Is Enforced Displace- ment the New Reality in ?

Radwan Ziadeh

April 28, 2017 The situation in Syria continues to defy an after the deal between the United States, under observer’s understanding of reality. Indeed, no the Obama Administration, and Russia in 2013. Syrian in 2011 imagined that the regime of Nevertheless, the government brazenly used Bashar al-Asad would use fighter jets like Sarin gas again in April 2017, leaving at least 83 Qadhafi did in early 2011 to kill his own people; dead in Khan Sheikhoun in Idlib province. The instead, Syrian society expected the Syrian American Medical Society has international community not to allow a similar documented 109 chlorine gas attacks in Syria scenario to unfold in their country. They since the civil war began in 2011. witnessed NATO’s intervention in Libya after the threat of the use of air power against The New Reality in Syria Today civilians in Benghazi. in Syria, starting in 2013 and afterward, the Asad regime’s barrel bombs Many continue to deny the fact that Syria is started raining down on the population and effectively facing a partition of sorts as a result became the most systematic and widespread of what the government calls “local weapon the government used against civilians. reconciliation,” a policy the opposition By July 2015, as areas in Syria were no longer perceives as “ethnic cleansing.” Such under government control, more than 120,000 demographic changes mean major forced people lost their lives due to barrel bombs. The displacements of the majority of the Sunni response of the international community was to population; Shia Iraqis and Iranians who ignore this grave violation of International replace these Syrians in their towns and villages Humanitarian Law. also receive citizenship.

Similarly, one recalls the opposition’s early The events of the last week increase this fear debates in workshops and conferences about among the Syrian population in general and the the use of chemical weapons, with a consensus political opposition forces in particular. The in 2012 that the Asad government could not population deal, which entails a swap between cross the red line drawn by President Barack civilians and militants in the towns of Foua and Obama—and, simply, that there would be no Kefraya—which are both Shia and have been need for the government to use a gas like Sarin under siege by the armed , as long as it continued to be successful in killing namely Ahrar al-Sham—with civilians and its people by conventional weapons. In fact, the fighters from Zabadani and Madaya, both of Asad government used Sarin gas in August which are Sunni towns and have been under 2013, killing more than 1,000 people and Syrian government siege with no access to food bringing the total number of casualties from or water for almost three years. The chemical attacks in Syria to 1,500 as of March international media disseminated pictures of 2016. Again, the Syrian government stated that babies who had died of hunger in Madaya, it had given up its arsenal of chemical weapons which went viral on social media.

