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GTA Retail Market Re MARKETBEAT RETAIL SNAPSHOT TORONTO/CANADA A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication Q4 2011 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW ECONOMIC INDICATORS The retail real estate market in the Greater NATIONAL 2010 2011F 2012F Toronto Area (GTA) continues to be a GDP Growth 3.2% 2.3% 2.0% shining light in the gloom of the ongoing CPI Growth 1.8% 2.9% 2.4% economic recession. Demand remains high, vacancy rates are low and rental rates are on Consumer Spending Growth 3.3% 1.9% 1.7% the rise. Investors are back in the market with sales of retail Housings Starts (000’s) 192 191 182 properties hitting a new high in 2011. Real Disposable Income 3.6% 1.0% 1.7% Canada has been fortunate to escape some of the worst excesses of Home Prices 6.8% 7.6% 0.0% the economic crisis, thanks to a strong labour market, income Employment Growth 1.4% 1.5% 0.7% growth, low interest rates, and a well-functioning banking sector, and Ontario Unemployment Rate 8.6% 7.8% 7.8% consumer spending has been a major source of growth coming out Source: BMO Capital Markets Economics of the recession. Canada, however, is not immune to the global contagion and if the economic malaise in Europe and the U.S. deepens, Canada’s economy could be dragged down as well. There RETAIL SALES AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TRENDS are already some cautionary signs on the domestic economic FOR CANADA horizon. With Canadian household debt levels reaching new highs, most experts expect to see consumer spending moderating. $445 120 Nevertheless, the retail real estate market in the GTA remains $440 vibrant and healthy and should continue to outperform other real $435 100 $430 Projection estate sectors in 2012. $425 80 Retail Vacancies Heading Lower: With 12.5% of Canadian jobs, $420 the retail sector is Canada’s largest employer. In 2010, retailers sold $415 60 Bil Can$ an estimated $436.6 billion worth of goods and services and 2011 is $410 $405 40 expected to be higher by about 3.5%. Consumer spending has helped $400 buoy the economy and as a result, retail real estate continues to $395 20 tighten, especially in the GTA. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Even with the ongoing addition of condominium ground-floor retail space in the urban core, the vacancy rate for street front retail RETAIL SALES CONSUMER CONFIDENCE continues to decline and now sits at about 9%. Power centres and regional malls are doing even better, with vacancy rates of about 3%. Source: J C Williams / Statistics Canada Typically, the bigger the mall, the lower the vacancy rate. Yorkdale Mall, with average sales per square feet of more than $1,300 (the strongest in Canada) continues to attract top name brands and is RETAIL RENTS FOR TORONTO – 4Q 2011 almost fully leased even with its new 140,000-square foot (sf) RETAIL RENT SHORT TERM expansion currently under construction. Small neighbourhood malls PRODUCT SQUARE TREND and strip centres have vacancies of around 8.5%, although some FOOT/YR under-performing strip centres are being sold and redeveloped into CRU (New) $24 to $30 Stable mixed-use projects. Big Box (New) $16 to $24 Stable With vacancies at such low levels, rental rates in most categories Pads (New) $32 to $50 Up have increased by an average of 3% over last year and tenant Street Front $30 to $120 Up inducements, already at low levels, continue to decline. The Foreign Invasion: About 50% of Canada’s leading retailers are The average sale cost of retail real estate in the GTA was $368 psf foreign owned and operated (largely by U.S. companies). Iconic bands and the average retail cap rate was approximately 6.7%. such as Apple, Victoria Secret and Tiffany & Co. have seen double- digit sales increases in major malls across Canada and the Canadian TORONTO RETAIL AVERAGE SF VS. CAP RATE retail industry is still watching the impending opening of Target stores $400 12% in 2013 with a mix of anticipation and trepidation. $350 10% $300 The international interest in the Toronto retail market shows no $250 8% signs of slacking, especially for high-end retailers drawn by the allure $200 6% of Toronto’s wealthy and cosmopolitan consumers. Bloor Street, $150 4% Canada’s most expensive retail high street, has an extremely low $100 Avg. $/SF 2% vacancy rate despite lease rates of more than $300 per square foot $50 $0 0% (psf). New entry retailers that have saturated the malls are now 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 seeking more street front buildings for expansion. Avg. $/SF Avg. Cap Rate That is not to say that all forays into the market have gone smoothly, as J. Crew discovered. Faced with an angry backlash when Canadian Source: Realnet Canada Inc. consumers discovered