TRANSIT TRANSIT A BOLD BOLD A VISION
Fall 2018
Carnegie Mellon University Tepper School of Business
B U I L D I N G E X C E L L E N C E
www.mckamish.com CONTENTS | Fall 2018
05 President’s Message 07 Advocacy Update 31 Eye On the Economy 35 Office Market Update SVN | Three Rivers Commercial Advisors 39 Industrial Market 07 Executive Director’s Message Update Grant Street Associates/ Cushman & Wakefield 43 Capital Market Update 47 Legal / Legislative Outlook 49 Benchmarks Pittsburgh’s Multi-family Market is Showing 08 Feature Resilience A Bold Transit Vision 55 Voices 58 News from the Counties 67 People / Events 72 BUYER’S
2018 GUIDE 25 Development Project Ashby at South Hills Village
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EDITOR As my second and final term as • Streamlining DEP state Jeff Burd president for NAIOP Pittsburgh is permitting processes 412-366-1857 coming to a close at the end of 2018, [email protected] • Support of the Bus Rapid I am pleased to report that the chapter Transit between Oakland and is strong and, more importantly, Downtown Pittsburgh PRODUCTION positioned well for the future of Carson Publishing, Inc. commercial real estate in the region. • Allow for 1031 like-kind real Kevin J. Gordon estate exchanges to be recognized In my two years as president, we have [email protected] in Pennsylvania had a great deal of successes. We • Pushing for reduction of proposed GRAPHIC DESIGN have continued to focus on the three core goals that grew out of our 2017 increase to Electric Standby Tariff 321Blink strategic plan – advocacy, membership with Public Utility Commission and communications. These will guide CONTRIBUTING PHOTOGRAPHY • Visits to Washington DC to NAIOP Pittsburgh as we plan for the discuss commercial real estate Port Authority of Allegheny County future. Highlights have included: Desmone Architecture development issues with our RIDC • Hired three outstanding people elected officials. Allegheny Conference on Community starting with Brandon Mendoza • Support for infrastructure and Development (Executive Director), David Caliguiri transportation investment. (Public Affairs Consultant) and Erica Tall Timber Group Loftus (Chapter Administrator). • Ensure capital and credit markets meet the current and future CONTRIBUTING EDITORS • Record sponsorship and greater needs of the commercial real Karen Kukish than 650 guests at our 25th Annual estate industry. Awards Banquet in 2018. ADVERTISING SALES • Support of Environment and • Honored our outgoing Executive Energy Efficiency. Karen Kukish Director Leo Castagnari who 412-837-6971 served NAIOP Pittsburgh well for • Re-engaging the Construction [email protected] twenty years. I would encourage Legislative Council and with the others to recognize Leo with a Building Owners and Manager’s MORE INFORMATION: contribution to the Castagnari Association’s legislative affairs DevelopingPittsburghTM is published by Family Charitable Fund through committee to combine efforts Tall Timber Group for NAIOP Pittsburgh pittsburghfoundation.org. on shared goals. 412-928-8303 • Became active and engaged in • Restarting of the statewide www.naioppittsburgh.com local issues impacting commercial initiative in conjunction with real estate investment and NAIOP Philadelphia to address No part of this magazine may be development in the region issues affecting both eastern reproduced without written permission including the City of Pittsburgh’s and western Pennsylvania. by the Publisher. Riverfront Zoning initiative and the The groundwork has been established All rights reserved. increase in the City of Pittsburgh’s for NAIOP Pittsburgh and Western real estate transfer tax. Pennsylvania to continue to thrive as This information is carefully gathered • Hosted innovative and attractive NAIOP Pittsburgh has been investing and compiled in such a manner as to programming by our Developing resources for the betterment of the ensure maximum accuracy. We cannot, Leaders with project tours across commercial estate community. It’s been and do not, guarantee either the cor- the region including a half-day bus an honor to be at the helm during this rectness of all information furnished tour for multiple airport properties, exciting time. nor the complete absence of errors and a project tour of the Kaufmann’s Thank you! omissions. Hence, responsibility for same Grand on Fifth Avenue luxury neither can be, nor is, assumed. apartment project and a lunchtime tour of 420 Boulevard of the Keep up with regional construction Allies with special guest speaker and real estate events at: Dan Gilman, Mayor Peduto’s www.buildingpittsburgh.com Chief of Staff. • Continuation of the Mentorship Program for our Developing Leaders. • Visits to Harrisburg to discuss commercial real estate development issues with our elected and public officials. Agenda items included: David Weisberg NAIOP Pittsburgh President
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s I begin my tenure as executive When it comes to membership, I will be I am hoping to see many of you at our director at NAIOP Pittsburgh, I focused on retention, growth, and driving upcoming events, including the 19th A am excited about the wealth of ROI. I value all of our members and I Annual Night At The Fights on November opportunity in Pittsburgh and the unique want to see their businesses succeed. I 1st, please reach out to me if you’re role that NAIOP occupies in advancing this believe NAIOP Pittsburgh can continue to interested in sponsoring and/or attending region. As I reflect on NAIOP Pittsburgh’s support our members’ growth, while also the event. Further, in the coming months, strategic positioning, I am focused on enhancing the benefits of our membership. I am planning on meeting with as many transforming our advocacy strategy, further In the coming months, under the board’s of you as possible. If you have project developing ROI for our membership, and leadership, I will be exploring ways to concerns or other matters, please feel free revamping our communications strategies enhance our membership benefits. NAIOP to reach out to me. I am here to help you to ensure we are meeting our stakeholders Pittsburgh will have an open-door policy and your businesses grow. on the platforms they utilize. for all our members. If you have a policy concern or a membership issue, please feel Sincerely, When it comes to advocacy, we will be free to reach out to me. proactive, and we will show leadership in the policy development process. This Given the communications environment proactive approach will allow for greater we are currently in, where we see the success and influence. Additionally, NAIOP President of the United States engaging in Pittsburgh will further develop our strategic direct communication with his followers relationships with our region’s elected via his Twitter account, NAIOP Pittsburgh leaders and other like-minded advocacy cannot afford to ignore this paradigm shift. groups. I will also seek to leverage the Given this new environment, we will be relationships of our members, many working to revamp our communications of whom have deep connections and strategy with a mobile and social first Brandon J. Mendoza relationships with our region’s elected and approach. We will evaluate our website and Executive Director NAIOP Pittsburgh civic leadership. social media sites to ensure members have the best experience possible.
NAIOP ADVOCACY UPDATE
n 2017, NAIOP Pittsburgh’s Board of for NAIOP than anyone and he will be By engaging our members and Directors participated in a strategic missed. His departure gave NAIOP an developing a responsible alternative, Iplanning session to set the course of opportunity to bring in a new Executive NAIOP was able to have numerous the organization for the next decade. The Director, Brandon Mendoza. Brandon meaningful discussions with local elected process was very informative and insightful was previously a public affairs expert officials. Working with the Mayor’s for all participants. We learned a lot with the Greater Pittsburgh Chamber of administration and members of City about our membership and their different Commerce – an affiliate of the Allegheny Council, NAIOP was able to positively concerns and priorities. However, one Conference, where he led local and affect the legislation. area clearly became the top priority for federal government affairs. everyone involved; advocacy. Going forward, NAIOP Pittsburgh will This year, NAIOP participated in a be engaging on a number of federal, As a result of the strategic plan, NAIOP number of meetings and discussions state, and local policy issues, including has made several changes to tackle with local elected officials regarding the advancing the Oakland-Downtown Bus advocacy issues on behalf of our 350 proposed Riverfront Zoning legislation. Rapid Transit development, the ongoing plus members. First, we created a new This legislation was drafted by Cities Pittsburgh Water and Sewer Authority and advocacy committee. This committee Planning Commission Members and water quality debates, regional transit, is charged with providing board and Planning team and was a central focus airport area transit buildouts, and DEP member leadership to help guide the of the Peduto administration. It was permitting reform. We are also focused chapter in vetting policy issues. further designed to replace the interim on tracking the progress of the final planning overlay district that had been in rulemaking for the federal Opportunity Second, we hired a public affairs firm place since 2016. Early iterations of the Zones program. We look forward to that will help NAIOP navigate the political legislation placed a number of undue engaging membership and elected process and allow us to have a more burdens on developers, many of which officials as we can to grow NAIOP vocal say when public policy affects are our members. Our development Pittsburgh as the region’s largest industrial our industry. Finally, after more than community’s goal is to continue the trend real estate association. DP 20 years, Leo Castagari retired from of preserving and restoring Pittsburgh’s his position as NAIOP’s first and only riverfronts with high quality projects that Executive Director. Leo has done more showcase the city’s transformation.
www.developingpittsburgh.com 7 AA BoldBold PublicPublic TransitTransit VisionVision
8 DEVELOPING PITTSBURGH | Fall 2018 he old model is broken. Pittsburgh developed into a The systems for moving suburban workplace, with T people through public Downtown less of a focus. transit no longer serve the way Public transportation declined we work and play; and the and highway capacity grew. means for funding public transit are no longer adequate. That’s What’s occurring economically a tough place to start for a bold today is necessitating a vision of the future of transit hard look at the regional in Pittsburgh. Yet, in the same transportation problem. way that accepting that you Downtown is growing again have a problem is the first step as a work center but it’s the in recovery, understanding that connections to the other the current system for delivering centers of economic activity transit and transportation that are driving this need to solutions won’t provide the best re-envision transit. Oakland solutions for Southwestern PA has always been a center of may be the first step forward. job creation but the pace of There will likely be a pendulum job creation and the economic swing in the direction of public spinoffs from the universities investment in infrastructure and UPMC are creating an again, but it seems unlikely almost existential need for to occur in time to meet connection. The new economy Pittsburgh’s needs for growth. of Pittsburgh depends on As an industrial city, Pittsburgh getting talent to Oakland, was something of a model which is well-served by bus, for public transit. Trolleys, but the need to link Oakland’s buses, and inclines directed talent with research and workers Downtown, where development in nearby places the majority of people in like the Strip District, Bakery Pittsburgh worked. Those that Square or Hazelwood, is just worked in manufacturing jobs as critical. And this talent will lived in neighborhoods or arrive by airplane to an airport towns that grew up around the that is connected to the most plant, usually within walking important parts of the city by a distance of work. Post-industrial crowded, undersized highway.
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10 DEVELOPING PITTSBURGH | Fall 2018 FEATURE
Transit’s future isn’t being ignored. The It’s difficult to Allegheny Conference on Community plan for billions of Development convened a task force of dollars in transit transportation experts and civic leaders investment, while to form the Regional Transportation ensuring that the Alliance. That Alliance spent thousands investment won’t of hours in 2016 studying Southwestern be made obsolete PA’s transportation system and by technology gathering information about what the advances, with future might hold for the region. a sense of high urgency. Yet, that’s Progress continues on the region’s what is required. In first major transit expansion since many ways, this is the North Shore Connector, the Pittsburgh’s time. bus rapid transit (BRT) line that will Waiting to see what connect Downtown to Oakland and shakes out in the communities to the east. future of transit is safe but it may take These efforts, and others like them, are time the region constrained by the limitations of what’s doesn’t have. practical. Public authorities, like the Port Authority of Allegheny County, and It’s About elected officials must worry about their Connections constituents. The vision of the future is seen through the lens of conventional In the fast-growing funding sources and conventional Southern cities wisdom. Without the permissions of the that boomed in the taxpayers who elect them and pay their 1980s, like Atlanta salaries, it would be irresponsible for or Dallas, high- the elected leaders of the region or the capacity beltway Commonwealth to plan beyond what systems were built they can pay for. But thinking beyond to circumnavigate what is practical may be the only way the denser parts to plan now for what will be needed of the city and in the future. better connect the workforce to It’s not difficult for these leaders to the employment envision the future of the region’s centers. A skilled Port Authority of Allegheny County economy in terms that may not be worker in an practical. Mayor Peduto talks about eastern Dallas future mobility in Jetson-like terms. suburb has are growing at a rapid pace. Even if The idea of affordable housing and access to jobs on the northwest that growth is in a low-tax environment an economy that is equitable for side of town via a limited access (like Texas’) the sheer volume of new all is outside the realm of practical. interstate, cutting what could companies and residents will grow Leadership that inspires looks beyond be an hour commute in half. In the tax base. For older regions with what is practical. Pittsburgh, such connections exist established tax bases, the task is more by the coincidence of where existing difficult. That’s not just because it will It seems unquestionable that emerging infrastructure is. Westinghouse’s be harder to fund transit expansion, technologies will disrupt whatever bold move to Cranberry Woods was less but also because older cities in the U.S. vision of transit emerges. Autonomous disruptive to employees because of often have density and/or topography vehicles or flying cars may render the easy Turnpike connection between working against them. That is certainly highways – and light rail systems Monroeville and Cranberry Township. the case in Pittsburgh. – obsolete in five or 50 years. Less The same may not have been true technological advances are impacting had the corporation chosen a site in There’s another tough issue in transportation as well. Bike usage is Southpointe or near the airport. regional transportation, especially if on the rise. More people are moving regional leadership includes a wide to communities where they can walk To prepare for growth, infrastructure band of stakeholders. The impulse to work and play. These changes in will need to be enhanced by building to create a regional transit system behavior and technology won’t make all to make connections that do not that touches all parts of the region is the connections that are needed now if currently exist. That’s easier to do in strong but that may not also be the Pittsburgh is to grow into its future. places where population and business right approach. In Southwestern PA,
www.developingpittsburgh.com 11 FEATURE FEATURE
and Nova Place succeeded by investing ahead of the growth that innovation has driven. Burns & Scalo’s Riviera office building and 3 Crossings 2.0 are banking on that trend continuing. Doesn’t it make sense to place a similar bet on innovation driving transit demand?
