통계청『통계분석연구』제3권 제1호(98. 봄) 157-186

Social and Demographic Implications of at Birth

Sam-Sik Lee*

In Korea, the recent trend of high sex ratio at birth appears to be strongly associated with the fertility decline; within the desired small family size, strong son preference has led to distortion in the secondary sex ratio. This study aims to analyze the social and demographic implications of the sex ratio at birth on the future population. From the findings, the high sex ratio at birth would lead to somewhat substantial change in the future population. The unequilibrium in the marriage market by the distorted sex ratio at birth would face social adjustments. Since the rates of enrollment in the higher levels of education and the labor participation are different between the sexes, the impact of sex ratio at birth needs to be considered in establishing the related policies.

< CONTENTS > 1. Introduction 2. Data and Methodology 3. Relation between Fertility and Sex Ratio at Birth 4. Impact of Sex Ratio at Birth on the Future Population Structure 5. Conclusion

* Statistical Standard Div. , National Statistical Office 158 『통계분석연구』제3권 제1호(98. 봄)

1. INTRODUCTION

When human beings are born, their sex ratio on average is naturally recondite. Under natural conditions, 5 per cent more boys than are born. The main reason for more male than female births is that the number of Y spermatozoa is twice as much as that of X spermatozoa and Y spermatozoa are more active so that they can more easily get to an ovum. The sex ratio at the moment spermatozoa arrive at the ovarian cystoma(primary sex ratio) is almost 160. However, because the fetal wastage before birth is greater for a male than a female fetus, the sex ratio at birth(secondary sex ratio) is reduced to 105(S. C. Shin, 1987). Furthermore, after birth male mortality rates are higher due to the recklessness of boys, to exhaustion, to dangerous occupations, to war, etc.(J. P. Sussmilch, 1741). This serves to maintain the sex ratio of the total population(tertiary sex ratio).

However, this balance in the sex ratio of human beings seems to be distorted by the artificial manipulation of the sex ratio at birth through developments in medical . The main means altering the sex structure of births include sex selective induced abortion, contraception and female . While the under-registration of female births also serves to distort the secondary sex ratio, this results only in a statistical inaccuracy.

Sex selective induced abortion is the method used to abort an unwanted female fetus through fetal sex screening using ultra-sonic diagnostic equipment. This is the major factor distorting the secondary sex structure and thereby, the tertiary sex structure. Contraception Social and Demographic Implications of Sex Ratio at Birth 159 methods also distort the natural sex ratio of births because IUD and sterilization are used to prevent conception when couples are satisfied with the sex composition of their existing children. Contraception has a greater impact on the birth order specific sex ratio than on the overall sex ratio of the births. It has been reported that has been practiced mainly in (C. B. Park, et. al., 1994). However, some studies(Peng, et. al., 1993; Hull, 1990)contend that the strict one child policy in China tends to result in female births being under-reported rather than being lost to infanticide due to a strong preference for sons, which raises the sex ratio at birth.

Other studies devoted to the determinants of sex ratio at birth are related to infant and child mortality, seasonal factors, frequency of sexual intercourse, etc.. For example, some studies(Feitosa, et. al., 1992; Matsuyama, 1972; Ulizzi & Zonta, 1993) contend that the reduction in the fetal wastage rate is higher for males than for females, which plays a role in raising the sex ratio at birth. James(1987) and Roberts(1978) assert that since the probability of the male fetus getting fertilized is high at the early stage of ovulation, a higher frequency of coitus leads to a high sex ratio at birth: therefore, the sex ratio at birth is higher after war and is higher for younger couples(James, 1983; Ruder, 1985).

The high sex ratio at birth in Korea in recent years is mainly due to the high practice of sex selective induced abortion. Many studies( C. B. Park et. al.,1994; Sam-sik Lee,1997) devoted to the determinants of the high sex ratio at birth in Korea indicate that the preference for both sons and smaller families has resulted in distorting the natural sex structure of births. According to Sam-sik Lee(1989b), in Korea the preference for sons which is deeply rooted in the Confucian 160 『통계분석연구』제3권 제1호(98. 봄) tradition with its patrilineal, patrilocal and patriarchal social structure, is an institutionalized value rather than simply a personal preference.

According to an ad hoc survey on vital statistics conducted by the National Statistical Office(NSO) Korea in 1987, about 60 per cent of the ever-married women expressed a preference for sons. As the most pronounced reason for son preference, `feeling strong` accounts for 39.7 per cent. The other reasons for son preference include `carrying on the family name`(33.4%), `old age security`(9.6%), `wanted by the other people`(7.5%), `harmonization in the sex composition of existing children`(7.1%), and `prestige`(2.1%). For these reasons, many Koran couples resort to illegal sex selective induced abortions against the law(Medical Law, 1987) if the baby is not going to be a boy when they are unsatisfied with the sex composition of their existing children.

