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I. Financial Markets and Macroeconomic Environment

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I. Financial Markets and Macroeconomic Environment I. Financial markets and macroeconomic environment The global economic outlook has improved, and financial market conditions with it. International trade is one of the main drivers of output growth. Uncertainty about the immediate future has escalated so far in 2010, however, and concerns about public sector finances are as pressing as concerns about the private sector. Conditions have improved at a varying pace from country to country, and recovery is fragile. The flexibility of the Icelandic economy has facilitated adjustment to the crisis. Unemployment has risen less than might have been supposed, and private consumption has proven stronger. On the other hand, investment in energy-intensive industry has been delayed. The outlook is for the contraction to come to a close as 2010 progresses, and for gradual recovery to ensue. But the financial conditions of households and businesses will continue to be difficult. The business environment is characterised by limited trust, and markets are less efficient than before. The Central Bank has worked together with financial institutions in order to maintain the operability of the interbank króna market, the interbank foreign exchange market, and the bond market. Rules have been set to govern the markets’ activities, 1 and all of them have market makers. 2 0 1 FINANCIAL 0 STABILITY 1.1. Global financial environment Global economic outlook is brighter The outlook is for global output growth in 2010 after a contrac- tion of half a percentage point in 2009.1 Concurrent with improved economic prospects, financial system risk has diminished since a year Chart I-1 ago. In spite of volatility in eqyity markets and currency exchange Real GDP growth rates, the bond and money markets are recovering, and estimated % recovery ratios on loan portfolios and corporate securities have risen. 10 A brighter outlook and rising bond prices reduce the need for write- 8 6 offs among owners that mark to market, yet the need for write-offs 4 remains substantial. As of year-end 2009, banks in the US and Europe 2 had written off some 1,500 billion US dollars since mid-2007. The 0 -2 International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes banks will have to write -4 off an additional 800 billion dollars in 2010. -6 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 Fragile recovery Euro area World Conditions vary from country to country, however, and recovery is United Kingdom fragile. Emerging market economies were the first to rally. GDP rose Asia and Pacific United States in Asia early in 2009, and the US followed suit in the third quarter Africa of 2009. The incentives for carry trade are recovering. Forecasts Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook (apríl 2010). of robust GDP growth and rising asset prices in emerging markets, together with low interest rates in major industrial countries, have catalysed the flow of capital to Asia and Latin American countries. Recovery is slow in the euro area. GDP growth was measured in the third quarter of 2009 but growth remains slight and varies widely from country to country. The debt of many countries in Europe has sapped investors’ confidence, and unrest has mounted in the European financial markets during the spring of 2010. 1. International Monetary Fund, Global Financial Stability Review, April 2010. FINANCIAL MATKETS AND MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT Conditions vary not only between economies, but also within countries. In various countries there are still financial institutions that Chart I-2 General Government Gross Financial Liabilities have not been restructured. The hardships of individual banks that have depended entirely on state support will probably come to the % of GDP 160 fore when governments and central banks begin to unwind direct 140 support measures and declarations of guarantee. 120 100 80 Displacement of risk 60 Even though risk appears to be less pronounced than before, it has, 40 20 to some extent, merely been shifted elsewhere. Many governments 0 have taken on massive obligations in order to safeguard their banking ‘95 ‘97 ‘99 ‘01 ‘03 ‘05 ‘07 ‘09 ‘11 system and rescue their financial system. As a result, there is consid- Iceland United Kingdom Germany Greece erable uncertainty about their balance sheets in the long run. Such United States Ireland uncertainty about a sovereign’s long-term outlook could surface in Total OECD Portugal higher short-term market financing costs. Countries that are heavily 2 Source: OECD. dependent on foreign demand for their government bonds and have significant re-financing needs in the near future are most vulnerable. The debt situation in many European countries and the uncer- Chart I-3 tainty about their position and prospects has caused growing unrest Yield on 10 year government bonds in the financial markets over the past several weeks, with Greece at Daily figures 1 June 2009 - 31 May 2010 