WikiLeaks Document Release http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL33911 February 2, 2009

Congressional Research Service Report RL33911 Somalia: Current Conditions and Prospects for a Lasting Peace Ted Dagne, Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division

December 18, 2008

Abstract. In June 2008, the TFG and the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS), a group dominated by members of the ICU, signed an agreement in Djibouti mediated by United Nations Special Envoy Ahmedou Ould-Abdullah. The parties agreed to a cease-fire, the withdrawal of Ethiopian forces, and the deployment of a United Nations peacekeeping force. Several towns are now administered by the ARS, including Jowhar and Beledweyne. A number of other towns, including the third largest town, Kismaayo, are now under the control of the Al-Shabaab, a group opposed to the TFG and the ARS-Djibouti faction. The next phase of the Somali conflict is likely to occur between the ARS and the Al-Shabaab. In February 2008, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice designated Al-Shabaab as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. Meanwhile, Somali pirates have intensified their attacks in the Gulf of Aden, carrying out attacks on over 90 commercial ships, and successfully hijacked over 35 ships in 2008. Currently an estimated 14-18 ships are under the control of the pirates, including a Saudi-owned supertanker, Sirius Star, and a Ukranian-owned ship, MV Faina, with 33 T-72 tanks and other weapons. The pirates have earned more than $50 million in ransom payments, and have released a number of the ships and crew members. The United States, Russia, India, and several other countries have deployed warships to tackle piracy in the Horn of Africa region, although the problem still persists. Some insurgent leaders have warned the pirates to end their illegal activities and to release crew members and ships that they currently control. http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL33911 *(*2'*7=+2`=,**2= 5*(.&1.89=.3= +7.(&3= ++&.78= *)=&,3*= +47=&=&89.3,=*&(*= 42&1.&a= :77*39= 43).9.438=&3)=7485*(98= Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress =*5479=+47=43,7*88

43,7*88.43&1= *8*&7(-=*7;.(*= <<<_(78_,4;= --3++= 18/1**= = http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL33911 43,7*88.43&1=*8*&7(-=*7;.(*= circumstances warrant. release crew members and ships that they currently control. This report will be updated as persists. Some insurgent leaders have warned the pirates toend their illegal activities and to deployed warships to tackle piracy inthe Horn of Africa region, although the problem still the ships and crew members. The United States, Russia, India, andseveral other countries have pirates have earned more than $50 million in ransom payments, and have released anumber of Sirius Star estimated 14-18 ships are under the control of the pirates, including aSaudi-owned supertanker, on over 90commercial ships, and successfully hijacked over 35ships in 2008. Currently an Meanwhile, Somali pirates have intensified their attacks in the Gulf of Aden, carrying out attacks Rice designated Al-Shabaab asaForeign Terrorist Organization. to occur between the ARS and the Al-Shabaab. In February 2008,Secretary ofState Condoleezza opposed to the andTFG the ARS-Djibouti faction. The next phase of the Somali conflict is likely including thethird largest town, Kismaayo, arenowunder the control of the Al-Shabaab, agroup now administered by the ARS, including and Jowhar Beledweyne. A number of other towns, Ethiopian forces, and the deployment ofaUnited Nations peacekeeping force. Several towns are Special Envoy Ahmedou Ould-Abdullah. The parties ag dominated by members of the ICU, signed anagreement in Djibouti mediated by United Nations In 2008, the June TFG and the Alliance for the Re-Liberation ofSomalia (ARS), a group the approval of the Somali Transitional Parliament. 2008. Inmid-December 2008,President Yusuf fired his primeminister, although hedid not get the Ethiopian government announced that its forces would pull out of Somalia by the endof hadTFG lost control ofmost of south-central Somalia to insurgent groups. In November 2008, fighting between insurgent groups andEthiopian-TFG forces intensified, and by late 2008, the million people displaced, and 476,000 Somalis have fled toneighboring countries. In 2008, Somalia. In thepast twoyears, more than 10,000 civilians have been killed, an estimated 1.1 years. Humanitarian, political, and security conditions continue to deteriorate across south-central The Ethiopian intervention has led to more chaos and instability inSomalia over the past two from theICU. breakthrough. OnDecember 28,2006 Ethiopian troops the ICU, Mogadishu became relatively peaceful, but efforts to bring peace did not lead to a major Islamic Courts Union (ICU) took control of the capital, Mogadishu. During thesix-month rule by elected Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed asthenew president of Somalia. In June 2006, the forces of the 275-member Transitional Parliament was inaugurated in Kenya. In October2004, parliament September 2003, the parties agreed on a Transitional National Charter (TNC). In August 2004, a process designed to end factional fighting inSomalia, led by thegovernment of Kenya. In In 2002, Inter-Governmental October the Authority for Development (IGAD) launched a peace :22&7>= = , and a Ukranian-owned ship, MV Faina 42&1.&a= :77*39= 43).9.438=&3)=7485*(98=+47=&=&89.3,=*&(*= , with 33 T-72 tanks andother weapons. The captured Mogadishu with little resistance reed to a cease-fire, the withdrawal of http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL33911 43,7*88.43&1=*8*&7(-=*7;.(*= Author Contact 439&(98= Table 1. LeadershipThe of the Executive &'1*8= Figure 2. Map Figure 1. Major Somali .,:7*8= Somalia: Safe Haven for 1 ...... Somalia: Background (1991-2006) Ethiopia-Soma Leadership of the Transiti ...... The Top Leaders of the Courts The Leadership of the Somali Co ...... The Islamic CourtsUnion 1 Peacekeeping Mission: Background...... Background: 2006-2008 439*398= = Al-Ittihad...... Peace Processes...... The Legislative C The Executive Council...... Somali Piracy in the 3 ...... Human Rights andHumanitarian Conditions Security Conditions...... Recent Developments...... National Reconcilia The AllianceRe-Lib forthe Policy Options inDealing withPo Policy Options inDe 5 The Views from Somalia...... the Who Are Overview...... Political Deve of Somalia...... lia Relations...... Informa iae?...... 4 ...... Pirates? uclo hr...... 14 ouncil or Shura...... omns...... 1 ...... lopments ln n ucas...... 21 ...... Clans andSubclans in...... tion ono fia...... 3 Horn of Africa...... errs rus...... 19 Terrorist Groups?...... nlFdrlGvrmn ...... 15 ...... onal Federal Government inCneec ...... 18 ...... tion Conference aling with uncil of the Is rto fSmla...... 6 eration ofSomalia...... iay...... 5 Piracy...... 42&1.&a= :77*39= 43).9.438=&3)=7485*(98=+47=&=&89.3,=*&(*= oni fteASBfr h pi...... 7 Council of the ARS Before the Split...... litical andSecuri ai ors...... 13 ...... lamic Courts yPolm ...... 6 ...... ty Problems ...... 20 ...... 22 ...... 17 ...... 15 ...... 11 8 ...... 2 ...... 23 ...... 14 ...... 3 ...... 14 .. 1 .... 7 0

http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL33911 43,7*88.43&1=*8*&7(-=*7;.(*= 2 1 and acommitment tofind a durable peace agreement. talks in Djibouti. The parties agreed on awide range of issues, including cessation of hostilities Organization of Islamic Conference, and regional Nations. Officials from the United States, Europe, the African Union, the Arab League, the In May-June, 2008, andTFG ARS officials met in Djibouti under the auspices of the United ICUmembers inaU.N.-led peace process. 2006. Eighteen months later, however, the same officials supported the inclusion of some former TFG, and Ethiopian officials labeled the entire leadership of the ICU asextremist and terrorist in leadership of the ICU becamemarginalized, splintered, andweakened over the past year. U.S., that was soon occupied by the more radical elements of theICU’s military factions. moderateThe ouster from powerof the ICU by Ethiopian forces in December 2006created asecurity vacuum former members of the Islamic CourtsUnion (I Government (TFG) and the Alliance for the Re-Lib some political progress and arecent peace agreement between the Somali Transitional Federal Humanitarian and security conditions continue todeteriorate in south-central Somalia, despite 41.9.(&1= *;*1452*398= *(*39=*;*1452*398= = resigned, triggering acrisis within the TFG. In August 2008, the prime minister and thepresident Mohamed Dheere, because of mismanagement offunds. In protest, ten pro-Yusuf ministers 2008, the prime minister dismissed the mayor of bridge the gap between the andTFG the opposition, often clashed with President Yusuf. In July Prime Minister Nur Adde, who isseen by many Somalis and Somali observers as a key actor to Somalis as ineffective and highly partisan. TFG. In November 2007,Prime Minister Nur Adde replaced Ali M.Ghedi, a man seenby many TFG, especially between Prime Minister Nur Adde and President Yusuf, also has weakened the pledged to the dueTFG to lack oftransparency andhuman rights abuses. Infighting within the Nations, left the force due to lack of payment. Some governments donor have withheld funds defections. Over the past year, anestimated 40% of the police force, trained by the United international community. The TFG forces are weak, ineffective, andseriously debilitated by the TFG, insecurity, growing influence of insurgent groups, and limited support by the The Djibouti agreement is complicated and has repeatedly beenundermined by in-fighting within justice, and governance issues. parties established a High Level Committee, chaired by theUnited Nations, to deal with political, to ensure implementation of security arrangements and create an interim joint security force. unhindered humanitarian access to civilians in need and toestablish a Joint Security Committee forces would pull out of Somalia by theend of 2008. The parties also agreed to provide from some areas.In addition, inNovember 2008, the Ethiopian government announced that its deployment ofaU.N.peacekeeping force, alt forces from Somalia. The agreement, however, links deployment ofaUnited Nations peacekeeping fo United Nations Political Officefor Somalia August (UNPOS), 2008. CRS interview with senior TFGofficials and members of the Somali opposition in Kenya, May and August 2008.

