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WILDLIFE IN A WARMING WORLD The effects of climate change on in WWF’s Priority Places Acknowledgements Underpinning Research on the Impacts of Climate Change CONTENTS on Biodiversity: Jeff Price, Rachel Warren and Amy McDougall (Tyndall Centre and School of EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia), Jeremy VanDerWal THE RESEARCH 11 (James Cook University, Australia) and Stephen Cornelius, Heather Sohl WWF PRIORITY PLACES 12 and Niki Rust (WWF-UK) METHODOLOGY 14 Report production: Barney Jeffries, Evan Jeffries (www.swim2birds.co.uk) and FINDINGS 19 Katherine Elliott (WWF-UK)

Report design: Matt PRIORITY PLACE SNAPSHOTS (madenoise.com) AMAZON AND GUIANAS 20 Journal reference: Warren, R, Price, J, VanDerWal, J, Cornelius, S, AMUR-HEILONG 22 Sohl, H. The implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on Climate Change for Globally COASTAL EAST 24 Significant Biodiversity Areas. Climatic Change, 2018. MADAGASCAR 26

Date of publication: March 2018 MEDITERRANEAN 28 Further information: MIOMBO WOODLANDS 30 wwf.org.uk/wildlife-warming-world

Cover image: SOUTH-WEST AUSTRALIA 32 © naturepl.com / Juan Carlos Munoz / WWF YANGTZE 34 About WWF-UK At WWF, we want a world with a future where people and wildlife can thrive. We’re finding GLOBAL OUTLOOK 36 ways to help transform the future for the world’s wildlife, rivers, and seas in CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONSERVATION ACTION 40 areas we regard as particular priorities. We’re pushing for the reduction in carbon emissions needed to avoid catastrophic climate change. CONCLUSIONS 42 And we’re pressing for measures to help people live sustainably, within the means of our one RECOMMENDATIONS 43 amazing . © RICHARD BARRETT / WWF-UK 4 WILDLIFE IN A WARMING WORLD 5

if average global temperature rises • Dispersal can make are kept to 2°C above pre-industrial a massive difference EXECUTIVE SUMMARY levels. Maximum temperatures far To survive, and higher than past extremes, lower confronted with climate change need Manmade climate change is real, it’s rainfall and longer droughts are also to adapt within their environment, or happening now, and it’s among the greatest expected in many places. move elsewhere. Some may be able to survive by tracking their challenges we face on planet Earth. • We’ll need stronger climate favoured climatic conditions and mitigation efforts if we’re to dispersing into new areas. However, avoid severe loss of biodiversity this movement poses significant While the Paris Agreement aims to challenges as suitable to move limit the average global temperature into may not exist, or may already Many decades of burning fossil fuels, rise to well below 2°C (aiming for have been converted into agriculture coupled with rampant , This report summarises a ground- 1.5°C), current national climate or another -use incompatible are having an undeniable impact on breaking research project from WWF, pledges set us on a course to around with that species’ survival, and there our home. which we carried out in partnership 3.2°C of warming, and ‘business as may also be barriers to dispersal such with experts from the Tyndall Centre usual’ would mean a rise of 4.5°C. as mountain ranges. So there’s a huge In all regions of the world we’re for Climate Change at the University As the temperature rises, so does the amount of work to do on the ground seeing yesterday’s theoretical dangers of East Anglia. Our findings result proportion of species at risk. With to realise its potential benefits for becoming today’s new reality: the from the most comprehensive global 4.5°C of warming, almost 50% of the biodiversity. Without the ability to effects of global warming are already analysis to date of projected changes species currently found in Priority disperse, the proportion of species measurable, they’re bad, and they’re in the climatic ranges of plants and Places are at risk of local exposed to local at a 2°C going to get worse. animals, and they paint a startling – but if temperature rises are limited global temperature rise increases picture of the link between global to 2°C this risk is halved, underlining from 20% to around 25%. Under a From rising sea levels to retreating temperatures and the status of wildlife the importance of urgent action to cut worst-case scenario of no dispersal , from increasingly frequent and around us. greenhouse-gas emissions. at 4.5°C, that figure jumps from 40% and severe events to 50%. to warmer oceans, the environmental The research looks at the projected • Even a 2°C rise will lead to consequences of higher global impacts of a range of warming widespread biodiversity losses • Conservation efforts are crucial temperatures are playing themselves scenarios on different species groups Even with an average global Climate change adds to the existing out around us. Meanwhile, in 35 ‘Priority Places’ for conservation. temperature rise limited to 2°C, many pressures – such as habitat loss, societies – particularly in the These regions contain some of Priority Places are projected to lose a and unsustainable developing world – are already the richest and most remarkable significant proportion of their species harvesting – that are already putting counting the cost. In some areas, biodiversity on the planet, including as the climate becomes unsuitable for species populations under huge security is diminishing, many iconic, endangered and endemic them. Under a 2°C scenario, almost strain. Redoubled local conservation dwindling and there have species. While the results vary, some 25% of species in Priority Places are efforts will be needed to strengthen been increases in heat-related deaths. key themes emerge: at risk of local extinction. Plants are species’ resilience to climate change, projected to be particularly badly to protect and restore biological Even with the commitment shown by • Today’s extremes are hit, because they are often unable to corridors that support dispersal, and the nations of the world in reaching the tomorrow’s new normal adapt quickly enough to a changing to secure those areas that will remain Paris Agreement on climate change in Extreme hot and dry years in the climate – which in turn may have a as suitable habitat – known as 2015, we can expect a lot more damage past have often led to significant knock-on effect on other species that ‘refugia’ – even as temperatures rise. from climate change in future. population declines. In many Priority depend on them. Places, average seasonal temperatures And there’s something else we are projected to exceed those only may see too: these environmental previously experienced in the very impacts leading to enormous losses hottest of the last 50 years – in some of biodiversity on every continent and cases this could happen as early as across all species groups. 2030. This is likely to occur even 6

Biodiversity has intrinsic value, and the loss of wildlife from the world’s most remarkable natural places impoverishes us all. In some instances, there are clear THE FUTURE OF BIODIVERSITY economic and social implications – the local extinction of charismatic species can wipe out potential opportunities, while an endemic that fails to keep up with a rapidly changing climate may take IS IN OUR HANDS. WHAT HAPPENS with it a potential medical breakthrough. But the costs of on the scale we could NEXT IS UP TO US. be seeing over the coming decades go far beyond this. This is not simply about the disappearance of certain species from particular places, but about profound changes to ecosystems that provide vital services to hundreds of millions of people. If we’re to avoid this, we need a concerted global response that centres on four things:

We must cut global greenhouse-gas emissions • We need deep cuts to global greenhouse-gas emissions, consistent with and improving on the pledges already made under the Paris Agreement. There’s no way this can be achieved without a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels – particularly coal, but also oil and gas.

