UK £2 Issue 220, Year 5 September 1, 2019 EU €2.50 www.thearabweekly.com Turkey’s military Tunisia on eve Cairo wary woes at home of presidential about Gaza and abroad violence Page 15 elections Pages 12-13 Page 11 With wave of strikes, Israel starts new phase in war on Iranian proxies ► Israel’s message to Iraqi militias is that “we are capable of reaching you and we have the support of other Iraqi groups,” said Haider al-Safi, a BBC Arabic producer.

Mamoon Alabbasi the second-largest number of seats in parliament, said the Iraqi govern- ment would file a complaint against London Israel with the UN Security Council. “Some of the government inves- eported Israeli attacks tigations have reached a conclusion against Iran-backed mili- that the perpetrator behind some of tary sites in Iraq, Lebanon the attacks is absolutely, certainly R and Syria increased ten- Israel,” Asadi said August 30. “The sions in a region on edge over the government is preparing sufficient standoff between Iran and the Unit- evidence and documents to com- ed States but it also appears to have plain to the Security Council.” prompted renewed political infight- Observers said the strikes in Iraq ing in Baghdad. carried a twin message from Israel. Israel confirmed it hit a military “Israel’s message to Iran is that target in Syria August 24, saying it ‘we are aware of your movements pre-empted a drone attack planned and we know the political affilia- by Iran’s elite al-Quds Force against tion of Iran’s militias in Iraq.’ Israel’s Israeli territories. message to Iraqi militias is that ‘we Israel did not confirm or deny are capable of reaching you and involvement in drone attacks Au- we have the support of other Iraqi gust 25 against Iran-backed militant groups’,” said Haider al-Safi, a BBC groups in Lebanon and Iraq but Is- Arabic producer and author of “Ira- raeli Prime Minister Binyamin Ne- qi Media: From Saddam’s Propagan- tanyahu said he “gave the security da to American State-Building.” forces a free hand and instructed Safi said Washington is sending them to do anything necessary to a message, too. “By turning a blind thwart Iran’s plans.” eye to the Israeli raid, the US is stat- Shifting tactics. A Lebanese Army soldier walks past forensic investigators inspecting the scene Both the Lebanese Hezbollah ing that Iran’s allies (in Iraq) are a where two drones crashed in the vicinity of a media centre of the Shia Hezbollah movement in movement and the Iraqi Popular legitimate target,” he said. southern Beirut, August 25. (AFP) Mobilisation Forces (PMF) blamed The Iraqi government, led by Israel for the drone attacks and Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi, vowed to retaliate. reiterated that it does not want to “We have evidence that shows increased calls for the withdrawal tias from Syria. “Iraq is more worthy While Israel had frequently tar- be involved in a conflict between the US has brought four Israeli of US troops in Iraq. Observers said of the blood of its own people,” he geted pro-Iranian forces — whether Iran and the United States but it has drones into Iraq. The US is using the the suspected Israeli strikes could posted on Twitter. Syrian, Lebanese, Iraqi, Afghan struggled to keep the PMF under drones to target the PMF and Iraqi put US interests in Iraq at greater The developments highlighted or other — inside Syria, it has not control. bases, rather than targeting (the risk. the use of advanced drone war- been involved in a major operation The strikes against the PMF wid- Islamic State),” Muhandis said in “It is the Americans who will face fare by Israel as well as Iran and its against Lebanon since 2006 and ened the rift the Iran-backed militia a statement. “We have the right to the retaliation of Iraqi militias be- proxies. While Israelis fear being Iraq since 1981. UN officials warned leaders and the government, which defend ourselves. From now on we cause the Israelis are unreachable targeted by enemy drones, Israel that the latest tensions could deal observers said is already threatened will target any drone flying over our (from Iraq). The attacks will reach has benefited from deploying the “a huge blow” to Iraq or “lead to a by the rising tensions between Teh- bases.” the Americans in Iraq while Israel unmanned aerial vehicles in the new conflict” between Israel and ran and Washington. In a rare move, Muhandis’s re- won’t be affected,” said Sadeq al- region: they won’t need to coordi- Lebanon. “The Iraqi government is really marks were contradicted by PMF Taai, an Ira­qi writer and researcher nate with the Russians in Syria nor PMF bases and arms depots in under great pressure from all sides. Chairman Falih Alfayyadh, who is in London. inform the United States of their ac- Iraq were targeted at least five times Abdul-Mahdi has been struggling to also allied with Iran. In a statement, Influential Iraqi cleric Muqtada tions in Iraq. in July and August. Speaking to the survive,” said Baghdad-based jour- Alfayyadh said Muhandis’s remarks al-Sadr, whose political bloc has the New York Times, US officials con- nalist Suadad al-Salhy. were personal and did not represent largest number of seats in parlia- Mamoon Alabbasi is Deputy firmed Israel had been behind sev- PMF Deputy Chairman Abu Mahdi the official policy of the PMF, which ment, warned Iraqi militias against Managing Editor and Online eral attacks in Iraq. al-Muhandis held the United States he said takes its orders from the any “irresponsible” action that Editor of The Arab Weekly. Ahmad Al Asadi, a spokesman for — an ally of the Iraqi government — prime minister. would harm Iraq. He reiterated his Iran-backed Fatah bloc, which has responsible for the drone attacks. Pro-Iranian politicians and clerics call for the withdrawal of Iraqi mili- P2-3,9 Morocco, Spain reactivate border control cooperation but migrants keep trying

Saad Guerraoui grants made it into Ceuta. lion approved by the European Un- to counter illegal migration flows. which is playing a major role in help- A previous attempt, in August ion last year for Rabat’s efforts to Spain plans to remove the ing curb illegal migration. 2018, by sub-Saharan migrants curb illegal immigration. barbed-wire fencing around Ceuta “Meanwhile, Spain and the EU Oued Daouiyat charging Ceuta’s heavily fortified Every year, thousands of African and Melilla before the end of the are equipping and financing Mo- border ended with the migrants migrants, including Moroccans, year, opting for other technologies roccan border guards to outsource ll was quiet at the border sent back to Morocco, sparking try to cross into Spanish enclaves to prevent migrants’ illegal pas- control of barbed wire from Ceuta between the Spanish en- condemnation from human rights of Ceuta and Melilla. sage from Morocco. and Melilla. Never has North/ clave of Ceuta and Mo- groups. Approximately 50 mi- Some of them climb the 6-metre South “cooperation” on migrant A rocco amid heavy security grants forced their way into Melilla tall barbed-wire fences separat- hunting been so successful,” Ger- along the long, barbed-wire fence last May during a mass attempt. ing the Spanish enclaves from the The Spanish government man journalist Olivier Cyran post- preventing African migrants from Morocco and Spain have reac- Moroccan territory to make it to approved aid of $35.7 million ed on Twitter. crossing into the European Union’s tivated bilateral security agree- Europe. Others choose a more per- to Rabat in addition to $28.8 The Spanish government’s goal only land border, besides Melilla, ments, allowing the quick return ilous journey by sea, braving the million previously granted to of reducing illegal immigration by with Africa. of migrants to Morocco after illegal strong currents of the connecting Morocco. half in 2019 is getting closer amid a “It has been very quiet for sev- crossings into Ceuta and Melilla. Atlantic Ocean with the Mediter- 39% drop, El Pais reported. eral months here. We haven’t seen Spain has become the number ranean. This year, Spain has become the Rabat has stopped 42,000 peo- African migrants for quite some one target for African migrants af- A total of 859 migrants died in second main entry point for illegal ple, 80% of whom would-be bor- time,” said Mohammed from the ter Italy sealed its borders, prompt- the Mediterranean as of August migrants into the European conti- der crossers, from illegally cross- village of Oued Daouiyat, which ing Madrid to push for more finan- 22 and 14,680 had arrived in Spain nent after Greece. ing to Spain, Moroccan authorities borders Ceuta. cial aid to help Morocco tackle since the beginning of 2019, the In- Morocco has become a key play- said. Moroccan security forces are illegal immigration. ternational Organisation for Migra- er in curbing illegal immigration The Royal Morocco Navy has be- deployed across the 8km border The Spanish government ap- tion (IOM) said. to Europe, with border reinforce- come involved in search-and-res- fence as hallmarks of African mi- proved aid of $35.7 million to Rabat In 2018, approximately 7,000 il- ments making it virtually impos- cue maritime operations, forcing grants are visible in bushes. in addition to $28.8 million previ- legal migrants crossed the border sible to reach Spain. human smugglers to depart from Approximately 250 migrants ously granted to Morocco as part of from Morocco into the two Spanish “Morocco is helping us,” said as far as the western city of Casa- took security forces on both sides the cooperation between the two enclaves, the IOM said. Spanish Foreign Minister Josep blanca. by surprise August 30, storming countries to stop illegal migrants. The number of illegal migrants Borrell at a news conference in Ra- Ceuta’s border fence after a year Spanish government spokes- crossing into Spain doubled last bat last June. Saad Guerraoui is a contributor of lull. A government spokesman woman Isabel Celaa said the funds year with 65,000 arrivals compared Spain urged the European Union to The Arab Weekly on Maghreb in Ceuta said about 155 of the mi- were part of a package of $155 mil- to 2017, straining Madrid’s efforts to increase financial aid to Morocco, issues. 2 September 1, 2019 Cover Story Tensions between Israel and Iranian proxies rise, war unlikely for now

Manuel Langendorf In another attack attributed to Is- rael, a base of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine — Gen- London eral Command was struck in eastern Lebanon. In Iraq, Iran-aligned Popu- srael has significantly stepped lar Mobilisation Forces blamed Israel up its military campaign against for raids that killed at least one of its Iran and its affiliates in the Mid- fighters near the Syrian border. Isra- I dle East with a series of con- el did not take responsibility for the firmed and alleged military strikes, strikes in Lebanon and Iraq. increasing the risk of a major war in The series of confirmed and al- the region. leged Israeli strikes raised tensions On August 24, the Israel Defence in the region. Vowing retaliation, Forces struck a group they said was Nasrallah said this marked the first led by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary time Israel had struck inside Leba- Guard Corps (IRGC) that planned to non since the 2006 war. fly unmanned aerial vehicles carry- “Do not live, do not rest, do not be reassured and do not bet for a single ing explosives into northern Israel. Closer to the brink than ever. A picture of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah lies amid Iran denied that its operatives moment that Hezbollah will allow… damage inside the Lebanese Hezbollah media office in a southern suburb of Beirut, August 25. (AP) were hit in southern Syria but the aggression of this kind,” Nasrallah Syrian Observatory for Human said, addressing Israelis. In what Rights, a war monitor, said at least were considered the most direct cused Netanyahu, who also serves as ing of the Sunni Arab countries. in the Golan Heights, having moved five men died in the strike. Hezbol- threats in years, Nasrallah spoke of a defence minister, of trying to bolster In a tweet, Bahraini Foreign Min- more forces there. lah Secretary-General Hassan Nas- “new phase.” his security credentials ahead of the ister Khalid bin Ahmed al-Khalifa “So, at the moment, I think the rallah said two of them were Hezbol- Lebanese President Michel Aoun, election as tensions with Palestin- appeared to back Israel’s actions. command that is being issued is ‘no, lah members. a Hezbollah ally, likened the events ian factions in the Gaza Strip remain He said it was Iran, alongside its al- we need to exhibit patience,’” Smyth to a “declaration of war.” Lebanon’s high. lies such as Hezbollah, “who has de- said. Western-backed Prime Minister In reaction to Nasrallah’s threats, clared a war on us.” Salamey said Hezbollah’s most Opposition voices in Israel Saad Hariri warned that “any esca- Israel said it would restrict the move- “So one who strikes and destroys likely retaliation was a counter- accused Netanyahu of trying lation could develop into a regional ment of military vehicles along the the piles of their ammunition is not drone attack or the targeting of Is- to bolster his security cycle of violence.” northern border with Lebanon. The to blame. That is self-defence,” the raeli planes in Lebanese airspace credentials ahead of the The escalation comes weeks be- Lebanese Army said it fired at Israeli statement read. Khalifa, who has “without risking a full-fledged war.” election as tensions with fore Israel heads to the polls and drones in southern Lebanon on Au- met with Israeli officials and Israeli Like 2006, he said, domestic poli- Palestinian factions in the amid French mediation efforts be- gust 28. media publicly, previously said Is- tics in Lebanon was split whether Gaza Strip remain high. tween the United States and Iran The United Nations called on all rael had a right to defend itself. Hezbollah should be able to deter- regarding Tehran’s nuclear pro- parties “to exercise maximum re- Hezbollah has developed new mine the military response by itself gramme. straint both in action and rhetoric.” capabilities since the start of the or whether the government should The Lebanese armed group said Commenting on the Israeli strike Israel and Hezbollah fought a war in war in Syria, said Phillip Smyth, a make such a decision. two Israeli drones carrying explo- in Syria, Israeli Prime Minister Biny- 2006 in which approximately 1,200 researcher on Shia militant groups. Hezbollah Deputy Secretary- sives crashed in southern Beirut amin Netanyahu said: “Iran has no people in Lebanon, mostly civilians, “Right now,” he said, “I don’t really General Naim Qassem told the RT August 25, damaging Hezbollah’s immunity anywhere. Our forces op- and 160 people in Israel, mostly sol- see interest coming from Tehran, Arabic channel that the group would media centre. A report in the Times erate in every sector against Iranian diers, died. which controls Hezbollah, or neces- respond to Israel with a “surprise” newspaper in London suggested the aggression.” Imad Salamey, associate professor sarily from Hezbollah itself” to push strike while saying that war re- actual target was material used to Israel has publicly stated that it at the Lebanese American University, the current situation towards a ma- mained unlikely. “I rule out that the produce precision missiles. has carried out hundreds of strikes said a full-scale war “seems highly jor conflict. atmosphere is one of war, it is one An Israeli military spokesman said in Syria to counter Iran’s growing costly for both sides… I expect re- Iran, Smyth said, was very focused of a response to an attack,” Qassem Iran had, in recent months, stepped presence there but rarely acknowl- straint despite the rhetoric.” Netan- on “strategic patience” to achieve said. up efforts to provide Hezbollah with edges individual strikes, such as the yahu, he said, was using the attacks strategic and tactical gains. In the facilities to produce precision-guid- one August 24. to gain an advantage in the upcom- case of Hezbollah, he said the group Manuel Langendorf is a writer ed missiles. Opposition voices in Israel ac- ing elections and to obtain the back- was working to secure its presence focusing on the MENA region. Viewpoint Israeli military strikes in region putting US in quandary

here is a widespread Front for the Liberation of on deaf ears among pro-Iran Washington does not want the perception in the Palestine — General Command, factions in Iraq. The potential for region to spin out of control. Gregory Middle East that considered a pro-Iran group, while militia attacks on US troops in Iraq The Washington Post reported Aftandilian whenever Israel acts another operation struck Hezbol- has certainly risen. that, in reaction to the Iranian militarily it does so lah’s media office in Beirut. Meanwhile, Hezbollah Secre- downing of a US drone in the Strait either with US coordi- The Israeli newspaper Haaretz tary-General Hassan Nasrallah of Hormuz in June, Trump ordered Tnation or, at a minimum, with a reported that Israeli Prime threatened Israel with retaliation, a cyberattack on a critical database “green light” from Washington. Minister Binyamin Netanyahu though it is unclear whether he used by the IRGC to target oil The reality is much different. said: “We are operating in many would carry out this threat. tankers and shipping traffic in the Although there has long been areas against a state that wants to Outside of the issue of the Israeli Gulf. intelligence sharing between the annihilate us. Of course, I gave the strikes heating up the political Michael Schmitt, a professor at United States and Israel and US security forces a free hand and situation in Lebanon and Iraq, the the US Naval War College, said the military aid has bolstered Israel’s instructed them to do anything attacks have the potential to cyberattack, as opposed to a military capabilities, Israeli necessary to thwart Iran’s plans.” scuttle the slight easing of tensions military strike, was an “appropri- leaders make decisions based on The fact that these attacks have between Washington and Tehran ate measure.” He added: “Some- their own military and strategic escalated in recent weeks, only a that has been evident of late. times cyberspace allows you to calculations. short time before Israel’s elections, French President Emmanuel take operations that are not as This has been evident the last suggests Netanyahu is also playing Macron tried to mediate between escalatory as other options on the several weeks. Israel has report- to Israeli domestic politics. Iran and Washington and table.” edly attacked pro-Iranian military These military strikes, however, broached the idea of a meeting The Pentagon has been hoping sites and military activities in Iraq, have put the United States in a between the US and Iranian that the situation in the Gulf Syria and Lebanon, though it has difficult situation. Several Iraqi presidents. At the end of the G7 would de-escalate. US Defence only acknowledged a strike near parliamentarians, many tied to the summit in France, US President Secretary Mark Esper expressed Damascus, claiming it did so to militias, blamed both the United Donald Trump indicated he would some optimism August 28 that the prevent an imminent drone attack States and Israel for the drone be amenable to such a meeting United States and Iran may be on a on northern Israel by Iran’s attacks inside Iraq and called on while Iranian President Hassan better trajectory than they were in al-Quds force, the intelligence arm the Iraqi government to expel the Rohani, from Tehran, said the June. of the Islamic Revolutionary approximately 5,000 US troops in same. However, this could change if Guard Corps (IRGC). Iraq. The Iraqi parliamentary In more recent days, the chances Israel continues to strike pro-Iran Some of the reported Israeli faction Fateh called the attack on for such a meeting dimmed after targets and Iran feels compelled to drone attacks were aimed at the Hezbollah Brigades a “declara- Rohani stated that face-to-face respond, either directly or through The Pentagon denied pro-Iranian militia bases in Iraq. tion of war.” talks with Trump could only occur proxies. The United States could any US involvement Another targeted two vehicles Such rhetoric is highly problem- if US sanctions were lifted and US then be dragged into a conflict it near the Iraqi-Syrian border that atic because US troops play an national security adviser John had been hoping to avoid. in the Israeli drone belonged to the Hezbollah important role in training the Iraqi Bolton said a deal would have to attacks but such Brigades, a pro-Iran Iraqi militia Army and working with Iraqi elite be reached with Iran before Gregory Aftandilian is a lecturer denials fall on deaf separate from Hezbollah in units in going after Islamic State sanctions were lifted. in the Pardee School of Global Lebanon. cells in Iraq. The Pentagon denied Nonetheless, that Trump was Studies at Boston University and a ears among pro-Iran In Lebanon, the Israelis attacked any US involvement in the Israeli even open to the idea of a meeting former US State Department factions in Iraq. a base belonging to the Popular drone attacks but such denials fall with Rohani suggests that Middle East analyst. September 1, 2019 3 Israel Strikes in the Region Israeli drone attacks threaten to disrupt border talks with Lebanon

Sami Moubayed the negotiations, there is very little Hariri can do to stop him. The maritime border crisis Beirut erupted nearly two years ago af- ter Lebanon decided to explore an rone attacks by Israel on offshore block rich in oil and gas. Lebanese territory in late Three international firms were August are threatening to contracted to do the job: France’s D disrupt low-key maritime Total, Eni SpA of Italy and Russia’s border negotiations between Tel Novatek. Aviv and Beirut, which have been Israel objected, however, saying technically at a state of war since that a triangular area of 860 sq.km 1948. in Block 9 is a contested zone be- One drone exploded in flight and tween the two countries. The UN the other was downed over a south- Convention on the Law of the Sea ern suburb of Beirut, 24 hours after states that all countries are enti- the Israeli military carried out an tled to a 200-nautical-mile (370km) attack in eastern Lebanon, report- Economic Exclusion Zone (EEZ) off edly against a Hezbollah-affiliated their coast. Palestinian group. A third attack Within it, they are free to exploit took place the night of August 24 in natural resources, whether it’s Syrian territory, killing two Hezbol- fish or oil, without the approval of lah personnel. A fourth violation of neighbours or the United Nations. Lebanese airspace occurred August Lebanon claims that, while it has 28 when a drone flying over a Leba- signed and respected the Law of nese Army position was shot at. the Sea Convention, Israel is not a Lebanese President Michel Aoun member of it and, therefore, is not declared that the attacks amounted entitled to any EEZ although it has to a “declaration of war” while Hez- carved out one of its own, as a de bollah Secretary-General Hassan facto reality. Nasrallah threatened to strike back Estimates say Lebanon’s EEZ, as Bad blood. Lebanese soldiers patrol next to a Hezbollah flag in the southern village of Aitaroun, on (AP) militarily. its borders stand according to Bei- the border with Israel, August 27. The high tension comes in sharp rut, may contain up to 25 trillion cu- contrast to positive remarks made bic feet of natural gas. It would be a sharp need for money in Lebanese binding between the two countries, Hezbollah’s support of these by Lebanese Prime Minister Saad gold mine for the nearly bankrupt- coffers. which would also serve as a buffer talks was a turning point in its his- Hariri in mid-August during a trip ed Lebanese economy, transform- Even Hezbollah is short on cash, zone. tory, no doubt. Negotiations with to Washington where he said mari- ing the country from an energy suffering from the renewal of US That is what’s currently on the ta- Israel mean de facto recognition time talks were expected to yield consumer to a producer, explaining sanctions on Iran. ble and the Lebanese are trying to of Israel — something that Hezbol- positive results. why all top leaders — Aoun, Prime That explains why, when re- expand their share of the maritime lah had previously refused to give. Minister Saad Hariri and Berri — are ceiving US Secretary of State Mike zone, up to 650 sq.km, leaving Is- Its founding charter accepts noth- so eager for the work to start. Pompeo last March in Beirut, all rael with approximately 210 sq.km. ing less than the destruction of the The maritime border crisis So is Nasrallah, clearly from the Lebanese parties, Hezbollah in- What has been agreed upon is to state of Israel and full liberation of erupted nearly two years fact that he has not objected to cluded, agreed to resolve the dis- allow international gas companies historical Palestine. ago after Lebanon decided them and nor has any of his party pute with Israel diplomatically. to conduct seismic surveys in the Previous talks on prisoner swaps to explore an offshore block members, whether in the parlia- Hezbollah had previously voiced disputed waters, as a confidence- had been done through third par- rich in oil and gas. ment or in the Hariri cabinet. objection to 13 points along the building measure between Tel Aviv ties, such as Germany, and never Former Israeli Defence Minister ground demarcation line between and Beirut. Those results will de- since Hezbollah entered political The negotiations that started this Avigdor Lieberman had previously the two countries, known as the termine who will be doing the sec- life had the Lebanese state engaged summer under the auspices of the threatened a “full-strength” inva- Blue Line, but made it clear that it ond bidding January 31. Russia’s in direct talks with the Israelis. The United States have been implicitly sion of Lebanon should unilateral would only be discussing maritime Lukoil has shown interest and so fact that it is still a member of the approved by Hezbollah, a partner drilling start in Block 9. borders today. has the United Kingdom’s BP and government that is handling these in the Hariri cabinet that controls At first, Hezbollah and Amal, the The United States suggested Malaysia’s Petronas. No US com- talks adds to their importance — most of the Lebanese state, either two powerful Shia movements, reviving a 2012 demarcation line pany has shown interest to date, and credibility. It means that if a through affiliates or proxies. Aoun is strongly objected to Israel’s claim, proposal, put forth by US diplo- despite the US role in the media- deal is reached, Hezbollah has the its ally and so is parliament Speaker saying they had waited for ten years mat Fredric Hof, which would give tion process. power to uphold it — or bring it Nabih Berri, while top posts, such to start the drilling and would not Israel one-third of the disputed Whether the second bidding down completely. as the portfolios of defence, for- stop now, no matter what the Israe- triangular maritime zone, leaving takes place or not depends on how eign affairs, energy and finance, are lis were saying. That position grad- Lebanon with 550 sq.km of the dis- Hezbollah reacts in the months Sami Moubayed is a Syrian held by its friends in government. ually and pragmatically softened, puted area. Hof suggested drawing ahead and whether Nasrallah puts historian and author of “Under the If Nasrallah retaliates by calling off thanks to mediation by Aoun and a a provisional line that was legally his words into action. Black Flag” (IB Tauris, 2015). Viewpoint Hezbollah and Israel’s drone wars

eirut was rocked by a al-Quds Force and two Hezbollah examine the drones, which Hezbollah’s subservience to loud explosion in the drone experts. remain with Hezbollah and its Iran’s expansionist project is no early hours of August Many expected Nasrallah intelligence apparatus. less damaging to Lebanon’s 25 that brought back would not stop short of declaring All of this has caused scepti- political and economic well- Makram Rabah memories of the 2006 war but his speech consisted cism about the source of the being, let alone to the country’s war between Israel merely of fighting words that drones. It is known that Iran and sovereignty. Band Lebanon. The mysterious promised vague retaliation. It is Hezbollah have arduously been Hezbollah does not miss any blast was soon reported on social clear, given Nasrallah’s reflec- developing this technology and opportunity to spin the news to media to have been caused by an tions, that he does not want to go inhabitants of the southern part resurrect its shattered image as a unidentified drone that crashed to war. For his Iranian patrons, of Mount Lebanon recently resistance group aimed at into a heavily populated area of that would be counterproductive complained of frequent drone protecting Lebanon, destroying Beirut’s southern suburbs that is as they try to use the French to activity over their villages. They Israel and liberating Palestine but a stronghold of Iran-backed coax US President Donald Trump suspect the aircraft to be from the drone war or any other future Hezbollah. into agreeing to negotiations Hezbollah. confrontation will merely serve It was later said that two Israeli aimed at easing economic Apart from the military and as distractions aimed at empow- unmanned aerial vehicles were sanctions. security questions, the show- ering Iran at the expense of the involved in the incident, one of The new drone war between down between Israel and Hezbol- countries it occupies — Lebanon which a local man claims to have Iran and Israel does have serious lah raised dire concerns about being one of them. brought down by throwing implications, giving a unique Lebanon’s sovereignty. In his Anyone hoping to come up with stones. This seemingly unbeliev- insight into the scope of the speech, Nasrallah reminded a rational solution to Hezbollah’s able story was given credence by simmering conflict and the extent Lebanon that it is Iran, not the unheeded ambition is doomed to Hezbollah Secretary-General to which both sides are willing to Lebanese parliament, that fail. Remember, logic does not Hassan Nasrallah, who claimed go to deter and injure the other. ultimately decides whether figure into the mind of a person Israel targeted Hezbollah’s media Interestingly, the details Lebanon goes to war. who believes — and firmly and communications building but surrounding the attack in Sadly, the Lebanese govern- declares — that a drone can be did not inflict serious damage. Hezbollah’s stronghold remain ment has fully adopted Hezbol- brought down with stones or that Sadly, the Lebanese Nasrallah’s speech was fol- clouded in mystery. The Leba- lah’s narrative on the drone affair, their victories against local and government has fully lowed closely by the Lebanese nese state has made little pro- even trying to outbid Iran on the foreign enemies are divinely adopted Hezbollah’s public, who were eager to hear gress in the investigation, failing subject by claiming the attack inspired. what Hezbollah’s reaction would to take the lead in the matter or would justify Lebanon declaring narrative on the drone be to the alleged drone attack and disclose evidence proving the war on Israel. Makram Rabah is a lecturer at affair, even trying to to the Israeli air raid on the Syrian drones were Israeli. Embarrass- Israel clearly has no intention the American University of Beirut town of Aqraba, which killed a ingly, Lebanese authorities have of respecting Lebanon’s airspace and author of “A Campus at War: outbid Iran on the member of Iran’s Islamic Revolu- not been allowed to assume and will continue with its Student Politics at the American subject. tionary Guard Corps’ elite custody of the crime scene or violations undeterred but University of Beirut, 1967-1975.” 4 September 1, 2019 News & Analysis US-Iran Showdown

