A Professional Journal of National Defence College Volume 10

A Professional Journal of National Defence College

Volume 10 Number 1 June 2011

National Defence College Bangladesh EDITORIAL BOARD Chief Patron Lieutenant General Mollah Fazle Akbar, ndc, psc Editor-in-Chief Commodore Mohammad Saiful Kabir, ndu, psc, BN Editor Colonel Muhammad Shahnoor Rahman, afwc, psc Associate Editors Colonel Muhammad Shams-ul-Huda, afwc, psc Group Captain Muhammad Shafqat Ali, afwc, psc, GD (P) Assistant Editors Senior Assistant Secretary Muhammad Shahanoor Alam Civilian Staff Officer-3 Md Nazrul Islam DISCLAMER The analysis, opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this Journal are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the NDC, Bangladesh Armed Forces or any other agencies of Bangladesh Government. Statements of fact or opinion appearing in NDC Journal are solely those of the authors and do not imply endorsement by the editors or publisher. ISSN: 1683-8475 INITIAL SUBMISSION Initial Submission of manuscripts and editorial correspondence should be sent to the National Defence College, Mirpur Cantonment, Dhaka-1216, Bangladesh. Tel: 88 02 9014922, Fax: 88 02 8034715, E mail : [email protected], Authors should consult the Notes for Contributions at the back of the Journal before submit- ting their final draft. The editors cannot accept responsibility for any damage to or loss of manuscripts. Subscription Rate (Single Copy) Individuals : Tk 300 / USD 10 (including postage) Institutions : Tk 375 / USD 15 (including postage) Published by the National Defence College, Bangladesh All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval system, or transmitted in any form, or by any means, electrical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher. Design & Printed by : GraphNet Limited 55/B, Purana Paltan (3rd Floor), Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh Tel : 880-2-9566649, 7168945, E-mail : [email protected] CONTENTS

Page College Governing Body iv Vision and Mission Statement of the College v Foreword by the Commandant vi Editorial vii Faculty and Staff viii List of Individual Research Papers: 2010 ix Abstracts xvi

Climate Change: Effects on Public Health in Bangladesh: Analysis and Recommendation 1 By- Brigadier General A K M Fariduzzaman, ndc

Combating Terrorism: Regional Task Force in South Asia 26 By- Brigadier General G M Quamrul Islam, ndc, psc

The Role of NGOs - Impact on National Security of Bangladesh 50 By- Brigadier General Md Emadul Haque, ndc, psc

Myanmar’s Strategic Objectives in the 21st Century: Recommendations for Bangladesh 71 By- Air Commodore Md Anwarul Haque Sardar, ndc, fawc, psc, GD(P)

Women in Bangladesh Police: A Study on Gender Perspective 102 By- Deputy Inspector General Md. Motiar Rahman, ndc

Iran’s Nuclear Development Programme and Its Impact on the Security of the Middle East 131 By- Brigadier General Yahya Bin Abdullah Al-Asiri, ndc

Role of the Domestic Aviation for Promoting Tourism in Sri Lanka 146 By- Air Commodore R.J. Pathirage, ndc

New Polarisation: Reasons to Searching Strategic Alliance 178 By- Commander S M Khalid Hossain, (S), afwc, psc, BN COLLEGE GOVERNING BODY

PRESIDENT Sheikh Hasina Hon’ble Prime Minister People’s Republic of Bangladesh

SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT Major General Tarique Ahmed Siddique, rcds, psc (Retd) Security Affairs Advisor to the Hon’ble Prime Minister

VICE PRESIDENT General Md Abdul Mubeen, ndc, psc; Chief of Army Staff Rear Admiral Z U Ahmed, ndc, psc; Chief of Naval Staff Air Marshal S M Ziaur Rahman, ndc, fawc, psc; Chief of Air Staff MEMBERS Lieutenant General Mollah Fazle Akbar Mr. Iqbal Mahmood ndc, psc Secretary, Ministry of Public Administration Commandant, National Defence College Dr Mohammad Tareque Lieutenant General Abdul Wadud, ndu, psc Secretary, Ministry of Finance Principal Staff Officer, Armed Forces Division Mohammed Mijarul Quayes Major General Chowdhury Hasan Sarwardy Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs BB, ndc, psc Mr Syed Ataur Rahman Vice Chancellor, Bangladesh University of Secretary, Ministry of Education Professionals Professor A A M S Arefin Siddique Major General Mohammad Shamim Vice Chancellor, Dhaka University Chowdhury, nwc, psc Commandant, Defence Services Command Professor Dr. Shariff Enamul Kabir & Staff College Vice Chancellor, Jahangir Nagar University Khondokar Md Asaduzzaman Professor Dr Kazi Shahidullah Secretary, Ministry of Defence Vice Chancellor, National University

MEMBER SECRETARY Brigadier General A K M Waheduzzaman, ndc, psc; College Secretary, National Defence College Captain M Abu Ashraf, (TAS), ncc, psc, BN; Colonel General Staff, Defence Services Command & Staff College IV VISION AND MISSION STATEMENTS OF THE COLLEGE

VISION

The National Defence College is dedicated to be the premier national centre of excellence in security, strategic and development studies.

MISSION

To educate and train selected senior Armed Forces and Civil Services officers at operational and strategic level of national security and development.

To focus on long term national security and development issues and suggest appropriate national response.

To support the national agencies in policy making on security and development matters.

To support the Armed Forces on strategic and operational level planning of warfare.

To strengthen Civil-Military relation in Bangladesh.

To strengthen Military to Military cooperation in the region and beyond.

FOREWORD

It is a great delight for me to see the 10th Issue Part 1 of NDC Journal being published. Keeping in view the vision of the college-“to be the premier national centre of excellence on defence, security, strategic and development studies”, every year this journal is published with the selected research works performed in the college. To disseminate our research works in a greater scale this year for the first time NDC is going to publish the Journal in two parts with more number of articles. I hope our efforts will provide some more food for thoughts for our esteemed readers at home and abroad.

Since its inception in 1999 National Defence College has been constantly striving to reach the landmark ‘Centre of Excellence’ on defence and security studies. Now we feel proud to be recognized as the premier institution of the country. The institution’s credibility has surpassed beyond the perimeter of the country. The college has always been offering an intellectually rewarding and effective academic curriculum to the potential planners, leaders and strategic thinkers of the future. It is inspiring to see, the graduates of this college have been able to make differences in their respective fields.

National Defence College has always been emphasizing on conducting quality research on contemporary issues on defence and national security. It is pleasing to note that the 10th Issue Part 1 of NDC journal is an authentic representation of our efforts. The selected ‘Individual Research Papers’ of the course members of both National Defence Course and Armed Forces War Course have been published in the journal. The editorial board could accommodate thought provoking articles of varied interest. I believe keen readers will find the publication useful and enriching.

I congratulate all the members who have contributed to this journal. I thank the editorial board for editing and publishing the journal as planned. I do sincerely ask for response and comment from the valued readers. Your suggestions will definitely be aiding us in furthering the standard of our future publications.

M F Akbar Lieutenant General Commandant

VI EDITORIAL

Today national security is no longer viewed through military lenses, but has expanded to a multi-dimensional facet in meaning. In its widest sense it is the defence against challenges to a nation’s vital security interests. National Defence College (NDC) is one of the institutions which are set forth to study these vital security matters. This volume is the 10th issue of the ‘NDC Journal’ which contains articles of such interests. As one reads through them, one will observe a smooth and systematic progress in the development of the idea of national security. The practice of measuring effectiveness of security in terms of territorial integrity and sovereignty is no longer the only method available to researchers. Non-traditional factors of security as envisaged in political, economic, societal and environmental issues apart from military-centric value have equal claim upon intellectual exercise.

National Defence College has been very regular in bringing out on time its `NDC Journal` every year. This speaks highly of the laborious effort and genuine commitment on the part of both the editorial staff and writers. The selected ones which appear in the NDC Journal are the abridged version of their long research papers. While research papers are usually of 10000 -15000 words, the abridged versions are of 4000 -6000 words. The abridgement is executed in such a manner that the inner significance and depth of the contents do not lose their objectives and preciseness. This year, the total output in research work from both National Defence and Armed Forces War Courses was about seventy Individual Research Papers. To select only eight of them demanded consensus based on serious examination of these papers on the part of the editorial staff. We would like to express our sincere gratitude to the Chief Patron Lieutenant General Mollah Fazle Akbar, ndc, psc, the Commandant of NDC for his valuable guidance.

This volume includes papers of different categories concerning national security. These draw attention to Climate Change: Effects on Public Health in Bangladesh, Combating Terrorism: Regional Task Force in South Asia, The Role of NGOs: Impact on National Security of Bangladesh, Myanmar’s Strategic Objectives in the 21st Century: Recommendations for Bangladesh, Women in Bangladesh Police: A Study on Gender Perspective, Iran’s Nuclear Development Programme and Its Impact on the Security of the Middle East, Role of the Domes- tic Aviation for Promoting Tourism in Sri Lanka and lastly New Polarisation: Reasons to Searching Strategic Alliance. A reader, before getting into the pleasure of reading, can get an idea of what these papers are about from the abstracts included at the beginning of this journal.

Research is a highly committed undertaking. Despite all efforts, unintentional errors in various forms may appear in the journal. We ardently request our valued readers to pardon us for such unnoticed slights and shall consider ourselves rewarded to receive any evocative criticism. We hope that all papers included in this volume will satisfy our readers.

Mohammad Saiful Kabir, ndu, psc, Commodore, BN Senior Directing Staff (Navy) VII LIST OF FACULTY AND STAFF

COMMANDANT Lieutenant General Mollah Fazle Akbar, ndc, psc

NDC FACULTY Brigadier General Sohel Ahmed, ndc, afwc, psc, SDS (Army) Commodore Mohammad Saiful Kabir, ndu, psc, BN, SDS (Navy) Air Commodore Shahe Alam, ndc, psc, SDS (Air) Joint Secretary A F M Nurus Safa Chowdhury, ndc, SDS (Civil)

AFWC FACULTY Brigadier General Sajjadul Haque, afwc, psc, Chief Instructor Colonel Muhammad Shams-ul-Huda, afwc, psc, DS (Army-1) Colonel Md Abdur Rouf, afwc, psc, DS (Army-2) Commander M Musa,(G), afwc, psc, BN, DS (Navy) Group Captain Muhammad Shafqat Ali, afwc, psc, GD(P), DS(Air)

STAFFS Brigadier General A K M Waheduzzaman, ndc, psc, College Secretary Colonel Muhammad Shahnoor Rahman, afwc, psc, Director, Research & Academic Lieutenant Colonel Muhammad Obaidur Rahamn, afwc, psc, GSO-1 (Trg) Lieutenant Colonel Md Muniruzzaman, psc, Engrs, Senior Research Fellow Lieutenant Colonel Hasan Shahriar, psc, E Bengal, GSO-1 (Admin) Major Md Manzur Hasan Khan, psc, E Bengal, GSO-2 (P&C) Major Mohammad Kalam Miah, GSO-2 (Accounts) Major Md Anwar Hossain Bhuiyan, psc, Arty, GSO-2 (Admin) Major Gazi Nahiduzzaman, Sigs, GSO-2 (Network Admin) Major Mohammad Sheraf Uddin Khan, psc, Arty, GSO-2 (Coord) Major Motaher Hossain, psc, ASC, GSO-2(Coord), AFWC Wing Lieutenant Commander Muhammad Mahfujur Rahman, (L), BN, GSO-2 (TS) Squadron Leader Aziz Ahmed Nasim, Admin, GSO-2 (SD) Senior Assistant Secretary Muhammad Shanoor Alam, Research Coord Captain Saimoon Naher, MTO Flight Lieutenant Kamrun Nahar, Edn, GSO-3 AFWC Mr Md Nazrul Islam, CSO-3 (Library)

VIII LIST OF INDIVIDUAL RESEARCH PAPERS NATIONAL DEFENCE COURSE - 2010

1. China Myanmar Connectivities: Implications for Bangladesh Colonel Zhao Yubin, ndc 2. Globalization of Democracy: Implications for the Muslim World Brigadier General Ashraf Ezzat Sharaf Mohamed, ndc 3. Future Flash Points in India Brigadier RR Nimbhorkar, SM, VSM, ndc 4. Gulf Cooperation Council and Its Defensive Imperatives Colonel Hikmat Mohd Khalaf al-Tarawneh, ndc 5. Contemporary Peacekeeping Operations: Issues and Challenges for Malaysian Armed Forces Brigadier General Hasanudin bin Mustafa, ndc 6. Maoist Insurgency; An analysis from Nepalese Army’s Counterinsurgency Perspective Brigadier General Rajendra Bikram Shah, ndc 7. National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy: Issues and Prospects Colonel MK Galadanci, ndc 8. Developing Military Reserve Force in Nigeria and Bangladesh: Issues and Propects Colonel O O Adeleke, ndc 9. Shared Experiences of Poverty Reduction Initiatives in Bangladesh and Nigeria Colonel LEO Irabor, ndc 10. Nigerian Navy and Management of Maritime Zone: Challenges and Prospects Captain (NN) B Babagbale, ndc

IX 11. Transforming the Nigerian Navy to Meet the Challenges in the Next Decade Captain (NN) Duja Emmanuel Effedua, ndc 12. The Impact of Military Rule on Democracy in Bangladesh: An Appraisal Group Captain PA Edi, ndc 13. Establishment of Special Forces in Armed Forces of Nigeira - Issuse and Prospects Captain (NN) AO Suleiman, ndc 14. Subcontinent’s Security Paradigm: Its Impact on the World’s Security Brigadier Akhtar Jamil Rao, ndc 15. Challenges of Muslim World in the Present Day Staff Brigadier General Jumah Saeed .J. Al-Kubaisi, ndc 16. The India – Israel Relationship and it’s Impact on Region and Neighboring Countries Commodore Omar Bin Saeed Alfaquih Al-E Ghamedi, ndc 17. Iran’s Nuclear Development Programme and Its Impact on the Security of the Middle East Staff Brigadier General (Pilot) Yahya Bin Abdullah Al-Asiri, ndc 18. Role of the Domestic Aviation for Promoting Tourism in Sri Lanka Air Commodore R.J. Pathirage, ndc 19. Challenges Facing Negotiations of Peace Agreements in Sub- Saharan Africa: A Case Study of the IGAD Mediation on the Sudan Conflict Air Commodore Beder Eldein Kamal Bayoumi, ndc 20. Foreign Direct Investment as an Instrument of Economic Development for Developing Countries: Analysis and Recommendations-Tanzania Mining as a Case Study Brigadier General KG Msemwa, ndc 21. Climate Change: Effects on Public Health in Bangladesh: Analysis and Recommendation Brigadier General A K M Fariduzzaman, ndc 22. Industrial Waste Management (IWM) and Environmental Pollution in Bangladesh: A Critical Assessment of Hazaribagh Tannery Relocation Brigadier General Md Shahid Sarwar, ndc, psc 23. Cyber Crime in Bangladesh: Implications and Response Strategy Brigadier General Md Khurshid Alam, ndc, psc 24. Cultural Influence: A Study on its Impact on Urban Middle Class of Bangladesh Brigadier General Muhammad Tasnim, ndc, psc 25. Carbon Mitigation: Clean Coal Through Carbon Capture & Storage Under Clean Development Mechanism for Energy and Climate Security in Bangladesh Brigadier General Abul Hossain, ndc, psc 26. Indigenization: A Strategy for Defence Industrialization in Bangladesh Brigadier General Md Anwarul Islam, ndc, psc, G+ 27. Combating Terrorism: Regional Task Force in South Asia Brigadier General G M Quamrul Islam, ndc, psc 28. Chinese Economic Growth and Its Fallout on South Asian Countries Brigadier General Abdullah Mohammad Feroz Chowdhury, ndc, psc, G+ 29. Growing US-India Strategic Partnership and its Implications for South Asia and Beyond Brigadier General Md Mahbubul Alam Mollah, ndc, afwc, psc 30. The Role of NGOs - Impact on National Security Bangladesh Brigadier General Md Emadul Haque, ndc, psc 31. Food Security – Way Ahead for a Hunger Free Bangladesh Brigadier General Md Nasim Akhter, ndc, afwc, psc 32. Evolving US- Bangladesh Relationship and It’s Impact on the Security of Bangladesh Rear Admiral A M M M Aurangzeb Chowdhury, (G), ndc, psc, BN

XI 33. Regional Connectivity and Ports of Bangladesh Commodore Jobair Ahmad, (E), ndc, psc, BN 34. Media – Military Relation: A Case Study of Bangladesh Commodore Md Shaheen Iqbal, (TAS), ndc, afwc, psc, BN 35. Myanmar’s Strategic Objectives in the 21st Century: Recommendations for Bangladesh Air Commodore Md Anwarul Haque Sardar, ndc, fawc, psc, GD(P) 36. Post Copenhagen Climate Accord 2009: Opportunities and Options for Bangladesh Group Captain Khan Shahinul Bari, psc, GD(P) 37. Role of Space Research and Remote Sensing Organization (SPARRSO) in the Development of Bangladesh – An Assessment Joint Secretary Mr. Muhammad Tahir Hussain, ndc 38. Industrial Development through Agro based Industries: Challenges and Prospects Joint Secretary Mrs. Hosne Ara Begum, ndc 39. Integrated Farming Model for Rural Development of Bangladesh - Challenges and Opportunities Joint Secretary Mrs. Tahmina Begum, ndc 40. Empowerment of Women in the Union Level Local Government Institutions: A Case-study Beyond the Surface Joint Secretary Aziz Hasan, ndc 41. Bangladesh’s Relation with Gulf Countries: Problems and Prospect to Increase Trade and Cooperation Joint Secretary Mr. Munshi Alauddin Al Azad, ndc 42. Modernization of Fire Service & Civil Defence – A need of the Time Joint Secretary Syed Mustafizur Rahman, ndc

XII 43. Problems of Primary Education in Bangladesh Joint Secretary Amir Hossain, ndc 44. Poverty Alleviation of the Under Privileged Area by Community Mobilization- A Case Study of Sunamganj Joint Secretary Mr. Md Zahir Uddin Ahmed, ndc 45. Regional Connectivity: Implications for Economic Development Director General Ashraf Uddin, ndc 46. Women in Bangladesh Police: A Study on Gender Perspective Deputy Inspector General Md. Motiar Rahman, ndc

XIII LIST OF INDIVIDUAL RESEARCH PAPERS ARMED FORCES WAR COURSE - 2010

1. The Need for an Intelligence Community: Bangladesh Perspective Lieutenant Colonel Mohammad Abdul Alim Tarafdar, afwc, psc, Inf 2. Sustainable Communication Under Threat: Electronic Warfare for Bangladesh Armed Forces Lieutenant Colonel AKM Aminul Haque, afwc, psc, Sigs 3. Attrition Warfare Vis-À-Vis Manoeuvre Warfare – Option for Bangladesh Armed Forces Lieutenant Colonel Abul Hasnat Mohammad Khairul Bashar, afwc, psc, Inf 4. Need for Coordinated Intelligence Structure for Bangladesh Lieutenant Colonel Md Mostagousur Rahman Khan, psc, Inf 5. Evaluation of the Draft Doctrine on Blending Unconventional Warfare with Conventional Warfare Lieutenant Colonel A S M Ridwanur Rahman, afwc, psc, G, Arty 6. Total People’s Defence – A Concept of Force Outcropping for Bangladesh Lieutenant Colonel Shakil Ahmed, afwc, psc, Inf 7. The Emergent Requirement of Connectivity: Bangladesh Perspective Lieutenant Colonel Md Golam Faruque, afwc, psc, Inf 8. Alternative Energy Options for Bangladesh Lieutenant Colonel S M Ali Azam, afwc, psc, ASC 9. Feasibility Study on Nuclear Power Generation for Bangladesh and Available Alternatives Lieutenant Colonel Selim Mahmud, afwc, psc, Inf 10. People’s Logistics – A Concept for Bangladesh Armed Forces Lieutenant Colonel A R Mohammad Parvez Mazumder, afwc, psc XIV 11. The Israel-Lebanon War 2006 and It’s Takeways for the Bangladesh Army Lieutenant Colonel Md Shamim Kamal, afwc, psc, Inf 12. Fourth Generation Warfare (4GM) and Challenges for Bangladesh Armed Forces Lieutenant Colonel Sharif Ahsan, afwc, psc, AC 13. Importance of Bilateral Relationship Between Myanmar and Bangladesh and Suggestions for Future Improvement Lieutenant Colonel A B M Salahuddin, afwc, psc, Engrs 14. How Does Global Climate Change Endanger Security of Bangladesh in Future Lieutenant Colonel Md Ashikuzzaman, afwc, psc, G, Arty 15. Strategic Implication of Asian Highway and Its Impact on Bangladesh Lieutenant Colonel Md Zahidur Rahim, afwc, psc, Arty 16. Special Warfare Diving and Salvage Command (SWADS): A Forces Multiplier for Bangladesh Navy Captain Salim Reza Haroon, (X), afwc, psc, BN 17. New Polarisation: Reasons to Searching Strategic Alliance Commander S M Khalid Hossain, (S), afwc, psc, BN 18. Non-Traditional Security Threats – Challenges to Economic Development and Options for Bangladesh Commander M Anwar Hossain, (ND), afwc, psc, BN 19. Security of Mil Information Systems: Bangladesh Armed Forces Perspective Group Captain ASM Fakrul Islam, afwc, psc, GD(P) 20. Need for Base Air Defence System for Bangladesh Air Force and Proposed Structure, Weapon and Equipment to Fulfill the Requirement Wing Commander Md Mamunur Rashid, afwc, psc, ADWC 21. Organizing for Effects Based Operation: An Assessment of Institutional Machinery Requirement for Bangladesh Armed Forces Wing Commander Saiful Islam Jilani, afwc, psc, GD(P) 22. Implementation of Total Quality Management (TQM) for Bangladesh Air Force Wing Commander Md Moazzem Hossain, afwc, psc, Engrs XV ABSTRACT

CLIMATE CHANGE : EFFECTS ON PUBLIC HEALTH IN BANGLADESH: ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATION Brigadier General A K M Fariduzzaman, ndc There is now widespread agreement that the earth is warming, due to emissions of greenhouse gases caused by human activities. It is also clear that current trends in energy use, development and population growth will lead to continuous and more severe climate change and as such it is a serious global concern. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to Climate Change mainly due to its geographical location, high population density and poverty. Various climate change related events like heat waves, cold waves, flood, drought, Sea Level Rise, salinity intrusion, cyclone etc have direct and indirect adverse impacts on human health. The changing climate also affects the basic requirements for maintaining health e.g. air, water food etc. A warmer and more variable climate threatens to lead to higher levels of some air pollutants, increase transmission of diseases through unsafe water and contaminated food, compromise agricultural production and increase the hazards of extreme weather. Climate change also brings new challenges to the control of infectious diseases as many of the major killers are highly climate sensitive. The diseases include cholera and the diarrhoeal diseases, malaria, dengue, kala-azar, filariasis and other infections carried by vectors. All populations will be affected by a changing climate, but the initial health risks vary greatly, depending on where and how people live. Health effects are expected to be more severe for elderly people and people with infirmities or pre-existing medical conditions. This study is empirical and analytical in nature. The study tries to find out the impacts of Climate Change on human health of Bangladesh in a comprehensive manner. At the end of the study some recommendations have been put forward with the expectation of facilitating policy makers/planners to formulate viable adaptation policies/strategies and action plan.

COMBATING TERRORISM : REGIONAL TASK FORCE IN SOUTH ASIA

Brigadier General G M Quamrul Islam, ndc, psc Terrorism has been a recurring phenomenon in the history of mankind. The recent growing trend of terrorism is posing a serious threat to the peace and

XVI prosperity of some nations. South Asia is also engulfed in terrorist activities. It has become a matter of both internal and external security concerns for all the South Asian countries. They are transborder in nature and also received support from outside world. A failure to curb this trend would seriously hinder the regions’ as well as the world’s stability. Bangladesh is also no exception to that. Though, apparently it seems that the symptoms of terrorism in Bangladesh is not that grave, yet, it might escalate too fast provided we fail to take appropriate measures to counter it. The regional co-operation among the stakeholders can certainly play an important role to hinder and address the gradual growth of terrorism. Regional approach has received great attention among policy makers and various governments in recent years as a way to bolster mutual support among countries against terrorist activities. The paper highlights an in depth analysis about South Asian terrorism in particular, with special attention of formation of a regional task force to fight the same. It may be mentioned that a viable regional task force in South Asia will not only help in bringing about the much needed regional peace, rather its spill over effect would certainly be a tool for ensuring wider cooperation in this part of the globe like other regions e.g. Association for South East Asian Nations, European Union, Gulf Cooperation Council, etc.

ROLE OF NGOs – IMPACT ON NATIONAL SECURITY OF BANGLADESH Brigadier General Md Emadul Haque, ndc, psc Bangladesh is faced with rampant poverty, high population density, recurring natural disaster and a dwindling natural resource base. The government alone cannot operate in all the development work. As a complimentary force to the state sector, Non Governmental Organizations (NGOs) had been playing a significant role in uplifting the socio-economic condition of the country over the past three decades. NGOs have concentrated their efforts in diversified areas and played a positive role in mobilizing and organizing the poor, alleviating poverty, empowering women, conducting formal informal literacy programme as well as primary education, health care, family planning, creating employment opportunities and income generating activities, disbursement of loan, relief and rehabilitation, post-disaster management, afforestation, etc. The NGO’s significant role itself depicts the importance of NGOs in the socio-economic development of Bangladesh. But some of the NGOs are found involved in some of the controversial issues like involvement in politics, commercial activities, corruption and they lack in

XVII financial transparency and accountability. These alleged controversial issues often obscure their contribution and pose threat to the national security of the country. A secondary research has been carried out to take an account of the impact of these alleged controversial issues on national security of Bangladesh. The paper found out that some controversial activities of some of the NGOs are directly or indirectly affecting the non-traditional security of Bangladesh and a set of actions are necessary to maximize the contributions of the NGOs in the overall development of the country and make them accountable to the government and beneficiaries. An autonomous NGO Commission should be set up to monitor the entire NGO sector and at the same time NGOs are to be ensured to spend most of their fund in the visible development works.

MYANMAR’S STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES IN THE 21st CENTURY: RECOMMENDATIONS FOR BANGLADESH Air Commodore Md Anwarul Haque Sardar, ndc, fawc, psc The Union of Myanmar is a least developed country under a military regime, geographically located in the middle of rising economic powers and a vibrant economic region, with abundance of energy resources within itself. Therefore, considering peaceful rise of China and India in this 21st century, geo-strategically Myanmar could be truly a gem. Thus, I offered the facts by reviewing its relationship with specific countries in three layers, firstly with immediate neighbors, secondly with next to neighbors and thirdly with big powers in the globe. Consequently, in this framework of relationship, I have argued comprehensively how Myanmar’s strategic objectives emerged as development networks with immediate neighbors, engagement networks using the region’s connection with big powers in the globe and the survival network with likely involvement of next to neighboring countries. In this report, Myanmar is the center of gravity for arguments to infer the emergence of those networks as strategic objectives, while implications are shown for Bangladesh limited to respond only.

Women in Bangladesh Police: A Study on Gender Perspective Deputy Inspector General Md. Motiar Rahman, ndc Policing has been known for so long as a masculine profession unsuitable for women since women lack the aggressiveness, roughness and physical prowess. This myth about the police job reinforced by the social and the cultural barriers forbids women to choose police as a profession. However, over time, the women

XVIII have been breaking the male bastion to take up police job as a profession. But their performance is measured in the context of established male standard which have rendered them virtually invisible in the realm of equity model at least in terms of contribution to this profession. In such context, the present study makes an attempt to examine the problems, issues and social perception emerging out of the role of women police in Bangladesh from the gender perspective. However, the study, based on a survey with a sample size of 100, represents about 4.63% of the total population consisting of different subordinate officers of Bangladesh police. Within a patriarchal, patrilineal and patrilocal social system, a large number of Bangladeshi women working in the formal and informal sectors contribute to the transformation of the traditional values and gender roles of Bangladeshi women. In the new paradigm of security and liberty of women, it is, therefore, imperative to integrate the security perspective of the women into the enforcement ethos of police strategies. In spite of the traditional gender based impediments, women shall have to be integrated into the core policing so as to give new impetus to the enforcement apparatus of the country in the present democratic setting. All members of the Bangladesh police in particular and the society in general shall have to be more dynamic, pragmatic and positive in helping to overcome the role conflicts encountered by the women police. IRAN’S NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME AND IT’S IMPACT ON THE SECURITY OF THE MIDDLE EAST: A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT Staff Brigadier General (Pilot) Yahya Bin Abdullah Al Asiri, ndc The undeclared Iran nuclear development programme was exposed in early 2000. Since then Iran was under pressure by the United Nations (UN) and international community. She was accused of conducting a covert nuclear weapon development programme. However, Iran reiterates that the programme is for peaceful purposes only. With Iran’s own history of conflicts and disputes in the region, the question arises whether her nuclear capabilities had really affected the regional security and her relations with the regional states. As a member of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran has the right to conduct nuclear research and produce safe nuclear energy. At present, the nuclear issue is at a stalemate situation. The situation is aggravated by the current disputes and conflicts between Iran and other Middle East states, which led to the increase of insecurity level in the region. Thus, the objectives of this study are to analyze Iran’s security and foreign policy; and her role in the Middle East security issues, to analyze the capability of Iran’s weapon of

XIX mass destruction (WMD) and nuclear development programme and finally to analyze the role and involvement of the UN, EU and the US in handling the Iranian nuclear issue. In satisfying the objectives, a qualitative method where primary and secondary sources were used. From the study conducted, Middle East states and extra regional actors are going through a period of uncertainty with increased insecurity over their future interest in the region. At the same time, Iran’s nuclear development programme has provided her with sufficient technologies and facilities that have threatened the regional states.

Role of the Domestic Aviation for Promoting Tourism in Sri Lanka Air Commodore R.J. Pathirage, ndc Understanding the travel and tourism in the world of change is challenging and meeting the individual’s expectations is considered a great achievement in the industry of hospitality. Tourism and travel are inseparable and the later, especially with the use of air travel has a catalyst effect on tourism in the global scenario. Globalization, socio demographic conditions and technological advancements have encouraged frequent travelling which implied by 5.5 percent average annual growth of global air travel for the last decade. However, in the Sir Lankan context, the role of domestic aviation has been neglected even though the island nation is determined to raise tourism as their major revenue generator in the national economy. Developing domestic aviation becomes a necessity mainly due to the travel desires of tourists and the dilapidated existing road transportation network. The study explored the industry of tourism and the impact of the domestic aviation on the industry by focusing on understanding the local and foreign tourists’ demands. The lacuna in the past research work enables to start from the very basics and determined the micro level demand function for domestic aviation. A conceptual model is formulated and proved that the demand for domestic aviation depends on seven parameters; namely (1) Travel Time, (2) Desirability, (3) Affordability, (4) Mobility, (5) Accessibility, (6) Reliability and (7) Safety and Security. Further, it revealed that the development of domestic aviation needs a multidimensional approach to bolster economy and the industry itself. The non availability of national policy, lack of capital intensive investments, are considered major obstacles. Also the research explains the most relevant factors

XX that influence the air travel are (1) Saving time (2) Travel comfort (3) Avoid traffic (4) affordable price and (5) avoid delays in business meetings. Finally, it suggested an indigenous approach which is required for the sustainability of both the industries while discussing the marketing promotion and benefit for the stakeholders.

NEW POLARISATION: REASONS TO SEARCHING STRATEGIC ALLIANCE Commander S M Khalid Hossain, (S), afwc, psc, BN Throughout the history, nation states made, broke and remade alliances to protect peace and to prevent war or any kind of coercion. Alliance is based on the principal of common goal and understanding; aimed to enhance cooperation on political, strategic (sometimes direct military intervention), intelligence, economic and technological spheres. Drawing on a wide body of analysis and research on international system, it can be said that in the ‘age of interdependence’ no countries, even great powers cannot work unilaterally. Asia Pacific Region countries who traditionally suffer from intrastate rivalry, mistrust and misunderstanding are responding their new security challenges with a mix of bilateral and multilateral approaches encompassing both USA and China. This could be example for Bangladesh in searching for suitable alliance(s). The increased defence budget of most of the Asian countries especially India and Myanmar give us enough reason to redraw the security architecture of Bangladesh. In the context of global and regional security alliance Bangladesh simply does not have the economic, political and military strength to act alone. It is therefore imperative for her to look for strategic alliance(s) to ensure her safety, security, survival and future development. Among many China, USA, India are going to be the key actors to influence the world politics. Therefore Bangladesh needs to be involved with all of these three either strategically, economically, politically or diplomatically.

XXI

CLIMATE CHANGE : EFFECTS ON PUBLIC HEALTH IN BANGLADESH: ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATION

Brigadier General A K M Fariduzzaman, ndc

INTRODUCTION There is a strong and growing, global, scientific consensus that the earth is warming, due to emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) caused by human activities. It is also clear that current trends of energy use, development activities and population growth will lead to continuous and more severe climate change(CC). Climate of the earth is not static, and has changed many times in response to a variety of natural causes. In recent years the earth has experienced increasing global warming due to natural causes and human activities as well.

As humans emit more Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, the greenhouse effect becomes stronger and causes the earth’s climate to change unnaturally due to rise of temperature. As depicted in the Human Development Report 2007/2008 “Global warming is already happening. World temperatures have increased by around 0.70C since the advent of the industrial era and the rate of increase is quickening”. Human is the main driver of CC as revealed by the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). As an environmental problem, CC will generate number of health problems along with social and economic problems for a vast majority of the world’s population.

Understanding Climate and Climate Change Climate (from Ancient Greek lima, meaning inclination) is commonly defined as the weather averaged over a long period of time. The standard averaging period is 30 years, but other periods may be used depending on the purpose. The IPCC glossary definition is: Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the “average weather,” or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). These quantities are most often surface

. WHO,2009’ Protecting Health from Climate Change :Connecting science, Policy and People’, p.2 . Bangladesh: Capacity Development Action Plan for Sustainable Environmental Governance, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, December 2007, p. 19 Climate Change : Effects on Public Health in Bangladesh: Analysis and Recommendation

variables such as temperature, precipitation, and wind. Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system. The difference between climate and weather is usefully summarized by the popular phrase “Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.” Figure-1 depicts schematic illustration of the climate system Figure- 1 Schematic illustration of the climate system

WHO, 2003. A. J. McMichael et al ‘.Climate change and human health: risks and response’

Climate Change phenomenon In generic sense, CC refers to shifts in temperature that have happened over the last 100 years. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines CC as “a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.” The UNFCCC uses the term CC to mean only those changes that are brought about by human activities. According to the AR4 of the Working Group III of IPCC, CC refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. . Intergovernmental Panel on climate change Appendix I: Glossary 2007. . WHO, 2003.’Climate Change &Human Health –Risks and Responses (Summary)’ p. 32

The Greenhouse Gases Effect The Greenhouse Effect is a natural process through which various gases and water vapour in the atmosphere affects the earth’s climate. It is so named because it acts like a glass greenhouse for plants by preventing the incoming heat from the sun from leaving causing warming of the earth just as the inside of a greenhouse warms. These GHGs comprise, principally, carbon dioxide, plus other heat- trapping gases such as methane (from irrigated agriculture, animal husbandry and oil extraction) nitrous oxide and various human-made halocarbons. (Figure-2). Figure- 2 Global annual GHGs emissions (1970-2004) and different share in 2004

a. Global annual emissions of anthropogenic GHGs from 1970 to 2004. b. Share of different anthropogenic GHGs in total emissions in 2004 in terms of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2-eq). c. Share of different sectors in total anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2004 in terms of CO2-eq. Source: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers, IPCC

Climate change effect in Bangladesh Bangladesh is situated at the boundary of two contrasting settings with the Bay of Bengal and the North Indian Ocean to the south and the Himalayas to the north. The geographical location, low and almost flat topography, very high population density, etc. have made Bangladesh one of the world’s most

. Pender, J.S. 2008. ‘What is Climate Change? And How it may affect Bangladesh’. Briefing Paper. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Church of Bangladesh Social Development Programme.p. 9 . Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers, IPCC. p. 5

Climate Change : Effects on Public Health in Bangladesh: Analysis and Recommendation

vulnerable countries to be affected by the global warming and CC. The CC effects in Bangladesh are discussed in the subsequent paragraphs.

Flooding Bangladesh is a deltaic country with an area of 144,900 sq. km most of which is basically the floodplain of the three greatest rivers of the world - the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna (GBM). Bangladesh is one of the world’s most flood-prone countries. About one-fifth to one-third of the country is flooded by overflowing over to varying degrees during monsoon each year. Following table shows serious floods in the country in the last 25 years with their impact: Table-1 Serious floods in the country in the last 25 years with their impact: Event Impact 1984 flood Inundated over 50,000 sq. km, estimated damage US $ 378 million. Inundated over 50,000 sq. km, estimated damage US$ 1billion, 1987 flood 2,055 deaths. Inundated 61% of the country, estimated damage US$ 1.2 billion, 1988 flood more than 45 million homeless, between 2,000-6,500 deaths. Inundated nearly100,000 sq.km. rendered 30 million people 1998 flood homeless, damaged 500,000 homes, heavy loss to infrastructures, estimated damage US$ 2.8 billion, 1,100 deaths. Inundated 38%, damage US $ 6.6 billion, affected nearly 3.8 2004 flood million people, 700 deaths. Inundated 32,000 sq.km, over 85,000 houses destroyed and almost 1 million damaged, approximately 1.2 million acres of 2007 flood crops destroyed or partially damaged, estimated damage over US$1 billion, 649 deaths. Source: BCCSAP 2009,Ministry of Environment and Forests GOB,p-09

Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surges Severe tropical cyclone hits Bangladesh, on average, every 3 years. These storms generally form in the months just before and after the monsoon and intensify as they move north over the warm waters of the Bay of Bengal. Table-2 illustrates the effects of cyclones/floods from 1970 to 2007 in Bangladesh.

. ‘Impact Assessment of Climate Change and Sea Level Rise on Monsoon flooding ‘ Climate Change Cell, Department of Environment, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh (published in association with DFID and UNDP June 2009).

Table-2 Direct Effects of major Cyclones/Floods in Bangladesh Direct Effects Major Cyclone/Floods in Bangladesh Economic loss (Billion Hazard Year Death (No.) USD) 1970 300,000 2.40 Cyclone* 1991 138,882 1.50 2007 3,406 1.60 1988 2,379 1.20 1998 918 2.80 Flood 2004 285 2.20 2007 707 1.06 * Category 4 Cyclone Source:Disaster Management and Relief Division,MoF&DM

Heavier/Lower and More Erratic Rainfall Heavier and more erratic rainfall in the GBM basin during the monsoon will result in higher river flows, causing over-topping and breaching of embankments and widespread flooding in rural and urban areas. Due to heavy rainfall there will be river bank erosion and increase sedimentation in riverbeds leading to drainage congestion and water logging. On the other hand lower & erratic rainfall will result in increasing droughts, especially in drier northern and western regions of the country.

Temperature This rise of temperature will affect public health. People could be affected by climate change’s impact on disease, and a number of diseases in Bangladesh may become more common due to hotter weather.

River Bank Erosion Climate change is likely to increase rainfall in the GMB basin in the monsoon season. This will result in higher river flows and possibly increased velocities. This is likely to cause further instability in the already unstable river system resulting river bank erosion. According to an estimate of Bangladesh Water Development Board, 1200 km of river bank has already eroded and another 500 km is prone to erosion. Climate change accelerates the process further.

. Pender, J.S. 2008. ‘What is Climate Change? And How it may affect Bangladesh’. Briefing Paper. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Church of Bangladesh Social Development Programme. p. 30 . ‘Climate Change & Vulnerability of Bangladesh’ Climate Change Cell, Department of Environment, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh (published in association with DFID and UNDP , 2009).

Climate Change : Effects on Public Health in Bangladesh: Analysis and Recommendation

Saline Water Intrusion The impact of CC on physical system in combination with the effect of sea level rise would cause a net increase in salinity in the already affected soils in the coastal regions of Bangladesh. Coastal waters will become more saline and soil salinity will increase.10 This will result reduction of net available cultivable land.

Drought Already climate change is thought to be increasing the numbers of droughts for there were only five devastating droughts in the hundred years from 1800 to 1900, yet since 1981, four major droughts have occurred in the last 25 years mostly in north-western Bangladesh.11 During the dry period (November to May) about 2.7 million hectares of land in Bangladesh are vulnerable to annual drought.

Sea Level Rise If sea level rise reaches the one meter mark by 2100 over 10% of Bangladesh lies below this height. Bangladesh has been ranked as the 3rd most vulnerable in the world to sea level rise in terms of the number of people and in the top ten in terms of percentage of population living in the low elevation coastal zone. Sea level rise could potentially force around 33 million of their land by 2050 and up to 43 million of their land by 2080 and this is only taking into account the direct effect of sea level flooding.

Effects on Agriculture Climate change is likely to seriously affect agriculture (crops, livestock and fisheries). The higher temperatures and changing rainfall patterns, coupled with increased flooding, rising salinity in the coastal belt and droughts are likely to reduce crop yields and crop production. IPCC estimates that, by 2050, rice production in Bangladesh could decline by 8% and wheat by 32%.12

Safe Drinking Water Shortage of safe drinking water is likely to become more pronounced, especially in the coastal belt and in drought-prone areas in the north-west of the country. This will impose hardship on women and children, who are responsible for collecting drinking water for their families. Increasingly saline drinking water may also result in health hazards. 13

10. Ibid 11. Pender, J.S. 2008. ‘What is Climate Change? And How it may affect Bangladesh’. Briefing Paper. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Church of Bangladesh Social Development Programme. p. 35 12. Climate change & vulnerability of Bangladesh, op. cit. 13. Climate Change & Water’ Climate Change Cell, Department of Environment, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh (published in association with DFID and UNDP, 2009).

Food Security and Livelihood The effects of climate change will threaten the food security and livelihood of the poor. People living on river islands and along the coastline, are among the poorest people in the country. They will be seriously affected, as will others who lose their land to river erosion. Climate change is likely to threaten food security of Bangladesh.14

Environmental Refugees It has been estimated that there is the impending threat of displacement of more than 20 million people in the event of sea-level change and resulting increase in salinity coupled with impact of increase in cyclones and storm surges, in the near future. The settlement of these environmental refugees will pose a serious problem for the densely populated Bangladesh and migration must be considered as a valid option for the country.