Conservation planning needs to consider climate change • Conservation planning needs to be based on projected future climatic conditions, with a particular focus on notably vulnerable or resilient areas. An emphasis on aiding species dispersal is critical; as is the promotion of green development that doesn’t put extra pressure on wildlife populations as the effects of a warmer climate worsen.

Further research is essential • We need to recognise that this area of study is relatively new: alongside on-the-ground action, scientists must keep on with their efforts to deepen our understanding of the changes we can expect to see – and we need to base our policies on the growing knowledge base they’re creating.

Awareness is key • Finally, people need to know and people need to care. Everyone has a role to play in spreading the word and getting involved. © ERIC BACCEGA / NATUREPL.COM 2°C TEMPERATURE RISE 50% If the global temperature rise SPECIES LOSS is limited to 2°C, less than 25% of species in Priority Places are If global temperatures rise by at risk of local extinction. 4.5°C, almost 50% of species in Priority Places are at risk of local extinction. PRESERVING FUTURE EXTREMES With a 2°C global temperature rise, 56% of the area of Even with the emissions Priority Places would remain cuts pledged under the Paris climatically suitable for Agreement, temperatures that species, up from 18% with were extreme in the past are a 4.5°C rise. set to be the new normal in all Priority Places. DISPERSAL CAN HELP At a 2°C global temperature rise, the risk of local extinction decreases from around 25% WARMING WORLD KNOCK-ON with no dispersal to 20% if Temperature increases have EFFECTS species can move freely. been observed for all seasons More than 50% of plants could across all WWF Priority Places be lost in some areas with over the past 50 years. higher temperature rises, which would have damaging effects for many other species. © BRENT STIRTON / REPORTAGE FOR GETTY IMAGES / WWF WILDLIFE IN A WARMING WORLD 11 THE RESEARCH Climate change is not a uniform phenomenon across the globe. Whichever way it progresses over the next century, its extent and effects will vary locally: some regions will warm more quickly than others, some habitats will be more severely affected than others, some species will be better able to tolerate a warming climate than others, and so on.

Our analysis targets WWF’s 35 There’s another important reason Priority Places around the world. We why our research has this localised performed detailed studies on each focus. The overriding message of using climate and then biodiversity the data is that we need to cut global modelling. These Priority Places carbon emissions as far and as fast as comprise a huge range of geographies, we possibly can. But, due to inertia climates, habitats and ecosystems, in Earth’s climate system and our and each one is particularly rich in historical emissions, the planet will be biodiversity. From the Amazon to the warming to some extent whether we Namibian , from the Himalayas like it or not. In fact, we are already to the Mediterranean, each is unique; seeing this change, with the last three while together they reflect the sheer years being the hottest on record. We breadth and variety of on Earth. need to take practical action to prepare for it. The detail of the results for each Biodiversity, too, is almost infinitely Priority Place helps us identify where varied. Our projections break it the regional priorities are, and how we down into five species groups: plants, can best direct our efforts to prepare , , amphibians and for the localised changes a warming reptiles. Each species is modelled climate will bring. separately, and in many Priority Places, levels of climate-related risks vary widely between groups. The detail of how, where and to what extent individual species are vulnerable to climate change will be an essential consideration in action plans for the future. © NATUREPL.COM / REINHARD / ARCO / WWF 12 WILDLIFE IN A WARMING WORLD 13

WWF’s Priority Places are 35 regions that contain the world’s most exceptional ecosystems and habitats. These regions have been scientifically identified as being WWF PRIORITY PLACES home to irreplaceable and threatened biodiversity, and/or present an opportunity to conserve the largest and most intact representation of their .

1 African Rift Lakes Region 2 Altai-Sayan Montane Forests 3 Amazon Guianas 4 Amur-Heilong 5 Arctic Seas 5 6 Atlantic Forests 7 Borneo 8 Cerrado-Pantanal 18 9 Chihuahuan 10 Choco-Darien 4 11 Coastal East Africa 2 12 Congo Basin 25 17 13 Coral Triangle 20 14 Eastern Himalayas 27 15 Fynbos 9 14 35 16 Galapagos 17 Greater Black Sea Basin 21 18 Lake Baikal 26 34 19 Madagascar 10 33 20 Mediterranean 7 21 Mekong Complex 16 3 12 1 32 13 24 22 Miombo Woodlands 8 11 31 23 Namib-Karoo-Kaokoveld 22 24 New Guinea & Offshore Islands 19 31 25 Northern Great 6 23 26 Orinoco River & Flooded Forests 30 27 South-eastern Rivers & 15 28 Southern Chile 28 29 29 Southern oceans areas 29 30 South-west Australia 29 31 South-west Pacific 32 Sumatra 33 Marine 34 Western Ghats 35 Yangtze Basin 29 14 WILDLIFE IN A WARMING WORLD 15

This method is based on our • A 4.5°C rise, corresponding to eight Priority Places – two of assumption that ecological a business as usual scenario, which are solely marine, and METHODOLOGY: CLIMATE systems are largely resilient to where no further efforts are six of which have both a marine temperature and precipitation made to curb emissions and and terrestrial part. changes that lie within the concentrations of greenhouse MODELLING AND BIODIVERSITY bounds of recently experienced gases continue to increase natural variability. unchecked. DISPERSAL AND ADAPTATION Our study models how the climate – expressed by two While collective global action important variables, temperature and precipitation – is First, we examined the natural We then took biodiversity data on climate is essential, variability in the climate for from the Wallace Initiative localised efforts to help species projected to change in the 35 Priority Places by the end of each of the Priority Places over Phase II, which has modelled survive in changing conditions the century. It then averages this climate data into three two historical 30-year periods the potential impacts of will also make a big positive 1 (1961-1990 and 1984-2013). climate change on nearly difference, and can help 30-year periods and models how species richness is Assessing changes in seasonal 80,000 species of plants, reduce local extinction rates. likely to change in response.2 temperature, precipitation, birds, mammals, reptiles and wet day frequency and cloud amphibians. As climatic conditions change, cover gave us a base range some species may evolve and against which to assess future By combining observed species adapt to new environmental changes – and allowed us to distribution data5 with research conditions while others will observe how temperatures on how each of these species adapt by moving their ranges are already increasing in the will be affected at different into areas that are more Priority Places. temperature increases, suitable for their continued we’ve been able to project an survival. For example, higher We then modelled three indication of how biodiversity altitudes tend to be cooler: as alternative climate scenarios may change in each Priority the temperature warms, some over the century3 – and hence Place under the climate mammals gradually move out different global average scenarios listed above. of the lowlands into the hills to temperature rises: track their preferred climate; • A 2°C rise, the upper This summary report contains or birds travel longer distances temperature limit of the a synthesis of results from the to new areas where previously Paris Agreement.4 terrestrial part of 33 Priority they would have struggled Places to explore general to thrive. Such movement, • A 3.2°C rise, an assessment trends for the five species or dispersal, is an important of the first set of Paris groups as the climate changes. natural adaptation strategy, Agreement pledges. In underlying research we also and it could also be supported looked at the marine part of by human effort.