Viewpoint The high stakes in US-Iran manoeuvres also reveals that the reluctance on both sides to resolve the Mohamad crisis between Washington and Kawas Tehran allows Israel to expand its military options to destroy what Iran has been building for ll that upbeat decades. commotion during The issue is not the destruc- the G7 summit in tion of Iranian military interests France about Iran in the region but that the Israeli does not really military campaign might cause matter. What is a shift in positions, especially in worthA monitoring, though, is Baghdad, towards distancing the language of fire that the Iraq from Tehran. This includes entire international community daring to openly call for has used through Israeli tools to “defending Iraq’s interests” by strike Iran’s interests in Iraq, keeping a clear distance from Syria and Lebanon. Tehran’s agenda and resenting US Vice-President Mike Pence its interference and influence spoke with Israeli Prime within Iraqi territory, for Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, example. expressing the United States’ In contrast, Trump does not With a pinch of salt. Iranian President Hassan Rohani (2 L) attends a ceremony in Tehran, August 27. full support for Israel’s right to seem to be in a rush. That he (AFP) defend its security. So did US agrees to a meeting with Rohani Secretary of State Mike or postpones the matter until Pompeo, who conveyed a “the right conditions” are ripe is warning to Lebanese Prime a luxury Tehran does not have. Minister Saad Hariri that Israel The US president is fighting a US and Iran say willing might go very far in its war battle to renew his term at the against Lebanon if the escala- White House next year. The tion is not stopped. Iranian question is not central While the American moves to his election campaign. The represent predictable behav- bulk of his electoral bloc is not to talk but ulterior iour in support of Israel, the concerned with the crisis with silence of major world capitals, Iran and may not know where it especially those whose leaders is on the world map. Any met in France, about the wave developments in the crisis with of Israeli firepower that tar- Iran will not affect the outcome motives keep big divide geted Iranian military positions of the presidential elections. or ones allied to Tehran from Iraq to the Mediterranean, demonstrates the complicity of Iran miscalculated its Thomas Seibert wrong. The devil is in the details.” the sanctions. the international system, chances of success Trump has overseen a “maxi- Rafati said the immediate goal including China and Russia, to mum pressure” campaign against could be a return to the situa- tame the Iranian momentum when it turned Iraq, Istanbul Tehran with crippling economic tion before May this year, when and impose on it unprec- Syria and Lebanon sanctions to try to force the Ira- Trump ended all exceptions for edented controls. he United States and Iran nians to accept stricter rules on countries to buy Iranian oil. That With the blessings of the into one integrated may have taken a step their nuclear programme and triggered a sharp rise in tensions international community, Israel workshop that back from the brink of war missile plans. Iran responded that put the United States and is engaged in shaking the threatened Israel’s T but de-escalation is by no with a mix of measures, rang- Iran close to a military confronta- various corners and founda- security. way certain, analysts said. ing from interfering with tanker tion. Trump said in June that he tions of the strategic corridor Speaking August 26 at the end traffic in the Gulf to violating the stopped a US strike on Iran just that Iran has sought to build of a G7 summit in France, which nuclear deal and warning of more minutes before it was scheduled from Tehran to Beirut. Ironically, the Iranian ques- included a surprise visit by Irani- violations that would effectively to be carried out. Iranian Foreign Minister tion is not a central campaign an Foreign Minister Mohammad end the landmark accord. “Economic reprieve” for Iran Mohammad Javad Zarif’s issue for all candidates. Israel’s Javad Zarif, US President Donald The escalation alarmed Euro- and a return by Iran to the rules enthusiasm for French efforts sudden military campaign Trump said he saw a “very good pean powers that want to keep of the nuclear deal would likely for a diplomatic breakthrough might be an attempt to rein in chance” for a personal meeting the nuclear agreement alive. have to be part of any package to at the G7 summit suggests Iran the flexibility that some capitals with Iranian President Hassan Ro- They argue that keeping Iran en- defuse the situation, Rafati said. has understood the recent fire have been showing towards hani in the coming weeks. Rohani gaged is the best way to prevent Tehran has exceeded the limits messages and realised that any Tehran, while at the same time also indicated his willingness to Tehran from building a nuclear on the stockpile of enriched ura- military response would bring it it is being conducted in accord- meet Trump. weapon and to get results on Teh- nium it was allowed to have un- broader and fiercer fire that ance with the international Both sides, however, set out ran’s missile programme, which is der the agreement and has driven would not be contested by any balance of power in relation to conditions that appeared to be seen as a threat to other countries uranium enrichment to a degree of its alleged world allies. the Iranian file. non-starters for their potential in the region, or Iran’s aggressive above that laid down in the trea- That Zarif was very active in Iran’s famous corridor interlocutors. The Trump admin- policies in regional conflicts. ty. Iran said it may soon breach France, supported in his efforts towards the Mediterranean has istration demanded indefinite other rules of the accord, a step by Iranian President Hassan become a strategic threat to restrictions on Iran’s nuclear pro- that could lead to the collapse of Rohani, despite Zarif’s critics in Israel’s security. This was not gramme, a ban on Iranian ballis- Naysan Rafati, the deal. Tehran and to the point of the case when the Arabs had Iran analyst at the tic missiles and an end of Iranian International Crisis Diplomatic efforts to prevent agreeing to some meeting with raised the issue of the dangers support for groups around the Group a further rise in tensions con- US President Donald Trump, of the projected corridor when region such as Lebanon’s Hezbol- tinued after the G7 summit. Iran means that the Iranian Supreme Jordanian King Abdullah II in lah militants and Yemen’s Houthi said it was sending a delegation Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei 2004 called attention to Iran’s rebels. “We may be approaching an to France for more talks and Zarif has accepted to swallow the “Shia crescent” project or when Iran is calling for US sanctions off-ramp in tensions between is scheduled to travel to Moscow poison just as his predecessor, former US President Barack to be lifted as a precondition for Iran and the US but it would September 2. Ruhollah Khomeini, did to stop Obama rushed to impose his talks. Tehran also wants Trump be premature to talk about a Both Trump and Rohani had the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. nuclear deal with Iran on the to return to the 2015 international breakthrough.” to tread carefully, Rafati said. When one examines the world in 2015. nuclear agreement that the Unit- “There is a lot of concern among effects of the time factor on the Obviously, the one that ed States abandoned last year. hardliners in Iran” about trusting rival contenders in this affair, it brought Iran’s dream of the Still, the stated readiness by As the leader of a European any possible agreement with the becomes obvious that Iran is famous corridor crashing is Iran Trump and Rohani to iron out effort to defuse the situation, United States, he said. Rohani’s suffering under devastating itself, which miscalculated its their differences through dia- French President Emmanuel Ma- domestic critics argue that the economic sanctions whose chances of success when it logue, coming after months of cron used his role as the G7 host 2015 nuclear deal never delivered effects Tehran is striving hard turned Iraq, Syria and Lebanon belligerent rhetoric and hostile to pressure Trump. Macron in- the economic benefits promised to hide. Iran also seems to be into one integrated workshop military action with the two sides vited Zarif for talks on the side- by his government. “They are say- losing the battle of the Strait of that threatened Israel’s security. bringing down each other’s un- lines of the G7 summit to hammer ing: once bitten, twice shy,” Rafati Hormuz and even fell back to an Tehran wanted to maximise its manned aerial vehicles in the home the message that dialogue said about hardliners in Tehran. amateurish level by expressing share in the international scene Gulf, offered at least a theoretical with Iran is crucial. At the same time, supporters of its concern about the threats to by increasing its potential chance to de-escalate the situa- Trump not only signalled his the “maximum pressure” strat- the security of international danger to Israel but it has lost its tion in top-level talks. willingness to meet with Rohani. egy in Washington may be op- shipping in the Gulf waters and bet. Rohani and Trump are to be in His administration is preparing posed to any move that could be volunteering to be part of a If Tehran fails to come up New York for the UN General As- direct talks with the Iran-backed considered giving Iran a reprieve, regional system to protect the with a strategic response to the sembly at the end of September, Houthi rebels in Yemen, the Wall Rafati added. security of the region. change in Israel’s strategy, it which could provide a stage for Street Journal reported. The United States the week Tehran was eyeing with great will lose its “corridor” forever talks. Trump also indicated a way to of August 26 imposed sanctions concern the advance of interna- since it will be dropped from “We may be approaching an lessen the economic burden that against two networks it says tional fleets, led by the United the agenda of any possible off-ramp in tensions between his sanctions placed on Iran. He helped boost Iran’s nuclear pro- States of course, towards the negotiations. Perhaps Trump’s Iran and the US but it would be ruled out lifting sanctions against gramme and evade sanctions to region, and realising that the “right conditions” means that premature to talk about a break- Tehran but said one idea would benefit Tehran’s government and trend was growing every day Iran needs to lose some other through,” said Naysan Rafati, Iran be to open a new credit line for military. while projects for alternative negotiating cards. analyst at the International Cri- Iran. The model he mentioned international alliances fall by sis Group. “Everything has to go would mean countries could, in Thomas Seibert is an Arab the wayside. Mohamad Kawas is a Lebanese right but there is a lot that can go effect, pre-buy Iranian oil despite Weekly correspondent. Examining the time factor writer. September 1, 2019 5 News & Analysis US-Iran Showdown Viewpoint Preconditions hinder Trump-Rohani summit

looking for no nuclear weap- ons, no ballistic missiles and a longer period of time [for Iran’s Ali Alfoneh obligations under a future nuclear agreement].” Ever the real estate devel- ell done. oper, Trump said he had friends Bien in real estate, who “did very joue,” well [in Iran]. They made a lot British of money” but the most curious “ Prime part of Trump’s statement was Minister a few details about extending a Boris WJohnson said to French line of credit to Iran. The latter President Emmanuel Macron at indicates talks between Macron the G7 summit in Biarritz, and Trump resulted in agree- France, and added: “You did ment on specific measures to very well last night. My God, accommodate Tehran. that was a difficult one. You did The initial reaction from brilliant!” Tehran was positive, as Rohani Johnson’s praise was a declared his willingness to reaction, not so much to the meet “anyone if it secures the fairly harmonious summit but prosperity of our country.” The the surprise appearance of hard-line Iranian media did not Iranian Foreign Minister exactly welcome Rohani’s Mohammad Javad Zarif in statements, however. Biarritz. Macron’s risky gamble Kayhan, unofficial mouth- could have enraged US Presi- piece of Supreme Leader Ali dent Donald Trump. Instead, Khamenei, editorialised: “Mr Trump said it was realistic to Rohani, the country prospers envisage a meeting between through hard work and not by him and Iranian President meeting this or that person!” In Hassan Rohani in the coming the same vein, Javan, close to weeks. the Islamic Revolutionary What are the prospects for Guard Corps (IRGC), editorial- Risky gambles. An Iranian cleric walks past a mural painting of the national flag, August 27. (AFP) such a summit between the ised: “Iran will not prosper by presidents of the United States photo diplomacy!” Sobh-e-No and Iran? asked: “Who pays the price of saying: “We remember those of a Trump-Rohani summit. Trump administration may not Can Rohani duplicate Kim this excessive optimism?” who imposed sanctions on the Rohani’s and Zarif’s contra- be very different from those in Jong-un’s summit diplomacy Under pressure from Khame- people and waged economic dictory statements clearly Tehran. While Trump may be with Trump? nei, the IRGC and its hard-line terrorism against the people. demonstrate tensions among interested in making history by To judge by tensions in media, in less than 24 hours, They must repent before there the ruling elites of Iran. While being the first American leader Tehran and Washington, those Rohani corrected course, is a change in our behaviour.” Rohani is eager to take a page since President Jimmy Carter to prospects are not particularly Rohani continued: “In our out of the Kim Jong-un diplo- meet with an Iranian leader, his bright. relations with the United macy book and at least try to closest advisers remained Several details from Macron’s States, we will not see a get sanctions relief from conspicuously silent. and Trump’s statements point While Rohani is eager positive change unless America Trump, Khamenei fears the Once Trump is back in to a remarkable shift in Trump’s ceases its sanctions and unpredictable American Washington, US national approach to Iran. In their joint to take a page out of abandons its mistakes.” president will change his security adviser John Bolton news conference, Macron the Kim Jong-un Dismissing the very idea of opinion after such a summit and US Secretary of State Mike disclosed he and Trump meeting with the American and once again embarrass the Pompeo will do their utmost to discussed Iran “in the last few diplomacy book, president, Rohani said: “We are regime in Tehran. make him forget the lovey- weeks and particularly the last Khamenei fears the not seeking a photo opportu- The IRGC may not in princi- dovey atmosphere in Biarritz. couple of days.” unpredictable nity. No one can take photos ple be against reaching out to However, Trump being Trump, Macron further disclosed that with Hassan Rohani… Unless Washington but is also not anything can happen, even a the French and Iranian foreign American president the Americans, one day, particularly eager to grant a summit with Rohani. ministers had agreed to a “road will change his abandon all their unjust diplomatic victory to Rohani, map” of sorts. Trump assured: sanctions and respect the rights whom it perceives as a domes- Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at “We’re not looking for leader- opinion after such a of the Iranian nation.” tic political rival. the Arab Gulf States Institute in ship change [in Iran]… We’re summit. Zarif, too, dismissed the idea Tensions on Iran policy in the Washington. Viewpoint Britain needs to stop flip-flopping on Iran

espite a request from government,” a charge that would it wanted to keep the dead-in-the- Satan,” as compared to the United the US government be hilariously laughable were it water Joint Comprehensive Plan States’ status as the “Great Satan.” Tallha for the Iranian oil not for the grave miscarriage of of Action, better known as the That the United Kingdom should Abdulrazaq tanker Grace I not to justice that would be inflicted on Iran nuclear deal, alive. continue to tolerate threats to its be released from this woman and, by extension, her What this means is that, most interests, its citizens, its ships and Britain-controlled family. important, Zaghari-Ratcliffe will, its prestige all for the sake of keep- DGibraltar, the tanker was cut loose As foreign secretary, Boris unfortunately, continue to ing the European Union happy and set sail for Greece, raising Johnson in 2017 made matters languish in an IRGC-run dungeon even with Brexit on the horizon is questions about Britain’s commit- worse for Zaghari-Ratcliffe by and that Johnson has failed her silly. ment to its American ally. publicly stating that she was in twice, first as foreign secretary It is time for Britain to lockstep While the episode of the seizure Iran “teaching journalism.” She and second as the most powerful with the United States and of the Iranian vessel has been actually was in the country man in the United Kingdom. It coordinate its Iran policy accord- embarrassing for the mullahs of visiting her family for Nowruz, also means he has irked his closest ingly. Tehran, the United Kingdom’s the Persian new year. Johnson’s ally, the administration of US This much was made abun- seeming flip-flopping around the shambolic intervention led to her President Donald Trump, and dantly clear at the G7 summit Iranian menace is alarming, being dragged before another seemingly so that he could when French President Emma- particularly as British-Iranian revolutionary court, though she continue to toe the line set out by nuel Macron invited Iranian citizens languish in Iranian escaped further punishment. the European Union. It is seeking Foreign Minister Mohammad dungeons and no effort was made Now, as prime minister, to keep the nuclear deal with Iran Javad Zarif to attend on the by Whitehall to use the capture of Johnson had some serious on life support even after it is sidelines of the meeting, likely in Grace I, since renamed the Adrian leverage over Iran in the form of obviously not fit for purpose. an attempt to embarrass Trump. Darya I, as leverage to secure their its oil tanker being seized by Royal Britain needs to make up its Nevertheless, and despite talks That the United release. Marines, who had reason to mind. It cannot seek freedom of of new discussions on the Iran Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a believe its cargo was about to be navigation for all commercial nuclear deal coming from the Kingdom should British-Iranian charity worker, illegally shipped to the regime of vessels in the Arabian Gulf that Americans that were later continue to tolerate was arrested alongside her Syrian President Bashar Assad. Iran threatens every day and want rebuffed by Iranian President threats to its interests, 22-month-old daughter by Iran’s Johnson also had the opportu- to keep the nuclear deal alive Hassan Rohani, Johnson main- Islamic Revolutionary Guard nity to use the seizure of the while Iran breaches its terms and tained his country’s position that its citizens, its ships Corps (IRGC) in April 2016. tanker to coordinate with the enriches uranium beyond levels the Iran nuclear deal was the best and its prestige all for Months later, she was sentenced White House to enhance and stipulated by the agreement. option for global powers to curtail in a sham trial to five years in increase pressure on Iran to Downing Street’s flip-flopping on Iranian expansionism while the sake of keeping Iran’s prisons, which are notori- ensure that it behaved according the Iranian issue is a drain on keeping Tehran economically the European Union ous for all manner of human rights to international norms and Britain’s prestige and shows that engaged. happy even with abuses, torture and psychological standards. Unfortunately, the United Kingdom can be torment. Johnson failed to capitalise on bullied. Tallha Abdulrazaq is a researcher at Brexit on the horizon She was found guilty of this leverage or even to emphasise Let us not forget that Iran the University of Exeter’s Strategy is silly. “plotting to topple the Iranian the fact that Iran needed Britain if describes Britain as the “Little and Security Institute in England. 6 September 1, 2019 Opinion

Editorial US-Iran talks

he US-Iranian negotiation dance has, for all practical purposes, just begun. However, considering the wavering by US and Iranian leaders and the mixed signals they sent at the G7 summit in France, it looks as if that dance is going to be, at best, a stutter- Ting and unpredictable process. Initially, expectations of a breakthrough looked real when US President Donald Trump told the world that it would be realistic to see a meeting between him and Iranian President Hassan Rohani “in the next few weeks.” Rohani expressed his readiness to meet. “If I know that in meeting with somebody the problem of my country would be solved, I wouldn’t hesitate because the central issue is the national interests of the country,” he said. Whatever the reasons, be they resistance by Iran’s conservatives to any rapprochement with the “Great Satan” or Tehran’s temptation to extract maximum concessions from the United States, the early optimism quickly evaporated. Iran’s official and unofficial positions gave more an impression of serious overreach than of a starting bid. Senior Iranian officials told Reuters: “We want to export 700,000 [barrels per day] of oil and get paid in cash… and that is just for a start.” A second official said: “Iran’s ballistic missile programme cannot and will not be negotiated” © Yaser Ahmed for The Arab Weekly and Tehran wanted to hold on to its “right to enrich uranium.” Rohani summed it up with a blanket precondi- tion. He was ready for talks, he said, “but first the Lebanon is hostage to US should act by lifting all illegal, unjust and unfair sanctions imposed on Iran.” By way of collateral to vouch for the country’s Stockholm syndrome commitment not to build a nuclear bomb, Rohani just offered a 2003 fatwa issued by Iranian Khairallah Khairallah Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. By August 28, the Trump administration was The Lebanese should be recognising there is no future for back in business continuing its “maximum the country if it yields to those who have kidnapped it. pressure” approach towards Iran, announcing the blacklisting of business groups accused of being “suppliers of Tehran’s missile programme and he internal Force in Lebanon. against the honest Lebanese. facilitators of its alleged proliferation activities.” Lebanese reac- Lebanon could have They are weapons that serve Before they are on track, any US-Iranian tions to the crash defended its interests on the to isolate Lebanon from its negotiations would have to overcome Tehran’s of two Israeli basis of Resolution 1701. It is in Arab environment and serve apparent belief that it can ensure the lifting of US drones in a Lebanon’s interest to strictly to destroy every institution of sanctions without altering the course of its southern suburb adhere to the resolution and the Lebanese state. They are in belligerent policies. of Beirut, with work to develop it. This is at the country to ruin everything Any progress towards real de-escalation would Tone exploding next to a least what was understood from related to the Lebanese economy, have to overcome Iran’s hubris and unwillingness Hezbollah office building, the words of Lebanese Prime which was flourishing not long to end its threats to peace and security in the revealed that most Lebanese Minister Saad Hariri during his ago. region. have difficulty accepting logic recent visit to the United States The Lebanese are being or coping with reality. in which he heard about the distracted by hollow slogans There was a good deal of dangers threatening Lebanon while their country’s economy Unwelcoming sympathy for Hezbollah, a and its economy. is in a deplorable state, with group that is a mere brigade in During that visit, Hariri garbage piling up in the streets, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary called for changing Resolution no electricity, no running water Syrian refugees Guard Corps and that has — 1701 from a resolution ceasing and no decent roads in a nation once again — proven it has “hostilities” to one establishing whose infrastructure, a few years here are worrisome signs that the taken the place of the Lebanese a “ceasefire” between Lebanon ago, was among the best in the willingness to accommodate refugees state. and Israel. region. in Middle East host countries is This happened at a time Lebanese officials have a It has been 40 years that Iran increasingly wearing thin. when it is necessary to have the duty to condemn any Israeli has repeatedly said it wants to In Lebanon, chauvinistic political courage to ask a very simple violation of Lebanese airspace. eradicate this “cancerous cell” discourse has ratcheted up the slowly mounting hostility towards Syrian question to the party and Doing so, however, does not called Israel. The only tangible Trefugees. Segments of the 6 million Lebanese those who use it for political preclude taking an explicit result is Israel’s perpetuating population see the 1.5 million Syrian refugees as cover, a question that has to do position regarding Hezbollah, its occupation of the part of with what the party is doing a party exclusively bent on the West Bank it wanted, offering unfair competition to them in terms of Hezbollah cannot employment and government services. on Lebanese soil and outside defending Iran’s interest. including Jerusalem. To encourage Syrian refugees to leave the Lebanese borders: Where is It is not in the interest deter Israel. All it can As for Lebanon, it is country and to dissuade them in any case from Lebanon’s interest in breaching of Lebanon to become do is bring more in a state of constant permanently settling in Lebanon, the government UN Security Council Resolution hostage to Iran, destruction on decline and, unlike in imposed restrictions on refugees in terms of 1701? especially in the context Lebanon with its the past, not one Arab employment and housing. Many homes built with Lebanon has no interest of a confrontation hollow slogans that is asking about its fate. concrete were razed in Arsal by the army or by the in this in any way. Hezbollah between the Trump serve only Iran and The biggest ambition owners themselves. Fines were imposed on agreed to every word in that administration and of the Lebanese is to businesses employing Syrian refugees without a its expansionist resolution, which “had ceased Tehran, which wants to project. emigrate, especially due licence. hostilities” in the summer show every day that it is a among the educated youth Besides, the pressure put on Syrian refugees of 2006 after a long war that regional power that controls who are no longer able to find have added to the Palestinian refugees’ wariness Hezbollah began in the context four Arab capitals: Baghdad, jobs in their homeland in part about their situation in Lebanon and revived old of its campaign against Lebanon Damascus, Beirut and Sana’a. because of the presence of the tensions. and the Lebanese to cover up for It would be useful for weapons of Hezbollah. This has There have also been signs of an increasingly the assassination of Rafik Hariri. Lebanese officials to take played a big role in the economy’s precarious situation for Syrian refugees in Egypt, The summer of 2006 remains frank and bold positions. They collapse, as has the absence of with familiar complaints that the more than the 550,000 refugees are spiking the cost of housing a historic turning point for should free themselves of the Arab visitors, especially from the and competing for jobs. Syrian businesses were Lebanon because it ended multiple complexes that have Gulf countries, because of the raided by authorities. with the destruction by Israel long paralysed them, the first rapidly deteriorating conditions In Turkey, large sectors of the political class and of a significant portion of and foremost of which is the at all levels. the public at large are complaining that the more the Lebanese infrastructure “resistance” complex that Will the Lebanese reconcile than 3.6 million Syrian refugees are exerting and Hezbollah’s victory over led to the Cairo Agreement in themselves with logic or will intolerable pressures on the country’s economy Lebanon and the Lebanese. 1969 and gave legitimacy to they remain prisoners of slogans? and politics. It became quite clear after the Palestinian weapons on My biggest fear is that they have The ruling Justice and Development Party and that war that Hezbollah had Lebanese soil, weapons that all, including the country’s top the opposition seem to agree on that point. Public seized control of the decision quickly became part of the officials, become victims of opinion polls in Turkey indicate most respondents of peace or war in Lebanon internal Lebanese conflicts. the Stockholm syndrome. The stated they favour “repatriation of refugees.” and progressed to the point Hezbollah’s weapons are no Lebanese should be recognising The issue has become a driver of Turkish policy it became the one party better than the Palestinians’ there is no future for the country at home and abroad. Turkish President Recep that chooses the Lebanese weapons. In fact, they are if it yields to those who have Tayyip Erdogan has seized on the problem to president. more dangerous since they kidnapped it. justify the creation by his military forces of a zone No one disagrees that Israel are brandished by Lebanese No, Hezbollah cannot deter under Turkish control in north-western Syria is in breach of Resolution 1701 citizens. It is these sectarian Israel. All it can do is bring more where the refugees would be repatriated. but whoever reads the text of militia weapons that pose the destruction on Lebanon with its Erdogan might have other concerns. Turkish the resolution discovers that greatest danger to Lebanon. hollow slogans that serve only scholar Selim Sazak stated in Foreign Policy: “Erdogan sees the writing on the wall: Turkey’s Hezbollah has taken what it Hezbollah’s weapons Iran and its expansionist project, anti-refugee wave is now a movement waiting for a wanted from the resolution and are there to protect the a project bent on destruction. leader and he needs to act before it finds its Matteo has acted in its own interests, “untouchables” who Salvini.” even in southern Lebanon area assassinated Rafik Hariri Khairallah Khairallah is a of operation of the UN Interim and committed other crimes Lebanese writer. September 1, 2019 7 Opinion

