The Seeds of Artificial Intelligence
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, and WELFARE The Public Health Service Seeds of National Institutes of Health Artificial Intelligence SUMEX-AIM For Ie lIy tho SupulnLend~nt 01 Doc:um~nU, U.S. Oonmmtnt Prlntlnc omce, Wuhlnclon, D.C. !!Ot02 A publication of The Division of Research Resources National Institutes of Health Seeds of Bethesda, Maryland 20205 Artificial Intelligence Prepared by SUMEX-AIM Research Resources Information Center 1776 East Jefferson Street Rockville, Maryland 20852 under contract N01-RR-9-2114 ; I March 1980 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, and WELFARE Public Health Service National Institutes of Health NIH Pubicabon No 8G-2071 - This publication was written by Gregory Freiherr I The efforts of many people Acknowledgements made this publication possible. Special thanks go to Mr. Thomas Rindfleisch; Drs. Joshua Leder berg, Herbert Simon, Edward Feigenbaum, Bruce Buchanan, Paul Armand, William Baker, Jack Myers. and Harry Pople; and Mr. Edward Post. 3 In the past century, science has the defect of their virtues. They are not only changed our conceptions too detailed, too exhaustive and, Foreword about the world, it has changed it most important, too focused on self. Driven by an explosion of in Single areas of rapidly expanding formation, specialties in science disciplines. To understand this new have sprung up, inevitably giving branch of computer science, called rise to subspecialties. But staying artificial intelligence (AI) , it is nec abreast of new knowledge, even in essary to understand the founda narrowly specialized areas, is be tion, the broader base, on which it coming increasingly difficult. One rests. way to manage the continuing This publication will present a flood of new information may be to general view of AI , the concepts create entities of intelligence. from which it evolved, its current The proposed tool is the intelli abilities, and its promise for re gent machine, a device that mimics search. The focus is on a commu the expert's reasoning power and nity of projects that use the can retain in retrievable form much SUM EX-AIM (Stanford University of the knowledge currently avail Medical Experimental Computer able to experts in a given specialty. for Artificial Intelligence in Medi Most systems of this type are still cine) network. immature. But some are already SUMEX-AIM is a nationally moving into the real world and shared computing resource de others will make the transition voted entirely to deSigning AI within the next few years. As these applications for the biomedical sci activities become more formalized, ences. It is funded by the NIH Divi a new branch of applied science sion of Research Resources, will arise. Most likely it will be Biotechnology Resources Pro called knowledge engineering. gram. Although SUM EX-AIM does What systems will be available? not include all AI projects directed Who will they help? How will they toward medicine and related re work? search in this country, many of the Many answers are contained in programs now using AI techniques existing books and articles. But for medical decision-making were technical publications suffer from developed using this facility. 4 Foreword 4 Table Introduction Artificial Intelligence-What's in a of Name? 6 History of Computing Contents Abacus to EN lAC-and Beyond 9 Processes of Computing The Heuristic Mind 20 SUMEX and the Science Community The Seeds of Artificial Intelligence 24 Biochemistry 25 Clinical Medicine 33 Psychology 54 AI Tool Building 62 Future of AI Prospectus 64 Appendix A Organization and Facilities Available 69 Appendix B Management 71 Appendix C SUM EX-AIM Directory and Project Funding 73 5 For centuries, philosophers and computers are only research tools, linguists have grappled with the machines programmed to do Introduction question of defining intelligence. things that would require intelli Most have approached the issue gence if done by people. Dr. Mar by describing the function of intelli vin L. Minsky, artificial intelligence gence, or the way it appears in be (AI) researcher at the Massachu havior. An exact definition for this setts Institute of Technology and term is elusive. advisor for SUMEX-AIM, agrees. As might be expected, machine He says artificial intelligence is the intelligence is equally, if not more, science of making machines do difficult to define. According to Dr. things that people need intelli Margaret Boden in her book Artiti gence to do. ciallntelligence and Natural Man, Others take a somewhat differ- Artificial Intelligence- What's In• a Name? 6 ent view. Dr. Edward Feigenbaum, areas of medical diagnosis and gained from real-world experience. principal investigator of SUMEX chemical structure analysis, some When used in AI, heuristics AIM, says the field is not primarily programs can already rival human focus the program's attention on oriented toward technology, but capabilities. Still, many people are those parts of the problem that are toward investigating the nature of skeptical of the computer's poten most critical and those