42&1.&a= :77*39= 43).9.438=&3)=7485*(98=+47=&=&89.3,=*&(*= hough Ethiopian forces have already withdrawn CU) andSomalis from different backgrounds. The rce and thephased withdrawal of Ethiopian Mogadishu and Governor of Benadir region, governments took part as observers during the eration ofSomalia (ARS), agroup formed by the withdrawal of Ethiopian forces with the 1 partiesThe agreedsupport to the 2 The += http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL33911 Foreign Terrorist Organization and as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist. Afghanistan. In February 2008,Secretary ofState is Ibrahim Haji Jama, whois onthe U.S.terrorism list, reportedly trained and fought in Robow, whois on the U.S. terrorism list, is the spokesman ofthe Al-Shabaab. Another key leader commander, who trained and fought in Afghanistan and comes from Somaliland. Mukhtar come from Somaliland. Ahmed Abdi Godane,who known, withthe exception of some. Some ofthekey commanders and leaders of the Al-Shabaab engaged intalks with some members ofthe ICU. But theleaders of the Al-Shabaab are not fully Ethiopian forces and intervention by clan elders. Some ofthe Al-Shabaab leaders are currently negotiated settlement between the ICU andthe Al-S Some ofthemilitary commanders of the ICU arelikely to join forces with the Al-Shabaab. A Puntland by military means. The Al-Shabaab, if successful in capturing Mogadishu, is likely toseek control of Somaliland and Shabaab “The Youth”, a group determined to expand its influence and control beyond Mogadishu. serious challenges. The balance of military power on the ground has shifted in favor of the Al- inactive due to insecurity, defections, and infighting. The Djibouti peace process, however, faces reportedly plan to expand the current 275-member parliament. SomaliThe Parliament hasbeen Somalis from different backgrounds, including former members ofthe ICU. partiesThe also 43,7*88.43&1=*8*&7(-=*7;.(*= 4 3 Jowhar, with some support from Ethiopian and forces.TFG active outside the capital. The forces of the ARS are reportedly in control ofBeledweyne and case ofMogadishu,theinsurgents control someMogadishuparts of some of their and forces are Somalia (AMISOM), donot have control or presence outside Baidoa and Mogadishu. Even in the third largest town, Kismaayo. Ethiopian and TFG forces, aswell as the African Union Mission to November 2008, insurgent groups were in control ofmost of south-central Somalia, including the central Somalia. In some cases, forcesTFG simply withdrewfrom some areas. As of late In 2008,insurgent groups have stepped up attacks against Ethiopian and forcesTFG in south- *(:7.9>=43).9.438= Mogadishu. The ongoing Djibouti peace process aims to establish a new, inclusive government in President Yusuf. Minister Nur Adde. The government of Kenya im minister. OnDecember 15, 2008, amajority of the Somali Parliament voted in support ofPrime the legal authority todismiss him andthat only Parliament hasthe power to dismiss the prime prime minister. The prime minister has rejected his dismissal arguing that President Yusuf lacked President Yusuf fired Prime Minister Nurand named Mohamed Mohamud Guled asthe new met inEthiopia, and later reached an agreement on a number ofissues. In Mid-December 2008, = agreement between the TFG andthe ARS. In lateOctober 2008, simultaneous and well- Security conditions are likely todeteriorate further in the comingmonths, despite the peace and government officials. expanded their military operations to other parts of Somalia and routinely assassinate opponents CRSinterview with a leader of the Islamic Courts, November 2008. CRSinterview inKenyawith U.N.Sp 3 primaryThe objective is to form anewNational Unity Government made upof ecial Envoy Ould-Abdallah, August 2008.

42&1.&a= :77*39= 43).9.438=&3)=7485*(98=+47=&=&89.3,=*&(*= posed atravel ban and asset freeze against Condoleezza Rice designated Al-Shabaab as a is on theU.S. terrorism list, is akey habaab is possible, with the withdrawal of 4 The Al-Shabaab forces also have ,= http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL33911 43,7*88.43&1=*8*&7(-=*7;.(*= 7 6 5 supertanker, 2008, an estimated 14-18 ships were under the control ofthe pirates, including a Saudi-owned commercial ships, and successfully hijacked anestimated 40ships in2008. As of late November Somali pirates have intensified their attacks in the Gulf of Aden, carrying outattacks onover 90 ;*7;.*<= 42&1.=.7&(>=.3=9-*=473=4+= +7.(&= rights advocates and journalists have fled Somalia toneighboring countries for safety. imprisoned by andEthiopianTFG security forces. Because of these targeted attacks,many human months. Dozens ofhumanitarian and human rights advocates have beenkilled, injured, or in Somalia have been assassinated by insurgents and security forces over the past eighteen Entire neighborhoods have beendestroyed.” forces. According to AmnestyInternational, “rape, killings andlooting have become widespread. rights advocates have been the primary targets of the insurgents, TFG, and Ethiopian security killed over the past eighteen months. Civilians, humanitarian workers, journalists, andhuman years. Human rights groups andSomali observers estimate more than10,000 people have been have beendisplaced and more than 475,000 have fled to neighboring countries in the past two to United Nations officials and Somali humanitarian workers. An estimated 1.1million people In 2008,humanitarian and human rights conditions became worsethan previous years, according :2&3=.,-98=&3)=:2&3.9&7.&3=43).9.438= many andforwhat purpose these Somalis left Minneapolis. leaders believe they went to Somalia to join the insurgency. There is noclear evidence of how Reportedly, over a dozen Somali youth from Minneapolis have left the U.S,and some community from Minneapolis, who,according topress reports, left no organization claimed credit for the attacks. Oneof the suicide bombers is an American-Somali Palace. suicideThe mission wasreportedly carried out bymembers of the Al-Shabaab, although Presidential to the and Development close a office Programsecurity (UNDP), Nations United and injured manymore. The targets of the attacks were theEthiopian Consulate, the office of the coordinated suicide attacks inPuntland and Somaliland reportedly killed an estimated 20 people = CRS metwith a group of Somali human rights advocates, who fled Somalia for safety. TFG/Ethiopian security forces. by and insurgents attacked been foreign and media have also NGOs international working for these Somalis have beenkilled in the past two years by insurgents and security forces. have returned toSomalia to work as journalists, humanitarian workers, and teachers. A number of the pirates to end the piracy andto release crew members and ships currently controlled by the Horn of Africa region, although the problem still persists. Some insurgent leaders have warned States, Russia, India, andseveral other countries have deployed warships to tackle piracy inthe million in ransom payments, andhave released a number of ships and crew members. The United and other weapons, according topress reports. The pirates have reportedly earned more than $120 CRS interviewed a number of journalists and human rights advocates inKenya in2007 and 2008. In November 2008, “Routinely Targeted Attacks onCivilians in Somalia,” “Young Somali Men Missing from Minneapolis,” Sirius Star Sirius , and aUkranian-owned ship,

42&1.&a= :77*39= 43).9.438=&3)=7485*(98=+47=&=&89.3,=*&(*= International Herald Tribune 6 A number ofSomali journalists covering thecrisis Amnesty International MV Faina the U.S.to take part in the suicide attacks. 5 Over thepast decade, many Somalis , which is carrying 33 T-72 tanks , May 2008. , November 27, 2008. 2008. 27, November , 7 Somalis -= http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL33911 (GPS), Automatic Identification System (AIS), andsatellite phones. 43,7*88.43&1=*8*&7(-=*7;.(*= 8 Persian Gulf. receiving valuable information about the types businessmen andofficials in Puntland are reportedly behind the piracy. The pirates are reportedly operating alone, according to anumber ofSomali and regional sources. Some Somali leaders threatened to take military action against the pirates. The pirates, however, are not Sheik Hassan Aweys, called onthe pirates to end their criminal activities, and other insurgent piracy andother criminal activities. In November 2008,oneof the top leaders of the insurgents, assertion, and during thesix months theICU wasinpower, the leaders took measures to end Islamic insurgents in south-central Somalia. There is no evidence, however, to support this Some pressreports have suggested that the pirates are being controlled and directed by the pirates primarily come from Puntlandregion of Somalia and are members ofdifferent clans. these pirates are reportedly fishermen and former militia members of the Somali warlords. The the pirates donot seem tohave aunified organization with clear command structure. Many of The number of Somali pirates is unknown. While there are more pirates nowthan previous years, -4=7*=9-*=.7&9*8
= the TFG. authorizes military operations inside Somalia and in its airspace for one year, with the consent of of “all necessary measures” by foreign military forces to stop piracy inSomalia. The resolution December 16,2008, the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution authorizing the use pirates. In December 2008, the Indian Navy reportedly arrested 23Somali and Yemeni pirates. On = CRSinterviewswith Somali officials, opposition leaders, and regional officials. 8 They also possess sophisticated technology, including Global Position Systems

