Henley Index and Global Mobility Report

2019 “More than ever before, migration touches all states and people in an era of deepening globalization.”

United Nations World Migration Report 2018 CONTENTS

Introduction: Global mobility today 7

PART 1: GLOBAL MOBILITY TRENDS 9 Wealth migration 10 Talent migration 11 Forced migration 12 Climate migration 13

PART 2: REGIONAL MOBILITY TRENDS 15 The Caribbean 16 Asia Pacific 17 Sub-Saharan Africa 18 The Middle East and North Africa 19 Europe 21 and the CIS 22 The Americas 23

PART 3: Trends in Travel Freedom 25 Insights from the Henley Passport Index 26 The 2019 Henley Passport Index 28 The effect of travel freedom on economic growth and democracy 30

PART 4: Trends in Migration Technology 33 Digital identity for refugees and global citizens 34 Contributors

Dr. Parag Khanna Dr. Christian H. Kälin Founder and Managing Partner of FutureMap, Expert in investor immigration and a data- and scenario-based strategic advisory citizenship-by-investment and Group firm headquartered in Chairman of Henley & Partners

Prof. Simone Bertoli Paola De Leo Professor of Economics at Université Clermont Head of Philanthropy and CSR at Henley & Auvergne (CERDI) and a Research Fellow at the Partners and Executive Director at the Andan Institute of Labor Economics Foundation

Prof. Rosemary Lyster Dr. Suzette Haughton Professor of Climate and Environmental Senior Lecturer in the Department of Law at the University of Sydney and Director Government at the University of the West of the Australian Centre for Climate and Indies in Environmental Law

Froilan Malit Ryan Cummings Associate at the Gulf Labour Markets, Migration, Independent consultant to international news and Population (GLMM) program and a Fellow outlets, publications, and think-tanks and a at Centre International de Formation des Director at Signal Risk Copyright © 2019 by Henley & Partners. Autorités et Leaders (CIFAL)

This report and the individual contributions contained in it Lorraine Charles Prof. Florian Trauner are protected under copyright. No part of this report may Research Associate at the Centre for Business Jean Monnet Chair at the Institute for be reproduced, stored, or transmitted in any form or by any Research at the University of Cambridge European Studies and a Visiting Professor at means without prior written permission. the College of Europe

The H&P monogram and Henley & Partners are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of Henley & Partners Dr. Marina Soroka Dr. Diego Acosta Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved. Independent scholar and published author Leading expert on global and comparative whose field of expertise is the history of migration law and Associate Professor in This report is provided for general information purposes only European international relations Migration Law at the University of Bristol and can in no way substitute legal or other professional advice. While the publisher and authors have undertaken great care Dominic Volek Uğur Altundal in preparing this report, they cannot guarantee its correctness Managing Partner, a Member of the Researcher in political science at Syracuse and completeness and make no representation or warranties Management Board, and Head of Southeast University with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents Asia at Henley & Partners of this report.

Any comments and suggestions, praise and criticism will be ÖMER Zarpli Monique Jeanne Morrow gratefully received. If you feel that a particular topic should be Researcher in political science at the President and Co-Founder of The Humanized added to this report, please let us know via the contact page University of Pittsburgh Internet on henleyglobal.com

For general information on our other publications and services, please visit henleyglobal.com Introduction: Global mobility today

by Dr. Parag Khanna Dr. Parag Khanna is Founder and Managing Partner of FutureMap, a data- and scenario-based strategic advisory firm headquartered in Singapore.

Migration has become an ever more central issue in world affairs, both a cause and a consequence of other major themes on the global agenda, such as economic growth, political instability, and climate change. We live in a world where all major issues, including migration, have become by definition cross-border.

Fiscal crises and high unemployment have depend. Indeed, America’s and Britain’s loss is pushed southern Europeans to northern Europe, proving to be ’s and ’s gain, as they the Gulf cities, and the Far East, while state and others maintain openness through transparent The world has had to failure in the Arab world and Africa has drawn migration programs. proactively develop political and economic migrants to Europe in coordinated and droves. The more intense these challenges have Furthermore, major regions such as Asia are pragmatic migration become over the past year, the more the world becoming ever more pragmatic in their migration policies, and the has had to proactively develop coordinated and policies. The aging societies of Northeast Asia same will be true in pragmatic migration policies, and the same will — , , and — are all the years ahead. be true in the years ahead. importing more laborers and talented migrants than ever before, both from one another and European politics continued to be dominated from the younger societies of Southeast Asia. by migration-related rhetoric in 2018, with China’s Thousand Talents scheme, ’s Brexit moving forward despite mounting entrepreneur visa, and similar initiatives from evidence that the UK’s National Health Service to Singapore show Asian states sustaining and other public institutions are suffering a high comfort level with mutually beneficial manpower shortages. In , the Christian economic migration. The long-term demographic Democratic Union suffered badly in multiple realities that make migration crucial for developed Western provincial elections at the hands of the anti- Migration, then, is an exemplar of a broader societies: immigration Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), ideological divergence that contrasts the approaches even though net new refugee inflows have of engagement and isolation. Consider how with been drastically reduced. and respect to , Russia, and , the US also experienced populist political turns, while has sought sanctions as the primary instrument of 2019 will witness elections for the European leverage, while Asian and most European nations Aging populations Parliament that are already being billed as a prefer engagement. referendum on European migration policy. But these geopolitical tensions will not be

In America, the Trump administration’s continued resolved by competing approaches working Increasingly diverse industries reduction of the inflows of both skilled migrants at cross-purposes. In matters of diplomatic (through the H-1B program) and refugees tension, climate change, counter-terrorism, and and asylum seekers remains a core part of the organized crime — and most certainly migration president’s political agenda. — pragmatic coordination is the lesson to be learned from the preceding year and, hopefully, But the situation in Europe and America should to be applied in the year ahead. Shrinking tax bases not cloud our vision of the long-term demographic realities that all but necessitate that Western societies absorb more migrants, on whom their aging populations, diverse industries, and tax bases

7 Part 1

GLOBAL MOBILITY TRENDS Wealth migration Talent migration

by Dr. Christian H. Kälin by Prof. Simone Bertoli Dr. Christian H. Kälin is an expert in investor immigration and citizenship-by- Prof. Simone Bertoli is Professor of Economics at Université Clermont Auvergne (CERDI) investment and Group Chairman of Henley & Partners. in and a Research Fellow at the Institute of Labor Economics in Germany.

