Data Analytics Applied to Football and Football Players
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Data Analytics applied to Football and Football Players Final Masters Dissertation Project presented to Católica Porto Business School to obtain the master’s degree in Management with specialization in Business Analytics by José Heitor Machado Mesquita Guimarães under orientation of Professor Maria da Conceição Andrade e Silva, Ph.D. Católica Porto Business School March 2018 To my sister Joana because you are awesome. iii Acknowledgments At the conclusion of yet another stage of my academic life, I find it important to express gratitude to those who, directly or indirectly, contributed to this achievement. To God who always blessed me with opportunities and always walks beside me. To my family that always supported me and my academic ventures, giving me more than just strength but also values of respect, humility and perseverance. To all my professors, especially Professor Maria da Conceição Andrade e Silva, who always supported my idea and helped me transform it into this dissertation. To all, I say thank you, and I hope to make you proud. v Abstract Football is the most popular sport in the world and it is undergoing a process of implementing analytics in decision making. This quantitative study aims to identify a set of Technical Performance Indicators for players of 7 different positions and analyse the aggregate performance of the players of those positions. The positions used were: Goalkeeper, Full Back, Centre Back, Holding Midfielder, Attacking Midfielder, Wide Midfielder and Striker. To be able to conduct these analyses, the match data of the technical actions of the Portuguese Primeira Liga 2016/2017 season players were extracted from an online platform and an Access database was developed. The identification of the indicators was successfully achieved by a clustering analysis, which used the K-Means technique, and a quantile analysis. These studies revealed 16 Technical Performance Indicators that varied and had different values of relevance from position to position. Afterwards, a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model was used to compile the technical indicators and analyse the aggregated performance of the players using that composite indicator. This last study presented results, however, due to limitations related to the weight awarded to the outputs, they are not the most accurate. The present research study was based on the academic article from Hughes, et al. (2012), “Moneyball and soccer - an analysis of the key performance indicators of elite male soccer players by position” and it tried to prove analytically what was only empirically stated in literature before. Keywords: Football Analytics; Technical Performance Indicators; Performance Analysis vii Resumo O Futebol é o desporto mais popular do mundo e está a no decurso de um processo de implementação do analytics na tomada de decisão. Este estudo quantitativo tem como objetivo identificar um conjunto de Indicadores de Performance Técnicos para os jogadores de 7 posições diferentes e analisar o valor da sua performance agregada. As posições usadas são: Guarda-redes, Defesa Lateral e Central, Médio Centro, Ofensivo, Ala e Avançados. De forma a realizar estas análises, os dados de jogo relativos às ações técnicas dos jogadores da temporada de 2016/2017 da Primeira Liga foram extraidos de uma plataforma online e, com eles, uma base de dados foi criada no Access. A identificação dos indicadores foi conseguida com sucesso através de uma análise de clustering, que utilizou a técnica de K-Means e uma análise de quantis. Estes estudos revelaram 16 Indicadores de Performance Técnicos que variavam e tinham diferentes relevâncias de posição para posição. Seguidamente, um modelo de Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) foi usado para compilar os indicadores técnicos e analizar o valor de performance agregada de cada jolgador, usando esse indicador compósito. Este último estudo apresentou resultados, contudo, devido a limitações relacionadas com o peso atribuído aos outputs, estes não são os mais precisos. O presente estudo teve como base o artigo académico de Hughes, et al. (2012), “Moneyball and soccer - an analysis of the key performance indicators of elite male soccer players by position” e tentou provar analiticamente o que só tinha sido empiricamente referido na literatura anterior. Palavras-chave: Analytics no Futebol; Indicadores de Performance Técnicos; Análise de Performance ix Index Acknowledgments ......................................................................................................... v Abstract ......................................................................................................................... vii Resumo ........................................................................................................................... ix Index ............................................................................................................................... xi Index of Figures ........................................................................................................... xv Index of Tables ............................................................................................................ xix Index of Equations .................................................................................................... xxiii Introduction .................................................................................................................. 25 Methodology ................................................................................................................ 27 Literature Review ........................................................................................................ 33 1. Data and Analytics in Sports ............................................................................. 33 2. Analytics and Match Analytics in Football ..................................................... 36 2.1. Psychological Performance ........................................................................ 37 2.2 Physical Performance .................................................................................. 38 2.3 Tactical Performance.................................................................................... 40 2.4 Technical Performance ................................................................................ 41 Business Understanding ............................................................................................. 43 1. Business Objectives ............................................................................................. 43 2. Assessing the Situation ...................................................................................... 44 2.1. Available Data and Resources ................................................................... 44 2.2. Primeira Liga................................................................................................ 45 2.2.1. 2016/2017 Season ................................................................................. 47 Data Collection and Description ............................................................................... 49 1. Data Collection and Database Development .................................................. 49 2. Data Description, Exploration and Veracity ................................................... 52 Data Preparation .......................................................................................................... 59 1. Data Preparation ................................................................................................. 59 2. Preliminary Data Analysis ................................................................................. 60 3. Modelling Dataset ............................................................................................... 72 xi Modelling and Evaluation .......................................................................................... 77 1. Clustering Analysis ............................................................................................ 77 1.1. Aerials ........................................................................................................... 79 1.2. Shot Blocks ................................................................................................... 79 1.3. Pass Blocks ................................................................................................... 80 1.4. Cross Blocks ................................................................................................. 81 1.5. Clearances..................................................................................................... 81 1.6. Dribbles ......................................................................................................... 82 1.7. Interceptions ................................................................................................ 82 1.8. Short Passes .................................................................................................. 83 1.9. Long Passes .................................................................................................. 83 1.10. Cross Passes ............................................................................................... 84 1.11. Saves ............................................................................................................ 84 1.12. Feet Shots .................................................................................................... 84 1.13. Head Shots ................................................................................................