Such a distortion in the natural structure of the secondary sex ratio may effect the size as well as the sex structure of the future population which will, in turn, modify the labor market, the marriage market, family formation, attitude towards education, etc.. Despite the importance of the social and demographic implications of the sex ratio at birth, there have been very few studies devoted to the impact of sex ratio at birth on the future population. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the social and demographic implications of the sex ratio at birth on the future population in Korea, mainly through a population projection. Social and Demographic Implications of Sex Ratio at Birth 161

2. Data and Methodology

In this study, the data used include the vital statistics based on the vital registration system and the 1996 Population Projections, both produced by NSO Korea. Since the vital statistics is compiled by reports which are collected through the registration of the informants, it is vulnerable to under-registration or delayed registration(Sam-sik Lee,1993). In the case of birth data, the registration rate within the year of occurrence plus the first month of the next year is over 95 per cent and hence the estimation of fertility level is only slightly subject to errors. However, analysis on the characteristics of birth should take into account a probable bias due to the extremity of the delayed reports. From this viewpoint, it seems necessary to evaluate the sex ratios at birth for the years of occurrence which have a different period of time available for the delayed registration.

As presented in Table 1, the sex ratio at birth tends to be lower as the duration for the delayed registration becomes longer, implying that female births are more likely to be delayed for registration than male births. This difference in the registration rate between male and female births may be an indicator for son preference in Korea; parents are less careful in registering female births than male births. For the occurrence year of 1986, the sex ratio at birth calculated from the births occurred in 1986 and registered within the year of occurrence(1986) plus the first month of the next year(0 years delayed registration) is 112.7. The sex ratio at birth calculated from the births occurred in 1986 but registered for 10 years from 1986 to 1995 is 111.7. The difference between these two sex ratios at birth is 1.0. As evident in Table 1, the difference between the sex ratio of the 162 『통계분석연구』제3권 제1호(98. 봄) births with 0 years delayed registration and the sex ratio of the births with more than 1 year delayed registration is less than 1.0 for all years of occurrence under analysis. Therefore, it can be said that utilizing the sex ratios at birth for the years of occurrence having different duration available for delayed registration will distort the analysis very negligibly.

Table 1. Sex Ratio at Birth by Duration for Registration

Year of Duration for Registration(years) Occurrence 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1986 - 112.67 112.32 112.11 111.98 111.91 111.77 111.73 111.72 111.72 1987 109.75 109.45 109.21 109.06 108.98 108.92 108.85 108.80 108.80 - 1988 113.63 113.77 113.60 113.51 113.43 113.36 113.28 113.26 - - 1989 113.14 112.17 112.06 111.97 111.91 111.84 111.79 - - - 1990 117.18 116.89 116.75 116.69 116.63 116.57 - - - - 1991 112.91 112.71 112.60 112.53 112.48 - - - - - 1992 114.00 113.84 113.77 113.73 ------1993 115.64 115.52 115.47 ------1994 115.44 115.35 ------1995 113.43 ------

Source: Computed from Annual Report on Vital Statistics, NSO Korea Note: Sex Ratio at Birth = no. of male births per 100 female births

The population projection used in this study adopts the assumptions on fertility, mortality and international migration that are applied to the 1996 population projection of NSO. It is assumed that the total fertility rate(TFR) in 1995(=1.74) will remain; but due to the change in the age pattern of fertility(age specific fertility rate) of mothers influenced by the rise in marriage age, it will decline to 1.71 in 2010 and thereafter increase slightly. In the mortality assumption, the at birth will continue to increase from 69.55 for males and 77.42 for Social and Demographic Implications of Sex Ratio at Birth 163 females in 1995, by an increment of 0.5 years before reaching 70 years of life expectancy but 0.25 years after reaching 70 years of life expectancy. International migration is assumed to be maintained at the level of 30,000 persons per annum. The details for these assumptions can be seen as below;

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TFR 1.74 1.71 1.71 1.74 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 Life expectancy 73.52 74.85 76.10 76.99 77.58 78.08 78.54 78.95 at birth(years) Male 69.55 71.02 72.27 73.27 73.87 74.47 74.97 75.42 Female 77.42 78.64 79.74 80.69 81.19 81.68 82.09 82.45

In order to measure the impact of sex ratio at birth on the future population structure, five assumptions on the trends in sex ratio at birth in the future are made as follows:

ASSUMPTION 1: sex ratio at birth in 1995(113.4) will continue to decline and after 2015 it will be maintained at the level of 107.0. ASSUMPTION 2: sex ratio at birth in 1995(113.4) will remain up to 2030. ASSUMPTION 3: average sex ratio at birth between 1990 and 1995 will remain to 2030. ASSUMPTION 4: sex ratio at birth in 1995 will change according to trends in proportion and sex ratio by birth order. ASSUMPTION 5: average sex ratio at birth between 1990 and 1995 will change according to trends in proportion and sex ratio at birth by birth order. 164 『통계분석연구』제3권 제1호(98. 봄)

The assumed trends in the sex ratio at birth based on these assumptions can be seen in Table 2. In assumptions 4 and 5, it is assumed that the sex ratios at birth by age of mother and birth order are constant as those of 1995 and the average between 1990 and 1995, respectively. The proportions of births by age of mother and birth order are estimated by regressing the past data.

