Conference Proceedings of The 18" Annual National Co,iferen<;:e ofThe Nigerian Association OfAgricultural Economists Held At Federal University ofAgriculture, , 16" - 19th October; 2017,

ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON RICE OUTPUT IN , NIGERIA: 1990- 2015

Nte I. Nwali. and Frank N. Okoro Department of Agricultural Economics, Management and Extension, Ebonyi State University Abakaliki, Nigeria. *CORRESPONDENCE E-MAIL: franknna@yahoo,uk Telephone No. +2348065098290

ABSTRACT The study analysed the effects 'of climate change on rice output -in Ebonyi state. The study was necessitated by the fluctuating output of rice that m~y have not kept pace with population growth and also to fill the gap in the knowledge of effects of climate change on rice output. The objectives of the study were achieved using secondary data collected from EBADEP and NIMET from 1990-2015 where data on rice output and climate variables were collected respectively. Line graph and Cobb-Douglas functional form were used to analyse the data collected while F-test was used for test hypothesis. Results showed that onset and cessation of rainfall was in the month of May and November, respectively. Results also indicated that sixty seven percent (67%) of the fluctuations in the output of rice were accounted for by the explanatory variables included in the model. Specifically, rainfall (- 1.555) adversely affected rice output and was also revealed by the negative constant (-15 .333). However, evapo­ transpiration rate (2.027) and solar radiation (9.652) encouraged rice yields. Again the tested hypothesis affirmed that changes in climate variables adversely affected rice output in the area. The study therefore is of the opinion that climate change effects deleteriously affected the output of rice in Ebonyi state. However, the endowment of rivers in the state should be harnessed to provide irrigation agriculture to cushion the effects of extreme events of climate variables and farmers should change their time of planting to suit the changes in the climate variables. KEYWORDS: Ebonyi, output, evapo-transpiration, rainfall, cessation sunshine

INTRODUCTION Weather is the atmospheric condition of any location at a particular period. Climate on the other hand is the average weather condition of an area over a period of time say 30 years. This period is a period during which a number of changes in the variables that determine the predominant climatic pattern in the regions are known. The variables include rainfall, temperature, sunshine intensity, evaporation rate, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, cloud cover, snow, dew, frost and wind. Generally, climate change is a change in the state of the climate that can be identified, for example by using statistical test by changes in the mean and or the variability of its properties and that persist for an extended period, typically decades or longer. This is occasioned by global weather patterns like rises in temperature overtime, rainfall fluctuations and storm activities evolved from· the potential consequences of the greenhouse effects and continue deforestation (Ayoade, 2006; IPCC, 2007). The amount of rainfall, its intensity and distribution are characteristics affected by climate change and the uncertainties surrounding global warm,ing have reflected in diverse studies on climate change in Nigeria (Rao, 2006, Adefolalu, 2006). The two major factors affecting crop yields and productivity are weather condition and soil nutrients (Onyekwelu et al., 2006), thus to improve the production of any crop, it is rationale to understand the average weather conditions of such area. Climate change is one of the most serious threats to Nigeria agricultural sector and food security, because of its sensitivity and vulnerability to high ambient temperature ·and rainfall

Coonference Proceedings of The 1811, Annual National Conference of the Nigeria Association Of The Nigerian Agricultural 591 Economists Held at Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Nigeria 16'"- 1911, October, 2017 • Analysis Of Climate Change Effects On Rice Output In Ebonyi State, Nigeria: 1990- 2015

fluctuations. For instance, higher temperature lowers the yields of the desirable crops, while encouraging weeds and pests proliferation and changes in precipitation patterns increase the likelihood of short-run crop failure and long-run production declines, thus its variability create a huge challenge for food production (Claire, 2009). Climate change drive extreme weather events such as floods and the increased risks of drought, crop yields losses and are affecting all economic sectors to some degrees but the agricultural sector is the most vulnerable as agricultural production remains very dependent on climate resources (Ajokporise, 2011; Ayandele et al, 2010). In Ebonyi state, the low output of rice farmers may be attributed to high incidence of pests, weeds and diseases; and extreme events of the climate in the form of droughts, flooding and its consequences. However, in Ebonyi State, and Nigeria in general, there is increase in rice production but the current level of production may not still meet the estimated national requirement of 5 million metric tons of rice due to the incidence of climate change and increase in population that may have not kept pace with food production (Onyenweaku et al, 2000; Oselebe, 2013). Several research works have been conducted on climate change and crop production but little or none seem to have been done on climate change and rice output in Ebonyi state and as such the research tends to fill the gap in knowledge of climate change effects and rice output. Then, what are the cause of low output of rice in Ebonyi State? Are there changes in the onset and cessation of rainfall in area? The broad objective of the study therefore is to analyse the effects of climate change on the output of rice in Ebonyi state, Nigeria: 1990-2015. Specifically, the study sets to: determine onset and cessation of rainfall in the area and analyse the relationship between rice output and climate variables in the area. Hypothesis: the hypothesis which stated that climate variables have no significant effects on the output of rice in Ebonyi state was tested by this study.