42&1.&a= :77*39= 43).9.438=&3)=7485*(98=+47=&=&89.3,=*&(*= of ships, cargo, and timing from Somalis in the .= http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL33911 43,7*88.43&1=*8*&7(-=*7;.(*= 11 10 9 of Africa. Since the deployment ofthese warships Gulf of Aden. The United Nations Security Council has passed resolutions on piracy inthe Horn The international community hasresponded to the threat of piracy by deploying warships to the 41.(>=59.438=.3= *&1.3,=<.9-=.7&(>= Somalis get involved in criminal Somali community leaders contend that some great deal of international attention. Some fact that the piracy problem hasreceived a humanitarian crisis, many Somalis resent the of difficult economic conditions and growing willing topay thepirates ransom.In theface will continueaslongas the shipowners are daily life. Some argue that the piracy problem foreign problem with little impact ontheir Some Somalis view the piracy crisis as a -*=.*<8=+742=42&1.&= = illegal activities by some countries, and not to solely focus on the problem ofpiracy. European and Asian countries.” The Special Envoy argued that it is important to tackle these stated that “because there is no (effective) government, there is somuch irregular fishing from alternative, they have come toaccept life with all the difficulties they face daily. Somalis contend that in the absence of abetter agencies tohire gunmen for protection. Many criminal elements, forcing humanitarian assistance convoys are routinely targeted by one neighborhood to another. Humanitarian warlordspay“taxes” to from to pass inorder principal victims ofcriminals. Somalis had to Barre government in1991, Somalis have been profession. Since the collapse of the Siad these kinds of criminal activities a lifetime order to survive, while many othershave made per ton to dump waste in Europe. cost. The report states that it costs $2.5 per ton to dump toxic waste in Africa compared to $250 wastes, you name it.” According to the report, the primary reason for toxic dumping inSomalia is metals like cadmium andmercury, there’s industrial waste, and there’s hospital wastes, chemical According toaUNEP spokesman, “there’s uranium radioactive waste, there’s lead, there’s heavy documenting the damages doneas aresult of toxic waste dumping onSomalia’s shores. governments. In 2005,the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP)released areport destroyed by illegal fishing and toxic waste dumping that has been ignored by foreign Some Somalis argue that the fishermen have become pirates because their way of life was Ted Dagne interviewedmany Somalis inDadaab refugee camp inKenya in2007-2008. Ted Dagne interviewwith U.N. Special Envoy in Kenya,August 2008. http://new.unep.org/tsunami/reports/TSUNAMI_SOMALIA_LAYOUT.pdf

10 activities in in activities In July 2008,United Nations Special Envoy Ould-Abdallah 42&1.&a= :77*39= 43).9.438=&3)=7485*(98=+47=&=&89.3,=*&(*= to the region, however, the number ofhijacked 15% (includingArabs, 30,000) Ethnic groups:Somali,85%;Bantu &other non-Somali, GDP, realgrowthrate:2.6% (2007 est.) GDP, percapita:$600 (2007 est.) HIV/AIDS, adultprevalencerate: 1%(2001 est.) (2008 est.) Infant MortalityRate:110.97 deaths/1,000 livebirths Capital: Mogadishu Approximate size:slightlysmallerthan Texas Life expectancy: 49.2 years Growth rate: 2.85% (2008 est.) (2008Population: 9.5million est.) Official language:Somali SunniMuslim Religion: Somalia: Facts &Statistics 9

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/= http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL33911 43,7*88.43&1=*8*&7(-=*7;.(*= significantly reduced the dominance of the Council of the Islamic Courts and brought into the Youth, did not participate, and later condemned the leadership of the Alliance. The Alliance (ARC). More than 400 people participated at members ofparliament met inEritrea and formed the Alliance for the Re-Liberation ofSomalia In September 2007,Somalis from theDiaspora, civil society, opposition groups, and former -*=11.&3(*=+47=9-*=!*8#.'*7&9.43=4+=42&1.&= are now engaged inthe U.N.-led negotiation in Djibouti. leaders, some ofwhom are in Eritrea. The ARS pivotal, however. Most believe thatEritrea has leverage over some ofthe influential Islamic by the Al-Shabaab to wage war, the presence of foreign forces. A unified regional approach is countries. A Somali-led initiative would take away population rather than apeacekeeping force. The coalition canbe assisted by neighboring Shabaab politically andmilitarily. Such a coalition is likely toget the support of the Somali forces could form acoalition tocontain the advances of the most extreme elements of the Al- political andmilitary. The TFG, Islamic Courts, Somaliland, Puntland, andother moderate Somali containing the extremists, most observers contend, is to look for aSomali-led solution, both individuals to the International Criminal Court (ICC) forwar crimes. The most effective way of in the short term andincrease anti-western violence. Another option is to refer some ofthese for other moderate leaders to emerge. However, others believe that this option is likely tobackfire sanctions and assassination of the most extreme elements of the Al-Shabaab, could pave theway inclined to participate in negotiations. According tosome experts, targeted measures, including Some ofthe leaders in the Al-Shabaab are determin to U.N.officials, that man isnolonger on the Terrorism List. in facilitating theDjibouti talks was aSomali man ona United Nations Terrorism List. According acceptance of anegotiated settlement, should be considered as an option. One of the key players Terrorism List in exchange for some concessions, including anend to the insurgency and and U.S. Terrorism List.Some observers argue that removing some ofthese individuals from the supported by clan elders. Some ofthemost influential leaders in the Al-Shabaab are on the U.N. Most observers believe that the Al-Shabaab can only be contained by another Islamicmovement observers, it is pivotal to strengthen the moderate elements of the Islamic movements discretely. elders to deal with the political and security problems facing Somalia. According to some The international communitymay consider engagement with the Islamic insurgents andclan 41.(>=59.438=.3= *&1.3,=<.9-=41.9.(&1=&3)=*(:7.9>=74'1*28= criminal activities. quick and robust economic incentives to lure the unemployed away from piracy andother become targets of punitive action by the international community. Another option is toprovide because they fear that they could erroneously or deliberately linked to the piracy phenomenon and for religious reasons. The Islamic leadership sees the piracy problem asasource of concern observers. IslamicThe insurgents claim that they areopposed to these kinds of criminal activities when they werein power, according tosenior leaders of the Islamic Courts and independent the Islamic insurgents and the clan elders. IslamicThe Courts dealt with this problem effectively analysts argue that the groups most capable andbest positioned to handle the piracy problem are members andships still under the control of the pirates. Somali community leaders and regional ships has increased. Moreover, there has been norescue operation as of November tofree crew = 42&1.&a= :77*39= 43).9.438=&3)=7485*(98=+47=&=&89.3,=*&(*= the foundingconference. The Al-Shabaab, the was founded in Eritrea, and some ofits leaders one ofthe most powerful justifications used ed tocontinue their military campaign andnot 0= http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL33911 o.Oa ah dn neirSceay Parliament CivilSociety CivilSociety Information Secretary Affiliation Interior Secretary Information Secretary intellectual Somali Parliament CivilSociety oftheIslamic SomaliCouncil Ahmed AbdullahiSheikh ForeignAffairs SCIC Col. OmarHashiAden Administration Consultant Assistanttothe Ahmed AbdullahiSheikh Ambassador Yusuf H.Ibrahim Title ViceChairman ForeignAffairsAdvisor Prof. AbdirahmanIbrahim Ibbi ViceChairman Dr. MohamedAliDahir Chairman Prof. IbrahimHassan Addou,Ph.D. Zakaria HagiMohamudAbdi General Jama Mohmed Galib Sheikh SharifAhmed Name Djibouti to participate in the U.N.-sponsored negotiations. position led to asplit of the Alliance. Many ofthe top leaders of the Alliance left Eritrea for negotiations with the TFG and others once Ethiopian forces are replaced by aneutral force. This delegation that the Alliance will accept ahumanitarian cease-fire, zones of tranquility, and conflict is essential.” In January 2008, the Alliance leadership informed acongressional Council, they turn into peace enforcers. To avoid troops. Experience has shown that whenpeacekeepers areunilaterally imposed by theSecurity wrote “A peacekeeping mission would be possibl In March2008, the Chairman of the Alliance in a letter tothe President of the Security Council 43,7*88.43&1=*8*&7(-=*7;.(*= 12 coalition are: were not given leadership positions. According tothe Alliance, the main objectives of the addition, individuals, such as Hassan Aweys, considered by thewest as extremists or terrorists, Alliance also brought into the coalition people from different regions and clans of Somalia. In leadership people from civil society, women’s groups, and former members of the TFG. The = Political program of the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia. • • • • • • Table 1. The Leadership of the Executive Council of the ARS Before the Split

material development.” welfare of the people, protect its rights, properties and promote its spiritual and To establish aNational Government “completely devote its utmost care to the Somali solutions by Somali-stake-holders through dialogue andpeaceful means. The liberation of Somalia from Ethiopia. Organize general elections once peace and security isestablished. Resettlement ofdisplaced people. raping, pillaging, dislodging anddisplacing. Fighting crimes andviolence targeted agai 12