US premises approach towards Palestinians Published by Al Arab on denial of Israeli occupation Publishing House Kamel Hawwash Publisher Israel and the United States are trying to disappear Palestine and its people but the and Group Executive Editor Palestinians will not agree to losing their collective identity. Haitham El-Zobaidi, PhD

he so-called Deal the area. Official maps show different colour than Israeli are clearly moving towards a Editor-in-Chief of the Century, or the occupied West Bank as areas. political solution predicated Oussama Romdhani what US Special “Judea and Samaria,” while US Ambassador to Israel on Israeli control of the whole Representative East Jerusalem is incorpo- David Friedman, a fervent land between the Mediterra- for International rated into Greater Jerusalem supporter of the illegal nean and the Jordan River. Managing Editor Negotiations instead of the occupied West settlement enterprise, stated The Americans and the Iman Zayat TJason Greenblatt referred to Bank. Increasingly, Israel is in June that Israel had a right Israelis will feel they can on Twitter as the “peace denying there is an occupa- to annex parts of the West impose a solution, which Deputy Managing Editor vision,” will not be released tion, preferring to use Bank. The map of Israel deletes both the Palestinian and Online Editor until after the second Israeli “disputed” territories. could change again if it Territories and the Palestin- Mamoon Alabbasi elections of the year Septem- The Israeli discourse has annexes parts of the West ians as an issue. ber 17. been adopted in full by the Bank and Trump recognises Israel will continue to work Elections earlier this year Trump administration. The that action. to remove Palestinians from Senior Editor failed to bring a coalition US State Department The US government is not their homeland. Israel John Hendel government into being. removed the word “occupa- committed to a two-state appears to be looking for Recent polls indicate the two tion” from its official solution to the conflict. countries that will take main parties — Likud and the documents. This began with Speaking at the Washington Palestinians from Gaza on a Chief Copy Editor Blue and White alliance — are the designation of the Institute for Near East Policy permanent basis. This has neck and neck at 30 seats “Occupied Palestinian last May, Trump’s special been referred to as “willing Richard Pretorius each in the 120-seat Knes- Territories” as “West Bank,” adviser Jared Kushner relocation” of Palestin- Copy Editors set. in its annual report on human said: “If you say If there is no ians. This would make it rights across the world. ‘two-state,’ it means occupation, Jerusalem Israel and the United Stephen Quillen difficult for either party to Journalist Aaron Magid one thing to the belongs to Israel, the States are trying to Kyle Arensdorf form a governing coalition. tweeted that he noticed that Israelis, it means Palestinian refugees are disappear Palestine Israeli Prime Minister the State Department one thing to the not refugees and there and its people but the Binyamin Netanyahu’s “removed Palestinians Palestinians. We will be no state called Palestinians will not Gulf Section Editor political career is under a completely from the Middle said: ‘You know, Palestine. Then what agree to losing their Mohammed Alkhereiji cloud of allegations of East. It used to be Palestinian let’s just not say it. collective identity. It is can the peace vision Society and Travel bribery, fraud and breach of territories or the Palestinian Let’s just say, let’s bring? likely this will lead to trust. Authority. Now, Palestinians work on the details of instability and continuing Sections Editor Key issues to be discussed don’t exist.” what this means.’” violence, which will affect Samar Kadi in the run-up to Election Day If the US administration is Recently, 22 Israeli both Palestinians and will not include the conflict to be believed, then Israel parliamentarians wrote to Israelis. Senior Correspondents with the Palestinians or the does not occupy any Pales- senior members of the US If a Palestinian state were Lamine Ghanmi (Tunis) occupation of their territo- tinian land or Syrian land, Congress explaining that a ruled out, how would ries. What Palestinian following US President Palestinian state poses a Palestinians identify them- Thomas Seibert (Istanbul)

people, what conflict and Donald Trump’s recognition greater threat to Israel than selves and their children? Regular Columnists what occupation? of Israeli sovereignty over the Boycott, Divestment and Israel has been using the term Israel has for decades been what the rest of the world Sanctions movement. “Arabs” to kill the individual Rashmee Roshan Lall trying to play down the considers to be the illegally If there is no occupation, Palestinian identity but Claude Salhani conflict and is arguing that it occupied Syrian Golan Jerusalem belongs to Israel, Palestinians will remain Yavuz Baydar is not at the heart of the Heights. the Palestinian refugees are proud of their homeland and wider Arab-Israeli conflict. In April, Greenblatt shared not refugees and there will will continue to struggle to On the ground, there are a map of Israel showing the be no state called Palestine. attain their full rights as Correspondents Israeli and Palestinian areas Golan Heights as part of Then what can the peace Palestinians in Palestine. Nazli Tarzi (London) and roads for Palestinians Israel. However, that map vision bring? and others for settlers in the still showed the West Bank Following the failure of the Kamel Hawwash is a Britain- Saad Guerraoui (Casablanca) West Bank, that distinction is (excluding East Jerusalem) Manama workshop to change based Palestinian university Dunia El-Zobaidi (London) less clear on a modern map of and Gaza shaded in a the dynamics, the Americans professor and writer. Roua Khlifi (Tunis)

Chief Designer For now, Trump-Iran talks are about talking Marwen el-Hmedi

Rashmee Roshan Lall Designers Ibrahim Ben Bechir Chances are the Iranians won’t be as wily — and as smart — as North Korea, which has strung Trump Hanen Jebali along through three meetings and lots of “beautiful” letters from Kim but no change of behaviour.

n September 2017, US but it’s not certain the Iran-US circumscribed by the ruling Khamenei has ruled out Contact editor at: President Donald series of the Trump Show will clerics. Rohani cannot make negotiations with the United [email protected] Trump was vowing the come to pass. do with a photo op; he must be States as “double poison,” “total destruction” of Any comparisons between responsive to public opinion, which dampens Trump’s desire North Korea. Eight Trump’s overtures to North especially with parliamentary for an easy and eye-catching months later, he was Korea and Iran were always elections in February. moment for the history books. shaking hands with superficial. In the days since This is a complication If it happened, it would be INorth Korean leader Kim Trump’s offer of talks, Tehran but it is partly of Trump’s an even bigger triumph than Al Arab Publishing House Jong-un and discerning great has, at least overtly, been less making. His 2018 unilateral the first Trump-North Korea Quadrant Building economic “potential” in the obliging than Pyongyang about withdrawal from the nuclear photo op. In June 2018, Trump 177-179 Hammersmith Road dictator’s isolated, impover- providing Trump with a short- deal and “maximum pressure” became the first sitting US London W6 8BS ished country. lived diplomatic triumph. campaign on Iran emboldened president to meet with the In May 2019, Trump was It wouldn’t involve much, regime hardliners and leader of North Korea. To meet tweeting about “the official end just, say, a photo op but weakened the pragmatic the Iranian president would top of Iran.” Then, as the G7 summit Rohani has demanded that all Rohani, who pushed the that. After all, the cry of “Death Tel: (+44) 20 7602 3999 in France closed August 26, he sanctions be lifted before any accord in his first term. to America!” doesn’t ring out in Fax: (+44) 20 7602 8778 spoke of Iran’s “tremendous meeting can take place. Iranian The fulminations of Hossein Pyongyang, as it has in Tehran potential” and the possibility of Foreign Minister Mohammad Shariatmadari, editor of the every Friday since the Islamic meeting with Iranian President Javad Zarif dismissed the Kayhan state-run newspaper, revolution of 1979 and former Hassan Rohani. prospect of a meeting as viewed as the hardliners’ US President Barack Obama, US Publisher: With apparent “unimaginable.” mouthpiece, are a good on whose watch the 2015 Iran The Arab Weekly USA LLC. friendliness, more extreme Chances are the Iranians indication of the hostility nuclear deal was negotiated, than he initially won’t be as wily — and aroused by Trump’s blithe only ever spoke to the Iranian [email protected] extended to North as smart — as North offer of talks with Rohani. leader on the phone. [email protected] Korea, Trump Korea, which has Shariatmadari said any such That Trump is eager to be even spoke of strung Trump meeting would be “madness.” the great dealmaker with Iran Tel: 248-679-6624 a “Make Iran That Trump is along through Funnily, Trump’s is painfully clear. That he will Rich Again” eager to be the three meetings conciliatory gestures towards have to tread carefully, so as not programme. great dealmaker and lots of Iran illustrate just how to anger Middle Eastern allies “MIRA” with Iran is “beautiful” different it is from North Korea. as well as sections of his own has the ring painfully clear. letters from Trump previously called Iran stridently anti-Iran Republican of #MAGA, Kim but no a “corrupt dictatorship” but, Party, is also abundantly clear. the “Make change of unlike Kim, Rohani doesn’t That Iran is unlikely to play Subscription & Advertising: America Great behaviour. Is this have the powers of a dictator. nice, quickly and easily like [email protected] Again” slogan that because the Iranians He doesn’t have carte blanche North Korea, is crystal clear. Tel : (+44) 020 3667 7249 animated Trump’s are especially wise or to engage in talks with the At this point, talking about 2016 presidential election remarkably foolish? country Iran calls the “Great talking about talks may be the campaign. In a sense, this Neither. The political Satan.” safest way forward for everyone Mohamed Al Mufti erratic US president appeared reality is that Iran is no North It is Iranian Supreme Leader concerned. Marketing & Advertising to be elevating Iran to a level Korea. It doesn’t have nuclear Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who Manager he hasn’t North Korea. weapons, which means Trump has the final say. He too, unlike Rashmee Roshan Lall is a It’s stuff and nonsense. can be a tad more dismissive, Kim, will eventually give columnist for The Arab Weekly. Direct: (+44) 20 8742 9262 This is reality television in the a point the Iranians recognise way to a successor, chosen Her blog can be found at www.alarab.co.uk biggest, most consequential and probably rue. It has by clerics elected to the www.rashmee.com and she is “Big Brother” house possible regular elections, even if Iranian Assembly of Experts. on Twitter: @rashmeerl. 8 September 1, 2019 News & Analysis Iraq Iraq struggles to stay out of US-Iran conflict

Azhar Al-Rubaie consideration when it installed a long-range missile defence system on the Iraqi-Iranian border without Baghdad getting permission from Iraq. Iraq Ambassador to Russia Haid- n July 2017, Iraq declared the ar Mansour Hadi, speaking in April Islamic State had been defeated at a conference in Baghdad, said and Iraqi forces recaptured Mo- that the Iraqi government had de- I sul, the last militant pocket but, cided to buy Russia’s S-400 mis- seemingly, US-Iran tensions are sile defence system. The S-400 is leading Iraq to be used as a conflict considered the most developed zone by Washington and Tehran. long-range missile defence system More than three huge explosions against aircraft. It reportedly can hit Iran-backed militias’ weapons detect targets 400km away and depots in Iraq in recent weeks. The 35km high. blasts come at a time of rising ten- Iran’s official TV announced that sion between the United States and Iran had improved a Russian-ori- Iran. gin Gamma defence system and it Unidentified US officials con- could help against US drones or fu- firmed that Israel was behind the ture attacks. air strikes against Iran’s targets on Iran is acting to firmly dig its roots Iraq but Washington distanced it- in Iraq, an attempt that angered self from the attacks. many Iraqis who say the country is Popular Mobilisation Forces being used by Iran as a conflict area (PMF) Commander Abu Mahdi al- amid US-Iran tensions but the Iraqi Muhandis, known for his loyalty to government has kept silent. Iran, issued a statement accusing Baghdad-based security analyst the United States of helping Israeli Hisham al-Hashimi said: “Iraq’s air unmanned aerial vehicles target defences have the very high capa- PMF bases. bility but one thing they couldn’t The statement claimed the PMF detect is an advanced Israeli air at- had information that the United tack.” Shadow war. Members of the Popular Mobilisation Forces at the scene of a drone attack near the Qaim States took four Israeli drones from This view was shared by Iraqi border crossing in Anbar province, August 25. (AFP) Azerbaijan to Iraq and blamed the Professor Ghazi Faisal Hussein, a United States for what happened. specialist in international develop- That leaves the PMF no choice but ment, who said: “Certainly, neither the formal Iraqi forces structures, PMF Chairman Falih Alfayyadh Iran should avoid using Iraq as to defend itself and its bases, the the PMF nor Iraqi forces have a de- they still have their own security issued a statement August 22, say- their battleground, as they try to statement said. veloped air force or modern weap- system receiving their orders and ing: “The statement attributed to do it now. ons to defend them. Even if they support from Iran. There are more Muhandis does not represent the “However, it is the responsibil- had, the advanced Israeli and US than 34 militias in Iraq directly government nor our views.” ity of the Iraqi government to work Iran is acting to firmly dig weapons could not be easily detect- linked to General Qassem Soleima- Observers say Iraqi Prime Min- with both Washington and Tehran its roots in Iraq, an ed by Iran’s radar system. So, Iran ni and are seeking to copy the Ira- ister Adel Abdul-Mahdi was to de- to keep Baghdad out of their con- attempt that angered has no intention of doing anything. nian al-Quds forces or the wilayat cide on the fate of militias, curb flicts. Iraq should have a stronger many Iraqis who say the It is a big mouth in media for falsely al-faqih in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Iranian influence and remove some presence in Washington to notify country is being used by claiming to have discovered Israeli Yemen.” top PMF’s leaders, such as Muhan- the administration and the US leg- Iran as a conflict area aircraft.” Iraqis expressed dismay at any dis. islative leadership about Iraq’s sit- amid US-Iran tensions. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Iranian presence in Iraq, and Iraqi sources who did not wish to uation,” Shamsulddin said. Netanyahu reportedly said Iran showed their displeasure when be named said Muhandis and Qais As part of its grip on Iraqi poli- Entifadh Qanbar, an Iraqi politi- has no immunity anywhere and Is- protesters set the Iranian consulate al-Khazali, head of Asa’ib Ahl al- tics, Tehran maintained influence cal analyst who lives in the United rael would act against Tehran and and the militia headquarters in Bas- Haq, made a secret visit to Iran fol- on PMF leaders, many of who were States, said Muhandis’s statement Iran-backed groups over the world ra on fire in 2018. lowing the targeting of PMF bases trained or funded by Iran. had been written by Iran. wherever necessary. “We have informed the Joint Op- in July. Abu Ala al-Walai, leader of the “The Iran-backed militias have erations Command that we will con- Sarkawt Shamsulddin, a member Azhar Al-Rubaie is a pro-Iran Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada been pervaded for years and have sider any foreign aircraft flying over of Iraq parliament from the Future freelance journalist based in Iraq. militia, said in a televised inter- had considerable influence in the our bases without the knowledge bloc, said: “It is a critical time for He has been working in the field of view: “It is easy for us in the resist- Iraqi Interior Ministry since the Is- of the Iraqi government as a hostile Iraq as we were able to win the war media since 2014. ance camp to fly drones to target lamic Supreme Council took the flight and we will deal with it ac- against the Islamic State but to pre- His writing focuses on politics, the US Embassy and bases.” power in Iraq,” Hussein said. cordingly and we will use all meth- vent it from re-emerging or having health, society, wars and human As usual, Tehran did not take the “Despite the Iraqi parliament’s ods of deterrence to prevent attacks another insurgent group weaken rights. Follow him neighbourhood’s sovereignty into legalisation of the PMF to be part of on our bases,” said Muhandis. Iraq, both the United States and on Twitter: @AzherRubaie. Viewpoint ISIS never disappeared from Iraq

s there something more created by Tehran in alliance with concepts of “homeland” and Iran has produced a militia revealing of the nature of the the United States when Iraq was “citizenship” from the relationship regime in Iraq to allow it to Iraqi regime than the Islamic invaded. It was the natural child of between authorities and members destroy a country that has always Ali al-Sarraf State? two types of invaders, each with of society. been the focus of a deep-seated Everybody is saying the its own goals and interests. They It was natural for those torn historical hatred on its part. It Islamic State (ISIS) is “mak- came together to ruin politics, apart by sectarian, tribal and fac- wasn’t planning on taking advan- Iing a comeback.” ISIS had never culture and administration in the tional allegiances to come together tage of its dominance over Iraq left in the first place and it was country and to produce sectarian- in loyalty to some kind of force, to provide a model for its own not defeated. The mechanisms ism, corrupt parties and militias. regardless of how culturally de- revolutionary project. It was only responsible for producing it have ISIS was born from a system graded it was. It was only natural interested in turning it into rub- continued to spin without inter- based on sectarian discrimina- for that force to commit endless ble and that’s exactly what it got. ruption. tion. So, it created new ground for massacres and atrocities. For its own reasons, the United Despite the collapse of ISIS’s hatred that social relations had ISIS was born of the brutality States wanted to bomb Iraq back self-proclaimed caliphate, no one never been familiar with before. of the sectarian parties that took to the Stone Age. So it did all it dared say that a definitive victory When ISIS declared one sect to be power in Iraq. Hundreds of thou- could to fragment it, tear apart was achieved over this organisa- superior to all others and provided sands of people were arrested, its social fabric and destroy its tion. There was no official an- it with money, power and arms, it tortured and violated and millions culture and historical heritage. nouncement to that effect and the gave the impetus to other sects to of people were forced to flee and It enjoyed handing it to a crass field commanders could still smell get hold of what they needed to had their property looted. It was political class that combines the presence of the enemy even survive, exactly in the same man- easy and natural for those among frivolity, moral decline and intel- though they did not see it or dared ner as ISIS. them who did not or could not lectual shallowness. The United track it. ISIS was born out of a system escape the tyranny of the sectarian States wanted a shattered Iraq, Wherever ISIS went, there was of unprecedented corruption so it militias to end up bearing arms. so it was only natural for the devastation. That’s hardly surpris- produced empires that plundered Several years of this tyranny latter to turn into a quagmire, ing and would not have changed tens of billions of dollars. As in all passed before ISIS came into exuding so much rot befitting of anything coming from an organi- other corrupt regimes, the loot being, such that the appropriate its new nature. sation whose strategy is based on was smuggled out of the coun- question should have been why it ISIS was nothing but bub- destruction. try and not injected in the local took all this time for it to emerge, bles from that swamp. It was Similarly, as long as there economy. This money disappeared rather than why it emerged. the rightful child of the rotten existed militias created and sup- inside the corrupt system as if It was only natural for all those choices made by Iran and the ported by Iran for the purpose of sucked into a giant black hole. who paid a heavy tribute from United States. sustaining corruption and desola- The militia system in Iraq their honour, their possessions Would it be possible to elimi- tion, it was only natural that there was one of the most important and the lives of their loved ones, nate an organisation produced would be militias that do not find elements of ISIS’s survival. The to look for a way to take revenge by such circumstances? ISIS was ISIS was the child of it difficult or fearful to produce militias’ purpose was not only to or look for an alternative system. an unavoidable reaction. It was a the reality created by devastation everywhere. weaken the state but to fragment Since the rules of the political decadent answer, or course, but The ISIS “production machine” society. Militias became a kind of game in Iraq did not leave room befitting of a degenerate reality Tehran in alliance has never ceased operating. All new identity. Unless you were a for alternatives from outside the that arose before it. So, as long with the United States that the war on ISIS did was to member of one of them, or at least sectarian framework governed by as the former remains, the latter destroy some of the “goods” that under its protection, you would hateful and corrupt militias, the will remain. when Iraq was came out of the production line. not be able to live in safety. surprise would have been that invaded. ISIS was the child of the reality This reality eliminated the something like ISIS did not emerge. Ali al-Sarraf is an Iraqi writer. September 1, 2019 9 Spotlight Drones Viewpoint Drone wars light up the sky in the Middle East

a strategic target. From hunters to prey, the drones have become a Alessandro target that must be eliminated in Arduino pre-emptive strikes. On August 25, one day after the IDF air strike, a scout drone opened the way for a drone car- nce more, and at a rying an explosive payload that faster pace, the crisis detonated near the Hezbollah involving drones is media centre in the southern part escalating in the Mid- of Beirut. dle East. With shorter The suspected Israeli drone intervals between one attack was quickly followed by an- Oincident and the next, militarised other suicide drone attack on the unmanned aerial vehicles, aka Iranian-trained Popular Mobilisa- drones, are not only saturating the tion Forces (PMF) in al-Qaim, Iraq. airspace in conflict areas but also While the second strike claimed becoming strategic targets. the life of two PMF fighters, the As a result, the burgeoning first attack only damaged a build- drone war has become a pos- ing but Lebanese President Michel sible cause for spreading conflict Aoun stated such drone strikes or could become grounds for could be considered a declaration declaration of war. The August 24 of war. bombing by the Israeli Air Force of The modus operandi of the Iranian drones deployed in Syria Beirut attack was similar to one showcased how a hunter’s drone on the other side of the world in can be transformed into the prey. the assassination attempt against The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) Venezuelan President Nicolas claimed that several Iranian “killer Maduro in August 2018. With less drones’’ deployed near Damascus efficiency than the Beirut attack, were on the verge of becoming both drones involved in the Cara- operational. cas attack detonated prematurely Advanced capabilities. An employee stands next to unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) at the Elbit The capabilities of drones — al- and were out of control. Active Systems Ltd. drone factory in Rehovot, Israel. (Reuters) legedly made by Iran — that were jammers, lack of piloting skills or employed by the Houthis in the just a too great of a distance from Yemeni conflict did not go unno- the target could be reasons for the nomically affordable and techni- Despite the fact that online me- generated a great deal of suspense ticed. The evolution of unmanned failure. cally viable. As the dawn of drone dia are riddled with theories and as well as anxiety over Hezbollah’s aerial vehicles (UAVs) from flying Unfortunately, in a not so distant warfare nears, the true potential allegations about the target of the response. scouts to suicide flying bombs is future, these problems will be and effect of the artificial intelli- Beirut drone attack and the events Three days after the Beirut drone not new but recent developments solved with solutions that are eco- gence lethal autonomous systems surrounding it, the strike unequiv- attack, the Lebanese Army fired at in Yemen show a sharp increase in will be revealed. ocally underlines the operational two Israeli drones crossing out of armed UAV efficiency and effec- For the time being, humans are implications that drones are ac- Lebanese airspace near the Israeli tiveness. still in the decision-making loop quiring on the battlefield as well as border. The next drone strike, from The Houthis’ drone warfare The Beirut drone in terms of both target acquisition in covert operations. Drones lower whichever side it comes, is going reached a new level of sophistica- attack unequivocally and the final order to attack. While both the political and economic to happen soon, generating ripple tion with the damaging of a Saudi the moral debate over whether it costs of retribution. effects that will go well beyond the oil pumping station near Riyadh. underlines the is necessary to keep a human deci- At the same time, the Israeli Air operational area. For example, the Houthis’ drone operational sion maker in the kill decision loop Force’s targeting mission con- A thin red line on UAVs’ warfare that struck the station had flown intensifies, the day is coming when firmed what former Israeli General has been drawn in the Lebanese several hundred kilometres before implications that humans will not be part of the Yoav Galant stated: that drones are sky. making the precision strike. drones are acquiring conflict equation until the drone a balance-changing weapon. While Better targeting and longer fly- on the battlefield as is well past the fail-safe point. Or, Syria has proven from both state Alessandro Arduino is the author ing distances, compounded with at least, the human variable in the and non-state actors to be a useful of “China’s Private Army. Protect- an economy of scale, have trans- well as in covert equation will persist but just as a testing ground for battle-ready ing the New Silk Road,” Palgrave- formed Iranian-made drones into operations. target. drones, the attack in Beirut has Macmillan, 2018. Increasing reliance on drones raises critical questions about war-time ethics

n June 20, a US Navy Iranian air defence capabilities to digm for the ethical and political the military and civilian sphere, Alessandro Arduino RQ-4N Broad Area deny access to the US airpower norms of war. allowing weaker actors to com- Maritime Surveil- projection, a compelling set of The last decade, which was pete against more powerful ones lance drone, a vari- questions needs to be answered. characterised by US Preda- via asymmetrical confrontation. ant of the $180 mil- Does a technological inno- tor drones man-hunting from At the same time, both armed lion Global Hawk, vation in the military sphere Afghanistan to Somalia, carried drones and cyber weapons carry Owas downed by the Iranian constitute a casus belli? the promise of power projec- a low entry barrier to enter into military’s aerospace defence. A When does a cyber-strike or a tion without vulnerability. The the weapons market compared direct military confrontation be- drone shoot-down constitute an US Navy drone downed by Iran to former monopolies of violence tween the United States and Iran act of war? revealed the contrary. The chain retained by few countries. was avoided at the last minute. What constitutes a proportion- of events that might have been Regulating the use of drones is An attack August 25, allegedly al military response to an attack spawned by the shoot-down doable because the framework carried out with Israeli drones on a drone? could have led to the loss of sev- in international law exists. While in Beirut against the Hezbol- The reminiscence of the Rus- eral “real lives.” emerging countries have called lah media centre, and an Israeli sian shooting down of the Cold The promise of warfare with- for laws and regulations to be air attack on an Iranian drone War-era U-2 spy plane is related out risk is accompanied by a low- built from the ground rather than factory in Syria underlines the to the fact that both the R4-4N er risk threshold, that contrary to on existing Western frameworks, relevance that the aircraft have and the U-2 are bulky planes, the prediction is increasing the it is compelling to address the on the battlefield. 35- and 32-metre wing spans, chance for conflict escalation. problem before an unmanned The increasing presence of respectively. Both lack effective Speculation on the effect of casus belli presents itself. unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) countermeasures to deceive or the next wave of technological If the codification of the lethal — drones — and the future role outmanoeuvre a SAM. changes on states’ conflict and use of drones is going to be of lethal autonomous aircraft are This time, compared with the hybrid warfare does not have subjugated to the state inter- not defined by the law of war. May 1, 1960, U-2 incident, the to be solely related to tactical est, a Machiavellian approach There is a dire need to regulate a United States did not have the aspects of a new weapon system. could lead us to predictable proportional response and define compelling need to rescue a pilot A Cold War mentality anchored false flag operations and casus how drones may constitute a getting entangled in endless ne- to the notion that technologi- belli manufactured by the use of casus belli. gotiations and a propaganda skir- cal development reduced the drones. Envisioning the opposite The evolving patterns of the mish. Nevertheless, the downing propensity for war is outdated. approach could lead to justify- UAV deployments from Syria to of the US drone was almost the Drone or cyber deterrence has ing the attempt to shoot down Yemen, which have showcased precursor of a severe military yet to be efficiently postulated lethal drones as a legitimate act how wars still need to be ended retaliation on human targets or and put into practice, avoiding of self-defence. The recent attack with boots on the ground, have even a full-scale conflict. the trap of the allure of technol- in Beirut is a case in point. exposed how war can be ignited Every day the airspace in the ogy. Finding a legally and morally by a remote-controlled vehicle. Middle East from Syria to Yemen Scientific developments too acceptable middle ground is Even though Iran possesses is saturated with armed UAVs. It many times have been con- not a short-term task. It is quite the sophisticated Russian S-300 is probable that the submersed sidered a silver bullet. In the probable that the military indus- air defence system, the Islamic space from the Strait of Hormuz 1999 publication “Unrestricted trial complex has learnt the les- Revolutionary Guard Corps to the Bab el Mandeb Strait is Warfare,” Qiao Liang and Wang son of June 20, which is that the Finding a legally and claimed that the US drone had sharing the same fate. Xiangsu, colonels in China’s Peo- next generation of surveillance morally acceptable been shot down by a locally Gregoire Chamayou, author of ple’s Liberation Army, stressed drones will have anti-missile developed surface-to-air missile “A Theory of the Drone,” wrote the speed and the severity of the countermeasures and maneuver- middle ground is not (SAM). While the debate among that the rise of the UAV catalysed new technological innovations. ing capabilities — for a price, of a short-term task. military experts is centred on the emergence of a new para- New technologies coexist in course. 10 September 1, 2019 News & Analysis Gulf Yemen Saudi deputy defence minister discusses Yemen, Iran during US visit

The Arab Weekly staff backed by the United Arab Emirates while the government is supported by Saudi Arabia. Riyadh and Abu London Dhabi have tried to present a uni- fied stance to overcome the issue. audi Deputy Defence Minis- Despite being on the same side in ter Prince Khalid bin Salman the fight in Yemen against Houthi bin Abdulaziz concluded a rebels, the Yemeni government S 3-day official visit to Wash- and the southern separatists have ington during which he had high- different agendas for a post-war level talks with US officials that fo- Yemen. cused on developments in Yemen. For decades, many in southern The official Saudi Press Agency Yemen have felt exploited by lead- said Prince Khalid led a Saudi- ers in the north, mainly former Close coordination. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (R) meets with Saudi Deputy Defence delegation for talks at the US State President Ali Abdullah Saleh and Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman bin Abdulaziz in Washington, August 28. (SPA) Department with US Secretary of his associates. Anti-Saleh senti- State Mike Pompeo that centred ment led to the formation of the on the situation in Yemen and on Southern Movement in 2007, which When the latest round of fight- the people with a dignified life and the Iranian regime’s dangerous “confronting Iranian hostile activi- has the re-establishment of South ing began August 10, Saudi Arabia those who fight the Yemenis in fa- activities and human rights,” he ties and in combating extremism Yemen as an independent state as and the United Arab Emirates were vour of the velayat-e faqih and the added. and terrorism and the importance its main goal. quick to form a committee to ease Iranian terrorist regime’s agenda in The Trump administration could of protecting freedom of navigation tensions and oversee a truce. the region.” be preparing to initiate direct talks in international waters.” “Internal dialogue, and not fight- Pompeo reiterated US support for with the Iran-backed Houthi rebels The US-Saudi talks come at a time Pompeo reiterated US ing, is the only way to resolve in- a negotiated resolution between to end the 4-year-old war, a report of continued fighting between the support for a negotiated ternal Yemeni differences,” Prince the internationally recognised gov- in the Wall Street Journal stated. internationally recognised govern- resolution between the Khalid posted on Twitter ahead of ernment of Yemen and the STC, That would be the first direct con- ment of Yemen and the Southern internationally recognised his US trip. lauding Saudi efforts to mediate the tact by the US government with the Transitional Council (STC). government of Yemen and “We are working with the UAE dispute, while stressing that dia- Iran-allied militia since December On August 29, the day Prince the STC. for security and stability in Aden, logue was the only way to achieve in Sweden during UN-sponsored Khalid concluded his Washington Shabwa and Abyan and… to unify a stable and unified Yemen. peace talks, which resulted in what visit, the STC took control of the The movement rebranded itself ranks and voices to combat terror- “Very important for the unity, became known as the Stockholm interim capital, Aden, after forcing as the STC in 2017, which also saw ist threats, whether from the Iran- stability and prosperity of Yemen Agreement. government troops to withdraw a revival of the secessionist narra- backed Houthis or from al-Qaeda that the Yemeni government and The Wall Street Journal specu- from the southern port city after 24 tive. This did not sit well with the and Daesh (the Islamic State),” STC resolve their dispute,” he said lated that “secret talks” between hours of fighting. government of Yemen and led to Prince Khalid said, adding that on Twitter. the United States and the Houthis Infighting in the anti-Houthi coa- increased tensions and sporadic “there are vast differences between “Had a productive meeting with could be in Oman. It said US of- lition complicates the military dy- fighting, with Abu Dhabi and Ri- those who quarrel over the inter- @kbsalsaud today to discuss #Yem- ficials were hoping Saudi Arabia namics on the ground. The STC is yadh stepping in to calm tensions. ests of their nation and providing en, maritime security, countering would participate.

