SELRAP Skipton-Colne Rail Link Phase 1b Needs Assessment and Appraisal
Issue | 20 February 2014
This report takes into account the particular instructions and requirements of our client. It is not intended for and should not be relied upon by any third party and no responsibility is undertaken to any third party.
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Ove Arup & Partners Ltd Admiral House Rose Wharf 78 East Street Leeds LS9 8EE United Kingdom www.arup.com
SELRAP Skipton-Colne Rail Link Phase 1b Needs Assessment and Appraisal
Contents
Page
Executive Summary 1
1 Introduction 2 1.1 Scope 2 1.2 Description of the Line 2
2 Policy Context 5 2.1 Route Utilisation Strategies 5 2.2 Lancashire County Council’s Local Transport Plan; 2011 – 2021 7 2.3 East Lancashire Highways and Transport Masterplan 8
3 Needs Assessment 9 3.1 Corridor Characteristics 9 3.2 Existing Travel Patterns 13
4 Engineering and Operations 17 4.1 Service Patterns 17 4.2 Current Proposal - Potential Options 17
5 Appraisal 22 5.1 Demand Forecasts 22 5.2 Standard Transport Benefits 25 5.3 Costs and Revenues 26 5.4 Overall Appraisal 29
6 Conclusions and Recommendations 32
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SELRAP Skipton-Colne Rail Link Phase 1b Needs Assessment and Appraisal
Executive Summary
Arup have been commissioned by the Skipton-East Lancashire Rail Action Partnership (SELRAP) to advise on the potential for reinstating the railway line between Skipton to Colne. The line was closed in 1970, but the trackbed has remained largely free of permanent development. The current study is considering the social and economic case for reinstating this line. It has been recognised in the ‘East Lancashire Highways and Transport Masterplan’ that the area of East Lancashire suffers with poor connectivity to surrounding areas, due to poor rail and road networks. The area has good, if slow, bus links to Manchester, however lacks public transport links to economic centres to the east such as Leeds. Potential service options are outlined. The report considers how the re-opening of the line will provide local connections to nearby economic centres, the strategic significance of the line for passenger services and freight and also a consideration of the engineering layout options. A high level economic appraisal has been undertaken to evaluate the economic efficiency of the proposed scheme. The appraisal considers the economic benefits of journey time savings and reduced car use against the capital costs of the scheme and the level of subsidy likely to be required. In accordance with WebTAG guidance, the appraisal has been prepared over a 60 year period. The BCR for the scheme is 1.52 based on median demand and the assumption that the single track option is pursued with a half hourly service from Leeds to Rose Grove. Based on a high demand scenario the BCR rises to 6.56. Other service options and double tracking offer a lower BCR. If the route were to be also used for inter-regional and longer distance services, the BCR could rise further as the current analysis is a conservative estimate of commuter yield. Wider economic and social arguments could also add to the case for the new service.
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SELRAP Skipton-Colne Rail Link Phase 1b Needs Assessment and Appraisal
1 Introduction
1.1 Scope Arup have been appointed by the Skipton-East Lancashire Rail Action Partnership (SELRAP) to conduct a study looking at the potential for reopening the Colne to Skipton rail link. Phase 1a (dated 18 April 2013) provided a review of the existing work carried out to date, analysing the economic, environmental and transport issues affecting the study area, and concluded that a number of changes have taken place since the previous business cases were developed [by SDG and JMP] and these, together with recent changes to guidance concerning the wider economic benefits of infrastructure schemes, could have a significant impact on the current business case. The purpose, therefore, of this current report is to provide an up to date assessment of the viability of re-opening the railway line between Skipton and Colne. This will be achieved by: Provide Policy Context: outline the main policy documents which surround the proposed scheme. Conduct Needs Assessment: understand and outline the baseline position of the study area, including demographical characteristics of the corridor, existing available transport network and current travel patterns and journey to work. Engineering and Service Options: Review the options previously proposed, provide Arup’s recommendations of the service and layout options. Economic/Financial Appraisal: Outline the methodology of the approach taken to appraise the scheme in terms of the standard transport benefits, the wider economic benefits and the cost estimates.
1.2 Description of the Line
1.2.1 The Original Line The original line between Skipton and Colne was opened by the Leeds and Bradford Extension Railway on the 2nd October 1848. In February 1849 it made an end-on junction with the East Lancashire Railway in Colne, thus completing a route linking Liverpool, Manchester and Preston with Leeds, Bradford and Hull. Data within The Reshaping of British Railways [Beeching] Report of 1963 reveals that, at the time, the the route between Burnley and Earby [via Colne] was carrying between 5,000 and 10,000 passengers per week and that between Earby and Skipton was carrying between 10,000 and 50,000 passengers per week. None of the double track route was listed for closure in the Beeching report. A report published by the Ministry of Transport British Railways Board in 1967 cited the Burnley to Skipton [and Leeds] route as part of the network selected for further development, and the trans-Pennine route remained intact. Notwithstanding, the eleven and a quarter mile section between Skipton and Colne failed to gain subsidy under the Transport Act of 1968, and was closed in 1970. There were four intermediate stations between Skipton and Colne, including Eslack and Foulridge, which closed in 1951 and 1959 respectively. Thornton-in-
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SELRAP Skipton-Colne Rail Link Phase 1b Needs Assessment and Appraisal
Craven and Earby survived until closure in 1970. A branch line from Earby to Barnoldswick was closed in 1965. Later in 1986, the section between Gannow Junction at Rose Grove and Colne was converted to single track. The proposed scheme is to reopen the line using the trackbed of the closed railway to restore the rail connection between Colne and Skipton, thus creating a new trans-Pennine route for passengers and freight. The line would have two intermediate stations; Earby (population 6,200) and West Craven Parkway (serving the town of Barnoldswick (population 11,000, 1.8 miles distant)).
1.2.2 The Current Situation Currently, Colne marks the end of the East Lancashire line. Trains travel along a single track branch from Gannow Junction in Burnley calling at intermediate stations; Burnley Barracks, Burnley Central, Brierfield and Nelson. Only one passenger train can be on the branch at any one time as there are no passing loops or sidings. The Colne line joins the double track line from Preston and Blackburn to Hebden Bridge at Gannow Junction. Skipton railway station has four platforms currently in use, with southbound services to Leeds and Bradford on the electrified Airedale Line, northbound services connect to Lancaster, Morecambe and Carlisle. There are proposals to bring platform 5 back into use, which could facilitate a new service to Bolton Abbey via the Embsay & Bolton Abbey Steam Railway. The line through Skipton carries a significant amount of freight traffic including; coal trains from Hunterston and the Ayrshire coalfield, gypsum from Kirby Thore to the Drax power station and stone from Swinden Quarry. The local rail passenger services to Colne and Skipton are operated by Northern Rail under the terms of a franchise that commenced in December 2004 and will run until April 2014 (with a likely extension until February 2016 when the franchise may merge with the current TranPennine Express Franchise). The specific services running from Colne and Skipton are detailed in a later section (3.2.2). Most of the trackbed remains in situ. There are several locations where it would require reinstatement. These include: Vivary Way in Colne; Skipton Western Bypass; Three level crossings on the route.
