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Natural Gas in Greece and Albania Supply and Demand Prospects to 2015

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Natural Gas in Greece and Albania Supply and Demand Prospects to 2015 Natural Gas in Greece and Albania Supply and Demand Prospects to 2015 Anastasios Giamouridis NG 37 December 2009 The contents of this paper are the author’s sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the views of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its members. Copyright © 2009 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (Registered Charity, No. 286084) This publication may be reproduced in part for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgment of the source is made. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. ISBN 978-1-901795-99-8 ii Preface In the wake of the January 2009 Russia-Ukraine crisis, south east Europe began to receive more attention from the European gas community with the realisation that, for these markets, security of supply is a far more urgent issue than for most of north west Europe. However, because – with the exception of Romania – there are few large gas markets in the region, published work is still mainly conducted at a regional level without detailed analysis of specific countries. When Tassos Giamouridis contacted me proposing a study of the Greek and Albanian gas markets, I was keen for two reasons, first it fills a major gap in easily accessible literature on the regional markets and complements our previous publications on this region. Second, it stresses the importance of these two – relatively small but key – markets for new interconnectors, transit pipelines and LNG terminals. The future of these projects is still unclear but, with most of the public commentary focussed on their political and geopolitical merits, there is a clear need for independent studies which are principally concerned with whether, and in what time frame, they can be achieved commercially. We are very grateful to Tassos for suggesting this study and then carrying it through to a successful conclusion. His knowledge of the region and its language has proved invaluable, and evidence of the detailed research which he has carried out is evident on every page. Jonathan Stern December 2009 iii About the Author Anastasios Giamouridis is a Lead Consultant at PFC Energy, focusing on the oil and gas markets of South Eastern Europe and Turkey. Prior to joining PFC Energy, Anastasios worked in the Political Section of the Inter-Parliamentary European Security and Defence Assembly (Western European Union) in Paris, and in the House of Commons in London, while he has also served as Second Lieutenant in the Hellenic Army. Anastasios has published a number of articles in peer-reviewed academic journals, including in the European Foreign Affairs Review and the Journal of Modern Greek Studies. He holds an MSc with Merit from the London School of Economics, UK; an MA with Distinction from the University of Durham, UK; and a BA from the University of Ioannina, Greece. iv Table of Contents Tables ...................................................................................................................................... vii Figures ................................................................................................................................... viii Maps ...................................................................................................................................... viii Glossary ................................................................................................................................... ix Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................ xii Research Focus and Rationale ................................................................................................ 1 Legislation and Regulatory Framework ................................................................................ 4 Background and Natural Gas System in Albania................................................................... 4 The Greek Natural Gas System .............................................................................................. 8 Structure of the Greek Natural Gas Market ......................................................................... 14 Liberalization of the Greek Natural Gas Market .............................................................. 14 Government attempts at privatization and full unbundling .............................................. 16 RAE recommendations on the Greek NNGS and potential INGSs .................................. 19 Gas Demand in Albania and Greece to 2015 ....................................................................... 21 Albania pushes forward with gasification to meet growing energy demand ....................... 21 Natural gas demand in Greece to continue on upward trend .............................................. 23 Expanding power sector supports demand in Greece .......................................................... 26 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 26 Greenfield projects ........................................................................................................... 29 Greek demand fundamentals remain strong in the residential sector ................................. 37 Wholesale and retail pricing of natural gas in the Greek market ........................................ 39 Increasing CNG usage to support natural gas penetration in the Greek market ................ 41 Supply Prospects for Albania and Greece to 2015 .............................................................. 43 Natural gas supply options for Albania ............................................................................... 43 Current natural gas supply options for Greece ................................................................... 45 Scope for additional gas volumes for Greece through existing interconnections ............... 48 New interconnections face delays, are marred with uncertainty ......................................... 50 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 50 Interconnector Turkey–Greece–Italy (ITGI) .................................................................... 50 Issues affecting pace of implementation ....................................................................... 53 v Drivers supporting implementation .............................................................................. 54 Interconnector Greece–Bulgaria (IGB) ............................................................................ 56 Broader cooperation between regional partners ........................................................... 60 South Stream..................................................................................................................... 62 Southern route ............................................................................................................... 65 Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) ......................................................................................... 66 Ionian–Adriatic Pipeline (IAP) ......................................................................................... 69 Problems associated with proposed supply sources ......................................................... 70 Azerbaijan ..................................................................................................................... 70 Iran ................................................................................................................................ 71 Turkey ........................................................................................................................... 73 Other possible sources .................................................................................................. 76 Liquefied Natural Gas in Greece and Albania .................................................................... 79 Infrastructure and Supply..................................................................................................... 79 Planned infrastructure ......................................................................................................... 81 Greece ............................................................................................................................... 81 Albania.............................................................................................................................. 82 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 82 ASG Power ................................................................................................................... 84 Gruppo Energia Falcione .............................................................................................. 84 Conclusions and Summary.................................................................................................... 87 Albania ................................................................................................................................. 87 Greece .................................................................................................................................. 88 Summary of Conclusions .....................................................................................................
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