Pittsburgh’s headline connection is Downtown to Oakland. Downtown is where the support infrastructure for technology The average cost of transportation for Pittsburgh residents pushes the total cost of housing and trans- exists. The lawyers, bankers and portation to 41 percent of income. Source: H+T Index. Center for Neighborhood Technology. consultants that serve innovation are mostly based Downtown. the Regional Transportation Alliance Those would be the projects we should That connection is also vital because saw this first hand when it created the pursue.” Oakland is home to universities that are Imagine Transportation 2.0 report in enormous consumers of the services 2017. Partners in Indiana County and Where are the important priority that Downtown companies provide. Greene County had input and deserve connections? Imagine Transportation And, of course, the region’s largest consideration in thinking about the 2.0 didn’t specify them but the healthcare system maintains millions long-term future of Southwestern employment centers of today are of square feet in both Oakland and PA, but the urgency of connecting Downtown, Oakland and the fringes Downtown. The justification for the those outlying counties to the job beyond Downtown. There is bus BRT could be based on the commerce creating hubs of the region does not service connecting most of these and development potential from exist. Those counties outside the areas but little rapid, on-demand healthcare alone. metropolitan area have transportation service. What has emerged over the past decade are satellite employment needs and deserve attention to those Perhaps the most difficult important centers in the Strip, East Liberty and needs, but resources devoted missing connection to envision is Lawrenceville. These centers have to connecting those counties to between these employment centers emerged because they are home to Oakland or the airport might be better and Pittsburgh International Airport. the industries that could be Pittsburgh’s used elsewhere. The I-376 corridor plays an important future growth engines. Connecting role in connecting the airport to all “The report alone was never going these centers to each other and the points of the region, but it suffers from to be sufficient to change things university centers that are the life blood the limitations that a surface highway but it began the process of getting of the emerging industries would be a has. Traffic patterns are unreliable people to think about the things that great start. and subject to disruption from even were to come. I think one of the minor accidents. There is no room for important things that we were able to For similar reasons, a connection capacity expansion for major stretches achieve with the report was getting from Second Avenue back to Oakland of I-376 between town and Robinson our decision makers and people is a critical connection. Pittsburgh Township. Weather can be a problem. in a position of influence to really Technology Center has been the home to many university research tenants but grapple with it in a tangible way,” says Ron Tarquinio, principal at often the users of those spaces have Carly Dobbins-Bucklad, senior policy TARQUINCoRE, laments that the complained of being disconnected analyst for the Allegheny Conference opportunity to create a connection to from the campuses. World-class and one of the leaders of Imagine the airport was lost when the Parkway researchers don’t come to Pitt or CMU Transportation 2.0. “We needed to start West was designed. He recalls hearing to be a ten-minute car ride from the something where there is alignment of whispers that the Downtown business heart of campus. Now, with Hazelwood our priorities in order for us to start community influenced the decisions to Green emerging as a major hub for honing in on our priorities. have as few interchanges as possible, robotics research and development, in order to keep development from “You still have to actually take the next the critical mass is building for demand leaking west. Conspiracy theories aside, step. The next step involves honing in from that corridor. Tarquinio says that when a NAIOP on a handful of those priorities, fleshing Corporate was engaged to analyze them out. What do the options look Technology innovation has been the potential commercial uses of the like? Who has to be at the table? Then the payoff for most of the limited former international airport in Moon we use that information to determine speculative development that has Township, the experts concluded that what will be the biggest bang for our occurred in Pittsburgh over the past the site lacked access to highways and buck and have the biggest impact. decade. Schenley Place, 3 Crossings wouldn’t redevelop well.
12 DEVELOPING PITTSBURGH | Fall 2018 FEATURE
A high-speed public connection to the transit planning will have to undo the One of Pittsburgh’s selling points, airport would have the added benefit shift in transit orientation from mass particularly to those in high tech, is of multiplying connections because of public transportation to cars over the its affordability. With a low median some of the infrastructure investment past 50 years. Chris Sandvig, director housing price, Pittsburgh trumpets its that has already been made. The of policy for the Pittsburgh Community livability, but the shift to the suburbs has limited-access highway connecting the Reinvestment Group (PCRG), points made its transportation costs rise. The airport to I-79, variously known as the out that attempts to make the city Center for Neighborhood Technology Airport Connector and the Southern more car-friendly damaged some of analyzes major cities for the overall Beltway, has become incredibly Pittsburgh’s oldest neighborhoods. cost of living and computes a Housing valuable because of the emergence + Transportation Index (H+T) that of the natural gas play. Assuming “When you step back and look at how reflects the average share of income this corridor also gains an interstate our region works, how our region that these factors consumes. For designation (I-576) when it’s completed, began, we were not a car-first region. Pittsburgh, the H+T is 41 percent. That the 30-mile stretch of highway will be When we tried to make places in our fares very well with Seattle’s 46 percent, ground zero for future investment in urban environment car-first, we ended Atlanta’s 48 percent or Houston’s 45 downstream industrial development, up destroying the fabric of those percent. The surprise is that Pittsburgh’s as it connects Southpointe and Greene communities,” Sandvig says. “When you H+T score is five points higher than County to Shell’s polyethylene facility think about East Liberty and the urban Philadelphia and eight points higher in Beaver County via I-376 and to the renewal project that happened there than Washington DC. Housing costs Dilles Bottom cracker to the west via or what happened with Allegheny City in both of those cities is considerably I-70 or 22/30. when Allegheny Center was developed, higher than Pittsburgh’s but the we are not that sort of city. Our transit ample public transit options mean Getting talent and business travelers usage shows that. And many of the that residents rely on much cheaper from city origination points to the people we’re trying to help are transit- transportation. airport and the energy corridor reliant. If Pittsburgh is going to see the expands the impact of the future growth that we all want to see, transit development to the west of the city. needs to be at the center of all that.” As Pittsburgh’s East End neighborhoods have revitalized in recent years, the disconnection of the Airport Corridor has become more pronounced. Young talent, migrating to Squirrel Hill or East Liberty, is reluctant to deal with the traffic of a Parkway West commute, especially when so many other employment options exist nearby. General Electric’s Additive Customer Experience Center at Chapman Westport is reported to be experiencing difficulty in recruiting for that reason.
Connecting these centers also means connecting underserved communities to workplaces that aren’t currently accessible. Future
www.developingpittsburgh.com 13 FEATURE
Sandvig’s work at PCRG has been years. During his time there, Denver’s Lawrenceville. He dreams of a fast- focused on enabling transit-oriented Regional Transportation District – their moving connection between the Strip development (TOD). He says that TODs counterpart to the Port Authority – built District/Lawrenceville and Hazelwood play an important role in bringing equity and expanded a light rail system that Green that would service the heart of to a region because they move jobs connected the wide-ranging places Pittsburgh’s new economy. closer to the people who need them if where the new economic drivers of the TOD is done right. He also explains Denver have grown. “Can you imagine the robotics that TODs have a financial advantage engineers at the Tech Forge, who have over other commercial development. “The transit system in Denver grew a meeting at the Advanced Robotics for from two or three lines to almost Manufacturing facility in Hazelwood, “PCRG has been working on a lot of becoming a beltway around the jumping on an eight-seat electric issues related to reinvestment in urban city. They also built a light rail to the vehicle or something like that and communities, predominantly in the airport that was huge,” Noland says. arriving in a few minutes?” he asks. city but also in the outlying counties,” “There’s an area, South Broadway, says Sandvig. “We started our transit that’s becoming a transit hub. It’s the Desmone describes an existing program, called GoBurgh. It grew equivalent of putting a transit center on Allegheny Valley Railroad line that runs initially out of a realization from some Banksville Road that would serve as the from the Strip behind the old Pittsburgh of our members that the infrastructure hub for all the rail south of the city. You Brewing at 32nd Street, follows the piece in redevelopment, if done can imagine what has happened East Busway before entering a tunnel right, could reduce the subsidy that to South Broadway. There has been in Bloomfield. The line then exits near people were pursuing to do bricks and new development of condos, Central Catholic, continuing between mortar development.” retail and commercial all around the Pitt and CMU before reaching Second transit center.” Avenue. That line was abandoned by The value in connecting these CSX when the carrier transitioned to important centers of employment, The area surrounding Banksville Road double-stacked cars and picked up by present and future, to people and is already fairly densely developed with AVRR, which also connects it to the amenities is in ensuring that talent neighborhood commercial product but lines along the Allegheny River. AVRR can be and go to where it wants imagine what a transit center located would have to be convinced to share to. The residual benefit of building between the West End and McKees the underutilized line and there would a system of connections is that the Rocks might spark. How attractive have to be logistical solutions designed, system becomes the blueprint for would the affordable communities but it is the imagining of a transit development. The Southern cities that in the Mon Valley become if a robust solution that is usually more difficult exploded in the 1980s and 1990s built transit line connected Oakland to than the execution. highways that stretched beyond where Charleroi, or the Mon-Fayette was people were, and in doing so created completed to Hazelwood? Funding the Vision the places that people would ultimately go. In almost all of those cities, land One Pittsburgh architect has given There are many hurdles that exist to the was plentiful, cheap and often flat. a lot of thought to the transit vision. execution of a bold transit vision but Atlanta’s outer belt or Dallas’s Central Chip Desmone, principal at Desmone none are as daunting as the challenge Expressway developed in farm land Architects, has designed and developed of funding the projects. Infrastructure far from the city. Growth filled commercial projects throughout investment receives its fair share of in the blanks later.
What was discovered in these car-centric cities in the decades that followed their initial booms was that the same thing happened when rail systems were built. In fact, in many cases, the rail system rejuvenated areas that had fallen fallow as the cities pushed outward.
Jamey Noland, director of underwriting for PenTrust Real Estate Advisory Services, lived in Denver for 15 More than a dozen regional transit authorities have placed billion-dollar measures in front of voters since 2016.
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campaigning but elected officials have because it involved a failed vote in 1997 California authorities, four of which shown little desire to follow through that was followed by two decades of received strong majority support but with remedial infrastructure spending, leadership that sold the vision of the fell short of the two-thirds majority that let alone bold investment. From the future to the citizens. Denver’s story is California law mandates. federal government on down, there not unique. More than a dozen major isn’t the political will to invest in cities have gone to their voters with Among the measures voted upon in mass transit. This has led to regional multi-billion dollar proposals, with other cities, programs were approved solutions that go outside the norm. mixed results. by voters in Charleston SC ($2.1 billion), Wake County NC ($2.3 billion), and Other cities have recognized that The two biggest programs were Los Atlanta GA ($2.5 billion). Voters in their needs were more urgent and Angeles’ $121.4 billion Measure M and Southeastern Michigan and Broward expansive than would be served by the Seattle’s $53.8 billion Sound Transit 3. County FL turned down $4.7 billion and traditional process of applying to the Measure M authorized a half-cent sales $6 billion measures respectively. Federal Transportation Administration tax to fund $113 billion in new transit or lobbying their state legislature. In and improvements through 2040 and Against the backdrop of these a number of cases, growing or large passed with 71 percent approval. Sound proposals, Pennsylvania’s Act 89 of cities have taken the case directly to Transit 3 used a combination of small 2013 may not seem all that bold, but it the voters. Civic leaders in Pittsburgh increases in sales and property taxes, was an ambitious step outside the box are familiar with the $4.7 billion plus motor vehicle fees, to fund 62 for a legislature that had been opposed FasTracks referendum in Denver and miles of transit expansion between to raising fees or taxes on residents. An their subsequent expansion referenda. 2024 and 2041. Among the dozen unprecedented coalition of corporate, Denver’s story is something of a model other referendums were six from government, civic, and labor leaders
www.developingpittsburgh.com 17 FEATURE
from infrastructure a death spiral for public transportation investment to paying in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. PAT’s for state police patrols new CEO, Katharine Eagan Kelleman, of communities that has focused on changing the culture can’t afford their of transit and improving the experience own police. Some for the systems’ riders. Within the $400 million each year, a more ambitious plan for how year to pay for the to enhance public transportation in revenues that were Allegheny County will be underway at lost when the tolling PAT, but the funding for growth won’t of Interstate 80 was come from Act 89. not approved, an outcome that the PA There exists a blueprint for future legislature failed to transportation that has been developed take into account. by the Southwestern Pennsylvania Act 89 has been a Commission (SPC). Mapping the beneficial piece of Future: The Southwestern PA Plan Rental rate performance for transit-accessible buildings far outstrips legislation, but not was developed in 2015 and amended that of car-dependent buildings. Source: Transwestern. to the degree it was in September 2017 to be the plan anticipated. for investing in the infrastructure for successfully pushed the legislature to the SPC’s ten-county region. The reverse a narrow “no” vote and pass What has worked from Act 89’s passage plan identifies capital projects and the measure overwhelmingly within 48 has been the benefit to the state’s investments to improve the region’s hours. two major public transit systems. The infrastructure and transit systems. additional $144 million in transit funding Mapping the Future calls for $29 billion In 2018, Act 89’s full funding expansion allocated to Southeastern PA Transit in investments through 2040. Of that of $2.3 billion is in effect, but political Authority and the Port Authority of figure, $14.3 billion is earmarked for moves since 2013 have eroded the Allegheny Co. allowed each to stop the roads and bridges, and $14.6 billion for effectiveness of the measure. Hundreds erosion of service that was becoming public transportation. of millions of dollars have been diverted
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00066-Developing Pittsburgh Magazine Ad (NAIOP).indd 1 8/18/2016 2:14:26 PM 18 DEVELOPING PITTSBURGH | Fall 2018 The plan is an outgrowth of SPC’s residents of Southwestern PA don’t widely accepted in Pittsburgh as role as the guidance for PennDOT have access to the information that beneficial to a sustainable and equitable and the Commonwealth in planning would make them aware of the critical economic future. According to infrastructure spending each year. role that access to transit plays in Transwestern, a global commercial real As such, SPC is limited in its planning economic development. Something estate developer and investor, there is to existing funding sources like the similar to the Regional Transportation a more practical rationale: higher rent National Highway Priority Alliance (which still exists) could be the and occupancy. Program (NHPP) and the Surface clearing house and convener for pulling Transportation Program (STP). together the vision and communicating Transwestern’s July 2018 report on the it to the voters. Perhaps the lessons impact of transit-accessible properties Getting beyond those budgeted learned from responding to the in 15 major US metropolitan markets funding sources, regional authorities Amazon HQ2 request for proposals can (Pittsburgh was not among these) can look to alternatives that are still be the template. found that central business district locked into the existing framework of (CBD) rent was 65 percent higher funding solutions. These alternatives Selling a sales tax or other revenue- in transit-accessible buildings than can include private/public partnerships generating strategy will be made more car-dependent buildings. The study (P3), Regional Transportation Districts, difficult by the fact that the buyers are found a 50 percent rent premium Transportation Revitalization Investment dispersed into multiple counties and for transit-accessible buildings in the Districts, Private Activity Bonds or long- even more municipal taxing authorities. suburbs. Vacancy was also impacted term bond borrowing against future It won’t be easy but worthwhile by access to transit. Transit-accessible revenue or tax streams. None of these ventures seldom are. buildings had average vacancy rates of are sufficient or suitable for funding an 8.3 percent, compared to 9.1 percent expanded transit system that connects It’s hard to imagine that the rationale for car-dependent buildings. the areas that are economic and behind a bold transit plan would need social drivers to all the residents of to be sold to the business community. Getting to the Future metropolitan Pittsburgh. Most of the principles guiding such a plan – density, connections between There is one forward-looking transit What it will likely take to act upon a collaborators, talent attraction, linking project in the pipeline for Southwestern bold vision is a sales job. Many of the capital and support to innovation – are PA. Proposed four years ago, the bus rapid transit (BRT) connection WALKABLE. BIKEABLE. SUSTAINABLE.
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www.developingpittsburgh.com 19 FEATURE
between Downtown and Oakland innovation to drive development of has progressed through the feasibility the Uptown corridor that links Oakland and fund-raising stages to become a to Downtown. BRT stops throughout viable project. Through community Uptown are meant to be commercial meetings, PAT received feedback that hubs for development. led it to define the route and stops of the BRT, expanding its reach beyond The Pittsburgh BRT project garnered Oakland to the eastern neighborhoods high marks from the Federal Transit that are thriving. Those neighborhoods Administration but did not receive the include Squirrel Hill, Shadyside and $98 million in funding in the current branch routes that connect riders in fiscal year funding. PAT expects that its Greenfield and Highland Park. With resubmission for 2019 will be funded. dedicated lanes, limited stops and In July, the Port Authority approved advanced technology for traffic control, a contract with AECOM to design the BRT is designed to move people the system. Armed with $39 million between Downtown and Oakland in in state backing, PAT plans to begin seven minutes or less throughout the construction during the first half business day. of 2019 and begin operating buses Petuum Inc.- Office Fit-Out in late 2021. A light rail system that connects Downtown to Oakland, and to the research facilities on Second Avenue and Hazelwood Green, is on the wish list of most observers of Pittsburgh’s “The options are revitalization. A BRT alternative to light rail makes sense for a couple of reasons, however. First and foremost is different now the cost. At $195 million, the proposed Downtown-to-Oakland BRT is a major than they used capital investment for PAT, but one that pales in comparison to the billion-dollar price tag of even a short rail project. to be. It’s not And, it is one that can fit within the limited federal granting programs. BRT so cut-and- Southern Tier Brewing Company - Pittsburgh requires much less time to develop, likely delivered in two years after construction starts. Most desirable of dried because all, a BRT system is flexible rather than fixed. Should technology make such of technology” a system obsolete or impractical in a decade (or less), the infrastructure for a BRT can be adapted or returned to its original purpose. Bus rapid transit to Oakland can’t Pittsburgh’s BRT route has the be the only solution to connecting advantage of linking two of the region by transit. A bold vision of Pennsylvania’s largest employment transit can’t be “future proofed” but centers that are currently growing technology can help with making the towards each other organically. From most of the solutions that are available. Oakland’s gateway to the eastern edge Point Park University of Downtown is less than 20 blocks, “The options are different now than Center for Media Innovation and the bleeding edges of development they used to be. It’s not so cut-and- in both neighborhoods are but ten dried because of technology,” says blocks separated and closing. Indeed, Dobbins-Bucklad. “In the past if you LANDAU BUILDING COMPANY Uptown has already created an wanted to take a step forward In RELATIONSHIPS I REPUTATION I RESULTS economic development model called transportation you went light rail. Now the Pittsburgh EcoInnovation District, that’s not the only option. We have the which is meant to marry the grass ability to dynamically route vehicles. We 724-935-8800 I www.landau-bldg.com roots sustainability/energy movement have autonomous vehicles. Common with the job creation of technical shared mobility is now possible. There are private operators working to fill the
20 DEVELOPING PITTSBURGH | Fall 2018 gap. They are able to do that because of technology like real time information and location-based services.”
“Optimization of routes used to be one of the most complicated and resource-intensive things you could General Residential Contractor ask a computer to do. Now we do it in with an extended mission to promote employment seconds with a map app on the phone! of area residents and MWBE subcontractors. That’s what technology lets us do,” she continues. “That’s what is changing our SKYLINE TERRACE ability to think about how we can stitch a lot of different things together so that it’s not a one-size-fits-all solution. We can create a very flexible demand- driven solution that is lighter weight on capital investment.”
Rail-Volution, a national transit movement and no-profit organization that helps people and institutions build livable cities, recognizes that there is something going on in Pittsburgh. The organization’s annual conference will be held in Pittsburgh from October Photo: Charles Uhl 21-24. Pittsburgh’s development community has been supportive of THE OVERLOOK Rail-Volution and the conference will devote part of its time to educating attendees about what transit projects are going on around the U.S. and the impact of those projects.
“Rail-Volution is the premier transit and livability conference in the country. This is the first time Pittsburgh has had the opportunity to host, as the conference is usually held Photo: Massery Photography, Inc. in cities with larger transit systems PLEASANT RIDGE including San Francisco, Denver, or Chicago,” says Lynn DeLorenzo, principal at TARQUINCoRE and co-chair, sponsorship for Rail-Volution Pittsburgh. “Included will be a ‘Regional Day’ that will give the local Pittsburgh market a chance to participate in the discussion on the top transit and mobility priorities for the region with Photo: Charles Uhl experts providing innovative ideas and solutions to challenges cities CRESCENT COURT face today. Given the difficulties with funding transportation today, we all need to be a part of the conversation as well as the solution.”
