FINAL REPORT Water resource plan preliminary risk assessment May 2016 Document history Revision: Revision no. 03 Author/s R Hardie M Stacey N Delbridge A Wealands J Fawcett P Newall G Smith Checked D Blackham Approved R Hardie Distribution: Revision no. 01 Issue date 20 April 2016 Issued to Robert Morden and Lisa Lowe Victorian Government Department of Environment Land Water and Planning Description: Draft report outline Revision no. 02 Issue date 2 May 2016 Issued to Robert Morden, Lisa Lowe and Paul Lloyd Victorian Government Department of Environment Land Water and Planning Description: Draft Final Report Revision no. 03 Issue date 31 May 2016 Issued to Robert Morden, Lisa Lowe and Paul Lloyd Victorian Government Department of Environment Land Water and Planning Description: Final Report Citation: Please cite this document as: Alluvium (2016). Water Resource Plan preliminary risk assessment. Final report by Alluvium Consulting Australia for Victorian Government Department of Environment Land Water and Planning, Melbourne. Acknowledgements: We would like to acknowledge and thank the following for their input in this assessment: DELWP Working Group: Geoff Steendam, Jeremy Kinley, Seker Mariyapillai, Suzanne Witteveen, Judy Hagan, Lisa Lowe, Rob Morden, Simon Baker, Bruce Greenop, Sabrina Teodorowski, Paul Lloyd, Lisa Hocking, Wendy Milsom, Troy Mcdonald, Cathy Lewis, Michael O’Neil and Veronica Lanigan. Members of the Water Resource Plan Risk Assessment Advisory Panel. DELWP Project managers: Lisa Lowe and Robert Morden. Ref: R:\Projects\2015\078_Water_resource_plans_risk_review\1_Deliverables\06_Final Report\P115078_WRP_Risk assessment_final_report_v3g.docx Water Resource Plan preliminary risk assessment i Summary Background Under the provisions of the Murray Darling Basin Plan (the Basin Plan) 2012, Victoria is required to prepare Water Resource Plans (WRPs) for five WRP areas. A preliminary risk assessment has been undertaken to inform the development of these WRPs. The WRP areas are set out in the following figure. The approach adopted for the preliminary risk assessment aligns with international and national standards for risk assessment, with risk being assessed as the product of the likelihood and consequence of a threat impacting on an asset. In accordance with the provisions of the Basin Plan, levels of risk assigned to events and their consequences have been defined in a manner consistent with AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009 Risk management – Principles and guidelines. The approach adopted for risk identification and assessment has been undertaken in accordance with the risk management process set out in ISO 31000 (refer figure below). Water Resource Plan preliminary risk assessment ii A single, common and consistent risk assessment framework has been adopted for Victoria’s five WRP areas. Individual risk assessments have been undertaken for each of the five WRP areas using this common framework. The framework adopted provides a transparent, comprehensive assessment of risk, allowing all risks to be documented and explicitly considered. As such the framework allows for a detailed exploration and analysis of risk and allows any individual risk to be reviewed and updated if and as required. However, the structured nature of the framework also enabled risks to be combined and analysed in themes, enabling summaries of risks across the WRP areas to generated and evaluated. Under this framework, risks have been identified in terms of causes, threats and beneficial uses, whereby the beneficial use of water may be impacted by threats arising from various causes. The risk assessment has focussed on residual risks, taking Victoria’s existing management arrangements for water resources into account prior to assessing levels of risk. This report and this preliminary risk assessment have included: • The context for the risk assessment • The risk assessment including o Risk identification o Risk analysis o Risk evaluation • Limited communications and consultation The report and preliminary risk assessment has not included a process of monitoring and review, nor has it included details of any proposed risk treatment. Risk treatment, monitoring and review and ongoing and expanded communications and consultation will be undertaken through the development of the WRPs. The risk assessment undertaken to date and set out in this report is preliminary and will require finalisation. It is expected that some of the risks identified in this assessment might be addressed prior to 2019, as the WRPs are being prepared. In such instances, the residual risk set out in this preliminary assessment will require reassessment. Further information gathered through more detailed investigations and ongoing consultation, as part of