Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.9, 2011

The Impact of New Toll Road Operation to the Number of Intercity Train Passenger

Case study in Toll Road and Jakarta–Cirebon Intercity Train Route,

A. Caroline SUTANDI Rizky I. I. B. PAMBUDI Senior Lecturer Department of Civil Engineering Department of Civil Engineering Parahyangan Catholic University Parahyangan Catholic University Ciumbuleuit 94 40141 Ciumbuleuit 94 Bandung 40141 Indonesia. Indonesia. Fax: +62 22 233692 Fax: +62 22 233692 Email: [email protected]

Abstract: Train is a public transportation mode that usually used for intercity travel between large cities in developing countries. Nevertheless, because of specific conditions regarding train operation in developing country, the transportation mode has to compete with other modes of transportation, for example bus, travels on toll road. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of toll road operation to the decrease of number of intercity train passengers. Furthermore, to determine factors that influences the train passengers to be bus passengers. Case study is carried out at Jakarta–Cirebon train route and new operation of Jakarta–Cirebon toll road in Indonesia. Stated preference method is used to estimate probability of train passengers that change to be bus passengers. The result shows that 14.09 percent train passenger change to be bus passenger. Furthermore, factors that influence the change are ticket price, travel time, headway, and ticket service performance of Jakarta– Cirebon train route.

Key words: New Operation of Toll Road, Intercity Train Passengers, Developing Country, Stated Preference.

1. INTRODUCTION

Train is one of the oldest intercity public transportation modes in Indonesia. Society with various levels of income uses this kind of public transportation mode. An increase in economic activities in Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia has an impact in increasing number of trips between cities, especially cities around Jakarta. Cirebon, one of large cities in , Indonesia experiences this impact. As a consequence, transportation needs between Cirebon and Jakarta increase continuously. Therefore, Government of Republic of Indonesia develops new toll road between Cirebon and Jakarta, named Cikampek–Palimanan Toll Road with length of 116 km.

In the mean time many people use train as the public transportation mode from Cirebon to Jakarta and vice versa because of reasonable ticket price (Rp 80,000 or 9 US$) and travel time around 3 hours. But if the Cikampek–Palimanan Toll Road has been operated, bus ticket price and shorter travel time between the two cities are important reasons that have to be anticipated by PT. KAI, the Train Authority in Indonesia, because there are two mode-choices i.e. train

930 Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.9, 2011 and bus as the public transportation modes. Since 70 percent of PT. KAI income is from the passenger ticket, decrease in number of train passenger is a crucial problem.

The aim of this study are to examine the impact of new toll road operation in decreasing number of intercity train passengers and to determine factors that influence the train passengers to be bus passengers. Case study is carried out on Jakarta–Cirebon train route, named Argo Jati Train and Cirebon Express Train, and buses use Jakarta–Cirebon Toll Road in Indonesia. Stated preference method is used to estimate probability of train passenger that change to be bus passenger. The results are important and will be beneficial not only for Train Authority in Indonesia but also for Train Authorities in other developing countries with the same conditions.

2. PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION

Road and rail public transport services are normally associated with land use, economic, administrative, improved traveler information services measures which encourage the usage of public transport, and user who has to pay a cost (O’Flaherty, 2003, Khisty, 1998). Public transport systems, whether they are road or rail based, are more energy efficient, emit less airborne pollutants, minimise the amount of land use transport (including parking) purposes, and generally result in better physical environments in urban areas. Good public transport, especially rail transport, helps to retain employment and other activities in central areas, as well as facilitating pedestrianisation. However, people are unlikely to turn to public transport unless it is provided at reasonable cost by clean, comfortable vehicles and unless services are regular, predictable and reliable (O’Flaherty, 2003).

2.1 Rail Public Transport

Rail systems are most effectively used to service densely populated cities with relatively long journey-to-work distances along radial corridors with congested roads which are central area- oriented. Rail system often appears to have little impact on road congestion. Information about routes, waiting times, and time tables is important in removing uncertainty and much effort is currently being placed on providing rail customers with real time electronic information display at stations. Reliability is also critical, and many rail operations are now publishing charters which set out their target standards of service to passenger. Therefore, rail transport will be more attractive alternative than other public transport, for example bus (O’Flaherty, 2003).

2.2 Bus Public Transport

Strategies used to favour bus public transport are land use planning which locates large traffic generators at sides which are capable of being well served by buses and improving bus services. Improving bus services including quicker, more reliable journeys can stimulate bus patronage as well as reducing overall journey times, cost, limited stop service, route extensions, and expanded hours of operation (O’Flaherty, 2003). Furthermore, new higher hierarchy road facility also makes bus more attractive.

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2.3 Factors Affecting Mode Choice

Factors that may explain a trip maker’s choosing a specific mode of transportation for a trip are commonly grouped as follows (Kutz, 2004, O’Flaherty, 2003, Banks, 2002, Khisty, 1998):

• Trip maker Characteristics including income, car ownership, car availability, age, gender, level of education, occupancy; • Trip Characteristics including trip purpose (work, shop, recreation, etc.), destination orientation (CBD, non CBD), number of trip, trip length; • Transportation System Characteristics including waiting time, speed, cost, comfort and convenience, access to terminal or transfer location.

The choose of public transportation mode among trip makers are based on their each priority that different for each of them and also based on specific local conditions for examples: long waiting time of train departure and poor road conditions usually occur in developing countries.

3. DATA COLLECTION

The dominant public transportation modes in Indonesia are train and bus. In this study, data collection is carried out at Jakarta–Cirebon train route and new operation of Jakarta–Cirebon Toll Road in Indonesia, named Cikampek–Palimanan Toll Road with length of 116 km. Location of Cikampek–Palimanan toll road facility is presented in Figure 1.

Jalan Antar Jalan Tol Jalan Tol Special Jalan Tol Bandara Kawasan Cikarang - Metro Economic Zone Cikampek - Internasional Tj. Priok Bandung (SEZ) Cilamaya Palimanan Jawa Barat

Optimasi Jalan Tol Bandara Cileunyi - Smd Hussein Bekasi - Dawuan Karawang Jalan Tol Ciawi - Pelabuhan Sukabumi - Indramayu Cirebon Ciranjang

Jalur KA Free Trade Bandung - Cian- Subang Zone (FTZ) jur - Sukabumi Purwakarta Panggung

Bogor Optimasi Bandara Bandara Pel. Ratu Cirebon Penggung Majalengka Cianjur Pelabuhan Sumedang Jalur KA Samudra Rancaekek - BANDUNG Pel. Ratu Sukabumi Kuningan Tanjungsari Jalan Tol Soreang KA Komuter Ciranjang - Padalarang - Padalarang Cicalengka Jalan Lintas Garut Jalan Tol Selatan Cileunyi - Ciamis Tasikmalaya Jabar Ciamis -Banjar Legend : National Road : 1.140 km International Airport : 6 million pass/year Jalur KA National Road : 1.140 km International Airport : 6 million pass/year Banjar - Provincial Road : 2.077 km (Boeing 747 – 3,500 m runway length) Cijulang Non Status Road : 509 km Jalan Tol Existing Toll Road : 251 km Port of Cirebon : 500,000 TE’s/year Soreang - Planned Toll Road : 268 km (1,000 ha – 10m draft) Pasir Koja (Tender/Planning Process) Planned Toll Road : 546 km Cirebon Power Plant : 600 MW Bandara Jalur KA (On Going Investor) (Coal Thermal Power Generation – 600 Million USD) Nusawiru Soreang - Pangandaran Ciwidey

Figure 1 Cikampek–Palimanan toll road and toll road development planning in West Java, Indonesia (PT Jasa Sarana, 2005)

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Field survey for passenger population data is difficult, expensive, time consuming and need many observers to carry them out. Therefore, a number of train passengers and bus passengers are used as sample in this study. Questionnaire is used to obtain primary data regarding profile and characteristic of train and bus passengers, trip characteristics, and transportation system characteristics of train and bus passengers.

Other data obtained from questionnaire are passenger’s perception of the existing public transportation conditions regarding convenience, access, travel time, safety, mode choice, and ticket price. Previously, sample size method is used to determine passenger sample size and will be explained more detail in the next section.