that Canadian prices at its newly opened store RETAIL REAL ESTATE were as much as 50% higher than those in the U.S., the retailer A real estate group has purchased 33.7 acres near Dundas St. E. and quickly backed down. U.S. retailers, who like to have property Dixie Rd. in Mississauga with the intention of building a new Wal- ownership as part of their financial model have also discovered, much Mart power centre. Retrocom Mid-Market Real Estate to their frustration, that Canadian property owners prefer to lease Investment Trust announced in July that it has teamed up with rather than sell. Azuria Group and Fieldgate Commercial Development RETAIL INVESTMENT Limited to build the new store at 1480 Dundas St. E. The The GTA retail investment market hit an all time high this year with development, with a price tag of $30 million, is expected to be almost $3 billion dollars worth of sales with a total commercial real completed by November 2013. estate volume in the GTA reaching approximately $12.6 billion. Canadian Tire is improving the energy-efficiency of its stores. In Retail land sales have also been hot with prices escalating by an May, it opened a store in Kemptville, Ontario that consumes 9.7 estimated 15 percent over last year. Pension funds, which sat on the ekWh/sq.ft. (a unit of energy usage for gas and hydro in kilowatt- sidelines last year, have been very active in the market. Expect some hours) compared to 17.8 in existing stores. It is also installing rooftop culling of non-strategic assets in 2012. solar systems on 16 stores by the end of this year. A further 24 Real estate developers continue to look for infill sites in downtown installations are scheduled for 2013. The renewable energy generated for mixed-use developments and retail on the ground level to serve by these systems will be fed into the electrical grid and will produce the ongoing boom in condominium construction and the influx of new enough renewable electricity to power 1,000 average-sized Canadian residents to the downtown core. homes annually for twenty years. In the fourth quarter of 2011, 93 transactions over $1 million were Construction crews broke ground at Yonge and Bloor streets in July recorded, totaling $511 million according to RealNet Canada. for the One Bloor Condominium Development. The corner of Investment sales of retail assets under $5 million outperformed all Yonge and Bloor, which anchors Toronto’s “mink mile”, has been other asset classes in 2011, mainly due to the lack of availability and vacant for several years since a previous development fell through. insatiable demand by investors. First Capital Realty’s $108-million The seventy-storey condo will have 90,000 sf of retail space on three acquisition of the Hazelton Lanes shopping centre was the largest floors and is expected to be completed by 2013. transaction in the fourth quarter and Bentall Kennedy’s $226-million On September 1, the Toronto Eaton Centre unveiled its new $48- purchase of the retail centre located at 10 Dundas Street East was million Urban Eatery. Finished with stainless steel, slate, marble and the largest overall transaction of 2011, occurring in the first quarter. natural woods, the 45,000-sf food court is now a sleek, dining area with 24 restaurants. Food is served on china with real cutlery. GTA SIGNIFICANT INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS SQUARE Upgrading shopping centre food courts is a growing trend. Cadillac ADDRESS FOOTAGE PRICE Fairview is renovating the food courts at several of its GTA malls, Metro Toronto Convention Centre 1,950,000 $237,400,000 including Markville S.C. and Sherway Gardens. The Hudson’s Bay Company flagship store on Queen Street also redeveloped its Oakville Place 455,000 $202,000,000 restaurants with a 5,000-sf food court that resembles an “old world” Burlington Mall 636,000 $177,000,000 market. Winston Churchill Power Centre 553,583 $171,000,000 Toronto’s Queen Street West has seen a drop in rents recently and Hazelton Lanes 204,865 $108,000,000 some of the big-name brands, such as Esprit, have closed their Source: RealNet Canada Inc. John G. Crombie, Senior Managing Director Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, 1100-3100 Steeles Avenue East, Markham, ON L3R 8T3 rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by [email protected] (416) 756-5448 our principals. www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge © 2012 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved. stores. Rents have dropped from highs of $140-psf to the $100-psf First Capital, banking on urbanites moving back into downtown range leaving Queen West storefronts better suited to “unique, one- Toronto, intends to expand the mall’s offerings and services to off” retail.
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