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UNIVERSITY OF ZAGREB INTERDISCIPLINARY POSTGRADUATE DOCTORAL STUDY “ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT” Vladimir Kalinski ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE UNTIL THE END OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY WITH SPECIAL EMPHASIS ON THE CROATIAN COAST AND TOURISM – IMPACTS, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATIONS DOCTORAL THESIS Zagreb, 2013 UNIVERSITY OF ZAGREB INTERDISCIPLINARY POSTGRADUATE DOCTORAL STUDY “ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT” Vladimir Kalinski ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE UNTIL THE END OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY WITH SPECIAL EMPHASIS ON THE CROATIAN COAST AND TOURISM – IMPACTS, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATIONS DOCTORAL THESIS Supervisor: Esad Prohić, PhD, Full Professor Zagreb, 2013 SVEUČILIŠTE U ZAGREBU SVEUČILIŠNI INTERDISCIPLINARNI POSLIJEDIPLOMSKI DOKTORSKI STUDIJ “UPRAVLJANJE OKOLIŠEM” Vladimir Kalinski PROCJENA KLIMATSKIH PROMJENA DO KRAJA XXI. STOLJEĆA S POSEBNIM OSVRTOM NA HRVATSKU OBALU I TURIZAM – UTJECAJI, RANJIVOSTI I PRILAGODBE DOKTORSKI RAD Mentor: Prof. dr.sc. Esad Prohić Zagreb, 2013. BASIC DOCUMENTATION CARD University of Zagreb Doctoral thesis Interdisciplinary Postgraduate Doctoral Study “Environmental Management” Scientific area: Natural Sciences Scientific field: Interdisciplinary Natural Sciences Branch: Environmental Science UDK: 551.583(497.5)/551.581.1:(043.3): ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE UNTIL THE END OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY WITH SPECIAL EMPHASIS ON THE CROATIAN COAST AND TOURISM – IMPACTS, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATIONS Vladimir Kalinski, MSc. Thesis performed at: University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia. Supervisor: Esad Prohić, PhD, Full Professor, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb Short abstract: Using ModelE, reliability of modern climate models was analysed by comparing observed versus simulated surface temperatures and precipitation for the period 1901-2011 and 1901- 2000, respectively. Global surface temperature and precipitation were projected for the end of century. Projections of several global and regional models were analysed in order to get surface temperature and precipitation values for Croatia for the period 2070-2100. According to A2 climate scenario, a rise in temperature is projected for all seasons in Croatia, while a decrease of precipitation is expected for all seasons except winter. Snow cover cannot be projected with certainty. More frequent occurrences and intense severity of extreme weather events is certain. After IPCC projections, mean sea level is expected to rise. Impacts on and vulnerability of Croatian coastal area and tourism sector were analysed and number of “no-regret” adaptation measures have been suggested, as well as a new methodology for determination of vulnerability potential. Number of pages: 258; Number of figures: 76; Number of tables: 11; Number of references: 292; Number of annexes: 2. Original in: English Key words: climate change | climate simulations | Croatia | coastal area | tourism | impacts | vulnerability | adaptation. Thesis accepted: February 2013; Thesis defended: 14 March 2013. Reviewers: 1. Mladen Juračić, Fellow of the Croatian Academy of Sciences and Arts; Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb 2. Čedo Branković, PhD; Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb 3. Natalija Koprivanac, PhD, Full Professor; Faculty of Chemical Engineering and Technology, University of Zagreb Substitute: Maša Surić, PhD, Assistant Professor; Department of Geography, University of Zadar Thesis deposited in: National and University Library in Zagreb, Hrvatske brat. zajed. 4; University of Zagreb, Trg maršala Tita 14; Centre for postgraduate studies, Zvonimirova 8, Zagreb. IV TEMELJNA DOKUMENTACIJSKA KARTICA Sveučilište u Zagrebu Doktorski rad Sveučilišni interdisciplinarni poslijediplomski doktorski studij “Upravljanje okolišem” Znanstveno područje: Prirodne znanosti Znanstveno polje: Interdisciplinarne prirodne znanosti Grana: Znanost o okolišu UDK: 551.583(497.5)/551.581.1:(043.3): PROCJENA KLIMATSKIH PROMJENA DO KRAJA XXI. STOLJEĆA S POSEBNIM OSVRTOM NA HRVATSKU OBALU I TURIZAM – UTJECAJI, RANJIVOSTI I PRILAGODBE Mr.sc. Vladimir Kalinski Rad je izrađen na: Sveučilište u Zagrebu, Centar za poslijediplomske studije, Zvonimirova 8, Zagreb. Mentor: Dr.sc. Esad Prohić, red.prof. PMF-a, Sveučilište u Zagrebu, Zagreb Kratki sažetak Doktorskog rada: Koristeći ModelE analizirana je vjerodostojnost modernih klimatskih modela usporedbom opaženih i simuliranih globalnih vrijednosti površinskih temperatura u periodu 1901-2011, te oborina u periodu 1901-2000. Zatim je izvršena projekcija globalnih površinskih temperatura i oborina za kraj stoljeća. Analizirane su i projekcije više klimatskih