Secretary Chairman 42&1.&a= :77*39= 43).9.438=&3)=7485*(98=+47=&=&89.3,=*&(*= e onlye after thedeparture oftheEthiopian such a situation, the consent of the parties to the nst civilian population, such as killing, Parliament Parliament Courts (SCIC) 1= http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL33911 bulh hih uiigSceay SCIC SCIC Diaspora AuditingSecretary Parliament Affiliation Secretary Reconciliation Diaspora Parliament Social AffairsSecretary SCIC SCIC SCIC EducationSecretary Planning&TrainingSecretary Abdullahi Sheikh CivilSociety Parliament Ahmed AbdulleHussain Human RightsSecretary Secretary ReliefandRehabilitation Mohmed Ibrahim Garyare Abdulkadir MohmedDhakane DefenseSecretary Title MohamudAhmed Tarzan JusticeSecretary FinanceSecretary Mrs.FowsiaMohmedSheikh InteriorSecretary Dr. MohamudAbdiIbrahim HealthSecretary Dr. MohamedAliIbrahim,Ph.D. Dr. MohamedAhmed Mohamed, MD Yusuf Mohamed Siad Abdifitah MohamedAli Col. OmarHashiAden Name according to one senior Courts official. Allegations about the presence of the three suspects rejected these allegations and on anumber ofoccasions have offered towork with U.S.officials, tied towell known terrorist individuals and Al Q Jihadist group. Ethiopian and U.S.officials also have accused the Courts of being influenced or serious threat to Ethiopia and regional stability, andbecause the Islamic Courts is an extremist, Ethiopian officials argued that their military action is justified because the Islamic Courts posed a League, andothers have called for the deployment ofa United Nations peacekeeping force. governments and regional organizations. The African Union, the European Commission, the Arab the Courts from Mogadishu andother areas the Courts controlled, has been criticized by The Ethiopian military intervention, while it has accomplished its military objective ofousting officials and others to participate in proposed negotiations among Somali groups and the TFG. have also been approached by U.S.officials as part of a newstrategy toreach out to Court Ambassador Michael Ranneberger, reportedly met with Sheik Ahmed. Other leaders of the Courts Sheik Ahmed, traveled to Kenya. OnJanuary 24,2007, theU.S. Ambassador to Kenya, Committee of the Somali Council of Islamic Courts (SCIC), formerly known asICU, Sharif 43,7*88.43&1=*8*&7(-=*7;.(*= 14 13 avoid bloodshed and the destruction of Mogadishu, ICU. ICUThe leadership decided aday before the Mogadishu attack toleave the city in order to 2006. OnDecember 28,2006 Ethiopian troops captur forces of the ICU, agroup that took over power in Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia, in June On December 24,2006, Ethiopian and TFG forces launched a military campaign against the &(0,74:3)a=,**08,**2= = are in Yemen, Djibouti, Kenya, andSomalia. society throughout Somalia orfled to neighboring countries. Some ofthe top leaders of the ICU near the Kenyan border, although most ofits fighters and leaders either simplymelted into January 1,2007, the ICU lostits last stronghold, Ki Author interviewwith senior ICU official and regional sources in the Horn of Africa. Author interviewwith senior ICU official inlate December 2006.

42&1.&a= :77*39= 43).9.438=&3)=7485*(98=+47=&=&89.3,=*&(*= 14 In late January, theChairman ofthe Executive aeda. Islamic Courts officials have repeatedly according to asenior official of the ICU. smaayo, after its forces withdrew toan area ed Mogadishu with little resistance from the 13 On 2= http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL33911 Parliament. Mohamed NurMadobe, a former warlord and an ally ofPresident Abdullahi Yusuf, asSpeaker of 2007. 43,7*88.43&1=*8*&7(-=*7;.(*= 16 15 government hadnot been informed about the air strikes. According toa Yusuf thetold BBCthat wascounterproductivethe raid achieving to peace. He also stated histhat Djibouti, where U.S.forces are currently stationed. Djiboutian Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali governments criticized the U.S. attacks, including officials in Europe and the Government of the bombings andvital water resources were destroyed in Afmadow district. A number of humanitarian group, Oxfam, stated in a press release that an estimated 70 people were killed in the following day, although U.S.officials deny any further attacks by its forces. The British embassy bombings inKenya and Tanzania. Reportedly, theUnited States launched another attack locations in southern Somalia, reportedly tokill the three terror suspects in the 1998 U.S. On January 8,2007, the United States Air Force, using AC-130 gun ships,attacked several Transitional Federal Government. southern Somalia were the warlords who were and in some casesstill are ministers in the current group whenthese allegations were made. Those in charge ofMogadishu and other areas in on many occasions over the years. However, the Islamic Courts did not exist as an organized involved in the bombings of the U.S.embassies in Tanzania and Kenya in1998 have beenmade = negative impact on this process of dialogue.” 2007 that “the no-confidence motion brought against the Parliament Speaker is likely tohave a Mogadishu. U.S. Assistant Secretary ofState for Africa Jendayi Fraser stated inmid-January been active in reaching out and engaging theIslamic Courts officials when they hadcontrol over the Ethiopian intervention and theU.S. air strike, has a strong following in Mogadishu and has Sharif Hassan Sheik Adan, from hisposition. The former Speaker, whohas been a vocal critic of On January 17,2007, the Transitional Federal Parliament ousted the Speaker ofParliament, released in 2008. officials in the region. A number ofKenyan Muslims that were in Ethiopian detention were and TFG security personnel tounknown locations, according to Somali sources and government 30 individuals and returned them toMogadishu, where these detainees were taken by Ethiopian Kenyan sources. In oneparticular case, Kenyan officials reportedly blindfolded and handcuffed dozens ofSomalis and other nationals to officialsTFG and Ethiopian security forces, according to Somali government and the Ethiopian intervention. The government ofKenya has deported supporters of the Islamic Courts, and members of the consideredTFG not supportive of the new forces reportedly have been going houseto arresting Oromos (anEthiopian ethnic group), people refer to as a witch hunt by andTFG Ethiopian security forces. Ethiopian and securityTFG snipers or in ambushes. Some Somalis and human Ethiopian troops have come under attack, andanumber of Ethiopian soldiers have beenkilled by with U.S. forces. inside Somalia. A senior Ethiopian government official denied that there was any coordination intelligence with Ethiopian military andused anairstrip inEastern Ethiopia to launch attacks deployed to Ethiopia and entered Somalia. Moreover, the United States reportedly shared Islamic Union forces. the United States actively coordinated with Ethiopian forces in targeting suspected terrorists and http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6273949.stm Basein Ethiopia Mark “U.S.Used and Gordon Al Mazzetti. Hunt to Michael Qaeda,” 15 U.S.Special Operations troops

42&1.&a= :77*39= 43).9.438=&3)=7485*(98=+47=&=&89.3,=*&(*= 16 In late January, the TFG elected Sheikh Adan rights advocates are concerned over what some from Task Force 88were reportedly New YorkNew Times New York TimesNew York . February 23, article, article, 3= http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL33911 for the Transitional Federal Institutions and authorizing the African Union to establish amission On February 20,2007, the U.N. Security Council passed resolution 1744 reiterating itssupport 43,7*88.43&1=*8*&7(-=*7;.(*= 17 Somalia from Uganda and Burundi. The African Union peacekeeping mission is mandated to: Somalia. As of November 2008,there were an estimated 3,400 AU peacekeeping troops in settlement with groups still outside the TFG, it will be difficult to maintain peace and stability in make serious troop contributions for the mission. Observers contend that without a negotiated Malawi have pledged troops. The African Union is facing difficulties getting governments to contribute troops for apeacekeeping mission in Somalia. Ghana,Nigeria, Burundi, Uganda, and At the African Union Summit inlate January 2007, several African countries pledged to troops to Somalia.” Council Resolution 1725 specifically stated that the African Union to establish “aprotection and trainingmission in Somalia.” U. N. Security the United Nations, authorized theInter-Governmental Authority for Development (IGAD) and the Union of Islamic Courts.” The Security Council, acting underChapter VII oftheCharter of committed to achieving apolitical settlement through peaceful and inclusive dialogue, including the Security Council expressed its “willingness to related measures, and should take all actions necessary toprevent such contravention.” Moreover, particular those in the region, to refrain from any action incontravention of the arms embargo and Charter.” U.N.Security Council Resolution 1725 further called for “all Member States, in institutions andof an inclusive political process, as envisaged in the Transitional Federal Transitional Federal Charter, andstressing the importance of broad-based and representative its commitment toa comprehensive and lasting settlement ofthe situation in Somalia through the On December 6,2006, the United Nations Security Council passed Resolution 1725, “reiterating *&(*0**5.3,=.88.43a=&(0,74:3)= = Communique of the African Union Peace and Security C Security and Peace Union African of the Communique • • • • • • •

defense. protect its personnel, installations and equipment, including the right of self- IDPs, and including therepatriation and reintegration of refugees andthe resettlement of facilitate, asmay berequired andwithin capabilities, humanitarian operations, monitor, in areas of deployment ofits forces, the security situation, disarmament and stabilization efforts, provide, within capabilities and as appropriate, technical andother support to the by some ofSomalia’s bilateral and multilateral partners, Somali security forces, bearing inmind the programs already being implemented Somalia, particularly the effective reestablishment and training ofall inclusive assist in the implementation ofthe National Security andStabilization Plan of enable them carry out their functions, provide, as appropriate, protection to the TFIs andtheir key infrastructure, to support dialogue and reconciliation inSomalia, working withall stakeholders, 17

