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Regional Capacity Assessment & Projections

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Regional Capacity Assessment & Projections APPENDIX 3 Regional Capacity Assessment & Projections Regional REGIONAL CAPACITY Priorities ASSESSMENT & Local Future State PROJECTIONS: Health ReCAP Findings 2009 Provincial FINAL October 2009 Priorities Achieving Health Results that matter South East LHIN Local Health Integration Network Réseau local d’intégration des services de santé ReCAP 2009 1 South East LHIN Regional Capacity Assessment & Projections Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS..................................................... 2 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS................................................ 3 Overview ........................................................................ 3 Demographics ................................................................ 3 Population Projections................................................... 3 Aging Population............................................................ 4 Data Issues ..................................................................... 4 Francophone .................................................................. 4 Chronic Disease and Risk Factors................................. 5 Unattached Patients ....................................................... 5 Primary Health Care...................................................... 5 Community Health Centres ............................................ 5 Emergency Department Utilization................................ 5 Utilization of Hospital Inpatient Services ...................... 6 Alternate Level of Care (ALC) ....................................... 6 Surgical and Medical, Day/Night, Rehabilitation, Complex Continuing Care.............................................. 7 Adult Inpatient Mental Health........................................ 8 Addictions....................................................................... 8 Home Care ..................................................................... 8 Community Support Services.......................................... 8 Conclusion...................................................................... 9 2. FACTS AND FIGURES ................................................ 10 Population .................................................................... 10 Socio-economic Status.................................................. 11 Aboriginal Population.................................................. 11 Health Status ................................................................ 12 Health Behaviours........................................................ 12 Primary Health Care.................................................... 12 Emergency Department (ED) Visits ............................. 12 Acute Inpatient Separations ......................................... 13 Alternative Level of Care (ALC) Separations............... 14 Day/Night Procedures.................................................. 15 Adult Inpatient Rehabilitation visits............................. 16 Complex Continuing Care (CCC) ................................ 17 Adult Inpatient Mental.................................................. 18 Home Care ................................................................... 18 Long-Term Care........................................................... 19 Community Support Services........................................ 20 Community Health Centres .......................................... 21 Addictions Services....................................................... 22 RECAP SECTOR PROFILES.......................................... 24 RECAP SUB-LHIN PROFILES....................................... 24 ReCAP 2009 2 South East LHIN Regional Capacity Assessment & Projections south). Areas to the south also contain most of the urban Summary of Findings communities in the LHIN. Over 60% of the population is located in five of the 15 sub-LHIN planning areas. Overview Population Projections The purpose of the ReCAP report is to provide local data, where possible, that would support discussions related to the The South East LHIN population is projected to grow at 0.3% per development of the second Integrated Health Services Plan year over the next 3 years and 0.6% over the following 5 years. (IHSP2). The guiding principle behind this is that if Although the overall projected LHIN growth is generally reflected programs/services are to meet the needs of those they affect, then across sub-LHIN areas, there are a few areas where the growth greater emphasis has to be placed on the evidence behind local rates should be noted: planning and be supported by the collection and analysis of Increases for age groups: 45-64 years in Belleville (4% available data and projections at the local level. per year) and South Frontenac (5% per year); 65-74 in South Frontenac (10% per year) and Smiths Falls, Perth For the purpose of comparing information in sub-geographic & Lanark (5% per year); 85+ in Stone Mills, Loyalist regions, the South East LHIN has been divided into 15 sub-LHIN (14% per year), Prince Edward County (6% per year) and areas. They include: South East Leeds & Grenville (4% per year). Addington, North & Central Frontenac Decreases for age groups: 0-19 in Central Hastings and Belleville Nort h Hast ings North Hastings as well as 20-44 in Central Brockville Hastings, North Hastings, South Central Hastings Sm i t h s Fa l l s, Perth,Lanark East Leeds & Grenville and Gananoque, Leeds Addi ngt on - 416 7 North/Central Frontenac South East Leeds Grenville Smiths Falls, Perth, Lanark Kingston & the Islands 62 Ri d ea u La k es all less than 4% per year; North Hastings Brockville Prince Edward County Central Hastings 15 85+ in South Frontenac (>10% Quinte West South Frontenac Gananoque 401 per year) and Addington, North & 37 - Leeds Rideau Lakes Stone Mills 41 - Loyalist Central Frontenac (7% per year). Kingston Smiths Falls, Perth & Lanark Belleville Tyendinaga & Islands - Napanee South East Leeds & Grenville Qui nt e West South Frontenac 49 A major factor influencing the population projection is in-and- Pr i n ce Ed w a r d Stone Mills, Loyalist 62 out immigration. Based on the results from the 2006 census, there Tyendinaga, Napanee is a higher percentage of in-migration within the 45-64 age groups for Central Hastings, North Hastings, Prince Edward County, Quinte West, Rideau Lakes, Smiths Falls, Perth & Lanark and Demographics South Frontenac. At the same time, there was also a notable Population demographics play an important role in health system population reduction in the 15-34 age group as a result of out- utilization trends and, by extension, health-care planning and policy migration in all areas except Belleville, Brockville and Kingston & development. In 2007, the population of the South East LHIN was Islands. 481,000 with 17% over 65 years of age. Overall, the South East LHIN has a higher percentage of elderly individuals than the rest of Another factor affecting population projections is the fertility the province (17.1% vs. 13.2% for persons 65+ in 2007). The distribution. Rural areas such as Addington, North & Central South East LHIN population is unevenly distributed with larger Frontenac, South Frontenac, Quinte West, Tyendinaga, Napanee, populations found along the highway 401 corridor (running east- Gananoque, Leeds and Rideau Lakes have higher fertility rates west) and a portion of the highway 416 corridor (running north- when compared to the more urban areas where most of the births ReCAP 2009 3 South East LHIN Regional Capacity Assessment & Projections occur within the ages of 20 to 29. In all areas, the teen birth rate is approximately 20% or lower, with the notable exception of The North American (NA) Indian made up the largest proportion of Belleville, where the teen birth rate is over 30%. individuals identifying as Aboriginal (56%) followed by those identifying as Métis 36%. the Métis population is on the rise, outpacing the growth of the other groups, as well as that of the Aging Population non-Aboriginal population, over the past decade. The 65+ population in the LHIN is expected to increase by approximately 21,000 from 2006 to 2011, representing a 4.3% Age Structure increase in this cohort. Data projections suggest that both the 65- The age distribution of on-reserve First Nations peoples 74 and 75+ age groups will increase in volume, but only the 65-74 (considered to be younger) differs substantially from the Ontario age group will increase in percentage growth. Although the per population as a whole. In 2007, 36% of the on-reserve registered capita health spending for persons aged 65+ averaged three to population was under the age of 20 in comparison to 24.3% of the five times more than for younger individuals, the aging of the off-reserve registered population and 25.1% of the Ontario population is too gradual a process to rank as a major cost driver population. Consequently, compared to the Ontario population, the in health care. Aboriginal population has a smaller proportion of older people. In 2007, 6.8% of the on-reserve registered population was aged 65 Elderly Living Alone or older, compared to 9.8% of the off-reserve registered Indian Residents who live on their own tend to be more dependent on population. Both percentages are substantially lower than the both formal as well as informal supportive care; the percentage for 13.2% of the Ontario population aged 65+ in calendar 2007. all sub-LHIN areas ranges between 17% and 31%. Belleville has the highest percentage of individuals 65+ living alone (31%) while Data Issues Stone Mills, Loyalist
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