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SELRAP Skipton-Colne Rail Link Phase 1b Needs Assessment and Appraisal
Figure 1: Location of the Skipton-Colne rail line in the context of the local road and rail network
Source: Arup analysis
1.2.3 Acknowledgements SELRAP would like to thank the following organisations and individuals whose generous financial support has made this study possible: Lush Cosmetics Alliance Rail Reedley Hallows Parish Council Friends of Nelson & Brierfield Stations Trinity Baptist Church, Colne Support the East Lancashire Line Association Unite the Union SELRAP Membership fees Donations from individual members of SELRAP
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2 Policy Context
2.1 Route Utilisation Strategies Network Rail periodically produce Route Utilisation Strategies (RUS). The purpose of the strategies is to set out the longer term vision for the development of train services and improvements across the network. The strategies consider existing capacity, infrastructure capability and train operations, and also forecast future demand and provide recommendations on how to accommodate this. It is therefore important to consider the strategies that could have an influence on the proposed scheme. The following have been identified as potentially important: The Lancashire and Cumbria RUS, the Yorkshire and Humber RUS and the National Freight RUS. The main points from these identified documents are summarised below.
2.1.1 Lancashire and Cumbria RUS The RUS for Lancashire and Cumbria, published in August 2008, covers a 10- year period to 2018. The scoping document defines routes covered by the RUS to include Skipton to Carlisle, Gannow Junction to Colne, Farrington Curve Junction (near Preston) to Hall Royd Junction (near Todmorden) and Blackburn to Hellifield. The single line branch to Colne and Blackpool South has been recognised to limit timetable flexibility and lacks the ability for trains to pass each other. The document identifies Burnley, Nelson and Colne as areas of social deprivation. It identifies the need for sustained regeneration and economic growth, and notes the role that rail could play in accessing educational opportunities, services and leisure amenities in this area. The RUS recognises that the rail industry business cases are not necessarily aligned to tackling social deprivation. However, there may be an opportunity to exploit other funding sources from agencies that carry a responsibility in this area. There are numerous references to the possible reopening the Skipton to Colne line in the Lancashire & Cumbria RUS: In a scenario of high mode-shift from road to rail, additional sources of investment funds could become available, in which case the route between Colne and Skipton could be a candidate for addition to the network. Colne – Skipton – there is a former railway trackbed between Colne and Skipton which, if reinstated, would allow services from Burnley Central to go to Leeds – either direct or with a change at Skipton, thereby significantly reducing journey time by public transport between Nelson and Colne and Leeds. A local group of stakeholders has raised the profile of this potential reopening and has procured consultants to work on the business case. Colne–Skipton reinstatement: A study commissioned on behalf of local stakeholders has identified a potential high level case for reinstatement of the line and services between Skipton and Colne. The most significant issue now is how the scheme could be funded. It is recommended that the alignment is protected to give stakeholders time to identify potential sources of funding and commission a more detailed feasibility study.
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SELRAP Skipton-Colne Rail Link Phase 1b Needs Assessment and Appraisal
There is broad support for retaining the option to reinstate the line between Colne and Skipton, and it is recommended that the formation is protected. The line between Skipton and Colne is closed and has been completely out of service since 1970. As a consequence it is not possible to travel by rail between conurbations on the route, and between most of the route and Leeds. A number of communities on the route between Nelson and Skipton suffer from deprivation and would benefit from improved links to Leeds. In addition, the Leeds – Hebden Bridge – Blackburn – Preston route currently has a service frequency of one train per hour and to access it passengers from Nelson and Colne would have to either interchange at Accrington or walk across the centre of Burnley. For passengers in Burnley this service via Skipton and Colne would be 10 minutes faster than the existing one via the Calder Valley. The line may be a suitable alternative to routeing existing and additional trains through the Calder Valley, especially freight due to the gentler gradients.
2.1.2 Yorkshire and Humber RUS The RUS for Yorkshire and Humberside was published in July 2009, covering a 10-year period to 2019. The scoping document outlines the routes covered including the lines from Leeds and Bradford to Skipton (the Airedale line). The Airedale line has experienced strong growth; however the possibility for further expansion is limited by; the existing track layout, signalling, limited platform lengths at a number of stations, peak crowding, line capacity on lines radiating from Leeds and station passenger capacity at Leeds.
2.1.3 Freight RUS The Freight RUS, published March 2007, is a national strategy which presents the main strategic issues facing the future of rail freight, identifying a strategy for accommodating growth and changes in current demand. The Settle junction to Whitehall junction (outside Leeds station) route is identified as a major route for freight. The freight figures for the Settle junction to Whitehall junction routes from the 2004/05 baseline are: The line carried a daily average of 10 to 20 freight trains in each direction. The actual freight train utilisation was between 50% to 59% Gross freight tonnage was 4 – 7.9 million freight tonnes The demand forecasts for 2014/15 for the route are: 0 – 5 extra freight trains per day in each direction, The Settle junction to Whitehall junction route has been identified as a key capacity gap against base forecasts. A number of solutions have been proposed in
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the RUS including investment in signalling to increase line capacity between Carlisle and Settle Junction, the lengthening of coal trains and continuation of the process of timetable optimisation. The Freight RUS does not propose any improvement at Leeds– suggesting that timetable optimisation and lengthening of freight trains are sufficient to overcome the constraint. The only freight issue identified by the Freight RUS for the East Lancashire line from Preston to Gannow Junction is the possibility of diversion of West Coast Main Line (WCML) slower moving Class 6 freight services via the Settle and Carlisle line and via Clitheroe to Blackburn. It is noted that the RUS is now a number of years old and subsequent developments may make the information contained within it outdated. Further paths for freight trains could become necessitated as a result of transfer to the use of biomass as a fuel for the power stations to the east of the Pennines, and a consequent reduction in the number of coal trains from Hunterston to East Yorkshire. Network Rail’s long term freight strategy forecasts that total freight demand will grow by 30% over the next decade in terms of tonne kilometres moved. Looking further into the future and analysing a range of long term economic scenarios, Network Rail suggests that rail freight could increase by as much as 140% by 2030.
