2011 ALMANAC of ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS

2011 ALMANAC of ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS Steven F. Hayward 2011 Almanac of Environmental Trends by Steven F. Hayward April 2011 ISBN-13: 978-1-934276-17-4 Pacific Research Institute One Embarcadero Center, Suite 350 San Francisco, CA 94111 Tel: 415-989-0833/ 800-276-7600 Fax: 415-989-2411 Email: [email protected] www.pacificresearch.org Download copies of this study at www.pacificresearch.org. Nothing contained in this report is to be construed as necessarily reflecting the views of the Pacific Research Institute or as an attempt to thwart or aid the passage of any legislation. ©2011 Pacific Research Institute. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or otherwise, without prior writ- ten consent of the publisher. To Julian Simon (1932-1998), for teaching us how markets, technology, and creativity have brought us the story of human progress. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Although mine is the name on the cover, the Almanac of Environmental Trends is like an elaborate stage play that depends on a lot of people behind the scene who make its production possible. My PRI colleagues Julie Kaszton, Kelly Gorton, Dana Beigel, Linda Bridges, and Michael Noffsinger, and Lloyd Billingsley do the bulk of the work transforming text and data into this Almanac, as well as designing and formatting the companion website, www.environmentaltrends.org. Research director Jason Clemens, marketing vice president Rowena Itchon, and events director Cindy Chin see to all the essential collateral measures to bring this project to a wider world. Thanks always to Sally Pipes, PRI’s irrepressible CEO, who has unfailing encouraged the evolution of this project since its inception in the early 1990s. None of this would be possible without the faithful support of our many enthusiastic donors, especially the Searle Freedom Trust and the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, for whom we cannot adequately express our appreciation. CONTENTS PREFACE ........................................................................... IX INTRODUCTION .................................................................1 A Retrospective on a Century of Environmental Progress .............................2 Improving Trends: Causes and Consequences ............................................5 Environmental Performance and Economic Freedom .................................12 What Are the World’s Most Serious Environmental Problems? ...................24 Conclusion ................................................................................................27 The Environmental Kuznets Curve .............................................................28 AIR QUALITY .....................................................................31 Introduction ...............................................................................................32 Air Quality Index .........................................................................................36 Main Types of Air Pollution .........................................................................40 Emissions versus Ambient Air Pollution ......................................................55 Other Hazardous Air Pollutants ..................................................................62 Most Polluted Cities ...................................................................................65 Prospects for Further Improvement............................................................71 Flashback ..................................................................................................78 Stratospheric Ozone ..................................................................................83 ENERGY .............................................................................87 Introduction ...............................................................................................88 The Top Five Environmental Issues We Don’t Know Enough About ....................... 94 CLIMATE CHANGE ..........................................................103 Introduction .............................................................................................104 Temperature ............................................................................................106 Precipitation ............................................................................................110 Tropical Storm Activity .............................................................................112 Sea Ice ....................................................................................................115 Sea Level .................................................................................................117 Climate Policy Indicators ..........................................................................121 WATER QUALITY .............................................................129 Introduction .............................................................................................131 National Water Indicators .........................................................................133 U.S. Geological Survey ............................................................................136 Total Water Use .......................................................................................139 Drinking-Water Quality .............................................................................145 A Primer on Hypoxia ................................................................................147 NASQAN .................................................................................................148 Case Study: Long Island Sound ..............................................................157 Case Study: Chesapeake Bay .................................................................163 The Cuyahoga Story ................................................................................172 Case Study: Lake Tahoe ..........................................................................176 Wetlands .................................................................................................178 The Great Lakes ......................................................................................179 The Everglades: Restoration Lagging .......................................................185 TOXIC CHEMICALS .........................................................187 Introduction: Thinking about Chemical Risks ............................................188 Toxics Release Inventory ..........................................................................192 Hazardous Waste ....................................................................................194 Human Exposure at Superfund Sites .......................................................195 Human Exposure to Environmental Chemicals .........................................196 Mother Nature as Polluter? ......................................................................197 Lead ........................................................................................................198 Mercury ...................................................................................................199 Dioxin Decline ..........................................................................................203 Pesticide Residue ....................................................................................205 Cancer Rates ..........................................................................................208 FORESTS AND LAND ......................................................211 Introduction: Global Deforestation Trends ................................................212 Private Land Trusts on the Rise................................................................218 Forest Trends in the United States ...........................................................218 More Wilderness than We Think? ............................................................221 Forest Fires ..............................................................................................225 Tropical Deforestation Overestimated? .....................................................228 Soil Erosion in the United States ..............................................................230 BIODIVERSITY .................................................................233 Introduction .............................................................................................234 The IUCN Red List ...................................................................................236 Fish Stock Sustainability Index .................................................................237 Bird Populations in the United States .......................................................239 The Dozen Best Environmental Books .....................................................241 PUBLIC OPINION ............................................................242 Is Green the New Blah? ...........................................................................250 APPENDIX .......................................................................251 ENDNOTES ......................................................................257 ABOUT THE AUTHOR .....................................................267 STATEMENT OF RESEARCH QUALITY ..........................268 ABOUT PRI ......................................................................269 PREFACE The Almanac of

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