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AB Inbev/Ambev 14Th June 2017 the Party Will Begin Food & Beverages Fair Value EUR128 Vs

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AB Inbev/Ambev 14Th June 2017 the Party Will Begin Food & Beverages Fair Value EUR128 Vs INDEPENDENT RESEARCH UPDATE AB InBev/Ambev 14th June 2017 The Party Will Begin Food & Beverages Fair Value EUR128 vs. EUR115 (price EUR101.55) BUY Bloomberg ABI BB In this note, we focus on Ambev/AB InBev's Brazilian operations for Reuters ABI.BR which we expect a very strong rebound in revenue and profitability 12-month High / Low (EUR) 118.8 / 93.8 Market capitalisation (EURm) 171,949 after a disappointing 2016 and first half 2017. The market's longer- Enterprise Value (BG estimates EURm) 301,497 term prospects also remain favourable. This leads us to upgrade our Avg. 6m daily volume ('000 shares) 1,411 earnings forecasts such that we are now 12% ahead of the consensus Free Float 39.3% 3y EPS CAGR 31.2% for 2019 operating profit for Ambev and 10% for AB InBev. We have Gearing (12/16) 119% lifted our FV for the company to EUR128 from EUR115. Dividend yield (12/17e) 2.03% Brazil to bounce back strongly: As the macro-economic environment is YE December 12/16 12/17e 12/18e 12/19e Revenue (USDm) 45,517 56,913 60,210 63,319 improving, the beer market should return to volume and price growth. EBIT (USDm) 13,276 18,032 20,565 22,843 Furthermore, the locked-in USD (the company hedges its USD costs 1 Basic EPS (USD) 0.71 3.47 4.86 5.99 year in advance) provides high visibility that in the second half, forex will Diluted EPS (USD) 2.77 4.40 5.40 6.25 EV/Sales 7.48x 5.92x 5.56x 5.24x become a tailwind for COGS and we expect a decrease in costs. With EV/EBITDA 20.3x 15.3x 13.6x 12.2x revenue up and costs down, we believe that EBIT margin should EV/EBIT 25.7x 18.7x 16.3x 14.5x rebound strongly from 36.4% in 2016 to 42.0% in 2018. P/E 41.1x 25.8x 21.0x 18.2x ROCE 7.1 6.9 7.8 8.7 Significant volume upside in Brazil: Affordability is still an important 129.0 factor as it takes an average Brazilian 20 minutes to earn a pint of beer. 124.0 As disposable income is set to grow, we expect further growth in beer 119.0 consumption. This should be even more pronounced in the poorer 114.0 109.0 Northern regions. Overall, we estimate that Brazilian beer consumption 104.0 per head could increase to 80 litres from 65 litres in 2016. 99.0 94.0 89.0 Premiumisation to continue: high-end beers are a faster growing and 11/12/15 11/03/16 11/06/16 11/09/16 11/12/16 11/03/17 11/06/17 ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SXX EUROPE 600 more profitable segment already accounting for 12% of Brazilian volumes but could more than double over time. In the more mature markets, high-end beers are 30-40% of the market. Brazilian beer market moving towards a duopoly: after the acquisition of Kirin Brazil, Heineken will hold a 19% share of the market behind Ambev and could well be interested in the no. 3 player Petropolis (11%) that SABMiller was about to buy before it got itself bid for. Consolidation is good for the pricing environment. Analyst: Sector Analyst Team: Nikolaas Faes Loïc Morvan 33(0) 6 11 12 44 44 Antoine Parison [email protected] Virginie Roumage Cédric Rossi r r AB InBev Income Statement (USDm) 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e Revenues 47,063 43,604 45,517 56,913 60,210 63,319 Change (%) 9.0% -7.3% 4.4% 25.0% 5.8% 5.2% Adjusted EBITDA 18,663 16,921 16,753 22,054 24,714 27,119 EBIT 15,308 13,768 13,276 18,032 20,565 22,843 Change (%) 7.8% -10.1% -3.6% 35.8% 14.0% 11.1% Financial results (1,319) (1,453) (8,564) (6,544) (5,297) (4,769) Pre-Tax profits 13,989 12,315 4,712 11,488 15,268 18,073 Exceptionals (197) 136 (394) (300) (300) 0.0 Tax (2,499) (2,592) (1,613) (2,685) (3,592) (4,338) Profits from associates 9.0 10.0 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Minority interests (2,086) (1,594) (1,528) (1,629) (1,741) (1,869) Net profit 9,216 8,275 1,193 6,874 9,635 11,867 Restated net profit 8,865 8,513 4,853 8,721 10,710 12,387 Change (%) 11.7% -4.0% -43.0% 79.7% 22.8% 15.7% Cash Flow Statement (USDm) Operating cash flows 17,873 16,277 15,871 21,754 24,414 27,119 Change in working capital 815 1,337 173 (3,573) 1,360 1,379 Capex, net (4,172) (4,135) (4,649) (3,687) (4,952) (5,029) Financial investments, net (6,888) (101) (55,428) 17,000 0.0 0.0 Dividends (7,400) (7,966) (8,450) (8,331) (9,807) (11,077) Other (4,876) (6,734) (8,697) (9,229) (8,889) (9,107) Net debt 42,245 42,392 94,158 97,225 95,099 91,813 Free Cash flow 9,557 7,740 2,698 5,264 11,934 14,362 Balance Sheet (USDm) Tangible fixed assets 20,263 18,952 27,522 27,640 28,894 30,099 Intangibles assets 100,681 94,738 181,101 180,649 180,197 179,745 Cash & equivalents 8,877 7,074 28,585 11,585 11,585 11,585 current assets 11,551 12,476 13,407 13,659 13,848 13,930 Company description Other assets 1,178 1,395 5,595 5,595 5,595 5,595 Anheuser-Busch InBev is the largest