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INFORMATION TO USERS This manuscript has been reproduced from the microfilm master. UMI films the text directly from the original or copy submitted. Thus, some thesis and dissertation copies are in typewriter face, while others may be from any type of computer printer. The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. Broken or indistinct print, colored or poor quality illustrations and photographs, print bleedthrough, substandard margins, and improper alignment can adversely affect reproduction. In the unlikely event that the author did not send UMI a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if unauthorized copyright material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Oversize materials (e.g., maps, drawings, charts) are reproduced by sectioning the original, beginning at the upper left-hand corner and continuing from left to right in equal sections with small overlaps. Each original is also photographed in one exposure and is included in reduced form at the back of the book. Photographs included in the original manuscript have been reproduced xerographically in this copy. Higher quality 6" x 9" black and white photographic prints are available for any photographs or illustrations appearing in this copy for an additional charge. Contact UMI directly to order. University Microfilms International A Bell & Howell Information Company 300 North Zeeb Road. Ann Arbor. Ml 48106-1346 USA 313/761-4700 800/521-0600 Order Number 9211132 Roadway infrastructure management and investment behavior studies for developing countries: A multicriteria approach to road improvement decision-making Garrett, Charles Colin, Ph.D. The Ohio State University, 1991 UMI 300 N. Zeeb Rd. Ann Aibor, MI 48106 ROADWAY INFRASTRUCTURE MANAGEMENT AND INVESTMENT BEHAVIOR STUDIES FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES - A MULTICRITERIA APPROACH TO ROAD IMPROVEMENT DECISION MAKING DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of the Ohio State University By Charles Colin Garrett, B.Eng, M.Eng. * * * * The Ohio State University 1991 Dissertation Committee: Approved by Earl E. W hitlatch Yeou-Shang Jenq Jason H su VI A dviser Department of Civil Engineering To My Wife and Children ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The gratitude which I would like to express to those who made this study possible goes much deeper than prose could connote. My sincerest appreciation is extended to Dr. Zoltan Nemeth for his guidance, patience and insight throughout my academic life at The Ohio State University. To all other members of my advisory committee, Dr. Yeou-Shang Jenq and Dr. Jason Hsu, I would like to give special thanks for their unselfish contributions and persistent encouragement even at times when the focus of the study was still unclear. To Dr. Earl Whitlatch for his critical evaluation and suggestions on refinement. Dr. Frannie Humplick instilled confidence in me during the early stages of the study with the keen interest she showed. Her methodical overview made it easier to construct the framework of the study. To her I extend my gratitude. The study would not have been possible without the cooperation of the technical personnel of the Ministry of Works and members of the budget committee of the State Planning Secretariat, Guyana. The willingness with which they made the data available and the speed with which they responded to requests, deserve special acknowledgement. To the university of Guyana I am heavily indebted for affording me an opportunity to further my studies. Finally I would like to express special appreciation to my wife and children for understandably enduring three and one half years of single parent cohabitation while I pursued my academic goals. VITA June 25,1950 ......................................... Born Georgetown Guyana. 1976 .......................................................... B.Eng. University of Guyana, Guyana. 1976-1980 ................................................ Geotechnical and Materials engineer, The Soils Materials and Research Laboratories, Guyana. 1980. ............................................. M.Eng. California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, Cali­ fornia. 1980-1982 ................................................ Construction Engineer, Roads Divis­ ion Ministry of Works, Guyana. 1982-1985 ................................................ Chief Roads Officer, Road Adminis­ tration Division Ministry of Trans­ port, Guyana. 1985-Present ........................................... Senior Lecturer, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Guyana. PUBLICATIONS: Garrett, Charles, 'Pavement Design in Guyana - Flexible Pavements', Proceedings of the FURORIS congress (Future of Roads and Rivers in Suriname and Neighbouring Region), Suriname 1982. FIELDS OF STUDY Major Field: Civil Engineering TABLE OF CONTENTS DEDICATION i i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.......................................................................................................... iii VITA .................................................................................................................................................. v LIST OF TABLES.............................................................................................................................. xi LIST OF F IG U R E S ........................................................................................................................ xiii CHAPTER PAGE INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................... 1 ON INVESTMENT BEHAVIOR................................................................ 3 A DESCRIPTION AND LOCATION OF GUYANA 6 I. A LITERATURE R E V IEW ................................................................................... 10 1.0 The Scope of the Review ........................................ 10 1.1 Roadway Infrastructure M anagem ent .................. 11 1.1.1 Inventorization ................................................ 20 1.1.2 Condition Evaluation ..................................... 21 1.1.3 Performance Prediction .................................. 23 1.2. The State of the A r t....................................................... 23 1.3. Statem ent of the Problem ............................................ 33 1.4. Research Approach and Contribution ....................... 36 1.4.1. Ranking Alternatives ...................................... 41 vi CHAPTER PAGE 1.5. The Goal............................................................................ 42 1.6. The O bjectives............................................................... 42 1.7. The Scope .......................................................................... 43 II. DATA REQUIREMENTS.......................................................................... 44 2.0 Supporting Data files .................................................... 44 2.0.1. Design and Construction Data ......................... 44 2.0.2. Maintenance History D a t a .......................... 45 2.0.3. Drainage Inform ation ....................................... 45 2.0.4. Geometries In fo rm atio n .................................. 45 2.0.5.Climatological Information ............................... 46 2.1. Record Keeping Strategies ............................................. 46 2.2. Netw ork C lassificatio n ................................................ 47 2.3. N etw ork Inventory and Characterization ................. 48 2.4. Design Standards ............................................................ 49 2.5. Pavem ent Condition Evaluation .................................. 50 2.5.1. Evaluation M ethodology ................................... 50 2.6 Guyana’s Network Evaluation ......................................... 52 III. PAVEMENT PERFORMANCE AND PREDICTION.................................. 54 3.1. Performance Data ............................................................. 54 3.2. Modeling Pavement D eterioration .............................. 60 3.2.1. The Markov P rocess .......................................... 61 3.2.2. The B-Spline Estim ation ................................... 64 v i i CHAPTER PAGE 3.2.3. The Constrained Least Squares ....................... 70 IV. IMPROVEMENT NEEDS AND ECONOMIC EVALUATION.................. 71 4.0. Improvement N eeds...................................................... 71 4.1. Economic Evaluation .................................................... 75 4.1.1. Initial Construction Costs ................................ 76 4.1.2. Periodic Maintenance Costs ............................ 77 4.1.3. Road Users Cost ................................................. 78 4.1.4. Accident C o s ts ................................................. 80 4.1.5. Travel Time C o s t s .......................................... 80 4.2. Transportation Benefits ................................................. 81 4.2.1. Economic Development Benefits .................. 81 4.3. Measures of Economic Efficiency ................................. 82 V. PRIORITIZATION................................................................................. 85 5.1 Socioeconomic and Institutional Considerations . 88 5.2. Ranking of Alternative ................................................... 89 5.2.1. Attributes of the Priority Utility Model . 90 5.2.2. Determination of Relative Weights .... 92 VI INVESTMENT BEHAVIOR MODELING............................... 96 6.1. Model Specifications .................................................
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