3.1 Jakarta–Cirebon Intercity Train

Jakarta–Cirebon Intercity Trains observed in this study are Argo Jati train and Cirebon Ekspress train (Pambudi, 2010). The type of the train is diesel CC and consists of a number of passenger cars based on number of passengers at the time, a dining car, and a generator car. The detail data regarding the intercity train is presented in Table 1.

Table 1. Jakarta–Cirebon intercity train in West Java, Indonesia (PT. KAI, 2005a, 2005b, 2009)

Jakarta–Cirebon Intercity Train Explanation Argo Jati Train Cirebon Ekspress Train Number of travel 2 times (5:45am; 2:00pm) 5 times (6:15am; 7:40am; per day 10:00am; 3:15pm; 6:00pm)

Ticket price Executive class: Executive class: Rp. 90,000 (10.0 US$) weekdays Rp. 75,000 (8.3 US$) weekdays Rp. 95,000 (10.6 US$) weekends Rp. 80,000 (8.9 US$) weekends

Business class: Rp. 60,000 (6.7 US$) weekdays Rp. 65,000 (7.2 US$) weekends

Passenger cars Executive class: 8 – 10 cars Executive class: 3 – 5 cars Business class: 5 – 7 cars

Travel time 3 hours 3 hours

Delay time 10 – 40 minutes 10 – 40 minutes

Distance 219 km 219 km

3.2 Jakarta – Cirebon Intercity Bus

Jakarta–Cirebon Intercity Buses observed in this study consist of a number of buses from Harjamukti Cirebon Bus Station (Pambudi, 2010). The type of the bus is air-conditioning bus (AC bus) and non air-conditioning bus (non AC bus). The detail data regarding the intercity bus is presented in Table 2.

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Table 2. Jakarta–Cirebon intercity bus in West Java, Indonesia

Explanation Jakarta–Cirebon Intercity Bus Number of travel per day AC Bus: 6 times (5:00am; 7:00am; 9:00am; 11:00am; 2:00pm; 4:00pm) Non AC Bus: 20 times

Headway AC Bus: 2 hour Non AC Bus: 30 minutes

Ticket price Rp 45,000 (5.0 US$) Travel time 5 – 6 hours Delay time 1 – 2 hours Distance 237 km

3.3 Profiles and Characteristics of Train and Bus Passengers

Profiles and characteristics of Jakarta–Cirebon train passengers and vice versa regarding gender, monthly income, level of education, and occupation are presented in Figure 2 to Figure 5.

(< 0.5) (0.5 – 1.5) (> 7.0)

(5.0 – 7.0) (1.5 – 2.5)

(2.5 – 5.0)

Figure 2. Profile of train passengers Figure 3. Profile of train passengers based on gender based on monthly income (million Rp)

Graduate Army Secondary Teacher School House wife High School Employee Student

Undergraduate Diploma

Employer

Figure 4. Profile of train passengers Figure 5. Profile of train passengers based on level of education based on occupation

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Profiles and characteristics of Jakarta–Cirebon bus passengers and vice versa regarding gender, monthly income, level of education, and occupation are presented in Figure 6 to Figure 9.

(0.5 – 1.0)

(1.5 – 2.0) (1.0 – 1.5)

Figure 6. Profile of bus passengers Figure 7. Profile of bus passengers based on gender based on monthly income (million Rp)

38.88%

Figure 8. Profile of bus passengers Figure 9. Profile of bus passengers based on level of education based on occupancy

3.4 Trip Characteristics of Train and Bus Passengers

Trip characteristics of Jakarta–Cirebon of train passengers and vice versa regarding number of trip and trip purpose are presented in Figure 10 and Figure 11.

Others

Business / work Shop /recreation

Figure 10. Profile of train passengers Figure 11. Profile of train passengers based on number of trip based on trip purpose

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Trip characteristics of Jakarta–Cirebon bus passengers and vice versa regarding number of trip and trip purpose are presented in Figure 12 and Figure 13.

Figure 12. Profile of bus passengers Figure 13. Profile of bus passengers based on number of trip based on trip purpose

3.5 Transportation Systems Characteristics

Transportation systems characteristics of Jakarta–Cirebon train passengers and vice versa regarding transportation cost and train ticket cost are presented in Figure 14 and Figure 15.

