8.99 Reconstruction Era Inflation-adjusted and the beginning of 8.03 on the 10-year U.S. Treasury the Industrialization Data as of May 2, 2021 of America 7.07

6.12

The Great Depression of 1929, World War II, 5.16 Eight-year drought (The Dust Bowl)

4.20

3.24

2.28

1.33

0.37

-0.59 Stagflation and extremely rapid growth of the money supply -1.55

1.61% Current -2.51 -0.49% Current yield after expected inflation

-3.47 1.16% Current trendline inflation-adjusted yield Creation of the American middle class -4.42 86% Percentage of the time that inflation-adjusted yields are higher than they are today Global pandemic and the ready availability of credit (The Spanish Flu), 17% Percentage of the time that inflation-adjusted yields are negative The Great Depression -5.38 of 1920, World War I How much the 10-year Treasury bond would have to fall in price for rates to return -15% to trendline (if change occurred overnight) -6.34 1,848.7 1,857.0 1,865.2 1,873.4 1,881.6 1,889.8 1,898.1 1,906.3 1,914.5 1,922.7 1,930.9 1,939.2 1,947.4 1,955.6 1,963.8 1,972.0 1,980.3 1,988.5 1,996.7 2,004.9 2,013.1 2,021.3 Important Disclosures

• All statistics are reported after inflation has been subtracted out. As a consequence, yields are-over-and-above inflation.

• Data, statistics, and the graphic are shown for the time period starting on September 30, 1848 and ending on May 2, 2021.

• Only closing, month-end values are used for both the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds and for the Consumer Price Index.

• Author: Rob Brown, PhD, CFA at [email protected]

• Statistics based on data provided by Global Financial Data, San Juan Capistrano, CA 92675 at www.gfdfinaeon.com and are current as of the market close on May 2, 2021. Results rely only on month-end yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond adjusted for the All Urban Consumers Not Seasonally Adjusted Consumer Price Index as provided by the U.S. Department of Labor.

• The inflation rate that is used to adjust the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (from a nominal yield to a real yield) is the Consumer Price Index measured over a 7.5-year time window that starts exactly 3.75 years in the past and ends exactly 3.75 years in the future. As a result, the inflation- adjustment is 50% backward-looking and 50% forward-looking.

• The current yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is calculated as the midpoint between the “USA 10-year Bond Constant Maturity Yield” and the “CBOE 10-year US Yield Index”.

• Ideas and concepts are for illustrative purposes only.

• Investment advice offered through Integrated Partners, a Registered Investment Adviser. ©Integrated Financial Partners, Inc.