Finding and funding a transit vision for the future is fraught with difficulties. Perhaps the plans for the Pittsburgh International Airport are an example of the difficult choices regions face. Photo: Charles Uhl Mistick Construction | 1300 Brighton Road | Pittsburgh, PA | 412.322.1121 www.mistickconstruction.com
www.developingpittsburgh.com 21 Allegheny County Airport Authority world class facility again and people “The money shouldn’t matter,” asserts CEO Christina Cassotis has created one should be able to reach it using fast Chip Desmone. “Figure out what the best of Pittsburgh’s biggest public sector public transit. The question should solution would be. Make that happen and success stories, more than doubling not be which of these two important then go get the money for it.” the number of direct flights from PIT in initiatives is more important but rather just a few years. Although the airport how do we fund the completion of Ron Tarquinio sums up his still gets good reviews, Pittsburgh both. feelings about future economic International is a pre-9/11 facility that opportunities by referring to a was built as a hub for an airline that A bold vision isn’t practical or current high-profile opportunity. no longer exists. The Airport Authority conservative, two qualities that has shown vision in backing a $1.2 Pittsburghers like to feel they possess. “If you can’t get from here to there, you billion terminal modernization program Looking at what moves growing vibrant can’t develop. Think about the Amazon but voices of caution have also been cities, however, it is difficult not to opportunity. If Pittsburgh loses, it won’t suggesting that a better investment notice that a well-connected transit be because of quality of life. It will be would be a transit connection to the system is one of the main ingredients because we can’t get people from one airport. The airport should become a Pittsburgh is missing. place to another without public transit,” he concludes. DP
22 DEVELOPING PITTSBURGH | Fall 2018
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Babst_Construction_DEVPGH_8.625x11.125.indd 1 8/16/16 6:52 AM Development Project
The Ashby at South Hills Village
onstruction wrapped up in July different about the Ashby property is driving occupancy and sustainable on the $41.7 million Ashby at its integration into the Port Authority rents,” notes Nathan Lutz, director at CSouth Hills Village Station, a of Allegheny County’s (PAT) South Hills SunCap. “And even though it’s a mature 300-unit apartment complex developed Village light rail station and parking market, you can quickly rattle off the by a partnership of Massaro Properties, garage. Ashby at South Hills Village few apartment projects that have been Atlanta-based The Dawson Company Station is the first suburban transit- done there. There was Lincoln Pointe and SunCap Property Group. The oriented development in Pittsburgh. 25 years ago, then the Torrente and project began leasing its first units at the Massaro Dawson developed the now the Ashby.” beginning of 2018 and has performed property, which sits across the street above expectations. from the South Hills Village Station, The project is the first to be after responding to a request for successfully executed by PAT. It Ashby at South Hills Village Station is proposals from PAT in September 2012. was the opportunity to create such an upscale four-building apartment The following year, SunCap Property a partnership that attracted the complex with a community building, Group joined as co-developer and developers’ interest. large swimming pool and lots of capital source. lifestyle amenities. That hardly makes “To be part of a team that did the first it unique among new multi-family “The South Hills is clearly a built-out of this type of suburban transit-oriented products delivered in Pittsburgh market but the transit-oriented development in Pittsburgh was very during the past five years. What is development means a lot relative to exciting to us,” says David Massaro,
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26 DEVELOPING PITTSBURGH | Fall 2018 president of Massaro Properties. Dawson. “If the authority sells the get approved by the Federal Transit “We were also interested in being land it has to give the proceeds to the Administration. There was much able to help the Port Authority take federal government. To the extent more involved in justifying all the an underutilized site and make it an that it can lease the land and increase economics and getting the contract economic development driver. We ridership, a transit authority meets its language needed for approval to do looked forward to making a project federal mandate and adds revenue over the land lease.” that was an economic benefit to the and above what it gets from fares.” taxpayers, the residents and the Port Some of the three years of Authority. It was a great location and While the land lease can be an obstacle preconstruction were spent satisfying there hadn’t been new product in that for some developers – the process is the FTA approval process but the arc area for some time.” cumbersome – there are advantages of the project’s development was also that make the arrangement attractive. slowed by an intentional rethinking of The South Hills Village Station had the property’s design. The Ashby would some limitations to transit-oriented “It’s a good deal for the developer too be among the first new apartment development. The station is the end because you don’t have to have as projects delivered in the Bethel/Upper of the light rail transit line and is much upfront capital expense,” notes St. Clair submarket and the developers located on the Bethel Park/Upper St. Pope. “We’re talking hundreds wanted to ensure the quality of the Clair border, where commercial land of thousands of dollars instead of project matched the expectation of the uses aren’t very flexible. Moreover, tens of millions.” market. Upper St. Clair, in particular, agreements between PAT and Simon has a predominance of single-family Properties, which owns South Hills Getting through the bureaucratic properties, so the developers took time Village, prohibited retail and dining process of satisfying the Federal Transit to better understand who their renter uses that would be competition Administration (FTA) on the 110-year would be. Pope says that experience with the mall’s tenants. For Dawson land lease was more difficult than had taught Dawson that proximity to Company, however, building executing the same kind of lease with a transit station wouldn’t apartments in proximity to transit a local government or private entity. ensure occupancy. stations was something with which While Dawson had experienced how it was comfortable. tedious the process of crossing “T’s” “We’ve been doing transit-oriented and dotting “I’s” could be, its local development around the country for “We have done a number of projects partner had not. about 15 years. We’ve come to the like this. Transit-oriented development conclusion that transit is necessary but provides great operating revenue “The biggest challenge was dealing not sufficient. The development has for the transit authority by leasing with the whole transit administration to make sense on its own,” says Pope. underutilized commercial real estate,” process and what it took to enter into “We built a quality product at the Ashby. explains Bailey Pope, senior vice a land lease with the Port Authority,” We have spacious apartments, high- president design & construction, for Massaro recalls. “It was not easy to quality finishes and appliances, and get everything together in order to
www.developingpittsburgh.com 27 top-of-the-line amenities. That’s what just Downtown commuters, but that and fairly flat but there were a few makes a good project.” access to the train makes it easy for issues that arose from working adjacent residents to get to Pittsburgh’s cultural to an existing transit system. Pope Lutz notes that SunCap plans to amenities without driving. And roughly recalls that extending the utilities to the keep Ashby in its portfolio and made half of the eventual residents will have site caused some indigestion for PAT. decisions about the project that leased spaces in the PAT garage. With reflect that. a bridge connecting the garage to half “We had to cross under the light rail the buildings, residents will be able to tracks with our utilities. Port authority “We made choices about the go directly from their parking space to engineers don’t like anyone getting construction that were going to cost their building. near their tracks,” he chuckles. “You us more – the amount of masonry work through these things.” being used, the level of finish and As planning for the Ashby at South amenities – because we intend to Hill Village Station wrapped up, the To Kris Volpatti, senior vice president hold the property,” he says. “It’s an infill partnership worked with Massaro’s for lead lender Key Bank, the execution project but it’s also clearly suburban. If construction company, Massaro of the project was notable. you look at other urban [TOD] projects, Corporation, but the team was Ashby competes on square footage unable to come to terms that were “All of the parties worked together and amenities, but the floor plans and agreeable. The project went out to a on the issues – there are always sense of home are more suburban. We select group of contractors for bids issues – very well,” she says. knew we were competing for the urban in spring of 2016. From that process, “During construction it’s all about renter in a suburban setting.” understanding the kind of relationship
Among the Ashby’s amenities are Rycon Construction Co. was awarded that’s needed to execute. I think common area lounges, a large the contract to build the apartments. SunCap did that very well.” community building and swimming Including all the site work, the “Rycon did a fantastic job of getting pool that has an outdoor kitchen and construction took about two years the project done on schedule and plenty of seating. The fitness center is to complete, with the first building on budget. It’s a 6.4 acre site for 300 larger than average and has upgraded delivered to rent at the end of 2017. equipment, and an on-demand apartment units. It wasn’t an easy studio that allows residents to call up Pope recalls a smooth construction construction process,” says Lutz. video classes. There is a dog park. process, noting that Dawson had Volpatti lives near the Ashby and said The Ashby’s location is an additional to learn quickly about Pittsburgh’s she had concerns about the noise that amenity, as residents have South Hills interesting topography, geology and the trains would produce for residents Village next door, and Giant Eagle, weather. The PAT parking garage has a living closest to the tracks. She recently Whole Foods, Trader Joe’s, and The 20-foot deep basement level, meaning visited the apartments and reports Fresh Market within one mile’s drive of Rycon had to take care in its excavation that the windows chosen for the units the complex. and foundations. There were some were so well-insulated that she didn’t pyritic soils, which was new to Dawson, notice the sound from two different Of course, the proximity to the light but normal for a Pittsburgh-based light rail cars that passed by. She says rail station and parking garage are construction team. The site of the that a visit to the property also allayed built-in amenities. Pope says that buildings was previously a parking lot the first year’s renters haven’t been any concerns about the demand for
28 DEVELOPING PITTSBURGH | Fall 2018 apartments located by a transit station. “We’re excited to be part of the project say about the project team but called in Pittsburgh. We’re happy to help out the public partner for special praise. “When I drove by there every day I deliver a transit-oriented development wondered who would want to live on for the Port Authority. They have “The Port Authority was fantastic in top of a garage,” Volpatti asks. “Once struggled to get one done so we’re putting this together. They helped you’re inside it’s like an oasis. The happy to have delivered,” Pope put together a ground lease that common rooms and amenities are just concludes. “I was up in Pittsburgh was financeable,” he says. “It’s a big beautiful.” recently looking for our next deal. organization but they were very We think there’s a lot of opportunity responsive. We talked to the Port The lease-up of the Ashby at South Hills for apartments in a number of Authority once or twice per week Village Station thus far validates the neighborhoods.” during construction. We’re adjacent to design and care taken to build a high- their garage so there is a lot of ongoing quality property. For Bailey Pope, this SunCap’s Lutz also lives near the dialogue about maintenance issues for first foray into Pittsburgh produced a project, on land that has been in his the Ashby and the garage that have to project that was successful for Dawson family since the 1800s. He jokes that be coordinated. They are responsive Company. He says the pleasure that being a Bethel Park neighbor made in a way that I never expected from a the other partners – SunCap, Massaro him a first responder for a lot of the huge public authority.” DP Properties and the Port Authority project’s issues but he’s excited to see – have with the project adds to the the project working so well for the satisfaction with the property. community. Lutz has good things to
DEVELOPMENT TEAM
Massaro Dawson Group...... Co-Developer
SunCap Property Group...... Co-Developer
Key Bank...... Lead Lender
LGA Partners...... Master Planner
Desmone Architects...... Architect of Record
Langan Engineers...... Civil Engineer
LaQuatra Bonci Associates...... Landscape Architect
Rycon Construction Co...... General Contractor
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ariffs and inflation. Nine years Private personal investment and expect continued economic growth into a steady, if unspectacular, residential fixed investment were the over the next 12 months, with most T economic expansion, two main drags on GDP. panelists anticipating inflation-adjusted significant threats to continued growth gross domestic product— real GDP have emerged. As of summer 2018, Economists dissecting the report found growth—to exceed two percent. Labor neither the impacts of tariffs with U.S. concern in the fact that increases in market conditions are tight, with skilled trading partners nor the steady rise of private individual investing and savings labor shortages driving firms to raise prices present an imminent danger to appear to be tied to the short-term pay, increase training, and consider the economy (in fact, most forecasts for impact of the tax changes and were additional automation.” growth are robust into the fall.) But, for propped up by increases in personal the first time since the financial crisis, credit at higher rates. The tax act has Among the key responses from the 98 there are trends that could prove to slow incentives for continued business NABE member panelists were that 58 growth and make commercial real estate investment, adding to hopes that percent reported rising sales, while only less desirable. According to most of the the momentum from the second eight percent reported falling sales. The data and sentiment on the economy, July survey was the fourth consecutive however, conditions are on the upswing. quarter that the share of panelists “These employment reporting higher sales had increased. Those looking at the current state of NABE creates a Net Rising Index – the the economy were encouraged by the trends have been percentage of panelists reporting rising Commerce Department’s first estimate sales minus the percentage reporting of gross domestic product (GDP) for good for Pittsburgh’s falling sales – that came in at 50 in April, May and June. July, the highest in four years. Some commercial real 65 percent of panelists report that The July 27 estimate of second quarter estate market their firms are not adjusting hiring and GDP growth precisely met economists’ investment plans due to the 2017 Tax expectations of 4.1 percent. The fundamentals, helping Cuts and Jobs Act, and 67 percent Commerce Department also revised its reported that the more aggressive trade first quarter numbers up to 2.2 percent. to keep retailers policies of the Trump Administration Many narratives about the second were having no impact on hiring, quarter GDP numbers highlighted the healthy, office investment, and pricing. concerns about the sustainability of buildings fuller, and That percentage decreased to 37 the expansion or nit-picked the details percent of respondents from goods- to find components of GDP that were industrial demand high.“ producing firms. less than healthy. The reality is that 4.1 percent quarter-to-quarter growth At the root of the soaring optimism means that the economy was healthy quarter will carry into the third quarter. about the economy are the lower from April through June. In fact, Forecasts for the full year were tax rates and loosening regulatory without an unusual increase in inflation upped to the 2.8 to 3.0 percent range, environment. While the former has and unexpected decline in inventories although those forecasts also anticipate been shown to have had a negligible – a result of preemptive response to falling GDP growth rates as the impact on job creation, the latter has threatened tariffs – the growth in GDP year unfolds. provided the certainty that businesses would have been significantly higher. seem to have needed for expansion. What pessimism exists about future U.S. employers have quickened the Business investment was by far the GDP comes from the expectation of pace of hiring in 2018, averaging headline of the report. Spurred by tax declining exports due to trade disputes 206,000 new jobs per month, reform and growing confidence in the and tariffs, and the personal balance compared to 173,000 per month in near-term regulatory environment, sheets of US consumers. 2017. That surge in job creation has businesses unleashed their pushed unemployment down to four pocketbooks, spending 7.3 percent The National Association of Business percent or less and has encouraged more in the second quarter. This Economists’ (NABE) July Business a significant share of those who overshadowed a four percent jump in Conditions Survey found that U.S. were marginally employed or no consumer spending and a 3.5 percent corporations were as bullish on the longer looking for work to rejoin increase in government spending, economy as at any time since January the workforce. Through July, more either of which would have led the 2014. NABE Business Conditions Survey positions remained unfilled than there story of growth in another period. Chair Sara Rutledge, an independent were applicants for the positions. Manufacturers and farmers pushed real estate economist and data to hike sales to China ahead of tariffs, science research fellow at StratoDem The same has been true for the which boosted exports. Analytics, noted that, “All panelists regional economy, which has begun to
www.developingpittsburgh.com 31 desired effect on the occurred in products and materials European Union. – like steel and aluminum – that will Of greater concern is be affected by tariffs; however, some the trade dispute of the other spiking materials – like with China. fuel, drywall and lumber – are not impacted by tariffs. Pent-up price At midnight on July 6, pressure, opportunities for higher the U.S. implemented profits, and higher demand than supply 25 percent tariffs on are influencing the inflationary trend in the first of $50 billion products not involved in trade disputes. in Chinese goods. The actions drew June’s inflation report also saw the an immediate and Consumer Price Index (CPI) rise to 2.9 equivalent response percent. The rise was exacerbated by from the Chinese. higher energy prices, but core CPI also With threats of tariffs rose by 2.3 percent. Core CPI is meant on an additional $200 to gauge inflation exclusive of the more Growth in GDP during the second quarter of 2018 boosted confi- billion (and ultimately volatile energy and food categories, but dence that the U.S. economy may be cycling up to growth in ex- $500 billion) in consumers do not get to avoid paying cess of three percent again. Chinese goods, for these more volatile items and June’s the administration inflation overall outstripped wage see monthly gains in employment of has signaled a growth by 0.2 points. That’s a trend that at least 10,000 jobs for more than one willingness to engage in a trade war cannot continue if an economy driven year. Although the rate of employment with exemptions for industries that are by consumer spending is to grow. growth remains modest – coming based in states that supported Donald Should CPI continue to trend ahead in between 1.0 and 1.4 percent most Trump’s election and Republican of wage growth, pressure will increase months – there are similarly more Congressional candidates. There will to raise wages faster. In a tight labor openings than applicants in most be a number of industries and goods market, such pressure could further industries in Western PA. It’s worth where exemptions won’t be possible accelerate wage inflation. noting that the job gains are net of or desirable politically, and prices will the growing pace of retirements go up significantly if the tariffs remain A related consequence of higher- among Pittsburgh Baby Boomers. This in place for long. This is especially true than-expected inflation will be a more demographic trend has helped push for the construction industry. For U.S. aggressive response by the Federal unemployment in the seven-county consumers and businesses, a Reserve Bank on interest rates. In an metropolitan area down to 4.1 percent. Chinese trade war will accelerate the environment of gradually increasing inflationary pressures already working rates, hikes that are meant to tamp These employment trends have been in the market. down inflation might also tamp down good for Pittsburgh’s commercial real development. Rates that rose to levels estate market fundamentals, helping to The prospect of tariffs was part of the above those of the mid-2000s would keep retailers healthy, office buildings justification for a dramatic jump in also create stress on renewing lines of fuller, and industrial demand high. producer prices for construction in May credit and maturing commercial loans, and June. A Notwithstanding the upbeat news, measure of all the trend for inflation and the potential the inputs into disruption that tariffs represent for construction, U.S. trade present downside risks to except labor, the economy. This is particularly true the Producer because of the downstream influence Price Index (PPI) of rising inflation on interest rates for construction and consumption. leaped 9.6 percent year- The tariffs threatened by Donald Trump over-year in have had little time to be measured, May and 8.1 especially since the president has percent in June. walked back a number of the tariffs in PPI overall rose the face of political pressure. There is 3.4 percent also evidence that tariffs threatened year-over-year. on long-time U.S. allies and trading Some of the partners may have been meant as an biggest price opening in an ongoing negotiation. increases This tactic, if intentional, has had the
32 DEVELOPING PITTSBURGH | Fall 2018 rising. The concern is that spending will begin to decline for this majority of workers in the coming quarters. An unexpected shock, such as higher gas prices or inflation, will exaggerate the problem.