Viewpoint Is US-backed dialogue the answer for Yemen?

hile Saudi gotiating table. To what end? and direct channels of commu- logue but test the other parties’ Arabia and the The United States should know nication when there are growing commitment to serious engage- United States the Houthis are not reliable peace fears of a wider regional war. This ment. agreed on partners. After all, a group whose could help de-escalate tensions In this case, it is clear that the Iman Zayat the need for favourite chant is “Death to and allow critical alternatives to Houthis are unwilling to strike dialogue to end America” can hardly be expected be explored. a resolution that has a serious Wthe war in Yemen, a projectile re- to share a compelling vision for However, the United States’ chance of ending the conflict. portedly fired by the Iran-backed peace with its foes. openness to dialogue with the The outcome of the US-backed Houthi rebels landed in Abha Somehow, the United States Houthis raises many concerns: negotiations will likely bear this International Airport, underlining has fooled itself into thinking it What, for instance, are the poten- out, revealing the Houthis to have the stark divergences between is adopting a pragmatic approach tial offers that Washington would no interest or ability to build a the country’s competing powers. to Yemen, somewhat like the make to the Houthis and what functioning nation-state. The August 28 meeting be- approach it took with the Taliban concessions, if any, would they Dialogue can and should be tween Saudi Deputy Defence in Afghanistan or with North Ko- receive in return? part of the solution on other Minister and former Ambassador rean leader Kim Jong-un, whom After all, if Washington gives fronts and Saudi Arabia, which to the United States Prince Khalid Trump has met and shook hands any ground to the Houthis, who is leading the coalition in sup- bin Salman bin Abdulaziz and US with numerous times. appointed their first ambassador port of Yemen’s internationally Secretary of State Mike Pompeo Trump’s foreign policy has been to Tehran in August, it would recognised government, could be in Washington came after news erratic. He has proven willing to undermine its maximum pres- a useful mediator between Presi- that America was preparing to ini- sit down with his fiercest foes, sure campaign against Iran. dent Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi’s tiate direct talks with the Houthis even after antagonising them, This would result in the Houthis forces and the separatist South- to end the 4-year-old war, people and the Iran-backed Houthis are gaining legitimacy, credibility ern Transitional Council. familiar with the plans said. no exception. and, in turn, power — a disastrous On this, Saudi Arabia and the To convene the talks, Wash- It would be wrong to say there prospect for the Yemeni people. United States seem to be of one ington is counting on Riyadh to are no benefits to this strategy. Riyadh should follow the same mind. A release from the US State participate in secret meetings In Yemen, dialogue with the course it has previously: Never Department stated that both with Houthi leaders in Oman that Houthis would open important say no to peace-seeking and dia- Pompeo and Prince Khalid agreed could lead to a ceasefire, sources that “dialogue represents the told the Wall Street Journal. only way to achieve a stable, uni- However, the United States’ fied and prosperous Yemen.” willingness to have its ally With Yemen well into its fourth engage in “secret talks” with year of conflict, it is understand- the Houthis, whom it considers able that all avenues for peace Iranian proxies, is raising seri- must be explored and dialogue, ous questions about the efficacy even with those who have diver- of its foreign policy. Not only gent views, should not always be does it underline US President written off. However, it should Donald Trump’s at times volatile also be considered that dialogue policy moves, it brings to the fore sometimes has adverse effects Washington’s growing frustration on conflicts. It can buy ill-inten- with — and incoherent response tioned parties time to expand Dialogue sometimes to — a conflict that has turned their influence and sow instabil- has adverse effects on into a dangerous front line in the ity, ultimately working to the showdown with Tehran. detriment of those seeking peace. conflicts. It can buy At the heart of the problem is Given the intricate power ill-intentioned parties the Houthis’ agenda. The Iran- dynamics in Yemen, Riyadh is ex- time to expand their backed rebels have given no pected to once again demonstrate indication they are interested its commitment to peace and influence, ultimately in peace, deploying rockets and stability, which are its core objec- working to the drones at Saudi Arabia. Now tives for the Arab Gulf region. detriment of those Washington is asking Riyadh to Thirsty for war. Houthi militiamen ride on a truck towards a forget about these flagrant attacks battlefront following a gathering aimed at mobilising more Iman Zayat is Managing Editor of seeking peace. and join their nemesis at the ne- fighters in Sana’a, August 1. (AP) The Arab Weekly. September 1, 2019 11 News & Analysis Egypt

Cairo wary about security implications of Gaza violence

Ahmed Megahid

Cairo

gypt has been monitoring the situation in the Gaza Strip amid fears that widen- E ing violence in the Palestin- ian territory would affect security in Sinai and lead to regional unrest. Security conditions in Sinai and Gaza, Egyptian analysts said, are strongly connected. There is con- cern that deterioration in the Pal- estinian coastal enclave could have negative consequences for Sinai. “Deteriorating conditions in Gaza directly threaten Egypt’s national security,” said Saad al-Zunt, the head of local think-tank Strategic Studies Centre. Coordinated bomb attacks August 27 on two security posts in Gaza City led to speculation about relations between Hamas and oth- er factions in Gaza. Senior Hamas members, including spokesman Fawzi Barhoum, accused Pales- tinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas of being behind the attacks that left three Hamas policemen dead. “We will not jump to conclusions following the blasts,” Barhoum said on Twitter. “Nevertheless, the intel- ligence of the PA has always stood behind attempts to destabilise Gaza for the sake of the Israeli intelli- (AFP) gence.” Close monitoring. Egyptian soldiers stand guard in a watchtower across the border with Gaza. Sources within Fatah, Abbas’s movement, which rules the occu- than just traditional animosities be- This may explain reports about met with several officials, includ- organisation. Hamas prevented pied West Bank, accused Hamas of tween its factions and Tel Aviv. Egyptian ultimatums to Hamas ing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Gaza extremists from crossing into being responsible for deteriorating Growing violence between Gaza’s against firing missiles on Israel or Khamenei. Delegation head Saleh Egypt through its network of tun- conditions in Gaza, including the factions and Israel is certainly launching a proxy war against Israel al-Arouri, deputy chairman the Ha- nels. latest flare-up of violence on the linked to what is happening inside on behalf of Iran or Hezbollah. mas Politburo, said Hamas and Iran However, factional fighting in border between the Gaza Strip and Israel, including the elections. It is Egypt, media reports said, threat- were in the same camp. Gaza could lead to the breaking of Israel. also connected with regional de- ened it would stop brokering nego- An escalation of hostilities be- Hamas or the making of a new alli- Gaza factions fired several mis- velopments, including a potential tiations between Hamas and Israel tween Gaza’s factions and Israel ance between the Gaza ruling group siles into Israel, which led to Israeli showdown between Iran and Israel. if Hamas allows Gaza to be used as could lead to war and a rush of Pal- and Gaza’s radicals. This would re- air strikes August 25 only days af- However, there seem to be more site to launch missiles against Isra- estinians at the Egyptian border turn Egypt to square one if Hamas ter Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin details in the larger picture of what el. Unidentified sources were quot- with Gaza as well as security threats eased the infiltration of radicals into Netanyahu threatened a wide-scale is happening in Gaza, analysts said. ed as saying Cairo asked Hamas to in Sinai, analysts said. Sinai in return for peace. campaign in Gaza, regardless of Is- A new player is apparently emerg- provide written assurance it would Egypt has been battling a branch “After all, Hamas is responsi- rael’s snap elections September 17. ing in Gaza who will be known move ahead with de-escalation of the Islamic State (ISIS) in Sinai for ble for the Gaza Strip,” said Tarek “Netanyahu is keen on stepping only when the perpetrators of the with Israel. several years. The Egyptian Army Fahmi, a professor of political sci- up violence in Gaza to deflect at- August 27 attacks are identified, Some experts see a connec- has significantly weakened ISIS but ence at Cairo University. “It can tention from the economic and po- they said. tion between Iran and violence in the group is capable of staging at- control the situation there if it really litical crises he has at home,” said Egypt will not allow Hamas to fight Gaza, given that the latest erup- tacks. wants to.” Hazem Abu Shanab, a member of Israel on its border on behalf of Iran tion of Gaza hostilities towards Is- Hamas cooperated with Cairo in the Revolutionary Council of Fatah. to punish Israel for attacking Iran’s af- rael comes a month after a delega- squeezing ISIS, given that Gazans Ahmed Megahid is an Egyptian The crisis in Gaza could be deeper filiates in Iraq, Syria or Lebanon. tion from Hamas visited Iran and would often try to join the militant reporter in Cairo. Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood members seek deal with authorities

Amr Emam leader. Most were convicted of in- In late 2014, Egyptian authori- volvement in the killing of dozens ties outlawed the Brotherhood, of policemen, burning churches disbanded it as an organisation and Cairo and bomb attacks in which civilians dissolved dozens of affiliated agen- died. cies. Authorities have seized tens housands of Muslim Broth- Those signing the letter said they of billions of Egyptian pounds in erhood junior members are ready for any measures decided Brotherhood funds to deprive it of have entreated Egyptian by authorities to ensure they would money that could be used in terror- T authorities to release them not return to violent activity if re- ist attacks. from jail in return for a promise to leased. They propose to each pay Reaction to the initiative by sen- abandon the Islamist movement’s $5,000 to the state treasury, an ior members of the international policies, lead an apolitical life and amount of money, some people organisation of the Brotherhood refrain from playing any religious say, that could make a vast amount included quick denials of links with role in the country. of cash available for the national the proposal. “We want to reach an agreement economy, given the number of “Those who want to quit the or- that ends this ordeal,” inmates said Brotherhood members in jail. ganisation are free to do so,” said in a letter to Egyptian authorities Egyptian authorities have not Ibrahim Munir, a senior member of “The Brotherhood detainees officially commented on the “rec- the Brotherhood international or- have learnt the lesson the hard onciliation” offer, which comes ganisation. way, are ready to reconsider their from junior-level detainees and has Apart from reflecting the state positions and aspire to have a new nothing to do with the Brotherhood of desperation within Brotherhood chance to live peacefully with other as an organisation. However, it is ranks, the initiative throws light on Egyptians,” they added in the let- stirring debate with Brotherhood rifts between the junior members Lesson learnt? Senior Muslim Brotherhood member Saad ter, which was leaked to the media. opponents warning against official and the old guard of the Islamist or- al-Katatni (C-R) sits alongside fellow member Sobhy Saleh (C-L) leniency with a movement that has ganisation. behind bars during their trial, last December. (AFP) Those signing the letter said antagonised the Egyptian public The Brotherhood’s policy of an- they are ready for any since Morsi’s ouster. tagonising the Egyptian state and measures decided by “Such an initiative is totally un- public, including by letting Broth- Brotherhood. “They live in wealth ior members. They are likely stuck acceptable,” said security expert erhood militias loose, staging ter- in Europe and leave the majority of between a regime unwavering in its authorities to ensure they Hatem Saber. “It is only an attempt rorist attacks and carrying out a group members alone on the front position towards the Brotherhood would not return to violent by these Brotherhood members to media war against the government line.” and a leadership that cares nothing activity if released. return to the political stage, using a of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah In 2014, Sisi expressed opposition about its followers, analysts said. Tantamount to a new “recon- twisted method.” al-Sisi, showed no success. to releasing Islamists from jails and “The leadership is letting the ciliation initiative,” the letter was Egypt’s clampdown on the Broth- While Brotherhood leaders incite making reconciliation with them. members of the group down and signed by approximately 1,500 jun- erhood has almost totally under- its members to act against Egyp- He said that, as minister of defence, this was totally expected,” said ior members of the Muslim Broth- mined the group and done away tian authorities, the leaders live in he had advised Morsi against let- Muneer Adeeb, a specialist in Is- erhood. with its organisational presence relative ease in Europe, including ting Islamists out of the jails. lamism. “This leadership leaves the Authorities arrested and jailed on the street. Egypt also initiated in Turkey where most Brotherhood “I told him [Morsi] that you are members to bear alone the brunt of thousands of Muslim Brotherhood a cultural war against the Islamist leaders were welcomed. releasing from the jails people who public and state anger at the Broth- members and sympathisers fol- movement, including the use of the “The leadership of the Brother- will kill us,” Sisi said. erhood.” lowing the 2013 ouster of Egyp- media and the religious establish- hood cares nothing about group This may give insight into how tian President Muhammad Morsi, ment, to defeat the Brotherhood members who are in jail,” said Ibra- Sisi’s regime might view the new Amr Emam is an Arab Weekly a long-time Muslim Brotherhood ideology. him Rabie, a former member of the initiative of the Brotherhood jun- contributor in Cairo. 12 September 1, 2019 News & Analysis Tunisian Elections

Viewpoint The election of all doubts

n mid-September, Tunisian governments since 2011 and the detention on charges of tax eva- very permeable to the easy spread voters will head to the polls complexity of the problems at sion and money laundering, his of emotion. The result is a rise in Oussama to decide who will be their hand, such scepticism comes easy. campaign staff seems confident the polarisation of political and Romdhani next president. The anti-establishment streak that his incarceration will only journalistic discourse.” The polarisation of the 2014 that is part of the populist narra- boost his electoral fortunes. Populism might have acquired elections and the charismatic tive of several candidates is too Free Destourian Party President a negative connotation in modern Ipresence of Beji Caid Essebsi have Manichaeistic but it accommo- Abir Moussi shares some of the politics even it has been associ- given way to a splintered land- dates many voters who have no attributes of the populists but also ated with the election of a US scape with no obvious front-run- time for nuances. those of more conventional can- president and the triumph of ner who could win the majority of As defined in the Guardian by didates. Moussi doesn’t tire from Brexit. It is the political equivalent votes in the first round. Georgia University Professor Cas haranguing crowds and clash- of popular culture as contrasted Qualifying for the second round Mudde, populism is “an ideol- ing with rivals. Voters who are to highbrow culture. Long gone might, in fact, depend on a frac- ogy that considers society to be unhappy with their deteriorating are the days when popular culture tion of a percentile. ultimately separated into two quality of life or are yearning for was frowned upon. Populist and There is no figure among the 26 homogeneous and antagonistic easier, simpler times have swollen anti-establishment politics attract final candidates who rises above groups, ‘the pure people’ versus the ranks of her party. a growing audience that cannot be the fray. There are no historic ‘the corrupt elite’.” Among many of the candidates, dismissed as driven by emotional- leaders and no charismatic per- Kais Said, a candidate with not just Moussi, the legacy of ism and ignorance. sonalities, although many feel wide appeal, promises a bottom- Habib Bourguiba, Tunisia’s first In these Tunisian elections, they have the mettle to “save up political process that would president, provides a potent sym- much of the public looks for per- Tunisia.” vindicate the “unfinished upris- bol of statesman-like vision and sonal appeal of fresh faces with Many, including some who ing” of “revolutionary youth.” His leadership. The founding father’s comforting discourse. Convincing served in recent years in sen- supporters look up to him to lead mythology serves as a shelter in programmes draw only a few. ior government positions, are them to victory over “corrupt” el- current days of uncertainty. In the country’s world of supply distancing themselves from the ements from the previous regime Under the sway of populists and demand, populism and anti- political establishment. Anyone and foreign powers that deprive and other anti-establishment establishment discourse fulfil the associated with the government Tunisia of its natural resources. candidates, voters do not look at need for voters to express their will have a tough time convincing Often poaching in the Islamists’ programmes, even when they are unhappiness about politicians voters he or she could be part of backyard, Said presents himself as fully articulated. They are drawn and their policies. Nobody knows the solution. a defender of “identity.” to emotional gratification in their where the anti-establishment In recent years, confidence in An even more populist candi- adversarial contests with other wave will lead, considering the Tunisian institutions has taken a date, Nabil Karoui, head of the contenders. Instead of fixing what divided ranks and endless sniping If candidates with serious beating, except perhaps Qalb Tounes (Heart of Tunisia) doesn’t work, they promise a total between the more conventional true ability to “save for security agencies and the political party, says it is “from the overhaul, the Tunisian Constitu- candidates, especially in the Tunisia” military in their fight against ter- heart” that he speaks to the poor tion and all. Their supporters look modernist camp. Furthermore, rorism. and is better than all others in his for reinforcement and not for if candidates with true ability to underestimate the There are, hence, doubts about ability to “reach their hearts.” He discussion of the issues in social “save Tunisia” underestimate appeal of the the ability of politicians to pull promises to correct the ills of the media. the appeal of the populists, they the country out of its economic system that are at the root of so Claudia Alvares, associate could be in for a September sur- populists, they predicament. There is even less much poverty and marginalisa- professor at Lusofona University prise. could be in for a confidence in their ability to tackle tion. in Lisbon, said: “The anger that September the endemic problem of corrup- Opinion polls put him in a good populist politicians manage to Oussama Romdhani tion. Considering the unimpres- position to be among the front- channel is fuelled by social media is Editor-in-Chief of surprise. sive results achieved by successive runners. Even though he is in posts because social media are The Arab Weekly. Tunisian PM urges continued Presidential hopeful Abdelkrim Zbidi says he will focus on economy after election amend constitution if elected Tarek Amara Tarek Amara minister and the president,” said and Angus McDowall and Angus McDowall Zbidi, 69. “This is unreasonable. The lack of efficiency in this hybrid sys- tem disrupts economic recovery and Tunis Tunis democratic transition.” The constitution’s shortcomings unisian Prime Minister unisian Defence Minister became clear the past two years dur- Youssef Chahed, a candidate Abdelkrim Zbidi said he ing disagreements between the pres- for president in the country’s would amend the Tunisian ident and the prime minister. How- T September 15 election, said T Constitution if he wins ever, the possible amendment of a Tunisia should press ahead with his September’s presidential election constitution agreed by parliament government’s focus on the economy with changes to end an “unreason- five years ago after difficult nego- and security if it is to “join the club of able” division of power between the tiations between rival parties, could strong democracy.” prime minister and the head of state, prove divisive. Chahed said the “difficult” reforms a move rivals oppose. Ennahda, along with some civil could cost him politically but that Zbidi, among a few prominent can- society organisations, rejected the they had stopped the economy from didates in a field of 26 certified candi- move, saying it is too early to judge collapsing and that things were im- dates, is supported by some secular a constitution that has not yet been proving. parties but he said in an interview fully implemented. Some bodies Spending cuts and tax and fuel High hopes. Tunisia’s Prime Minister Youssef Chahed, a candidate August 27 that he was ready to work mandated by the constitution, in- price increases caused frustration in the upcoming presidential elections, gestures during an interview with the moderate Islamist Ennahda cluding a new Constitutional Court, among many Tunisians, prompting with Reuters in Tunis, August 29. (Reuters) Movement. have not yet been set up. strikes and protests, and raising con- He also said he would quickly reo- Zbidi, a technocrat and medical cern over disaffection in a country pen the Tunisian Embassy in Syria, doctor, is supported by secular par- that embraced democracy only after by poor public services. been on the verge of collapse when citing a need for security cooperation ties including Nidaa Tounes, found- a 2011 revolution. Tunisia’s post-revolutionary con- his government took over in 2016, a and difficulties faced by Tunisians ed by his close ally, the late President “We have to focus on the economy stitution splits power between the year after jihadist attacks devastated living there. Beji Caid Essebsi. He has served in order to give Tunisians prosper- president and prime minister, giving the country’s crucial tourism sector. Despite economic troubles, Tu- twice as defence minister, from 2011- ity and welfare, in order to give jobs the head of state control only over While cutting the deficit, the govern- nisia has had a smoother march to- 13 and again since 2017 in coalition for young Tunisians and in order to foreign and defence policy. ment diverted more money towards wards democracy than any of the governments that included both En- prepare for a new sustainable model However, Chahed said that, if security. other Arab nations that tried to fol- nahda and secular parties. of development in Tunisia,” Chahed elected in the September 15 vote, he Tunisia had 5.6 million tourist vis- low its example in 2011 by throwing Though some secularists rejected said in English. would use his position as president its in 2016 but 9 million are expected off autocratic rule and it will also sharing power with Ennahda after to focus on security issues, bring- this year and “we can target” 10 mil- have a parliamentary election in Oc- the coming elections, Zbidi said he Chahed said “difficult” ing foreign investment and securing lion next year, he said. tober. would do so if the country’s interests stronger EU support because of Tu- The fiscal deficit will be 3% of GDP Zbidi did not say whether his con- required it. reforms could cost him nisia’s place on the front line of the next year, compared to about 3.9% stitutional proposals would switch “Everyone knows that I am inde- politically but he said they Mediterranean migration crisis. now and 7.4% three years ago, while the country to a wholly parliamen- pendent and I do not accept any direc- had stopped Tunisia’s “The economy is no longer threat- inflation would drop to about 5% by tary system or a presidential one, tions from any party but I am willing economy from collapsing and ened by high deficits but of course the end of next year from the high of saying that should be decided in a to work in harmony with everyone for that things were improving. now we should look to the future. We 7.8% last year, Chahed said. referendum. the benefit of Tunisia,” he said. should boost the economy through “All the difficult measures we have The constitution agreed in 2014 af- Asked if that included Ennahda, he While Tunisia emerged as the only boosting foreign direct investment, taken are for the benefit of the coun- ter years of rule by strongman Presi- said it did “as long as [it does] not im- relative success story of the “Arab tourism activity, agricultural activ- try, such as reducing energy subsi- dent Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali split pose any lifestyle on Tunisians and spring” revolts that it triggered in ity,” he said. dies, raising contributions to social power between the president and a respect their freedoms.” 2011, analysts have said economic “We have to work on a new deal funds and imposing some taxes,” he government chosen by parliament. Zbidi said restoring ties with Syria troubles and a string of jihadist at- with our friends in the EU… Tunisia said. Though directly elected, the presi- was needed for the sake of Tunisians tacks could blow its transition to de- is protecting the south border of Eu- “We did so despite the enormous dent only controls foreign and de- living in Syria and to coordinate on mocracy off course. rope and we can no longer do that in political cost that we know but the fence policy. Most other powers are security after many Tunisians trav- Nationally, unemployment has this condition,” he said, urging more country’s interest required that,” he held by the prime minister, proposed elled to Syria to join the jihadist Is- risen from 12% before the revolution European investment and political added in Arabic. by the biggest party in parliament. lamic State group. to 15.2% but in some cities it stands at engagement. “The constitution disperses pow- about 30%, with poverty aggravated Chahed said the economy had (Reuters) ers and decisions between the prime (Reuters) September 1, 2019 13 News & Analysis Tunisian Elections Tunisia’s elites make voices heard ahead of election

