Herpetological Conservation and Biology 10(2):621–632. Submitted: 30 September 2014; Accepted: 23 June 2015; Published: 31 August 2015. GEOGRAPHIC RISK ASSESSMENT REVEALS SPATIAL VARIATION IN INVASION POTENTIAL OF EXOTIC REPTILES IN AN INVASIVE SPECIES HOTSPOT IKUKO FUJISAKI1,3, FRANK J. MAZZOTTI1, JAMES WATLING1, KENNETH L. KRYSKO2, 1 AND YESENIA ESCRIBANO 1University of Florida, Ft. Lauderdale Research and Education Center, 3205 College Ave., Davie, Florida 33314, USA 2Florida Museum of Natural History, Division of Herpetology, 1659 Museum Road, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611-7800, USA 3Corresponding author, e-mail:
[email protected] Abstract.—Invasive species are among the primary threats to biodiversity and risk assessment is one problem-solving approach that can prioritize and guide efforts to reduce the negative consequences of invasion. We used a niche- modeling framework to conduct a geographic risk assessment of exotic reptiles in the state of Florida, USA, a region with the highest density of invasive herpetofaunal species in the world. We then compared model predictions with observed records of exotic species across the state. We compiled georeferenced native occurrence locations of exotic reptile species found in Florida and used maximum entropy modeling with global-scale environmental data as inputs. The predicted number of species with suitable habitat was variable across the state and by management units, and it generally decreased with increasing latitude. These predictions were supported by observed richness of exotic species in the lower latitude and the known problem of exotic reptiles in southern Florida. Overall, minimum temperature made the greatest contributions in model predictions, but the level of each variable’s contributions varied by species.