The sex ratio at birth and the estimated proportions of births by age of mother are calculated for the years from 1995 to 2030. Thus, the sex ratio at birth by age of mother(I) and birth order(j) for the year y

S(y)ij = S(95)ij * P(y) ij here S is the sex ratio at birth, P is the estimated proportions of births, y is the year, I is age group of mother(15-19=1, 20-24=2, ..., 45-49=7), and j is the birth order(j=1,2,3)

Then, the sex ratio at birth by age of mother for the year y

S(y) i. = ∑ S(y)ij

Then, the sex ratio at birth for the year y

S(y).. = ∑[S(y) i. * B(i)] /∑B(i) [B(i) = ASFR(i) * no of women(i)] here, b is the estimated number of births calculated by multiplying the number of women by the age specific fertility rate estimated by NSO.

Social and Demographic Implications of Sex Ratio at Birth 165

Table 2. Trends in Sex Ratio at Birth by Various Assumptions

Year ASS1 ASS2 ASS3 ASS4 ASS5

1995 113.4 113.4 114.1 114.2 116.0 2000 112.7 113.4 114.1 113.3 114.8 2005 110.7 113.4 114.1 111.5 112.6 2010 108.9 113.4 114.1 109.8 110.5 2015 107.0 113.4 114.1 109.5 110.3 2020 107.0 113.4 114.1 109.6 110.4 2025 107.0 113.4 114.1 109.7 110.5 2030 107.0 113.4 114.1 109.8 110.5

3. RELATION BETWEEN FERTILITY AND SEX RATIO AT BIRTH

In the Korean context, the pattern in sex ratio at birth has something to do with the trend in fertility. Looking at Table 3, it seems that there is no systematic relation of sex ratio at birth, both overall and by birth order, with TFR before 1980 but a negative association between them after 1980, although some irregular fluctuations can be seen. 166 『통계분석연구』제3권 제1호(98. 봄)

Table 3. Total Fertility Rate(TFR) and Birth Order Specific Sex Ratios at Birth, Republic of Korea, 1970-1994

Year of TFR Birth Order Specific Sex Ratio Occurrence Total 1st 2nd 3rd 4th & higher 1970 4.5 109.5 110.2 109.3 109.1 109.4 1971 4.5 109.0 108.1 107.7 109.7 110.1 1972 4.1 109.5 109.0 109.5 109.5 110.1 1973 4.1 104.6 106.2 105.3 103.9 103.0 1974 3.8 109.4 114.7 108.5 108.4 104.8 1975 3.4 112.4 120.0 109.8 110.8 105.5 1976 3.0 110.7 113.6 110.1 109.9 107.1 1977 3.0 104.2 104.3 103.6 104.5 105.1 1978 2.6 111.3 111.6 110.9 110.8 112.0 1979 2.9 106.4 106.2 106.2 106.7 107.5 1980 2.8 105.3 106.2 106.5 106.9 110.2 1981 2.7 107.2 106.3 106.7 107.1 112.9 1982 2.4 106.8 105.4 106.0 109.2 113.6 1983 2.1 107.4 105.8 106.2 111.8 120.0 1984 1.8 108.3 106.1 107.2 116.9 128.1 1985 1.7 109.4 106.0 107.8 129.2 146.8 1986 1.6 111.7 107.3 111.2 138.6 149.9 1987 1.6 108.8 104.7 109.1 134.9 148.8 1988 1.6 113.3 107.2 113.3 165.4 183.3 1989 1.6 111.8 104.1 112.5 183.1 201.1 1990 1.6 116.6 108.6 117.2 190.8 214.1 1991 1.7 112.5 105.8 112.6 181.4 201.3 1992 1.8 113.8 106.3 112.6 194.1 220.1 1993 1.8 115.5 106.6 114.8 205.3 246.7 1994 1.8 115.4 106.1 114.3 205.9 237.7 1995 1.7 113.3 105.9 111.7 172.6 200.5 Source: Computed from the Annual Report on the Vital Statistics, Based on Vital Registration, NSO Korea

Under the relatively high rate of fertility before 1980, most couples could attain the desired sex composition of their children through the random biological process by the time they reach their desired family size, which eventually resulted in a natural sex ratio at birth on average. However, under the current low fertility, along with a continued strong son preference (most couples want to have a boy(s) Social and Demographic Implications of Sex Ratio at Birth 167 within the desired small family size), couples tend to continue childbearing beyond their desired family size simply because they are unsatisfied with the sex composition of their existing children. Thus, they are likely to resort to sex selective induced abortion in order to insure that the next birth will be a boy.

As the desired family size has stabilized below the replacement level of fertility since the early 1980`s, the sex ratio at birth has risen very rapidly. In particular, the sudden leap in the sex ratio at birth in the third or higher order of birth implies that the manipulation of sex has been practiced particularly from the third order of birth after fertility has reached the replacement level.

