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Border Climate Summary Resumen Del Clima De La Frontera Issued: June 21, 2010 Training on Tropical Cyclones and Their Passage Across the Border by Luis M

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Border Climate Summary Resumen Del Clima De La Frontera Issued: June 21, 2010 Training on Tropical Cyclones and Their Passage Across the Border by Luis M Border Climate Summary Resumen del Clima de la Frontera Issued: June 21, 2010 Training on tropical cyclones and their passage across the border By Luis M. Farfán, Centro de Inves- tigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE), Graciela B. Raga, and Fernando Oropeza, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM) Tropical cyclones are important weath- er systems that develop over several re- gions of the globe. While they occur over relatively warm oceans, the east- ern North Pacific basin is a remark- ably prolific region, where more sys- tems develop per unit area than any other region in the world. Their de- velopment has the potential to affect countries in Central and North Amer- Figure 1. Participants from the spring 2010 training course in La Paz, Baja California ica. In general, the approach of tropi- Sur, Mexico. cal cyclones brings changes in mois- late May until mid-November. The west with adequate knowledge of tropical cy- ture content over relatively large areas coast of Mexico is especially vulnera- clones and major improvements are re- and they become a significant source ble to these systems and, even more, to quired to build capacity in these disci- of rainfall over mountainous terrain. those that move close to the coastline. plines. As part of an international re- Landfall is defined as the passage of the search project, funded by the Inter- On average, 15 tropical cyclones de- system center across the coast. Tropi- American Institute for Global Change velop every season, which extends from cal cyclones that make landfall are like- Research (IAI, http://www.iai.int), ly to be accompanied by strong winds, we designed a series of short cours- coastal storm surges, and heavy rainfall, es based on the current understand- Table of Contents: with the potential for extensive proper- ing of tropical cyclones in the eastern ty damage and flooding in coastal areas. Pacific. Our main goal is to train stu- 1 Training on tropical cyclones and Northwestern Mexico has the highest dents from institutions of higher edu- their passage across the border 3 Flash-Flood Forecasting at Ambos frequency of landfall in the entire east- cation in Mexico, the Caribbean, Cen- Nogales ern Pacific basin. This region includes tral, and South America, where capac- the states of Nayarit, Sinaloa, Sonora, ity building is in the early stages of Recent Conditions and the entire Baja California Penin- development. These 4-5 day courses 6 Temperature sula. Most landfalls are late in the sea- have been offered during the last three 7 Precipitation son, from August through October, and consecutive years in Mexico (La Paz, 8 North American Drought Monitor they tend to occur over Baja Califor- Baja California Sur, in 2008 and 2010 9 Sonoran Reservoir Levels nia, or over Sinaloa on the mainland. and Acapulco, Guerrero, in 2009). Forecasts Training courses Our approach includes a brief review of 10 Streamflow Forecast In comparison to developed countries, climatological features on formation, in- 11 Precipitation Forecast in Latin America there is a lack of me- tensification, and dissipation of tropical 12 ENSO teorology and climatology professionals continued on page 4 The information in this packet is available on the web: http://climas.arizona.edu/outlooks/bcs 2 | Executive Summary Disclaimer–This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. Executive Summary While we make every effort to verify this informa- tion, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. In General – The transition from strong El Niño to neutral conditions in the Pacific CLIMAS disclaims any and all warranties, whether Ocean was accompanied by a transition from a wet winter in our region to a most- expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness ly dry late spring. Regional temperatures were near to below average for the spring for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS months. Large reservoirs in Sonora’s Bavispe-Yaqui river system are at 55-68% of or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, capacity. Summer precipitation forecasts always have high uncertainty; this year’s consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost SMN forecasts indicate near-average precipitation for most of the border region. profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Temperature – Spring season temperatures were mostly below-average across the region. Cool temperatures affected agriculture in California. A May heat wave in Sonora was associated with heat-related illnesses. Precipitation – Spring precipitation was below average in most of the border region. Precipitation Forecast – SMN summer precipitation forecasts show near-average precipitation for most northern Mexico states. NOAA precipitation outlooks show “equal chances” for the