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Facebook Causes Protests Documento CEDE Leopoldo Fergusson Carlos Molina # 41 Diciembre de 2019 (Actualizado en abril de 2021) Serie Documentos Cede, 2019-41 (actualizado en 2021) ISSN 1657-7191 Edición electrónica. Diciembre de 2019 © 2021, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE. Calle 19A No. 1 – 37 Este, Bloque W. Bogotá, D. C., Colombia Teléfonos: 3394949- 3394999, extensiones 2400, 2049, 2467 [email protected] http://economia.uniandes.edu.co Impreso en Colombia – Printed in Colombia La serie de Documentos de Trabajo CEDE se circula con propó- sitos de discusión y divulgación. Los artículos no han sido evaluados por pares ni sujetos a ningún tipo de evaluación formal por parte del equipo de trabajo del CEDE. El contenido de la presente publicación se encuentra protegido por las Documento CEDE normas internacionales y nacionales vigentes sobre propiedad intelectual, por tanto su utilización, reproducción, comunica- Los documentos CEDE son producto de ción pública, transformación, distribución, alquiler, préstamo las investigaciones realizadas por al menos público e importación, total o parcial, en todo o en parte, en un profesor de planta de la Facultad de formato impreso, digital o en cualquier formato conocido o por Economía o sus investigadores formalmente conocer, se encuentran prohibidos, y sólo serán lícitos en la asociados. medida en que se cuente con la autorización previa y expresa por escrito del autor o titular. Las limitaciones y excepciones al Derecho de Autor, sólo serán aplicables en la medida en que se den dentro de los denominados Usos Honrados (Fair use), estén previa y expresamente establecidas, no causen un grave e injustificado perjuicio a los intereses legítimos del autor o titular, y no atenten contra la normal explotación de la obra. Universidad de los Andes | Vigilada Mineducación Reconoci- miento como Universidad: Decreto 1297 del 30 de mayo de 1964. Reconocimiento personería jurídica: Resolución 28 del 23 de febrero de 1949 Minjusticia. Facebook Causes Protests∗ Leopoldo Fergussony Carlos Molinaz Abstract Using Facebook's release in a given language as an exogenous source of variation in access to social media where the language is spoken, we show that Facebook has had a significant and sizable positive impact on citizen protests. By exploiting variation in a large sample of countries during close to 15 years and combining both aggregate and individual-level data, we confirm the external validity of previous research docu- menting this effect for specific contexts along a number of dimensions: geographically, by regime type, temporally, and by the socioeconomic characteristics of both countries and social media users. We find that \coordination" effects that rest on the \social" nature of social media play an important role beyond one-way information transmis- sion, including a \liberation effect” produced by having a direct outlet to voice opinions and share them with others. Finally, we explore the broader political consequences of increased Facebook access, helping assess the welfare consequences of the increase in protests. On the negative side, we find no effects on regime change, democratization or governance. To explain this result, we show there are no effects on other political engagements, especially during critical periods, and that social media access also helps mobilize citizens against opposition groups, especially in less democratic areas. On the positive side, we find that Facebook access decreases internal conflict, with evidence that this reflects increased visibility deterring violence and that social media and the resulting protests help voice discontents that might otherwise turn more violent. Keywords: Collective action, Protests, Social media, Facebook JEL Classification: D70, L82, D80 ∗We thank Daron Acemoglu, Levi Boxell, Andreu Casas, Filipe Campante, Emilio Depetris-Chauvin, Stefano DellaVigna, Oendrila Dube, Ruben Enikolopov, Marcela Eslava, Kelley Friel, Lisa George, Victoire Girard, Philip Keefer, Rachid Lajaaj, Horacio Larreguy, Daniel Lederman, Luis Roberto Mart´ınez,M´onica Martinez-Bravo, Maria Petrova, Pablo Querub´ın,James Robinson, Shanker Satyanath, Jake Shapiro, Joshua Tucker, Austin Wright, Ekaterina Zhuravskaya and seminar participants at the Harvard-MIT Positive Po- litical Economy Seminar, Princeton University ESOC Lab Meeting, New York University, the University of Chicago, Universidad de los Andes, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, the NYC Media Seminar-Columbia Univer- sity and Hunter College (CUNY), the World Bank Office of the Chief Economist for Latin America, the Households in Conflict Network at the Paris School of Economics, NOVA School of Business and Economics, Lacea's 2016 Annual Meeting, and the 2021 ASSA Annual Meeting. Juan Camilo