Team Number 5

Case:

Team’s Representative

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction 1

Context In Which To Consider Salaries Year-Over-Year 2

Mr. Gagner’s History 3

Comparable Players 4

Non-Comparable Players 6

Table 1: Relevant Statistics for Sam Gagner and Valid Comparable Players 8

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Introduction

It is the position of the that, when valid comparable players are taken into account, a fair award for forward Sam Gagner is a one year contract valued at $2,866,667.00.

Sam Gagner is a promising young player who has demonstrated some consistency in his five years in the league. He has a history of several varied injuries and has yet to achieve the breakout season that has been expected. Available comparable players (those who have recently been restricted free agents) in terms of salary and offensive production tend to be slightly older than

Mr. Gagner, entering the prime of their careers. This age factor should be taken into account in the arbitration decision; in the award of a short-term contract, Mr. Gagner is not entering the prime years of his career as are most of the available comparable players. Unlike many of the available comparators, Mr. Gagner has not demonstrated the expected defensive consistency and has not been a physical presence in the NHL.

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Context In Which To Consider Salaries Year-Over-Year:

Team payrolls in the can and should be thought of as a zero-sum game.

Clubs must stay within a salary cap that is set ahead of time for each Member Club of the

League. Each dollar paid to one player is a dollar that his club cannot offer to one of his teammates.

It is therefore not difficult to compare player salaries from one year to salaries from another year from the seasons following the adoption of the 2005 Collective Bargaining Agreement – salary cap levels serve as an inflation index.

Season Salary Cap 2007-08 50,300,000 2008-09 56,700,000 2009-10 56,800,000 2010-11 59,400,000 2011-12 64,300,000 2012-13 70,200,000 Source: http://proicehockey.about.com/od/learnthegame/a/nhl_salary_cap.htm

To wit: the salary cap level for the 2007-08 season was US$50.3M; the salary cap level for the

2012-13 season will be US$70.2M. A player’s salary of $1.0M for the 2007-08 season is thus equivalent to a player’s salary of ($1.0M x $70.2M)/$50.3M, or $1.4M, relative to the rest of the

League.

It is important to keep this multiplier in mind when comparing Player contracts from one season to those from another – for accurate comparisons and analogies are at the heart of the arbitration process.

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Mr. Gagner’s History

In Mr. Gagner’s platform year (2011-12) he played 75 games, scoring 18 goals and providing 29 assists for a total of 47 points1. He achieved his first career ‘plus’ season with a plus/minus rating of +52. His average ice time per game was 17:10, with 2:27 on the power play and 3:32 short- handed per game. In the four seasons for which official NHL statistics are available, Mr. Gagner has averaged 26 hits per season. Mr. Gagner has yet to play a playoff game in the NHL.

Mr. Gagner’s totals of 75 games and 47 points in 2011-12 are the most since his rookie season of

2007-8 when he played in 79 games and scored 13 goals and 36 assists, for a total of 49 points.

Due to an extensive history of several minor injuries, however, Mr. Gagner has not played a full season of 82 games in his first five seasons in the league3. Through those five seasons, Mr.

Gagner has averaged approximately 73 games per season. With this average number of games played per season, Mr. Gagner has averaged 44 points per season.

Regarding plus/minus, Mr. Gagner is a career MINUS 42. While he did record his first plus season in 2011-12, he has not demonstrated the expected consistency with respect to defensive responsibilities. This becomes clearer when comparing Mr. Gagner’s performance to the valid comparable players (see below).

Although Mr. Gagner’s ice-time increased in his first four seasons in the league, last year saw a decline from an average of 17:44 in 2010-11 to an average on 17:10 in 2011-12. This decrease in ice-time for Mr. Gagner is likely to represent a trend as several of the young stars contracted to the Edmonton Oilers continue to develop into full-time NHL players.

1 All Statistics for Sam Gagner: http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8474040#&navid=nhl-search 2 See Table 1 (page 8) for a summary of the comparative statistics presented in this section. 3 http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/teams/players/bio/?id=6052

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Valid Comparable Players

Two comparable players, both of whom were arbitration eligible in 2012, are Sergei Kostitsyn of the and Nikolai Kulemin of the . Both of these players were 25 years old and were awarded two-year contracts, taking them into the prime of their playing careers4. Another valid comparable player, Blake Wheeler of the , was arbitration eligible in 2011 and represents a solid comparator when considering an arbitration award for Mr. Gagner. Mr. Wheeler was also 25 and signed a two-year deal during the summer in which he was eligible for arbitration5.