Table 4. Mean Duration of Birth in a Given Order Lapsed Since Actual Marriage1) and Mean Age of Mothers at a Given Birth Order2) by Sex of Birth, Republic of Korea, 1994 (Unit : Years) Birth Order Sex of Birth 1st 2nd 3rd 4th & higher Mean Duration1) Son 1.7 4.1 7.7 11.2 Daughter 1.7 4.1 7.4 10.4 Mean Age of Mothers2) Son 26.4 28.7 31.5 34.0 Daughter 26.4 28.7 31.2 33.6 Source : Computed from the Annual Report on the Vital Statistics, Based on Vital Registration, NSO Korea, 1994

According to Shin(1987), ultra sonic diagnostic equipment was introduced in Korea in 1969 but has only been used for fetal sex-screening since 1980; initially, however, this use appeared to be less of a factor on the sex ratio at birth according to the 1980 and 1985 results. This finding may be identical with the supposition that under high fertility, it is less necessary to resort to 168 『통계분석연구』제3권 제1호(98. 봄) sex-selective abortion since most couples could obtain one or two boys within the desired larger family size. According to the results of the 1994 National Fertility and Family Health Survey conducted by Korea Institute of Health and Social Affairs(Hong et al, 1994), the total induced abortion rate(TIAR) per currently married woman has decreased since 1978 with its peak of 2.9. The recent level of 1.4 in 1993 is slightly less than the TFR(1.8). The change in TIAR may be related to an increase in the practice of sterilization. Moreover, all induced abortions do not necessarily aim at sex-selection birth; among the last induced abortions(2541), only 3.7 per cent were done because the sex of the fetus was female. Most of them(58.4 per cent) were undertaken to avoid unwanted births.

The evidence of sex selective abortion can also be seen from the differentials in the mean duration lapsed from the actual marriage to the birth of the given order and the mean age of mothers at a given order of birth between the sexes of birth(Table 4); the mean duration from marriage to the birth is longer and the mean age of mothers is older for male than female births in the third or higher order of birth.

Regression is often used in an explanatory fashion to look for empirical relationships between variables. In the regression, one variable can be a cause of another variable. In order to identify how fertility is interrelated with the sex ratio at birth, simple regression analyses are adopted. The only single independent variable is the fertility level as measured by TFR. The sex ratio at birth as a dependent variable is broken down by birth order in order to identify how fertility is associated with the sex ratio at birth by birth order. Social and Demographic Implications of Sex Ratio at Birth 169

As presented in Table 5, fertility explains 21.0 per cent ( R 2 = coefficient of determination) of the total variance in the overall sex ratio at birth; fertility appears to have a negative impact on the sex ratio of birth, as expected, with statistically high significance at the level of 0.02(prob>ITI). In regressing fertility to the sex ratio at birth by birth order, it is apparent that fertility explains more of the total variance in the sex ratio at birth at higher orders of birth, showing the statistically higher significance. The impact of fertility on the sex ratio at birth by birth order reveals the negative directions for all orders of birth; the only exception is for the first order of birth where fertilit y is positively associated with the sex ratio at birth.

The results from the regression analyses indicate that fertility decline causes the rise in the sex ratio at birth. The negative relationship between fertility and sex ratio at birth is stronger at higher orders of birth, implying that more sex-selective abortions may be practiced at higher orders of birth.

Thus, the sex ratio at birth will have a direct and substantial impact on the sex structure but a negligible effect on the size of the total population.

Table 5. Regression Analysis on Relation of TFR with Sex Ratio at Birth

Dependent Independent b prob>ITI R 2 Model 1Overall SR TFR -1.5680 0.0213 21.0 Model 21st order SR TFR 1.6631 0.0242 20.2 Model 32nd order SR TFR -1.6211 0.0160 22.7 Model 43rd order SR TFR -24.2901 0.0003 43.4 Model 54th+ order SR TFR -33.2962 0.0001 47.4 170 『통계분석연구』제3권 제1호(98. 봄)

4. IMPACT OF SEX RATIO AT BIRTH ON THE FUTURE POPULATION STRUCTURE

4.1. Impact of Sex Ratio at Birth on the Total Population

It has been hypothesized that a high sex ratio at birth could lead to a substantial drop in population size because of a shortage of childbearing women. However, a 35-year projection shows a very small difference in the population size among the five assumptions with a variation of 5,000 persons or 0.05 per cent. Among the assumptions on sex ratio at birth, the highest speed in population growth appears in assumption 2 that the sex ratio at birth remains at the level of 113.4(Table 6 and Figure 1). On the contrary, the slowest speed in population growth is shown by assumption 5 that the sex ratio at birth will drop very slowly to 111.0 in 2030. The population sizes for the other three assumptions are in-between. These results seem not to support the above hypothesis.

