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Assessing Storm Surge Hazard and Impact of Sea Level Rise in the Lesser Antilles Case Study of Martinique

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Assessing Storm Surge Hazard and Impact of Sea Level Rise in the Lesser Antilles Case Study of Martinique Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1559–1571, 2017 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1559-2017 © Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique Yann Krien1, Bernard Dudon1, Jean Roger1,2, Gael Arnaud1, and Narcisse Zahibo1 1LARGE, Laboratoire de Recherche en Géosciences, Université des Antilles, Guadeloupe, France 2G-Mer Etudes Marines, Guadeloupe, France Correspondence to: Yann Krien ([email protected]) Received: 17 April 2017 – Discussion started: 25 April 2017 Revised: 20 July 2017 – Accepted: 3 August 2017 – Published: 18 September 2017 Abstract. In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from and are expected to continue to do so in many areas world- hurricane-induced storm surges pose a great threat to lives, wide because of coastal population growth (Neumann et al., properties and ecosystems. Assessing current and future 2015) and climate change impacts (sea level rise, SLR; dete- storm surge hazards with sufficient spatial resolution is of rioration of protected marine ecosystems; potential increase primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers in the frequency of extreme events; etc.). It is therefore nec- develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use essary to better assess current and future storm surge hazards wave–current numerical models and statistical methods to in- to help decision makers regulate land use in coastal areas and vestigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for develop mitigation strategies. the case study of Martinique under present climate or consid- The Lesser Antilles are the first islands on the path of ering a potential sea level rise. Results confirm that the wave hurricanes that originate off the west coasts of Africa and setup plays a major role in the Lesser Antilles, where the strengthen during their travel across the warm waters of the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts tropical Atlantic Ocean. They are therefore regularly exposed of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. to extremely severe winds and waves causing great human The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to and economic losses. In the center of the Lesser Antilles the total surge – up to 100 % in some cases. The nonlinear in- Archipelago lies Martinique, a French insular overseas re- teractions of sea level rise (SLR) with bathymetry and topog- gion which shares similar characteristics with neighboring is- raphy are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique lands, such as a relatively narrow island shelf, fringing coral but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas reefs, mangrove forests, numerous bays and contrasted slope where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared morphologies. to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the Although Martinique has been relatively spared over the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge last decades compared to other islands such as Dominica or warning systems in the Lesser Antilles and encourage cau- Guadeloupe, it still largely suffered from massive destruc- tion when using static methods to assess the impact of sea tion in coastal areas due to hurricanes passing nearby (Du- level rise on storm surge hazard. rand et al., 1997; Pagney and Leone, 1999; Saffache, 2000; Léone, 2007; Duvat, 2015). A recent example is hurricane Dean (category 2), which struck the island in 2007, caus- ing severe damages, especially along the exposed east coast 1 Introduction (Barras et al., 2008). About 15 years ago, the French national meteorologi- Coastal urbanization and industrialization in storm-surge- cal service delivered a preliminary map of 100-year surge prone areas pose great challenges for adaptation and mitiga- heights in Martinique (Météo France, 2002). These early re- tion. Human and economic losses due to water extremes have sults were of great interest and have been used extensively considerably increased over the last decades (WMO, 2014) Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 1560 Y. Krien et al.: Storm surges and sea level rise by coastal planners since then (Grau and Roudil, 2013). At A large part of the population has been living close to the time, however, wave–current interactions were not taken the shoreline for centuries, for historical or economic rea- into account, although waves were already known to have sons, such as military defense or fishing activities (EPRI, a strong impact on surges in coastal areas (e.g., Wolf et al., 2012). This trend is being accentuated with the develop- 2011; Brown et al., 2011). Water levels were thus expected ment of tourism infrastructures since the 1960s (Desarthe, to be underestimated, especially in areas exposed to waves. 