centre stage because of its extraordinarily difficult position. In May, % FINANCIAL2 0 1 0 STABILITY 14 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the EU approved a loan 12 facility of 110 billion euros to assist Greece. Later in the month, the EU 10 established a special facility to prevent contagion within the euro area. 8 6 In an unprecedented move, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided 4 to conduct interventions in the euro area public and private debt 2 securities markets with the objective of addressing the malfunction- 0 2009 2010 ing of securities market segments. The ECB also, in collaboration with other central banks, reinstated swap agreements with the US Federal Noeway USA Germany Spain Reserve Bank in order to boost access to US dollars. UK Portugal Contagion could surface in investors’ assessment of increased Greece Ireland country risk, downgrades of banks’ credit ratings due to higher sov- Source: Reuters. ereign financing costs, and losses due to falling prices on government bond portfolios. It could also be reflected in the value of jointly held currencies such as the euro, reduced credibility of governments’ decla- Chart I-4 rations of guarantee, and reduced collateral value of bond portfolios. Output growth forecasts for 2010 The columns shows month of forecast Consequently, the handling of public sector finances and the resolu- tion of individual countries’ debt problems will be important for global Year-on-year change (%) 3.5 financial stability. 3.0 2.5 Restructuring in a new regulatory framework 2.0 Until now, the process of restructuring and downsizing banks’ bal- 1.5 1.0 ance sheets has focused largely on revaluation of assets. The value of 0.5 asset portfolios has fallen and affected banks’ operations and equity. 0.0 Evrusvæðið Bretland Bandaríkin Japan But risk can also be found on the liabilities side of the balance sheet. Under the current circumstances, re-financing risk is considerable. Risk September 2009, forecast for 2010 November 2009, forecast for 2010 aversion predominates, sovereigns as well as financial undertakings January 2010, forecast for 2011 are faced with re-financing needs, and banks are being required to March 2010, forecast for 2011 hold more and better-quality equity. May2010, forecast for 2011 Financial supervisors are preparing new, more stringent rules Source: Consensus Forecasts. concerning financial undertakings’ equity and their liquidity and risk FINANCIAL MATKETS AND MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT management. Financial undertakings are under extreme pressure to reorganise their operations and modify their business model, trim Chart I-5 down their balance sheets, acquire increased equity, and improve the World trade quality of their equity. Year-on-year change (%) Experience of standardised capital adequacy requirements has 15 already been gained, and considerable work has been devoted to 10 improving capital adequacy rules. A newer development, however, is 5 the Basel Committee’s preparation of a draft of detailed liquidity rules 0 governing financial undertakings with cross-border operations.2 -5 -10 -15 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 1.2. Global financial encironment Iceland's main trading partners1 World trade2 Macroeconomic conditions for financial stability 1. Imports of goods and services in Iceland's main trading partners. 2. Arithmetic average of merchandise import and export volumes in OECD countries and the largest non-OECD countries. Global recovery underway, but substantial uncertainty persists Sources: OECD, Central Bank of Iceland. 3 regarding the future 2 0 1 F 0 J Á R M Á L A S T Ö Ð U G L E I K I The macroeconomic conditions for financial stability in Iceland are determined not only by the domestic economic situation, but also by the extent and pace of the economic recovery in Iceland’s main Chart I-6 trading partner countries. In general, the external conditions of the Fiscal and current account deficit in various countries in the euro area 2009 Icelandic economy have improved since Financial Stability 2009 was published. The global recovery has gained momentum, and the % of GDP 0 contraction peaked in mid-2009 in most of Iceland’s trading partner -2 countries. The IMF forecast from April assumes that GDP growth in -4 Iceland’s main trading partner countries will be about 0.6 percentage -6 points higher than the Fund’s October 2009 forecast, or about 1.3%. -8 Global trade took a sharp turn for the better towards the end of -10 2009 and remains the main driver of world output growth. The IMF -12 -14 projects that, after a contraction of over 12% last year, global trade Euro Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Spain area will increase by nearly 6% in 2010. The Fund also projects a 4% increase in imports among Iceland’s chief trading partners, which is Current account deficit Fiscal deficit good news for Icelandic export companies. Source: Global Insight. Risks in the global economy are numerous, however, and have become more pronounced in the past few months.
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