border states, indicating a lack of skill or consensus among forecast tools. ENSO – Forecasts show a greater than 55 percent chance of neutral conditions de- veloping during the summer months, and an approximately 40 percent chance of La Niña developing during the rest of 2010. La Niña is associated with lower than av- erage Pacific tropical cyclone development, and below average winter precipitation. Climate Assessment for the Southwest Staff: Aaron Banas, UA Graduate Research Assistant Jason Criscio, UA graduate research assistant Stephanie Doster, Institute of the Environment Associate Editor Luis Farfan, CICESE Research Scientist Gregg Garfin, Institute of the Environment Deputy Director for Outreach David Gochis, NCAR Research Scientist Rebecca Macaulay, Graphic Artist Funding for the Border Climate Summary/Resumen del Clima de la Frontera was provided Andrea Ray, NOAA Research Scientist by Inter American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) and the NOAA Sector Applications Research Program. Border Climate Summary 3 | Executive Summary Flash-Flood Forecasting at Ambos Nogales By Laura M. Norman Scientists and experts from aca- demia and public and private agen- cies from the United States and Mexico are expanding a model de- signed to evaluate the watershed of Nogales, AZ, and Nogales, Sono- ra, and assess flood vulnerability. The project, part of a larger effort to develop an Early Warning Haz- ard System for the region, will incor- porate real-time rainfall data input and compute volumes of runoff, peak flow, and watershed discharge rate. The cities of Nogales, Sonora, and No- gales, Arizona, are located in the Am- bos Nogales Watershed, a north- south oriented area of varied topogra- phy that spans the U.S.-Mexico bor- der. Throughout history, residents in both cities have been affected by flood- ing. Actions to control and regulate Figure 1. A map from the Rainlog Web site (http://rainlog.org) showing the location of the dangerous flows into the urban ar- first precipitation gage online in Nogales, Sonora (May 4). eas of Ambos Nogales are being car- ried out primarily upstream in Mexico. straight to an online rainfall monitoring The model system includes an alarm ca- network initially developed for Nogales, pability to alert the forecaster or oth- The model the scientists are working Arizona (http://rainlog.org, see Figure 1). er designees when the maximum pre- with, KINEROS2 (K2),uses math- dicted stage level exceeds the critical ematical equations to describe wa- Gages will be well-distributed through- stage or stages of the Nogales Wash tershed hydrology processes, such out the upper watershed at Nogales, in Nogales, Sonora, as designated. as infiltration of water into the soil Sonora, to citizens of the communi- layers, erosion, streamflow hydro- ty, drawing on collective local knowl- The K2 model also will be used to eval- graphs, and sediment transport. edge and support to determine the uate future flood hazards across the best locations. Members of the re- watershed using alternative land-use Live data will be streamed into the K2 search team are recruiting residents scenarios as inputs. For example, the model to support the pilot flood warn- who have Internet access and safe loca- primary method proposed for regu- ing system. The model estimates both tions for the rain gages and electron- lating runoff is a series of detention rain gage-derived rainfall and predicts ic equipment to begin the process of basins in Nogales, Sonora; the im- associated runoff. A runoff graph will receiving precipitation data and con- pacts of these are being modeled. show stage of flows and equivalent dis- veying it to the Rainlog web site. charge rate in streams, and indicates the Rain gage data will be used to cali- peak stage (discharge) and time of peak. Currently, one rain gage has been in- brate the K2 model for advanced flood stalled at the Nogales, Sonora Water modeling and help inform land use A rain gage network is being adapted and Wastewater Utility (Figure 2). In- planning for future scenario develop- in Nogales, Sonora, to measure precip- formation from this new station has ment, such as urban growth and de- itation and provide electronically re- been displayed online since April 5. velopment. Rain gage data also will be corded precipitation measurements continued on page 5 Border Climate Summary 4 | Articles Training on tropical cyclones, continued cyclones. Key aspects are the stages of formation and intensification, with par- ticular emphasis on the development off the west coast of Mexico during the last decade. More advanced topics in- clude lectures on thermodynamic mod- els, air-sea interactions, oceanic respons- es, long-term variability, climate-related predictions, and geology-related tech- niques to study coastal impacts dur- ing the last 100-500 years. Additionally, practical sessions are offered to analyze case studies of tropical cyclone approach and landfall over northwestern Mexi- co. During these sessions, students ap- ply a historical database, issued by the United States National Hurricane Cen- ter (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov), to ana- Figure 2.
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