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IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin 22

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IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin 22 SEPTEMBER 22 IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin AUGUST 2011 dogged reformer, President Rousseff’s on August 24th Rousseff reportedly Brazil: Dilma’s disapproval rate has doubled to 25% pledged not to fire any more ministers. since her inauguration in January, Even if she can hold her coalition dilemma and the overall approval rate for her together, Dilma’s honeymoon is over, government recently slipped below and the attempt to fossick corruption the all-important 50% threshold. from government ranks is the reason. SEAN GOFORTH Elder political voices are charging To fall from the frying pan into the Professor, Coastal Carolina University, her with being naïve, incompetent, coals, Brazil’s economy is overheating. United States or both. While this is normal fare in Inflation is at the outer band that the democratic politics, given Rousseff’s central bank has set for tolerable lack of previous political experience it price rises, and the government Looking back on the momentous erodes her authority more than other could easily fall into a serious budget gains chalked by Brazil’s former leaders in such positions. deficit should commodity prices fall. President Luiz Inácio ‘Lula’ da Silva, On a practical level, it is making her Curbing consumer credit, mitigating it is easy to fall into the habit of coalition harder to manage. inflows of hot money, and diversifying projecting forward based on past In August the Party of the Republic left Brazil’s economy away from iron ore trends. Unfortunately, this is specious Rousseff’s coalition. It’s a relatively and soybeans will require a sustained reasoning. Brazil’s momentum could insignificant party whose most commitment by Rousseff’s team of easily carry the country off the tracks. salient leader was the Transportation truly skilled technocrats. The hard and thankless task of Minister that Rousseff fired. But As domestic pressures mount, Brazil’s moving Brazil forward is frustrating murmurs are growing that if more foreign policy is losing thrust. Lula President Dilma Rousseff. officials are sent packing, the PMDB positioned Brazil as Latin America’s Rousseff’s troubles span both the – the largest partner of Rousseff’s superpower, a major financier of domestic and international arenas. Worker’s Party – will break with the African development projects, and At home, the fight against corruption President. The PMDB is widely seen an arbiter of Iran’s nuclear program. has become a pointed political issue. as a beneficiary of graft across Brazil. He also set the stage for expansion Last month Agriculture Minister First, though, erstwhile allies into a new frontier: Palestinian Wagner Rossi got sacked, the fourth retaliated by leaking reports of independence. In December 2010, one cabinet minister to be replaced by corruption among Rousseff’s inner month before Dilma took office, Lula Rousseff in 72 days. Below the level of circle. José Dias, a political consultant recognized the state of Palestine along cabinet chief, the trend is even more in Brasília, likens Rousseff’s actions to Israel’s pre-1967 borders, causing a unsettling: nearly 100 officials from hitting a “wasp’s nest”. In an interview snowball of such declarations across the agriculture, tourism, and defense with Reuters, he goes on to say: “This South America. Since then, Brazilian ministries have been either fired corruption sweep is snowballing out foreign policy has gotten mired in or arrested on corruption-related of control, it’s extremely dangerous. efforts to chastise Chinese and US charges under Rousseff’s watch. She’s already lost her legislative monetary policies. Yet Rousseff’s attempt to “clean up” agenda, and now she risks growing Presuming Brazil’s economy does not is backfiring.R ather than appearing a instability”. With her allies howling, come apart at the seams and Rousseff IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin | 2 is able to halt the slide in poll numbers, Sunlight is said to be the best CPLP is a source of information, her reform-oriented agenda may still disinfectant. Attacking corruption and also of cooperation, namely in fall victim to Brazilian voters’ inflated is an enviable way for Rousseff to terms of educational training and expectations. There aren’t many improve government services while other exchanges. As an organization, parallels in Latin America (because distinguishing her government and especially with the growing democracy is still relatively new to from that of her predecessor. Still, ascendance of Brazil as an economic the region), so perhaps an example for political and pragmatic reasons and democratic giant in the South, from the United States is instructive. President Rousseff might consider the CPLP has the potential to be an President George H. W. Bush (1989- returning to Lula’s shadow. important promoter of best practices 1993) followed Ronald Reagan, a in all