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Fitch Affirms Seven New Zealand Financial Institutions

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Fitch Affirms Seven New Zealand Financial Institutions 8/30/2017 [ Press Release ] Fitch Affirms Seven New Zealand Financial Institutions Fitch Affirms Seven New Zealand Financial Institutions Fitch Ratings-Sydney-30 August 2017: Fitch Ratings has affirmed the ratings of the following seven New Zealand financial institutions: - Kiwibank Limited; - TSB Bank Limited; - Southland Building Society (SBS); - The Co-operative Bank Limited (Co-op); - Nelson Building Society (NBS); - Credit Union Baywide (CUB); and - Wairarapa Building Society (WBS). At the same time, the agency has assigned Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) to TSB, Co-op and CUB. A full list of rating action is at the end of this commentary. The affirmation of the IDRs, Viability Ratings and instrument ratings for the seven institutions reflects our view that they are likely to continue performing solidly over the next year or two. However, we maintain a negative sector outlook for New Zealand, reflecting rising household indebtedness and high property prices, which could lead to asset quality deterioration if unemployment or interest rates rise. Conversely, dairy exposures, for the institutions that have them, are likely to see improved asset quality if higher global dairy prices are sustained into 2018. Many of these entities are planning for strong loan growth. However, we believe market conditions and regulatory action, including already-implemented macro-prudential tools, may make it increasingly difficult for the banks to sustain such growth levels. KEY RATING DRIVERS IDRs Kiwibank's IDRs reflect Fitch's view that there is an extremely high capacity and likelihood of support from the bank's ultimate owner, the New Zealand sovereign (AA/Stable), if required. Kiwibank is directly owned by New Zealand Post, New Zealand Superannuation Fund and Accident Compensation Corporation, which are all sovereign-owned entities. The IDRs of TSB, SBS, Co-op, NBS, CUB and WBS are aligned with their respective Viability Ratings. See below for details of the key rating drivers. VIABILITY RATINGS Kiwibank Kiwibank's Viability Rating reflects its robust asset quality, controlled risk appetite and funding profile. Kiwibank operates a simple business model focusing on the retail segment. The bank is significantly larger by total assets than its regional bank peers, but its low market share of around 4% means it has similarly limited pricing power. Kiwibank's growth over recent years has been moderate relative to peers. Fitch does not expect the bank's asset quality and funding profile to significantly change over the next two years in the absence of an external shock. The bank's capitalisation has historically been a weakness relative to peers. However, the gap has closed following strong growth from other regional banks and capital injections from Kiwibank's shareholders, if retained. Fitch expects the bank's capitalisation to gradually improve over the long term due to its moderate growth levels and willingness of shareholders to reinvest dividends. Fitch considers the bank's access to capital as stronger than peers. TSB TSB's Viability Rating reflects its conservative risk appetite, simple business model and financial metrics that on the whole are stronger than that of peers, while also capturing its small domestic franchise, geographic concentration and limited access to new capital. The bank has experienced strong loan growth through 2016 and into 2017, although this does not appear to have been at the expense of underwriting standards or risk controls. However, TSB expects to maintain strong loan growth levels, which may negatively affect its capitalisation and funding profile. The loan growth follows TSB's five-year strategy to replace less-liquid securities with customer loans. The loan book remains fully deposit funded despite the strong loan growth, although the level of on-balance-sheet liquidity has declined. Profitability is likely to decline in the short- to medium-term as the bank continues to invest in systems and processes to accommodate customer growth, https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/1028432 1/7 8/30/2017 [ Press Release ] Fitch Affirms Seven New Zealand Financial Institutions although this should ultimately support higher profitability in the longer term. TSB's credit profile should not be significantly affected by the funding and special dividend it has provided to its parent to assist with the purchase of a further stake in Fisher Funds Management Limited. However, Fitch continues to monitor the growth and nature of the non-bank operations of TSB's parent to determine what, if any, risk they pose to TSB's profile. SBS SBS's Viability Rating reflects its conservative risk appetite, improving asset quality and earnings, and sound capital ratios. It is offset by a modest domestic franchise and limited pricing power. The bank's growth strategy has given rise to strong loan growth, particularly for residential mortgages and consumer lending. The August 2017 announcement of the acquisition of the Warehouse Financial Services Group is