WRP development, may also lead to a reassessment of risk. As a consequence, it is expected that the risk assessment will be updated and finalised in tandem with the finalisation of the WRPs. Water Resource Plan preliminary risk assessment iii Context for the risk assessment The Basin Plan requires that the WRPs be prepared ‘having regard to’ the current and future risks to the condition and availability of water resources in the WRP area (Basin Plan 10.41(1)). Under the provisions of the Basin Plan the risk assessment must consider risks relating to: • Risks to water condition and availability (10.41 (1)) for economic (4.02 (2) (a)), social, cultural indigenous and other public benefit values (4.02 (2) (b)) • Risks that water will not be of a suitable quality for use (4.02 (1) (b)) including salinity (10.41 (2) (d)) • Poor health of water-dependent ecosystems (4.02 (1) (c)) • Risks to meeting environmental watering requirements (identified in Victoria’s long term watering plans) (10.41 (2) (a)) • Risks to groundwater systems (including structural damage and groundwater / surface water connections) (10.20 (1) (a) and (b)) • Risks from interception activities (10.23) The requirements for the risk assessment, described in the Basin Plan, cover a mix of primary causes, threatening processes and implications for beneficial uses. As revealed by the above bullet points, the detailed requirements of the risk assessment are contained within multiple cross referenced provisions of the Basin Plan and can be difficult to follow. However, the key requirement of the Basin Plan is clear, that the risk assessment must identify the current and future risks to the condition and availability of water resources in the WRP area. As a consequence, the preliminary risk assessment not only addresses the availability of water, but the condition of the water. Further, the condition of the water resource includes not only water quality, but the health of the water dependent ecosystems and presence of essential functions of the water resource (Commonwealth Water Act 2007, Part 1 Section 4 Definitions (p20)). The risk assessment must therefore identify and assess risks to the condition of organisms, water-dependent ecosystems and the structural integrity of the water resource. In addressing the risks, the WRPs must describe the risk and the factors that contribute to those risks. Adequate information must be, and has been, captured in the data gathering process to enable the development of a description of the risk and the factors contributing to the risks. The risks and the factors that have contributed to these risks and the assumptions underlying the risk assessment have been set out in this report and an accompanying MS Excel based risk register (Alluvium 2016). The risk assessment has been undertaken based on the regulatory framework, policy and strategies in place in Victoria in 2016. The assessment has also been based on the assumption that the Basin Plan is in place and that the Basin Plan does not in itself represent or impose a threat to the continued availability and condition of the water resources. For the purpose of this risk assessment, and consistent with the requirements of the Basin Plan, the assessment has considered the risks to the condition and continued availability of water resources in the WRP areas over the life of the WRPs (2019- 2029) and beyond. Water Resource Plan preliminary risk assessment iv Risk identification For the purpose of this risk assessment, risk has been considered in terms of causes, threats and beneficial uses whereby a cause (e.g. extreme drought) may result in a threat (e.g. decline in water availability) that impacts on a beneficial use (e.g. consumptive use) of water. As an example, there may be a risk associated with an increased number of farm dams (‘cause’), that leads to a reduction in volume of surface water available (‘threat’), adversely impacting on the environment (‘beneficial use’). Causes, threats, and beneficial uses have been defined as follows: Cause – An event (and specific scenario) that gives rise to or generates a threat. For this risk assessment, the causes are described as the events that lead to the development of a threat. Causes can be changes in levels of development such as increased utilisation of existing rights and entitlements, or events such as climate change or bushfires. Threat – A threat is a deviation from an agreed starting point that may affect beneficial uses. For this risk assessment, a deviation from an agreed starting point includes: • Adverse changes in the volume or pattern of water, and • Continuation or changes in water quality or ecosystems that renders them not fit for purpose. Beneficial use – The use to which water resources are applied including, environmental,