Table 6. Impact of Sex Ratio at Birth on Total Population

(thousand, per 100 female births) Year ASS1 ASS2 ASS3 ASS4 ASS5 2000 47,275(101.7) 47,277(101.6) 47,277(101.7) 47,275(101.6) 47,275(101.8) 2005 49,123(101.8) 19,129(101.9) 49,129(102.0) 49,125(101.8) 49,123(102.0) 2010 50,618(101.8) 50,626(102.1) 50,626(102.2) 50,619(101.9) 50,618(102.1) 2015 51,677(101.7) 51,688(102.3) 51,688(102.5) 51,681(101.8) 51,679(102.1) 2020 52,358(101.6) 52,370(102.5) 52,369(102.7) 52,362(101.8) 52,358(102.1) 2025 52.712(101.3) 52,724(102.5) 52,720(102.7) 52,715(101.6) 52,705(101.9) 2030 52,744(100.9) 52,749(102.4) 52,739(102.7) 52,747(101.3) 52,722(101.6) Social and Demographic Implications of Sex Ratio at Birth 171

The sex ratio of the total population is affected not only by the sex ratio at birth but also by sex differentials in mortality and international migration. However, since the same assumptions on fertility, mortality and international migration are applied to the projections, it can be said that the variation in the sex ratio of the total population due to the sex differentials in mortality and international migration would be negligible and hence the variation in the sex structure of the total population among the five assumptions is accounted for by the sex ratio at birth to a great extent.

In 2030, the sex ratio of the total population varies from 100.9 in assumption 1 to 102.7 in assumption 3, with a difference of 1.8, implying that the sex ratio of the total population is directly influenced by the trends in sex ratio at birth. In assumption 3 where the sex ratio at birth remains at the level of 114.5, males outnumber females by 700,813. And in assumption 1 where the sex ratio at birth drops sharply, males exceed females by 240,206. In assumptions 4 and 5 where the sex ratio at birth will drop slowly, the sex ratio of the total population rises to 2010 and thereafter drops. 172 『통계분석연구』제3권 제1호(98. 봄)

Figure 1. Sex Ratios of the Total Population

103.0

102.5

102.0 ASS1 ASS2 101.5 ASS3 ASS4 ASS5 101.0

100.5

100.0 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028

4.2. Impact of Sex Ratio at Birth on Youth Population

The sex ratio at birth would have more direct impact on the youth population(here, defined as 0-14 years old) than any other groups of the population since the youth population is less subject to mortality and migration. In particular, the impact of the sex ratio at birth on the population in schooling ages is of great importance in connection with the education policy.

As can be seen in Table 7 and Figure 2, the difference in youth population among the five assumptions on the sex ratio at birth is small with around 23 thousand people or 0.27 per cent of variation. For all assumptions, the size of the youth population decreases. The Social and Demographic Implications of Sex Ratio at Birth 173 decreasing trend in the youth population is the most rapid in assumption 1 where the sex ratio at birth is dropping the most rapidly while the other assumptions show a slower decrease. With the same assumptions on mortality, fertility and international migration, a population with a higher sex ratio at birth would experience more losses due to the sex-differential in mortality in favor of female.

Table 7. Impact of Sex Ratio at Birth on Youth Population(0-14 Years)

(thousand, per 100 female births) ASS1 ASS2 ASS3 ASS4 ASS5 1995 10,537(100.7) 10,537(110.7) 10,537(110.7) 10,527(110.7) 10,537(110.7) 2000 10,233(112.9) 10,236(112.8) 10,236(113.1) 10,234(112.8) 10,233(113.4) 2005 10,421(113.0) 10,427(113.5) 10,427(114.0) 10,422(113.1) 10,421(114.1) 2010 10,080(111.3) 10,088(113.0) 10,088(113.7) 10,082(111.6) 10,080(112.9) 2015 9,515(109.4) 9,523(113.0) 9,523(113.7) 9,518(110.1) 9,516(111.1) 2020 9,013(107.9) 9,018(113.0) 9,018(113.7) 9,015(109.0) 9,013(109.7) 2025 8,633(106.9) 8,637(113.0) 8,633(113.7) 8,635(108.4) 8,626(109.0) 2030 8,448(106.5) 8,443(113.0) 8,433(113.7) 8,448(108.3) 8,425(108.9)

The sex structure of the youth population varies in an identical fashion with the assumed sex ratios at birth. The sex ratio of the youth population drops very fast in assumption 1 where the sex ratio at birth drops fast, while those in assumptions 4 and 5 drop slowly. The sex ratio of the youth population for assumptions 2 and 3 remain at a high level. Since there exists a difference in enrollment in the higher levels of education between the two sexes and hence in the percentage of population in schooling, it is important to take into account the impact of sex ratio at birth on the sex structure of the youth population in establishing the related policies. 174 『통계분석연구』제3권 제1호(98. 봄)

Figure 2. Sex Ratios of the Youth Population

115

114

113

112 ASS1 111 ASS2 ASS3 110 ASS4 ASS5 109

108

107

106 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

4.3. Impact of Sex Ratio at Birth on Labor Market

When manpower is defined as the population in ages between 15 and 64, the assumed sex ratio at birth would start affecting manpower at earliest 15 years after the beginning year of projection. Accordingly, the projection can measure only a part of the impact of sex ratio at birth on manpower.