Wealth and talent will go where they are wanted and stay where they Uncertainty was a key factor for highly educated and highly skilled migrants are well treated. Today that adage — attributed to legendary banker in 2018, and it will remain so in 2019. A major destination country, the Walter Wriston — is truer than ever. Some 95,000 high-net-worth UK, is still involved in negotiations regarding its status after 29 March individuals migrated in 2017 (the latest year for which data is available), 2019 — the date that will (or ought to) mark its exit from the EU. up from 82,000 in 2016 and 64,000 the year before — ample evidence The future status of EU nationals in the UK is still In other cases, however, mobility opportunities that the migration of wealth around the globe continues to accelerate. unclear, and the attractiveness of this destination for are actually being reduced. The US Citizens talented individuals could substantially deteriorate; and Immigration Services decided in 2018 to While highly There are an estimated 18.2 million high-net- Flows go both ways, however, and there has been indeed, net migration flows from the EU to the UK limit the availability of premium (that is, fast- educated and worth individuals on the planet (defined as a noticeable and significant increase in appetite have plummeted over the past two years. track) petitions-processing for H-1B visas, highly skilled those with assets of at least USD 1 million), among wealthy individuals in both Europe and Wealthy individuals which (in exchange for an additional fee) allows individuals may and their collective wealth has now surpassed the US for access to residence- and citizenship- tend to have the British academic institutions fear a decline in their applications to be dealt with within two weeks. feel pushed out of the USD 70 trillion mark. That number also by-investment programs in other nations — a skills, knowledge, ability to recruit scholars, given the loss of access This change will make life harder for H-1B visa traditional migration continues to grow and is projected to exceed trend that is set to increase. More broadly, overall capacity — and to EU sources of funding — such as European holders seeking to accept job offers from alternate destinations, they USD 100 trillion by 2025. The migration of demand for a second passport continued to grow capital — that Research Council (ERC) grants — that have employers, as it leaves them unsure about whether are receiving a very these individuals is particularly beneficial for in 2018: more than a third of global ultra-high- can increase an traditionally represented a lifeline for them in a their new position will allow them to maintain warm welcome in the nations they move to. Nearly half of the net-worth individuals (those with a net worth economy’s overall context of declining funding from national sources. their visa status. other parts of world. 17 countries that saw the biggest percentage exceeding USD 30 million) already hold one, and wealth and standard (Scholars based in the UK obtained almost 20% of increases in wealth from 2016 to 2017 were another 29% are planning to obtain one. of living. all the 4,202 ERC grants allocated between 2007 As with the UK, uncertainty will in this case act assisted by inflows of wealthy people. 95,000 and 2018.) Similarly, London’s finance sector as a brake on mobility. Because the new policy In addition to the larger economies taking in 82,000 64,000 could lose a substantial part of its appeal, and other ties talented foreign workers more closely to China, , , and the UK saw the biggest wealthy individuals, several smaller nations — European countries (notably, France, Germany, and their initial employer, it could indirectly reduce outflows of such individuals in 2017. Safety, , , , , and 2015 2016 2017 Ireland) could decide to strengthen policy measures the attractiveness of the US labor market for financial stability, high taxes, and religious or among them — also saw significant wealth inflows Number of HNWIs migrating to attract financial sector workers. these individuals. political tensions are a few of the factors driving in 2017. Several of these nations are benefiting per year these wealthy citizens abroad. According to the from residence- and citizenship-by-investment A substantial part of the prevailing uncertainty The increasingly lengthy and uncertain 2017 Knight Frank Wealth Report, demand for programs. Malta, for example, saw a 12% increase Intense competition to attract relates to whether other countries will decide to processing time for H-1B visa petitions in the the best and the brightest will new nationalities is highest from China, Russia, in its ultra-wealthy population in 2016, primarily be a likely outcome of Brexit engage in a competition to grab the ‘low-hanging US stands in contrast to the measures that and the Middle East, with around four-fifths of due to its citizenship-by-investment program. fruit’ represented by those talented migrants who China, for example, is currently trying to visas under the US EB-5 residence-by-investment are reconsidering their decision to move to (or to implement. The country’s newly introduced program going to Chinese nationals. Such programs account for about one in five remain in) the UK, either through fiscal incentives China Talent (R) Visa program is characterized Sources: wealthy individual migrations, though this Anderson, Stuart. 2018. ‘Who The percentage of UHNWIs or by increasing their ability to recruit scholars by the complete absence of application fees and Will Be Hurt by the Latest Millionaires looking for residence or citizenship number excludes individuals who gain citizenship who hold a second passport or beyond the standard national procedures. is expected to allow applications submitted by USCIS Decision on H-1B Visas?’ in alternative jurisdictions are seeking better in a second country but do not take residence, as plan to obtain one talented foreign workers to be processed within Forbes. 5 September 2018. schools, lower crime rates, and more abundant well as those who move globally among several ‘EU Financial Centres Vie to The lack of coordination of immigration policies a few working days. business opportunities. They are finding these residences. Including such individuals would Sources: Poach Tens of Thousands of among EU member states — as well as the limited City Jobs’. 2017. The Guardian. conditions in nations such as Australia, the US, show an even larger impact on global wealth Capgemini. 2018. World Wealth 3 April 2017. Report 2018. nature of outreach efforts to attract skilled In short, while highly educated and highly skilled and Canada, which topped the list of wealthy trends from the investment migration industry. ‘Figures on the EU Blue Karlgaard, Rich. 2009. immigrants, such as the so-called EU Blue Card, individuals may feel pushed out of traditional Card’. 2016. Federal Office individual inflows in 2017. In the case of Britain, ‘Wriston’s Law Still Holds’. for Migration and Refugees Forbes. 6 August 2009. which closely resembles a German-only policy migration destinations, they are receiving a very Brexit and the concerns associated with it have Wealth is clearly on the move globally, now more (Germany). 30 November 2016. Knight Frank Research. 2018. instrument — suggests that intense competition warm welcome in other parts of world, where ‘Immigration Worries Drove slightly reversed the flow of wealthy individuals in than ever. Wealthy individuals tend to have the The Wealth Report: The Global to attract the best and the brightest will be a likely economic and career opportunities might one day the Brexit Vote. Then Attitudes Perspective on Prime Property Changed’. 2018. The Washington recent years, although the UK Tier 1 Investor Visa skills, knowledge, capacity — and capital — that th and Investment. 12 Edition. outcome of Brexit. Such an outcome could improve even eclipse those offered by countries such as the Post. 16 November 2018. Program remained popular until its temporary can increase an economy’s overall wealth and New World Wealth. 2018. mobility opportunities for highly educated and UK and US. Junlu, Jiang and Liu Chang suspension in December 2018. standard of living. Attracting and keeping them Global Wealth Migration Review. King. 2018. ‘New Rules on the highly talented individuals. are critical to nations seeking those outcomes. Wealth-X. 2018. The World R Visa’. China Law Insight. 16 Ultra Wealth Report 2018. January 2018.

10 11 Forced migration Climate migration

by Paola De Leo by Prof. Rosemary Lyster Paola De Leo is Head of Philanthropy and CSR at Henley & Partners and Executive Prof. Rosemary Lyster is Professor of Climate and Environmental Law at the University Director at the Andan Foundation. of Sydney and Director of the Australian Centre for Climate and Environmental Law.