42&1.&a= :77*39= 43).9.438=&3)=7485*(98=+47=&=&89.3,=*&(*= ouncil 69 countries bordering Somalia “would not deploy engage withall parties in Somalia whoare th Meeting, January 19, 2007. +*= http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL33911 Kill Dozens” 43,7*88.43&1=*8*&7(-=*7;.(*= 18 Somalia becoming asafehaven for terrorists.” United States “will work with those elements that will help us to root out Al Qaeda andprevent in Somalia. Assistant Secretary ofState for Africa, Jendayi Fraser reportedly stated that the that Washington was assisting “responsible individuals” tohelp bring stability and fight terrorism warlords were backed by the United States government. BushThe Administration acknowledged received unusual attention in Somalia and in the region due,in large part, to reports that the of National Security of the TFG, Mohamed Qanyare, attacked oneof the Courts. The fighting fighting inMogadishu erupted when the forces loyal to awell known warlord and then Minister Courts and a self-proclaimed anti-terrorism coalition backed by powerful local warlords. The and displacing manymore people. The surge inviolence wasbetween militia loyal to the Islamic In early 2006,factional violence in Mogadishu once again erupted, killing hundreds ofcivilians -*= 81&2.(= 4:798="3.43= that wasestablished in 1992 by Resolution 733. Member States, especially those in close proximity to Somalia, to comply withthe arms embargo protect those involved in the Reconciliation also authorized peacekeeping forces onthe ground to take allnecessary measures to support and African Union to maintain its operation in Somalia for an additional six months. The resolution The Security Council unanimously adoptedResolution 1772on August 20,2007, authorizing the neighborsin thepeacekeeping resolutionoperation as 1725did. Somalia, did not include a provision that restricts the participation ofSomalia’s immediate civil society.” The resolution, while it welcomed thewithdrawal of Ethiopian troops from stakeholders, including political leaders, clan leaders, religious leaders, and representatives of in Somalia. Resolution 1744 calls for “anational reconciliation congress involving all = positions in the TFG until the Islamic Courts defeated the warlords in Mogadishu. In late July argued then that the didTFG nothing tochallenge these warlords and kept them insenior Minister Ghedi’s government to stop the fighting in Mogadishu. IslamicThe Courts leaders Religious Affairs). The warlords were dismissed because they reportedly ignored calls by Prime (Commerce Minister), Issa Botan Alin (Rehabilitation Minister), and Omar Finnish (Minister for These ministers include Mohamed Qanyare (National Security Minister), Musa Sudi Yalahow Government belonging to ARPCT. 2006, Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedidismissed four ministers from the Transitional Federal agreed toby major all Somali groups under IGADthe peace agreement in2004.In early June many Somali groups as major obstacles to the creation of central authority in Mogadishu, as Muse Sudi Yalahow, Omar Finnish, and Abdirashid Shire Ilqyete. These actors were seen by decade. Members of the Alliance reportedly include Bashir Rage, Mohammed Qanyare Afrah, warlords who contributed to numerous armed clashes and instability inSomalia over thepast was created. Very little is known about ARPCT, On February 18,2006, the Alliance for the Restor government, andresponding tothehumanitarian needs ofthe Somali people. States has three major policygoals in Somalia: counter-terrorism efforts, creation of an effective Peter Goodspeed, “Somalia Looking Like Pre-Taliban Afghanistan: U.S. Backed Warlords, Al Qaeda-Linked Thugs National Post , with filesfrom News Services. May 16,2006.

42&1.&a= :77*39= 43).9.438=&3)=7485*(98=+47=&=&89.3,=*&(*= Congress. Finally, Resolution 1772 called onall 18 In late 2006,June Fraser stated that the United although thefounders of the Alliance are known ation ofPeace and Counter-Terrorism (ARPCT) ++= http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL33911 and IGAD were also and IGADwere invited asobservers. The Contact did Group not invite Somalia’s immediate discuss the unfolding Somalia crisis. UnitedThe Nations, the African Union, the Arab League, United Kingdom, Sweden,Italy, Tanzania, and the European Union, was formed andmet to Inmid-June, anInternational Somalia Contact Group, consisting of the United States, Norway, the United Nations Security Council did provide the necessary exemption in December 2006. on Somalia. BushThe Administration did not support the lifting of the arms embargo, although of the refusal of the United Nations Security Council to remove aUnitedNations arms embargo Somalia under auspicesthe theof IGAD. deploymentThe did not take place largein because part African Union had approved aproposal for Uganda and Sudan to deploy apeacekeeping force to by someIslamic Courts leaders as being unnecessary and counter-productive. Earlier, in 2005, the transitional parliament voted infavor of a foreign peacekeeping force. But this move was rejected based transitional government, although disagreement on key issues remained. In June 2006, the rejected negotiations. IslamicThe Courts leaders not lead to a major breakthrough, although the talks ended speculation that the Islamic Courts Negotiations between the Transitional Federal Government andthe Islamic Courts inSudan did effectively ledto the collapse of the ARPCT and forced thewarlords to flee. Qanyare andother warlords, according toasenior trucks). The Islamic Courts group hadonly four parts of Mogadishu, with heavy weaponsand“technicals” (machine-guns mounted onpickup Courts did notmaintain a large fighting force. The important roles. Since the Islamic Courts largely functioned as providers of social services, the bringing peace and stability. During the Mogadishu fighting, women supporters of ICU played provided crucial support by feeding their forces women. According toSomali sources in Mogadis the group had constituencies frommultiple sub-clans and hadbroad support among Somali controlled. The level of support enjoyed by theIslamic Courts is difficult to measure, although relatively peaceful, and the Islamic Courts received support from thepopulation in areas it and Beledweyne inmid-June 2006. Moreover, for the first time inyears, Mogadishu became the defeat of the warlords in Mogadishu. IslaThe The forces of the Islamic Courts Union strengthened and expanded areas under their control after 43,7*88.43&1=*8*&7(-=*7;.(*= 20 19 purposes.” of times that America’s talk ofterrorism inSomalia is fabricated and serves suspicious political “we are not terrorists and wewill not allow anyone to hijack thecapital. We have said hundreds was associated with or had harbored international terrorist elements, Shaykh Ahmed stated that group wouldnegotiate with the TFG. In response to accusations that the Islamic Courts Union to flee the capital. The chairman ofthe Islamic Courts, Sharif Shaykh Ahmed, stated that his In early June 2006, the forces of the Islamic Courts captured Mogadishu, forcing ARPCT militia cannot fight terrorism by supporting warlords.” member ofthe parliamentTFG told a U.S.Congressional delegation in August 2006 that “you and provided support to the warlords, the same warlords who obstructed peace in Somalia. A 2006, members ofthe TFG parliament complained that theU.S.government bypassed the TFG = 2006. “Somali Islamic Courts Leader Comments on Domestic S Domestic on Comments Leader Courts Islamic “Somali The author metwith several Members of Parliament and the TFG Foreign Minister in Kenya inAugust 2006. 20