2.2 Lancashire County Council’s Local Transport Plan; 2011 – 2021 Lancashire County Council’s 10 year Local Transport Plan sets out the vision for transport and travel in Lancashire. The plan identifies that congestion is an issue on some main traffic corridors including Colne. In terms of rail, the plan recognises that the rail service from Colne, Nelson and Burnley has poor frequency of services and journey times, limiting the ability of travelling by train to Central Lancashire, Manchester, Bradford and Leeds. Also there are long journey times from Burnley and Accrington to Manchester discouraging the use of rail. High quality bus services connect these areas to Manchester; however the plan acknowledges delays during peak time. The LTPs main priorities include: “Providing better access to education and employment” “Improving access into areas of economic growth and regeneration” “Providing safe, reliable, convenient and affordable transport alternatives to the car” Colne is identified as an area “suffering from economic deprivation and at substantial risk from the impact of reduction in public expenditure”, and is a key focus area to develop access to employment opportunities and access to skills development. Another priority of the plan is to “develop local rail services” to improve patronage at locations where there is the evidence of potential for significant growth.
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2.3 East Lancashire Highways and Transport Masterplan The ‘East Lancashire Highways and Transport Masterplan’ is one of five within Lancashire, each one covering an economic area within the county. The masterplan illustrates the issues in the area in terms of transport with a local and in-depth approach. The plan states “there is a strong belief that East Lancashire is poorly connected, with both road and rail networks making it difficult for people and goods to move around”. The plan shows that the area has good road connectivity to the west, but is poorly connected to the east, with the M65 motorway finishing to the west of Colne. The plan recognises that rail links within Pendle are particularly poor, suffering from long journey times and often indirect services to regional economic centres such as Preston, Manchester and Leeds and beyond. Poor service along the Colne line results in low passenger numbers. The Masterplan suggests that the lack of connectivity gives a “sense of isolation and the perception of the area having localised labour markets, narrow travel horizons and limited economic interaction with Manchester, Leeds and Central Lancashire making East Lancashire’s economic development difficult”.
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SELRAP Skipton-Colne Rail Link Phase 1b Needs Assessment and Appraisal
3 Needs Assessment
This chapter presents a strategic overview of the baseline position in the corridor, including current demographics, economic factors and existing travel and movement patterns. This baseline position will be essential in defining the need for any scheme and the key elements of that scheme.
3.1 Corridor Characteristics
3.1.1 Population The proposed rail line runs through the districts of Pendle and Craven with proposed stops at West Craven Parkway (for Barnoldswick) and Earby. By completing a new route linking the East and West coast main lines [and ports], and the city regions of Liverpool, Manchester, Central Lancashire and Leeds it would improve connectivity both locally and, across the North of England. Figure 1, above, demonstrated that the most populated areas surrounding the line are the areas to the eastern and western ends (Skipton and Colne, Nelson respectively) and the towns of Barnoldswick and Earby.
3.1.2 Car Ownership Figure 2 shows the percentage of households which do not have access to a car or van. The map shows that, with the exception of Barnoldswick and Earby (where 20- 30% have no access to a car), the majority of the areas directly on the section of the proposed line have relatively high levels of car access. The areas on the map which show lower levels of car ownership are the more urban areas surrounding the existing rail lines to the south (Burnley, Nelson and Colne) and south east into Bradford and a pocket of wards surrounding the Skipton rail station. The recent M65 Corridor Study by Jacobs gives a figure of 33% of the population of Colne not having access to a car.
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Figure 2 : Car ownership displayed by ward within the study area
Source: 2011 Census
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SELRAP Skipton-Colne Rail Link Phase 1b Needs Assessment and Appraisal
3.1.3 Employment Figure 3 shows the unemployment rate in the study area. Unemployment is distributed similarly to the distribution of households without access to a car, and exceeds the national average in the East Lancashire towns and Skipton. Figure 3: Employment displayed by ward within the study area
Source: 2011 Census
3.1.4 Poverty Figure 4 shows the percentage of area below the median poverty level. Although there is some variation across the area, a percentage of the population in all wards is below the median poverty level. The Pendle District profile from the NOMIS labour market survey suggests that weekly pay in Pendle is over £100 less than the Great Britain average. Twelve of Pendle’s wards are classed as “Assisted Areas” and are eligible to receive regional aid. Many of the rural areas within the study area are dependent on agriculture and tourism, industries which are often the subject of low wages. There is also limited access to low cost housing and poor access to shops, education and health facilities in these rural areas.
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SELRAP Skipton-Colne Rail Link Phase 1b Needs Assessment and Appraisal
Figure 4: Poverty level displayed by ward within the study area
Legend Skipton - Colne Line Percentage of area below median poverty
< 10%
10 - 20%
20 - 30%
30 - 40%
40% >
Source: 2011 Census
3.1.5 Conclusions Displaying the demographic data geographically enables the main issues within the area to be identified. The Pennine towns, such as Colne, Nelson, Brierfield and Burnley, have lower levels of car ownership, employment and higher levels of poverty than surrounding rural areas. The towns which have been highlighted are located along the existing rail line. The areas apart from Earby and Barnoldswick immediately adjacent to the proposed line appear to have higher levels of car ownership and employment and lower levels of poverty. Rural areas dependent on agriculture and tourism are often subject to poverty. Reopening the Colne-Skipton rail line as part of a through route would provide vital access to economic drivers such as Leeds and Bradford. The new route would also provide access to the economic drivers of the North West, specifically Manchester and its airport, Preston and Liverpool.
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SELRAP Skipton-Colne Rail Link Phase 1b Needs Assessment and Appraisal
3.2 Existing Travel Patterns
3.2.1 Bus A number of bus services operate within the area connecting the towns and villages. There are currently two bus services which run between Colne and Skipton. The 28 service, operated by Transdev, links Burnley to Skipton, via Nelson, Colne, Earby and Barnoldswick. This service has a frequency of up to three buses per hour during the week, two per hour on Saturdays and one per hour on Sundays. The timetabled journey time varies between 42 and 48 minutes from Skipton to Colne during the day. Pennine operate a similar service; the 215, from Skipton to Burnley, calling at Thornton, Barnoldswick, Kelbrook, Earby, Kelbrook, Foulridge, Colne and Nelson. This service is slightly less frequent with two buses per hour during the week and only one bus per hour during the weekday off-peak period, and all day Saturday and all day Sunday. The timetabled journey time is 43 minutes from Skipton to Colne during the day. However in the reverse direction due to congestion between Burnley and Colne, the arrival time at Skipton is unreliable. None of the services above is timed to meet trains at either Skipton or Colne rail stations. The Witch Way DalesBus 872 is a Sundays-only service, operated by Transdev, and provides Burnley, Nelson Colne and Barnoldswick (but not Earby) with an hourly bus service to Skipton and Grassington, in Wharfedale, North Yorkshire, and, with transfer at Burnley, to Manchester.