In attempting to communicate the scale and severity of the global forced The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Global Warming displacement crisis, numbers and statistics are the most obvious place of 1.5°C report estimates that global temperatures are 1.0°C above to begin. We know that, worldwide, there are currently more than 68.5 pre-industrial levels, while warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between million people who have been forcibly displaced by war and internal 2030 and 2052. conflict — slightly more than the population of the UK, and slightly less Meanwhile, the World Economic Forum’s that countries adopt the following measures: than the population of Thailand. Global Risks Report 2018 identifies the following implement legislation, policies, and strategies top nine global risks, in descending order: to avert, minimize, and address displacement, Estimates about According to a report released by the UN Refugee to spend your entire adult life in a camp and to see weapons of mass destruction; extreme weather taking human rights into consideration; map, the scale of climate Agency (UNHCR), 40 million of those people your imaginative horizons diminishing. They give events; natural disasters; failure of climate understand, and manage human mobility; displacement vary are internally displaced, while 28.5 million of us no real understanding of what it feels like to leave Because of conflict, change mitigation and adaptation; water crises; strengthen preparedness, including early from 25 million them have fled their countries. Half of those a country of first asylum, where merely surviving persecution, or cyber-attacks; food crises; biodiversity loss and warning systems, contingency planning, people at the 28.5 million people are children. Excluding those is difficult, and embark on a second migration, a generalized violence, ecosystem collapse; and large-scale involuntary evacuation planning, and resilience building; conservative end, defined as long-term Palestinian refugees, over journey that will leave home even further behind. 31 people are forced migration. Seven are likely to be influenced by integrate human mobility into national planning to 1 billion in the two-thirds come from five countries in the world: to leave their homes climate change, which, combined with other processes; protect internally displaced persons; middle, to 2 billion , , South , , Finally, and perhaps most importantly, they tell every single minute drivers, already results in climate migration. and facilitate the orderly, safe, and responsible at the high end. and . 85% of all forcibly displaced people are us nothing about hope. Not the illusory hope of every single day. migration and mobility of people, by enhancing being hosted in developing countries such as Iran, offered by empty bromides about the resilience However, climate change is also causing forcible opportunities for regular migration pathways. , , , and Turkey. of the human spirit, but the real hope created by 25.4 million 3.1 million refugees asylum seekers displacement following extreme weather events meaningful international partnerships, innovation, (such as cyclones) or slow-onset events (such as Meanwhile, the UN Global Compact for This last statistic is perhaps especially noteworthy, and constant adaptation. Since 2016, the UN has drought or sea-level rise). Climate migration or Migration, including climate-induced migration, given the occasionally disproportionate attention been appealing to governments, the private sector, 68.5 displacement may be temporary or permanent, aims to mitigate the factors that hinder people Extreme weather events (such as paid to developed countries’ response to the and civil society to join hands in a global effort million* cyclones) and slow-onset events and internal or across borders. The 2016 Global from building and maintaining sustainable (such as rising sea levels) are forced displacement crisis. Every one of the to develop a coordinated approach to migration. causing forced displacement Report on Internal Displacement found that, livelihoods in their countries of origin; reduce figures surrounding this crisis has the capacity to On 10 December 2018, the Global Compact for worldwide, there are twice as many people the risks that migrants face, by protecting their stop us in our tracks, however: 727,000 Rohingya Migration — the first international agreement on 40 million displaced internally as across borders. human rights; and create conditions that enable refugees driven from Myanmar into the movement of people — was finally signed by internally displaced 200% migrants to enrich society through their human, in 100 days; 2.8 million children displaced within 164 nations. *Total number of forcibly The percentage of displaced people worldwide But are people who cross borders ‘climate economic, and social capacities. Syria. Among other things, these figures show people displaced refugees’? A refugee is defined under the 1951 that we are living through a displacement crisis The private sector plays an increasingly prominent internally compared Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees 2018 was an important year in terms of for which there is no precedent. role in offering creative solutions to the refugee to across borders as a person who has a well-founded fear of international recognition for the plight of CDPs. crisis. In 2015, for instance, entrepreneur Hamdi 50% being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, The recommendations of both the Task Force Because of conflict, persecution, or generalized Ulukaya spearheaded a collaboration among 100 The percentage of the global Sources: nationality, membership in a particular social on Displacement and the UN Global Compact Bodansky, Daniel, Jutta violence, 31 people are forced to leave their homes international brands in offering employment to refugee and asylum seeker population comprised by group, or political opinion. Consequently, the should result in far better protections for them Brunnee, and Lavanya every minute of every day. It is critical to take note over 200,000 refugees. Technology, too, is playing children Rajamani. 2017. International International Organization for Migration’s in the future. Climate Change Law. Oxford: of these sobering figures, but it is equally critical to an instrumental role. From the employment of Oxford University Press. term ‘climate-displaced persons’ (CDPs) is bear in mind that numbers and statistics can only refugees within the digital industry, to training Sources: Intergovernmental Panel on now preferred. Climate Change. 2018. Global UNHCR. 2016. ‘Global Trends: Warming of 1.5°C. ever provide a partial insight into what forcibly programs in coding schools, to the stunning Forced Displacement in 2015’. World Economic Forum. 2018. displaced people face, and into what they overcome. efforts to digitize personal documentation through 20 June 2016. Global Risks Report 2018: Estimates about the scale of climate displacement th blockchain applications, we are witnessing UNHCR. 2016. ‘Internally 13 Edition. Displaced People’. 7 July 2016. vary from “25 million at the conservative Internal Displacement For instance, none of these figures tell us what it is remarkable examples of how humanitarian efforts UNHCR. 2017. ‘100 Days of end, to 1 billion in the middle, and 2 billion Monitoring Centre. 2016. like to come to the painful conclusion that you have are changing to meet the complex demands of Horror and Hope: A Timeline Global Report on Internal at the high end”. To better protect CDPs, Displacement. st of the Rohingya Crisis’. 5 run out of options, and that there is nothing left to the 21 century. As long as we are willing to do December 2017. International Organization the Task Force on Displacement, mandated for Migration. 2008. ‘Climate do but leave your home, your town, or even your what we can to expand our understanding, there UNHCR. 2018. ‘Global Trends: under the Paris Agreement, has recommended Change and Migration: country. They tell us nothing about what it is like is always hope. Forced Displacement in 2017’. Improving Methodologies to 25 June 2018. Estimate Flows’.

12 13 Part 2

REGIONAL MOBILITY TRENDS The Caribbean Asia Pacific

by Froilan Malit by Dr. Suzette Haughton Froilan Malit is an Associate at the Gulf Labour Markets, Migration, and Dr. Suzette Haughton is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government at the Population (GLMM) program and a Fellow at Centre International de Formation University of the West Indies in Jamaica. des Autorités et Leaders (CIFAL) .

For both economic and personal reasons, migration is an appealing In Asia Pacific, international migration and mobility have become prospect for some Caribbean citizens. Intra-Caribbean and international increasingly more complex, dynamic, and diverse, shaping the migration remain pronounced features of Caribbean migration patterns. overall social, economic, and demographic conditions in the region. Intra-Caribbean migrants are those nationals who travel from their The UN estimated in 2017 that there were 80 million international countries to others within the Caribbean region for employment purposes. migrants in the countries and areas comprising Asia Pacific.

An important example of this form of the US and Canada on these countries’ guest International migration has strengthened labor These irregular migration flows are characterized migration involves the movement of Cuban worker schemes. These migrants obtain seasonal market mobility, remittances, and trade across by mixed legal migration issues (visa overstays, International doctors and nurses to Anglophone Caribbean employment in the US and Canada as hotel Intra-Caribbean and Asia Pacific. For example, the Philippines has cross-border movement) and they are also, to a migration has not states, where they work in hospitals in these and agricultural workers. Similarly, university international short- obtained USD 33 billion in remittances from certain extent, facilitated by global smugglers. only helped stabilize countries. –Caribbean health agreements students from , Jamaica, stay migration will migrants, while other countries in the region Irregular migration flows in Asia Pacific have economic growth in support intra-Caribbean labor force migration and have also obtained summer probably remain — including China (USD 64 billion), Pakistan contributed to the rising number of migrants Asia Pacific but also by minimizing the shortage of health care employment in the US through work and study stable in 2019, but (USD 20 billion), and India (USD 69 billion) in detention and deportation centers across enabled many labor- professionals in the region. programs, where their services are utilized in the return migration — have likewise received remittances that have the region and pose bilateral and multilateral sending countries food industry. may be hampered by been vital to their economies. challenges for governments seeking more effective to sustain strong International migration has negatively impacted economic and safety and humane migration-governance responses. economic growth, the pool of doctors and nurses in the Caribbean The UK and the US have also provided concerns in the Due to the economic contribution of migration even in times of region. Some doctors and nurses from Jamaica, scholarship opportunities to students from the region. to development, countries such as Pakistan, Refugees and displaced citizens also play an crisis. Barbados, and Trinidad and Tobago have opted English-speaking Caribbean through the UK India, and have strategically invested important role in Asia Pacific migration — to exploit opportunities in developed countries Commonwealth, Chevening, and Fulbright in skills training and qualification programs Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran alone 20 — namely, the US, the UK, and Canada — scholarship programs. These annual scholarship for workers seeking employment elsewhere host 2.7 million Afghan refugees — but many Pakistan because health care facilities in these countries opportunities are popular avenues through which in Asia Pacific or the Gulf, in a bid to enhance countries in Asia Pacific have still not ratified 33 are equipped with modernized technologies, and people from the Caribbean enter those countries 1,470 these workers’ productivity and wages. Overall, the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of The Philippines compensation packages are better. as short-stay migrants for academic purposes. The number of international migration has not only helped Refugees. Existing resettlement programs in 64 Jamaicans who have stabilize economic growth in Asia Pacific but also the US, Australia, and European countries have China 69 Further, demographic factors and developed Another trend in the region is that of return obtained Canadian enabled many labor-sending South and Southeast proved extremely limited. Moreover, more and countries’ policies have facilitated the migration migration. Short-stay migrants normally return to Asian countries to sustain strong economic more second-generation migrants find themselves India residence through Total remittances received of citizens from the Caribbean region. For their countries once their seasonal employment the Express Entry growth, even in times of crisis. with an irregular status (having no national from migrants working abroad (in USD billion) example, Canada’s aging population and the or scholarships end. Additionally, some program identity or international travel documents), which increased demand for state spending on senior- Caribbean migrants who have been naturalized Low-skilled temporary migration has become poses the risk of their potential statelessness. Sources: related programs, coupled with reduced tax as citizens in developed countries have returned an essential feature of the Asia Pacific region. ASEAN Secretariat. 2016. revenues, have factored into the government’s to their countries of birth to retire. In Jamaica, In fact, international migratory paths to While international migration in Asia Pacific ‘ASEAN Consensus on the Protection and Promotion of the decision to extend Canada’s immigration through a special program has been established to assist Darussalam, , the Republic of Korea, has produced ongoing policy challenges, it Rights of Migrant Workers’. Sources: the Express Entry program. Immigration, returning residents with their resettlement. Singapore, and Thailand mainly involve low- has also generated multiple opportunities for Colombo Process. 2018. Latin American and Caribbean Refugees, and Citizenship Canada — the governments to deepen diplomatic relations and ‘The Pilot Project on Skill Regional Preparatory Meeting skilled, single migrants working predominantly Development, Certification, immigration department of the Government of The 2019 outlook for the Caribbean region of International Migration in highly segmented low-skill or low-status address migration issues. The current ASEAN Upgrading, and Recognition’. Experts on the Global Canada — has reported that, between January is that migration in all its forms is likely to Compact for Safe, Orderly, jobs that are often masculinized (for example, Consensus on the Protection and Promotion of International Organization for Migration. 2017. ‘Asia and the 2015 and May 2018, 1,470 Jamaicans obtained continue. Intra-Caribbean and international and Regular Migration. 2017. construction) and feminized (for example, Migrant Workers was signed in 2017 to deal with Santiago de . 30–31 Pacific’. Canadian permanent residence by applying to short-stay migration will probably remain stable, August 2017. domestic work and nursing). migration governance and protection issues. The Refugee Council. 2018. ‘Refugee this program. but the resettlement of retirees through return Thompson, Kimon. 2018. ongoing Colombo Process pilot initiatives in skills Protection in the Asia-Pacific’. ‘Jamaicans Flocking to UN DESA. 2017. International migration may be hampered by economic and Canada’. The Jamaica Irregular migration remains a major dimension recognition and certification, recruitment, and Migration Report. Short-stay international migration continues to safety concerns in the region. Observer. 10 September 2018. of migration in Asia Pacific, which hosts the migration technology have guided governments in World Bank. 2018. ‘Migration ‘35 Trained Cuban Doctors and Remittances: Recent be a major trend among residents of Caribbean Assigned to SERHA’. 2013. world’s largest flow of undocumented migrants, addressing labor violations in origin, transit, and Developments and Outlook’. countries. Some Jamaicans have travelled to The Jamaica Observer. 12 who mostly originate from neighboring countries. destination countries within the region. Migration and Development September 2013. Brief 29.