Adverse Effect of Climate Change on Public Health Impacts on Basic Determinants of Health. Climate change will have a number of serious health-related impacts on the population of Bangladesh. The 4th IPCC report indicates that one of the major impacts of global warming and climate will be an increase in vector borne diseases (malaria and dengue fever). Further climate change will also affect, in profoundly adverse ways, some of the most fundamental pre-requisites for health: clean air and water, sufficient food, adequate shelter and freedom from disease.15

Climate Change Effects on Human Health Change in world climate would influence the functioning of many ecosystems and their member species. Likewise, there would be impacts on human health. AR4 of IPCC shows that CC has: a. altered the distribution of some infectious disease vectors; b. altered the seasonal distribution of some allergenic pollen species; and c. increased heat wave-related deaths The evidence so far published indicates that: a. CC is affecting the seasonality of some allergenic species as well as the seasonal activity and distribution of some disease vectors;

14. Climate Change & Food Security’ Climate Change Cell, Department of Environment, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh (published in association with DFID and UNDP , 2009). 15. WHO, 2009’ Protecting Health from Climate Change : Connecting science, Policy and People’, p. 6

Climate Change : Effects on Public Health in Bangladesh: Analysis and Recommendation

b. climate plays an important role in the seasonal pattern or temporal distribution of malaria, dengue, tick-borne diseases, cholera and other diarrhoeal diseases; and c. heat waves and flooding can have severe and long-lasting effects. Relationship Between Climate Change and Human Health Climate change affects human health both directly and indirectly. People are exposed directly to changing weather patterns (temperature, precipitation, sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events) and indirectly through changes in the quality of water, air and food, and changes in ecosystems, agriculture, industry, human settlements and the economy.16 . The relationship between climate change and human health is multidimensional, as shown in Figure-3. Figure- 3 Relationships Between Climate Change and Human Health

Source: Fact Sheet-2 WHO, 2008 (World Health Day, 07 April 2008).

Temperature Related Illness The health impacts associated with heat waves are heat stroke, heat cramps, heat exhaustion deaths related to heat waves, prevalence of diarrhoeal diseases, dehydration and aggravation of cardiovascular diseases in elderly people.17

16. Atiq Rahman, 2008.‘Climate change and its impact on health in Bangladesh’. Regional Health Forum- Volume-12, November 1, 2008 17. Ibid.

Diseases Due to Air pollution & Respiratory Problems Because of CC smog (ground-level ozone) levels are expected to increase as temperatures rise. Smog can irritate the respiratory system, reduce lung capacity, and aggravate asthma. People with existing respiratory or heart problems would be at increased risk.18

Problems Due to Variable Precipitation Patterns Changes in precipitation patterns are likely to compromise the supply of fresh water, thus increasing the risk of waterborne diseases. They are also associated with floods and waterlogging that increase the incidence of diarrhoea, cholera and skin and eye diseases.19

Water and Food Borne Diseases Diseases such as Cholera and Typhoid, which are transmitted through contaminated food or water, could become more widespread with climate change because of increased flooding. This may result from human actions, such as improper disposal of sewrage wastes, or may be due to weather events. Rainfall can influence the transport and dissemination of infectious agents, while temperature affects their growth and survival.

Effects of Food Shortages Rising temperatures and variable precipitation are likely to decrease agricultural production, thereby increasing the risk of malnutrition. Malnutrition will further increase the vulnerability of those affected people to infectious and water- and vector-borne diseases.

Vector-borne Diseases Changes in climate are likely to lengthen the transmission seasons of important vector-borne diseases, and alter their geographic range. Already, dengue is a regular disease in the major cities of Dhaka and Chittagong. Important determinants of vector-borne disease transmission include: a. vector survival and reproduction b. vector’s biting rate and c. pathogen’s incubation rate within the vector organism.

18. US Environment al Protection agency, April 2010.’Climate Change and Health Effect’ available at www. epa.gov/climate change 19. Atiq Rahman, 2008.‘Climate change and its impact on health in Bangladesh’. Regional Health Forum- Vol. 12, 1 November 2008.

Climate Change : Effects on Public Health in Bangladesh: Analysis and Recommendation

Climate Sensitive Diseases There is much evidence of associations between climatic conditions and infectious diseases. Particularly vector-borne diseases are most sensitive to long- term climate change. Excessive monsoon rainfall and high humidity was identified to have a major influence, enhancing mosquito and other vector breeding and survival. Examples of climate sensitive diseases are shown in table-3. Table- 3 Examples Climate Sensitive Diseases Environmental Example disease Pathway of effects change Snail host habitat, human Schistosomiasis contact Dams, canals, Malaria Breeding sites for mosquitoes irrigation Helminthiasies Larvacontact due to moist soil River blindness Blackfly breeding, Disease Crop insectiside and Malaria Agricultural Vactor resistance intensification Venezuelan Rodent abundance, contact haemorraghic fever Sanitation, hygiene, Water Cholera contamination Urbanization, Water-collecting trash, urban crowding Dengue Aedes aegypti mosquito breeding sites Cutaneous leishmaniasis Proximity, sandfly vectors Breeding sites and vectors, Malaria immigration of suscetible Deforestation and people new habitation Oropouche Contact, breeding of vectors Visceral leishmaniasis Contact with sandfly vectors Reforestation Lyme disease Tick hosts, outdoor exposure Ocean warming Red tide Toxic algal blooms Rift valley fever Pools for mosquito breeding Elevated precipitation Hantavirus pulmonary Rodent food, habitat, syndrome abubdance Source :Wilson.M.L. ‘Ecology and infectious diseases in Ecosystem Change and Public Health: A Global Perspective’. , John Hopkins University Press: Baltimore, 2001.

10 Effects due to Rising Sea Levels Rising sea levels increase the risk of coastal flooding, and may necessitate population displacement, and cause many other health-related problems such as cholera, diarrhoea, malnutrition and skin diseases, etc.

Allergic Diseases Climate change could also cause more severe allergy symptoms because a warmer climate is expected to promote the growth of the molds, weeds, grasses, and trees that cause allergic reactions in some people. Climate change has already caused the spring pollen season to begin earlier in North America. Ragweed has been observed to grow faster and flower earlier in urban areas where effects of climate change are enhanced compared with rural areas.20

Burden and Distribution of Diseases and Changing Patterns of Infections Transmission of Diseases Infections caused by pathogens that are transmitted by insect vectors are strongly affected by climatic conditions such as temperature, rainfall and humidity. These diseases include some of the most important current killers: malaria, dengue and other infections carried by insect vectors, and diarrhoea, transmitted mainly through contaminated water.21 There are four main types of transmission cycle for infectious diseases as shown in figure-4

20. US Environment al Protection agency, April 2010.’Climate Change and Health Effect’ available at www. epa.gov/climate change 21. WHO, 2009. ‘Protecting health from Climate change: Connecting science, policy and people.’ WHO, 2009, Geneva, Switzerland.

11 Climate Change : Effects on Public Health in Bangladesh: Analysis and Recommendation

Figure- 4 Main types of transmission cycle for infectious diseases

Source: WHO, 2003. ‘Climate Change& Human Health-Risks and Responses Summary’ . Geneva, Switzerland. P-16 Malaria Malaria distributions are strongly affected by CC. Transmitted by Anopheles mosquitoes, malaria is the most important vector-borne cause of mortality globally. It kills almost 900 thousand people each year, mainly poor children in Africa. Malaria is strongly influenced by climatic conditions; it is not transmitted in the cooler temperatures associated with high altitudes and latitudes., Warmer temperatures, higher humidity and more places where water can collect generally favour malaria transmission. 22 Over 10 million people in the Chittagong Hill Tracts and similar areas are at risk of malaria. Figure-5 shows trend of Malaria in Bangladesh since 1974.

22. WHO, 2009. ‘Protecting health from Climate change: Connecting science, policy and people.’ WHO, 2009, Geneva, Switzerland

12 Figure- 5 Trend of Malaria in Bangladesh since 1974

Source: Climate Change Cell, DoE. ‘Climate Change and Health Impacts in Bangladesh’ June, 2009 Dengue Dengue is expanding rapidly. Transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, dengue is a fast growing health challenge. Like Malaria, the distribution of Dengue is also highly dependent on climate.23 Incidence of Dengue and other climate sensitive diseases in Bangladesh during last few decades is shown in the following table. Table- 4 Incidence of some of the major climate-sensitive diseases in Bangladesh. Total cases per Average annual Disecises Period period cales Diarrhoea 48302636 1988–2005 2842273 Skin diseases 23697833 1988–1996 2623092 Malaria 1018671 1974–2004 33956 Mental disorders 201881 1988–1996 22431 Dengue 19830 1999–2005 3305 Source: Data modified from WHO, 2006; Director-General, Health; 1996, 1997; MoEF,2005

Diarrhoeal Diseases Diarrhoeal diseases remain as one of the biggest killers particularly for children. Viruses and bacteria transmitted through water and contaminated

23. Ibid.

13 Climate Change : Effects on Public Health in Bangladesh: Analysis and Recommendation

food can cause severe diarrhoea in children In countries with inadequate water and sanitation services, diarrhoea is much more common when temperatures are high.24 Recent studies by the International Center for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (ICDDR, B) demonstrate that diarrhoeal diseases increase, with the increase of rainfall.(Illustrated in Figure-6 &7).

Figure- 6 Trend of annual rainfall and diarrhea incidences

Figure- 7 Seasonal incidences of diarrhea

Source(Figure- 6 &7): Climate Change Cell, DoE. ‘Climate Change and Health Impacts in Bangladesh’ June, 2009

24. Ibid.

14 Research also shows that there is definite correlation between climatic parameters and some diseases in Bangladesh. Table-5 illustrates this fact.

Table- 5 Correlation between climate parameters and some diseases in Bangladesh Diseases Climatic Connections Cholera Positively correlated with temperature rise and shiny day Malaria Associated with temperature rise Dengue Associated with temperature rise Kala-azar Associated with temperature rise Source: ICDDRB, 2007; NIPSOM, 2007; BCAS.2007

Kala-azar Kala-azar has reemerged in Bangladesh since the cessation of dichlorodiphenyl- trichloroethane (DDT) spraying operations. At least 20 million people in more than 27 districts of Bangladesh are at risk. The estimated cumulative disease- specific burden is 35000 cases.25 Figure-8 illustrates the trend of kala-azar incidences and annual average temperature. Figure- 8 Trend of annual average max temp and kala-azar incidences

Source: Climate Change Cell, DoE. ‘Climate Change and Health Impacts in Bangladesh’June, 2009

25. Atiq Rahman, 2008.‘Climate change and its impact on health in Bangladesh’. Regional Health Forum- Volume-12, November 1, 2008.

15 Climate Change : Effects on Public Health in Bangladesh: Analysis and Recommendation

Filariasis Filariasis is caused by nematode worms (W.bancrofti, B,malayi & B.timori). All three infections are transmitted to the man by the bites of infective mosquitoes(mainly Culex) Climate is an important factor in the epidemiology of Filariasis . The maximum prevalence was observed when the temperature was between 22 to 38 degree C.26

Skin Diseases In a study carried out by BCAS and NIPSOM supported by Climate change cell skin diseases were found to be positively correlated with temperature differential (difference between maximum and minimum temperature based on daily records per year) in both Rajshahi and Satkhira.27 (Table-4 & Figure-9). Figure- 9 Trend of annual average maximum temperature and skin diseases

Source: Climate Change Cell, DoE. ‘Climate Change and Health Impacts in Bangladesh’June, 2009 Malnutrition Malnutrition and under nutrition and related disease is currently the greatest contributor to the global burden of disease, killing an estimated 3.5 million people per year, mostly children in developing countries.28 In Bangladesh malnutrition was found to have highest occurrences during post-monsoon in early years of the last decade while it was highest in monsoon during 2nd half of the last decade. Study reveals that Malnutrition incidences were also found to have positive correlation (+0.03)29 ( figure-10).

26. K.Park,Park’s ‘Text Book of Preventive and Social Medicine’ 20 th edition, 2009. 27. Climate Change Cell DoE. ‘Climate Change and Health Impacts in Bangladesh’ June, 2009 28. WHO, 2009’ Protecting Health from Climate Change :Connecting science, Policy and People’, 29. Climate Change Cell, DoE. ‘Climate Change and Health Impacts in Bangladesh’ June, 2009

16 Figure- 10 Trend of annual average maximum temperature and malnutrition

Source: Climate Change Cell, DoE. ‘Climate Change and Health Impacts in Bangladesh’ June, 2009

New & Unfamiliar Diseases Some infectious disease once thought to be conquered have returned with a vengeance. New and previously unknown diseases continue to emerge. Increased exposure of humans to disease vectors and reservoirs of infection in nature is one of the factors responsible for that. Any disease caused, transmitted or harboured by insects, snails and other cold-blooded animals can be affected by a CC. However, studies are required to find out the correlation with CC.

Vulnerable Population Due to Climate Change All populations will be affected by a changing climate, but the initial health risks vary greatly. Health effects are expected to be more severe for elderly people, individuals without adequate shelter and people with infirmities or pre-existing medical conditions. The groups who are likely to bear most of the resulting disease burden are children and the poor, especially poor women.

Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP)s In 2005, the Government of Bangladesh developed the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) after extensive consultations with communities across the country, professional groups; and other members of civil society. Subsequently, the Government has developed the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) in 2008 which was revised in 2009 as BCCSAP 2009 to address adverse effects of climate change including variability

17 Climate Change : Effects on Public Health in Bangladesh: Analysis and Recommendation

and extreme events based on existing coping mechanisms and practices. The BCCSAP 2009 is based on six pillars. They are: a. food security, social protection and health, b. comprehensive disaster management, c. infrastructure, d. research and knowledge management, e. mitigation and low carbon development and f. capacity building and institutional strengthening There are 44 programmes in the strategy which will be implemented under overall guidance of the National Environment Committee, chaired by the Honorable Prime Minister. GOB has recently established a National Climate Change Fund with initial capitalization of $45 million which later on raised to $100 million. This will mainly focus on various adaptation measures. Adaptation to CC will place a massive burden on Bangladesh’s development budget. So international and regional support will be required to face these challenges. GOB expects that all development partners will contribute to this fund and offer all possible support in this regard.

RECOMMENDATIONS

National 1. Diarrhoea & other waterborne diseases and most of the climate –sensitive diseases are major public health problems in Bangladesh. To address these problems strengthening of institutional capacity needs to be considered on an urgent basis. 2. Government agencies should initiate surveillance measures for climate sensitive diseases separately and develop a dataset for climate-sensitive diseases, as well as vector data based on geographical distribution to facilitate further research and prediction. 3. Health professionals need to be trained on prompt diagnosis and proper management of the climate change related diseases. 4. The government should initiate training programmes on different awareness raising activities highlighting the CC impacts on human health and improvement hygienic practices. 5. Water supply and sanitation management should be improved by protecting water resources and involving Public Health Engineering Department. 6. Government needs to strengthen the research activities to find out the changes in infectious disease transmission patterns of the climate sensitive diseases.

18 7. Food security, health and social protection to the poorest and most vulnerable in society, including women and children, are to be ensured. 8. Comprehensive Disaster Management systems need to be further strengthened to deal with increasingly frequent and severe natural calamities as per the guidelines mentioned in BCCSAP 2009. Regional 9. Establishment of regional platform and initiation of a process and mechanism within SAARC member countries to address climate change issues focusing the problems related to climate-sensitive diseases collectively and develop a proposal for collective action. Global 10. Global community should advocate for a strong and equitable post- Kyoto Agreement and promote a “health-oriented” agreement. Protecting health and well-being should be one of the main objectives of the new agreement. World Health Organization 11. Should provide specific climate change–related technical guidance for vulnerability and adaptation assessments and surveillance systems to quantify the disease burden; 12. Should facilitate greater contribution of fund from donor agencies for climate change health related programme; 13. Should support Bangladesh technically, financially and by providing training to build national capacities; 14. Should develop and provide technical guidance on good adaptation and GHG emission reduction practices within the health sector; and 15. Should establish national & regional WHO collaborating centers on climate change and health. CONCLUSION Global warming has affected weather patterns and disrupted the variability and trends in climate. This is resulting in an increase in CC related to extreme events like increased temperature, heavy rainfall, drought, flood, cyclones, storm surges, SLR etc. The changing climate inevitably affects the basic determinants and some of the most fundamental pre-requisites for health: clean air and water, sufficient food, adequate shelter and freedom from diseases. CC also alters the

19 Climate Change : Effects on Public Health in Bangladesh: Analysis and Recommendation

distribution of some infectious disease vectors, the seasonal distribution of some allergenic pollen species and increases heat wave-related sickness including deaths. The unique geographical location, low and almost flat topography, very high population density, etc. have made Bangladesh one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to be affected by CC. In particular, the coastal areas of the country are more vulnerable. Bangladesh is already facing the harmful impacts of CC in the form of erratic rainfall, flooding, water logging, river bank erosion, tropical cyclones/storm surges, drought, saline water intrusion etc. . CC affects human health both directly and indirectly. These direct and indirect exposures can cause death, disability and suffering. The major diseases that are most sensitive to climate change are diarrhoeal diseases including Cholera, vector-borne diseases like Malaria, Dengue, Filariasis, Kala-azar, infections associated with malnutrition and skin diseases. New and previously unknown diseases will continue to emerge. Increased exposure of humans to disease vectors and reservoirs of infection in nature due to CC is one of the factors responsible for that. All populations will be affected by a changing climate, but the initial health risks vary greatly. Health effects are expected to be more severe for elderly people and people with infirmities or pre-existing medical conditions. The groups who are likely to bear most of the resulting disease burden are children and the poor, especially poor women. Adaptive strategies intended to protect public health will be needed. Building capacity is an essential preparatory step. Against this backdrop GOB has developed BCCSAP 2009 to address adverse effects of climate change including variability and extreme events based on existing coping mechanisms and practices. Adaptation to CC will place a massive burden on Bangladesh’s development budget. So international and regional support will be required to face these challenges.

20 BIBLIOGRAPHY

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21 Climate Change : Effects on Public Health in Bangladesh: Analysis and Recommendation

14. Alley, R.B et al, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Summary for Policymakers, IPCC Secretariat : Geneva, Switzerland. 2007. 15. Ali Anwar, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Assessment in Bangladesh, Space Research and Remote Sensing Organisation Climate Research Paper, Volume 12, August 1999. 16. Bangladesh Capacity Development Action Plan for Sustainable Environmental Governance, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Dhaka, December 2007. 17. Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 2009, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Dhaka, September 2009. 18. Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 2008, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Dhaka, September 2008. 19. Barnett Jon, Security and Climate Change, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Working Paper 7, October 2001. 20. Climate Change Cell ‘Climate Change and Bangladesh,’ Climate Change Cell, Department of Environment,Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, August 2009. 21. Climate Change Cell, Climate Change and Health Impacts in Bangladesh, Climate Change Cell, Department of Environment, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, June 2009. 22. Climate Change Cell, Climate Change and its Impact on transmission of Cholera. Climate Change Cell, Department of Environment, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, June 2009. 23. Climate Change Cell, Climate Change, Gender and Vulnerable groups in Bangladesh, Climate Change Cell, Department of Environment, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, June 2009. 24. Climate Change Cell, Impact Assessment of Climate Change and Sea Level rise on Monsoon flooding, Climate Change Cell, Department of Environment, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, June, 2009. 25. Climate Change Cell, Characterizing Climate Change and Bangladesh long –term Changes of Bangladesh Climate in context of agriculture and Irrigation, Climate Change Cell, Department of Environment, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, June 2009. 26. Climate Change Cell, Climate Change &Vulnerability of Bangladesh, Climate Change Cell, Department of Environment, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, 2009.

22 27. Climate Change Cell, Climate Change & Agriculture, Climate Change Cell, Department of Environment, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, 2009. 28. Climate Change Cell, Role of Government Officials in Climate Change & Disaster Management, Climate Change Cell, Department of Environment, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, 2009. 29. Directorate General of Health Services, MoH&FW, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Global Climate Change: Health Impacts on Bangladesh, Pocket Book 2009.(available at www.dghs.bd.bd) 30. Patwary Obaydul Hoque,The Security Dimensions of Climate Change ,Peace and Security Review, Vol. 2, No. 2, 2nd Quarter, 2009. 31. Pender, J.S. ‘What is Climate Change? And How it may affect Bangladesh’. Briefing Paper, Dhaka, Bangladesh: Church of Bangladesh Social Development Programme, 2008. 32. Rahman Atiq, Climate Change and its Impact on Health in Bangladesh, Regional Health Forum-Volume12, November, 2008. 33. Rahman Atiq, Bangladesh Erosion and Flood, by Pressure works, published 27 September 2006. 34. World Bank Report, Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Migration and Conflict 35. GTZ Report on Climate Change and Security, International Peace Academy 2008. 36. World Health Organization ‘Climate Change & Human Health –Risks and Responses (Summary), Geneva, Switzerland 2003. 37. World Health Organization ‘Protecting Health from Climate Change : Connecting science, Policy and People’, Geneva, Switzerland, 2009. 38. World Health Organization ‘Protecting Health from Climate Change, FactSheet- 2, Regional Office South-East Asia, 2008. Articles 39. Dhaka Courier, Climate Change to Unleash Various Diseases Bangladesh, 18 December, 2010. 40. Dhaka Courier, Climate Catastrophe in Bangladesh: A Burning Political Issue, 09 April, 2010. 41. India Today, Climate Change: Copenhagen, 21 December 2009. 42. Probe, Passing on the Buriganga Buck, 05-11 February 2010. 43. The Daily Star, Paul B K, Climate Refugees: The Bangladesh Case, 06 March 2010.

23 Climate Change : Effects on Public Health in Bangladesh: Analysis and Recommendation

44. The Daily Star, Biodiversity for Life and Livelihood, 12 June, 2010. 45. The Daily Star, Saving Biodiversity, Managing Ecosystems, 12 June, 2010. 46. The Economist, Briefing The Science of Climate Change, 20 March 2010. Websites 47. Centre of Global Change and Health : http//www.cgch.lshtm.ac.uk/ 48. Climate Action Network: http//www.climatenetwork.org 49. Climate Change Cell: http://www.climatechangecell-bd.org/ 50. Directorate General of Health Services: http//www.dghsgob.bd 51. GTZ, Climate Change and Security, http://www.gtz.de/ 52. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) :http://ipcc.ch 53. World Health Organization (WHO): http//www.who.int/globalchange/climate/en/index.html 54. WHO Regional Office for South-East Asia: http//www.searo.who.int

Author Brigadier General A K M Fariduzzaman, ndc was born in 24 November 1953. After graduation from Sher-e-Bangla Medical College, Barisal in 1978 and completion of In-service Trainee he was commissioned in Army Medical Corps in September 1980 as GDMO. He served as RMO of an Infantry Battalion in Chittagong Hill Tracts, MO of three Rifle Battalions and SMO of Khulna Sector in Bangladesh Rifles. He also served as Commanding Officer of a Field Ambu- lance and three CMHs including CMH Chittagong. In addition to regimental staff appointments, he was GSO-2 (Trg) AFMI and Chief Instructor of AMCCS. He also held the appointment of ADMS of an Infantry Division and ADMS, Army HQ. Brigadier General Farid worked as Commanding Officer of BANMED-1 UNMIL Liberia. He was a member of “Hajj Medical Team” in KSA in 1994. He attended many courses at home and abroad including “Potential Platoon Com- manders Course” in BMA, “AMEDD Officers Advance Course” & “Medical Effects of Nuclear Weapon” course in USA and “Medical Aspects of Defence Against Chemical Weapon” course in Islamic Republic of Iran. He holds a Masters Degree in Public Health from Dhaka University. He has visited many

24 countries of the world. He is happily married and has three daughters. His hobbies include reading, sports and listening music. Before joining the National Defence Course, he was Director of Chittagong Medical College Hospital, the second largest hospital of the country. Presently he is working as Director of Sir Salimullah Medical College and Hospital, Dhaka.

25 COMBATING TERRORISM : REGIONAL TASK FORCE IN SOUTH ASIA

Brigadier General G M Quamrul Islam, ndc, psc

INTRODUCTION Terrorism is not a new phenomenon. Its origin can be traced long back in the history. However, its expression has been gradually increasing in intensity, complexity and dimensions in many folds with the passage of time. In the contemporary world, more than hundred states have either experienced or dealt with some form of low intensity conflicts (LIC) like insurgency, terrorism or militancy. On the other hand, terrorists are non-state actors that are elusive with a global reach, estimated to be in 60 countries. South Asia is no exception to terrorism or militancy threat. The spectre of transnational terrorism has risen from peripheral issue of 1980’s to one of the foremost security challenges facing the SAARC region collectively. Terrorism and militancy of the region have their origin in socio-economic, politico-cultural, ethno-racial and religious discriminations and deprivations. These countries are putting huge efforts and resources in combating terrorism in their own ways mostly as an individual entity and occasionally with bilateral approach like Myanmar-India joint operations and Bangladesh-India joint patrolling, etc. But all these attempts could give hardly any dividends; rather intensity of terrorism is on the rise in the region. Thus, in all probability, terrorism and counter terrorism (CT) in South Asia is going to be a long-drawn and costly affair. Here comes the requirement of a collective approach. All the SAARC countries have recognized this and they have signed a number of protocols to that effect. All the governments of Bangladesh have been pursuing this agenda. But the idea got momentum in the beginning of 2009 as Bangladesh put forward a suggestion to create a Counter Terrorism Task Force (CTTF) manned by security personnel from all South Asian countries.

. Barrister Harun Ur Rashid, “South Asian Task Force Against Terrorism”, Dhaka Courier, February 27, 2009. . Brig Gen (Retd) Arun Sahgal, “Combating Terrorism in South Asia - State Response to Terrorism”, The Daily Star, November 12, 2005. . Indo-Asian News service, “India-Myanmar to Jointly Fight Northeast Rebels”, The Daily Star, March 1, 2010. . Air Cdre (Retd) Ishfaq Ilahi Choudhury, “National Security: Bangladesh Perspective”, The Daily Star, March 6, 2010. . Staff Correspondent, “Unity Among South Asian Nations Vital to Fight Militancy”, The Daily Star, February 21, 2010.

26 There is no denying the fact that the countries suffer from serious mistrust and fear of suppression by the greater and powerful neighbours, which has to be removed from their minds as an essential precondition for having an effective CTTF. To achieve that goal, research and engagement at all levels are also essential. This study intends to examine the concept of a CTTF in South Asia.

Terrorism and CT Efforts in South Asia There exist a wide gap in understanding of terrorism between the countries and people. Western world led by the United States, tries to include all forms of destructive activities including armed struggle against aggressor as terrorist activities. Actually, the collapse of the Soviet Union has undermined the Marxist, Leninist concept of armed struggle, which overthrew numerous old regimes. On the other hand, the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) of 56 Muslim states, has recognized the right to armed struggle. The OIC convention on combating International Terrorism (1998) stated in unambiguous terms that struggle of people including armed struggle against foreign occupation, aggression, colonialism and hegemony aimed at liberation and self determination in accordance with the principles of international law would not be considered as a terrorist crime. Despite these developments, international law has not yet depilated the right to armed struggle. In 1974, the UN General Assembly passed historic Resolution 3314, adopting the definition of Aggression that included the right to armed struggle and treaty acts of aggression as crimes against peace. Besides the UN, various international organizations and institutions have often been reaffirming the right of self-determination against colonial and racist regimes and other forms of alien domination. One should be able to identify the crucial difference between two kinds of violence, e.g. by patriots at war and by murderers. Resorting to violence against innocent unarmed citizens by terrorist groups for achieving political ends in a democracy where free and fair elections prevail is an illegitimate and unjustifiable use of violence. There exists differences of opinion on the definition and understanding of terrorism among the SAARC countries. On paper, India is closer to Anglo-American definitions of terrorism than Pakistan.10 However, for a common understanding of the terms, all activities of violence against innocent and unarmed humanity may be termed as terrorist activities. Bangladesh unequivocally condemns terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. . Dr. Laquat Ali Khan, “The Changing Law of Armed Struggle”, The Daily Star, September 02, 2005. . Ibid. . Ibid. . Lt Gen E A Vas, pvsm, The Search for Security: Controlling Conflict and Terrorism, Natraj Publishers, Dehardun, p.121. 10. M.J. Akbar, “Little Pakistan’s Big India Problem”, The Daily Star, March 24, 2010.

27 Combating Terrorism : Regional Task Force in South Asia

Initial terrorist organizations of modern Indian subcontinent were centered in and around Bengal. The Ghader (rebellion) Party (1912-25) was the Panjabi complement to Bengali terrorist. The year 1967 saw an uprising of peasants in the small North Bengal village on Naxalbari near Siliguri, but spread to the tribal areas and cities elsewhere to carryout terrorism and urban violence. As insurgency movements started cooking up in different parts of the region in late 50s and early 60s, expression of terrorist activities were also noticed in the society. A close look into the South Asian insurgencies reveals that many of these movements initially appeared with the demand for more right and autonomy and hardly had any claim for secession. However, in the process of fighting for limited socio-political rights, they gained momentum and ultimately turned into insurgency movements involving wide scale terrorism and violence.

Terrorism in Newer Form Like other parts of the world, the South Asian terrorists are also trying to acquire chemical, biological and radiological or nuclear weapons or even high yield explosive. After having experienced a couple of terrorist attacks with Chemical and biological weapons in Japan in the 1990s, nuclear terrorism are now seen as the only taboo left. Presence of insecure nuclear facilities containing tons of fissile materials in USSR, or states like North Korea and Pakistan or individuals inside these countries make this possibility stronger.11 Their violence may be seen in a greater scale in the sea and air along with land operations. Expansion of cyber terrorism cannot be ignored. New style of terrorism is likely to be more dangerous and more deadly.12 They are likely to increase their destructive activities on every field of economic and development agenda like the flow of goods, services and people; trade, business and financial activities including securing their own illegal money movements/ laundering, etc.

CT Efforts All the countries of South Asia are expending huge resources and efforts to overcome the problems of terrorism and militancy. Still many say,’’ Quite dismayingly, the governments of South Asia have taken very little initiatives to combat terrorism in their respective countries either individually or

11 Ton Sauer, “A Second Revolution: From Nuclear Primacy to Post-Existential Deterrence”, The Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol-32, No-5, October 2009, p. 755. 12 ‘’New Style Terrorism can be more Dangerous”, The Daily Independent, May 04, 1999.

28 collectively”.13 As terrorism in South Asia could not be tackled by the respective countries, a common and collective strategy is needed.

Cooperation Within and Outside Almost all South Asian countries are part of certain regional and international mechanisms to fight terrorism. India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan have established notable cooperation with USA and her partners for fighting against terrorism. Even Nepal, Bhutan and Maldives have also established relations on this issue with those countries. The USA is imparting training, providing technological and other forms of assistance on CT. The regional countries have also established bi-lateral cooperation among themselves on terrorism. Another international dimension of CT strategy in South Asia has revealed recently as the Indian Prime Minister expressed Indian interest to play a role in containing terrorism in Pakistan, Afghanistan and other neighbouring countries and the USA was interested to provide technical and technological support to India in this regard. 14 India had sent armed forces to Sri Lanka and Maldives for fighting terrorist elements in 1986 and 1987 respectively. Possibility of cooperation on CT in South Asia is bright, if handled properly by the parties concerned.

Efforts under SAARC South Asian leaders kept terrorism in the agenda of first SAARC summit and set up a study group to examine the problem and came up with some recommendations. After nearly two years of deliberations, a SAARC convention on prevention and suppression of terrorism was signed in 1987. They also felt and decided to update the convention on account of the obligations on member states in terms of UN Security Council Resolution 1373 (September 28, 2001) and the international convention for the suppression of financing of terrorism. As such, an additional protocol was signed in the Twelfth Summit. Some other major steps taken under SAARC are: 15 • The first SAARC Conference of Home Ministers convened in Dhaka on May 11, 2006 and adopted a nine point resolution to fight terrorism and drug trafficking. • The SAARC Terrorist Offences Monitoring Desk (STOMD) has been established in Colombo to collect, collate, analyze and disseminate information about the terrorist incidents, tactics, strategies and methods. • Cooperation among Liaison Officers (Anti Terrorist Law Enforcement Offices) has been developed through holding international meeting at regular intervals to monitor, evaluate and improve counter terrorism strategies.

13. Md Shamsul Islam, “Combating Terrorism is South Asia: Problems and Prospects”, The Daily Star, November 12, 2005. 14. The Daily Prothom Alo, November 24, 2009. 15. Md Shamsul Islam, op. cit.

29 Combating Terrorism : Regional Task Force in South Asia

• The document adopted in the Colombo Summit in 2008 was titled, “Partners for Growth of Our People” and much of the document focused on counter terrorism through sharing sensitive information and meeting of intelligence chiefs twice a year instead of annually. 16 • The leaders have given their commitment to make SAARC effective and vibrant regional body in the Silver Jubilee years of SAARC Summit in Thimpu, Bhutan in April 2010. They have adopted 36 Points Thimpu declarations and emphasized the need to develop a "Vision Statement". They have agreed to form a "South Asia Forum" with eminent personalities from diverse background and provide inputs based on a holistic understanding for chartering out the future course of SAARC in the medium and long terms and recommend requisite improvement in the existing mechanism. They emphasized that the linkage between terrorism, illegal trafficking in drugs, psychotropic substances, arms and explosives, etc should be addressed in a comprehensive manner. 17 • By this time, SAARC could conclude cooperation agreements with various agencies of the UN and other organizations. Theoretical Reflection on Concept of CTTF

Means to Fight Terrorism Terrorism is not only a security issue but also a social one and therefore, fighting against it demands involvement of all available means. Brigadier General Arun Sahgal of Indian Army has mentioned about following five means in this regards: 18 • Military Response • Political Response • Accommodation/ Accord • Third Party Mediation • Civil Society Intervention

16 Abdur Rob Khan, “Counter Terrorism Strategy of Bangladesh: National and International Dimensions” Discussion Papers. NSI, 2009. 17 The Thimpu Declaration of SAARC, April 29, 2010. 18 Brigadier General (Retired) Arun Sahgal, op. cit.

30 Along with above mentioned five means, others measures like media campaign, people’s participation, intelligence warfare, diplomatic efforts, etc also play vital role in combating terrorist.

CT Strategy CT strategy should have at least two elements e.g. anti-terrorist measures and CT measures. The first one relates to defensive measures to reduce vulnerability of individuals and properties from terrorist and the second deals with offensive measures taken to prevent, pursue and respond to terrorism. However, the general strategy of CT is to prevent, protect, pursue and respond to terrorist activities. It may consist of three elements: short term, mid term and long term measures. It includes prevention of new recruits, protect potential targets, pursue and investigate the existing network and finally improve the capacity to respond to terrorist acts. CT strategy has to be developed and applied in people-friendly setting with democratic institutions, a well-functioning justice system, responsible courts, open and accountable law enforcement agencies and sensible legislation. Otherwise, the fact of abuses may turn out to be a self-fulfilling prophesy. 19

Characteristic of RTF An effective TF should have following characteristics: 20 • Have all required elements like military, police and security personnel, NGO, humanitarian, human rights, gender, political, legal and others. • Sufficiently flexible to meet a wide variety of contingencies, ranging from humanitarian assistance to peace enforcement or intervention missions. • Quick to organize, deploy and be mobile. • Self sustainable for the initial stages and considerable logistic and maintenance capabilities to sustain on a multinational basis. • Rapid reaction capability which demands elements such as early warning, effective decision making process, strong C3 structures, ability to transport equipment and personnel, adequate logistic support and finances and well trained personnel. • Interoperability, including interoperable communication to achieve unity of effort. • Intelligence capabilities to be operative effectively. • Capacity to meet future threat of all forms and styles.

19. The Daily Star, April 13, 2009. 20. Vanessa Kent and Mark Malan. “The African Standby Force: Progress and Prospects,” p.73, available at http://www.shirbrig.org/kentmalan_essay.pdf, accessed on August 05, 2010.

31 Combating Terrorism : Regional Task Force in South Asia

History of Collective Approach The idea of rapidly deployable collective force is nothing new. Even the Mughal Emperor Akbar introduced such concept through the Mansabdari system.21 In the modern time in April 1947, the UN’s Military Staff Committee published a report on the question of contributions of armed forces to the Security Council in light of Chapter VII of the Charter. However, owing to significant disagreements among the permanent five members about the size and composition of national contribution, the whole endeavour was abandoned. 22 Again, in 1972, the then UN Secretary General Bouttros Ghali called for a system, by which governments commit themselves to keep a force standby at an agreed period of notice, especially trained units for peacekeeping services. The UN Standby Arrangements System (UNSAS) launched in the mid 90s is basically a database of military, civil police and civil assets and other expertise indicated by Government to be available for rapid deployment to PKO. In 2000, the Brahimi report 23 linked the issue of standby arrangements to regional cooperation and also suggested that if a brigade (approximately of 5000 troops) is required to effectively deter or deal with spoilers of a peace process, the military component of that operation ought to deploy as a brigade formation; but not as a collection of battalions that are unfamiliar with one another’s doctrine, leadership and operational practices. If the brigade would have to come from a group of countries, they have to be working together to develop common training and equipment standards, common doctrine and common arrangements for the operational control of the force. 24 There is also an existing model of a rapid deployment structure e.g. The Standby High Readiness Brigade (SHIRBRIG) established in 1996 to provide the UN with a non-standing multinational brigade at high readiness based on the UNSAS. SHIRBRIG has a permanent planning element (PLANELM) based in Denmark. 25 Proposed CTTF of South Asia can develop its rapid deployment structure on this model.

Study of Regional / Collective Approach There are examples of deeper security system including terrorism like EU, AU, ASEAN, etc. and also functional agencies on CT and related issues like APEC-CTTF, ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), Organization for Security and

21. K Ali “History of Indian Sub Continent”, Dhaka, Ali Publication, 1990, p. 353 22. Vanessa Kent and Mark Malan, op.cit 23. Available at http://www.globalsolutions.org/issues/surrany-brahimi-report, accessed on August 05, 2010. 24. Ibid, p. 76 25. Ibid, p. 76

32 Cooperation in Europe(OSCE), Organization of American States (OAS), UN Action on CT, UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), G8’s CT Assistance Group (CTAG), Financial Action Task Force (FATF) on Money-Laundering, International Maritime Organization (IMO), World Customs Organization (WCO) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), etc. For this study, regional security cooperation like EU, AU and CT related initiatives like APEC- CTTF, ASC, ARF, OAS, CECI, commonwealth of independent states etc will be relevant.

The European Union and Collective Security System European Union has developed a viable common security and defence policy along with a military force. European Union forces have been deployed on Peace Keeping Operation from Africa to the former Yugoslavia and the Middle East. 26 Predecessors of European Union used to consider NATO (21 members from EU) as appropriate and sufficient for defence purposes. But following the Kosovo War in 1999, the European Council agreed that “the Union must have the capacity for autonomous action backed by credible military forces in order to respond international crises without prejudice to action by NATO”. To that end, a number of efforts were made to increase the EU’s military capability, notably the Helsinki Headline Goal process. After much discussion, the most concrete result was the EU Battle Groups Initiative, each of which was planned to be able to deploy quickly about 1500 personnel.27 EU Military Operations (EUMO) is supported by a number of bodies including the European Defence Agency (EDA), satellite centre (EUSC) and the military staff. Earlier, the Western European Union (WEU) was a security organization related to the EU. In 1992, the WEU’s relationship with EU was defined, when EU undertook “Petersburg tasks”. These tasks were later transferred from the WEU to the EU by Amsterdam Treaty and now partly formed by the common Foreign and Security Policy and common Security and Defence Policy.

The ASEAN and Security Community (ASC) In the Ninth Summit in Bali, the ASEAN leaders decided to establish ASC along with its economic and socio-cultural communities with the aim of promoting an ASEAN wide political and security cooperation in consonance with ASEAN Vision 2020. The aim of the community is to ensure that countries in the region live at peace with one another and also with the world in a just, democratic and 26. Council of the European Union, “European Union Security and Defence Operations”, Available at Europa web Portal, Retrieved June 26, 2007, accessed on July 10, 2010. 27. Council of the European Union, “Military Capabilities”, Available at Europa Web Portal, Retrieved October 9, 2007, accessed on July 30, 2010.

33 Combating Terrorism : Regional Task Force in South Asia

harmonious environment. It works on shared norms and rules of good conduct in inter state relation, effective conflict prevention and resolution mechanisms and post conflict peace building activities.

ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) ASEAN countries have gone beyond ASEAN region and formed ARF for promoting peace and security through dialogue and cooperation in the Asia Pacific. Its objectives are: • To foster constructive dialogue and consultation on political and security issues of common interest and concern; • To make significant contributions to the effort towards confidence building and preventive diplomacy in the Asia-Pacific region. ARF has members from North-East and South-East Asia as well as Oceania which include besides ASEAN members, Australia, Bangladesh, Brunei, Darussalam, Cambodia, Canada, China, EU, India, Indonesia, Japan, New Zealand, Pakistan, Russian Federation, Sri Lanka, USA and others. Despite the great diversity of its membership, the forum has attained a record of achievements that have contributed to the maintenance of peace, security and cooperation in the region. The chairman of the ASEAN Standing Committee chaired the ARF. Four SAARC members as well as Myanmar are working with ARF.

The AU and African Standby Force (ASF) Besides the UN and other initiatives, African countries were trying to sort out their problems since long. Having failed to reach agreement on the structure of an Inter African Force, the OAU occasionally undertook monitoring tasks such as the Bamako Ceasefire Commission in 1963, the Pan-African Peacekeeping Force in Shaba Province of Congo (Kinshasa) in 1978-79, the Chadian Operation in 1979-82. 28 But efforts to find out a viable option were on. As follow up of 1990 Summit, the African Heads of States could adopt the Cairo Declaration of 1993 establishing the OAU’s Mechanism for Conflict Prevention, Management and Resolution. It could establish the Central Organ, the Secretary General and the Conflict Management Centre (CMC) and could intervene in a number of conflicts e.g. Angola, Burundi, Central African Republic, Comoros, DRC, Rwanda, Somalia and also in Ethiopia - Eritrea. It could send five PKO namely Rwanda (NMOG I and II), Burundi (OMIB), the Comoros (OMIC I, II and III), DRC (JMC) and Ethiopia - Eritrea (OLMEE) with budgets ranged from $

28. Takkie Cilliers and Mark Malan, “Progress with the African Standby Force”, Occasional Paper 98, May 2005 of the Institute of Security Studies (ISS), Pretoria, South Africa available at http://www.isn.ethz. ch/isn/current-affairs/policy-brief/.... accessed on August 05, 2010.