2014). The number of tourists has tripled since 1995, even Over the past few years, significant progress has been though the sector has undergone a deterioration recently (De- made in developing wave–current coupled models (e.g., Di- hoorne et al., 2014). Coastal zones are now highly coveted etrich et al., 2012; Roland et al., 2012; Kumar et al., 2012; Qi and densely populated areas (Garnier et al., 2015), which et al., 2009; Bennis et al., 2011; Dutour Sikiric et al., 2013), are prone to natural hazards such as erosion, storm surges but no attempt has been made so far to improve storm surge or tsunamis (e.g., Poisson and Pedreros, 2007). The Bay of hazard assessment in Martinique. The preliminary results are Fort-de-France has been identified as a particularly vulnera- thus still largely used as a reference by decision makers, and ble area by the French government services, in the framework recent works investigate the impacts of historical events (e.g., of the EU Floods Directive (PGRI, 2014). Indeed, this rela- Barras et al., 2008) or the ability of numerical models to re- tively low-lying zone concentrates a great part of the indus- produce extreme water levels and inland flooding (Nicolae try, services and transport infrastructures (highway, airport, Lerma et al., 2014). etc.). In addition, the mangrove forest of Lamentin (Fig. 1b) The potential impacts of climate change have also received is one of the largest remaining mangroves of the Caribbean little attention. Although the effect of a warmer climate re- and an important ecological area supporting a great variety mains relatively uncertain in terms of hurricane activity in of animal species. the North Atlantic (e.g., Knutson et al., 2010), a significant Martinique is regularly affected by severe storms: about increase in sea level is expected in the Lesser Antilles in the one hurricane every 10 years on average, according to the coming decades (Palanisamy et al., 2012). Moreover, coastal data provided by NOAA’s Office for Coastal Management ecosystems such as mangroves, coral reefs or seagrass beds (Fig. 2). Fortunately, it has been relatively spared over the may not be able to adapt to climate change (e.g., Waycott past decades compared to neighboring islands such as Do- et al., 2009; Wong et al., 2014), which could have large im- minica or Guadeloupe, with only one hurricane making land- pacts on coastal flooding (e.g., Alongi, 2008; Wong et al., fall on the island since 1900 (Fig. 2). The main histori- 2014). cal hurricane event is probably the hurricane that hit Mar- Here we investigate storm surge hazard in Martinique tinique in 1780, resulting in about 9000 fatalities (Saffache in greater detail and derive more accurate 100-year surge et al., 2002). More recently, Dean (a category 5 hurricane heights and maximum surge levels, using state-of-the-art nu- that passed Martinique as a category 2 storm in 2007) caused merical models and the statistical-deterministic approach of very extensive damage to the urban areas close to the coast Emanuel et al. (2006). We also conduct preliminary tests to as well as severe coastline erosion (Barras et al., 2008). Sig- investigate the impact of sea level rise (SLR) in the follow- nificant destructions also arose in recent years because of en- ing decades. The present paper is organized as follows: after ergetic swells generated by hurricanes traveling eastward in a short presentation of the study area (Sect. 2), we describe the Caribbean Sea (e.g., Omar in 2008 or Lenny, 1999). The the methodology (Sect. 3) and the numerical model (Sect. 4). reflective Caribbean coast is particularly exposed to this type The results are shown in Sect. 5. The limitations of this study of event. and material for further research are given in Sect. 6. The Marine ecosystems such as coral reefs or mangroves are main conclusions can be found in Sect. 7. known to provide substantial protection against waves and surges during hurricanes (e.g., Ferrario et al., 2014). In Mar- tinique, however, mangrove forests have at least partially de- 2 Study area teriorated due to earthworks, water and soil pollution, or hur- ricanes (e.g., Imbert and Migeot, 2009). The situation is even Located in the center of the Lesser Antilles (Fig. 1a), Mar- worse for coral reefs, for which a dramatic decline due to eu- tinique is a French mountainous island of about 390 000 in- trophication, anthropogenic disturbances or extreme storms habitants, with a remarkable variety of coastal environments has been observed over the past 40 years (Bouchon and La- (mangroves, cliffs, sandy coves, coral reefs, highly urban- borel, 1986; Legrand et al., 2008; Rousseau et al., 2010; ized areas, etc.) and contrasted sea bottom morphologies. IFRECOR, 2016). The deterioration of these marine ecosys- The Atlantic coast is characterized by barrier and fringing tems because of climate change is thus a cause of major con- coral reefs, as well as a gently dipping dissipating shelf pro- cern for the coming decades.
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