Lamine Ghanmi process.” Chahed’s supporters said the tim- ing of Karoui’s arrest did not serve Tunis the interests of their candidate. Ex- perts said Karoui’s detention could unisia’s main trade union, strengthen his voter appeal. economists and other intel- The influential Tunisian General lectuals are leveraging their Trade Union (UGTT), with some 1 T weight ahead of the presi- million members and supporters, dential election that could prove has not endorsed a candidate. critical in reversing years of eco- The UGTT sent economic ques- nomic and political tumult. tions to candidates to gain better Candidates in the race have been perspective on their policy priori- courting prominent voices, hoping ties. The union, with an essentially to build support for themselves and progressive power base, said it their parties. would not support the Islamist En- Tunisians head to the polls Sep- nahda Movement candidate, Abdel- tember 15 to vote for their next pres- fattah Mourou. ident, selecting from a pool of 26 Zbidi, running as an independent, candidates. Parliamentary elections seemed confident in a television will follow October 6 and a presi- interview that he would gain the dential runoff, if needed, will take UGTT’s backing. He has received place no later than November 3. support from major secularist par- Among the leading prospects for ties, including Afeq Tounes and the presidency are Prime Minister Nidaa Tounes, which was founded Youssef Chahed, Defence Minister by his close ally, late President Beji Abdelkrim Zbidi and media mogul Caid Essebsi. Nabil Karoui. Each has strong name However, as tensions flared be- recognition and a significant sup- tween Zbidi and Chahed, a leading port base. Nidaa Tounes figure broke ranks Karoui, who owns the influential and lent support to the prime min- Nessma TV channel, was arrested ister. Building support. Tunisian independent candidate for the upcoming early presidential elections August 23 on charges of tax evasion “The lone candidate for Nidaa Abdelkrim Zbidi (R) is surrounded by supporters after submitting his candidacy in Tunis, August 7. (AFP) and money laundering, putting his Tounes is Youssef Chahed because presidential bid in jeopardy. he is from Nidaa,” said Radhouane Tunisia’s Independent High Au- Ayara, who heads the party’s politi- programme but especially with his for 2019; economists predicted a recovery, more than 70 economists thority for Elections said Karoui was cal bureau. “Zbidi has nothing to do charisma, which comes from his so- growth rate at 2.1%. formed Econ4Tunisia and pub- still eligible to run, even while im- with Nidaa. He did not even visit ber outlook and high moral regard While instalments of a $2.9 billion lished a 150-page “blue book” de- prisoned, because he has not been the party headquarters.” for state authority,” said Tunis Uni- International Monetary Fund loan tailing needed economic reforms, banned by a court of law from run- Ayara was censured by Nidaa versity Professor Abdelhamid Lar- brought some relief for Tunisia’s including 32 proposals to help in- ning for office. Tounes, whose leaders, including gueche. cash-strapped government, they tegrate the country’s economy re- the late president’s son Hafedh Caid Zbidi is among many candidates, are linked to politically sensitive gionally and globally. The group Essebsi, accused Ayara of attempt- reforms, including spending cuts, will host economy-centred debates Tunisia’s economy, which including Chahed, Free Destourian ing “a coup against the party’s offi- Party President Abir Moussi and that are likely to further frustrate a among the presidential candidates. is struggling to recover cial position.” Amal Party candidate Selma Ellou- population facing high inflation and “We are surprised by the commit- from years of slow Zbidi has won support from an mi, who say they are faithful to the youth unemployment. ment of the experts who came to- growth, will be a major influential coalition of intellectuals political legacy of Bourguiba. Chahed, in an interview with Reu- gether quickly to complete the blue focus during the official and human rights advocates who Bourguiba, Tunisia’s first presi- ters, defended his economic record, book,” said former Finance Minister campaign cycle, due to say it is critical “to avoid splitting dent, spearheaded the country’s saying “all the difficult measures we Hakim Ben Hammouda. “Their ini- begin September 2. the modernising and democratic social and economic development, have taken are for the benefit of the tiative aims at putting the economy forces” in the elections. including establishing free educa- country, such as reducing energy at the centre of the debates.” The arrest led to suspicions that A medical doctor by training, Zbi- tion and health care. subsidies, raising contributions to Some secularist members of so- Chahed was working behind the di, 69, has served twice as defence Tunisia’s economy, which is social funds and imposing some ciety said they are worried the di- scenes to target political opponents. minister, from 2011-13 and again struggling to recover from years of taxes.” vided ranks of the modernist camp Zbidi accused Chahed of acting like since 2017. He submitted his resig- slow growth and high unemploy- “We did so despite the enormous could limit their chances at securing “a gang against his opponents, nation from the position when he ment, will be a major focus during political cost that we know, but the a slot in the possible runoff. which threatens the rule of law and filed papers to run for president. the official campaign cycle. country’s interest required that,” he The Kollona Qadiroon (We Are all transparency of the elections.” Zbidi vowed to ensure Tunisia Tunisia is not expected to meet added. Able) coalition called on candidates Zbidi called on all “national insti- remains a “strong and fair” coun- its economic growth target for 2019 Tunisia’s fiscal deficit is expected belonging to the “centrist social tutions, in particular, the Supreme try and promised to remain his own following slow growth during the to rise to 3% of GDP next year, com- democratic family” to agree on a Judicial Council and the Ministry of man if elected president. first half of the year. The country’s pared to about 3.9% now and 7.4% single candidate to be better placed Justice, to assume all their responsi- “A man of the people, schooled economy grew 1.1% from January- three years ago. Inflation is expect- to face “Islamist and populist candi- bilities to protect the independence in the education system of [Habib] June, compared to 2.7% in the same ed to drop to about 5% by the end of dates.” and impartiality of the judiciary, Bourguiba, a man from the hard- period in 2018, the Tunisian sta- next year from the high of 7.8% last given the importance of its role in working and studious Sahel, Ab- tistics institute said. The govern- year, Chahed said. Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab Weekly the establishment of the democratic delkrim Zbidi is convincing with his ment expected a 3.1% growth rate To help guide Tunisia’s economic correspondent in Tunis. Viewpoint The missing foreign policy debate in Tunisia’s electoral campaign

ideas for finding economic alterna- cooperation as well as economic without positively qualifying what a whole deserves real Tunisian tives, yield virtually nothing. investment and trade is the ability they mean by said “neutrality,” involvement in issues precluding Amine Ben Political and diplomatic conven- of political actors to shift their that is proof of confusion and lack any Maghrebi rapprochement, Messaoud tional wisdom states that diplo- country’s position from being at of clarity in vision. especially the dilemma of the matically successful presidents the periphery to being at the core The neutrality-posturing among Moroccan Sahara. emanate mainly from the Ministry of things, to promote it during ma- candidates reached a point where If Tunisian diplomacy under t does not appear any of the of Foreign Affairs, as proven by jor investment opportunities, to the path drawn by Caid Essebsi the leadership of Mongi Hamdi candidates for the presidential the experiences of former Algerian be on the lookout for alternatives, for regional issues, especially in was able to pull Mali out of the elections in Tunisia has a clear President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, and above all, to foresee geostrate- the Libyan file, has been ignored. quagmire of a bloody civil war by vision for Tunisian diplomacy Kuwaiti Emir Sabah Ahmad al- gic developments. None of the candidates has bringing the conflicting parties to a and for the country’s regional Jaber al-Sabah and the late Tuni- For as much as the situation is as mentioned a willingness to con- peaceful settlement, then it is able, and international role beyond sian President Beji Caid Essebsi. it is among most of the presiden- tinue Caid Essebsi’s initiative for through effort, desire and deter- Igeneralities and the usual rheto- This is because diplomatic tial candidates in their relatively a peaceful settlement in Libya, let mination, to engage in the Libyan ric of “Bourguibian traditions” in experience gives candidates the modest experience and capacities alone put forth the broad lines of a situation positively and to revital- international relations. capacity to analyse and interpret in diplomacy and since the bulk new initiative that could shake up ise Algerian-Moroccan relations. Aside from statements of “neu- international and regional affairs of the president’s powers resides the stagnant and putrid waters in Economic, political and security trality,” which have become part before deciding on playing a role in foreign policymaking, public Tunisia’s eastern neighbour. solutions for Tunisia start from the and parcel of every candidate’s in those affairs on the bases of sov- opinion in Tunisia has the right to When candidates reach this Maghreb and could very well end electoral rhetoric, thrown about ereignty, interests and resources, ask more than a few questions and level of hands-off absenteeism in there, too. The Maghrebi market whenever candidates feel clue- be they natural or soft symbolic raise more than a few eyebrows. addressing regional issues directly is a space that can provide for the less when addressing the regional resources. When a presidential candidate affecting the Tunisian situation, exchange of goods and expertise, issues that any Tunisian president None of the candidates for the speaks of other countries in a then the alarm must be sounded. which could bring in more than must face, canvassing the candi- Carthage Palace has any experi- manner that deviates from the way Not only because the Libyan is- one solution. dates’ international and national ence at the Ministry of Foreign officials talk about other countries sue affects Tunisia’s affairs but We are waiting for candidates to security policies, as well as their Affairs or has worked in major and when his or her ideological or because the Libyan issue is the push Tunisian diplomacy into the Tunisian embassies abroad, which militant impulses get the better of subject of intense regional and minutiae of national security. The could explain the candidates’ nar- him or her and replace the weight international jockeying that would victory of Tunisian international row scope of interest being limited and responsibilities that come end with Tunisians being passive mediation in the Libyan issue after to security and defence for some with the position of president, that subjects if they do not proac- the failure of Ghassan Salame and We are waiting for or solely focused on economic is- becomes cause for concern and tively intervene in time and on the in the Polisario issue after the sues for others. anxiety. ground. defeat of German diplomacy there candidates to push Granted that security issues and When another candidate takes The Libyan situation deserves can augur a new and effective defi- Tunisian diplomacy the efficacy of trade are important shelter behind the pretence of more than a mere resignation let- nition for positive neutrality. aspects of international relations neutrality to forego his or her ter under the guise of “neutrality into the minutiae of but the main engine behind suc- duties towards the Tunisian state between the brothers in Libya” Amine Ben Messaoud is a Tunisian national security. cessful intelligence and security in managing its external affairs, and the Maghrebi landscape as writer and political analyst. 14 September 1, 2019 News & Analysis Syria Erdogan fails to end Idlib fighting despite plea to Putin

Thomas Seibert jihadist-run province but the deal has been shattered by intensifying fighting. Istanbul Putin said Turkey had “legitimate interests” to protect its southern bor- roblems for Turkey in Syria ders and supported the creation of are piling up following a failed a “security zone” on Syrian soil. He attempt by Turkish President added that he and Erdogan agreed on P Recep Tayyip Erdogan to ask “additional joint steps” to “normal- Russia for help to stop a Syrian gov- ise” the situation in Idlib. ernment offensive in the embattled Nicholas Heras, Middle East expert province of Idlib. at the Centre for a New American Se- During a visit to Moscow on Au- curity, a think-tank in Washington, gust 27, Erdogan told Russian Presi- said one result of the visit was an dent Vladimir Putin it was unaccep- acknowledgement by Russia of Tur- table that Syrian forces were “raining key’s interests in Idlib. “Putin and A shattered deal. Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan death on civilians from the air and Erdogan have been shadow-boxing shake hands during a news conference in Zhukovsky outside Moscow, August 27. (Reuters) land under the pretence of battling over the issue of Idlib for over a year terrorism.” now and this reality will not change,” Troops of Syrian President Bashar Heras wrote in response to ques- The Turkish news website Haber- ing the Kurdish People’s Protection ish relations. Assad have been pushing through tions. turk reported in late August that the Units (YPG) militia in the region. The “Once again, Putin pushes Erdog- southern parts of Idlib in an offensive “Moscow does not want Assad to Morek post was being protected by United States hopes that an agree- an towards contact with Damascus,” to return the last rebel-held province wage a bloody campaign deep into Russian troops. If confirmed, such ment with Ankara on a security ar- Has wrote in response to questions. in the country to government con- Idlib and the Russians need Turkey a development would be a humili- rangement along the border can The Turkish leader is calling for trol. Neighbouring Turkey, which has to take ownership over reducing the ation for Turkey, which prides itself prevent a Turkish incursion in the Assad’s removal from power and has taken in 3.6 million Syrian refugees power of Salafist-jihadist groups in on having one of the most powerful region. avoided cooperating with the Syrian and supports some rebel groups in that province. Putin needs Erdogan armed forces in the region. Speaking while returning to Tur- government. Idlib, is concerned that the fighting and this fact gives the Turkish leader “Erdogan failed to convince Putin, key after the Moscow visit, Erdogan While political differences be- could send hundreds of thousands of a lot of options in his dealings with and thereby his Syrian proxies, to said he would not accept any delay- tween Russia and Turkey in Syria additional refugees over the border. Moscow.” change course in Idlib,” said Aykan ing tactics by the Americans in set- grow, their defence cooperation con- The United Nations said more than Putin, however, did not offer con- Erdemir, a senior fellow at the Foun- ting up the zone. tinues to flourish. In July, Turkey be- 500,000 people have been uprooted crete measures to address Turkey’s dation for Defense of Democracies, a The YPG, seen as a terrorist group gan taking delivery of Russian S-400 since the Syrian Army began its of- problems or to rein in Assad. One day Washington think-tank. “Barring the by Turkey, withdrew from the Tal missile defence systems, a move that fensive in April, most of them es- after the meeting in Moscow, the Syr- Kremlin’s intervention, Erdogan will Abyad and Ras al-Ain border posi- strained ties with the United States. caping deeper into the rebel bastion ian Observatory for Human Rights either have to evacuate some of the tions the week of August 26 to prove As the two leaders were meeting in and towards the Turkish border. The said warplanes fired at areas sur- observation posts in Idlib or flex mili- it was serious about ongoing talks, Moscow, deliveries of the second White Helmets, a Syrian relief group, rounding a Turkish observation post tary muscle with the hopes of deter- the Kurdish-led authority in north- battery of the S-400 system began in said the number of displaced people in Sheir Maghar in Idlib. ring Assad,” Erdemir said via e-mail. ern and eastern Syria said. Turkey. had topped 1 million. Reports from Syria said govern- Turkey’s military mission in Idlib Russia wants the United States Russia and Turkey are also dis- Hundreds of Syrians gathered at ment troops and pro-Iranian fighters was further thrown into doubt by to withdraw from Syria and is con- cussing the possibility of deliveries a closed border crossing to Turkey. gathered for a push further north. reports that four army generals re- cerned that any arrangement with of the Russian-made Sukhoi Su-57 Some reports said they protested Russia said Syrian troops would start signed from Turkey’s armed forces Turkey for a “safe zone” could ce- stealth fighter jet and Su-35 aircraft Turkey’s failure to protect them from a unilateral ceasefire in Idlib August after being posted to units serving in ment the presence of US troops in to Turkey. the advance of Syrian troops and that 31 but previous attempts to call a Syria. the country. The issue is likely to increase con- Turkish border guards fired into the truce failed to stop the fighting. Observers said Erdogan is under That is why Putin signalled to Er- cerns in the West about Turkey’s air to stop them. There was no com- Another of Turkey’s 12 military pressure from Putin regarding the dogan during the Moscow talks that widening political distance to its ment from Turkish authorities. posts in Idlib, near the village of planned creation of a “safe zone” in Turkey should clear its “safe zone” traditional NATO allies. The United An agreement hammered out by Morek in southern Idlib, has been north-eastern Syria. Ankara has been plans with the Syrian government, States has suspended Turkey’s coop- Erdogan and Putin last year was sup- surrounded by Syrian troops since in talks with Washington about the Russia’s ally, said Kerim Has, a Mos- eration in the F-35 fighter programme posed to stabilise the situation in the mid-August. issue, as the United States is support- cow-based expert on Russian-Turk- because of Ankara’s S-400 decision. Intricate web of players complicates conflict in Idlib

Simon Speakman Cordall Its patience apparently exhausted, would have been spent attacking the Damascus, supported by Russia, rebels’ initial lines of defence, so it’s launched an assault on Idlib in April, likely that things will speed up. Tunis risking a confrontation with Tur- “There is also the question of what key, which maintains concerns over might happen when the jihadists are he Syrian-led and Russia- a fresh surge in refugees towards its forced back to the Turkish border. Are backed campaign to take borders. they going to fight them to the death, Idlib, the final rebel-held To defuse tensions, Turkish Presi- allow them to escape through Turkey T province in Syria, continued dent Recep Tayyip Erdogan travelled and what then? Where can they go?” against a background of high-level to Moscow in late August to discuss Retaking Idlib, though critical, diplomacy and international horse increased cooperation between Turk- would not put Assad a great deal clos- trading. ish and Russian defence industries. er to being in position to impose his However, while Idlib may be the Erdogan felt confident enough to also peace on the country. Turkey, either last rebel stronghold in Syria, secur- talk of his concerns about the Syrian directly or through its militias, con- ing it moves Syrian President Bashar government “raining death on civil- trols approximately 3,460 sq.km of Assad closer in towards his stated ians from the air and land under the northern Syria and the US-led coali- aim of recapturing “every inch” of pretence of battling terrorism.” tion, in partnership with the Kurdish- the country. There is little doubt the humanitar- led Syrian Democratic Forces, holds Idlib has been held by a variety ian costs of the assault on Idlib would Going up in smoke. Men ride a motorcycle past a plume of smoke roughly all territory east of the Eu- of groups since it fell to rebel forces be catastrophic. Speaking for the esti- from a blaze at the scene of a government bombardment in Idlib phrates. in 2011, including rebel and jihadist- mated 3 million civilians in the prov- province, August 25. (AFP) “Both Turkey’s and the US’s oc- orientated militias. Hayat Tahrir al- ince in early August, Senior Humani- cupation are illegal,” Balanche said. Sham (HTS) is pre-eminent among tarian Adviser to the UN Syria Envoy “They may be able to hold them for a the rebel fighters and their families Najat Rochdi warned the resump- attack and the breadth of Assad’s cities, Damascus and Aleppo, while few years but then what are they go- who have retreated to the province. tion of fighting after a brief ceasefire ambitions. “Retaking Idlib province also running through Homs and ing to do? A full-scale military invasion was threatened “the lives of millions of would be an extremely demanding Hama. So securing ‘useful Syria’ re- “The Americans may talk about averted in September 2018 through civilians.” task for the regime even with the quires securing this thoroughfare.” establishing a Kurdish statelet there the agreement between Russia, Syria On August 22, the Syrian govern- support of Russian airpower,” said However, if Damascus’s intention but that would cost billions of dollars and Turkey, which supports several ment announced the creation of Jeffrey Martini, a senior Middle East in the longer term is to retake all of and involve the deployment of tens rebel groups in Syria, to establish a a “humanitarian corridor” out of researcher at the RAND Corporation. the province, the fallout could be of thousands of troops to stabilise the de-escalation zone similar to others southern Idlib and northern Hama “However, the regime likely has considerable. area. Somehow, I can’t see this ad- in the country. province. The initiative was muted, more limited objectives in the short “This campaign began in April. ministration doing that. While the agreement led to a re- however. In addition to widespread term. Damascus would like to se- So far, the Syrian army has retaken “Assad and [Russian President duction in hostilities, HTS used the depopulation of the areas specified is cure the main highway that bisects about 500-600 sq.km of the prov- Vladimir] Putin know this,” Balanche lull in the fighting to attack govern- the reluctance of residents to accept the province. Most of the fighting is ince, around 5% of the territory,” said said, “and, for now, they’re more ment forces and consolidate its hold reassurances from the government, focused on a strategic town (Khan Fabrice Balanche, an associate pro- than happy to wait.” on Idlib, despite 12 heavily fortified whose rule an estimated half of them Sheikhoun) that sits on this artery,” fessor at the University of Lyon 2 and Turkish observation posts in and fled to Idlib to escape. he said. “The importance of this road adjunct fellow at the Washington In- Simon Speakman Cordall is a around the province. Much depends on the scale of the is that it connects Syria’s two largest stitute. “Of course, a lot of that time freelance writer. September 1, 2019 15 Debate Turkey

Turkey’s military interventions in Iraq hardly achieve anything

proved hugely expensive in terms of soldiers lost and financial costs. When Operation Claw was an- Stephen Starr nounced in May, pro-government media claimed its purpose was to eradicate “PKK dominance” in urkey has for decades northern Iraq. That’s a very lofty carried out air strikes goal considering the rugged nature and ground assaults on of the mountainous terrain and the rear-facing Kurdistan fact that it transitions the borders of Workers’ Party camps in Iraq and Iran. the mountainous Qandil Often conducted with much jin- Tregion of northern Iraq. It is in now goistic chest-beating and bestowed in the midst of yet another, Opera- names such as Operation Steel or Op- tion Claw. eration Hammer, the Turkish mili- The pro-Turkish-government Daily tary mounted the first large-scale op- Sabah newspaper reported that the erations involving tens of thousands intervention is to remove Kurdistan of troops marching into northern Workers’ Party (PKK) elements from Iraq in 1992 and 1995. The outcome the Hakurk region that “facilitates in those years? The withdrawal of terrorist crossings between Qandil Turkish forces again from northern and Iraq’s Salahuddin province that Iraq, the PKK’s continued presence borders Syria.” there and the loss of many military Recognised as a terrorist and civilian lives. organisation by Ankara, the In February 2008, Turkey European Union and the sent thousands more into United States, the PKK the Hakurk region over Show of strength. Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar (R) speaks with a Turkish officer at the Ankara today (AP) has attacked Turkish the course of a week Turkey-Iraq border near Hakkari, last June. finds itself exactly military outposts, with the stated aim of planted road- where it was 30 years destroying the PKK’s eignty Turkey walks all over, despite of Ottoman victories against foreign The PKK sees all of this and, on side bombs and ago, stuck in a messy “organisational substantial evidence of the incur- enemies every year during Ramadan. occasion, has provoked Turkey to abducted soldiers conflict that brings infrastructure in the sions not achieving much. Second, the Turkish government attack northern Iraq, as it did in for almost 40 neither security to region.” It lost 24 Why, if after every operation the knows it has little to lose by allowing October 2013. Ankara played exactly years. The conflict Turkish citizens nor soldiers, three village Turkish military proclaims it to be an its generals to get together to blast into its hands. has cost the lives prosperity to Kurdish guards and an AH-1 unequivocal success, that all its goals near-empty Iraqi mountainsides Are there any alternatives Turkey of more than 4,550 civilians. Cobra helicopter. What were met, does it a year or two later with thousands of kilograms of ord- could pursue? people in the past four did it achieve? Strategic find itself repeating the same thing? nance, especially when the images of It could release PKK leader Abdul- years, 323 of whom died stalemate. The people of Turkey are not stupid. such military might project the no- lah Ocalan from prison and the PKK, in northern Iraq, the Interna- In late May it mounted its lat- They know a successful military tion of a strong, proud and unflinch- not a victim by any means, could tional Crisis Group said. est excursion into the mountains, operation when they see one. Or do ing country. implement an arms decommission- In light of the death of three which, in the words of Turkey’s they? Perhaps most important are the ing process overseen by a competent, Turkish soldiers in Iraq in August Ministry of National Defence, so far There are several likely explana- state’s efforts to press upon the independent authority. However, and the many more — including an has “revealed new information on tions. citizens of Turkey that sometimes the deep-rooted animosity between assassinated Turkish diplomat — in terrorist activity.” For a country whose historical they must make sacrifices for the the two sides and a general disinter- recent months, serious questions Look at the bigger picture: Ankara legacy is shrouded by the loss of nation. Many of the first items on est in peace mean that’s unlikely to must be asked about why Ankara today finds itself exactly where it huge amounts of territory during the nightly newscasts are footage of happen. continues to pursue this avenue was 30 years ago, stuck in a messy final decades of the Ottoman Empire, grieving families burying sons who In all likelihood, the sound of ex- when the evidence so obviously conflict that brings neither security Turks are more than a little insecure died fighting the PKK in the same ploding bombs will continue filling points to it offering little tangible to Turkish citizens nor prosperity to when it comes to projecting power isolated mountainside of Qandil. the empty mountains of northern return. Kurdish civilians who remain sym- on the world. Part of that is because No one wants to see such images or, Iraq for years to come. While popular among Turkish na- pathetic to PKK ideals. Turks learn from a young age about indeed, experience the loss of loved tionalists and the far right to whom These interventions cause an array the might and power of the Ottoman ones first-hand but no Turk would Stephen Starr is the author of Turkish President Recep Tayyip of diplomatic problems between era, not all of it factual. Big-budget dare question the military’s purpose “Revolt in Syria: Eye-Witness to the Erdogan is heavily dependent for Ankara and governments in Baghdad television shows broadcast the his- of actions; to do so would approach Uprising” and has lived in Syria and political support, northern Iraq has and Erbil, whose territorial sover- torical fantasy — and some truths — treason. Turkey since 2007. Erdogan’s policies fuel discontent among Turkey’s armed forces

Trouble is A new military service law has brewing. the prospect of professionalism Turkish and the reduction of service time Yavuz Baydar President of conscripted soldiers from 12 Recep Tayyip to 6 months would be a welcome Erdogan (2nd L), move. However, at the same uring the late sum- accompanied time, the radical reduction of mer of 2011, I was part by Defence generals and admirals raises the of a small group of Minister Hulusi suspicion that Erdogan’s resolve journalists participat- Akar (L), on pure loyalty has found a free ing in an extended reviews a guard ground. interview broadcast of honour at the Erdogan decided not to Dlive in Ankara with Recep Tayyip Turkish Military promote some three-star staff Erdogan, then Turkey’s prime Academy in generals to four stars and it was minister. Ankara, interpreted as a typical carrot-or- During a break, I approached January 24. stick approach. As a result, dis- Erdogan to pose a question I knew (Reuters) content is growing and is likely to he would leave unanswered. “You continue to increase. have always been of the view that “AKP (Turkey’s ruling Justice the top brass was undermining and Development Party) by its your elected government,” I said. religion-based steps has turned “Now, after nine years in power, all the state institutions into a how much of that resistance, you mirror of its own,” wrote retired think, is left within the army?” General Ahmet Yavuz for the sec- With a hoarse voice, careful ularist daily Cumhuriyet. “Merit that nobody else was listening, he has been replaced by loyalty. The answered: “About more than 50% state has now been blocked by is still there…” Hulusi Akar said those dismissed The reshuffle in the army in One is, as expressed in articles the (presidential) administrative Now, nearly nine years later, from the army since the attempted August, unique and bold in many and statements by retired senior system… New decisions on mini- everybody knows that Presi- coup number 17,500, more than ways, left little doubt as to how far generals such as Ahmet Yavuz, mising the number of soldiers, it dent Erdogan has shown a solid 2,000 of whom were mid- and Erdogan has advanced in his ob- that the tradition of respecting is now trying to create the armed determination of subordinating high-ranking officers. Some are jective. He is downsizing the army rank and merit is gone, replaced by forces in his own image… There each and every state institution in serving time in jail. and, while continuing to purge, sheer loyalty to the presidency. will be no winners. Nobody a regime model based on ultra- Witnessed and reported daily leaves the impression that those The second is as sensitive as the should rejoice!” centralism. were continuous group arrests dismissed are not necessarily first: Officers are unhappy that If I asked the same question It is known by now, too, that the of officers and soldiers for three linked with the Gulen movement their views on Syria, especially on today, I wonder what Erdogan’s botched coup in 2016 and the state years, apparently to maintain but have been marked as oppo- the Turkish presence in Idlib, are response would be: 10%? More? of emergency that followed was great fear and suspicion within the nents in general to his decisions fully disrespected or ignored by One point is clear: It will be truly a “God’s gift,” as Erdogan ex- army for another coup attempt. and partisan policies. Erdogan’s team. This is a delicate Akar, the former top general now pressed it, to carry out a massive “The atmosphere has changed The recent resignations of stand if one remembers that in the defence minister, who is tasked purge within the army. within the TSK (Turkish Armed five generals were perhaps not background to the botched coup in with the restructuring — and The partial military uprising on Forces) since the failed coup,” a unexpected. They were the result 2016 there lied a deep, decisive rift purging — of the army. His role July 15, 2016, in which a Gulenist Western diplomat familiar with of growing discontent among the among top staff generals on Syria and choices and whether he dare segment of officers had a signifi- the Turkish military told Ahval officers. When asking for their and Kurdish policies. stand up to Erdogan may soon cant role, created a perfect pretext News. “Officers can’t discuss topics early retirement, none chose to be Some argue that the restruc- come to be decisive. to trim and tame the structure, openly and relative trust within blunt but it is clear there are wider turing of the Turkish Army was which, from time to time, has kept the TSK has gone away. Generals, gaps between the top brass and long overdue, that the need for an Yavuz Baydar is a Turkish Erdogan sleepless at nights. in particular, feel they are just the Erdogan on two major contentious efficient combat force was very journalist and regular columnist Turkish Minister of Defence prey of the political class.” issues. strong. for The Arab Weekly. 16 September 1, 2019 News & Analysis East West Iran threatens Washington think-tank, move likely to further isolate regime