From Table 8 and Figure 3, it is apparent that the difference in the size of manpower among the assumptions is very small with 11 thousand people or 0.03 per cent of variation in 2030, although the variation becomes bigger as the projection years are extended. Social and Demographic Implications of Sex Ratio at Birth 175

However, the sex ratio at birth appears to, rather substantially, effect the sex ratio of manpower. In 2030, the sex ratio of manpower is the highest in assumption 3 and the lowest in assumption, revealing the difference of 1.1 or 16.6 per cent. The number of males outnumbering females in manpower is 2,150 thousand in assumption 5 and 2,116 thousand in assumption 1. The variation in the sex ratio of manpower would be wide if the projection period is extended. From the results, it needs to be mentioned that the sex ratio at birth will affect manpower since the rate of employment(or economically active population) is different between the sexes.

Table 8. Impact of Sex Ratio at Birth on Manpower(15-64 Years)

(thousand, per 100 female births) ASS1 ASS2 ASS3 ASS4 ASS5 1995 31,900(103.0) 31,900(103.0) 31,900(103.0) 31,900(103.0) 31,900(103.0) 2000 33,671(103.3) 33,671(103.3) 33,671(103.3) 33,671(103.3) 33,671(103.3) 2005 34,450(103.6) 34,450(103.6) 34,450(103.6) 34,450(103.6) 34,450(103.6) 2010 35,506(104.2) 35,506(104.2) 35,506(104.2) 35,506(104.2) 35,506(104.2) 2015 36,316(104.8) 36,319(104.7) 36,318(104.8) 36,316(104.7) 36,316(104.9) 2020 36,446(105.2) 36,452(105.3) 36,452(105.5) 36,447(105.2) 36,446(105.5) 2025 35,465(105.8) 35,474(106.2) 35,474(106.4) 35,467(105.9) 35,465(106.2) 2030 34,130(106.3) 34,141(107.2) 34,141(107.4) 34,134(106.4) 34,132(106.8) 176 『통계분석연구』제3권 제1호(98. 봄)

Figure 3. Sex Ratios of Manpower

108.0

107.0

106.0 ASS1 ASS2 105.0 ASS3 ASS4 ASS5 104.0

103.0

102.0 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028

4.4. Impact of Sex Ratio at Birth on Marriage Market

Among the conditions for marriage including age at marriage, education, social class, place of residence, income, etc., one of the most important is the age at marriage or the age difference between men and women(Sam-sik Lee, 1993). In the Korean context, the age at marriage (primarily first marriages) slowly continues to, in recent years, increase for both men and women. The highest percentage of marriage occurs between ages 25-29 for men and 20-24 for women; in 1994 these age groups accounted for 57.2 per cent of the total bridegrooms and 43.4 per cent of the total brides, respectively. And, the age difference between bridegroom and bride was about 3.2 years Social and Demographic Implications of Sex Ratio at Birth 177 in 1994. Based on this result, the marriageable ages are assumed as 25-29 for men and 20-24 for women in this study.

In the 35-year projection analysis, marriage behaviors including age pattern of marriage, prevalence of celibacy, etc. should be kept constant or not drastically changed during the period of projection. The spatial distribution of the sexes in marriageable ages can also cause distortions in the marriage market that are much more serious than those brought about by imbalances in the sex ratio at birth. Thus, social and cultural complexities that would effect the marriage market are not taken into account because of the difficulty in projecting all the factors affecting the marriage market. However, it should be kept in mind that the above assumptions on the marriage market are not realistic to some extent in the Korean context since the proportion of bachelorism tends to be increasing and the imbalances in the spatial distribution of the sexes in marriageable ages between urban and rural areas have distorted the marriage market since the early 1990s(Sam-sik Lee,1993).

As presented in Table 9 and Figure 4, the effect of the sex ratio at birth on the sex ratio at marriageable ages seems to be considerably substantial. Among the assumptions on the sex ratio at birth, assumption 3 shows the highest sex ratio at the marriageable age, which is 118.1 in 2030, males outnumbering females by 265 thousand people. In contrast, assumption 1 reveals the lowest sex ratio at the marriageable age, that is 114.4, males outnumbering females by 216 thousand people. It is explicit that the higher the sex ratio at birth, the higher the sex ratio at the marriageable age. However, it can be 178 『통계분석연구』제3권 제1호(98. 봄) expected that as the sex ratio at birth continuously drops, especially in assumption 1, the sex ratio at the marriageable age will turn to move to the balances, stabilizing the marriage market.

Thus, the distortion in the sex ratio at birth would eventually lead to a deficit of women of marriageable age, so threatening the equilibrium of the marriage market. This imbalance would probably engender a modification in the current pattern of marriage. One adjustment may be that the marriageable age for women would be expanded to a younger age(perhaps 15-19), lowering the mean age at marriage for women, which would result in increasing the gap in age at marriage between the sexes. Such an adjustment to the age pattern of marriage would bring about very serious social implications. In short, women would be highly valued because of their scarcity relative to men. Women would may feel it less necessary or lose the opportunity to be better educated which would lower the average level of educational attainment of women. This kind of adjustment would also discourage women from actively participating in the labor market, causing conflict with a growing demand for female labor in the presence of a labor shortage due to the long trend in fertility decline. Social and Demographic Implications of Sex Ratio at Birth 179