3.2.2 Rail Colne and Skipton both currently have train stations; Colne is the final stop on the East Lancashire Line and Skipton is on the Airedale line. Colne has an hourly rail service to Blackpool South, calling at Blackburn and Preston as well as local stations. The journey to Preston currently takes around 1 hour 10 minutes and a return ticket currently costs £10.50. The single track sections of the line present reliability issues, affecting timetable recoverability. This results in cancellation of trains without notice. Colne has no direct service to Manchester. To reach Manchester, passengers have to change at Blackburn making the outward journey time around two hours. The return journey takes up to two and a half hours. From May 2014 it should be possible to change trains at Rose Grove station and travel to Manchester via Todmorden and the reopened Todmorden chord line. Dependent on connections at Rose Grove, anticipated journey time is around 1 hour 15 minutes, making journeys to Manchester by rail from Nelson, Colne competitive with journeys by road. Colne has no direct service to Leeds. To reach Leeds, passengers have to travel [west] to Accrington and change trains. Journey time is approximately 2 hours 50 minutes. Train services from Skipton to Leeds take around 43 minutes, or less on limited stop trains, with 2-4 trains per hour. A return ticket from Skipton to Leeds currently costs £10.50 and £9.00 off-peak. There is a
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strong growth in demand for commuter travel to Leeds by rail, with 75% of commuter passengers in Airedale choosing to use rail. Train services from Skipton to Bradford currently operate with a frequency of two trains per hour during the day and take 37 minutes. A return ticket from Skipton to Bradford costs £8.00, and less off-peak. Skipton also has 5 services a day to Lancaster, 3 to Morecambe and 6 to Carlisle. Levels of service are reduced on Sundays. There is one morning East Coast service from Skipton to London Kings Cross via Leeds, returning during the afternoon peak. Proposals by the Embsay & Bolton Abbey Steam Heritage Railway would see a new service linking Skipton with Bolton Abbey. This service would necessitate the reinstatement of platform 5. This platform could prove useful for reinstated services on the line to Colne, and beyond.
3.2.3 Road The main strategic roads within the district are detailed below. The M65 and A59 provide east-west road links across the district. The M65 has junctions with the M6 and the M61 to the west providing north and south connectivity. Eastwards the M65 ends just outside Colne, where it joins the A56 to North Yorkshire and the A6068 to West Yorkshire. This causes long distance traffic not using the A59 to travel through Colne on its way to and from the motorway. The A56 links the M6 to the M66 at Edenfield to provide a link to Manchester.
3.2.4 Current Movement Patterns Within East Lancashire over 70% of commuters travel by car1. The ‘East Lancashire Highways and Transport Masterplan’ recognises that locally one of the biggest issues is congestion; the plan identifies the most urgent and significant highways problems in East Lancashire including the A56 and A6068, which run parallel east to west through Colne. Both roads are shown to be severely congested, though traffic flows have remained static for the past decade. All of the districts have very high internal daily commuter flows; around 8,000 commuter trips are made within Pendle. Large flows of people (over 4,500) travel from Pendle to Burnley for work, and vice versa. From Pendle there is a significant flow of commuter trips to Yorkshire (1,500-2,000) and also to Blackburn with Darwen (1,500-2,000 each). Currently there are significant flows of commuters (over 1,500) travelling to Central Lancashire and also to Manchester, from most districts within East Lancashire, except Pendle. In terms of longer distance trips, large numbers of journeys cross the area as East Lancashire sits on a main corridor between the North West and Yorkshire and the Humber.
1 RAC Foundation, ‘The Car and the Commute’, 2013
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SELRAP Skipton-Colne Rail Link Phase 1b Needs Assessment and Appraisal
Journey to Work data from the 2001 census2 (shown in Figure 5) shows that the majority of people who live within the district of Pendle also work within Pendle; 66% of the journey to work trips are within the ditrict. The remaining residents work within surrounding districts and economic centres, such as Burnley, Craven and Bradford, or nearby cities such as Manchester and Preston and Leeds. Figure 5: Travel to for work locations for Pendle Residents
Pendle 4052 Burnley 519 Craven 362 Bradford 169 Ribble Valley 159 Blackburn with Darwen 135 Hyndburn 123 Preston 60 Rossendale 60 Manchester 54 South ribble 36 Bolton 30 Salford 27 Bury 24 Calderdale 24 Leeds 24 Other 327 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 Source: 2001 Census – Journey to Work
Of the 4052 trips made to a destination within Pendle, in 2001,only 19% were to Colne town centre (Waterside Ward). Of the 4052 trips made within Pendle, in 2001, 55% of the trips were made within the same ward, suggesting that 36% of the residents living in the district of Pendle, worked within the ward they lived. In 2001, of the 54 journey to work trips made to Manchester per day, 50% were to central Manchester, the remaining 50% were to the outskirts. Similarly, of the 24 trips made to Leeds, 50% were to central Leeds. The journey to work data shows that two thirds of the residents within Pendle worked within Pendle. Very few people worked within Leeds, which may be due to the present lack of connectivity. The proposed rail link could enable more Pendle residents to seek employment in Leeds and Bradford, and many other destinations currently not an option for jobseekers in East Lancashire. However, any service would need to offer attractive journey times and fares to be competitive with car. Data from the 2011 Census shows that 1% of Pendle residents travel to work by train. This compares to 4% in Craven. In both authorities car us is high at 76% and 73% respectively. It is likely that rail fares between the Aire Valley and Pendle will be lower than those currently available via the Copy Pit route as the line is much shorter (e.g. an
2 2011 Census data is not yet available for detailed origin/destination analysis
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SELRAP Skipton-Colne Rail Link Phase 1b Needs Assessment and Appraisal
off-peak return fare from Colne to Keighley including walking across both Burnley and Bradford is £32.80; after re-opening with a rail distance of 18 miles it is likely to be the same as the current fare from Colne to Pleasington, a similar distance and just £9.80). For this reason and to reflect greater use of season and reduced ticketing produces a lower fare yield has been assumed in this analysis. The proposed rail line linking Skipton with Colne will facilitate a new range of journey opportunities from local and commuting to new strategic longer distance opportunities. An uplift to reflect these new opportunities has been assumed within the analysis.
3.2.5 Future Growth Plans The East Lancashire Highways and Transport Masterplan outlines the places within the area which are expected to grow in terms of population and areas of economic development. Pendle’s population is rising with an expected 11% increase by 2035; therefore there will be a significant increase in housing provision required and a need for new jobs. Pendle Council suggests that up to 4,800 new houses will be required to accommodate this increase3. Craven Council’s housing target is set at 160 new homes per year. This equates to around 3,300 new homes by 2035 Further economic development is a key focus for East Lancashire; potential development sites have been identified across the county and plans have been developed to ensure growth occurs.