16 17 Sub-Saharan Africa The Middle East and North Africa

by Ryan Cummings by Lorraine Charles Ryan Cummings is an independent consultant to international news outlets, Lorraine Charles is a Research Associate at the Centre for Business Research at the publications, and think-tanks and a Director at Signal Risk. University of Cambridge.

Conflict-induced forced migration has long defined population Migration in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has movement in Sub-Saharan Africa, and this remained the case in long been dominated by regional conflicts and their attendant refugee 2018. Ongoing intra-state conflict in , the Central African crises — a trend that prevailed in 2018 and is set to continue into 2019. Republic (CAR), the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), , The large numbers of refugees coming from Syria, Palestine, and other and — and associated socio-economic ills such as countries in the region have placed economic strain on host communities famine — largely accounts for the estimated 6.3 million refugees — particularly because the MENA countries where the majority of currently living in Sub-Saharan Africa. refugees are hosted tend to be middle- or low-income economies.

Looking ahead to 2019, elections in the DRC the creation of the World Trade Organization. Since the international funding that provides international financial assistance, via multilateral and the spread of extremist violence from Known as the African Continental Free Trade assistance for refugees continually falls short of organizations and INGOs, is needed to support The global private northern Mali to the country’s more populated Area (ACFTA), the initiative authorizes signatory The development requirements, host countries, forced to use their refugee-hosting economies and, thereby, improve sector has the south and central zones could lead to further states to remove tariffs from 90% of goods, of key economic national budgets, are struggling to meet even the the lives of both refugee and host populations. potential to provide forced migration from these two states. allowing free access to commodities, goods, and sectors across the basic needs of the growing numbers of refugees employment services across the continent. continent is creating within their borders. The global private sector can play a key role in remotely to hundreds A number of positive developments that took opportunities to supporting refugees, both by mobilizing financial of thousands of shape in 2018 have the potential to change Concomitant with this agreement, which is set absorb the plentiful The economic challenges arising from this resources quickly and by providing a level of MENA-based some of these long-standing patterns, however. to increase intra-African trade by 52% by 2022, labor resources that situation include rising public debt, decreasing expertise and innovation that generally cannot refugees. Notably, warring parties in South Sudan reached has been a commitment by member states to lift Sub-Saharan Africa GDP, high unemployment rates, declining job be matched by humanitarian actors. The global a negotiated settlement in September 2018, entry requirements for fellow Africans, in order has to offer. opportunities, and increasing levels of poverty private sector is also an important source of formally ending the country’s five-year-long civil to maximize the economic dividends accrued in developing refugee-hosting countries. On the employment. Through its channeling of foreign war. In addition, stabilizing political conditions from the ACFTA and other associated pan- other hand, the Turkish economy has generally direct investment to refugee-hosting countries, 7,000 could see the return of displaced populations African trade deals. 52% been boosted by the influx of new businesses for example, jobs can be created locally for both from countries such as Uganda and Sudan and an from Syria: 7,000 companies have been founded refugee and host communities. The number of The increase in Turkish companies overall reversal in the region’s migration trends. Economic benefits remain a significant driver intra-African trade or co-founded by Syrians in Turkey since 2011, of migration in Africa. The initiation or though this economic growth slowed in 2018. In addition, by employing responsible business founded or co- predicted to occur founded by Syrians This would build upon an emerging trend in East development of key economic sectors across the by 2022 as a result practices — such as mandating that a particular since 2011 Africa, linked to the stabilization of Somalia and continent, and indeed outside of it, is creating of the African Refugee-hosting countries generally enforce proportion of jobs be allocated to refugees or the return of displaced communities residing in opportunities to absorb the plentiful labor Continental Free protectionist labor laws that restrict refugees that employment adhere strictly to local labor the country’s neighboring states. Also within resources that Sub-Saharan Africa has to offer. from fully accessing the domestic labor market. laws — the private sector could provide dignified Trade Area Sources: the Horn of Africa, the unprecedented decision This is particularly the case in the hydrocarbon In Lebanon and , Syrian refugees only livelihoods to refugees, as well as to members of Building Markets. 2018. by and to end an almost two- sector, where an increased demand for oil is have the right to work and acquire work permits host communities. ‘Turkish–Syrian Business decade-long political impasse has resulted in increasing production of the commodity and Sources: in limited sectors (agriculture and construction). Partnerships: A Nascent ‘IOM Trends Analysis: Most Opportunity’. June 2018. a marked increase in bilateral migration across creating employment opportunities. Horn of Africa Migrants Move Palestinian refugees also have restricted access Because local MENA economies cannot absorb Charles, Lorraine. 2017. ‘How the countries’ erstwhile disputed borders. These within Region’. 2018. Relief to the labor market in Lebanon. In Turkey, the full number of refugees who need jobs, there Remote Work Could Help Web. 9 November 2018. Refugees’. World Economic movements are expected to only continue in Similarly, the development of nascent industries while Syrian refugees are allowed to work in is an urgent need for a scalable, sustainable, and Kuti, Dela. 2018. ‘Africa Could Forum. 22 November 2017. 2019, as East African states strengthen the social, in countries such as , , and Be the World’s Next Big Oil any sector, employment is restricted by a quota replicable model for job creation. The global Crisis Group. 2018. ‘Turkey’s and Gas Energy Play’. How Syrian Refugees: Defusing political, and economic ties between them. even could go a long way in not We Made It in Africa. 10 May set by the government (namely, one Syrian for private sector has the potential to provide Metropolitan Tensions’. only addressing unemployment within these 2018. every ten Turkish employees). This has meant employment remotely, via technology and the Ghazal, Mohammad. 2018. The easing of restrictions between Ethiopia and jurisdictions, but also attracting unskilled and Runde, Daniel. 2018. ‘What that many refugees are under-employed or work internet, and can potentially provide jobs to ‘Syrian Refugee Population Peace in Eritrea Means for Increases Slightly Last Year’. Eritrea can be seen as a microcosm of a wider semi-skilled workers from beyond their borders. Forced Migration’. Centre for informally, often earning less than the minimum hundreds of thousands of MENA-based refugees. The Jordan Times. 19 February trend toward greater economic inclusion in Sub- Strategic and International wage in sub-standard working conditions. 2018. Studies. 12 July 2018. UNHCR. 2018. ‘Funding Saharan Africa. In March 2018, for instance, Signe, Landry. 2018. ‘Why With the appropriate level of political will, the Shortfall Risks Critical African states promulgated the world’s largest Africa’s Free Trade Area The plight of refugees in the MENA region will impact that the private sector could have on the Humanitarian Response for Offers So Much Promise’. The Syrian Refugees, Internally and most profitable free-trade agreement since Conversation. 26 March 2018. continue to be a challenge in 2019. Greater refugee crises in the MENA region is significant. Displaced’.

