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Lessons Learned from Typhoon Morakot: the Compound Disaster

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Lessons Learned from Typhoon Morakot: the Compound Disaster ___________________________________________________________________________ 2012/EPWG/WKSP1/007 Lessons learned from Typhoon Morakot: The Compound Disaster Event and the Role of QPE) / QPF Products in the Process of Emergency Response and Disaster Reduction Operation Submitted by: APEC Research Center for Typhoon and Society (ACTS) Training Course on Quantitative Precipitation Estimation/Forecasting Quezon City, Philippines 27-30 March 2012 Ben DrJong-Dao. Ben Jong Jou,-Dao Wen-Chau JOU 周仲島 Lee Chief Executive Officer, APEC Research Center for Typhoon and Society 27 March5 2012November at Manila, APEC 2008 QPE/QPF Taipei Workshop 08/08 08 08/09 08 ★ 08/07 08 ★ ★ ★ 08/06 08 08/05 08 ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★：Cente r Pos it io n at 08:00 ★：Center Position at 20:00 Typhoon monsoon interaction , slow movement, complex terrain 2 8/10 8/9 8/8 8/7 Chiayi Nantou Nantou Alishan Sinyi Jhuci Accumulated Chiayi Rainfall (mm) FFanlanlu 2800 2600 Dapu Kaohsiung 2400 Namaxia 2200 Tainan 2000 Taoyuan 1800 Pingggtung 1600 Taitung Jiasian 1400 Wutai Liouguei 1200 1000 Maolin 800 600 Cishan 400 300 200 100 Hard-hit 40 Area 3 In Jiasian Township of Kaohsiung County More than 400 died and many missing Mountain collapse, landslide, barrier lake and mudslide Buried Area Before After 1. Introduction of typhoon Morakot, A compound disaster event 2. Typhoon Morakot’s rainfall distribution, circulation and structure characteristics, and numerical model prediction 3. Issues discussion (new typhoon categorization scheme and warning mattil)erial) 4. Global climate change and the typhoon behavior, the challenges we are facing 6 Compound Disasters caused by typhoon Morakot (NCDR) 8/7 ~ 8/8 l and slid es in t he upstream 1 8/7 early morning rain started 2 in Jiaxian county 8/9 mountain collapsed and 6 buried Siaolin Village in the 8/8 Chivi bridge was broken morning in the downstream 3 8/8 floods occurred 4 ithin the coas titit cities a tihtt night 8/9 early morning downstream 5 Shuangyuan highway bridge broken 7 8/10 8/6 8/9 8/8 8/7 Daily rainfall maps from rain gauges Typhoon-monsoon interaction, atmospheric moisture transport at 925 hPa Convective Rain Clusters contains propagating and stationary modes, with moist monsoonal flow, and terrain enhancement KM Upstream horizontal rainbands persisted more than 15 hours UTC UTC about 01 UTC appear the feature ! Mosaic of DualDual--dopplerdoppler Wind - Typhoon Morakot (2009) Chang PL, Lin PF Typhoon rainfall prediction system C A D B F E WRF動力模式預報降雨 F區 300 1900 270 1710 Ac E c v ery 240 1520 cumulate ) F 3 ho 210 1330 長條 d ( urly accum rainfalla ) 量 180 1140 線 ( m ulated rain 150 950 ount in m 降雨 累積雨量 120 760 累積降 m m f f all in mm 90 570 去三小時累 過去 60 380 30 190 0 0 08/07 20 02 08 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 Ini: 09/08/07 08 LST Fcs:12~72 hr Summary (i(i)) 1. Interaction of slow-moving typhoon Morakot circulation with the complex terrains and enormous water vapor supply by the southwest monsoon are the major reasons for record breaking heavy rainfall in south Taiwan. 