3 Pendle Core Strategy Further Options Report, 2013
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SELRAP Skipton-Colne Rail Link Phase 1b Needs Assessment and Appraisal
4 Engineering and Operations
This chapter provides a brief summary of the service patterns proposed by the previous two reports before outlining the potential options proposed from this report. Our proposal considers how the re-opening of the line will provide local connections to nearby economic centres, the strategic significance of the line for passenger services and freight and also a consideration of the engineering layout options.
4.1 Service Patterns
4.1.1 Previous Proposals The previous reports by SDG and JMP suggested potential service options. Please refer back to phase 1a for details and practical considerations associated with these options. To summarise, SDG proposed the following service options: An hourly Skipton-Colne shuttle Extension of the Blackpool-Colne service onto to Skipton Manchester Victoria - Blackburn – Skipton service Blackburn – Skipton Extending local services beyond Skipton to Leeds or Bradford Foster Square Leeds or Bradford to Manchester Airport Leeds or Bradford to Manchester Victoria West Yorkshire to Lancashire / Cumbria West Yorkshire and the Lake District would potentially provide relief to the A65. JMP proposed: An hourly Skipton to Colne shuttle service Extending the current Blackpool South to Colne service Skipton to Manchester Victoria service Skipton to Blackburn service Leeds to Manchester Victoria service
4.2 Current Proposal - Potential Options
4.2.1 Local Connections The two main centres for potential demand (especially commuter driven demand), are likely to be Leeds and Manchester, although there will also be a wide range of other destinations.
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4.2.1.1 Leeds Options
Option 1 A Rose Grove to Leeds service. Stops would include Burnley Barracks Burnley Central, Brierfield, Nelson, Colne, West Craven Parkway and Earby. Options to provide this service include: Either extending the existing Skipton to Leeds service onto Rose Grove. The journey time from Colne to Leeds would be around 57 minutes. This option would benefit the stops noted above by providing a direct link to Leeds, which does not currently exist. Or as an additional Skipton to Rose Grove shuttle with an interchange at Skipton. Journey time from Colne to Leeds would be around 62-67 depending on the connectional allowance. Both options would necessitate a new bay platform at Rose Grove and termination of the existing Blackpool South to Colne service at Rose Grove. This option would require 2 additional units to operate at a half hour frequency.
Option 2 A Preston to Leeds service stopping at all stations on the current Preston to Colne section of the Blackpool South to Colne service and the stations mentioned in Option 1. This would also call at all, or most, stations to Leeds on the Airedale Line. This option would require 4 additional units to operate at a half hour frequency.
4.2.1.2 Manchester Options Once the Todmorden Chord is complete (2014) an hourly Burnley Manchester Road to Manchester service will operate, and is scheduled ultimately to take between 40 and 45 minutes depending on stopping pattern. Currently the only option for a Colne to Manchester service is via Blackburn which would takes around 100 minutes and it is unlikely that a semi-fast service will be economically viable. Reopening the former route via Bury is unlikely to be an option; part is now the heritage East Lancashire Railway and much of the rest is no longer available. If the bay platform at Rose Grove station was reinstated, trains from Skipton (or Leeds) could be terminated or call there with passengers interchanging to access Manchester via Todmorden. Depending on connection time Skipton, to Manchester could come down from just over 2 hours changing at Leeds to 1½ hours changing at Rose Grove In the long-term, and should there prove to be a business case, trains could go direct from Manchester to Skipton via the Todmorden curve, with a reverse at Rose Grove bay platform as is the current practice for through trains at Bradford Interchange station. This option is not considered in the appraisal at this stage.
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For this appraisal it is not considered that any additional units will be required to serve Manchester via interchange at Rose Grove as these will be provided as part of the Todmorden Curve scheme.
4.2.2 Strategic Options The Colne to Skipton line would provide an additional link across the north, between the west and the east. Depending on the service pattern chosen, it would connect the West Coast Main Line, at Preston, which connects to the north (Carlisle, Glasgow), south (London, Crewe) and to Liverpool and the Port of Liverpool, with the Leeds and the journey opportunities it provides. Three routes currently exist along this axis; including the Diggle route, from Liverpool to Leeds via Manchester and Huddersfield; the Calder Valley route, from Liverpool to Leeds via Manchester and Todmorden and the; Copy Pit route, from Preston to Leeds via Accrington. Capacity improvements are currently planned for both the Diggle route (electrification and extra services) and the Calder Valley route (additional services). These routes are shown in Figure 6.
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Figure 6: Main cross Pennine routes (showing current services patterns)
Source: May 2013 Timetable
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It is unlikely that Skipton to Colne can offer significant benefit for diverting passenger services other than diversion of the Blackpool to York service (a service of some description via Copy Pit would still be required to Bradford and Calderdale). It could be used for additional Preston to West Yorkshire services if they were justified. Capacity on the other routes can be increased by extending train lengths to eight vehicles which could be accommodated at most principal stations.
4.2.3 Freight Freight services currently operate on all three routes noted above; the take up of freight paths is below 60% suggesting that the new route is not a necessitated one in terms of freight. The Skipton-Colne rail link, would complete a new Trans-Pennine route connecting the East Coast at Hull to the West Coast ports in Liverpool. It would have the lowest ruling gradient of all the cross-Pennine rail routes, making it suitable for freight. The Mersey Ports Master Plan sets out a 20 year strategy for growth for the Port of Liverpool, with forecasts for growth in tonnage being in excess of 70% by 2030. The completion of Liverpool2, the new £350m deepwater container terminal at the Port of Liverpool will increase the amount of freight being delivered to and from Liverpool. This could result in a substantial increase in rail freight and thus an increase in the amount of freight travelling on the existing freight routes. This may necessitate future increases in freight capacity. Further capacity issues are likely to arise in the future between Newton le Willows and Manchester, Ordsall Lane Junction, Stalybridge and Huddersfield and between Heaton Lodge and Thornhill Junctions. Container services need to consider gauge clearance issues; the Network Freight RUS suggests that the Diggle route is the most likely to be converted to W10 or W12 gauge as the number of restrictions is less than other routes and it serves all of Manchester's terminals. At the current time the line between Blackburn and Colne is W6 Gauge which will limit the extent to which large container traffic can use the route.