Yam´ınprovided excellent research assistance. yUniversidad de los Andes, Department of Economics, Cra 1 No 18A - 12 Bogot´a,Colombia. E-mail: [email protected] zMassachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Economics, 50 Memorial Drive, Cambridge, MA 02142. E-mail: [email protected] Facebook produce protestas∗ Leopoldo Fergussony Carlos Molinaz Resumen Usando el lanzamiento de Facebook en un lenguaje como una fuente de variaci´on ex´ogenaen el acceso a las redes sociales donde se habla dicho lenguaje, mostramos que Facebook ha tenido un impacto positivo, significativo y considerable en protestas. Al explotar la variaci´onen una gran muestra de pa´ısesdurante cerca de 15 a~nosy combinar informaci´onagregada e individual, confirmamos la validez externa de inves- tigaciones previas que documentan este efecto para contextos espec´ıficosa lo largo de una serie de dimensiones: geogr´aficamente, por tipo de r´egimen,a lo largo del tiempo, y para diferentes caracter´ısticassocioecon´omicasde los pa´ısesy los usuarios de las re- des sociales. Encontramos que los efectos de \coordinaci´on"basados en la naturaleza \social" de las redes sociales juegan un papel importante m´asall´ade transmisi´onde in- formaci´onunidireccional, y que estos efectos tambi´enreflejan un \efecto de liberaci´on" producido por tener un medio para expresar opiniones y compartirlas con otros. Fi- nalmente, exploramos las consecuencias pol´ıticasm´asamplias de un mayor acceso a Facebook, ayudando a evaluar las consecuencias sobre el bienestar del aumento de las protestas. Por el lado negativo, no encontramos efectos sobre el cambio de r´egimen, la democratizaci´ono la gobernanza. Para explicar este resultado, mostramos que no hay efectos en participaci´onpol´ıtica, especialmente durante per´ıodos cr´ıticos, y que el acceso a las redes sociales tambi´enayuda a movilizar a los ciudadanos contra los grupos de oposici´on,especialmente en ´areasmenos democr´aticas.Por el lado positivo, encontramos que el acceso a Facebook disminuye los conflictos internos, con evidencia de que esto refleja una mayor visibilidad que disuade la violencia y que las redes so- ciales y las protestas resultantes ayudan a expresar el descontento que de otro modo podr´ıavolverse m´asviolento. Palabras Clave: Acci´oncolectiva, Protestas, Redes sociales, Facebook Clasificaci´onJEL: D70, L82, D80 ∗Agradecemos a Daron Acemoglu, Levi Boxell, Andreu Casas, Filipe Campante, Stefano DellaVigna, Emilio Depetris-Chauvin, Oendrila Dube, Ruben Enikolopov, Marcela Eslava, Kelley Friel, Lisa George, Victoire Girard, Philip Keefer, Rachid Lajaaj, Horacio Larreguy, Daniel Lederman, Luis Roberto Mart´ınez, M´onicaMartinez-Bravo, Maria Petrova, Pablo Querub´ın,James Robinson, Shanker Satyanath, Jake Shapiro, Joshua Tucker, Austin Wright, Ekaterina Zhuravskaya y participantes de los seminarios: Harvard-MIT Positive Political Economy Seminar, Princeton University ESOC Lab Meeting, New York University, the University of Chicago, Universidad de los Andes, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, the NYC Media Seminar- Columbia University and Hunter College (CUNY), the World Bank Office of the Chief Economist for Latin America, the Households in Conflict Network at the Paris School of Economics, NOVA School of Business and Economics, Lacea's 2016 Annual Meeting, y the 2021 ASSA Annual Meeting. Agradecemos la excelente asistencia de investigaci´onde Juan Camilo Yam´ın. yUniversidad de los Andes, Department of Economics, Cra 1 No 18A - 12 Bogot´a,Colombia. E-mail: [email protected] zMassachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Economics, 50 Memorial Drive, Cambridge, MA 02142. E-mail: [email protected] 1 Introduction Has the worldwide diffusion of social media increased collective action globally? If so, what have been the broader political implications? The Arab Spring coincided with the expansion of information technologies, creating a widespread perception that social media helped bring about the popular uprisings against authoritarian regimes. The press also cites social media as a critical factor in explaining more recent protests, from the 2019 waves across diverse political regimes (Economist, 2019) to the Capitol Riots during the 2021 US presidential transition (Brewster, 2021). While journalistic accounts may exaggerate the real impact of these technologies (Aday et al., 2010; Farrell, 2012), careful academic research has confirmed the causal effect of social media on protests. Nevertheless, the best available evidence is limited to specific contexts and political junctures and, in particular, to non-democratic regimes or weak democracies. How generalizable are these impacts? When and where do protest movements respond to social media? What mechanisms might explain the influence of social media
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