42&1.&a= :77*39= 43).9.438=&3)=7485*(98=+47=&=&89.3,=*&(*= 19 technicalswhen thefighting eruptedwith and working withIslamic Courts officials in

ituation, Future Outlook.” Al-Ashraq Al-Awsat. June 6, mic Courts forces captured the towns of Jowhar hu and Islamic Courtsofficials, the people stated that they wouldwork with theBaidoa- Courts official. ICUThe success inMogadishu warlordsmaintained a robust forcedifferent in +,= http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL33911 Somali residents in Mogadishu. decade ofviolence they can live in peace. official. Most important, they argue, they gave hopeto thepeople of Somalia that after over a almost sixteen years when the Courts restored orde owners. For example, the family ofPresident Yusuf reportedly returned to Mogadishu after did more than restore law and order. Properties taken by warlords were returned to the rightful from working.Islamic Courts officials point out th fighting late at night. There isno evidence to support the allegation that women wereprohibited Somali residents in Mogadishu. This measure was reportedly taken because of disturbances and restrictions onwatching soccer games late at night, according toIslamic Courts officials and 43,7*88.43&1=*8*&7(-=*7;.(*= 21 affairs of the Courts. Some observers and government officials have erroneously described Aweys Courts, wasappointed chairman oftheCouncil’ designated by the Bush Administration as a terr leaders of the now-defunct Al-Ittihad Al-Islamiya (AIAI—for more see below) and was Hassan Dahir Aweys waselected to head the Legislative Council. Aweys wasone of the top Courts established a consultative body tofunction as the legislative (Shura) arm ofthe Courts. be considered extremist, according toa senior State Department official. In late June 2006, the Islamic Courts by U.S. officials was that less than 5percent of the Islamic Courts leadership can observers without much evidence to support the allegations. For example, the assessment of the sketchy. The leadership was often referred to as jihadist, extremist, and at times terrorist by some General knowledge of the top leadership of the So 81&2.(= 4:798= -*=#*&)*78-.5=4+=9-*=42&1.= 4:3(.1=4+=9-*== to movies inthe morning instead of school. banned in the morning in response to requests from parents because Somali children weregoing and not because of the Courts’ alleged jihadist and extremist ideology. For example, movies were from working. Some ofthese measures were taken by theCourts, although fordifferent reasons extremist and jihadist. The ICU wasaccused of shutting downcinemas andprohibiting women bad press coverage, especially in the West. Courts’The activities were often characterized as The Islamic Courts, while well received by the people inthe areas the Courts controlled, received other political groups who reject violence and extremism belaunched without delay.” reconciliation embracing representative clan, religious, business, civil society, women’s, and strongly urging thatit is “essential that an inclusive process of political dialogue and early January 2007,the International Contact Group on Somalia issued another communique stability, and address the international community’s to address the humanitarian needs of the Somali people, establish effective governance and Group will seek to support efforts, within the framework ofthe Transitional Federal Institutions, support the implementation ofthe Transitional Federal Charter and Institutions. The Contact to encourage positive political developments and engagement with actors inside Somali to first meeting, theContact Group stated that “the goal of theInternational Contact Group will be engaged inactivities in support of or against some groups in Somalia. In apress release after its neighbors, in part due toSomali opposition and international concern that these countries are = The author had over 25 conversations between July 2006and March 2007 with senior Islamic Courts officials and