Materials and Methods Study Arca: the study was carried out in Ebonyi state.

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According to (NPC, 2006), Ebonyi state has a population of about 2.1 million people spread within the thirteen (13) local government areas which occupied a total land mass of approximately 5,932 square kilometers. The state had made name in the area of rice production hence the popular Abakaliki rice and establishment ultr,a-modern rice mills in each of the zones in the state. The state is endowed naturally with rivers and arable land for different agricultural activities.

Coonfcrencc Proceedings of The 18'" Annual Natlpnal Conference of the Nigeria Association Of The Nigerian Agricultural 592

Economists Held at Federal University of Agriculture, Abcokuta, Nigeria J6' h - 19'" October, 2017. Analysis Of Climate Change Effects On Rice Output In Ebonyi State, Nigeria: 1990- 2015

Data Source: the data used for the study were sourced from Ebonyi state Agricultural Development Programme (EBADEP) reports on agricultural production survey ( data on rice output) -and data on climate variables were collected from Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Akanu-lbiam International Airport for the period under study. Analytical Techniques: the data for the study were analysed using line graph. The line graph was used to identify onset and cessation of rainfall in the area. The regression model related output of rice in kilogram per hectare to meteorological data (rainfall, temperature maximum, relative humidity, solar radiation and evaporation rate) was used to analyse the effects of climate change on output of rice in the area. F-test was used for test of hypothesis. The regression equation explicitly states thus: Cobb-Douglas Functional Form logYit = Po +pi!ogRt +P2logRht +p3logSht +p4logEpt +PslogTt + et------1 Where: Y = Yields of rice (t/ha), R = Rainfall annual average (mm), Rh= Relative humidity annual average(%), Sh= Sunshine hours annual average (hrs), Ep = Evaporation rate annual average (mm), T=Temperature annual average (0 C), et=Random disturbances, i = 1, 2, 3, --- n periods,

p0,= Intercept, P1 - Ps = Parameter estimates

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Determination of Onset and Cessation of Wet Season in the Study Area The onset and cessation of wet season in the area was determined using moisture budget. This was obtained by plotting the graph of precipitation against evaporation rates within the period under study. This relationship was presented in Figure 1.

Coonference Proceedings of The 18th Annual National Conference of the Nigeria Association Of The Nigerian Agricultural 593 th h Economists Held at Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Nigeria 16 - l9' October, 2017. Analysis Of Climate Change Effects On Rice Output In Ebonyi State, Nigeria: 1990- 2015

Figure 1: Moisture Budget Showing Onset and Cessation of Wet Seasom

-+-Rainfall E(mm) -Evapo E (mm) 300 ~·-~-~--..---~-~-~--.----r----.---~---.-~ 1 9 8

7

6 e .§. ...QI 5 ..IU C 0 4 :;::: ..IU a.0 i IU 3 w>

2

r 1 I 0 +---i----+--+----t---+-----,1----+----t-----+- JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JU JLY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC Months

From Figure 1, -precipitation (PE) is less than evapo-transpiration rate (ET) i.e., (PE

Table 1: Effects Changes in Climate Variables on the Output of Rice Variables Coefficients Standard error t-values Prob. Rainfall(mm)(X1) -1.555 0.481 -5.198*** 0.000 Temp.max(0 C) (X2) 3.396 7.699 0.188 0.853 Solar radiation (X3) 9.652 7.410 1.855* 0.079 RH(%)(X4) -5.182 11.806 -0.518 0.611 Evaporation(mm) (Xs) 2.027 0.517 3.399** 0.003 (Constant) -15.333 0.435 -3.527** 0.004 R2 0.677 R2 adjusted 0.664 F-ratio 11.189*** Durbin Watson 1.761 Source: Survey, 2017 *, **, & ***=significant at 10%, 5%, and 1% respectively

1 Coonference Proceedings of The 18' ' Annual National Conference of the Nigeria Association Of The Nigerian Agricultural 594 Economists Held at Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Nigeria 16th -19th October, 2017. Analysis Of Climate Change Effects On Rice Output In Ebonyi State, Nigeria: 1990- 2015