18 19 EUROPE

by Prof. Florian Trauner Prof. Florian Trauner is Jean Monnet Chair at the Institute for European Studies at the Free University of Brussels. He is also a Visiting Professor at the College of Europe.

In 2018, migration continued to be a polarizing and salient issue in Europe. The EU persisted in negotiating the reform of its migration and asylum policies, initiated in the wake of the refugee crisis that started in 2015. The strengthening of Frontex, the EU’s Border and Coast Guard Agency, was a key element of the EU’s move to curb unwanted migration. The EU intends to increase the agency’s staff count from 1,500 in 2018 to 10,000 border guards by 2020.

Reinforced EU border controls, in addition to on a number of controversial policies, including intensified cooperation with transit countries the denial of docking rights to vessels carrying such as Turkey and , have made it more rescued migrants. The conditions in , with The prospect of difficult for undocumented migrants to arrive seriously overcrowded refugee camps on some European Parliament on European soil. With about 40,000 to 50,000 Greek islands, also caused public concern. elections in May asylum applications being submitted per month, 2019 will make the the EU has reached numbers comparable to the Throughout 2018, the EU’s emphasis was reform of EU asylum years prior to the refugee crisis. more on controlling irregular migration than and migration on developing pathways for legal migration. policies even more Irrespective of the decreasing numbers of Supported by the Commission, some member difficult to achieve. applications, the question of how to distribute states developed legal migration pilot projects asylum seekers within the EU has regularly caused with selected African countries, albeit on a modest controversy. According to Eurostat data for the scale. Other efforts by the Commission to enhance 167,190 first six months of 2018, three out of four asylum legal pathways into the EU — for instance, by October 2015 applications in the EU-28 were made in only reforming the EU’s Blue Card Directive — were 6,400 five countries (Greece, Italy, , France, and not supported by member states. The political August 2018

Germany). The European Commission sought climate for developing a proactive EU migration Number of asylum applications to tackle this imbalance by adding a mandatory policy was, overall, unfavorable. received per month in the EU relocation quota for asylum seekers to the EU’s Dublin system. However, this proposal was met The trends observed in 2018 are likely to with fierce political opposition, in particular in continue in 2019. The next elections to the Sources: Eastern Europe. European Parliament will take place in May Eurostat. 2018. ‘Asylum and First-Time Asylum Applicants 2019. The prospect of an election will make the by Citizenship, Age, and Sex: The reform of the Dublin system proved reform of EU asylum and migration policies even Monthly Data (Rounded)’. . difficult to achieve in 2018, even if the issue more difficult to achieve. As a matter of fact, the European Commission. of European burden-sharing continued to be EU will most likely focus on stopping irregular 2018. Progress Report on relevant in national elections. Populist and migration, in order to prevent migration from the Implementation of the European Agenda on anti-migration parties gained electoral support becoming the overbearing issue of the campaign. Migration. COM(2018), 301. in the Italian general and German regional Brussels. Niemann, Arne and Natascha elections, contributing to German Chancellor Zaun. 2018. ‘Special Issue: EU Angela Merkel stepping down as party leader of Refugee Policies and Politics in Times of Crisis’. Journal of the Christian Democratic Union in December. Common Market Studies 56, In Italy, the anti-migrant party known as ‘the no. 1 (2018): 1–205. Ripoll Servent, Ariadna and League’ formed a coalition government with Florian Trauner (eds.). 2018. the anti-establishment Five Star Movement. The Routledge Handbook of Justice and Home Affairs The League’s leader, Matteo Salvini, embarked Research. London: Routledge.

20 Russia and the CIS THE AmericaS

by Dr. Marina Soroka by Dr. Diego Acosta Dr. Marina Soroka is an independent scholar and published author whose field of Dr. Diego Acosta is a leading international expert on global and comparative migration expertise is the history of European international relations. law and is Associate Professor in Migration Law at the University of Bristol.