34 105,000 to around $3 million. 29 But this arrangement also seemed to be adhoc and inadequate and called for a reassessment in subsequent years. On the other hand, after failing in Somalia (1963) and Rwanda (1994), for some time the UN showed less interest to resolve conflicts in Africa. In this situation, regional organization in West and South-West Africa, led by Nigeria, South Africa and Zimbabwe showed greater willingness to launch peace operations. However, with the transformation of OAU into the African Union (AU) in Durban in 2002, a drastic development took place. Pursuant to Article 5 (2) of the Constitutive Act, the Protocol on the Peace and Security Council (PSC) was established. To follow up the process and coordinate further details, the African Chief of Defence Staff (ACDS) met twice in Addis Ababa in May 2003 and January 2004 and then African Ministers of Defence met on January 20, 2004. Finally in July 2004, in Addis Ababa, the African Head of States approved the policy framework of the ASF and the military Staff Committee. They also approved to establish a Specialized Technical Committee comprising Ministers responsible for Defence and Security of the AU to work with the PSC to follow up on the establishment of the ASF and give authority to the Chairperson to finalize Memoranda of Understanding (MOU) between the AU and the region to guide relations between various bodies. They asked for financial support from G-8 countries and could receive their commitment in Evian in June 2003. The plan involves the establishment of regionally based standby brigades (3500-5000 troops), where each participating country is required to pledge soldiers and logistical support. It also calls for a multi-disciplinary capacity encompassing NGOs, humanitarian, human rights, gender, political and legal dimensions of peace operations, as well as the civilian police and security sector component. 30 Full implementation would entail the five sub-regions developing Rapid Deployment Capabilities of approximately 1500 troops each (total 7500) that could deploy within 14 days.31 Out of five regional brigades e.g. East, West, North, South and Central African brigade; the West African e.g. ECOWAS Brigade (ECOBRIG), the SADC Brigade (SADCBRIG) and the East African Brigade (EASBRIG) have made good progress. On the other hand, Central Africa (ECCAS) has formed the Multinational Forces of Central Africa (FOMAC) with French assistance and north has formed the North African Regional Capability (NARC) which basically functions as the sub-regional standby brigades. That means, ASF has still a long way to go, probably it will take longer time (even up to 2020). 32

29. Ibid. 30. Vanessa Kent and Mark Malan, op.cit. 31. Stephen Burgess, “The African Standby Force-Sub regional Commands and African Militaries”, available at http://www.au.af.mil/awc/africom/ documents/ burgesssubregional/ commands. pdf, accessed on August 05, 2010. 32. Vanessa Kent and Mark Malan, op. cit.

35 Combating Terrorism : Regional Task Force in South Asia

APEC - CTTF APEC leaders have pledged to help secure the region’s people and its economy, save financial systems from terrorist attack on abuse, trade based money laundering etc and established CTTF in May 2003. CT Action Plan was developed in 2003 as a tool for tracking the progress of economies in implementing leader’s direction on security and counter terrorism related programmes. One of the key CT priorities of APEC is the “Secure Trade in the APEC Region (STAR)” initiative which aims to secure and enhance the flow of goods and people through measures that promote cargo, ship, international aviation and people in transit. Since 2003, every year Annual APEC STAR Conference is organized with executives and government officials to identify impediments and solutions.. It has also endorsed the best practised document on the protection of the critical energy infrastructure. All these programs have given the participants the skills, knowledge and tools to work and valuable learning experience on specific field on CT and also helped in building confidence in each others’ systems. 33

OAS, CIS and Southeastern European Cooperative Initiative (SECI) The OAS has formed an inter-American Committee against-terrorism (CICTE), which is charged with facilitating information exchange, creating proposals for strengthening anti-terrorism legislation, assisting members in ascension to, and compliance with all relevant international conventions and treaties, and facilitating capacity building and training exercises for the members. The CIS has taken a more direct approach to combat terrorism. Its anti- terrorism centre (ATC) houses a database of terrorists, terrorist organizations, and financing structures and also coordinates anti-terrorist operations. Member states of SECI have created a working group Anti-Terrorism Task Force (ATTF) through the Bucharest Declaration. It has three sub-groups focusing on trans-national issues of anti-terrorism, small arms and light weapons, and weapon of mass destruction.

Suggested Model for South Asia From this study of available materials and models, following observations/ line of actions may be drawn:

• Terrorism is a regional and global security issue. Each of the governments should contribute its stake in the regional efforts.

33. http://www.apec-org/apec/apec-groups/CTTF-APEC

36 • Each of the existing regional approach has followed its own concept having very less commonalities. The EU has adopted a force level of battle group, whereas AU adopted brigade level on regional basis. On the other hand, the ASEAN has gone for security community concept. Others cooperate in various fields like intelligence sharing, capacity building, etc. Thus, RTF should be area specific. • Existing bodies having force deal with peace and security. On the other hand, those deal with terrorism alone have adopted different level of co-operations. They serve as regional central clearing house of terrorist and anti-terrorist data. They have physical centre, staffed by real people and charged with a mission e.g. the creation of a comprehensive regional strategy. 34 • It has taken a long time and hard-pressed discussions to shape them in present form. • The proposed SACTTF should have its original touch. It may follow APEC-CTTF or other regional bodies. But for greater security concern and development, AU will be the better model, as both the regions were decolonized and countries were created there in a complex manner. • Materialization of so far agreed actions like Regional Convention, Additional Protocol, STOMD, Liaison Officers, South Asia Forum, etc in a purposeful manner will further the process of forming the TF. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF SACTTF Basing on the previous study, further details on concept, organizing principles, objectives and other aspects of the SACTTF can be articulated.

Concept • Operate in accordance with Terms of Reference (TOR) prepared in consultation with the countries. • Should be able to counter present and future terrorism in all forms. • Should be able to effectively assist the country concerned to fight terrorism when needed. • Should have multidisciplinary capacity encompassing NGOs, humanitarian and human rights workers, police and other experts. • Should be sufficiently flexible in organizational setup and also in functioning to meet a wide variety of contingencies. • Instead of adhering to a particular definition of terrorism, a list of terrorist activities may be drawn up.

34. Michael Rifer, “SADC and Terrorism- Where is the Regional Strategy”, African Security Review, 14(1), 2005, p. 108.

37 Combating Terrorism : Regional Task Force in South Asia

• Function within the framework of SAARC. Myanmar should be taken on board. • Ultimately it must have a military force. But initially, it will start with intelligence sharing. • Should have cooperation with other regional and international bodies working on terrorism. • Formed in following three phases: ■ Phase-1: Short Term/ Immediate Form. Intelligence sharing and preparatory phase. ■ Phase -2: Mid Term. Formation of national TF putting regional and sub-regional planning staff for HQs. ■ Phase -3: Long Term. Formation of a RTF with security personnel. This may initially be formed on sub-regional basis. A suggested organogram is given at Annex A. • Since all the countries have already taken various steps at national, regional and international levels, so those actions should be harmonized at national and regional level after agreeing upon the model. • Security Council formed by all the heads of the states should be the highest body to decide the requirement of deployment of the task force in a particular situation. • Panel of wise personnel should try and advise to curb the rise of terrorism and suggest for preventive measures. Concerns • Task force operations likely to impinge on the sovereignty of member countries; • Insurgents may strike at civil and military targets of a member country launching or help launching any military campaign in another country as a matter of retaliation; • Cross border operation conducted by neighbouring/ other country forces may not be acceptable to common citizen of all countries or a particular country. • Countries or organizations from outside the region may come with their own programmes and motivation, which might be counterproductive to regional cause. Challenges Following are the major challenges: • Removal of mistrust and confidence building among the countries. • Funding and financial arrangement. • Having common understanding on terrorism.

38 • Bilateral arrangement/ partnership between specific countries and regional organization such as EU, ASEAN and others. • Keeping the region out of external influence, but at the same time receive their support and cooperation. Organizing Principles • To be formed on the basis of sovereign equality and non-interference in the internal affairs of member states. • All measures against terrorism must respect the rule of law and be in compliance with international law, in particular, international humanitarian law, human rights law and refugee law. • Universal adherences to UN CT conventions and protocols. Objectives Following objectives should be achieved: • To combat all forms of existing and potential terrorist acts in the region with a plan of action; • To be contributive to the process of greater cooperation and support among the regional countries; • To assist, upon request, governments of the member countries in implementing the counter terrorism strategies/ conventions/agreements that they have signed; • To have a common databank with the list of terrorists and criminals; • To establish several programmes to combat the burgeoning threats of radicalization; homegrown as well as transnational terrorism; • To analyze and predict future nature and incidents of terrorism and prepare strategy to counter the same. SAARC or Alternative ? At this stage, examination to find out the appropriate mother organization for the RTF is essential. Now-a-days, there is a greater appreciation of regional grouping than ever before. While bilateral relationship has a pride place in international relations, yet it is in the regional and multilateral sphere where in the future of diplomacy lies. As the world turns to become more global, countries in every part of the world are finding it convenient to come into regional groupings to promote their economy especially trade interests. Thus, it is time to take a very serious look at the SAARC by the leaders and realize that in spite of having all its faults, it is the best vehicle to forge ahead as a regional entity. 35 As such,

35. Mahfuz Anam, op. cit.

39 Combating Terrorism : Regional Task Force in South Asia

the CTTF should be structured within the framework of SAARC. Myanmar has observer status. It should be taken on board. Bangladesh or other regional countries can not remain idle for indefinite time for the SAARC to turn into an effective body to combat terrorism. Thus, taking lessons from ASF, as a starter, such task force may be established on sub- regional basis. There are many examples of successful sub-regional cooperation like GCC in Arab League and EUBENELUX in EU. 36 In this case, Bangladesh, Myanmar, India, Bhutan and Nepal may form a sub-regional task force. Such nature of perception was accepted in December 1996 in Delhi (India) by the foreign ministers of SAARC. In that meeting, one sub-region with Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and Seven Sisters of India and another sub-region with Sri Lanka, Maldives, Pakistan and South-West and Western Indian States were agreed upon. 37 But, it should be considered only as a starter and all efforts must be exhausted to form a greater RTF.

Why SACTTF is Needed ? Successful establishment of SACTTF means not only effectively combating terrorism but also creation of a conducive environment in the regain for greater cooperation and development at large. Such an environment will certainly reduce tension and arms race among the countries, creating more opportunities of socio-economic development and more integration of the region and ultimately shaping up of a new security concept for the region. Successful establishment of SACTTF also means making the SAARC more effective and efficient. Thus, SACTTF will be the beginning of a much needed structure of South Asian peace and security system like EU, AU, ASEAN and other regions of the world and thereby help substantial multilateral cooperation like one currency, no visa, etc in the region, a long cherished dream of the people. At this stage, it will be relevant to briefly introduce South Asian security issue. Many experts opine varying views about the effectiveness of a kind of security system in the traditionally trouble prone region, but agree that a sense of collective security could be achieved for greater service to the on-going efforts of collective cooperation.38 Nevertheless, a broad parameter for South Asian security system can be considered

36. Khandokar Hasnat Karim, “South Asia Cooperation and Sub-regional Jot”, The Daily Inquiaib, April 16, 1997. 37. Prof Abdul Mannan Chaudhury, “Proposed Sub-regional Committee: For, Against and Neutral”, The Daily Janakantho, February 27, 1997. 38. Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury, “South Asian Security – A Complex but not Unpractical Concept”, The Daily Star, October 31, 2009.

40 for overall improvement of the political climate in the area. A regional conference in Pakistan in 2007, threw enough light on this complex but critically important subject. In September 2009, in another conference participated mainly by the leading parliamentarians and also others including editors and senior journalists, experts and academicians urged for establishment of a SAARC Security Forum in line of ARF.

Is SACTTF Impossible? Establishing SACTTF should be a priority agenda and should be considered with much seriousness by all concerned stakeholders. The subject may appear as somewhat premature to many for understandable reasons. This may even sound impractical for a variety of factors as the matter is all about fighting terrorism with task force or broadly on security arrangement in South Asia on a collective basis. But it is not anything impossible in South Asia, though it will be very complex and may take time for seeing the light of the day. Regional cooperation and peaceful coexistence is undeniable in the new century. The west have learnt this lessons after forty years of costly arms’ race and the Cold War, not to mention the thirty year war, the hundred year war, the Napoleonic Wars and the two World Wars. Even a fact of the modern history is that more number of Jews was butchered by Europeans in Europe than by all the suicide bombers and all the Arab-Israel War put together39 . But still the European could come under EU for their better future. The Africans could also come together sorting out or managing their differences. Many other regional countries have also joined their hands for collective approach. Why the South Asian countries should not be able to do the same? Very realization that SACTTF will be effective in combating terrorism and will bring all round benefit to the people may make the same true one day. The SAARC was also initially considered impractical and a utopian idea, but at one stage it saw the light belying all skeptics. Though the progress of SAARC is still sluggish and has fallen short of expectation, but its existence is a reality. The SACTTF concept will certainly receive more consideration at one stage because of the complex regional and global terrorist scenario and emerging complexities. The current time is particularly appropriate for such thinking since the present positive trend of development and reconciliation among the belligerents and closer ties among the countries of other regions should encourage towards a better security system in general and counter terrorism strategy in particular in the region. There is another positive development in the region that all the SAARC countries have evolved their multi-party democracies and underlined the challenges they still

39. Nadeem Rahman, “Reawakening”, The Daily Star, March 1, 2010.

41 Combating Terrorism : Regional Task Force in South Asia

face in ensuring effective, efficient, transparent and accountable government for their people. They can take pro-people stand in the policy and action. In the last SAARC summit in Thimpu, this idea has strongly being echoed by the South Asian leaders. All the SAARC countries are signatories of various agreements and conventions on security and terrorism issues adopted under the UN and other bodies. Now, they should form their own collective approach. During disaster, South Asian countries help one another in many ways including sending armed forces personnel, assets and services. Armed forces of these countries are working in various UN missions together under one command. Some of the countries including Bangladesh keep forces standby for UN employment. All these examples of military cooperation may be taken as the basis to build SACTTF. The political parties and all other social bodies of the countries should reach a broad consensus on the national and regional interest. Most of the South Asian countries like Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka talk on terrorism in ARF, then why they should not talk the same under SAARC? Changing of political culture and mindset in the countries and in the region is a vital pre- requisite for SACTTF. So it is difficult but not impossible to form SACTTF.

Organization and Function of SACTTF Vision of the proposed task force should be as “South Asian countries to form a CTTF capable of combating all forms of terrorism in the region effectively and thereby ensure socio-political and economic emancipation of the people”. Its mission should be “to create an effective multilateral framework in South Asia to tract down terrorists and bring them under legal action”. The indicative list of functions may be the following: • Carry out intelligence warfare against the terrorist groups and intelligence sharing among the agencies. • Investigate types of terrorist groups. • Capacity building of law enforcing and intelligence agencies. • Coordination and meetings of agencies. • Multi faceted motivational campaign within all the countries. • Social and educational reforms to mitigate terrorism. • Involvement of people for intelligence gathering and detection of terrorist cells. • Curbing illegal smuggling of arms, light weapons, explosives and drug trafficking.

42 • Ensure container security at ports and strict vigilance of unloading of goods. • Effective use of anti-money laundering law to identify/ stop the source of funds. • Effective border management and immigration control by means of modern technological equipment. • Outline role of media in combating terrorism. • Ensure safe passage of people and goods by all means especially by sea and air. • Conduct anti-terrorist operations. Force Generation and Organogram To enable the SAARC to respond to threat and breaches of peace and stability in any part of the region, multination South Asian forces will remain as a standby system ready to intercept in any situation of major terrorist attack including armed conflict or genocide. This force may be organized in line with the Brahimi Report of 2000 or the ASF. The military component of the proposed TF should consist of initially two battle and later two brigade groups, one for each sub- region with a headquarters at the top in the SAARC Secretariat. For greater acceptance and for other obvious reasons, personnel should come from all the member countries as decided and agreed upon by the committee formed for this purpose or by the individual states. However, to be effective, the headquarters should be functioning fulltime under an appropriate commander with sufficient planning and supporting staff including other elements and resources, while unit and sub-unit may remain in their respective countries. A suggested organogram of final phases is shown at Annex A.

Other Issues For the establishment of the PLANELM by the SAARC, the sub-regions and countries should have realization of all the remaining priorities of organizational set up and functioning/ execution of the key steps of SACTTF. Issues like doctrine and training, deployment capacity building, legal matters, financial management, logistic mechanism and command, control, communication and information system (c31s), etc should also be worked out. The SAARC in collaboration with the sub-regions/countries should carry out periodic review of the implementation Road Map.

RECOMMENDATIONS After carrying out a detailed study of the subject, are recommend following: • The concept of South Asian Counter Terrorism Task Force manned by security personnel is a visionary one and all should sincerely pursue this idea.

43 Combating Terrorism : Regional Task Force in South Asia

• SACTTF is to be built gradually in phases over a period of time. Initially it could start with intelligence sharing, subsequently military component could be added at battle group level and finally into brigade groups. • Personnel should be drawn from all the member countries as decided and agreed upon by the committee concerned or by each of them. • An effective and fulltime headquarters should be functioning under an appropriate commander with sufficient planning and supporting staff including other elements and resources, while units and sub-units may remain in their respective countries. Existing STOMD may be converted as HQs. • Battle or brigade group headquarters and SAARC Secretariat/Headquarters should be organized in line with Regional and Force Headquarters of an UNKPO. • For faster implementation and operational convenience both bilateral and sub-regional arrangements may be allowed, but all such efforts should be directed for a greater regional orientation e.g. under SAARC. • It should start with less sensitive issues. It should immediately establish a physical centre along with a research body of sensible people of South Asia to create awareness and favorable public opinion and carryout research to suggest ways and means for setting up the Task Force. "South Asia Forum" as decided in 2010 will be able to do this job. • Actions like STOMD, SDOMD, South Asia Forum, various conventions, liaison Offices, preparation of Vision Statement, etc so far agreed upon under the SAARC forum should be implemented in letter and spirit. • Myanmar should be taken as an active partner on counter terrorism and security strategy. BIBLIOGRAPHY Books 1. K Ali, “History of Indian Sub-continent” Dhaka, Ali Publication, 1990. 2. Lt Gen E. V. Vas, Pvsm, The Search for Security: Controlling Conflict & Terrorism, Dehra Dun, India, Natraj Publishers, 1989. 3. Vernon Hewitt, The New International Politics of South Asia, New York, Manchester University Press, 1997. 4. Harun Ur Rashid, An Introduction to Peace and Conflict Studies. Dhaka, The University Press Ltd, 2005. 5. Akbar Ali Khan, Discovery of Bangladesh; Explorations into Dynamics of a Hidden Nation, Dhaka, The University Press Ltd, 1996.

44 6. Shaheen Afroze, Regional Cooperation in South Asia: New Dimension and Perspectives, Dhaka, Academic Press and Publishes Ltd, 1999. 7. Devendra Kaushik, Perspective on Security in Indian Ocean, New Delhi 110064, Allied Publishes Private Ltd. 8. Emajuddin Ahmed & Abul Kalam, Bangladesh South Asia and the World, Dhaka, Academic Publishers, 1992. Documents 9. The SAARC Charter. 10. Officers’ Study Period Paper of 305 Infantry Brigade, “Insurgency in Neighbouring Countries and Its Effect on Bangladesh”, Rangamati, 2000. 11. Summary of Proceeding on International Conference on “Human Security Approach to Counter Extremism in South Asia: Relevance of Japanese Culture”, BIISS, November 24-25, 2009. 12. Bangladesh Gazette, July 30, 2009 (www.bgpress.gov.bd). 13. “Joint Communiqué” issued on the occasion of Bangladesh PM’s visit to India, New Delhi, January 12, 2010. 14. K. Alan Kronstadt and Bruce Vaughn, “CRS Report for Congress on Terrorism in South Asia”, updated in August 31, 2005 (Order Code RL 32259), available at CRS Web, accessed on May 12, 2010. 15. Vanessa kent and Mark Malan, “The African Standby Force: Progress and Prospects”, African Security Review 12 (3), 2003 available at http:// www.shirbring.org/kentmalam-essay.pdf, accessed on Augugst 05, 2010. 16. Jakie Cilliers and Mark Malan, “Progress with the African Standby Force”, ISS Occasional Paper 98 ISS, Pretoria, May 2005 available at http://www. isn.ethz.ch/isn/current_ affairs/ policy - brief accessed on August 05, 2010. 17. Paper on European Defence Agency (EDA), available at Europe Web Portal, accessed on July 30, 2010. 18. “Policy Framework for the Establishment of the African Standby Force and the Military Staff Committee” Adopted by the African Chiefs of Defence Staff, Addis Ababa, May 15-16, 2003, 19. The Thimpu Declaration of SAARC, April 2010. 20. “ASEAN Security Community Plan of Action”, available at ASEANWEB accessed on July 10, 2010.

45 Combating Terrorism : Regional Task Force in South Asia

Periodical/ Journal/ Articles/ Paper/ Reports 21. M Harun-Ar-Rahsid, “International Coalition Building in Conflict Management and Conflict Resolution. How Viable is the Option?” Paper presented in the Seminar at Defence Service Command and Staff College, Mirpur, Dhaka on December 05-06, 1995. 22. National Professor M Shamsul Haq, “World in Transition: Challenges for South Asia”, Mirpur Papers, Issue No-2, December 1994. 23. Prof. P. Sahadevan, “Mapping Extremism in South Asia”, Paper Presented in Round Table Discussion at BIISS, May 25, 2009. 24. Shaheen Afroze, “A Comparative Study of the Solution and their Practicality”, Paper Presented in Round Table Discussion at BIISS, May 25, 2009. 25. Imtiaz Ahmed, “Countering Radicalization in South Asia: Bangladesh Perspective”, Paper Presented in Round Table Discussion at BIISS, May 25, 2009. 26. Major General Sheikh Md Monirul Islam “SAARC- Institutionalized Approach to Counter Terrorism”, Paper Presented in Turkish-Asian Congress, May 28, 2009. 27. Lieutenant General (Retd) M Harun-Ar-Rahid, BP, “External Military Threat to Bangladesh”, Presentation paper to NDC, 2001. 28. Stephen Burgess, “The African Standby Forces, Sub-Regional Command and African Militaries”, available at http://www.an.af.mil/awc/africom/ documents/burgesssubregional command.pdf. accessed on August 05, 2010. 29. “European Union”, available at Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia, accessed on April 10, 2010. 30. Abdur Rob Khan, “Counter Terrorism Strategy of Bangladesh : National and International Discussion”, Draft Paper prepared for Discussion Only, NSI, 2009. 31. Barrister Harun Ur Rashid, “South Asia Task Force Against Terrorism”, Dhaka Courier, February 27, 2009. 32. “Mansabdar”, Banglapedia , Volume-6, Asiatic Society of Bangladesh, Dhaka. 33. Group Research Paper on “Defence Policy for Bangladesh: A Policy Paper”, NDC 2003. 34. Tom Sauer, “A Second Nuclear Revolution; Form Nadear Primacy to Post- Existential Deterrence”, The Journal of Strategic Studies Vol-32, No.-5 (Thy for & Francis), October 2009. 35. Brigadier General Md Mahfuzur Rahman, “Thesis on Transnational Crime;

46 A Non- Traditional Security Paradigm Bangladesh case Study, prepared for NDC in India, 2009-10. 36. Farooq Sobhan, M. Shafiullah and Shahab E Khan; “Counter Terrorism in Bangladesh. A Strategy Paper” for MOFA, BEI, 2009. 37. Report Prepared by BIPSS Research Team for Ministry of Foreign Affairs on “ Indo- Bangladesh Summit: A Security Agenda for Bangladesh” in January 2009. 38. The Brahimi Report on UN System, available at http://www.globalsolutions. org/ issues/ surrany-brahimi-report, accessed on August 05, 2010. Web Sites/ Newspapers 39. http://www.apec-org/apec/apec-groups/CTTF-APEC, accessed on June 15, 2010. 40. Brigadier General (Retired) Arun Sahgal, “Combating Terrorism in South Asia: State Response to Terrorism”, The Daily Star, November 12, 2005. 41. India - Asia News Service, “India- Myanmar to Jointly Fight Northeast Rebels”, The Daily Star, March 1, 2010. 42. Staff Correspondent, “Seminar for Countering Fundamentalism”. The New Age, May 26, 2009. 43. FE Report, “Nat’l Taskforce Must Before Regional Taskforce: Experts”, The Financial Express, May 26, 2009. 44. Air Commodore (Retired) Ishfaq Ilahi Choudhury, “National Security: Bangladesh Perspective”, The Daily Star, March 6, 2010. 45. Staff Correspondent, “Unity Among South Asian Nations Vital to Fight Militancy”, The Daily Star, February 21, 2010. 46. Major General (Retd) AMSA Amin, “Meeting the Challenges of Religious Militancy”, The Daily Star, November 2, 2005. 47. Editorial “Amendment of US Document to Separate Islam and Terrorism”, The Daily Prothom Alo, April 10, 2010. 48. “New Style Terrorism can be more Dangerous”, The Daily Independent, May 04, 1999. 49. Md Shamsul Islam, “Combating Terrorism is South Asia: Problems and Prospects”, The Daily Star, November 12, 2005. 50. The Daily Prothom Alo, November 24, 2009. 51. Mahfuz Anam, “SAARC: Why Neglect it When we have no Alternative?” The Daily Star, November 12, 2005.

47 Combating Terrorism : Regional Task Force in South Asia

52. Tipu Sultan, “Terrorism of Bangladesh-Pakistan-Afghanistan-India has Same Root”, The Daily Prothom Alo, November 05, 1998.. 53. “Bangladesh Terrorism is Philip Side of Pakistan Terrorism”, The Daily Times (Pakistan) Editorial, February 27, 2010. 54. Md Asadullah Khan, “Tackling Terrorism”, The Daily Star, November 19, 2005. 55. The Daily Star, April 13, 2009. 56. Khandokar Hasnat Karim, “South Asia Cooperation vs Sub-regional Jot”, The Daily Inquiaib, April 16, 1997. 57. Prof Abdul Mannan Chaudhury, “Proposed Sub-regional Committee: For, Against and Neutral”, The Daily Janakantho, February 27, 1997. 58. Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury, “South Asia Security – A Complex but not Unpractical Concept”, The Daily Star, October 31, 2009 (p-12). 59. Nadeem Rahman, “Reawakening”, The Daily Star, March 1, 2010. 60. http: // www.aseanregionalforum.org, accessed on June 15, 2010. Author Brigadier General Quamrul was born in January 1961 and commissioned in the infantry regiment in May 1982. He is a Master in Defense Studies. He has served in all the appointments of an infantry unit including commanding the same both in the plain and also in Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT), an insurgency prone area. He has also served in all the headquarters of Bangladesh Army e.g. as General Staff Officer (GSO) Grade-3 and Brigade Major in an infantry brigade, Colonel Staff (Principal Staff Officer) of an infantry division, Director in the Army Headquarters, GSO Grade-1 (Joint Operations) in the Armed Forces Division (Prime Minister’s Office). He has served in the President Guard Regiment (PGR), NDC and also in Bangladesh Military Academy as a ‘’Distinguished Instructor’’. Before joining the NDC, he was commanding an infantry brigade. He has long and rich onground experience on low intensity conflict and peacekeeping operations (PKO). He has organized an Arms Surrender Ceremony in CHT after signing of the historic peace treaty. Under PKO he has served as staff officer in ONUMOZ, Mozambique and in MONUC, DR Congo. While serving as the Force (Chief) Training Officer in MONUC, he contributed enormously in shaping up the in-mission training activities including the Force Commander’s (FC) Training Directives - a UN publication, which were acclaimed highly by the FC and UN (DPKO). He has successfully commanded Bangladesh Military Contingent to Kuwait, a composite force of about 4000 personnel. He has attended a number of professional courses, seminars and

48 workshops both at home and abroad. He has a good number of publications to his credit including the pamphlet on anti-tank guided missile. He was involved in drafting the Bangladesh Defence Policy, Joint Operations Doctrine, Joint Air Defense Plan, Earthquake Plan, Forces’ Goals and Force Structure for the Armed Forces and the War Book for the Cabinet Division. He has visited many countries across the globe. He is married and has two issues, one son and one daughter. His hobbies include reading, playing and helping people.

49 ROLE OF NGOs – IMPACT ON NATIONAL SECURITY OF BANGLADESH

Brigadier General Md Emadul Haque, ndc, psc

INTRODUCTION Economic liberalization and the increased role of Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) as global phenomena predated the end of the Cold War and the recent attention focused on civil society and processes of democratization. But in 1989, with the opening up of Eastern and Central Europe, an NGO discourse, infused with notions of public participation, greater representation of the poor, and more equitable access to resources, gained currency. NGOs have been especially credited with changes in women’s status. Targeting women as their primary recipients, NGOs have provided credit and training and have contributed to declines in fertility, increases in income, and the rise of important institutional settings that have brought women together for collective discussion and exchange. In Bangladesh, as elsewhere, NGOs also have played a key role in the struggle for democracy by providing a venue for discussion and debate around issues of poverty, equality, literacy, access to credit, and more representative government. Bangladesh is a small, third world country with a huge population and a host of problems where poverty, gender inequality, illiteracy, corruption, etc are more pronounced. Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) can complement the government to meet these challenges. Because of the flexibility and grassroots level organizing ability, NGOs are capable of administering micro- level development programmes aimed at poverty alleviation, socio-economic and health development of the disadvantaged, their demographic restraints and women empowerment. By playing an important role in development, this sector has earned its own identity all over the world and gradually became partners of development paradigm along with public and private sectors. NGOs in Bangladesh are engaged in diverse activities where micro- credit is the most common and popular. Apart from this, other programmes include education, healthcare, family planning, environment, human rights, relief and rehabilitation etc. On the other hand, the elements of national security has multiple facets like territorial integrity, political independence, security of core values, internal security, protection of basic rights and economic and environmental security etc. However, there is a growing concern that some of the NGOs are engaged in some alleged controversial activities which are detrimental to the national security matters. These include involvement in partisan politics, illegal business, anti-social activities, misappropriation with donation, preaching

50 religion, promoting religion centric extremism, biasness in selection of target group, lacking in financial transparency and accountability and so on. These allegations pollute their contributions, which must be taken into cognizance for expected socio-economic development of the country without jeopardising the national security. Proper monitoring by the government can regulate the NGO activities to keep them out of question. It is now important to identify the threats emanating from NGO activities and find means of regulating NGOs’ effort in the socio-economic development of the country. Henceforth the problem statement of the research is to identify the controversial roles of NGOs affecting national security and how best the NGOs can be regulated to contribute to the socio- economic development of Bangladesh negating their alleged controversial roles which often might pose threat to the National Security.

Aim The aim of this study is to identify the threats to national security emanating from NGO activities and suggest the ways to address the threats.

OVERVIEW OF THE ROLE OF NGO Micro credit and Poverty Alleviation. In respect of poverty alleviation, principal instruments of NGO programmes involve micro credit, skill development and employment generation. With a view to reducing dependency on the usual moneylenders, NGOs arrange micro credit for individual or collective enterprises which is the most successful innovative effort of the NGOs in Bangladesh. Women Empowerment. NGOs in Bangladesh do not see women’s economic empowerment as its only goal, but encourages uniting the poor women in-groups as part of a larger struggle. Credit based income generating activities are the main tasks for most of the NGOs. The women have access to money through the credit group. Healthcare and Nutrition. NGOs have strengthened the existing healthcare system and developed appropriate institutional structures and mechanisms. The primary attention of all these NGOs is focused on reducing the incidence of infant, child and maternal mortality. The NGOs have also made remarkable contributions in the nation-wide immunization programme to combat the high incidence of infant and child mortality. Within a decade they have increased the ratio of Expanded Programme for Immunization from 5 percent to 85 percent (Aziz 2003).

51 Role of NGOs – Impact on National Security of Bangladesh

Curbing Population Growth. NGOs have been actively supporting the activists of family planning in private sector thus playing a vital role in curbing population growth. NGOs are working with the government in making family planning service increasingly available at the community level and in educating the clients. Until 2003 they covered over 4 million eligible couples in the country (Aziz 2003). NGOs have encouraged female workers in the field of family planning and found them efficient and cost effective for making the population control programme a success. Success in reducing population growth rate has therefore been considered as a remarkable work of NGOs. Development in the Field of water and Sanitation. Water and sanitation is the greatest health factor. NGOs contributed significantly to health outcomes by providing water and sanitation services with notable success in community-based programmes that also created behavioural change among common population (Rahman 2008). Education Sector. The NGOs perceive education as an integral and indispensable part of democracy and also consider it to be a basic human right. The NGOs have concentrated their efforts on eradicating illiteracy through functional education for both men and women with special emphasis to children. They are experimenting not only on the means and methods of making education more appealing and useful for the poor, but also on minimizing the rate of drop outs which is found to be alarmingly high. Environment Sector. The programme of NGOs has been laid primarily on deforestation, water and sanitation, and aquaculture. NGOs have exhibited notable success in aforestation on homesteads, embankments, school grounds and similar other places. In the aforestation programmes, NGOs have provided seedling and sapling of fruit and fuel wood trees to the beneficiaries for plantation. Agriculture. Bangladesh is an agrarian country and major fraction of the population depends on it. Outstanding contributions have been made by NGOs in agriculture sector. NGOs have introduced new, high-breed, anti-insect and sustainable crops especially in respect of soya beans, maize, vegetables which are remarkable. Agricultural productivity has increased as several NGOs arranged training, provided technical assistance and quality seeds to the farmers. Advocacy Issue. NGO’s advocacy activities have been intensified since the return to the democracy in the 1990s than that of 1970s and 1980s. More number of NGOs is now involved in social awareness programmes and advocacy issues (BRAC annual report 2008).

52 Fisheries, Poultry, Livestock and Sericulture. Provision of necessary expert and gears including credit support by the NGOs have motivated poor people to undertake activities such as fisheries, livestock, poultry etc which eventually has become a profitable means of income. NGOs also have significant success in the field of sericulture in North Bengal which became a good income generation source for many (Rahman 2008). Relief and Rehabilitation Sector. NGOs were born in this country basically for conducting relief and rehabilitation program and for a long time they played a significant role in distributing relief among the distressed people along with the government. A review of NGOs relief work indicates that NGOs emergency responses are immediate, large scale and effective (Rahman 2008). After Cyclone Sidr, BRAC distributed emergency relief materials to over 180,000 families (BRAC Annual Report 2008) Other Roles. According to an evaluation study carried out by the Netherlands Ministry for Foreign Affairs in 1998, the other sectors in which NGOs are operating have been identified as integrated rural development, income generating and training, legal aid, human and civil rights, and child development (Ahmad 2007: 159).

NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS OF BANGLADESH- AN OVERVIEW OF THE TRADITIONAL AND NON-TRADITIONAL THREATS

Perception of National Security Security Perception. Security of a country is a matter of perception. National security implies that a nation being free from all components of insecurity. The Security of a nation today is no longer restricted to armed forces only; it involves the entire nation as a whole. Threat to national security is a matter of concern not only to armed forces or the government but to every citizen. National security involves preservation of some core values of a nation. It encompasses all fundamental interests of the state. It deals with matters of security issues relating to the existence of the state. It includes economic emancipation, resource control, ecological equilibrium etc. After the Second World War the term “national security” had purely military aspect, but since the end of the Cold War era, the security issues have been widened to cover the whole economic, social, ecological and demographic aspect.

53 Role of NGOs – Impact on National Security of Bangladesh

Threat Perception. Security is a concept which does not give any meaning without some identification of threats. Threat is an implicit or explicit determination. The source, type and the level of threat are mostly situational and complex. Threat to the state comes in diverse forms which cannot be easily weighed off against each other and which are frequently in a state of constant evolution. These threats define its insecurity and set the national security as a policy problem. The threat to national security can be broadly categorized as traditional and non-traditional threats (Khan 2001). The National Security of Bangladesh is susceptible to both military and non military threats. The details of traditional and non-traditional threats (internal and external) will be explained in the subsequent paragraphs.

Traditional Threats. Intervention by other countries or insurgency within the country is the traditional threat. Detail discussion on traditional threat is not within the scope of this paper. Therefore, this paper will focus only on non- traditional threats (internal and external) some of which may be emanated from the alleged controversial activities of NGOs. Non-Traditional Threats. In the context of Bangladesh the non-military security threats are likely to be more vulnerable than that of the military. Non- traditional threats may be further divided into two broad categories: external and internal. Internal threats may include unstable political situation, poor economic condition, environmental hazard, ethnic crisis, religious extremism, drug addiction, population problem and unemployment problem. External threats may encompass cultural aggression, economic suppression, diplomatic domination, drug trafficking, arms smuggling, international terrorism and water sharing disputes etc (Rahman 2008, Khan 2001).

Nature and Sources of Threat to Security Security has got its intrinsic positive elements-presence of values, satisfaction of needs, feeling secure and striving unhindered for growth and development. At the contextual level, the conventional militaristic external oriented definition of security fails to capture the magnitude and variety of the problems of the countries like Bangladesh. The threat to Bangladesh’s security is essentially indirect, i.e. economic strangulation through stoppage of river waters and by encroachment of its maritime interest. Tribal rebels supported by big neighbour in the CHT along with terrorist activities by religious fundamental groups are also matter of concern for the government. Gono Judha Bahini (SORBOHARA) mostly in south western districts is also hampering the security (Hossain 2009).

54 Economic problems are the most substantive aspects of the security of small states because they are of immediate relevance to the people at large and also the state itself. Threats to economic security mainly include small resources, high dependency on foreign aid and technology spiralled with extreme debt burden. Internally, poverty, uneven rural and urban development etc largely affect the security. The economic security if ensured can provide health security, education security, food security etc. On the otherhand Bangladeh is the worst sufferer of the climate change. Environmental degradation due to green house effect, deprivation of river water by upper riparian countriy etc. posing a great threat to the security of the people. These environmental effects are the main threats to security of our county (Hossain 2009).

THREAT EVALUATION – IDENTIFY THE THREATS EMANATING FROM NGO ACTIVITIES

Activities of NGO Affecting National Security General Allegation against NGO. Since, the NGOs are deeply involved in many national development programmes, so their alleged controversial roles are likely to have negative impact on the national security of Bangladesh. The recent disputed and defaming allegation against some of the NGOs has questioned the credibility of NGOs in Bangladesh. With the increasing availability of donors’ funds, some NGOs tend to undertake programmes, which are determined by donors’ demand and expectation Controversial Activities of NGOs. Next few sub paragraphs will highlight few of the alleged controversial roles played by the NGOs in Bangladesh which are likely to pose threats to national security. This analysis will be done from both developmental view point and governmental view point. a. Interfere and Involvement in Politics. Some of the NGOs are found politically involved. They started taking part in mass movement from 1990. NGOs’ participation in the 1996 mass movement under the sponsorship of their coordinating body created a major concern, which has affected NGO credibility as a neutral force. The magnitude of involvement in politics by these NGOs is a serious concern for the country and also undesirable. They may pose threat to the political security. b. Lack of Accountability. There is a perception among different segments of the population that NGOs, especially the big ones, in Bangladesh are not accountable for their activities (Khan 2002: 423). NGOs generally have no one particular body to which they are accountable, and unlike governments

55 Role of NGOs – Impact on National Security of Bangladesh

or businesses, NGOs have no readily acknowledged “bottom line” against which performance can be measured (Ahmad 1999:75). The NGOs are accountable neither to the government nor to their clients but merely to their funding sources. This leads to the aspect of accountability and transparency of the NGOs which is so much desired and demanded globally in democratic governance (Rahman 2008). c. Lack of Financial Transparency. The government plans to shut down 2,931 NGOS in 16 districts of the country owing to what it considers their inactivity, and absence of transparency in fund-related matters (The Daily Star 2010, 04 April). It is found that most of the NGOs are not transparent in their financial matters. d. Involvement in Profit Oriented Business. As non-profit organization NGOs are not supposed to be involved in profit oriented business. But it has been observed that NGOs sometimes get involved in such business and misusing the money they get to use for the betterment of the people. Bangladesh Business Forum has already complained that the NGOs are fetching money from abroad and running their business with it, but they do not pay any interest, revenue, duty or income tax. Some of the big and small NGOs have already established number of profit making outfits (The Daily Star, 04 April, 2010). e. Misappropriation of Donation. In spite of the various socio–economic developments there is an allegation against NGOs that less than 60 percent of the current received for poverty alleviation are actually spent for that purpose. About 500 NGOs out of the total 1500, received foreign fund in the name of poverty alleviation and other socio-economic development programmes. But a major portion of these was used in their own business (Aziz 2003). f. Promoting Christianity. Many of the foreign-funded missionary NGOs are accused of preaching Christianity. Most of these NGOs are operating in remote and highly concentrated extreme poor habitations of the country (Kashem 2002, Rahman 2008). The NGOs convert poor into Christians by exploiting their vulnerabilities. g. Promoting Religious Extremism. Few NGOs, overtly or covertly started patronizing or conducting terrorism (Hossain 2009). Religious NGOs and extremist organizations like Shahadat al-Hikma, Hizbut Tawhid, Bangladesh Islamic Manch, and Hifajate Khatme Nabuwat Andolon were also blamed to be involved in violent activities (Hossain 2009). Investigators formally charged the head of a British charity and 10 Bangladeshi agents with financing terrorism in the guise of operating a religious school in Bangladesh (Hossain

56 2009). In the district of Bhola a cache of arms was recovered from a madrasa (religious school) and orphanage run by the Green Crescent charity, accusing its voluntary organisation head Faisal Mostafa and his 10 Bangladeshi associates (Hossain 2009). Security analysts, including government policy makers think that foreign money is funding Bangladesh’s RNGOs that are fuelling militancy in the country. h. Changing Cultural and Social Values. In the name of empowering women and stopping fundamental activities in the society few NGOs instigated the rural poor helpless women to defy their husbands saying “I do not comply with others wish and I do not follow religion”. Some of the NGOs some time got involved in mobilizing the prostitutes (Rahman 2008). “Banchte Shekha” in jessore propagates and displays such slogans which may seriously affect the culture of lower-middle class and middle class society (Personal visit to the NGO). In the name of empowering women and development, few NGOs are disregarding our existing social values, which are creating an adverse effect in our total socio-cultural environment (Kashem 2002). j. Connection with Insurgency. Many NGOs in CHT maintain close political liaison with Jana Shanghati Shomiti and UPDF. And in many occasions, these are being funded by donors without the consent of the government. Alo, Trinomul Unnayon Shangstha, Kabidang, Jabrang Kallayan Shomiti etc. from Khagrachari, and Centre for Indigenous People Development, Social Advancement Society etc. of Rangamati are likely to be involved in this event (Rahman 2008). k. Unscrupulous Activities of Some NGOs. In the absence of adequate measure of transparency and accountability, some of the NGOs – particularly of the local types – often indulge in dishonest practices of cheating poor and the illiterate people in the name of taking up development activities for them. The reports of such cheating incidents are often published in the newspapers. The victims of such dishonest practices are always the poor segments of the population, often thousands in number (Chowdhury 2002). Survey on Islamic NGOs Who Promote Militant Activities. A research study on “Radical Islam and Development Aid in Bangladesh – Preliminary Research Study: Islamic Activism with case studies of Islamic Militancy” was carried out by Dr Maurits S. Berger LLM, Netherlands Institute for International Relations ‘Clingendael’ the Hague in 2007. The study was conducted in cooperation with Dr Abul Barkat, Human Development Research Centre, Dhaka. During their study they conducted survey on 231 Islamic NGOs of Bangladesh and could prove their direct or indirect involvement to promote Islamic militant activities in the country.