REFUGIA

The name given to an area that remains For this study, we’ve defined a refugium 1 climatically suitable for some species as an area where 75% of the total number 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. 2 while other areas grow too hot, too dry or of species currently found in a given In methodological terms this study on how species respond to a changing climate uses bioclimatic modelling, as opposed to mechanistic models or traits-based analysis. too wet is a ‘refugium’, and it’s a central group in a Priority Place will still be 3 The scenarios were based on different representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for greenhouse gases concept in planning for the future. Some found under a changed climate: these are (these were used by the IPCC in its ffth Assessment Report (AR5)) and drew on 21 global circulation models Priority Places have large areas that remain therefore the areas where fewest species from the CMIP5 framework (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5). as refugia even at globally higher rates of risk local extinction. 4 The Paris Agreement aims to hold the global temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels warming; others much less so. and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. 5 © MARTIN HARTLEY / WWF At a spatial resolution of 20km x 20km. 16 WILDLIFE IN A WARMING WORLD 17

However, having the potential to The significance of dispersal varies RESEARCH LIMITS For example, Javan rhinos in the wild have been move into a new area isn’t the same as widely from region to region. In some pushed to the brink by many factors, from habitat actually getting there. That depends it makes little difference where species For each of our species groups a single loss and fragmentation to excessive . on the existence of viable ecological cannot move quickly. Elsewhere it dispersal rate is used. In reality some species Today, only a single, small population exists and corridors linking the habitats – and appears that or species will disperse faster or slower than the rate is threatened by , disease and today, is would be able to cope with some assumed. For example, some plant seeds that inbreeding depression. Without more effective occurring at unprecedented rates. amounts of warming provided they are dispersed by wind might be able to disperse conservation measures, breeding populations As for the habitats themselves, they can disperse. In some rare cases, they much faster, while a tree that only fruits every may reach a point where their ongoing viability depend on ecosystems maintaining might even increase in numbers if they five years will not be able to disperse as fast. is in doubt – but that’s before we even consider their viability in the face of increasing can colonise areas previously hostile to climate change. Clearly, a small population with pressure from unsustainable them where there will now be suitable Our analysis looks at readily available climate a limited gene pool will be less able to cope with exploitation, infrastructure, habitat and food. data, including average temperature and increasing pressures in its environment than a rising populations, unsustainable precipitation. However, it does not include larger, genetically diverse one. development, and a host of other Dispersal, though, is a gradual process climate impacts such as sea- and permafrost threats including climate change itself. and species’ ranges may only change dynamics, as these do not occur in every As for interactions with other species groups, by a few kilometres per decade or less. Priority Place. This means that our analysis in certain regions a high proportion of mammals In conservation terms, the challenge The two projections show no difference of the polar regions does not fully reflect the and birds are physiologically capable of tolerating is to look at each region in individual for plants, reptiles and amphibians reality of these places. higher temperatures. However, in those same detail and decide where and how as their typical dispersal rate only regions there may be a projected loss of a quarter action on the ground can make the allows them to move by a distance We know how natural systems have of all plant species in the event of a global average greatest contribution to maintaining that is smaller than the cell size in our responded to the variability in temperature 2°C rise – and in many regions this proportion biodiversity – to open wildlife study (20km x 20km). While there and precipitation historically and we assume goes above 50% at higher temperatures. A change corridors, to restore and conserve can be movements, they would be that this provides some information on on this scale will have a significant effect on habitats, to make sure that other relatively small compared to birds future impacts. However, higher latitudes habitats: species groups may lose plants they environmental threats are mitigated and mammals, meaning reptile and also typically experience larger inter-annual depend on for food so may need to switch from as far as possible. Our data mapping amphibian populations are more likely temperature fluctuations than many temperate their preferred diet, or they may find plants they exercise has provided material to help to be ‘overtaken’ by changes in their and tropical regions – that is, larger regional use for shelter disappear, so even though they guide these efforts. environments. If the current habitats warming is needed for the new temperature to might be able to cope with the warmer climate, for these species become climatically exceed historical extremes. For example, in the their long-term survival is by no means certain. For each global temperature scenario, unsuitable, we might have to Arctic average seasonal surface temperature we’ve looked at two alternatives in translocate populations of threatened can vary between 1.6°C and 4.3°C depending Similarly, the climate-linked disappearance of an each Priority Place. The first doesn’t species to refugia as a last resort, which on the season. This means that species apex predator could unbalance a complex food make any allowance for dispersal – it is likely to be costly and difficult. In vulnerability based on comparing temperature web beneath it, with a whole range of knock-on assumes the species are unable to many regions plant species face the envelopes may be underestimated in these effects. Or, by contrast, warmer temperatures move from their current location. The greatest losses as the climate warms, areas. While the species may have experienced could open some regions to new species that second assumes that dispersal can compared to animals. comparable temperatures before, past extremes join the long-time inhabitants in competition for take place at natural rates with no did not create the consistent low-ice conditions limited food resources, driving out weaker rivals. manmade (e.g. cities) or geographical that will severely constrain Arctic marine life in Projections of this kind are beyond the scope (e.g. mountain ranges) barriers to the future. of our research – but they do suggest that our impede this movement; and assumes figures are on the conservative side. there are suitable habitats to move Our results focus on how species groups are 6 into with adequate food to eat. The likely to respond to climatic factors alone. Our research contributes to a growing evidence difference between these alternatives The results don’t attempt to show how factors base on how species will be affected by climate enables us to see the benefit that that don’t relate to climate, such as disease or change. Because there are other ways to assess adaptation efforts to facilitate dispersal human-induced habitat loss, may also weaken species vulnerability to climate change, the results can bring. or strengthen the resilience of species as of this research should not be used in isolation. temperatures rise. We recommend they are used in conjunction with other species-specific studies. 6 There are three primary methods for assessing species’ vulnerability to climate change: correlative, mechanistic and trait-based. We’ve used correlative species distribution modelling to produce these results. The assumptions and limitations of this method are discussed in the literature, e.g. Elith & Leathwick 2009 and references therein. 19 FINDINGS There are two different ways of interpreting the results of our research.7

On the one hand, the data shows the regional impacts of global warming. We can see to what extent the range of species in each Priority Place is threatened under different climate scenarios, and we can see the potential benefits that regional adaptation to allow natural dispersal can bring. This provides crucial background for planning how and where we can most effectively devote resources towards conservation and adaptation.