consistent with this strategy. The strength of SBS's balance-sheet growth has pressured its capitalisation and funding profiles, although we expect these to remain in line with those of peers and the bank's ratings. Its strategy is likely to assist earnings and profitability in the medium term, which should ultimately support capitalisation, although growth in non-mortgage consumer loans may increase impaired assets and charge-offs over the cycle. Co-op Co-op's Viability Rating reflects its modest risk appetite, sound asset quality and stable funding profile. This is offset by the bank's moderate franchise and resulting limited pricing power. Fitch expects Co-op's strong expansion - which does not appear to have been achieved at the expense of higher risk appetite or weakening underwriting - to continue. Residential mortgages comprise the bank's core business segment, although we expect it to develop other retail lending. The bank's expansion is likely to continue pressuring its Fitch Core Capital ratio in the short-term, but it has kept its total capital ratio stable by raising Tier 2 capital. NBS The society's ratings are constrained by its modest franchise, small absolute size and capitalisation, as reflected in its low pricing power and higher concentration risk than that of peers. This is offset by NBS's conservative risk appetite, robust asset quality and stable funding position. NBS continues to deliver double-digit asset growth and high deposit growth, with strong community support in its home region. Competition may challenge profitability growth, but robust loan volume should provide a buffer. NBS has limited access to new common equity and its capitalisation ratios remain pressured by strong growth. CUB CUB's Viability Rating reflects its greater risk appetite against that of most domestic peers, with a focus on higher loan/value mortgages and consumer lending. This increases the susceptibility of its loan performance to a weaker operating environment through the cycle. CUB's risk controls are adequate for its size and consistent with regional peers, but are not as developed as those of larger banks. CUB's risk-weighted and unrisk-weighted capitalisation ratios have historically been above those of peers. However, Fitch expects ongoing growth, which exceeds internal capital generation, to pressure capitalisation over the next two years. The credit union has a small absolute capital base and limited ability to generate fresh common equity outside of internal capital generation. WBS The society's Viability Rating reflects its modest franchise and product offering, weaker earnings profile and higher concentration risk relative to peers. WBS's property investment portfolio has historically provided stable rental returns, but adds potential volatility through fair-value market adjustments. These issues are offset by the society's asset quality and conservative risk appetite. The society's conservative risk appetite is reflected in its minimal historical losses and low loan/value mortgages across its loan book, which supports asset quality. The society has reduced its property investment holdings and says it is comfortable with its current portfolio, but continues to monitor opportunities as they arise. WBS's capital ratios are adequate, but it has a small absolute capital base, limited access to new common equity and concentration risk. SUPPORT RATINGS AND SUPPORT RATING FLOORS Kiwibank Kiwibank's Support Rating reflects Fitch's view that there is an extremely high capacity and likelihood of support from the bank's ultimate owner, the New Zealand sovereign, if required. https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/1028432 2/7 8/30/2017 [ Press Release ] Fitch Affirms Seven New Zealand Financial Institutions TSB, SBS, Co-op, NBS, CUB, WBS The Support Rating and Support Rating Floor of these six institutions reflect our view that while support from the New Zealand sovereign is possible, it cannot be relied on. We believe the existence of the open bank resolution scheme (OBR) lowers the propensity of the sovereign to support its banks. The OBR allows for the imposition of losses on depositors and senior debt holders to recapitalise a failed institution. NBS, CUB and WBS are not covered by the OBR due to their status as non-bank deposit-taking institutions; however, the existence of the framework indicates authorities are unlikely to provide support to these entities. SENIOR DEBT Kiwibank Kiwibank's guaranteed senior debt ratings remain aligned with the sovereign rating, as the guarantee covers existing liabilities, including deposits, until final maturity. Ratings of new senior debt issuances, which do not benefit of a guarantee, are likely to be aligned with the relevant IDR. TSB The rating of the registered certificates of deposit programme is aligned with the bank's Short-Term IDR, in line with Fitch's criteria. SBS Deposits from customers are rated one notch above the bank's IDRs, at 'BBB+', to reflect the substantial subordination provided by other instruments to the deposits. Customer deposits rank equally with wholesale funding and ahead of redeemable shares (SBS's main senior funding source), subordinated instruments and equity.
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