Stocking Rates and Varying Social-Ecological Conditions on the Rangelands of Inner Mongolia, China

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Stocking Rates and Varying Social-Ecological Conditions on the Rangelands of Inner Mongolia, China Stocking Rates and Varying Social-Ecological Conditions on the Rangelands of Inner Mongolia, China David Crook Department of Geography McGill University, Montreal Submitted August 2017 A Thesis Submitted to McGill University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements of the Degree of Master of Arts © David Crook 2017 Table of Contents Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... 2 Résumé ........................................................................................................................................... 3 Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................................... 5 Preface ............................................................................................................................................ 7 Chapter 1: Introduction ............................................................................................................... 9 1.1 Policy Context ......................................................................................................................................... 9 1.2 Theoretical Background ........................................................................................................................ 10 1.3 Thesis Outline and Fieldwork ............................................................................................................... 13 Chapter 2 : A Review of Literature Relating to Ovegrazing and Grazing Management Strategies ...................................................................................................................................... 15 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 15 2.2 The Concept of Overgrazing: Definitions and Debates ........................................................................ 16 2.3 Herd Maximization among Pastoralists ................................................................................................ 17 2.4 Self-organization among Resource Users ............................................................................................. 18 2.5 Livelihood Pressures and Ecological Degradation ............................................................................... 19 2.6 Land Tenure: Definitions and Evaluation ............................................................................................. 20 2.7 Access to Credit and Environmental Sustainability .............................................................................. 22 2.8 Critical views of overgrazing discourse ................................................................................................ 24 2.9 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................... 26 Chapter 3: Effect of Environmental Shocks on Stocking Rates in Inner Mongolia ............. 28 3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 28 3.2 Methods................................................................................................................................................. 32 3.3 Results ................................................................................................................................................... 40 3.4 Discussion ............................................................................................................................................. 45 3.5 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................ 54 Appendix 1 – Stocking rates and environmental shock occurrence across counties .................................. 56 Appendix 2 – Stata output of PCA for asset index ..................................................................................... 57 Chapter 4: A choice model of incentive strategies for reducing overgrazing Inner Mongolia’s rangelands................................................................................................................ 59 4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 59 4.2 Study Site and Experimental Design .................................................................................................... 62 4.3 Results ................................................................................................................................................... 72 4.4 Discussion ............................................................................................................................................. 78 4.5 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................ 81 Chapter 5 - Thesis Conclusions ................................................................................................. 82 References .................................................................................................................................... 85 1 Abstract Overgrazing is a serious problem in northern China’s Inner Mongolia region. The government has attempted to reduce overgrazing by mandating maximum livestock stocking densities. These stocking limits are enforced using a combination of cash subsidies for herders who abide by them and fines for those who don’t. However, the success of these policies has been mixed, and overgrazing has continued. Herd sizes in Inner Mongolia are influenced by a variety of socio-economic, political and environmental conditions. Environmental shocks, lack of credit and insecure land tenure are all factors that push herders toward herd maximization as a short-term survival strategy rather than investing in long-term sustainable grazing. In this thesis, I performed two analyses to gain insights into how herders’ stocking choices are influenced by environmental and policy conditions. First, I performed a difference- in-differences analysis to test for a relationship between stocking rates and the frequency of environmental shocks. I found that while droughts were associated with higher stocking rates, snowstorms were associated with lower stocking rates. For my second analysis, I performed a choice experiment to compare how variations in different policy incentives influence herders’ willingness to keep lower stocking rates. I found that lengthening land tenure contracts had the greatest effect on herders’ choices. These findings have important implications for future policy formulation in Inner Mongolia. The varying effects of different environmental shocks on stocking rates means that stocking regulations may need to vary depending on which type of shock predominates. Herders’ interest in land tenure reform suggests that longer land tenure contracts may make a major improvement in tackling overgrazing. Together, these findings demonstrate that mitigating overgrazing requires understanding and addressing herders’ vulnerabilities to both environmental and socio-economic uncertainties. 2 Résumé Le surpâturage constitue un grave problème au sein des prairies de la Mongolie Intérieure en Chine septentrionale. Le gouvernement a tenté d’y réduire le surpâturage en imposant des taux d’occupation maximums du bétail sur les terres. Ces limites sont mises en œuvre par l’entremise d’une combinaison de subventions financières pour les éleveurs qui les respectent, et d’amendes pour ceux qui y dérogent. Cependant, le succès des politiques appliquées est mitigé et le surpâturage se poursuit. En Mongolie Intérieure, la taille des troupeaux est influencée par une grande variété de conditions socio-économiques, politiques et environnementales. Les chocs environnementaux, un manque d’accès au crédit et l’insécurité associée au régime foncier sont parmi les facteurs qui poussent les éleveurs à maximiser la taille de leurs troupeaux comme stratégie de survie, au lieu d’investir dans une stratégie de pâturage durable. Dans ce mémoire, j’ai effectuée deux analyses pour mieux comprendre comment les choix des éleveurs concernant la taille de leurs troupeaux sont influencés par les conditions environnementales et les politiques gouvernementales. J’ai d’abord employé la méthode des doubles différences afin de déterminer s’il y a une relation entre la fréquence des chocs environnementaux et le taux d’occupation. J’ai constaté que les sècheresses sont associées à des taux d’occupation élevés, tandis que les tempêtes de neige sont associées à des taux d’occupation plus faibles. Pour ma deuxième analyse j’ai appliqué la méthode d’expérimentation des choix pour comparer les effets des différentes politiques incitatives sur la volonté des éleveurs de réduire leurs taux d’occupation. J’ai découvert que la prolongation des contrats fonciers est le type d’incitatif ayant le plus grand effet sur les choix des éleveurs. Ces constatations ont des implications importantes pour la formulation de futures politiques en Mongolie Intérieure. Les effets variables des différents types de chocs environnementaux sur le taux d’occupation 3 signifient qu’il sera peut-être nécessaire de faire varier les réglementations
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