At the same time, these local results combine to paint a larger global picture. While the 35 Priority Places are all very different, the collected results reveal some striking trends. They add powerful evidence that we urgently need global action to mitigate climate change.

PRIORITY PLACES: SNAPSHOTS The next pages show a summary of our findings for eight of the 35 Priority Places, selected to provide a snapshot of the potential impacts for a diverse range habitats across the globe. While local conditions, topographies and species vary widely, the results make it clear that a changing climate poses a severe threat to biodiversity all over the world.

7 A synthesis of our research and fndings has been peer reviewed and published in the

© BRENT STIRTON / REPORTAGE FOR GETTY IMAGES / WWF scientifc journal Climatic Change. 20

AMAZON AND GUIANAS PLANTS The Amazon is home to as many as 80,000 plant The Amazon’s ecosystems host around 10% of all species, many of which are endemic to the region. known species and play a crucial role in regulating These help regulate the global climate. the global climate and local water cycles, and sustain the ’s rich life. They Habitat: Tropical rainforest, OUTLOOK also provide food, fuel, flooded , rivers shelter and medicine for The Amazon is highly vulnerable to climate change. Even a people, including the 350 Climate: Hot tropical 2°C rise would make the new average temperature hotter than indigenous ethnic groups equatorial climate year- previous extremes, and would threaten more than one-third of who live in the Amazon. round. Average temperatures species in all groups in the absence of dispersal. A business as Many modern medicines projected to equal or exceed usual scenario would see this figure rise to around two-thirds. derive from rainforest historical extremes by the Plants fare badly across the board, while amphibians suffer the plants, so the loss of plant 2020s. worst of all. biodiversity could deprive us of future medical Average regional Adaptation efforts are critical here for birds and mammals, breakthroughs. Even the temperature increase: which could escape many of the worst effects of climate change lowest temperature rise if they are able to move to cooler areas – the Andes remain a modelled sees more than 1984-2013 refugium even at higher temperature rises. Connectivity needs 4 in 10 of all plant species +0.2°C to be at the centre of conservation plans. at risk of local extinction 1961-1990 by the end of the century, while under current emission pledges we can expect around 6 in 10 to disappear.

Figure 1: Percentage of species projected to be at risk of local extinction by the 2080s. The chart shows three different global climate change scenarios, modelling risk both with dispersal and no dispersal (‘+’ indicates a possible increase in richness due to colonisation by other species).

Global climate change scenario

2°C 3.2°C 4.5°C

No With No With No With Species group dispersal dispersal dispersal dispersal dispersal dispersal Plants 43 43 59 59 69 69

Birds 37 + 51 + 64 13

Mammals 36 0 50 10 63 30

Amphibians 47 47 62 62 74 74

Reptiles 35 35 48 48 62 62 © ADRIANO GAMBARINI / WWF LIVING AMAZON INITIATIVE / WWF-BRAZIL 22

AMUR-HEILONG

The huge steppes and temperate forests of this remote north-east Asian region shelter including and Amur leopards.

Habitat: Taiga, temperate OUTLOOK forest, steppe , Adaptation is the name of the in Amur-Heilong. In theory at least, resident mammal and bird species should be Climate: Varied, with physiologically capable of dispersing: the question is whether seasonal averages ranging from we can maintain the necessary connectivity between habitats in 15°C to -20.5°C. Half the region this vast region. If we can’t, then at currently pledged levels we is covered by permafrost. A 2°C risk losing a third of its mammals and nearly a fifth of its bird global rise would see average species. Climatic trends are already reshaping migration routes temperatures between June for large populations of species such as the Mongolian gazelle. and November become higher than current extremes. Despite the relatively lower vulnerability of Amur-Heilong’s animals, adequate habitats remain critical – and the change KOREAN PINE Average regional in plant species distribution is likely to affect existing habitats Korean pine is a temperature increase: significantly. particularly important tree in the region, and 1984-2013 provides a habitat for +0.6°C prey species for tigers 1961-1990 and leopards. However, climate modelling suggests that Korean pine stands will be replaced Figure 2: Percentage of species projected to be at risk of local extinction by the 2080s. The chart shows by oak and elm across three different global climate change scenarios, modelling risk both with dispersal and no dispersal large areas, particularly (‘+’ indicates a possible increase in richness due to colonisation by other species). in north-east . Some range contraction Global climate change scenario (12-44%) has also been projected by the 2030s. 2°C 3.2°C 4.5°C There’s some chance that No With No With No With the species may be able to extend its range north, but Species group dispersal dispersal dispersal dispersal dispersal dispersal it will depend on and Plants 20 20 32 32 42 42 the dispersal rate. Korean pine trees are long-lived, Birds 14 + 18 + 24 + but environmental stress Mammals 20 + 33 + 48 14 can lead to reduced cone formation and increase Amphibians 11 11 23 23 46 46 the risk of loss due to disturbance (e.g. fire, Reptiles 6 6 11 11 18 18

insects). © NATUREPL.COM / KONSTANTIN MIKHAILOV / WWF 24

COASTAL EAST AFRICA

The coastal regions of east Africa are among Africa’s most biologically diverse areas. But uncontrolled resource extraction, industrial agriculture and swift already threaten biodiversity there.

Habitat: Savannah OUTLOOK woodland, lowland forest, mangroves, coral reefs Coastal east Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change. Even at a global rise of 2°C, the area is projected to become climatically Climate: Hot. Average unsuitable for more than 25% of the biodiversity across most temperatures projected to species groups, with only reptiles faring slightly less badly. If global equal or exceed historical temperatures increase further, the situation quickly becomes extremes by the 2020s and worse: a 4.5°C rise would see about 7 out of 10 amphibians, 6 out AFRICAN ELEPHANT greatly exceed them by the end of 10 birds, 4 out of 10 reptiles and more than half of all mammal Water is crucial for African of the century. More droughts species analysed seriously threatened unless extensive adaptation elephants. They need to projected in future. efforts are made. In either case, 56% of plant species are at risk of drink 150-300 litres per local extinction. This would cause a radical change in habitats in day, as well as using it Average regional almost all areas that would be likely to affect other species groups. for playing and bathing. temperature increase: Hotter temperatures As for marine biodiversity, rising water temperatures will make and less – as well as 1984-2013 conditions less suitable for many species and may lead to coral a projected increase in +0.4°C bleaching. Other species are expected to colonise the area, leading periods of severe drought 1961-1990 to some changes in ecosystems. In some areas of the world marine – will have a direct effect are already altering their migratory routes and nesting sites: on elephant numbers. it remains to be seen how far this will enable them to keep up with Populations are limited continuing change. by water availability and fodder – they may have to Figure 3: Percentage of species projected to be at risk of local extinction by the 2080s. The chart compete with as shows three different global climate change scenarios, modelling the risks both with dispersal well as each other as these and no dispersal. resources become scarcer – and calf mortality Global climate change scenario increases in times of drought. 2°C 3.2°C 4.5°C