As the year bends towards mid-term elections, the likelihood is that elected leaders and the Long-term forecasts for the U.S. economy ignore recent spikes in GDP and inflation. Trump Administration which in turn would make pro forma Those earning in the top 40 percent will work to limit the forecasts unworkable. An inflationary have not reduced spending but have chances of an unexpected shock. cycle would be good for property increased savings, while the savings By backing off trade confrontations prices, but not much else. rate of the rest of US consumers has and allowing the momentum of fallen to 2005 levels. strong consumer and business More rapid inflation will add to growing confidence to pull the economy concerns about the balance sheet of This increased spending has come along, the White House could take the middle-class and lower middle- from greater access to credit rather full advantage of the tail winds of a class worker. Recent data by Oxford than increased spending power from growing economy. The interrelated Economics shows that consumer income. With the recent rise in gasoline consequences of accelerated inflation spending since mid-2016 has been prices, in fact, most lower-income should be sufficient concern for the driven by consumers in the lowest 60 earners have seen take-home pay administration to let a winning percentile of earners, a significant shift decline. Delinquency rates in credit hand ride. DP from the earlier years of the expansion. card and automobile loans are
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ompeting factors have allowed of the metro area resident continues Duquesne University, and Robert Morris the office market in Pittsburgh to to decrease as the education level of University – are the driving forces C stay stable and have prevented its residents rises. The labor force has behind a deep, and ever growing, it from moving to more favorable shrunk, as 16,100 are no longer working talent pool. Carnegie Mellon University conditions. On one side, we have or attempting to find work. The largest retains national notoriety in the areas seen unemployment in the area drop increase in work is in the construction of robotics, computer science, and to 3.6 percent (20 basis points below industry, which outpaced everyone at artificial intelligence. the current national average) and the five percent growth. With commercial conversion of office buildings into building in a boom phase, construction While the city is still awaiting Amazon’s residential dwellings, both of which companies added 2,700 workers, decision regarding HQ2, making the should increase demand. On the boosting total employment in the area short list can have its own benefits. If competing supply side, the market has to 61,600. Amazon ultimately chooses another not created the number of new jobs city to call its second home, it should anticipated. Coupled with the continued Google, Uber, Argo AI, and Amazon not be overlooked that Pittsburgh has floor plate optimization and increased continue to show interest in already put a preferential treatment co-working space, overall office vacancy expanding their presence in the Steel plan in place for a larger employer. rate continues to hover near 14 percent. City. Amazon, regardless of HQ2 Several larger opportunistic employers announcement, is expanding its may look to capitalize on the void left Economic Overview existing office by 22,000 square feet in cities that do not ultimately win the and adding 125 new tech jobs. With Amazon crown. Although Pittsburgh has not yet a total of a $2.7 billion price tag, eight reached its anticipated growth, new hospitals are close to breaking Sales investment in the area continues to ground or currently under construction. climb. Anchored by Carnegie Mellon The $6 billion Shell plant is expected to In sales, we have seen the following University, health-care, technology, be completed in 2021. since the beginning of March: finance, and tourism, the area continues to add jobs across industries. Looking Ahead The 155,000 square foot 420 Blvd Over the past year, Pittsburgh added of the Allies is being sold to the URA approximately 11,700 jobs and wages Pittsburgh stands on the precipice of for $27.5 million with an anticipated rose by four percent year over year. turning into an economic powerhouse. renovation cost of $12 million. While population metrics show the World class universities located in the city losing residents, the average age area - The University of Pittsburgh,
www.developingpittsburgh.com 35 We continue to see the cannibalization 319 Third Avenue, which have been Leasing of class B and C office space being converted from vacant office to redeveloped into residential dwellings. residential establishments. As far as trends, Pittsburgh is seeing The Commonwealth building at 316 a migration from the suburbs back Fourth Avenue in downtown Pittsburgh For the area we are seeing to the city. Currently, Bombardier is is reported to be under contract with capitalization rates between 7.6 percent establishing a new 90,000 square foot Connecticut based JCS Capital LLC. and 9.0 percent, while price per square office in the strip at One Waterfront The plan calls for conversion of the foot numbers are coming in near Place, while it markets its existing former office to a 150-unit apartment around $60/square foot for vacant 176,485 square foot facility at 1501 building. The Commonwealth space and $148/square foot for a Lebanon Church Road. And, Philips would join other office buildings on stabilized asset. confirmed it was taking 200,000 square the block, 306 Fourth Avenue and feet in a new office building coming to
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36 DEVELOPING PITTSBURGH | Fall 2018 “The next few quarters could define the Pittsburgh office market for years to come. The addition of large employers, coupled with expansion of the technology industry, could prove to be a juggernaut for office needs.” VALUED Bakery Square. Approximately 13 percent of all office space taken the in the city since 2015 is from companies RELATIONSHIPS moving from the suburbs back into the city.
Preleasing of new assets is also strong. Approximately ... built on our commitment 750,000 square feet of office is currently under construction, with available information indicating that 41 percent of the to client service. space being preleased. One of the most notable projects is 3 Crossings, at 131,000 square feet. 50,000 square feet has been preleased to Argo AI, showing the continued expansion of the self-driving car industry in Pittsburgh. • Construction Across the river, the German software company SAP will be • Corporate & Business Law housed in the 172,000 square foot SAP center, which broke ground this spring. Walnut Capital has plans for a nine story, • Creditors’ Rights & Bankruptcy 328,000 square foot addition to Bakery • Employee Benefits Square, despite some setbacks in the permitting process. • Employment Law In leasing, vacancy in trophy assets and class A space is historically low, while class B spaces continues to see • Energy, Utilities & Mineral Rights difficulty in filling vacancies. In CBD, Class A space is • Immigration approaching $30 a square foot with vacancy rates moving toward eight percent. While Class B space is boasting • Insurance Coverage a vacancy rate over 20 percent and recent rent rates • Intellectual Property often being seen between $12 and $16 per square foot. Co-working space is now estimated to account for over • International Law 400,000 square feet of office space in the area. The availability of co-working space is likely to put even more • Litigation & Dispute Resolution pressure on Class B space as it presents itself as a viable • Private Clients alternative to budget conscience companies. • Real Estate & Lending Closing • Sustainable Development The next few quarters could define the Pittsburgh office market for years to come. The addition of large employers, coupled with expansion of the technology industry, could prove to be a juggernaut for office needs. However, if the area is unsuccessful in adding to its payroll, we may see the delivery of new assets and workplace efficiency cause the market to soften, especially in the Class B asset range. DP
Bryan J. McCann Advisor Henry W. Oliver Building SVN | Three Rivers Commercial Advisors 309 Smithfield St. Ste. 501 Pittsburgh, PA 535 Smithfield Street, Suite 1300 15222 Pittsburgh, PA 15222 (412) 535-8061 412.456.2800 | muslaw.com [email protected]
www.developingpittsburgh.com 37 We deliver
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www.mascaroconstruction.com INDUSTRIAL MARKET UPDATE
he manufacturing sector shows construction starts signs of stabilization for the year-to-date lag T first time in many years in Q2 those of the same 2018. Productivity enhancements period 2017, several and substantial capital investments new developments helped drive growth within the sector were announced. up 2 percent over the same period Among them, the 2017. According to the Allegheny Elmhurst Group Conference’s Business Investment has proposed Scorecard, manufacturing and advanced a $25.5-million, manufacturing were second only to 121,800-square- information technology and robotics in foot flex/office capital investment and job creation in building for the 2017, posting $165 million in investments final brownfield and 1,335 new jobs. Watt Fuel Cell parcel at Pittsburgh Corporation, based in Mount Pleasant, Technology Park Westmoreland County, was the top in the Oakland mezzanine level, now occupying fundraiser in Q2 2018 with $10.7 million submarket. The flex/office model has 74,000 square feet. Additionally, Al. in investments. Pittsburgh posted one of proven successful for a number of Neyer, LLC plans to construct two its lowest unemployment rates in recent developers in the region. The Regional single-story warehouses at Clinton history in Q2 2018 at just 4.1 percent, Industrial Development Corporation Commerce Park. Expected to be while adding nearly 13,000 new jobs to has been remediating and developing between 50,000 and 75,000 square the region during the same period. old steel mill sites into hybrid office feet upon completion, these buildings and R&D spaces for a variety of will join two 400,000-square foot fully- Developers Pursue Flex/Office Model tech companies, most recently at its leased distribution centers already on in Response to Tech Tenant Demand Lawrenceville Technology Center in the 10-acre site. the Greater Downtown submarket. With more than 5.2 million square The Tech Forge, which is a mix of Construction Activity Centers on feet (msf) of industrial leasing activity office and high-bay space, just landed Build-to-Suit Projects recorded over the past 24 months, it new-to-the-market Aurora Innovation, was no surprise that net absorption an autonomous vehicle technology New build-to-suit project in Q1 2018 was nearly double that of company as its latest tenant. Aurora announcements dominated the news the same period 2017. Few speculative will occupy 40,000 square feet at the cycle in Q2 2018. Scannell Properties projects remain vacant within the property and joins Caterpillar, who broke ground on a 450,000-square- Pittsburgh region, and though recently expanded into the property’s foot distribution facility at Starpointe Business Park in Washington County for a user rumored to be affiliated with Shell, while Niagara Bottling Company purchased a 42-acre site in Findlay Industrial Park, Parkway West submarket, on which to construct a 460,000-square-foot water bottling and distribution facility. Additionally, Vollmer, a tool-machining company, is building a 29,300-square foot service and distribution facility on a 5.85-acre parcel at RIDC Park West.