42&1.&a= :77*39= 43).9.438=&3)=7485*(98=+47=&=&89.3,=*&(*= 21 The ban on television did not take place, except for orist. Sharif Sheik Ahmed, theleader of the s Executives Committee toleadthe day-to-day mali Council of the Islamic Courts (SCIC) is at in theshort time they were in power, they r in the capital, according to an Islamic Courts concern regarding terrorism.” Meanwhile, in +-= http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL33911 43,7*88.43&1=*8*&7(-=*7;.(*= against Ethiopia and Abdullahi Yusuf in the mid-1990s. fought in the Ethiopia-Somalia wars in the 1970 Hassan Dahir Aweys. -*="*,.81&9.;*=4:3(.1=47=-:7&= including Vice President for Academic Affairs and President; married with three children. University from 1981to 1992; held several positions at Benadir University inMogadishu, the SCIC; Ph.D.,MA,BA from American Univer Hassan Ibrahim Addou. scholar, and advocated against abuses by thewarlords. Omar.Abdulqadir Ali advocate of peace and clan unity; never active in politics. MuhamoudFarah. Abdurahman children. Now, Chairman ofthe ARS. Somali Council of Islamic Courts (SCIC); never of Somali Intellectuals Associations; President of the District Court in Jowhar; President of SharifSheikh Ahmed. -*= =*(:9.;*=4:3(.1= -*=45=#*&)*78=4+=9-*= 4:798= attacks and is now in control ofmany parts of south-central Somalia. Ayro was killed in aU.S. air strike. Since the killing of Ayro, the insurgency hasintensified its Somaliland as well as a Somali scholar in Mogadishu named Abdulqadir Yahya. In May 2008, of that group. Ayro was suspected of killing four aid workers in the breakaway region of leader of the Shibaab, the Youth, although there is no evidence to support that he was the leader since hedid not have aleadership position in the organization. Ayro was often referred to as the activities against U.S. orwestern interests. Ayro’s role within the Courts was highly exaggerated Al-Ittihad. There is nopublic record to support that these individuals were engaged in terrorist organization. Both Aweys and Al-Turki were placed on the list because of their membership in Ittihad. According toCourts officials, Al-Turki didnot even hold a leadership position within the of Ethiopia, was listed by the Bushadministration as a terrorist because of his membership in Al- and influenced by these individuals. Al-Turki, aman bornin the ethnically Somali Ogaden region Hassan Al-Turki, and Aden Ayro, may have beento show theIslamic Courts as agroup controlled academics (see below). The focus by some observers and officials on three individuals, Aweys, The leadership of the Islamic Courts remained largely under the control of religious scholars and image. Courts wasdeliberately designed by some groups and governments togive the Courts abad never replaced by Aweys. Some observers argued that referring to Aweys as the leader of the as the leader of the Courts. However, themoderate leader of the Courts, Sharif Sheik Ahmed, was = Speaker of the Shura. Former army officer in the Somali Armed Forces; Received aLaw Degree from aUniversity inLibya; served asPresident Vice President of SCIC. Longtime advocate ofclan unity; religious Foreign Secretary andamember ofthe Shura (Legislative Council) of Vice President of SCIC. Studied in Mogadishu; a longtime 42&1.&a= :77*39= 43).9.438=&3)=7485*(98=+47=&=&89.3,=*&(*= s; former senior member of Al-Ittihad; fought been active inpolitics; married with two sity, Washington,D.C.; Worked at American +.= http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL33911 43,7*88.43&1=*8*&7(-=*7;.(*= 1976 during the Mengistu Haile Mariammilitary rule. In the first war, the Ethiopian military been poor. Somalia invaded Ethiopia twice in the 1960s under Emperor Haile Selassie and in For over four decades, relations between successive Ethiopian governments and Somalia have (9-.45.&842&1.&=)*1&9.438= lived in the United States; succeeded his father after his death in 1996. He left Somalia in2007. from 2005toFebruary 7,2007; son of former faction leader Mohamed Farah Aideed; studied and Hussein Farah Aideed. commander of the Somali National Front (SNF). Alliance; Studied at West Point and served as army Colonel in the Barre regime; former Barre Adan Shire Hiiraale. Chairman of the RRA. MuhammadHassan Nur Shatigadud. TFG. as the Deputy Chairman of the Rahanweyn Resistan Adan Mohamed Nur Madobe. reconciliationefforts. He joined the 2007.ARS in President Yusuf; initiated negotiations with Courts position in January 2007; vocal critic of Ethiopia’s intervention; had serious disagreements with Hassan SheikSharif Adan. or political groups. Ghedi was replaced by Mr. Nur Adde in late 2007. training; alecturer and researcher at the Somali National University; noaffiliation with warlords Ali Mohamed Ghedi. Puntland until 2001. Mengistu regime by thecurrent government; leader of the autonomous northeastern region of military dictator Mengistu Hailemariam in1985and released in 1991 after the ouster of the of the first armed groups against Siad Barre imprisoned by SiadBarre; attempted acoup against Barre in 1978 and later fled Somalia; led one YusufAbdullahi Ahmed. #*&)*78-.5=4+=9-*=7&38.9.43&1=%*)*7&1=&4;*732*39= Muhamoud Ibrahim Suleh. Canada for many years. servant in the Siad Barre government; received an Ali Afrah. Abdulahi Mauritania and Somalia for many years. member ofthe Shura; received hisPh.D. from Omar Imam Abubakar. = Senior leader in the Shura. Holds aBA in Agriculture, longtime civil Prime Minister of the TFG. Studied in Somalia and Italy; A veterinarian by Minister of Public Works and Housing. Served as Minister ofInterior Number twoin the Shura and effectively themost influential and active President of the TFG. A former senior army officer in Somalia; Former Speaker of Transitional Federal Parliament. Ousted from his Minister of defense. Served as the Chairman ofthe Juba Valley Senior member oftheShura, son of awell known religious leader. Speaker of Parliament of the TFG. A former warlord and served Minister of Finance of the TFG; a known warlord and 42&1.&a= :77*39= 43).9.438=&3)=7485*(98=+47=&=&89.3,=*&(*= with Ethiopian support; imprisoned by Ethiopian a University inSaudi Arabia; lectured in MA from aUniversity in the U.S. andlived in leadership; abusinessman and anadvocate of ce Army (RRA) andas Justice Minister of the +/= http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL33911 43,7*88.43&1=*8*&7(-=*7;.(*= Ethiopiaof andthat Abdullahi Yusuf. Courts, Sheik Aweys, islinked to Aweys’ role as one of the leaders of Al-Ittihad fighting against the 1990s. EthiopianThe government’s animosity towards the ousted Shura leader of the Islamic president of the TFG was strengthened when Yusuf backed Ethiopia’s efforts against Al-Ittihad in often maintained presence inside Somali territory. Ethiopia’s relationship with the current remained stable. Ethiopian forces attacked Somalia a number oftimes over the past decade and united Somalia did not pose athreat to Ethiopia concerned with domestic issues. Ethiopia’s principal interest at that time wasto ensure that a Ittihad, a fairly new group at that time. Hence, some observers view Al-Ittihad as a group largely central government stronghold. Members of the ONLF fled toSomalia and were embraced by Al- down onthe organization, and moved theEthiopian Somali Region capital from Godeto Jijiga, a In theearly 1990s, Ethiopian security forces assassinated anumber of ONLFleaders, cracked the ONLFpush for self determination created te Transitional Charter provided nations and nationalities the right to self determination; however, Ethiopia. The ONLF joined the transitional government ofEthiopia in part because theEthiopian down onthe Ogaden National Liberation Front, amember ofthe first transitional government of with Al-Ittihad was triggered in the early 1990swhen Ethiopian security forces brutally cracked security forces have violently retaliated against these groups and their supporters. The fighting Al-Ittihad andONLF carried outa number of attacks against Ethiopian targets, and Ethiopian activities in support of the ONLF. ONLF. For most of the 1990s, Ethiopia’s primary concern was Al-Ittihad in Somalia and its ended support for Ethiopian armed groups, although some Somali factions continue to support the The ouster of the Siad Barre government andthe absence of a central government inSomalia Front (ONLF) and the Oromo Liberation Front (O carried Somali-issued passports. Other rebel gr received assistance from Somali authorities and a number of the EPRDF leaders reportedly ruling party ofEthiopia, the Ethiopian People The Barre government was also a major sponsor of Ethiopian armed rebel groups. The current Abdullahi Yusuf, Hussein Aideed, and other Somali factions. backer of anumber of Somali factions and leaders, including thecurrent president ofthe TFG, Ethiopia’s intervention in Somali affairs. The current government ofEthiopia became akey Somalia, currently known asSomaliland. The change of government inEthiopia did notend backer of the Somali National Movement (SNM), the group that liberated the northwest region of first senior officials to challenge theSiad Barre government. Ethiopia was also the principal the first to receive Ethiopia’s assistance after he fled Somalia in the late 1970s. He was oneof the current president of the Transitional Federal Gove and successive governments onboth sides supported each others’ armed opposition groups. The Both Ethiopian and Somali governments intervened in the internal affairs of the two countries, of Ethiopia. Somalithe rebel forces remainedin control of re of Cuban and South Yemeni forces, were able to defeat theSomali forces, although elements of the third largest city,EasternEthiin Dire Dawa, leading to the capture of many Ethiopian towns of Ethiopia by Somali forces and Western Somali Liberation Front (WSLF) initially succeeded, was rejected by theEmperor, andhe wasordered to remain behind the border. The 1976 invasion commander General Aman Andom defeated Somali forces, but his request togo inside Somalia = 42&1.&a= :77*39= 43).9.438=&3)=7485*(98=+47=&=&89.3,=*&(*= ’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), oups, including theOgaden National Liberation by Somali forces. Somali forces briefly captured nsion between the ruling EPRDFandthe ONLF. opia. However,Ethiopian forces,with thesupport and that the Somali-inhabited-region of Ethiopia moteareas inthelargely Somali inhabited areas rnment, President Abdullahi Yusuf, wasone of LF), also received assistance from Somalia. +0= http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL33911 43,7*88.43&1=*8*&7(-=*7;.(*= Subsequently, theCairo initiative failed whenyet another peace conference was convened by government ofEgypt convened another meeting of the Somali groups in Cairo in 1997. participated, although a few boycotted the peace process. The Sodere process collapsed when the process in the resort town of Sodere, Ethiopia. Many political actors and armed factions the failure of peace efforts in Somalia. In 1996,the Government ofEthiopia convened a peace about lasting peace inSomalia. Moreover, competing efforts by international actors contributed to United Nations, orgovernments inthe Horn of Africa. These efforts have largely failed to bring Somalia since the early 1990s. Some wereheld under the auspices of or were supported by the There have been 14 Somali reconciliation or peace conferences to bring anend to the fighting in *&(*=74(*88*8= based factions. without a central government and has been splintered into several regions controlled by clan- peacekeepers. Since the withdrawal of United Nations forces in March 1995, Somalia has been completely pulled out ofSomalia and,one year later, the United Nations pulled out the remaining Clinton ordered the withdrawal ofU.S. troops from Somalia. In March1994, the United States U.S. troops and Somali factions in Mogadishu, in by oneofthe factions in Mogadishu. OnOct SomaliaOperation in (UNOSOM) II.IIIn May attacked 1993,UNOSOM forces coalition were handed over the operation to theUnited Nations. The U.N. effort was known as United Nations and enabled NGOsto safely provide humanitari The U.S.-led United Task Force (UNITAF) succes population. civilian suffering the Somali to assistance humanitarian efforts provide to and their (NGOs) Operation Restore Hope, using theU.S.military, tosafeguard non-governmental organizations by continued internal chaos. OnNovember 9,1992, then-President George H.W. Bush authorized An estimated 500,000 people died from violence, starvation, and disease as Somalia waswracked prevented food andmedicine from reaching innocent civilians suffering from drought andfamine. Mogadishu, rival Somali groups engaged in armed struggle for personal political power and ousted from powerby several Somali armed groups. Following thecollapse of central authority in In 1991,General Mohamed SiadBarre, whocame topower through amilitary coup in1969, was 42&1.&a=&(0,74:3)=+33+8,**0= same labels of extremist, terrorist, and anti-peace to groups that were dominant at that time. report was released twoyears before the Islamic Courts emerged, although the report gave the also recommends apolicy of targeting those armed elements that threaten Ethiopian security. This policy ofengagement andsupport to Puntland andSomaliland, according tothe report. The report order to reduce the threat from some parts of Somalia, the Ethiopian government must pursue a has allowed anti-peace and extremists elements tobecome strong, posing a threat to Ethiopia. In longer poses a serious threat toEthiopia. The repo “at this time theGreater Somalia agenda has failed.” Moreover, theGreater Somalia agenda no Somalia attacked Ethiopia twice in pursuit of its Greater Somalia ambition. The report notes that of issues, including Ethiopia’s assessment of its relations with Somalia. The report states that Ethiopia’s Foreign Policy, Security Policy and Strategy In 2004,thegovernment of Ethiopia released a report, = 42&1.&a= :77*39= 43).9.438=&3)=7485*(98=+47=&=&89.3,=*&(*= ober 3, 1993, after aseventeen-hour battle between an In toSomalis. relief May 1993, UNITAF which 18U.S.Rangers were killed, President rt contendsthat thefactionalizationofSomalia sfully subduedthe warlords and armed factions the Federal Democratic Republic of . The 158-page report covers a wide range +1= http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL33911 43,7*88.43&1=*8*&7(-=*7;.(*= phase focused on issues such as power sharing, governance, sharing ofnatural resources, sea phase of the conference focused on the resolution of clan conflicts and disarmament, the second lead the process of reviving Somalia from theashes of the vicious civil war.” Whereas the first already been signed…The transitional government declaration of peace agreement betweenmajor clans who are participating inthe congress has phase of the conference at a newsconference in Ambassador to Kenya Mohammed Ali Nur spoke optimistically about the results of the first reasons. The first phase of the conference came toan end on August 30, 2007.Somali district of Mogadishu on July 15,2007after being postponed twice for logistical and security Somalia’s recent peace effort, the National Reconciliation Congress, convened in the Shagaani $&9.43&1=!*(43(.1.&9.43=%43+*7*3(*= authority inMogadishu. defeat of the warlords by the Islamic Courtspaved the way forthe establishment of central dominate many partsof Somalia until late December 2006. Some observers contend that the of the transitional government to establish effective control allowed warlords and clan factions to some ofthese warlords signed the agreement and were ministers in the government. The inability move toMogadishu in large part due to opposition from thewarlords in Mogadishu, even though prime minister. The transitional government, however, was not able to function effectively or In November 2004,President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed appointed Professor Ali Mohamed Gedias representatives from regional organizations and the United Nations. The swearing in ceremonywas attended by 11 heads of government from African countries and Somali Transitional Parliament elected Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed asthe new president of Somalia. legislation. In fact, previous Somali constitutions had similar provisions. In October2004, the Islam asthenational religion andagreed that for the small clans. The Charter also allocated 12% of the seats to women. CharterThe accepted clans ofSomalia. The Transitional Charter allocated 61 seats for the major four clans and 31seats memberparliament consistsmajor of the political factionsand seemsto represent allthemajor In August 2004,anew Transitional Somali Parliament wasinaugurated in Kenya. The 275- government. the parties agreed ona Transitional National Charter, paving theway foraNational Unity a federal system ofgovernment and committed themselves to fight terrorism.In September 2003, agreed to respect and honor theoutcome of the conference. partiesThe further agreed to establish conference.firstInthe of theconference, phase theparties signeda temporary cease-fire, and the conference in the Kenyan townof Eldoret. The Government ofSomaliland boycotted the estimated 350 delegates from different regions of Somalia participated in the opening session of Authority for Development launched another peace process, led by thegovernment of Kenya. An Abdulqassim Salad Hassan as president of the TNG. In October 2002, the Inter-Governmental (TNG) and a Transitional National Assembly (TNA). On August 26,2000, participants nominated On August 13,2000, participants agreed to the creation ofa Transitional National Government SomalilandPuntland. and Arta process was boycotted by several powerful warlords, aswell as the governments of opened in Arta, Djibouti in which 400 delegates took part for several months of deliberation. The proposed by thegovernment ofDjibouti. In May 2000,theSomali Reconciliation Conference Somali factions in Bosaso, Somalia in 1998. In February 2000,IGAD approved a peace plan = 42&1.&a= :77*39= 43).9.438=&3)=7485*(98=+47=&=&89.3,=*&(*= Sharia Nairobi, Kenya: “I am happy toannounce the has done and will continue doing itsbest to law wouldbe the basis of national +2= http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL33911 43,7*88.43&1=*8*&7(-=*7;.(*= Department’s 2006 perceived as agroup dominated by Hawiye clanbusinessmen. According tothe State players in the establishment ofthese courts. Very little is known about al-Islah, although itis the Mogadishu-based former Transitional National Government (TNG) reportedly werekey SIC’s principal objective was to establish group ofSomalis later formed the Pakistan, Kenya, andSudan. Notmuch washeard group claimed at that time that it maintained offices in several countries, including Yemen, General Mohamed Farah Aideed and Ali Mahdi, an ultimatum toendtheir factional fighting. The Islam, ledby Sheikh Abbas binOmar, emerged inMogadishu, and gave thetwomain warlords, Al-Islah (Reform), and Al-Tabligh (Conveyers of whose prominence has alternately waxed and waned: Al-Ittihad Al-Islamiya (mentioned below), these groups, including Al-Ittihad. There have been three known Islamic groups in Somalia disappear from thescene. Very little is known about the leadership or organizational structure of Somali factions, including the so-called Islamic groups, often go through realignments or simply activities of Al-Ittihad and its allies or in support of certain armed factions. the country. Ethiopian security forces invaded Somalia onanumber of occasions to disrupt the in Somalia created an environment conducive to the proliferation of armed factions throughout security forces for these courts in the areas AIAI hadapresence. The absence of central authority Members of the Al-Ittihad militia (see background below) reportedly provided the bulk of the functioned as local governments andoften enforced decisions by using their own Islamic militia. began toemerge inparts of the country, especially in the capital of Mogadishu. These courts years about the spread of Islamic fundamentalism inSomalia. In themid-1990s, Islamic courts The United States, Somali neighbors, and some Somali groups have expressed concern over the 42&1.&a=&+*=.&;*3=+47=*7747.89=&74:58
= issues since the Congress ended its meeting inlate 2007. piracy, welfare, and internally displaced persons. The didTFG not take steps to address these = attacks against the U.S. or its allies. Saleh Nabhan, and Talha al-Sudani. But noSomali group hasbeen directly linked toany terrorist some ofthese individuals, including HaroonFa East Africa. Some observers contend that Somalia is being used as a transit and hiding place by U.S. officials have long expressed concern about the presence of known terrorist individuals in commercial services, and were perceived by some aspursuing astrategy totake political power.” political activism. Other Islamist organizations Islamists, such as followers ofthe Tablighi sect rather than violent means and pursued political action via missionary orcharity work. Missionary (ASWJ), and Majma Ulimadda Islaamka eeSoomaaliya (Majma’) sought power by political to terrorist activities. Movements suchas Harakat al-Islah (al-Islah), Ahlu Sunna wal Jamaa broad range of activities operate inside Somalia, few of these organizations have any known links Country Reports on Terrorism Sharia 42&1.&a= :77*39= 43).9.438=&3)=7485*(98=+47=&=&89.3,=*&(*= (Islamic law) Implementation Club (SIC) in1996. Sharia and the “NewSalafis” generally renounce explicit zul, the leader of the 1998 and 2002 bombings, became providers of basic health, education, and courtsthroughout thecountry.membersSome of God’s Work). In 1995,agroup called Jihad al- , “while numerous Islamist groups engaged ina subsequently from Jihad al-Islam, although a +3= http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL33911 Strike,” May 17-23, 1999. 43,7*88.43&1=*8*&7(-=*7;.(*= 22 Western Somalia, their term fortheSomali-inhabited region of Ethiopia. Muhammad Ibrahim Haji Hussein formed acoalition called the United Front for the Liberation of leadership of Ahmed Ali Ismail, andthe Western Somali Liberation Front under the leadership of leadership ofMuhammadMuallemOmar Abdi, carrying outattacks against Ethiopian target Ethiopian groups are active inthe Somali region and Al-Ittihad cooperated with these groups in Ittihad was reportedly engaged inmilitary activities in support of ethnic Somalis. Several anti- activities in support of armed groups in the Somali-inhabited region of Ethiopia. In Ethiopia, Al- Al-Ittihad’s social activities andreligious objectives in Somalia seemed inconsistent with its communities through Islamic schools and health care centers. ideology through military means andbegan to concentrate on providing social services to ideology ledtoa shift in strategy inthemid-1990s. Al-Ittihad abandoned its ambition to spread its time totime with Al-Ittihad. Al-Ittihad’s failure to been at odds with Al-Ittihad, even though some ofthese groups maintained tactical alliances from Somalia. The clan-based groups and factions led by warlords in Mogadishu are secular andhave its control in the south. But Al-Ittihad never emerged as amajor military orpolitical force in In theearly 1990s, Al-Ittihad hadmodest successes; for example, it administered territories under 1990s, Al-Ittihad unsuccessfully sought to replace clan and warlord politics with an Islamic state. bring law and order by utilizing theIslamic court system. Foundedinthe late 1980s and early Al-Ittihad is anIslamic group whose principal ideology was toestablish anIslamic state and to Al-Ittihad was perhaps the most active and at one point most successful of all the Islamic groups. 18$99.-&)= = the dominant players in Mogadishu were the warlords and not Al-Ittihad. In early November seems inconsistent with the reality onthe ground at that time, according to some observers. Then, U.S. presence inSomalia during Operation Re its allegations, but some officials asserted that links between AIAI and Al Qaeda date back to the Al-Ittihad of links with Al Qaeda. The Administration did not publicly offer evidence supporting entities whose assets were frozen by an Executive Order. Bush Administration officials accused In lateSeptember 2001, the Bush Administration added Al-Ittihad to a list of terrorism-related Al-Ittihad’s social services and the peace and stability that prevailed in the areas it controlled. there was no apparent relationship between the NIF and Al-Ittihad. Many Somalis often refer to Sudanese regime didback regional extremist groups and international terrorist organizations, but region would be the NIF regime inSudan or the Sudanese-backed Eritrean Islamic Jihad. The observers note that if Al-Ittihad had a clear internationally-oriented agenda, its obvious ally inthe agenda aswas the case with theNational Islamic Front (NIF) government ofSudan. Some is no reliable information or pattern of behavior to suggest that Al-Ittihad had an international existence of acoherent entity operating as AIAI (Al-Ittihad) has become difficult to prove.” There State Department’s information about its alleged links with international terrorist organizations is unreliable. The Many Somali watchers believe that Al-Ittihad’s strength was highly exaggerated and that with other Ethiopian opposition groups. Liberation Front was engaged inmilitary activities in the region, and in the past formed alliances