No With No With No With Elephants have some adaptive capacity, although Species group dispersal dispersal dispersal dispersal dispersal dispersal it’s not clear how far they’ll Plants 29 29 45 45 56 56 be able to keep up with the changing conditions. They Birds 34 7 50 17 62 30 behave differently when Mammals 33 6 45 6 51 5 temperatures rise, eating less and resting more, Amphibians 40 40 59 59 69 69 spending more time in the water and to Reptiles 22 22 33 33 42 42

cool down. © MARTIN HARVEY / WWF 26

MADAGASCAR Lemurs are found only in Madagascar. A 2015 Millions of years of isolation have mapped a unique study projected that 60% of the 57 species modelled evolutionary path for the plants and animals on the would have their ranges island of Madagascar – but they still face the threat reduced by a substantial of global climate change. amount (average 56.9%) by warming of 2-4°C.8 A minority – nine species Habitat: Rainforest, tropical OUTLOOK – could see their range dry forest, deserts, plateaux, increase, while the rest are mangroves, coral reefs Even if the global temperature rise is limited to 2°C, Madagascar likely to remain stable. is projected to become climatically unsuitable for more than a Climate: Mostly hot, but quarter of species across all groups. In the no dispersal business Three areas were widely varied conditions as usual scenario, this figure rises to well over half, with every identified as particularly from deserts to . single group severely threatened. Dispersal will help birds and important refugia for Temperatures have been stable mammals to some degree, but widespread policy interventions lemurs: the Masaloa in the past, meaning a rise of will be required to maintain the viability and connectivity of Peninsula, around the only 0.6-1°C will be enough for key habitats. Mangoky river, and an historical extremes to become area in the north-west the norm. Drier and less cloudy Geographical variation plays an important role. Generally including Ankarfantsika. seasons are projected. speaking, rising temperatures will initially have more impact in the drier southern part of the island than in the wetter forests 8 Shifting ranges and conservation Average regional of the north. As temperatures continue to rise, this spreads into challenges for lemurs in the temperature increase: face of climate change, Jason other areas, with central parts potentially becoming unsuitable L Brown and Anne D Yoder, for more than three-quarters of mammal species modelled. Ecology and Evolution, vol 5 1984-2013 issue 6. +0.4°C 1961-1990

Figure 4: Percentage of species projected to be at risk of local extinction by the 2080s. The chart shows three different global climate change scenarios, modelling risk both with dispersal and no dispersal.

Global climate change scenario

2°C 3.2°C 4.5°C

No With No With No With Species group dispersal dispersal dispersal dispersal dispersal dispersal Plants 25 25 42 42 54 54

Birds 28 14 44 28 57 40

Mammals 30 7 46 13 57 18

Amphibians 31 31 47 47 58 58

Reptiles 28 28 43 43 55 55 © EDWIN GIESBERS / NATUREPL.COM 28

MEDITERRANEAN

More than 300 million visitors each year put enormous strain on the remaining resources of this unique sea where three continents meet: it’s a region that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has identified as a climate impact hotspot. MARINE TURTLES The Mediterranean is Habitat: Ocean, coastline, OUTLOOK important for three Mediterranean and other species of marine : forest, mountains The Mediterranean is vulnerable even at lower levels of climate the leatherback, green change: if the rise is constrained to 2°C, almost 30% of most and loggerhead. They’re Climate: Warm summers, species groups are at risk, and more than a third of all plants. If seriously threatened by mild winters, with future the world doesn’t meet that limit, the situation becomes bleaker climate change. The main averages quickly expected to still: under currently pledged emissions reduction levels more issues are feeding and surpass past extremes. Most than half of all plant species and a third to a half of other species breeding grounds. climate models project less groups are projected to disappear. At business as usual levels, on precipitation and cloud cover average around half of the region’s biodiversity will be lost. Breeding could be affected in all seasons, making severe in two ways. First, the droughts more likely and Mammals and birds can adapt to some degree if they are able temperature of the sand increasing forest fire risk. to disperse – but this is a major challenge in a region where where turtles lay their habitats have already suffered significant degradation and eggs is a factor in the sex Average regional fragmentation. of the turtles that hatch. temperature increase: Typically, males come from eggs in the lower, 1984-2013 cooler part of the nest: +0.6°C increased temperatures 1961-1990 may result only in female hatchlings or, above a certain point, in none surviving at all. While Figure 5: Percentage of species projected to be at risk of local extinction by the 2080s. The chart shows female turtles may change three different global climate change scenarios, modelling risk both with dispersal and no dispersal. nest depth in response, it isn’t known whether Global climate change scenario this will be enough to compensate for the 2°C 3.2°C 4.5°C warming sand. No With No With No With Second, climate change Species group dispersal dispersal dispersal dispersal dispersal dispersal brings rising sea levels, Plants 36 36 55 55 69 69 higher tides and more extreme weather events. Birds 21 10 35 22 49 36 These can alter or destroy Mammals 29 16 45 30 60 45 turtle nesting sites, which are already rare and fragile, Amphibians 26 26 43 43 57 57 and could lead to local extinctions where breeding Reptiles 16 16 30 30 43 43

is no longer viable. WWF-UK / RENAISSANCE GREEN / CARAMANUS JONATHAN © 30

MIOMBO WOODLANDS AFRICAN WILD DOG African wild dogs are heat-sensitive, typically The Miombo woodlands cover much of central and southern hunting in the cooler periods of the day – so Africa. This 2.4 million sq km region is sparsely settled by hotter days potentially subsistence farmers. But with a swiftly growing population, mean shorter hunting it’s one of the Priority Places that’s most vulnerable to a periods and less food, which has the knock-on changing climate. effect of reduced pup survival. A 2°C increase Habitat: Tropical and OUTLOOK would contract its range, subtropical grasslands, while current climate Even a 2°C global rise will cause severe harm to wildlife in the savannahs, shrublands pledges could see it Miombo woodlands, and the higher projections are disastrous disappear from the region across all species groups. Such high impacts also strongly Climate: Widely varied, from almost entirely. Wild dogs suggest that the ecosystem as a whole will be severely affected, humid to semi-arid and tropical live in highly social packs potentially causing species further problems even if they remain to temperate. More frequent and are susceptible to suited to the climate itself. extreme weather events and various diseases – climate greater rainfall variability is change may increase will become increasingly important in the region’s expected to result in limited the spread of some , as it directly affects wildlife populations – the woodland productivity and wildlife diseases. degradation of . 14,600 sq km Hwange already relies on pumped waterholes to sustain more than 45,000 elephants, so strategic Wild dog populations Average regional placement and management of boreholes will be critical. are in decline globally. temperature increase: Wildlife connectivity routes between limited refugia are also As conflict for natural fundamental to future conservation, so key biodiversity areas resources, including water 1984-2013 and important bird areas are already being prioritised. and land, increases due +0.7°C to climate change, species 1961-1990 like African wild dogs are likely to face even more pressures in their struggle to survive. Figure 6: Percentage of species projected to be at risk of local extinction by the 2080s. The chart shows three different global climate change scenarios, modelling risk both with dispersal and no dispersal.