2. The high resolution numerical weather prediction system did ppyrovide valuable information for the event. To efficiently and confidently using model prediction products is an important step to a better preparation for the possible disaster event. Data and Model Integration for Emergency Operati on and R esponse i n CEOC/T ai pei (NCDR) Build Warning models Display Data collection data bank and update media Dynamidlic model Weather service QPESUMS for QPF 最大累積雨量(mm) 0 - 200 200 - 250 250 - 300 300 - 400 桃園縣 台北縣 400 - 500 >500 新竹縣 Climatology 宜蘭縣 苗栗縣 台中縣 彰化縣 雲林縣 花蓮縣 嘉義縣 台南縣 高雄縣 台東縣 N 屏東縣 W E S 0 30 60 Kilometers Slope land disaster potential 22.00 Dike Top Water Resource Agency 20.00 Flood/slope land 18.00 1st Stage Warning Water Level 16.00 ge (m) ge aa 2nd Stage Warning Water Level St 14.00 3rd Stage Warning Water Level hazard maps 12.00 10.00 28-07-2008 11:00 28-07-2008 14:00 28-07-2008 17:00 28-07-2008 20:00 28-07-2008 23:00 28-07-2008 02:00 29-07-2008 05:00 29-07-2008 08:00 29-07-2008 11:00 29-07-2008 14:00 29-07-2008 17:00 29-07-2008 20:00 29-07-2008 23:00 29-07-2008 Time (hr) 人口密度 低收入戶分布 Flood potential and update 對數單位面積家戶損失 = - 2.060+ 1.269 (對數 淹水高度) - 1.271 (房屋為自有) 物理易損性 社會易損性 + 0.134 (對數 淹水次數) 單位淹水面積之家戶損失公式 + 0.501 (對數 家庭人口數) 單位淹水面積之 + 0.202 (對數 家戶每人所得) 家戶損失 + 0.281 (對數 區域淹水時間) 區域淹水 家戶 縣市 村里 淹水高度 家庭 房屋 淹水 (公分) 時間(小時) 人口數 自有率 次數 每人所得(元) 參數資料庫 嘉義市 荖藤里 模擬深度 38.2 3 0.95 9.4 23201 嘉義市 後湖里 模擬深度 38.2 5 0.95 9.4 13921 嘉義市 保安里 模擬深度 38.2 3 0.95 9.4 23201 Soil Water BUILD_AREA ZCODE FLOOD_AREA ID COUNTY VILL RATIO （m2） (m) (m2) 建物淹水面積計算表 1 嘉義市 荖藤里 4315.96 0.02 2518.62 0.58 2 嘉義市 荖藤里 8884.04 0.00 160.75 0.02 Conservation Bureau 各村里之家戶損失結果 結合物理易損性與社會易損性進行判斷 19 Social-Eco data Loss estimation and combined indices Disaster Response Decision-making Supporting System Applying GIS technology , integrating the disaster information, visualizing as an Operation Map, providing timely disaster conditions for decision making. http://pblap.atm.ncu.edu.tw/mefsea/ Threat Score = C/(F+O-C) O F C 5km Domain 1 (45 km)，140X105X31 Domain 2 (15 km)，100X100X31 QPESUMS: Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Segregation Using Multiple Sensors 1 1 >15dBZ >35dBZ 0.8 0.8 1 hr 0.6 0.6 2 hr 0.4 0.4 1 hr 3 hr 0.2 0.2 2 hr 3 hr 0 SWCB NSSL 0 06/08/07 06/10/07 06/12/07 06/06/07 06/08/07 06/10/07 06/12/07 06/07/07 06/09/07 06/11/07 06/07/07 CWB06/09/07 06/11/07 WRA 2007/08/13 heavy rain in S Taiwan 2007/08/13 0600~1100UTC 4km CAPPI dBZ 2007/08/13 0600~1100UTC 17 65 15 60 24 13 55 11 )) 50 9 45 7 Height (Km Height a 5 40 ) o 3 35 23 1 Lat ( Lat 30 120. 3E 23. 1N 121. 0E 22. 1N 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 20 a a’ 15 Machia: 14-18L 10 (404mm/5hr) a’ 22 5 Shandimen:14-18L 0 (384mm/5hr) 120 121 122 o Lon ( ) 2007 /11/ 26 hea v y r ain in NE T aiw an 2007/11/26 0000~0600UTC 17 2007/11/26 0000~0600UTC 3km CAPPI dBZ 15 65 13 60 6小時平均回波 11 55 m) 9 50 7 Height (K 45 5 40 3 35 1 121.65E 24.4N30 121.65E 2 24. 