When comparing the four players, Mr. Gagner’s average total per full NHL season (44) falls in the middle which ranges from a low of 40 (Nikolai Kulemin6) to a high of 46.5 (Sergei

Kostitsyn7). This would suggest that Mr. Gagner is deserving of a salary in the range of these comparators. It is useful, however, to consider some more detailed statistics with respect to this arbitration award.

Of the four players, Mr. Gagner is the youngest (22), has played in the most full NHL seasons

(5) and had the highest average ice-time per game in his platform season8. In the seasons they have been full-time NHL players, however, Mr. Gagner has played in the fewest games per season (73). This has been largely due to several and repeated minor injuries including a concussion and injuries to his back, knee, hand, ankle and hip9. Given this history of injuries, it is questionable whether Mr. Gagner has the durability or required fitness levels to play an entire 82

4 http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/feature/?id=46931 5 http://www.mynhltraderumors.com/2011/07/06/2011-nhl-salary-arbitration-list/ 6 All statistics for Nikolai Kulemin: http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8473579#&navid=nhl-search 7 All statistics for Sergei Kostitsyn: http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8471859#&navid=nhl-search 8 See Table 1 (page 8) for a summary of the statistics presented in this section. 9 http://ww.tsn.ca/nhl/teams/players/bio/?id=6052

5 game NHL season in the future. Further, his career Plus/Minus rating (-42) is significantly below that of his comparators who range from a low of +1 (Nikolai Kulemin) to a high of +42 (Blake

Wheeler10). Finally, if we consider the average hits per season in which the player at hand and the comparable players have been full-time NHL players11, Mr. Gagner again ranks last amongst the comparators. His average of 26 hits per season is well below Mr. Kostitsyn’s average of 42,

Mr. Wheeler’s average of 86 and Mr. Kulemin’s average of 111.

Consideration of these final two statistics (career plus/minus and average hits per season) suggest that the defensive and physical aspects of Mr. Gagner’s game are not as well developed as his comparators, at this point in his career.

10 All statistics for Blake Wheeler: http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8471218#&navid=nhl-search 11 Official NHL ‘Hits’ statistics are only available for the past four seasons on the nhl.com website.

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Non-Comparable Players

Two players who are arbitration eligible in the 2012 off-season that may be suggested as valid comparable players to the player at hand are David Perron and T.J Oshie, both of the St. Louis

Blues. Without delving gratuitously into more statistics (both have a higher point per game and career plus/minus), it should be noted that both these players, in addition to other comparable players in 2011 and 2012, both signed long-term deals (4 years for Mr. Perron, 5 years for Mr.

Oshie12) that take them both well into the prime of their careers. The clubs in these deals would be paying a premium early in the contract in order to secure the long-term services. Thus, such contracts are not valid comparators for the present arbitration regarding Mr. Gagner.

12 http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/feature/?id=46931

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Conclusion

Mr. Gagner’s offensive production is commensurate with the aforementioned valid comparable players. Although he has averaged more ice-time per game in his platform season, it is noted that his average ice-time decreased from the season before and may decrease further, as other young players establish themselves as full-time NHL players. Mr. Gagner’s durability is a concern as due to a history of varied injuries, he has yet to play a full 82 game season in the NHL. While acknowledging that he has more NHL experience in terms of complete seasons and noting that the physical and defensive aspects of his game are underdeveloped in comparison, a fair market value for a one-year deal would be an average of the awards to the three aforementioned comparator players (adjusted based on salary cap as noted). Taking the average value per season of the awarded contracts to the valid comparable, a fair award for Mr. Gagner would be a one- year contract at $2,866,867.00.

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Table 1: Relevant Statistics for Sam Gagner and Valid Comparable Players

Player Year Full Avg Avg Career Avg. Ice time per Contract Average $ Signed NHL Seasons Games Points per 13 game(season value/season (age) Played season +/- Hits/Season prior) Length (adjusted)14 Sam Gagner 5 73 44 Minus 42 26 17:10 (22) Sergei 2012 2 76 46.5 Plus 28 42 16:28 2 years $3million Kostitsyn (25) Nikolai 2012 3 77 40 Plus 1 111 15:13 2 years $2.8million Kulemin (25) Blake Wheeler 2011 3 82 42 Plus 42 86 16:14 2 years $2.8million (25)

13 Includes all NHL games up to the end of the season in which the player was arbitration eligible, including partial seasons. 14 Salaries signed in years prior to 2012 are adjusted to 2012 value, as described above.