Global climate change scenario

2°C 3.2°C 4.5°C

No With No With No With Species group dispersal dispersal dispersal dispersal dispersal dispersal Plants 47 47 69 69 81 81

Birds 48 34 72 62 86 77

Mammals 45 35 67 56 80 68

Amphibians 54 54 79 79 90 90

Reptiles 50 50 69 69 81 81 © WILL BURRARD-LUCAS / WWF-US 32

SOUTH-WEST AUSTRALIA ROCK WALLABY Australia’s unique rock wallabies prefer rugged The south-western tip of Australia is one of the most terrain, and have feet that are specially adapted biodiverse regions on the continent, with many endemic to grip rock rather than species. It’s also one of the most vulnerable places in our dig into . They live in study as global temperatures continue to rise. rocky areas with caves and crevices where they can shelter from climatic Habitat: Mediterranean OUTLOOK extremes – but in general forests, woodland, scrub terms they’re threatened Even if the global mean temperature rise is constrained to 2°C, by a warming climate. Climate: In general, south-west Australia is projected to become unsuitable for They’re flexible eaters, the region has a cool 30-60% of species across all groups. Currently pledged levels consuming a wide range Mediterranean climate, with of emissions see half of all birds and reptiles, two-thirds of of shrubs, grasses and high rainfall and summer mammals, and nearly 80% of amphibians disappear. For plants, herbs. But their small drought. Increased drying is the figure at this level is 60%, which would radically change size and high metabolism projected in all seasons. ecosystems across the region. A business as usual scenario means that rock wallabies could be devastating for all species groups. Dispersal would need high-quality food Average regional improve matters slightly for birds and mammals, but even to survive. The structure temperature increase: with maximum dispersal the number of species projected to of the vegetation they disappear remains shockingly high. require will change 1984-2013 as temperatures rise: +0.3°C Sadly, Australia has already seen the world’s first extinction of as Australia’s interior 1961-1990 a mammal species probably due to climate change: the island- becomes increasingly arid, dwelling Bramble Cay melomys, a rodent, has been completely rock wallaby populations wiped out from its only known location following a series of are expected to become linked to rising sea levels. limited to coastal areas.

Rock wallabies live in colonies of 5-100 individuals. Habitat Figure 7: Percentage of species projected to be at risk of local extinction by the 2080s. The chart shows connectivity allows these three different global climate change scenarios, modelling risk both with dispersal and no dispersal. groups to disperse and mix to keep a healthy Global climate change scenario gene pool. But some researchers fear that 2°C 3.2°C 4.5°C increasing population fragmentation is limiting No With No With No With genetic variability, Species group dispersal dispersal dispersal dispersal dispersal dispersal reducing the ability of Plants 41 41 60 60 74 74 this species to cope with a changing climate. Birds 29 18 47 35 63 53

Mammals 47 33 67 53 81 71

Amphibians 58 58 78 78 89 89

Reptiles 38 38 55 55 71 71 © NATUREPL.COM / FRED OLIVIER / WWF 34

YANGTZE

Few regions in the world have changed faster than the richly diverse and complex Yangtze: unprecedented development and urbanisation present a serious conservation challenge.

Habitat: Mountains, forests, OUTLOOK river, wetlands The Yangtze appears moderately vulnerable to lower levels Climate: Warm summers and of climate change, with the impacts becoming increasingly cold winters are the norm. By severe at and above current pledges. If unrestricted dispersal mid-century, historical high can take place, mammals and birds fare reasonably well. GIANT PANDA temperatures are expected to However, unrestricted dispersal in this fast-developing region Current giant panda become the new average for all is a challenge – and without it, the numbers change markedly, habitats will become seasons, while climate models showing around one in three mammal and bird species warmer and drier as global generally project that most threatened at currently pledged levels. Plants look set to face temperatures rise (except seasons will become wetter. greater threats, which could have a knock-on effect on other for a few areas which may species groups if habitats and the availability of food plants become wetter), which Average regional are significantly altered. Even a 2°C rise puts almost a quarter is likely to make areas temperature increase: of plants at risk, and this rises to half of all plant species at north of their current business as usual levels. range more suitable for 1984-2013 +0.3°C habitation in future. 1961-1990 However, the bamboo on which they depend almost exclusively for their diet is unlikely to keep pace with a shift to higher Figure 8: Percentage of species projected to be at risk of local extinction by the 2080s. The chart shows latitudes and elevations. three different global climate change scenarios, modelling risk both with dispersal and no dispersal Along with further habitat (‘+’ indicates a possible increase in richness due to colonisation by other species). fragmentation and reduced dispersal, this could have Global climate change scenario serious consequences. Pandas – already 2°C 3.2°C 4.5°C notoriously slow breeders No With No With No With – may delay breeding or pause the development Species group dispersal dispersal dispersal dispersal dispersal dispersal of embryos if they’re not Plants 23 23 37 37 50 50 getting enough nutrition.

Birds 21 2 33 8 44 16 Another factor is that a Mammals 23 + 36 + 46 6 warming climate in China may open higher elevations Amphibians 18 18 29 29 41 41 to agriculture, putting giant panda habitats under Reptiles 15 15 23 23 32 32