parts of the intelligence as information process tial. knowledge base that are most rel ing, whether the intelligence is ex Nobel Prize winner Dr. Herbert evant. The result is that these pro pressed by man or machine. A. Simon, psychologist-computer grams pursue a line of reasoning, One point of emphasis in current scientist at Carnegie-Mellon Uni rather than a sequence of arith AI research is to design computer versity and SUMEX-AIM advisor, is metic steps. programs that capture the knowl convinced that this potential is Use of complex symbolic struc edge and reasoning processes of generally underrated. He says tures is necessary when construct highly intelligent specialists. The human behavior is based on a ing computer applications for practical goal of such work is to complex but definite set of laws. If domains that cannot be well make specialized expertise more these laws are discovered and re formulated in mathematical terms generally accessible. To do so, duced to computer software, Dr. -either because they are not fully researchers are attempting to Simon believes machine intelli understood, as in medical diag understand how experts go about gence comparable to man's will nosis, or because the underlying acquiring and using knowledge. become a certainty in specific concepts are intrinsically non Principles of how knowledge ac areas of expertise. numerical. "Seldom are there crues and how it is retrieved in log To capture these higher level equations, in the mathematical ical sequence are extracted. They functions, AI researchers are de sense, that relate measurements are then programmed into the veloping a new approach. It IS of body parameters to the diag computer. called symbolic computation, a set nosis of disease," says Mr. Within the SUMEX-AIM system, of methods by which abstractions Thomas Rindfleisch, director of the the reasoning processes of physi can be expressed and managed in SUMEX computing facility. "Rather, cians, chemists, and other biomed the computer to solve non the process of diagnosis is charac ical scientists are being analyzed. mathematical problems. They em terized by a set of strategies hav At present, the ability of most pro phasize manipulations of symbolic ing to do with rules of experience grams is limited and much less rather than numeric information, and judgmental knowledge. These flexible than the corresponding and they use largely informal or rules govern the interpretation of human intellect. In specialized heuristic decision-making rules observations and guide decisions Dr. Herbert A. Simon, SUMEX-AIM advisor: sorting out the recipe of intelligence. 7 about what other information is come of research such as this at needed to determine the disease SUMEX-AIM is eliciting, organiz process involved." ing, and polishing a body of knowl For example, INTERNIST, a edge that rarely sees the light of diagnostic computer program in day," he says. "It is the knowledge the SUMEX-AIM network, is fo that underlies the expertise of cused on the broadest of medical practice, the knowledge that is specialties-internal medicine. It normally transmitted by a kind of analyzes patient cases by mimick osmosis process from master to ing the expert's reasoning process. apprentice. That knowledge will "The method used by physicians to now be codified, taught, used, and arrive at diagnoses requires com critiqued." In essence then, a key plex information processing which goal of artificial intelligence re bears little resemblance to the search in the SUM EX-AIM com statistical manipulations of most munity is to capture in computer computer-based systems," says programs the knowledge and Dr. Jack D. Myers, coprincipal in problem-solving abilities of ex vestigator of the project at the Uni perts. After studying this process in versity of Pittsburgh. "As a result, many specialized areas of exper the focus of research in this field of tise, Mr. Rindfleisch says, it may ul medical applications has shifted timately be possible to capture in during the past few years from computer programs something of models of statistical inference to the process of creativity and dis those using the heuristics of artifi covery itself. Programs then would cial intelligence." possess the ability to detect pat "In final form, INTERNIST will terns that establish order from amplify intelligence," Dr. Feigen chaos, to draw connections be baum says. It will supply expert tween seemingly unrelated ideas, advice to the general practitioner and to establish the principles for and physician's assistant, ac solutions to new classes of celerating and improving their problems. work. "An equally important out- Dr. Edward Feigenbaum, principal investigator of SUMEX-AIM: "The laws of expertise will be taught, used, and critiqued .• 8 In the millennium before Christ, called it, "the music of the amid the great cities and con spheres." He became the first to History quests of Greece and Rome, realize the importance of geomet dreamers and theorists were laying ric shape, which governs all nature of the groundwork for today's thinking from crystalline rock to the human machines.