Foreign Broadcast Information Services(FBIS) Country Reports on Terrorism

42&1.&a= :77*39= 43).9.438=&3)=7485*(98=+47=&=&89.3,=*&(*= . “Islamists Regroup Their Forces After Ethiopian Preemptive s. In 1999, the Ogaden Islamic Union under the store Hope (1992-1994). This assertion, however, the Somali People’s Liberation Front under the stated in2006 that “in recent years the maintain control over territories andspread its 22 The Ogaden National ,*= http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS-RL33911 43,7*88.43&1=*8*&7(-=*7;.(*= International Foundation of Sweden. decision taken by the EUCouncil to freeze peacekeeping operation in 1994. In September 2008, the European Court of Justice annulled the The United States has had no presence in Somalia since Washington pulled out of the although noattacks against U.S. interests have been carried out by any known groups. Somali Nonetheless, the Bush Administration remains concerned about terrorist activities in Somalia, the U.S. Treasury Department list of terrorist supporters and their assets were also unfrozen. branches accused of ties with Al Qaeda. The three individuals and businesses were removed from Al Qaeda.In September 2002, U.S.officials cleared three Somalis and three Al-Barakaat Barakaat and individuals associated with the mone Al Qaeda.U.S. officials, however, later seemed toback off from their earlier assertion that Al- The Bush Administration ordered the assets of Al-Barakaat frozen because of its alleged links to States operated by Al-Barakaat Companies. 2001, federal authorities raided several Somali-owned money transfer businesses in theUnited = Figure 1.Major Somali and Clans Subclans 42&1.&a= :77*39= 43).9.438=&3)=7485*(98=+47=&=&89.3,=*&(*= the assets of twoSomalis and Al-Barakaat y transfer business sector are directly linked to ,+=

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