increased pressure. © RICHARD BARRETT / WWF-UK 36 WILDLIFE IN A WARMING WORLD 37

THE BENEFITS OF DISPERSAL Likewise if the temperature rise is restricted to 2°C and dispersal can GLOBAL OUTLOOK The mitigation figures above come take place, the proportion of all species with a big caveat: they assume that groups across the Priority Places As we’ve seen, WWF’s Priority Places reflect the species are unable to adapt to the projected to become vulnerable to local amazing diversity of our planet. Each has its own new temperatures by naturally extinction is reduced to less than one- dispersing fast enough to track their fifth (19%), from a no-dispersal level character, its own species, its own adaptation preferred climate. of 24%. needs, and its own outlook. If we use the model which incorporates Creating viable ecological corridors this potential species dispersal, the is a huge conservation challenge in importance of adaptation becomes increasingly fragmented , clear. For example, if species can and this so-called ‘optimal dispersal’ is That said, it’s only when we compare THE BENEFITS OF MITIGATION adapt by spreading unaided then the unlikely to be achieved. And as we have trends across them all that the size business-as-usual climate case leaves A species is considered at risk from said before, it is harder for slower- and scope of the climate challenge two-fifths (40%) of all species groups climate change in a Priority Place if moving species groups such as plants, facing the international community across the Priority Places vulnerable the climate is projected to become amphibians and reptiles to disperse. becomes clear. to local extinction, down from 48% unsuitable for it to persist there. Our results show that dispersal has little with no dispersal. effect on these species groups because The datasets we’ve produced allow Cutting greenhouse gas emissions the size of the grid cells used in the us to compare the change in which – and hence limiting the rise in study is larger than the average distance locations will have suitable climate global temperatures – reduces the these species disperse. conditions and the knock-on effects projected local extinction of species across all of the Priority Places, and to from Priority Places enormously. If assess what global warming will mean the world continues on the business- for global biodiversity. as-usual pathway, and species are not able to disperse freely, then nearly This means there are two ways of half (48%) of all species groups across looking at the overall results under the Priority Places become vulnerable different scenarios: we can look at to local extinction. However, if we keep greenhouse-gas emissions low Figure 9: How we model dispersal. Species live where the climate is suitable for them to survive the percentage of species within the (A). As conditions warm, new areas may become suitable and areas previously suitable may different groups projected to disappear enough to stay on the 2°C pathway, the proportion of all species groups become too hot (B). Species may not be able to colonise all the new suitable area if the climate from Priority Places, and we can also moves faster than they can disperse into it (C). look at the amount of climatically across the Priority Places that become suitable space – refugia – projected vulnerable to local extinction is halved to just under a quarter (24%). to remain within them. In other A. Original distribution B. Maximum dispersal distance C. Final projected distribution words, we can see how habitats will change along with the biodiversity that As things stand, current country depends on them. pledges to cut greenhouse-gas emissions under the Paris Agreement The most important findings can’t suggest something between these be repeated often enough: global two outcomes: a 3.2°C rise in global biodiversity will suffer terribly over the temperatures would see around 37% next century unless we do everything of all species groups across the Priority we can – we must keep average Places becoming vulnerable global temperature rises down to to local extinction. the absolute minimum and through Key: Original distribution our conservation efforts we have to Habitat becomes unsuitable facilitate regional species adaptation. The more we look into the detail, the Habitat becomes suitable clearer this fact becomes. Maximum dispersal distance 38 WILDLIFE IN A WARMING WORLD 39

Figures 10 and 11 show the difference REFUGIA: WHAT WILL REMAIN? As we can see, a warming climate If species are able to disperse naturally that both mitigation of greenhouse greatly reduces the remaining areas then there are also significant benefits. gases and on-the-ground dispersal Looking at future refugia areas of refugia. Under the no mitigation, With dispersal, the no-mitigation make to future biodiversity across the under different climate scenarios business as usual projection, and with business as usual projection shows Priority Places. The worst-case scenario is an alternative way of quantifying no adaption by dispersal, then the that refugia persist over one-third of – of no mitigation and no dispersal – is the benefits of dispersal and mitigation average area of each Priority Place the area (33%), while in the 2°C case it the red dot at the top right of figure 10. – and as with biodiversity, both remaining as a refugium is less than a increases to two-thirds (66%). have a significant influence on the fifth (18%). These charts also include an additional projected results. scenario with a 2.7°C temperature However, keeping to a 2°C rise means rise – which is the lower projected We’ve analysed how much of the this figure increases dramatically – temperature rise based on countries area of each Priority Place remains even in the absence of dispersal, over delivering their initial pledges under a refugium under different climate three times more area (56%) acts as the Paris Agreement. change scenarios, and synthesised the a refugium. results in figure 11 below.

Figure 10: The average (across species groups and Priority Places) percentage local extinction risk Figure 11: Persistence of refugia in Priority Places with and without adaptation to allow dispersal. projected under different climate scenarios. The benefts of mitigation can be seen moving to the The fgure shows the average (across species groups and Priority Places) percentage of the area left (lower temperature rise) and the benefts of dispersal by comparing blue dots to red dots. of a Priority Place that is projected to act as refugia under different climate scenarios.

Key: Without dispersal With dispersal Key: Without dispersal With dispersal

50 100

45 90

Paris Agreement pledges 40 (high estimate) 80 No mitigation 35 business as usual 70

30 60 Paris Agreement pledges (low estimate)

2°C global rise 25 Paris Agreement pledges 50 (low estimate) 20 40 No mitigation business as usual 2°C global rise 15 30 Place and species groups (%) Place and species groups (%) Paris Agreement pledges (high estimate) 10 20

5 10 Average extent of refugia across terrestrial Priority Average local extinction risk across terrestrial Priority 0 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5

Annual global mean temperature rise above pre-industrial levels in the 2080s (°C) Annual global mean temperature rise above pre-industrial levels in the 2080s (°C) to adaptrisingtemperatures. WWF isalreadyworkingonprojectsallovertheworld CONSERVATION ACTION CLIMATE CHANGE AND sand temperaturescooler. We alsoplanttreesnearbeachestokeep to saferhighergroundwherenecessary. their nestingsites,andtranslocatingthem along thecoastofeastAfricabymonitoring WWF isworkingtoconservemarineturtles nest sites. this threatenstofloodtraditionalturtle marks gethigher–andinmanyinstances warmandsealevelsrise, hightide to laytheireggs, theycan’t reproduce. As of theirnestingsites: withoutanywhere seven speciesofmarineturtleistheloss One ofthebiggestdangersfacing OF THETURTLES TAKING CARE

laboratory and into thefield. application brings scienceoutofthe partnership’s emphasisonpractical of Bhutan’snationalparksystem. Our risk toenableinformedmanagement We’re developinginformationaboutclimate University’s CenterforClimate Research. partnership we’vecreatedwith Columbia a We’re supportingthiseffortthrough corridors inperpetuity. manage thecountry’sparksandwildlife called ‘Bhutan forLife’ to maintainand created aninnovativefundingapproach and thegovernmentofBhutanhave and agrowingpopulation. WWF by climatechange, rapidmodernisation natural resourcesarestillthreatened proportion inAsia. Butthecountry’s is protectedfornature–thehighest More thanhalfthelandinBhutan PROTECTED AREAS BOOSTING BHUTAN’S

only thebeginning… appeared tohavenofuture.And Belizeis now plantingthemonreefsthat previously nurseries fortheserobustvarieties. We’re profit FragmentsofHopeto create coral In Belize,we’veteamedupwith localnon- resilient, andcanrebuildstruggling reefs. some varietiesofcoralaremoreclimate- But wedon’thavetolookonhelplessly: most oftherestisgrim. ghostly graveyards,andtheoutlookfor colours. Manyhavebecomebleached, healthy andgivethemtheirwonderful away orkillingthealgaethatkeepthem temperatures andCO2levelsaredriving biodiverse ecosystems–butrisingocean Coral reefsarethehubsofhugely IN BELIZE REBUILDING REEFS