From Table 1, the -R2 value of0.677 implied that sixty seven percent '61J'o) of the variations in the output ofrice in the area were accounted for by the explanatory variables included in the model. This was further justified by the F-ratio of 11. 1•89 which indicated that the coefficients of the explanatory variables were statistically different from zero, hence the goodness-of-fit of the model. Specifically, rainfall (-1.555) was negatively related to rice output. This showed that rainfall had an adverse effects on the yields of rice in the study area. This finding is in consonant with the findings of Rudolf and Herman, (2009) and Sowunmi and Akintola, (201 0) whose works reported that rice output was negatively affected by extreme events of excess rainfall due to flooding, waterlogged conditions and drought conditions created by late arrival of wet season. Again -they stated that, even if there were sufficient rainfall, its irregularity and distribution could affect yield adversely especially if rain failed to arrive during the critical growing stage of the crop. From the point of view of the negative constant (-15.333) which was negatively significant at 1% level revealed the decline in the output of rice within the period due to the variability of climate variables in the form of extreme events of rainfall and other climate variables. Solar radiation (9.652) was positively related to output of rice. This was consistent with the findings of Awoke and Nte (2014) who reported that solar radiation quantity available for crop utilisation encouraged the photosynthetic activities of ~rops and yields. From hypothesis tested and the decision rule (F* >F-tab reject null hypothesis); F-ca1(8.358) >F-tab(2.71) at 5% level. The study therefore rejects null hypothesis and concluded that changes in climate variable had adverse significant effects on rice output. CONCLUSION Having analysed climate change effects on rice output in Ebonyi state, Nigeria: 1990- 2015, and the point of view of negative coefficient of rainfall and the negative constant, the study therefore concluded that climate change had led to a shift in the onset and cessation of wet seasons in the area and as such, have deleteriously affected the output of rice in the area.

RECOMMENDATIONS • The endowment of rivers in the state should be harnessed to provide irrigation agriculture to cushion the effects extreme events of climate variables • Farmers were advised to change their cultural practices, especially the time of planting to suit the changes in the climate and its effects. • Farmers should insure their crop against losses and failures accruing from climate change. • The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET') in Ebonyi State should ensure regular seasonal rainfall prediction which is a vital weather advisory and early warning tool for farmers to ensure preparedness against climate risk and associated hazards.

Coonference Proceedings of The 18th Annual.National Conference of the Nigeria Association Of The Nigerian Agricultural 595 th th Economists Held at Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Nigeria 16 - I 11 October, 2017 • Analysis Of.Climate Change Effects On Rice Output In Ebonyi State, Nigeria: 1990- 2015

REFERENCES Adefolalu J.O (2006) Food crop production in Nigeria II. Potential effects of climate change 32: 229-245 Ajokporise D (2011) Perception and Impact of climate variations on crop production Sapele delta state Nigeria. JORIND (9):1596-8308 Awoke MU and IN Nte (2014) Climate change and effects on selected crops in Ebonyi state, Nigeria. International Journal ofAgricultural Economics and Management. 4(1): 1-12 Ayandele A, TO Odekunle, 0 I Orinmogunje and N O Adeoye (2010) Impact of climate variability on tuber crop in Guinea Savanna part of Nigeria: a GIS approach. Journal of Geography and Geology 2 (1)27-35 Ayoade J O (2006) Climate change effects on cassava production in Nigeria. Global Journal of Science Frontier Research 12 (2) 55-68 Claire, S. C. (2009).Deutsche Bank Research on Global food equation; Food security in an environment of increasing scarcity. IPCC (2007) Climate change: the physical science basis contributions of working group I to the forth assessment report of the IPCC edited by S. Solomon, Z.Chen, K.B.Avery, and H.L.Miller Cambridge and New York. Cambridge University Press NPC (2006) National Population Commission report of2006 census. , Nigeria. Onyekwelu J.C., Reinhard M., Bernd S (2006) Productivity, site evaluation and state of nutrition of Gmelina arborea plantations in Luwa and Omo forest reserves, Nigeria for Ecological Manage 229:214. Onyenweaku, C.E., Agu, S.E. and Obasi, F.C. (2000). Economics of small scale Rice Farming under different production systems in South Eastern Nigeria. Nigeria Journal ofAgric. Business Rural Development 1(1):2 Oselebe, H.O. (20 I 3), Knowledge and Technology Transfer for Agricultural Revolution in Ebonyi state. The Indonesian Agriculture Support Programme (IASP) for Nigeria. Pp 56-58 Rao, C.S (2006) Environmental Pollution Control Engineering. New age International Publication Rudolf W and Herman N (2009) Climate risk and farming in rural Cameroon, Institute of Development and Agricultural Economics, University of Hannover, Germany 2 l-24pp. Sowanmi F.A and Akintola J.O (2010) Effect of Climate Variability on Maize Production in Nigeria. Research Journal of Environmental and Earth science 2(1) 19-30.

Coonference Proceedings of The 18th Annual National Conference of the Nigeria Association Of The Nigerian Agricultural 596

th th Economists Held at Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Nigeria J6 - J9 October, 2017.