57 Role of NGOs – Impact on National Security of Bangladesh

Interview and Discussion Discussion with the DG NGOAB. This agency was established in 1990 to oversee the Foreign Donation Regulation (FDR) and Foreign Contributions Regulation (FCR) Ordinances. NGOAB has almost the same number of staff in 2010 as in early 1990’s – approximately 65 – yet the number of registered NGOs has tripled. NGOAB lacks capacity in the most fundamental aspects of its ability to perform its functions. Present structure and manpower of NGOAB is not adequate to perform its role effectively. The regulatory and monitoring structures of NGO at the field level are weak and not very effective. In order to perform the role of regulator, facilitator and monitor effectively NGOAB needs more manpower, accounting expertise, and IT assistance. Discussion with NGO Executives. Over the past three decades NGOs have contributed positively to the socio-economic development of Bangladesh. But due to certain drawbacks in the regulatory framework, multiplicity in registration procedure and lack of capacity of regulatory institutions few NGOs (especially in CHT and RNGO) may get involve in some controversial activities violating the existing regulations. There may be a central agency to coordinate activities of all the NGOs. The current legal framework for NGOs in Bangladesh is outdated and in need of revision. Discussion with the Chairperson and Director, ADAB. ADAB,as a unique network of NGOs, has developed over the last two decades or so and emerged as a model for the development NGOs. It brings together its members working within the broad framework of people-centered sustainable development. It has been playing active roles in strengthening inter-NGO relations, exchanging ideas and experiences, expanding fields of co-operation, developing organizational skills and enhancing functional relations and communication with government, donors and various groups of civil societies. In promoting internal governance standards of NGOs ADAB may perform the role of Apex Organization. But ADAB could not function properly since 2001 due to the political interference. If ADAB current capacity is developed and strengthened and enforce a code of conduct for the NGOs, it may bring about a positive change in NGO activities.

Correlation Between the Threat Emanating From NGOs and National Security. From the Above discussion, it is vivid that the development activities of NGOs are not always directed to achieve the noble cause. The parochial interests of the vested quarters are always a concern for the security of the country. (Rahman

58 2008). Alleged controversial activities of some of the NGOs may have impact on the non-traditional security of Bangladesh, i.e. economic, political, social, human, cultural security. Threat to Economic Security. The dependence on external donation denies the prospect of self reliance of the poor. Again this dependency has discouraged hard work and resource mobilization. Thereby the country is not being economically self-reliant. Due to the weakness in economy of the country, today the donors are interfering with economic policy-making and impose aid conditionality. Besides, NGOs involved in commercial activities are not paying tax and many NGO high officials avoid income tax. (Rahman 2008). Threat to Political Security. Studies have shown that the external donors became active in shaping the political power structure and allure the state administration to participate in the corruptive practices. Thereby, the NGOs are breaking down government institutions (Rahman 2008). It is found from the study that the secular and western NGOs keep intimate relationship with NGOs taking stances against the so called fundamentalist party. And the Islamic and middle east based NGOs maintaining liaison with pro Islamic parties of the country (Rahman 2008). However the NGOs with different ideologies are successful in arraying the people of the country into two distinct political entities. This would obviously vitiate the partisan politics and keep the political arena always unstable. Threat to Human Security. NGOs often utilize the poor people of the country as a means of getting donations. They do not want them to be self-reliant and solvent rather want to keep them poor for their future use. NGOs are using the foreign donation elsewhere than that of the place it was intended to. The target group may not get its share of the donation and remains as vulnerable group. Threat to Socio-Cultural Security. High level of dependence on foreign aid and the limitations of contractual relationship make it very difficult for the NGOs to expand into real value based action (Rahman 2008). In playing the role of parallel government, often NGOs act as masters to the rural people rather than a service providing benevolent partners. Actually, through these the social dynamics is affected. The social cohesion and fabric starts getting wear out. The increasing craze of rural women of being empowered, in many cases is breaking the age old family relationship. They are defying their husbands and are being divorced. This category of village women is sexually exploited. This is the biggest threat to nation’s socio culture at present (Rahman 2008).

59 Role of NGOs – Impact on National Security of Bangladesh

EXISTING REGULATORY FRAME WORK AND WAYS TO ADDRESS THE THREATS TO SECURITY POSED BY NGO

Existing Legal and Regulatory Framework of NGO. In Bangladesh, the regulatory framework for the NGOs has two parts: firstly laws under which the NGOs are incorporated and given a legal identity; and secondly, laws regulating the relationship of the NGOs with Government of Bangladesh. Besides, there are few other organizations which are responsible for monitoring and supervising the NGO activities. In the subsequent paragraphs existing legal and regulatory aspects of NGO will be analysed in order to identify the weaknesses and suggest ways forward to address the threats emanating from the NGOs. Legal Platform. A number of rules and regulations exist in Bangladesh that are intended to control and regulate NGO activities. These have provided the legal and regulatory framework which allows NGOs to secure legal identity and seek assistance from the government and also regulate their relationship with the government (Khanam 2010). Registration Policy and Accountability. There are probably more NGOs in Bangladesh than in any other country of comparable size. Registration is not mandatory unless the NGO wishes to engage in transactions with the government. Most NGOs are registered as voluntary agencies with the Department of Social Welfare, but significant numbers are also registered with the Registrar of Societies, with the courts as trusts, or with the Ministries of Religious Affairs, Youth and Sports, Women and Children Affairs, Cooperatives, and Health and Family Welfare etc. In addition to any of the above, registration with the NGOAB is also necessary in order to be eligible to receive foreign funds (Aziz 2003). Regulatory Institutions. Bangladesh Government is increasingly aware of its limitation in trying to bring about sustained development especially in the field of poverty alleviation and social delivery services, and has recognized the complementary role of NGOs in development intervention in these areas. This recognition has prompted the government to take several measures for controlling, regulating, and promoting relation between the government organizations and NGOs (Ahmed 2003). Besides NGOAB, DSW, DWCA, and Joint Stock Company these measures include the establishment of Government NGO Consultative Council (GNCC), The Association of Development Agencies in Bangladesh (ADAB), NGO Federation of Bangladesh (FNB) and The Palli Karma-Sahayak Foundation (PKSF) (Ahmed 2003, Rahman 2008).

60 Lacking in Existing Regulation and Monitoring. Over the years a very large number of unscrupulous individuals have undermined the NGO concept through setting up their own NGOs, which eventually turned out to have been fake ones. Quite clearly, there exist a multiplicity of government organizations where registering NGOs is concerned. That in turn leads to an overlapping of functions as well as general confusion, the result being that the government as a whole remains unaware of the actual situation on the NGO front (The Daily Star 04 April 2010).

Ways to Address the Threats to National Security. Bangladesh has its own religious beliefs, social values, culture, social norms and way of life. They live within a sovereign political entity. In any development work these characteristics are to be taken into consideration. Some times, NGOs take programs and float ideas which are not conforming to the beliefs and values of Bangladeshi society. In order to negate the impact of alleged controversial roles of NGOs’, few suggestions/options are appended in the subsequent paragraphs. Strengthening Legal Platform. Laws that regulate the NGO Sector are backdated and NGOs are exploiting many of the loopholes of these laws. A new set of Rules or Acts should be enacted by the government addressing diverse types of NGOs and their activities. The laws should bar the NGOs from taking part in politics either directly or indirectly. Commercial activities must not go beyond the limit bounded by the government and must be taxed with existing rules. Setting Up of NGO Commission. An autonomous NGO commission should be set for monitoring of the entire NGO sector. This is a medium term initiative which should be taken by the government. Under this commission, registration, monitoring, controlling and other interrelated works will be done (Rahman 2008). Strengthening NGOAB. NGOAB started its operation in 1990 with a meagre number of staff to register, monitor, implementing project proposals of the NGOs. The number of NGOs has increased to a significant degree since then but the bureau still works with the same manpower (DG, NGOAB). Early steps should be taken for infrastructural improvement, logistic benefit, skill development and capacity building of the NGOAB staff backed up by sufficient resources and incentives (DG, NGOAB). Accountability to Stakeholders, Government and Donors. The NGOs are to be made accountable to stakeholders, government and donor. The development

61 Role of NGOs – Impact on National Security of Bangladesh

partner, along with providing fund to a project, should monitor and evaluate the activities of the concerned NGO. They may stop their fund immediately if any irregularities are found (Rahman 2008). Financial Transparency. NGOAB, donors and the NGO itself should bridge the difference of salaries between higher and lower level especially field-workers. The information on the salary and other benefits of the employees must be made open for all. The yearly budget of every program must be disclosed. In this regard stakeholders, local citizen, journalists, researchers and government officials may be informed. Improving Government – NGO Collaboration. Effective collaboration between GO and NGO can bring the best result in socio-economic development of the country. Collaboration ensures Poor’s participation in the development process and ensures public services to the poor. It also ensures utilization of knowledge and ability of both the counterparts. Optimum utilization of scarce resources can be ensured by it. Revitalizing Government-NGO Consultative Council (GNCC). GNCC will provide a better forum for strengthening relations between government and NGOs and this council should be revitalized to create more opportunities for effective GO-NGO collaboration. This will obviously maximize the NGOs contribution to the socio-economic development of the country. Access to Information. All information of an NGO should be made accessible to the public, especially its stakeholders. Information dissemination should be institutionalized rather than being dependent on one individual. Efforts should be made to develop own NGO website which should be updated regularly. Opening Monitoring Cells in every Division. Under the responsibility of NGOAB monitoring cells should be opened in every Division to monitor the activities of NGOs in that particular area. In the district level the Deputy Commissioner may be empowered for such monitoring under his jurisdiction. Provisioning of Proper Security Vetting of the Donors. Many NGOs are backed financially by foreign funds. The donors may have got a specific goal to achieve through these NGOs. During registration at NGOAB all factors related to the donors’ programme, their intentions and related issues should be taken into consideration. Keeping in view the national interest and national security, a proper vetting procedure has to be carried out.

62 RECOMMENDATIONS Following recommendations are made to maximize the role of NGOs in the socio-economic development of the country negating the impact of their alleged controversial roles to the national security of Bangladesh: a. An autonomous NGO Commission should be set up for monitoring the entire NGO sector. Under this commission, registration, monitoring and other interrelated works will be done. b. Early steps should be taken for organizational change, and infrastructural improvement of the NGOAB. c. The effort to reform the current legal and regulatory framework for NGOs in Bangladesh should be undertaken by a Law Reform Task Force. d. A system of social audits may be introduced under the proposed NGO commission or the umbrella bodies of NGOs. e. GNCC may provide a better forum for strengthening relations between government and NGOs. Therefore, this council should be revitalized to create more opportunities for effective GO-NGO collaboration. f. At every level NGOs activities should be supervised by the appropriate authority. Under the responsibility of NGOAB or NGO commission, monitoring cells should be opened in every division to monitor the activities of NGOs. g. Both ADAB and FNB may be recognised as apex bodies of NGO sector. They may be allowed to function without the political interference. CONCLUSION NGOs are playing an increasingly important role for the socio-economic development of Bangladesh. The NGO community in Bangladesh consists of almost all categories of NGOs available in today’s world. NGOs in Bangladesh are engaged in diverse activities. Micro credit is the most common and increasingly popular type of operations. NGOs arrange collateral free credit for individual or collective enterprises to reduce the dependency on the usual moneylenders. They enhanced the opportunity of employment and income generation through various projects such as poultry, fishery, livestock, sericulture, agriculture, etc. National security of Bangladesh may be conceptualized as the combination of traditional and non-traditional security. Non-traditional threat is most expected to the national security of Bangladesh. It may originate from the vulnerabilities like acute poverty, political and social instability, demographic pressure, illiteracy, disrespect to law and order and degradation of environment etc. As the NGOs are

63 Role of NGOs – Impact on National Security of Bangladesh

deeply involved in socio-economic development programmes, so their alleged controversial roles are likely to have negative impact on the national security of Bangladesh. NGOs in Bangladesh are doing excellent job in socio-economic development of the country. Though there are some allegations of wrong-doing by the NGOs which defames their contributions but effective monitoring can check the NGOs of committing such wrong-doing. NGOs are considered as an efficient actor to achieve the goals of development. To address the threats posed by the NGOs a set of actions are necessary. An autonomous NGO commission may be set up for monitoring the entire NGO sector. A new set of rules should be enacted by the government addressing the diverse types of NGOs and their activities.

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ADAB - Association of Development Agencies in Bangladesh ADP - Annual Development Programme ALO - Assistance for the Livelihood of the Origins ASA - Association for Social Advancement BIISS - Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies BLAST - Bangladesh Legal Aid and Services Trust BOD - Board of Directors BRAC - Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee CDL - Community Development Library CEO - Chief Executive Officer CHT - Chittagong Hill Tracts CIPD - Center for Indigenous People Development DAM - Dhaka Ahsania Mission DG - Director General DGFI - Directorate General- Forces Intelligence DSCSC - Defence Services Command and Staff College DSW - Department of Social Welfare DWCA - Department of Women & Children Affairs FCR - Foreign Contributions Regulation FDR - Foreign Donation Regulation FEMA - Fair Election Monitoring Alliance FNB - Federation of the NGOs in Bangladesh GO - Government Organization GOB - Government of Bangladesh

64 GO-NGO - Government & Non Governmental Organization GNCC - Government NGO Consultative Council GSS - Gana Sahajjya Sangstha HDRC - Human Development Research Center IMDO - Indigenous Multiplex Development Organization IT - Information Technology JSS - Jana Sanghati Samiti MDS - Masters in Defence Studies NDC - National Defence College NFPE - Non Formal Primary Education NGO - Non Governmental Organization NGOAB - Non Governmental Organization Affairs Bureau NSI - National Security Intelligence PKSF - Palli Karma Shahayak Foundation PM - Prime Minister RNGO - Religious Non Government Organization SB - Shanti Bahini TIB - Transparency International Bangladesh UCEP - Underprivileged Children’s Education Programme UNDP - United Nations Development Programme BIBLIOGRAPHY Books 1. Ahmad, Mohiuddin, “Bottom Up-NGO Sector in Bangladesh”, Community Development Library (CDL), Dhaka, 1999. 2. Ahmad Mohiuddin, “The Other Option – NGO’s and People’s Praxis”, Community Development Library (CDL), Dhaka, 2007. 3. Amin Ruhul, “Development Strategies and Socio-Demographic Impact of Non-Governmental Organizations”, The University Press Limited, Dhaka, 1997. 4. Bebbington Anthony J, Hickey Samuel and Mitlen Diana C, “Can NGOs Make a Difference ?The Challenge of Development Alternatives ”, Zed Books ltd, London, 2008. 5. Brinkerhoff Jennifer M, Smith Stephen C and Teegen Hildy, “NGOs and the Millennium Development Goals, Citizen Action to Reduce Poverty”, Palgrave Macmillan, New York, 2007. 6. Farrington John and Bebbington Anthony, “Reluctant partners? Non- Governmental Organizations, The State and sustainable Agricultural Development’’, Routledge, New York, 1993.

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7. Hafiz, M Abdul Khan Abdur Rob, Ed, “Security of Small States”, The university press limited, Dhaka, 1987. 8. Heyzer, Noeleen, Riker James V. and Quizon Antonio B, “Government – NGO Relations in Asia prospect and Challenges for people – Centred Development”, Macmillan press Ltd, Great Britain, 1995. 9. Kabir Mohammad Humayon, “National Security of Bangladesh in the Twenty First Century”, Academic press and publishers limited, Dhaka, 2000. 10. Karim, Mohammad Aminul, “Contemporary Security Issues in the Asia – Pacific and Bangladesh”, Academic press and publishers Ltd, Dhaka, 2006. 11. Lewis David, “The management of Non-Governmental Development Organizations”, Routledge, London, 2001. 12. Mandel Pobert, “The Changing Face of National Security”, Greenwood Publishing Group, USA, 1994. 13. Maniruzzaman, Prof. Talukder, “The Security of Small States in the Third World”, Academic publishers, Dhaka, 1989. 14. Weiss Thomas G. and Gordenker Leon, “NGOs, the UN, & Global Governance”, LynneRienner publishers, Inc, Colorado, 1996. 15. Yunus Muhammad, “Grameen Bank at a Glance”, printed by packages Corporation Ltd, Chittagong, 2008. Journals 16. Ahmed Kamal Uddin and Ehsan Latif, “NGOs in International Development: Policy Options and Strategies”, BIISS Journal, Vol. 19, No. 2, 1998. 17. Haque M. Samsul, “The Changing Balance of power Between the Government and NGOs in Bangladesh”, International Political Science Review (2002), Vol. 23, No. 4, Pp. 411-435 18. Hossen Md Abul, “NGO in Socio – Economic Development: Bangladesh perspective (in Bangla)”, Public Administration Journal, No. 26, March 2003. 19. Kalam Asif Aftab and Abul Kalam, “Role of Environmental NGOs in Sustainable Development in Bangladesh”, BIISS Journal, Vol. 24, No. 1, January 2003. 20. Khan Abdur Rab, “Interfacing Traditional and Non-Traditional Security in South Asia”, BIISS Journal Vol. 22, No. 4, October 2001.

66 21. Khan Mohammad Mohabbat, “The State of NGO Accountability: Two Case Studies from Bangladesh”, BIISS Journal, Vol. 23, No. 4 October 2002. 22. Mallaby Sebastian, “NGOs: Fighting Poverty, Harting the Poor”, Article Alert Service, Issue No. 266, November 2004. 23. Rahman Atiur and Abdur Razzaque, “On Reaching the Hardcore Poor: Some Evidence on Social Exclusion in NGO programmes”, The Bangladesh Development Studies, Vol. XXVI, No. 1, March 2000. 24. Siddiqui Tasneem, “Growth and Sustainability of the NGO sector in Bangladesh”, BIISS Journal Vol. 19, No. 3, 1998. Reports/Seminars/Lectures/Periodicals 25. ADB report on Bangladesh NGOs, 1999. 26. Ahmed Dr Salehuddin, “Role of Non-Government Organizations (NGOs) in Bangladesh”, Lecture note, NDC, 2003 27. Assistance for the livelihood of the Origins (ALO). Annual Report 2009, Khagrachari. 28. Association of Development Agencies in Bangladesh (ADAB), Annual Report 2001, Dhaka. 29. Association for social Advancement (ASA), Annual Report 2001, Dhaka. 30. Bangladesh Gezette, October 17, 1996, “ Terms of Reference for the GNCC”. 31. BRAC Annual Report 2008, BRAC Centre , Dhaka. 32. BRAC Annual Report 2009, BRAC Centre, Dhaka. 33. BRAC Research Annual Report, 2007, BRAC Research & Evaluation Division, Dhaka. 34. Irish Leon E. and Karla W. Simon, International Consultants, International Centre for Civil Society Law, Final Report on “Legal and Regulatory Environment for NGOs in Bangladesh”, Final Report 17 April 2005. 35. Khanam Quomaran Nessa, “Regulatory Aspects of NGO and its Relationship with the Government”, Lecture paper. NDC, 04 April 2010.

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36. NGO Affairs Bureau (NGOAB), “18 Years of NGO Affairs Bureau”, 2008, Dhaka. 37. Proshika: A Centre for Human Development, Activity Report 2001, Dhaka. 38. Trinamul Unnayan Sangstha, Annual Report, 2008, Khagrachari. 39. Trinamul Unnayan Sangstha, An Organization working for Community Development, Annual Report, 2009, Khagrachari. 40. Zabarang Kalyan Samity, Annual Report, 2009, Khagrachari. 41. 20 Years of ADAB, an ADAB Quarterly Grassroots Alternative Development Journal, “NGO for a Better Bangladesh”, Jul – Dec 1994, Vol - IV, issue XIII – XIV. Research Paper/Dissertation 42. Awal Capt ASMA, “NGO Activities in Bangladesh”, combined study paper, NDC 2004. 43. Aziz Major Ahsan, “Analysis the Role of Non – Government organizations in our society and options for Bangladesh”, dissertation paper submitted to Defense Services Command and Staff College(DSCSC) as part of MDS in 2003, Dhaka. 44. Berger LLM Dr. Maurits, “Radical Islam and Development Aid in Bangladesh, Preliminary Research Study: Islamic Activism with case studies of Islamic militancy”, Netherlands Institute for International Relations “ Clingendael ’ The Hague and Human Development Research Centre, Dhaka, 2007. 45. Bhuiyan Major Md Mizanur Rahm,an , “ The Socio – Political Impact of Non – Government Organizations Activities in Bangladesh and our Options”, dissertation paper submitted to Defense Services Command and Staff College (DSCSC) as part of MDS in 2004. 46. Chowdhury Major Naquib Ahmed, “Role of Non – Government Organizations in Socio – Economic Development of Bangladesh” ,dissertation paper submitted to Defense Services Command and Staff College (DSCSC) as part of MDS in 2002, Dhaka. 47. Hossain Major Mozammel, “The Role of NGOs in Developing the Socio – Economic Condition of the People and its Impact on the National Security of Bangladesh,” dissertation paper submitted to Defense Services Command and Staff College (DSCSC) as part of MDS in 2009, Dhaka.

68 48. Kashem Major Md Abul, “ Effects of Non – Governmental Organization (NGO) in our Society”, dissertation paper submitted to Defense Services Command and Staff College (DSCSC) as part of MDS in 2002, Dhaka. 49. Khan Major Md Mostagousur Rahman, “Role of Non- Governmental Organizations (NGOs) in Socio – Economic Development of Bangladesh,” dissertation paper submitted to Defense Services Command and Staff College (DSCSC) in 2003, Dhaka. 50. Mahmood Major Sayeed Anwar, “Role of Non – Government Organizations in Bangladeshs and its Impact on National Security”, dissertation paper submitted to Defense Services Command and Staff College (DSCSC) as part of MDS in 2008, Dhaka. 51. Rhaman Major Mohammad Azizur, “Non-Government Organizations and Socio Economic Development of Bangladesh – Impact on National Security” dissertation paper submitted to Defense Services Command and Staff College (DSCSC) as part of MDS in 2008, Dhaka. 52. Rahman Major Md Syeedur, “Role of Non – Government Organizations in Socio – Economic Development of Bangladesh”, dissertation paper submitted to Defense Services Command and Staff College (DSCSC) as part of MDS in 2008, Dhaka. 53. Zaman, Major, “Role of NGO in Socio – Economic Development of Bangladesh,” dissertation paper submitted to Defense Services Command and Staff College (DSCSC) as part of MDS in 2009, Dhaka. Interview/Discussion 54. Mustak Hassan Md. Iftekhar, Director General NGO Affairs Bureau, Dhaka. 55. Mahabub Hossain PhD, Executive Director, BRAC, BRAC Center Dhaka. 56. Prof Abul Barkat, PhD, Chief Advisor (Hon.), Human Development Research Centre (HDRC), Dhaka. 57. Chairman, Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BIISS), Dhaka. 58. Concerned Directors, Research, Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BIISS), Dhaka. 59. Abdul Matin, Chairperson, ADAB and Executive Director, International Voluntary Services – Bangladesh.

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Author Brigadier General Md Emadul Haque, ndc, psc was born in January 1961. He was commissioned in the East Bengal Regiment in 1982. He served in five infantry regiments and held all possible regimental appointments including Second in Command and Commanding Officer of an infantry battalion. He was also the Commanding Officer of Army Security Unit (ASU). He commanded two Infantry brigades including one in post insurgency conflict situation in Chittagong Hill Tracts. In addition to regimental staff appointments, he was Brigade Major of an infantry brigade. Brigadier General Emad was Director Operations in the Rapid Action Battalion Forces Headquarters and is also a pioneer member of this elite force. He was director, Counter Terrorism Intelligence Beauro (CTIB) in DGFI. His instructional appointments include Platoon Commander and Instructor Class-B at Bangladesh Military Academy (BMA), Instructor Class-B of Tactics Wing in the School of Infantry and Tactics (SI&T), and Directing Staff at Defence Services Command and Staff College (DSCSC). He is a “Distinguished Instructor” of BMA, SI&T and DSCSC. He holds Master Degree in Defence Studies. Brigadier General Emad worked with “United Nations Transitional Authority in Cambodia” (UNTAC) as a contingent member. He attended many courses, Training Exercises and seminars at home and abroad including International Intelligence Directors’ Course at the Defence Intelligence and Security Centre, United Kingdom, and Senior Mission Leaders’ Course in India. He is a graduate of Defence Services Command and Staff College of Bangladesh and also attended Army Command and General Staff Course in Philippine. He has visited many countries of the world. He is married and has one son and one daughter.

70 MYANMAR’S STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES IN THE 21st CENTURY: RECOMMENDATIONS FOR BANGLADESH

Air Commodore Md Anwarul Haque Sardar, ndc, fawc, psc

INTRODUCTION Resource-rich Myanmar is strategically located between three regions, i.e., South Asia, South East Asia, and East Asia, with Asian rising economic power China and India in the northern side while vibrant regional economy Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the southern side. Strategically, China needs secured energy trade routes as an alternate to the Malacca strait and gain access to the energy resources for the development of regions contiguous to Myanmar. Studies may reveal likely shift for the interest in energy link between Myanmar and India, bypassing Bangladesh, could be of strategic relevance for India looking at rising big-power in East Asia. Studies may also reveal how ASEAN would benefit from Myanmar with policies of engagement. Understandably, Myanmar would benefit more by giving access to its abundant energy resources because such access would enable it to develop economically and sustain politically. What could be of more significance to isolated Myanmar, which, being a socialist country under a self-styled military dictatorship, to be under China’s sympathetic protection! On the added note, there would be certain far-reaching implications, if Myanmar, by creating a strategic link to adventure with nuclear energy in the name of using it for peace-time applications, gets access to another isolated country North Korea. If authenticated, studies on Myanmar to achieve nuclear deterrence may reveal something of more significance and may seriously implicate Bangladesh. Nevertheless, there is strong probability to find that China and India are already economically engaged with Myanmar. The facts-finding study may reveal that in this era of economic interdependency, be it a democratic government, autocratic regime or a regime with controlled democracy, the regional powers or the big power would race to set foot in Myanmar as long as it kills Myanmar’s hunger for development and their thirst for energy and security.

Research Questions Therefore, subsequent research questions may appear pertinent. Firstly, what are the factors that would be instrumental for Myanmar to define its strategic objectives in the 21st century? Secondly, could the power to achieve a credible strategic deterrence by 2020 be the main theme of strategic objectives for Myanmar? Thirdly, how Bangladesh would respond to the implications for Myanmar’s strategic objectives in the 21st century? Myanmar’s Strategic Objectives in the 21st Century: Recommendations for Bangladesh

Scope In the scope of this paper, country’s history would be analyzed to reveal ‘periodic behavior continuities’ of the pasts and argue its relevance in this era. Visualizing that behavior, Myanmar’s concept in developing bilateral relationship interests in the past decade of 21st century with the rising powers in its neighborhood, regional association and global powers, and countries of special, would be analyzed. Facts would then be deduced to understand the prevailing compulsions and commonalities. Thus, to visualize the strategic objectives, arguments would anticipate the strategic effects in Myanmar by the next decade in this century and then short list the implications for Bangladesh limited to the responds only.

Historical Significance of GEO-Strategic Location

Geo-strategic Location Referred as ‘resources-rich country’, Myanmar’s geographical location is between two Asian rising powers in the north, the rich economic region ASEAN in the south and the Bay of Arakan with energy resources. All these states pursue a strategy of fostering regional stability and securing economic advantages, while refraining from open criticism to the country’s domestic policy stance. Therefore, Myanmar’s location enjoys the invisible status of a ‘comfort zone’, being on a tri-junction between South Asia, Southeast Asia and China, which is economically so significant, thus, no other country is strategically located as Myanmar.

. “The EC-Myanmar/Burma Strategy Paper (2007 – 2013)”, Available at http://ec. europa.eu/europeaid/ where/asia/country-cooperation/myanmar/myanmar_en.htm, p. 6. [accessed on 22 March 2010]. . Poon Kim shee, “The Political Economy of China-Myanmar Relations: Strategic and Economic Dimensions”, http://www.ritsumei.ac.jp/acd/cg/ir/college/bulletin/e-vol1/1-3shee.pdf [accessed on 22 March, 2010]. p. 33 . “China Myanmar Dilemma”, Crisis Group Asia Report No 177, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/ asia/ north-east-asia/china/177-chinas-myanmar-dilemma. aspx, [accessed on 22 March 2010]. p. 37

72 Historical Significance This land has been known as Myanmar Nation since time immemorial and, in the ancient Chinese history, the people in this land has been referred as ‘Myan’. The earlier name ‘Burma’ has been in English use, therefore, in 1989, the present self-styled military ruler, probably by all preference to the ancient Chinese name, changed it to be ‘Myanmar’. Officially, it is known as the Union of Myanmar or ‘Pyi-Htaung Su Myanma Naing Ngan’. This change has remained unacceptable to non-Bhama peoples in Myanmar for their interpretation of ‘Myanma’ as ‘The Union of Bhama Empire’. Further study on history has revealed that ever since 53 BC till 1784 AD, this land was ruled by twenty to twenty-one dynasties with predominance of three Bhama Empires and it has the same ethnic descendents of Bhama in present Myanmar. Albeit different ethnic Empires had capital in different locations, but the original borders of the country had remained intact since those times to the present day. The largest single ethnic group had been the Bhama, around 60%, who dominated the armed forces and the government at present.10 It appeared that the present self-styled military regime, State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), had been following the same ‘periodic continuities’ like in Dynasties rule by changing the capital to a new location named Naypyidaw11 in Mandalay division,12 320 km north of old capital Rangoon and closer strategic location of Pyin-Oo-Lwin for reasons.

. Brief History of the Myanmar Army, Defence Services Museum and Historical Research Institution, February, 1999. This book was collected by the author when visiting Myanmar in 2001 with Defence Services Command and Staff College at Mirpur as delegation members. . Available at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burma, [accessed on 22 March, 2010]. . Shwe Lu Maung, Burma: Nationalism and Ideology, The University Press Limited, 1989. p. 71 . Ibid. . Ibid, Pp. 13-15 . Brief History of the Myanmar Army, Op.cit, p. 2 10. The EC-Myanmar/Burma Strategy Paper(2007-2013), p. 41 11. Xiaolin Guo, “Towards Resolution: China in the Myanmar Issue”, a Silk Road paper Published by the Central Asia Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies program, Uppsala University, Sweden, 2007. Between the end of 2005 and spring of 2006, Government ministries were located to Naypyidaw in the town of Pyimana. 12. Gwillim Law, “Divisions of Myanmar,” Available at http://www.statoids.com/umm.html, updated on 20 December, 2009. [accessed on 22 March, 2010].

73 Myanmar’s Strategic Objectives in the 21st Century: Recommendations for Bangladesh

RELATION OF MYANMAR WITH TWO ASIAN RISING POWERS,

CHINA AND INDIA

MYANMAR–CHINA RELATIONS

China’s Energy Needs China’s high energy demands would make it the world’s largest net importer of crude oil by 2030, placing it slightly ahead of the United States needs.13. China is, therefore, set to become quite vulnerable for energy source and supply.14 China became a net oil importer in 1993, and later Sudan became China’s second most important source of oil in African15. Interestingly, China’s import of oil declined in 2008 from Middle East, while increased from Africa.16. But with two thirds of the worlds proven oil reserves, Middle East would still remain as one of the most important source for Chinese oil imports. For increased consumption, imports will increase substantially and China’s oil dependency may reach recordable high by 203017 despite extensive use of other alternate energy resources. Hence, the transportation-security will be a serious concern to ship18 the imported oil through a safe alternate route considering the vulnerability of the Straits of Malacca. China has equal concern of secured gas supply for its high demand of natural gas in 2020.19 These projections indicate that China could import high amount of natural gas in 2020.20 Therefore, besides being a source of energy, Myanmar’s location also stands as the only potential supply route over land, bypassing the Malacca Straits to link China with Bay of Bengal.21 Therefore, PetroChina eventually signed a gas export Memorandum of Understanding with Myanmar in early 2006 and completed the survey for a 2,389 km pipeline from Kyakphu in Myanmar to China’s Yunnan province.22 Finally, for vital energy security, the Chinese government agreed in March 2009 with the Myanmar government to construct oil and gas pipelines linking the two countries23, which

13. Edward Hunter Christie (Ed.), Joseph Francois, Waltraut Urban, Franz Wirl, “China’s Foreign Policy: Genesis, Deployment and selected effects,” FIW Research Report 2009/10 No 03, January, 2010. 14. Ibid. 15. Ibid, p. 19 16. Ibid, Pp. 30-35 17. Ibid, p. 13 18. Tuli Sinha, “China-Myanmar Energy Engagements Challenges and Opportunities for India,” Southeast Asia Research Programme (SEARP)Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi developing an alternative framework for peace and security in the region, IPCS Issue Brief no 134, December, 2009. p.1. 19. Sinha, Op.cit, p. 2 20. Ibid. 21. Ibid. 22. Ibid. 23. Ibid, p. 38

74 will pass through strategic location of Pyin-Oo-Lwin. The background of ongoing construction of gas and oil pipe lines amply indicated China’s interest in Myanmar.

Relationship and Interest This energy diplomacy has led Myanmar to diversify its foreign relations and expand its diplomatic space to align with rising powers in Asia24. In 2005, a two-day tri-nation meeting of energy ministers from Myanmar, India, and Bangladesh in Yangon failed as the two South Asian countries could not agree on the terms and conditions of the project.25 Later, Myanmar withdrew India’s status as preferential buyer on the A1 and A3 blocks of Shwe, and instead declared its intent to sell the gas to PetroChina.26 So at the end of the day, it is everything for who serves the interest of Myanmar, and in that, all road leads to China not to India.27 China has earned a better position to exert its influence over the military junta by investing, when most of the other foreign investors and business organizations left Myanmar under sanction;28 and by protecting Myanmar from international wider sanctions including the UN Security Council resolution.29 This made China a highly valuable partner and Myanmar’s leaders were openly grateful for China’s continued political support.30 This was one compulsion of Myanmar’s strategic objective in fulfilling the energy needs of China with access to Bay of Bengal and port facilities in Rakhine state. Hence, any regime in Myanmar would maintain good relations with China. Politically, economically, strategically, Myanmar is important for China to achieve its strategic presence in the Indian Ocean and to fulfill its long desire of two-ocean objective.31 Thus, Myanmar is part of China’s grand strategic design to achieve its goal of becoming a great power in the 21st century.32 Therefore, the arguments here highlights the abundance of energy and geo-strategic location as the ‘strategic resource’, and advantageous use of energy and location for self development underlines the ‘strategic concept’ in defining the strategic objectives of Myanmar.

24. Ibid. 25. Ibid. 26. Ibid. 27. Ibid. 28. Wilson, Op.cit, p. 87 29. Ibid. 30. Ibid. 31. Shee, Op.cit, p. 43 32. Ibid, p. 50

75 Myanmar’s Strategic Objectives in the 21st Century: Recommendations for Bangladesh

MYANMAR-INDIA RELATIONS

Emerging Relationship On the other notes of relationships in trade and economic dimensions, very thoughtfully, India launched a ‘look east policy’ in 1991 for increased economic and strategic influence in the region. This became even more important when Myanmar entered ASEAN in 1997. Therefore, in pursuance as for engagement under ‘Look East Policy’ of India, Myanmar joined the BIST-EC in December 1997 for it to be the present BIMST-EC.33 Looking at India’s diplomatic thrust into Southeast Asia, China launched the Kunming Initiative as BCIM in August 1999.34 Later India launched MGC in July 2000 including Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos and India.35 All these initiatives were welcomed by Myanmar regime as these paved way for engagement after being isolated for decades. This was a clear shift in Indian attitude to gain strategic foothold in Myanmar. But when India appeared at the door of Myanmar, Myanmar had already engaged with China promoting more economic and military activities, based on old relationship of ‘open door strategy’ by Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in 1978.36 Virtually, the military junta pulled India into Myanmar so that India could increase her strategic depth with policies of constructive engagement instead of being with the historical past. So Myanmar, with due understanding of the importance of its location, gave strategic access to China, knowing ‘China factor’ would work greatly for India to set strategic foothold in Myanmar. This has virtually neutralized any effects of international sanctions whatsoever. This interesting strategic scenario let India again revise its foreign policy towards Myanmar.37 So India tried to focus on macro level projects like construction of railways networks, port facilities, hydropower plants and energy development. Since India’s plans for a strategic foothold in Myanmar were one sided, it failed to achieve concrete success in this field of macro level investment. The failure was also because Myanmar’s oil and gas sector has attracted the largest foreign investment over 21 companies38 of US$ 14.4 billion.39 Though India could involve 3 energy exploration companies40 in areas with highest gas reserve in South East Asia in Myanmar, it had to undergo very harsh negotiations

33. Egreteau Renaud, “India and Burma/Myanmar Relations, from Idealism to Realism”, Center de Sciences Humaines, New Delhi, India, 11 September, 2003, p. 9 34. Ibid. 35. Ibid. 36. Ibid, p. 944 37. Ibid, p. 946, The source referred, ‘in 2002, an Indian official from Ministry of External Affairs claimed that India was sending only “non-lethal” military equipment to Burma”. 38. Yhome, Op.cit, p. 8 39. Ibid. 40. Ibid.

76 to be in the consortium led by the South Korean firm Daewoo for off-shore gas exploration. India’s attempts to construct gas pipelines for distribution of gas extracted from A-1 and A-3 back to India failed at the end, as against China’s concrete and advantageous offers. Thus, much to the surprise and frustration of India, Myanmar agreed to sell 6.5 tcf of gas from block A-1 to PetroChina over 30 years41 and decided to offer the right of refining and supplies to China as a favor for a successful effort to block the UN Security Council Resolution on Myanmar in March 2007.42 Nevertheless, as the ONGC-Videsh has acquired separate gas assets off the Arakan coast in September 200743 so there are strong hopes for India to share the energy in Myanmar. Therefore, Bangladesh also could assess the benefit of India getting access to any Arakan energy block and study jointly to share by setting up a pipe-line for much needed energy to support the size of industry in 2021.44 However, all now depends on diplomacy for energy to benefit the Northeastern region in India or Southern region of China or Bangladesh or all 3 together against the benefit of Myanmar. One has to wait and see for the outcome of recent five-day visit of Myanmar’s head of state to India on 25 July 2010, which might be a beginning of new era.45

Network for Development Against all the odds, Myanmar yet did not frustrate India fully and signed US$ 110 million “Kaladan Multi-Model Transit Transport Project” with India on 02 April 2008.46 With this, Indian northeastern states will have the ‘strategic corridor’ from Sittwe bypassing Bangladesh.47 This also shows clearly that Myanmar wanted both rising powers in Asia to be happy and remain along side in times of critical needs in future. Thus, we may be looking ahead for a trilateral development network between Myanmar, China and India. The analysis again revealed, the energy abundance and geo-strategic location are the ‘strategic resource’, and an advantageous use of them for economic development, underlines the ‘strategic concept’ in defining the strategic objectives of Myanmar.

41. Sinha, Op.cit, P. 2 42. Vibhanshu Shekhar, “A Federal Democratic Myanmar-India’s Strategic Imperative”, An article published in IPCS ISSUE BRIEF, No 67, New Delhi, May 2008, p. 3 43. Ibid. 44. The stats are available at http://www.biiss.org/elahi.pdf. [accessed on 30 May 2010] 45. Available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5 Cpapers 0%5Cpaper3954.html [accessed on 16 August 2010] 46. Yhome, Op.cit, p. 17 47. Ibid.

77 Myanmar’s Strategic Objectives in the 21st Century: Recommendations for Bangladesh

RELATION OF MYANMAR WITH ASEAN STATES

MYANMAR-ASEAN RELATIONS

Historical Perspective ASEAN48 is one institution for effective influence over the regime in Myanmar. Both the rising powers are pursuing economic relations with Myanmar either bilaterally or trilaterally or through institutions like BIMST-EC, MGC and BCIM, which were organized in period between 1997 and 2000, exactly in time frame when Myanmar joined ASEAN in 1997.49 At this instance, Myanmar’s entry into ASEAN is important to analyze. Myanmar was yet to be in ASEAN when the terms ‘constructive engagement’ was coined by the Thai foreign minister Arsa Sarsin in 1991.50 This initiative was actually a realization of vision in ‘changing battlefields to market place’ by the Thai Prime Minister Chatichai Choonavan in 1988. By this initiative, Thailand gained rights in Myanmar for trades in 1989. Thus, the growing closeness between Myanmar and Thailand caught the eye of western diplomats. Later in May, 1991, at a meeting in Luxembourg, the European Commission (EC) asked Thailand through ASEAN to assess the situation in Myanmar because SPDC rejected the election won by the National League for Democracy (NLD) in 1990. Following the concept ‘constructive engagement’, in 1994, the Thai foreign minister Prasong Soonsiri invited the Myanmar Foreign Minister U Ohn Gyaw to attend the meeting in Bangkok as an observer with conditions including release of Aung San Suu Kyi. In 1995, the military junta released Aung San Suu Kyi from six years of house arrest and agreed to join ASEAN. Later in July, 1996, in the fifth ASEAN summit in Bangkok, Myanmar was given the observer status before becoming member in the following year along with Laos. In hindsight, it was the Thailand’s initiative and persuasion compelled ASEAN to accept Myanmar as a member. But historically, Thailand and Myanmar never enjoyed friendly relationship for the deep rooted scar of historic wars between Bhama Kingdom and Mon Kingdom when “King Anawratha”, the Bhama king, waged war against the Mon King and conquered Thuwanna Bhumi in AD 1050. It happened about 1000 years ago

48. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, was established on 8 August, 1967 in Bangkok, Thailand, with the signing of the ASEAN Declaration (Bangkok Declaration) by the Founding Fathers of ASEAN, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Available at http://www. aseansec.org/64.htm, [accessed on 30 May, 2010] 49. Aung Zaw, “ASEAN-Burma relations, Collection of articles in Challenges to Democratization in Burma by IDEA”, p. 42. Available at http://www.idea.int/asia_pacific/burma/upload/exec_summary.pdf, [accessed on 30 May, 2010] 50. Ibid.

78 but it is still burning in the hearts of Bhamas and Mons.51-52 Notwithstanding, a new landscape emerged, when many ASEAN states reevaluated their interest in Myanmar, with the concept of ‘Constructive Engagement’.53 Concurrently, when China expressed its assertiveness to claim areas contiguous in South China Sea, the ARF (ASEAN Regional forum) was formed as a collective security arrangement with China, EU, Japan, Russia and USA to build confidence and increase engagements.54 But a serious economic concern appeared as other markets emerged to challenge ASEAN. Therefore, ASEAN liberalized trade and investment regulation with promulgation of Singapore Declaration in 1992, and to make the market even bigger, ASEAN continued its expansion policy to include all of Southeast Asia. Myanmar stood as a magnet for investment in more 45 million consumers and abundance of natural resources, and became a part of ASEAN on the 30th anniversary of ASEAN’s creation. Inclusion of Myanmar, along with Laos and Cambodia, the ASEAN-10 offered a population of about 500 million, an area of 4.5 million sq km, total GNP of US$ 685 billion, a total trade of US$ 720 billion with supply of cheap natural resources.55 Though many scholars referred inclusion of Myanmar in ASEAN as a troubled marriage56 but fundamentally, it was to prevent communism spreading in the region. Therefore, despite intransigent behavior with siege mentality, Myanmar succeeded to remain engaged with ASEAN without any domestic political concession.

Present State of Relations The declaration of 16th ASEAN summit in Ha Noi 08 and 09 April 2010, ‘Towards ASEAN Community: From Vision to Action’, stated the importance of national reconciliation in Myanmar and the holding of the general election in a free, fair, and inclusive manner for contributing to Myanmar’s stability and development.57 Further review of the declaration58 showed how Myanmar would immensely benefit in this century being in ASEAN. The declaration defined strategies for quick Economic Recovery and Development, Connectivity in transportation and Information Communication Technology (ICT), energy and cross border facilitation for smooth movement of people, goods, and services, to

51. Maung, Op.cit, p. 10 52. Ibid. 53. Ibid. 54. Ibid. 55. Ibid. 56. Ibid. 57. The European Council welcomed this “declaration of ASEAN in 16th Summit on 09 April 2010.” 3009th FOREIGN AFFAIRS Council meeting, Luxembourg, 26 April, 2010, Council conclusions on Burma/ Myanmar. 58. International and Regional Issues, highlights of Chairman’s Statement in 16th ASEAN Summit. Available at http://www.aseansec.org/24509.htm, [accessed on 30 May, 2010].