Emily Przyborowski claimed that “taking any actions by the judicial and security appa- ratuses against the FDD and their Washington Iranian and non-Iranian accom- plices will be considered legitimate ehran’s blacklisting of as their actions are against Iran’s and thinly veiled threats national security and the inter- against the Foundation for ests of Iranian people and gov- T Defense of Democracies ernment,” said Iran’s Mehr News has pushed other US think-tanks Agency. to reconsider their relationship Iran premised its threats against with Iran. FDD and Dubowitz on a law passed Think-tanks have a unique place by the Iranian parliament in 2017 in influencing legislation in Wash- titled “Countering America’s Hu- ington and have long offered guid- man Rights Violations and Terror- ance on US-Iran relations. ist Actions.” It allows Iran to act The Foundation for Defense of in defence of “national security Democracies (FDD) has been out- interests.” Iran experts say such spoken in its opposition to the Ira- reprisals could involve its security nian regime and is believed to have and intelligence networks abroad, heavily influenced US President including linked terrorist organisa- Donald Trump’s decision to pull tions. out of the Joint Comprehensive It said the FDD and “particularly Plan of Action (JCPOA). its CEO Mark Dubowitz — have been and are effectively involved in a conscious and intentional The Iranian Foreign manner in designing, imposing Ministry said “taking any and intensifying the impacts of actions by the judicial and economic terrorism against Iran.” security apparatuses” In a statement, FDD said the In the crosshairs. A 2018 file picture shows FDD’s CEO Mark Dubowitz (R) presenting former United against the Foundation of think-tank “conducts independ- Nations ambassador Nikki Haley with the Jeane J. Kirkpatrick Statesmanship Award. (FDD) Defense of Democracies and ent research and analysis on na- its “Iranian and non-Iranian tional security issues. The Islamic accomplices will be Republic prohibits such freedoms woman Morgan Ortagus said: “The by its “security apparatuses it is could affect US policy on Iran. considered legitimate.” at home and would like to do so US takes the regime’s threats seri- completely unacceptable.” Suzanne Maloney, the deputy abroad as well. ously. We intend to hold Iran re- Ilan Goldenberg, the Middle East director of Foreign Policy pro- In 2015, FDD along with the “FDD considers its inclusion on sponsible for directly or indirectly security director at the Centre for a gramme at the Brookings Institute, American Israel Public Affairs any list put out by the regime as a compromising the safety of any New American Security, tweeted” commented, also on Twitter: “Giv- Committee spent an estimated $40 badge of honour and looks forward American.” Ortagus referred to “Don’t always agree with @FDD en these risks & today’s threats million in anti-JCPOA advertising to the day when Americans and Iran as an “outlaw regime.” and @mdubowitz but threats by aimed at a US NGO & its staff, all campaigns targeting members of others can visit a free and demo- Iran’s threat against the FDD Iran’s government against a Wash- academic & research organisations the US Congress and their constitu- cratic Iran.” caused the Washington think-tank ington think-tank are completely should seriously reassess their en- ents. At the same time, think-tanks Dubowitz is considered an ex- community to defend the FDD. unacceptable.” gagement w/Iranian govt institu- such as the Atlantic Council led pert on Iranian policy and heads FDD is considered a right-of-centre Mark Fitzpatrick, former execu- tions.” initiatives on JCPOA and related FDD’s project on Iran, sanctions “hawkish” think-tank but even tive director of the International With Tehran waiting for a less policies and advocated for them to and nonproliferation. Jennifer Ru- left-leaning organisations and in- Institute for Security Studies, hostile US president after the 2020 policymakers and voters. bin, a blogger for the Washington dividuals have condemned the tweeted” “Hey, #Iran: as much elections, the loss of relations with On August 25, the Iranian gov- Post, said Dubowitz is “the archi- threat from Iran. as I disagree with @FDD, your the think-tank community could ernment “blacklisted” FDD and its tect of many of the sanctions that Colin Kahl, a former deputy as- unadulterated call for attacking mean greater chances for US sanc- chief executive, Mark Dubowitz. we have against Iran right now, sistant to US President Barack them (‘actions by security appa- tions and restrictive policies con- The Iranian Foreign Ministry state- who advised Congress on how to Obama, posted on Twitter: “I of- ratuses’) makes me rise in solidar- tinuing no matter who wins the ment claimed FDD has been per- draft that legislation and has also ten disagree with @FDD and @ i t y.” election. forming economic terrorism in the advised Treasury and the White mdubowtiz” on Iran policy and After Iran’s threat to FDD, it is form of “spreading of lies, lobby- House on his opinions about sanc- strategy but if this reporting is cor- likely that Washington think-tanks Emily Przyborowski is an ism and propaganda against Iran.” tions.” rect and Iran is threatening any US will re-evaluate their relationship Arab Weekly correspondent in The Iranian Foreign Ministry US State Department spokes- think-tank or person with action with the Iranian government, which Washington.

Viewpoint Trump accelerates demise of multilateralism in Middle East

wo months before his a Shia militia, near Iraq’s al-Qaim Hassan Rohani. “They’re afraid Mossad officer and author of “Pe- death in May 2018, Paul border crossing with Syria. The Trump might fall in love with riphery: Israel’s Search for Middle von Maltzahn, former same day, two Israeli unmanned him as he did with Kim Jong-un East Allies.” Gareth Smyth German ambassador to aerial vehicles crashed in Beirut’s [leader of North Korea, whom “This threat from the north is Egypt, Iran and Iraq, southern suburbs, prompting Hez- Trump has met with three times],” Israel’s major strategic preoccupa- warned of the dangers bollah Secretary-General Hassan an Arab security analyst noted. tion. The war of attrition against Tof the Trump administration. “The Nasrallah and Israeli Prime Minister In a febrile atmosphere with nor- Iran’s build-up has so far been problem is that American policy Binyamin Netanyahu to exchange mal diplomatic channels clogged, successful, but we are far from fin- is destroying the multilateral bellicose rhetoric and threats. “messaging” is hit-and-miss, the ished. As long as Iran is involved, I approach,” he said. “It’s sad but Lebanese Prime Minister Saad analyst said: “With the drones, the see no political solution,” he said. multilateralism is quite new and is Hariri appealed for assistance not Israelis may be sending a message Alpher said both Russia and Is- in danger. Multilateralism is com- from the international community to Iran that they have changed rael have sought to make the most plicated and takes a long time but or Washington but from Moscow. their mind about whatever red of regional instability since the it can create more stability.” While multilateralism’s demise lines — for example, hitting infra- Iraq invasion and the “Arab spring” Trump’s disdain for international has been accelerated by Trump, it structure but not personnel — that — with Moscow expanding its conventions and his unpredictabil- has roots in the “creative chaos” supposedly apply to Iran’s deploy- military role and gaining a Mediter- ity masked a lack of foresight, von espoused by Condoleezza Rice, ment in Syria and Iraq. ranean foothold with a naval base Maltzahn said. “Russia is outwit- US national security adviser dur- “The strong reaction from Nas- at Syria’s Tartus. ting the US in the Middle East ing the 2003 Iraq invasion and rallah may be telling the Israelis “Putin’s capacity to mediate is because it has a strategy, which later secretary of state. However, they are not abiding by any new limited and he knows it,” Alpher America lacks,” he said. “The Rus- Trump’s “America First” and dis- Israeli red lines and will open up said, “but he’s our neighbour now, sians have been ruthless in pursu- dain for international frameworks the Lebanese front [against Israel] like Iran, but neutral. [Netanyahu] ing their objectives but they have — in 2017 he abandoned the Paris and it all may tie in to Iranian mes- has cultivated him skilfully but more of a long-term view.” Agreement on climate change and sages to France and the US that if that, too, has limits.” The G7 summit in France con- last year the 2015 Iran nuclear deal they don’t come to their senses Alpher conceded that Netanyahu cluded with an agreed declaration — have tempted other leaders to [easing sanctions against Iran] they and “most Israelis” like Trump and of sorts but those were two days seek Trump’s direct largesse. will rock things around.” that many expect his re-election While during which the world’s leaders Netanyahu has usually been first This is infertile ground for fresh next year. multilateralism’s jockeyed for position. French Presi- in the queue. West Bank settle- multilateral frameworks — even Alpher’s own view is different: dent Emmanuel Macron seized ments have continued apace with limited ones like the 1996-2000 “Ultimately, Trump is disastrous demise has been an initiative by inviting Iranian Trump recognising Jerusalem as agreement governing Israeli- for us, for two reasons. First, he accelerated by Trump, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Israel’s capital and pushing son-in- Hezbollah clashes in occupied is helping us become a binational Zarif, whose country has been law Jared Kushner as the architect southern Lebanon under which apartheid state [by incorporating it has roots in the under new US sanctions since July. of a “peace plan” that simply Israel did not bomb civilians and the West Bank]. Second, when “creative chaos” After speculation Zarif would meet ignores the Palestinians’ claim to Hezbollah did not fire rockets into push comes to shove with the Ira- espoused by with senior US officials, Iran’s for- statehood. Israel. And, as Hariri recognised, nians, the Russians or anyone else, eign minister saw only his French However, Trump’s unpredict- it looks like Moscow is seen as the we cannot really depend on him.” Condoleezza Rice, US counterpart before leaving for ability has dangers even for Israel, “honest broker” or at least as a reli- national security Beijing and Tokyo. where senior officials panicked able mediator. Gareth Smyth is a regular con- The day Zarif arrived in France, over rumours that Zarif was at Israel’s overriding concern is Iran tributor to The Arab Weekly. He adviser during the August 25, an air strike blamed on the G7 to facilitate talks between and its “proxies, first and foremost has reported from the Middle East 2003 Iraq invasion. Israel hit a convoy of Brigade 45, Trump and Iranian President Syria,” said Yossi Alpher, former since 1992. September 1, 2019 17 News & Analysis The Maghreb and the West Washington’s stance on Libya is ‘evolving’ but new questions arise about GNA’s ties to Iran

Michel Cousins recognised Presidential Council and political dialogue, it is not clear what its Government of National Accord the United States will do to move this (GNA) and shifting towards Haftar. along. “We still don’t really know Tunis That view was reinforced when, what’s Washington’s aim in Libya,” on three occasions, the United States an EU diplomat said in late August. he Libyan National Army blocked British-worded statements It is also far from clear if there can made another attempt to re- in the UN Security Council seen as be dialogue, despite the internation- take the strategically impor- critical of the LNA. Officially, howev- al community and the UN Support T tant town of Gharyan, south er, the US State Department contin- Mission in Libya pushing for it and of Tripoli, but reportedly made no ued to back the Presidential Council the stalemate on the ground. progress, deepening the sense of and calls for a ceasefire. While the GNA is generally sup- stalemate in the fight for control of That led to the conclusion that portive, there is little sign that it will the Libyan capital. Washington was not particularly fo- be able to sell a ceasefire and dia- That appeared to strengthen the cused on Libya, apart from concerns logue to some of the militias fighting hand of those inside and outside about terrorism and wanting the for it. They are ideologically com- Libya pushing for a return to UN-led country to produce as much oil as mitted to the battle against Haftar political dialogue, saying that a mili- possible to ensure low oil prices, and and the LNA and, for them, it is a tary solution is not going to work. that its Libya policy was not united fight to the end. They are not going The view was restated at the G7 with the White House, the State De- to compromise. summit in France, which called for partment, the US Defence Depart- Exploring options. French President Emmanuel Macron (R) There is also a view that Haftar an international conference on Libya ment and the CIA having different speaks with Libya’s UN-recognised Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj was in a stronger bargaining position bringing together the stakeholders, views. in Tunis, July 27. (AFP) before he launched the Tripoli offen- regional players involved and prob- The G7 statement, taken with sive and that he would need a clear ably some of Libya’s other neigh- other events, suggested an evolving victory to strengthen his position in bours. Washington policy on Libya. Those In a video message following his Norland condemned air strikes any talks. However, as another dip- The G7 statement, drawn up by other events include, after a gap of Senate confirmation, Norland said on Libyan civilian airports and, al- lomat pointed out, the danger is that the French hosts, was non-binding a year-and-a-half, the appointment the United States would actively though he stated that he was not a victory, such as retaking Gharyan, but was seen as representing the of a US ambassador to Libya. Richard take part in UN-led efforts to find a naming sides, those were carried out could result in the LNA thinking it views of all who attended, includ- Norland took up his post August 14. political solution “through negotia- by the LNA. does not need to compromise, that ing, significantly, US President Don- As with many other ambassadors to tion and compromise” to the Libyan “Things are going on in Washing- the capture of Tripoli and final vic- ald Trump. Libya, he is based in Tunis. crisis. ton,” said a Libya analyst, noting that tory were in its immediate grasp. Since the start of the Libyan Na- There is also a new head of the US Four days before the meeting with both Norland and Townsend “un- Questions are being asked about tional Army (LNA) offensive to take Africa Command (Africom), which, Townsend and Sarraj, Norland had derstand what the administration the GNA’s stand towards Iran. Dur- Tripoli five months ago, there has through its air strikes in 2016, played talks in Tunis with Sarraj’s Foreign wants” in Libya. ing his Japan visit, Siala apparently been considerable confusion as to a major role in helping defeat Islamic Minister Mohamed Siala on diplo- The new appointments, he said, had very cordial talks with Iranian where Washington stands regarding State (ISIS) fighters who had been matic efforts to end the conflict. “show that changes are taking place.” Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Libya. holding Sirte. US Army General Ste- Siala was on his way to Japan for a However, he warned: “Be careful Zarif. In April, reports that an Ira- Trump’s phone call to LNA Field- phen Townsend took up the post at Japanese-pan African summit. about what people say and what nian ship unloaded military equip- Marshal Khalifa Haftar on April 15, the end of July. Haftar’s supporters drew comfort they do,” suggesting that Washing- ment in Misrata fuelled speculation during which they discussed coun- The same day the G7 summit end- from the Trump phone call and the ton’s Libya policy was still evolving. about the GNA’s relationship with terterrorism moves, and the White ed, Townsend and Norland were in US blocks on UN statements criti- The prime US concern, he said, Tehran. House’s subsequent statement that Tunis for talks with the head of the cal of the LNA, seeing them as signs remained the threat from ISIS and Washington, as well as the Saudis Trump recognised Haftar’s “sig- Presidential Council, Fayez al-Sarraj, of a change in US policy. However, the fear that it could be making a and the Emiratis, would be far from nificant role in fighting terrorism” on resolving the Libyan crisis. Norland’s and Townsend’s com- reappearance in Libya as a result sanguine if the GNA, heavily backed and that the two had discussed “a “We emphasised to Prime Minister ments indicate Washington is firmly of fighters moving from Syria. The by Turkey and Qatar, were to extend shared vision” for Libya’s transition Sarraj the importance of supporting throwing its weight behind a politi- worry was that the GNA was not suf- its foreign alliances to include Iran. to democracy, gave the impression a diplomatic solution to put an end cal rather than military outcome and ficiently motivated about it, unlike that the White House was dropping to the current conflict,” Townsend committed to maintaining ties with the rival authorities in eastern Libya. Michel Cousins is a contributor to its support for the internationally said. the Sarraj government. Despite Norland’s insistence on The Arab Weekly on Libyan issues. Viewpoint Algeria caught between a rock and hard place

languages of Algeria. He refuses to With the price of oil at $60 a barrel, to an exit of British companies, Japa- tion that threatens future stability. have 86-year-old Lakhdar Bourega, Algeria’s income from hydrocarbons nese firms seized their chance. When France has more to gain from who fought bravely in the war of is forecast to be approximately $36 bold economic reforms were enacted democracy in Algeria and allowing, Francis Ghilès independence and who accused billion. This is enough to keep the under the leadership of Algerian for example, genuine private sector the senior high command of having economy running, all the more as President Chadli Bendjedid and groups such as Cevital, which already already chosen the future president, an extra $15 billion could be drawn Prime Minister Mouloud Hamrouche operates outside Algeria, to build rom the sublime to the released from prison. down from reserves. However, these in 1989-91, French President Francois integrated industrial sectors than it ridiculous best describes As Gaid Salah hardens his tone, have more than halved over the Mitterrand did nothing to help, quite appears to realise. What is true of how millions of Algerians the army high command appears in- past four years to $75 billion. What the reverse. The European Union Algeria is true of its neighbours, even view their de facto leader, creasingly isolated. Many workers in happens if oil prices fall is anybody’s wanted to help but was equally told allowing for the fact Morocco ap- General Ahmed Gaid companies once owned or co-owned guess. to mind its own business. pears better managed economically Salah, chief-of-staff of the by infamous Bouteflika “cronies” are France, Russia and the United Algeria has frequently destroyed than its nearby peers. FAlgerian People’s National Army, not being paid. States play key roles in Algeria’s in- the careers of some of its most Will French President Emmanuel the country’s most stable institution This is the case of Fertisal, which ternational economic relations. The brilliant industrial managers and Macron put into practice the call he since independence in 1962. produces fertilisers and had its bank latter, present through oil companies engineers because its leadership made during the annual meeting of Gaid Salah, in late August, accused accounts frozen. Other companies in that explore in Algeria, need not too often obliged the French rather French ambassadors — “Do not think millions of Algerians, who for six which Turkish and Chinese investors worry. Whoever runs the country than confront them and defend along traditional lines but invest your long months have been insisting on have stakes are being investigated for knows they cannot enact legislation Algeria’s interests. The corruption efforts into the civil societies of your the need for a transparent transition suspected corruption but, surpris- that upsets those operators. Russia’s and the utter contempt Bouteflika respective countries”? to allow for democratic presidential ingly, French interests are unharmed. interest is focused on selling weap- and his cronies showed towards their He could do worse than to look at elections, of “spreading dark ideas” Gaid Salah’s reputation of being ons, some of which are useless. compatriots over two decades made how a reunified Germany promoted — democracy — and working in “the anti-French is totally at variance with France exerts a major influence in matters worse. a sphere of co-prosperity with former interests of the Bouteflika gang and reality. other important sectors but, since in- French politicians are prone to see communist countries in Eastern their masters.” Beyond the industrial sector, dependence in 1962, has never been North Africa through a neocolonial Europe a generation ago. He would Gaid Salah had proof of such talks between the giant national oil keen on seeing Algeria acquire a solid prism. They want to keep control be initiating a strategic rethink of activities, he said, which “would be monopoly Sonatrach and companies industrial base. When Germany built of the natives, so to speak, not to French diplomacy and offer proof he made public when the time is right.” such as ExxonMobil and Chevron a tractor factory in Constantine in the promote integrated industrial sectors was the genuine European he claims He seems to be lusting for a fight. have been on ice for months. Interim 1970s, which included foundries and across the region. to be, not a minor version of Charles Coming from a man who served Director of Sonatrach Rachid Hachi- engine-building capacity, the French Yet, with millions of North Afri- de Gaulle. former President Abdelaziz Boutef- chi has neither the capacity nor the were not happy. The Germans were cans living and working in Europe A rehash of the policies of yester- lika as chief-of-staff for 15 years, will to take on long-term commit- told to mind their own business — and with the growing stake of year will achieve nothing in the me- during which time he failed to ments. Algeria was a French preserve. Chinese and Indian companies in the dium term to encourage modern and notice, let alone denounce, the wave This wait-and-see atmosphere The oil and gas sector was built region, the European Union would accountable forms of government in of corruption that engulfed Alge- is tinged with fear because no one up after 1962 with the technical as- be well-advised to take another look Algeria and the region. Democracy — ria, the tens of billions of dollars of knows which of those arrested before sistance of US and British companies at the cost of “No-Maghreb,” an issue built as each country sees fit — will be kickbacks, money laundering and the summer will be brought to court, but also of Italy’s Eni. When British discussed in a report of the Peterson North Africa’s and Europe’s best bet overcharging of foreign contracts whether the charges were trumped industrial weakness in the 1970s led Institute for International Economics if greater stability is to be brought to that Bouteflika’s cronies allowed up and whether the due process of in 2008. a region in which Saudi Arabia, other themselves, this sounds pathetic. law is being respected, which has Not only would Maghreb countries Gulf countries, Russia and China are Since not a few of his peers in the often not been the case. — gain at least 2% of GDP growth if bar- only too happy to meddle. army high command also lined To add insult to injury, the army Democracy built as riers to trade and investment were As all have learned from the fate their pockets and their foreign bank high command has not the faintest each country sees fit lowered between Algeria, Morocco of Libya, the more the merrier, the accounts, such accusations look idea how a modern economy func- — will be North and Tunisia, southern European greater the mess, the less the stabil- downright ridiculous. tions. Its members seem impervi- countries could also benefit. Europe ity of the Western Mediterranean Gaid Salah condemned Algerian ous to the fact that trust between Africa’s and Europe’s and the United States remain focused region. demonstrators who wave the Berber Algerian and international compa- best bet if greater on the threat of radical Islam but flag as being “bandits” despite the nies, often in short supply in recent not on the lack of accountability of Francis Ghilès is an associate fellow fact that, since 2002, Amazigh (or years, is eroding. It will not be easy stability is to be North African leaders, lack of jobs for at the Barcelona Centre for Interna- Berber) is one of the two official to rebuild. brought to the region. young people and rampant corrup- tional Affairs. 18 September 1, 2019 Economy