On the speculative front, Brooktrout Development broke ground on the first building in its 23-acre Brooktrout Business Park in McKees Rocks, Parkway West. The developer will occupy the first building but intends to build up to 20 additional buildings of approximately 12,000 square feet each. Schreiber Industrial Park in New Kensington, Westmoreland County,
www.developingpittsburgh.com 39 is the latest speculative industrial North Submarkets Post Lowest facility in Jackson’s Pointe to be redevelopment project to launch. The Vacancy Rates in the Region developed by Al. Neyer. 70-acre, 293,000-square foot industrial park was the long-time home of Alcoa’s The North Pittsburgh/Lower Butler Outlook Aluminum Works but has been nearly County submarket was immediately vacant since its closing in 1970. The targeted by the various energy- The rise of the tech industry in the City of New Kensington purchased related companies converging on Pittsburgh market is countering the the park for $8 million in May 2018 the Pittsburgh market in pursuit of decline of the oil and gas sector, and plans to invest $12 million into Marcellus Shale opportunities over particularly within the Greater modernizing the facilities to create an the past several years, dropping the Downtown area. Overall direct advanced manufacturing center. vacancy rate within the submarket to weighted average rental rate for the just over 3.0 percent since 2012. The market rose 23.7 percent year-over-year Warehouse/Distribution Sector warehouse/distribution and flex sectors in 2Q 2018 to $8.77/NNN. Continues to Drive Leasing Activity account for approximately 20 million square feet of North Pittsburgh/Lower The industrial market will continue Pittsburgh remains a strong contender Butler County’s industrial inventory to navigate the volatile energy for regional distribution and last-mile located within 380 buildings. The market, repositioning itself as the operations, a trend confirmed with current vacancy rate for the sector is center for technology and advanced Amazon’s new lease for 70,000 square 3.4 percent with approximately 654,812 manufacturing. Expect leasing, feet at I-79 North Industrial Park in the square feet vacant and available for absorption and rental rates to see Northwest Pittsburgh submarket. The lease and 9,536 square feet available for double-digit improvements over the warehouse/distribution sector consists sublease. Year-to-date net absorption next several quarters as owners and of 87.4 million square feet (msf) of is positive 152,916 square feet with developers respond to the evolving rentable building area. Vacancy within 242,180 square feet of total leasing needs of modern users. DP the sector edged up slightly year-over- activity. Rental rates range from $5.50 year to 5.1 percent over 4.4 percent in to $14.50 for warehouse/distribution Q2 2017. At the close of Q2 2018, there with an average asking rate of $7.31/ were approximately 4.4 msf of vacant NNN, and from $15.00 - $18.00 for and available space. Year-to-date (YTD) flex with an average asking rate of leasing activity for the warehouse/ $16.50/NNN. Average rent has risen distribution market is just over half a a whopping 18.3 percent over 2017 million square feet, down more than 50 though the vacancy rate has remained percent from the first half of 2017. The stagnant at 3.4 percent during the same sector ended the quarter with positive period. net absorption of 284,466 square feet with an average asking rental rate of Aside from Elmhurst’s 60,000-square- $5.71/NNN – up 14.0 percent from the foot speculative flex project at same period 2017. Only 130,000 square 535-536 Thorn Hill Road, which is feet of new warehouse/distribution expected to kick off construction in space has been delivered to the market the second half of 2018, nearly all new YTD with approximately 65,000 square development is focused just north of feet under construction. That being Cranberry Township along the I-79 said, nearly 1 million square feet of North corridor. Smaller, multi-tenant proposed industrial development is spec projects have been announced Jack O’Donoghue, SIOR in the pipeline with potential to begin for Callery Industrial Park in Evans Principal and Executive Vice President construction upon commitment by an City while a variety of potential Cushman & Wakefield | anchor tenant. distribution facilities are awaiting Grant Street Associates, Inc. pre-lease commitment to commence [email protected] construction. Among these is 108 (412) 391-2621 Tomlinson Road, a 220,000-square-foot
40 DEVELOPING PITTSBURGH | Fall 2018 CREW PITTSBURGH'S
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FRANJO CONSTRUCTION CORPORATION 335 EAST 7TH AVENUE HOMESTEAD, PA 15120 WWW.FRANJOCONSTRUCTION.COM “To Build a winning environment CAPITAL MARKET UPDATE with Integrity, Respect and Passion to achieve �lient �a�s�ac�on” FRANJO CONSTRUCTION CORPORATION n a business cycle where fears leverage. CMBS has become more have affected that. I hoped it would about maturing “toxic” commercial competitive compared to agency have grown to absorb more of the Imortgage-backed securities debt on multifamily, and it is the only permanent financing market, but banks have (twice) been overstated and avenue in other sectors to get full- and life insurance companies are underperforming assets have outlasted term interest-only debt at moderate picking up that slack.” the market to become performing assets, leverage, or even a full-leverage the only clouds looming on the loan done. Whether it is fresh memories of the horizon of commercial real estate panic of 2008, regulations or just finance are old-fashioned rising In the current market conditions, the lenders finally learning not to repeat interest rates and caution. abundant liquidity and declining risk mistakes from the past, the capital tolerance of traditional lenders should markets of mid-2018 aren’t typical Come September, the financial crisis make the CMBS market ripe for rapid of late business cycle conditions. will be ten years old. Throughout the growth. Instead, all forecasts for CMBS Instead, banks are looking to lower intervening decade, there have been issuance in 2018 are lower than 2017. loan-to-value leverage. Life insurance echoes of the crisis that have loomed companies are resistant to doing deals over capital markets, the maturation of At $75 billion, the global CMBS market above 70 percent loan-to-value, even loans made in the heady days of 2006 in 2018 would be 25 percent lower at higher spreads. Equity and credit and 2007 that have largely liquidity remain high, as is proven to be non-events. Yet, competition for deals. But, the memories of the panic unlike in 2007 of the fall of 2008 seem to and 2008, investors haunt the capital markets. and lenders are maintaining As the business cycle gets their risk discipline. long in tooth, lenders are getting warier. This is in direct “There is a ton of liquidity. contrast to the behavior If anything, especially in of lenders in 1989, 2000 Pittsburgh, there is a shortage or 2007, when fewer deals of product,” says Mark was an incentive to lower Popovich, senior managing lending standards. In 2018, director and co-head of the more capital is in the market Pittsburgh office of HFF. There than there are projects to is still more capital chasing finance. Banks are reducing too few projects but so far leverage. Higher risk, higher lenders aren’t changing their leverage finance options, like underwriting standards.” commercial-backed mortgage securities (CMBS), are not Senior loan officers reported declining demand across all sec- “We’re seeing banks OFFICE•RETAIL•HOSPITALITY•WAREHOUSE/ attracting projects in the way tors during the first quarter. Source: Wells Fargo, Federal Re- becoming more cautious, INDUSTRIAL•ASSITED LIVING•INTERIOR/ that they did in 2007. serve Bank Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. especially with multi-family and hospitality,” echoes EXTERIOR RENOVATION•MULTI-FAMILY The CMBS market may Jamey Noland, director of be the best barometer for judging than the volume in 2015, and 75 underwriting for PenTrust Real Estate conditions in commercial real estate percent lower than the peak in 2007. Advisory Services. “Office and industrial lending. As has been well chronicled, A more robust CMBS market would are still seen as favorable but banks are CMBS benefitted from the naivete and allow riskier projects to find financing starting to decrease loan-to-value to enthusiasm of the real estate bubble by tapping investors with a higher limit their risk exposure.” of the mid-2000s. Unlike residential tolerance for risk. Those investors may General Contractors mortgage-backed securities, CMBS not be out there in the same numbers “There is a lot of money out there, particularly on the equity side. Equity issuances didn’t hide higher-risk assets as a decade earlier. It seems the F��� ��� ���� �������� ���� � ����� ��������� ���� among the traditional loans of the memory of the financial crisis remains is looking at commercial real estate because of the poorer returns in ��� ���������� ������� �� ��� �������. bubble; in fact, the higher-risk tranches strong among investors. of the CMBS bonds offered higher other investment sectors,” observes returns that were appealing to investors “The disappointing market is CMBS,” Powderly. “That’s a good thing for agrees Bob Powderly, senior vice me as a banker. It creates more Contact: Carl Belli - carl���ran�oconstr�c�on�co� with tolerance for commercial real estate risk. president of investment real estate for competition, but spreads have also �����ran�oconstr�c�on�co� 412-462-4371 First National Bank. “I thought CMBS improved.” CMBS is still the best option for would have returned by this time but borrowers who want to maximize maybe the risk-sharing regulations FRANJO CONSTRUCTION CORPORATION 335 EAST 7TH AVENUE HOMESTEAD, PA 15120 WWW.FRANJOCONSTRUCTION.COM
www.developingpittsburgh.com 43 Powderly likes the fact that leverage reported net looser standards on “Commercial real estate continues to is being reduced, noting that C & I loans, and credit for commercial be the preferred investment vehicle the likelihood of a correction in real estate and GSE-qualified property. for life insurance companies because commercial real estate will get higher of the additional spread that they can over the next couple of years. In part, banks pointed to increasing achieve over corporate bonds.” competition from other lending One indicator of the direction of credit sources – including non-bank entities Another factor adding to the caution trends is the willingness of banks to – as the explanation for maintaining of lenders is higher interest rates. make loans. The Federal Reserve’s first lending standards. This competitive The Federal Reserve Bank has been quarter Senior Loan Officer Opinion response should not be a threat to the incrementally raising its bank-to-bank Survey (SLOOS) was released June 5 current credit climate because loan rates by 200 basis points over the past and its results were consistent with repayment delinquency continues to three years. In 2018, the Fed is expected expectations for lender behavior late in fall across all categories except student to increase the rate four times. The a business cycle. and auto loans, both of which are well actions are a reflection of growing below the delinquency levels seen confidence in the economy and higher One surprise that came from the during the recession. As interest rates rates are giving more breathing room to SLOOS was weaker loan demand. and cyclical delinquency rise as the banks, which had been stuck with rates Loan officers saw demand falling business cycle matures further, credit near zero for almost a decade. across all the categories surveyed standards will tighten and willingness
by at least five percent, with a slight to lend will fall. The first quarter SLOOS While many people think of the Federal decline in commercial and industrial report does not reflect a market in Reserve Bank’s quarterly rate hikes as (C & I) small loans as the only which a credit cycle decline appears the bellwether for where interest rates exception. Demand for credit cards and imminent. are going, the market actually responds multi-family loans fell by almost ten more efficiently to the perceived risk percent; and government-sponsored Life insurance companies have not of lending and the relative return of enterprise (GSE) (Fannie and Freddie) reduced their appetite for commercial risk-adjusted assets. Put more simply, loan demand dropped by 18 percent. real estate, even in the multi-family investors want to get the best return Observers noted that this trend was category. possible for a risk that is within their likely to be reversed in the second tolerance for loss. That’s the reason that quarter, as businesses responded “The life insurance companies are all the 10-year Treasury bill tends somewhat slowly to the Tax Cuts and on pace or slightly ahead of pace to to be a benchmark for commercial Jobs Act in the first quarter. reach their allocations for 2018. There real estate. was a period in the second quarter that The trend in banks’ willingness to was a little slow but that has passed,” “Interest rates have been very stable make loans remained stable, with 9.2 says Daniel Puntil, senior vice president this year,” notes Popovich. “When the percent more senior loan officers at Grandbridge Real Estate Capital, Fed raises short-term rates it gets the responding more willingness than less. who noted that most life insurance headlines but most in our industry are Not surprisingly, relatively few lenders companies have told him that they focused on long-term rates because are taking measures to tighten lending have the ability to exceed their 2018 that’s what is relevant to borrowing in standards. The SLOOS data indicated allocations. At least one lender had told commercial real estate.” that underwriting was tightening in him there was no ceiling to its lending. categories of concern, specifically Popovich points out that the 10-year autos and multi-family loans, but banks Treasury bill has floated between 2.84
44 DEVELOPING PITTSBURGH | Fall 2018 percent and 3.11 percent for the last six months, even though overnight rates have risen three-quarters of a percent. Moreover, he says that other market conditions have leveled out the total cost of capital. Popovich also notes that the 10-year rate was above four percent during the frothy days before the 2008 financial crisis, making today’s “higher” rates a bargain by historical standards.