79 Myanmar’s Strategic Objectives in the 21st Century: Recommendations for Bangladesh

intensity efforts in response to Climate Change, with priority for Education and Human Resources Development, stressed the importance for ‘Centrality’ by 2015. The declaration also defined strategies for ASEAN Political-Security Community (APSC), Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC), the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone Treaty (SEANWFZ), the Declaration of Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), the ARF, the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM), ASEAN Ministerial Meeting on Transnational Crime (AMMTC) and the ASEAN Convention on Counter-Terrorism to ensure regional peace and security. The declaration also highlighted that the Intra- ASEAN trade almost tripled to US$ 458.1 billion in 2008 as compared to 2000 when all ten Member States joined the CEPT-AFTA. The declaration expressed satisfactions with the achievements in ASEAN-China and the ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement, the two big emerging economies of Asia. The declaration highlighted the extensive discussion regarding International and Regional Issues, stressing the need for Myanmar to continue to work with ASEAN and United Nations in this process. To summarize, Myanmar by its good conduct would surely benefit as like other member states in ASEAN. So one would find that since the Union of Myanmar joined ASEAN in July 1997, the country completed thirteen years as a member state to become a part of the strategy of “Towards the ASEAN Community: from Vision to Action”. This achievement defined success in both ends of relationship between Myanmar and ASEAN with good sense of tolerance. Thus, this is a ‘periodic behavior’ that may be considered as ‘continuities’ since history and using this behavior opportunistically for righteous outlook exposure, which underlines the ‘strategic concept’ in defining the ‘strategic objectives’ of Myanmar. Therefore, for the other determinants in defining Myanmar’s strategic objectives, it is now essential to study relations with countries located beyond immediate neighbors and regions.

RELATION OF MYANMAR WITH THE US AND EUROPE

MYANMAR-UNITED STATES RELATIONS

Myanmar’s Apprehensions Myanmar’s apprehension about US, since the beginning of this century, was that US might get into internal affairs with rights to exercise the joint declaration by the ASEAN-United States for Cooperation to Combat International Terrorism 01 August 2002.59 Following the Rose revolution in Georgia in November, 200360

59. Available at http://www.aseansec.org/22684.htm, [accessed on 29, May 2010] 60. Available at http://www.globalsecurity.org/intell/ops/rose.htm, [accessed on 31, May 2010]

80 and the Orange revolution in Ukraine in November, 200461, the Saffron revolution in August, 200762 was thought to be planned to uproot the military regime in Myanmar. Myanmar’s apprehension further grew to a height seeing rapidity of ASEAN-US dialogue relations in December 2009.63 All these apprehensions are outcome of one being fearful, suffering from siege mentality, being intransigent and impervious in attitude. Albeit hypothetical, at any instances, militarization of the area surrounding Myanmar, including the maritime boundary to control sea trade routes in Bay of Bengal and South China Sea, is quite a possibility by US under the agreements and dialogue relations with ASEAN. Thus shifting the capital from Yangon division to Mandalay division in geographical depth could be a visible manifestation of those apprehensions in the present Myanmar regime.

Sanction versus Engagement There were no visible evidences of US sanctions imposed in the ‘Burmese freedom and Democracy Act of 2003’ neither let military regime produce any political concession for democracy.64 The On-going US policies rather seemed to help the Myanmar regime to cooperate substantially with the international community on issues such as narcotics trafficking, religious freedom, money laundering and people trafficking.65 Additionally, when a different situation developed following the change in Prime Minister in the military leadership of SPDC in October 2004, US placed Myanmar on the UN Security Council in September 2006.66 And when in January 2007, the US proposal67 was put to vote as agenda under Chapter-VII of the UN Charter in United Nations Security Council (UNSC) that failed to achieve no-veto68 from China.69 Understandably, Washington has been partially successful in seeking international support for

61. Available at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange_revolution, [accessed on 31 May 2010]. 62. Available at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffron_revolution, [accessed on 31 May 2010]. 63. Overview of ASEAN-US Dialogue Relations as on 14 December 2009. Available at http://www.aseansec. org/23222. htm, [accessed on 30 May 2010]. 64. Wilson, Op.cit, Pp. 90-91 65. Ibid, p. 91 66. Ibid. 67. Available at http://www.unscburma.org/Updates/2007/UNSC Update 12 January, 2007. html, [accessed on 30 May 2010]. 68. On 12 January 2007, China and Russia used their veto power in the UN Security Council to stop a resolution calling for Burma’s military junta to release all political prisoners including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, cease attacks on ethnic groups, and speed transition to democracy. The vote was 9 to 3 with South Africa joining China and Russia in opposition, and three other countries, Congo Republic, Indonesia and Qatar, abstaining. Belgium, France, Ghana, Italy, Panama, Peru, Slovakia, the UK and the US voted in favor. China and Russia argued that they shared concerns about conditions in Burma but considered them internal matters that did not constitute threats to international peace and security and therefore the issue should not be dealt with by the Security Council. 69. Xiaolin Guo, Op.cit, p. 77

81 Myanmar’s Strategic Objectives in the 21st Century: Recommendations for Bangladesh

its campaign.70 But in recent time, there is a development that needs focus and thoughtful study, where apparently US expressed its concern over Myanmar’s likely desire to achieve capability for strategic deterrence. During the period, which covers almost the first decade of this century, one would find very low level of media activities on the issue of ‘Nuclear Burma’ till 2005, while the same figure jumped to an alarming level of 67 in 2009 and within the first four month of 2010, it is already to a level of 21. That does anyway highlights relations between the United States and the Union of Myanmar because 34 reports out of 105 in total are from the US in general including 13 as ‘Daily Press Briefing’ from the Department of States and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in different times of year 2009 on the issue of nuclear in Myanmar. This development has led the present regime in the US for engagement in dialogues with Myanmar silently. This is a fundamental shift in US-Myanmar relations as understood from the statement of the Secretary of State Clinton in Jakarta in early 2009 that Washington was looking at new strategies to ‘more effectively help the Burmese people.”71

MYANMAR-EUROPE RELATIONS

Through the EU and ASEAN Study of ASEAN-EU dialogues relations on 12 December 2009 showed a prime goal to see a legitimate, democratically elected civilian government in Myanmar. The same also expressed its critical views about the absence of tangible progress with regard to the respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms.72 Contacts with the government in the framework of ASEAN-US meetings are regularly used to raise the Union’s concerns.73 Bilateral relations between Myanmar and EU are dealt by framework of ‘EU Common Position’.74- 75 Presently, the EU provides assistance on need basis, based on the strategy paper on Myanmar for the period between 2007 and 2013, concentrating on two focal sectors including education and health with estimated budget of €65

70. Ibid. 71. Kurt M Chambell, Purposes and Principles of US Engagement in Burma, Statement of the Assistant Secretary, Bureau of east Asian and Pacific Affairs on 10 May, 2010 after 2nd trip in Naypyidaw. Available at: http://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2010/05/141669.htm, [accessed on 30 May, 2010] 72. Available at http://ec.europa.eu/external_relations/myanmar/index_en.htm, [accessed on 28 May 2010]. 73. Available at http://ec.europa.eu/external_relations/myanmar/index_en.htm, [accessed on 29 May 2010]. 74. EU ‘Common Position’ – Provisions of the Treaties and EP Rules of Procedures concerning common positions, which is referred by the European Council to the European Parliament. The Common Position in the context of the common foreign and security policy (CFSP) is designed to make cooperation more systematic and improve its coordination. The member states are required to comply with and uphold such positions which have been adopted unanimously at the council. 75. The “EC-Burma/Myanmar Strategy Paper(2007-2013),” available at http://www.deltha.ec.europa.eu/ Myanmar/MM2008/Burma Myanmar SP2007-2013EN.pdf, [accessed on 30 May, 2010]

82 million.76 However, in response to bloody crack down on ‘saffron revolution’ in August 2007, the EU applied more stringent sanctions targeted against 1207 firms controlled by the regime.77 However, on 27 April 2010, as the foreign ministers agreed, EU again renewed its existing economic sanctions for a year against the regime.78 Otherwise, the European Commission (EC) interventions have been limited to scope and channeled through the UN system or through international NGO and amount of assistance being limited; it was difficult to prove their long term sustainability on the overall development in Myanmar. Different independent donor countries and the EU members include the UK, Germany, France, Sweden, Denmark. From Asia, China provides substantial support to Myanmar, Japan had been Myanmar’s largest aid donor until 2003 and Thailand’s development assistance to Myanmar is mostly as grants for infrastructure projects, e.g. for the construction of roads and bridges. The UN has an active presence in Myanmar with a range of UN agencies and UNDP.79 Like ASEAN-EU, contacts with the government in the framework of ASEM80 also attempted to engage Myanmar.81 In that, Europe virtually failed to keep Myanmar away from ASEM for divisions among European countries but nor did it influence the leadership in Myanmar.82 Therefore, one might conclude by saying, having achieved the primary objectives, though limited, regime has earned recognition through participation in ASEM regularly.

Sanctions versus Engagement Taking both approaches of relationship between Europe and Myanmar, it appeared that the EU policies did not attract attention of the Myanmar leadership as it had no visible impact and showed no cracking.83 When the United States and the EU gradually introduced stricter sanctions, China, India, Thailand, North Korea and Pakistan have become Myanmar’s most important trading partners. Therefore, forcing western business to withdraw from the country only produced

76. Ibid. 77. Ingrid Melander, “EU implements sanctions on Myanmar junta”, Reuters News, 19 November 2007, Brussels 78. EU renews sanctions against Burmese regime on 27 April 2010 , Mizzima, 16 May, 2010, Available at http://www.mizzima.com/news/world/3867-eu-renews-sanctions-against-burmese-regime-.html, [accessed on 30 May, 2010] 79. The EC-Myanmar/Burma Strategy Paper (2007-2013), Op.cit, p. 13 80. The Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) is an informal process of dialogue and co-operation bringing together the 27 European Union Member States and the European Commission with 16 Asian countries and the ASEAN Secretariat. The ASEM dialogue addresses political, economic and cultural issues, with the objective of strengthening the relationship between our two regions, in a spirit of mutual respect and equal partnership. Available at http://www.aseminfoboard.org/page.phtml? code=About. [accessed on 30 May 2010] 81. Available at http://ec.europa.eu/external_relations/myanmar/index_en.htm, [accessed on 29 May, 2010] 82. Ibid. 83. Ibid.

83 Myanmar’s Strategic Objectives in the 21st Century: Recommendations for Bangladesh

a vacuum, quickly filled by Chinese companies regularly.84 The political and economic influence of China into Myanmar was directly proportional to the level of sanction by the EU and the US. It stands very clear now that higher the sanctions, bigger the space for China in Myanmar. Therefore, cueing from the realization in Obama administration for engagement, Europe may review its strategy for engagement with Myanmar soon.85 The sanction-target Myanmar was found using these forums as a network for engagement with the European Union and the United states using member’s rights through ASEAN. Additionally, taking due advantage of being in isolation under these sanctions, the regime probably was leaning to learn the survival strategy from North Korea. Thus, being a nation with strategic resources including autarky, nationalistic and self imposed isolation policies and by applying them to reduce the effects of sanctions, has frustrated the big powers, which also defines the essential background of strategic objectives.

RELATION OF MYANMAR WITH NORTH KOREA

COMMONALITIES

Historical Background The severe relation of 198386 was reestablished again between Myanmar and North Korea in April, 200787 with very rapid improvement in bilateral military cooperation based on certain perceived commonalities. To understand the backdrop of those ‘commonalities’, study revealed after the end of Korean War in 1953, North Korea enjoyed impressive economic growth88, which later continued to decline till 1980s. In same decade, the severe energy shortage in North Korea caused further decline of its economy that led the country to sign an agreement with Soviet Union to import nuclear reactors and oil.89 With the collapse of Soviet Union in 1985, the security environment in Korean Peninsula also changed. Thus, Pyongyang started construction of two nuclear reactors, and probably succeeded in acquiring primitive nuclear weapon capability by early 1990s.90 This isolated country was subjected to stringent sanctions by US and

84. Ibid. 85. Ibid. p. 3 86. Bertil Lintner, “Myanmar and North Korea Share a tunnel vision”, a media news on 19 July, 2006, available at http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/HG19Ae01.html, [accessed on 01 April 2010] 87. Norman Robespierre, “Nuclear bond for North Korea and Myanmar”, an article in media on 04 October 2008. Available at http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/JJ04Ae01.html, [accessed on 01 April 2010] 88. Lu Yin, “Challenges of Non-Proliferation in Northeast Asia and Possible Solutions”, Asia Paper Published by the institution for security and development policy, Sweden, February 2010, p.10. 89. Ibid, p. 11 90. Ibid.

84 Japan.91 Therefore, for the survival, North Korea opted to continue with nuclear proliferation to enhance its international status along side of non-nuclear South Korea92 but continued to suffer from paranoid-type threat perception.93

Minimal Deterrence Therefore, looking at how US influenced the Gulf war and the Iraq war, North Korea became more resolved to achieve minimal nuclear deterrence power94. Once the former Indian Army Chief of Staff, General K Sundarji pertinently commented on the importance of the nuclear deterrence for weak countries, ‘[Coalition member]’ could go in because the United States had nuclear weapons and Iraq didn’t. The Gulf War emphasized once again that nuclear weapons are the ultimate coin of power.’95 From the pattern of actions by North Korea, any quasi scholar would assume that possession of nuclear weapons would still be regarded as indispensable part of the security strategies in any desperate situation.96 Additionally, North Korea has also become a covert nuclear reactor supplier to Syria and Iran as revealed.97 It was estimated in 2009 that North Korea earned about $1.5 billion annually by selling weapons to other countries. North Korea has three customers so far including Iran, Syria, and possibly Myanmar.98 North Korea reportedly has about 3,000 scientists and research personnel devoted to the Yongbyon program, and many of them have studied nuclear technology in the Soviet Union and China.99 Desperate for more financial benefits, North Korea continued its activities to provide even training and weapons to certain countries.100 To that extent, North Korea also sold long range missile in exchange to develop Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) infrastructure.101 Such activities clearly exposed that North Korea has achieved Minimal Nuclear Deterrence that definitely has also given enough boosts to bargain in negotiating with world powers in general and US in specific as was seen in recent Six Party Nuclear Negotiation. This model to achieve Minimal Nuclear Deterrence could be the strategic concept of a country having same ‘commonalities’.

91. Ibid, p. 14 92. Ibid. 93. Ibid, p. 12 94. Available at http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/burma-a-nuclear-wanabee-suspicious-links-to-north- korea-high-tech-procureme/, [accessed on 30 May, 2010] 95. Yin, Op.cit, p. 13 96. Ibid, p. 6 97. Lewis M Stern et al, “Burma in Strategic Perspective: Renewing Discussion of Options”, a publication in Strategic Forum of Institute for National Strategic Studies in National Defense University, No 249, October 2009, p. 4 98. Larry A. Niksch, “North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons development and Diplomacy”, A publication in Congressional Research Service, 05 January, 2010, p. 5 99. Ibid, p. 20 100. Ibid. 101. Ibid, p. 21

85 Myanmar’s Strategic Objectives in the 21st Century: Recommendations for Bangladesh

MYANMAR’S DREAM TO ACHIEVE STRATEGIC DETERRENCE

Emerging Survival Bi or Trilateral Therefore, Myanmar’s sudden tilt towards North Korea may be viewed as part of a decision to acquire likely nuclear deterrence capability in the face of mounting threats against the military junta102 and may also be viewed as an attempt to accrue international respect and prestige, or a strategy for securing a bargaining power in future103 as enjoyed by North Korea.104 Thus a question posed, should North Korea be allowed as the world’s supplier of nuclear weapons technology?105 Since early 2000s, many dissidents and defectors from Myanmar have talked of a ‘nuclear battalion’ and an atomic ‘Ayelar Project’.106 The revelations of the North Korean reactor in Syria, along with developments in Iran and Burma, appear to point toward a different type of proliferation ring- -- one run by national governments, perhaps also assisted by other clandestine networks”.107 Therefore, likely involvement cannot be ruled out with rumors that Myanmar’s military junta received assistance in constructing nuclear facilities from North Korea and other country that pose a serious concern to the Indian strategists as nuclear Myanmar might introduce a new strategic paradigm to the region.108-109-110 In early August 2009, international media reported world wide the story of two Myanmar defectors, unknown to each other, one a Russian- trained officer in a Myanmar ‘secret nuclear battalion,’ and the other a former executive, who believed to have handled nuclear contracts with Russia and North Korea, who shed light on a secret complex, allegedly located in tunnels at Naung Laing, a mountain in northern Myanmar adjacent to a Russian-built civilian reactor, which was the center of Myanmar’s attempt to acquire a nuclear weapons capability. This location is in close proximity of Pyin-Oo-Lwin, and it is the same location through which the gas-pipe line between Sittwe and Yunnan will pass by. This is also in close proximity of new capital Naypyidaw. The

102. Lewis, Op.cit, p. 7 103. Ibid. 104. “China’s Myanmar Dilemma”, Crisis Group Asia Report No 177, 14 September 2009, . 29-30. 105. Gregory L. Schulte, “Uncovering Syria’s Covert Reactor”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Polity Outlook, January 2010, p. 5 106. David Albright, Paul Brannan et el, “Burma: A Nuclear Wannabe; Susicious Links to North Korea;High- Tech Procurements and Enigmatic Facilities,” ISIS Report published on 28 January, 2010, Available at http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/burma-a-nuclear-wanabee-suspicious-links-to-north-korea-high- tech-procureme/, [accessed on 30 May 2010] 107. Available at http://www.journalgazette.net/article/20090930/BLOGS01/909309959, [accessed on 02 April, 2010] 108. Available at http://www.the-diplomat.com/001f1281_r.aspx?artid=371, [accessed on 29 May, 2010] 109. Available at http://www.the-diplomat.com/001f1281_r.aspx?artid=371, [accessed on 30 May, 2010] 110. Available at http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/burma-a-nuclear-wanabee-suspicious-links-to-north- korea-high-tech-procureme/, [accessed on 30 May, 2010]

86 defectors claimed that, with North Korean assistance, Yangon was building a hidden nuclear reactor and plutonium extraction facilities.111 Growing Concern of the US On the same issue, a month earlier U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said in July, 2009, “We know there are also growing concerns about military cooperation between North Korea and Burma which we take very seriously,”112 On the higher note of concern, the US President himself expressed in NPR-2010, “…Today’s other pressing threat is nuclear proliferation. Additional countries – especially those at odds with the United States, its allies and partners, and the broader international community – may acquire nuclear weapons. In pursuit of their nuclear ambitions, North Korea and Iran have violated nonproliferation obligations…Their illicit supply of arms and sensitive material and technologies has heightened global proliferation risks and regional tensions.”113 A list of nuclear exports by North Korea and the updated list as on February, 2010 include Myanmar.114 As a highlight of increased bilateral relationship between these two countries, there has been increasing number of North Korean ships that reportedly visited Yangon, increasing speculation about the relationship, including nuclear collaboration in recent years.115 Albeit, there has never been the serious prospect of any invasion, but it would be a mistake to underestimate the impact of such threat perceptions that influenced the regime’s security policies. Again, it is also unlikely that Myanmar would be abandoned by the powerful energy hungry neighbours and region despite any concerns they may have about the regime’s nuclear ambitions.116 Thus, of all Southeast Asian countries, Myanmar arguably has the strongest strategic rationale to develop nuclear weapons using foreign exchange reserves of USD 00 mil117-118. Additionally, with added advantage of being in isolation, one neither can underestimate the capability nor can overestimate untested intelligence sources, while no one would repeat the mistakes which preceded the 2003 Iraq War. Therefore, under this dilemma,

111. Lewis, Op.cit, p. 7 112. Andrew Selth, “Burma and North Korea: Smoke or Fire?”, Policy Analysis Paper in ASPI(Australia Strategic Policy Institute), Dated: 24 August 2009, p. 2 113. Nuclear Posture Review Report (NPR-2010), the report provides a roadmap for implementing President Obama’s agenda for reducing nuclear risks, published on 06 April, 2010 by Department of Defence, USA, Pp.3-4. Available at http://merln.ndu.edu/index.cfm?secID=151& pageID=3&type=section, [accessed on 29 May 2010] 114. Available at http://merln.ndu.edu/index.cfm?secID=108 & pageID=3 & type=section# nuclear & at http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/NK/Nuclear/47_1273.html, [accessed on 29 May 2010] 115. “China’s Myanmar Dilemma,” Crisis Group Asia Report No 177, 14 September 2009, Pp. 29-30. 116. Ibid, p.8. 117. Available at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign_exchange_reserves, dated: 29 May 2010, [accessed on 29 May 2010] 118. Ibid, p.6.

87 Myanmar’s Strategic Objectives in the 21st Century: Recommendations for Bangladesh

without investigating it thoroughly first, no government would accept the claims that Myanmar has a secret nuclear weapons program.119 This is the strategic effect that Myanmar has resonated in the region and globe through media in different times of year 2009. The North Korea model of acquiring nuclear reactors and weapons could be in the strategic concept for Myanmar. This might lead to the emergence of another bi or trilateral network between Myanmar, North Korea and a third country for survival, modeled on compulsion to achieve ‘minimal deterrence with minimal transparency for maximum security guarantees.’120

MYANMAR’S STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR BANGLADESH

MYANMAR’S STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES Therefore, the Union of Myanmar should have three strategic objectives (ends). Firstly, Myanmar would keep the friendly ties with its two neighbors, China and India, which would lead to a trilateral network. Thus, this may be referred as, ‘Development Trilateral Network’ with the northern neighbors. Secondly, essentially there is a need for Myanmar to be in ASEAN for the very stability in South-east Asia. Consequently, the US and Europe used this regional forum to engage Myanmar for its likely usefulness in near future. Thus, this may be referred as state-region-state ‘Engagement Trilateral Network’. Thirdly, as Myanmar has endorsed the ‘commonalities’ with another pariah state, North Korea, thus, the military junta is likely to stress on the importance of nuclear deterrence being a weaker state with likely hidden link or support of a third country. This may be referred as, ‘Survival Bi or Trilateral Network’. These three networks would surely offer a sense of direction to Myanmar in defining the ‘strategic objectives’ (ends) in the 21st century, which might be attained through pragmatic adjustments to the changes in ‘strategic environment’ of the 21st century. The networks for Development and Survival would have direct implications on Bangladesh with indirect of the other.

IMPLICATIONS FOR BANGLADESH Bangladesh has vision to be the middle income-group country (MIC) by 2021. Accordingly, the size of the industry by 2021 in reference to energy-need would

119. Andrew, Op.cit, p. 2 120. Available at http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/burma-a-nuclear-wanabee-suspicious-links-to-north- korea-high-tech-procureme/[accessed on 29 May, 2010]

88 increase. Majority of the industry is gas-dependent in Bangladesh, when the likely proven reserve of gas is learnt to be less. There will definitely be shortage of needed gas for the size of the industry that would contribute to the national income in 2021. Despite high proven reserve of coal in storage, Bangladesh imports coal every year in absence of much needed coal energy. Present roadways would certainly increase its capacity to sustain the economic growth. Therefore, in this era of globalized economy, Bangladesh has to re-think and re-assess the strategic environment in both internal and external dimensions. Bangladesh may not be able to compete in the race for energy with India and China towards Myanmar but keeping the national interest at forefront, it should look for rightful share in the energy network between Myanmar, China and India. Myanmar’s desire to use nuclear for peaceful purpose with abundance of energy available for export to China and India should logically appear unrealistic; therefore, likely use as deterrence would be the main objective. Hence, undisputedly it would implicate the national security of Bangladesh and there will be a security dilemma in the region. Country like Bangladesh then would fail to bargain with Myanmar from its comparative low position of strength, thus, may pose a gesture of naivety for the rights in maritime boundary. Additionally, the region cannot expect any more from the regime if there is any sort of nuclear accident.121 On the other note, one may argue that Bangladesh rather could stand more logically for use of nuclear as the source of energy for development and the need may even arise early if Bangladesh fails to share energy network between Myanmar, India and China. However, by the end of next decade, external strategic environment could be more volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous with likely capability of nuclear deterrence in Myanmar as a last resort. However, all depends in balancing the emergence of the ‘Engagement Network’ and ‘Survival Network’ by all stakeholders. The higher the engagement, lower the threat to the survival of Myanmar.

RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION

RECOMMENDATIONS Three recommendations could be inferred logically as a respond to the implications for Myanmar’s strategic objectives in the 21st century: a. Bangladesh should develop political strength and be able to apply that strength with “right orientation” of the strategic environment in the next decade of this 21st century.

121. Available at http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/investigation/21362/ [accessed on 29 May, 2010]

89 Myanmar’s Strategic Objectives in the 21st Century: Recommendations for Bangladesh

b. Bangladesh should engage in more “dialogue-relations” with Myanmar and India for understanding of mutual dependencies and benefits in trans-national energy resources. c. Bangladesh should connect itself with allied countries willing to set up “nuclear reactor for peaceful” use as energy-source and pragmatically balance the likely ‘Minimal Deterrence’ capability of Myanmar. CONCLUSION Being in the center of networks, with opportunities to develop, engage and survive, Myanmar would probably not fail to assess the prevailing strategic environment, if the calculations of strategic resources and strategic concepts for appropriate strategic objectives are done with required synergy and symmetry. For intangible strategic resources within the internal strategic environment, study of the historical background as far as 53 BC, revealed that imperviousness and intransigence with attitude of xenophobe and siege mentality were virtually their strength to survive in long isolation within the ethnic dynasties or kingdoms. All these Empires did rise and sustain with economic prosperity for longer period when represented the ‘continuities’ of periodic behavior but fell when ruled with aperiodic behavior. Its tangible strategic resources are fundamentally the minerals, abundance of needed energy and the advantages of geo-strategic location. Independent study of bilateral relationship with China and India revealed that energy-rich Myanmar was conceptually inclined towards China allowing energy link between Sittwe with Yunnan. The regime was equally inclined towards India, but to a lesser degree, though allowed to develop energy link between Sittwe and Mizoram. This trilateral network would ensure economic development in Myanmar. On the second note, by keeping engaged with southern neighboring countries, Myanmar used ASEAN as a gateway to engage with European Union and the United States. Though all sanctions by EU and US so far have proved nothing but more space for China and India in Myanmar but yet study has indicated emergence of another trilateral network for engagement. When these both trilateral networks appeared to be the most probable strategic objectives of Myanmar in the 21st century by all fairness, the emergence of third bi or trilateral network appeared to be the most dangerous strategic objectives. The study of relationship with North Korea has revealed recent reestablishment of diplomatic relation between these two countries was based on hypothesis of ‘commonalities’. The fear of nuclear link between these two pariah states became more authentic when US Government expressed their serious concern of military cooperation. This could be a bi or trilateral network with likely support of a third country. This might let the emergence of 3rd bi or trilateral network for survival, which might seriously implicate the national

90 security of neighbors including Bangladesh. Nevertheless, future cannot be predicted in strategic studies while can only be anticipated with conditions through strategic effects.

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87. Squassoni, Sharon, “Weapons of Mass destruction: Trade between North Korea and Pakistan”, CRS Report for Congress, The Library of Congress, 28 November, 2006. 88. Taylor, Robert, “The State and statism in Burma (Myanmar)”, London, Winter 2009. 89. Trevor Wilson, “Foreign Policy as a Political Tool: Myanmar 2003- 2006”, Available at http://epress.anu.edu.au/ myanmar/pdf/ch05.pdf. 90. Tuli Sinha, China-Myanmar Energy Engagements Challenges and Opportunities for India, Southeast Asia Research Programme (SEARP)Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi developing an alternative framework for peace and security in the region, IPCS Issue Brief no 134, December, 2009. 91. Union of Myanmar: length of border with immediate neighboring countries, Available at https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the- world-factbook/geos/bm.html. 92. Vibhanshu Shekhar, “A Federal Democratic Myanmar-India’s Strategic Imperative”, An article published in IPCS ISSUE BRIEF, No 67, New Delhi, May 2008. 93. Wit, Joel S, “Four Scenarios for a Nuclear North Korea”, Paper prepared for the US-Korea Institute at School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University, Washington DC, February 2010. 94. Wook, Chung Chong, “The Korean Peninsula in China’s Grand Strategy: China’s role in Dealing with North Korea’s Nuclear Quandary, Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore, 8 March 2010. 95. Wyler, Liana Sun, “Burma and Transnational Crime”, Congressional Research Service, 25 Ocotber, 2007. 96. Xuegang, Zhang, “Southeast Asia and Energy: Gateway to Stability,” China Security, Volume 3 No 2, World Security Institute, Washington DC - 20036, US, Spring 2007. 97. Xiaolin Guo, “Towards Resolution: China in the Myanmar Issue”, Uppsala University, Sweden, 2007. Available at http://www. silkroadstudies.org/new/docs/Silkroadpapers/2007/. 98. Yarger, Harry R, Strategic Theory for the 21st Century: The Little Book on Big Strategy, February 2006, Available at http://www. StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/.

98 Websites 1. http://www.myanmars.net/myanmar/facts-about-myanmar.htm. 2. http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/where/asia/country-cooperation/myanmar/ myanmar_en.htm. 3. http://www.ritsumei.ac.jp/acd/cg/ir/college/bulletin/e-vol1/1-3shee.pdf4. 4. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bm.html. 5. http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/ north-east-asia/china/177-chinas- myanmar-dilemma.aspx. 6. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burma. 7. http://www.statoids.com/umm.html. 8. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Peace_and_Development_Council. 9 http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.dfid.gov.uk/three- disease-fund.pdf. 10. http://www.wikipedia.org. 11. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Minister_of_Burma#List_of_Heads_of_ Government. 12. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Than_Shwe. 13. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khin_Nyunt. 14. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soe_Win. 15. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thein_Sein. 16. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rakhine_State. 17. http://www.abitsu.org/?p=2859. 18. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/. 19. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jyotindra_Nath_Dixit. 20. http://www.biiss.org/elahi.pdf. 21. http://www.aseansec.org/64.htm. 22. http://www.idea.int/asia_pacific/burma/upload/exec_summary.pdf. 23. http://www.aseansec.org/20100.htm. 24. http://www.aseansec.org/24509.htm. 25. http://www.aseansec.org/24509.htm. 26. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange_revolution. 27. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffron_revolution. 28. http://www.aseansec.org/23222.

99 Myanmar’s Strategic Objectives in the 21st Century: Recommendations for Bangladesh

29. http://www.unscburma.org/Updates/2007/UNSCUpdate 12 January, 2007. html. 30. http://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2010/05/141669.htm. 31 http://www.asean.org/22122.htm. 32. http://ec.europa.eu/external_relations/myanmar/index_en.htm. 33. http://ec.europa.eu/external_relations/myanmar/index_en.htm. 34. http://www.deltha.ec.europa.eu/Myanmar/MM2008/BurmaMyanmarSP 2007-2013EN.pdf 35. http://www.mizzima.com/news/world/3867-eu-renews-sanctions-against- burmese-regime-.html, 36. http://en.wikipedia.org/ wiki/ 37. http://www.aseminfoboard.org/page.phtml?code=About 38. http://ec.europa.eu/external_relations/myanmar/index_en.htm, 39. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/HG19Ae01.html 40. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/JJ04Ae01.html 41 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oplan_5027 , http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/ detail/burma-a-nuclear-wanabee-suspicious-links-to-north-korea-high-tech- procureme/ 42. http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/burma-a-nuclear-wanabee- suspicious-links-to-north-korea-high-tech-procureme/ 43. http://www.journalgazette.net/article/20090930/BLOGS01/909309959, 44. http://www.the-diplomat.com/001f1281_r.aspx?artid=371 45. http://www.the-diplomat.com/001f1281_r.aspx?artid=371 46. http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/burma-a-nuclear-wanabee- suspicious-links-to-north-korea-high-tech-procureme/ 47. http://merln.ndu.edu/index.cfm?secID=151&pageID=3&type=section 48. http://merln.ndu.edu/index.cfm?secID=108&pageID=3&type=section#nuclear 49. http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/NK/Nuclear/47_1273.html, 50. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign_exchange_ reserves, 51. http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/burma-a-nuclear-wanabee- suspicious-links-to-north-korea-high-tech-procureme/ 52. http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/bangladesh/bangladesh_ transportation.html, 53. http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/investigation/21362/

100 Author Air Commodore Md Anwarul Haque Sardar, ndc, fawc, psc, was born in December 1962 and commissioned in the General Duties (Pilot) Branch in Bangladesh Air Force in 1983. He is a graduate of College of Air Warfare, Secunderabad in India, Defence Services Command and Staff College, Mirpur in Bangladesh, Pakistan Air War College at Karachi and Air Force Command College, Beijing in China. Twice he commanded the flying unit of his professional stream, later commanded different wings at different Air Force Bases of Bangladesh and lately Air Cdre Anwar commanded an Air Force Base before being detailed for the course NDC-2010 at Mirpur. Besides serving in different operational appointments, he also served in different instructional capacity like Basic Flying Instructor in the Air Force Academy, Instructor pilot in operational flying squadron and as Directing Staff in Defence Services Command and Staff College at Mirpur. In different staff appointments, he served as Director of Plans and Air Force Secretary in Air Headquarters. He also served as United Nations Military Observer (UNMO) in Bosnia-i-Herzegovina in 1994-95. Air Cdre Anwar attended many courses and seminars at home and abroad including the Executive Seminar in NESA, a center for strategic studies in NDU, Washington, DC. He visited sixty-one cities in twenty-four different countries covering 10% of the globe. He is married and has two sons. His recent hobbies include reading books and photography.

101 Women in Bangladesh Police: A Study on Gender Perspective

Deputy Inspector General Md. Motiar Rahman, ndc

INTRODUCTION All along policing has been considered to be a profession dominated by male. The social taboo for a profession which has been absolutely imprisoned within the citadel of the male forbids women to choose police as a profession. More so, social and cultural barriers reinforced by the absence of any robust effort on the part of the police profession to attract the women into it have created a stumbling block for the induction of women in Bangladesh police. Given the fact of the limited access to this male dominated profession, it is interesting to note that gradually the women have been breaking the barriers to take up police job as a profession. However, their performance is measured in the context of established male standard which have rendered them virtually invisible in the realm of equity model at least in terms of contribution to this profession (Sahoo, 2008). The role, status and performance of the women police in Bangladesh, people’s perception of the women police and the difficulties faced by the women police especially the role conflict arisen from their multiple roles while discharging their duties have been distinctly one of the neglected areas of research in Bangladesh. However, the present study attempts to examine the problems, issues and social perception emerging out of the role of the women police in Bangladesh from the gender perspective.

Background of the study Bangladesh witness more number of males than women since it is one of four countries in the world where male outnumbered females. Moreover, Bangladesh is characterized by a patriarchal, patrilineal and patrilocal social system. In spite of this preponderance of men over women, a large number of Bangladeshi women are engaged in various sector of the economy especially garment’s workers constitute a huge number of women. There have been the sizable number of women also working as teachers, lawyers, journalists, employees of government and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Their activities, in turn, contribute to the transformation of the traditional values and the gender roles of the Bangladeshi women (Pal, 2001). Still then, the society manifests the gender discrimination almost in all other spheres of life so as to facilitate them to participate actively in the social, cultural, economic and political life of the country. However, the Constitution of Bangladesh [Article, 9, 10, 27, 28(1), 28(2), 28(3), and 65(3)] guarantees equal rights to all citizens,

102 but in family matters such as marriage, divorce, custody, maintenance laws have been believed to discriminate against women (Mridha, 2008). It is against this background that the gender perspective of the women in Bangladesh police shall be taken into consideration: In view of the above strength of the women police vis-à-vis male police, Bangladesh Police demonstrates the bigger gap between male and female police Figure- 1 Percentage distribution of Male and Female of Bangladesh Police

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O , U H * 3 3 * 3 LN 6, WD ,* EO WR , 63 75 76 $6, 6 ', ',* +& $6 $6 1D WD 7R HF U QV $GGO VS 6 $GGO $GGO 6HUJHDQW ,Q &R Source: Bangladesh Police website, 2010. in matters of intake into police. It is interesting to note that some of the rank does not even represent a single woman police.

Review of Literatures: Gender Role in Law Enforcement The women police and their role have generated issues in gender debate and related literature of recent years. A significant number of such researches have been carved out in the context of Indian Police namely Rao’s (1975), ‘Women Police in India’, Ghosh’s (1981) ‘Women in Policing’, Mahajan’s (1982) study ‘Indian Police Women’ , Pandurangan’s (1983) ‘Women Police in India’, Aleem’s (1991)’Women police and social change’, Vishnoi’s (1999), ‘Women Police in India’, Bhardwaj’s (1999) ‘Women in Uniform: Emergence of the Women Police in Delhi’, Ali in his work, (2006) ‘Performance of women police’, Deshpande

103 Women in Bangladesh Police: A Study on Gender Perspective

(2007) in ‘Women Police: A socio-economic Analysis in Urban Background’, Sahoo (2008) in ‘ Women in Police Profession: An Empirical case of Delhi Police’, Natarajan (2008) in ‘Women Police in a changing Society: Back Door to Equality’. Since women constitute a tiny minority of police service, all these studies argue that the women police are not markedly visible and do not have equal opportunity of career development in the police service. All these studies have recognized the importance of the women police, have explored the socio-economic profile of the women police with a focus on the role conflicts afflicting the women police. But all these have not assessed the gender role in the enforcement of law in a given society at the macro level. There is an extreme paucity of any research on women police in Bangladesh. However, Huda, (2009) ‘Women Police in our criminal justice administration’ in ‘Bangladesh police: issues and challenges’, discussed subtle barriers to expand the role of the women police in the changed enforcement ethos and failure to integrate them into the mainstream policing in Bangladesh. Rahman, Akter and Faud (2009), ‘Women in Policing: An empirical study on Bangladesh Police’ in ‘Understanding Crime and Policing in Bangladesh’ eds Rahman, Rahman, and Kashem analyzed the socio-economic profile of the women police and the problems faced by the women in the police service and family life. The study, done at the micro level, is sketchy.

Scope of the study The scope of the study about the women in Bangladesh police is enormous in the context of the present day socioeconomic condition. The enforcement of law is highly imperative to arrest the surge of such crimes like the violence against women, trafficking of women and acid throwing. The overview of such crimes shows that a large number of women, both as victims and offenders, are involved [Interview with DIG (Crime) 3rd July, 2020]. In the context of security and liberty of women, women instead of males should be assigned to deal with female victims of crimes, to search female prisoners and to keep guard over female prisoners in police lock-ups in addition to the enforcement of law and allied police jobs (Vishnoi, 1999). There are the following statistics of women interned in jail in Bangladesh:

104 Table- 1 Statistics of Women Hazati, Prisoner and Detenue from 2005 to 2010 Year Hazati Prisoner Detenue Total 2005 12,535 2,578 -- 15,113 2006 12,980 2,385 -- 15,365 2007 14,518 2,631 08 17,157 2008 16,681 3,041 02 19,724 2009 16,753 3,162 01 19,916 2010 5,373 855 02 6,230 Source: AIG, Prison, 2010.

Women now outnumber the men in the formal sectors of employment, particularly in the garment manufacturing sectors in Bangladesh [Gender Statistics of Bangladesh 2008 (2009)]. But the female perspective to the prevention of crime and general police strategies have not received due attention from the society. It is imperative to integrate the security perspective of the working women into the enforcement ethos of police strategies. Therefore, more and more women police will be required for the enforcement of law and order involving women in Bangladesh. But the women police have not been strengthened as a potential catalyst to cope with the changing situation. The number of women police is very low i.e. 1.82% of the forces of uniformed manpower in Bangladesh. The total strength of Bangladesh police is 1, 24,366. Of them, the total male is 1, 22,097 whereas the total strength of the women police is 2269.

Objectives of the study The present study is primarily an exploration into the life of police women in the context of Bangladesh. Therefore, the main objectives of the present study primarily focus on the following issues: 1. To assess the socio-economic profile of the women police. 2. To evaluate the role of the women police in the context of gender issues with a focus on problems and issue, they encounter and social perceptions they hold. 3. To examine the socio-economic factors that have contributed to women’s joining police services. 4. To draw the general understanding of the police women’s perceptions on their training, promotion and other related dimensions in the Bangladesh police.

105 Women in Bangladesh Police: A Study on Gender Perspective

Methodology Since this research is an attempt to evaluate the role of the women police with reference to problems, issues and social perception, both the primary data and the secondary data have been collected. The data collected were then processed and analyzed quantitatively and qualitatively by using Statistical Packages for Social Sciences (SPSS). More so, the researcher’s close attachment with the institutional memory of the police and the personal experience gathered over a long period of time have given a new dimension to form pragmatic opinions and empirical analysis in respect of the women police in Bangladesh. For Stratified Random Sampling of the study, the sample size consisting of Inspector of Police, Sub-Inspector, Assistant Sub- Inspector and Constables was fixed at the figure of 100, i.e. around 4.63% of the total universe, which would justify the reasonable representation to various subordinate ranks of police. In accordance with the ranks of the women police, they have been grouped as under:

Table- 2 Sample Size According to the Rank of the Women Police as against the total population Rank of Women Total Number of Number of the % Police Women Police Respondents Inspector 53 7 13.21 Sub-Inspector 189 33 17.46 Assistant Sub- 253 40 15.81 Inspector Constable 1663 20 1.20 Total 2158 100 4.63

Limitations Since the women police have not been employed in every unit of Bangladesh police, therefore, the research may fail to appreciate the multidimensional approach to the law enforcement by the women police in a problematic society. On the other hand, women Assistant Superintendent of Police (ASP) and officers above the rank of ASP and the male police personnel have been excluded from this study and therefore, the study lacks the evaluation of their perceptions and viewpoints with regard to the subordinate women police in the field for wider understanding of the phenomenon. No case study was made at all within this limited time frame.

106 Women in Policing: International and Bangladesh Perspective The emergence of the women police is of relatively recent origin. In 1922, the Convention of International Police Heads recognized the women police as an important organ of the modern police to be assigned to investigate and prevent the commission of crimes. (Vishnoi, 1999). The United States was the pioneer in inducting the women in the enforcement of law and allied works. The International Women’s Police Association came into being in 1915 (Vishnoi, 1999).

Table- 3 Year of Entry of Women in Police in Different Countries Name of the Country Year in which Women Entered Police Service 1915 (Two women) Australia Canada 1896 (Matrons) 1974 (1 st batch of woman police) France 1969 Great Britain 1907 (Police Aide); 1916 (Police Woman) Guyana 1953 India 1938 Israel 1960 Japan 1946 New Zealand 1942 Poland 1925 Sweden 1957 1845 (Police Matron); 1893 (Chicago-1st Women USA in Policing) West Germany 1903 (Police Woman) (Source: Vishnoi, 1999: 39.)