(0.75 – 0.1) (0.4 – 0.5) (0.5 – 0.6) (0.75 – 1) (0.1 – 0.2) (0.6 – 0.7) (0.3 – 0.4) (0.5 – 0.75) (0.7 – 0.8) (1 – 1.5) (0.4 – 0.5) (0.8 – 0.9) (0.2 – 0.3)

(0.9 – 1.0) (0.8 – 0.9) (0.3 – 0.4)

Figure 14. Profile of train passengers Figure 15. Profile of train passengers based on transportation cost (million Rp) based on train ticket cost (million Rp)

Transportation systems characteristics of Jakarta–Cirebon bus passengers and vice versa regarding transportation cost and bus ticket cost are presented in Figure 16 and Figure 17.

(0.6 – 0.7) (0.3 – 0.4) (0.05 – 0.075) (0.2 – 0.3)

(0.075 – 0.1) (0.15 – 0.2) (0.5 – 0.6) (0.4 – 0.5)

(0.1 – 0.15)

Figure 16. Profile of bus passengers Figure 17. Profile of bus passengers based on transportation cost (million Rp) based on train ticket cost (million Rp)

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3.6 Passenger Train Travel Demand

Passenger train travel demands of Argo Jati and Cirebon Ekspress on Jakarta–Cirebon route are presented in Table 3.

Tabel 3 Passenger train travel demand (2003 – 2008) (PT. KAI, 2008)

No Train 2003 2004 2005 2006* 2007 2008

1 Argo Jati - - - 308,701 294,270 279,838 (executive class)

Travel Demand -4.67% -4.90% Growth (%)

2 Cirebon Ekspress 1,226,586 1,378,299 1,343,155 1,046,454 1,068,598 1,243,718

Executive class 427,837 575,410 679,449 419,098 466,563 549,212

Travel Demand 34.49% 18.08% -38.32% 11.33% 17.71% Growth (%)

Business class 798,749 802,889 663,706 627,356 602,035 694,506

Travel Demand 0.52% -17.34% -5.48% -4.04% 15.36% Growth (%) note: *) opeeration begin since May 2005

Data presented in this section will be used in further analysis in section 4.

4. METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Sample size, Stated Preference, Logistic Probability Unit, and Multiple Linear Regression (Roess, 2004, Mason, 2003, Montgomery, 2003, Ott, 2001) are statistical methods used to analyze the data in this study. More detail explanation is provided below.

4.1 Sample Size

There is 1,512,072 Jakarta–Cirebon train passengers per year. Using sample size method (Roess, 2004, Mason, 2003, Montgomery, 2003, Ott, 2001) with 90 percent level of confidence and 10 percent level of significance, therefore 100 respondents are needed as train passengers sample size. In this study 146 respondents answered the questionnaires.

(1) with : N = population of train passenger n = sample size d = level of significance 10% (d = 0.1)

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4.2 Mode Choice Analysis

Mode choice analysis is develop based on disaggregate stated preference method to choose one mode on a specific route. The objective of stated preference analysis is to estimate probability of train passengers to still use train as their transportation mode while there are external conditions of another public transportation mode, in this case bus, as a competitor. Equation 2 and equation 3 present the logistic probability unit model for train and bus, respectively.

− exp U T exp ( T UU bus ) P = = T − exp U T + exp U bus 1 + exp ( T UU bus ) (2)

1 = − = Pbus 1 PT − 1 + exp ( T UU bus ) (3) Probability to choose one mode, based on passengers’ opinion can also describe as presented in equation 4.

⎡ PT ⎤ Ln ⎢ ⎥ = T −UU bus ⎣1− PT ⎦ (4) with: PT = probability of choosing train Pbus = probability of choosing bus (or other public transportation mode) UT = Utility of train mode Ubus = Utility of bus mode

Utility function assumption is linear and consists of ticket price (travel service cost that has to be paid by passenger), travel time (time taken to traverse a defined section of roadway (Roess, 2004)), headway (time interval between successive vehicles as they pass a point along the lane, also measured between common reference points on the vehicles (Roess, 2004)), and ticket service performance (how to facilitatepassenger candidate to get the ticket easily) as the attributes of the train and bus transportation modes. The utility differences of the two public transportation modes are determine as a difference of each kind attribute and presented in equation 5.