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 25 20 15 NdNewdoa: 00-06L 10 (351mm/6hr) Kulou: 07-12L 5 (228mm/6hr) 0 121.5 122 SoWMEX/TiMREX May 15-June 30,,, 2008, SCS and Taiwan Sounding component: ground-based (CWB, AFWW, Universities-NSC), airborne dropsondes, shipboad, GPS-RO, UAV Ship sounding DROPSONDE High Θe air SOUTH CHINA SEA Radar component of SoWMEX/ TiMREX SPOL XPOL XVPR JDOP MRR/POSS /JWD ISS 25km Summary (ii) 1. Setting up valuable early warning system for either flash flood or significant slopeland disasters, historical data should be collected and analyzed for threshold analysis. 2. Quantitative precipitation estimation and quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPE/QPF) is the KEY technology for high impact weather early warning, especially under current global warming environment. 3. Due to multi-scale interaction and complex physical characteristics, understand precipitation process is not easy at all. Multi-member economics collaborative works to collect scientific meaningful data is necessary. 4. Description of hazard related weather information should be modified in current warning sheet in order to reflect the possible threat from the storms. Land and sea warning sheet of CWB for Morakot 中心氣壓955百帕莫拉克 颱風8日07時之中心位於 北緯24.5度，東經121.3 度，即在花蓮北北西方約 60公里處，以每小時10公 里速度，向北北西進行， 中心附近最大風速減弱為 每秒35公尺，相當於12級 風，瞬間最大陣風減弱為 每秒45公尺，相當於14級 風，7級風暴風半徑為250 公里，預測9日05時之中 心位於北緯26.4度，東經 120.6度，即在新竹的北 北西方約180公里之海面 上。 Issues to be discussed: 1. Typhoon warning operation: New categorization scheme for typhoon “intensity”? 2. Are we expecting more record breaking heavy rainfalls in the near future? Typhoon intensity category (wind based) Intensity change Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale Strength Category Wind speed Storm surge change Mph (km/h) Ft (m) Size change 5 ≥156 (≥250) >18 (>5.5) 131–155 13–18 4 (210–249) (4.0–5.5) 111–130 9–12 3 (178–209) (2.7–3.7) 96–110 6–8 2 (154–177) (1.8–2.4) 74–95 4–5 1 (119–153) (1.2–1.5) 1. Intensity：The maximum wind , or the central pressure if no Additional cl assifi cati ons maximum wind data are available。（強度） Tropical 39–73 0–3 2. Strength：The average relative angular momentum of the storm (63–117) (0–0.9) low-level inner circulation (inside 300km radius) 。（壯度） Tropical 0–38 0 3. Size： The axisymmetric extent of gale force winds, or the depression (0–62) (0 radius of the overmost closed isobar。（大小或範圍） Radar data analysis methodology: map 4km height reflectivity data into a cylindrical coordinate with typhoon center as origin quadrant-averaged rain rates (Z-R relation) ; Inner core (A<100km); 1st outer ring (B 100~200km); 2nd outer ring (C, 200~300km) IV C I B A III II Time-radius sections Rainfall strength index of 4 km height mean Morakot (0908) reflectivity of different typhoons Nari (0116) Toraji (0108) Rainfall strength of landfalling typhoons: 100km/300km/600km (1:8:27), inner co re, ra inba nds, oute r ra inba nds .
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