BTI 2012 Asia and Oceania
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Asia and Oceania | 119 Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan Cambodia China India Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Nepal North Korea Pakistan Papua New GuineaPhilippines Singapore South Korea Sri Lanka Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Political transformation Economic transformation Transformation management NORTH Asia and Oceania KOREA CHINA SOUTH AFGHANISTAN KOREA NEPAL BHUTAN PAKISTAN Puncturing the myth of LAOS TAIWAN INDIA BANGLADESH THAILAND authoritarian-led growth VIETNAM PHILIPPINES MYANMAR CAMBODIA SRI LANKA The BTI’s largest and most heterogeneous region delivers some striking fi ndings. While many of the MALAYSIA region’s states continue to fall into the gray zone between dictatorship and democracy, the region’s boom economies are driving widespread growth throughout the area. Claims that authoritarian-led SINGAPORE growth models are generally more successful than democratic alternatives are exposed as myths. Even in particularly dynamic countries like China and Vietnam, the advantages of this kind of growth do not INDONESIA PAPUA necessarily compensate for their drawbacks, especially when it comes to transformation management. NEW GUINEA “Asia and Oceania” refers simultaneously see, for example, the phenomenon of “hy- cause the governments of South Korea, Tai- signifi cant defi cits and structural vulnerabil- Nevertheless, these autocracies perform land’s (4.13 points) case, this has resulted in to four diff erent subregions that diff er in bridization” in the political development of wan and China, in particular, have imple- ities in terms of social, regulatory and envi- only moderately well in the BTI 2012. This the country being relegated to the “weak” every respect: Northeast Asia, with the two South- and Southeast Asia. Many countries mented successful adaptive strategies, and ronmental policy. Clearly, a diff erent situa- has to do, on the one hand, with the BTI’s nor- management category. Taiwan, however, has Koreas, the People’s Republic of China, Tai- in this area combine democratic and auto- because the regional infl uence of the Chi- tion holds in North Korea and Myanmar, mative framework. Indeed, one-fourth of the replaced South Korea as regional leader, wan and Japan (which is not examined as a cratic institutions, processes and practices. nese economy has continued unabated, the where the elite continue to plunder their management questions, assessing steering thanks to a gain of 0.59 points, reaching a to- part of the BTI); Southeast Asia, comprising In other words, they remain somewhere be- region as a whole has weathered the global own societies in order to maintain their au- capability and elite consensus, are normative- tal of 7.72. The gains made in the Philip- the 10 member states of the Association of tween dictatorship and democracy – wheth- fi nancial and economic crisis comparatively tocratic rule. The hopelessness of these two ly weighted. On the other hand, it is telling pines (+0.85) are even more palpable and at- Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), of which er showing improvements (Philippines) or well: Sixteen of the 21 economies retained at states’ economic state of aff airs is exceeded that countries like China and Vietnam also test to management performance of at least Brunei is not included in the BTI, as well as suff ering setbacks (Thailand). Throughout least the transformation level of the BTI internationally only by that of Somalia. demonstrate, at best, mediocre performance “moderate” quality. East Timor (also not examined here); South the region, constitutional structures remain 2010. The most prominent example of dy- There are similar problems observed in on “system-neutral” criteria, such as resource Asia, which includes the fi ve states of the underdeveloped, serving primarily to pro- namic economic reform is without doubt transformation management. Without ques- effi ciency or anti-corruption policy – and this Indian subcontinent along with Afghanistan vide security to investments. Even Singa- that of China (+0.36), but Vietnam (+0.25), tion, the “authoritarian development pro- in a region that, with an average management and Sri Lanka; and, fi nally, Oceania and the pore, whose score of six points for the rule Indonesia (+0.43) and India (+0.08) have jects” of China, Vietnam and Singapore have score of 4.70, is placed somewhat behind South Pacifi c islands, of which Papua New of law criterion is strikingly high for a non- also ensured that Asia is today regarded by successfully linked political stability with West and Central Africa. Guinea is represented in the BTI. liberal system, is strictly speaking a “consti- the West as the world’s most dynamic devel- rapid growth. And it is undeniable that, in In Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Distinguishing between these subre- tutional state for elites.” oping region. However, this perception over- countries such as China and Vietnam, the