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Taiwan Outlook 03 December 2013 Asia Pacific/Taiwan Equity Research Financials (Financials (Asia)) Taiwan Market Strategy Research Analysts SECTOR FORECAST Chung Hsu, CFA 886 2 2715 6362 [email protected] Taiwan outlook: Global health propels 2014 Michelle Chou, CFA 886 2 2715 6363 [email protected] Figure 1: US PMI leads consensus by five months with a 70% correlation (index) (NT$) Taiwan Research Team US PMI Consensus profit estimates for TWSE (RHS) 65 30 Randy Abrams, CFA Head of Taiwan Research, Semiconductors 60 25 Manish Nigam 55 20 Head of NJA Technology 50 Chung Hsu, CFA 15 Strategy / Financial 45 10 Pauline Chen 40 Tech component / Handset 5 Thompson Wu 35 Tech/Hardware 30 0 Jerry Su Jul-11 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jan-06 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Display / LED / Automation Jan-03 Jeremy Chen Source: Datastream, CEIC, Credit Suisse research Non-tech Christiaan Tuntono ■ Profit growth of 14% in 2014E. We estimate that Taiwan will see another Economist 14% profit growth in 2014 after recording 33% growth in 2013 (or 10.5% ex- Chate Benchavitvilai petrochem and TFT), driven by a moderate acceleration in developed Telecom Timothy Ross market (DM) growth, further normalising non-tech profit and a much smaller Shipping drag from consumer tech after significant cuts in weighting and expectation. The strong correlation (70-80%) between US PMI and Taiwan consensus Derrick Yang Component/ handset / Display / LED earnings revisions trend should be supportive, as the global macroeconomic Michelle Chou, CFA backdrop stays in a sweet spot of moderate growth acceleration with a Strategy / Financial continued easing in monetary policy. Davin Wu Shipping ■ Favourable shift in government's policy focus. Domestically, we expect a shift in the government’s policy focus towards stimulus after having focused Contribution by on reforms over the past two years (i.e., tax reform on capital gains/luxury Nickie Yue Irene Wu tax, pension reform and the removal of subsidies on electricity/gasoline) as Chris Shieh the KMT party will try to revive its low approval rating ahead of the upcoming elections. However, new cross-strait progress is likely to be slower than expected, especially with the approval of service agreements potentially delayed until late 2Q-3Q14. ■ Stock calls. We set our year-end TAIEX target at 9,000, based on a ten-year average P/B of 1.7x with the market’s ROE recovering towards its long-term average of 11.7%. Stock/sector preference: we continue to like upstream tech that should see stronger and earlier benefits from improving DM growth (TSMC/ASE/Mediatek); stocks that are still in the early part of their up-cycle or with a secular growth profile (CTBC/St Shine/EVA Air); and select tech hardware names with positive drivers in 2014 (Hon Hai and Catcher). DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND THE STATUS OF NON US ANALYSTS. FOR OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, visit https://rave.credit-suisse.com/disclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683 US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 03 December 2013 Focus charts Figure 2: Improving US job market—US non-farm payrolls' Figure 3: … and US PMI has reached its highest level 3 mma has consistently stayed above 200,000 … since 2Q11 US Purchasing Managers' Index 400 latest 202k 65 200 60 0 -200 55 -400 farm payrollsfarm (thousands) - 50 -600 US US non 45 -800 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 40 US non-farm payrolls (3mma) Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Source: DataStream Source: CEIC, Credit Suisse Research Figure 4: CS economics team expects global GDP growth Figure 5: Taiwan GDP growth tends to surprise positively to accelerate from 2.7% in 2Q13 to 3.50-3.75% in 4Q14 when DM growth outperforms EM growth and vice versa (index) (%) Consensus GDP growth vs actual DM PMI (RHS) EM PMI (RHS) 6 5.3 6% 65 5.1 5.2 5.2 5 4.7 4.7 4% 60 3.8 3.9 3.9 4 3.7 3.2 2% 2.8 2.7 2.9 55 3 2.3 0% 2 50 -2% 1 45 - -4% (1) -0.4 -6% 40 2002 2006 2010 2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 2014E 2015E 2013E Source: IMF, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Thomson Reuters DataStream, Haver Analytics®, Credit Suisse Figure 6: Consensus 2014 growth estimate by sub-sector Figure 7: Consumer tech’s (PC hardware, handsets and —financials, telecoms to see lowest growth (ex-TFT-LCD) components) earnings weighting has declined notably 314% Consensus