Table 9. Impact of Sex Ratio at Birth on Sex Structure of Marriage Market

(per 100 female, thousand) ASS1 ASS2 ASS3 ASS4 ASS5 1995 103.7( 78) 103.7( 78) 103.7( 78) 103.7( 78) 103.7( 78) 2000 119.1(357) 119.1(357) 119.1(357) 119.1(357) 119.1(357) 2005 107.6(138) 107.6(138) 107.6(138) 107.6(138) 107.6(138) 2010 130.2(445) 130.2(445) 130.2(445) 130.2(445) 130.2(445) 2015 99.1(△15) 99.1(△15) 99.1(△15) 99.1(△15) 99.1(△15) 2020 111.4(186) 111.2(183) 111.6(189) 111.3(185) 112.2(198) 2025 116.5(258) 117.4(270) 118.1(280) 116.7(260) 118.3(283) 2030 114.4(216) 117.3(255) 118.1(265) 114.9(222) 115.9(237) Note: 1) Sex Ratio = no. of males in 25-29 / no. of females in 20-24 *100 2) ( ) = no. of males in 25-29 - no. of females in 20-24

Another adjustment could be that single men would marry widows or divorced women, which would increase the rate of remarriage of widows and divorced women, modifying the current pattern of family formation. The social implications that could arise by the imbalance in the sex ratio at the marriageable age may be that an overabundance of men would bid for women, paying a dowry, that the rate of involuntary bachelorism for men would be high, and that the rate of suicide of unmarried men as well as sex crimes would increase. 180 『통계분석연구』제3권 제1호(98. 봄)

Figure 4. Sex Ratios of the Population in Marriageable Ages

135.0

130.0

125.0

120.0 ASS1 ASS2 115.0 ASS3 ASS4 110.0 ASS5

105.0

100.0

95.0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Social and Demographic Implications of Sex Ratio at Birth 181

5. CONCLUSION

In Korea, the recent trend of high sex ratio at birth appears to be strongly associated with the fertility decline below the replacement level; within the desired small family size, prevalence of strong son preference among Korean couples has led to sex selective induced abortion, especially in the third or higher orders of birth.

From the attempt to measure the impact of sex ratio at birth on the future population, it was found that the sex ratio at birth has a negligible impact on the size of the total population, although a shortage of women of childbearing would lead to a substantial drop in population size. However, it seems that the sex structure of the future population would be substantially influenced by the sex ratio at birth. The sex ratio at birth turns out to effect the youth population in a more direct way because the youth population is less vulnerable to mortality and international migration. The youth population with a higher sex ratio at birth reveals to be smaller due to more loss of males due to the sex differentials in mortality in favor of female. The impact of sex ratio at birth on the sex structure of youth population is that the higher the sex ratio at birth, the higher the sex ratio of the youth population.

The impact of sex ratio at birth on manpower is that as the sex ratio at birth rises, the sex ratio of the manpower rises; but there seems to be an insignificant effect on the manpower size. When the marriageable ages are assumed to be 25-29 for men and 20-24 for women in the Korean context, it is analyzed that the sex ratio at birth would distort the marriage market in the future; the higher the sex 182 『통계분석연구』제3권 제1호(98. 봄) ratio at birth, the more serious the shortage of women at the marriageable age.

From these findings, it can be concluded that the high sex ratio at birth would lead to somewhat substantial change in the future population, in particular, its sex structure. Since the rate of enrollment in the higher levels of education is different between the sexes, the impact of sex ratio at birth on the youth population needs to be taken into consideration in establishing the plans and policies related to the youth population. The change in the sex structure of manpower due to the sex ratio at birth needs also to be considered in the future context of labor supply since the labor participation rate is different between the sexes. The unequilibrium in the marriage market that could be brought about by the distortion in the natural sex ratio at birth would face social adjustments such as wider age gap between bridegroom and bride, high marriage of women in younger age which would result in lowering the rates of enrollment in a higher levels of education and labor force participation of women, and higher rate of remarriage of widows and divorced women. At the same time, the side effects resultant from the distortion in the marriage market which include the suicides and sex crimes of the unmarried men would occur to a considerable extent.

The most important is to recover the natural sex ratio at birth so that the serious impact of the sex ratio at birth on the future population could be avoided. To do so, the strategies for preventing the illegal practice of sex selective induced abortion and furthermore eliminating the high prevalence of son preference need to be established both in the short run and in the long run. In the short run, Social and Demographic Implications of Sex Ratio at Birth 183 the Medical Law should be intensified against the illegal sex selective induced abortion. In the long run, the strategies with the following three directions need to be implemented with simultaneity; ⅰ) The education on gender, the equality of the sexes and the dignity of human life need to be emphasized on from the primary school, which can change the attitude on the induced abortion from the ethical viewpoint.

ⅱ) The education or publicity on gender, the equality of the sexes and the dignity of human life need to be given to the older parents since their son preference has influenced on the young couples.

ⅲ) In addition to the legal improvement, the practical equality between the sexes should be reinforced in all aspects of social life.