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5 Appraisal
A high level economic appraisal has been undertaken to evaluate the economic and financial efficiency of the proposed scheme. In accordance with WebTAG guidance, the appraisal has been prepared over a 60 year period, with values discounted to a 2010 base and presented in 2010 market prices. Benefits and costs have been discounted at 3.5% per annum for the first 30 years of the appraisal, and 3.0% per annum thereafter. The appraisal has been based on two service options 1) a half hourly service from Leeds to Rose Grove and 2) a half hourly service from Leeds – Preston. Both these options are discussed in more detail in Chapter 4. These services would require curtailment of the current Blackpool South to Colne service at either Rose Grove or Preston. This results in operating cost savings, although these may be offset by the interchange penalty imposed on passengers who must now make an extra change.
5.1 Demand Forecasts
5.1.1 Overall Approach A high level demand forecast for the proposed services has been undertaken to inform the appraisal. The approach taken to the demand forecast is to focus on the additional trips expected to result from the new stations at West Craven Parkway (for Barnoldswick) and Earby and for travel to and from existing stations on the line, namely Colne, Brierfield and Nelson, due to the enhanced connectivity the new line will provide. Through application of an ‘uplift’ factor of either 20% for service terminating at Rose Grove or 25% for services terminating at Preston, allowance has been made for additional ‘through trips’ between other stations that benefit from the improved connectivity Burnley, Skipton and Keighley and other stations on the Airedale Line and East Lancashire Line. It is considered that, should the scheme proceed to further GRIP Stages, a more detailed demand forecast would be required. However, for business case purposes at this stage of project development, a trip rates approach is considered to be sufficient.
5.1.2 Assessment As noted, the demand forecasts are based on a trip rates approach. A trip rate describes the number of expected journeys per head of population within a station catchment area. Station usage estimates and 2011 census population data has been used to calculate benchmark trip rates for three nearby stations which are used as comparators. The catchment areas for the stations were based on the assumption that residents living up to 800m away from station could walk to the station and those living within 5km of a station could drive. The 2011 census and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) have been used to calculate the number of residents within an 800m and 5km radius from each
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station. For the proposed West Craven Parkway the number of residents within 5km is more significant than the local walking catchment. The trip rate is driven by service quality factors, such as frequency, train quality and journey time and not by the population (as the trip rate is calculated on a per head of population basis). Three stations were used as benchmarks, Cononley, Hellifield and Gargrave these stations are considered to be the most representative of the proposed stations. As they are outside of the West Yorkshire ticketing area and with the exception of Cononley are beyond Skipton and therefore have comparable journey times to Leeds. Other stations such as Skipton, Keighley and Steeton and Silsden have much higher service frequency, quality and lower journey times to Leeds and are therefore not considered representative. The number of people living in the catchment areas for the two stations on the Airedale line (Cononley Hellifield and Gargrave) is generally lower than the stations along the East Lancashire line (Colne, Brierfield and Nelson), whilst the number of trips tends to be higher, resulting in much higher trip rates for these three stations. This is due to the greater number and higher frequency of services that run through these stations, connecting passengers to a key economic centre Leeds in under an hour, compared with the East Lancashire line which has lower frequencies, longer journey times and no direct service to Manchester (detailed in section 2.2.2). The proposed line would offer new journey opportunities to Leeds and West Yorkshire as well as additional journey opportunities to Manchester and should help to deliver higher trip rates from the existing East Lancashire Line stations. The trip rates for the stations on the Airedale Line have been included because the new line would provide this area with greater connectivity to Leeds and Bradford. Using the existing stations on the East Lancashire line would not have been appropriate, when the increased connectivity benefits are considered. Table 1 below displays the catchment area population, the station usage and the resulting trip rates for the five existing stations. For the new stations at West Craven Parkway and Earby, the estimate of total gross demand (demand before abstraction is taken into account) is based on the application of the average trip rate for Cononley, Hellifield and Gargrave. It is assumed that current demand for Colne, Nelson and Brierfield will increase due to the enhanced connectivity the new line will provide. A percentage uplift in the trip rate has been applied to account for this increase in demand. Again, the uplift is based on the trip rates experienced at Hellifield and Gargrave which are currently served by direct services to Leeds.
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Table 1: Benchmark Stations Trip Rates
Population Entries and Exits Trip rate Station 0.8km 0.8-5km 2010/11 2011/12 Average 0.8km 0.8-5km radius radius Colne 12,272 73,332 89,148 98,026 93,587 4.58 0.51 Nelson 23,388 88,070 116,814 129,562 123,188 3.16 0.56 Brierfield 14,138 117,488 25,226 28,386 26,806 1.14 0.09 Cononley 1,163 10,226 141,610 151,846 146,728 75.69 5.74 Hellifield 2,168 4,615 25,390 27,298 26,344 7.29 2.28 Gargrave 3,037 29,348 21,370 21,890 21,630 4.27 0.29 Average Trip Rate – Cononley, Gargrave, and Hellifield 18.34 1.76 Average Trip Rate – Cononley and Hellifield - 2.28 Percentage Uplift for Nelson, Brierfield and Colne 1.83 2.53
Source: ORR Station Counts, 2011 Census
The slightly higher average of Cononley and Hellifield was used for the 0.8-5km catchment for West Craven Parkway to reflect the strong market in the town of Barnoldswick which, being 2.9km distance, sits within the 5km catchment area of the proposed station. Due to the close proximity of the new stations to each other, the 5km radiuses overlap, which means that population will be double-counted and included in both stations, resulting in the demand being overestimated. In order to account for the overlap, and to avoid double-counting potential demand, the geographical overlap has been estimated. This has then been split between the two stations and applied to the 0.8-5km population counts of each station. The updated trip numbers, taking account for the overlap, are displayed in table 2. Further, as noted above, an adjustment factor of either 20% or 25% has been applied to reflect through trips with an origin and destination beyond the five modelled stations.
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Table 2: Predicted Number of Trips
New Stations Demand
Station Population Overlap Predicted number of trips
0.8km 0.8-5km 0.8km 0.8-5km Total West 0.25 Craven 40% Colne, 10% Nelson Parkway 731 31,648 13,413 54,197 67,611 Earby 0.5 20% Colne, 80% West 3,920 17,550 Craven Parkway 71,910 15,465 87,375 Colne Standard uplift of 83% for 800m catchment and 153% 46,583 39,967 86,550 Nelson for wider 800m to 5km catchment applied to 61,317 22,546 83,864 Brierfield existing station trips.
13,343 6,542 19,884
Total before standard uplift (20% for Rose Grove service 25% for Preston Service) 345,284 / 431,605
Additional Demand Total (Rose Grove Service/Preston Service) 414,341 / 431,605
Source: Arup Calculations The overall demand forecast is for 414,000 trips for a service from Leeds to Rose Grove and 432,000 trips for a service from Leeds to Preston based on 2013 demand levels. It should be noted that the forecasting approach taken here is focussed on the demand for travel to and from the key stations considered (as per the rationale above) There may be additional strategic demand although, as noted in Section 4.0, the strategic value of the new route is limited to the extent that a number of routes between the East and West Coast lines already exist.
