Carroll College 2017 Exit Poll results

On May 25, 2017, students at Carroll College once again designed and ran an exit poll in Lewis and Clark County. The occasion was a special election for ’s lone seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. This year we had 759 respondents. Thank you to all those who participated! This document summarizes some of the results that we found most interesting.

The little blue swing Back in November 2016, Donald Trump carried Montana by 20 percentage points over Hilary Clinton, and Republican also defeated Democratic challenger Denise Juneau by 16 points. Compared to that, the 2017 Democratic candidate did quite well, though he still lost to Republican by 6 points. How did Quist improve on the results for Democrats in 2016? Our data suggest that he did so in part by appealing to people who had voted for other candidates rather than Trump or Clinton in 2016, or who had not voted at all in November—Quist won about 70% of their votes. Quist also drew about 10% of Trump supporters, whereas Gianforte drew almost no support from those who had voted for Clinton. The columns in Figure 1 show how people who voted for Clinton, Others/Nobody or Trump in 2016 cast their votes for the 2017 special election. Blue shows the percentage that went to the Quist in 2017, orange shows the share that went to Libertarian Mark Wicks, and Red the share that went to Gianforte.

Figure 1. 2017 vote by 2016 presidential choice

Gianforte

Wicks

Quist Percent of votes going to... of votes Percent 0 20 40 60 80 100 Clinton OtherNone Trump 2016 Presidential choice

Carroll College exit poll results summary, May 2017 1 Overall, Figure 1 shows low rates of crossover between the main parties, suggesting that Quist did well mainly thanks to relatively high Democratic turnout, but this was not sufficient for a win given Montana’s rather Republican electorate.

Faith in democracy Nationwide, the 2016 election came as something of a surprise, since polls predicted a victory for Clinton. On Election Day in November we asked, “How much confidence do you have in the American people in making judgments about the issues facing our country?” We found that Democrats were much more confident than Republicans. But was this merely because they expected their candidate to win? In order to test this idea, we included the same question on the 2017 survey. Figure 2 shows our results, for both 2016 and 2017. We see a clear partisan flip. Whereas in the run-up to the 2016 election 58% of Democrats said that they had “Quite a bit” or “A great deal” of confidence in their fellow citizens, only 38% of Republicans gave the same answers. But in 2017 the results were reversed. With President Trump in office and Gianforte widely expected to win in Montana, 54% of Republicans expressed confidence in the political judgment of Americans, compared to 38% of Democrats. 2016 Confidence in the voters 2017 Confidence in the voters

Democrats Republicans

Republicans Democrats % Quite a bit/A great deal of confidence % Quite a bit/A great deal of confidence 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Faith in democratic institutions Another theme in the run-up to the 2016 election was then-candidate Trump’s claims that “voter fraud” might rob him of victory.1 Back in November we tested whether this rhetoric was affecting voters. Such claims might have made Republicans skeptical and might also have Democrats more insistent that everything was correct (in a display of “negative partisanship”). In order to test this idea, and

1 See, e.g. http://www.factcheck.org/2016/10/trumps-bogus-voter-fraud-claims/

Carroll College exit poll results summary, May 2017 2 to see how views have changed since the presidential election, on both surveys we asked, “How much confidence do you have that the vote you cast today will be counted fairly?” Figure 3 shows the results from both 2016 and 2017. We see that as they went to the polls in November, 25% of Republicans had little or no faith that their votes would be counted fairly. This is a troubling result. By the time of the 2017 special election, however, this distrust had dissipated. Now, only around 7% of Republicans have this fear, which is similar to the low rate among Democrats. In this case we see no sign that Democrats became more worried about fraud in the electoral system, despite the surprise victory of President Trump. 2016 confidence in vote count 2017 confidence in vote count

Republicans % Little/No confidence % Little/No confidence Republicans Democrats Democrats 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Thanks again! You can find a copy of the 2017 survey on the following page. We will continue working with the data over the summer and fall. Please contact Dr. Alex Street ([email protected]) if you have any questions. And thank you once more to all those who answered the survey to help us with our research!

Carroll College exit poll results summary, May 2017 3 Carroll College 2017 Exit Poll

You are invited to participate in research designed by Carroll College students on local and national politics. Participation is voluntary and you can choose not to answer any question. The poll is anonymous. Your participation implies consent that your answers will be used for research purposes only. Thank you for your help!

1. For whom did you vote today? 6. How much confidence do you have in the

U.S. House of Representatives American people in making judgments about the issues facing our country? ¨ Rob Quist, Democrat ¨ Mark Wicks, Libertarian ¨ A great deal ¨ Greg Gianforte, Republican ¨ Quite a bit ¨ Only a little 2. If you were able to vote in the November ¨ None at all

2016 elections, how did you vote?

7. How much confidence do you have that the U.S. President vote you cast today will be counted fairly?

¨ Hillary Clinton, Democrat ¨ A great deal ¨ Donald Trump, Republican ¨ Quite a bit ¨ Other ¨ Only a little ¨ Did not vote ¨ None at all

Montana Governor

¨ Steve Bullock, Democrat 8. How important is it for you that politicians ¨ reflect the values of rural America? Greg Gianforte, Republican ¨ Other / did not vote ¨ Very important ¨ Somewhat important 3. No matter how you voted today, on most ¨ Not so important political matters do you consider yourself: ¨ Not at all important

¨ Liberal

¨ Moderate 9. What is the highest level of education you ¨ Conservative have completed?

¨ Did not complete high school 4. Regardless of how you voted today, do you ¨ High school graduate/GED usually think of yourself as a: ¨ Some college/Associate’s degree ¨ Democrat ¨ Bachelor’s degree ¨ Independent ¨ Post-graduate degree ¨ Republican

¨ No preference 10. In what year were you born?

5. Generally speaking, would you say that ______(year)

most people can be trusted, or that you can’t 11. Are you: be too careful in dealing with people?

¨ Most people can be trusted ¨ Female ¨ You can’t be too careful ¨ Male

Do you have questions? Email Prof. Alex Street ([email protected]) or call 406 447 4331.