After Black Wednesday, Briefs US gives Tunisia which Arab economies $335 million in aid over five years are most at risk? The United States has agreed to give Tunisia financial aid worth $335 million over five years to support its Ahmed Fouad searcher at the Sadat Academy for democratic transition, the Tunisian Management Sciences, said oil-ex- Development and International ports-dependent countries are likely Cooperation Ministry said. Cairo to be hit hard by the crisis. The aid will be financed by the US “The recession might be driven Agency for International Develop- fter Western speculators by a trade war between the United ment. and investors, fearing a States and China, the two largest “Aid will fund projects that global economic crisis, sold importers of oil,” Mostafa said. “As encourage private initiative, create A stock en masse August 14, a result, the average price (of oil) new employment opportunities for numerous Arab stock markets fol- per barrel is expected to see a severe young people and improve govern- lowed suit, leading to what has be- drop, with the decline of the two ance towards supporting democratic come known as “Red Thursday,” in countries’ financial abilities to keep transition,” the ministry said in a reference to the drop in indicators at importing at the current prices.” statement. seven of 13 Arab stock exchanges the Since 2018, the United States and week of August 15, the day after the China have increased tariffs and bi- (Reuters) “Black Wednesday.” lateral trade restrictions against each Source: World Bank. “Black Wednesday,” an expression other, amounting to what some have referring to the economic fallout Au- characterised as a “trade war.” riorated international trade during er seemed to be more strategic for Aramco sets gust 14, was driven by an announce- In 2008, Arab countries hit hard- crises,” he said. many countries, being a source for September propane ment by the National Bureau of Sta- est by the global economic crisis Aly said countries suffering from 23% of electrical power generation tistics of China that the country’s were oil exporters as well. Statistics civil strife and unrest, such as Su- around the world, so it is likely to be price at $350 a tonne industrial growth rate had fallen to from TradeMap, a global trade track- dan, Algeria, Libya, Syria and Yem- exported upon pre-priced contracts Saudi Arabia’s state oil giant Ara- 4.8% in July, the lowest in 17 years. ing site, and the World Bank indicate en, were likely to suffer the most. that aren’t affected by the crisis fluc- mco set its September propane price The same day, Carsten Brzeski, that the six Arab countries most af- The United Arab Emirates, while be- tuations,” he said. at $350 a tonne, down from $370 a chief economist at Germany’s larg- fected by the crisis drew 24%-62% ing among the least oil-dependent This analysis means that Arab tonne in August, the company said. est bank ING Group, said Germany’s of their GDPs from oil exports. of Gulf states, could be adversely countries, with few exceptions, are The price provides a benchmark economic growth had slowed from Mosaad Aly, an economics pro- affected as well, he added, due to likely to face severe losses from the against which Middle East sales of 0.4% in the first quarter of 2019 to fessor at Mansoura University, said its high level of “real estate sales to expected economic crisis, especially liquefied petroleum gas to Asia are 0.1% in the second, the lowest quar- countries most at risk of economic foreigners, foreign investments in those that are highly oil-dependent, priced. terly growth in the history of the hardship derive their GDPs mainly the stock exchange and the passing sensitive to external economic insta- Aramco set its September butane world’s fourth largest economy. from exports and foreign invest- of international trade through its bility or facing local political, secu- price at $360 a tonne, unchanged With predictions that an econom- ments, whether direct, from the ports.” rity or economic crises. from August. ic recession could hit some of the stock market or from real estate “These activities are shrinking in Exceptions are Oman, which is a world’s largest economies, includ- purchases. Conversely, those least light of investors’ hesitation, as their key regional natural gas exporter; (Reuters) ing the United States, the United likely to be affected have GDPs that liquidity decreases, and deteriorated Egypt, which is a largely locally Kingdom, Brazil and Italy in the “are generated mainly from local international trade during crises,” he driven economy that aspires to be a backdrop, there was fear that a glob- consumption and domestic invest- said. key gas exporter; and Jordan, Tuni- Sudan needs up to al economic crisis similar to the one ment,” he said. In 2008-09, countries going sia and Morocco, which also have lo- $10 billion in aid to that began in 2008 could be in store. The United Arab Emirates, while through civil unrest, such as Mauri- cally driven economies. Arab economists and business- being among the least oil-dependent tania, Comoros and Sudan, predict- Despite being the greatest regional rebuild economy men, notably Egyptian billionaire of Gulf countries, could be adversely ably saw a decline in the growth rate. natural gas exporter, Qatar, whose Sudan needs $8 billion in foreign Naguib Sawiris, called for precau- affected as well, he added, because Unlike other oil-dependent eco- economic growth rate declined aid over the next two years to cover tionary measures, such as cutting of its high level of “real estate sales nomics, Qatar, Oman and Algeria ef- 33% from 2016-18, was expected to its import bill and help rebuild its interest rates on deposits and loans. to foreigners, foreign investments fectively weathered the economic continue a downward trajectory as ravaged economy after months of However, it is unclear whether the in the stock exchange and the pass- crisis in 2008-09, because, Mostafa it remains isolated politically and political turmoil, Sudanese Prime measures would be enough to help ing of international trade through its said, of their role as key natural gas economically by Saudi Arabia, the Minister Abdalla Hamdok said. Arab economies, especially those ports.” exporters to the United States and United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Hamdok said up to another $2 most dependent on oil sales, weath- “These activities are shrinking Europe. Egypt. billion of foreign reserves depos- er the storm, economists said. in light of investors’ hesitation, as “In spite of the direct proportion its were needed in the next three Ibrahim Mostafa, an economic re- their liquidity decreases and dete- between oil and gas prices, the lat- Ahmed Fouad is an Egyptian writer. months to halt a fall in the Suda- nese pound. Viewpoint Hamdok, who has worked for the UN Economic Commission for Af- rica, said he had started talks with the International Monetary Fund Renewed push for Iraqi-Kuwaiti gas supply deal and the World Bank about restruc- turing Sudan’s crippling debt and restarting their shared Neutral expected this year. It is unclear through plant upgrades as well as had approached friendly nations Zone production. how much progress has been made increased LNG supplies to avoid and funding bodies about the aid. In August 2018, then-Kuwaiti Oil on that new pipeline. blackouts. Jareer Elass Minister Bakheet al-Rashidi said As part of the potential gas In June, Kuwait’s Ministry of (Reuters) the government expected to reach supply deal, Kuwait signed an Electricity and Water stated that, an agreement on importing gas agreement with the Basra Gas with temperatures topping 50 from Iraq as well as the develop- Company — a consortium com- degrees Celsius, the emirate Palestinians receive ment of shared border fields by the prised of Iraqi state firm South Gas recorded its highest electricity partial payment of uwait and Iraq are end of last year. Company, Royal Dutch Shell and consumption of 14,360 megawatts building on their Kuwait’s growing electricity Mitsubishi that produce gas from (MW), a 3.5% rise compared to the overdue taxes neighbourly energy demand and Iraq’s desire to not the Iraqi southern fields of Zubair, highest rate registered in 2018. The Palestinian Authority, in cooperation with news waste gas it flares daily were the Qurna 1 and Rumaila. Kuwait’s power grid capacity is deep financial crisis since Israel that they have picked impetus for the neighbours to A recent Kuwaiti media report approximately 18,000 MW. froze tax transfers in February, said a British firm to agree in principle to a gas supply stated the gas agreement had been Kuwait became the first LNG it accepted a partial payment of Kconduct a technical study on deal in early 2018 involving the on hold because, while it had been importer among the Gulf Coopera- more than $500 million. developing joint border oil piped delivery of gas from south- approved by former Oil Minister tion Council members in 2009, “An agreement was reached a fields. ern Iraqi fields to Kuwait. Abdul Jabar Ali al-Luaibi under taking in imports via a floating few days ago with the Israeli side However, one project prelimi- The agreement, which had been Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s storage and regasification unit at for transferring duties on oil and narily agreed to last year by the under discussion by the former government, it now needs to be al-Zour Port. fuel which the Palestinian Author- two Gulf countries, involving foes for several years, was for Iraq signed off by Ghadhban under the A major infrastructure project in ity bought in Israel to the amount natural gas deliveries to aid to initially supply the emirate with current Iraqi administration. progress at al-Zour that includes a of around 2 billion shekels ($568 Kuwait in meeting its soaring 50 million cubic feet per day Disagreement over the pricing of 615,000-barrel-per-day refinery million),” Palestinian Civil Affairs electricity demand and help Iraq (MMCF/D) of gas, with volumes the Iraqi gas may have delayed and the petrochemical plant would Minister Hussein al-Sheikh said. pay war reparations, still needs a gradually rising to 200 MMCF/D. finalising the supply deal. provide the emirate with a perma- sign-off from the government of The arrangement was intended to Kuwait uses natural gas primarily nent LNG import terminal with an (Agence France-Presse) Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul- help Baghdad work down repara- for domestic power generation, annual regasification capacity of 22 Mahdi. tions it owes to Kuwait from its water desalination and in its million tonnes and eight storage The two Gulf countries signed 1990 invasion, recently estimated petrochemical industry. Because of tanks. The land-based LNG facility Judge orders Iraq to an agreement in early August at $3.7 billion. the Kuwaiti government’s contin- is to be completed in the first pay millions to slain awarding British reservoir Iraq flares some 1.7 billion cubic ued practice of heavily subsidising quarter of 2021. speciality firm ERC Equipoise a feet per day of associated gas electricity costs for its citizens, State oil firm Kuwait Petroleum contractor’s firm contract to study the most primarily from its southern oil domestic power demand continues Corporation indicated that it will A military contractor whose top effective way to invest and tap fields, losing as much as $2.5 billion to climb, particularly during the transition from short-term supply executive was killed in Iraq under into several shared border oil in potential revenue. Iraqi Oil summer months. deals to contracts of up to 15 years mysterious circumstances 15 years fields. The technical review, Minister Thamer Ghadhban said Kuwait is consistently ranked of annual LNG volumes totalling 6 ago has won a judgment of approxi- expected to take two-and-a-half this summer that his government among the highest in the world in million-7 million tonnes after mately $140 million against Iraq to years, will reportedly focus on the aimed to eliminate flaring from power consumption per capita. The 2020. reimburse the contractor for funds Ratqa/Rumaila and Safwan/Abdali those fields by 2022. emirate has become increasingly Should the Iraqi-Kuwaiti gas it never received. fields. Although early discussions dependent on liquefied natural gas supply deal fail to materialise, it The judgment of nearly $89 mil- Developing shared oil fields has focused on using an existing (LNG) imports because its own gas wouldn’t be a stretch for the lion plus interest and attorneys’ long been a sticky issue for Gulf 30-year-old pipeline near Basra output is insufficient to match emirate to revise or supplement fees issued by a federal judge in producers but Kuwait began that would have required extensive demand. those LNG contracts to satisfy its Washington caps a decade-long pushing to resolve outstanding maintenance, it was subsequently Although areas in the emirate domestic power needs. legal battle between Pennsylvania- field conflicts with several of its reported that Iraq had hired were hit by power cuts as recently based Wye Oak Technology and neighbours last year, resulting in Japanese firm Tokyo Engineering as the summer of 2016, the Jareer Elass reports from Iraq. the collaboration with Baghdad to build a new line to Kuwait, with government has worked to increase Washington on energy issues for (The Associated Press) and progress with Riyadh on completion and first deliveries the Gulf country’s power capacity The Arab Weekly. September 1, 2019 19 Economy

Egypt’s consumer markets attract Arab investors

Mohamed Hammad ity trading in Egypt stimulated the private sector to enter the activity, which is consistent with the gov- Cairo ernment’s strategy to expand the sector by introducing more logis- he Egyptian Ministry of tics areas, commercial centres and Supply and Internal Trade store chains in various districts. has proposed to Arab in- It is expected that a large logis- T vestors ten investment op- tics zone for trading and condi- portunities in trade logistics and tioning dates and pickled goods huge wholesale and retail mar- for export will be inaugurated on kets of a total investment value of an area of ​​4.2 hectares, in addi- about $2.4 billion and covering an tion to the opening of wholesale area of 126 hectares. markets for ready-made clothes. Arab investors are racing to win In the last year, some 23 million those opportunities, driven by shoppers visited the 11 Carrefour the rising consumer power of an hypermarkets in Egypt, which are Egyptian population of more than owned by the United Arab Emir- 99 million people. ates’ Majid Al Futtaim Group. Food and drink account for Noureddine Mohamed, presi- 37.1% of the total spending of dent of Target Investment, said Egyptian households, which rep- the Egyptian housing sector is resents a good incentive to invest experiencing a slump in housing in large retail food commodity sales so real estate companies are markets, which also offer on the moving to invest in the admin- side many other consumer goods istrative and commercial sectors such as clothing, electrical appli- and the latter is the most sought ances and furniture. after because of population in- The domestic trade sector con- crease and the rise in consumer tributes about 17% of Egypt’s GDP power in Egypt. and the Ministry of Supply and Mohamed said the shopping Internal Trade aims to increase malls sector is more attractive to that share to 21% in the next three Arab investors, especially from years. In developed markets, the United Arab Emirates, after these ratios range 25-30% and are the successful experience of Majid important indicators that boost Al Futtaim Group with its Carre- demand, economic growth oppor- four and Cairo Festival City shop- tunities and factory operations. ping centres. Huge market. People walk past a clothing store window with placards announcing discounts for Investors from the United Arab Cairo is preparing to organise winter sales in Cairo, last January. (Reuters) Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Leba- in September, under the auspices non are competing for opportuni- of Egyptian President Abdel Fat- ties in logistics areas the govern- tah al-Sisi, a forum for commer- investors are aiming to expand Egypt, compared to small markets. pand their investments in Egypt ment is seeking to launch in South cial brands to attract the largest investment to the regions in the He said the experience of United and duplicate their successful Sinai, the Red Sea, Suez, Ismailia, number of international inves- coming period after having fo- Arab Emirates and Saudi investors experiences in investing in shop- Fayoum, Beni Suef, Sohag and tors possible to open outlets in cused for many years on Cairo be- in the field motivates them to ex- ping malls. The domestic trade New Valley. the local market. Mohamed said cause of the lack of basic services sector, particularly hypermarkets, Ibrahim El Ashmawy, assistant the real estate investment compa- in the regions. Food and drink account for is characterised by a fast-working head of the Internal Trade Devel- nies’ gains in housing units were There are about 1.8 million capital cycle, which boosts profit opment Authority, said the min- 15-20% and that he expects these shops in Egypt employing about 37.1% of the total spending levels in the context of a con- istry “has a plan to boost the ac- rates to reach 50-60% in the sector 3.5 million workers but Wessam of Egyptian households, sumer boom supported by a large tivity of the internal trade sector, of commercial malls. Eissa, a member of the 6th of Oc- which represents a good population. which last year reached $55 billion Mohamed Mohie, vice-presi- tober Investors Association, said incentive to invest in large in commodity trading.” dent of the Egyptian Association the reality has proven that hyper- retail food commodity Mohamed Hammad is an He said the strength of commod- for Direct Investment, said Arab markets are the more successful in markets. Egyptian writer. Tunisia expects record olive oil production

Riadh Bouazza the beginning of this year, despite pected increase in Tunisian oil ex- of at least 145,000 tonnes a year, breaking one and we expect to government measures over the ports is because of a smaller olive representing about 80% of the do- reach the top rank or the second past two years. harvest in Spain, the world’s larg- mestic production, most of which place worldwide in the production Tunis Data from the National Institute est producer, as well as to the pen- goes to European markets. To and export of olive oil.” of Statistics stated that Tunisia’s etration by Tunisian exporters into boost production, Tunisia is plant- Over the past decade, lack of rain unisia is counting heavily trade deficit rose during the first new markets, especially Canada, ing about 10 million olive seedlings and climate change severely affect- on this year’s olive harvest seven months of the year to nearly the United States, China, Japan by 2020 to boost its standing as one ed olive oil production in Tunisia. to reduce its growing trade $4 billion, compared to $3.5 billion and India. of the world’s largest olive oil pro- Official figures state that Tunisia’s T deficit by exporting most the same period last year. In a note ducers. water resources total 4.8 billion of its oil products. For the first time on foreign trade at current prices The Tunisian Ministry of Although the country is facing cubic metres, with 35 dams with a in five years, olive oil production is published on its website, the insti- a severe shortage of water for ir- capacity of 2.7 billion cubic metres. expected to reach a record level. tute explained the rise in the defi- Agriculture expects olive oil rigation or human consumption, Some say that Tunisia can The olive oil production sector cit by a surge of 13.2% in exports production this season to which is forcing it to reconsider its achieve food self-sufficiency if the is one of Tunisia’s most vital. The and 12.9% in imports. reach a record of about agricultural map, there seems to be government changes its outlook on sector has been affected in recent Local agricultural circles said 350,000 tonnes, exceeding a strong determination to invest in the agricultural sector, which re- years by drought and experienced that if Tunisian olive oil produc- the record set in 2015 of the sector. mains marginalised and is consid- a reduction in production, which tion reaches the expected level, it about 340,000 tonnes. Samir Bettaieb, Tunisian minis- ered complementary to trade. The aggravated Tunisia’s economic would make the country second ter of Agriculture, Water Resources Ministry of Agriculture said the woes. only to Spain in olive oil exports. For the past decade, Tunisia has and Fishing, said this season’s ol- total area of potentially arable land With the prospects of a good Experts confirmed that the ex- averaged annual olive oil exports ive harvest “is going to be a record- in Tunisia is 5 million hectares, of harvest, agriculture officials and which only 24% is being cultivated. experts said they hope the country Experts also warned of accelerat- will gradually pull out of the dan- ing climate change affecting Tuni- ger zone by reducing its trade defi- sians’ food security unless urgent cit, since most olive oil products coping policies are adopted. Water are exported. scarcity in the last three years re- Chokri Bayoudh, director-gen- vealed a particularly difficult reali- eral of the Tunisian National Oil ty for Tunisian farmers, exacerbat- Office, said the olive harvesting ing the country’s economic crisis season, expected to start in No- caused by the decline of many stra- vember, is “promising and the crop tegic productive sectors. could exceed the usual rates.” In the face of the rising threats Sector experts predicted that of declining water reserves, the this season’s olive oil production Tunisian Agriculture and Fisheries will be double of the previous sea- Union repeatedly expressed con- son’s, which was the worst on re- cern about the negative effects of cord. Official data stated that last declining irrigation water supplies season’s production was 140,000 on agriculture, which consumes tonnes of oil, of which 117,000 about 80% of the country’s water were exported, generating $551 needs. million in revenue. In May, Tunisia received support The Tunisian Ministry of Agri- from the United Nations’ Food culture announced it expects olive and Agriculture Organisation to oil production this season to reach strengthen its efforts to develop a record of about 350,000 tonnes, the strategic sector with a view to exceeding the record set in 2015 of shifting to clean crop production. about 340,000 tonnes. Such lev- els would help Tunisia reduce its Riadh Bouazza is a Tunisian trade deficit, which has risen since Vital sector. A worker pours olive oil at a traditional factory in Tebourba, 30km from Tunis. (Reuters) writer. 20 September 1, 2019 Society Health Basra cancer patients decry poor health-care conditions

Azhar Al-Rubaie dose of drugs and every single and we still receive about 250 dose costs 160,000 Iraqi dinars. It people daily, some of whom visit is very hard to bear the expenses, the centre for consultation and Basra so my brothers help me when others come to take their doses, they can.” while the remainder are generally asra governorate in re- By 2018, more than 100,000 advised to stay overnight as their cent years has experi- people suffering from poisoning cases need to frequent follow enced a dramatic rise in visited the city’s hospitals and up,” said Dr Rafid Adil Abood, di- B cancer cases, with more the health system struggled to rector of the Basra Oncology Cen- than 2,300 patients diagnosed in contain an escalating health cri- tre for Cancer Oncology, which is affiliated with Al-Sadr Teaching Saving lives. Egyptian doctors make a test during a campaign 2017. sis. Sewage and industrial waste that aims to test 50 million people to detect and treat hepatitis C Despite Iraq’s huge budgets in contaminate the Shatt al-Arab Hospital. patients in Cairo. (Reuters) recent years, little was allocated River. Three-quarters of the wa- for health-care improvement. ter treatment plants in the city Official reports said The Islamic State’s control of one- don’t meet health standards. third of Iraq in 2014 led to weak- “The Shatt al-Arab is a tank of 5,720 cancer cases Anti-hepatitis ness in various sectors, especially poison, not water,” Shukri al- were registered in 1991 after the government dedicated Hassan, an environmental pollu- but the number rose to the bulk of the country’s budget tion specialist at the University of 25,556 in 2016. to buy weapons to fight extrem- Basra, said while taking a sample campaign tackles ists. of river water for testing. He said Abood said breast cancer in Naemah Khudhair, a cancer pa- water pollution had been one of women and bladder cancer in tient, said: “I have been suffering many factors leading to higher men were the highest among from cancer of the glands in the rates of cancer in Iraq. other cancers registered at the health crisis in Egypt abdomen and neck for five years. “Increased levels of environ- centre. It is so hard finding the chemo- mental pollution, particularly However, another doctor at Hassan Abdel Zaher tions, private firms, factories and therapy drugs in government radioactivity from depleted ura- the centre said, on condition of farms. hospitals. These drugs are only nium munitions used during the anonymity: “The statistics men- WHO Director-General Tedros available in private pharmacies 1991 Gulf War and the 2003 war, tioned by Abood are incorrect. Cairo Adhanom Ghebreyesus, in Au- at a price of 160,000 [Iraqi] dinars as well as pollution from the The number of patients is much gust, described the campaign as ($134).” emission of oil wells in Basra, di- higher but we cannot communi- gypt is preparing to com- the “world’s largest” and said he rectly lead to higher rates of can- cate them to the media.” expected Egypt to fulfil the hepa- cer in Iraq, in general, and Basra, plete its largest nation- Taking a patient out of The poor quality of treatment al health campaign for titis C eradication national goal in particular,” Hassan said. in governmental hospitals led screening citizens for ahead of schedule. Iraq for treatment is Official reports said 5,720 can- many patients to seek better care E not affordable for all hepatitis C and a host of non- Hepatitis C prevalence in Egypt cer cases were registered in 1991 abroad. communicable diseases. The “100 is now 4%, down from 15% when Iraqis. but the number rose to 25,556 in Muna Ahmed, a 22-year-old Million Healthy Lives” campaign the campaign started. Egypt said 2016. The statistics from that year resident of Basra, who suffers started in October 2018 and ends it expects to get the rate to 2.2% “Every 21 days I have to receive indicate that Baghdad and Basra from breast cancer, had a mastec- in December. by the end of 2019 and hopes to a dose of chemotherapy but I can- provinces were the most serious- tomy she now looks healthy and The campaign, the first of its eradicate the disease by 2030. not afford the treatment. Some- ly affected. well-recovered. kind in Egypt, was designed to Egypt has invested $250 million times my relatives and friends Experts said the increase in “My father flew me out of Iraq screen everyone living in the in the campaign and seems to be help me,” Khudhair said. cancer cases happened following when we have heard many pa- country, including millions of for- ready to invest additional funds Falah Furaid, 45, in the section the use of internationally prohib- tients went to Turkey to treat eign refugees, for hepatitis C and to assure its success. for advanced cases, said: “For ited weapons, such as depleted breast cancer and, on their ad- non-communicable diseases such Since becoming Egypt’s presi- three years, I’ve been suffering uranium. vice, we travelled to Turkey,” as diabetes, blood pressure and dent in 2014, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi from severe pain in the colon The US-led invasion of Iraq in Ahmed said. obesity. Those testing positive, has introduced a series of devel- area but I did not know it was the 2003 and resulting high rates of Taking a patient out of Iraq for especially for hepatitis C, are re- opment projects and reformed beginning of cancer. Four months air, water and soil pollution have treatment is not affordable for all ferred to specialised hospitals and the economy. The hepatitis C ago, the doctors told me I had also been factors, some research- Iraqis, however. clinics for further examinations campaign is viewed as his most cancer and removed a tumour of ers said. Head of the Basra Health Direc- and treatment. outstanding contribution because 3 kilograms. “In Basra, we recorded approxi- torate Abbas al-Tamimi said: “Our it invests in the health of the peo- “Today I’m taking the fourth mately 2,300 cancer cases in 2017 directorate recently received the ple and improves their quality of approval of the Minister of Health With more than 15% of the life. to buy medicines from local mar- population of 100 million The diagnosis and treatment of kets and 80-90% of the required suffering from hepatitis C, hepatitis C had been daunting and medicines will be available for Egypt had the world’s costly for Egyptians. Some people free to all patients.” highest prevalence rate of were infected with the hepatitis C Ahmed said: “Yes, it is given the disease. virus but did not know until they free of charge but how can we were diagnosed with liver failure benefit from this service when The screening, examinations or liver cancer. Others were aware the medicines are not available in and treatment are all done for of their medical condition but hospitals yet?” free as Egypt is investing a huge could not seek treatment because Saif al-Badr, Ministry of Health amount from donations by foreign of the cost. spokesman, did not respond to governments and international In 2014, Egyptian health author- requests for comment. organisations, such as the World ities acquired a licence for the sale Sarkawt Shamsulddin, a mem- Health Organisation (WHO). of revolutionary oral medicines ber of the Future bloc in parlia- “Hepatitis C was a national for the disease from an American ment, said: “Even in the Kurdis- plague in our country before the company. The medicines and later tan Region, the number of cancer start of the campaign,” said Dr variations of them drove the dis- patients has tripled over the last Wahid Doss, the head of the Na- ease recovery rate to 90%. ten years. Neither Baghdad nor tional Committee for Control of Erbil has a prevention strategy. Viral Hepatitis, the Ministry of The only thing doctors do is help Health agency planning strategies Around 2 million of with the treatment, which is not to eradicate liver viruses. those screened tested very good especially when we With more than 15% of the pop- positive for hepatitis C know that most cancer hospitals ulation of 100 million suffering and are receiving lack essential medicines.” from hepatitis C, Egypt had the treatment. “Fighting cancer requires a world’s highest prevalence rate of long-term strategy by the gov- the disease. The anti-hepatitis C campaign ernment but it is not even men- The epidemic took root in Egypt uses the same medicines in the tioned in [Prime Minister Adel] almost half a century ago when treatment of those who test posi- Abdul-Mahdi’s 4-year plan. Iraq health authorities tried to eradi- tive to the disease. went through many difficult cate schistosomiasis — snail fever Approximately 60 million peo- times and the health sector was — a disease caused by parasitic ple have been screened in the badly affected,” he said. flatworms that was widespread campaign. They included around Neglect by the government mo- among rural residents in the Nile 11 million school children and tivated the Basra activists and Delta. university students. Around 2 artists to organise a humanitar- A national campaign against million of those screened tested ian campaign called “A Dose of schistosomiasis included injec- positive for hepatitis C and are re- Hope” to support cancer patients. tions. Needles to administer ceiving treatment. Hussein al-Arabi, 31, a rapper drugs, however, were reused on a “This means that the campaign and a member in the campaign, large number of patients, leading is saving the lives of these 2 mil- said: “I sing to pressure the gov- to the spread of the blood-borne lion people,” said Manal Hamdy ernment to provide treatment hepatitis C epidemic. al-Sayed, a professor of paediat- for patients. Chemotherapy is no When the anti-hepatitis C cam- rics and a founding member of the longer the only treatment avail- paign started in October 2018, National Committee for Control able for this disease. Art is also a Egypt deployed an army of health of Viral Hepatitis. “Those treated cure.” professionals to screen citizens are an additional productive force “We are working with volun- for the disease. Public hospitals that the national economy is bad- teers. In fact, we can’t only wait and clinics opened their doors ly in need for.” for compensation from the gov- to administer hepatitis C tests. ernment or NGOs to help pa- The Health Ministry set up clin- Hassan Abdel Zaher is a Cairo- Health-care crisis. An Iraqi man carries his sick child during a tients. It is everyone’s responsi- ics in Metro stations, public based contributor to The Arab demonstration outside a children’s hospital in Basra to demand bility,” Arabi said. “We can help squares, schools, state institu- Weekly. the delivery of medical supplies for cancer patients. (AFP) patients, even with a smile.” September 1, 2019 21 Society

Women’s fashion another aspect of change in Saudi Arabia

Caline Malek no rules, crowning each other and Along with that, she said, came lifting each other up, as fearless more travel among young Saudi and unstoppable creators. women, calling for a need for more Dubai “The message is important be- stylish clothes. cause women should feel appreci- “They wanted to look unique, so ashion and female empow- ated,” Hefni said. “I go around in they decided to go to local design- erment are two concepts the world looking at women and ers because sales were less than Renad Hefni was adamant some of them don’t feel confident international brands,” Hefni said. F to combine in her daily life. or powerful and they deserve grati- “As the kingdom changed, so did After studying fashion design at tude. the habits of women in shopping. Dar Al-Hekma University in Jed- “Women are daughters, moth- Women used to be inside the lines. dah, Hefni propelled herself into ers, teachers. They create genera- They thought they had guidelines the world of entrepreneurship tions so they should feel the power in how they dressed and appeared with a clear idea in mind. and if they don’t get it from people, and they didn’t want to look too “When I was young, clothes al- they should feel it within them- bold and out there so they were ways fascinated me,” she said. “I selves.” too safe.” liked the idea that people always Becoming an entrepreneur was Dubai, she explained, offers a lot judged each other according to not easy for Hefni, who faced a lot to foreigners who wish to pursue their outfit. When you want to look of difficulties starting out in the their passion but Saudi women, in feminine, for instance, it’s a way to field. her opinion, have a lot to offer as express yourself without speak- “Creating a licence for the brand well. ing. So, I loved the idea of creating was one issue, as well as doing a “They have the potential to show powerful clothes to make women fashion show,” she said. “Being in more and I believe that, in the feel powerful without them know- Saudi Arabia and creating some- next five years, people will hear a ing it but looking it.” thing out of the box wasn’t easy lot about Saudi women. They will She started her brand, Royaled, but I’m still working on it. Being an thrive and everyone is going to in her last year at university, fol- entrepreneur and a woman in the hear about it. It won’t take away lowing her dream. kingdom has been a challenge but from Dubai but the Saudi woman “I knew before I had the oppor- it’s going well so far.” is capable of a lot,” Hefni said. tunity to go into college when I was Her clients are diverse, ranging The Jeddah-born designer said in high school, that this is what from Saudi women to foreigners, she has ambitious plans, includ- I wanted to do,” Hefni, 26, said. from the early 20s to the late 40s. ing fashion shows in New York, “The name Royaled comes from Her target is Saudi women as the Paris or London. “I want to take it ‘royaling’ — someone or crowning country shift towards modernism. to the next level, somewhere inter- someone — and is therefore about “Saudi Arabia is changing with national,” Hefni said. “I need my making women feel like they are progressive acts of openness,” she brand to go to another level other queens.” said. “Having women drive was a than just a Saudi-based company great step and my brand is about and my aim is to do that in the next Saudi fashion designer making women gain their power few years.” Renad Hefni back.” Her advice for entrepreneurs is She spoke of the Saudi fashion to drop their fear and take the risk, “Being an entrepreneur and scene as evolving as well, explain- after studying the market thor- a woman in the kingdom has ing that people were not neces- oughly. “If you have a passion for been a challenge but it’s going sarily “edgy” and “did not under- anything, you should go for it,” A story of passion. Saudi fashion designer Renad Hefni. well so far.” stand” her specific fashion when she added. “Life is too short to just (Courtesy of Renad Hefni) she started. “They liked it but they wish you are an entrepreneur.” The pret-a-couture brand offers never wore it,” Hefni said. “In the Hefni said she has high hopes for bespoke, powerful and stylish first year, I didn’t make a lot of the evolution of women’s position behind closed doors and now they and they are not afraid to show pieces, developed through careful sales. People enjoyed looking at it, in general. are signing at events so talents are who they are anymore.” tailoring and high-quality fabrics. mainly, but after the progressive “Women are taking action in be- emerging and people are showing Hefni described the brand as cater- act of Saudi Arabia, the market ing what they want to be,” she said. that they are not afraid anymore. Caline Malek is an Arab Weekly ing to women with no labels and changed.” “We have people who used to sing They can go out. They changed contributor in Abu Dhabi. The Lebanese bus that fights gender-based violence

