm movement. The be vulnerable to locust plagues, in- subcontinent divides the Indian that traverses the Thar Desert in Ra- as desert locusts. There is little evid- in India. On June 12, FAO put out LWO is tasked with monitoring, flicting massive damage and de- Ocean into the eastern and western jasthan, sand dunes are being con- ence that the current plague will information on the formation of new tracking and prevention of locust

F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 96 97 F RONTLINE . J ULY 3, 2020 AT SAMBURU county in northern Kenya, on May 21. GETTY IMAGES breeding and control in India. Teams equipped with vehicle- vehicles and equipment to the Ara- According to Swaminathan lo- mounted sprayers or aerial sprayers bian Peninsula every year between custs in the solitarious phase, imma- are effective against swarms. Direct 1955 and 1962. As the locust plague tures and swarms necessitate different application of chemical pesticides on is emerging as a transnational threat, control strategies. The FAO has re- swarms roosting on vegetation, dur- India should once again consider ex- commended application of spore sus- ing morning and evening, is the most panding its expertise and capabilities pension of the pathogenic fungus effective method. The Directorate of beyond its borders. Metarhizium anisopliae var ac- Plant Protection, Quarantine and The LWO needs to be upgraded ridium (strain IMI 330189), which Storage has approved five synthetic with adequate field stations, man- only infects locusts and grasshoppers, pesticides such as chlorpyriphos, power and equipment to meet the to destroy the immature stages of the deltamethrin, fipronil, lamdacyhalo- challenge. Over the past two decades, locust in deserts where the breeding thrin and malathion for the control the LWO was weakened, possibly be- takes place. Hoppers can be destroyed of swarms. cause there were no major infesta- by mechanical means; digging The absence of major invasions tions. The Indian Council of trenches using earthmover machines since 1997 has resulted in the lower- Agricultural Research and agricul- and burying marching hopper bands ing of guard against the desert locust, tural universities in the affected States are a common method. according to G.M. Patel, entomolo- should include desert locust among However, none of these methods gist, who has been involved in fight- their research priorities as there are are effective against invading swarms. ing infestations in the past and in the gaps in our knowledge of the bioeco- Swaminathan said farmers should be present one. According to him, the logy and management of the pest. acting as informers of swarm move- personnel involved in control opera- As the threat of the pest looms, it ment rather than taking control meas- tions are not experienced in dealing is time to formulate a long-term and ures in their own farms. Since it is with such massive infestations. durable strategy to fight the locust futile for farmers to fight the pest at As the locust attacks are likely to menace. २ the level of individual farms, it is in- become a regular scourge, India Dr K.D. Prathapan is an entomolo- cumbent on the government to reward should strengthen international, na- gist specialising in insect taxonomy and protect them so that they act as tional and regional linkages. India at the Kerala Agricultural Univer- early warners of swarm attacks. had sent self-contained teams with sity.

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