Russia’s economy, although not fully recovered since 2014, continues Migration and mobility in Latin America in 2018 were almost to outperform the stagnant regions from which a largely under- exclusively dominated by the emigration of thousands of Venezuelans qualified young male workforce pours in. This influx of foreign to other countries in the region, with the addition of around 50,000 workers, in turn, has proved critical to maintaining economic Nicaraguans applying for asylum in . According to productivity in the face of high emigrant outflows. estimates offered by the International Organization for Migration in November 2018, the number of refugees and migrants from Russia’s pivotal position in Central Eurasia, Russian media agencies regularly publish its comparatively lenient migration laws, and, encouraging stories about Russian migrants worldwide has already reached three million people. With Russia’s labor frequently, the absence of a language barrier worldwide. According to Russian statistics, about market poised to 80% of this number are now residing in Latin end of October that the country will not continue virtually guarantee that Russia will remain 60,000 Russians emigrate annually, but the data shrink even further America and the Caribbean, with to offer residence permits. Since migration flows the largest migrant recipient in 2019 for the is unverifiable because Russians are not required in 2019, the need (around one million), (approximately half will continue, this move might lead to numerous Domestic courts will Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to declare that they have emigrated. Besides, the emerge as important for migrant workers a million), (around 220,000), and individuals ending up with undocumented status, and , as well as a popular destination for issue is politically sensitive, as it is in Ukraine, actors in the attempt remains critical. and Chile (over 100,000) having increasing the risk of situations of exploitation. Vietnamese, Chinese, Indian, North Korean, and where over one million people left the country to maintain some received the largest number of Venezuelans. Turkish workers. each year between 2014 and 2017. of the advances Second, the region will see the emergence of in migration Kyrgyz 250,000 The legal responses of Latin American and domestic courts as important actors in the liberalization that Despite a downward trend in migrant inflows, With Russia’s labor market poised to shrink even Caribbean countries to the arrival of Venezuelans attempt to maintain some of the advances in have been made between January and September 2018 Russia further in 2019, the need for migrant workers can generally be characterized as open, although migration liberalization — notably regarding the since the turn of the received over 3.4 million Uzbeks, 1.7 million remains critical. The further aging of the Ukrainians 347,000 with some caveats. While most countries in the free movement of regional migrants — that have century. Tajiks, 347,000 Ukrainians, and almost 250,000 Russian population without an ongoing influx of region (with exceptions such as Trinidad and been made since the turn of the century. Courts Kyrgyz, with migrants from other regions falling migrants may leave entire peripheral regions of Tajiks 1,700,000 Tobago) are trying to offer residence permits have already played important roles in 2018 in far behind these numbers. the country depopulated. Migrants tend to flow — so as to avoid situations of undocumented places like Ecuador, Peru, Colombia, Argentina, to Moscow, St. Petersburg, and other large cities. 3,000,000 Uzbeks 3,400,000 residence, which could lead to possible and Chile. Nearly half of Russia’s estimated 10–12 million According to the migration policy guidelines Migrant inflows to Russia, exploitation — typically such permits are only The number of migrants are illegal. Registration procedures for for 2019–2025, migrants will soon be directed January–September 2018 applicable to certain categories of Venezuelans Third, the arrival of Jair Bolsonaro to the Venezuelans who foreigners were tightened as of 31 December to under-populated Siberian and Far Eastern (for example, those arriving after a certain Presidency of in early 2019 might produce have emigrated as a 2017, with the federal authorities intensifying regions, and governmental recruiting agencies result of the ongoing 5,000,000 date); are adopted by executive decrees, with changes in the migration policy of Latin America’s the punishment for employing illegals. To allay in Central Asian states will have the mandate little intervention by parliaments; and merely most populous country. While the number crisis in their country widespread fears about migrants’ monopolizing to prevent human rights abuses and tax fraud. The number of grant temporary residence, thus generating legal of foreigners residing in Brazil is very low and criminalizing of certain industries, regions Similarly, a socio-cultural assimilation program Ukrainians who uncertainty for the future. (constituting less than 1% of the total population), were allowed to set their own quotas for will facilitate foreign nationals’ integration into left their country Sources: any restrictive signal by such a country is likely to employing migrants in certain industries (public Russian society. between 2014 Acosta, Diego. 2016. ‘Free The prospects for 2019 point in the direction of have negative consequences for debates in other Movement in South America: transport, security, pharmaceutical, and food). A and 2017 the ongoing emigration of Venezuelans, as well as neighboring states. The Emergence of an Alternative CIS migration law that is currently in the works To encourage the inflow of qualified Model?’ Migration Information Sources: Nicaraguans, to countries in the region — in the Source. Migration Policy aims to regulate all aspects of migration. professionals, the process of obtaining Russian Institute. 23 August 2016. Klimkin, Pavel. 2018. ‘Kiyev case of Nicaraguans, almost exclusively to Costa Finally, Latin American’s second most populous citizenship and work licenses is being eased. So Acosta, Diego. 2018. The Priznal Migratsiyu Ukraintsev Rica, due to the latter’s proximity and stability country, , will also see the arrival of a The number of migrants pushed into Russia far, this policy is working: although in 2018 Katastroficheskoy’. Lenta. 4 National versus the Foreigner September 2018. and the historical and migration links between new president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, in South America: 200 Years of Migration and Citizenship from , , , fewer work permits were issued, the percentage Scherbakova, Ekaterina. 2018. both countries. This opens up several scenarios, who holds a completely different political Law. Cambridge: Cambridge Afghanistan, Ukraine, and Syria by political of professionals among legal migrants increased. ‘Migratsiya v Rossii: Itogi Pervogo Polugodiya 2018 for which we can anticipate a range of possible ideology from that of Bolsonaro. Mexico will face University Press. distress or pro-native citizenship and language Goda’. Demoscope Weekly. trends. First, while many Venezuelans have numerous challenges that will affect its already Freier, Luisa Feline and laws dropped to 13,200 in 2018. Since 2014, September/October 2018. Nicolas Parent. 2018. ‘A ‘Ukaz O Kontseptsii obtained residence permits in countries across the poor track record when it comes to the protection South American Migration Russian professionals have been fleeing political Crisis: Venezuelan Outflows Gosudarstvennoy region, we can already see some countries closing of the rights of migrants in its territory, including and social stagnation in the wake of Putin’s Migratsionnoy Politiki Test Neighbors’ Hospitality’. Rossiyskoy Federatsii na their doors. This is most obvious in the case of those fleeing violence in , , Migration Information Source. three re-elections. 2019–2025 Gody’. 2018. Migration Policy Institute. Kremlin. 31 October 2018. Peru, where President Vizcarra announced at the and . 18 July 2018.

22 23 Part 3

Trends in Travel Freedom Insights from the Henley Passport Index the top spot in the Middle East region for the Methodology first time in the index’s history, after signing The rise of Asian an unprecedented visa-waiver with Russia. The The Henley Passport Index and its contents are by Dominic Volek nations on the UAE has made a stunning ascent since the index’s based on data provided by the International Air Dominic Volek is a Managing Partner, a Member of the Management Board, and Head of Southeast Asia at Henley Passport inception, from 62nd place in 2006 to 21st place Transport Authority (IATA) and supplemented, Henley & Partners. Index is long worldwide at the end of 2018. enhanced, and updated using extensive in- overdue, with Japan house research. and Singapore Despite a year in which the world has witnessed an upsurge in populist and nationalist Generally, movements on the Henley Passport blazing the trail Index in 2018 point to a strong desire on the On a fixed date each year, Henley & Partners movements, the story told by the Henley Passport Index is one that speaks overwhelmingly for other peaceful part of countries in the Middle East to reduce receives exclusive data from IATA, which of increased visa liberalization and travel freedom for the world as a whole. The growth commercial powers their dependency on the hydrocarbon sector — forms the basis of the Henley Passport Index. in the region. in global travel freedom has been far from equally distributed, however. and a corresponding willingness among other In order to maintain the accuracy of the data nations to attract Middle Eastern investment provided by IATA in the face of constant Originally invented in 2004 by Dr. Christian Kälin, who inbound tourism, the government also liberalized visa access to and solidify bilateral trade and tourism. updates to visa policy, and in order to create designed the first ranking of all the world’s countries according its Hainan province for passport holders from 59 countries — an detailed visa lists for all 199 in our to how many destinations their citizens can travel to visa-free, unprecedented move for this historically closed-off nation. 2015 As we push into 2019, the trends from 2018 look database, the Henley & Partners research team the Henley Passport Index is the original, authoritative, and The last time either set to continue. In the Q1 2019 ranking, Japan uses publicly available and reliable online most widely used index of its kind. In the third quarter, EU nations became conspicuous by their the US or the UK sits in 1st place, while Singapore and South Korea sources to cross-check each passport against all lack of activity in the visa-waiver sphere. According to scholars held the top spot on share 2nd place. South Korea holds this position 227 possible travel destinations. This research In the first quarter of 2018, Germany lost the top spot on the who commented on this trend, the stasis of EU nations on the Henley Passport for the first time, overtaking both France and process is ongoing throughout the year. It is index for the first time in six years, as Japan and Singapore the Henley Passport Index in 2018 can be attributed to the Index Germany. , , and Myanmar coupled with a rigorous monitoring system took over in joint 1st place. Significantly, this was not just current political climate in the region, with a growing anti- have each moved four places up the ranking to pick up relevant visa-policy shifts and to a breakthrough for Japan and Singapore, but also highly immigration sentiment peppering the debates taking place in compared to the beginning of 2018, in another ensure that the index remains ‘live’. emblematic of the increasing passport power of the Asian many EU member states. demonstration of Asian passport power. and th continent as a whole. As a number of commentators have 6 Afghanistan continue to hold the bottom spot on For each travel destination, if no visa is required pointed out, the rise of Asian nations on the Henley Passport Elsewhere, the US remained the regional leader in terms of The Q1 2019 the index, each offering their citizens visa-free for passport holders from a country or territory, Index is long overdue, with Japan and Singapore blazing passport power but failed to make any gains compared to position jointly held access to only 30 destinations worldwide. then a score with value = 1 is created for that the trail for other peaceful commercial powers in the region 2017. It seems increasingly unlikely that either the US or the by the US and UK passport. A score with value = 1 is also applied (such as South Korea). UK will regain the number 1 spot they jointly held in 2015. Neither the US nor EU member states are if passport holders can obtain a visa on arrival, a forecast to revise their current closed-door visitor’s permit, or an electronic travel authority policy, while countries in other parts of Europe (ETA) when entering the destination. These visa 190 14 (such as citizenship-by-investment newcomers types require no pre-departure government The number of and ) as well as those approval, because of the specific visa-waiver countries and st 21 in Asia and the Middle East will most likely programs in place. territories accessible 9 continue seeking visa-waiver agreements with to citizens of Japan, strategic diplomatic allies, in line with their Where a visa is required, or where a passport who hold the more proactive foreign affairs approach. The holder has to obtain a government-approved strongest passport in US and the UK have slid down the ranking from electronic visa (e-visa) before departure, a the world 3 5th to 6th place this year. score with value = 0 is assigned. A score with 2 value = 0 is also assigned if passport holders 62nd 1 A final word ought to be added concerning need pre-departure government approval for a the great unknown that is Brexit. Until a final visa on arrival — a scenario that we do not 2006 2010 2014 Q4 2018 2006 2010 2014 Q4 2018 deal is hammered out, it is difficult to know consider ‘visa-free’. what exactly the ramifications will be for EU– Europe Asia UAE UK travel, although, as it stands, it seems that The total score for each passport is equal to International Air visa-free arrangements will remain in place. the number of destinations for which no visa Transport Association Figure 1: The number of European versus Asian countries in the top 3 of Figure 2: The ranking of the Emirati passport on the Henley Passport Index And with waiting in the wings for visa is required (value = 1), under the conditions the Henley Passport Index over time liberalization with the EU, the year ahead is defined above. bound to contain its fair share of surprises in Sources: China performed well in the second quarter, gaining access to By the fourth quarter, Japan had overtaken Singapore to the travel freedom space. Kälin, Christian H. and the UAE, , and , which boosted its become the most powerful passport in the world, boasting visa- Henley & Partners. Henley overall position on the ranking. As part of China’s effort to boost free access to a record-high 190 countries. The UAE claimed Passport Index. 2006–present. henleypassportindex.com.