UU ( TctTctaa ) ( TtTta ) +−+−+=− (Hdwya − Hdwy ) + (TctSa −TctS ) T Bus 10 T Bus 2 T Bus 3 T Bus 4 T Bus (5)

UT-UBus= - 0,94031 + 0,00007X1 + 0,034214X2 + 0,008398X3 + 0,247458X4 with: UT = Utility of train mode Ubus = Utility of bus mode X1 = train ticket price – bus ticket price X2 = train travel time – bus travel time X3 = train headway – bus headway X4 = train ticket service performance – bus ticket service performance

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Multiple Linear Regression method id used to determine the value of a0, a1, a2, a3, and a4. Table 4 presents the mode choice competition model between train and bus public transportation mode.

Table 4. Mode choice competition model at Jakarta–Cirebon mode

Jakarta-Cirebon route (train vs bus)

coefficient t-stat Sig constant -0,94 -2,419 0,016 Ticket price 7,25E-05 5,507 0,000 Travel time 0,034 23,813 0,000 Headway 0,008 10,455 0,000 Ticket service 0,247 5,135 0,000 performance R 0.826 Adjusted R² 0,681

Furthermore, hypothetical test is used to determine significance influence of the attribute to the difference of train utility and bus utility.

H0: coefficient of regression is not significant H1: coefficient of regression is significant

H0 is rejected if value of sig < α, α = 0,1 H1 is accepted if value of sig > α, α = 0,1

Table 4 shows the following results:

• The value of adjusted square R is 0,681. This means that the model can represent the real conditions well; • |t stat| > t critic means that the attributes i.e. ticket price, travel time, headway, and ticket service performance have significant influence to the difference between train utility and bus utility. Therefore, H0 is rejected. Moreover, it is proved that the four attributes are attributes that can represent difference model between train utility and bus utility.

4.3 Estimation Analysis

Estimation analysis is needed to determine the proportion of train passengers that potentially change to be bus passengers. Equation 4 regarding respondent utility mode choice models is used to determine the proportion. Table 5 presents that 14.09 percent of train passengers that potentially change to be bus passengers, based on 4 attributes that have been analyzed in section 4.2.

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Table 5. Estimation analysis of train passengers that potentially change to be bus passengers

Ticket Ticket price Travel time Headway constant service (Rp) (minute) (minute) performance train level (a) 80.000 180 180 1 bus level (b) 45.000 240 60 0 difference (a-b) 35.000 -60 120 1 level Variable -0.94031 7.25E-05 0.034214 0.008398 0.247458 U(train- bus) 1.808 Ptrain 85.91% Pbus 14.09%

train level = train attribute bus level = bus attribute difference level = train level – bus level Variable = data coefficient U(train-bus) = constant variable + (ticket price variable x difference of ticket price level) + (travel time variable x difference of travel time level) + (headway variable x difference of headway level) + (ticket service performance variable x difference of ticket service performance level) Ptrain = (EXP(U(train-bus)))/(1+EXP(U(train-bus)) Pbus =1- Ptrain

4.4 Recommended Improvement

Since there is 14.09 percent train passengers potentially change to be bus passengers, recommended improvement is needed to maintain the train passengers to still choose train as their public transportation mode. The improvement is provided based on respondent opinion by answering questionnaire. Table 6 presents rank from best to worst of existing public transportation service conditions attribute. While Table 7 presents priority of attributes that has to be improved based on passengers’ opinion.

Table 6. Service conditions attributes of Jakarta–Cirebon public transportation route

Service condition attributes (%) Rank based on train passengers’ opinion based on bus passengers’ opinion 1 Safety (17.89) Travel time (18.36) 2 Convenience (17.35) Safety (17.64) 3 Access (16.82) Convenience (16.75) 4 Travel time (16.58) Ticket price (16.22) 5 Mode choice (15.81) Access (16.64) 6 Ticket price (15.51) Mode choice (14.97)

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Table 6 shows that although all attributes seems have similar proportion, but based on passengers’ opinion, the best service condition is safety for train public transportation mode and travel time for bus public transportation mode.

