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Concept Note Science Diplomacy and the Prevention of Conflict in The

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Concept Note Science Diplomacy and the Prevention of Conflict in The CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES, Concept Note Science DiplomacyPOLICY ANA and the PreventionLYSIS of AND Conflict in the Belize RESEARCH Guatemala Territorial Dispute The application of science diplomacy, defined as the harnessing of science and technology for the advancement of international relations, is posited as a relevant tool for conflict prevention in what for now may be considered a ‘managed’/non belligerent territorial dispute that exists between Belize and the Republic of Guatemala. In this context there is ample potential for the mitigation of border area tension through encouragement of interconnected multi track approaches at the official/diplomatic level (Track 1), non official (Track II), e.g. trans boundary collaboration between non government organizations, and between communities in mutually beneficial activities (Track III). Since 2000, border area relations between Belize and Guatemala have been subject to an OAS-brokered regime in the form of three successive agreements on confidence building measures (CBMs) to reduce tension and mitigate the potential for conflict. An agreed kilometer wide Adjacency Zone on the east and west side of the Belize/Guatemala border has been maintained to accomplish this. Guatemala maintains a territorial claim to half of Belize’s territory; a dispute inherited by Belize on attaining independence from the United Kingdom in 1981. The Parties are now engaged in preparation for simultaneous national referenda to determine whether to refer the matter for adjudication by the International Court of Justice. In September 2010 the Guatemalan Congress approved that the Government could proceed to hold the referendum there. The Government indicated to the Belize side that agreement on an early date for this was not foreseeable. Neither is this the case for the Government of Belize which projects a 3-4 years time frame for this to be concluded. If a date ▪ ▪ Phone: (501) 822-2620 Email: [email protected] Address: 26 Mahogany St., Belmopan, Belize, C.A is finally agreed by the countries, and the dispute is by the referenda elevated for judgment by the ICJ, it is estimated that the case will occur over a period of 3-4 years thereafter. This minimum 8 year scenario implies a continued reliance over a long period of time on the effectiveness of the CBMs and peacekeeping role of the Organization of American States. This Concept Note outlines an approach to the prevention of conflict and impairment of relations that may occur because of a long festering situation in the border adjacent zone of Belize and Guatemala. caused by persistent encroachments and incursions into Belize by Guatemalans. While there is clearly a need to enhance preventive law enforcement capacities in the border area particularly among the Forest Department, Belize Defence Force and Police Department, the inability to allocate requisite budgetary allocations for this appears not to be surmountable. Additionally this approach on its own does not address the root causes of the situation and could be counterproductive and contributive to the heightening of tension with undesirable consequences. It is important also for the Government of Belize to address the increasingly apparent strategic weakness of the inter-ministerial policy coordination and implementation structure which further dilutes the effectiveness of the government’s response. The situation on the ground is one where Belize’s central and south terrestrial border area with Guatemala; consisting mainly of forest reserves and national parks forming part of the Maya Forest, encompassing geopolitical spaces in Belize, Guatemala, (and Mexico)-see annexed illustrative maps- is under assault by Guatemalan nationals. A mounting number of thousands of inhabitants now reside in more than 60 communities on the Guatemalan side of the border. Landless and poverty stricken, they foray into the hitherto pristine rainforests of Belize, engaging in ‘slash and burn’ illegal farming, illegal logging, illegal extraction of non-timber forest products, looting of archeological sites and illegal hunting. The resulting negative impact on, and implications for vital watersheds, biodiversity and a sustainable ecosystem is nearing catastrophic proportions. The conservation law enforcement response by Belize has proven inadequate and has tended to heighten tension among the communities as they try to eke out a living. Consequently, the requirement for improving the effectiveness of the Agreement on Confidence Building Measures, as a matter of urgency, has intensified as the restive populace reacts against the actions of the Belizean authorities and demand that their own authorities take steps to protect them. 2 The response of the Guatemalan authorities has been to accuse Belize of human rights violations, unsubstantiated after OAS investigation, and of ‘militarizing’ the border area, ‘prejudicing the balance of forces’. The latter relates to a decision by Belize to establish conservation posts in identified ‘hotspots’ in an effort to stem the influx of Guatemalans. It has proven to be an effective deterrent that has become necessary in a situation where Guatemala has failed, mainly for political and resource deficiency reasons, to fulfill its obligations to dissuade its nationals from coming illegally into Belize. It also reflects the sheer magnitude of the socioeconomic problems faced by the burgeoning population of the border adjacent Department of El Peten. It is a situation requiring a sustained level of trans boundary cooperation between the Parties that appears solvable by adoption of scientific, technological and economic measures which can compliment and support diplomatic efforts to ‘keep the peace”. It is a situation requiring a clear, unambiguous commitment from the highest Guatemalan authority to engage in the necessary efforts to dissuade its citizens from coming into Belize in the manner hitherto described. Contextually, it requires the implementation of a comprehensive regional development strategy for the Department of El Peten that squarely addresses the socio economic problems faced by the landless communities there, now further compounded by major land acquisition acts by influential narcotics trafficking elements.. CSSPAR strongly advocates a science-based diplomatic initiative to address this transnational problem which engages the Belizean and Guatemalan Governments in a collaborative effort to promote ecosystems services, projects for reforestation, community education and the stimulation of alternative sustainable economic activities for the afflicted communities. An OAS evaluation of the situation recommends the adoption of a bi-national strategy that accesses funding and technical support through the World Bank’s Global Environmental Fund (GEF), and the United Nations Environmental Programme respectively. The development and implementation of projects for ecosystem protection payments to communities, reforestation and watershed protection, and the reversal of soil degradation are considered quite feasible. CSSPAR also advocates the seeking of project support from the ‘Group of Friends of the Process’ in the short term, and in the medium to long term, through the United Nations Collaborative Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD/ REDD Plus in Belize- REDD Plus in Guatemala). This would require the formulation of a strategy to 3 mobilize carbon sequestration/carbon credit resources in the respective countries for project financing that directly impacts on the situation, based on a reliable assessment of the critical mass required to accomplish this. Clearly the revenue generation potential on the Guatemalan side will be insufficient to raise the level of funding required to achieve this, but the underlying REDD guidelines and operating principles for reforestation and related ecosystem restoration services will be important in framing the parameters for sustainable alternative livelihood interventions to be impactful. The CCAD/GIZ (German) funded carbon measurement pilot project for Belize’s Chiquibul Forest, one of the border zone areas most affected by cross border encroachments, is cited as an important development in the right direction. The project seeks to assess the extent of deforestation and resulting carbon loss attributable to agricultural encroachments and illegal logging. Another pilot project, now in the pre design stage will look at the means for obtaining compensation for improved management of forest reserves. Yet another project line, contemplates engaging communities and sharing benefits, requiring a consultancy to review existing policies ad laws to ascertain what the rights of individuals are to carbon credits generated under REDD schemes. It is anticipated that parallel type actions on the Guatemalan side, concentrating on the east and southern border adjacent areas of El Peten should yield impactful results. It is to be noted that REDD sourced carbon credit activities are already occurring in Guatemala’s northern El Peten area. A critical support role is envisaged for border zone NGOs that are already coordinating their activities in conservation and poverty reduction projects1 . The effectiveness of this type of Track II collaboration is exemplified by the progress achieved in fostering a Track III trans-boundary activity between Guatemalan and Belizean border zone communities to engage in activities in their respective areas to prevent further degradation of the forested watershed of the Mopan
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