5.2 Standard Transport Benefits
5.2.1 Journey Time Savings The benefits accruing to users of the new service is based on an assessment of generalised journey times (journey times taking into account fares, service frequency and interchange penalties) with and without the proposed service. In the ‘do minimum’ scenario, generalised journey times from Earby and West Craven parkway to a set of primary destinations were calculated based on current public transport options using the Traveline journey planner. West Craven parkway and Earby are not currently served by rail therefore the majority of trips made by public transport consist of using the bus all or part way. These are compared against expected public transport journey times with the scheme in place, based on the expected service pattern and timetable for the proposed service. On average, it is expected the users would benefit from a generalised journey time saving of 19 minutes based on a weighted average of the working and non- working Value of Time figure this equates to an average benefit per passenger of
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£3.39 (from WebTAG Unit 3.5.6). This is considered to be a reasonable estimate of passengers’ ‘willingness to pay’ for the new service over and above rail fares. Applying this benefit to total demand gives user benefits of between £920,000 and £958,000 in 2018 prices depending on which service option is chosen.
5.2.2 Decongestion Benefits Decongestion benefits refer to the reduction in externalities (costs) that result from car use, including infrastructure, accidents, local air quality, noise and greenhouse gases. Values for each of these externalities are provided in WebTAG on a per km basis. The total distance travelled by rail has been estimated based on the level of forecast demand and an estimated average trip length. The resultant decrease in car use has been approximated based on a standard adjustment factor provided in WebTAG). The new line may help to promote highway decongestion as current passengers who travel from Pendle to stations on the Airedale Line might switch to parking at West Craven Parkway instead.
5.2.3 Wider Economic Benefits
It is anticipated that the introduction of new services would have a positive impact on the local economies surrounding the new stations. In particular, the number of visitors to these towns would be expected to increase providing a local economic benefit. However, it should be considered that visitor spending effects tend to be a diversion of spending from one area to another, rather than a net benefit to the overall economy. Therefore such effects are excluded from transport appraisals.
Wider economic benefits linked to the productivity effects of improvements in transport can add significantly to scheme benefits. Benchmarks from other transport scheme suggests that wider benefits can add between 10% and 30% to conventional benefits although outside of key urban areas the effect is likely to be at the lower end of this range.
5.3 Costs and Revenues
5.3.1 Farebox Revenue The farebox revenue has been estimated based on Northern Rail’s average fare per passenger journey of £2.23 (Rail Industry Monitor). A 50% uplift has been applied on the basis that the new stations are outside of the key urban area and therefore it is expected that the average distance travelled per journey would be longer than average for the Northern franchise. This results in an average fare of £3.34 per journey Ramp up factors have been included, as it has been assumed that demand (and therefore the revenue) for the new services will ramp up over a five year period. The ramp up factors utilised are presented in the table below.
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Table 3: Ramp-up Factors PDFH v5.1 Ramp up factors Year 1 70% Year 2 85% Year 3 95% Year 4 100% Year 5 100%
Source: PDFH v5.1 Future year passenger growth assumptions have been based upon information presented in Tables 3.6 and 3.8 of the Northern Rail Utilisation Strategy prepared by Network Rail. These are summarised in table 7 below. These growth factors illustrate percentage growth in rail passenger demand for the years 2014, 2019, 2024 and 2029 for a ‘high’ and ‘low’ growth scenario. We have assumed linear growth for the intermediate years, with no further growth beyond 2029. A ‘blended’ growth rate has been used to reflect the local trips to Leeds and Manchester along with the inter-urban journeys. Table 4: Northern RUS Growth Factors Northern RUS Growth Factors 2014 2019 2024 2029 Leeds Low 8% 20% 31% 46% Manchester Low 7% 18% 28% 41% Leeds High 17% 36% 49% 66% Manchester High 14% 31% 44% 58% Inter Urban Low 11% 18% 25% 32% Inter Urban High 18% 30% 39% 47%
Source: Northern RUS Based on the above growth rates, and applying the ramp-up factors, it is estimated that the revenue from the new service would be around £1.1m in 2018, rising to £1.5m in 2023. The estimated average fare has then been applied to the demand forecasts, uplifted by inflation, to give the estimated farebox revenue for the 60 year appraisal period.
5.3.2 Rail Service Operating Costs The annual operating costs have been calculated on the basis that services will operate between Leeds and Rose Grove or Preston as an extension to the existing Leeds to Skipton service and that the current Blackpool South to Colne service would be curtailed as appropriate. It is expected that between two and four additional two-car units would be required to operate this is a half hourly service depending on the service option chosen.
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Operating costs assumptions are based on those provided in the previous report, updated to reflect current rates. The cost estimates are summarised in the table below. Table 5: Operating Cost Assumptions Assumptions Leeds – Rose Grove Leeds - Preston Additional Units Required 2 4
Operating Miles 350,208 770,936 Based on 5.00 am – 11.00pm pattern Based on 5.00 am – 11.00pm pattern Staff requirement 6 12
Total train leasing costs £480,000 £960,000
Total staff costs £493,000 £986,000
Total train operating costs £1,681,217 £2,998,217
Station maintenance costs and £116,529 £116,529 access charges Total operating cost £1,797,746 £3,114,746
Source: Arup calculations The total annual operating costs are estimated at between £1.8m and £3.1m. These costs have been forecast for the 60 year appraisal period with the inclusion of factors to account for increase in fuel prices and wage growth. The service might require an ongoing subsidy depending on the service pattern chosen.
5.3.3 Capital Costs SDG (dated 2003) gave a cost of £33m assuming single track railway with no A56 co-location and assuming the A629 under bridge option is adopted. JMP updated these and gave a single-track option cost of £42.55m and double-track cost of £80.65m (dated 2007). In order to provide a high-level 2013 base cost, the total costs given in the JMP report have been updated using the BCIS All-in TPI index. The levels of optimism bias have been amended as a result of the fact that Network Rail has indicated that it believes the JMP study approximates to between [NR] GRIP levels 1 & 2. The results are shown below.
