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Development of Water Allocation System for Genale Dawa River Basin Under Climate Change and Future Development Scenarios

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Development of Water Allocation System for Genale Dawa River Basin Under Climate Change and Future Development Scenarios ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY ADDIS ABABA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY SCHOOL OF CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING DEVELOPMENT OF WATER ALLOCATION SYSTEM FOR GENALE DAWA RIVER BASIN UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS A thesis submitted to the School of Graduate Studies in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Civil Engineering. (Major Hydraulic Engineering) By Markos Abiy Hailemichael Advisor Belete Berhanu. (PhD) Addis Ababa University Ethiopia June 2020 ADDIS ABABA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Development of water allocation for Genale Dawa river basin under climate change and future development scenarios A thesis submitted to the school of graduate studies in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in civil engineering. (Major hydraulic engineering) By Markos Abiy Hailemichael Approval by Board of Examiners ----------------------------------------- ----------------- ------ Advisor Signature Date ----------------------------------------- ----------------- ------ Internal Examiner Signature Date ----------------------------------------- ---------------- ------ External Examiner Signature Date ----------------------------------------- ----------------- ------ Chairperson (department of graduate committee) Signature Date CERTIFICATION I, the undersigned, certify that I read the thesis entitled, “Development of water allocation system for Genale Dawa river basin under climate change and future development scenarios" and hereby recommend for acceptance by the Addis Ababa University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Civil Engineering. ------------------------ Belete Birhanu (Ph.D) Advisor II AUTHOR'S DECLARATION I, the undersigned, hereby declare that this thesis entitled, “Development of water allocation system for Genale Dawa river basin under climate change and future development scenarios” is my own work, and that all the sources I have used or quoted have been indicated or acknowledged by means of completed references. ------------------------ Markos Abiy III ACKNOWLEDGMENT My deepest appreciation goes to my Advisor Belete Berhanu (PhD) of Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa Institute of technology school of civil and environmental engineering for his encouragement, advice, support and, his valuable guidance throughout this study and, all his contribution through materials supports. I would like to acknowledge the Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Electricity (MoWIE) particularly hydrology, GIS department, and Library; Oromia Irrigation Developments Authority (OIDA); the Ethiopia Meteorological Service Agency particularly Ato Elias Fesha Climate Research Department and Ato Mulugeta for providing me the relevant data and information required free of payment. And also I would like to thank my school Addis Ababa University Institute of Technology and my sponsor Ethiopian Road Authority ERA for giving me the chance to attend the postgraduate program without these organizations I will not achieve my dream. Lastly my appreciation goes to my family and my special friends and my girl Hana Yabobaria Without your support I will not able to achieve my dream. Thank you for your support and encouragements. IV ABSTRACT Population growth, urbanization, and industrialization are occurring at an ever-increasing phase. These processes result in an increased demand for water in all sectors. Water is not only influenced by human activities, but also by natural factors, such as climate change. It is in the Genale Dawa Basin that the higher percentage of people under the poverty line in the country (NAPA 7).The region is known with subsistence farming and pastoral livelihood facing frequent drought and rainfall declining abruptly and Climate change is expected to worsen the problem of rainfall variability, and associated drought and flood disasters. The objective of this thesis is to model the water resources system to develop a water allocation system for the Genale Dawa river basin under climate change and future development scenarios using a computer-based modeling tool Water Evaluation and Planning System Model (WEAP). Records of hydrology, meteorology, and irrigation water supply for the study area are statistically tested and arranged as an input file source to suit the model. Meteorological and CORDEX Africa RCM 8.5 climatic data were corrected with multi-regression and distribution mapping (DM) method respectively and the two data were also correlated with each other. The model calibration, validation, and its statistical measure were seen and therefore the result shows that it's good and the model can simulate the current and future scenarios. The results of this analysis revealed the study found No quantity of unmet demand in the in reference Scenario from the years 1990 to 2018 for all cumulative demands. Similarly in the coming future Development scenario I Short term analysis period (2019–2030) and long term analysis period (2031–2050) among the total water requirement the unmet Demand for domestic and livestock water demand in each period became 13.72% and 15.72% of the total Water demand . Although for the Climate change scenario II for constant total cumulative water demand of 759.6Mm3 in Short term and long term period 10.97% and 9.48% of the total demand is Unmet in the analysis respectively. And For Scenario III (combination scenario) both the future development and climate change effect on sectional demand are considered and analyzed. Based on the simulation results from the total demand in short term period (2019 – 2030) and long term period (2031- 2050) the total unmet demand is found to be 10.97% and 12.73% of the total demand is Unmet respectively. Key Words: Water Evaluation and Planning System Model (WEAP), CORDEX Africa, Regional Climate Model (RCM), Distribution Mapping (DM) V CERTIFICATION ..................................................................................................................... II ACKNOWLEDGMENT .......................................................................................................... IV ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. V List of Figures .......................................................................................................................... IX List of Table ............................................................................................................................... X LIST OF ABBREVIATION ..................................................................................................... XI 1. INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................................................1 1.1. Background of the study ...............................................................................................1 1.2. Statement of the Problem ..............................................................................................2 1.3. Objectives of the Study .................................................................................................2 1.3.1. General Objective ..................................................................................................2 1.3.2. Specific Objectives ................................................................................................2 1.4. Research Questions .......................................................................................................3 1.5. Significance of the study ...............................................................................................3 1.6. Limitation of the Study .................................................................................................3 1.7. Study Approach ............................................................................................................4 1.8. Thesis Outline ...............................................................................................................4 2. LITERATURE REVIEW ....................................................................................................5 2.1. Climate and Climate Change .........................................................................................5 2.2. Climate Change in Ethiopia...........................................................................................5 2.3. Expected Future Climate Projection of Ethiopia ............................................................6 2.4. Climate Change Impacts on Water Resource and Reservoir...........................................7 2.5. Climate Scenarios .........................................................................................................8 2.6. Water Allocation ......................................................................................................... 10 2.6.1. Water allocation and climate change .................................................................... 11 2.7. Principles and Mechanisms of Water Allocation ......................................................... 11 2.8. Water Demand and Allocation .................................................................................... 12 2.8.1. Allocating water to high priority purposes ............................................................ 12 2.9. Models for Water Allocation ......................................................................................
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