In 1939, the women police were appointed in Kanpur (UP), Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai for the first time in India (Rao, 1975; Ghosh, 1981; Mahajan, 1982). However, it was only after independence that women were recruited on regular basis in various states in the country. By 1975, women were inducted in the police department in most of the states of the country. Kiran Bedi was the first lady officer joined Indian Police Service (IPS) in 1972 (Sahoo, 2008). Since the emergence of the women police in Bangladesh in 1974 recruited in the Special Branch to perform plain clothes duties, there have been evolutions in respect of duties and responsibilities assigned to them. First uniform women police were recruited for Dhaka Metropolitan police in 1976. (Shahjahan n.d).

107 Women in Bangladesh Police: A Study on Gender Perspective

Fatema Begum, now DIG, was the first woman police officer encadred as ASP in 1986 through the civil service examination conducted by the Public Service Commission(Raza, 2008). In the beginning, their roles were limited to assist in interrogation, search of female suspects and escorting the under trial women and children. But at present, they are assigned to perform almost in all spheres of law enforcement (Huda, 2009). It is in this context, the present status and role of the women police in Bangladesh can be evaluated.

Socio-Economic Profile of the Women Police of Bangladesh The socio-economic profile of the personnel inducted into any organization gives the important clue to know their background, age, qualification, marital status, religion, family size, relatives, religion, and type of residence etc. However, these will also help to get a clear picture about the background of the women who joined the police service.

Table- 4 The year of joining of the respondents by rank Year of joining Constable ASI SI Inspector Total 1976 1 2 3 1977 1 1 1979 1 2 3 1980 1 1 1986 3 1 4 1987 1 2 3 1989 1 1 1992 1 1 1993 3 3 1997 23 3 26 1998 2 2 1999 3 14 1 18 2002 2 1 3 2003 7 1 2 10 2004 12 12 2005 2 2 2007 2 2 2008 1 1 2009 3 1 4 Total 20 40 33 7 100

108 Figure- 2 The year of joining of the sample respondents

Table- 5 The age (yrs.) profile of the respondents (rank wise) Rank below 30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55+ Total Constable 15 5 20 ASI 4 35 1 40 SI 4 17 5 4 1 1 1 33 Inspector 1 2 4 7 Total 23 57 6 5 3 5 1 100

Figure- 3 The age profile of the respondents (in percentage)

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109 Women in Bangladesh Police: A Study on Gender Perspective

Figure- 4 Respondents entry rank in the police

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Figure- 5 Marital status of all respondents

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110 Table- 6 The education level of the respondents at the time of joining Factors Constable ASI SI Inspector Total SSC 15 30 9 54 HSC 5 9 4 2 20 Graduate 1 11 3 15 Masters 9 2 11 Total 20 40 33 7 100

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111 Women in Bangladesh Police: A Study on Gender Perspective

Figure- 9 The occupation of the respondents’ father

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112 Figure- 11 Type of residence of the respondents

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Figure- 12 The occupation of the respondents before joining police

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113 Women in Bangladesh Police: A Study on Gender Perspective

The socio-economic profile from the above tables and figures reveals that the earliest recruitment of the women police in this sample was made in 1976 though the recruitment of the women police in Bangladesh began back in 1974. The figure also indicates that the majority of the sample size are in the age group of 30-35. Almost one third of the sample size joined as constables, the lowest tier of the entry points in the Bangladesh police. A sizable number of them were promoted to the higher ranks. All these indicate that the police department offers ample opportunity to the women police for promotion to the higher rank. The study manifests that almost all except a few respondents were married. Majority of the respondents are Muslims. It reveals that the police women’s husbands have been engaged in variety of professions but majority of the women police’s husband are male police which means that the police profession for women have not made any significant impact at all levels of society at least in case of this social event marriage. Virtually, they could not break the barriers to go beyond the police family to choose a male as a life partner. As to the formal academic qualification, a good number of them are of minimum SSC level. Except a few, all the fathers of the respondents have various levels of educational background with profession either as agriculturists or businessman or members of police service. 3 members and 4 members’ family size dominate the sample. However, respondents have been living either in the government or the rented house. It also reveals that almost all the respondents were studying before joining the police. Since the presence of any relative in the police has sometimes acted as socializing factor for the police women, 48.48% respondents of the sample have relatives in the police department. In spite of perceived constraints and organizational inertia, 51.52% of them who joined the police do not have any relative in the police department. The women police have gone beyond the orbit of familial socialization process. This reflects the increasing sensitization regarding gender issues and empowerment of women taking a stronghold in Bangladesh.

Role of the Women Police: Problems, Issues and Social Perceptions Policing may not be an attractive job for the women when compared to other jobs in Bangladesh. The inherent nature of the works of police constitute elements of control of behaviour, enforcement of law often at odd hours, prevention and detection of crimes and bringing perpetrators to the court of justice. Such type of work sometimes generates unpleasant social interactions. This job also requires extraordinary strength, hardihood and strong commitments (Natarajan, 2009). In this context, it is interesting to know the role of the women police, problems they encounter in the job and in the society, issues emerge from the activities of the women police and ultimately social perceptions of the women police.

114 Figure- 14 Factors leading the women to join police

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Figure- 15 Problems faced by the all respondents during the training under the male police instructors

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The above tables and figures reveal some factors which motivate them to join the police service of Bangladesh are the scope for social work, craze for uniformed service and liking for a challenging job in the police. Some of the responses emerge to demonstrate that they wanted any job either in the police department or any other organization in order to be independent and thereby they would earn a sense of empowerment in the society. The study also reveals that the majority of the women police have not encountered problems during their training. This demonstrates that the majority of the sample have taken the training very positively in spite of the

115 Women in Bangladesh Police: A Study on Gender Perspective

fact that the training imparted for the women police are rigorous with the high standard of discipline and regimentation since the training constitutes both tough physical and intimate mental training under the close supervision of the officials. Some of the respondents experienced verbal reprimand, harassment, protective and disrespectful behaviour from the male instructors. Figure- 16 The perception of the respondents about the general public attitude towards themselves

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Table- 7 The attitude of the respondents’ husband Factors Constable ASI SI Inspector Total Favourable 14 32 23 6 75 Unfavourable 1 3 5 9 Indifferent 1 1 Total 15 35 29 6 85

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116 Table- 8 Neighbour’s attitude towards the women police Factors Constable ASI SI Inspector Total Favourable 12 28 20 7 67 Unfavourable 3 3 4 10 Indifferent 2 4 9 15 Total 17 35 33 7 92

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Figure- 19 Factors for not taking any role by the women police in the decision making process involving the family matters

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117 Women in Bangladesh Police: A Study on Gender Perspective

Figure- 20 Type of problem faced by the women police in the house

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Figure- 21 Male colleague’s attitude and behavioural pattern towards women police

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118 Figure- 22 Behavioural pattern of male colleagues towards women police during night duty

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The above tables and figures reveal that the majority of their husband’s attitudes are favourable in the context of rampant and pervasive violence against women. A good number of respondents have felt the favourable attitude of the neighbour and community at large. In spite of the strained police- public relation, the perception of the majority of the women police about the public have been positive having significant impact to bridge the gap between police and public in a fledgling democratic polity of Bangladesh. Majority of the respondents have revealed that the male colleagues extend cooperation which is indicative of the result of the effort taken by the police department to infuse and instill gender sensitization into the minds of male colleagues. However, the women police like other women professionals have not been able to print any impact upon the important decision making processes of the family. In comparison to other professions, women police have expressed some disadvantages with regard to the mental stress, the physical strain, financial insolvency and welfare of the children. The women who serve in the police department do not probably get rid of the job in their own house. The double burden of works both at home and in the police service generates conflicting situation in their behaviour which drags them into a schizophrenic situation. In some cases, financial problem in a multimembered family of subordinate women police may be acute. On the other hand, this is obvious that working place in the police department does not provide any facility such as day care centre for the child of the mother women police. However, respondents are satisfied with the level of safety in their work place.

119 Women in Bangladesh Police: A Study on Gender Perspective

Figure- 23 Discrimination between male and female Police

3DUWLDOO\WUXH

1R (n=96)

Figure- 24 Nature of discrimination against the women police vis-à-vis male police

I \ Q ± H J Q RI UV R V XW LV LR LQ LR H LHV UH QJ KH UN RQ N RW VW OLW IG DV NL DF WX VL GHQF R 2W FL LQDW E DQ ZR SR FL VL 3O RP V 1D PD IU LP )D KH 3U R 'H 5H W FU +RXU RQ 'LV (n=80)

120 Table- 9 Factors responsible for discrimination Factors Constable ASI SI Inspector Total % Slow promotion for 8 13 10 31 35.63 want of vacancy Since jealous of woman police, male police does not want 2 5 7 3 17 19.54 women police to do better than themselves. The sanctioned strength of women in 9 4 1 14 16.09 the unit is very few Male police keep all assignments with 2 4 5 1 12 13.79 themselves Night and patrol duties are not assigned to 3 1 1 5 5.75 women police Women police are not 1 3 4 4.60 efficient in all fields Do not know reason 1 2 1 4 4.60 Total 16 35 31 5 87 100 (n=87)

Table- 10 The attractiveness of job in the police for females. Factors Constable ASI SI Inspector Total % Yes 19(95%) 36(90%) 23(70%) 7 (100%) 85 85% No 1(5%) 4(10%) 10(30%) 15 15% Total 20 40 33 7 100 100

121 Women in Bangladesh Police: A Study on Gender Perspective

Table- 11 Factors contributed to the attractiveness for police job by the respondents Factors Constable ASI SI Inspector Total % It’s secured job for 4 5 4 4 17 19.77 women One can get a police job with minimal 5 10 2 17 19.77 qualification, Police service gives power, position and 5 6 2 1 14 16.28 authority quota for women 1 6 3 10 11.63 Police will be able to promote better image 2 7 9 10.46 over the time. Matter of pride and honour to become a 2 3 2 2 9 10.46 police Unemployment 2 5 1 8 9.30 Craze for uniformed job 2 2 2.33 Total 19 37 23 7 86 100

Figure- 25 Job satisfaction level of the women police

9HU\VDWLVILHG 6DWLVILHG 1RWVRVDWLVILHG 8QVDWLVILHG

(n=99)

122 Figure- 26 Feelings as a woman police officer before public during the performance of duty

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Table- 12 Units wherein women police like to serve Type of works Constable ASI SI Inspector Total % Desk work 15 29 23 2 69 46.31 Investigation 1 17 17 2 37 24.83 Duty officer in Thana 2 12 6 20 13.42 VVIP duty 4 3 3 10 06.71 Telephone duty 4 3 1 08 05.37 Patrol 2 1 03 02.02 Sentry duty 0 0 0 0 0 Traffic duty 1 1 0.67 Execution of process 1 1 0.67 Others 0 0 0 0 0 Total 22 68 52 7 149 100 (n=149 because of multiple options)

123 Women in Bangladesh Police: A Study on Gender Perspective

Table- 13 Units wherein women police do not like to serve Unit Constable ASI SI Inspector Total Traffic 12 15 18 4 49 RRF 8 8 7 1 24 SAF 1 17 6 24 Railway 4 8 8 20 No disliking 1 9 6 1 17 Outpost 5 4 7 16 Highway 3 6 6 15 APBN 2 5 4 11 Any unit 1 4 1 6 RAB 3 3 6 Dist. Police 1 2 3 Court 1 1 2 Thana 1 1 2 Office 2 2 Metro Police 1 1 2 SB 1 1 Total 41 83 69 7 200

Figure- 27 Units wherein women police do not like to serve shown in percentage

W W \ \ F % UW ) D R J QL IL FH FH FH WU 6% RV LQ OL OL X DQ DI 6$) 5$ 55 WS &RX OLN 2IIL 0H $3%1 7U Q\ 3R 3R 7K LV 5DLOZD 2X $ +LJKZD G VW 'L 1R (n=200 because of multiple options)

124 As the above tables and figures reveal, the respondents have a feeling of discrimination against the male colleagues in matters of promotion, the male jealousy, chauvinism and dominance. In spite of these perceived discrimination in various field, virtual domination of male police and traditionally known as masculine profession, the job satisfaction level of the women police is very good. Moreover, the perception of the women police while they perform their duties in view of the public is very favourable and good. This sort of professional pride and job satisfaction should be instrumental in bringing about a positive dimension in the law enforcement apparatus of the government and also helps in promoting the community based policing in Bangladesh. The professional pride is really an asset of the organization to fulfill its goal in a democratic polity. Since the women police have not been internalized into the mainstream policing, majority respondents have shown strong preference to the desk work and secretariat service. Patrol, traffic duty and execution of process require time, forbearance, energy, stamina and strong commitment. Women police have shown little interest in such work. On the other hand, respondents do not like to serve in traffic, Range Reserve Force, Special Armed Force, Railway, Outpost, Highway, Armed Police Battalion and Rapid Action Battalion etc.

RECOMMENDATIONS During the survey, a plethora of specific recommendations have emerged out which would ultimately improve the professionalism, self-dignity and recognition of the women police in Bangladesh. Observations and suggestions on the basis of empirical study are given below: 1. More and more women should be recruited in Bangladesh i.e. the quota for the women should either be eliminated or increased. Moreover, their potentialities should be tapped fully and properly by giving them all types of practical training with a view to assigning them to duties in the domain of core policing. 2. In the case of husband police, senior officers should take into consideration to accommodate both of them to the same place so that they may get the opportunity to live together. More so, frequent transfer without valid reason may have a negative impact on the job satisfaction level since it creates enormous complication and problem for the subordinate women police. 3. The women police as a mother has to face enormous mental agonies for not taking care of the child. Generally, the nearest relatives do this job; otherwise domestic help is the last resort. In such cases, a day care centre managed and maintained by police shall be imperative to relieve the women police of this tribulation.

125 Women in Bangladesh Police: A Study on Gender Perspective

4. Maternity leave for the women police should be extended either for 6 months or more than 6 months instead of four months. 5. The arrangement of vehicles should be made to drop the women police at their residence after the completion of their duty. Pick and drop transport facilities shall be available to the women police to bring them from home to work place whenever they are called for urgent and emergency duties. 6. It has been learnt that the women police have strong preference to be drafted in the Police Formed Unit in UN peace keeping mission since this offers the chance to go abroad and to earn a large sum of money as allowance. 7. A special allowance for the women police should be increased to meet the overall increasing cost of living. 8. The construction of residential accommodation for the women police is highly imperative. The women police barrack should be constructed for unmarried women. 9. Arrangement of a separate ladies’ toilet and ladies’ room at every police station and units are highly essential. 10. Working hours for the women police should be restricted to 8 hours only. Police work should be in different shifts. Each shift shall be of 8 hours only. 3 shift systems should be followed as work norms. 11. Salwar Kamiz should be allowed in the working places side by side the uniform prescribed for the women police. At least, women who are above the age of 40 years should be allowed to wear ‘Salwar Kamiz’ or police saree. 12. Proper measures and robust efforts should be taken to make the profession more attractive to women so as to break the barrier and misperception about the police with a view to recruiting women from all segments of the society. In the new paradigm of the police profession, however, the intake of both male and female on the model of gender balance will certainly pave the way for the enforcement of law in a better way to render service to the community in a democratic setting. In spite of the traditional gender based impediments, women shall have to be integrated into the core policing so as to give new impetus to the enforcement apparatus of the country. All members of the Bangladesh police in particular and the society in general shall have to be more dynamic, pragmatic and positive in overcoming the role conflicts encountered by the women police.

126 CONCLUSION In fact, the women police demonstrated better performance than the male in special cases involving the women and the children, community based policing to eradicate minor delinquencies, drug addiction and social crimes. The study finds that the women police have limited role in the process of decision making involving family matters which is also in consistent with the other professional women of Bangladesh. More so, the respondent’s job satisfaction level is very good, they received cooperation from their male colleagues though the study shows that the women police with fewer in numbers have not been integrated into the mainstream policing and therefore, their contributions are invisible compared to the male colleagues.

BIBLIOGRAPHY 1. Ahmed, Syed Refaat, ‘Forlorn Migrants: An International Legal Regime for undocumented Migrant Workers’, The University Press Limited, Dhaka. Bangladesh, 2000. 2. Ahuja, Ram, ‘Crime against women’, Rawat Publications, Jaipur, 1987. 3. Agarwal, R.S, ‘Prevention of Crime’, Radiant Publishers, New Delhi, 1977. 4. Bhardwaj, R K, ‘Indian Police Administration’, National Publishing House, New Delhi, 1978. 5. Begum, S. Mehartaj, ‘District Police Administration’, Anmol Publications Pvt. Ltd. New Delhi, 1996. 6. Bharti, Dr. Dalbir, ‘Police and People Role and Responsibilities’, APJ Publishing Corporation, New Delhi, 2006. 7. Chaturvedi, S. K., ‘Police and Emerging: Challenges’, B.R. Publishing Corporation, Delhi, 1988. 8. Chaturvedi, J. C., ‘Police Administration and Investigation of Crime’, Isha Book, New Delhi, 2006. 9. Dikshit, R.C, ‘Police: The Human Face’, Gyan Publishing House, New Delhi, 2000. 10. Dhillon, Kirpal, ‘Police and Politics in India: Colonial Concepts, Democratic Compulsions: Indian Police 1947-2002’, Manohar Publishers & Distributors New Delhi, 2005. 11. Gautam, D. N., ‘What is Wrong Indian Police’, NBO Publishers Distributors, Nagar, Delhi, 1984. 12. Gautam, D N, ‘ The Indian Police- A Study in Fundamentals’, Mittal Publications, New Delhi, 1993.

127 Women in Bangladesh Police: A Study on Gender Perspective

13. Ghosh, S. K.,‘Women and Crime’, Ashish Publishing House, New Delhi, 1993. 14. Ghosh, S K, ‘ Social Order in India’, Ashish Publishing House, New Delhi, 1990 15. Ghosh, S K, ‘ Police Administrators Reminiscences’, Ashish Publishing House, New Delhi, 1989. 16. Ghosh, S K, ‘Keeping the peach: for whom the bell tolls: Police then and now’, Ashish Publishing House, New Delhi, 1989. 17. Jegatheesan, P., ‘Law and Order: In Madras Presidency 1850-1880’, B.R. Publishing Corporation. Delhi, 1987. 18. Kan, Anjanit, ‘Women and the Law’, A.P.H. Publishing Corporation, New Delhi, 1997. 19. Khan, Sultan Kabar, ‘Power, Police and Public’, Vishal Publications, Kurukshetra, 1983. 20. Kanetkar, V. G., ‘Future Crime’, Jaico Publishing House, Mombay, Delhi, 1988. 21. Mohanty, Samarendra, ‘Crimes criminals- A Socio economic Survey’, Ashish Publishing House, New Delhi, 1990. 22. Mawby, R. I., ‘Comparative Policing Issues (The British and American Experience in International Perspective)’, Unwin Hyman Ltd. London, UK, 1990. 23. Mathur, Pragya, ‘Stress in Police in India: Recognition. Diagnosis and Coping Strategies’, Gyan Publishing House, New Delhi, 1999. 24. Mehra, Ajay K.,‘ Police in Changing India’, Usha Jain, New Delhi, 1985. 25. Mohanty, Rashmi Mishra Samarendra,‘Police and Social Change in India’, Ashish Publishing House, New Delhi, 1992. 26. Pandey, A K, ‘Development Administration and the Local Police’, Mittal Publications. Delhi, India, 1987. 27. Parmar, M. S. ‘Problems of Police Administration’, Reliance Publishing House, New Delhi, 1992. 28. Qadri, S.M. Afzal, ‘Police and Law a Socio-Legal Analysis’, Gulshan Publishers Srinagar, Delhi, 1989. 29. Rahman, Motiar Md., ‘Blue Beret in the UN Peacekeeping Process: The case of Bangladesh Police’, Indian Journal of Politics, Vol-XL111, No-1, 2009, Pp.19-44. 30. Raghavan, R. K., ‘Policing A Democracy a comparative study of India and the US’, Ajay Kumar Jain for Manohar publishers & Distributors, New Delhi, 1999.

128 31. Raghavan, R. K., ‘Indian Police: Problems, Planning and Perspectives’, Ramesh Jain, New Delhi, 1989. 32. Rani, Bilmoria, ‘Female Criminality’, Easter Book Company, Lalbagh, Luchnow, 1987. 33. Roy, Jaytilak Guha, ‘Policing in Twenty-first Century’, Indian Institute of Public Administration, New Delhi, 1999. 34. Srivastava, Aparna, ‘Role of Police: In a Changing society’, A.P.H. Publishing Corporation, New Delhi, 1999. 35. Saxena, Anil K., ‘Professionalism In Indian Police’, APH Publishing Corporation, New Delhi, 1997. 36. Shah, Giriraj, ‘The Indian Police –A Retrospect’, Himalays Publishing House, Bombay, Delhi, 1992. 37. Saxena, Shobha, ‘Crimes Against Women And Protective Law’, Deep & Deep Publications, New Delhi, 1995. 38. Srivastav, V. P., ‘Indian Police: Law and Reality’, Manas Publications, New Delhi, 1997. 39. Sinha, Anjana Maitra, ‘Women in a Changing Society’, Ashish Publishing House, New Delhi, 1993. 40. Sharma, P.D., ‘Police and Criminal Justice Administration in India’, Uppal Publishing House, New Delhi, 1985. 41. Saha, B P, ‘The Police in Free India – Its facets and drawbacks’, Konadr Publishers PVT. Ltd. New Delhi, 1989. 42. Sen, Sankar, ‘Police Today’, Ashish Publishing House, New Delhi, 1986. 43. Shah, Giri Raj, ‘Indian Police- A Retrospect’, Cosmo Publications, New Delhi, 1989. 44. Shukla, K.S., ‘Collective Violence : Genesis & Response’, Indian Institute of Public Administration, New Delhi, 1988. 45. Sharma, O. C., ‘ Crime Against Women’, Ashish Publishing House, New Delhi, 1994. 46. Singh, Indu Prakash, ‘Women, Law and Social Chance in India’, Radiant Publishers, New Delhi, 1989. 47. Saksena, N. S., ‘Law and order in India’, Abhinav Publications, New Delhi, 1987. 48. Subramaniam, C., ‘Indian Police – A DGP Remembers’, B. R.l Publishing Corporation, Delhi, 2000. 49. Shah, Giri Raj ‘Image Makers: An attitudinal Study of Indian Police’, Abhinav publications, New Delhi, 1993.

129 Women in Bangladesh Police: A Study on Gender Perspective

50. Thomas, Terry, ‘Sex Crime sex offending and society’, Lawman (India) Private Limited, New Delhi, 2000. 51. Uberoy, Maj. Gen. Virinder, ‘ Combating Terrorism’, Intellectual Book Corner Pvt. Ltd. New Delhi, 1992. 52. Vadachumchery, James, ‘Police Criminology and Crimes’, Kalpaz Publications, New Delhi, 2002. 53. Vadachumchery, Dr. james,‘Sociology of Policing India: 2000 and Beyond’, Indian Publisher Distributors, Delhi, 2003. 54. Wright, Alan, ‘Policing An introduction to Concepts and practice’, Lawman (India) Private Limited, New Delhi, 2002. Author Md. Motiar Rahman, currently Deputy Inspector General of Police, was born in 1960 at Shatkhira, Bangladesh. He did his B.A (Hons) and M.A (Master of Arts) in History from the University of Dhaka. He joined Bangladesh Police Service in 1986 (BCS Police-1984). He began his career as Assistant Superintendent of Police at Patuakhali after the completion of the training at BPATC, Savar and Police Academy, Sardha. In the capacity of Additional Superintendent of Police, he served at Jhalokathi, Khulna and Chittagong Metropolitan Police. He took part in the Peacekeeping Mission in former Yugoslavia during the period from 25th June 1994 to 25th June 1995. As SP, he served at Police Academy Sardha, Lalmonirhat, Police Staff College, Mirpur, Chandpur, Mymensingh and Dhaka. He served as Commandant, Police Training School, Mohera at Tangail, Rajshahi Range and Vice-Principal at Police Academy, Sardha and Police Commissioner, Rajshahi. Then he served as Minister (Consular) in the Bangladesh High Commission, New Delhi for more than three years. As Deputy Inspector General of Police, he has been attached to Police Headquarters, Dhaka, Bangladesh. His hobbies are reading books and writing on police profession. He wrote two books. To his credit, he has some articles published in journals.

130 IRAN’S NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME AND ITS IMPACT ON THE SECURITY OF THE MIDDLE EAST: A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT

Staff Brigadier General (Pilot) Yahya Bin Abdullah Al Asiri, ndc

INTRODUCTION The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is a growing risk that could turn into major wars, thereby destroying the very existence of a small state or deforming the demographic, political and social environment of a larger state. WMD are divided into four major categories. They are chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) weapons. Since the mid-1980s, Israel, the United States (US), and other Western powers have accused Iran of pursuing nuclear weapons capability. Iranian officials have repeatedly denied these accusations and claimed that their nuclear programme is designed for utilizing nuclear energy for power generation. This situation was further intensified when Iran’s undeclared nuclear activities from 1984 to 2002 were revealed by the Iranian authority in the early 2000s. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the European Union (EU) have engaged in prolonged negotiations with Iran to verify her adherence to its Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) commitments. The Iranian case is an ongoing event with an indefinite future. Whilst the US and other major powers are getting impatient to see positive actions by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), the IAEA is trying to get Iran’s cooperation through diplomatic negotiation. The first to possess and use a nuclear weapon was the US, during World War II (WWII). It was quickly followed by the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1949. Later, the United Kingdom, France and the Peoples Republic of China joined the nuclear arms race. Amidst fear to an uncontrolled nuclear proliferation, the five initial nuclear weapon members began to discuss the method of controlling nuclear weapons proliferation. The NPT negotiation began in the mid-to-late-1960s and finally entered into force on 5 March 1970. A number of the premises of the NPT have temporarily legitimized the arsenals of the five states that had already developed nuclear weapons. It forbade other signatories to develop such weapons, but included no strategy to persuade states that refused to sign and

. Treaty on the Non-Prol iferation of nuclear weapons (NPT). The Treaty rests on two pillars: nonproliferation and disarmament. That is, the commitment by non-nuclear-weapon States party to the Treaty not to pursue nuclear weapons; and the equal commitment by nuclear-weapon states to move towards nuclear disarmament. The aim of NPT is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, to foster the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, and to further the goal of disarmament. The Treaty establishes a safeguards system under the responsibility of the IAEA, which also plays a central role under the treaty in areas of technology transfer for peaceful purposes. . IAEA, Treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, IAEA Information Circular INFCIRC/140, 1970, p. 1 Iran’s Nuclear Development Programme and it’s Impact on the Security of the Middle East: A Critical Assessment

it relied on the promise of the signatories to use nuclear materials for peaceful purposes only. States such as India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea have taken advantage of the weaknesses in the treaty and have managed to develop their own nuclear weapon capability. Energy security concerns and fears of climate change are making nuclear power more attractive. But with that, more states are seeking to master the nuclear fuel cycle to ensure a supply of nuclear fuel. The concern, however, is that the mastering of fuel cycle means states will have the ability to enrich uranium or separate plutonium, which means more states may become closer to having nuclear weapons production capability.The threats from existing nuclear weapons are still imminent. Strategic reliance on these weapons by nuclear weapon states and their allies undoubtedly motivates others to pursue them.Future plans to replenish and modernize these stockpiles create a sense of suspicion among many non-nuclear-weapon states.

Aim To analyze the implications of Iran’s nuclear program on Iran and the security of Middle East.

IRAN’S FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY, AND ITS ROLE IN THE SECURITY OF THE MIDDLE EAST Iran’s Foreign Policy in the Post Revolutionary Era. After the 1979 revolution, Iran has made initiatives to improve relations with her neighbors, particularly Saudi Arabia as part of her strategy to increase diplomatic relations with developing and non-aligned countries, as part of an effort to build trade and political support, now that she has lost her pre-revolutionary US backing. At the same time, Iran takes stances against the US and Israel as her major threat to her national security and as part of her stance for supporting the Palestinians. After the Iran- Iraq war, her relations with the EU have dramatically improved to the point where Iran is a major oil exporter and trading partner for countries such as Italy, France and Germany. China and India have also emerged as friends of Iran. Iran maintains regular diplomatic and commercial relations with Russia and the former Soviet Republics. However, the Russian sales of military equipment and technology to Iran have raised concern to her neighbors and the US, especially when Iran has an important national interest in Central Asia which

. Peaceful use of nuclear technology include health care, agriculture and energy production, but could not divert them to non-peaceful purposes. . Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei, Towards a safer world, Statements of the IAEA Director General, IAEA homepage, 2003 (Online). http://www. Iaea .org/NewsCenter/Statements/2003/ebTE20031016.html (16 September 2007). . ibid.

132 is the Caspian Sea oil. In relation to the regional and international Muslim states, Iran shows strong commitment to the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), especially with Saudi Arabia. Using the OIC as a platform to demonstrate its stabilizing role in the region, Iran had called for an emergency OIC meeting, as an immediate action after the September 11 incident, urging Muslims around the world to adopt a stern policy and engaging a holy war (jihad) against global terrorism. Iran’s softer policy towards the US had started even before the September 11 incident when Iran convinced the US to share her perception on the Taliban threat. Another important regional actor that affects Iran’s foreign policy is Turkey. Between the two, their security relations depend very much on the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) that requires both states to cooperate in common security matters such as reconstruction of Afghanistan (one of ten ECO members), arms and drug trafficking, terrorism and border security from Kurdish insurgency. As for Saudi Arabia, Iran had closer ties with her during the early years after the revolution so as to gain support from regional Muslim states. However, most of the Arab states especially Saudi Arabia, are not happy when Iran began to interfere in the Iraqi political turmoil. The Arabs states also raised concern when Iran supported the Palestinians and Lebanese in conflicts against Israel. Iran’s interference in those issues has threatened the Arab leadership in the Arab-Israel conflicts and Sunni domination of the previous Iraqi government. . Iran’s Security Policy in the Post Revolutionary Era. The 1979 revolution had resulted in the end of Iran’s relationship with the US and the emergence of a new ideology consisting of two concepts: export of revolution and independence from both the East and West. However, the direction of Iran’s foreign policy since then has been inconsistent. Iran’s domestic, foreign, and security policies cannot be separated. Looking at her security policy, it can be characterized firstly by, Iran’s need to ensure that the regime stays in power, and maintain its commitment to revolutionary ideals. Secondly, on border issues with neighboring states, Iran has tended to support the status quo with regards to territorial integrity, has avoided major military provocations, and has shown cooperation with her neighbors. the Iranian government has initiated a number

. Ibid. . Ibid., p. 258 . Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO, is an inter-governmental regional organization established in 1985 by Iran, Pakistan and Turkey for the purpose of promoting economic, technical and cultural cooperation among the Member States. ECO is aspired through cultural, historical affinities, infrastructural and business links and has embarked on several projects in priority sectors including energy, trade, transportation, agriculture and drug control. Current membership is Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyztan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. . D. Byman, S. Chubin, A. Ehteshami, J.D. Green, Iran’s security policy in the post-revolutionary era, RAND, 2001, p. 97

133 Iran’s Nuclear Development Programme and it’s Impact on the Security of the Middle East: A Critical Assessment

of adjustments on its national security interests and foreign policy priorities to enhance its national security and optimize gains from solidarities and alliances. These include adopting a new flexible approach toward the US; forging closer ties to Russia and Europe; improving Iran’s role and image in the international community and international organizations; fostering better relations with the Arab world; stabilizing relations with Turkey, Pakistan, and Iraq; enhancing regional cooperation; and exploring new security arrangements. Iran’s Policy on Weapons of Mass Destruction. Iran seeks WMD for several reasons. First, Iran has plausible geo-political reasons. One of Iran’s earlier reasons was the terrible damages to her cities and deaths of her population from Iraqi missile attacks during the Iran-Iraq War.10 In addition, nuclear developments in neighboring states such as Israel, Pakistan and India have also provided causes for concern to Iran. In addition to enhancing her deterrence capability, the WMD is a guarantee of status, forcing states to pay attention and treat her as an equal. Currently, Iran’s missiles arsenals are her high-prestige weapon system that demonstrates the level of Iranian technical sophistication. Iran’s long-range missiles as means of delivery system is part of her WMD development programme. Since Iran is currently pursuing to develop her nuclear infrastructure, Israel and other neighbors are worried that Iran may be using her uranium enrichment facilities to produce weapon-grade nuclear material. Until now Iran has no intention of stopping her nuclear enrichment programme as required by the Additional Protocol.11

Regional and Extra-Regional States Standpoint on Iran’s Nuclear Development Programme a. Arab States’ Stance on Iran’s Nuclear Development Programme. The Arab states standpoint towards Iran’s nuclear development programme is derived from the GCC policy and views from influential Arab leaders. All of these countries share a common sea lane with Iran. The non-GCC countries that are close to the Iranian borders are Iraq, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon with only common policy between the GCC, and the rest of the Arab states with Iran is the common dislike for Israel. Iran has been a concern to the Arab states for a long time, with an ongoing issue of Iran’s 1970 occupation of three small islands claimed by the UAE; Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa.12 The general non-proliferation policy of the GCC are mentioned

10. R. Takeyh, Re-imagining US-Iranian relations, Survival, 44(3), 2002, p. 29 11. S. Squassoni, Iran’s nuclear program:recent developments, CRS Report for Congress, CRS, 2006, p. 2 12. S. Henderson, The Elephant in the Gulf: Arab states and Iran’s nuclear program, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2005 (Online). http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/print.php?template=C0 5&CID=2424 (13 November 2007).

134 by the GCC Supreme Council in every summit, demanding the international community to make the Middle East region free from all forms of WMD including nuclear weapons. 13 GCC fears for Iran’s nuclear activities, which was affirmed during the GCC 26th Summit in Abu Dhabi on 20 February 2006, calling for a Middle East free from the WMD and urged Iran cooperate with the IAEA.14 b. Israel’s Stance on Iran’s Nuclear Development Programme. Israel is Iran’s major threat and adversary in the Middle East and Israel’s foreign policy in the region is the most important factor that affects Iran’s national security and the Middle East regional security. Therefore, to understand this situation it is very important to examine Israel’s policies in the Middle East. The main aim of Israel’s policies is to dominate the Middle East, either by its own military power or supported by allies, or by economic domination.15 The Israeli national security doctrine originated in the early 1950s places major emphasis on the role of deterrence and preemption. Israeli leaders feared that the combination of Arab rejection of the legitimacy of the Jewish state, narrow borders, and the absence of strategic depth, would lead to repeated military challenges. c. The United States, European Union, Russia and China’s Stance on Iran’s Nuclear Development Programme. The US is more concerned about the future of Iran’s oil supply while the EU, China and Russia are more concerned about their economic investment in Iran. However, as situation progresses, some of these states have shifted their stance to some extent in order to balance-up the situation. The US is justifying its opposition by asking why Iran seeks to develop nuclear power for civil use, when its exports of oil and gas already shows that she has enough energy resources. At the same time, based on the eighteen years of undeclared nuclear activities, the US is certain that Iran is developing her nuclear weapon.16 As for the EU, the organization has been working closely with the IAEA to solve the Iran’s nuclear issue through diplomatic means. As a result, Iran had temporarily suspended her enrichment activities from December 2003 until February 2006. A formal initiative on Iran’s nuclear development programme began on 15 November 2004, when Iran signed an agreement with the EU regarding

13. The closing statement of the twenty-sixth session of the supreme council, Gulf Cooperation Council King Fahad Summit on 18–19 December 2005, GCC homepage (Online). http://www.gcc-sg.org/sessions/ cs026.html (13 November 2007). 14. GCC fears Iran nuclear activities, TMC Net News, 24 February 2006, TMC Net homepage (Online). http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2006/02/24/1404366.htm (13 November 2007). 15. I. Shahak, The continuing aims of zionist policies in the Middle East, Middle East Council Journal (Online). http://www.mepc.org/journal_shahak/shahak16.asp (18Apr2007). 16. S.Y. Mousavian, Iran and the West: the path to nuclear deadlock, Global Dialog, Vol.8, No. 1-2, 2006, Pp. 70-71.

135 Iran’s Nuclear Development Programme and it’s Impact on the Security of the Middle East: A Critical Assessment

Iran’s nuclear development programme.17 In the agreement, both the EU and Iran reaffirmed their commitment to the NPT and Iran’s rights as the NPT signatory is recognized without discrimination. Iran and Conflicts in the Middle East. Major security issues in the Middle East have been due to conflicts and crisis between the Arabs and the Israelis to include the long going Palestine–Israeli crisis. Iran’s recent involvement in regional major war was the Iran-Iraq War (1980 - 1988). The war started in 1980 when Iraq invaded Iran for the sovereignty over the waterway between the two countries, the Arvand Rud (Shatt al-Arab).18 Iran was isolated throughout the eight years war with virtually no allies. She finally signed the UNSC Resolution 598 in July 1988 which led to a cease-fire on 20 August 1988. 19 after the US Invasion of Iraq in 2003.20 Prior to its invasion on Iraq, the US has invaded Afghanistan in 2001, which was the first major action taken by the US in its fight against terror.21 The defeat of Taliban in Afghanistan and later Saddam Hussein has freed Iran from old enemies and potential threats on both its flanks. Iran is now the strongest Islamic state in the region thus giving her big opportunity to emerge as a leading power in the region.22 With that reputation and current Iran intervention in Iraq and the Arab-Israel conflict, not only Israel but even the Arabs are threatened by Iran.

IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAMME Energy Needs and Technological Development. In March 1974, the Shah envisioned a time when the world’s oil supply would run out and declared, “Petroleum is a noble material, much too valuable to burn. We envision producing, as soon as possible, 23000 megawatts of electricity using nuclear plants”.23 Bushehr would be the first plant, and would supply energy to the inland city of Shiraz. In 1975, the Bonn firm Kraftwerk Union AG, a joint venture of Siemens AG and AEG Telefunken, signed a contract worth $4 to $6 billion to build the pressurized water reactor nuclear power plant. Construction of the two 1,196 MW nuclear generating units was subcontracted to Thyssen Krupp and was to have been completed by 1981. President Gerald Ford signed a directive

17. IAEA, Communication received from the permanent representatives of France, Germany, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United Kingdom concerning the agreement signed in Paris on 15 November 2004, Information Circular, INFCIRC/637, 26 November 2004. 18. L.G. Potter and G.G. Sick (ed), Iran, Iraq and the legacies of war, Palgrave Macmillan, 2004, Pp. 29- 30. 19. Ibid., Pp. 60-61 20. L.G. Potter and G.G. Sick (ed), Iran, Iraq and the lagacies of war, p. 201 21. Ibid., p. 201 22. Ibid. 23. Gwadat Bahgat, Nuclear Proliferation: The Islamic Republic of Iran. Iranian Studies, Vol. 39, No. 3, September 2006

136 in 197624 offering Tehran the chance to buy and operate a U.S built reprocessing facility for extracting plutonium from nuclear reactor fuel. The deal was for a complete ‘nuclear fuel cycle’. Iran’s Stance. The Iranian nuclear programme has been controversial although the development of a civilian nuclear power programme is explicitly allowed under the terms of the NPT; there have been allegations that Iran has been illicitly pursuing a nuclear weapons programme, in violation of the NPT. The Iranian government says it sees nuclear power as a way to modernize and diversify its energy sources, other than its large oil and gas reserves. The Iranian public, nearly all political candidates and the current government are unified on this point.25Iran says that nuclear power is necessary for a booming population and rapidly industrializing nation. In fact, Iran’s enrichment programme was openly discussed on national radio and IAEA inspectors have even visited Iran’s uranium mines. Iranian politicians compare its treatment as a signatory to the NPT with three nuclear armed nations that have not signed the NPT, Israel, India and Pakistan.26 Each of these nations developed an indigenous nuclear weapons capability, Israel by 1968, India by 1974 and Pakistan by 1998. There is no provision in the Non-Proliferation Treaty or anywhere else that allows Non- Proliferation Treaty rights to be declared as forfeited. Indeed other US-allied nations which were caught conducting secret nuclear experiments have not been declared as having forfeited their NPT rights. Present Status. On April 10, 2006, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmad inejad27 announced that Iran had successfully enriched uranium. President Ahmadi nejad made the announcement in a televised address from the northeastern city of Mashad, where he said “I am officially announcing that Iran joined the group of those countries which have nuclear technology”. The uranium was enriched to 3.5% using over a hundred centrifuges. At this level it could be used in a nuclear reactor if enough of it was made28. Uranium for a nuclear bomb would require around 90% enrichment and many thousands of centrifuges to be built

24. Nuclear programme of Iran. “Directive of U.S President Gerald Ford”. History. 1970s. Wikipedia. Internet: http://en.Wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Program_of_Iran 25. For Tehran Nuclear programme is a matter of national pride. Yale Global. Internet: http://yaleglobal.yale. edu/display.article?id=5448. 26. James Acton and Joanna Little, “The Use of Voluntary Safeguards to Build Trust in States Nuclear Programmes: The Case of Iran”. London, Verification Research Training and Information Centre, 2007. p.90 (VERTIC verification matters, no.8). 27. Michael Eisenstadt. “Iranian Nuclear Weapons (Part I): The Challenges of U.S. Preventive Action”. Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2003. p.2 (Policy watch, #760). Part 2 by Michael Knights; part 3 by Jeffrey White. 28. Nuclear Programme of Iran. History, 2000 to August 2006. Wikipedia. Internet: http://en.wikipedia.org/ wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran#Views_on_Iran.27s_Nuclear_Power_Program.

137 Iran’s Nuclear Development Programme and it’s Impact on the Security of the Middle East: A Critical Assessment

and operated. On April 13, 2006, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said, that the Security Council must consider “strong steps” to induce Tehran to change course in its nuclear ambition.29 President Ahmadi nejad vowed that Iran won’t back away from uranium enrichment and that the world must treat Iran as a nuclear power, saying “Our path is very clear. We shall continue with our activities within the regulations of the IAEA and the NPT. According to international law, Iran has the right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy.

