Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
August 2011
Contacts: [email protected] 0131 240 3269 Voting intention: all giving an opinion vs. those ‘certain to vote’ – Constituency vote, Holyrood Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote? All giving a voting All who are certain intention (88%) to vote (60%) Others Others (3%) Lib Dem 4% Lib Dem 7% 7% Conservative Cons. 12% SNP 13% SNP
47% 49%
30% 28% Labour Labour
SNP lead = 17% SNP lead = 22%
Base: All giving a voting intention = 88% (883); all certain to vote = 60% (596). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI Voting intention for the Constituency element of a Scottish Parliament Election – Trends
Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other
Scottish Parliament Election Scottish Parliament Election Result Result 50 49%
40
30 28%
20 13% 10 7% 0 3% Mar- Jun- Sep- Mar- Jun- May- 2008 Aug- Nov- Feb- Aug- Nov- Feb- Apr- May- Aug- 05 05 05 06 06 07 09 09 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 Year Base: All certain to vote – March 2005 (436); June 2005 (500); Sep 2005 (544); March 2006 (491); June 2006 (444); August 2009 (533); November 2009 (546); February 2010 (581); August 2010 (677); November 2010 (628); February 2011 (627); April 2011 (667); August 2011 (596). Pre Aug 2009 – data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults face-to-face; Post Aug 2009 - Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone Voting intention: all giving an opinion vs. those ‘certain to vote’ - Westminster Q. How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? All giving a voting All who are certain intention (86%) to vote (61%) Other Other Conservative 4% Conservative 4% 13% 15%
Lib Dem SNP SNP 6% 42% 42% Lib Dem 6%
Labour 35% 33% Labour SNP lead over Labour = +7% SNP lead over Labour = +9%
Base: All giving a voting intention = 86% (855); all certain to vote = 61% (608). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI Voting intention for a Westminster General Election – Trends
Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other
General Election General Election Result Result 50 42% 40
33% 30
20 15% 10 6% 4% 0 Mar- May- Mar- Jun- 2007 2008 Aug- Nov- Feb- Apr- May- Aug- Nov- Aug- 05 05 06 06 09 09 10 10 10 10 10 11 Year Base: All certain to vote – March 2005 (434); March 2006 (526); June 2006 (520); August (571); November 2009 (576); February 2010 (608); April 2010 (685); August 2010 (710); November 2010 (640); August 2011 (608) Pre Aug 2009 – data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults face-to-face; Post Aug 2009 - Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone Satisfaction with party leaders – Scottish Parliament Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as First Minister/Scottish Liberal Democrats Party?
Net satisfaction Net satisfaction, April ‘11 Satisfied Dissatisfied
Alex Salmond 62% 28% +34 +33
Willie Rennie 17% 32% -14 N/A
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI Satisfaction with party leaders – Trends
Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as First Minister of Scotland/Leader of Scottish Liberal Democrats?
Alex Salmond Willie Rennie Scottish Parliament Election % satisfied 60 62%
50
40
30
Tavish Scott 20 17%
10 Willie Rennie
0 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Aug-11 Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI