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Robin Batterham SUSTAINABILITY IN MINERALS: EVER MORE IMPORTANT PROF ROBIN J BATTERHAM KERNOT PROFESSOR OF ENGINEERING THE MELBOURNE UNIVERSITY, VIC 3010 AUSTRALIA SUMMARY/ABSTRACT It is suggested that the demand for minerals and metals will increase inexorably till at least 2030 and with falling grades and rising energy and water consumption, much more needs to be done to develop a sustainable “mine of the future”. The demands for more and better sustainability are also rising, again pushing us towards the “mine of the future”. We make the point that attitudes in mining companies need to change – a not impossible task, and that much is already happening in terms of autonomous operations. Finally we sketch a vision of how mining can be undertaken with negligible footprint and environmental impact. Such mines will be kilometres deep and will embrace in-place leaching and underground electro- winning, only bringing the valuable commodity to the surface. Keywords sustainability, mine of the future, in-place leaching, mining automation Sustainability in minerals: ever more important 1 1 | THE NEED FOR SUSTAINABILITY There has long been recognized a need for more sustainable mining. Environmental concerns have always been present and even long ago, were of relevance to local communities. Today, with global communications being so advanced, environmental concerns are shared around the world. As well, the concerns around the depletion of resources have been instrumental in raising the awareness for a systematic approach to sustainability, one that includes environmental concerns, resource availability and of course the direct and indirect stakeholders and communities. Despite the high profile of sustainability as a part of any mining development, agreement on how sustainability can be measured is still far from satisfactory. As we all recognize, “what gets measured gets done”. 1 2 It is informative to consider the fundamental trends that are driving the minerals industry as without some understanding of these trends, the targets for improvements in sustainability are too diffuse. Further, we will restrict the discussion to the next 20 years or so as further out, the balance between what is possible and what will happen becomes too diffuse. It has more to do with politics and expectations than technology or how companies behave. 1.1 | The demand side By far the strongest force shaping the minerals industry is the demand side. World population is growing, estimated to be 8 billion by 2030 3. At the same time the population is urbanizing. The trend in Figure 1 is clear and likely is unstoppable. As this urbanizing population increases its GDP, demand for minerals and metals follows. No country in the world through all of history has escaped this increase in demand as the GDP/head increases. With the world standing at aprox $10,300 GDP per head in 2012, the projected figure for 2022 is $15,000 per head and for 2030 $18,000 per head. An ongoing and rapid rise in demand for almost all commodities is inevitable. So the pressure on sustainability is 00 1 great indeed. 1 Batterham 2003 2 Batterham 2013 3 United Nations World Population Prospects, 2011 2 BATTERHAM 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Figure 1. The increasing urban population means increasing demand Source: United Nations, 2011. 1.2 | The Supply Side Since the time of Malthus, there have been predictions of shortages of minerals and other commodities. One of the most detailed was from “The Club of Rome” 4 who suggested in 1972 that we would run out of oil in 1992, of gas in 1994 and of coal in 2083. Clearly we have not run out and it is important to understand why. One can note however that the grades mined, when averaged globally have been falling as more and more is mined. This trend has been going on for many centuries. Indeed, using copper as an example, forward projections of grade are to fall from 1.1% now to around 0.9% by 2025. And as grades fall, so the energy required to separate valuable minerals rises. Again using copper as an example and the extensive work of Marsden 5 we see that for all currently known routes, as grades fall, energy requirements increase. Interestingly, in Australia in the last 30 years, the average grade mined has reduced by 50% and the average energy used has increased by 70% 6. This does not sound like sustainable mining. 4 Meadows, D.H., Meadows, D.L., Randers, J., & Behrens III, W.W., 1972 5 Marsden 2008 6 Energy Efficiency Exchange, 2013 Sustainability in minerals: ever more important 3 Figure 2. How energy requirements increase as grades fall. Source: Marsden, 2008. 