Lanka, Papua New Guinea and Thailand, gions makes analytical sense both in terms A second fi nding relates to the region’s looks a critical fact: Behind their pure growth benefi ts of social and economic moderniza- management performance has deteriorated of transformation theory and practice. We degree of economic interdependency. Be- statistics, these emerging economies show tion are spread broadly across social strata. signifi cantly in the past two years. In Thai- Somalia’s level of diffi culty in managing transformation score: 9.77 | Slovenia’s level of diffi culty in managing transformation score: 1.06 Asia and Oceania | 121 5.32 | Singapore 6.85 | Indonesia 5.00 | Malaysia State of political transformation by subregion, overall and by criterion 9.65 | Taiwan 6.40 | Philippines 4.85 | Thailand 8.70 | South Korea 6.25 | Bangladesh 4.80 | Bhutan 3.82 | Cambodia 8.20 | India 6.10 | Papua New Guinea 3.50 | Vietnam 3.43 | Pakistan Northeast Asia South Asia Southeast Asia 5.60 | Sri Lanka 3.32 | China 5.00 | Nepal 2.83 | Laos 2.75 | Afghanistan z 2.60 | North Korea 1.93 | Myanmar Political transfor- 3 4 2 4 8 6.07 5.15 4.50 Democracies in Defective Highly defective Moderate Hard-line mation, overall consolidation democracies democracies autocracies autocracies Northeast Asia scores considerably better than the other two subregions Stateness 9.4 6.0 7.6 in terms of stateness, the stability of Political transformation democratic institutions and the rule of law. These high scores refl ect the Score 10 to 8 Score < 8 to 6 Score < 6 Score > 4 Score < 4 Political participation 5.4 5.9 3.8 advanced state of transformation z failing state achieved by the region’s democra- cies, Taiwan and South Korea. As in the BTI 2010, Southeast Asia lags – in Rule of law 5.4 4.5 4.1 some cases markedly – behind the other two subregions in four of fi ve political transformation criteria, the Stability of democratic 5.1 4.5 3.0 exception here being stateness. Strong state, weak democracy institutions Asia’s tradition of strong stateness is refl ected in the BTI 2012 fi ndings. Equally evident, however, are problems associated with defi cits in the rule of law, insuffi cient integration capabilities and the instabil- Political and 5.0 4.7 4.0 ity of democratic institutions, in particular. social integration During the period under review, Taiwan ly noteworthy. However, the government fered clear testimony to the depth of Thai- tors remains constrained, as was illustrated by here show an average of 7.4 points. In most of impressively lived up to its reputation as a of President Benigno Aquino III, in offi ce land’s democratic defi cits. Other institutions the violent police response to the mass dem- the region’s countries, the state’s monopoly successful alternative to the mainland’s au- since June 2010, has in truth simply arrested lacking democratic legitimacy, such as those onstrations for electoral reform in July 2011. on the use of force is largely assured, and a thoritarian development model, achieving the ominous developments observed during associated with the monarchy, also have am- Although Myanmar held its fi rst parlia- suffi cient basic administrative structure is in the best-possible score of 10 on 13 of 18 indi- the Macapagal-Arroyo era. With 6.40 points ple opportunity to intervene. As a conse- mentary elections in 20 years in November place. This is in stark contrast to the weak- vidual political transformation questions. (+0.50), the Philippines’ score remains well quence, the BTI 2012 no longer registers the 2010, the country’s electoral process can ness of democratic institutions in the “hy- Asia and Oceania’s second-most developed below that reached in the BTI 2006 (6.95); in- country as a democracy, an assessment that hardly be considered free and fair. Con- brid” regimes and “young” non-consolidated democracy, South Korea, saw its rating fall deed, more than a quarter-century after the remains true despite the July 2011 elections trolled by the Myanmar military, these polls democracies, while in some cases – as in Chi- somewhat as a result of worrying trends ob- end of the Marcos dictatorship, it is clear that and the opposition’s return to government. In in no way fulfilled minimum democratic na, Vietnam and Laos – they are absent alto- served in civil rights and the protection of democracy remains a fragile construct. Hu- Cambodia, the incidence of attacks on dissi- standards. Decision-making power remains gether. The average for this criterion remains the freedom of expression. It received full man rights violations and corruption occur dents and opposition fi gures has decreased. solely and fi rmly in the hands of the gener- a meager 4.0 points. marks in only six individual questions. The with worrisome regularity, and political This trend in fact expresses the system of “cal- als, even though a few noteworthy conces- democratic trio is completed by India, whose power is still in the hands of a small stratum ibrated repression” put in place by the govern- sions were made to the opposition in 2011.