the Portuguese-speaking man who received credit for putting countries. America’s economy on track for an Back in 2010, Equatorial Guinea was era of growth that carried it into the not accepted as a member in the CPLP twenty-first century, not to mention Equatorial plenary meeting, held in Luanda. winning the Cold War. There’s a feat. At the time, the CPLP members Except Reagan is only partially Guinea fakes issued a statement laying out two responsible: the end of stagflation fundamental reasons for refusing came because Paul Volcker, installed this petro-dictatorship membership as Federal Reserve chairman by reforms to enter to the club. Firstly, Equatorial Guinea Jimmy Carter, broke the back of is not a Portuguese-speaking country inflation by mercilessly jacking up the CPLP – it is a Spanish speaking country. interest rates. Carter paid the political Despite the fact that President price for Volcker’s boldness; Reagan MARINA COsta LOBO Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo enjoyed the benefit. O( n the fiscal Science Researcher, Institute of Social had issued a decree which declared front, Reagan’s policy decisions Sciences, University of Lisbon that Portuguese was henceforth to produced mixed results, at best.) And be the third official language a few the aura of Reagan winning the Cold days before the decision on entry to War is a tad overblown. Sure, the Great Last year, Equatorial Guinea almost the CPLP was about to be made, this Communicator told Mikhail Gorbachev became a member of the Community was deemed insufficient evidence.O n to tear down the Berlin Wall, but of Portuguese-speaking Countries the other hand, the regime also has the Soviet Union dissolved under (CPLP). The CPLP, an international one of the worst records in terms of President Bush’s watch, and it is Bush organization created in 1996, includes human rights abuses in Africa. – not Reagan – that deserves credit the following countries at present: Over the years, Equatorial Guinea for beginning the re-incorporation of Angola, Brazil, Cape Verde, Portugal, is the country that has been most Germany, Eastern Europe, and Russia Mozambique, São Tomé and Príncipe, insistent on joining the club. It is both into the global economy. and Timor Leste. In its statutes, it one of the richest countries in Sub- Like Bush, Rousseff’s presidency purports to be an organization of Saharan Africa, and one of the most owes to a predecessor’s tailcoats. Portuguese-speaking countries repressive dictatorships. President And like Bush, Rousseff finds herself which aims to promote cooperation Obiang has been in power for the last governing a country with a new mass in all policy areas and the Portuguese 30 years. Recently, the country has of soft power; the major question language. been trying to gain some international that remains is how to parlay that Despite being cash-poor, the CPLP credibility. At present, Equatorial soft power. Bush chose a meek is a transcontinental organization Guinea’s membership would send route; Dilma should become a re- that has some potential. Brazil a strong signal to others that only born apostle of Lula. She can ignite sees it as a stepping-stone for its economic criteria matter for the a regional free trade agreement, and international ambitions, namely in CPLP, whereas political and language become the world’s sponsor of African Africa. For Angola, an oil-rich regime requirements can be ignored at will. development and sustainable energy with a dismal track record in terms Despite vetoing its entrance in 2010, production. Obviously, the latter two of political liberties and civil rights, the CPLP encouraged Equatorial would build on initiatives started by it constitutes a forum in which to Guinea to make changes in order to Lula, but making progress on these gain some international credibility. be able to become a member of the fronts will prove an easier task than In Portugal, the CPLP is part of a CPLP in the medium term. In that ambling through policy outlets like strategy of multiplying alliances context, in May this year a CPLP cracking down on corruption or (Atlantic, European, Portuguese- delegation went to visit the capital of cajoling monetary policies in Beijing speaking) in order to gain some soft Equatorial Guinea, Malabo, to check and Washington. power. For the other members, the on the progress made since 2010. IPRIS Lusophone Countries Bulletin | 3 Following the official visit, head of Korea, Somalia, Sudan, Turkmenistan the delegation ambassador Luís and Uzbekistan. Fonseca made a statement declaring In Equatorial Guinea there is no himself very satisfied and indicating freedom of association, all protests that everything is being done to allow are forbidden, arbitrary and illegal Equatorial Guinea’s entrance into detentions are frequent, and there the CPLP in 2012. It would indeed is no freedom of the press. Both in be excellent if the CPLP exerted terms of the internal dynamics of the a positive influence on Equatorial CPLP and its values, the entry of one Guinea’s dictatorial political regime.
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