26 27 Powered by THE 2019 HENLEY PASSPORT INDEX International Air Transport Association

Rank Passport Score

1 Japan 190 13 178 34 141 58 88 77 63 89 49

2 Singapore 189 14 Chile 175 35 Venezuela 138 59 86 78 62

South Korea 15 Monaco 174 36 137 79 61

3 France 188 El Salvador 60 Qatar 85 90 Cameroon 48

Germany 16 Cyprus 173 Honduras 61 Jamaica 83 India Myanmar

4 187 17 Brazil 171 37 Guatemala 136 Papua New 91 Congo (Rep.) 47

Finland 18 Argentina 170 38 Peru 134 62 82

Italy 19 169 39 130 63 81 80 58

Sweden (SAR China) 40 129 64 80 Mozambique 92 46

5 Luxembourg 186 65 79 Sao Tome and Principe 93 45

Spain 20 168 41 128 66 77 94 Kosovo 44

6 185 67 Kazakhstan 76 Uzbekistan 95 Congo (Dem. Rep.) 43

Netherlands Ukraine Oman 81 57 Sri Lanka

Norway 21 Brunei 165 42 Colombia 127 68 75 82 Cote d'Ivoire () 56 96 Ethiopia 42

Portugal 22 164 Thailand Guinea Iran

Switzerland 23 161 43 Macedonia (FYROM) 125 69 China 74 North Korea

United Kingdom 24 Barbados 159 44 124 83 55 97 Bangladesh 41

United States 25 Mexico 158 70 73 Lebanon

7 184 26 Bahamas 154 45 123 71 72 Mali Libya

Canada Montenegro 72 71 South Sudan

Greece 27 151 46 Moldova 122 Kenya 84 Cambodia 54 98 40

Ireland St. Kitts and Nevis 47 Micronesia 121 99 Palestinian Territory 39

8 183 28 150 48 Russian Federation 119 73 Gambia 68 Sudan

9 Malta 182 29 Costa Rica 149 49 Bosnia and Herzegovina 118 85 53 100 Eritrea 38

10 Australia 181 Islands Guinea-Bissau 101 37

Iceland 30 Trinidad and Tobago 148 50 115 74 66 102 Pakistan 33

New Zealand 51 Georgia 114 Philippines 103 Somalia 32

11 180 31 Mauritius 145 52 Turkey 111 86 Comores Islands 52 Syria

Latvia St. Lucia 53 101 75 Islands 65 Laos 104 Afghanistan 30

Lithuania 32 Macao (SAR China) 144 Cuba 87 51 Iraq

Slovakia St. Vincent and the 54 Timor-Leste 97 Grenadines 55 Ecuador 93 76 64 33 143 12 179 56 91 Uganda 88 50 Malaysia 57 89 Zimbabwe Jordan

This graph shows the full Global Ranking of the 2019 Henley Passport Index. In certain cases, a rank is shared The Henley Passport Index is a live ranking. The information provided here reflects by multiple countries because these countries all have the same level of visa-free or visa-on-arrival access. the ranking on 8 January 2019. For the latest ranking, visit henleypassportindex.com The Effect of Travel Freedom on Yet most existing empirical studies on the effect There are several possible explanations for Economic Growth and Democracy of visa liberalization are based on the analysis of the somewhat surprising findings outlined one or two cases. There is little cross-national above. For one, democracy is generally thought The number of visa- free destinations held by Uğur Altundal evidence on how the rising number of visa-free to be ‘contagious’. It has been argued that destinations has affected countries’ economies democratization is rarely a purely domestic by a sender country Uğur Altundal is a researcher in political science at Syracuse University. has a positive and ÖMER Zarpli and, to date, no empirical study that addresses phenomenon, and that cross-border diffusion and statistically Ömer Zarpli is a researcher in political science at the University of Pittsburgh. the question of its effect on democracy. plays a very important role in its development. One of the pathways through which diffusion significant effect Our research used regression analysis to measure occurs is ‘learning’ from other cases through on that country’s Over the past decade, travel freedom has expanded precipitously thanks to the rising number democracy score. of bilateral visa-waiver agreements and unilateral decisions implemented by governments. the effect of a country’s number of visa-free communication and informational networks. destinations on its democracy score and GDP It is possible that increased cross-border In 2006, a citizen, on average, could travel to 58 destinations without needing a visa from per capita, within a global sample. interactions thanks to visa-free travel can the host nation; by 2018, this number had nearly doubled to 107. contribute to this learning process. > 70% We drew the data on visa-waivers from the The percentage Yet despite the important progress made in overall global Research has shown that visa-free access increases the number Henley Passport Index, which compiles the Furthermore, individuals who are exposed to reduction in mobility, there remains a significant ‘global mobility divide’, of travelers to the visa-free destination country. In contrast, number of visa-free destinations for each different cultures may be more tolerant at home. inbound travel that with some passports much more powerful than others. For visa requirements have a negative effect on the number of country and territory, with data going back to There is a long line of research on the prejudice- results from one instance, in 2018, the average European could travel to about inbound travelers. Scholars have pointed out that, “[a]t the 2006. For the economic variables, we relied on reducing effect of inter-group contact. It has country placing 163 destinations without a visa, while the average individual bilateral level, having a requirement on a particular the World Bank, and for the data on democracy, been generally found that contact with ‘out- visa restrictions on from Africa could travel to only about 61 destinations. country is associated with a 70% reduction in inbound travel we relied on the Polity data series, which records groups’ fosters empathy and reduces bias under another from that country”. each country’s democracy score on a scale from certain conditions. Notwithstanding this apparent gap, many developing nations –10 (autocracy) to +10 (democracy). — with the notable exception of some Sub-Saharan countries Beyond tourism, countries such as Japan and Taiwan have Visa-waivers can also facilitate cooperation — have significantly increased their visa-free access over time. recently relaxed travel and residence requirements in the Based on our preliminary analysis, we found between civil society groups and NGOs, A few countries in particular stand out: Albania has increased hope of attracting a skilled workforce. A number of European that the number of visa-free destinations held by including those that specialize in democracy its total number of visa-free destinations more than six-fold nations, among them Portugal and Greece, have set up ‘golden a sender country has a positive and statistically promotion. Finally, visa liberalization can (from 17 in 2006 to 114 in 2018), while countries such as visa’ programs as a way to revitalize their economies through significant, albeit non-linear, effect on that facilitate scientific and academic exchanges. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, China, and Colombia have foreign investment and capital inflow. country’s democracy score (see Figure 4). It has been found that foreign-educated Continued visa liberalization more than quadrupled their visa-free access over time. individuals have a positive impact on a country’s could inject USD 206 billion into the global economy and By minimizing the risk of reverse causality, we democracy, especially when they study in create 5.1 million jobs were able to rule out the possibility that higher democratic countries. levels of democracy are the cause of high levels

of travel freedom, as might generally be assumed. One important avenue for further research is the Sources: disaggregation of visa-free destinations. After Bangwayo-Skeete, Prosper and Indeed, when we tested whether countries’ all, not all destinations are equal. For instance, Ryan W. Skeete. 2017. ‘Who Travels Visa-Free? Insights into visa-free scores were affected by changes in destinations that are more liberal and democratic Tourist Hassle-Free Travel’. Journal of Travel Research 56, their democracy scores, we found no significant may have a larger impact on the sender’s political no. 3 (2017): 407–418. (global average) relationship, which suggested that the causal system than non-democracies do. Elkink, Johan A. 2011. ‘The International Diffusion of