years tocome,andwhatdoaboutit. sea icehabitatislikelytochangeinthe We’re alsoresearchinghowpolarbears’ areas tosupportbiodiversityresilience. a pan-Arcticnetworkofmarineprotected Heritage site,anddevelopingavisionof potentially designatinganArcticWorld National MarineConservationArea, include creatingCanada’sLancasterSound national conservationpriorities.These expertise tohelpestablishlocaland measures arecritical.We’reusingour species tokeepup,soactivemanagement This isallhappeningfartoofastformany indigenous rightsarerecognised. become moreaccessibletoindustriesand swift increaseindevelopmentasareas are predictedwithin20years–asisa environmental change.Ice-freesummers sea levelsarealreadycausingprofound sea ice,meltingpermafrostandhigher twice theaverageglobalrate.Reduced Temperatures intheArcticarerisingat ACTION INTHEARCTIC

© ANTONIO BUSIELLO / WWF-US 42 WILDLIFE IN A WARMING WORLD 43 CONCLUSIONS RECOMMENDATIONS Climate change will inevitably affect DIRECT REGIONAL ACTION MORE DATA, BETTER SCIENCE biodiversity all over In every Priority Place, we must work We’re improving our knowledge all to increase the extent and integrity of the time, and more data will become the planet in the course protected areas and establish movement available as the effects of climate of the century. That’s corridors to connect protected areas change play themselves out. and climate refugia. Future protection a given. What’s less will need to account for and respond to It’s essential that we continue to certain at this stage is climate change if it is to contribute to scrutinise the way species and how much harm it will a restoration of . We may need ecosystems respond to extreme events to create new nature reserves in areas and climate variability, as well as ultimately cause – and currently outside the ranges of some monitoring other important indicators that’s something that we species, to act as future climate refugia such as disease. The more we and to increase connectivity between understand about the changes that are can and must influence. fragmented populations. And we’ll need taking place around us, the better able to create or strengthen buffer zones we’ll be to deal with them. Localised The most important thing the world around existing habitats to ensure vulnerability assessments and other can do is to keep global temperature populations are robust and ready to targeted research will enable us to plan rises to a minimum by doing everything withstand growing climatic pressure. more effectively what actions to take in possible to reduce the greenhouse preparation for future developments. gases in the atmosphere. Put simply, Wildlife will have to be allowed The feedback loops between species we have to stop burning fossil fuels. A adequate space to roam. International range shifts, ecosystem functioning, couple of degrees may not sound like borders will inevitably be crossed, food security and the climate need a huge margin, but the projected harm so conservation plans will need to be more research, but they’re becoming to biodiversity increases enormously approached multilaterally. clearer all the time, and this is a between the rise targeted under the growing source of knowledge we have Paris Agreement (well below 2°C and Refugia are particularly important: to build on. aiming for 1.5°C), and a business-as- we’re gaining a better long-term usual projection of 4.5°C. understanding of which areas in our We also need to collect weather data in Priority Places are the most significant areas where it’s not yet available: while If species are able to disperse for climate-linked conservation. This the Priority Places give a useful focus unimpeded, then a 2°C rise would see information has to inform priorities to our work, the issues they bring to around two-thirds of our Priority Place for future land-use planning. Activities light don’t simply stop at their borders. areas remaining as climatic refugia – that would have a negative impact on The climate challenge we face affects but a 4.5°C rise would reduce this to important habitats must be avoided. the entire globe and doesn’t sit within just one-third. neatly designated areas on a map, In cases where a species faces a high so we need ultimately to ensure that Mitigation really matters. However, risk of local extinction, we may need to we have enough data to act on in an even under a best-case mitigation consider translocating individuals and informed basis across the whole world. scenario, significant areas of the world sub-populations to climatic refugia as a will still become climatically unsuitable last resort. for many species. So it’s vital to ensure that we take a strategic approach to the challenge of localised adaptation, as this too has a critical role to play in maintaining biodiversity. © ANTONIO BUSIELLO / WWF-US 44

THE HUMAN DIMENSION SPREAD THE WORD, BUILD CAPACITY It’s about more than wild animals and The challenges ahead are way too big TOGETHER, WE CAN STILL BUILD plants: people are directly affected by for any one group to deal with – and climate change too, and their responses we all have a shared responsibility to could increase pressure on biodiversity care for our one planet. From global A FUTURE WHERE PEOPLE LIVE that’s already being weakened by unions and national executives right climatic factors. There’s still plenty down to individual communities and to learn on this front, but there’s a grassroots activists, everyone has a lot we can do to reduce the negative role to play in the struggle to preserve IN HARMONY WITH NATURE consequences of human actions. Earth’s biodiversity for our children and grandchildren. As communities face increasing climate-related hardships along with All adaptation is local and is best a host of other challenges, they may planned and implemented at the local change their behaviours in ways level. So alongside international efforts likely to have an increasingly negative to mitigate global temperature rises impact on wildlife. Agriculture, as far as possible – this is where the inefficient and poorly front line will be. But governments planned development can all cause have a critical role too, supporting and habitat loss and fragmentation, often enabling policies that allow meaningful harming ecosystem services. Conflict change; and coordinating - between people and wildlife is also level initiatives – and governments on the rise as habitats are encroached listen to their citizens. on for agriculture and settlement and human populations increase. It’s If we are care about our amazing likely that this conflict will increase planet, then we simply can’t ignore further as natural resources such the issues of climate change and as water, fodder and prey become biodiversity loss. Now is the time to scarcer. This could result in increased build understanding, capacity and crop and by wild commitment among colleagues, animals, and more wild animals killed supporters, decision-makers and by humans in response. hands-on doers the world over. Now is the time to get serious. Communities need to be given Together, as a species, we can do this. support and incentives to conserve the around them. Much can be done to promote more sustainable farming practices such as agroforestry, whether the aim is to increase yields or reduce ecosystem CLIMATE CROWD damage. It’s also essential that local WWF Climate Crowd (wwfclimatecrowd.org) wildlife adaptation efforts don’t come is a new initiative to rapidly crowdsource large at the expense of the needs of local amounts of data on how vulnerable communities communities. Alternative livelihoods are affected by changes in weather and climate, need nurturing and promoting, from how they’re coping with these changes, and what artisan crafts to low-impact forestry negative impacts their responses might be having and wildlife tourism. on biodiversity. We’re currently collaborating with a growing number of partners to collect and analyse this data, and to develop and support solutions to

help communities adapt to rapid change. WWF-UK / RENAISSANCE GREEN / CARAMANUS JONATHAN © WILDLIFE IN A WARMING WORLD • 2018 WWF.ORG.UK