estimates: 2014E earnings growth Aggregate consumer electronics profits as % of total CS coverage 50% 40% 38% 45% 40% 35% 40% 29% 30% 25% 24% 22% 40% 20% 18% 33% 35% 14% 32% 20% 11% 11% 10% 35% 10% 4% 2% 30% 25% 26% 0% 24% 23% -10% 25% 21% -20% 20% -30% 15% -40% -31% 10% LED 5% Foundry Telecom Backend Materials TFT LCD IC design Handsets Financials Consumer Healthcare 0% Automation Developers Transportation Tech Hardware Petrochemicals 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 E 2014 E Tech Components Source: DataStream, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates Taiwan Market Strategy 2 03 December 2013 Global health propels 2014 We believe Taiwan is well positioned to benefit from a healthy global macroeconomic Taiwan should benefit from backdrop with earnings likely growing another 14% in 2014E after 33% profit growth in the healthy global 2013 (10.5% ex-TFT and petrochemicals). Earnings growth should be supported by better macroeconomic backdrop export growth in 2014E (4.3% vs 2.7% in 2013), continued normalising of non-tech profits with consensus' earnings (i.e. transportation and materials) and a much smaller drag from consumer tech after revisions trend for Taiwan significant reductions in both weightings and expectations for handsets, PC hardware and having a 70%-plus tech component sectors over the past two years. correlation to DM growth Historically, consensus' earnings revisions trend for Taiwan shows a 70%-plus correlation to developed market growth. Therefore, with the global macroeconomic backdrop likely staying in a sweet spot of moderate growth acceleration and a continued easing in monetary policy, consensus earnings revisions trend should stay supportive in 2014. A shift in government's policy focus: From reform to stimulus Domestically, we expect the government's policy to turn more supportive after much focus More stimulus policies from on reforms in the past two years (i.e., tax reform by introducing luxury and capital gains the government, i.e., tax, SOE reform by removing part of government subsidies on electricity/gasoline prices, facilitating private sector and pension reform by reducing benefits and extending the retirement age), as the KMT investments in public strives to revive its low approval rating ahead of the upcoming elections. We expect the infrastructure, setting up government's stimulus policies to focus on: (1) facilitating private sector investments in free trade zones and signing public infrastructure and/or the government securitising some existing projects to raise more free trade agreements funds for new projects; (2) setting up free trade zones to induce greater private to support domestic fund investments; and (3) signing more free trade agreements with trading partners. However, flows we do expect limited new cross-strait progress as both sides wait for the service agreement to be approved by the legislature, which could be delayed until the next legislative session in May-June 2014. This shift in the government's policy focus could help reverse the negative domestic fund flows in 2013 as both local institutions and government funds were net sellers while retail long margins remained depressed at less than NT$200 bn, a level only sustained and seen during crises (i.e., the tech bubble in 2000, SARS in 2003 and the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-09). Sector preference and stock picks We set our year-end 2014 index target at 9,000 (implies 7.1% potential upside) and is Our top picks are: TSMC, based on a ten-year average forward P/B of 1.7x (implies 15.6x P/E) with the market's ASE, Mediatek, CBTC, St. ROE recovering towards its long-term average of 11.7% (from 10.7% in 2013). Our stock Shine, Eva Air, Hon Hai and preferences are: Catcher (1) Upstream tech that continues to see earlier and stronger benefits from improving DM growth—TSMC (higher volumes, improving mix and return of cash flow), ASE (better capex control, improving margins from falling material costs and a new driver from fingerprint sensor) and Mediatek (high growth in EM smartphones). (2) Stocks still in the early part of their up-cycle or with a secular growth profile such as CTBC Financial (better profit growth with the stock priced for limited incremental profits from newly acquired businesses), St Shine (market share gains with new capacity online in 1Q14) and EVA Air (a low valuation with leverage to growing regional traffic, PRC inbound demand and TW outbound traffic to Japan).
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