IMPACT OF IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM Nuclear Issues in the Middle East. The Middle East is a region with the highest number of conflicts since WWII compared to the rest of the world. These continuous conflicts were caused by deep-rooted problems that led to insecurity and political instability in most states.30 The Lebanon and Palestine issues alone had led to eight wars since 1948 involving most Arab states, Iran and Israel. Added to the list are Iranian Revolution (1979), Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), Iraq invasion of Kuwait(1990), the Gulf War between the US and Iraq (1991) and finally the US invasion of Iraq (2003). Those were major wars that brought the region to the present level of conflict and security complication. Such insecurity that existed over a long period has resulted in an arms race of conventional and unconventional weapons between regional states.31 The fragile security environment is currently worsened by numerous regional states developing combinations of WMD such as nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons. These states are also developing or acquiring long-range missile capability for the WMD delivery system.32 In addition, the presence of ‘the axis of evil’ and ‘the rogue states’ as branded by the US, such as Iran, Iraq, Libya and Syria have increased the level of regional insecurity, as they are subjected to the US intervention that could harm the security in the Middle East. international organisations such as the UN and the IAEA are currently under pressure to take stern action against Iran’s nuclear development programme. International Concern on Iran’s Nuclear Development Programme. International concern, especially by the UNSC and the US on Iran’s nuclear development is mainly on its intention to build nuclear weapons. Through IAEA

29. Nicholas R.Burns. “A Conversation on Iran and U.S. National Security”. Washington, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution, February 14, 2007. 30. G. Baghat, Prospects for nuclear weapons free zone in the Middle East, World Affairs,169(4), 2007, p.163 31. Ibid. 32. A.H. Cordesman, K. Al-Rodhan, and B. Roshan, Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East:The impact on the regional military balance, Center for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS, Washington DC, 2005, Pp. 3-5

138 inspections, Iran’s uranium enrichment activities conducted in a pilot enrichment plant can be used to develop weapon-grade material for nuclear weapon development. In an earlier inspection by the IAEA in 2003, small amounts of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU)33 particles were detected at the nuclear sites in Natanz pilot plant . Iran admitted that she had purchased some used uranium enrichment equipment from Pakistan34 and claimed that the HEU particles found were contaminants from the used enrichment equipment.35 Iran however, on 11 April 2006 admitted that they had actually conducted some enrichment research processes but had only enriched the uranium to 3.5% U-235, which is reactor- grade uranium (3% to 4% U-235) to produce safe nuclear energy.36 Iran also admitted that she was pursuing a laser enrichment research that had already begun in the 1970s. The UNSC and the US concern over Iran’s intention to develop nuclear weapons increased when Iran finally admitted in November 2005 that she was also being supplied with information on casting and machining of parts for nuclear weapons. Based on the current information gathered by the IAEA and on the 2005 US National Intelligence Estimate, the calculated earliest time that Iran may be able to build a nuclear weapon is in 2015.37 Iran’s Nuclear Development Programme and the Growing Insecurity in the Middle East. Iran’s nuclear development has affected regional views on her role in the Middle East security. To discuss this issue further, it is very important to understand Iran’s security role in the Middle East. Iran is building its defense industry to ensure self-sufficiency and military supremacy in order to achieve reliable strategic deterrence against its adversaries, regionally and internationally.38 The complex relations between Iran-Arab, Iran-Israel and Arab- Israel are the main reasons for the complications in the Middle East security issues. The feeling of insecurity within the Middle East states is very high. On the other hand, the level of trust between states is very low.

33. High enriched uranium (HEU) is uranium enriched to 20% or above in the isotope U-235; low enriched uranium (LEU) is uranium enriched to between 0.72% and less than 20% U-235. 34. Ibid. 35. IAEA, The Islamic Republic of Iran and agency verification of Iran’s suspension of enrichment-related and reprocessing activities for safeguards, 31 January 2006, Brief by the Deputy Director General, 2006. 36. S. Squassoni, Iran’s nuclear program, p. 3 37. Calculations of nuclear weapons production are generally based on estimates of fissile material production. Assuming Iran has the necessary amount and quality of uranium hexafluoride to feed the enrichment plant, the necessary components for building 1000 or 3000 centrifuges, and the necessary engineering skills to keep such cascades operating with few mishaps and little downtime. A cascade of 1000 P-1 centrifuges could produce one bomb’s worth of HEU (25 kg) in 2.2 to 2.7 months; and that a cascade of 3000 P- 1 centrifuges could produce the same amount in 330 days. Source: International Institute for Strategic Studies, Iran’s Strategic Weapons Programmes: A Net Assessment, Routledge, UK, 2005, p. 33 38. Ibid, p. 175

139 Iran’s Nuclear Development Programme and it’s Impact on the Security of the Middle East: A Critical Assessment

THE UNITED NATIONS’ ROLE AND EXTRA-REGIONAL STATES’ REACTIONS TOWARDS IRAN’S NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME The uproar of Iran’s nuclear development programme was generated by the US who is worried about WMD and nuclear weapon proliferation by its branded rogue state that could become supplier of such weapons to another branded rogue state or even worse, to other violent non-state actors. Taking measures from its 2001 Nuclear Posture Review, the US, supported by its strong allies the EU3, has demanded Iran to stop its nuclear programme through the UNSC and its professional body, the IAEA. The IAEA however, tends to be very diplomatic and patient in its actions against Iran’s slow cooperation. Even some of the reports seem to contradict each other. In one report, the Director General of IAEA is saying that Iran is giving its cooperation to the IAEA, and free from developing weapon-grade material, but at the same time making a statement that there are still some nuclear activities that cannot be verified. These are the main reasons for the US dissatisfactions of the IAEA’s conduct of inspections in the verification process. However, as of September 2007, the IAEA has given assurance that Iran has not conducted a process to produce nuclear weapons. Despite the US allegations that the IAEA is trying to cover-up Iran’s non-compliance act, the Agency is actually trying to contain the situation from escalating to another military action. Since the US, Israel and France have given a stern warning of a possible military action against Iran, the IAEA is trying to avoid another Gulf War by buying time so that a diplomatic resolution can be achieved. The IAEA also believes that Iran’s nuclear energy is for the good of world energy because as Iran continues to produce safe nuclear energy, she can still produce oil for the world and the US as the world top oil consumer. The Agency believes that Iran’s nuclear problem should be solved using a soft approach because even if Iran is developing her nuclear weapon, she still has a long way to go. Therefore, if the international community is against a nuclear weapon Iran, enforcing sanctions of nuclear weapon material and technology is sufficient enough to ensure that Iran does not acquire any nuclear weapon capability. The 2003 Iraq invasion which was initially triggered by a nuclear non-proliferation initiative should be used as an example that use of force is a counter-productive action and will not help resolve the issue. Since the US has a high national interest stake in Iran’s and the rest of the region’s oil, it should begin to plan for a new initiatives to provide security guarantees to the Middle East by directly engaging Iran and stop the threatening strategy.

140 RECOMMENDATIONS Role of International Community. The International Community should mediate to ensure that Iran’s nuclear crisis is resolved amicably. The Iran has the right to acquire nuclear technology for peaceful purpose within the confines of NPT and her right must be respected. To ensure that Iran does not venture into nuclear weapons and cooperates with IAEA the efforts should be made through diplomatic channels. The issue must not be allowed to escalate to armed conflict as it would be disastrous for the international peace and security of Middle East. Role of OIC. The OIC must play a vibrant role in pursuing Iran to restrict herself to acquiring nuclear technology for peaceful purpose only. Iran must not embark upon the program to acquire nuclear weapons of mass destruction as neither it is in Iran’s interest nor in the interest of the region. Response by GCC. The GCC countries must remain unified on their stance on Iran’s nuclear program. The Iran should be pursued not to disturb the stability in Middle East. Confidence Building Between Iran and Arab World. There is a need to build confidence between Iran and Arab World. There should be a composite dialogue between GCC countries and Iran and confidence building measures must be initiated to develop trust between Iran and the Arab World. Responsible Attitude by Iran. The Iranian leadership must display responsibe attitude. The policy of confrontation would neither help Iran nor Arab World. Iran must full cooperate with IAEA and should address the concerns of international community. Iran strictly adhere to the parameters of NPT and must not deviate. Broad Based Security. There is a growing realization that regional and internal threats are most serious for the overall security of the Middle East. The Middle Eastern countries must think of developing a regional security mechanism to ensure that all their security concerns are addressed.. US-Iran Nuclear Stand Off. If the present US-Iran nuclear standoff escalates to an armed conflict, the situation will be very dangerous for entire Middle East. Therefore the GCC countries must persuade US and Iran to resolve the issue peacefully. Resolution of Palestine Issue. The issue of Palestine must be resolved justly in accordance with the aspirations of Arab world. This is the fundamental cause of insecurity in Middle East. If this issue is resolved there will be issues like Iranian nuclear crisis as the security situation would be stabilized.

141 Iran’s Nuclear Development Programme and it’s Impact on the Security of the Middle East: A Critical Assessment

CONCLUSION Iran’s ignorance to the NPT Safeguard Agreement has caused itself to be in a tangle of international pressure, sanctions and possible military action that have affected her international relations with regional and extra-regional states. Iran’s nuclear development programme is currently the world’s primary security issue, receiving huge international and media attention that has overcome other Middle East security issues such as the Iraq and the Palestine issues. From the study conducted, this thesis submits that Iran’s nuclear facilities have reached a technological stage that it can be used to produce weapon-grade material. However, as insisted by Iran, her nuclear facilities have not been deviated to produce nuclear weapons except for peace purposes. In fact, the enriched uranium produced is still too far below weapon-grade that it confirms expert opinion’s time line on Iran’s capability to produce weapon-grade nuclear material. Iran is currently giving full cooperation to the IAEA and all her nuclear facilities and products are currently under the IAEA safeguards and surveillance. However, Iran has no intention to abandon her nuclear development programme. At the regional level, Iran has emerged as the strongest threat to Israel after the fall of the Saddam regime in Iraq. With Iran’s support to the Hezbollah, Israel is currently vulnerable to Hezbollah’s missile attacks supplied by Iran. Therefore, when Iran continues to develop her uranium enrichment programme, Israel decided to take preventive measures to deny Iran’s capability because it is multiplying the threat to Israel. As a first step, Israel has warned Iran on a pre-emptive strike if Iran continues to pursue with the nuclear development programme. In the mean time, the security issues between Iran and the Arabs, which have been in existence from on-going disputes is further aggravated when Iran began to threaten the Arab leadership by expanding her influence in Iraq, by supporting the Hezbollah and Hamas to fight against the Israelis. However, the GCC member states, even though concerned about Iran’s domination of military power within the Muslim states, do not discuss much of the matter except for worry over nuclear contamination. With the above mentioned situations, Iran’s pursuit to develop her nuclear development programme has achieved the technological capability to develop weapon-grade material. This has great impact over the current security situations and is adding more problems to the volatile Middle East security.

142 This study concludes that Iran’s nuclear development programme that has achieved a technological capability to produce weapon-grade material. It has contributed to the increase of insecurity level of many Middle East states thus affecting the regional security. It has also changed the status quo relations by increasing the level of insecurity of regional and extra regional states. With Iraq, Palestine and Afghanistan issues in hand, the Iranian nuclear issue has added more political instability and worsened the security in the region. Finally, on a broader scope, the turmoil and uncertainty of the Iran’s nuclear development programme affects the world’s speculative oil prices. Any positive or negative changes affect the world’s economy. bibliography 1. Adams, M. (ed). Handbooks to the modern world the Middle East, New York, Facts on File Publication. 1998. 2. Afrasiabi, K. Iran foreign policy after 11 September. International Institute for Caspian Studies. Vol. 9, No. 2, 2003, Pp. 255-265 3. Bahgat, G. Nuclear proliferation: The Islamic republic of Iran. Iranian Studies, Vol. 39, No. 3, 2006. Pp. 307-327 4. Bahgat, G. Prospects for nuclear weapons free zone in the Middle East, World Affairs, Vol. 169, No. 4, 2007, Pp. 161-168 5. Bailey, S. D. Four Arab-Israeli Wars and the peace process, London, Macmillan, 1990. 6. Boyne, W.J. Gulf War a comprehensive guide to people, places and weapons. Illinois: Publication International, 1991. 7. Buzan, B. People, states and fear: An agenda for international security studies in the post cold war era, 2nd ed, New York, Lynne Rienner Pub, 1991. 8. Byman, D., Chubin, S., Ehteshami, A. & Green, J.D. Iran’s security policy in the post-revolutionary era, RAND, 2001. 9. Clawson, P. & Rubin, M. Eternal Iran: Continuity and chaos, New York, Palgrave Macmillan, 2005. 10. Cohen, R. Threat perception in international crisis, Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 93, No. 1, 1978, Pp. 93-107. 11. Collins, A. The security dilemmas of Southeast Asia, London, MacMillan Press Ltd, 2000. 12. Cordesman, A.H & Burke, A.A. The lessons of Afghanistan: War fighting, intelligence, force transformation, counter-proliferation, and arms control. Center for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS, Washington DC, 2003.

143 Iran’s Nuclear Development Programme and it’s Impact on the Security of the Middle East: A Critical Assessment

13. Glenn Kessler and Robin Wright. Israel-US shared data on suspected nuclear site. The Washington Post 21 September 2007. Washington Post homepage. (Online). http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/ article/2007/09/20/AR2007092002701.html (14 September 2007). 14. IAEA Safeguards and verification, strengthened safeguards system: Status of Additional Protocols. IAEA homepage. (Online). http://www.iaea.org/ OurWork/SV/Safeguards/sg_protocol.html (3 April 2007). 15. Iran timeline. IAEA homepage. (Online). http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/ Focus/IaeaIran/iran_timeline4.shtml#march07 (3 April 2007).Iran: we’ll soon join the world’s nuclear ‘club’. MSNBC homepage. 2007. (Online). http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12267675/ (3 April 2007). 16. http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/editorials articles/2005/10/29/irans_threat/ (24 October 2007). 17. Iran-Russia talks on Bushehr nuclear power plant on good track. IRNA 8 September 2007. IRNA homepage. (Online). http://www2.irna.ir/en/news/ view/menu-236/0709086607152019.htm (20 September 2007). 18. Iran president ‘ready for talks. BBC.CO.UK 13 Feb 2007. BBC News homepage. (Online). http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6357451. stm (14 November 2007). 19. Iran warns Israel against military threats over nuclear program. International Herald Tribune, 11 Nov 2007. IHT homepage. (Online). http://www.iht. com/articles/ap/2007/11/11/africa/ME-GEN-Iran-Israel.php (13 November 2007). 20. Jane’s Sentinel Security Assessment. US objections to Russia-Iran cooperation. The Gulf States External Affairs, July 2007. (Online). 21. http://www.janes.com/Search/documentView.do?docId=/content1/ janesdata/sent/gulfsu/irans080.htm (11 September 2007). 22. Jane’s Sentinel Security Assessment. Defense production and R&D-Iran. The Gulf States External Affairs, July 2007. (Online). Author Staff Brigadier General (pilot) Yahya Bin Abdullah Al Asiri was born in taif Kingdom of Saudia Arabia in October 1965. He was commissioned as Lieutenant (Pilot) 23 April 1987 on Royal Saudi Air Force Fighter Squadron. Having initially Basic and Advance Training Courses for F5 aircraft. He attended several courses at home and abroad. These include: Instructor Pilot Course march 1994 at Saudia Arabia, Flight Safety and Accident Investigation Techniques April 1998 at France, Transfer to Hawk Aircraft and completed transfer basic and advance

144 courses April 2000 at kingdom of Saudia Arabia, Senior Staff Course Jun 2002 at Kingdom of Saudia Arabia, Senior Logistics Management Course July 2006 at United Kingdom, the Executive Leadership Programme July 2009 at United Kingdom. He currently holding more than 2400 hours on Fighter Aircraft. He has served in different capacity in both command and staff. Some of his major appointment are: Flight Commander, 2nd and 15th Fighter Squadron, Operation Manager in 15th Fighter Squadron, Tanning and Operation Manager in 79 Fighter Squadron, Commander of 79 Fighter Squadron, Operation Manager in 7th Flying Wing, Maintenance Squadron Commander, Deputy of Logistic Wing Commander and currently Logistic Wing Commander and also he was Chief of Base Planning Cell for two years. He has visited several countries in Africa, Europe, Asia, America and Middle East. Among the countries visited were: USA, Canada, UAE, France, UK, Egypt, Jordan etc. His hobbies are reading, playing football and traveling. He is a Muslim and married. He has two sons and two daughters.

145 Role of the Domestic Aviation for Promoting Tourism in Sri Lanka

Air Commodore R.J. Pathirage, ndc

INTRODUCTION The drive to promote tourism in Sri Lanka is obvious and could be seen with the recent escalated activities in the industry. All governments have encouraged this endeavour in many forms. The current ‘tourist boom’ in the country is targeting to reach the pinnacle by becoming the leading tourist destination and the gateway to the South Asia. This optimistic approach with expectation of two million tourist arrivals in year 2016 to become the third largest national economy contributor would largely depend on better and competitive services provided to tourists; security, hospitality, diversified variety of accommodation and customer focused transportation network which currently has become one of the major concerns. Hence, an effective and efficient transportation system becomes a mandatory pre- requisite to induce a competitive advantage over other competitors. However, the existing means of transportation facilities in the country are in pathetic flight due to poor road maintenance and under developed rail network. Domestic aviation will provide a better option for efficient internal transportation. Speed, safety and comfort are vital features that should be capitalized in this industry even though the operating cost is relatively higher than all other modes of transportation. However, with the interest to promote ‘budget travelling’ as in many other countries could set a trend in making domestic aviation a more viable means of transportation within Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka has not capitalized on this growing trend mostly due to the civil insurgency for more than three decades. The development of domestic aviation sector has been hindered and has shut down many opportunities due to the security situation. However, with the dawn of peace, it is believed that a kick- start to domestic aviation will be a booster to revitalize tourism in Sri Lanka.

. Mahinda Chintanaya (2009), The election manifesto of the incumbent President of Sri Lanka, His Excellency Mahinda Rajapakse. . Ibid. . Dheerasinghe, K.G.D.D (2002) policy options for reforming the transport sector. Economical Review, Vol. 28, Sep/Oct, Pp. 2-3 . Sri Lanka Railways http://www.railway.gov.lk/future_plan.html

146 Rationale of the Study The boosting up of domestic aviation definitely has an impact on tourism in Sri Lanka. However, though these two industries are complementary in nature, their behaviours and trends are yet to be tested. Though, domestic air services in Sri Lanka began way back in 1961, unfortunately, the progress made in the industry has been relatively slow. With the recent dawn of peace, new opportunities for the economic growth have emerged to achieve the new national goal of being a Newly Industrialized Country by 2015. Boasting of a paradise on earth with a rich culture, amazing history, and mouth watering food, breath-taking sceneries, Fun, Sun, Sea and Sand topped off with the friendliest people, will not help the county’s economy, unless the basic infrastructure facilities are in place. A comfortable, convenient and reliable transport system is mandatory for the host and the guest. Currently, the lack of proper highways to cater for the needs of tourists has created a need for an alternative mode of transportation. However as of now, there is a gap between the desired and actual levels that is steadily leading to transportation problems. Therefore, the necessity to establish a proper domestic aviation transport system to offer safe, speedy and comfortable travel is evident for the enhancement and sustainability of the Sri Lankan tourism industry.

Objectives Specific objectives to be met in this study are identified as follows: a. To identify to what extent and in which ways the development of Sri Lankan Domestic Aviation would lead to promote tourism industry in Sri Lanka. b. To identify the most relevant factors influencing the domestic aviation to promote tourism. c. To identify the most suitable policy measures and marketing strategies to promote domestic aviation. Hypothesis The analysis of the industry in other countries shows a correlation of the domestic aviation and tourism. As such, a better arranged domestic aviation would be a pre-requisite for sustainable tourism in any country to attract tourists. In this context, the following hypotheses were selected to be tested in the study. a. Improvements of Domestic Aviation will not have a significant impact in promoting tourism in Sri Lanka.

. Tourism Industry and Aviation, http://pin2spu.blogspot.com/

147 Role of the Domestic Aviation for Promoting Tourism in Sri Lanka

b. Improvement of Domestic Aviation will create a significant positive impact in promoting tourism industry in Sri Lanka. Methodology and Data Collection The study deployed both qualitative and quantitative approaches by utilising empirical research methodologies and theoretical literature. Structured questionnaires were administered among foreign and local tourists to gather primary data. The primary data were then analysed using the Statistical mathematical models.

THEORETICAL AND CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

Theoretical Appraisal Over a period of time traditional mass tourism has changed dramatically into new forms of tourism. As in the conceptual model (Figure 2.1), the set of contemporary trends have influenced to affect this change and it will continue to influence the sustainable tourism. The demand generated in tourism is influenced by factors available at the originating point (Guest) and the availability of factors that guests desire at the destinations (Host). The product developed at destination is based on core components namely; attraction, accessibility, amenities, activities, ancillary services and available packages. Transport is one of the main components in tourism supply chain that plays a pivotal role in all forms of tourism supply. Accessibility to destination mainly depends on the mode of transport available to the tourist. Thus, better ways of reaching the destination not only secure the future demand for the product but will also attract and retain customers. Thus, a country’s capability in air transport will invariably determine the sustainability of tourism.

. Lohmann M, New Demand Factors in Tourism, www. repository.binus.ac.id/content/G1174/G117464796. pdf . www. upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-07022004-130908/.../00front.pdf

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149 Role of the Domestic Aviation for Promoting Tourism in Sri Lanka

In this scenario, the supply of different products offered in terms of air transport services is essential for the future sustainability of any tourist destinations. Therefore, it is beneficial the examining of air transportation; particularly the domestic aviation performance measures developed in the conceptual model in Figure 2.1.

Theoretical Aspects of Tourism Demand and Meeting Consumer’s Paradox The emergence of new tourism has led to their demands been driven by the push and pull factors described in Figure 2.2. The tourists’ attraction factors available with the host nation are considered as the ‘pull’ factors, while factors that a guest seeks are known as ‘push’ factors. An important factor of tourism demand determination is the economic distance; on how easily and economically a tourist can reach the destination. In other words the main concerns are the time and the cost involved in reaching the desired destination. Figure- 2.2 Push and Pull Factors of Tourism Demand

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. www.ecoturismolatino.com/.../naturemotivationecoturismolatino.pdf

150 The amount of free time and disposable income of residents in tourist origin areas determines the overall volume of demand for travel, pushing tourists towards destinations, while the differences in climate, culture and other attractions of the destination pull visitors towards it. Hence, the access difficulties such as transport barriers or poor infrastructure would inhibit the tourist flow to the destination. The elements of tourism supply are: attractions such as natural (land forms flora and fauna), man-made (historical and modern), cultural distinctions, accommodation, catering, entertainment, other affiliated services (provided by banks, shops, travel agents, and tour operators etc) and infrastructure development. The tourism supply chain comprises the suppliers of all the goods and services that go into the delivery of tourism products to consumers. Therefore, tourism like all other supply chains operates through business-to-business relationships. Hence, as shown in Figure 2.3, the mode of transport is a crucial component in delivering the product developed for the consumption of tourists. Figure- 2.3 Tourism Supply Chain Links

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Where the facilities are concerned, the entire infrastructure related to accommodations, communication, transportation is vital elements. In this context, it is essential to offer quality transport apart from other facilities. Thus, the use of air transport to facilitate their travel is the focus of this paper.

151 Role of the Domestic Aviation for Promoting Tourism in Sri Lanka

Tourism product offer at a destination has been categorised into six core component. The Figure 2.4 illustrates the six A’s framework for analysis of product and service offer to tourists. Accessibility and transport have a greater effect on tourism. A good transport system widens the dispersal of tourists and enables to reach countrywide destinations. Improving accessibility enhances the mobility. Therefore, better accessibility to any destination invariably creates high demand of tourism and determines tourist arrivals to a larger extent. Figure- 2.4 Six A’s Framework of Tourism Products & Services in a Destinations

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Source: Jonker J. A. www.upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-07022004- 130908/.../00front.pdf TOURISM DEVELOPMENT IN SRI LANKA

Demands for Tourism in Sri Lankan - Present Travel Trends and Future Scenario Today’s travel trends are totally different to yesterday’s and so will be tomorrow’s as consumer needs and wants become diverse and complex. Until recently, Sri Lanka’s major product has been the three ‘S’; Sun, Sea and Sand but recently turned into other products; eco tourism, adventure tourism, sports, ayurvedic therapy, culture and community tourism. Most of the tourist arrivals are for leisure but there is growing “business tourism” in Sri Lanka as the industrial sector being invested heavily by foreign companies.

. Tourism Industry and Aviation, http://pin2spu.blogspot.com/

152 Contribution of Tourism for National Foreign Exchange Earnings Following Table 3.1 indicates the contribution of tourism industry towards the National Foreign Exchange Earnings since 2001. Table- 3.1 Tourism Industry Contribution to the National Foreign Exchange Earnings (NFEE) EARNINGS(SRI EARNINGS(USD) NFEE YEAR LANKAN RUPEES) MILLIONS RANK MILLIONS 2001 18,863.3 211.1 5th 2002 24,202.0 253.0 5th 2003 32,810.0 340.0 5th 2004 42,666.0 416.0 4th 2005 36,377.3 362.3 4th 2006 42,585.5 410.3 4th 2007 42,519.3 384.4 4th 2008 37,094.0 319.5 6th 2009 37,506.0 326.3 6th Source: Annual Statistical Reports 2001- 2009 Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority

The Importance of Transport in Tourism Transportation is an essential support service to the tourism industry for the dispersal of tourists into countrywide destinations. Lack of proper transport facilities could be due to either inadequate infrastructure or poor management of the prevalent transport network. It could also be due to non availability of alternatives to the existing systems. Congestions are a major problem in road transportation. In Sri Lanka, majority of the above conditions exist and thus the convenience, reliability, comfort and safety of tourists travel are at risk.

Substitutes for Air Transport Sri Lankan Rail network is of vintage British era without developments. Road transport is congested, risky and uncomfortable. Further, an average of 2,000 fatalities per year has threatened the public safety to a greater extent. This too encourages the promotion of world’s safest air transportation in our domestic skies. Among the many modes of transportations, air transportation forges ahead of all the others in terms of speed, safety and comfort10.

10. Times of India, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/biz/international-business/Asia-now-worlds- biggest- air-travel-market-IATA/articleshow/5522824.cms

153 Role of the Domestic Aviation for Promoting Tourism in Sri Lanka

SIGNIFICANCE OF DOMESTIC AVIATION TO PROMOTE TOURISM

Domains of Domestic Aviation It is evident that domestic aviation is not confined solely to passenger transport. It also provides many other components as illustrated in Figure 4.1 Development of aviation as an industry has a catalyst effect on tourism. Therefore, prompt strategies are essential by authorities to gain competitive and comparative advantage in tourism industry.

Figure- 4.1 Components of Domestic Aviation

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154 Progress in Domestic Aviation in Sri Lanka Air transport has undergone a series of changes in Sri Lanka due to increased demand, competition, emergence of regional groupings, technological advancements and privatisation. Aviation as a mode of transport to the island nation is indispensable as over 99% of inbound traffic was channelled through air transport11.

Domestic Aviation Though the first airplane was brought to Sri Lanka in 1911, there were no significant domestic aviation activities until 1961. Thereafter, domestic air services had flourished until the government suspended operation in 1995 due to security situation in the country. The ‘Helitours’; the commercial arm of SLAF was authorized to carry out limited operations under stringent security measures. Such activities discouraged both the tourists and those who were interested in utilizing the limited facilities. Later, a couple of operators shared the heavy military air transport demand to the Northern Peninsula of the country. With the dawning peace, a ray of hope appeared. Today there are seven domestic operators (table 4.1) to satisfy internal air transport needs of tourists. Table- 4.1 Domestic Airline Operators Operator Flight Status Aircraft Deployed AeroLanka Charter/schedule Fixed wing Air Taxis Charter/schedule Float Plane Daya Aviation Charter Fixed wing Deccan Aviation Charter Helicopter Expo Aviation Charter Fixed wing Cosmos Charter Helicopter Helicopters & Fixed wing Heli-tours Charter aircraft Source: Surveyed data, 2010

The Role played by the Sri Lanka Air Force (SLAF) in Domestic Aviation SLAF controls over 90 percent of country’s aviation related infrastructure. At present, out of the 14 airfields around the country, the majority of the airfields

11. SLTB Annual Reports.

155 Role of the Domestic Aviation for Promoting Tourism in Sri Lanka

are operated by the SLAF (Figure 4.2). The Bandaranayake International Airport (BIA) in Katunayake is controlled and maintained by Airport and Aviation Services while the SLAF share the runway facilities. Figure- 4.2 Distributions of Airports in Sri Lanka

Source: Sri Lanka Air Force

SLAF has played a major role in domestic aviation. The expansion of Heli- tours operations can be divided into three eras; prior to the domestic air services ban in 1995, during the period of ban and after 2002. The available data are represented in Table 4.2.

156 Table- 4.2 Quantification of Heli-tours Domestic Aviation Demand Flying Revenue Flying Revenue Flying Revenue Year Hours (Rs: M) Year Hours (Rs: M) Year Hours (Rs: M) 1984 501.25 45.44 1995 N/A N/A 2003 177.3 53.04 1985 210.4 4.22 1996 N/A N/A 2004+ 163.1 29.59 1986 Not Flown 1997 124.3 40.55 2005* 81.1 15.96 1987 N/A 2.97 1998 115.4 8.51 2006 78.20 14.82 1988 N/A 5.31 1999+ 245.4 25.44 2007 96.40 18.39 1989 N/A 41.14 2000 133.1 14.32 2008 44.15 7.95 1990 N/A 9.7 2001 112.3 91.1 2009 278.25 66.35 1991 N/A 5.99 2002 132.2 21.23 1992 N/A 3.86 1993 N/A 9.07 1994 482.35 21.61 * Interim value (Only up to March) N/A: Not Available Source: SLAF History by Senaratne, 1998 and survey compiled data, 2010

The table emphasises that domestic flying activities have taken place over a considerable period. SLAF had the monopoly of providing domestic air services from 1995 until 2002. It has the competitive advantage over other operators as the Air Force owns or/and maintains most of the infrastructure. The important point is that SLAF is not in a position to meet the customer demand in full, as commercial operations are only a fraction of its operational scope. Therefore, the above Table 4.2 does not represent the entire demand of the country.

Demands for Domestic Aviation The demand for domestic aviation has neither been quantified nor empirically derived. Therefore, the significance of the industry has been overshadowed in spite of the demand being evident in many forms. In deriving the tourisms specific demand for domestic aviation, it is important to understand the main attractions of tourism in the country. The main attraction for tourists is the beach12. Other attractions too are mostly away from the Commercial City of Colombo. The statistics of tourist guest nights in hotels in 2009 as in Table 4.3 shows that only 27 percent of total guest nights in Colombo while the greater Colombo area with a lesser figure of 22 percent. This

12. www.goldiholidays.com/major_attractions_sri_lanka.htm

157 Role of the Domestic Aviation for Promoting Tourism in Sri Lanka

means that 51 percent of total tourist guest nights are away from Colombo or its suburbs, which involves extensive travelling. Sometimes road access to those destinations require a full days travelling due to the countrywide poor transport infrastructure which strongly influences the demand for domestic aviation. It is evident that air transport will definitely attracts the tourists who have limited especially the businessman travellers and investors. Table- 4.3 Foreign Guest Nights in Tourist Hotels – 2009 Resort Region Annual Total % Colombo City 758,595 26.92 Greater Colombo 602,233 21.36 South Coast 915,517 32.48 East Coast 26,025 0.93 High Country 92,720 3.29 Ancient Cities 423,397 15.02 Northern Region N/A N/A All regions 2,818,487 100 Source: SLTB Annual Statistical Report 2009 Compiled by Author

Bridge the Gap between Domestic Aviation and Tourism Demand As discussed previously, it is strongly felt that the demand for domestic aviation has not been adequately addressed. This has created a huge gap between its supply and existing demand. The tourists’ demand for a better transport system is achievable in many ways. Air transport is one of the best modes in terms of speed, comfort and safety and such factors are becoming pre-requisites in determining the tourists’ attractions to any destination. Sri Lanka being one of the contenders in the region with better prospects, should strive to meet the demand for two reasons. Firstly, it helps to be in par with the regional and global competitors while the second being the unsatisfactory road and rail network in the country. The Conceptual model in Figure 4.3 attempts to identify domestic aviation demand and its shape for the development of the tourism industry.

158 Figure- 4.3 Conceptual Appraisal of Sri Lanka’s Domestic Aviation for Tourism

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Dependant and Independent Variables Demand for domestic aviation depends on many independent driving variables which are mentioned below. These factors directly influence the tourists to select domestic aviation as a mode of transport for their travel destinations as it provides them wide variety of advantages. The applicability of these factors can be ascertained by measuring developed indicators in Appendix I. a. Travel Time. The time taken to complete a desired journey. b. Desirability. The extent to which it attracts the tourists to make use of domestic aviation instead of using other modes of transport. c. Affordability. The ability of the tourist, meeting the supply of air transport at a reasonable price.

159 Role of the Domestic Aviation for Promoting Tourism in Sri Lanka

d. Mobility. Reaching of the desired destinations with relative ease within a reasonable time at a reasonable cost and a choice. e. Accessibility. The availability of air passage to the required destinations where tourist resorts or attractions are situated. f. Reliability. The level of variability in air transportation service between anticipated and actual travel. g. Security and Safety. Safety and Security is minimizing risk of uncertainty in travelling.

ANALYSIS OF RESULTS The statistical tools; SPSS version 7.5 and Chi Square Distribution and MS EXCEL package were utilised for data recording, tabulation and data analysis.

Summary of Sample Data Two sets of independent structured questionnaires were distributed among both foreign and local tourists. Only 100 and 50 responded questionnaires from foreign tourists and local tourists respectively were qualified to use for the data analysis.

Comparative General Outlook of Tourism Demand

Foreign Tourists Profile The sample representation of foreign tourists implied that 55 percent on vacation, leisure or holiday and 39 percent arrived for business purposes. Further, indicated that 75 percent of tourist spent less than 14 days in Sri Lanka. Also 67 percent have visited Sri Lanka for more than once and more than 75 percent of tourists are over 40 years of age.

Local Tourists Profile The sample representation of local tourists implied that majority made their trips quarterly with their families and 75 percent of them are between 30-39 years of age. Interestingly 80 percent are willing to spend extra money on air transport to that of road transport.

160 Summary of the New Tourism Profile With the above details it is clearly evident that the product offering should be differentiated for both local and foreign markets. The Figure 5.6 depicts that both the foreign and local tourists indicated higher rate of willingness to use domestic aviation.

Figure- 5.1 Tourists Preferences to Use Domestic Aviation

Source: Surveyed data, 2010

Road Transport - The Tourist’s Perceptions As per the responses over 75 percent of foreign and local tourists are dissatisfied with the road transport and hence not conducive for the development of tourism. Though, there are several factors affect to this dissatisfaction, one of the major concerns is the time spent due to road traffic. The details are depicted in the Table 5.1. These responses, by no means, indicate future prospects in tourism. Such inconvenience in reaching desired destinations will lead to finding alternative modes of transportation. Domestic air transport would be the best alternative to overcome this issue.

161 Role of the Domestic Aviation for Promoting Tourism in Sri Lanka

Table- 5.1 Tourists’ Rating on Road Travel Experiences Foreign Local Among Same as Same as Among the most or most or the worst/ better than better than worst/not not as most/ most/Among as good as good as Among the best most (%) most the best (%) (%) (%) Concern of road discipline and safety by 77 23 70 30 the drivers Your safety as a 74 26 46 54 passenger Discipline of the other 72 28 80 20 motorists Convenient to travel 72 28 52 48 Time spent due to road 78 22 82 18 traffic Road conditions 74 26 74 26 Source: Surveyed data, 2010

Market Potentials for Domestic Aviation for Tourism Developments Tourists’ attractions are scattered in different parts of Sri Lanka and hence require extensive travelling. Over 99 percent of the inbound tourists use air transport on their arrival to Sri Lanka through the only international airport in Katunayake which is 30 km from the commercial city Colombo. These tourists may be willing to reach the desired destination straightaway due to the time factor and other reasons. Further, it is found that passengers would stay 6-8 hours on transit at BIA. For them, a quick round trip would be a bonus. As such, to cater for such preferences, air transport would be a worthwhile and convenient option. Figure 5.2 indicates the reasons to use domestic aviation by a foreign tourist in Sri Lanka. That amply denotes they are not satisfied with the road transport and would like to reach destinations quickly.

162 The foreign sample statistically indicates that they would stay in the country less than seven days which reflects the new global tourism profile, where the tourists’ stays are becoming shorter. On the other hand variety of attractions scattered in many parts of the island could be reachable with ease and less time, allowing the tourists to enjoy more time on their leisure activities. Thus, the speed air transport will have a definite edge over other travel options.

Figure- 5.2 Foreign Tourist’s Preferences to Use Domestic Aviation

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In contrast local tourists prefer air transport to get new travel experience together with their families which could be a profitable venture in providing such services to locals with an aggressive marketing promotional drive However both foreign and local tourists preferred for introducing budget air travelling probably with no-frill packages.

Present State of Domestic Aviation According to the survey, tourists have not consumed domestic air services to reach their destinations primarily due to lack of awareness on the availability of

163 Role of the Domestic Aviation for Promoting Tourism in Sri Lanka

such services. Therefore, it could be determined that the poor marketing has led the industry to such a grave state. Even though, few tourists who flew helicopters were higher than any other types of aircraft, the results were not statistically significant for any prediction on the type of aircraft preferred by the tourists.

Analysis of Conceptual Model for Domestic Aviation This study identified seven factors; Travel Time, Desirability, Affordability, Mobility, Accessibility, Reliability and Safety and Security that customers will consider in making preferences to use domestic air travel in Sri Lanka. The analyses of these parameters were measured with relevant developed indicators. The statistical analyses are mainly based on CHI SQUARE distribution as in Appendix II and the findings are indicated below.

Travel Time Following Figure 5.3 indicates the willingness of the tourist to save time.

Figure- 5.3 Tourist’s Willingness to Save Time

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In terms of travel time, most significant factor is the tourist’s willingness to save time. It clearly indicates followings as the timewasters: a. Adverse existing road travel conditions. b. Waiting time to boarding aircraft due to security checks.

164 Desirability Tourists’ willingness to travel by air is depicted in Figure 5.4. Figure- 5.4 Tourist’s Willingness to Travel by Air

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Source: Surveyed Data, 2010

As per the findings customers would as would not. a. Inner desire to travel by air. b. Travel comfort. c. Maintain class and prestige. Even though, many indicators tested to ascertain desirability of tourists, the results resembles that only the willingness to spend extra money is strongly significant in their desires to choose domestic air transport. However, other factors such as poor road conditions, travel comfort etc can not be neglected even though these were statistically insignificant.

Affordability Travellers in general seek wallet friendly air travel. Majority of people believe that travelling in an aircraft is not affordable. These figures are in figure 5.5. Hence, main consideration of the tourists to select air transportation is to be the price of air tickets.

165 Role of the Domestic Aviation for Promoting Tourism in Sri Lanka

Figure- 5.5 Main Reasons for NOT considering Air Travel

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Mobility The results of the tourists’ consideration on travel convenience are shown in Figure 5.6. Figure- 5.6 Tourists’ Consideration about the Convenience in Travelling

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The tourists viewed the mobility as one of the determinant factors to pick domestic air travel. As such, the bottom line is that if the tourists cannot easily reach their desired destination using a mode of transport, there is a strong possibility to satisfy such requirements through other modes of transport. One such factor, which hampers the mobility, is the peoples concern of convenience in road travelling.

166 Accessibility As per the analysis, it was statistically proven that difficulties in ticket bookings or reservations would be a significant/decisive factor. However, the demand for domestic aviation does not greatly depend on the non availability of aircraft or flights as any other modes of transport.

Reliability Only 26 foreigners and 1 local have responded for the related questions. As such, responses by the locals proved to be inadequate for analysis. However, as per the foreign tourists and the statistical analysis, it is proven that overall performances rating of flights are a significant factor to measure the Reliability.

Safety and Security Passengers concern safety and security in consuming the air travel services. Also, the insecurity and unsafe conditions of road travel enables the passenger to go for other options. The Figure 5.7 indicates the rating of the tourists over road discipline and safety concerns. This reflects over 70 percent of tourists rated road travel as unsafe and insecure. This factor will have serious impact on selecting air travel as an alternative to the road travel.

Figure- 5.7 Tourist’s Concerns over Road Discipline and Safety

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167 Role of the Domestic Aviation for Promoting Tourism in Sri Lanka

When considering the conceptual model as a whole, it is evident that the developed indicators (Appendix I) to build the relationship between the parameters for measuring the impact of domestic aviation attributes in different magnitudes. Some have negligible effect on parameters. On the other hand, some of them have not shown any statistical significance, though seen correlations among them.

Qualitative Analysis on Research Findings Many forms of obstacles which hamper development were surfaced during the study. The main obstacles which were surfaced are: a. Absence of a national policy. b. Political instability of the country in the past. c. Tug-a-war between defence authorities and the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) over de-regulation of domestic flying over security uncertainties. Undoubtedly, those obstacles contributed to a great extent, and withheld the very important service products not being able to sell in the market.

RECOMMENDATIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Necessity to Develop Domestic Aviation The research finding reveals that necessity to develop domestic aviation can be broadly categorized into (1) customer demand (2) capture new niche market and (3) use as an alternate to road transport. This study proves that there is a growing demand for domestic aviation and approximately 90 percent are foreign and 60 percent local travellers would seek domestic air travel. Road travel in Sri Lanka proved to be painful and consumers require alternative modes of transport. They were dissatisfied with the existing road network. In terms of convenience, speed and safety; air travel is preferred over others. However, insufficient supply of domestic airline operations, number of aircraft and the types of aircraft for various roles of operations would need development.

Barriers for the Development of Domestic Aviation Even though, there is an urge for domestic air operations, the growth is curtailed by few artificial and natural barriers. This situation is further aggravated due to non availability of a national level plan for promoting the domestic aviation as an industry. Also, the severe bureaucratic administration between organisations concerned prevents a meaningful dialogue to overcome the issue. The most probable barriers are:

168 a. The overall national security of the country. b. Limited availability of aviation related infrastructure. c. Cost factor. Degree of Required Development in Domestic Aviation Having explicitly addressed the necessity for developing domestic aviation, it is imperative to understand to what extent and in what ways the development should be progressed. It requires a multi-dimensional approach as follows; a. Quantification of total output to the national economy considering direct and indirect revenues, to facilitate strategic decision making, justifying the required development to the masses. b. Streamlining of the distribution of available facilities. (1) Commencement of an air shuttle service from BIA to Colombo (2) Speedy construction of the already proposed aerodrome at Mattala Hambantota. (3) Development of airfields at China-bay and Koggala. c. Commencement of Helicopter operations for passenger transportation. Encouraging of hoteliers to build private heliports under the supervision of CAA in the outskirts of Colombo. d. Expansion of the scope of the float plane operations to facilitate additional flexibility to the operators. e. Formulation of a plan to share the facilities presently available under the supervision of SLAF. f. Implementation of a mechanism to utilize the ground support activities. Influential Factors in Selecting Domestic Aviation This study tested preferences of a tourist to select domestic air travel as a travel mode, directly and indirectly by using a model. These results are vital in formulating new strategies, introducing new products, and as a whole satisfying the consumer.

Direct Factors The most relevant factors according to foreign tourists consideration are; (1) Saving time (2) Avoid traffic jams (3) travel comfort (4) Avoid delays in attending business meetings/travel schedule and Affordable prices. On the other hand, locals’ preferences do not have much difference. According to them, the much relevant factors are; (1) Save time (2) travel comfort (3) Affordable prices (4) Avoid traffic jams and willingness to travel by air. These findings revealed the concept that domestic aviation should be based on to save time.