globalnih i regionalnih modela za period 2070-2100, s naglaskom na područje Hrvatske. Prema klimatskom scenariju A2 u Hrvatskoj će doći do porasta temperature u svim godišnjim dobima, a smanjenja oborina u svim sezonama osim zime. Snježni pokrivač nije predvidljiv sa sigurnošću. Izvjesna je i veća učestalost i jačina ekstremnih vremenskih prilika. Prema projekcijama IPCC-a očekuje se i porast srednje razine mora. Obrađeni su mogući utjecaji i ranjivosti hrvatskog obalnog područja i sektora turizma te je predložen niz tzv. neupitnih mjera prilagodbe. Predložena je i nova metoda za određivanja potencijala ranjivosti na klimatske promjene. Broj stranica 258; Broj slika: 76; Broj tablica: 11; Broj literaturnih navoda: 292; Broj priloga: 2 Jezik izvornika: engleski Ključne riječi: klimatske promjene | klimatsko modeliranje | Hrvatska | obalno područje | turizam | utjecaji | ranjivosti | prilagodbe. Tema odobrena: veljača, 2013; Datum obrane: 14. ožujak, 2013. Stručno povjerenstvo za obranu: 1. Akademik Mladen Juračić, PMF, Sveučilište u Zagrebu 2. Dr.sc. Čedo Branković, Državni hidrometeorološki zavod, Zagreb 3. Dr.sc. Natalija Koprivanac, red.prof. FKIT-a, Sveučilište u Zagrebu Zamjena: Dr.sc. Maša Surić, izv.prof., Sveučilište u Zadru Rad je pohranjen u: Nacionalnoj i sveučilišnoj knjižnici u Zagrebu, Hrvatske bratske zajednice bb; Sveučilištu u Zagrebu, Trg maršala Tita 14; Centru za poslijediplomske studije, Zvonimirova 8, Zagreb. V ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This dissertation would not have been possible without the guidance and help of several individuals who in one way or another contributed and extended their valuable assistance in the preparation and completion of this study: I would like to show gratitude to my supervisor Prof. Esad Prohić, PhD, for his valuable guidance and support throughout my dissertation. Despite the distance (Iran-Thailand, Iran- Croatia), he has thoroughly e-mailed the information I needed. To Mladen Juračić, Fellow of the Croatian Academy of Sciences and Arts, who spent a lot of his valuable time in discussion on various dissertation topics and has been my inspiration to pass all the obstacles in the completion this research work. Čedo Branković, PhD, for his indispensable help in acquiring knowledge about climate models that I greatly needed, but also for offering me a circumstance to do field research under auspice of the international CLIM-RUN project which gave me extremely valuable opportunity to meet and talk to stakeholders, representatives of business and private sector alike. Prof. Natalija Koprivanac, PhD, Head of the Interdisciplinary Postgraduate Doctoral Study “Environmental Management” (EMS), Ivana Grčić, PhD, Executive Secretary of the EMS, and Ms. Ana Fruk from the Centre for Postgraduate Study, for their kind concern and consideration regarding my academic requirements. None of my research would have been possible without UNDP Croatia who initially appointed me few years ago to research relations of future climate on the Croatian coast and tourism sector. Many of initial research and texts have been heavily influenced, edited and improved by number of dear colleagues to whom I want to express gratitude, especially Ms. Sandra Vlašić, the Head of Environment Programme, on overall support and help, Mr. Seth Landau on very constructive text editing, guidance and discussions on research topics and beyond, Dr. Mac Callaway on valuable inputs regarding economic impacts and models; Pradeep Kurukulasuriya, PhD, on support to continue with my PhD programme when will was low and doubts were strong. Also thanks Ms. Louisa Vinton, UNDP Croatia Resident Representative, for allowing me to use in my dissertation research material I’ve produced for UNDP. Thanks Mr. Dubravko Narandžić and Mr. Luka Lugarić on IT help. I thank the rest of many other colleagues in UNDP who I did not name here but their support and friendship was too much appreciated. I have been using National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) software for global climate analysis and would like to thank James E. Hansen, PhD, chief scientist for allowing scientists worldwide for using it. But also, I want to thank Reto A. Ruedy, PhD, for ModelE insights that he gave me and Robert B. Schmunk, PhD, for valued last minute software support. Last but not least, my dear wife Dessy for her patience and support during long “PhD years”, and my parents Ivan and Kata, brothers Dragutin and Marijan and my sister Štefica who have always been there when I needed them. This work has been especially dedicated to those who will live in the future which I was trying to assess – my kids, Margaret Louisa (who fell asleep without a bedtime story so many times waiting for me to finish work) and little Oliver Gabriel (who kept testing my daytime energy limits after a night-long work). Be gentle with Earth and, hopefully, the climate in the future will be gentle with you!
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