1.3 | The Fundamental Trend That we have not run out of minerals even though demand has increased dramatically, grades are falling and the energy for mining and processing is increasing is easily explained by the march of technology. We continue to move down the resource pyramid because of the innovations that are made, both step change and incremental. In copper mining alone we have seen step changes in the last 100 years that have dramatically reduced costs and allowed more sustainable operations: • Flotation • Open pit mining • Heap-leaching • SX-EW • SAG mill circuits • GPS truck location We can conclude that there is no scarcity of energy and mineral resources. They are in reality ever more available at lower costs (in real terms) because of the innovations seen in the industry. In passing, this is not to say that market manipulation can in the short term (to 5 years) cause shortages and price spirals. Rare earths are a key example but there are others. The European 00 3 Union has listed 41 minerals and metals where it has concerns around market manipulation, with 13 of these being seen as strategically threatened. 7 In all cases however, the total supply 7 European Commission, 2010 4 BATTERHAM available and that needed for the next 30 years are seen as in reasonable balance. 2 | THE CHANGING FACE OF SUSTAINABILITY Previously, sustainability was relatively simple. Companies ensured they had a solid system of governance in the way they conducted business and paid attention to: • People o Especially social responsibility • Planet o Sound environmental management o Measured and reported environmental performance • Prosperity o Adequate economic returns to shareholders o Fiscal contributions to governments and other stakeholders The production side of the equation worldwide tends to be a good news story. As an example, in the phosphate industry 8: • More of the phosphate rock is mined • There are serious efforts on energy, water and dust reduction • Upgrading via washing, screening, cyclones, flotation is routine o In terms of salt water flotation the industry is well advanced • Despite increased demand, the amount of rock shipped is reduced due to vertical integration and better recoveries • Fertiliser usage is also improving o Demand per hectare is reducing o Less run-off to waterways But against these solid improvements, the environment side keeps becoming more complex. There are commonly demands not just on emission levels of noise, dust, gaseous and liquid emissions as there have been for many years but also a requirement to focus on: • Energy efficiency • Green energy sources • Life cycle of products • Waste management • Ecology and land use changes • Loss of biodiversity 8 Batterham, 2013 Sustainability in minerals: ever more important 5 • Depletion of resources • Environmental impact • Need to use less water And the public licence to operate is becoming ever more challenging to obtain and maintain. As a small example of the lack of logic that can prevail, the power industry in Germany, faced with bringing on more coal fired power to make up for the phasing out of nuclear power, has agreed that no cooling towers will be built as they are seen by the public as unsightly and polluting , with water vapour in reality. Governments are becoming increasingly aware of their power to participate in private mining projects as a sovereign right. Equally, citizens are demanding more involvement, more action targeting long term recoveries and attention to social concerns. Of the 223 registered socio-environmental conflicts recoreded in Peru this year from January through July, 72.3% were against mining operations.9 Sustainability now takes much more effort and time. All possible stakeholders must be identified and their narratives understood. Potential future scenarios have to be evaluated in order to develop engagement approaches for each constituency. The recent agreement by Rio Tinto in the Pilbara region of Australia has been heralded as a classic example of the new style for sustainability. The agreement delivered access to 70,000 square kilometres for exploration and development with the traditional owners receiving employment opportunities and compensation, eg every school leaver is offered a job. The process involves outlays of $2bn and took 7 years to bring to agreement. It started with considerable baseline community assessment and engagement to give key demographic, social and economic data. From there it moved to partnerships with the communities, NGO’s and governments. A long but successful journey. Understanding the stakeholders is the key that now has the highest priority in obtaining the public license to operate. Reggio and Lane 10 have comprehensively mapped out the diversity of 00 5 stakeholders and shown how it is inevitable that there will be conflicts of interests that must be balanced. 9 Business News Americas, 2013 10 Reggio & Lane, 2012 6 BATTERHAM Figure 3. Understanding the stakeholders. Source: Reggio R. & Lane A. 2012. One can conclude this section noting that sustainability itself has become far more complex in recent years, particularly in terms of obtaining the public license to operate.
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