169 Role of the Domestic Aviation for Promoting Tourism in Sri Lanka

Dilapidated road conditions, unruly drivers and long hours of traffic jams in Sri Lanka are appeared to be negative factors for tourism and travel industry promotion. Both foreign tourists (relatively high) and locals have accepted the fact by giving preference to travel by air due to the above reasons. This fact encourages the prospect for domestic aviation. Also the results disproved that the general hypothesis that people use air travel to maintain the class and prestige. Another important factor discovered in the study is that the aircraft utilisation for passenger transport should be adequately comfortable. Moreover, tourists request wallet friendly budget airlines and such preferences are relatively high among the locals.

Derived Factors The conceptualized model to appraise the micro factors which influence the demand for domestic aviation was mathematically tested to operationalise the factors and the following model was emerged. Accordingly, the parameters defined and indicators tested were proved that they have a strong relationship to the overall demand for domestic aviation from the tourists’ perspectives.

Figure- 6.1 Operationalization of the Conceptual Model

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Source: Surveyed Data, 2010

170 According to the traveller profile, tourists in general are willing to spend less time on travel. Even though, they agree to spend extra money on air transport an exorbitant ticket prices would avert those using domestic flights. Further, tourists are particularly concerns of road travelling and their safety as a passenger. The lack of above would significantly increase the demand for domestic flights and vice versa. Moreover, in terms of accessibility tourists expect better flight bookings and reservations. Finally, the tourists expect better overall conditions of domestic flights.

Policy Implications and Marketing Strategies The development of domestic aviation requires numerous approaches. Such as: a. Controlled de-regulation of domestic aero-space policies to allow better leverage for all the operators without undermining national security b. Short-term and long-term integrated infrastructure development plan (incorporating government and non-government agencies) using emerging concepts and techniques. c. Encouragement of private sector investors to commence new airlines giving investor incentives. d. Introduction of aggressive strategies considering the marketing mix; price, place, product and promotion to penetrate the market. Different promotional approaches through customer focus segmentations in developing new products/services. e. Implementation of aggressive marketing campaigns both locally and overseas to communicate on promotional activities to tourists to educate them on domestic air travel. f. Exploring strategies to cut down airfares to make affordable to the majority by introducing exclusive offers to encourage high-end tourists. Benefits to Stakeholders If the domestic aviation can fulfil the expectations of the tourists, the tourism industry of Sri Lanka would definitely have tremendous boost in years to come. Development of domestic aviation brings multifaceted benefits to both the industries as well as their stakeholders (Tourists, government of Sri Lanka, aviation operators and the entire community). However, this circle of benefits should be carefully formulated to avoid its own demerits.

171 Role of the Domestic Aviation for Promoting Tourism in Sri Lanka

CONCLUSION Despite the tourism industry showing an increase in growth in the recent months, in terms of number of tourist arrivals, its sustainability is being threatened, unless new innovative strategies are been implemented to promote travelling. Even though, the island is small, it offers diverse activities, amenities and attractions scattered geographically in all parts. The emerging new tourist profile and their motives in seeking new experiences in travelling creates a necessity to use safe and speedy mode of transport with a better accessibility in reaching such destinations. However, today, due to poor state of the very same facts the marketability of many tourism products is highly questionable. It further aggravates due to dilapidated road network and tourists doubts on road safety and security. Moreover, the value of time is considered utmost important to both local and foreign multi-destination, package or business tourists. A well geared domestic aviation network would undoubtedly elevate the Sri Lankan tourism industry to a new spectrum. It will not only promote tourism, but also expand its wings to other fields as elaborated in this study. Therefore, every possible action should be taken to develop domestic aviation to harvest future dividends simply because what it appears today as impossible will become a reality tomorrow.

BIBLIOGRAPHY BOOKS 1. Senaratne, J.P. The Sri Lanka Air Force: a historical retrospect, Colombo: SLAF. 2. Silva, D.A.C. Sustainable Tourism Development in Sri Lanka: an appraisal of the international inbound tourism demand, the tourism industry and national tourism policy Vrije University, Amesterdam, 2002. REPORTS / DOCUMENTS / PUBLICATIONS 3. Central Bank of Sri Lanka, Annual Report (2009). Colombo: Central Bank Printing Press. 4. Mahinda Chintanaya (2009), The election manifesto of the incumbent President of Sri Lanka, His Excellency Mahinda Rajapakse. 5. Sri Lanka Tourist Board, Sri Lanka Tourism Report 2010, Colombo, SLTB. 6. Sri Lanka Tourist Board, Annual Statistical Report 2009, Colombo, SLTB. JOURNALS / MEDIA ARTICLES 7. Dheerasinghe, K.G.D.D policy options for reforming the transport sector. Economical Review, Vol. 28, Sep/Oct, 2002

172 ELECRONIC PUBLICATIONS 8. Civil Aviation Authority of Sri Lanka on 04 May 2010. 9. Lohmann, M. New Demand Factors in Tourism. Hungary, European tourism forum: Budapest. on 03 March 2010. 10. Lohmann M, New Demand Factors in Tourism, www. repository.binus.ac.id/ content/G1174/G117464796.pdf on 03 March 2010. 11. Mahoney, E. Warnell,G. Tourism Marketing Michigan State University. on 04 April 2010 12. Ministry of Tourism Sri Lanka, Sri Lanka Sustainable Tourism Development Project. Environment assessment and management framework on 04 March 2010. 13. Tourism Organisation, World Tourism Organisation Publication. on 23 March 2010. 14. World Tourism Organisation: Another Robust Year For Tourism in Asia and Pakistan. http://www.world-tourism.org/newsroom/menu.htm on 02 April 2010. 15. Breaking Travel News: Tourism boom in Sri Lanka- Go now and beat the crowds on 23 April 2010. 16. Sri Lanka Railways http://www.railway.gov.lk/future_plan.html on 18 April 2010. 17. Tourism Industry and Aviation, http://pin2spu.blogspot.com/ on 02 April 2010. 18. Times of India, on 12 May 2010. 19. ww.scribd.com › Research › Business & Economics.

173 Role of the Domestic Aviation for Promoting Tourism in Sri Lanka

APPENDIX I

DEVELOPED INDICATORS FOR THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL ON IMPACT OF DOMESTIC AVIATION FOR PROMOTING TOURISM IN SRI LANKA Parameter Indicators a. Propensity to save time b. Time spend on road traffic c. Time taken to reach destination Travel time d. Delays occurred in scheduled meeting /visits e. waiting time for boarding aircraft f. Baggage handling delays g. Airborne delays a. Willingness to travel by air b. Willing to get travel comfort c. Maintain class & prestige Desirability d. Willingness to spend extra money on air transport e. Willingness to travel by road f. Overall rating of road transport a. High price of ticket Affordability b. Affordable price a. Road condition Mobility b. convenience in travelling a. Making flight reservations/booking Accessibility b. Connecting transport before and after the flight c. Availability of flights Reliability a. Difference between actual and scheduled a. Total accidents (fatalities) non fatal accidents incidents b. Passenger safety whilst flying Safety & security c. Road discipline & safety by drivers d. Safety as a passenger in road transport e. Risk of air travelling Source: Author Tabulated, 2010

174 No No No No No No No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes N o) (Yes/ Significance 2 X 0.05 ≥3.84 level 2 0 X 0.73426 1 .2 3 8095 0.193937 2.5 1 8929 0.50 33 5 7 6. 33 9858 0. 3 2529 1 15.306769 34 .98 3 556 4 . 0 74 0.2 3 5 7 89 4 2. 4 0 74 0.06 3 9 4 2 C alculated % 74 % 25% 50% 52% 66% 82% 50% 25% 50% 2.6% 1 00% 55. 1 % 13 .2% 31 .5 7 % ( L ocal) Affected

% 0% 99% 74 % 73 % 92% 4 0% 7 8% 9 4 .9% 1 6.6% 3 5.6% 2 7 . 3 % .6% 11 66.6% 33 . 3 % Affected (foreign) OF DOMESTIC AVIATION I ndicator Willingness to save time Willingness spent on road traffic Time Waiting time for aircraft boarding Baggage handling delays to travel by air Willingness comfort Travel Maintain class and prestige Willing to money on air transport spend extra road by travel to Willingness Overall rating of transport the road High price of an air ticket ticket price Affordable tourists by rated condition Road travelling road in Convenience .edu accessed on 18 July 2010) n ime T Parameter ravel Desirability Affordability M obility T CHI SQUARE DISTRIBUTION TABLES FOR THE INDICATORS DEVELOPED IN CONCEPTUAL APPRAISAL Note: The Chi - Square tables were manually prepared by the author and statistical data analysis done using online web calculator web online using done analysis data statistical and author the by prepared manually were tables Square - Chi The Note: www.georgetow APP EN D I X II

175 Role of the Domestic Aviation for Promoting Tourism in Sri Lanka No No No No Yes Yes Yes .6 77 0 1 1 5 5.9 711 0.86 34 86 1 0.5 44144 2. 4 0 74 0.008 47 25 . 4374 6 3 5 11 0% 7 0% 4 6% 28.6% 1 00% 5 7 . 1 % 77 . 7 % 0% 77 % 74 % 5% 11 56.5% 2 3 .2% 7 6. 4 % Flight reservations/ bookings (experienced by tourists) Flight reservations/ bookings (expectation of tourists) Connecting Transport before and after the flight Overall rating of (experienced by tourist) the flight Passenger safety whilst flying and discipline road of Concern safety by the drivers Safety as a passenger on road transport Accessibility Reliability S afety S ecurity and

176 Author Hailing from an agriculturally rich pictures que area in the western part of Sri Lanka, Air Commodore Rohan completed his secondary and tertiary education at Royal College, Colombo, Sri Lanka’s largest and most prestigious boys’ school. Having excelled in almost all the sports Royal College could offer, he joined the first batch of the Sri Lanka Defense Academy. He also gained entrance to the University of Moratuwa and obtained a Bsc Engineering Degree in Electronics. Having been selected to the Sri Lanka Air Force, he pursued his studies further by obtaining a Masters Degree in Electronics and Telecommunication Engineering from the same university. Today he is qualified Chartered Engineer too. In addition to his academic qualification, he has successfully completed the Advance Air Defense Radar Course in the Royal Air Force in the United Kingdom. Later on as he went higher in the ranks, he completed the Junior Command and Staff Course in India, followed by the Staff Course in Pakistan. Leadership has been a strong quality in his personality. Taking his first steps in the role of a young leader, he was appointed as the Commanding Officer of Electronics and Communication wing at the Sri Lanka Air Force Bases at Katunayake and Ratmalana. During the height of the war against the LTTE in Sri Lanka, his most challenging role was being the Base Commander of the Ratmalana Air Base. This was one of the most vulnerable points of attack since it was the air base, which housed most of the transport aircraft. This was also the main station where troops and logistical arrangements were carried out, not forgetting the number of VIP movements that took place. Before he enrolled in to the NDC Air Commodore Rohan Pathirage was the Director Electronics and Telecommunication Engineering at the Sri Lanka Air Force. He is married and blessed with two teenage sons.

177 NEW POLARISATION: REASONS TO SEARCHING STRATEGIC ALLIANCE

Commander S M Khalid Hossain, (S), afwc, psc, BN

INTRODUCTION During most of human existence, contacts between civilizations were intermittence or nonexistent. Then with the beginning of the modern era, about 1500 AD, global politics assumed two dimensions. For over four hundred years Britain, France, Spain, Austria, Prussia, Germany, the US and others constituted a Multipolar international system within Western civilization and interacted, competed and fought wars with each other. During the Cold War global politics became bipolar and the world was divided into three parts. A group of mostly wealthy and democratic societies, led by the US, was engaged in a pervasive ideological, political, economic and military competition with a group of poorer communist societies associated with and led by the Soviet Union. Much of this conflicts occurred in the Third World outside these two camps, composed of countries which often were poor, lacked political stability, were recently independent and were claimed to be non-aligned.

In the post Cold War world, for the first time in history, global politics has become Multidimensional. The end of Cold War era generated an illusion of New World Order, which is the first coined by President Gorge W Bush (senior) i.e. a world of social and economic prosperity with new norms, values and behaviour. But in reality, the so called New World Order could not bring much hope to the ordinary people in both developed and developing world. The problems, which face the world – overpopulation, poverty, environmental degradation, resource depletion, hunger, disease etc, remain as serious as ever.

We are entering into a unique and unpredictable era, which is significantly different from the preceding one, with existing security theory seemingly unable to cope with the transformation. The world and regional alignment today is undergoing dramatic changes; small powers also polarized for mutual interests. In this reality, Bangladesh cannot be left alone; she has to find her role in the regional and international political system and search for a friend for the existence and survival.

. President Bush proclaimed the dawn of a new world order, and this phrase captured the spirit of optimism, which fired the imagination of so many people.

178 Amongst many, Bangladesh has good diplomatic, political and economic interests with China, US, Japan, KSA and Malaysia. China always plays significant role for the development of her defence and industries. On the other hand, US at all times has greater role in her internal and external security issues. Besides, Bangladesh has earned great reputation in the UN Peace Keeping Mission and gained considerable influence in the UN, SAARC and other international and regional forum. Exact exploitation of these organizations combined with right identification of trusted partners will certainly enhance amity, tranquillity, security and development of the country.

This study, firstly analyzes the concept of security, world order and alliance system. Secondly, finds out the new alignment in the world and regional power politics; determines the implication of new polarization to the region and Bangladesh. Finally, this paper identifies suitable strategic partners that will support Bangladesh maintaining her sovereignty, integrity and prestige in regional and international arena.

THE CHANGED FACES OF ALLIANCE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Security and Alliance before WW and After Alliance in Europe. The ‘Auld Alliance Treaty’ signed in 1295 between Scotland, Norway and France created oldest allies in the history. The terms of the treaty stipulated that if any country was attacked by England the other countries would invade English territory. The ‘Treaty of Westphalia’ which ended the ‘Thirty Years’ War’, the ‘Eighty Years’ War’, and officially recognized the United Provinces and Switzerland was signed on 24 October 1648. The treaty allowed forming Loose Alliance in order to protect weaker powers, to maintain balance of power and to bring back hegemonic power in to order. In

179 New Polarisation: Reasons to Searching Strategic Alliance

Illustration 1

October 1873, German Chancellor Bismarck negotiated the

League of the Three Emperors (German: Dreikaiserbund) between the monarchs of Austria–Hungary, Russia and Germany. In 1882, this alliance was expanded to include Italy in what became the Triple Alliance. For long time, until WW I the treaty ensured stability and peace in Europe. ‘Dreikaiserbund Treaty’ between Germany, Austria-Hungary and Russia in 1873 ensured Bismarck protection against a two front war from France (Illustration 2). WW Alliance. The world witnessed the massive build up of force around the globe in the name of peace and security. World War I divided world into two poles, i.e. Entente Powers and Central Powers. World War II was fought chiefly between the Allies and the Axis Powers. The Allies won, and the Axis lost, because the Allies had greater cooperation, productive resources, and were able to turn these resources into greater numbers of soldiers and weapons than the Axis Powers.

. Trevor C Salmon and Mark F Imber, Issues in International Relations: Power, (UK and US: Routledge Publications, London and New York 2008), p.65. . Sheehan Michael, National and International Security, (US: Ashgate Publication Co, New York 2000), Pp. 7-8. . However, some maintained neutrality (such as Éire, Sweden and Switzerland) but greatly benefited from the allies.

180 Illustration 2

Alliance System as a Cause of the War

Cold War Alliance: Interlock Rivalry-Ideological War. During the Cold War period, international politics were heavily shaped by the intense rivalry between two great blocs of power and the political ideologies they represented: democracy and capitalism in the case of the US and its allies, and communism in the case of the Soviet bloc.

. The Corner, Alliance System, available at: http://www.thecorner.org/hist/wwi/alliance.htm#as_causeofwar. . John C Grant, European Security after the Cold War, (UK: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd, Cheltenham, London, 1996), p.21.

181 New Polarisation: Reasons to Searching Strategic Alliance

Alliance in the New World Order. End of the Cold War era in the late 1980s, generated a sudden surge of hope. The evil empire had collapsed and as Francis Fukuyama pointed out the ideological struggle had ended in an outright victory for capitalist values. President Bush proclaimed the dawn of a New World Order, and his phrase captured the spirit of optimism, which fired the imagination of so many people. The New World Order although shifted the balance of power in West’s favour but there was hardly any change in the third world security. The problems, which face the world – overpopulation, poverty, environmental degradation, resource depletion, hunger, disease etc, remain as serious as ever. Paradigm Shift: Uni-multipolar System. Now there is only one superpower. Much debate goes on, however, as to whether today’s world is unipolar, multipolar, or something else. It is a mixture or hybrid of one superpower, and several major powers. It might be called a uni-multipolar system.

THE PRESENT ALIGNMENT OF POWER

The Age of Interdependence The defining characteristic of modern world is interdependence. It is the age of the inter-connected in security, communication, culture and trade. The great challenge today is to articulate a common global policy based on common global values. With globalization, international security is becoming increasingly indivisible. In absence of effective common global security architecture nation states today make or remake alliance in quest of peace, security and protection. Besides not much active UN, nations make regional, political, security or economic organizations.

The Rise of Regional Powers: New Regionalism Emerging Regional Actors. Since 1945, especially since the 1990s, regionalism and regional cooperation have been growing features of world politics. In the decades after World War II, the cold war and decolonization resulted in the establishment of multilateral regional organizations across the world, including the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the predecessors of what is today the European Union (EU), the Organization of American States (OAS), the Organization of African Unity (OAU, the predecessor of the African Union, AU), the Arab League and the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). Presently both India and China have been pursuing trans- regional, super-regional, sub-regional, inter-regional and bilateral cooperative arrangements with enthusiasm.

182 Asia-Pacific Region-the Centre of Gravity of the Emerging World Order. Asia Pacific region is a region that stands on the brink of becoming a major economic and military power. In the coming decades, Asian nations will be the harbingers of change in the global order. However, from the feeling of insecurity, mistrust and intra state rivalry Asia Pacific countries resorted to strengthen their defence - resulting arms race in the region. The increased defense budgets of most of the Asian countries give us enough reason to rethinking the security aspects of Bangladesh.

Polarization in the Region: Emergent Regional Actors US Factor. The US remains the paramount growing military power in Asia, despite the increasing armed might of China and major Asian states. US alliance system in Asia is being extended beyond collective defence to provide peacekeeping to humanitarian operations, plus an ability to exert collective diplomatic pressure. However, it is argued that US has not displayed proactive interest in strengthening political relations with Asian countries (except India and Pakistan). It is a reality that US is now more interested to India, China and Middle East than her old alliance in Europe and ASEAN. In contest, ties between China, India and other selected Asian countries i.e. Australia, Japan, Philippine, Singapore and Thailand are expanding and deepening in areas related to politics, economy, and security . The diagram denoting USA main military security alliance with Asian countries is shown as Annex A.

. Comment of Dr Jashim Uddin, Director International Relations, BIISS, during an interview on 04th August 2010 at his BIISS office. . Former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice prioritized her visit to Middle East; she did not attend the 14th ASEAN ARF held on August 2007, sending Deputy Secretary of State. SEA countries interpreted this US stance as an example of its underemphasizing of the region, and the July 27 issue of the Straits Times, for example, interpreted the lack of US presence in SEA as playing into the hands of China. . Shinichi Ogawa, EASR 2008 Editor in Chief, ‘Southeast Asia-Expanding Cooperative Ties with External Power’, (Japan: East Asian Strategic Review, the National Institution for Defence Studies Japan, the Japan Times Ltd, 2008,) p. 115

183 New Polarisation: Reasons to Searching Strategic Alliance

Pie Chart 3

Comparison of US Military Expenditure

Comparison of US Military Expenditure10 Impact of a Rising China. Until 1990s China built its policy in the region on mistrust and suspicion, seeing most Asian states largely as agents of US foreign policy, and US policy largely as designed to prevent China’s rise. Today Chinese policy makers see considerable potential for the progression of Chinese objectives in the region, and Chinese economic and security interests are perceived as being best served by engagement and cooperation11. Historical China’s appeal to harmony, peace and virtue is seen as providing a cultural alternative to western materialism and individualism12. In this reality China is

10. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Yearbook 2010 (US figure from Centre for Arms Control and Non-proliferation May 2010). Available at http://www.globalissues.org/article/75/world- military-spending. 11. Breslin Shaun, Understanding China’s Regional Rise: Interpretation, Identities and Implications, published in International Affairs, Volume 85, No 4, July 2009, (London: Chatham House Publications, UK, 2008), p.818 12. David Kang, China Rising: Peace, Power and Order in East Asia, (New York: California University Press, US, 2007).

184 slowly but surely becoming alternative choice in the region. China will continue to make domestic security (economic development and political stability) its priority. In foreign affairs, China will do its best to cooperate with the US, the EU, Russia and Japan13. Barograph 4

The Future Leaders in World Economics

13. Comments of Moinul Islam, BSS (Hons), MSS (Econs), MA (FAT) Monash, Director General, SEA/EA- P, Bangladesh Civil Service (Foreign Affairs), Government of Bangladesh during an interview at Ministry of Foreign Affairs on 14 October, 2010. 14. Shahid Javed Burki: Asia in the ‘Catch-Up’ Game, published in ISAS Working Paper, No. 106, 09 April 2010, (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore), p. 13

185 New Polarisation: Reasons to Searching Strategic Alliance

Indian Rise or Regional Hegemony. Moving itself from an era of “non- aligned” to “poly-alignment” India has emerged as a regional military power15. India’s interests have changed over the past two decades from a position of nonalignment to one of having specific strategic interests that lead it to a path of ‘poly-alignment’. India develops ‘strategic partnerships’ with countries perceived as leaders of a global, multipolar order, seeks modern military capabilities from many of those countries and expands its influence in the Indian Ocean and beyond16. Since 2000, India has increased the number of countries with which it has defence-specific agreements. At the same time, it continues to modernize its army to deal with potential threats from its immediate neighbors and internal insurgency groups, and to fulfill its goal of being a global leader in UN peacekeeping.

Asia Centric Global Leadership: the BRIC International politics and security now focused on BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries, which are destined to create a multipolar world. The analyst viewed that by 2050 BRIC will emerge as the most powerful alliance in the world in terms of economy, politics, (perhaps in the area of security) and will challenge US hegemony17. Table 5 A Comparison of BRIC with EU, US and UK19 Share of Share of Share of Share of Average world world world world share (%) Countries Nominal Military Population Landmass

GDP (%) spending (%) (%) (%) Brazil 3.3 1.7 2.8 5.6 3.4 China 9.3 6.6 19.5 6.2 10.4 European Union 26 18 7.2 2.9 13.5 India 2.3 2.4 17.3 1.9 6 Russia 2.4 3.5 2.1 10.9 4.7 United States 23.6 43 4.5 6.1 19.3 Together 66.9 75.2 53.4 33.6 57.3

15. Sagar Rahul, State of Mind: What Kind of Power will India become? Published in International Affairs, Vol. 85, No. 4, July 2009, (London: Chatham House Publications, UK, 2009), p. 801 16. Comments of Lieutenant-General Dr Mohd Aminul Karim, (retd), Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the Asia-Europe Institute, University of Malaya, Malaysia, and Visiting Scholar at the Mershon Centre for International Security Studies, Ohio State University, United States during an interview at his residence on 14 October, 2010. 17. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made a whirlwind visit to the summit to announce that ‘the age of empires has ended’. 18. Available at: http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/russia-s-fall-as-a-superpower-1.491662.

186 New Polarization: Options and Possibilities US-China and India: A Delicate Balance. Perhaps the combined power of US, China and India could make the most powerful alliance in the world. Having understood the future potential of China and India, US is now focusing to engage these two future economic giants. For India, outright confrontation with China would be expensive and pointless as long as China can be convinced to cooperate on key Indian interests such as border dispute resolutions, nuclear and missile proliferation with Pakistan, and Islamic terrorism. Both China and India having more focused on BRIC, may not involve much with US. Pakistan-China. The relationship has been described by Hu Jintao as ‘higher than the mountains and deeper than oceans’. Favourable relations with China have been a pillar of Pakistan’s foreign policy. China strongly supported Pakistan’s opposition to Soviet Union involvement in Afghanistan and was perceived by Pakistan as a regional counterweight to India. India-Russia. India has been described sometimes as client state, a strategic partner or an alliance of the Russia. India’s strategic security depended on countervailing China and Pakistan, since each had staked a claim to what India believed was its own sovereign territory19. The Russia had its own ideological and military conflicts with China, therefore for Russia India will remain an important strategic ally. Russia, China, India: A New Strategic Triangle for a New Cold War? The idea was first coined by the then Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, which was later referred to as ’Primakov’s Triangle’ in Russian journalism. It was conceived in Moscow that the strengthening of ties with China, India and Iran would lead to the formation of a new balance of power in Asia that could be advantageous to Russia. Perhaps this triangle will become more influential once BRIC is successful.

IMPLICATION OF NEW POLARISATION TO BANGLADESH

Bangladesh and Third World Countries Security Dilemma The New World Order that is supposed to be free from threat of terror, stronger in pursuit of justice, and more secure in the quest for peace. But as rightly pointed out by Mahtir Mohammad, there is no New World Order, only the world where might is right and the devils takes the hindmost. International

19. Malik Hafez, the Roles of the United States, Russia and China in the New World Order, (US: St Martin’s Press Inc, US, 1997), p. 105

187 New Polarisation: Reasons to Searching Strategic Alliance

organisations are unable to protect the interests of small powers20. In addition to traditional military and non military threats small powers like Bangladesh needed to be prepared to deal with the emerging threats from the effects of globalization, insufficiency of resources, economic disparity, influence of non-state actors to countries own affairs, coupled with environmental degradation, new emerging diseases i.e. SARS virus, Bird Flu, Anthrax and many more. Developed countries are smart to understand the issues but small powers still remain vulnerable and exposed to those new emerging threats.

Bound to Survive: Imperative for Strategic Alliance In the ‘age of interdependence’ developing and developed countries now increasingly depending on their strategic alliances. In the context of global and regional security alliance Bangladesh simply does not have the economic, political and military strength to act alone; it is therefore imperative for her to look for strategic allies to ensure her safety, security, survival and future development. Among many China, US, India are going to be the key actors to influence the world politics and security affairs21. Therefore Bangladesh needs to be involved with all of these three either strategically, economically, politically or diplomatically.

Challenges Threatening the Strategic Relations No countries want a friend who is economically frail, politically unimportant and militarily ineffective. To remain important in the international arena, external credibility is essential. Bangladesh’s image in the international politics so far is not very encouraging. Democracy, rule of law and good governance of the country is a far cry. Bangladesh’s relations with key global players were asymmetric, both in terms of state and non-state actors because of missing direction and lack of consensus among political parties22. There are allegations of human right violation and rise of extremism. Strength of Bangladesh Bangladesh is a small country but ‘big nation’. As a hub between China and India, Bangladesh offers great potential for future trade to China and India through

20. Dr Mahathir Mohammad, speech given at Diners Club, Malaysian armed Forces Staff College Course, 11 May, 2004. 21. Comments of Dr Delwar Hossain, Ph D (Japan), MA (Japan), MSS (DU), Professor and Chair, Department of International Relations, Faculty of Social Science, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh during an interview on 09 August 2010 at his University Office. 22. Comments of Professor Syed Anwar Husain, Department of History, University of Dhaka during Independence Day Commemorative Seminar on Bangladesh Foreign Policy: Continuity and Change organized by BIISS, Dhaka on 05 April, 2009 on the occasion of commemorating the 38th Independence Day of Bangladesh.

188 access into the Bay of Bengal23. American’s India imperative, makes Bangladesh as a neighbour, an important factor in the regional politics. Bangladesh is also a bridge between the eastern and western part of India, therefore a stable relationship between India and Bangladesh is a factor in the harmonious coexistence of these two physically distant parts of India. In SA, the rise of India or the influence of China can be negotiated effectively through Bangladesh. Bangladesh’s geostrategic location could be an important factor for booming Chinese economy. China could be benefited from deep sea port of Bangladesh, for the restarting its age old ‘silk route’24 through Bangladesh to China. Illustration 6 The Silk Road extending from Southern Europe through the Arabian Peninsula, Somalia, Egypt, Iran, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Java-Indonesia and Vietnam until it reaches China. Land routes are red, water routes are blue

Bangladesh stood firm against radicalism and showed her commitment in war against terrorism. Bangladesh is a country which has good relations with Arab and diplomatic acceptance to Arab (including Palestine, Turkey, Iraq, Iran with 23. Comments of Dr Delwar Hossain, Ph D (Japan), MA (Japan), MSS (DU), Professor and Chair, Department of International Relations, Faculty of Social Science, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh during an interview on 09 August 2010 at his University Office. 24. Vadime Eliseeff, the Silk Roads: Highways of Culture and Commerce, (Paris 1998, UNESCO, Reprint, Berghahn Books 2009), Pp. 1-2

189 New Polarisation: Reasons to Searching Strategic Alliance

whom many countries do not have good relations), Western and Third World. Most importantly its successful role in UN Mission has credited its security and diplomatic capabilities both in UN and African nations. In this reality Bangladesh could be an important factor for Big Powers to mend its relation with Arabs or Muslim World, China (capitalizing its traditional relationship and future strategic relations with China) and even with Africa.

CHOOSING THE RIGHT STRATEGIC PARTNER: OPTION FOR BANGLADESH

Sino-Bangladesh: A New Equation in the Diplomacy The evolution of Bangladesh-China relations over time and seeks to demonstrate that it symbolizes an emerging equation in Asia’s diplomatic calculations. Sino-Bangla amity is not designed as a traditional ‘balance of power’ counterpoise to India, unlike the Sino-Pak strategic relationship. Rather, in this case Bangladesh can be seen as a conduit or bridge connecting China with the other rising power in Asia, India. Bangladesh can think of establishment of a ‘quadrilateral’ grouping, comprising Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar (BCIM). This ‘quadrilateralism’ could have a very positive impact in the reduction of tensions in the region. Paradigmatically, it reflects a new type of grouping being created in a rising Asia to enhance interstate collaboration. Bangladesh could also play an important role to secure an understanding between China, India and Bangladesh on the Brahmaputra25. The Sino-Bangla relations could, therefore, be a new equation in the diplomatic calculations in Asia. In the post cold world, culture is a both divisive (Ukraine, Nigeria, Sudan, India, Sri Lanka) and unified force (Germans, China, Korea)26. If Huntington is correct, Islam and China embody great cultural traditions very different and infinitely superior than that of west (Huntington’s emergent alignment of civilization is shown at Annex B).

US-Bangladesh: Partnership for Progress Bangladesh is a multi-ethnic and multi-religious country. Islam has been embedded with local customs and traditions. Many customs observed by Muslims in the country seem strange to Arab Muslims. It is a country where

25. Comments of Moinul Islam, BSS (Hons), MSS (Econs), MA (FAT) Monash, Director General, SEA/EA- P, Bangladesh Civil Service (Foreign Affairs), Government of Bangladesh during an interview at Ministry of Foreign Affairs on 14 October 2010. 26. Samuel P Huntington, the Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, (USA: Simon & Schuster, NY, 1996), p. 185

190 all the religion coexists happily without any fear. Over the years Bangladesh showed achievement in annihilating extremists. The government of Bangladesh has shown real concern to eliminate fundamentalists. In this respect, the US and Bangladesh have a common interest to curb and gradually eliminate Islamic extremism in Bangladesh. This commonality has acquired a new dynamics between the US and Bangladesh27. There were various statements made by the top leaders of both countries to demonstrate a common concern and attitude towards threat to security from non-state actors. With all these credentials, Bangladesh should pursue US to engage and support her for progress and development.

Bangladesh’s Consideration with India Indians rise in the world has elevated the situation of South Asia and as immediate neighbour; Bangladesh would also be focused with the events related to India. India is militarily and economically more powerful than any combination of its immediate neighbours except for China. The changing security architecture of South Asia, especially due to the rising Chinese profile in the subcontinent, has become a major concern for Delhi for which India would be needing constant support from its neighbour especially Bangladesh28. Both Bangladesh and India have had their relations shaped by history, culture, geography, economics and, above all, geopolitics. It is a reality that Bangladesh and India needs to have excellent relationship for their peaceful coexistence; therefore Bangladesh should accept Indian supremacy in the region and support India for the good cause. Both nations need to undergo a change in mindset, particularly at the political level. There is a need for greater understanding, dialogue, diplomacy, regional cooperation and less interference in each other’s internal affairs29.

Preserving the Multilateralism Connectivity is the order of the present diplomacy. It is likely that there will be future regional security problems requiring effective response from groups

27. US Congressman Curt Weldon commented during his visit to Bangladesh on 22 April 2010 commented that, “this is an exciting country with exciting people; we are overwhelmed with the emotion of the people of Bangladesh”. “Bangladesh is also important to the US because it is probably the only country in the world that has democracy with a Muslim majority population,” he noted. “Bangladesh is now a booming economy and we are here to help you to boost it further and also want to work with you to develop your private sector,” he said. 28. Comments of Professor Muhammad Shahiduzzaman, MA (California), Professor of International Security and Foreign Policy, Department of International Relations, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh during an interview at DU Cafeteria on 10 August, 2010. 29. Lieutenant-General Dr Mohd Aminul Karim, (retd), Bangladesh-India Relations: Some Recent Trends, published in ISAS Working Paper, No. 96, 12 November 2009, (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore), p. 1

191 New Polarisation: Reasons to Searching Strategic Alliance

of Asian states; it is therefore necessary for Bangladesh to maintain flexible coalition with other states. It is also imperative for Bangladesh to stay focused and connected with SAARC, BIMST-EC, D 7, SAGQ and other regional and international organization for the benefit of economy, trade and security.

Road Ahead: Towards A Credible Bangladesh To have the credibility and to remain important in the international arena, Bangladesh needs to accomplish the following objectives: a. Continue War against Terrorism. Bangladesh cannot afford to be labeled as the progenitor of conflict on religious or other extremist lines under globalization process that purports to cement the ties of interdependence by negating the myth of ‘the Clashes of Civilization’. Anti terrorism campaign should be undertaken at national and international level by professional security forces, backed by strong political will and supported by government mechanism. b. Fight Poverty and Corruption. In the Transparency International published Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) Bangladesh is among the most corrupt nations. Enough has been said by the scholars and policy makers, now it is time to implement, if required littlie hush way taking example from Singapore and Malaysia. c. Economic Emancipation. Obstacles to growth includes frequent cyclones and floods, inefficient state-owned enterprises, mismanaged port facilities, a growth in the labour force that has outpaced jobs, inefficient use of energy resources (such as natural gas), insufficient power supplies, slow implementation of economic reforms, political infighting and corruption. “Among Bangladesh’s most significant obstacles to growth are poor governance and weak public institutions.” d. Political Stability. No nation can prosper without strong political will. The political leadership must develop the culture of tolerance, mutual understanding and respect. Political leaders must establish and maintain a favourable political environment where development is ensured through democracy. e. Combat Viable Credible Deterrence Capability. Bangladesh must strive for a balance between the Armed Forces, command and control structure and logical training and material procurement policies30. In outline, the strategy should aim at a credible deterrence and, should deterrence fail, the aim should be to make aggression costly for the intruder and delay the pace of advance of a strong adversary, allowing time to mobilize international support. 30. Brig Darshan Khullar, Security, Peace and Honour, Manas Publications, New Delhi, India, 2000, Pp. 77 – 85

192 f. Good Governance and Establishment of Rule of Law. Governments of the small powers often failed to ensure; democracy, economic openness, development and security, transparency31, in their regime. To ensure the implementations of government policies and objectives good governance and rule of law must be ensured. CONCLUSION Polarization is not new in the international politics and security system. Pages of history revealed that various alliances and treaties like ‘Auld Alliance Treaty, Treaty of Munster, Treaty of Westphalia, Duel Alliance, Triple Alliance’ etc were made to protect weaker states and to deter attack or any kind of aggression. WW I and WW II divided the world in two poles. Again, during the Cold War period, international politics were heavily shaped by the intense rivalry between two great blocs. Now there is only one superpower (or hyper power); much debate goes on as to whether today’s world is unipolar, multipolar, bipolar or something else. Contemporary international politics does not fit either of these models. Instead it is a mixture or hybrid of one superpower and several major powers; it might be called a uni-multipolar system. The defining characteristic of modern world is interdependence. It is the age of the inter-connected in security, communication, culture and trade. Countries all over the world are increasingly involving into multinational, regional or bilateral organization. Besides UN system, nation states resorted to security, political, economic or diplomatic alliance notable amongst are NATO, EU, ASEAN and SAARC. Asia Pacific region stands on the brink of becoming a major economic and military power. In the coming decades, Asian nations will be the harbingers of change in the global order. Asia Pacific Region countries, which traditionally suffer from intrastate rivalry, mistrust and misunderstanding, are now responding their threats with a mix of bilateral and multilateral approaches encompassing both US and China. This could be a model for Bangladesh in searching for suitable strategic alliance or alliances. The new world order is radically different than the perceived one - international organisations like UN, WTO, ICRC are unable to protect the interests of small powers like Bangladesh. In the context of present global and regional security alliance Bangladesh simply does not have the economic, political and military strength to act alone; it is therefore imperative for her to look for strategic allies

31. Simon S C Tay and Jesus P Estanislao, The relevance of ASEAN crisis and Change, from the book Reinventing ASEAN, (Singapore: Institute of South East Asian Studies, Pasir Panjang, Singapore, 2001), p. 5

193 New Polarisation: Reasons to Searching Strategic Alliance

to ensure her safety, security, survivability and future development. Among many China, US, India are going to be the key actors to influence the world politics. Therefore Bangladesh needs to be involved with all of these three either strategically, economically, politically or culturally. The Sino-Bangla relationship could be a new model of strategic ties in the sense that it is designed to be a conduit, or a bridge connecting China to India. At the same time Bangladesh should try to become a strategic partner of US by showing her initiative in curbing radical groups, promoting secularism and supporting war on terrorism. Having strategic ties with China will give leverage to US in the sense that Bangladesh could be a factor to foster good relationship with China. On the other hand, Bangladesh should keep on engaging India for the benefit of both. Before that both nations need to undergo a change in mindset, particularly at the political level. The Selection Matrix is given as Annex C. The question now remains whether Bangladesh would get enough importance from the possible alliance. Bangladesh has already earned good reputation in UN and other regional, international organization. The government of Bangladesh has shown real concern to eliminate fundamentalists and over the years the country showed achievement in annihilating extremists. Economically, politically and diplomatically she is slowly but surely making progress. Yet many things need to be done to reach desired standard. In this reality, politicians, diplomats, bureaucrats and military personnel have important roles to play.

194 ANNEX A

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195 New Polarisation: Reasons to Searching Strategic Alliance ,VODP F 6LQL /HVV&RQIOLFWXDO 2UWKRGR[ +LQGX DQ S -D :HVW 0RUH&RQIOLFWXDO Q $IULFD /DWLQ $PHULFD ANNEX B CIVILIZATIONS ALIGNMENTS OF EMERGING HUNTINGTON’S 1996). NY, Schuster, & Simon (USA: Order, World of Remaking the and Civilizations of Clash the Huntington, P Samuel Source:

196 Remarks Culturally Bangladesh is more close to India. India. to close more is Bangladesh Culturally Bangladesh Armed Forces is highly dependent on China for technical support. material and with potentials has trade good Bangladesh and Russia. China However, India, USA, Bangladesh need to dependence on avoid favour. own India in and too payment of should try balance much to maintain USA will remain the key actor world and regional security affairs. in the always not India with relation Diplomatic consistent. As BRIC countries China, India, Russia will dominate world economy. Huntington suggests that Islam and Sini will have less conflict. 6 8 5 8 6 7 5 5 2 52 Japan 7 5 7 8 5 5 3 5 2 47 Russia 7 9 9 9 7 8 4 5 3 61 USA 5 7 5 6 6 5 7 6 3 50 India 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 10 67 China 8 8 7 6 4 10 10 10 10 72 Weight Criteria Selection Military Cooperation Economic Potential Security Potential Diplomatic Political Humanitarian Support Cultural Historical Religion Value Total ANNEX C SELECTION MATRIX

197 New Polarisation: Reasons to Searching Strategic Alliance

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199 New Polarisation: Reasons to Searching Strategic Alliance

33. “Unipolar and Weak State: the Case of Bangladesh”, an article written in the BIIS Papers by Air Commodore Mahmud Hussain, ndc, psc, Biiss, Dhaka February 2009. Website 34. http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/opi, Joseph S. Nye, Harvard University Distinguished Service Professor “Will US-Japan Alliance Survive” The Korea Times, July 14, 2009. 35. “Power and Politics”, available at: www.sociology.org.uk, 36. RSIS Commentaries, available at: www.rsis.edu.sg. 37. Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore, 469A Bukit Timah Road no. 07-01, Tower Block, Singapore 259770. Available at: www.isas.nus.edu.sg. 38. http://www.cop.com/info/abs-essa.html. Michelle Maiese and Tova Norlen. 39. NATO Official Homepage, available at http://www.nato.int. 40. “A New World Order-Again?” Available at: http://www.globalsecurity.org. com. 41. Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, available at: http:// www.osceprag.cz. 42. Caspar Weinberger, “The Dangers of Victory Disease”, available at: http:// www.findarticle.com. 43. ‘Auld Alliance’ available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auld_Alliance. Interview 44. Rear Admiral Md Khurshed Alam, (C), ndc, psc, BN (retd), Additional Secretary (Research, ICT & UNCLOS), Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He was interviewed on 22 June, 2010. 45. Dr Jashim Uddin, Director BIISS, Dhaka interviewed on 04 August 2010. 46. Dr Delwar Hossain, Professor and Chair, Department of International Relations, Faculty of Social Science, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000. He was interviewed on 09 August, 2010. 47. Lieutenant-General Dr Mohd Aminul Karim, (retd), Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the Asia-Europe Institute, University of Malaya, Malaysia, and Visiting Scholar at the Mershon Centre for International Security Studies, Ohio State University, United States. Gen was interviewed at his residence on 14 October, 2010. 48. Professor Muhammad Shahiduzzaman, Department of International

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Author Commander S M Khalid Hossain, (S), afwc, psc, BN joined Bangladesh Navy in 1985, was commissioned in 1987. He did his basic training from Bangladesh Naval Academy. He has done his Initial Staff Course from Royal Naval Staff College, Greenwich, UK and Long Logistics Management Course from Bombay, India. He did his first Staff Course in 2002-2003 from Mirpur and second Staff Course from Malaysian Armed Forces Staff College. He did UN Training Assistance Team Course (UNTAT) under UN in Sri Lanka. He obtained his Post Graduate from University of Malay with distinction. Cdr Khalid also completed his AFWC in 2010. He served as Supply Officer at various ships and establishment of Bangladesh Navy. He was Deputy Director Naval Stores, Staff Officer Naval Appointment, Staff Officer Naval Stores, Staff Officer Personal Services and Staff Officer to COMCHIT, COMBAN, COMKHUL, CSD and Admin Dhaka. He was DS in DSCSC, Mirpur and DS in JSC, BNA. He did his UN Mission as MILOB in Ivory Coast where he was appointed as Team Leader MILOB Cell. Cdr Khalid visited Australia, Indonesia, India, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Maldives, Sri Lanka, UK, UAE, Ivory Coast, Mali, Burkina Faso and Ghana for course and official duty. He is happily married to Nilufar Khalid and they have two sons.

201