THE EFFECT OF AUTOMATED SPEED CAMERAS ON FATAL TRAFFIC COLLISIONS IN THE STATE OF KUWAIT A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Affairs in Partial Fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Masters of Applied Science by Amal Abdulsalam Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Carleton University Ottawa-Carleton Institute of Civil and Environmental Engineering May 2012 ©2012 Amal Abdulsalam Library and Archives Bibliotheque et Canada Archives Canada Published Heritage Direction du Branch Patrimoine de I'edition 395 Wellington Street 395, rue Wellington Ottawa ON K1A0N4 Ottawa ON K1A 0N4 Canada Canada Your file Votre reference ISBN: 978-0-494-91586-8 Our file Notre reference ISBN: 978-0-494-91586-8 NOTICE: AVIS: The author has granted a non­ L'auteur a accorde une licence non exclusive exclusive license allowing Library and permettant a la Bibliotheque et Archives Archives Canada to reproduce, Canada de reproduire, publier, archiver, publish, archive, preserve, conserve, sauvegarder, conserver, transmettre au public communicate to the public by par telecommunication ou par I'lnternet, preter, telecommunication or on the Internet, distribuer et vendre des theses partout dans le loan, distrbute and sell theses monde, a des fins commerciales ou autres, sur worldwide, for commercial or non­ support microforme, papier, electronique et/ou commercial purposes, in microform, autres formats. paper, electronic and/or any other formats. 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Canada Abstract Improvements to highway safety are a high priority for highway authorities due to the social and economic costs of traffic collisions. Therefore, the main objective of this thesis was to examine the effect of automated speed cameras (ASCs) as measured in fatal traffic collision frequencies using data from Kuwait. This thesis also established traffic safety benchmarks for Kuwait to improve the practice of analyzing safety trends and identifying locations with high fatal collisions. A database of fatal collisions was created, and qualitative spatial analysis was performed using GIS software. Collision prediction models were developed and the results of the statistical analysis showed that there is a statistically significant relationship between fatal traffic collisions and ASCs in one of three influence ranges studied. The model showed an increase in fatal collision frequency with the presence of ASC, which might suggest among other possible explanations, that the ASCs in Kuwait have been correctly installed at locations with high collision frequencies. ii Acknowledgements I would like to thank my supervisors, Professors Yasser Hassan and A.O. Abd El Halim, for their support, advice and guidance. Special thanks to the General Traffic Department, at the Ministry of Interior in Kuwait, for their valuable cooperation and for allowing me access to their data. iii Table of Contents Abstract ii Acknowledgements iii Table of Contents iv List of Tables vii List of Illustrations ix List of Symbols xi List of Appendices xiii 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Objective 5 1.3 Methodology 5 1.4 Scope of Work 6 1.5 Thesis Organization and Writing Style 6 1.6 Thesis Challenges and Contributions 7 2. Review o f Literature 8 2.1 Fatal Traffic Collisions 8 2.2 Speed and Road Safety 11 2.3 Automated Traffic Enforcement and Road Safety 15 iv 2.4 Spatial Analysis of Collisions 21 2.4.1 Use of GIS Systems for Collision Reporting 22 2.4.2 Black spots 25 2.5 Modeling of Safety Performance 29 3. Kuwait Demographics and Road Characteristics 32 3.1 Demographics and Population Trends 32 3.2 Road Characteristics 35 3.3 Licensed Vehicles and Drivers 37 3.4 Automated Traffic Enforcement in Kuwait 39 3.5 Legislations and Sanctions 43 4. Methodology and Data Preparation 45 4.1 Data Collection and Processing 45 4.2 Traffic Volumes 46 4.3 Statistical Analysis Techniques 49 5. Descriptive Analysis of Violation and Collision Statistics 55 5.1 Analysis of Violation Statistics 55 5.2 Analysis of Fatal Traffic Collision Statistics 58 5.3 Analysis of Fatal Traffic Collision Reports 61 5.4 Analysis and Trends of Fatal Collision Reports 63 6. Spatial and Statistical Analysis 76 6.1 Spatial Analysis Using GIS 76 v 6.2 Statistical Analysis 90 6.2.1 Statistical Models for the 500 m Radius Influence Area 96 6.2.2 