The forecast for rates largely looks for more of the same. Economists seem to be split on how much influence the Federal Reserve’s tightening will impact borrowing costs. Wells Fargo Securities predicts that the 10-year Treasury bill will drift about 50 basis points higher by the end of 2019. PNC Financial Services Group, on the other hand, expects the yield on the 10-year to rise only to 3.1 percent by 2020, figuring that market conditions will keep long-term rates within shouting distance of today’s interest rate. Morgan Stanley’s Jamie Dimon is an outlier in his prediction of a five percent 10-year yield in 2020.
“The rising tide of interest raises all B&G Breaking Ground Ad:Layout 1 7/2/14 11:58 AM Page 1 rates; however, there is really no direct impact on the U.S. Treasury yield when the Federal Reserve raises short-term rates 25 basis points. The 10-year Treasury won’t immediately go up Real Estate I Construction I Manufacturing 25 basis points in lock-step with the P. 412-227-2500 • F. 412-227-2050 Federal Reserve. However, when the www.BlumlingGusky.com 10-year Treasury goes up 25 or 30 basis points, the lenders do not reduce their spreads accordingly. You don’t get it back.” counsels Puntil.
Rising rates increase the cost of capital and push capitalization rates up. If cap rates were to begin to return to historical norms, the negative impact on commercial real estate transaction and refinancing would be significant. With inflation also growing, concerns about interest rates becoming a problem are real; however, thus far the trend for long-term rates seems Project success. to be holding. It’s what our clients do. Puntil notes that there were a couple of trends emerging that represent It’s what we do. changes in how the borrowers and lenders are looking at the capital markets.
“What is becoming a little more prevalent is the willingness to go long
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term,” notes Puntil. “Lenders are trying • Limiting the application of the to match loans to their investment HVCRE classification by clarifying portfolios. The yield curve is so flat that that loans made to acquire borrowers are looking to make long- existing property with rental term deals. We’re also seeing more income would not be subject to and more life insurance companies higher capital requirements. providing flexible prepayment options. The lenders are structuring step-down • Allowing banks to remove the terms for prepayment so borrowers HVCRE designation prior to the know in advance what the penalty end of the loan. for pre-payment will be, instead of the uncertainty of yield maintenance The provisions adding equity and provisions for prepayment. The lenders limiting the value of land contributed are now seeing the value of recycling as equity in projects were particularly their debt.” damaging in Pittsburgh, where developers more often have legacy There was a significant improvement land assets with much higher market to the regulatory environment for values than cost basis. Rolling the commercial real estate. On May 24, the more onerous HVCRE measures out Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, of the regulations should be a benefit and Consumer Protection Act was to Pittsburgh commercial real estate. signed into law. This reform legislation Relief from regulation comes at a good includes NAIOP-supported provisions time for Pittsburgh, with an economy that ensure there is adequate capital that appears to be on the brink of availability for commercial construction another leg up. financing by revising elements of the current High Volatility Commercial Real “Equity is still flowing into the market. Estate (HVCRE) rules. Among those Two of the largest equity players in provisions to be revised are: the U.S. are looking at projects in Pittsburgh,” says Noland. “Institutional • Allowing commercial borrowers players are taking note of Pittsburgh as to use the appreciated value of an up-and-coming secondary market contributed land, rather than because equity spreads are getting the original cost as under the squeezed in other cities. Pittsburgh has prior rule. been behind the curve over the last five years in terms of population growth and job creation. I think we’re seeing that growth beginning.” DP
46 DEVELOPING PITTSBURGH | Fall 2018 LEGAL/LEGISLATIVE LOOK
New Accounting Standards for Operating Leases to Take Effect in 2018
By Marcy E. Hamilton, Esq. and Laura M. DeGeer, Esq.
n February 2016, the Financial What are the key changes? When will this take effect? Accounting Standards Board (FASB)1 Ireleased accounting standards update Both finance leases and operating For public companies, the standard will ASU 2016-02 in an effort to eliminate the leases, including subleases, are take effect on December 15, 2018. For guesswork involved when calculating governed by ASU 2016-02; however, all other organizations, the standard will a company’s lease obligations. Set to certain leases are excepted, for take effect for fiscal years beginning take effect for some in December 2018, example: (i) leases to explore for use after December 15, 2019, and for the standard is intended to improve of minerals, oil, natural gas, and similar, interim periods within those fiscal financial reporting regarding leasing non-regulative resources, (ii) leases of years beginning after December 15, transactions, thereby providing investors biological assets held by a lessee, (iii) 2020. Early application is permitted with more transparent, comparable leases of inventory, (iv) leases of asset for all organizations. information about lease obligations held under construction, and (v) leases of by companies and other organizations. intangible assets. Under ASU 2016-02, Organizations and companies are a lessee is required to recognize an permitted to transition to the new Who is impacted? asset on its balance sheet and take standard by either full retrospective on a liability for the present value application, or by a cumulative Previously, lessees were not required of its future lease payments. A lease catch-up methodology. to recognize operating leases on their is classified as a finance lease if it balance sheets, meaning companies transfers substantially all the risks and Full retrospective application involves leasing assets from a third party were rewards incidental to ownership of an restating all leases as if they had always not required to show the rent payment underlying asset. Otherwise, the lease is been accounted for under the new obligations for these leases in their classified as an operating lease. standard, with the difference between records. ASU 2016-02 affects all asset and liability at the transition date companies and organizations that lease An asset is typically identified by being changed to retained earnings. assets including real estate, airplanes explicitly specified in a contract but can and manufacturing equipment. By also be identified by being implicitly Under the cumulative catch-up requiring more disclosures related specified at the time the asset is made methodology, all finance leases to leasing transactions, ASU 2016-02 available for use by the customer. continue unchanged, while covered ends what the U.S. Securities and However, it is important to note that operating leases are converted to Exchange Commission and other where a supplier has a substantive right finance leases with initial liability and stakeholders have identified as one of of substitution throughout the period of asset equal to the present value of the the largest forms of “off balance sheet” use, a customer does not have the right remaining rent. accounting. to use an identified asset. A lease for a Prior to the effective date, developers specific, identified parcel or portion of with third-party lease contracts ASU 2016-02 applies to all leases. A a parcel of real property does not give should consult their legal teams for contract is, or contains, a lease if it rise to a lessee’s right of substitution. conveys the right to control the use of advice on amending current and an identified asset for a period of time A lessee can elect not to recognize future lease agreements. DP in exchange for consideration. Control a short-term lease (meaning a lease Marcy E. Hamilton is a partner in Meyer, Un- is conveyed where the lessee has both of less than 12 months); however, kovic & Scott’s Real Estate & Lending group. the right to direct the identified asset’s if a short-term lease is extended for She can be reached at [email protected] or 412-456-2528. Laura M. DeGeer is an use and to obtain substantially all more than 12 months, the lessee must associate in Meyer, Unkovic & Scott’s Real economic benefits from that use. recognize the lease as of the date of Estate & Lending, Corporate & Business Law, the change in circumstance. Employment Law & Employee Benefits, Im- migration, and MUSolutions practice groups. She can be reached at [email protected] or 412-456-2845.
1The FASB is an independent, nonprofit, private-sector entity that establishes financial accounting and reporting standards for entities that follow generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”). More on the FASB can be found at www.fasb.org/facts.
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Pittsburgh’s Multi-Family Market Reloads While Other Cities’ Slow
Edge 1909, the first phase of NRP’s Riverfront development, is seeing brisk lease-up of the first of its 364 units on the market. A second phase of 442 units was recently approved by Pittsburgh Planning Commission.
on’t count the apartment boom in a row, permits for multi-family in bubble created many more renters out just yet. Of all the segments Pittsburgh should top 2,000 units. The out of homeowners, sending demand Din the construction market, economy of Western PA, and sluggish for apartments higher. That growing multi-family has proven to be the new home construction, are buoying demand, and the lending shakeout most resilient in this business cycle. demand for multi-family, which that followed the financial crisis, boomed across the country when the made multi-family virtually the only Two years after economists predicted housing market went bust. property type that developers could a slowdown in the market, and three get financed at the beginning of the years after lenders were saying they The Great Recession started after a decade. And the icing on the cake was were tapping the brakes on apartments, housing bubble of epic proportions. that the emerging younger generation the multi-family sector in the U.S. has The particulars of the credit crisis favored renting over owning for a leveled off. that followed set up the apartment variety of reasons. market for a boom cycle. First, Through June 30, multi-family easy credit in the Clinton and Bush Apartments have historically been construction is off steeply in administrations drove demand for a category that has been subject Pittsburgh. The decline is likely to home ownership, keeping demand to overbuilding and retrenching. be a temporary one, as a handful of for new apartments artificially low and Often driven by downturns in larger developments are expected to discouraging development. Second, the economy, developers built begin by year’s end. For the sixth year the deleveraging that followed the apartments throughout the 1950s
www.developingpittsburgh.com 49 A Certified DB/DBE/WBE Surveying for Real Estate & Site Development and 1960s to accommodate the rapid growth of cities and the Construction Management & Inspection western U.S. Deregulation of savings and loans in the 1980s created a bubble in apartments, from which the construction market still hasn’t 100 Ryan Court, Suite 9 recovered. In fact, one of the myths Pittsburgh, PA 15205 of the current boom is that recent volumes are historic highs. The data says otherwise. 412-276-2027 Since 1964, construction of residential structures with five or more units www.rig-consulting.com has peaked during cycles as high as 906,000 units (1972), 462,000 units (1978), and 576,000 units (1985). When the latter cycle cratered with the S & L crisis, apartment construction fell to 137,900 units in 1991 and never reached the historic average of 359,000 units again until 2015. That year saw the peak of the current boom top out at 385,000 units. Prior to 2015, there were only seven years in which at least 300,000 units of multi-family were started. In many ways, the current growth cycle is more of a reversion to the mean than a response to future demand. In that light, the traditional assumptions about demand may not hold.
Pittsburgh is a market that has seen a similar pattern of recent construction but the comparison to historic norms is quite different. Except for a flurry of activity in the late 1990s – most of which was driven by Nationwide Insurance as an investor – the Pittsburgh market has been without new construction for decades. Since 2000, when there were 1,300 multi- family units started, there was only one other year when at least 1,000 units started construction until 2013. The average number of units started in those 14 years was 731. The average from 2013 to 2018 was 2,451 units.
According to Lynn DeLorenzo, principal with TARQUINCoRE LLC, the steady drumbeat of good news has made Pittsburgh interesting to out-of-town investors and developers, and the success stories of the early 2010s have brought them back for another run. Pittsburgh presents a problem for those looking at the market from outside. Because of the bifurcation of the economy and the demographics between the old and the new Pittsburgh, the blended data is not very compelling. You have to dig below the surface – get boots on the ground – to understand what
50 DEVELOPING PITTSBURGH | Fall 2018 what is indisputable is the character of the population. Within the city proper, residents are growing decidedly younger. Sufficient young people are moving into the city to offset the aging population. While the median age of an Allegheny County resident has fallen slightly over the past five years – and the median age of a Pennsylvanian continued to increase – the median age of a Pittsburgh city resident plunged to 32 years old. Attracted by lots of jobs in technology, financial New apartment construction in Pittsburgh has a competitive advantage in a market where the average age of services, healthcare and a unit is nearly 70 years old. energy, the younger residents of the city are works in the market. sale continues to shrink and a severe looking for newer, cooler places to shortage of new construction lots is live, and they have the paychecks to “We had a glitch about our population limiting new home construction. In support the rent in new construction. that was very confusing to people. We fact, the average number of single- had a lot of national focus for several family homes built each year since the “The people CMU and Pitt are bringing reasons and it’s very hard to look financial crisis is 1,926; in the seven in are making great salaries and many at greater Pittsburgh as a market in years prior, the average was 3,017. The of them don’t want to own. If you the way you might other cities,” says new home construction in 2017 was have the wherewithal to spend $2.25 DeLorenzo. “Pittsburgh is different actually lower than in 2016, although or $2.50 per square foot, do you want because the population growth is construction is up 4.5 percent through to be in an apartment where you in the pockets that are driving the the first six month of this year. walk across the street to your parking market. Now the population is starting garage or would you rather live where to come back, and people A comparison of the number of jobs you walked directly from your parking are enamored with what’s happening in metro Pittsburgh in June 2016 space in the garage into the door here on the technology and compared to June 2018 reveals that that led to your apartment,” asks Ron innovation side.” 24,500 more people work in the Tarquinio, DeLorenzo’s partner at region. With household formation TARQUINCoRE. “Part of the success Census Bureau data tends to confirm historically tracking jobs one-to-one, that the national developers have had the bias about Pittsburgh. The region’s that means increased demand for is based upon their knowledge of population is shrinking and growing 24,500 households, more or less, amenities in demand in other parts of older. Getting into the weeds reveals a since June 2016. During that same the country because of the depth of different conclusion. Residents of the 24 months, there were 4,022 new their portfolios.” metropolitan area are getting better single-family detached homes, 1,851 educated (more people with college townhouses and 4,788 units of A look at the makeup of the degrees, fewer with high school or apartments started. That leaves a apartment stock in metro Pittsburgh less) and better compensated (median delta of almost 14,000 new provides an interesting clue as to why household income is growing twice households formed without new the new developments have been as fast as the U.S. rate). We’re getting construction supply. resistant to occupancy slumps, even older in metro Pittsburgh but the as new product enters the market. median age of the seven-county area, Arguments about migration patterns, The average age of the apartment 43.1 years, is more than ten years job creation and demographics stock in Pittsburgh is just under 70 older than the median resident of may not conclude that there is an years. That’s about the same as the City of Pittsburgh. Likewise, while increasing wave of demand to meet Detroit, Kansas City and Cleveland, the seven-county MSA has seen a 0.7 another supply wave; however, on the all Midwestern cities of similar size. percent decline since 2010, ground, there is a leasing advantage Compared to Midwestern tech hubs, the population of the city proper has that may justify the new construction: however, Pittsburgh’s apartment stock grown. new beats old. is ancient. The average apartment age in Seattle is 54 years old. In There is another structural metric Regardless of where you might stand Austin, the average multi-family unit supporting multi-family development: on the issue of whether Pittsburgh’s is 34 years old; in Charlotte, it’s 32. the low inventory of homes to buy. population is growing sufficiently to People competing for tech jobs in The inventory of existing homes for support more apartment construction, comparable Midwestern cities are
www.developingpittsburgh.com 51 looking to rent the same kinds of places in any of those towns.
