Agriculture, Dams, and Weather
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Agriculture, Dams, and Weather Item Type text; Electronic Dissertation Authors Mirghasemi, Seyedeh Soudeh Publisher The University of Arizona. Rights Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author. Download date 29/09/2021 10:35:42 Link to Item http://hdl.handle.net/10150/579110 AGRICULTURE, DAMS, AND WEATHER by Seyedeh Soudeh Mirghasemi BY: = A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of the DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements For the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY In the Graduate College THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA 2015 2 THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA GRADUATE COLLEGE As members of the Dissertation Committee, we certify that we have read the dis- sertation prepared by Seyedeh Soudeh Mirghasemi, entitled Agriculture, Dams, and Weather and recommend that it be accepted as fulfilling the dissertation requirement for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Date: 29 July 2015 Price Fishback Date: 29 July 2015 Ashley Langer Date: 29 July 2015 Derek Lemoine Date: 29 July 2015 Jessamyn Schaller Date: 29 July 2015 Final approval and acceptance of this dissertation is contingent upon the candidate’s submission of the final copies of the dissertation to the Graduate College. I hereby certify that I have read this dissertation prepared under my direction and recommend that it be accepted as fulfilling the dissertation requirement. Date: 29 July 2015 Dissertation Director: Price Fishback 3 STATEMENT BY AUTHOR This dissertation has been submitted in partial fulfillment of requirements for an advanced degree at the University of Arizona and is deposited in the University Library to be made available to borrowers under rules of the Library. Brief quotations from this dissertation are allowable without special permission, provided that accurate acknowledgment of source is made. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States Li- cense. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by- nd/3.0/us/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. SIGNED: Seyedeh Soudeh Mirghasemi 4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This journey would not have been possible without such helpful, supportive, and patient committee members, such as Ashley Langer, Derek Lemoine, Jessamyn Schaller, and my amazing adviser, Price Fishback. Thank you all for your guidance and encouragement throughout my graduate studies. I am also grateful for the invaluable support and advice from Sandy Dall’erba, Gautam Gowrisankaran, Gary Richardson, Andrew Gahan, Francina Dominguez, the members of Arizona History Workshop, and the Arizona Environmental Energy Group. Further- more, I would like to thank the Economic History Association, the University of Arizona, the Institute of the Environment, and the University of Arizona’s Department of Economics for their grants and support. Finally, I would like to thank all of my classmates and friends. Graduate life is far easier when you are surrounded by great people and the support they provide. All errors are my own. Special thanks to my love, Bardiya, my caring parents, Marzieh and Mahmoud, and amazing family members. Thank you for being there and for believing in me and my success. 5 DEDICATION To my beloved Bardiya, and my lovely parents, Marzieh and Mahmoud 6 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES................................8 LIST OF TABLES.................................9 ABSTRACT.................................... 11 CHAPTER 1 Philosopher’s Concrete: Dam Construction, Farmland Values and Agricultural Production in the Western U.S., 1890 - 1920....... 13 1.1 Introduction................................ 13 1.2 Historical Background.......................... 17 1.3 Data.................................... 19 1.3.1 Census of Agriculture Data................... 19 1.3.2 Major Dams............................ 20 1.3.3 Presidential Elections....................... 21 1.3.4 Climate and Geographical Data................. 22 1.3.5 Soil Data............................. 22 1.4 Empirical Strategy............................ 23 1.4.1 Empirical Model......................... 23 1.4.2 IV strategy............................ 26 1.5 Results................................... 28 1.6 Conclusion................................. 31 CHAPTER 2 Politics and Dam Construction: Historical Evidence from the Western U.S................................... 45 2.1 Introduction................................ 45 2.2 Historical Background.......................... 