Statistical Models for the 1000 m Radius Influence Area 98 6.2.3 Statistical Models for the 2000 m Radius Influence Area 100 7. Conclusions and Recommendations 105 7.1 Conclusions 105 7.2 Recommendations 108 References 110 vi List of Tables Table 2.1 - Leading Causes of Death Worldwide, Years 2004 and Predicted 2030 10 Table 2.2 - Leading Causes of Death by Age, World Data, 2004 11 Table 2.3 - Spot Speeds Results 20 Table 2.4 - Overview of Definitions of Black Spots in Selected European Countries 28 Table 3.1 - Kuwait's Traffic Laws (Article 33 of Law 52 of 2001) 44 Table 4.1 - Daily Expansion Factors for Kuwait 48 Table 4.2 - Monthly Expansion Factors for Kuwait 49 Table 5.1 - Data Recorded on Fatal Collision Reports 62 Table 5.2 - Classification of the People Killed 64 Table 5.3 - Gender of the People Killed 65 Table 5.4 - Type of Fatal Traffic Collisions 65 Table 5.5 - Number of Vehicles Involved 66 Table 5.6 - Number of Fatalities in Case 66 Table 5.7 - Number of Vehicles Involved in Case 67 Table 5.8 - Natural Lighting Condition 68 Table 5.9 - Age Range and Genders of People Killed 68 Table 5.10 - Age Range and Classification of Person Killed 69 Table 5.11 - Vehicle Type and Classification of Person Killed 70 Table 5.12 - Vehicle Type and Type of Fatal Collision 71 Table 5.13 - Time of Day and Day of Week 72 Table 5.14 - Nationality of People Killed 72 Table 5.15 - Month of the Year where Fatal Collision Occurred 74 Table 6.1 - Number of Fatal Traffic Collisions within and outside Governorates 77 vii Table 6.2 - High Fatal Traffic Collision Frequency Zones (500 m Radius Influence Area) 84 Table 6.3 - High Fatal Traffic Collision Frequency Zones (1000 m Radius Influence Area) 86 Table 6.4 - High Fatal Traffic Collision Frequency Zones (2000 m Radius Influence Area) 88 Table 6.5 - Variable Definitions 91 Table 6.6 - Variable Parameters for 500 m Radius Influence Area 92 Table 6.7 - Variable Parameters for 1000 m Radius Influence Area 92 Table 6.8 - Variable Parameters for 2000 m Radius Influence Area 93 Table 6.9 - Phase 1 of the Collision Prediction Models Developed 94 Table 6.10 - Phase 2 of the Collision Prediction Models Developed 95 Table 6.11 - Phase 1 - Significant Traffic Exposure Variables (500 m Radius Influence Area).. 97 Table 6.12 - Phase 2 - Significant Dummy Variables (500 m Radius Influence Area) 98 Table 6.13 - Phase 1 - Significant Traffic Exposure Variables (1000 m Radius Influence Area) 99 Table 6.14 - Phase 2 - Significant Dummy Variables (1000 m Radius Influence Area) 100 Table 6.15 - Phase 1 - Significant Traffic Exposure Variables (2000 m Radius Influence Area) Closest ASC 101 Table 6.16 - Phase 2 - Significant Dummy Variables (2000 m Radius Influence Area) Closest ASC 102 Table 6.17 - Phase 1 - Significant Traffic Exposure Variables (2000 m Radius Influence Area) Double Counting 103 Table 6.18 - Phase 2 - Significant Dummy Variables (2000 m Radius Influence Area) Double Count 103 viii List of Illustrations Figure 1.1 - Traffic Fatality Rates (per 100,000 inhabitants) 3 Figure 2.1- Population, Road Traffic Deaths, and Registered Vehicles, by Income Group 9 Figure 2.2 - Speed Change According to Distance from ASE Station - Korea 19 Figure 3.1 - Population of Kuwait 32 Figure 3.2 - Kuwait's Governorates 34 Figure 3.3 - Population Breakdown Within the Six Governorates of Kuwait (2007) 34 Figure 3.4 - Licensed Drivers and Registered Vehicles 38 Figure 3.5 - Percentage Increase of Traffic Indicators during 2000-2008 in Kuwait 39 Figure 3.6 - Number of Licensed Drivers vs. Speeding Violations in Kuwait 40 Figure 3.7 - Number of Traffic Enforcement Cameras in Kuwait 41 Figure 3.8 - Locations of Speed Cameras in Kuwait 42 Figure 4.1- Automated Traffic Count Locations 47 Figure 5.1 - Annual Traffic Violations vs. Licensed Drivers 56 Figure 5.2 - Top Five Violation Categories 57 Figure 5.3 - Speeding Violations 58 Figure 5.4 - Total Annual Traffic Collisions 59 Figure 5.5 - Traffic Collisions with Injuries by Severity 60 Figure 5.6 - Fatal Traffic Collision Rates 61 Figure 6.1 - Fatal Traffic Collisions in Kuwait 78 Figure 6.2 - Types of Fatal Traffic Collisions 80 Figure 6.3 - 500 m Radius Influence Area - 3+ Fatal Collision Zones 83 Figure 6.4 - 1000 m Radius Influence Area - 3+ Fatal Collision Zones 85 Figure 6.5 - 2000 m Radius Influence Area - 5+ Fatal Collision Zones 87 ix Figure 6.6 - Frequency