In other words, newcomers to Pittsburgh aren’t choosing new apartments in East Liberty or the Strip District over older apartments in those neighborhoods. They are choosing new apartments in one location over new apartments in another.
One potential problem facing the Pittsburgh market is the availability of sites in those locations. Land costs in desirable neighborhoods are no longer undervalued. Vacant property in hot locations – like the Baum/Liberty corridor in Shadyside – has been developed. One of the developers that helped drive the urban Pittsburgh apartment boom in recent years is responding to the changing This graphic from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s May 2018 Fourth District Metromix report dynamics of Pittsburgh’s market by shows that Pittsburgh’s demographics are growing more favorable than those of the U.S at large. developing other property types. as well,” says Todd Reidbord, president more enticing than developing more “We’re extremely confident about the of Walnut Capital. multi-family, particularly in light of the performance of the apartments that heightened interest from out-of-town we’ve developed – particularly Bakery Walnut Capital’s current projects apartment developers and investors. Living and The Foundry – but we think in development are mostly office the market is getting a little picked- buildings in Oakland, a sub-market “I think the apartment market still has over. The opportunities for new with almost no vacant office space. room for growth,” he says. “We’re not [apartments] aren’t in locations we like Reidbord says that opportunity is sellers. We’re having more success
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52 DEVELOPING PITTSBURGH | Fall 2018 with our apartments than ever but we but almost 40 percent of the units The fundamentals of the Pittsburgh like the opportunity for growth in the have been reserved. That includes multi-family market remain solid. Oakland office market more.” three of the four three-bedroom units Occupancy has rebounded after some that have asking prices above softness in the market in the winter. Other developers leery of timing $1 million. Rent growth has slowed but rates the business cycle or wondering are still trending upward; and even how much more rents can rise in Pittsburgh isn’t a market that offers a though long-time Pittsburgh residents Pittsburgh have turned to building deep bench of condos for sale, so it’s may shake their heads in wonder at condominiums, a product that has difficult to deduce trends with so few how high rents have jumped since seen limited new supply over the past transactions. The thinking behind the 2010, the reality is that the average decade. Philadelphia-based Solara pivot to multi-family for sale is sound. two-bedroom apartment in Pittsburgh Ventures has had great success over Smaller condominiums sell for a rents for $250 less per month than the past decade with small-scale price that is competitive with a starter the national average. The in-migrating adaptive re-use projects in the Strip home, assuming you can find those. worker is still more likely than not to and Cultural District, but rarely have Condominiums are in demand from find Pittsburgh’s cost of renting to be more than 50 units been available at the growing empty-nester cohort too. lower than their previous location. any time during that period. Now, in These are cash buyers. Renters who addition to Solara’s partners, there are have been paying at the upper ranges Developers appear to think that the several developers bringing projects of the average rent spectrum, say demand for apartments is sustainable into the market to test the appeal of $1,500 to $1,800 per month, can find for the coming years. With what is the lifestyle of urban multi-family living options to buy that will fit into that in the pipeline, construction of five for buyers. same range for a mortgage payment. or six new properties should start in And the maintenance-free lifestyle each of the coming two years. That’s The highest-profile of these new and urban amenities remain the same, enough to keep the new construction projects may be Lumiere, an 86-unit regardless of whether you’re renting volume around 2,000 units through condo being developed by Millcraft or owning. Drop by the Cultural 2020. The threat of a wave of Investments at 350 Oliver Avenue District or East Liberty restaurants and Millennial renters becoming buyers at the site of the former Saks Fifth bars on a weeknight and you’ll see no is real, but the lack of sale inventory Avenue. Construction on the shortage of people who would fit the means the wave will remain pent up condominium is just getting underway profile of a condo buyer. for a while longer. That’s good news (the structure will sit atop the recently- for the multi-family market. DP completed parking garage at the site),
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VOICES
Assuming that funding was not an issue, what transit project or connection do you feel would be most beneficial to the Pittsburgh region?
John C. Mascaro Hon. Thomas W. Christina Cassotis Chairman Wolf CEO Mascaro Governor Allegheny County Construction Co. Commonwealth Airport Authority of Pennsylvania ”I believe the first “The Terminal thing needed “Pennsylvania Modernization for development has the fifth Program at is roads. You largest state- Pittsburgh can’t have maintained road International development of system and the Airport to update any consequence without the proper third largest state maintained bridge and consolidate Landside operations infrastructure. Development follows system of bridges in the nation. The into a single new terminal is a huge infrastructure and population growth commonwealth’s system is far larger opportunity to continue advancing follows development. than any of our surrounding states and, our region. in fact, is comparable in size to the state- So what does Pittsburgh need? First is maintained road systems of New York, Airport facilities, which are now 26 years a connection between the airport and New Jersey and all of the New England old, must be transformed to reflect Downtown. We also need a connection states combined, so I am always looking current usage and to meet the travel between Downtown and the universities. for creative ways to build upon the travel challenges of tomorrow. The new We need to connect the Arena site all the improvements my administration has terminal must also be flexible enough way to Hazelwood Green, including the made by restoring 1,930 bridges and to accommodate rapidly-changing Pittsburgh Technology Center on Second improving more than 20,400 miles of technological systems. Avenue, with Pitt, Carnegie Mellon, roadways statewide. Chatham, and Carlow in between. Young Our current facility was built for a talent wants to be connected to the While financial challenges remain, different reality - an airline structure that airport, to where the activity is. That takes Pittsburgh and many other areas would does not exist in Pittsburgh anymore investment that is forward-thinking. substantially benefit from building a more and isn’t coming back. However, new robust commuter rail service, including tech investment and major construction Orlando FL provides a good example of improving connectivity between Western projects including the Shell cracker plant what leadership and vision can bring to a Pennsylvania and communities to its east. are redefining the future of this region. region. Over the past 20 years, two major This would be beneficial for the long-term freeways have been built to relieve the economic competitiveness of the city by The team at Pittsburgh International traffic from an overcrowded Interstate creating viable transportation alternatives. Airport will continue working with our 4. Route 417 has been expanded three Increased opportunities for reliable modes community partners to drive innovation times since it was constructed. The other of transportation would help by increasing that supports a seamless, modern beltway, Route 528, has been improved opportunities for employment, expanding travel experience for all, a best-in-class eight times since then! Those roads travel options for students looking for international airport and the region’s were surrounded by empty fields when educational opportunities, and increasing evolving role as a world leader. they were built. Now there are thousands options to explore Pennsylvania’s Regardless of any particular project, it’s of homes.” treasured tourism destinations, all of that kind of thinking that will be most which will garner increased economic beneficial to Pittsburgh.” impacts for every industry, community, and Pennsylvania resident for years to come.”
www.developingpittsburgh.com 55 Stefani Pashman Our major commuting routes are Morgan K. CEO also our most congested routes, and O’Brien Allegheny that will only worsen with increased CEO Conference on development unless we provide a real Peoples Gas Co. Community alternative. It’s been a long time since Development we, as a region, have put together a “There are multiple plan to improve connections – north, regional transit “To stay south, east, and west – that would let us opportunities that competitive and have a well-coordinated, high-quality would deliver attractive to the regional transit system. It’s time to have different benefits. next generation that conversation.” The BRT project of residents and is at the top of businesses, we need to think about everyone’s list. investing in priority transit corridors A delineated transportation corridor that will connect us across the region. between Downtown Pittsburgh and the Greater Pittsburgh International Airport would also be highly beneficial. This is especially true because of the expected growth both in Pennsylvania and Ohio west of the airport due to the Shell Cracker Plant and the economic development that will be created there. The Pittsburgh commuter rail system has been essential in linking many of our southern communities with our Downtown area. A continuation of this system beyond Pittsburgh’s North Shore and into northern Allegheny and other northern counties would essentially transverse the region. This would benefit commuters traveling to the Downtown area, but also give workers the ability to be employed across the entire area. This is especially true for people who live in distressed areas, giving them greater access to jobs.”
Jeremy Leventhal Managing Partner Faros Properties
“I think most people would say that Oakland needs a train service Maiello lays The legal groundwork connecting to Downtown and For ConsTruCTion Business. I think South Side is somewhat isolated and has bad traffic problems. In a perfect world, Pittsburgh would have a train system that connected the airport to Downtown and then went through to the east end of town, to Shadyside and East Liberty. A Firm Commitment to You The existing train system should be continued north, out to the suburbs. 412.242.4400 - mbm-law.net The ideal transit system would criss-cross Pittsburgh.”
56 DEVELOPING PITTSBURGH | Fall 2018 Audrey Russo President & CEO Pittsburgh Technology Council
“If I really were going to try to prepare Pittsburgh for the next generation, then we need to think about energy, urban density, point to point mobility and autonomy. Gaining access to our 90 neighborhoods, tethering them via contiguous access would be an incredible pivot for Pittsburgh. The valleys, the hills, the twists and turns, which create the glorious terrain, have resulted in a difficult strategy for transit. I am really excited about the new leadership at the Port Authority in Pittsburgh. She is tackling some of the basic barriers and thinking through critical factors which effect access.
The opportunities to create the a living mobility lab has been pioneered at Carnegie Mellon (autonomous vehicles, Mobility 21, Traffic 21 and Tech for Safe & Efficient transit) places the region as a premiere concentrator for people solving transportation problems completely. Creating continuous and iterative experiments should be inherent for us. We are a land of inventors. The roads, the rivers and our skies (drones) are our venues for safe movement. An aging workforce paired with a generation of people who care less and less about automobile ownership and care more about access, requires us to pivot.
My prediction is that the combination of drone deliveries, moon shots, river transport and smaller autonomous busses paired with point to point solutions that can be modulated based upon demand is the Pittsburgh of tomorrow. There will no longer be “traffic”. Instead we will be able to navigate our city, no matter our abilities and schedules. Parking garages will be razed. Cars in our city will be restricted and parks will proliferate, paired with the growth of restaurants and music. The flow from one neighborhood to another will allow the growth of newer housing where once parking garages were. After all, I want to get on a boat, and then hop on a bus which then takes me to the Hyperloop where I can have dinner in Columbus and return that night back to Pittsburgh.”
www.developingpittsburgh.com 57 News from the Counties
LA RENCE
NEW CASTLE
BUTLER
BUTLER
KITTANNING BEAVER ARMSTRONG
BEAVER INDIANA
INDIANA
ALLEGHENY
PITTSBURGH