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Table 6: Costs updated from JMP Report Capital Costs (£s) Skipton - Colne Skipton - Colne Single Track Double Track Current year 2013 2013 Opening year 2018 2018 Difference 5 5 Difference 8 8 Cost inflation (%) 1.03 1.03 General Inflation 1.03 1.03 Base Cost Estimate £38,769,109 £73,486,027 Optimism Bias Adjusted Cost £58,153,663 £110,229,040
Source: JMP updated by BCIS All-in TPI index
5.4 Overall Appraisal
5.4.1 Leeds – Rose Grove Table 7 and table 8 summarise the financial appraisal of the scheme assuming the capital costs for the double track option and single track option respectively. Sensitivity tests have been performed for each option, the results of which are shown in the appraisal tables below. The tests are: Low case; 30% reduction in the forecast demand High case; 30% increase in the forecast demand
Table 7: Summary of Economic Appraisal for Double Track Option Appraisal - Double Track Option (2010 prices & values) Benefits Central Case Low Case (£000) High Case (£000) (£000) a. Journey Time Savings £31,059 £21,741 £40,377 b. Decongestion Benefits £12,579 £8,805 £16,353 c. Present Value Benefits (a+b) £43,638 £30,547 £56,729 d. Revenue £66,946 £46,862 £87,030 e. Operating Costs £44,387 £44,387 £44,387 f. Capital Costs £97,213 £97,213 £97,213 g. Present Value Costs (e+f-d) £74,654 £94,738 £54,570 h. Net Present Value (c-g) -£31,016 -£64,191 £2,160 Benefit Cost Ratio (c/g) 0.58 0.32 1.04
Source: Arup calculation
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Table 8: Summary of Economic Appraisal for Single Track Option
Appraisal - Single Track Option (2010 prices and values Benefits Central Case Low Case (£000) High Case (£000) (£000) a. Journey Time Savings £31,059 £21,741 £40,377 b. Decongestion Benefits £12,579 £8,805 £16,353 c. Present Value Benefits (a+b) £43,638 £30,547 £56,729 d. Revenue £66,946 £46,862 £87,030 e. Operating Costs £44,387 £44,387 £44,387 f. Capital Costs £51,287 £51,287 £51,287 g. Present Value Costs (e+f-d) £28,728 £48,812 £8,644 h. Net Present Value (c-g) £14,910 -£18,265 £48,086 Benefit Cost Ratio (c/g) 1.52 0.63 6.56
Source: Arup calculation
Under the central case, assuming the single track option is pursued, the BCR for the scheme is 1.52. For the higher level of demand scenario, benefits exceed costs by a significant margin resulting in a BCR of 6.56. It should be noted that no examination has been undertaken of the impact on service frequencies (and therefore demand and revenue) of the single track
5.4.2 Leeds – Preston Table 9 and Table 10 summarise the financial appraisal of the scheme with a Leeds to Preston service assuming the capital costs for the double track option and single track option respectively. Table 9: Summary of Economic Appraisal for Double Track Option Appraisal - Double Track Option (2010 prices & values) Benefits Central Case Low Case (£000) High Case (£000) (£000) a. Journey Time Savings £32,353 £22,647 £42,059 b. Decongestion Benefits £13,103 £9,172 £17,034 c. Present Value Benefits (a+b) £45,456 £31,819 £59,093 d. Revenue £69,736 £48,815 £90,657 e. Operating Costs £83,766 £83,766 £83,766 f. Capital Costs £97,213 £97,213 £97,213 g. Present Value Costs (e+f-d) £111,243 £132,164 £90,322 h. Net Present Value (c-g) -£65,787 -£100,344 -£31,229 Benefit Cost Ratio (c/g) 0.41 0.24 0.65
Source: Arup calculation
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Table 10: Summary of Economic Appraisal for Single Track Option
Appraisal - Single Track Option (2010 prices and values Benefits Central Case Low Case (£000) High Case (£000) (£000) a. Journey Time Savings £32,353 £22,647 £42,059 b. Decongestion Benefits £13,103 £9,172 £17,034 c. Present Value Benefits (a+b) £45,456 £31,819 £59,093 d. Revenue £69,736 £48,815 £90,657 e. Operating Costs £83,766 £83,766 £83,766 f. Capital Costs £51,287 £51,287 £51,287 g. Present Value Costs (e+f-d) £65,317 £86,238 £44,396 h. Net Present Value (c-g) -£19,861 -£54,418 £14,697 Benefit Cost Ratio (c/g) 0.70 0.37 1.33
Source: Arup calculation
The higher operating costs for this option mean that only the high demand sensitivity test produces a positive BCR, of 1.33.
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6 Conclusions and Recommendations
The purpose of this report has been to provide an updated analysis of the key transport issues in the Colne – Skipton corridor and to re-examine the case for the re-opening of the Skipton to Colne rail link. Phase 1a reviewed the two previous studies in order to provide the basis for this updated 2013 report. This study has provided an updated analysis considering the social need for the link, the potential service and engineering options and has conducted a current economic appraisal of the scheme. The key conclusions of the report are: Needs Assessment The areas directly surrounding the proposed Skipton to Colne rail link have the following characteristics: There are key towns at each end of the route and smaller towns/villages along the route With the exception of Barnoldswick and Earby, car ownership within the immediate corridor of the new route is relatively high, and the absence of attractive public transport options frequently makes car use the most viable option. The level of unemployment is relatively low, except in the Pennine Lancashire towns. The level of poverty is relatively low, except in the Pennine Lancashire towns. Together with Barnoldswick and Earby the urban areas to east and to the west of the line have higher population, lower car ownership, higher unemployment and poverty. These areas could benefit from the increased connectivity that the proposed scheme offers. Engineering and Service Options It is suggested that Leeds and Manchester are the main centres for commuter demand. Two service options have been identified 1) a Leeds to Rose Grove service, allowing interchange to Manchester and a Leeds to Preston service. The proposed link would provide additional strategic journey opportunities. Whilst current patterns of freight operation can be accommodated on existing routes, the proposed scheme would offer new opportunities for freight movement.
Results from Appraisal A WebTAG compliant appraisal has been conducted over a 60 year period. The appraisal is based the assumption of a half hourly service between either Leeds and Rose Grove or Leeds and Preston. The Leeds to Rose Grove option produces the best economic case, due to lower operating costs (although the demand for strategic journeys is less). The central case, the BCR for the scheme is 1.52, assuming the single track option is pursued. Assuming demand is 30% higher than forecasts, benefits
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SELRAP Skipton-Colne Rail Link Phase 1b Needs Assessment and Appraisal
exceed costs, and the BCR exceeds 6.5. For the double track option a positive BCR of 1.3 is found only assuming demand is 30% higher than forecast. A single track scheme therefore offers benefits greater than its costs if a Leeds to Rose Grove service option is pursued, or if a Leeds to Preston service is pursued and the higher level of demand is achieved. An hourly service option has not been examined as it is unlikely that an hourly service would attract significant commuter demand, especially given the proximity of the Airedale Line to many of the areas served by the proposed new route. Additional use of the line beyond local journeys, including long distance and inter-regional services could increase the BCR further. The use of the line for freight may be an additional benefit. There are also wider economic and social arguments for the new service.
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