REFERENCE

(1) Chai Bin Park & Nam-Hoon Cho (1994), "Gender Preference and Sex Imbalance in the Population and Their Implications in Korea", The Journal of the Population Association of Korea, Vol. 17, No. 1:87-114 (2) Elizabeth Pisani & Basia Zaba (1997), "Son Preference, and the Marriage Market", Paper Presented in the 23rd IUSSP General Population Conference, , 11-17 October (3) Feitosa, M. F. & H. Craggier (1992), " of the Human Sex Ratio in Some Latin American Countries", 1967-1986, Human Biology 64(4):523-530 184 『통계분석연구』제3권 제1호(98. 봄)

(4) Gu, B. & K. Boy (1995), "Sex Ratio at Birth in China, with Reference to Other Areas in East Asia: What We Know", Asia-Pacific Population Journal 10(3): 17-42 (5) Peng, X. & B. Gu (1992), Consequences of Fertility Decline: Social, Economic and Cultural Implications in China, Impact of Fertility Decline on Population Policies and Programme Strategies, Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs (compiled) (6) Hull T. (1990), "Recent Trends in Sex Ratios at Birth in China", Population and Development Review, 16 no. 1: 63-83 (7) James, W. H. (1983), "Decline in Coital Rates with Spouses' Ages and Duration of Marriage". Journal of Biosocial Science 14:83 (8) James, W. H. (1987), "The Human Sex Ratio, Part 1: A Review of the Literature", Human Biology 59(5): 721-752 (9) Matsuyama, T., The Recent Increase in the Sex Ratio at Birth and Related Factors in Japan, Human Ecology Race Hygiene 38:61-67, 1972 (10) National Statistical Office Korea(1996), The Future Population Projection (11) National Statistical Office Korea(1986-96), Annual Report on the Vital Statistics (12) Roberts, A. M. (1978), "The Origin of Fluctuations in the Human Secondary Sex Ratio", Journal of Biological Science 10: 169-182 (13) Ruder, A. (1985), "Parental and Birth Order Effect on the Human Secondary Sex Ratio", American Journal of Human Genetics 37: 362-372 (14) Sam-Sik Lee (1989a), Son Preference and Fertility: The Case of Korea, 1985, Unpublished Master`s Thesis of Philosophy in Demography, UN-ARE Cairo Demographic Center, Cairo (15) Sam-Sik Lee (1989b), "Determinants of Son Preference: The Case of the Republic of Korea, 1985", Cairo Demographic Center Research Monograph Series, 19:1004-1028 Social and Demographic Implications of Sex Ratio at Birth 185

(16) Sam-Sik Lee (1990a), "Determinants and Consequences of Son Preference", Journal of Population, Health and Social Welfare, 10, No. 1, Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs (17) Sam-Sik Lee (1993), "Analysis on Change in Korean Marriage Behaviors", the Journal of the Population Association of Korea, Vol.16, No.2:84-110 (18) Sam-Sik Lee & Jong Choi (1993), The Current Status of Vital Statistics and Civil Registration Systems in The Republic of Korea, The Country Report Presented to the Workshop on Strategies for Accelerating the Improvement of Civil Registration and Vital Registration Systems, Beijing, 29 Nov.-3 Dec. (19) Sam-Sik Lee (1997), Son Preference under Low Fertility in Korea, Proceedings of the International Population Conference, Beijing, 11-17 October 1997, Vol. 3:1025-1043, IUSSP, (20) Sung-Chul Shin (1987), "Study on the Sex Ratio of Live Birth in Korea", Journal of the Korean Biometric Society, Vol. 12, Number 1, 30-40 (21) Sussmilch, J. P. (1979), 1741 L`Ordre Divin, Berlin, Republished in French Translation (22) Ulizzi, L. & L. A. Zonta (1993), "Sex Ratio and Natural Selection in Humans; A Comparative Analysis of Two Caucasian Populations", Annual of Human Genetics 57: 211-219 186 『통계분석연구』제3권 제1호(98. 봄)

출생성비의 사회인구학적 영향

이 삼 식

최근 한국의 출생성비 추이는 인구대체수준 이하로 감소할 출산력 추이와 강한 관계를 갖고 있다. 남아선호사상이 아직 강하게 존재하고 있으 면서, 1～2명의 적은 수의 자녀를 갖고자하는 경향이 높아지므로서, 출산전 태아의 성감별을 통한 인공유산이 많아지고 또한 1～2아에서 원하는 자녀의 성구조를 갖게되면 단산하는 비율이 높아지고 있다. 이는 결국 자연적 출생성비의 균형이 파괴되어, 장래인구의 크기와 구조에 영향을 미치게 된다. 본 연구는 출생성비의 변화추이를 여러 가지로 가정하여 향후 인구를 추계하였으며, 그 결과를 이용하여 출생성비가 장래 인구의 구조 등에 미치는 영향을 분석하고자 하였다.

분석결과, 출생성비가 총인구, 노동시장, 결혼인구, 교육인구의 크기에 미치는 영향은 미약한 것으로 나타나고 있으나, 성구조에 미치는 영향은 보다 실질적이며, 시간이 갈수록 커지고 있는 것으로 나타나고 있다. 따라서, 인구정책과 함께 사회․경제정책을 수립시에 출생성비의 인구 및 사회․경제적 영향을 감안하여야 할 것이다.