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Biased Estimates in Depressive Realism: Effects of Mood, Motivation, Valence, Response Frequency and Outcome Density

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Biased Estimates in Depressive Realism: Effects of Mood, Motivation, Valence, Response Frequency and Outcome Density BIASED ESTIMATES IN DEPRESSIVE REALISM: EFFECTS OF MOOD, MOTIVATION, VALENCE, RESPONSE FREQUENCY AND OUTCOME DENSITY Neil T. Hanley Department of Psychology McGill University, Montreal July, 2005 A thesis submitted to McGill University in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Doctorate ofPhilosophy in Psychology. © Neil T. Hanley, 2005 Library and Bibliothèque et 1+1 Archives Canada Archives Canada Published Heritage Direction du Branch Patrimoine de l'édition 395 Wellington Street 395, rue Wellington Ottawa ON K1A ON4 Ottawa ON K1A ON4 Canada Canada Your file Votre référence ISBN: 978-0-494-25163-8 Our file Notre référence ISBN: 978-0-494-25163-8 NOTICE: AVIS: The author has granted a non­ L'auteur a accordé une licence non exclusive exclusive license allowing Library permettant à la Bibliothèque et Archives and Archives Canada to reproduce, Canada de reproduire, publier, archiver, publish, archive, preserve, conserve, sauvegarder, conserver, transmettre au public communicate to the public by par télécommunication ou par l'Internet, prêter, telecommunication or on the Internet, distribuer et vendre des thèses partout dans loan, distribute and sell theses le monde, à des fins commerciales ou autres, worldwide, for commercial or non­ sur support microforme, papier, électronique commercial purposes, in microform, et/ou autres formats. paper, electronic and/or any other formats. The author retains copyright L'auteur conserve la propriété du droit d'auteur ownership and moral rights in et des droits moraux qui protège cette thèse. this thesis. Neither the thesis Ni la thèse ni des extraits substantiels de nor substantial extracts from it celle-ci ne doivent être imprimés ou autrement may be printed or otherwise reproduits sans son autorisation. reproduced without the author's permission. ln compliance with the Canadian Conformément à la loi canadienne Privacy Act some supporting sur la protection de la vie privée, forms may have been removed quelques formulaires secondaires from this thesis. ont été enlevés de cette thèse. While these forms may be included Bien que ces formulaires in the document page cou nt, aient inclus dans la pagination, their removal does not represent il n'y aura aucun contenu manquant. any loss of content from the thesis. ••• Canada TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables and Figures .................................................................................. iii Acknowledgments .............................................................................................. iv Abstract. ................................................... ;......................................................... vi Résumé ............................................................................................................. vii Introduction.......................................................................................................... 1 Contingency .................................................................................................... 6 Outcome Density Bias ..................................................................................... 8 DifferentiaI Influence of Trial Types ............................................................. 10 The Role of Expectations and Prior Experience ............................................. 14 Proportion of Trials With a Response ............................................................ 17 Positive Only Judgment Scales - Corralling Participants into Overestimation 20 Differences in Real Zero ............................................................................... 22 Zero Contingencies ....................................................................................... 23 Measures of Accuracy ................................................................................... 24 Self-Serving Motivational Bias Hypothesis and Motivation for Accuracy ...... 25 Present Set of Experiments ............................................................................ 28 Experiment 1 - Mood by Motivation ................................................................ 29 Method ............................................................................................................... 31 Participants ................................................................................................... 31 Apparatus and Materials ................................................................................ 34 Procedure ...................................................................................................... 36 Results ............................................................................................................... 3T Note On The Statistics Reported .................................................................... 37 Actual Contingencies (~p) ............................................................................ 38 Number of Responses Per Task ..................................................................... 38 Accuracy (deviation of estimates from actual ~p) .......................................... 41 Correlations of Estimates and Trial Events .................................................... 48 Discussion .......................................................................................................... 51 Disconfirmation of Self-Serving Motivational Bias Predictions ..................... 51 Role of Response Frequency ......................................................................... 55 Experiment 2 - Response Frequencies .............................................................. 56 Method ............................................................................................................... 58 Participants ................................................................................................... 58 Apparatus and Materials ................................................................................ 59 Procedure ...................................................................................................... 61 Results ............................................................................................................... 62 Actual Contingencies (~p) ............................................................................ 62 Number of Responses Per Task ..................................................................... 62 Accuracy ....................................................................................................... 65 Discussion .......................................................................................................... 69 Experiment 3 -Mood by Valence ...................................................................... 76 Method ............................................................................................................... 77 Participants ................................................................................................... 77 Apparatus and Materials ................................................................................ 79 Procedure ...................................................................................................... 81 Results ............................................................................................................... 81 Actual Contingencies (~p) ............................................................................ 81 Number of Responses Per Task ..................................................................... 81 Accuracy ....................................................................................................... 84 Correlation ofEstimates and Trial Events ...................................................... 92 Discussion ..................................................................................................... 96 General Discussion ............................................................................................. 99 Depressive Realism or Expectation-Related Processing Bias? ....................... 99 Positive and Negative Scale .......................................................................... 110 Order ............................................................................................................ 111 Outcome Density in Other Contingencies ..................................................... 113 Biased But More Accurate? .......................................................................... 113 Conclusion ................................................................................................... 114 Statement of Original Contribution ................................................................... 118 References ....................................................................................................... 121 Appendix A - Instructions for Experiment 1, Low Motivation Condition .......... 130 Appendix B - Instructions for Experiment 1, High Motivation Condition ......... 131 Appendix C - Text Instructions in the Program ................................................. 132 Appendix D - Instructions for Experiment 2, High Response Condition ........... 133 Appendix E - Instructions for Experiment 2, Low Response Condition ............ 134 Appendix F - Instructions for Experiment 3 ..................................................... 135 Appendix G _ Consent Form ............................................................................ 136 Appendix H - Ethics Approval Documents .....................................................
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