Total assets 142,550 134,635 256,210 239,128 240,120 240,954 brewer in the world selling 518m hl (a L & ST Debt 51,122 49,466 122,743 108,810 106,684 103,398 27% global market share) of beer and Others liabilities 41,456 43,032 62,126 58,053 58,845 59,552 50.8m hl of other beverages (soft Shareholders' funds 49,972 42,137 71,341 72,264 74,590 78,005 Total Liabilities 142,550 134,635 256,210 239,128 240,120 240,954 drinks, water) in 2016. The company Capital employed 113,052 108,373 150,625 199,175 200,515 199,922 has a balanced portfolio with exposure Financial Ratios to both mature markets (35% of Operating margin 32.53 31.58 29.17 31.68 34.16 36.08 2017e EBIT) and developing markets Tax rate 18.12 20.82 19.10 24.00 24.00 24.00 (65%). Its main area of operations is Net margin 18.84 19.52 10.66 15.32 17.79 19.56 North America (31% of EBIT) and ROE (after tax) 17.74 20.20 6.80 12.07 14.36 15.88 ROCE (after tax) 11.09 10.06 7.13 6.88 7.79 8.68 Latin America (47%). AB InBev’s Gearing 83.48 98.68 119 123 118 110 brand portfolio comprises strong Pay out ratio 49.58 58.05 104 52.50 52.50 52.50 international and local brands Number of shares, diluted 1,665 1,668 1,755 1,982 1,982 1,982 including Budweiser, Bud Light, Stella Data per Share (USD) Artois, Beck’s, Skol and Brahma. EPS 5.54 4.96 0.71 3.47 4.86 5.99 Restated EPS 5.32 5.10 2.77 4.40 5.40 6.25 % change 10.7% -4.1% -45.8% 59.1% 22.8% 15.7% BVPS 31.08 26.22 44.42 37.40 38.61 40.38 Operating cash flows 10.73 9.76 9.04 10.98 12.32 13.68 FCF 5.64 4.63 1.03 4.46 5.33 6.55 Net dividend 2.64 2.96 2.89 2.31 2.84 3.28 Source: Company Data; Bryan, Garnier & Co ests. 2 AB InBev Table of contents 1. Executive Summary ........................................................................................................... 4 Key graphs executive summary ....................................................................................................................... 5 2. AB InBev investment case ................................................................................................. 7 Key charts investment case............................................................................................................................... 9 3. AB InBev financial outlook .............................................................................................. 10 3.1. Strong earnings growth in 2018 and 2019 ..................................................................................... 10 3.2. Valuation of AB InBev ...................................................................................................................... 13 3.2.1. Peer comparison ........................................................................................................................ 13 3.2.2. DCF valuation ........................................................................................................................... 14 4. Ambev introduction .......................................................................................................... 16 5. The Brazilian beer market ................................................................................................ 18 5.1. Mid-term drivers of market growth ................................................................................................ 19 5.1.1. Demographic growth is slowing ............................................................................................. 19 5.1.2. Increasing beer consumption in the North/North East. .................................................. 20 5.1.3. Premiumisation still offers significant opportunities .......................................................... 22 5.1.4. Duopoly in the making ............................................................................................................ 24 5.1.5. Growth in beer consumption driven by affordability......................................................... 26 5.2. Ambev’s initiatives to capture growth potential ........................................................................... 27 5.2.1. On-premise retail initiatives .................................................................................................... 27 5.2.2. A well-structured pricing ladder ............................................................................................. 29 5.2.3. Returnable bottles to counter price pressure ....................................................................... 35 5.2.4. Distribution is key ..................................................................................................................... 39 5.2.5. Innovations ................................................................................................................................ 39 6. Ambev financial outlook ................................................................................................... 41 6.1. Brazil back to volume
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