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The population swap deal comes after five water. The civilians remaining in the town came different and earlier deals that included Sunni to depend completely on the underground cities that participated in anti-government tunnel network for almost four years; they protests in 2011. Their populations then joined endured heavy bombardment, including barrel the armed opposition to defend their towns and bombs, nearly every day. The ’ prevent Syrian government troops from Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian invading or entering them and massacring the Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, civilians. The international organizations Stephen O’Brien, actually called reported that these massacres or displacement “Syria’s capital of barrel bombs.” Eventually the deals had been perpetrated based on sectarian civilians and militants decided to give up after lines. threats from the government in 2016 that it would burn what was left of the city; the The first city that was subject to such an civilians fled to Idlib, which became the capital enforced displacement deal was Homs. The of the opposition. neighborhoods of the old city, which are predominantly Sunni, were subjected to Darayya, a city whose population was 250,000 massive shelling and near-total destruction, before 2011, became empty. For almost four forcing most of their people to flee. After a two- years its inhabitants were deprived of medical year siege, the regime structured a deal with the and food aid. The only UN convoy allowed by Free (FSA) to flush out the 2,250 the government to enter the city since 2012 was fighters, as well as the civilians who were on June 10, 2016, when a delegation of UN trapped with them, to the northern countryside. officials along with essential assistance This agreement led to emptying the old town distributed contraceptive pills and mosquito- completely from its native inhabitants and to resistant tents, which they said was what the attract more loyalists to the government. The government allowed. The government then population of Homs dropped from 1.5 million bombarded the town with tens of barrel bombs in 2011 to nearly 400,000 people today, with 65 and the United Nations did not try to bring aid percent of the city's indigenous population to Darayya again. After the completion of the leaving to Idlib province. forced displacement of the city’s inhabitants, President Asad made a rare trip to the empty The Darayya massacre of August 2012, where city in September 2016 and performed the Eid more than 700 civilians were slaughtered, led to al-Adha prayer in a mosque there. He increased recruitment for the FSA in the town. responded (AR) to a journalist’s question about The FSA took full control of the city in 2014. Due the demographic changes in Syria by saying to its closeness to the capital, Damascus, the that a city’s demography “changes across Asad government encircled Darayya and put it generations” and pointing out that this is based under a brutal siege with no access to food or on the interests of citizens in those areas. He added, “As for Syria, as in any country, the imperative military reasons so demand” demographic situation is changing because of constitutes a war crime. the economic benefit of the people, the social status and the political conditions vary. Of Unfortunately, the events in Homs and then in course, I do not talk about the countryside. The Darayya in December 2016, which were villages are different, but the cities are always repeated in Aleppo in early 2017, were carried diverse, being close to major cities like out by US-backed moderate local rebels, like Damascus and Aleppo are diverse cities that those in Darayya. There, too, Russia launched can’t be of one color and one form.” blistering air raids at the start of the Geneva talks in January 2017 to help the regime place In examining these events, it is clear that Asad 300,000 people under siege. Syrian regime refused to mention one critical component of his forces, along with Iraqi and Iranian militias strategy: that all civilians in Darayya were backed by Russian air support, used the same evacuated into Idlib against their will. Those tactics that were well documented by the who decided not to leave were then under the Atlantic Council’s investigative experts, such as regime’s mercy and were detained or tortured; barrel bombs and other heavy missiles that others were bussed into rebel areas of northern targeted all hospitals and medical centers, and Syria in a forced population transfer. During the chlorine gas, which sent a clear message to negotiations, the government secured civilians and militants that they have no other concessions by threatening to kill all civilians option but to leave their homes and unless rebels left the town. This is a clear neighborhoods. This strategy worked very well violation of the IHL and can be seen as a sign of in Aleppo with the support of Turkey and ethnic cleansing and demographic change that Russia, which brokered the deal then launched has resulted from the Syrian conflict. the Astana talks to give it a political cover.

Article 129 of the Customary IHL states clearly The same pattern was repeated in the deals that, “Parties to a non-international armed forged for Zabadani and Madaya. Both cities conflict may not order the displacement of the had been under siege for almost three years. In civilian population, in whole or in part, for 2016, the Iranian militias, which are very active reasons related to the conflict, unless the in Syria under different names, demanded the security of the civilians involved or imperative exchange of the Shia population in Foua and military reasons so demand.” Further, the Kefraya with the population of Zabadani and Statute of the International Criminal Court Madaya. At that time, the deal was rejected by states that in non-international armed conflicts, all Syrian opposition groups; the government, “ordering the displacement of the civilian along with the militia which has a population for reasons related to the conflict, strong presence there, tightened the siege and unless the security of the civilians involved or made it almost impossible to live there under

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any conditions. In light of what happened in Administration is still in the pre-chemical attack Darayya and Aleppo, when neither the United mode. It is possible that the US strike on the Nations nor the international community Shayrat military airbase the week before the bus provided any help, the opposition decided (AR) explosion will push the US government to to go ahead with the deal, understanding its develop a strategy for Syria. huge implications—that such an agreement could serve to legitimize the "systematic The US strike after the chemical attack in Khan displacement" carried out by the Asad regime Sheikhoun was a valuable opportunity for and Hezbollah. Washington to take a leadership role in Syria, after many years of leading from behind under US Policy and Syria the Obama Administration. The strike was supported by most European and Arab leaders, After the bus explosion that led to the killing of who saw a possibility for the United States to more than 80 civilians and opposition militants become more involved in Syria and invest more earlier this month, Mark Toner, the acting capital in ending the bloody civil war there. spokesperson for the US State Department, said Indeed, preventing forced demographic briefly, "We deplore any act that sustains and changes and the ethnic cleansing taking place in empowers extremists on all sides including Syria today requires US leadership and a strong today’s attacks, as well as forced migration, position regarding Russia. Otherwise, the world increased displacement, and all forms of will sadly continue to witness Syria’s societal violence directed against civilians in Syria.” breakdown and political demise. This reflects the fact that the Trump