Henley Passport Index score Henley Passport arrow points from visa-free travel to democracy,

Predicted democracy score Predicted Democracy’. Comparative rather than the other way around. Notwithstanding these issues, this study Political Studies 44, no. 12 constitutes an important first step and will, (2011): 1651–1674. Year Lawson, Robert and Saurav When we increased the number of visa-free we hope, precipitate a timely debate about the Roychoudhury. 2016. ‘Do 95% Confidence interval Fitted values Number of visa-free destinations destinations from 0 to 150, a country’s predicted political effects of various visa policies. Travel Visa Requirements Impede Tourist Travel?’ democracy score increased from approximately Journal of Economics and Figure 3: The expansion of global travel freedom on the Henley Passport Figure 4: The effect of travel freedom on sender countries’ democracy levels Finance 40, no. 4 (2016): 817. Index from 2006 to 2018 3.0 to 5.0, with other variables held constant. However, any further increase did not seem to Mau, Steffen et al. 2015. ‘The Global Mobility Divide: How Visa-waivers ease restrictions on international travel by What is the effect of visa liberalization on economy and have a positive effect on democracy. Increases Visa Policies Have Evolved over Time’. Journal of Ethnic granting citizens of certain countries and territories the right politics? It is estimated that the spread of ‘open door’ policies in visa-free score also did not have a significant and Migration Studies 41, no. to travel without prior permission by the host. While some of could potentially contribute to the global economy by effect on a country’s economic indicators, such 8 (2015): 1192–1213. as GDP per capita. Neumayer, Eric. 2010. ‘Visa these waivers are one-sided (that is, one country opening up generating USD 206 billion in additional tourism revenue and Restrictions and Bilateral its borders), others are reciprocal. creating as many as 5.1 million jobs. Travel’. The Professional Geographer 62, no. 2 (2010): 171–181.

30 31 Part 4

Trends in Migration Technology digital identity for REFUGEES AND GLOBAL CITIZENS In our current reality, citizenship is an accident Instead, these initiatives are additional and of birth, defined by borders that were drawn complementary to national citizenship and years ago by people who in most cases knew the state — though the alternative system As a concept, digital by Monique Jeanne Morrow very little (geographically and culturally) they represent may offer the establishment of identity has the Monique Jeanne Morrow is President and Co-Founder of The Humanized Internet, an organization that uses about the regions they were splicing into self- digital identity, registration, and the operation potential to become new technologies to defend the rights of vulnerable people. contained nation-states. of global citizenship independently of a a new basis for particular nation-state. Precisely such a system conferring the status What is identity? You might think at first of the document that holds your name and date The passport that you hold can be a shield is the basis for conceptualizing democratically of global citizenship of birth. Perhaps it is a driver’s license, or the ID card that was issued to you when you and a privilege if it belongs to a wealthy legitimized regulation, as is needed to meet onto the individual. turned 16. It could be the passport that you need to remember before catching a flight. democracy, and it can be a distress and a global challenges effectively. burden if it belongs to a poor or politically Alternatively, you might think that your identity is based on your interests, skills, gender, conflicted country. Global constitutionalism built upon these or ethnicity. You might think of it as being rather fixed and stable and, therefore, you might insights could become a realistic utopia, if it 1,000,000,000 take it for granted. The world is changing faster than ever, and it is coupled with the new opportunities offered The number of seems clear that identity, citizenship, and the by the internet. The task now is to explore people who do not But have you ever lost your ID or had your passport stolen or redrawn, resulting in millions of refugees, ex-prisoners, and nature of our passports should evolve along how technologies can democratize processes have an official while traveling abroad? Suddenly, it becomes impossible to do stateless people. In response, the first refugee travel document, with it. effectively at the global level. identity even the simplest things, such as booking a hotel room, renting also known as the ‘Nansen passport’, was issued by the League a car, or even buying a mobile SIM card to contact your family. of Nations in 1922 (see Figure 5). As a concept, digital identity can extend far Digital identity is foundational to other beyond the limits imposed by a passport. It services. Using the principle of selective Losing a passport does not necessarily make you question The early versions of these passports were signed and included has the potential to become a new basis for disclosure, the individual is able to pair who you are, but it certainly deprives you of the possibility of a photograph, as well as identifying physical details. Some conferring the status of global citizenship onto whatever record they have of themselves with proving it. This is the everyday reality of over 1 billion people critics found this dehumanizing. the individual, independent of their nationality. whatever organization they desire. The given globally who do not have any official identity. organization does not need to know whether It seemed that people struggled with the implicit labeling or A digital identity could allow for participation someone is a ‘refugee’ or not — the individual What gives a piece of paper such power over our lives? How did packaging associated with the passport concept, with some in global processes of democratic discourse is in control of who they are. we arrive at a political and social situation where our worth is countries wanting to dispose of it altogether. and will-formation, which are needed for the Digital self-sovereignty allows regulation of global challenges. Digital self-sovereignty allows the individual to individuals to determine what determined not by who we are but by the type of paper we hold? they want to share about become ‘the center of the universe’, so to speak, themselves and via what method A normative framework for the operation of in terms of determining what they want to share a globally free internet and communication about themselves, and via what method. system is only one of these challenges. Others are climate change, frameworks for sustainable Could the individual enabled with technology international trade, global financial markets, and have digital safe boxes for their documentation, the fight against terrorism and organized crime. which could be digitally notarized in near-real time? Rather than the ‘centralization of data’, Our present democratic systems at the national which is often vulnerable to hacking and/or Technology-enabled individuals and supra-national level are unable to meet these abuse, should we not be thinking about hybrid could one day have digital safe challenges. Even international cooperation fails models, where the ownership of information is boxes for their documentation, with digital notarization to produce the necessary effective regulation. more dispersed? occurring in real time

As Jürgen Habermas explains, the establishment Imagine a world in which everyone is in control of regulatory power beyond the state is not so of their digital identity and, thus, of their future. Figure 5: An early Nansen passport, issued by the League of Nations in the Figure 6: A 1944 passport belonging to a UN official, closely resembling much a challenge to democracy but rather, in Is there a better way? Sources: aftermath of World War One modern-day passports and of itself, a requirement of it. Government of Canada. 2014. ‘History of Passports’. The idea of a worldwide passport as we understand it today The passport seemed on one level to be a step towards Salter, Mark B. 2016. ‘Rights emerged in the aftermath of World War One, particularly after maintaining peace, protecting freedom, and helping refugees, Digital identity and global citizenship — as of Passage: The Passport doors to participation in democratic decision- in International Relations’. the Paris Peace Conference, and as a step taken by the League but there was also the potential for it to be seized as a Business Insider. 10 October 2016. of Nations towards maintaining peace. political opportunity to control movement and immigration. making processes at the global level — do not substitute the citizenship of a state, and nor does World Bank. 2018. ‘ID4D And yet, of course, no one could reverse the idea once it had Data: Global Identification At the end of the war, the world was in disarray: many been introduced. an institutional setting for global regulation Challenge by the Numbers’. substitute the state. Identification for Development governments were toppled or fell, and borders were changed (ID4D).

34 35 Henley & Partners is the global leader in residence and citizenship planning. Each year, hundreds of wealthy individuals and their advisors rely on our expertise and experience in this area. The firm’s highly qualified professionals work together as one team in over 30 offices worldwide.

The concept of residence and citizenship planning was created by Henley & Partners in the 1990s. As globalization has expanded, residence and citizenship have become topics of significant interest among the increasing number of internationally mobile entrepreneurs and investors whom we proudly serve every day.

The firm also runs a leading government advisory practice that has raised more than USD 8 billion in foreign direct investment. Trusted by governments, the firm has been involved in strategic consulting and in the design, set-up, and operation of the world’s most successful residence and citizenship programs.

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