Table 7. Attributes that have to be improved at Jakarta–Cirebon public transportation route

Attributes that has to be improved (%) Rank based on train passengers’ opinion based on bus passengers’ opinion 1 Convenience (17.24) Ticket price (17.46) 2 Ticket price (17.06) Access (17.12) 3 Travel time (16.83) Travel time (16.67) 4 Access (16.77) Safety (16.43) 5 Safety (16.18) Convenience (16.26) 6 Mode choice (15.89) Mode choice (16.09)

Table 7 shows that although all attributes seems have similar proportion, but based on passengers’ opinion, the main attributes that have to be improved are convenience for train public transportation mode and ticket price for bus public transportation mode.

5. CONCLUSIONS

This study examined the impact of new toll road operation in decreasing the number of intercity train passengers and to determine factors that influence the train passengers to be bus passengers. Case study was carried out at Jakarta–Cirebon Train and new operation of Jakarta–Cirebon Toll Road in Indonesia. Stated preference method was used to estimate probability of train passenger that change to be bus passenger. The result showed that 14.09 percent train passengers potentially change to be bus passengers. Furthermore, factors that influence the change were ticket price, travel time, headway, and ticket service performance of Jakarta–Cirebon train route. Furthermore, based on respondents’ opinion, the best service conditions were safety for train public transportation mode, and travel time for bus public transportation mode. Moreover, attributes to be improved were convenience for train and ticket price for bus public transportation. In conclusion, the results of this study are important and will be beneficial not only for Train Authority in Indonesia but also for Train Authorities in other developing countries with the same conditions.

REFERENCES

Banks, James H., (2002). Introduction to Transportation Engineering. 2nd edition, Mc Graw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1221 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10020. O’Flaherty, C.A. (2003). Transport Planning and Traffic Engineering. Elsevier Butterworth-Heinemann, Linacre House, Jordan Hill, Oxford OX2 8DP 200 Wheeler Road, Burlington, MA 01803. Khisty, C. Jotin., and Lall, B. Kent., (1998). Transportation Engineering: An Introduction. Prentice Hall Inc., Simon & Schuster / a Viacom Company, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458.

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Kutz, Myer, (2004). Handbook of Transportation Engineering. Mc Graw-Hill Companies, New York NY 10121-2298, Unite State of America. Mason, RL, Gunst, RF & Hess, JL., 2003, Statistical Design and Analysis of Experiments with Applications of Engineering and Science, 2nd edition, John Willey and Sons Hoboken, New Jersey. Montgomery, DC & Runger, GC., 2003, Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 3rd edition, John Wiley and Sons, Inc. Ott, RL, Longnecker, M., 2001, An Introduction to Statistical Methods and Data Analysis, fifth edition, Duxbury 511 Forest Lodge Road Pacific Grove, CA 93950, USA. Pambudi, Rizky I. I. B., (2010), Prakiraan Pengaruh Pengoperasian Jalan Tol Jakarta- Cirebon Terhadap Jumlah Penumpang Kereta Api Jurusan Jakarta-Cirebon, a thesis, Department of Civil Engineering, Parahyangan Catholic University, Indoneisa. PT Jasa Sarana, (2005), Toll Road Dvelopment Planning in West Java, Indonesia. PT. Kereta Api (Persero) DAOP 2 Bandung. (2005a). Antisipasi Pembukaan Jalan Tol Terhadap Pelayanan KA. Bandung. PT. KAI dan PT. Kutami. (2008). Studi Elastisitas Permintaan Pasar Angkutan Penumpang Segmen Komersial dan Peningkatan Daya Saing Produk Jasa Angkutan Penumpang KA Kelas Eksekutif dan Bisnis di pulau Jawa Beserta RAB- nya. PT. KAI. ”Jadwal Perjalanan KA Gambir–Cirebon PP. Daftar Harga dan Tiket KA Gambir–Cirebon PP,” (Online), (http://www.Info-KA.com/html, diakses 20 Agustus 2009). Roess, RP, McShane, WR & Prassas, ES., 2004, Traffic Engineering, Second Edition, Prentice Hall, Upper Sadle River, New Jersey 07458.

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