Samar Kadi gramme, which seeks to engage men in working towards achieving an equitable society, free of hegem- Beirut onic masculinities and violence against women. hile many women and “Special sessions are conducted girls in marginalised with men to highlight what we call areas of Lebanon have ‘positive masculinity’,” Salhani ex- W no access to protec- plained. “We run a documentary ti- tion from gender-based violence, tled ‘Men in the Shadow,’ which ex- ABAAD, a local NGO that advocates poses positive experiences of men for gender equality, has been reach- — both conservative and liberal — ing out to those in need for such who have played positive roles in services through its Jina al-Dar pro- their community by championing ject. women’s empowerment and rights. Jina al-Dar involves a bus tour- This helped us establish a construc- ing the most underprivileged areas tive dialogue on gender equality.” of towns and villages, transporting Reaction to Jina al-Dar varied de- a specialised team to provide ser- pending on how open and permis- vices on the prevention and reduc- sive the communities are, Salhani tion of violence against women and noted. “In certain places we visited girls, said project co-manager Hani we were asked to come back and al-Salhani. conduct more activities. In other “The idea behind the project is to places they were not as receptive access people in the most isolated, but they were always welcoming,” remote and marginalised areas in Reaching to all. Jina al-Dar activists talk with boys and girls in marginalised areas to promote gender he said. Lebanon who have poor access to equality. (ABAAD) Given that in many Middle East- public services, social services or ern countries, patriarchal cultures associations that deal with issues tend to permeate all elements of of domestic or gender-based vio- case they are victims of gender- all backgrounds and social classes, violence and sexual abuse they are society, the lack of political and re- lence,” Salhani said. based violence, how to access the though they are more common in taken in by ABAAD in its secret safe ligious will to include women has “We aim to raise awareness, re- needed services, where to find psy- underprivileged and poorly edu- shelters. strengthened social “norms” that spond to cases of violence and re- cho-social and medical support and cated rural communities,” Salhani “Each case is treated individual- support male dominance and am- fer victims to the relevant services assistance, et cetera,” Salhani said. said. ly,” Salhani said. “Depending on the plify the conditions that have led to they need. We assist all those who “We are seeking to inform people In Lebanon, early marriages and case, some are transferred to social inequality, violence and unfair ac- are in need regardless of race, na- in remote areas who are not aware girls having children at a very young care or medical centres, while oth- cess to resources. tionality, background and religion.” that such services exist and how to age tend to increase in poorer so- ers are offered immediate safe shel- Jina al-Dar was specially de- The Jina al-Dar bus spends two access them,” he said. cio-economic conditions, especial- tering.” signed to mitigate the adverse ef- days in each location, contacting Since it was launched in August ly among Syrian refugees who live ABAAD runs several emergen- fects of marginalisation and ex- victims of gender-based violence, 2016, Jina al-Dar has reached 60 cen- in informal camps in remote rural cy safe shelters, referred to as Al clusion on health, gender-equality, raising awareness about legal rights tral villages around Lebanon, cover- areas near the Syrian border. Girls Dar (“Home” in Arabic). They are non-violence and social cohesion. and informing about medical and ing more than 300 communities. as young as 14 years old are some- free and safe temporary houses “It has an added value especially mental health associated to physi- “In the past three years since times married out. for women at risk or survivors of for the most relegated communi- cal and verbal violence. the project started, we have come In the case of physical abuse, gender-based violence, including ties because of their geographic lo- “Over two days, we have five ses- across various cases of domestic health hazards and risks of child- single and married women, their cation,” Salhani said. sions covering relevant subjects, abuse and gender-based violence, birth among young girls the benefi- children, as well as adolescent girls. including health problems, legal including early marriages and early ciaries are referred to the relevant In parallel to Jina al-Dar, ABAAD Samar Kadi is The Arab Weekly rights, who they can resort to in childbirth. Such cases are found in services and in severe cases of promotes a Masculinities pro- Travel and Society section editor. 22 September 1, 2019 Culture International exhibition at Sharjah museum showcases evolution of Arabic calligraphy

N.P. Krishna Kumar and may take up to six months to complete. To transcribe the Quran, it may take many years of work,” Sharjah Sheerefi said. Arabic calligraphy is mainly in- xploring Arabic calligraphy spired by the Quran, Hadiths, inspi- and how it evolved through rational quotes and poetic verses. history is the theme of Sheerefi said the oldest callig- E an exhibition at the Shar- raphy style that derived from Al jah Calligraphy Museum to mark Naabati writing, which was com- World Calligraphy Day. monly used in the North Arabian Titled “Evolution Stages of Ara- Peninsula in the pre-Islamic period, bic Calligraphy,” the exhibit, which emerged approximately 700AD. It runs through October 18, features was developed by calligraphers in more than 40 artworks by artists Kufah, Iraq, and became known as from across the Middle East and Al Kufi script other regions. For 500 years, Al Kufi was the The works selected from the col- only style used to copy the Quran lection of Sharjah Calligraphy Mu- after which other scripts, such as seum, the only museum devoted to Al Thuluth and Al Naskh, were em- calligraphy, shed light on how Ara- ployed. bic calligraphy evolved over 1,400 Al Kufi script developed over years. three phases, Sheerefi said. The From being a communication first was devoid of dots, accents medium, calligraphy blossomed or other symbols while the second into an art form boasting approxi- utilised red dots with the posi- mately 80 different scripts. The ex- tion of the point above, below or hibition focuses on six main Arabic in front of a character symbolising styles of writing: Al Kufi, Al Thu- vowel sounds. The last phase used luth, Al Naskh, Al Ta’liq, Al Diwani black dots to distinguish letters and Al Maghribi. that have the same basic form but A solitary work that serves as a different sounds. window to the exhibition is a quote Al Kufi is widely used on monu- Beautiful styles. Artworks on display at the Sharjah Calligraphy Museum. (Sharjah Museums Authority) from the Quran “Mankind and Day- ments but Sheerefi said he prefers break” written in a combination of Al Thuluth and Al Naskh. Al Thuluth, Al Diwani and Al Ta’liq He said Al Thuluth is one of the make copies of the Quran and has The Diwani Jali script was invent- pher’s speed in writing as a result scripts. most beautiful of the Arabic scripts become the script for printing,” ed by the Ottomans. It was used in of which some of the letters appear The first section of the display and the most difficult to write. It Sheerefi said. royal decrees and letters addressed broken. focuses on tools used by callig- is the origin for many of Arabic to foreign countries because of its Another beautiful calligraphic raphers, including bamboo and scripts and the standard by which The works selected from the clarity. It can be mistaken for musi- style to emerge was Al Maghribi, feather quill pens, special sharpen- the creativity of a calligrapher is cal notes in the way it flows up and popular in Andalusia and Kairouan ing knives, pen caps, cutting board, measured. collection of Sharjah down and can be fashioned into in- (Tunisia) during the 14th and 15th inkpots made of glass, silver and In Al Thuluth, one-third of each Calligraphy Museum shed animate forms. centuries. copper, as well as various pen hold- letter slopes, from which its name light on how Arabic Widespread in Persia in the Manal Ataya, director-general of ers and boxes. (“a third” in Arabic) is derived, calligraphy evolved over 13th century was Al Ta’liq script, the Sharjah Museums Authority, Iraqi calligrapher Adnan Al shedding the decorative motifs 1,400 years. easy and clear, with thin and ex- said the exhibition “aims to gener- Sheerefi, the museum’s Arabic cal- found in Al Kufi. tended letters. Al Ta’Iiq script is ate more awareness about callig- ligraphy instructor, stressed the Al Naskh script, invented during The official script used for gov- divided into several types, such raphy and calligraphers as an art daunting task of mastering the art. the Abbasid era and improved by ernment correspondence by heads as Al Nasta’liq, known in Iran and form that continues to evolve.” “It requires six hours of practice Ibn Muqlah, is closest to Al Thu- of state is Al Diwani, considered Afghanistan and Shakista in the Sa- for many years to become a profes- luth and could be considered a by calligraphers to be an adaptable favid era. N.P. Krishna Kumar is a Dubai- sional calligrapher and each work variety of Al Thuluth. “It is a sim- script that flows easily due to its Shakista means “broken” and is based contributor to The Arab requires patience allied to skill pler and less difficult style used to rounded forms. called so because of the calligra- Weekly. Islamic heritage inspiring watch design

Karen Dabrowska The 12-point star from the Alham- We are showcasing a rich tradition bra Palace, one of the most visited of 1,400 years. Our watches are in- sites in Europe, was chosen because spired by the world’s most iconic London of its beauty, balance and function- landmarks decorated with geomet- ality. The challenge was to bring the ric and Arabesque art.” slamic heritage has inspired intricacy and elegance of the Islam- Once the design was finalised it artists from many different ic tradition to a modern watch. had to be put on the watch. This was disciplines, finding its way to “We were looking at an architec- done through the 3D embossed ef- I watches that display geometric ture that is very complex and has fect, which best reflects the pattern. Islamic design by Miraj Collections, complex art forms and we had to The watch is encased in a high-grade, a company that bases its products square that with something that is stainless-steel frame that houses the on the 12-point star of Alhambra functional. We had to create some- Swiss-made quartz movement. Palace in Andalusia, Spain. thing that enables the wearer to Miraj was set up by Abdullah appreciate the architecture and tell Ahmed, a managerial economics the time,” Asif said. The 12-point star from the graduate and auditor accountant at The partners went to an event Alhambra Palace, one of the the United Kingdom’s National Au- on Arabesque organised by the most visited sites in Europe, dit Office, and Harun Asif, a physics Barakat Trust at London’s Arab Brit- was chosen because of its graduate and digital marketing spe- ish Centre. The trust supports and beauty, balance and cialist. promotes the study and preserva- functionality. Ahmed and Asif met in second- tion of Islamic art, heritage, archi- ary school, worked and travelled tecture and culture. It was agreed A Kickstarter funding campaign together across a large part of the that Barakat would help craft the raised $15,500 in 13 days to produce Middle East, Europe and Asia. They designs and a portion of every pur- 100 watches, which were expected visited numerous architectural chase from Miraj Collections would to be ready in August. More than landmarks that use Arabesque art go towards the trust’s conservation 60% of the watches were purchased forms. of the heritage that inspired the by people from non-Middle Eastern Speaking at a presentation about watch designs. backgrounds, including Canadians, their watches in conjunction with “We thought this was an amazing Australians, Mexicans and Japa- (Karen Dabrowska) London’s Craft Week, Asif said: A showcase of tradition. A view of a Miraj watch. opportunity to link the present with nese. The partners’ reservations “Travelling across the Islamic world what Barakat is doing about preserv- about the design not having univer- from Andalusian Spain to the Far ing the past. In our travels, particu- sal appeal were allayed East, we experienced its beautiful typical minimalistic designs of fash- “We wanted to challenge the larly in Fez, we saw a lot of buildings “Our primary aim is to launch a and rich artistic traditions and a his- ion offerings available today and to minimalist designs of the past that are being destroyed due to lack fashion brand that is as elegant as tory that left a legacy that shaped the redefine elegance,” Asif said. ten years and rediscover the sub- of maintenance,” Asif said. the Burberry-chequered pattern but development of mathematics, art Ahmed emphasised the massive lime beauty of traditional Is- Miraj’s design philosophy is based from a completely different tradi- and architecture across the world. columns, beautiful gates, tile work lamic art forms through modern on elegance, authenticity, craft and tion that people may only see when “We were inspired by the mes- and mosaics in Islamic architec- watches, accessories and fashion,” heritage. “We have to capture the they travel abroad. A great way of merising designs which rendered a ture. “They were the things that re- Asif said. elegance seen in the architecture overcoming cultural barriers and unique sense of beauty and wanted ally captivated us on our travels,” he At first, the partners were not of the Alhambra, Morocco and the creating a common understand- to share this timeless tradition in a said. clear about which designs they Muslim world,” Asif said. ing among humans from whatever modern context. This resulted in Ahmed, a watch fanatic, and would use for their creations. “Ara- “By working with experts in Is- background through the arts and the birth of Miraj Collections.” Asif, a fashion fanatic, studied the besque is very much like the Arabic lamic heritage, art and architecture fashion,” Asif said. “‘Miraj’ means ‘ascension’ in Ara- market and said they were not im- language, which has many dialects. we create designs true to their ori- bic, which embodies our approach pressed with the standard minimal- There are many expressions of ge- gin. Every material is sourced to en- Karen Dabrowska is an Arab to design. We aspire to ascend the ist uniform designs of watches. ometry,” Ahmed said. sure luxury, quality and precision. Weekly contributor in London. September 1, 2019 23 Culture Tunisia holds first edition of opera events Roua Khlifi

Tunis

s Tunisia’s summer festi- vals drew to a close, the Theatre of Hammamet A welcomed the first “Opera Theatre Evenings,” featuring a vari- ety of programmes produced by the Tunisian Opera Theatre. Events August 20-23 promoted Tunisian productions of ballet, sym- phony and opera. Future editions are planned for theatres throughout Tunisia, taking fine arts to audienc- es that do not generally have access to such performances. “This festival is meant to intro- duce the productions of the theatre of opera and serve as an opportunity to bring them to other regions of Tu- nisia,” said Monia Messadi, Tunisian Opera Theatre director. “This is the first big project of the Opera Thea- tre, to host a festival to take these shows, the production of opera the- atre, to other regions. “It will be a reference for future editions. It will host and feature all of the productions that are 100% Tunisian and introduce them to a dif- ferent audience than the one in the capital.” The festival opened with a perfor- mance by the Tunisian Symphony Orchestra, under the direction of Mohamed Lassoued. Hichem Am- ari, director of the City of Culture’s New vision. A scene from “Dido and Aeneas” by Henry Purcell, presented by Tunis’s Orchestra and Choir of the Opera conducted by Music and Opera section, described Hichem Amari. (City of Culture) the performance as a fruitful col- laboration. “This is a project that is both el- Four Seasons” production, they “This show also reflects the state “For the Hammamet show, we audience to a new aspect.” emental and experimental,” said were greeted by dancers performing and feelings of Tunisian youth after organised performances at the en- Messadi agreed that it was a Amari. “The music pole has a lot to solo routines at the entrance and the the political changes.” trance off stage and on stage. Every landmark opportunity for Tunisia. offer. It seeks to introduce the idea garden’s pathways. She said the mood of young Tuni- dance routine introduced a new “Even for me, it was the first time of opera to people and it had a rath- Nesrine Chaabouni, who directs sians wavered between happiness, quality and a new vision that is both to attend an opera in Tunisia,” she er pedagogical aspect. This year, we the City of Culture’s ballet and sadness and anxiety. modern and international.” said. “We have not had many opera have our own Tunisian Opera.” choreographic arts section, said Ballet director Karim Touwayma Messadi said the show was an im- or ballet shows coming to Tunisia.” the performance was important in said the programme was an op- portant step to bringing Tunisian “It is good to have Tunisia pro- bringing out more than the techni- portunity to revive and modernise opera outside Tunis. ducing its own opera and ballet Ballet director Karim cal component of dance, allowing it Tunisia’s heritage and culture of The festival concluded with shows with their own competences. Touwayma said the to connect with its context and en- dance. “Dido and Aeneas” by Henry Pur- It is an occasion to see the produc- programme was an vironment. “The ballet is one of the first pro- cell, presented by Tunis’s Orchestra tions of the different departments opportunity to revive and “Hammamet is a one-season jects to be founded in the dancing and Choir of the Opera conducted for the City of Culture. This first edi- modernise Tunisia’s town with shows only during the scene that combines modern and by Amari. tion was a success and we will be heritage and culture of summer and we wanted to show traditional forms of dance,” said “Opera is new to Tunisian audi- visiting other towns with the next dance. ‘The Four Seasons’ to suggest the Touwayma. “We seek to preserve ence but it has been well-received,” editions and more Tunisian produc- idea of making the town cultural the tradition, which is why we work Amari said. “It is the first time in tions,” she said. Other programmes featured the throughout the four seasons. It is on the national repertoire, and on the history of Tunisia that we have ballet “The Four Seasons” and vari- also symbolic because ‘The Four modernising the Tunisian heritage had a national opera production, Roua Khlifi is a regular Travel and ous open-air performances. As the Seasons’ was the first production of for more accessibility internation- which required a lot of effort. This Culture contributor to The Arab audience entered ahead of “The ballet,” Chaabouni said. ally wide. opera, ‘Dido and Aeneas,’ treats the Weekly. Arab theatre faces increased challenges in reaching the public

Sherif al-Shafei formances have become so rare, al- from fast-evolving technology in most secret because almost no one developing its tools and in its ability is paying attention to theatre perfor- to reach a wider audience, whether Cairo mances any more since social media on social media platforms, out on has dominated the scene, redefined the street or via smartphones, he s a distinguished novelist, the traditional performance media said. playwright, critic and aca- and integrated them into different Saleh said there is a gap between demic, Egyptian intellec- tracks.” the theatre and its audience, point- A tual Sherif Saleh has a pro- “Theatre has long been at the ing to the existence of two types of found and multifaceted relationship forefront of the media that raised theatre. One is a relatively popular with artistic creation. awareness and nourished dreams of commercial theatre that is wide- Saleh, in an interview with The change and reintroduced concepts spread. Examples include perfor- Art with a message. A scene from “King Lear” shows actor Yehya (Al Arab) Arab Weekly, spoke of his experience such as freedom, human dignity mances in Egypt by Masrah Misr and el-Fakharany (C) performing on stage. as a creative artist and critic, espe- and justice,” Saleh said, “but it is no in Kuwait by Tariq Ali. It is aimed at cially in the theatre, about contem- longer alone in the field of influence generating a profit and entertaining “I don’t want to sound pessimis- risky when the work is taken to an porary Arab theatre, the relationship and communication and it is going the audience. tic,” he quickly added, “but, in my audience outside the boundaries of theatre with freedom and democ- through the same survival experi- The other type of theatre is con- assessment, the era when the thea- of the local dialect. Egyptian audi- racy, the general climate and the fu- ences as other traditional media, fined to elite audiences that attend tre was the number one entertain- ences, for example, may find it diffi- ture of theatre with experiments by such as film, television and radio.” performances during theatre fes- ment medium is forever gone.” cult to understand and react to per- young artists. Saleh explained that “any You- tivals. The festivals have become The playwright pointed out that formances from Morocco or Sudan, Saleh gave special importance to Tuber today can act out a sketch “intensive care rooms to keep Arab the lights of the theatres at Emad while the problem may not exist the arts and literature. He said he in front of his phone’s camera and theatre alive,” Saleh said. Eddin in Cairo were extinguished with performances from the Pales- sees them as beacons of hope for broadcast it live on Facebook and Another aspect to the theatre cri- long ago and Egypt’s National Thea- tinian Territories or Syria. humanity despite the domination followers can see it instantaneously. sis in the Arab world is the negative tre is but a shadow of what it was in Saleh said he has no idea about of modern media and commercial “It is also not far-fetched that, effect of the bureaucracy and strict the 1950s and ‘60s. how to solve that problem. He is work. He said he believes it is impor- very soon spectators in Egypt and Arab censorship causing theatre to Still, Saleh said: “There are, nev- definitely a proponent of the ver- tant to salvage Arab theatre from its the Gulf will be able to watch live become isolated and separated from ertheless, from time to time remark- nacular in the theatre because it ex- intractable and demoralising prob- through holographic technology a its audiences, he added. able works shown, such as ‘King presses very precisely one’s identity lems — in bureaucracy and censor- show on Broadway.” The theatre is the art of the “here Lear’ by Yehya el-Fakharany and and cultural specificities but he also ship — that led to the near-death of Social media have not only re- and now,” the art of direct live inter- some very advanced experiments realises that it may become a barrier the theatrical movement and to its placed traditional arts in attracting action, and is, therefore, the most by young artists. It is in the hands to communication. elitism and isolation. and influencing the wider public, democratic and free form of art, he of the new generation that hope and “The solution may require bring- Saleh’s plays have been performed they have also redefined and radi- said. This is why it is constantly har- the possibility of renewal and over- ing the language of the performances in Kuwait, where he was awarded cally changed the arts. Saleh said assed and considered dangerous. coming the crisis reside.” to the level of simplified standard the prize as best playwright by Ku- he rejected the notion that theatre Saleh explained that his stay in Another problem limiting the Arabic or to give body language a big- wait’s Theatre Days Festival. His would become extinct but added he Kuwait allowed him to watch per- growth of Arab theatre is the fluc- ger role than the dialogue so that the work also earned an award in Shar- believes it will undergo a significant formances of plays from various tuation between classical and col- spectator can understand,” he said. jah. transformation under the influence Arab countries that included many loquial Arabic. The latter gives im- Saleh said the “the real dilemma of the digital revolution. experiments worthy of considera- portant creative characteristics to Sherif al-Shafei is an Egyptian lies in playwriting. Also, live per- It is also likely that it will benefit tion. every piece of work but becomes writer. 24 September 1, 2019 Travel www.thearabweekly.com

Agenda

Dubai: Through December 31

“La Perle” features 65 artists from 23 countries performing amazing stunts and aerial antics above an on-stage pool filled with 2.7 mil- lion litres of water in a state-of- the-art, custom-built theatre. The show takes place at Al Habtoor City.

Marrakech: September 13-15

The Oasis Festival is an event that celebrates electronic music. It takes place in the Moroccan desert for three days of perfor- mances and gathers artists from all over the world.

Tangier: A view of the wall in the old harbour of Akka. (Ruba Zeidan) September 15-22

The 20th Tangier’s Jazz Festival will feature international and lo- Akka, a city with cal jazz artists. Visitors can enjoy free street performances, free dance courses and jazz concerts picturesque during the 8-day event. This year’s festival lineup includes Buika, Anne Sila and Nico Morelli. seashore and a El Gouna: September 19-27

El Gouna, on the Egyptian Red resilient Arab soul Sea coast, will host the third El Gouna Film Festival. A diverse selection of films is scheduled, Ruba Zeidan grandfather about his flamboyant including documentary, narrative garments. and short film competitions in ad- I had often portrayed myself dition to the Audience Award. Akka strolling the seaside beside Akka’s famous stubborn walls, the same Nefta: hose who didn’t see Akka walls that brought Napoleon to his September 21-22 know nothing about the knees and sabotaged his ambition “ sea,” said Abu Adham, to conquer the East. Les Dunes Electroniques 2019 is Thanding a cup of his fa- Awarded UNESCO World Herit- a Tunisian event that celebrates mous mint tea. age status in 2001, Akka has more electronic music. The event takes “We take pride in our city, in our than 750 years of history. It pre- place in the Ong Jemel area of the walls and in our story” said the serves the substantial remains of Tunisian Desert near Nefta. More hippie-spirited grandfather who its medieval Crusader buildings than 30 international artists will runs a small, colourful tea house in beneath the existing Muslim forti- perform. the old town of Akka (Acre) while fied town dating from the 18th and I took a seat opposite the ancient 19th centuries. It is home for many Beirut: school of Terra Santa in the town of mosques, uniquely coloured mina- October 2-10 shores and salt. rets and ancient stone basins. Akka prison, the main theme of Beirut will celebrate cinema with Considered the third oldest a song that mourns three Akkawi the 19th edition of the Beirut city in the world, Akka is on residents executed 90 years ago International Film Festival. The for fighting British colonialism, is An alleyway in the old town of Akka. (Ruba Zeidan) festival will include competitions a mission to preserve its a landmark that still stands. The in Long Features, Short Films Arab identity, undermined building, now a museum, was built and Documentaries in addition to with changing street names as an Ottoman citadel. The graves holds the tomb of its creator. Those who fancy sampling the Lebanon premieres of films. and Hebrew signs scattered of three martyrs — Mohammad Heading to the old port, my fa- riches of the Mediterranean while in the old souk and the Jamjoum, Fouad Hijazi and Ata al- vourite part of the city, the smell of tucked in a wall or dining in a res- Abu Simbel: harbour. Zeer — are still visited. sea tingles the senses and the gig- taurant half dipped in the sea are October 22 Approaching the zigzagged allays gles of children and shouts of ven- well-served in Akka, where fish Abu Adham is a life-long resident of the old market, Al Jazzar Mosque dors who invite passers-by to taste such as red mullet and sea bass The Sun Festival at Abu Sim- of Akka, an Arab port city in north- appears in the distance. Ahmad their delicious authentic treats are land on the plate shortly after be- bel takes place in February and western Israel. He is one of the Basha al-Jazzar, the leader who welcome sounds. ing pulled from the sea. October each year. When Ramses thousands who refused to leave defeated Napoleon, was a Bosnian It is hard not to fall for the city. “You won’t be a real Akkawi if II built the temple, he had it and instead started an authentic Muslim who was once the governor Considered the third oldest city you don’t jump!,” small, sun-kissed carefully positioned so that, on tea shop, with the help of his three of Akka. Built in 1776, the mosque in the world, Akka is on a mission Ali said as he grabbed my hand and his birthday and the date of his grandsons, an engineer, a lawyer is decorated with crafted Quran to preserve its Arab identity, un- guided me towards a rocky cliff in ascension to the throne, the inner and a university student. verses, with a unique Byzantine dermined with changing street the wall in the old harbour before sanctum would be lit by the rising “We are still fishermen at heart,” Ottoman architecture style and a names and Hebrew signs scattered he bravely jumped into the sea. sun, which gradually illuminates they said before they teased their beautiful green dome. The mosque in the old souk and the harbour. Shirtless children were taking the statues of the sun gods. Every turns leaping excitedly into the year during the Abu Simbel Sun waters. There is an old saying that Festival, people gather along the Akkawis believe they will forever banks of the Nile River near the be protected by the wall. They are temple to see the unique sun- excellent swimmers and none fear rise spectacular and celebrate the sea. with food and dance and singing I escaped being talked into jump- programmes arranged by area ing off the cliff and moved to one of residents. the city’s famous attractions, Ham- mam El Basha Turkish bath. Bidiyah: Ottomans have left their prints November 15-22 all over the city and nothing proves as well as this ancient ham- The Oman Desert Marathon is a mam. Built in 1795, the building, spectacular footrace across the still functional, lures visitors and Omani desert covering 165km locals with its glass-coloured ceil- in six stages. From the Oasis of ing and domed reception hall. The Bidiyah to the Arabian Sea, par- place triggers nostalgia from the ticipants will discover the most doorstep till departure. The inside remote and untouched sands and reminds of beautiful memories the highest dunes in the region. where brides and grooms were pampered and celebrated before their weddings. We welcome submissions of “One doesn’t really leave Akka, calendar items related to not in heart,” I tell myself as I took cultural events of interest to a final look at the old wall that wit- travellers in the Middle East nessed a treasure trove of history and North Africa. and is beholden to its Arab identity. Please send tips to: Ruba Zeidan is an Arab Weekly [email protected] Sinan Pasha Mosque in Akka. (Ruba Zeidan) contributor in Jordan.