Preliminary Evaluation of Data for Reasonable Progress

PreliminaryPreliminary EvaluationEvaluation ofof DataData forfor ReasonableReasonable ProgressProgress

MontanaMontana RHRH FIPFIP LaurelLaurel DygowskiDygowski,, EPAEPA RegionRegion 88 IWGIWG MeetingMeeting –– AprilApril 20072007 Mandatory Class I Areas

Anaconda-Pintlar Wilderness 157,803 USDA-FS Area Bob Marshall Wilderness 950,000 USDA-FS Area Cabinet Mountains 94,272 USDA-FS Wilderness Area Gates of the Mtn Wilderness 28,562 USDA-FS Area Glacier NP 1,012,599 USDI-NPS Medicine Lake Wilderness 11,366 USDI-FWS Area Mission Mountain Wilderness 73,877 USDA-FS Area Red Rock Lakes Wilderness 32,350 USDI-FWS Area. Scapegoat Wilderness Area. 239,295 USDA-FS Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness 251,930 USDA-FS Area{1} U. L. Bend Wilderness Area 20,890 USDI-FWS Yellowstone NP{2} 167,624 USDI-NPS Distribution of Aerosol Light Extinction for 20% Worst Days for Federal Class I Areas in Montana

80.0

70.0

60.0 Sea Salt

50.0 Coarse Soil 40.0 Elemental Carbon

30.0 Organics Nitrate 20.0 Sulfate

10.0

0.0 Cabinet Gates of the Glacier Medicine Bob Selway- UL Bend Mountains Mountains National Lake Marshall, Bitterroot, Park Mission Anaconda- Mountains, Pintier Scapegoat •Class I Areas in the west are dominated by organics. •Class I Areas in the northeast have a relative higher contribution from sulfates and nitrates Monture (MONT1) - IMPROVE Monitor for – Bob Marshall, Mission Mountains, and Scapegoat – USFS Wilderness Areas Improve Data – Baseline and Natural Conditions – Default Natural Conditions

2000-2004 baseline for worst days – 14.48dv Default Natural Conditions – 7.33dv Improve Data – Baseline and Natural Conditions – New Equation

• Natural Conditions with new equation – 7.74 • 6.74 deciview change to needed to reach natural conditions UniformUniform RateRate ofof ProgressProgress

EPAEPA RegionRegion 88 plansplans onon usingusing newnew calculationcalculation ofof naturalnatural conditionsconditions (7.74dv)(7.74dv) 1.2dv1.2dv reductionreduction toto bebe onon glideslopeglideslope forfor firstfirst fivefive planningplanning periodsperiods .74.74 reductionreduction inin 66th planningplanning periodperiod Best and Worst Days - Trends

• Best Days Average – 3.85 dv • Worst Days Average – 14.48 dv Species Contribution Average over Baseline

• Best Days – Organics and sulfates are highest contributors • Worst Days – Organics heavily dominate species contribution Species Contribution By Year Baseline & natural conditions worst 20% species Baseline & natural conditions best 20% species Monture Light Extinction, Baseline and Estimated and Default Natural

15 2001-2004 Baseline Natural (best estima 10 Natural (EPA Defau 5

0 Nitrate Sulfate Coarse Elemental Organic Soil

Worst 20% Light Extinction (Mm-1) Extinction Light 20% Worst Mass Carbon Carbon Monture Controllable Light Extinction on 20% Worst Days for Base Period

Coarse MassElemental Nitrate Sulfate 4% Carbon 1% 9% 1% Organic Carbon 5%

Soil 2%

Natural 78% CAMx PSAT Attribution of Nitrate at Monture for 20% Worst Days for Base Period

WY-MV ID-Nat 1% 1% MT-AF All Others 2% 11% OR-MV MT-MV 2% WY-PT 25% 2% ID-Area 2% MT-Area Note: If boundary conditions 2% originate from these source MT-Nat categories, each category's 3% impact must be scaled up by 100/72 = 1.3. CAN-Area 3% CAN-PT 3% WA-MV BC-PT 5% 23% CAN-MV ID-MV 5% MT-PT 5% 6% CAMx PSAT Sulfate Attribution at Monture for 20% Worst Days for Base Period (Excluding Boundary Conditions)

CO AZ NM MEX SD 1% 2% UT EUS0% 0% 1% 0% CEN 1% 3% CA 2% ID ND 3% 3% CAN 33%

PO 6%

WY 6%

OR 6%

MT WA 16% 15% CAMx PSAT Attribution of Sulfate at Monture for 20% Worst Days for Base Period

All Others Note: If boundary condition OR-PT 15% sulfate comes 2% from these categories, double MT-Area the contribution 1% MT-MV of these categories. For 2% example, Montana WA-MV contributions would double from 2% 6% to 12%. PO-Area If, however, boundary BC-PT 2% conditions are indicative WY-PT 48% of natural and international 2% MT-PT 3% impacts, the contributions shown may be CAN-Area indicative of the 3% true impact. WA-PT 4% CAN-PT ID-Nat 12% 4% CAMx PSAT Sulfate Attribution at Monture for 20% Worst Days for Base Period (Excluding Boundary Conditions)

UT EUS AZ SD MEX CEN 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% CO 3% NV CA 1% 2% 1% ND 3% CAN NM ID 33% 0% 3% PO 6%

WY 6%

OR 6%

MT WA 16% 15% Sources and Areas of Potential Sulfur Oxide Emissions Influence 2018 Projections for UL Bend, MT 20% Worst Visibility Days