46 2.2.1 National Irrigation Congress Role................ 46 2.2.2 Passage of Irrigation Bill..................... 49 2.2.3 Bureau of Reclamation...................... 52 2.3 Data.................................... 53 2.3.1 Major Dams............................ 53 2.3.2 Presidential Election....................... 55 2.3.3 Geographic Characteristics................... 55 2.4 Empirical Strategies and Results..................... 56 2.4.1 Bureau in 1910.......................... 56 2.4.2 Results............................... 57 7 TABLE OF CONTENTS – Continued 2.4.3 Army Corps of Engineers..................... 58 2.4.4 Corps versus Bureau....................... 61 2.5 Conclusion................................. 62 CHAPTER 3 The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: Accounting for Climate Zones in the Ricardian Approach.......... 76 3.1 Introduction................................ 76 3.2 The Ricardian Setting.......................... 82 3.3 Data.................................... 84 3.4 Results................................... 87 3.4.1 Climate Regions.......................... 87 3.4.2 The Results for the Past (1997-2007).............. 87 3.5 Conclusion................................. 89 REFERENCES................................... 109 8 LIST OF FIGURES 1.1 Number of Dams Constructed by Different Types of Owner...... 42 1.2 Percentage of Dams Constructed by Different Types of Owner.... 42 1.3 Mean of the Height of Dams Constructed by Different Types of Owner in Each Decade.............................. 43 1.4 Mean of the Maximum Storage of Dams Constructed by Different Types of Owner in Each Decade..................... 43 1.5 Percent Change in Farm Value per Acre (1900-1910).......... 44 1.6 Percent Change in Farm Value per Acre (1910-1920).......... 44 2.1 Dams - Bureau and Corps........................ 70 2.2 Dams Constructed by the Bureau: (a) One Purpose: Irrigation, (b) Multi Purposes: Irrigation - Hydroelectric, (c) Multi Purposes: Irri- gation - Recreation............................ 71 2.3 Dams Constructed by the Corps: (a) One Purpose: Flood Control, (b) Multi Purposes: Flood Control - Hydroelectric, (c) Multi Pur- poses: Flood Control - Recreation.................... 72 2.4 Dams Constructed by the Bureau and Corps.............. 73 2.5 Dams Constructed by the Corps..................... 74 2.6 Dams Constructed by the Bureau.................... 75 3.1 Climate Regions.............................. 107 3.2 Climate Data............................... 108 9 LIST OF TABLES 1.1 Summary Statistics, 1900 - 1920.................... 33 1.2 Summary Statistics - 1900........................ 34 1.3 Pre Trend Test, 1890-1900........................ 35 1.4 Federal Major Dams in the West.................... 36 1.5 Primary Purpose............................. 36 1.6 Association of the % of Votes for Republican in Presidential Elections and Dam Construction.......................... 37 1.7 Fixed Effect Results: Impact of a Newly Constructed Dam on the Natural Log of the Value of the Land per Acre 1900-1920....... 38 1.8 Fixed Effect and Instrumental Variable Results, Impact of a Newly Constructed Dam on the Natural Log of the Value of the Land per Acre 1900-1920.............................. 38 1.9 Fixed Effect and Instrumental Variable Results, Impact of a Newly Constructed Dam on the Natural Log of the Value of the Land per Acre 1900-1920.............................. 39 1.10 Area Irrigated, Capital Invested..................... 39 1.11 Fixed Effect Results: Impact of a Newly Constructed Dam on Bushel per Acre and Acres Planted of Major Crops 1900-1920........ 40 1.12 Instrumental Variable Results, Impact of a Newly Constructed Dam on Bushel per Acre and Acres Planted of Major Crops 1900-1920... 40 1.13 Fixed Effect and Instrumental Variable Results, Impact of a Newly Constructed Dam on the Share of Acre Improved, Log of the Livestock per Acre, and Log of the Dairy Value per Acre 1900-1920....... 41 1.14 Instrumental Variable Results, Impact of a Newly Constructed Dam on the Share of Acre Improved, Log of the Livestock per Acre, and Log of the Dairy Value per Acre 1900-1920............... 41 2.1 Federal Dams in the West........................ 63 2.2 Primary Purposes............................. 64 2.3 Primary Purposes - Pre and Post 1936................. 65 2.4 Association of the % of Votes for Republicans in Presidential Election and Dam Construction.......................... 66 2.5 Montana and Idaho Dams........................ 67 2.6 Logit Estimation............................. 68 2.7 Purposes - Pre and Post 1936...................... 69 10 LIST OF TABLES – Continued 3.1 Summary Statistics - Northwest..................... 91 3.2 Summary Statistics - West....................... 91 3.3 Summary Statistics - Southwest....................